362 thoughts on “Portfolio change

  1. Dan

    Just reduced my account from 150% to
    100% also. Great profits past couple weeks just hope it doesn’t shoot higher!

  2. pimaCanyon

    Reposting here:

    Poly,

    Thanks for the shout out on Friday about how the daily cycle might be close to topping. I had small positions in AXU, NG, and GDXJ, and a larger position in SVM, all of which I sold on Friday, near the top! πŸ™‚

    (I let the trend/channel lines on the 5 min chart take me out on each one. I had OCO orders with a limit order near where I thought it MIGHT be possible to hit on Friday, with the other part of the OCO as a tight stop along the lower channel or TL. I kept moving that stop up during the day and eventually they all were taken out.)

    I still have a core of SLV and GLD, both shares and deep in the money calls. Sounds like my core is a little larger than yours–40 percent in cash right now.

    Not sure yet how I will deploy that cash, whether to keep it all in GLD/SLV or whether to buy back some of the mining shares.

    Do you intend to just stick with SLV options or will you also buy some of the miners?

  3. Poly

    Pima,

    The 35% I have remaining is nicely leveraged on July SLV’s $32’s, so I still have more than a 100% boat πŸ™‚

    As for re-deployment, I’m not certain. I know most of it will go to higher strike SLV’s, that is my core. I’m also thinking Gold needs a big rally here too, so I might do some GLD’s.

    No miners for me. But I might allocate 10-20% on a very aggressive play, something like a not too far OTM AGQ call and hopefully purchased near the bottom, try to pickup some panic sellers.

    What did you have in mind?

  4. pimaCanyon

    Poly,

    I’m thinking I’ll probably just stick with deep in the money GLD and SLV calls. MAYBE a small lotto play with at the money or slightly out of the money calls, but that will depend on the depth of the correction and the price of the options at that time.

  5. Greggy_M

    Gary,

    Can you give me an example of what you consider deep in the money? Are you looking at May or July exp.
    Lastly, I see July SLV call option with strike of $35 going for $6.10, It has over 33,000 in open interest(much more interest than most) would that be a good choice?
    Thanks;-)

  6. Shalom Bernanke

    As far as NUGT (2x XAU), it was a later addition for me and I lowered size accordingly, so won’t need to trim there. I’ll just ride through the pullback with that one and look to add near the cycle low.

    But I will definitely exit all NUGT (and any DGP if I buy some at the cycle low) near the top of the C-wave.

    As far as miners, and since Gary is handling the metals trade, I will look to trim just a bit (maybe 10%) into a late morning rally, also looking to put the funds back to work at the daily cycle low.

  7. pimaCanyon

    Poly,

    You know there’s a chance we could all get fooled by the upcoming daily cycle low. Here on the blog (and other blogs) there’s talk of it being a nasty correction that will shake a lot of folks out of their positions. But what if it’s not that? What if instead it’s just a sideways correction for a few days or even less, maybe something like the daily cycle low that was almost a non-event during the late summer/fall rally? We would all be waiting for the big move down and instead, the market just takes off to the upside.

  8. DG

    Aries: PZG had some test results. That often results in wild swings, even if the news is good because people sell on the good news they’ve been waiting for.

    Here’s a good link for single stock news; Just change the symbol in the url line:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=pzg

  9. DG

    I agree with PC. I am not sure that we need a stiff shakeout here. We need to get to wildly bullish and metals sentiment is neutral (amazing!) If we drop sharply we reset the clock and have to build sentiment even more quickly to get to over–bullish. Mild dip and new rally would get us to buying frenzy sentiment quicker, so perhaps no stiff drop. Maybe a one-day down $30 on gold and then sideways for a few days.

    TZ, you out there with a thought on this? Gary, does this make sense?

  10. ddn3f

    Pima and DG,

    I think the odds are in favor of a giant shakeout. I actually was looking for silver between 40 and 43 before a giant shakeout. Looks like we are in the range. But I am actually waiting for another big up day to get things wildly bullish and to mark the top. Also volatility should increase as we get to the top of the C-wave. So it’s too late in the IT cycle to have a sideways grind daily low. Just my thoughts.

  11. whitebear

    Gold, /GC looks really bullish to me on the 4h. First test of the 20, we should at least get a test of the 1478 and 41.97 on silver…JMHO.

    I might reduce size there.

    2cents…

  12. Dan

    Pima,

    I think if we were to get a sideways consolidation here for several days, it would be safe to buy back in. We either correct here soon or we consolidate and move higher again./jmo

  13. Gary

    Other than the one mild daily cycle last Sept every other daily cycle for the last year has been enough to shake traders out of positions. The odds are not in favor of a mild correction.

    I think we probably have to go down far enough to get all these option buyers to puke up their positions.

    $3-$6 in silver is my best guess.

  14. Francus

    Can anyone translate $38 into an approx. AGQ price? Does that make sense? Broker doesn’t have contingent purchase based on silver index.

    Thank you

  15. Aaron

    Gary, I thought you were only expecting one more cycle here…wouldnt a shake out simply kill all possibility of the 1600/50 targets?

  16. Bruce

    Gary, if you think there is gonna be a $3-6 shakeout in silver, why would you carry such a beefy (50%+) AGQ position?

  17. Gary

    Aaron,
    Daily cycle corrections don’t stop an advance, they enable it.

    We need to dampen sentiment a bit. Once we get a pullback the trend followers will pile in and create another strong floor and set up the final rocket launch.

    Go look at some of those final C-wave advances. 20-30% in the final leg isn’t uncommon. What would 30% be from today’s level?

    I’ll give you a hint it’s a lot higher than $1650

  18. Shalom Bernanke

    “Gary, if you think there is gonna be a $3-6 shakeout in silver, why would you carry such a beefy (50%+) AGQ position?”- Bruce

    We should keep in mind that Gary is also one of the more aggressive traders here.

  19. Yash

    just to talk numbers .. his count is expecting move like 185-162 now and higher high like 216 before move like 216-174 .. agq numbers…
    of course things do not repeate exactly same.

  20. Gary

    Yash,
    For the most part cycles are worthless for spotting tops. Trying to pick an exact price top with cycles is pure fantasy. One may get lucky but it won’t have anything to do with cycles.

  21. Gary

    Greg,
    sentimentrader.com for the big picture. But right here on the blog for daily cycle estimates. The number of hits on the blog has soared to over 12,000 daily. Add to that all the talk about buying call options and it’s pretty obvious a shakeout is coming soon.

    The fact that gold is moving into the middle of the timing band for a cycle low is also a clue.

  22. Ryan

    Gary,

    I’m not leveraged and I’m in 100% right now. If I don’t want to buy options at the next daily cycle, should I just hold my AGQ or reduce some risk and put it in SLV and then buy back into AGQ at the next daily cycle?

  23. aries

    Regarding the daily pressures that Gary feel from us, I recall the following from Bloomberg, January 7, 2010:

    “The Adens’ biggest goof was in 1983. Gold was at $680 and looking good for the long run. But then-Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker squashed inflation by raising interest rates. Gold sank to half its price and stayed down for 20 years. “We were new at this game,” Mary Anne says. “We felt pressure from subscribers who wanted us to stay bullish. We learned a hard lesson: Never argue with reality.”

  24. Jack

    What happens if I owned CGC? It was purchased by Gammon Gold (GRS) and delisted on Friday. Do I get GRS shares? Thanks.

  25. Wes

    Holding April calls in SLV during expiration week, particularly when a daily cycle high is expected anytime, or may already be in, leaves me like the cat on a hot tin roof.

    So far, though, I haven’t seen anything that looks like an overbought situation in silver, although I acknowledge having no prior experience in things that trade 24/7. Perhaps my traditional measures of overbought/oversold won’t work nor will my key reversal metrics.

    On Friday, most traders thought that the US government would be closed, and that probably accounted for some strength in metals and weakness in the dollar. Given that, today’s action so far is encouraging for more upside in silver IMHO.

    Until proven wrong, I’ll go with my traditional indicators for selling these options.

  26. Poly

    @Pima,

    “You know there’s a chance we could all get fooled by the upcoming daily cycle low. Here on the blog (and other blogs) there’s talk of it being a nasty correction that will shake a lot of folks out of their positions.”

    Anything is possible and with regards to gold what you say above is VERY plausible, considering the moves to date. But look at that weekly Silver chart, the gains have been outrageous and it’s near vertical, I just don’t see how you get another fresh new parabolic daily cycle when you’re already at those levels.

  27. DG

    I also have lightened up, selling a few miners and a touch of AGQ. If SLV drops $6, then AGQ winds up at 190…too much for me. I will be back as buying into drops/panics is easy for me.

  28. Ryan

    Ok I trimmed a little bit of AGQ. Any thoughts about the miners? I am thinking of trimming some SLW as well but it’s down today and I would rather not sell on a down day.

  29. Romeo Bravo

    Jack, I own (ed) CGC too. If you read any of the proxy voting material they sent you, CGC will get .5209 of a share of GRS for each share of CGC you had. PLUS, BONUS! $ 1.09 in cash per share of CGC you had.

  30. jeff

    DG

    i sold last night and of course it tested 42 right after, but wherever it goes ill be happy if i can get in at the swing at the cycle

  31. CMT

    DG, I read your book over vacation. Excellent advice throughout! I already recommended it to 2 friends.

    I know I mentioned it before, but I think you might enjoy a refresher on Epictetus; you and he seem to be approaching similar problems in similar ways – you might find something there you like.

  32. ...at ease

    I just have a question anyone can probably answer. If AGQ follows silver and silver follows gold, why has AGQ been increasing while Gold sits or moves very little lately?

  33. DG

    Jeff: You don’t want to get too light but you had said you were super loaded. If silver opens at $50 tomorrow you will (should!) be very happy. I cut some but am still there in size.

    CMT: Thanks for the kind words. I am glad the book was helpful. For the right reader (open and interested in changing himself for the better) it has been a life changer.

    Just FYI to whomever: My whole net worth is tradable. I won no real estate and nothing else to speak of so when I am 75% long, that’s 75% of the whole enchilada (burrito?) I like cash and no fixed assets. moved to Italy for a year and a half because I felt like it. Flew back once in a while to do speaking, and then back to Italy. No kids, no debt, no house, wife of 35 years is my best friend. To each his own, I guess.

  34. DG

    CMT: re Epictetus: Having studied him several times as a major in Philosophy, I won’t read him again as it may re-initiate my recurring nightmare about being back in college again! πŸ˜‰

  35. DG

    I lightened up on AGQ for a number of reasons:

    Got a buy on the dollar/sell on euro Friday
    My stuff shows silver massively overbought
    Lost most of last night’s rally in the futures by 9:30
    Gary’s daily cycle bottom due
    Miners acting worse than metals all day

  36. ...at ease

    DG, Glad to see you back. You were missed. I finished up your book. Good read and excellent advice. I left it for my hubby to read and suggested to my son to read also. I usually hear the same thing from everyone, they have no time. πŸ˜‰
    We’ll see.

  37. DG

    At Ease: It”s funny what we do and don’t “have time for,” isn’t it? Oh well…such is the nature of things.

  38. MrMiyagi

    I’m looking forward to a couple of down days to top off with the cash from Friday’s sells that I made.
    Did I just say that I was looking forward to a drop? Looks like I did… Weird!

  39. Dan

    Wow looks like we might get quite the intraday reversal….congrats to everyone who shed some shares alongside Gary this morning.

  40. MrMiyagi

    To fellow Canucks; I’m with RBC, it doesn’t allow 5 cent increases in options over 1$, and no penny increases below 1$.
    Sometimes that 5 cent gap is where I want to be, any other platforms that allow that?

  41. Rob L.

    MrMiyagi,

    I am Canadian too. This might be an ignorant question, but when trading options in Canada are we trading Canadian options in Canadian dollars?

  42. pimaCanyon

    at ease,

    I too have wondered about all the SMT followers and the effect we have the market. But here’s something to consider. If the SMT subs are following Gary’s portfolio, then they have a lot of money in AGQ, but NONE in silver futures. (Some do trade the futures, but they seem to be in the minority.)

    It’s the silver futures price that moves AGQ and even SLV. So if Gary’s subs are selling only AGQ, that would not impact the futures (or spot) price at all, right?

  43. Gary

    Trust me the number of people following the SMT is insignificant. we aren’t having any effect on the precious metal markets.

  44. MrMiyagi

    Rob L.
    Depends; if you buy a US security, then it’s the US options, Canadian options if it’s the Canadian security.
    I’ve never bought a Canadian option, the volume is as slow as motor oil in the winter.

  45. Aaron

    I disagree Gary. It only take a group of hefty hitters in the futures market to turn a thinly traded market, like silver.

  46. DG

    I just bought EUO at 17.17 for a trade (short euro ETF). Dollar bounce and gold sell-off ought to occur simultaneously.

  47. ...at ease

    Ahhh, but we are only a small number on this blog who converse daily. How many out there (like those who steal your work) and pass it off as their own or others who share with who knows who up the food chain driven by your blog site? Hmmmm, just makes you wonder. Like a pebble tossed in the water, how far out do the ripples go?

  48. pimaCanyon

    Aaron,

    But what we are trading is not thinly traded.

    Average volume on SLV is 28 million shares daily.

    Average volume on AGQ is 1.2 million.

    Average volume on SLW is 14 million.

    Those are the main instruments that are being traded here and none of those is a thinly traded market.

    OTOH silver futures average volume is somewhere around 60,000 contracts. That is a much thinner market than the above etf’s and SLW, it’s true. But how many of Gary’s subs are trading in the silver futures markets?

  49. DG

    Sophia: I am close to a buy on OIH (one more sharp down day or two ought to do it). I will post when I cover and you might lighten up or sell out DUG then. It can always go lower but once I get the buy it shows we are super stretched to the downside.

  50. pimaCanyon

    good point, at ease.

    We really don’t know the total effect this blog has. Even if the number of SMT subs is “small” as Gary says, how many of those have very LARGE accounts? A few dozen subs with multi-million dollar account sizes could push thing around a bit, eh?

  51. Rob L.

    MrMiyagi,

    Thanks.

    SO I guess you trade in a U.S margin account at RBC?

    Is it frustrating going back and forth between currencies and exchanges? And are there any headaches with regards to taxes? And do you have to deal with the IRS or just Revenue Canada?

  52. DG

    silverhound: There are all types here and some people are seriously leveraged. Virtually no day-traders I am aware of and Gary does very little portfolio changing—just a trim here and there sometimes.

  53. The Angry Hippie

    Prior to today, I though the plan was to sit tight.

    What changed? I read the report but don’t remember a specific mention of the reasoning. Do I need to read it again?

  54. Aaron

    Pima, the price of AGQ and SLV and the like are all supposed to mimic the moves of futures. So the volume isnt as relevant as one may think.
    We just need 10 (good sized) members selling silver at market (futures) and the thing gets killed.
    Sad but true.

  55. Jayhawk

    I know there is one sub with 14M worth of AGQ.

    Not sure on those bigger ticket items how much sway we have, but on something like AG that gets talked about a lot…You kind of wonder how much we might move a small market like that one.

    I lightened up my AGQ position too…Really don’t like doing it and hope this is just a quick test of the 10DMA

  56. Gary

    Angry,
    I just want to convert a little AGQ to SLV options is the only reason I made any change.

    If one isn’t going to do something similar they could just sit tight.

    BTW I expect todays little pullback is a fakeout and not the cycle top.

  57. MrMiyagi

    Rob;
    I have a margin account that has US and Canadian capabilities.
    You can transfer money into the US side and leave it there until you withdraw in either US$ or transfer to C$.
    Tax wise, you have to fill out a form and give it to the brokerage so that you don’t get the IRS on your back. You just pay Canadian tax, calculation is based on the exchange rate of the selling date.

  58. Jayhawk

    The thing I hate about SVM is it sells off like it went up like AG or EXK. Meaning, the degree of it’s sell offs doesn’t jibe with the degree of it’s rise.

  59. Neil

    Correct me if I’m wrong but doesn’t the 60,000 silver futures contracts represent 300,000,000 oz of silver and each slv share is 1 oz of silver?
    Seems the volume in the futures market is pretty significant in that light.

  60. sophia

    Thanks DG! I would appreciate and promise a nice enchiladas when you go back to Italy! ( it is closer from Chamonix or London!!)

  61. MrMiyagi

    Rob,
    You’re welcome.
    The form is the W-8BEN (for Bernanke?).
    75% of my transactions are US based as the Canadian market is sometimes too thin.

  62. Jennifer

    Jeez, sometimes its like playing Telephone on this forum. Gary makes a position adjustment in the morning and by the afternoon people are completely closed out of positions. Cool heads people. πŸ™‚

  63. Gary

    I doubt all of the SMT followers even come close to one or two big hedge funds and there are literally 8000-10000 hedge funds. Not to mention all the big banks.

    Folks the SMT is an after thought in this market.

  64. Ryan

    MrMiyagi,

    I’m also a Canadian and I didn’t even know we had to fill out another form for the IRS. What is the W-8BEN for? For my US stocks, I just reported it on my income tax and used the exchange at buy and sell date.

  65. MrMiyagi

    Ryan;
    I’m surprised that your brokerage hasn’t sent you the forms, or maybe you filled it out amongst the other ones.
    In any case, the forms is needed so that you get tax-exempt from the US by paying taxes in Canada.
    Call your brokerage and see if they need it, RBC sent these forms to me automatically a couple of years back. Before that it didn’t bother, I don’t know when this came into effect.

  66. Ryan

    traderlady and at ease,

    I with both of you. I’m going to only trim my SLW that I added 2 weeks ago. I’m not going to do anything today. If Gary’s right then hopefully it’s a fakeout and we can lighten up when we get a pop.

  67. ...at ease

    Ryan,
    I haven’t been real thrilled with SIL or SLW, but it may be because we came in later than the rest of SMTP subs. So will trim back my SLW that I recently added also once we get a pop up.

  68. blammo

    MrMiyagi and Rob L., I too only trade US options as Canadian volume is just not there. I keep those funds in USD and do not transfer between the accounts.

    RBC probably has the worst trading platform as far as the big banks go. BMO is my favourite. TD is not bad (keep hoping they will get the TOS platform as per TD Ameritrade). I will likely move my RBC account to Questrade during the D wave.

  69. Ryan

    MrMiyagi,

    I trade mostly via TD and you might be right, perhaps I already filled out a form when I opened up my account. Thanks I’ll call them and ask.

  70. ddn3f

    At Ease,

    I am not too thrilled with SLW either. I will get rid of my SLW and convert them to DIM SLV calls. I’m going with TZ’s all metal approach.

  71. Greggy_M

    Gary,

    Just curious why you think today’s pullback is a fakeout and not the cycle top? What makes you think that? Keep up the good work:-)

  72. Dan

    Gary,

    So you do not believe Friday/today was the daily cycle top? If not, how much higher do you expect this to go before we correct?

  73. Nike Boy2008

    Dan,

    Gary EXPECTS a gap up over 1500 before this cycle tops…

    And then again, we all know that this is no exact science

    we need to be prepared under any case as we are in the timing for a cycle low

  74. sophia

    anyway Gary, I want to have the same thing as you for breakfast!! I don’t know how you do it each time, but it is pretty amazing! Come on, tell us, are you working in fact at an enormous hdge fund and they hired you as a guru?
    Amazing!! Thanks for sharing your knowledge!

  75. Nike Boy2008

    also…one other thing

    the last cycle ran for 31 days, which is more than the average for a cycle

    so we could expect a shorter cycle this time around

    Gary, please correct me if I’m wrong

  76. Vio

    Nike

    “Gary EXPECTS a gap up over 1500 before this cycle tops… “

    “This cycle” means Daily cycle or C wave cycle?

  77. Silverhound

    Jayhawk

    I’d like to post a chart and I notice you are posting yours as a clickable link rather than a copy and paste text. Can I ask how you are doing this?

    Thanks

  78. DG

    Sold all my SLW this morning as it is just not keeping up with AGQ. It’s now below it’s early March peak and AGQ is way above it’s peak from then. I will probably not be back to it and do nothing but AGQ for the last leg.

  79. Jayhawk

    TZ-

    That’s because most of us sold last week. πŸ™‚ I don’t like holding options late into the daily cycle.

    SLW getting spanked extra hard.

  80. mdsn

    sold all my calls this morning. Even my June calls.
    But I did buy some GC this morning….thats a bit uncomfortable right now πŸ™‚

  81. TZ(4404)

    No change in position for weeks (since approx japan crash week).

    5.5-6x leverage still in futures (varies as we go up and down as a normal mathematical result)

    Intend to increase silver position by 25-33% upon bottom of this pullback.

    Stops near japan crash lows.

  82. DG

    Sophia: I covered my OIH. I have NOT gotten the buy, but if I do I may go long it. I am so close to the buy that I thought I may as well cover as my possible additional gain on the short is minimal. Was a nice trade as i assume your DUG has been. I will post if i get the buy signal on it.

  83. DG

    TZ: BTW that was a great call last week (“flat Thursday and spike up Friday”). Let me know the next time you know exactly what’s going to happen πŸ˜‰

  84. pimaCanyon

    I also dumped my May calls last week. At this point I have June 130 calls on GLD and July 25 calls on SLV.

    Kinda wishing I’d sold the June GLD’s, but they are moving almost one to one with the shares because they are so deep in the money, so I plan to just ride them thru the correction. Lost of time left till June expiration.

    Right now GLD is down 1.14, the june calls are down 1.12.

    SLV is down .64, the July calls are down .57

  85. Vonda

    For once the tinkering seems to be paying off.

    Sold slw June 40 calls and nearly all my AGQ this morning at $267 then bought back 1/2 at $260.

    Am currently 65% percent invested, down from 140%, and instead of the 7% drawdown I would have experienced, am currently down .34%. (written with silver at $40.23)

    If we pop up from here, I’ll only gain 3.5% per silver pt, versus 8.5%, but I don’t care as I decided for me it was more important to protect gains to date. If the correction is shallow, I’ll happily chase.

  86. Poly

    There is no buying to be don, IMO. The cycle has obviously topped, just need to wait out the process from top down to the cycle low.

  87. The Angry Hippie

    Can we expect nice snap backs on EXK, AG, NUGT or do these juniors tend to underperform once such big gains are give back? (They are juniors, right?)

    Tempting to put some money in them after the low.

  88. DG

    Patience guys. If you sold some this morning wait at least a little while for the cycle to play out. A four hour daily cycle is a tad on the short side, no? Even the short ones muck around at the bottom for a day or two. It’s hard to change sentiment so quickly regardless of price as time is also a factor in psychology.

  89. fubsy_cooter

    Contrary to Gary’s view, I believe this is the cycle top…of course he wrote that a couple hours ago, and the selling has picked up. But who knows, the gold bull is a vicious beast and will buck and snort in either direction. Perhaps tomorrow we get a big up day, sucker in more buyers and then top.

    If I’m right, and cycle top is in, I didn’t get my spike to sell into, so I will be holding my positions into the cycle low.

    If I’m wrong, and we get a spike yet, I will be selling 1/4 of positions as stated yesterday, and will buy back if we correct prior to a parabolic move.

    Being conservative, I tend to leg out of positions when things get hot.

    F

  90. GottaHaveIt

    I don’t have any options, but I am currently 100% invested in AGQ, SLW and a small basked of silver miners. Should I take some off the table now, or do you still think this is a “fake top?”

  91. Ryan

    Well so much for selling the SLW that I added a couple of weeks ago. It’s pretty much BE for me on those buys so I guess I might as well hold now and see how the daily cycle plays out.

  92. CMT

    Haggerty, not selling anything else. was/am planning to buy more AGQ on every cross of xx5. It’s getting pretty close to 245 though and I’m not really ready to pull the trigger.

  93. sophia

    CNBC saying that selloff triggered by Goldman Sachs selling its Commodities fund ( I guess you all know that, but I was giving the bath to my kids and just switched on the TV…)

  94. wingman

    I sold the majority of my options (giving me some cash for the next leg up), but hedged my SLW and SLV calls by selling calls against my positions early this morning. This offset some of the losses and I still have my positions in case of a fakeout.

    As for my other positions, I am mostly holding old turkey until the D wave comes.

  95. Haggerty

    I followed gary this morning, took about 15% off the table. Not ready to pull trigger on more just yet. If we get a decent bounce I might trim more tomorrow. I fear there will be a big selloff at the close and if we do I will just hold

  96. catbird

    Gary,

    Great call this morning. It has already saved me a pretty penny, and I have plenty of dry powder to deploy when you call the daily cycle bottom.

    Lurkers: give this man your business.

  97. DG

    Sophia: “Your broker is gone?!!” Where do you trade? If you are using a full service broker you are getting HOSED. You really ought to be trading online. Please tell me what you are doing so I can talk you out of it! Also, even with a regular broker anyone else in the office can place a trade for you. I hope you are not holding to make a little extra and then if oil rockets up tomorrow you can think “It was my broker’s fault.” That’s a variation on “If it goes up I”m a genius; If it goes down my broker is an idiot.”

  98. DG

    Anyone who is serious about making money ought to be a subscriber. Period. The blog alone is good but doesn’t really do it. If you can’t save the membership fee you are investing less than $4.23, and in that case your reluctance is understood.

  99. sophia

    Oh no DG, I trade out of Europe and my broker/ private banker leaves at 6PM, so believe me, I wish he was still there NOW!!
    I didn’t want to leave an order tonight out of the blue because as you know this market is volatile so I have to be there to decide…
    Let’s hope this OIl stuff is not going to squeeze back tomorrow morning!!

  100. Romeo Bravo

    WIngman, nice move! I did the same. It’s nice when Opex for April is here this week as it offers some convenience to sell April options agains back month dated core holdings and thus mitigate some of the losses today.

    Of course it has to be done prudently so you don’t wind up having a huge liability if we get a pop later this week!

  101. Poly

    IMO, a top is well and truly in. No surprises of courses, just time to take full advantage of it.

    “My interpretation” of the cycles is Gold is now on Day 19 of an expected 20 to 28 day range. Even during bullish cycles, the process from top to the cycle low (cycle end) takes around 5 days to complete. If today was the top and you allowed 5 days, that would make this a 24 day cycle, smack in the middle of the expected range.

    Considering the last cycle was stretched and Gary often says short cycles are follow stretched cycles, we should accept the move to a cycle low has begun, it carries a very high probability.

    This cycle was a big one! Silver was up some 22% in 19 days and is currently 20% above just it’s 50dma and some 60% above its 200dma.

    Look at the volume on SLV today. Go look! SLV volume is 74 million and counting. Nothing comes close to this in 2011! The last time numbers this high were posted were Nov 9th and Dec 7th, both were peaks/tops.

    Judging by past experiences, like for example the last cycle Jan 25th-Mar15th, that cycle dropped 8.4%. Realistically, a drop to $38 might not be the bottom, but a good point to add with minimal downside.

    So I’m sitting tight with a lot of cash and will let the blood spill a little. Hopefully the low will come by Friday, I’m out on a family vacation next week and would love to go shopping before the trip, doubt my wife will appreciate cycle low trading πŸ™‚

    Anyway, just some random thoughts, sorry if they are repetitive.

  102. Poly

    “CNBC saying that selloff triggered by Goldman Sachs selling its Commodities fund”

    There is “always” a reason/excuse for buying/selling to explain a cycle turning point.

  103. DG

    Sophia: Whew! That’s better. Still you should have online access to your account so long as the NYSE is open.

    Poly: Agrees with my thinking as well. I have a lot of cash now. Bummer about the trip’s timing. Hopefully we end this dip Friday.

  104. coolkevs

    In DeMark land, we didn’t exceed the DXY low at 74.84 that I saw on Friday, using MarketWatch DXY. One more chance tomorrow to perfect the DAILY buy setup of 1-4 days, starting Wednesday. Setup will still record, but perfection gives full exhaustion. 74.90 DXY was the DAILY exhaustion for a DeMark Wave 5, so short term exhaustion in Dollar selling here.
    On Minyanville, where I frequent and began to read Gary (aka Toby), they’ve quickly switched to bearish silver. Did you all see that bearish put transaction in SLV – 95000 contracts at July 25 for .10 each – $1 million trade already up $400 K – but you live by the leverage sword, die by the leverage sword, eh? I’m not going to even entertain a trade like that until DXY 72.5.

  105. MrMiyagi

    Was tempted to add today but waited it out.
    As I said earlier, based on a day like today where it’s not the C-wave top, I’d hate to be at the top when the D-wave kicks in.
    A dollar down on silver today, can you imagine the panic selling that would avalanche with silver around 50-53$ and then a 5-7% decline?
    Was tempted to add but held off. Will wait near the cycle lows.

  106. ALEX

    TRADERLADY

    you re funny πŸ™‚ I read 3 posts from you and all of them made me laugh or smile ( especially waving goodbye to your dollars at your 12:16 p.m. post πŸ™‚

    I like the picture, reminds me of my vacation, but I imagine thats Sarasota?? I shall look for that tree in July !

    F.W.I.W. anyone…

    Sold 1/2 my SHZ ( and no thats not slang, its a stock ticker)

  107. W

    Poly:
    Thanks for your analysis. I followed Gary’s lead this morn, although bumped just a bit more than his % of agq…thought about closing all the slv/slw calls, but just couldn’t do more than a few. I closed the zsl puts and went into zsl calls (looks like I could have waited just a bit to do that).
    Follow through tomorrow?

  108. Wes

    TZ,

    It seems to me that you are the one strangely silent about your “no options” crusade.

    Yesterday you asked the percent exposure everyone had in options before you made your big point.

    We answered.

    You haven’t.

    Change your mind about options ?

  109. Gary

    Like I said if used properly options are great tools to control risk and increase ones return on invested capital.

    TZ is playing leverage. When used to leverage up options are a great tool to turn ones account into dust.

    In TZ’z leverage world options are evil. In the hands of someone that knows how to use them properly options are amazing investment vehicles.

  110. traderlady

    Alex, I TRY to keep things light,makes life more pleasant. Tree was my walk on Casey Key. A walk I think I mentioned to you back along for you trip. I shall show you the benefit for that walk. See pic.

    Do these Jr’s usually correct really
    violent?

  111. Wes

    Poly,

    You may be right about the top being in, but it seems strange that we never got to an overbought signal in silver.

    Now, last night’s top in silver futures may have produced such a reading had it occurred during NY trading. I’ll try to figure that out so I can use it next time if it happens to work.

    I shorted enough SLV common to just exercise the April options I have to cover, but if we rally, I still have the option of covering the short.

  112. Poly

    WES,

    What indicators are you looking at for overbought?

    I’m not a big technical guy so I’m just looking at plain vanilla stuff, like the % above 50dma, the rise out of long established channels, RSI (at 84, yes can be meaningless), big volume on big down day and very favorable cycle count. Not sure about sentiment numbers, looks like Sentiment trader .com has SIlver in the very bearish area, but that’s been the case since late last year πŸ™‚

  113. Wes

    The peak of silver’s move last night came to about $41.80-$41.90, which should have produced approximately a $40.85 print for SLV.

    This is still not close to an overbought reading. Maybe we top without getting overbought.

    Gary always said the PM complex was full of curve balls.

  114. catbird

    For those who like Peter Schiff:

    Today on his radio show he interviewed Marc Faber. You can download the entire show for free today at SchiffRadio.com.

  115. Jayhawk

    Poly-

    Yes, 75M volume on SLV—Huge selling day.

    Amazing to see that Nov 9th day of 148M on SLV. Looks like the bottom was in about 5 days after that sell off. We are still way above even the 10 MA on SLV. Buckle up.

  116. Wes

    Poly,

    I have charts that I “fit” to each security in order to determine overbought/oversold conditions.

    Normally, reversals occur when the stock opens high. Of course volume measures only give “historical” rather than real time signals as the volume is always minimal near the open.

    So, on the basis of opening high and closing low, today fits the bill as well.

    I really don’t care too much now, as the only uncovered April position I have left is the 100 SLV 40 calls, which baring a real rally, are chump change either way.

  117. Steven

    Gary (or anyone else),

    If I just sell my AGQ when we think the D wave is coming I will get hit with a 35% tax. I would really like to get long-term capital gain treatment (15%) on my AGQ shares. Additionally I may be moving anyway to a state that has no income tax which would save me another 8.5% so in my case the savings are huge – 28.5% of my gain. I could, of course, short twice the dollar amount in SLV. Perhaps I would need to short more than twice the amount because we think AGQ will outperform on the downside (D wave). What do people think about this strategy. I would need to hold onto the shares until 2013 but I have no problem with that.

    Thoughts?

    Thanks!

  118. ALEX

    TRADERLADY

    I love the looks of that place! It is calling me for lunch or beer or whatever they serve there!! VERY NICE!

    As for the juniors, some of them (though we expected a pullback ) are disappointing to see that volume off the top.

    In my experience, High volume off the top means a larger correction ( not to 10 or 20 sma , like under normal conditions with some sideways movement…its more painful). And actually, Gary has been saying he thinks it’ll hurt.

    I have NO leverage at all,thankfully.

  119. ALEX

    Actually…shut my mouth

    I saw some charts (like the SLV Nov day jayhawk just mentioned) did drop, bounce, go sideways, then drop to the 20 sma. YAY!!

    I am gone Tuesday and Wednesday all day…will be reading at night

    Best wishes all!

  120. pimaCanyon

    Poly,

    Great post. Yes, the volume on SLV sure looks significant.

    I wish I had been watching the SoS numbers earlier today, would have liked to have seen whether SLV was on the list. After it went negative for the day, it’s not gonna show there.

    Did anyone notice whether SLV was on the SoS list earlier today while it was still green? If so, what kind of numbers?

  121. traderRob

    Gold pit volume not too impressive today… Gary says follow gold for the daily top. Not sure we got it, although today definitely looked scary (even though I think SLW has a healthy bounce tomorrow).

  122. Steven

    There are also rumors flyng around that Comex will raise silver margin requirements AGAIN! If they do it has to be some kind of record.

  123. pimaCanyon

    Wes,

    I don’t understand your shorting the common and then exercising your calls to close. Why go to that bother?

    Are the SLV calls selling at a price that is BELOW the share value?

    If so, then why not just exercise and then sell the shares, rather than shorting and then exercising? Seems like you end up with the same result, no?

  124. SkepticSquirrel

    Steven longterm hold on 2x/3x no good. Think of them as radioactive. Eventually they will only be a shadow of their former glory.
    Please research ultra fund decay, plenty of links under Google.

  125. Eamonn

    I’m looking for some advice about options buying when the daily cycle low is in…
    What should I buy and at what price? I don’t know options

  126. Steven

    Thanks for the replies and I understand AGQ is only a short-term vehicle but if, for example, I short more than two times SLV then could close that gap. Let’s say I short 2.2X SLV (in dollar amounts) against my AGQ. Wouldn’t this give me a prtty good and almost complete hedge but not a sale for tax purposes. Does this make sense? at 28.5% of my gain this is really worth figuring out.

  127. pimaCanyon

    Steven,

    Seems like shorting SLV would work. Don’t know whether you would need to do a little more than twice to make up for any decay on AGQ. Maybe you could look at other significant declines in the past couple of years and see how close AGQ tracks SLV during those declines.

    You could also do it with puts on SLV or even on AGQ (although Gary and others have pointed out the spreads on AGQ options are very wide).

  128. pimaCanyon

    Steven,

    The other point is that when you take off the SLV short, you will have a GAIN and will be taxed on that, right? So if the D wave takes you back to your purchase price of AGQ, you’re back to square one with respect to taxes, no?

  129. traderRob

    Dollar also looking sick; couldn’t best intraday high. I’m still looking for 74.48 or thereabouts before we get a serious reversal in gold. Not gonna, lie the put volumes in our favorite issues (SLW and SLV) were outrageous today on the front month contracts. Could it be that today was a fakeout shakeout to hose front month call buyers just so we can go the other way and shank front month put buyers tomorrow? Lots of people puking up long positions and selling covered calls today. Wouldn’t it be funny (not haha) if they hand their shares over to the market makers tomorrow on the back of a covered call play? Opex takes no prisoners w/ respect to retail front-month traders.

  130. Steven

    Thanks Pima. The just realized that there is a bit of a problem with this strategy in that AGQ may drop considerably in value but let’s say my SLV short goes up by the same amount. Then I would have to wait until the 1 year period on my SLV shares to sell everything to get long term capital gain treatment.

    If we can collectively figure out the right way to do this then everyone could save at least 20% of their gans.

  131. Poly

    Gold is without doubt the Big Daddy and historically the driver, but you can’t argue against the fact Silver has been leading Gold this past 2 cycles. All the moves, Silver has been making them first.

    Also to expect anything else, i.e. a continuation of this cycle run over more days, is to also buy into the notion that this cycle will likely stretch again. There is a chance we rally back to test the highs, another day or two would be acceptable within the range. But fresh new and strong high’s? Not sure I like those odds.

    Eamonn,

    I believe Gary will have some good advice on options when the cycle low is near, definitely follow that.

  132. fubsy_cooter

    The benefits of this drop…

    It gives us our next stop level. So, its likely that we will be raising our stops after this cycle bottom has completed.

  133. traderlady

    Alex, This a nice Tiki Bar made by natives many years ago. It is on Blackburn Pt. Rd. next to the swing bridge where all the boats go through on the intercoastal . It has live music on some evenings. Nice atmosphere for drinks. Food next door is soso.

    Tomorrow. shall be interesting, I may have to switch out of some juniors while I am in the black. Shall watch volume. Thank you for the comments. I do not leverage except AGQ(2X). Good you sold AG. πŸ™‚ Not me πŸ™

  134. traderRob

    Poly,

    Gary’s looking for a gap up in Gold to prompt his rebalancing. I think that would be consistent with weak new highs and Opex shenanigans. I am, however, a young dumb 20-something, so take it for what it’s worth. That said, most of the technicians I follow were expecting today’s shanking (and I should have too, given the intraday reversal my account saw on Friday), but the SLW weakness looks like bid pulling, stop running action to me. We shall see πŸ™‚

  135. Wes

    I’ve read that some here are planning to buy call options on AGQ when we find the bottom.

    I would caution you that when these go DIM, the only way to get out whole is to short AGQ and exercise the calls to cover the short.

    For example, when I closed my AGQ 200 April calls today, I shorted the common at $261.69. At that time the bid on the AGQ calls was $58 and change.

    Without selling short, I would have had to pay the market maker over $300 per contract just to handle the trade.

    This really should not be a problem next time as the margin necessary for the trade can be had by liquidating other assets first.

    Today, it was a little tricky because I didn’t want to liquidate the other assets, so I had to execute the trade piecemeal to get under the margin requirements.

  136. Gary

    Steven,
    you cant’ hold AGQ through a D-wave. The decay on these things when they are going in the wrong direction is horrendous.

    None of these positions were ever going to be long term holds. Just sell pay your taxes and then get in as close to the bottom as you can.

    You will still come out much better than holding through a D-wave.

  137. Wes

    There is a major problem with some brokers If you want to execute the plan I just outlined. Some, like at my Fidelity account, won’t let you short AGQ.

    This wasn’t a problem for me as I had some AGQ that I wanted to keep anyway, so I sold that and kept the exercised shares, when they finally were exercised.

    Since you have to get an actual broker to exercise the calls, this wasn’t done for over 30 minutes at Fidelity (how long I was on hold before I got a broker that could handle the trade).

    The same trade at E*Trade took less than 2 minutes.

    I’ve been planning to move from Fidelity for some time for other reasons, but this reinforced them.

  138. Gary

    No one should be buying calls on AGQ. That’s already leveraged 2:1.

    If you know what you are doing and what to add some calls at the cycle low buy them on SLV. The spreads are tight and there’s plenty of liquidity.

  139. Wes

    Gary,

    Re the AGQ calls, as you know you can only lose what you pay for the calls. The fact that it’s already levered shouldn’t be a consideration, IMHO.

  140. Gary

    If you want to add some leverage with calls do it with SLV calls instead of AGQ. There is enough liquidity that you will be able to get in, and more importantly out, when you want to.

    If one needs to get out of AGQ calls in a hurry the spread will kill you and it will significantly widen during any kind of panic condition, as will AGQ.

  141. Wes

    Mr. Miyagi,

    I split the bid -ask spread and got filled when I bought them.

    You can offer anything you want. Your offer becomes the highest bid.

  142. Gary

    The problem is if you need to get out in a hurry you could see that spread widen to $5 or even $10 in a panic situation.

  143. Poly

    Agree on the AGQ spread and if you’re on the other side of the C-Wave top when you want out, it gets messy fast. I too have seen prices exercising roughly in the middle of the AGQ spread. Not sure in a panic, but it wont be @ bid.

    Other concern is at the top of the C-Wave I’m going to be as leveraged as all hell, how do you sell the common short with little margin? I’m also with Schwab, so exercising the option before expiration requires broker assist.

    This would be a smaller speculative position to get the most out of the final daily right? The gains though can be astronomical, I posted here during the last INT top (Dec 2010) a 20 bagger on AGQ options (small position). So a messy exit might not be so horrible, if this goes the way Gary calls it. With those gains you pay the market maker his markup?

  144. Josh

    Friends,

    I haven’t been around for awhile, but I wanted to stop by today and thank you all for everything you’ve taught me about investing, trading, human nature, and my own foibles.

    As many have commented, particularly DG — this is a great blog, a great community, and I for one feel lucky to have found you all (even if it’s just virtually).

    Before attempting it, I would never have imagined that making money by owning something that trades higher day after day could be so difficult!

    Best to all.

    Josh

  145. Shalom Bernanke

    Angry Hippie,

    Yes, I buy dips and typically have plenty of dry powder. I only get heavily invested once I hold a strong hand, and since this trade is a big winner, am now as fully invested as I will ever get. (close to 100%-no margin)

    When I say I’m looking to add, I’m not piling in. More likely than not, I’m putting another 5-10% to work. Where I stand right now, my next add will begin to dip into margin. I try not to put myself in position where I will ever have to sell into weakness (unless stopped out).

    And don’t worry, we were printing long before the financial crisis, and have only stepped up because of it. The crises only serves to wake up the population as to what has been going on since the beginning, and now we see the money flows into to commods, and PM in particular.

  146. GottaHaveIt

    Should those of us who did NOT lighten up this morning (I’m still 100% invested in AGQ,SLW & silver miners) look to take some off the table tomorrow … or just sit tight because we may have missed daily cycle top? I’m still up quite a bit … but gave back a big chunk of my profits today.

    I was feeling pretty confident until I started reading all the comments on here from members who cashed out this morning because they think the top is in.

    Kinda feel like I stayed too long at the party.

    Opnions please … thank you!

  147. Wes

    Gary,

    I covered this in a post above and don’t want to get back into it.

    The short answer is short the common, exercise the option to cover.

    I did that 4 times today.

    No big deal.

  148. Shalom Bernanke

    I meant, “as close to fully invested as I ever get”.

    If I happen to need margin, it’s been a very good trade as I only “load up” when I’m in the driver’s seat, so to speak.

  149. Wes

    Poly,

    You’re forgetting that you’re getting out of everything at the market top. Sell everything else first to give the margin for the short.

  150. Shalom Bernanke

    GottaHaveIt,

    I did not lighten up today and will not into weakness. That said, we could very well (probably) get more weakness, even for several days.

    Since we cannot know, all we can do is look to buy a pullback if possible. I keep wide stops, and if I’m not taken out I’ll add some on margin (5-10%).

    This is just another “downer” in a series of new highs. Everything is OK. πŸ™‚

  151. BlueHawaiiFan2025

    @ San Diego Jack. I am also reading the Dr. Elias’s book. When the new post came out, I looked the 10MA and it shows a curl down and the negative money flow. I decided to sell the April 47 calls for SLW. I received $.80 per contract.

    @ Jayhawk. It sound like the Trading like O’Neil Disciple is the O’Neil system except that their put in their own nuance on this system. I haven’t had time to read it yet.

    Did DG write a book? What is the name of the title? Sorry, for some reason, I could not find it in the posting.

  152. Jennifer

    @Gottahaveit:

    I did take a little off the table today, but I usually just ride through these corrections fully loaded. Waiting it out is just part of getting to strong hand status. Once the tide turns back in your direction your losses disappear faster than they came. I don’t think any of the long timers here took off anything other than some profits to put to work. If you don’t have big profits yet, just wait it out unless Gary actually says “lets get out for a bit.” If you have big profits and some room to play around, then its up to you if you want to risk a whipshaw for some fancy footwork. Just my .02 – I’m not the best person to ask here, but I’m bored so I thought I would respond πŸ™‚

  153. GottaHaveIt

    SB,

    Thanks for the feedback.

    I’m typically not a panic seller, but I have to admit getting nervous when I saw that Gary and many experienced traders here sold a chunk this morning.

    I’m not comfortable with leverage, and I’m all out of dry powder, so all I can do now is either sell a little to take profits or sit back back and ride it out.

  154. Wes

    Thanks, Poly.

    Most brokers have a special number to call to execute an option. Fidelity doesn’t πŸ™

    Find out this number now, so you’ll have it handy.

  155. DG

    Gotta: It’s a question of your own gut, so no one can really answer that for you. If you are certain you won’t panic out at the bottom, you can just sit. This dip should only be a week or so. Will you be able to sleep after a couple of bad days? You are not leveraged so patience will work fine. I am a trader so am happy to sell and buy back higher if need be. If you sell and then go up will you freeze and miss the whole blow off rally? That would be very bad. So, sell and buy higher if need be? Panic and sell at the bottom? Answering those questions will tell you what to do.

  156. San Diego Jack

    BlueHawaii,
    Thanks for asking about DG’s book, was wondering myself.
    As for our reading book, Generate Thousands, because of it, I have a completely different outlook on the behavior of stocks & ETF’s. My analysis has greatly improved.
    Looks like you got out at the right time for SLW April Call with $0.80, since it ended at $0.19!

  157. GottaHaveIt

    DG,

    Good advice. I’m pretty much a buy and hold guy, I don’t try to time the “wiggles” as Gary would say.

    I can stomach a 10-20% drop in my portfolio (I wouldn’t like it, but I could tough it out) because I’m confident in the long-term bull market in silver.

    But there are people who with much more experience than me who sold some today, so that made me think maybe I should too.

    I appreciate the feedback from everybody. I know there is no “right” answer because it’s an individual decision and each person has to make their own call. I’m just trying to gather as much info and opinion as I can get to make my decisions.

  158. Ben

    Steven, the only time I’d give consideration to the LT versus ST gains is if I’m within a month or so. Even then it can get dicey. If I was that close, I’d consider a hedge with an inverse silver ETF like ZSL, but only for a couple weeks. If you plot AGQ plus ZSL over say three months, you’ll see that you lose a fair chunk, maybe 10 to 15%, due to daily erosion:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=3m&s=AGQ&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=ZSL

  159. DG

    Gotta: Fair enough. The experienced people will buy back higher if their sale turns out to be wrong. If you can do that it MIGHT be o.k. to lighten up. If you sell, you will then need to get back in lower so two tough decisions to save a few percent. Probably easier to turn your machine off for a couple of weeks.

  160. CMT

    Gotta: I was one of those who sold (I got rid of some holdings 15 minutes after the market opened). I got lucky on the timing, but could just as well mistime my subsequent entry, so if you’re not comfortable “trading,” I do think you can just ride the plan until it skyrockets or hits the stops.

  161. Ben

    Out of curiosity, I ran some numbers to see what hedging via ZSL would have achieved between Dec 7 and Jan 14th last year — just three weeks. So if you had $5k of AGQ, buy $5k of ZSL and sell both three weeks later. This ignore opportunity lost (or margin interest) when purchasing the ZSL, and assumes typical but better than average timing:

    AGQ:
    5000/157.92*135.36 = 4286

    ZSL:
    5000/10.23*11.28 = 5513

    Net: 9800, or $200 losses tacked onto the original $5k of AGQ.

    For that single three week data point, the losses from using ZSL as a hedge would therefore be 4%.

  162. n1tro

    Gotta,

    Don’t worry about the rest here and what they are doing en mass. If they knew what they were doing, they would have sold on Friday or at least take given the uncertainty of the budget issue and the whole “anything can happen on a weekend” play. I’m sure today’s selloff was based on a few articles released over the weekend showing a vertical silver chart and some analysts saying they are out. Once a few start selling it triggers everyone else and plays right into the daily cycle albeit early this time.

  163. Razvan

    GottaHaveIt ,
    i sold my silver last night at $41.65 for a few reasons. One we are close to cycle top, two the price had moved so far away from the moving averages and outside the daily bollinger that a correction was imminent and was not worth getting caught in a huge spike for a tad more upside potential. The only position i kept was gold but even that i trimmed. I got back into silver today with a smaller position and will ride through the correction or sell if we get another spike as Gary pointed out.

  164. BlueHawaiiFan2025

    San Diego Jack.

    I started following a blog who is doing what Dr. Elias is doing. It is free (she does have a tip jar). She explains her strategy which is based on the 102030 technique. Let me know if you are interested and I will send you the link.

  165. Eamonn

    Hello,
    I’d like to know if Gary is any good at making money after the c-wave is over, and we wait for the next one? I’d like to keep the ball rolling

  166. pimaCanyon

    Wes,

    I still don’t understand why you don’t just exercise the option and then sell the shares, rather than shorting and then exercising? Seems like you end up with the same result, no?

    If your account is maxed out, you’ll need margin to exercise, but you will also need margin to short, so you use margin either way you do it.

  167. Gary

    I can tell you it’s going to be a lot harder to make money once the A-wave has run it’s course.

    Enjoy this while it lasts because we won’t see anything like it again for at least another year or two.

  168. Steven

    So Ben,

    You’re saying there was a 4% difference in just 3 weeks? I supose those aren’t great odds but it would have to be better han 20% for most and 28.5% for me not to save.

  169. GottaHaveIt

    Thanks again to everybody who responded to my post explaining why you did (or didn’t) sell today.

    I like hearing your reasons.

    I feel better now that I made the right call (for me) to just ride it out.

    I’ve been expecting a correction, I just didn’t expect it to start today and I was caught off guard.

    I’m still learning about PM investing and I guess I expected to get a warning from Gary a day in advance. LOL!

    As I said in my previous post, I can handle a short-term loss for the long-term gain … as long as the conensus is that the trend is UP over the long haul.

    For example, I bought my first physical silver at $30-31 per ounce at the end of December, beginning of January.

    Then the market corrected and silver dropped down to $27 or so … but I never panicked, instead I just kept buying on the way down (until I ran out of cash) because I was confident silver prices were headed MUCH higher over the long-run.

    I still feel that way, so I’m comfortable hanging on and riding the bull until Gary and the other experienced traders on here tell me to get off.

  170. ...at ease

    Thanks for the post Gary, just worries, worries, worries, from a fickled bunch that we are. Our sentiments run along the lines of our funds balances.

    Just need SB to remind us…
    all is good.

  171. fubsy_cooter

    Gary,
    Thanks for the link to Old Turkey. Timely! I’m not leveraged, but carrying a large line for me…appx 90% invested.

    Old Turkey reminds me that had I sat tight through daily and even int cycle corrections, I’d have a wallop of a strong hand through this C-WAVE from the A-Wave bottom. I’ve still almost doubled my account in the last 18 months, but would be sitting even prettier. So, chilling until the market plays out its hand.

    f

  172. dvparekh

    Was this the reason for severe selloff on SLW compared to others:

    VANCOUVER, April 11 /CNW/ – Silver Wheaton Corp. (“Silver Wheaton” or the “Company”) (TSX: SLW) (NYSE: SLW) is pleased to announce that Randy Smallwood, currently the Company’s President, has been appointed Chief Executive Officer. He will replace Peter Barnes, who has resigned effective April 11, 2011. As part of the transition process, Mr. Barnes has agreed to enter into a consulting agreement with Silver Wheaton.

  173. ...at ease

    Could be the reason with SLW.
    Hard to say. I know David Skarica follows whose who in the industry and he says it does have a major influence on stock values as to who is running the mining companies. Just not sure on SLW.

  174. Wes

    @pima,

    You certainly can do that, but I thought my description of my 30 minute wait to get a broker today to exercise some call options was warning enough not to try that.

    A lot of money can be lost while waiting. The exercise is the only part you don’t control. Better to short first. Then the time doesn’t matter because the price is established.

    Perhaps you missed my post.

  175. ...at ease

    Gary,
    When you make the move to gold, will you be considering or recommending anything other than GLD? Just want to know in advance if I should be staying long in DGP and UGL as I have small amounts in those. I have to hold funds 3 to 5 days after selling before I can buy others within IRA accounts, so unless I have cash ready, I can’t move around as easy when time gets close between moves.

  176. n1tro

    TraderLady,

    My comment is not a shot at anyone in particular, its from skimming the posts this morning and seeing comments like “just got out in time”, or “lucky this, lucky that”. Seems people trimmed or got out as a reaction to falling prices versus anticipated it which is fine also.

    Raz,

    I’m not emotional like you. Weren’t you one of the ones crying doom and gloom during the last drawdown? For your info, I got out all after Hammy’s call which was spot on by the way and got right back in fully leveraged 15 mins later. I got out completely again on Friday based on my uncertainty about the budget issues. Saw the gap up Sunday night and got in for the ride up near $42 and currently half in at the moment.

  177. pimaCanyon

    Sorry, I must have missed that post, Wes.

    I actually did exercise a couple of my SLV calls and then sell the shares. This took like 1 minute at Think or Swim. so there was no waiting.

    On the TOS platform when you right mouse on an option position that you own, you get a menu and one of the choices is “exercise”. Looks like they’ve automated it. But the commission was more than just selling the option (I think $5.00 as opposed to $1.50), so I’ve just sold the calls since then. When selling options I use a limit order and make sure the price I’m selling at is at least as good as the share price. Because my options have been either SLV or GLD, I haven’t had to deal with the kind of discrepancy you’ve had with the AGQ calls. But if I did, I’d just exercise and then sell the shares.

  178. Natanarchist

    seems like you did alright n1tro as you mentioned these were positions outside your core. I didn’t sell anything. Since I don’t watch ticks, my thoughts were to to trim a little if we kept moving higher over 42 or 43. It seems that won’t happen for this daily cycle, so just sit and wait again. ho hum..

    NHL play offs start Wednesday..get your picks in now. Habs all the way…haha

  179. Tudor

    Getting out of some DITM SIL calls today was distasteful enough for me, I can’t imagine and don’t need the issues with AGQ. Going forward, I think I’m going to stick with SLV and SLW and not have to worry about taking it up the butt.

  180. n1tro

    Nat,

    I’m super leveraged so wiggles affect me but you’re right, my core is still sitting there untouched and will be for awhile.

  181. Edwin

    man you guys are risk takers with your leveraged route of margin, call options or miners.

    1450 for gold is on track, lets keep it at this level.

    silver it is a little bit overbought, this commodity needs to be slammed to 30 or even 21 to shake some people out. wonder how many people here would still be buying it then.

  182. ...at ease

    Eamonn,
    I was thinking of you today, as I know you want to learn but not sure where to start. I got a book returned back to me I loaned to a friend (they had it too long as I would have liked to have had it with me these last few months trading options). I think this book is the best I have found for those starting out and will reinforce what you are learning here from Gary’s charts and information from everyone else. It was written by a woman for woman hence the pink cover. As we know most trading or investing books are written by men, so I would not let this get in my way as it is good primer and excellent safe advice.

    I would recommend it for anyone wanting a good basic and solid foundation in options trading as it is a more simplified version and doesn’t assume you already know things as most books will tend to reference things we have never heard of starting out. Be prepared to take notes and practice with it. But I dont’ see how you could loose on this bull market with GLD options deep in the money especially if you are buying 3 months out and at cycle lows. You will learn the deltas and all other essential things about options. Now that I got the book back, I will go back and read again as I have learned so much, I might have missed things in the book first time around that will help me now also.

    Anyway, figured I would recommend it to those starting out or would want a good foundation to learning trading options. It is priced well and well worth the money from Amazon or Barnes and Noble online.

    “Options Trading in Your Spare Time. A Guide to Financial Independence for Women”. Wendy Kirkland and Virginia McCullough.

  183. Eamonn

    …at ease, I bailed everything out early today and escaped with light damage. I’m holding tight until I see the cycle low. Hopefully silver will go back down to $35 :oD

  184. ...at ease

    Eamonn, Did you hang onto a basic core of investments? The market can always turn during the night and gap up. Then you would have to chase to reenter. It’s not always a definate drop coming to reenter.

  185. Eamonn

    Hi at ease, I’m not a big shot player, yet, so I just pulled it all out and I’m waiting for a major low. I’m taking my chances this way. I’m up 50% in a few weeks and I ain’t gonna lose it. It’s too important to me and too serious. Maybe when I’m a millionaire I’ll think different.

  186. ...at ease

    Eammon, LOL, I am far from a millionaire Eammon, just using my retirement funds in place to grow them in the only for sure bull market in town.
    I follow sound advice from Gary. I hope you get that daily cycle low to get back in to make the bigger gains to come. I do understand your nervousness, as I was nervous about seeing my gains drop off again also, but we rode down once and came back up, so got to trust the system in place.
    Next time, just do half of what you are fearful of. What is Gary’s number one rule, NEVER short a bull market. I hope we get that low for you to get back in. I sold off some on Friday when the market was up to lock in some gains and have have powder for the possible cycle low. But I wouldn’t give up all my positions I hold incase he C wave takes off. As Gary says, what if he is wrong, you have to be prepared for all possibilities, spread the risk with the gain or balance them. Ok, hoping for that cycle low for you. I am working with you here, not critisizing your decision to sell all off. Nervousness, believe me I have lots of it.

  187. Rob L.

    Reading this board the last few days, with so many guys taking huge risks and bragging about it, reminds me of the message boards six months before the tech bubble burst. I’m sure that some guys on this message board who are 100% invested but with no leverage are beginning to feel as though they are missing the boat….damn…. I’m just saying that something has got to give.

    You guys are scaring the crap of me.

  188. Silverhound

    I wasn’t sure about the etiquette of posting charts on the blog and after reading today’s report I don’t think I’ll post any Gold or Silver charts. I’m doing this out of respect to Gary as I appreciate how distracting other peoples analysis can be. It’s the same reason I keep away from the forums and eliminate any noise when it’s close to crunch time for a position trade and stick to my own strategy.

    I had a similar target and strategy to Gary for the PM trade before I came across the SMT blog and when I stumbled across a link to one of his public posts on cycle analysis a month ago I knew it was the missing piece to the puzzle. It took me about 3 minutes of reading to reach for the visa card and sign up.

    Still in two minds whether to take my own price targets but the cycle timing will help a lot.

    Cheers
    Darren

  189. jeff

    gary
    how is oil shaping up ? we are getting close to the cycle and it looks very streched. could you comment on oil?

  190. discreet shopping

    Good Morning All, a few posts above someone asks : “Gary,When you make the move to gold…” When did Gary say he was switching to gold?Soon, or are they talking next A-wave,etc. Thanks.

  191. The Angry Hippie

    You made the right move Silverhound. Gary has a knack for timing. As a result I look at the markets in a completely new way, which is considerably more profitable.

    I had a similiar experience reading “Golden Fireworks”. I jumped into a position in gold before finishing the article, which was actually about silvers final run. Corrected my error, leveled my head and made a killing through March alone. Looking forward to the final run.

  192. ike

    What he said was as silver apporaches the 50 level — it will be close to 100% stretched above the 200 MA.

    Becuase silver is a thinner market, that will make it vulnerable to a violent shakeout that could be as much as $10 on silver.

    Switching to gold around the 47 – 48 level in silver will allow riding the bull longer and hopefully avoiding the volatility associated with silver.

  193. fat boy

    I was away all yesterday and missed the call and portfolio change
    I can watch first 15 min of open today then I’m done for the day again
    Ho hum old t or sell some into bounce?
    What do you think Gary ?

  194. Jayhawk

    Darren-
    Go ahead and post it. I’d love to see your chart. The public blog is free game and Gary said he doesn’t have time to read all these comments. I think he just hates getting blasted with emails and the constant hand holding stuff with subs. I try and post charts if I see something that supports our thesis or on individual stocks that have great patterns.

  195. jeff

    silver hound
    gary said not to be sending him emails about others top picking and such. posting on here is not a bother . also if you make a clickable link it helps those of us on a iphone. i find it almost impossible to copy and paste on the iphone

  196. 86d4life

    My question re switching to gold toward the end of the C was what vehicle to switch to. Straight gld, gdx, a top miner or one of the leveraged funds? Gld treated as a collectible, so extra 10% in tax. I thought the leveraged funds treated as straight capital gains, but also increased volatility especially at that time.

  197. ALEX

    Gary

    You had additional plan (mentioned in last nights report) that goes along with your portfolio change.

    I am assuming that even if it looks like Gold may take a stab at $1500 in the next 2 or 3 days, you are still making that change mentioned last night today, because it MAY BE the last chance to do so?

  198. Gary

    If we get a swing then I will complete the plan. otherwise like I said last night I’m not convinced yesterday was the top mostly because I don’t think we’ve seen the bottom of the dollar cycle yet.

    So I will bide my time and see if gold can make one more stab at new highs before finishing the plan.

  199. ALEX

    Thanks Gary

    That helps. I wasnt sure if it was an automatic ‘if it gaps open’ play.

    I’m here for the open ,but out for most of today, so I will either have to play a gap open and go from there, or just have to check in at noon and see what transpired at that point.

  200. guy

    Gary,

    couldn’t understand, now i see.
    my charts have european time table.

    they allready showed a swing high.
    guess that doesn’t count.
    quite annoying.

  201. Douglas

    Eamonn

    Good intro for options is a Rookies Guide to Options by Mark Wolfinger. He has a website too. McMillan’s Options as a Strategic Investment is the bible.

    OptionsOracle (SamoaSky) is an excellent program for Greeks/pricing/projections and it can be downloaded for free.

    I’ve been using options for ten years and am certainly not an expert. I have however paid a pricey learning tuition. They should come with a warning “options can be dangerous to your financial health.”

  202. pimaCanyon

    DG,

    What’s your thinking about the dollar now that it’s made a new low?

    (I didn’t take your dollar or euro trade. I’m sticking with only PM trades until this C wave looks done.)

  203. CMT

    Douglass and Eamonn, the SamosaSky site, crashed my browser and set-off McAfee alarms right and left. Just FYI.

  204. Chrys

    Gary – are we at the point in the C Wave where it doesn’t matter where the dollar 3 year low is for identifying a top in gold? We are now simply looking at the 200 dma and its stretch? Is this right?

  205. sophia

    ah ah DG, you are sweet!
    well, I guess that I got lucky!!
    Getting off soon though, it is too good to be true!! Thanks Goldman!

  206. DG

    PC. This is a “too over-stretched” type signal” so the additional dollar drop/euro rally just adds to it. I took a small position and will just hold it a bit. For me, nothing has changed. The same thing happened to me in OIH and it took a week to drop after I shorted it and it went against me. This is a minor trade so I can hang in there (I just bought 1,000 of the 2 X ETF EUO). I like to add on the way up and often start small as a result. The dollar being in a stiff bear, though, I will instead take the profit when (if?) it shows up as the bounce will be small. Not my favorite kind of trade but I believed my expectancy was positive.

  207. Gary

    Beanie,
    I thought oil wasn’t coming down because of the middle east mess πŸ™‚

    This is why I ignore news and track cycles.

  208. Poly

    Trimmed one more time at above even, didn’t like response to dollar and the down volume was huge. I’m content with lots of cash, see you all at the low.

  209. Francisco

    Gary,
    The dollar is at a lower low, and is below the November low of 75.63. Why do think that it will retest the 2009 low of 74.17 in this cycle?

  210. ...at ease

    Gary, I have limited access on my computer and can’t get to everything to watch what is going on. Does it look like the bull is going for that cycle low to knock folks off?

  211. DG

    Boy I’m torn now. An opportunity is coming or here to buy oil, but the fundamentals for it are awful and I am looking for a brief dollar bounce…? I guess I will stand aside unless oil take more of a hit soon.

  212. William

    Gary,

    What are the chances we are seeing a slightly stretched dollar cycle here and instead of seeing the low on day 11 (3/22) of the last cycle we are actually seeing the low on day 26?

  213. Poly

    Pima,

    I would guess that was recognition that many were edging over towards the exits. Gains need to be realize.

  214. Douglas

    CMT

    How long ago? I had problems getting data a number of months ago. Recently downloaded a new version and it works fine up till now anyway.

    Thanks for the tip.

  215. pimaCanyon

    Looks like silver will go to at least 38, maybe slightly below (based on trend and channel lines). Of course, it could go much lower, all the way to 33 – 34 where the channel line sits that’s drawn off the August and January lows. But if it did that, it would look more like an IT correction instead of a daily cycle low.

    If it drops to mid-channel, that would be around 37 or 37.50

  216. Edwin

    the better move was to collect on Friday not yesterday.

    gold was overbought, it’s back to neutral. it’s at my 1450 target i’m buying now..

  217. CMT

    Douglas: within the last hour. Googled the site, clicked through, and ALARMS. Didn’t even download anything. It totally froze my browser.

  218. Gary

    Daily cycle lows usually take at least 5-8 days to form. I doubt we will need to do anything till sometime next week.

  219. Douglas

    CMT

    Re OptionsOracle

    I just downloaded without a problem. Kind of strange since running OptionsOracle would seem to have no connection to downloading it.Could it be another unrelated glitch causing your problems? FWIW I use Chrome for my browser.

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