A portfolio change has been posted to the premium site.
LOL stunned silence…
is the CEO resigning at SLW a stock price issue?
Sold my SVM this morning. It is back where it was on 3/1 even though silver is much higher. IIt rallies a little when silver zooms and then drops sharply at the first sign of weakness. I had already sold half thinking to sell the rest and then read this:
SVM on the New York Stock Exchange: This company operates an excellent high-grade silver, lead and zinc mine in China, sporting an operating profit margin of a hefty 67%. So good is it, and so richly valued is it, that the stock has little further upside in my view. It’s already sporting a multiple of 30 times cash flow, and 35 times earnings. AVOID.
Is this expected to go lower or do you suggest we add our powder now?
Thanks for the update Gary. Lighten up a bit on the leverage too.
Bruce: CEO’s resigning is often a stock price issue. Put it this way: The guy may have delayed his retirement had he felt everything was about to get fantastically better. They often get out when something bad is coming, so maybe he is just sensing the D-wave coming soon. I am not saying there is anything wrong with the stock, just that it’s not a great sign, let’s say.
The scary thing is /SI hasn’t even tagged it’s 10 EMA.
Look at those 4 hour bars on SLW and our other favorite miners. Even the Japan crisis didn’t produce that type of massive selling. There’s got to be something brewing behind the scenes to warrant this move. (Major margin increase?)
Sorry all, I am limited here on viewing access to things. So relying on posts to know what is happening. I did see alerts come through my blackberry on price drops, so hopped on to see whats going on. Just checking to see what’s happening. Is this a fake out or the cycle drop we were expecting?
Gold has now just retested the breakout line of 1445, at last. Now it should be free to fly.
Yes, I would think at least 2 days min, but likely next week to add. Gary is GREAT at calling bottoms, let’s see what magic he brings.
Just need to let the dust settle somewhat and step away. Not going to get greedy seeking a bottom, but also need to be patient before jumping back and let it play out. Silver $38 would be a good time to phase in. I would expect to see some big swings and volatility in gold/silver here next few days.
Now way this bull will let you trim at an obvious top and add at an obvious bottom. Worse case we don’t get all of the bottom and we chase a little.
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Again let me caution everyone about technicals here. You aren’t going to be able to chart your way through these corrections.
The market knows what you are watching and it will do what’s required to take you out of your positions based on breaking technical levels.
Just follow the cycles and you will do fine.
40 EMA on SLW has held during intermediate cycle runs recently.
Thanks for your words of wisdom about waiting even though technical targets for gold on the downside were hit.
Thanks Poly for an answer on what’s happening now. It’s horrible not having decent internet access for the next 6 weeks, sometimes it takes me an hour just to get on. So have to keep watch close durinng these times to messages as to what is happening so I know whether to get on or not.
High volume on gold and silver. The drops just now *might* have been all the low we will get.
I’m contemplating a buy in this zone with a small stop.
well, not sure if that’s a bottom but boy howdy did the buyers step in. i’d have to see /GC close below 1438 on the hourly before i start thinking the jig is up.
doubled my DGP position on the way down– too early of course but i’ve about recovered.
Gary, posted this on the previous post….
What are the chances we are seeing a slightly stretched dollar cycle here and instead of seeing the low on day 11 (3/22) of the last cycle we are actually seeing the low on day 26?
In addition to the ceo news at slw, the annual report is out too. Haven’t looked at it yet, but maybe there a dark cloud or two there..??..
Thanks, Poly and Gary. Sometimes the waiting is the hardest part.
Dark cloud in their annual report? Not likely. Silver an decades highs and they are locked in at insanely low prices.
JayThe problem is some of those contracts are not “locked” and you can bet that newer ones won’t be as advantagous as the old.
Jay: Might their locked in great prices be expiring? Maybe their contracts at those prices are mostly coming due? It’s sure acting like something is amiss. Like SVM it’s all the way back to 3/1 prices with SLV much higher…?
I guess you are assuming the dollar is putting in a low today.
It looks like two cycles to me. The bounce was pretty strong out of the Mar. 22 bottom.
Thanks again Poly for posting what was going on. whewww, just on pins and needles worried having limited access. thanks 🙂
At some point in time, SLW’s existing contracts will expire & will need to be re-negotiated. I would imagine that would raise their cost structure substantially and hit profit margins.
I am not sure when this would happen, but this could be a major event.
Will be great if somebody familiar with this can comment.
I hope it is not in near future since I have a substantial holding in SLW.
We’ve lost much of the clarity of previous weeks on this board with this decline. Everyone on the board seems to be looking for a swing bottom, while Gary has been waiting for the swing top to form.
The lack of strength this morning with a weak dollar was very disappointing and discomforting. I’m really not sure what to expect at this point, so perhaps cash is the best resort for the time being.
If the market can close here we will get a VTO signal & a bollinger band crash trade.
Peter: I think things are unfolding just right. We are into the timing band for a low on gold, and gold is obliging by dropping. We probably have two days to a week left in the dip, then a swing low, then resumed rally. Gary feels the dollar has been feeling the dollar has no bottomed quite yet for a bounce, but is not sure. [Someone correct me if I am wrong] If you are confused you probably are not a subscriber and are not reading the nightly reports. YOu should subscribe. If you go off the board and make one error you will have lost several years worth of subscriptions—not worth it.
If silver breaks 39.80, it can go much lower…Id be adding at 38.50, if we get there.
I agree with DG, anyone who seems confused, simply needs to go back and read the nightly reports. Gary makes it very clear.If you are not a subscriber, then I recommend it.
Considering the move in gold, Silver has held up well. Nobody knows when or where the bottom will form or if a top is even in place yet. Tops are hard to identify. That’s the beauty of the game, we just need to play the probabilities and be aware of the alternative outcomes. No need to stress the rest.
I think Gary’s cycle work has demonstrated a very high success rate with identifying cycle lows, that should be the high probability play.
INCREASES SILVER FUTURES by 50%; Stop near low about 1hr ago.
I know several of the blogs I read SLW has been the poster child for playing silver. I would guess many, many weak hands are being washed out of this right now. Could there be some news with new CEO, contracts coming due, etc? I’m not sure, but I’m not going to sell into this weakness. The “tell” would be when PMs start to rally again and SLW underperforms.
$38.50 is a good number. That April 4th gap up on Monday morning is a good target, IMO.
If I remember correctly most of SLW contracts are fairly long. I doubt any are expiring already.
This is just a volatile sector. It tends to head to the lower Bollinger band at cycle lows.
At least let people know your advice was taken from the Sovereign Man regarding SVM.
I haven’t done any selling or buying as yet. Just another day to sit tight until we get to the levels I mentioned on the last thread, IMO.
Dollar at day’s high. My dollar short-term bottom call is still in play. A rallying dollar would drive PM’s into the daily cycle low within the next week. We’ll see what happens. I sold about half my silver holdings so have a mountain of cash to deploy. I suspect I will go pure AGQ this next leg as some of the “good” names are not acting well at all.
very close to offload my DUG…for once that something works in 24 hours!!
No worries fellow longs, a bull market always gives the longs another chance to exit into strength. Selling here is a mistake, even if we do go lower before resuming up movement.
Sorry SB. I don’t know that site so was just passing it on for others to examine think about. If I know the guy and think the author’s name adds any value, I say who. Maybe I should do that anyway. Think there is anything to what he says? Is he smart?
Just got my buy signal on AG ( but maybe temporary…like a bounce)
So I bought back 1/2 the position I sold at $26
F.W.I.W.—Just opinion. I Trade and will trade accordingly. Follow Gary,he WILL identify the LOW when the swing forms!!
My “GUESS” on this move(from past experience) …the miners lead the way down, They went yesterday on Huge volume, Metals were tame…so stocks will bottom first and lead the way up.
This is MASSIVE volume down (daily)for some miners (AG, at this rate, could have close to 8 million! SLV, EXK…Very high volume)…
So I think we have sold off heavy , eventually get a bounce, then retest the lows. Could be a bounce mid day or tomorrow…then a last selloff “get out while the getting good” feeling, but it’ll dry up volume wise and retest the bottoms.
EXK, AG ETC are near 20sma’s. A bounce and light volume retest would have me buying.
JUST MY OPINION, Not a recommendation of any sort.
time to close computer & wait for 2 days.
Thanks guys. I am a sub, albeit pretty recently. It’s not so much that I’m confused; I just missed the recent top that was put in. The miners really started tanking well before silver futs, and I didn’t react to that divergence.
I also wasn’t expecting a top to be put in before the dollar put in a bottom. Now with the dollar sure to have a deadcat bounce of a couple weeks coming, it’s difficult for me to see strength in the metals for a while.
Emotionally, Friday felt like a top, but I held thinking we had a couple days left before a top was put in. Happened pretty abruptly, but that’s typically the case.
I do not have super confidence that this is a low in silver and my buy will hold, but it is a reasonable trade that I’m willing to risk.
I think his advice on moving abroad is somewhat useful, and he’s a believer in metals long as a hedge against fiat, but other than that I can’t say his investment advice would suit full-timers like us.
His name is Simon Black and people can sign up for a e-mail newlsetter if they go to his Sovereign Man site. I haven’t gone further than to read his updates. 🙂
He also hates SLV, and by definition would have to hate AGQ, even if he didn’t mention it.
Looks like the dollar is doing what you thought it would. Last hour it’s moved up pretty fast.
SB, the reason why some hate SLV is because of rumors of fraud (lower or lack there of the physical in storage). AGQ however is a play on futures, and thus unrelated to why SLV is disliked.
Gary, I cannot view the premium site and I am a subscriber. What are the details in the portfolio change?
Nah TZ..Too early..But you got a stopp so you can try..
Nice calls from you lately..
click on the lost password link and reset your password.
Aaa saw now that you stopped out..sry!
PC: I get lots of signals and use my judgement as to which are the best ones. For the sake of the board I try to cherry pick, so hopefully my batting average on the posted ones will wind up being pretty good.
Works now, thx Gary!
Silver can go all the way down to 39.40 and still not break the TL drawn off the 3/16 and 4/1 lows.
I’m not as concerned about further downside from these levels, so much as that when a clobbering like this takes place, it usually takes some time for the bull to resume with conviction.
Once people get spanked, it takes them awhile to come back to the party. 🙂
If I were to buy some SLV options at the daily low, would you recomment May or July?
That was a call on the dollar actually made last Friday, right? sweet call.
All this worry over Wheaton… why not peruse their website for your contractual answer? They are locked into these contracts for YEARS, not months! This is why it is such a beauty, and why the price shall, Pheonix-like, rise again!
May options are too close. July options are better.
If SLW was down 4-5% while the other silver miners were green, then yes, I would be hunting for some news that may be driving that action. But every miner is getting murdered…SLW is just one of those today.
sorry DG to ask for your help again, but do you think that the EUR/USD could see 1.4240 ish soon?I was trying a short since yesterday….
Thx for your comment about SLW touching the lower BB on daily cycle lows – I hadn’t realized that before you mentioned it. Looking at its chart shows that is precisely what occurs.
kmisakSo you don’t think it’s a little risky to be using the corporate websit for you warm fuzzy?
I’ll take your word for it b/c I’m not involved in either so it won’t affect me. I know some don’t like “paper silver”, whether it’s futures, SLV, or GLD but you could be right about Sovereign Man. As I said above, I don’t really give him much attention.
Alrighty then, looking at last night, I didn’t expect a Demark perfected DAILY BUY setup for the Dollar, but there it is, lower low today in terms of DXY. So, 1-4 day DXY upside reaction, starting tomorrow through Monday. Also, we are in an overlapping sequential Daily Buy that recorded last week – good through the end of next week. And we reached the 74.90 daily exhaustion, so this bounce in DXY should be fairly strong.Kevin Depew also stated that Silver on the DAILY recorded a sell setup yesterday, so Tuesday-Friday for that. and that we also completed the minimum requirement for D-Wave 5 up which I pointed out the last few days.In terms of S & P, it looks like the range will be a very tight one between 1312.40 downside and 1329.52 upside unless one of those levels becomes qualified, as it flirted with the upside qualification last week. I will keep you guys posted.
Lost 0.6% net worth on my trade. Will resume same strategy at next lower level (which now seems likely).
thanks Coolkevs !
Its like learning a foreign language at times, but I’m starting to get it .
keep posting 🙂
I’m gone for the day, have a good one everyone!
sorry for my double texts, I don’t know why it is doing that… too much caffeine, I guess
It would be pretty unusual to have two short dollar cycles in a row.
I really doubt this will be the cycle low right here.
Alright I’m off to the rocks.
GDX emulates HUI?
Have fun, G.
Can you reiterate the “minimum requirement for D-Wave 5 up” and what is the “5” there? Sorry for the trouble, thank you
Around what range will the swing low be? Roughly…
Sophia. This is a risky trade. It is a little bit like picking up nickels in front of a steam roller. I posted it because we all have interest in the dollar because of the PM correlation. I took a small position and may just get out at any moment. Especially since you’re broker is sometimes out, and Gary is arguing with me about it, I’d pass on it were I you. Gary and I are about 50-50 when we disagree on a short term movement, so not great odds.
GDX components are very similar to the HUI’s. Large cap gold miners mostly.
If Gary was not off climbing rocks, he would say “my crystal ball is broken, so it’s hard for me to tell you where that swing low will take place”
So who’s going to nibble on some AG here?
Thanks Jayhawk, just wanted to get a rough idea with support and whatnot.
Japan nuclear disaster now as serious as Chernobyl accident.
Japan Nuclear Alert Level Raised>
Hi, Gary, With QE2 ending in June, and Fed Policy meeting at April27, why you think the C wave will last to June? Could Dollar start to moving up soon, and D wave starts this month?
My prediction is the 1430 area. 🙂
Scary drop on AG, falling knife here…I was looking at the upper 18’s or low 19’s Eric?
ALEX said he was adding some today, but his style is different.
I picked up a few July 20 call options at 3.2. Simply getting my feet wet.
got it DG ! will exit fast…
OK (still here, leaving NOW,I promise) Possible LONGTERM AG ( see wkly chart)
Bought Ag at $20.60…If it bounces 50% from its $6+ drop ,it could bounce to $23 area, ( if on light volume = sell…A-B-C- down would be to then add another $6 drop off of $23…A-B-C-D .That gives you the gap at $17…and on a wkly chart , the best buy ever!!! 🙂
My buy today is based on selling at $26 , in here for a bounce ..or more, really have to see how it plays out.
OUT 4 THE DAY 🙂
Just re-read that…hard to understand what I meant…sorry
Your timing on the last cycle low was impressive. If you add dry powder this time you are going to add to NUGT right as opposed to AGQ? Are you thinking about options this time?
One more crushing day to the downside tomorrow ought to be enough. 🙂
Dollar/euro trade has worked off its excesses without moving. I will be out at day’s end unless dollar is up at least modestly by the close.
So if gold is putting in a bottom now, but the dollar still has a little ways to go, what does that say about the near term prospects for gold? If the dollar puts in it’s bottom next week we could see extended weakness in gold.
I won’t be using options. I’ll see what holds up the best once it looks like we’ve washed out, and add there.
It could be any of the usual names, but I want to see the miner indexes get oversold first. My inclination is to focus on NUGT, but that might change.
I’ll post what I’m buying and when.
DG, it is true that it is pretty impressive how the USD doesn’t rally a bit despite all the selloff in stocks and commodities…they are evn buying Treasuries for goodness sake!
Look at the volume of selling in AG over the last 5 days vs EXK or MVG.
Looks like massive amounts of selling in AG relative to the previous (3 months) buying volume. Not sure what Alex is seeing, he is a better trader than I, but AG looks sick if you ask me.
I might even focus on some individual miners now that the froth is gone. I can’t imagine managements wanting to raise capital at stock prices 20% below their levels last week.
We’ll see, but I’ll post when I do. 🙂
Two big down days, if we aren’t done for this season I don’t think we should get much lower than this…other then sideways consolidation. Reason I say that is I don’t think it’s realistic to expect silver to correct $6 as Gary suggested to 35/36$ then rise by more than a third to $50 by late may/early June. /jmo
Based on the simple channel drawn off the Jan and Mar lows, SVM could be a buy here. It’s touching that lower channel line now. I would expect at least a bounce here. However, if it does break that channel line, next stop could be 12.00, the March low.
FWIW, I don’t see GLD or SLV or any individual miners on the BoW list today. Also do not see GDXJ. I do see GDX, but only 6.8 million.
“Two big down days”
Not exactly big, Silver is down just $1.70, good part of it over night! It’s up $16 in 60 days and up $8 this cycle alone.
“I don’t think it’s realistic to expect silver to correct $6 as Gary suggested to 35/36$ then rise by more than a third to $50 by late may/early June.”
I agree $6 is a bit much, but a 35% final daily cycle rise (previous C-Tops did more!) from $37 gets you $50.
Well, this is going to be interesting… DX is having trouble getting a rally going, and Gary thinks it’s too early for a daily cycle low. So we just might have the dollar continue lower.
If that happens, what will PM’s do? It’s late in their daily cycle and we sure had a large volume reversal in PM etf’s and miners. Will they keep going down as the dollar continues drifting lower…?
Pretty strong support for silver at 40$, at least it seems that way…
nice slam on the market and 1450 is holding on gold..
2 more weeks at this +-25 dollar range and yahoo $1500
sell me your metals and your equities today.. what a gift
level to watch is 75.3 on the US dollar index. this is when i would start to lighten so far so good.
I like DG’s idea of going all AGQ for this daily cycle of the C-wave
also TZ provided evidence of silver outperforming miners at the end of the c-wave
Thanks Gary and ddn3f.
Would you be typically buying back in with AGQ in steps or do you find a good spot (once swing low is in) and come in with one big order?
I will be all in AGQ when the time comes as well! ( when I mean all, I mean my meager account…:-))
DG,I remember the last time you got a buy signal in the USD…gold and the miners got trashed right after you got that signal
Thank you for posting the buy signal on the USD again…the miners & gold getting hit hard again
This time, I was one step ahead of the game…thanks to you
I’m not smart (or lucky) enough to time the short moves in the daily cycle so I’m staying 100% invested. But I have been rebalancing my portfolio for the stretch run. I have been selling shares of my silver miners and SLW today and the past couple of days and immediately buying more AGQ. I’m now 65% in AGQ (I know Gary was there all along, but it took me awhile to come around to his way of thinking).
AGQ seems to offer most of the upside potential of the silver miners without the big downside corrections like we have seen today. Glad I got out of most of my AG at $24.70.
…at ease, if you are there, would you send me an email? I’m at [email protected]
Sold my April 160 OIH puts and bought May calls. May be early though.
Re: VTO and bollinger band crash trades.
I found a post by Gary from 2007 regarding this, but am having trouble figuring out what it means. I think it is a bullish signal. Do you buy immediately once the pattern is noted or is there a waiting period where additional decreases in stock price can be expected? I exited most positions yesterday morning and am interested in developing a calculated reentry strategy.
Any help is appreciated.
Added a bit of SLW and SLV calls today, if it goes down further in the next couple of days before the Big-C, I’ll top off and wait.
Looking hard at June 45 SLW Calls. My BOW kind of day.
Those are in the Premium site.
Hotrod: Depends on my year’s profitability. If I am flat I will enter slowly and carefully. As I am way ahead this year I will probably buy the AGQ I plan on all at once this time. I hate being in the hole and am more careful when that’s a risk. I doubt AGQ will open down 100 points the day after I buy so I ought to be o.k. this time, eh? 😉
I like SPY here, going to pick some up, earnings season should be fine again.
It’s getting over sold and on it’s 50dma, which besides the recent IT low has provided fantastic support. Uptrend still in tack.
Great. Thanks Le Fou.
Wish I got in earlier but 2.89 was filled. SLW 45 call June.
Thanks a lot. I as well lean more towards the one big trade.
You’ll be waiting for confirmation of a swing low, correct?
With regards to the tax implications for Canadian residents trading in U.S. funds on a US exchange, I just phoned TDwaterhouse and the rep. told me that the W-8 form is needed only when dividend income is paid. The IRS will withhold taxes on dividend income and by filling out the W-8 form they will release the taxes because our brokerage accounts are in Canada.
All other transactions, whether it be stocks or options, have zero US tax implication due to our accounts not being in the US, and no forms need to be filled out. Does this seem right to you?
My Game Plan
Let’s see if the market obliges.
If precious metals continue this correction for the next 2 to 5 days, I will add appx 15% to my holdings on a daily swing low. Then, on a breakout in Gold above current highs I will add another 15%.
This will bring my portfolio from 92% invested to appx 122% invested for the final daily cycle of the C-Wave.
If the market bounces out of the current correction for several days and reverses down below the low of this correction, I will get stopped out.
If the market bounces tomorrow, I will have to reassess, and will look to Gary for his take to see how he reads things. As a daily cycle bottom in just two days would feel less secure to me. I would probably halve the amount of positions I add, and watch things develop to let a new plan gel.
Hoping for a little deeper correction to be sure the daily cycle bottom is in and sentiment has been sufficiently cleansed.
Silver is acting really strong, there might be a call for a margin raise soon if it keeps holding like this 🙂
You know your are a member of a good advisory service when its members spend much of their time discussing tax forms! lol
I’m in the US so don’t know for sure, but as I understand it a foreign account (with W-8BEN) owes tax on dividends but not capital gains or short term trading profits.
Just income (like dividends and distributions) are taxed, as foreigners have to pay income tax in their respective countries. I’m not a tax professional, so check in to it yourselves to be sure, but that is how I understand it.
Here’s my plan:
If we go lower, I’ll wait until metals and miners stabilize (hopefully together), then look to add.
If we go higher from here, I’ll stick with what I have and not make any new buys but keep everything.
It looks to me like the first option is more likely, but I’m flexible.
Rob L,“The form, issued by the Internal Revenue Service, establishes that one is a non-resident alien or foreign corporation, to avoid or reduce tax withholding from U.S. source income, such as rents from U.S. property, interest on U.S. bank deposits or dividends paid by U.S. corporations.”
That is correct. I might have made it sound like it was for gains as well, but it’s for dividends. I have held stocks that have paid dividends in the past. Of course, it doesn’t apply to calls.
Hot Rod: I usually do not wait for the swing low, but buy either off my tape reading or during a but of frantic selling. The swing low confirms that the bottom was in, but if we are in the timing band for a low, mild panic is too juicy to resist. Just my style. Swing low is a bit safer but I believe not necessary this time as things are falling into place well. And a swing low can be reversed by a drop and does not prove a bottom is in anyway.
Thanks, Shalom Bernanke
Thanks. Keep me posted when you see signs to make a move.
I will post if I do anything other than follow Gary’s “time to buy” lead.
Poly: I like your idea and just bought some SPY myself.
I want to thank SB, DG, Alex, Poly and all the other experienced traders for posting here so that us newbies can follow along and learn from the pros.
Thanks for sharing!
it feels so good not to be over leveraged for once. I could care less if the price drops by 2 or 4 dollars on silver.
GDXJ is showing a gap at 37.
Did Gary not mention this would be a severe correction?
I agree with DG, swing low is nice confirmation when the timing band is exhausted. But like to sell a little early at the top and get back in right around the height of the panic. Easier picking, IMO, when they are running for cover.
SIL has a nice gap at 26.
Poly/DG,Is this just a minor drop before a ride higher again, or is this the big drop before blast off to the silver moon? What are your opinions and why? What will you look for to know when to add again? I pulled everything out early yesterday and would like to know what to look for when I should jump in again.Thanks
Thanks for the shout out “Gottahaveit” but just an FYI, I am very far from a pro and I’m also not a full time trader, so please just take whatever I post as such.
Just trying to contribute to the forum and share idea’s on how I see or interpret the action.
Eamonn: A minor drop. The bottoms come in timing bands which is the basis for Gary’s cycle work. We don’t really have time for a serious drop here and we certainly shouldn’t drop below the prior low of $1410. Gary will add when a swing low is formed and I will add the moment I am too scared to add. 😉
DG, funny you phrase it that way “the moment I’m too scared to add.” I was getting impatient and itching to add – then I remembered that’s usually a bad sign. Lol!
Another big volume open-near-the-high/close-weak kind of day for SLV. Likely we get a scary day tomorrow or Thursday to perhaps finish this dip. Get ready everybody! I’ll be interested to see what Gary writes tonight.
I think it’s day 2 of the start into the daily cycle low, but that takes time and is a process. See Gary terminology.
There are no certainties on price.
Past cycles have taken from 5 to 12 days to find the cycle low. We should expect or be patient for a similar outcome, meaning we do not bottom until next week, give or take a few days. It’s a process, be patient with it, don’t rush back into trades, the market will give you plenty of head-fakes to fool you back in. That said though, you should be invested enough, as per Gary, to catch a move back to new highs here and a very stretched cycle.
As for price or severity, it’s hard to say. We have seen decent drops in past cycle lows, in the order of 10% for Silver is not entirely unreasonable, I do not see why we should be discount such an outcome. Only caveat this time around is that gold didn’t stretch too far and Silver held up fairly well on a decent gold drop. That could mean we still have a few more days of chopping around a trading range towards the highs or even a brief fresh new highs.
A cycle low shouldn’t be cause for any concern and Gary portfolio allocation should have you golden. A little draw down after these massive gains shouldn’t be any cause for concern. It’s also not the time to be radically shifting and reallocating your portfolio, that process should have already been planned and executed. It’s easy and costly to over trade cycle lows.
Me too, I’m itchy to add to make more money. The bull has us spoiled. I’d love to see it do the cycle low so I could jump in again.
Eamonn: Poly’s answer was more complete and better than mine. (Though I suspect this cycle will be on the short side in terms of number of days, but that’s just my gut talking).
Thanks Poly & DG for your comments
Goldman Sachs tells clients close out long positions in Canada
Hmmm miners anyone.. slammed on these days. Buy the metal this is 2008 101 lol
I wish I had some dry powder to buy more on the dip … that’s what I did back in January … but I’m “all in” now so I just have to sit back and ride it out.
I MIGHT dip my toe in the water and buy some options at the daily cycle low with the few extra dollars left in my brokerage accounts.
So those of you buying options, please post what you bought and why so rookies like me can watch and learn.
GottaHaveIt, I hear ya. I’d like to buy options (not very much, but some) to take advantage to this 1 in a few years blow off event. Haven’t a clue what to do re options though. I’m hoping Poly will tell us when to go when the time comes!!
This is one of my signals to buy…A fellow pm investor get’s really irritated and sends me irate emails right around the bottom for miners. He starts to rip the shreds all the PM bulls out there and calls the frauds, etc. His last name is Hilson and I call it the Hilson indicator. Usually a safe time to buy the miners. I tell ya to the day back in Jan it nailed it.
Here’s a taste of what I just got-
John Embry should be your knew reverse indicator.“Why would anyone short mining shares!”Because they’re smarter than you John…. you senile F—!!!!And for the readers globally I feels thatJohn should fire himself, check into a rest home,and never talk again.
Can you explain to me who this Richard Russell is, and whyEric King is so far up his rear end.?What the hell does it mean to be the king of newsletters anyway.Maybe he should be considered the king of jackasses. I believe Jim Rickards, John Embry,Richard Russell, Jim Sinclair and Marc Faber should charter a private jet, and fly intothe side of mountain.
silver holding rather strong at 39.8…
I’m not a expert like most on this board…here is my 2 cents
Silver: if we panic sell-off here, the next target might be 38.2 which is the 23.6% retracement…other kinds of support at 38 as well
Gold: if we have cycle top in gold…we rose from 1380 to 1480 this cycle – a 50% retracement would be 1425-1435 range and we already hit 1443 today…I bet that we run through a ton of stops at 1440 and maybe hit 1430-1435. If we see the miners diverge as gold hits 1435, its time to start buying
As for playing options: I am sure that if we follow Gary when he buys his options, we’ll all do just fine 🙂
funny post Jayhawk – the Hilson indicator
also, know how I feel at cycle bottoms…I feel like I’ve hit rock bottom and everything comes to a standstill
JayhawkWhat a hoot, the Hilson Indicator (now forever known as HI). Hope that guy dosn’t have an office any higher than the first floor…
Too funny Jay!
Good Stuff. 🙂
Wow Jayhawk!That is quite colorful! I wonder if Hilson’s blood pressure will be able to handle a drop through $38!
I think becoming a successful trader/investor must take at least 5 years to learn. So many signals and gut instincts to develop and much money to be lost before it can be conquered. But very satisfying if you can do it right. Its nice to have this blog & premium site cos at least I can learn from the experienced folk. There is a LOT of garbage sites and “noise” out there
In all fairness to Hilson though, I know how he feels. I’ve felt bad before also (but not with such great literary talent).
If you want to feel serious hurt, pay those guys some good money for subscriptions and then open an account at Monex!
if we subscribed to Gary, we all knew that this was going to be a ugly cycle low – no surprises so far
I didn’t do anything today but in hind sight I wish I trimmed SLW yesterday vs AGQ. I’m disgusted with SLW so maybe that’s a good sign so I’ll just continue to hold, no way I’m selling it not after this spanking. Now the real question is should I follow Gary with options or just put it back in AGQ? I know there’s been a debate if the miners or metals outperform during the c wave finale so I’m trying to decide maybe I should just overweight in the metals.
got my ass clobbered with monex . i was new, but the eagerness to get you in a possition and utter disapointment if you try to get out. they had me shorting silver and i kept buying to raise my average and was able to get out. finally i was long and got caught in what was a drop from 17.85 to 16.03.. no lie i sold at 16.13. i lost one years wages
i think they were watching gary and had me going totally backwards
remember no one knows the future. this gold trade is speculation.
just set your stops mentally or on your stock holdings.
the right time to buy full force (not these itty tiny steps) is at intermediate cycle lows.
that was back in in the end of january.
the next one won’t be for a while yet.
just ride this thing out unlevered with the metals, it’s a bronco. it’s good you guys delevered now because sideways or negative drops could smash your accounts.
its not very ugly yet
It’s great to see everyone is expecting a clobbering.
I found the reason for the sell off! Here we go-
US deficit up 15.7% in first half of fiscal 2011
(AFP) – 1 hour ago
WASHINGTON — The US budget deficit shot up 15.7 percent in the first six months of fiscal 2011, the Treasury Department said Wednesday as political knives were being sharpened for a new budget battle.
The Treasury reported a deficit of $829 billion for the October-March period, compared with $717 billion a year earlier, as revenue rose a sluggish 6.9 percent as the economic recovery slowly gained pace.
JayHawk,That was a great email! Did you get that today?
In a daily cycle low aren’t we all supposed to feel disappointed and frustrated at the market, questioning if it actually is a cycle low and not the top of an intermediate cycle?
Sentiment here is still very positive. Silver could very well touch its 20 day moving average, as it did on the last daily cycle low, before it begins to rise.
Bookguy-yes, just got those. Had to talk him off the ledge. 🙂
peoples emotions can’t be just measured with a sentiment guage.
like time a sell off when it hits 70/75/85 c’mon it’s not that simple.
I dont think sentiment will get very low here as seems that most of us have made a big profits past few weeks and sold out past few days as this decline comes expected so it really hasn’t hurt too many of us.
I agree with Dan about selling over the last few days
I’d normally be in panic mode by now looking at the miners
this one I was prepared – I sold off my stocks and locked in profits
now waiting patiently
Me too, gold silver troll. I sold off my stocks and locked in profits. I made a LOT of money in the general stock market up to Feb 18th this year. Then I lost it again when the market declined and corrected, and was too inexperienced to see what was happening, and made all the usual novice mistakes
Hi guys I’m a mewbie here and was wondering if some one oculd point me towards some good texts on cycles and such that you guys use about cycles?
im waiting, but not patientlyi start a new job next week and wont be able to watch closely at all… anyone want to call me when gary says buy =)
when gary is around and posting, ask him. he says there arent really any books on cycles, but i think he mentioned trader vik. im not sure though, make sure you ask him
anyone here play airline stocks?
they’re all up today with nice volume – drop in oil prices is my guess
we should be comeing to a oil cycle bottom. does gary anounce the oil swing low usually
GS Troll,I’ve traded airline stocks in the past but they are too volatile and the risk/reward ratio is crappy.Anything can affect airlines: price of oil, volcano eruption, act of terrorism, weather, recession, crash, birds through engines, you name it.Forget airlines as a trade, they should be used for travel.
Gary doesn’t know of any books because his system is his own. The premium site has the explanation of his system. I would highly recommend signing up for the premium site. It’s the best $200 you’ll ever spend. You can try it out for $20 a month before signing up for the whole time. He does run specials from time to time.
Welcome aboard,Le Fou
And I have a question on how you see this: Why trade miners at all?
Essentially what is happening, gold is going up because of some fundamental reasons. Silver is outperforming gold, but for a tad more debatable fundamental reasons, so it’s leverage to gold trade. This bet is what our investments rely on.
So everything is just a leverage on top of gold price BUT with added uncertainties. Why not trade it as such.
Trading miners is just an added unpredictability of CEOs, earning repots, mines collapsing, oil price margin squeeze whatever, trader sentiment changing GPL for another ‘favourite’ like AG before it too is being dumped – on top of silver/gold price itself, which has uncertainties of its own.
To leverage price of silver there are other ways that rely directly on price of silver, not a chance of managing to pick an ever changing magical basket of ripping miners.
So… why do you trade miners? I can think of only two reasons. Personal challenge/fun and not having all of investment in one vehicle.
Personally, I dont have any miners anymore for about a month now.
Looks like Hammy has been getting under a number of folks skin. Turd Ferguson on his blog called the Hammy out on his uselessness. About time for him to pop up here and tell us about his Globex Silver short fills at $42.51 at 3am.
I finally gave up on the SLV April 40 lottery play about lunchtime today and closed it for 30 cents.
Hope I didn’t jinx the cycle low with that move.
That finally gets me out of all April calls, and hopefully clears the mind for the next move, whatever that turns out to be.
I’m starting to come around a bit to that line of thinking. The past 2 days have been ridiculous. No idea why these silver miners are getting pummeled so severely when the price of silver is barely off it’s highs.
I guess there are those who like to OWN a company vs. a derivative of silver where there may be issues at some point with that funds ability to stay solvent. That end game should be a long way off if the conspiracy clan is correct…but what if it’s not?
I guess if our end game is only a few weeks off, I may just go all in metal play and say adios to the miners.
Glad to see you all got out a few days ago to avoid the dip, but I question your comments that the “decline was expected so most people here got out.”
I have been a premium subscriber here for a couple of weeks and I don’t recall seeing a “sell” signal given by Gary over the past few days … or I would have sold my stocks too.
So it seems that you all made your own “sell” decisions based on your gut instincts and/or technical analysis of the current market trend rather than a recommendation by Gary, is that correct?
I just want to make sure that I did not miss something.
The thread is called “Portfolio Change”. Did you read the report?
Well said, Gotta.
Thanks Le Fou and Jeff, i just signed up and have been trying to read the stuff on the website, always looking for more. ill check out trader vic, i think i may have come across some of his option trading stuff in the past.
GattHaveIt..Gary only recommended selling for those who were overly leveraged. For others of us who are not, Old Turkey is the strategy he suggested.
However, as you likely know, human nature is a fickle variable in markets, and Old Turkey is difficult for most of us mere mortals, thus knowing a daily cycle top was a probability, many folks around here locked in some profits on their own volition.
If you’re long and strong, your right where Gary is.
Just be patient. I too have NOT sold or bought anything since the intermediate low on Jan. 29th. I will sell when we believe the intermediate top is in.
Also, just because people are trading in and out of things, it doesn’t mean that all of them are doing the right thing. Some are and some aren’t.
You have the best chance of making money if you stay focused and wait for the intermediate cycle top. You can hang out with me if you want. 🙂
Yes I did read the report that was posted last night, as well as the update posted earlier in the day.
But several members are bragging about selling out LAST WEEK and I don’t recall seeing any recommendation from Gary last week encouraging members to sell.
In fact, I did not interupt last night’s report by Gary as a “sell” signal either. He said he was taking some profits off the table, but he is leveraged over 100% so I don’t blame him.
Maybe I’m stupid, but I thought that if and when it was time to sell I would get an explicit statement from Gary such as “Looks like the market is going to correct next week, so you better take some profits now.”
Maybe that’s what he meant and I just didn’t “get it.”
So when many members said they got out because they knew it was coming, it made me wonder what I missed.
My understanding was that we were supposed to hold on until the end of the Intermediate Cycle, not sell some now.
I’m still new to PM’s and trying to understand this wild roller coaster ride.
Gotta: You are right and missed nothing. Few people really can get out and then get back in. 1) You have to get out right and 2) You have to actually buy back in and , when they are down, not think “What if they dip more.” Gary is right that very few are emotionally built to do this and will just get faked out of their position and miss the whole thing. The people who try to do this post, and the ones who just sit don’t post “I didn’t do anything” so the perception is skewed.
That makes sense. Once again, you are the voice of reason.
@Gotta, that’s a good observation. This board is full of traders who are more active than Gary. You did not miss a sell signal; however, Gary is making a small change to 15% of his portfolio to take advantage of this cycle low. Some of the people on this board appear to have traded a greater percentage, which comes with its own benefits and risks.
I like to follow Gary’s lead, in principle if not in actual allocation (I own more miners than he does, but make my moves when he does). In 8 months as a subscriber, I have made a killing going in 130% when he did, jumping out when he did, getting whipsawed like he did, and holding Old Turkey when he did. Don’t get too worked up over the noise on this blog. Follow Gary and prosper.
GottaHaveIt,I don’t think Gary will ever recommend trading the PM bull. I interpreted the post as a sign of a high probability correction and being a late comer wanted to take advantage of any opportunity I could so I lightened up considerably. We will see if it was a good ideas after I reenter. So far so good.
As for those exiting last week, a lot of people say a lot of things in this incredible forum. Not all of them jibe with what Gary is doing or his interpretation of market direction.
Those of us counting on metals going higher should be ok regardless of how we played this move.
@DG, good typing and timing skills; my post seems a little pointless now. 🙂
@Angry, nice to see a bunch of subs rush to clarify!
gotta garys plan is old turkey and most effective. some of us carry a little more leverage, some dont listen and buy in on time ( like me, i let one broker say wait for a pullback and wala i was off chaseing) but, we all knew this top was comeing and based our play on that. gary did post a little reposition on the premium smt
Gotta: IWe all posted because it’s important. Once you have been at this a long time and know yourself well enough to be sure you can sell and buy back higher if need be (that is if your sell was wrong), then you can try it. But you will make an absolute pile doing what Gary says, so why not stick with that? When it’s time to get out or sell a chunk he will be very, very clear. I’ve been trading a long time so I’ll be damned—if I see a dip coming—if I don’t act on it…but that’s just me. I post because there are others here who try the same foolishness.
Gotta,The daily cycle tops are the place to re adjust your portfolio if need be. I trimmed my slw positions yesterday and today. It seems to have run into a bald spot and rather than taking a chance on it underperforming for the rest of the c wave, I took those profits now and re apply to agq when we hit the daily low. Even though a lot of us are pointed in the same general direction we may all have slightly different methods of getting there and we all have to find our own personal comfort levels. Good luck.
Gary said to offload if someone is leveraged heavily and buy back (with dry powder whatever the case maybe) when there is cycle low on Gold.
If someone sold all theirs, good for them, but he discourages trading as there are lot of fake outs in this market.
Did anyone see this on Bloomberg?
Silver Options Trader Bets $1 Million on Price Drop by July
A trader’s almost $1 million bet that an exchange-traded fund tracking silver will decline by July was today’s biggest single options trade on U.S. exchanges as futures on the metal reached a 31-year high.
The 100,000 puts, or options to sell 100 shares each of the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) at $25 by July, changed hands at the ask price of about 10 cents and exceeded the open interest of 6,054 outstanding contracts before today, indicating that a buyer of a new bearish position initiated the transaction. The ETF rose to $40.33, the highest intraday level since trading began five years ago, before falling 1.6 percent to $39.21 at 4 p.m. New York time. It hasn’t closed below $25 since November.
Thanks for the clarification everybody!
As I initially said, sounds like some people chose to sell on their own, which is fine. Glad it worked out of you.
I just wanted to make sure I wasn’t missing an “official” sell signal or something I was supposed to be paying attention to.
I’m perfectly happy going the gold turkey route.
I meant “old turkey” LOL!
Why don’t they have an “edit” link here.
Gary’s system does not work well in spotting tops..he has said this many times himself so dont count on him getting you out near the top. His calls are spot on for catching bottoms.
With experience you will get to “feel” when a top is forming. Like i said yesterday, there were several clues for taking some profits including a big gap up over the weekend, timing bad for top, and extended move outside the daily bollinger.
This does not mean to exit your entire position but you can use it to cut some leverage.
“Gold” Turkey works
Raz gary will and does say he has the tools to get us out at the top of the c wave though. he just doesnt trade the daily cycle wiggles
are we getting a post tonight?
im feeling itchy and need a premium fix
Well ightened down to 93% from 120 (it stated at 140 in feb)silver at 40.6 when I did Mostly lightened agq and some juniorsIt feels hard when you can,t access to trade as signal is called but still hope to use dry powder when call comesTaxman getting a chunk of it first thoughGood luck all
I know how you feel I keep refreshing the screen waiting for the report to be there. I’m like a crackhead.
In this evening’s Premium report, Gary mentions buying a small May option position. Would someone be kind enough to mention a symbol for the option I should by?
Eamonn: You won’t listen to me but I will say it anyway. Don’t buy options! Gary did NOT say you SHOULD buy options. He said, IF you want to, you might try May…” You have said you have a lot to learn. Options are a major distraction until you really know what you are doing, and you will lose money, or worse, make money. If you make money you will think you’re smart and subsequently get killed (I made and soon lost about $2 million trading when I was young so I know how that works.) Just my advice.
OK DG! Thanks for your sanguine advise
I will add my $ 0.02. Everyone who has traded options seriously has gotten KILLED at one time or another. It is usually better (and much cheaper) to learn your lesson early and with much less money, but trust me, you are playing with fire. If you have to ask people what to buy, what strikes, etc. this indicates your inexperience. If you online broker allow it, paper trade (not using real money) and see how you do over a few months.
Otherwise your lesson will come with real money. How much can’t you afford to lose?
options are alot of learning, but if you want to learn and get a feel for them and you have someone like gary to follow, how about you just buy one and get a feel for them. there really is alot to them and a million stratagies, well i would say try one at a time for a good while
and dg is also very right
Great report Gary.
I can assure everyone gold has not bottomed because I’m so eager to enter a big buy order for more AGQ.
When I stop being impatient to buy and start being anxious to buy I’ll know the bottom is nigh. ; )
Are you still holding sizable PM longs? I remember earlier this year you were saying, in effect, “If you think PMs are bottoming why not just get completely out until you think we’ve gotten the bottom?”
Gary provides a PERFECT premium site and next to real time alert service which does not require visiting this “free” site. All the information required to profit is right there.
Many of us come to this free site to exchange ideas, post trades, talk, gossip and bullshit. It does not come endorsed by Gary and in many cases directly contradicts his views and ideas. Take what you want and need from this site and ignore te rest.
We’re all adults risking our hard earned capital, treat it with respect and let’s all take responsibility for our own actions.
Thats for advice RE options all. I wont buy any. Just the greed of making a profit got me interested. I hope there is a bloodbath in gold and silver overt the next week and I will jump on again for the next round up :oD
That reminds me, what are you thinking for lottery plays at the bottom of the cycle low?
45 SLV JUL?
E,If this correction does what I think it will do you will be virtually paralyzed at the bottom with fear.
That’s how you will know it’s time to buy.
OK, thank you Gary. Will be interesting to watch the next week unfold and watch the different components fall into place
So this next correction, whether it starts here or a little higher will really test everyone’s ability to control their emotions and believe in the gold bull…I like it.
Yes I expect that many will start to question whether the D-wave has begun.
Catbird: I sold about 50% of my PM’s and am hoping for this dip to continue. I sold my AGQ’s between 264 and 265 (most of what I was long and will be long )so have room to buy back even if I miss the bottom. Gary has been an absolutely invaluable aid to my trading, but I have always done my own stuff as well. I have traded each daily cycle and been better off for it. What Gary has done for me more than anything is tremendously upped my size by giving me confidence in the shape of the PM bull. I have really come to understand Jimmy Rogers statement “There is always a bull market in something” and implicitly: “Go find it” and Livermore’s “My thinking never made me much money, but my sitting did.” This has become a permanent part of me now in a way it never was before (Thanks, Gary!)
ddn3f, thats the perfect setup for dirt cheap lottery play too. $45’s might be a candidate, certainly in the area, but will need to wait for the bottom to find best fit. Hope to use June’s too.
@WES, so you had to dump those $40 SLV! Now you did it, gap up tomorrow 🙂
Good night all.
Cat: One other thing…I am so far ahead for the year now I don;t mind taking some drawdown on 1/2 my usual load. Earlier in the year I got even lighter during corrections because I did not have “strong hand status.”
DG,Good to have you back.
I did my pants in once before, changed everything. Maybe that’s what everybody needs once! Don’t know.
Does anybody have an idea what the projected AGQ price would be if gold hits $1440?
Hi, Gary, With QE2 ending in June, and Fed Policy meeting at April27, why you think the C wave will last to June? Could Dollar start to moving up soon, and D wave starts this month or next month?
Bring on the Pain Baby!
Thanks, Poly. It’s all a fun game (winning, making money) until it goes all wrong and you have a smoking hole in your account. Then it becomes really serious, really fast!
Am a little surprised by todays report. I just want to point out, more to the beginners than anyone else, you should have your own stops as if Gary plans on holding his position old turkey “even if we break below 1382” (ie. roughly February 18th level = $31 on silver :-O) then I would imagine most of you would be WAY down. I personally got in with full leverage around $31 and sure as hell would not give up those profits on the hopes that we get one final “wave” as nothing is certain when it comes to the markets and for all we know, we could very well drift downwards right into the summer doldrums from here.
No offense to Gary as maybe he slipped up in this report but I honestly doubt he will hold his 100%+ leveraged portfolio status quo as silver drops another $10.
Now that there’s talk about how big and scary the correction will be, I’m a bit worried now. I’m not leveraged and don’t have options. I trimmed down to 93% a couple of days ago but now if the correction is going to be as big as Gary suggests, I’m wondering if I should sell some more tomorrow? I’d hate to do that since I sat through the beating for a couple of days already. What do you guys suggest, close my eyes and just old turkey it?
My system’s stop on this latest long trade has now moved up to 1420.
Nice to see you again. Thanks for the update.
If the dollar is close to a cycle low and gold is currently dropping along with the dollar then what is going to drive gold up the final leg of the C wave?
Just to clarify, that is your “sell” signal which actually marks a buy in a correction? Is that right, or is this a different kind of stop?
Gary, Really great report tonight.
Gary:Today the 4 day rule also triggered on the SPX. We also have the BB crash trade and the VTO trade. You also mentioned potential new highs and May options.
Given the uncertainty about future Fed action and the 4 Day rule about trend change, why do you expect a new high? Or did the reduction in GDP estimates strengthen your conviction about QE3 and higher equity highs?
Obama’s Foot in Mouth Disease. Common Side Effect of a Debt Addict
I dont want to sound like a pessimist on this board because I want a final blast off in this “C-wave” but IMHO I dont think we can have a LARGE correction here as we only have this month and May to make our money as once were midway through May, seasonality really goes against us and gold/silver typically bottom out in July. But it needs time to get to that July bottom so I cannot see us correcting here for several weeks and retracting back to the early/mid thirties for silver and then coming roaring back to $50…all in the span of 6 weeks? Or if not 6 weeks, then into June/July (historically the worst months for PMs)?? C’mon, honestly?
We either have a relatively mild correction here and go back up or we are done for this season and we twiddle our thumbs till late summer./jmo
Jennifer, it’s been too confusing to call some sells buys on this blog so I will refrain.1420 is the point my system will sell longs and go short, but I am with Gary and think we have one more upleg so I will not be selling longs and will most certainly not go short when the stop is hit.I may add once the system does go back to a buy.
Aviat, The 4 day rule only applies after a long intermediate move. This intermediate move is only three weeks old. It doesn’t qualify for a 4 day rule yet. Those apply after the intermediate cycle has run 4-5 months.
Also even during the bear market no intermediate cycle top in less than three weeks. I’m not sure we’ve ever seen an intermediate cycle top in three weeks or less.
The odds are that stocks still have at least another 4-5 weeks before the intermediate cycle tops and maybe even longer.
Dan,I’m not sure you read tonight’s report. I included how long I expect the correction to last.
How about a 2 week correction? The correction started this last Monday and will end on April 22. 2 weeks is enough time to do some massive damage. Then off we go and still hit the C-wave top before the beginning of June.
In the run from last fall, silver went from about $23 to $29 (26% gain) from Oct 21 to Nov 8 (13 trading days)
Then from $25 to $30.5 (22% gain) from Nov 15 to Dec 6 (16 trading days)
Let’s take Gary’s 3-6 dollar pull-back from the $42 silver level.
$38 to $50 is 31.5%$37 to $50 is 35%$36 to $50 is 39%Can we have those gains within a full cycle? Probably yes if it’s the parabolic last daily cycle up.
In this last daily cycle we went from $33.5 to $42 (25%) from Mar 14 to April 11 (16 trading days). We have not gone parabolic yet.
If the next daily cycle goes parabolic, I guess we can hit the target in the timeframe.
Gary, good report. cleaned out the clutter in my mind and set a clear plan of action, but please all correct me if I missed anything on the parabolic moves to come.
1. Use up the remaining powder at the cycle low.2. Ride to your specified number to switch from silver to gold.3. Sell all at the spot silver #.
If I have missed anything, give me a holler! Looks like we are getting to the end moves here.
86d4life,Wish I had cleaned out some of that excess SLW last Friday also. But have to hang on for now and perhaps change that out, will see how it runs back up.
Eamonn,Options, learn them before you play them. I think you got a few book ideas to read through. But you can be ready for the A wave. You don’t have to try everything all at once. I think this ride is scary enough to learn to just play Old Turkey.
Great posts all, good to see everyone back in mode and grooving together.
…at ease,could ya mail me? [email protected]
Yes, I re-read it and see your prediction with respect to the timeline of the correction and am hoping that it pans out that way.
I was just surprised by your statement that “even if we were to go below 1382 we would still not sell…until a rally.” I just wanted to remind anyone new where silver was when we were below 1382 on gold last time.
Dont take this as an attack on you, as I fully agree with your timeline and expect it to play out as such.
Gary, would you mind sharing your thoughts on the gold daily cycle low, from a timing point of view?
If you can address it in yuor weekend report, I’d appreciate it.
Dan,I don’t actually think the odds are very high that gold will drop back below the prior cycle low of $1382. I was just trying to get the point across that it is a mistake to sell into a cycle low.
I agree with your points and expect it to play out more or less that way. I am just surprised by what seems to be lower and lower targets for this correction as I dont believe we can have a “large” correction here simply due to where we are seasonally and how much we have gone up the past few months. Its either a minor correction or a long one that lasts well into the summer. It cant imagine it being a mixture of the two.
At Ease,You have a square plan. Now just `at ease`, be patient and wait to strike like a cobra from the weeds. No sweat. LOL. It`s just like my DI used to say; it`s mind over matter. Only thing was when he said it it was `I don`t mind and you don`t matter`. You`ll be fine.
DG was the one that confirmed my idea of the total dump on the slw. A possible line of thinking though. It`s hit hard resistance at $46-$47. When we get the final push, and hopefully it cracks through that resistance line, will it just slingshot past like nobodys business? Be prepared just in case. Maybe some of our more experienced board members could leave they`re thoughts on this.
Glad to see you check in.
86d4life,LOL…I with you… BRING IT ON!The harder the fall the bigger the gain!
Gary,Thanks for the clarification on the 4 day rule. Certainly helps.
It is just that this equity market has not seen four down days since the post QE2 sell-off in early November. That sell-off ended at the 50 day SMA which was sloping nicely up.
Man, all this talk of a massive, scary, make you want to puke, D-wave like correction in gold and silver makes me mighty glad I trimmed back!
Hi …at ease, got yours, and I sent ya a mail :o)
is this d-wave in progress, or just correction, then we go high and then correct hard for d-wave. can someone clarify that, thanks in advance.
E, this is the c-wave we are in now. We are awaiting a big correction over the next 1-2 weeks, after which the c-wave will continue up until late May/June, and then the long decline d-wave begins
I’m gonna throw a bit of a wrench in here.
I’m intrigued by how easy it was for so many to sell and how quickly people are looking down and savorying a lower entry. The market doesn’t generally make it easy for people to do what they feel like doing and profit from it.
It think the way to screw the most people over after the last two days is to crank around and go higher. I actually think there is a good chance of that.
From my view last week appeared to be setting off the final run to a high. That may or may not be true, but if so, then we will see a rather violent continuation higher by the end of this week.
I’m not really betting either way for now. I have my full position and didn’t sell anything. I dont’ expect gold to drop below 1410.
But I *AM* keenly on the lookout for a ramp around higher.
My silver increase earlier today (stopped out) was based on my belief we might get a fast turnaround. Still may happen.
If we go higher then I might chase some. If we go lower and I’m wrong here then I’ll just buy the next level down as I did today.
Wednesday should be interesting.
TZ, Was that you that posted the high for last Friday and going down on Monday forecast that just happened?If it was, thanks, as I was able to do a portfolio adjustment on Friday and not lose anything. 🙂I also wonder about that quick turn coming also.
Maybe you are right Jin. Never thought of that
DG, TZ, Coolkevs and all:
Would appreciate any call on SPY, ASAP, since with my work 401K, that’s what we have access to, and we have to place the trade by noon EST to be effective EOB. I have been out since Gary told us to get out, and am dabbling back a little %. Wish I did it for the Japan move too, but by the time I read it, it’s already too late (i.e. DG was already getting out!)
Thanks very much to all.
I dont’ think I commented on a fri-mon thing happening.
My contribution last week was that thurs would prob be flat, but fri would ramp higher (which it did.) That was based on fairly typical pattern when you have a strong weekly breakout from congestion.
If your theory is correct, and gold and silver take off higher, will you sell some of your position at whatever you believe is the real top of this daily cycle?
TZ,Either way, what you called happened and worked for me.thanks 🙂
The blowoff we are expecting will be a number of strong weeks up and a buying frenzy. I have a few tools which I will be using to try and call and exit the top.
As for selling some daily cycle I’m not sure what you mean. I’m not selling until that blowoff (or until we crash lower through my stops which I think should hold).
Eamonn, you can trash can your comments as you need to in the blog, rather than sharing SMTP members information.
Another comment about today and my “blast higher by fri” theory.
Last week we broke strongly higher through significant resistance on gold.
As of earlier today (tues) we came back down to test that breakout and stopped out a bunch of contracts on gold and silver (people chasing late from last week).
In many normal breakouts, that quick retest and blast higher would be all you would expect.
The angle from gary that we continue lower through that breakout zone and drop even lower really doesn’t jib in my head with the strength of this market and the normal behavior of a breakout.
Could happen. We’ll see. I’m certainly respectful of gary’s calls and I already put in a buy attempt for a loss.
I’m simply on the lookout for a fast resumption higher after this retest. I would be a classic follow through from a breakout.
Called here the top in late April 2010.
Bought AGQ back at $70. Sold AGQ at $148 and bought it back $130. No change since then.
Advised here several times against investing in miners in general versus AGQ. Reasoned with charts comparing the rise of AGQ vs prominent miners. Posted here several times early this year.
Repeatedly said that miners’ gains will be impaired because of rising expenses to mine the metal.
Also suggested here that SLW might be glued to a P/E of around 50, which implies a slow rise in price, subdued when compared to the price of silver.
All these calls and recommendations were made here and completely contrasted Gary’s calls at the time; naturally, I got nicely lectured by Gary and hammered by others here every time.
Repeatedly suggested here that AGQ is the best way to invest at this stage and that miners should make a very small portion of one’s holdings, at best. Invested 80% in AGQ.
Also, stated here the only two miners I bought this year. I recommended them here, and suggested that only the absolute laggards and garbage companies like the ones I bought could outperform AGQ at this stage. Bought SBR.TO at $50 in February and posted here. It is now at $ 1.30, only six weeks later. Also bought SQI.V in February at $50 and posted here. It is now at $70.
Was critical here several times of the daily attempts to time the PM market, and of flip flop trades. Suggested that silver doesn’t need daily discussion.
Was suggested and agreed to a subscription refund as I didn’t see how daily reports would make me any more money than what I was making already. Could see though how it would keep me busy reading while there was absolutely no news and no change in the PM market.
Decided to stay away from this page after a series of anti semitic comments were made on this page by regular posters, which were tolerated by Gary with a ‘freedom of speech’ excuse.
Will still post here every once in a while and want to close with a recent quote from Richard Russel:
“The precious metals will correct when they are ready, and I might add that in ten years of closely following gold and silver, I have never come across anyone who has successfully called tops or who has successfully traded in-and-out of the metals. Advice — stay invested in the metals until they exhaust themselves in panic buying.”
While I certainly won’t want to hold AGQ or my miners in a market downdraft, I do think that trading PMs should be limited to two buys and sells a year at the most.
Good luck to all
PS: I’ll argue against myself and for gary by saying:
-there was a LOT of call buying last week by you guys which isn’t a good sign.
-this is options expiration week where gains are usually unlikely (since most people buy calls)
-the sweet spot for GLD appears to be 1-2 points lower than tues close.
-and, sunday late night really did look like a mini-exponential peak which could argue for a good pullback.
So who know.
PS: To be fair, I did follow Gary’s call to sell and buy back silver earlier this year. He was right on the money with that call.
It would be extremely difficult for me to trade in and out of my position due to the leverage I have. The smart play is to sit.(Although calmly and patiently trying to pick off opportunistic buys to add (with small stops) isn’t too hard and still yields great results. It keeps my leverage constant as we rise).
If I add (like today) wrong and get stopped out, then no big deal. It’s a small loss (by design with my approach) and I still have large gain on the underlying position.
I just sit back and wait to try and pick another one off.
PPS: But then again, there was some flip-flop also (two sales and two buys within just a week or so) and if I think about it, I could have lived without the stress over a +10% trade.
I was kind of put off by members here basically having a pissing contest – in and out , more leverage, more options. Makes me feel like I’ve missed the train even though I’m 100% invested with a Jan.29th entry date. I’ve done well and have sat on my hands and have made some great gains. Other here brag about 400% returns.
Now people have exited positions of fear of a volatile shakeout (as you have mentioned earlier tonight), and although I do not want anyone to lose money, a sharp rise in the price of gold might be just what the doctor ordered for some.
Keep posting here regularly. You have interesting comments and I enjoy reading them.
Tz, You had this show me yours and I will make a big point about options. Well I showed you but your point is still missing. Please make it.
Basil, I basilly agree with your approach, except with regard to intermediate cycles. They can be quite nasty and much more profitable to trade around. Many people here who, are not trained traders, try to time or sell around these daily cycles and that is a fools game for sure. All the negativity here towards miners sure gives me a pause for thought. Most of them have done as tz described. Broke out and came down and tested the breakout point. I like that action.
Sorry, but I didn’t have some preaching comeback with the options. I wanted to know what people were really playing with.
The majority had 1-3% in options, so all their claims of “100%” or “300%” or whatever pretty much amounted to nothing when adjust for the size relative to portfolio.
They are spending a bunch of work and time to ‘get leverage’ at higher risk and lower return, in my opinion, than using margin, single stock futures, or regular futures.
It’s ok. To each their own.
Here is a chart of Gold purely for discussion only. Please don’t make any investment decisions based on this. Gold loves it’s chart patterns. For those of you new to technical analysis, one of the patterns currently at play on the gold chart is a cup and handle. It offers an initial target of ~1560. I don’t expect this to be the final target.
Big traders know this pattern is on the chart. They know there is support and resistance at the neckline at 1432. There will be traders waiting to buy at this level. There will also be traders trying to drive the price down below this level to trigger as many stops as they can below this support and scoop up those that fall. This is a high probability pattern and once the neckline is claimed and held you can generally hold your position for a short term trade to the target price and ignore the swings in between. Only experienced traders should be trying to trade the wiggles.
Tz, We differ in opinion about this for sure, but a 3% option purchase has demonstrated to me to add significant alpha to my portfolio at intermediate tops. If that small portion has several winners in the thousand percent area. The only way I see that not happening would be the same result from hitting your futures stop. Of course that outcome would have us sticking a fork in this wave and starting over soon.
I’m one of the “new guys” here but I can tell you that I’ve recently come around to your way of thinking, even though I did not see you previous posts.
I’ve been moving my money out of miners and into AGQ heavily over the past coupe of days, and I will probably move some more tomorrow.
I welcome your posts here because the more diverse investing opinions we have the better.
I like to gather as much information and as many opinions as I can get, and then make my own decisions.
As Gen. George Patton once said, “If everybody thinks the same thihng, somebody is not thinking”
Damn, I have to stop posting so fast and take time to proof before I publish!
I wish we had an “edit” feature here.
Seems like everyone and their mom is expecting this correction.
“Advised here several times against investing in miners in general versus AGQ. Reasoned with charts comparing the rise of AGQ vs prominent miners”
Is a generalisation as you say and can only apply to established producers. I can’t comment on the US market but in Australia there were plenty of emerging junior miners that gave 3 to 5 bags if you had bought them in April 2010. A basic fundamental template of JORC resource + low shares on issue + low MC + good management would have gotten you in to these.
I was talking about the time frame from Nov/Dec 2010 until today.
Well Basil, it sure doesn’t take long for you to revert back to why you got run off the last time.
That was cute, but making fun in such a way of someone who has helped so many won’t get you far.
The community prefers the sharing of good thoughts and ideas, such as your buy and hold theory.
you’re right. Will remove that last comment.
i read that last comment also basil.
As a novice investor i find most of your comments really educational but the chip on your shoulder weakens your points immensely
Why don’t you start your own blog if you are so successful?
It’s much easier to criticize somebody else when you have no accountability for your actions than it is to make invetment calls when you have many subscribers and their money resting on your advice.
Your last post proves you probably wouldn’t cut it.
$HUI has made a perfect backtest of the breakout. Will this hold? Or, will the correction takeout the trendline?
Uploaded with [URL=http://imageshack.us]ImageShack.us[/URL]
Relax guys, you are right, point taken. I took that last comment off; that comment btw wasn’t at all targeted at Gary, instead I made fun of how serious some people try talking technicals, charts, and day-trade-widsdom into PMs.
Silverhound,that last comment was a joke. Luckily I can afford cracking jokes while, yes, Gary has a huge responsibility on his shoulders. I totally see that.
Top of the morning SB.
basil, no probs, comments can lose their meaning across the www
SB good morning, it’s going to be a great day 🙂
At least the severe beating stage looks to have passed. LOL!
It’s unlikely metals scream higher after the last couple days, but it seems the worst is over. Even if we drift to lower levels over the next week, I’ll be quite comfortable adding another 10%.
A few of the local traders have been trying to “short the top” in PM’s since silver was 25 bucks. I just laugh at them. The last time was when Gold was 1440 the day before the big green candle. I said to him “you do realise it’s broken out and has a 1560 target” he says “no way 1475 to 1480 tops” lol. They are too busy looking at the picture hanging on the wall two feet in front of them to look up and notice the building has no roof and there is blue sky. But you have to know they are out there to understand the dips and swings in price.
I don’t see how the beating could be over. I am still waiting to sh*t myself but am feeling rather continent right now. Bring on the drop in metals that will have us all wearing Pampers and sucking our thumbs. Then lets load up at the bottom.
I didn’t say the downside is done, just that the waterfall decline has most likely run it’s course.
My best guess is we muddle around here, a little higher or lower from current levels. Let a week or two pass and the bull will resume.
I’ve got my money where my mouth is, no matter how painful at times.
And yes, crapping oneself is typically a good time to enter as long as it’s on the side of a long-term trend. 🙂
This feels like I am going to be chasing But I’ll buy when Gary says to buy
That’s one reason I prefer to ride through declines rather than attempt to sidestep them. I hate chasing, and if I already have a strong hand I let the odds work.
Drawdowns aren’t fun, but they get easier to take once ridden through to higher profits a few times. 🙂
for your HUI miners, which have given me distate as of late.. lol
I think things are still on track for a 620 index rise next week. I’m selling half then.
as you can see by the action in the pits, other commodity traders see the are waters fine, come in for a swim.
As to your recent comments on so many of us cheering for a bigger decline in silver:
I still hold a *sizable* AGQ position, even though I trimmed more than Gary.
My sense is most of the regulars still do as well.
so funny when people use this blog as a sentiment guage.
i think we’re a different niche of personalities here and not purely sheep herd mentality.
so it’s not dumb money but smart money.. 🙂
Sounds good, thanks for the explanation.
The exchange of information in forums like this has to be having an effect. Surely this forum alone doesn’t move the metals market. But being able to converse in real time with others around the world has to be having some effect on market fundamentals. I guess those who have been studying them pre-IT boom would have a better guage and be able to make more specific comments on the web effect or lack there of.
It wasnt a big deal, but I apologize to Mr, DG if it sounded like I harassed him yesterday.
I was looking at the wrong chart and thought one of his ‘calls’to go long ‘popped’ really nicely…so I said “Nice call!”…when in reality, it hadnt popped at all. 🙂
Thought he might think I was being a ‘bonehead’…and am requesting he calls off the ‘hit-man’ thats been following me 🙂
Record production /Revenues up 95%Continued growth forecast
I wanted to respond to your comments several days ago about rising fuel costs and it’s impact on stock price of the miners, but didn’t. You are absolutely right that mining is a fuel intensive business and when prices rise margins fall. Gary mentioned the 2008 parabola in coal miners. Take a look at those and see how quickly they rose at the same time oil prices were reaching record levels. Your theory is logical but momentum obviated logic in that case just as I believe it will in this c-wave relative to g/s miners.
Have a great day!
We haven’t even gotten the bottom of the dollar cycle and bounce yet. This is what I mentioned in last nights letter. We will see these morning rallies as late comers try to jump on the trend. But they will tend to fade as smart money that has been on for the entire ride sells into these rips.
Regarding miners profit margins, they should only suffer from higher oil prices if oil rises faster than the metals they sell. Since February, silver is up 61%m, while oil is up 31% (roughly).
We won’t know if miners or metal were best until the the C-wave completes, but wither will work. More important is to be long the sector with a hefty position.
typo, that was “either will work”. 🙂
“More important is to be long the sector with a hefty position”
You can’t argue with simple logic like that.
I saw an interview with Jim Rogers some time back. The interviewer was asking him about diversification of investments for safety. Jim replied with “diversification limits your losses but also limits your profits, if you want to make real money you have to put all your eggs in one basket and watch it like a hawk!”
He’s a straight talker but he’s also a Billionaire.
Wanted to post my recent sell and re- purchase of AG. Hoping for a bounce ,possibly a lot more downside ,as the chart shows.
1 daily chart, 1 weekly
as a side note: Most traders on here post (not to brag as some complainers have mistakenly thought)but to Help others.To show some trader techniques , that if you learn…could be useful later.
When the D-wave comes, and after the A wave rise…the hand holding is pretty much over on buy and hold technique. I am learning from others, hope we all can learn from each other.
I Trade, she old turkeys, he leverages 7x…but we all made great gains, and lived happily ever after!! 😉
If the pullback plays out…Buying $17 AG would be a gift for sure…easy double I.M.H.O.
Going to the doctor, good day all!!
P.S. But I will NOT get cute and try to sell the final climax top coming. Been there, done that, WAY too many head fakes…as Gary says, then technicals stretch and signals fade.
I would happily join you on that AG trade, Alex. $17 would be an early Christmas gift this year!
I’d also be interested in SIL around $26.25 ideally, but even $27.75 might get me to add some.
And NUGT will get bought when/if the HUI hits 565-567 or XAU at 215-216 area.
And lastly, I would not add (or buy) into today’s strength as the decline the last few days will take some time to work itself out, IMO.
Poly: Thanks for the nudge on SPY yesterday afternoon. I was thinking to buy some and when you posted you just did I pulled the trigger as well.
Gary. Could you make a comment on oil?And will you call the next cycle lowI have been watching the cycle chart
I did comment on oil last night.
I’ve used this strength to further reduce leverage.
I haven’t looked up how the coal miners performed during the last six months before the 08 crash, so I cannot argue with the point you are making… but as for the silver miners, during the past six months they more or less lagged for some reasons, and I believe the reasons are the ones I have been giving in my posts over the past four months. The past is, of course, no indication of what’s going to happen in the future, but there might just not be enough time left in this cycle for miners to give a grand outperformance. Btw, I held silver miners prior to the 08 crash and they did not perform that well back then.
Basil,I’m one of the posters that took a shot at you last time that you were here, because it seemed like all you wanted to do was blast Gary and anyone else who disagreed with you. Well, I think that it’s pretty stand-up of you to apologize and remove your last posting, so I think that those of us that took a cheapshot should do so as well.I think most posters would agree that this Basil is welcome on the board anytime. Welcome back and appreciate your comments.
Poly,DG, I just picked up the SPy trade below 132 🙂 Thx
Can someone explain why major miners such as AEM are in a down trend while pm’s are going up?
After much thought ive taken this opportunity to reduce my exposure today, many thanks to those on here who advised me to do this
ive tried to copy garys advice and not over react but im fed up of hitting refresh on my kitco iphone app 5 times a night in my sleep to check the silver price, so i think i need to play with a more managable sum of capital
Say bye bye to SLV and silver.
Here you go.
Geez Beanie you’ve been consistently wrong about the metals forever. You and Precther are neck and neck on who can make the most wrong calls.
Don’t you think it’s time you learn how these cycles work so you could get it right every once in a while?
whoa, whoa…hold on her a second folks.
Gary has been preaching old turkey for over 4 years, alot longer than another one of “greatest investor in the whole world” to pop up on this blog and announce has Gary is wrong and “they” know more than anyone else.
Basil, you’re just another of the pretenders. You made it clear that no one on this planet is smarter than you. I understand that you want every investor to be like the great Basil , but funny, humans don’t work that way. I am sure the active traders on this blog ( I am not one of them)are happy to know that they are just wasting their time. They should just wait until the great basil posts on gary’s blog and they will be rich…you get that DG, Alex, Wes, Poly, Pima..and the other active traders! You may be smart, but Basil is smarter.
As you mentioned basil, for most regular investors, one or two buy/sells a year is about all one needs to do. In fact that is what I have been doing for the last 3 years. But I learned that from Gary. Not you. His timing has been incredible.
And you are also right. For old Turkey folks, the daily reports are not important. I would still pay the same price if all I got was the weekly report. But what about the other thousand(s) of subcribers who don’t think like me? What about the traders who want to play short term moves?
lastly, unlike any blog you would operate, Gary will never prevent you from coming on his blog,insult the host and many of its memebers calling yourself “artiste” and where some like me can respond with yeah, where I come from, we call you asshole.
Beano is fully invested in semis for the next bull market in the sector, maybe around 2025 or so.
Alex picking up 10%/day with his AG!
it looks like the correction in silver maybe over. I am looking at AG and it anticipated the correction and today is flying high up 8-9%. The best silver stock in my opinion.
I really doubt it. We get these intraday fakeouts when a correction begins to draw in new money to sell to.
The dollar hasn’t even bounced yet.
AG is a rocket both up and down – 26.88 to 20.5 in 5 days…that’s some beating
I am still AG 🙂 Thx Gary too for VTO trade 🙂 You rock!! lol
I agree with Natanarchist. I laugh especially hard when somebody who runs off, and while away sells their metals/miners, but waits until a two-day drubbing to come back and strut.
Just plain weak by anybody’s definition.
I am more of a chicken when I leave the Old Turkey safety! I bought FR (AG) near its low yesterday and sold today for a nice 7.5% gain; however, at this moment it’s up over 11%! Oh, well. Afew more bucks to roll into HZU (AGQ) when the time comes… 🙂
I took a bit off the table a few minutes ago. Feel more comfortable riding with exposure at 75% than 92%. Will add back all positions on the dollar bounce if we get it. Hopefully near a daily cycle low.
Will also add on new highs in gold if they follow an obvious cycle low.
Read Gary’s comment. Maybe I’m thinking like the smart money these days, although i usually find that when I sell I would have been better off buying instead. lol
Thanks to Alex for the advice re: FR (AG). I will buy some again if it gets down near $17!
OK. First Majestic is nuts. It’s now up over 13% on the day! It’ll be interesting to see if it fades as Gary suggests…
I looked at your charts, but I’m not a TA guy … so could you tell me exactly when and at what price you bought and sold AG. Thanks!
BTW, I’m still holding some AG … glad to see it’s up 13% right now. 🙂
I agree 🙂
If AG goes to 17, that will be the gift of the century
Ag now at 14.13 %. Shows it pays to hold on.
USD incredibly weak, even a bounce may not amount to much.
This is where Gary’s old turkey pays off…
Gary has often said that once the daily cycle low is done, the loses will be made up in a week max…
Also his rubber band theory: the more it gets stretched (both up and down), the more the reaction in the opposite direction
and if people freeze at the bottom, they end up chasing and missed all that gains and maybe more
Man, GPL has sure fallen out of favor!
AG is up 14% today and GPL is DOWN 1.5%
“The thrill is gone.”
Thanks to Beano, silver reversed and has broken higher. 🙂
No need for taking action today, so I’m outta here. Good luck PM bulls, and congratulations on that AG. You don’t have to make 14%/day for too long before you can retire!
How about gold and silver forming swing low today? Will you put the money back on?
wow, quite dramatic.
Someone (I think Brian) posted this before and it stuck with me..
When something is not doing what it is supposed to do, it’s time to move on…no point getting attached to a trade
Until GPL gets back into the uptrend, best to play something else
The SPY trade appears setup very nicely, IMO. The chart looks wonderful and a run to new high’s looks probable. We’re early in the INT cycle, had a good sell off and found nice 50dma support. A nice tight stop not to far below the 50dma gives it a good chance of working.
GPL looks to me like it is still forming a nice pennant or flag pattern.
@Brian, I’m with you. I think the Panther will roar again in the next cycle. It needed to revert back toward the mean before its next move. I’m holding long and strong!
I am almost totally out of GPL … sold off over the past few weeks after more than doubling my money on shares bought at the January low. I used to have 31,000 shares, I’m now down to only 1,290 shares.
I was just commenting on how fast it has fallen out of favor because it was THE hot silver stock back in Feb and look at it now.
Alex is at the Doctor, so he will answer later I’m sure. Pretty sure he’s come close to catching AG’s tops and bottoms the whole ride. I know he sold very near the top at 26ish.
If you look at the move from the low in March to the high’s on AG, yesterday’s price stopped right at the 50% retracement level. He was thinking right there would be good for some kind of a bounce. That 17 number is if price decided to roll over hard and not bounce much. I’d wager he’d say at this point, a double bottom around 20.40 might be the best AG will give us.
Regardless…Great trade Alex. You rock!
Poly and DG,Are you looking at an outright purchase of SPY or using options? If buying outright, why not check out SSO?
gold era,Read what I wrote in last nights report.
Silver still hasn’t even tagged it’s 10 EMA.
Gary,i see maybe some downside tomorrow and friday, since option week is always volatile. I feel the swing low may happen this week in gold.AG is suggesting so. I bought it yesterday because it was telling me that while silver was going up AG was coming down, it was way ahead of itself. Now after 5 days selloff and silver and gold retesting breakouts, AG is also telling me that we will not go below yesterday 1440 gold, silver is another thing it has been a monster.
GPL up 500% in 6 months and almost 200% this INT cycle alone. Very impressive, but that’s a lot of “hot air” to burn off.
It will likely have it’s day again, probably right around the time everybody finally gives up on it, we’re getting close.
Nice call on AG yesterday. Up $3 today. 🙂
I really doubt we are going to get a cycle bottom after only two days. Gold needs to shake off all the option buyers form last week.
Two mild down days isn’t going to do it. Heck we still got people buying. We need to see people panicking.
A tag of the lower bollinger band should generate some real fear in the sector.
@ Francisco – Yes, SSO is a good candidate.
Alex, I must remark you traded AG beautifully. We would all like out at the top and back in just right to catch an uptrend. A BEER for you!(with a lime slice?)
If this was the bottom of the cycle the miners would probably be exploding higher.
Gary,good pointi took my 2.4 point on AG and stopped out at 23.
I don’t presently have a position in AGQ but I was wondering if we have a drop in Gold and Silver, Would you recommend for someone to buy few calls of AGQ? Thanks
Moo Pai, I heard Gary say the other day not to buy AGQ calls as they were not liquid enough. He would suggest you stick with SLV.
Thanks for the big ol’ cup and handle on gold. Sweet chart.
Also, the rising trend from the start of this intermediate coincides with that target range as well.
Duuuuuude, SLV stock or Option? Thanks
are you suggesting a visit to +/-1400 on gold? (BB lower band)
Good Call Gary, Was able to clean out a few straggelers and get ready to add some powder at the bottom! Thanks 🙂
Sorry posted under wrong email..
What’s your best guess for this? We go lower next week?
I posted my thoughts in last nights report.
The spreads in the non liquid options can be huge and trying to get out at a reasonable value can be very diffucult in a decline.
So stick with liquid options like SLV, SLW, GLD and perhaps, GDX. Avoid AGQ, SIL.
Out of June SLW 45 @ 3.15. Now waiting for Gary’s call on SLV.
Stupid question RE: BB Crash / VTO
Wouldn’t it be better to buy the close (5 minutes before the close) when TA indicates that it is pretty much guaranteed of a close triggering the BB crash and / or VTO?
Reasoning for this is these situations would normally have a gap up at the open, which you can get that jump by entering at the close versus the open…
The returns are pretty much the same either way maybe a little skewed towards the open because sometimes it gaps down the next day so one gets a better entry.
I wanted to revisit some of my earlier discussions in light of the present and some posts recently.
You will notice how people are hopping around, in-out, shifting on:AG, EXK, SLW, GPL.
This was exactly one of my points before.
That point was that while there would likely be silver stocks that beat silver (there always are), they would be too volatile or dangerous to hold SINGULARLY (unlike simply holding ‘silver’).
Thus, the natural result (if you aren’t reckless) is you would have to own a BATCH of them together. Which means you are now in the game of picking and choosing your own ETF or index.
Once you then have a batch and no longer just a single stock, you have dramatically reduced the outperformance, if any, against silver.
You are seeing that EXACT process occur on this board as people get whipsawed in AG, drop GPL “cause it looks dead now”, back off on SLW “what’s with it lately?!?”, etc.
The problem is that if you start off building your own ‘index’ with multiple stocks like this, you can’t simply drop them one by one when they have some days you don’t like. Then you are right back to holding one or two where your risk has now shot back up.
You HAVE to take the **BAD** with the good and so now that those ‘burn bright’ flyers aren’t following through as much, you can’t just conveniently say “oh, well…i’m out of those now”.
What you are ultimately trying to do either in your account or in your head with this approach is create your own specialized silver trading fund where you constantly rotate and pick stocks in high speed as they come in and out of favor.
That is:a) a SECOND job completely added on to the first job of just trading the metalsb) a job with no guarantee of successc) something which even if you make extra gains can likely be surpassed just by a person going 1.2x or 1.9x or whatever in silver.
Just my comments on the topic now that the unhappiness with the stocks is rolling in. This was my earlier point and I encourage people to examine it now that it is happening in real time.
To reiterate before I get the comebacks:
1) I **DO** expect most of the mining stocks to eventually out perform ‘metal’ when the public finally comes in.
2) That time isn’t yet based on the general mining ETFs and indicies.
3) When it happens I’ll be right there on the boat with everybody else. I have NO issue with owning mining stocks under the right conditions.
Thanks as always.
Just read that options expiry is Friday.
Starts seem to be aligned, Gary, for things to continue to play out “along” the lines of the script you write.
P.S. – The SMT user base may be minimal in core numbers, but you are very well known across the “inside” circles. You are the “butterfly” (or one of the key ones at least) in the butterfly effect. Don’t underestimate the capability of one person.
TZ your post is bang on…actually I have noticed most of your posts are. Keep it up!
Excellent post TZ. Thanks for taking the time to write it. I’m finding what you wrote to be one of those “key” points in my early PM education.
couldn’t agree more.
Interesting chart by Chris Kimble:
My Reflection for this Morning.
I posted earlier that I took some positions off the table on the rise this morning. Took my portfolio from appx 92% invested to appx 70%.
Its a gamble, but having sat through several daily cycle bottoms, I prefer to take a bit of profit as it allows me to enjoy the drop knowing that I will reload all positions plus a little extra at swing low near the bottom.
What’s the risk? The market turns around and unexpectedly races ahead, and I have less skin in the game, but I’ve found that I’m not afraid to leg in at higher prices.
Over time using this strategy I find that its a wash. The money I make by adding lower is negated by the money I lose legging in at higher prices. Why do I continue then? Because I’m not a robot, and I tend to go with the tactics that give me the most comfort.
So, here’s to each down tick. May the cycle bottom be enough to cleanse the greed from the system, and may we be steely enough to take advantage when the oppty arises.
people spend way to much time on this blog trading and talking about mining stocks which they claim only takes up to 2-4% of their portfolios.
Seems to me people are doing it for the excitement of trading or to keep from getting bored.
You can get the same high return by opening a smaller position on gold or silver with a x10 leverage and not have to talk about xyz and qxy all day long.
My options take up to 30 percent of my portfolio when I’m fully invested. I wanted to post my sell b/c I posted my buy. SLW calls was a easy buy yesterday b/c the weakness and an easy sell b/c strength and the area of the timing band. GLTA
I’m waiting for the swing low to add the last drop.In the meantime, calm and relaxed, even if silver goes to 37$.
Any stops on the SPX BB Crash trade?
trader B, Some here have mentioned a tight stop below the 50 MA on SPY. Good luck!
did we just a swing of some sort on the Dollar Index?
traderRob:I passed on the VTO trade today since a 8 point gap up kills a lot of the profit potential.
The 4 day rule also kept me in check even though Gary said that it was not relevant.
Purely from a sentiment point of view, the market became very bullish very soon after an intermediate low. We have not seen a flush so far which can give confidence in buying.
Thanks, aviat72 & traderlady!
I was following Gary’s advice from last night as well as the fact that some of my proprietary indicators are telling me that too many folks are starting to get short. Couple that with bank earnings and the strange way in which the entire market seems to levitate whenever the TBTFs start talking their books… seems to me like we might have a bit of a run in the broad market, even if only for a week or so.
Not an easy job he has, but got to love the guy. A decent human being, for sure, who unfortunately doesn’t have much leeway.
A quick question please. An opinion about SIVR. No one here mentions it, yet two of the other advisory services I listen to, mention it prominently. Any reason why no one on this blog buys into SIVR. I do have a substantial position in it.Thanks alot all of you.
here we go!
If the Jul 11 SLV 40 strike call option is going for 2.07 and I purchase 10,000 shares. I would pay $20,700 for these options. If silver went parabolic before July 11, I would make $100,000 minus the $20,700 to pay for the option? Am I understanding this? When would I have to exercise or sell my option? I’m not doing this yet, but I want to understand the thinking for the time that a daily cycle low is close.
basil,that is complete bullshit. he is dragging the US to the path of socialism and if you have any sense socialism works as long as you have other people money, when you don’t puff… everything gone. Why do you think people are here? to diversify from the $US in real preserving wealth.Anyway, the guy is not for me and sincerely he will go down as the worst president even worse as Jimmy
Thats an interesting gold chart by Chris. I guess it depends where you draw the trend lines. Here is the same chart with different lines which makes it look wildly bullish. Purely for discussion of course. No movie stars sorry….
Gold break chart
Jay, may the Gold cup runneth over 🙂
Newbie to Blog and Premium…..If SLV July 11 Call for $40 is 2.07/share and I buy 1000 options, then I would pay $2070 for this. If a parabolic move in SLV occured before expiration, lets say to $50, then I would make $10,000 minus my cost of $2070? Is this correct? When is the expiration, July 11th or 3rd Friday in July? I’m not doing this now, but want to understand what might be possible at daily cycle trough.
I think that the wave just turned on the dollar…maybe we will be able to buy some AGQ quite cheap…
For today: If the dollar goes over 75.21, we will have a swing low
East Europe used to be socialist in the 1980s. You think that’s where he wants to take us?Btw, Jimmy was a great guy too.
I wouldn’t by the July 11/$40 Strike, that is a .50 delta! The ones you want is at least the $34 Strike.
Listening to Obama– (If he gets his way on the budget precious metals will go the moon) (or way up in more realistic terms!!)
I’m with marinho on this one, he’s nothing but an extension of bush. More wars and more bailouts. Mass media has done a great job convincing zombie public that theres actually two DIFFERENT parties Ha! What a joke!
So easy to get some guys jumping. Just say something sane.
Jeff, Marinho, Basil, Daniel,
Can you please delete your comments regarding the President? We really don’t need to start an new prolonged heated discussion here thats irrelevant for our purpose.
I am restraining myself from jumping in right now.
marinho wish this site had the thumbs up option available.
That guy is going to go down as the fastest 1 term president this country has ever seen. As soon as i heard him open his mouth i saw a big L on his forehead.
There is a good article on zerohedge about how during the presidential campaign he promised to cut the budget deficit by 50% before 2012…lol what a joke.
Russell,The July 11 SLV call expires July 15th. Current price is just about 2.50$ or 250$ a contract. So if you bought 1000 shares equivalent (10 contracts) it would be 2500$. If you bought 1000 options contracts, it would be 250,000$.Yes, if the price of SLV went to 50$ and you could time it well, you could sell near the top and make a lot of money.
I posted because it is very relevant to precious metals investing! Do not care whether people like or hate him!!
Moopai,I’m going to look for advise from this blog as to strike. I’m mainly trying to ensure that I understand the mechanics
Yes Lets Discuss!Sorry I did not answer your Question–
No, I will not delete :))
thanks NB2008…I am not really good at technocal but trying to learn 🙂
You do realize the only reason PMs are going up is because of our government and their decision to continue with fiat money? So to not discuss government is to not discuss the root cause of this bull market.
Yes, he’s made some very poor decisions, that is wherever he decided to continue what the previous administration started (e.g. war, QE). You sure are right about that.
And ok, I won’t make further comments, just wanted to give folks more reason to get mad whenever my name shows up on this blog 🙂
Basil,clearly you do not understand the forces of nature. Read a little bit about Martin Armstrong and you will find out why socialism is at the end of its run. As far as Jimmy everybody is entitled to its opinion. I have mine and clearly is different from yours. I am just listening to the president speaking about raising taxes and that makes me throw up, I know he is all lies. One good thing he has done though, he caused the rise of the tea party and i cannot thank him enough since he has awakened the spirit of patriotism. He is not going to get away with it.
Basil–I have not (and do not expect to be)MAD at you??Post your beliefs (and/or opinions) to your hearts content! :)))
Have you ever met a hippie that didn’t like herb? You’re ok with me.
I know that we’re all waiting for the daily cycle low to occur…and we’re little bored.
How about we keep the topics to trading ideas?
If anyone is interested, take a look at the chart of CAAS…it might ready for quick 10%
Look at GPR (GPL) over the last 6 months: early Nov. to early Dec. blast off; early Dec. to late Jan. consolidation; late Jan. to early March blast off; early March to today consolidation. Final c-wave blow off? Some say it will stall; I think the third blast off will blow your minds… 😉
Yes, TZ, I have a ton of HZU (AGQ). Jus’ sayin’ I think and hope that some miners will moon it!
Angry Hippie,appreciate your comment!
Marinho,Those are not tax increases…they are revenue enhancements 🙂And according to the president the only reason the top 2% is not paying more is because congress has not asked us to!Sheeeesshh…if only they had asked I would gladly sent in my check! Guess this whole defective is our fault after all.
kmisak,I believe that almost all the miners will “skyrocket” to the top of the C-wave. I sold GPL last week at 4.40$, I might pick up 1-2000 shares if I can at the cycle low.
@Mr. M. I have no idea if you are right; there seems to be a lot of divergent opinion and good arguments for both. I know TZ’s, SB’s, and of course our own GS’s opinions, so I have tried a smorgasbord approach, but plan to move more and more into HZU as the miners pop in the final wave.
kmisak;That’s why I don’t bother much with the miners. I am sticking with SLV, GLD, SLW & GDX.I have some ABX.to in my registered retirement account.
mdsn,how stupid can you be when you are trying to kill the golden goose? but, but wait maybe it’s the plan all along. mmmmm…. reminds me of the old communist/socialist plans.
guys, gales, please have a look, it is pretty interesting…my 2 cents as you say in American..
Is there something missing from the link?It did not work for me…..
Check your downloads folder Silverhound.
I have a good chunk of my portfolio in SLW. It didn’t break into new highs as gold did last week – SLW is kind of lingering.
Will you be moving some of SLW into HZU or do you still have faith in it?
Sticking with SLW, doing ok for me, down now but was up nicely last week.
sorry guys, it seems that it is cuting my link…will try again
it is killing me, it keeps cutting it!
I can get his home page, where to from there?
Oh well, I tried….
Obama has inherited from the worst president we’ve ever had. The moron, GWB, who drove the country’s financial system into ruins. He deregulated, leading to blind and irresponsible excesses and, then instead of letting things playout, decided to bail out the same banks etc instead of punishing them. Meanwhile he had started two wars that are still going on, lied through his teeth about one, utterly failed in the other. He drove the debt through the roof and left for someone else to fix it.
And you guys want to do the same thing all over again. Some will never learn. Capitalists in a bull market and socialists in a bear market, isn’t it?
Back to the present, while I’m no big fan of Obama’s policies, he is the only one standing between some hope of a good future for this country and the idiotic, short sighted, lying fundamentalists who want to pollute the earth, dumb down the population, disregard science and stifle innovation in this country.
I’m done with this now.
sophia,your link works just fine with copy&paste.
YLD, you’re kidding right?
Yup, I kinda like Trumps in your face style. If the middle east wants our protection, then fork over some cheap oil.
The price you pay for an option is the listed price X $100. So an option that’s listed for $2.70 will cost you $270.
Sophia, I have the new firefox and all I did was to highlight it, right click & pick show in a new link. Works fine from your original post.
Yeah, you can argue almost anything is likely by drawing long lines on a chart.
So many people take that stuff so seriously…but the Big Boyz know where all the obvious lines are.
Still, Kimble’s chart jives with what Gary is predicting for the immediate future.
thanks Driver…I typedit manually, but still missing a .pdf at the end…Basically it is an interview that is saying beware, lower prices in Metals but GREAT OPPORTUNITIES to buy lower for the long run…
Yes, Trump is bringing out issues that no one else has the cajones to address, including the SCOTUS.
Driver, no not at all.
yes i am not done especially when the posts are beginning to border insanity.democratic party operatives usually 1.SHIFT THE SUBJECT (please talk about Obama not Bush, he is the president now and has raised the debt $5 trillions in alittle bit more than 2 years)2. IGNORE THE FACTS ( you are talking about the president Obama who has indebted this country for more debt than any other president before him)3. Recur to NAME CALLING (GWB Moron) because they know they have not other argument and they figure they can shout louder they will win.
What the US needs as president is someone who is NOT a millionaire.All the rich care about is themselves and their buddies getting richer.
thanks for the worst prez’s link. I took the poll, voted, then viewed the results. Either their poll has screwed up the results or the American people are stoopiter than I thought. 70 percent voted for George Washington as the worst president. WTF??
We have idiots going to the polls, democracy is doomed.
Yes Lets Discuss;OK I will play along?
While GWB made some mistakes I would take him in a heartbeat over who we have now!
Both parties always seem to find fault with the other guy. As an example–Money printing terrible under Bush but Obama had to do it! (Please)
But–The right does the same thing– fallacious arguments and finger pointing!
While I am no huge fan of Trump -I am very excited to see him (hopefully) run. He will definitely shake -up the Republican debates– (Always a good thing)
I tend to lean more Libertarian myself!!
Have a great day!! :))
You’ve posted originally that you were 7 times leveraged. You said you started with 5 gold futures contracts and 1 silver contract.
Profits got you down to 6 times leveraged and you added another silver contract to get back to 7 times leveraged again.
With apologies to those who can look at this and see the answer, going from 7 times leverage to 6 times leverage means you made 16.67% each time, or 1.167×1.167= about 36% since late January.
While this is a remarkable return that many would be proud of in the real world, on this blog you are lecturing many people who have massively outperformed you.
As one of them, I can tell you that sometimes your manner of approaching things grates.
You are an extremely bright and talented person. Why are you sticking to 5 golds contracts when Gary clearly suggested all silver all the time well before this move even started ? I actually think it’s because Gary suggested it, just as he unsuccessfully suggested you change your trading techniques last fall.
Gold has only gone up about 10% from the bottom so far. Will you ever change this approach ?
I think it’s great Trump is out there getting the facts on the table and discarding all the lies. Voters will take care of the rest.
1) Probably better not to discuss. If you disagree, please see number 2 below2) They are ALL crooks, bought and paid for by GS, the other big banks and the rest of the large corporations.
We can talk about deregulation and how that allowed the banks to make a fortune, but brought down the world economy, and how we just bailed them out after the fact. Yeah, that all happened on Bush’s watch and his Goldman Sachs ex-CEO who happened to be Treasury secretary engineered the bailout. Yes, that sucked big time.
But when was Glass Stegal repealed that set up the terrain for the banks to run amok? It was repealed during Bill Clinton’s term.
And who is running the Treasury now, who continued with the TARP crap, and this is all happening under Obama’s watch?
They are all crooks, bought and paid for by the banksters.
Pima –Agreed–The degree of crookedness is IRRELEVANT :))))
Responding to your points:
1. Subject is debt, policies and future. I talked about who got the ball rolling here. Also whats important is not to repeat the same mistakes that were made then, and looks like will be made in the future. So the subject was not shifted.
2. I did say that I don’t agree with Obama’s policies. Our reasons may be different. I think it is you who is ignoring the facts.
3. Me, name calling? Yes, but read your previous posts. As you all do, simply ignore most facts, don’t look in the mirror, be as negative as you can be.
Every president try to get elected to sell something new to the public, but they end up doing what Senate/Congress wants.
It does not matter whether you are a Republican or a Democrat or Tea Party etc., you will do what you are told to do. So why are we arguing here.
Yes Let’s Discuss,
haha :))) I thought you wanted to not discuss this…?Hard to resist, isn’t it 😉
by the way–for those who care!my previous link is an article (study) by an economist–His finding!!
history shows that cutting spending in order to reduce deficits may be the key to promoting economic recovery.
GDX down/metals up. I am unimpressed so far. Seems like the low is still to come.
Politics and religion, cloud my soul.
yespermit me the reply.1. subject is Obama and his term as president what has happened under his watch, not GWB. He needs to own it, enough about “previous administration” “fiscal responsibility” “inherited” “saved or created” “you can keep your present plan” etc. etc.2. I am glad you do not agree with some of his policies, I do not agree with any except I am thankful that he is the president now and has awakened the conscience of America and made for the rise of the tea parties. I agree with you on one thing that most of the people in dc are not serving the people.Name calling is the preferred way by the democrats to try to win an argument. Are you a democrat? or better do you vote democrat?
In fact I agree – I’ve greatly disliked this ballooning of debt under Obama. However, I’d gladly take him over any Republican.
The reasons being,
1) Any Republican would probably have done the same thing with the bail outs. GWB, Geithner and Bernanke are republicans
2) I am a progressive person who cannot stand good science being denied and innovation stifled. I like clean air and water. I want people to be educated and smart. I hate lies and like facts.
3) I dislike the hatred that denies compromise about anything even if its good. And the sensationalist screaming approach taken by the right wingers.
4) I have traveled a lot and seen a lot of the world. The closed mindedness, inability to comprehend anything outside of a single view boggles my mind.
Yes, I said it and resist it most times, but it is indeed hard 🙂
Anyway, no matter how anyone responds, this time I’d done and staying put.
Geithner is NOT a republican!
BTW: Covered my PHM break even. Had a nice profit in it at one point but that’s the way it goes. Exits are hard in what is inherently an asymmetrical game.
YLD–Many on the right feel the VERY SAME about the left on the screaming. I agree with number 2. (Do not know anyone who would disagree)
Regarding TZ’s profits:
7X leverage start and gains resulting in 6X means TZ has gained 1X, 100%. The “X” is value of his portfolio.
YLD-Related to # 2I would not call myself a “Progressive” however.
On Friday AGQ moved between 260 and 266. Today it’s closing at 259. That is a 3% drop on the double silver etf and in fact a 0% move from Friday close to today’s close. Meanwhile some have even spoken of ‘waterfall decline’ here today. What am I missing?
I know that silver will steeply correct at some point, but for the time being I am holding and happy.
It seems too quiet to be done with this correction…Oil slightly back up after a HUGE selloff, so I guess more to come….
Gary,what is the # for the swing low in gold? I believe it is yesterday high since today was an inside day, but i cannot find yesterday’s range.
Ron Paul is not a crook, he has my vote if he runs (symbolically since i cant vote)
Another day done.Hoping for a down day or two.
Saw this on Turd’s blog:
Is that the new math ?
6(x+P)= 7x6x+6P = 7x p= (1/6)x p= .1667x
Silver’s high on Monday was ~41.90 and the low on Tuesday was ~39.70 Thats a 5.2% drop between the very recent high and low. Certainly not a waterfall decline. However, for the option, leverage and miner holders, its been a lot more if you look at it from the paper profits point of view.
I think (and would like it if) this is the midpoint consolidation, and we go down to ~38.
The strength in silver has been incredible. When it really falls, its gonna fall hard.
6X + P = 7XP = 7X – 6XP = X
just saying, from an intraday high on Friday or Monday to an intraday low on Tuesday, these 5.2% don’t seem unusual or outrageous.
I agree, when silver will in all seriousness correct the advance from July 2010, we better run.
At this point however I cannot help but think that the chart looks bullish still.
For sure, we need to keep one finger on the trigger at all times.
CMT, that chart you posted. The high volume red candle on the second touch of 39.56 looks a lot like buyers coming in at support. What do you think?
If I had to stick my neck out I’d say $275 on AGQ in about a week.
Yes and Wes,
If TZ is 6 times leveraged, let’s say all gold to make it simple. Gold goes up 10 percent. Wouldn’t TZ’s gain be 10 percent X 6, or 60 percent??
Change it to 5 gold and 2 silver, what has silver gone up, 25 percent? Then would he not be up (5 X 10%) + (2 X 25%) or 100 percent?
Yes, its still bullish no doubt. It may have been too bullish with the action on Friday and early Monday, hence the temporary correction.
According to Gary, until Gold breaks 1410, both gold and silver are still in the C wave.
If you look at Aug – Dec 2010, silver bounced off the 20EMA each time (I count 6 before the high).
I wouldn’t be surprised to see it come down to that average again. Today, its at 37.98.
I agree that just below $38 might be the line in the sand.
I think you guys are right.
So, I apologize for that comment, TZ.
But still, TZ, why aren’t you switching from gold to silver ?
Gold would have to break below $1382 before we would have to worry about the D-wave starting. $1410 would still keep the pattern of higher highs and higher lows intact.
I think TZ is in all silver now.
Gary,Swing low is determined by action and not price?
Lest you think different, I actually like you a bunch. I just find your manner condescending sometimes.
But I can live with it, so keep up the good work.
I like to watch the action on the 4 Hour /SI chart too. I saw that descending trend line off the high’s Sunday. I would think that since we are so early in the timing for daily cycle correction, that even break through it might not mean that much yet.
Back in March, we had the sell off hit the 10 day MA (roughly the top trend line) and then bounce. We had a second wave then sell off to the 20 ( aprox the 2nd line) and then the new daily cycle took off. (This all would be too easy. If it hit the 10 and never looked back, it would leave a lot of folks in the dust!)
/SIYou went to cash right? What’s your game plan?
Not sure if this is valid or not, but SIL & SLW look to have bear flags.
You finally won me. I think the best play for here on out is a pure silver metal play with a touch of my favorite mining charts. (10-20%).
Once this correction is over, I think scooping up our favorites for a core bull market run basket makes sense. There were penny stocks in the 70’s that traded in the hundreds by the end.
Maybe I’m wrong about that, too. I think I won’t open up my account today for fear of screwing that up, also.
You seem to expect Armageddon for the precious metals…i was wondering if we should start buying the stockmarket now as a lower oil should be benefic, but i am worried that if smart money has to offload precious metals and energy, it could be dragging the stockmarket down as well….
Yes, to your first point. If its all gold and gold goes up 10%, the net gain with 6X would be 60%.
Changing to 5 gold and 2 silver, its slightly more involved if its 6X leveraged. If you change to 7X leverage AND assume the value for each gold contract is the same as each silver contract, then your logic holds, the gain would be 5*10 + 2*25 = 100%.
It is proportional to gold/silver contract value ratio and the leverage factor.
MrMiyagi, the daily price range determines the swing low or high, not “action”. Gary explains it in the terminology on the premium site.
I’ve enjoyed a few of your posts, but your post w/timestamp 10:10 a.m.?? REALLY? REALLY??
I changed my pic,since those are fightin words! (LOL) ,I usually dont address anything negative,(Thats the REAL waste of time I.M.O.) but I felt it was directed at me (and others) because you threw in the a-b-c comment. So …
1) I have been asked in the past to post my trades, so I do. I’ve also been thanked . Then I was asked to include charts and explain why I did that, or what I saw. I wont stop for ‘you’,if others benefit…but ‘you’ can easily skip my posts (DUUUH):)
2)”Trading” is what helped me to quit my 40 -60/hr/wk job. I learned Trading the hard way,but developed a different way of trading using many ‘helps’ from good investors (Gary’s one) and would love to help others…my bad.
3)When the C-wave tops, and again after the A-wave runs out…The cash machine is on hold for maybe a year-bump & grind, up & down…you CAN trade that, or even another sector–so I need to stay sharp, focused…ready ( see photo) and I’m making extra money too, my bad.
LATER (like agriculture mkts)Gary has said arent cycle friendly… but if the bull goes there temporarily (inflation, shortages, etc) Do you have confidence Timing The Trades? I hope to through work.
4) You said, “…talking about mining stocks which they claim only takes up to 2-4% of their portfolios”.
I NEVER EVER said that. IF you follow my trades, I have posted maybe 60 to 80 on here…Decent % gains really..15%,20%,40%,60%..I dont go crazy leverage…BUT I am very confident when I get my initial various ‘set ups’ that I’ve developed …so I DO often go HEAVY, AGGRESSIVE. My trades/gains are worth it.I post so you can compare my gains to losses…it gives credability .
I never brag or talk % or $$..its not about that with me in a forum…I just want to share a few trades /ideas.
SEE WHAT A FEW PAIN KILLERS CAN DO TO A NORMALLY RESERVED GUY?? 🙂
I’m sure I’ll apologize in a few hours– J/K’ing mostly, but also a valid point about the future. (see the picture 🙂
Alex is only number 2 to Gary here. We need him
I think that you are playing very fair and it is grwat for people like me with no trading system to have a feel of what is going on. You are very kind to post your trades on this blog and to be fair, you are never bragging about it….So thank you for being a great trader with generosity…it is rare in this world
I meant scoop up our favs for a buy and hold after the intermediate decline is over this summer, not this daily cycle decline…FYI.
Don’t sweat it, you have nothing to prove here.
I go in pretty heavy too. AG & EXK made up about 20% of my portfolio, SLW is 35%, etc. I know you go in every more aggressively. Keep up the good work.
Let us just push the Ignore button for some who want to make trouble and tick off those we appreciate like Alex, DG, Poly, Veronia, and etc.(the good guys!)
Alex, you kick ass dude.
I bought EXK, SLW, and MVG yesterday but I thought AG was dead. Your gains in AG alone surely outpaced all of mine – well done.
Don’t worry about it. Most of the board here loves to hear from you about the individual miners. Those few who don’t want to, can skip the posts easily.
Even in this “not so good for miners” market, I’ve gained because of individual names and some of your calls.
On another note, I didn’t like the action in miners on Monday and Tuesday, and pretty much out of them in addition to all my options, thereby freeing up most of my account. Another major reason for doing that is I am going to move everything into futures at the next low (or chase it).
It will be easier to monitor the situation with 24hr trading cycle and just a couple positions.
The picture is not a bad likeness. Just need some shades:-)
Hope your back is doing better.
you’re a good trader and a good and kind guy. Always like your posts.
I didn’t get into the political discussion earlier, but I have a comment for politicians on both sides.
If you vote for the budget, then you’d better damn well vote for increasing the spending limit. To not do so is to agree to spend the money, then make it impossible to do so.
I regard this as making a contract and then not living up to the deal. No true gentleman or woman would ever do such a thing, IMHO.
If you don’t want to spend the money, vote against the budget. You cannot vote against raising spending after voting for the budget.
It’s just too unbusiness like.
End of rant.
Gary already posted.
Alex, I like the pic! I have used an avatar of a lioness but not on a trading site. LOL
I agree, you need the sunglasses. Cool Man!
I really didnt expect that! Thank you guys/gals for kind words. Amazing.If this blog ever shuts down, I go back to trading alone…what would come even close to this community?
Thanks to Gary
And really, I like RAZVAN, I was just messing around until the vicodin wears off 🙂
and of course I’m a little biased..trading really may come in handy later, and I enjoy it (my wife says I solve math problems out loud in my ,at cycle bottoms and tops 🙂
Gary posted so I gotta go read! Thanks again guys,didnt expect that- kind words mean a lot!!
Nice chart showing the correlation of this current correction to the March correction. Will it rhyme? Hard to say, but that’s why Gary doesn’t give up his position during the C run.
From Turd’s blog:http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-0P25jCdozZk/TaX6Zfs3Y-I/AAAAAAAAAuQ/SREz1GbAQN8/s1600/4Hour-Silver.jpg
Alex: I have taken a number of your trades, but I lost on one, so you are a rat! Please send me money to cover my one loss (actually, I don’t think I have ever lost on one, but you can send me the money anyway). 😉
Could you shoot me an email? It’s on my profile page.
Sophia,Not Armageddon. I just think the sector needs to correct hard enough to take out all the call buyers from last week. A tag of the lower Bollinger band should do the trick.
That BB looks miles away right now. The more experienced traders that have decided to stay long through this potential correction must have missed out on some huge gains by trying to sidestep these in the past.
I might have an expensive lesson in store for me in the next week or so.
Jay, I’m not all cash, I just trimmed up my account of some extraneous holdings. Down to more of a core, but only about 70% invested. Itching to load the majority of the cash into AGQ (maybe even a bit of margin) if we get a hard correction. I do hate to chase, if we don’t.
Hippie, that lower BB does look like a long drop. At least I’d know to (and hopefully would) buy down there.
Your calls are much appreciated! I made some coin on two miners you recommended just holding them for a week or so, NG and AXU. My only regret is that my position size wasn’t larger!
I hope we’ll make a bunch on this next move up out of the daily cycle low, but I’m also looking down the road and wonder how I’ll make the bucks when the A wave is done. You keep posting and that will help!
ANGRY HIPPIE and GARY-
Thx for the report,
Hippie mentioned from the report…“That BB looks miles away right now.”
And thats true, looks like cliff drop, but the good news is look at the March 16th(?)Huge drop to that blue line you drew. That drop is smaller than the one we need.Looks like March was $1430 to $1385! 45points. we only need $30!
Maybe a one day panic cliff drop reversal like that day would hit the bollinger band, shake out sellers , end this waiting.
I say this because miners started this decline, and AG looked strong today…maybe moiners retest high volume lows from Yesterday?
And Jayhwawk & I can buy EXK closer to $10 . Show them your EXK charts Jay 🙂
Solid observation, Hippie.
Even if I decided to clip some, I would not do it into weakness. That does not mean I am guaranteed to exit at a better price, only that I’ll do it into strength no matter what the price.
There are times when things collapse a further amount than what I make up in the rally afterwards, but more often than not I’m presented with a better price to exit (if I even decide to trim at all).
The Angry Hippie,
The story of “Old Turkey” is a beauty, ain’t it? I have read it a few times over the last couple of months and like it more and more.
I’m on the phone to my lawyer, he says I now have possible fraud/extortion case against you.If only I could get that in writing..
HEY! Just did! 🙂
“And Jayhwawk & I can buy EXK closer to $10 . Show them your EXK charts Jay :)”- ALEX
I was thinking the low $10’s myself, although I’m not one for specific price levels. If it tires from going lower around there, I’ll buy.
the lower BB is rising everyday though..
Alex, I usually dont’ do tips, got so many burn holes, but figured hey, It’s Alex, got some cash sitting around, twittling my thumbs, so I did a teeny play on AG. Thanks for the contribution to my powder keg Alex!
Anyone taking a move from this site, it’s their decision and they take ownership. Good, bad, ugly or beautiful. Nothing wrong with sharing it all as long as others are’t stepped on.
For those who want to bash others for doing their own thing, sharing their good luck, skills or knowledge with others, you might just be a “jelly nose”, or a “player hater”.
There is nothing wrong with sharing. We appreciate and admire those who can and do share their knowledge.
And my thanks to all of you who do share, with us newbies in training. We need all the good solid help we can get. So many out there wanting to take your money it’s nice to have a safe place to come with those who want to help you make money and share great experiences on the C wave ride here. Once in a lifetime ride for all here.
So let’s put the differences aside, everyone has opinions, just be respectful of others if you want others to view yours. It’s a great ride here and I hope to be on it for many years to come.
Thanks Gary for your great insight and continual patience to keep us on track.
Whooohoo, we got some crazy days coming up, let’s enjoy the rest of this ride (down) UP together!
when I look at EXK, I dont see a lot of downside left. It had HIGH volume on Monday, and went below that low tues on lighter volume (sellers drying up,and got bought back intra day a bit. today sideways.
I may take a position sooner than later. I figure if I was old turkey, I’d be in now..and this kind of shows signs of strength.
If it hits the 20 sma, retesting that break out with lighter volume..I am in.
The BB might look like a cliffdive away today but a couple of days of sideways movement and it will come up and tighten.
TZ, Well without much input from you, I now know your total invested portfolio value, and as a bonus from Poly, Yes, and Wes, your exact total returns to date from the Jan low.
Blogs are just a wonderful thing. The names change, but the faces remain the same!
Great job TZ.
With EXK, I don’t have a problem paying a higher price, either. More than the focusing on the price of the stock, I’d like to see a related index (HUI or XAU)get oversold. Some confluence between the stock and the miner indexes and I’m a buyer.
Jay, As nervous as you get at any correction, I just can’t see you taking TZ’s approach. You start shooting for home runs and you are just going to get burned.
Not trying to be negative, but you really have to think about risk tolerance.
PS I loved the Hinson Indicator!
Jay,I would agree. As long as you don’t get too leveraged you are fine. If you take on too much risk and the trade goes against you you start to freak out.
Better to fore go a little profit and avoid the melt downs.
im looking at my account and i want to put a standing order. if i put a order in at 39.50, 39,38.50, and 38 with a stop at 33 would that be reasonable. i cant stand not haveing some sort of a stop. and im talking about mini silver. i could even do a 30 dollar stop
What’s your hurry? Just wait for the cycle low.
ok .. i just figured if there was a washout that would be my best chance for a good buy. if i happen to be sitting there watching it im sure i would not make a good purchase. i would probably be buying at 42 lol.. but would a 33 stop be safe?i dont mind giving it huge room but i have to have something
You can’t set a stop until we know where the cycle bottom is.
Karl responds to Barry:
A couple days ago I think it was you that posted an extreme pullback price at around 190 on AGQ. Given Gary’s thought that we may only tag the gld lower BB line does that make your projection closer to 240ish? Is that where you plan to re-enter?
Thanks for your input..good to have you back.
It’s interesting to see folks’ methods of facing these cycle lows. I can certainly relate to DG just getting out and waiting. It’s tough to give up recently acquired gains.
The Old Turkey approach has it’s appeal also, because after all, it’s the total at the end that’s all important, not where you are in mid April.
I have compromised by selling down leverage, while still remaining substantially long. I will make money if silver goes up and lose if it goes down, but the big days are out of the equation for now.
I hope to be able to unload more into strength, but I also have a plan to slim down if we break contain. If Gary is correct about the decline being substantial, this strategy should produce substantially more gains than straight holding.
Of course if we open lock limit down, it really won’t matter. 🙂
WMP: Nope—wasn’t me. I usually don’t have a target in mind and trade more off tape action, volume, sentiment, and other extremes. For me, if a stock gets to “support” and the tape action, volume, and sentiment are wrong I won’t touch it, and I can’t know those variables until we get there. (Hopefully we won;t get to 190!)
I will re-enter when the lower BB is tagged or if something else like what I described above occurs. I will post when I buy.
I notice that favorable public opinion is getting quite high for silver, but less so for gold.
Which is more important ?
Silver will follow gold. As long as gold continues it’s C-wave advance there will be a steady stream of gold investors to come into the silver market looking for out-sized returns.
Well thought out, as usual.
Hey smart people. New sub here again.
I’ve been getting some education on options and I’m thinking about dipping my toes in the pool with 1% of my portfolio. I was thinking about buying a small at the money call and a small out of the money call, both slv july expiration, when the bottom hits. Like to do some learning through experience with little real $ risk as we enjoy the C-wave. Anybody mind sharing what your plans are for options? I can share my email if you like.
Thanks everyone for the learnin’. Things are looking up for me financially as a result of Gary and you all. Y’all are awesome.
Out of the money probably isn’t the best idea. The only time I would ever play with out of the money would be in puts at a parabolic top.
For the C-wave try one at the money and one deep in the money.
hey Alex,my comment from this morning was not specifically addressing you. It was added to what TZ was saying before.
The point i was trying to make was that you can have high returns by just holding gold and silver with leverage and without having to spend a lot of time looking at different charts, trading in/out, or assuming company specific risks. Of course, this will only work while the C wave is in play and we have these juicy weekly upward moves but once it comes to an end your strategy will definitely become more advantageous.
I thought painkillers were supposed to make you real mellow ? 🙂
Thanks a ton Gary. I appreciate your help!
Ok thanks Gary
Anyone else notice that we are about $.50 or around 1% away from new york highs for silver? If have an up day tomorrow we could potentially be making new highs… that would put an end to all this correction talk and force a lot of us into chasing this thing. Hopefully it doesnt play out like that…
Thats 50 cents away with this over night trading, as we are up almost 20 cents tonight.
No it would just mean the top hasn’t come yet. BTW watch gold, not silver. Gold is the cyclical driver of the sector.
If you could go back to when you started investing in the Nasdaq before the crash, but you were here, investing in gold’s C-wave just prior to a blow-off top, would you be doing exactly what you are doing now with regards to your current portfolio? If not, what would you be doing differently?
Today’s experience and market conditions but yesterday’s portfolio size and younger age.
Rob,You lost me on that one.
Welcome back sir… enjoying reading your comments on the blog. May I ask, if you don’t mind, what positions are you currently holding? Are you still long AGQ/SLV/GLD and at what percentage? Just want to follow your lead too. Thanks in advance.
LOL…sorry. I’m at work trying not to let the boss see me. 🙂
You are 35 years old with only $50,000.00 to invest. Would your portfolio be the same?
Gary or others with experience with DGP and UGL. Is it worth putting powder in these rather than GLD when the time comes to move from silver to gold?
Rob,We are invested in the only secular bull market left, what does age have to do with it??
at ease,Well the goal in converting to gold is to reduce volatility at a potential top. If you stay in a leveraged fund you aren’t really going to accomplish that goal.
Although you will avoid getting caught in a possible huge down day when the silver parabola breaks.
Thanks Gary, is it worth putting any powder in those two at the cycle low or stay with silver for now?
Doesn’t one’s age and the amount of money they have to invest influence one’s investment style?
Is is possible that gold could do something crazy like $1800/oz and will we (i.e Gary or Doc) be able to know when to get off, or are we just bailing out when we get to a less extreme number and be satisfied with our gains?
Younger investors can take more risk because they have time to recover from a mistake but I would still stay invested in the bull market.
at ease,I’m going to stay right where I’m at.
Rob, Hang in there with your 50k with what Gary advises. It will be the best investment you make in your entire portfolio for at least the next 5 years. I know it’s getting to be antsy time, isn’t it? Worry, worry , worry. I feel the same way, questioning, do I have the best vehicles, do I have enough in the correct stocks? Just trying to get ready for the down cycle and be ready to switch near the top. If I was home at my regular place with all my tools available to me, I would feel more comfortable, but have to play it safe with the best and least amount of plays while traveling. So trying to clear up any wasteful stocks and get into the best available stocks / ETFs for the plays left.
Do I seem normal to you?? lol
The pain killers that make Most mellow, make me think like I’m flying through a galaxy on Star Trek at warp Speed, only all those stars surging toward you are my many thoughts.Actually, hang with me and my friends, and you’d be kicking back laughing at nothing and just loving the little things in life.
You get to do this thing called life One time, so Its gotta be a good one 🙂
You ARENT WRONG in your statement about (quote) …”opening a smaller position on gold or silver with a x10 leverage “
I just ran with it. I actually had just read a post from you last night, and agreed totally, then i thought you “hit” me while I was at the doctors 🙂
Its all good, I enjoy your posts1
hmmm, that tells me I should move it over for max gains on the way up. Thanks
I don’t want to invest in South African blood diamonds or anything like that. Gonna stay the course but maybe be a little more aggressive.
Eamonn, Wouldn’t it be wonderful if Gold did go to 1800 and beyond and silver stopped at 49.00, 49.25, 49.40. We’d still be in there. As a wise person explained to me on this board, we can always ladder out our exits, spacing them out at percentages out at 47, 48, 49, 50, 52, etc 🙂And you can make those adjustments as we go up.
Rob, too funny. 🙂
at ease…I sent ya a mail :o)
True what you say, but at the same time the HUI and XAU are mostly Large cap gold miners, no?The silvers(sleak silvers) like EXK may lead…and AG. That actually looks like a true reversal.
If GOLD slams down $30 tomorrow, I (looking at Garys report) can see a bottom, but…Miners started the move down, could they be leading up?? AG.
IF…EXK is $16 to $20 in May, I would not respect myself waiting for it retest $10.50ish (which was yesterday) for the sake of pennies 🙁
WorkLess: I am 90 % AGQ and a smattering of juniors right now. I am at about 50% of where I was before gold topped out having sold a good chunk of AGQ at 265 and most of my juniors then too wherever they were at that time (sorry Alex!). I sold all my SLW at 46.25. I will buy a lot of AGQ when I think gold has bottomed and probably add bits on the way up. I may buy some SLW, but will be 90% AGQ for the rest of the ride regardless. No call options for me. No GLD. No SLV.
Thanks! Appreciate that.
I am coming to Sarasota in July with my wife and another couple. If I see all the sights and palm trees, white sand beaches,sunsets, seafood and beers at an outdoor eatery…but dont meet you-the trip will be missing something good.
Not sure of your situation, location, or schedule, but if it works for all…you are very kind and positive in your posts…You are invited to meet us for a chit chat /drink , and lunch …if possible. 🙂
Rob,best thing you can do is ask questions on this board. There are a lot of very good investor and traders here. I’ve been a investor for over 10 years and I’ve learned a lot from these fine people.
Gary, in your opinion, what effect will raising the debt ceiling have on the precious metals sector? Thx.
No, I love that…I dont know what % of your entire portfolio is 90% AG (like separate gold fund at 80% and separate spx fund) But YOU WILL DO GREAT…I.M.H.O. That’s a rocket.
Alex: I have one large wad of cash and don’t separate anything out into different accounts. I have no other assets worth mentioning (I don’t like to own a lot of junk) “90% in AGQ” means 90% of my net worth in it.
DG, if you have 90% of your net worth in AGQ please let me know before you are bailing out of it cos when you do the price will crash
Cute Eamonn! I wish I swung that big a line!
Silver broke slightly above the shallow channel it formed over the past three days on the 60 minute and back testing the upper trendline now. Looking for one more higher high before the daily cycle decline. Lets see if we get it.
DG, Why do you put it all on one? And no options? Will you swing it to gold when we get towards the top?Just curious as to why folks do what they do are there advantages?
Eamonn, that was funny… 😉
If one wants to get super-leveraged one can use options. I’ll be happy to make a pile this year and am happy to keep things simple. Leveraged in AGQ gives you 4 to 1 in silver. That’s enough. I won’t even go that far so don’t need options. If Gold rallies silver is a lock. Individual miners are not, even SLW. If i go that heavy I want to be damn sure my chosen vehicle works!
I will go 100% cash and not switch to gold when I thin k the time is right.
Late to the party here but keep sharing your charts and analysis, they are appreciated. It’s how we learn new tips and tricks from each other.
On the AG chart you posted. If you exited at 26 that was nice work. Do you mind if I ask what was your trigger? Thats a lot of distribution after the top!
DG, isn’t AGQ double silver?
Bob: Yes, so if you borrow 100% from your broker against your AGQ position it’s the equivalent of being 4-1 in SLV. Am I missing something?
Thanks for sharing. Please keep us posted on your positions. I love your investing style… keep it simple.
Sorry DG, must have missed you being 100% of margin with AGQ.
That is fascinating that you can buy AGQ at 200% as I have a 150% margin account and they tack a 50% premium against my margin account when I own AGQ shares, ie 1000 shares is treated as 1,500 shares for margin trading capacity. They told me it was a FINRA thing, all ultra ETF’s have this governor on them now.
Who is your broker? Mine is Schwab.
You cant see it on a wkly chart, but on a 1 month daily..you can see what I looked for . (it may not seem important to you, but I have never seen this trigger fail)
In 6 days it went from $19 to $26+…(Thats 40%, but when it happens, everyone wants in…its really overdone…so I looked at several things). Here, it gets more detailed in my head.
1)I’m riding a stock…on a 2 month chart we went from $14 to (lets just say )$20=$6 run
2)sideways move ,restart from the low and add your $6 run for A_B_C.
3) Low was only $19…so $19 add $6 is target $25…I sell any gap up over that automatically.
4) Gap on April 6…SELL open-dont look back…it WONT go much higher, rebuy lower.
I b ught $20.50 because
1) sell-off was HARD, panicky, capitulation like. ALSO..more important…
2) $14 to $26=$12 dollar run, pullbacl is 50%, or $6…SO…$26.50 – $6=$20.50
are you glad you asked??? There is really 3 more indicators, but enough for now,right 🙂
when all my indicators line up, fibonacci, volume ,etc…I am “Confident in the TRADE”, not yet a ‘buy and hold’, but AG now may be.
Hope that helps more than confuses! I’m on my laptop and cant post charts 🙁
And this trendline break AT EXHAUSTION …click on chart to enlarge
Thanks for sharing DG. I have to make this quick, I keep loosing internt connection tonight. Argghh, this better not happen at trade time. 🙂 Anyways, thanks, I am trying to get down to less is more for trading since I have limited internet access for the next 5.5 weeks now. Makes sense and will use your philosophy. Thanks!
cool – thanks.
Bob: You may have missed part of the string. I am not 200% long AGQ. I was explaining why I felt one doesn’t need to use options to get very heavy. A ton of AGQ would do it in my opinion.
DG, gotcha, have a great night.
Yes I am glad I asked lol
The measured move / repeating range, yes I know it well and use it also. And the MACD very stretched. I was just wondering if you automatically sold at the repeating range target or if you treated that as a “take no less” target and waited for another sell signal. You answered that with the gap up exit. Thankyou.
Waiting for the range to complete certainly makes it easier to hold through the wiggles.
yes, overstretched and trendline break, but REALLY, I had the target minimum $25 area, and the GAP open was the signal at that point that doesnt fail(with all the other stuff).
Its weird “real time’, because even on this blog, everyone wanted to buy AG.It was a harder sell reading the blog, than in the past haha.
I’m glad you asked too, and more happy that you followed that 🙂
Just saw the US dollar touch 74.68 in AH. Dang.
I know a lot of you sold out or sold half on fri/mon. I did trim some on Monday and now I’m having a battle with myself if I should trim some more before the “scary” correction? I’m not leveraged or have options. I’m about 90% in. I was thinking selling more of my miners and waiting for the daily low and then put it back in metals. Should I try to be cute or just old turkey?
Hey Rob,Just saw that, and I have a position on the Swiss Franc that I need to exit before the Dollar rally.
Ryan,I have a few option positions, that are longer out, but am considering dumping, taking the money and running.But the core holdings, I am doing exactly what Gary says; “Stay Put” and ride it out…
I do understand how hard it is to sell at the completion of a range when the crowd wants it to go higher but I have learned the hard way and watched stocks tumble while still holding!
Thanks again for sharing.
Silver did swing low in the morning.
anyone who wants out…silver popped past $41!
And there we go! Hi ho silver away!… lets see if it reverses or sticks now.
Excellent info, thanks for sharing!
I just copied it and saved it for future reference.
As a newbie, I have kind of a dumb question for you, but I’d like to know how a pro does it:
When you buy/sell on a gap open do you use a market order or a limit order?
I always use limit orders and the few times I’ve tried to buy/sell a gap open I always end up chasing up or down and miss the best price while I keep adjusting my limit to catch up.
Looks very much like we’re going right back to where we were on Friday. Yet, many here talk as if we are in the middle of a severe correction.
Last time I looked here, the word was to ignore all the top callers while riding this C wave to the end. Wasn’t that just about ten days ago?
At this point my best educated guess is that we are going to see $45 before anything else. As mentioned here yesterday, I expect to see $275 on AGQ by some time next week.
I did that too..copied and saved things that I wanted to look at until it really made sense. I always saw charts, and in hindsight it made sense, but I couldnt act on it until I saw it, or lived it.
2 things–1. NO questions should be considered dunb…if you dont ask and lose money as a result, thats unfortunate. 2. I am not a pro, just experienced from many losses and lessons.
I am in front of a computer at 9.30 Eastern (market open), so It gaps open and I just market sell. I used to wait and see what it’d do..and it gapped open ,shot up, and crashed often.
Now I close my eyes and sell. I know I will buy it lower later.
AND, I have also used limit orders and got semi-screwed. It moved down so fast that…say my “sell 2000 [email protected] $26.25” only sells 300 shares on the way down, then flies past, and itnever sells more— only sells partial.
I want OUT and Market orders get it done. 🙂
Interesting post. My new channel based on recent lows projects to your $45 target in 5 trading days. This recent possible daily cycle drop didn’t make it to the lower longterm channel lower trendline on the daily chart. My thoughts are if this recent low proves to be significant, we will make a much higher high, then finally correct into a cycle low that very well may be above recent levels. Either way my position still stays in tact until the market tells me otherwise.
I am now torn on AG- I had called an A-B-C-D pattern, so bought and intended to sell on a light volume bounce.
(See this,and click on chart to enlarge)
If gold sells off big, this may just go down to the recent low Tuesday, and retest on lighter volume. On my chart that would be A-B-C—back to the ‘c’ level, breaking it n light volume. I will be buying then.
Unusual strength in this stock so far.
That was supposed to be ‘A’ to ‘B’ to ‘C’, back only to ‘B’ level
Wow! Silver keeps climbing…up .71to 41.39
glad to see some one is on the same page as I am. Once we’ll get close to $45 I might get nervous holding AGQ, but the beauty about the double etf is that the double profit makes it easy to pull the plug early, even if I miss out on the last 10% before a more severe correction hits. As far as I am concerned however, this can run up to anywhere from $45 to even $60. Everyone is so focused on $50 that it could easily stall before or otherwise overshoot. Yet, $60 would probably be too lofty of a bet for me. In any case, once we hit $45 I’ll be sleeping with my finger on the trigger. What are your targets for coming highs and lows?
In other words, all I focus on right now is $45 and then see if anything indicates a correction.
Alright, someone help me out here.Are we going up, and not having a correction, or, is there a correction coming, then, all hell breaks loose, and it skyrockets?
all depends who you ask.
Thank You Obama, for the “definite maybe”…
You’re welcome. And there is no maybe in my posts if you care to read them.
I do read them, when you guys aren’t vilifying each other.Past my bedtime, have seals to stalk in the morning…
Didn’t vilify anybody. Just said that Obama and Carter are nice guys. That’s the opposite of vilifying. And with that I left the discussion.And I like seals too.
And here is a repost that clearly states where I think we’re at:
And to add, I think Gary carries a huge responsibility with this blog, so his call for caution is certainly wise, considering how many people and their money follow his advice. He’s got my respect for that.
Big buyer in HL in the after hours 635k shares @ 9.19.
G20 Finance Ministers Meeting today and tomorrow. How to stop the bleeding USD is going to be a topic for sure. Important numbers all due out at 8:30 ET. Initial Claims, continuing claims, PPI, and core PPI. A lot of figures to digest at once.
Good morning all.
My trading improved and was simplified when I finally learned to ignore those data entirely. Not only are they BS, they are not of an predictive value, IMO. Sure they move markets around for a short while, but sooner or later we get back to business. Reacting to news has cost me more than it’s made in my career.
Just one man’s opinion. 🙂
SB,Being where we are in the daily cycle, I’m just curious how these events will sway the market.
You really do have a difficult time reading Gary’s (and others here) posts an attempting to understand these cycles. Or you just love taking them totally out of context to make a point. You seem like a bright enough guy, so I assume it’s done on purpose, which is why many here see right through you and your motives.
SB,I completely agree with you. These numbers are created from formulas meant to make things look rosier than they truely are.
goodmorning S.B. and others.
Are we going to get our $9.5 intra-day price on EXK, or at least a $10 buy today S.B?
yes, the P.P.I.# and C.P.I.# are so phony…
My boss used to gauge our ‘cost of living’ raises by the C.P.I. # (inflation) and I would have to show him that since its …’excluding food and energy’, and they sometimes reflect 10%, I would need 2 cost of living raises. 🙂
I have to leave until 3, so buy it for me if we have a major sell off while I’m out, ok? thx!
Take care, Alex.
Gary – it is possible that we had a low on April 12 ?
Anything is possible but I’m not betting that way.
Looking at that $GOLD chart from mid October, corrections that did not tag at least the middle BB by the second day tend to head back up or muddle around before the final descent. We have had two relatively mild down days followed by an up day. Not at all unlikely that gold looks for new highs before the waterfall.
I’m not sure why so many people think gold has formed a bottom. We haven’t even come close to a swing low yet.
I observed Gold/Silver seems to have a near-term bottom around the option expiry date over last couple months, at least.
Would you agree and would this be a result of cycles?
im talking about bottom because copper hit trendline and may bounce from here
i know that there isnt a huge correlation between gold and copper but copper drive stocks up and gold generally is rising when stocks are rising
also i see pretty strong support for gold at 1451
if not then 1442
thats why i think that we may have low for gold
I wouldn’t put a lot of stock in trend lines. Gold will usually break them as it moves into a cycle bottom.
The entire sector is volatile enough to where most TA just doesn’t work.
Gary, assuming we get a swing low very soon … would you consider April 11 the bottom of this daily cycle or do you think there might be more downside even after a swing low at this point?
i hope you’re right Gary because i’m reduced from 100% to 45%..
since april 12 gold is making higher highs and higher lows
will you change your mind if gold breaks 1465 which would be another higher high since 12th april ?
have margin requirements on silver futures increased? TOS says this morning its $14,681.25 for one SI contract?
Gary,please put a number in your report tonight for gold to form a swing low. I know it was the high on tuesday, but I do not remember exactly the range of that day.
People I think many of you are attaching some kind of mystical power to a swing. A swing has to form before we can have a bottom but it’s not a guarantee of a bottom.
Fortunately I’m still holding my positions but if we start breaking new highs I’m going to start leveraging back in. We could easily just keep pushing up here for a few more weeks and that would mark the intermediate high for this season.
I’m new to Gary and his cycle work but I’ve been at this for just under a decade and what ive learned is this market always works in a way to ensure most people don’t make money and in a bull market the surprises are always to the upside.
marinho, the Kitco chart shows it.
Most of us here have made incredible amounts of money 🙂
Gold has traded higher 8 of the last 12 days. Silver, 10 of the last 12 days. Dollar has traded lower 8 of the last 14 days.
There is serious talk of Greece defaulting and not a peep out of the dollar. Interesting.
Miners still underperforming gold (e.g. GLD up/GDX down) I am not buying that a bottom is in yet. Silver acting great. Fine with me if I re-buy just a tad lower after gold bottoms. Shows remarkable buying power underneath to be holding better than gold.
I had a dream that I was being chased by a bear last night. I think this is proof enough that a bottom is still ahead of us.
Yes we have done a lot of money ..
I have sold 50% and may assume that we might get a spike up and then I will miss some. But I can take that..If we go lower..I add!
But I’m already happy with what I earned on this C-wave and everything in the future would be a bonus for me!
Silver has probably reached the irrational stage where it’s being driven higher simply because price is rising.
I’m not seeing shortages at the dealers anymore so I’m assuming there is now plenty of supply coming back to the market.
Of course that doesn’t mean silver won’t go much higher. (I still expect to see at least $50)
Heck oil went all the way to $147 with massive over supply. It just means once sanity returns to the market silver will fall hard.
Thanks for your post. I am sitting here contemplating whether to increase my position size, but reading your post slapped some sense into me.
well another higher high after 12th april is made
i see resistance at 1465 if this level also breaks then i’m damn fool that i reduced position today
Say hello to new highs everyone! Disappointed I went from 150% to 100% as posted on this blog but such is life. Wouldn’t be surprised if we just rise here for a few weeks into a blow off top.
As a side note, strong rumours that Greece will default again and still the dollar can’t catch a bid!
Always glad to help a fellow Tucsonan 🙂
Please lets us know when the bear catches you. And for heavens sake take a gun, and make sure it has two barrels!
Best of luck.
Gary, are your comments referring to what you’re expecting in the daily cycle on the way (still) to a bottom? That is, you’re not modifying your plan? Thank you!
People putting too much weight into hourly and daily moves, second guessing their motives.
Remember everyone that Gary has only sold a little bit of his holdings. I and others have sold more. I for one am happy to buy back higher if need be. My first purchases were at AGQ 128. If it goes to 375, missing 5-10 points is no big deal. In a bull one should not sell unless you are comfortable buying back higher if you are wrong, or you may miss the big moves. For me, it seemed clear that the expectancy was negative, so I sold a bunch. Trading is a game of odds and the odds said “lower for now.” I am not buying a thing here but am preparing myself mentally to buy at the highs should it start to seem right. I will post if/when I do.
I forgot you live in Tucson too. Great place if you like sunshine.
It looks to be another day to sit tight in my accounts. I’ll only add if we get more down movement that brings us somewhat close to the levels I mentioned yesterday. (215-216 on the XAU and 565-567 on HUI)
Unfortunately I am not living in AZ right now, but I will always consider Tucson my real home.
DG & Poly, helpful, I am prepared to do that too, thank you
For those wanting to increase position size at or after the expected daily cycle low:
What will you do (if anything) if silver makes a new high here?
How about gold, if it puts in a new high?
My plan was and is to convert some AGQ to calls on SLV. When I think the daily cycle has bottomed I will buy the calls.
Of course the best way to do that would be to sell the AGQ at the top of the cycle and buy the calls at the bottom. Unfortunately it’s much easier to spot a bottom than a top.
As of right now I don’t see anything that looks like a daily cycle low. I’m not even sure we’ve seen the top of the cycle yet. I always kind of figured gold would make it to $1500 before dipping but the swing the other day was my signal to sell the other 8%.
Was the swing a fakeout and the top is still higher? It certainly could be. If so I’m still heavily invested so I’m not worried and I will wait patiently for something that looks like a bottom before buying the calls.
Hmmm…. sure looks similar to a few morning moves we have had lately. Dont all yell at me at once, But, the gambler in me is kinda thinking of scalping a few gold and silver contracts short here
Don’t even think about it! Gary will give you a thorough trashing!
I sense a nice little bull trap, but that’s just a hunch, I’m sitting idle.
Why would anybody yell at you? Saddle up! 🙂
Sorry to hear that, Jennifer. May you return to the land of eternal sunshine soon.
Gary- is the BB crash trade still in play on the SPX? Just wondering what the requirements are to cancel/delay the setup. Thx
The rules for the BB trade and VTO trade are in the terminology doc.
Sb,I was kidding. but I have great confidence in Gary’s system so I keep seeing his warnings in my mind.
however I did short SI at 41.37 for giggles….we will see.
Thanks Gary for your comments on your comment. To my less experienced eye, like others, it looks like a trap before a dive, but who knows…
correction, short filled at 41.355
Me too…got stopped out of my short eur/usd on this asian session and now it is well below, so I am in standby looking for better entry….
Gary: Why the switch from AGQ to SLV calls? To protect your downside if you mis-time the exit when silver crashes after the parabola pops?
Gold @ 1467.5 swing official.
No just to add a little more oompf and decrease margin.
Wow people going short silver here? Lol so much for never shorting a bull market and were not even at anything that appears to be a blow off top
Couldnt help it…had to sell some long bonds….
I read the VTO definition and then tried to do some additional research on the internet, because I really don’t understand it. All the links are to older pages on your previous site. Is there a book that goes into more detail about that?
I know it seems simple to you, but you are an expert and the concepts are easier for you to grasp.
Really wish people would stop and read the posts.
if miners are actually lagging the metal, how is the accuracy of using this fact to predict an imminent correction in the metals? Eg. SLW has been lagging silver of late, and an daily cycle low is approaching, therefore is using the miner accurate to predict the impending correction in gold/silver?
Look at that $40 option !
We could have been a contender.
We could have been somebody.
Elaine,No books that I know of.
It’s pretty straight forward. Buy when the 5 day RSI closes below 30. sell when it closes above 50 (conservative exit) or 70 (more aggressive exit).
We are now deep in the timing band for a half cycle low. The market is extremely oversold. Sentiment is quickly becoming excessively bearish.
Those are the reasons to take the VTO trade.
Xau/Hui both outperforming gold %wise this morning.
@ WES…go jump
Alittle confused in here…. Obviously the PM’s haven’t dipped into their cycle low’s yet. But the miners have taken a big hickey and are now rallying back. Thinking double top in the miners might be coming our way. Thoughts?
Wes: You left out “instead of a bum…which is what I am….” Tough game you guys play!
How much is gold correlated to the dollar’s intraday moves? How close does the dollar have to get to 74.17 before we can say it got there?
ok, I am out of the short. That was a stressfull bit of beer money! lol
Gary, as far as the daily cycle for gold, we’ve got about 7 days or so to find a bottom, correct? Do you still think that we’ll have a strong correction after the top (whenever the top is in)? Thanks
Option,I do think we will have a scary correction. Another push higher here will just embolden longs and make the correction all that more painful especially if option buying increases above what we saw last week.
The dollar hasn’t even rallied yet. And don’t forget a cycle can stretch so the bottom could drift out to 30+ days.
I try not to get distracted by the dollar when trading metals. Yes, the dollar affects metals, but then I also have to know where the dollar is going AND that the usual relationship will hold up. Too many moving parts to be of use, IMO. 🙂
We’ve seen many days, and especially in the last several months, where the dollar is up and so is gold. (and vice versa)
Others may not agree with me, but keep it simple. The USD will generally move counter to gold, but it’s not of any predictive value to me. Hope it helps.
Look at AGQ go!
Nice cover msdn. Making some beer money sure beats losing beers. 🙂
If prices rocket up, I’m well placed.If prices drop, I’ve got cash left.In other words, que sera sera.
Anyone,Does a daily cycle low have to close lower? or does an intraday low suffice or maybe a strong test of a previous low?
LOL, that’s like me saying to you, convert rgb to cmyk and make sure that the pixel aspect ratio is 300. Sounds simple, but means nothing without more knowledge.
Anyway, I’ll stick with the basic stuff.
MrMyagi has the right idea if you ask me. It’s pleasant to not have to worry, either way he’s a winner.
That’s it for me today. I’ll check in this afternoon. Good luck, ladies and gentlemen.
Damn that Old Turkey!
Hai, Shalom-san…Have a good day.
I’m curious about your reasoning for converting some of your AGQ position to SLV calls. Are you doing this to get a little more leverage? (Using deep in the money SLV calls, you can get about 3x, or even 4x, leverage, whereas AGQ is only 2x.)
Damn BRICS! I didn’t expect dollar toilet paper this soon but you never know. Maybe $40 will be the silver-dollar low for years to come…
Gary—A question about the “scary correction” idea: If we need to go from “too many bulls” in silver to “hysterical bullishness” perhaps a scary correction will reset the sentiment clock too far. A mild correction will allow us to get to 98% bulls more easily. If bullishness drops too far maybe that will take longer. I can see it either way. Has there historically been a scary drop before a final parabolic leg starts? Do you have such data easily available?
PC: I asked that question a few posts ago and Gary answered it there.
When you are ready to buy SLV calls, how far out would you go? 60, 90 or more days?? Thanks
Nevermind, I see you answered my question re SLV calls already.
DG,I think a tag of the lower bollinger band would accomplish what I’m looking for. It would clean out all the too leveraged players and set up a strong final leg.
I haven’t actually checked it but Doc has mentioned that a cycle low needs to break the short term trend line. That hasn’t happened yet.
Sounds like the Angry Hippie lightened up a few days back and is stuck hold cash…….
I’m sharing your pain here. One of my emerging silver producers I have 30% of capital in went into a trading halt yesterday to announce a potential capital raising. I thought I was safe until end of June.
Damn Junior Miners!
Gary said “I’m not sure why so many people think gold has formed a bottom.”
looks like we know now. and looks like not always public is wrong.
Jarek, in my experience, a post like that is almost guaranteed to mark a short term top. We shall see.
Bought a bit about half hour ago, am slightly into leverage now. Will not be sitting on my hands with “only” 100% waiting for a correction as we contine into new highs after this recent small correction. Will continue adding till i get to 150% if we consolidate/continue higher next few trading days.
If this is a bull trap, will keep everything I have for any cycle low.
Good luck to everyone!
J,Not that we’ve formed a bottom. It’s more likely gold is stretching a little and hasn’t formed the top of the cycle yet.
That’s why I said to beware the swing. A swing is necessary for a top or bottom but not a guarantee of one. If gold goes on to make a higher high I would be more inclined to think it’s still in the process of putting in the top of the cycle.
I just don’t think two down days is enough to qualify as a cycle low.
Before you wind up to 150% ask yourself if you can realistically weather a $6 drawdown in silver at that kind of leverage.
My guess is you will not be able to survive and will sell at the bottom.
Not that we have to see $6 but one had better be prepared for the worst case scenario if they are going to leverage up before ever seeing anything that even remotely looks like a cycle bottom.
Where is a margin raise when you need one?🙂
This really feeeeeels like a trap, especially with options expiration friday. Unfortunately when anything feels like anything to me, its almost always the other way. Oh well, doesn’t matter too much to me either way, I’m still 75% in.
SLW says “Nah, I’m good. I think I’ll sit this one out, thanks.”
CMT well i hope you’re right because i dont want to buy at current or higher prices.
SB – agree. don’t use the USD as your only indicator in metal trading.
so far so good.
adding at 1450 in gold this week was ok.
will be taking off half miners next week if they can make a push higher HUI 620
then it’s time to go on vacation
If I were to add more leverage my stops for the leverage will be at these levels. Anyways by my calculations, based on your stated portfolio, it would appear you still have more leverage than me ie. ur still in at around 120% no?
It’s right around this time we should get a nice “rumor of margin hike on silver” or “Goldman Sachs advising clients to short gold and silver” or “we have some BS budget deal”, etc.
J – we’ll see. If I had thought that, it would have guaranteed a $15 drop. Guaranteed. 🙂
I am currently wallpapering my office in trade confirms accumulated while i exited most of my positions earlier this week. Oh here’s a nice memory of selling 60% of my AGQ @ 261. I’ll make sure I put that one where I can see it, right next to a picture of a turkey.
Truthfully, I am not too worried about it. Things go up and down, I don’t think we’ve seen the bottom yet. I am comfortable with cash for now, and monitoring action by those with more experience on this board.
Using stops this late in the cycle is just asking to get whipsawed.
I was asking you if you could weather a draw down of $6.00. I am very deep in the green. A $6 draw wouldn’t even come close to triggering a margin call.
If you can’t say the same thing then maybe you need to reconsider 150% leverage and go with something a little smaller so you don’t get knocked out of your position in the event of a sharp move down into a cycle low.
I am very deep in the green also as I got in again in January but sold my 150% to 100% a few days ago. But no I would not give up those gains as my whole issue is I do not believe we can correct $6 from here. We will not go down to $35 silver and then go to $50 either (1) all within the next 6 weeks or (2) into June/July (the worst months for PMs). My opinion is any major correction here means we are done for this season and head into the summer doldrums. /Jmo
You mentioned while back that you will be in Los Angeles for a meet sometime in late May. Would you care to share with us the exact date so maybe we can set up for lunch or dinner to celebrate your Gold Metal Champ?
A $6 correction wouldn’t even take silver back to the 50 DMA and would test the breakout. It would be a 14% correction.
That doesn’t sound like an unusual move for a daily cycle low, especially considering how far silver is stretched above the 200 DMA.
If it were to happen and you were 150% leveraged you would get knocked out of your position and give back a huge chunk of your gains up to this point.
Experience has shown me that the time to leverage isn’t when something is making new highs but when everyone is panicking. It’s safe to say no one is panicking yet, so I will just continue to wait on my SLV calls.
I admire your confidence.
I hope your plan comes together.
I’m off to bed, it’s 1:30am here. Night all.
Heck, I just want it to go to 38$ and get it over with. I will pile on at the bottom and hold on for the C-ride.
It will be at the Team Crossfit academy in Monrovia CA on May 22.
I am on the SPY VTO trade and shall add if it goes lower. It is earning season and expect a rally.Ah oh, the word “expect”.
SB, Yesterday, I thought of you and the HUI was looking like it was coming to your 565, today diff. but now I get the feel it shall, Buddy !
ANGRY HIP, Liked your wallpaper post, LOL. I sold some AGQ also but buy back too, no problem.
ALEX, It would be a “great” time to meet you and “Demi” in July.I expect to be here enjoying the peace once the tourists allleave after filling our tax coffers. LOL I live in southern Sarasota and you will laugh but my community starts with “SILVER”. I am outgoing and can certainly direct you to all the right places for relaxation in Paradise. I am good at it.
Alright I’m off to climb some rocks.
SB – Thank you! Was away, sorry. Very helpful.
Angry Hippie,I’m in the same boat as you, only at a slightly higher sales price. What makes me comfortable is that if you look back over the last 21 days in this cylcle, AGQ has hit a daily low below 253 every day except today. You’d have to think that we’ll get an entry point below where we sold early this week. I still have faith in Gary’s analysis that we have not put in a new low, but even if we have, I think we can always jump back on within a few dollars of our exit.
Anybody have any ideas why SLW is lagging?
Its easy to think we’re off to the races, but here are a few points agianst that view.-The miners are underperforming by appx 1/2 today. -Gold hasn’t made a new high.-And most importantly for me, this bull will carry as few riders as possible into its last hurrah. So far, the cleanse has not come. The only way for a parabolic rise to happen is to have players chasing. As of now, most participants still carry pretty hefty positions. Yes, I realize the public is not on board, but relative to the participation thus far, it is currently fairly high.
I will be selling more into the 43 dollar range on silver. And again 45 if we get there prior to a correction.
Added silver futures again about an hour ago (on a chasing buy – which rarely works well. We will see. Small stop.).
I think the low was 2 days ago due to the extreme volume on the selloff (and as I mentioned on the blog).
We have a swing in gold today.
Whether that ‘low’ as I’m suggesting two days ago was the CYCLE low or whether it was just another jiggle on the way to the still forward cycle top remains to be see.
Regardless I think it might be a point that holds although my buy in here is at a crappy level.
If that WAS a shortened cycle low (gary can determine that stuff), then perhaps we are now set for an EXTENDED final cycle up which will be extra juicy?
I think gold and silver are congesting here right now for one more move up before this afternoon’s close.
This is interesting. I didn’t intend to get to any particular level as I was delevering earlier in the week, but I have arrived at about 100%.
With option exposure I was never more than about 130% of my account, but I was 3X levered.
If the Google earnings report is excellent, I think a run on the markets might be in place.If the report sucks, then it will start dragging the market down.Tech stocks are quite the draw for the mainstream.
One possible interpretation of the squiggles is that an ABC correction is playing out.
The move down that bottomed on 4/12 was the A wave. The B wave is in progress and very likely topping out later today. The C wave should bottom only slightly lower than the 4/12 bottom. 1440 or a little below would fit.
TZ, if you’re right about movement this afternoon, I may cut down my AGQ by half this afternoon.
Angry Hippie, Francisco,
I’m in the same boat as you guys. Sold most of my holdings on Mon and Tue, with a view of converting my miners and options to futures at the cycle bottom.
But I am also prepared to chase higher. However I certainly wasn’t expecting the action we are seeing today…it seems too soon. Don’t really want to, but thinking about jumping in a bit with gold and setting the stop right below it. Would be glad to get stopped out.
Incredible strength in silver. Feels like the massive shorts are throwing in the towel and sentiment wiping be damned.
I’m flattered you guys trying to work out my leverage and gains
My leverage comments were never meant to confuse.
If I say 6x, it means i’m holding 6 times (of something) whatever my net worth is.
$100,000 net worth at 6x on GOOG means you would be holding $600,000 of google stock.
If google went up 1%, you would be up 6%. Simple.
The reason this type of metric is more appropriate then how much ‘margin’ or otherwise a person is using is because depending on the security you can get different levels of leverage for the same margin.
Stocks allow 2xSingle stock futures allow 5xFutures 20x (depends)Options – all over the place. Depends on a bunch of factors and isn’t linear.
TZ, whats your stop?
Miners not confirming at all. (TZ I don’t want to hear it!) Really, they should be popping better here. A couple theories–Options expiration passes and they run hard next week (assuming this move up in silver is still gonna go.)
I’m seeing bear flags on the silver miners. When looking at the 60 minute SIL chart, I measure the target and it nails the blue trend line.
Possibly starting to move up into another rally leg before volume dies off this afternoon.
Regarding stop, I usually use levels near previous lows (like most people). So roughly around the lows of the last hour or two.
PS: increased my silver futures by 30% on this buy…just like on 2 days ago. So far holding and looking good.
The high to today touched the 78.6% retrace almost exactly. A decisive move above $41.49 would suggest higher highs are likely. I have no idea how high we could go, but trending channel lines seem pretty good targets for turning points in the timing band of an expected cycle bottom. In fact the recent high was at the 50% channel line on the daily… as I post I see we are breaking this mornings high. Lets see what happens next.
Your 275 AGQ call could come even sooner than you thought.
Let’s Discuss,I agree that this move is a little disheartening after selling, and I am surprised by the strength in silver this morning. But, again, unless this things is a straight line up from here, we’re bound to see get some comparable entry point in the future.
I’ve seen this movie before.
Mining shares not feeling the love. Very interesting.
Yes, Francisco, Hippie, you don’t know me but that makes at least four of us out (close to Mon. high) and awaiting rebuy. Not entirely comfortable with the SLV options without instructions on specific strikes to buy, etc. Although 3X or 4X sound better than 2X, but I’ll take the 2 from AGQ…
How does it end, Poly? With me on a yacht?
TZHope you’re right. I eased out of a bit this morning as didn’t get enough done earlier this week. May use an afternoon push for a little more…
Yes, one with a helipad too
This is best cushy seat I have had since I started trading with SMTP. All locked and loaded and ready for bear!
The future for the U.S. is starting to look very bleak. Wonder if we will turn into a military state internally. Wishing I would have exchanged my greenbacks for Canada & Australia currencies…
I’m back up to 6-7x leverage.
Just curious anybody lightening up here?
Poly – How did it end?
W… I did the same thing. Would have liked to have unloaded a bit more SLW, but the rest is still in the red. arghhh. I am just hoping that one will move more with the C wave heading up.
Ryan, if you have some profits and want to lighten up (get rid of some to have powder for later, yes, I did).
I’m not an experienced trader, but I’m selling into this strength. I dumped a block at 270 and some more at 272.50.
Anyone know what was the high last week (overnight) for silver futures?
SSRI (no position)just went RED.
Ryan, I got rid of a few laggards and cleaned up my portfolio, so I could have powder for the cycle low to get into more Calls and back into some more AGQ at a lower price (hopefully). And took some profits with an account balance up high, so very happy to have a high balance and powder to blow on the down cycle if that helps.
Steven – $41.975 on TOS
I don’t know your “X” is and don’t care about it either, but some did comment on the number of contracts you hold. Don’t know if those are full, mini or micro. Either way, it was just to explain that your gains are good, not tiny.
I sold some AGQ too.
I know…couldn’t resist. I jumped in a bit here with a tight stop.
Care to tell us the ending of this movie? Bull trap or bear trap?
Ryan, I was thinking about it, but haven’t yet. Not real sure what I’m looking for; more of a feeling. Which likely means the best move will be to fight my instincts.
Question: If we’re supposed to be awaiting a dollar low, and it’s not there yet, then we are expecting gold higher yet before it corrects fully, aren’t we?
Gary says Gold will top @1500 before cycle low develops. I will continue to hold till then. Just because some of you taking profits gives me more confidence that we haven’t seen the top yet. If you were buying options today, I would definitely sell here.
Man look at them fly…we will see what happens at the Monday highs.
I feel ya. I think it can go seriously lower very soon. But what if that doesn’t materialize and the low is already in? Gary always says the surprises come to the upside. Thats why I got in a partial position with a tight stop with a hope of getting stopped out.
BIG number on GDX on SoS list today. And GDX is at the top of the list.
@Yes + Farmgirl, it ended soon after with a cycle top and exhaustion. We’re not even at the highs of last week, so who knows, could have more in the tank 🙂 Open to alternative scenario, time will tell.
Guys, just came home for lunch-
No time to catch up on the blog, not sure what you think…I see GDX looking strong…volume Will be indicating good buying.
I am getting some stock buy signals, but it may be a double top that happens. PAAS and CDE looking like crap, others very much improving!
I added to EXK and AXU is on a buy, increasing volume off the bottom…retested the slam down Tuesday ( on a 3 day chart/ 30 minute) with lighter volume yesterday, nice volume off the bottom today. Bought AXU
wish I could explain more.
WAS going to sell my new AG on the assumed “light volume’ bounce,Volume is too strong tho..holding on for now.
Have to leave again. Later
Jayhawk, sent you an email explaining a little more, see what you think.
good day all!!
Michael, You’re probably right that by me selling it means there is more to go. I’ve learned that I can’t top-tick stocks, neither can I call the exact bottom.
Let’s Discuss,Again, I’m not an experienced trader, so take my comments for what it’s worth. I have no problem jumping in at a higher price once I feel more comfortable that its the beginning of the next leg up (with confirmation from Gary’s analysis). I’m not afraid on missing out on a little upside though in the meantime if I’m wrong.
I sold some SLW yesterday at BE but I would have liked to have gotten rid of the other slw late entries. Oh well! I did trim some AGQ on Monday and I’m really tempted to take a bigger chunk off here. Gary’s words of a big scary correction is ringing loudly at the back of my mind!
Big SoS on GDX: highest that i’ve seen
Gary is going to be correct once again – we’re going to have a bloodbath soon
>I don’t know your “X” is and don’t care about it either, but some did comment on the number of contracts you hold. Don’t know if those are full, mini or micro. Either way, it was just to explain that your gains are good, not tiny.
Whey I say “X” it means MULTIPLE.
It doesn’t mean “I’m trying to HIDE something. I’m being a dick. Good luck guessing! so THERE!”
No idea why you are pissed or think I’m trying to brag about something. The people on this board tend to post when they add/increase, or whatnot. That’s all i’m doing. Lots of uncertainty in what is happening and I’m just contributing what I’m thinking and doing.
As for your calculation of my gains somehow being much smaller than everybody else while I’m playing the same precious metals as everybody else, on leverage. Well…I don’t know where you get that.
This is pretty confusing. On this entire move since January, silver has not registered as overbought once on the metrics I use.
I’ve even calculated overnight highs as though they happened during N.Y. market hours and still, no overbought.
Again today, we’re not near overbought levels. In fact the recent down day allowed us to move even further from overbought.
Now, I’ll remark that there have been some weak days during that stretch, but they weren’t the result of overbought readings and I couldn’t trade them.
Old Turkey may just have this right.
We’re now 19% above the 50dma and nosebleed RSI’s. That range is typically reserved for cycle tops, not cycle lows and brand new cycles. I guess it can be different, it’s not my first choice.
FWIW, I don’t think April 12 will mark the cycle low, even if gold is on its way to a new high here, as my indicators to confirm a cycle’s primary decline were not triggered. I agree with Gary that gold is likely to run to $1500 and then decline into a cycle low. Since we’re already 22 days into the cycle, that decline should be brief when it occurs.
BTW, I blame you WES, you dumped those $40’s and created a panic. Thanks again 🙂
1500$ for gold is not far off, two days like today and it’s there, then crazy profit taking dip.The SoS on GDX is crazy.
I think you’ve completely misunderstood me. In fact what I’m saying is the complete opposite.
I know what “X” means. I was just commenting that what your portfolio value is, as in the number X stands for is something thats yours, and I don’t wish to pry into that.
And in fact, about the size of your gains, Wes had commented yesterday that your gains are small. I was the one to correct his calcualation and the math said that they are not small, but substantial.
Its funny how things can be misinterpreted.
PS: It doesn’t MATTER if I’m holding FULL or MINI or MICRO contracts. I’m not here to try an one-up over other people somehow by talking like I’m some massive player. I’m not.
My comments are purely describing my leverage and buy/sell/stop points of which some people find useful (at their own risk, of course).
It is *never* productive on a message board to talk absolute positions or size. (Rarely is it productive in real life either.)
I PROMISE you that there is *always* somebody with more and *always* somebody with less. It doesn’t matter. All a person ends up doing is alienating and polarizing ALL sides cause suddenly people start feeling like they are either better or worse than others.
A while ago someone posted that they had made $15 million or something like that. That wasn’t necessary and it wasn’t a good move. I’m sure we all remember that post and It instantly created a bad vibe among many.
Just FYI, if I ever make $15 million, I’m going to post about it. And it will be the last post you ever see from me.
Appologies if I misinterpreted things. Also, a few of my comments just now were more in general and not so much just you.
Are we in kindergarten?
No problems….it does happen message boards.
Overall, I do appreciate your posts and strategy.
Alright so if gold will rise to 1500$ and decline then at what level we should see low ? because if at 1450 than waiting for decline was pure waste of time
When you guys say “SoS on the GDX” is there a particular indicator you are referring to?
Francus: I use http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflppg-moneyflow.html
Somehow, I knew you’d be bitter.
CMT, if I make 1 Million I will be happy and go away. 🙂
CMT – Thank you, am I reading that right as saying that 3:1 money is flowing out, meaning profit-taking?
I’m curious….you don’t have to get into details if you don’t want to, but what makes up your overbought indicator?
I also noticed that GDX is numero uno on the WSJ selling on strength list.
That said, Gary has said repeatedly that only the SPDRs matter on that list.
el dólar de Estados Unidos entra el tanque
sorry, make that 2:1 out
Not sure I really understand how money flow works. I think the ratio is more a reflection of volume on price moves.
It’s no secret. I just use BB”s curve fitted to indicate previous overbought conditions in the particular security.
If we get back above those same BB levels again, I count that as overbought.
The reason this doesn’t catch 50 dma signals is I use intervals between 12 and 25 days.
You wrote “Just FYI, if I ever make $15 million, I’m going to post about it. And it will be the last post you ever see from me.”
That was funny, made me laugh out loud.
TZ,Yeah that was Cory. His 15 million must be 20-25 by now.
I have noticed since last fall that when AXU moves to the top of the pack in terms of percentage gains, like today, it tends to bode well for the entire sector in the coming days.
The trading volume and float of AXU are just low enough that the really hot money stays away because of relative illiquidity, IMO. This probably makes it a better intermediate term predictor of future prices than something like GPL, IMO. The float is also just large enough that it isn’t as subject to pump and dump, like penny stocks.
Beanie’s gonna crack $20MM with his portfolio of green energy stocks, sometime in the early 2030s…
CMT – So the SoS is just from the strength of money flow out of GDX, however it’s calculated?
Francus, I think that’s the general idea, but again, I don’t really understand money flow.
Francus, I think it’s basically an indicator saying that people are selling a stock even though it is on a bullish path, with the price increasing even as a ton of money is coming out. Sounds like it’s the big and smart money boys moving their $ out ahead of a possible downturn in a particular stock. Someone please correct me gently if I’m wrong!
IMO, I’m not sure I understand why stating absolute nominal numbers would cause consternation. For one thing, the board is more-or-less anonymous, i.e. certainly no reason to personalize anything, but what’s perhaps more relevant is that sometimes those nominal numbers are pertinent.
For example, I for one find it much more exciting to celebrate someone who’s learning and manages to turn 10K into 40-50K or more than one who goes from 15-60 million. Because for me, the difference between the latter amounts? Big deal? What can you do at $60 mil that you thought you couldn’t do at $15? But to build up a foundational investment core: That’s something! And it’s a something we wouldn’t be able to “hurrah!” if the descriptions was merely a cool, detached “4x.”
Everyone’s at a different place, with different goals. I rather like to think of this community as being able to toast those met goals: It’s lovely! Hard to do if there’s an injunction against attaching nominal values to anything.
Na WES, perfectly fine with it. It’s the way it goes. In any event, it still wouldn’t be a lottery winner at 400% return, that’s reserved for the 10 baggers plus 😉
So what is that level today? The price on Silver that would have made it overbought according to your indicator? I just want to get an idea about how far it is.
er…and CMT (in case not a fella)!
Thanks Doc for the verification of this weeks action. 🙂
Still on about nominal values:
Plus, I think it does concern investment strategy. Where one is nominally, and what–if anything–they are trying to achieve with those funds, could likely influence the amount of risk they’re tempted to take.
I know for myself that I have a nominal amount in mind where I will back off leverage and where I will move Kitko down from the top of my bookmarks.
When people are sharing their trades/investments, having a relative idea in mind as to what moves her/him lends additional perspective…I think.
everything still fine if you’re holding positions precious metals
leaving the party, institutions like to do, they don’t stick around for the fireworks. :p
next week, may be the week to take some off the table. not just yet.
CDE is getting clobbered all day.
Never even had a chance.
Could be the canary
CDE isn’t a canary. It’s down on company-specific news related to possible Bolivian expropriation. PAAS is similarly affected today.
CDE may have some issues with expropriation of a Bolivian mine.
Hardly a canary. More like company specific issues, just like HL.
Are you back in or just waiting on the side lines?
Just read it
AGQ up very nicely!
Boliva to nationalize silver mines.
News affecting CDE and PAAS!
Now I feel a lot better about going “old turkey” while some of you were selling earlier this week and last Friday. As Gary says, surprises in a bull market typically come on the UP side.
Also, I have moved 90% of my portfolio to AGQ. Why risk company-specific issues like with CDE? If you think silver is going higher (as most of us do) why not just play the metal?
Some of you are holding SLW that is underwater … I had some SLW shares that were in the red by I sold them in the last couple of days and moved all the money into AGQ.
AGQ is up 6.13% as I type this, while SLW is up only 1.3%
In my opinion, you are better off taking your loss on SLW and getting into AGQ now.
A few days ago, 25% of my portfolio was in SLW … today 0%.
I am still 100% invested … I just sold my SLW and immediately bought AGQ … did not hold out for a given price on either trade.
I’m locked at loaded for the last leg of the C Wave and riding AGQ for all its worth.
Got really close to all time highs. 0.10 on Silver and 2.80 for Gold.
Backing off very slightly now. Lets see how they go from here.
I was real Dumb and trimmed half of my stuff…..would any one jump back in now or jut wait for the correction?
Hggerty,Why not buy some now, some later?
I sold earlier today at $268. I had a weak hand as I am a new sub. I got back in at $275 with tight stops and a small investment… I am still learning though, and it is worth a few bucks to me to learn how this stuff plays out. Limited risk, probably limited reward. Live and learn!
It hurts my eyes to see what is happening with CDE!Portfolio too…
Haggerty, I’m sure you’re in good company. I sold about 65% of what I was holding, and judging from the comments on the blog, probably lots of other people sold that much or more. It was the fear of giving back some of our gains, and, in retrospect, should have just followed more literally the plan that Gary laid out. Oh well, I’m back to about a 50% position (almost all AGQ), and will benefit whichever way things go.
I’ve got some CDE. Not alot, but some. Should I dump it?
Atlas Shrugged Part One is starting tomorrow. How timely.
In the interest of full disclosure, I DID panic and sell last month.
I sold about 40% of my portfolio on March 18th after the Japan tsunami beat down.
But that weekend I became a paid subscriber here and Gary convinced me that I made a dumb mistake so I bought back in on March 21st and I’ve been 100% invested ever since.
The only trades I have made have been to rebalance my portfolio, selling my miners and going more and more heavily into AGQ until today I am 90% in AGQ.
Just peeking in for a moment. Perhaps this has something to do with SIL underperforming so terribly:
I sold as well, 50 calls of SLV and when it went down, bought back 50 calls.So in essence, still at the same place but with a profit.I do want a pullback so I can top off and hold on for the “Big C”.
Looks like gold is going to double top here. Wave pattern would likely be complete there, so a pullback will be very likely.
But whether it’s just a pullback that retraces only part of today’s advance or whether it’s something more menacing–we’ll just have to wait and see. The wave pattern certainly suggests the possibility of a return to the low of April 12 and probably slightly lower than that.
Sorry, I see a few others posted that article earlier.
Jennifer,CDE has just broken thru the bottom Bollinger Band, and there is much negativity showing on the indicators.A Bollinger Band Crash is a buying opportunity, as stated frequently by Gary.Tempting to sell out of CDE, but will hold fast, although an overall correction could take it much lower. Prepare for that.
One would think that the unaffected miners would rocket along with silver, with money flowing to other names as the competition suffers. It benefits other companies by driving their revenue higher.
Nice to see PMs outperming% gold today. Hopefully we close strong.
Congrats to those who didn’t panic and sell earlier.
I have never wanted a commodity to dive as much as I want the PMs to right now.
All I hear in my head is “gobble gobble”.
Sorry, I went to lunch just after I posted.
My software doesn’t track silver, the commodity. The very beginning of oversold today (and it needs to get well above this for an action level) is 41.37 for SLV, 281.32 for AGQ.
Of course, these will be higher tomorrow.
It’s actually fairly rare that a security gets overbought. Oversold conditions are much more common.
The corrections come from other events in most cases.
Wes, I think you mean “overbought” right?
SBYep, potentially expropreated mines are high in the SIL holdings. Will be interesting to see if CDE really doesn’t have mines in the catagory to be retaken by the gov’t.
Holding off, til we get the correction.
Should be any day
REE stocks QRM.V and TSM.V are running higher on increasing volume. QRM has already broken to new highs, having applied for an US listing and TSM is on the verge of following suit. That sector, although small, is also in a roaring bull market, with MCP, REE, and AVL the bellwethers
I think we’re waiting for the dollar to bounce close off it’s three-year low, if I understand what I’m learning here.
Forgot to mention that SLW is the number one SIL holding @12%. Another reason for underperformance lately.