SILVER STRETCH

I’m starting to get the feeling that many people have now come to the conclusion that silver is bullet proof. First off let me warn you that we still haven’t seen anything that looks like a daily cycle correction yet, and gold is now moving into the latter part of the timing band for that short term correction. When gold dips down into that trough silver is going to follow.

Next let me show you a couple of longer term charts so you can get some idea of just how overbought this market is and how dangerous this is becoming especially this late in the cycle.

In the first chart I’ve noted that silver has now rallied 100% above the last C-wave peak. 

That’s much larger than any other C-wave rally. It’s pretty rare to ever see an asset rally 100% above a prior peak. That alone warrants caution. I also noted that silver is currently stretched 60% above the 200 DMA, also a new all time high. 

I suggested in a nightly report that we could easily see a $3-$6 correction in silver once the move down into the daily cycle trough begins. I have a feeling most people at this point think that’s virtually impossible. But is it really? Look at a $6 correction on that long term chart.

A $6 correction is almost insignificant. It wouldn’t even take silver back to the 50 DMA. A $6 correction would just be a normal pullback to test the March pivot and ease the extremely stretched conditions.

I’ll tell you what else a $6 correction would do. It would destroy all the over leveraged players. It would convince everyone that the silver rally is finished. And more importantly it would set silver up for the final spike higher to my expected target of $50 during the final daily cycle.

Ask yourself, are you so heavily leveraged that a move back to $36-$37 would completely freak you out and knock you out of your positions? If so then maybe you need to focus on these long term charts and ease back on your leverage until gold moves down into it’s cycle bottom.

When gold gets this deep into a cycle a move higher by the dollar almost always triggers a corrction.


The dollar is due for a short term bottom any time now. I expect this time won’t be any different in that a dollar rally will trigger gold’s move down into the impending cycle low.

This late in a daily cycle and this stretched above the mean it is becoming increasingly dangerous to keep your foot to the metal (pun intended). If you’re driving 200 MPH you might want to slow down to 100-120 for the next week or two.

572 thoughts on “SILVER STRETCH

  1. Parsleysagerosemaryandthyme

    Of course you guys can’t find my ticker AGQX. Are you elite like me? No. You can’t find it on your precious Yahoo message boards.

    I’ve been an Old Turkey so long my talons are petrified.

    My entire trading life has been a massive C wave.

    You are are perma-D wave wannabees.

    Come on DG, not at all funny? I tried my best. πŸ™

  2. sophia

    If there is one rule that I would follow is that when Gary ( who is a pretty aggressive trader) advices for caution, I follow the advice

  3. james r

    Francisco,

    To answer your question regarding AGQ getting filled at 225.

    Yes, that would mean the trade would trace back to 225 and then resume upward.

    James

  4. GottaHaveIt

    I hate to say this, but I would LOVE to see a dip to $36 because I want to buy more physical silver for my precious metals IRA.

    Sorry guys, nothing personal. πŸ˜‰

    Besides, after that silver will REALLY take off!

  5. Fergie

    Thanks for the hand holding Gary! ;)Hopefully, your detailed picture here will help calm nerves and help folks keep the bigger picture in mind.

  6. James

    Gary, looking at your chart, I see a virtually uninterrupted uptrend in gold from the end of January until the beginning of March. Is there some reason why we couldn’t see something similar now — i.e., no meaningful pullback for a few more weeks?

  7. Gary

    BTW we already got a $3 correction in March. It’s almost not visible on that chart. A $6 correction would look almost insignificant too except to those who are over leveraged.

  8. James

    Gary, my bad. You did indeed describe the factors that would make the current situation different. Sometimes it’s hard to remember all the pieces of the puzzle.

  9. E

    Gary, great post.

    At what price level it will seem that signification correction (3-6$) is not going to occur soon and it might correct at 50$. thanks in advance.

  10. ALEX

    From the end of the last post thread

    TRONDE56

    Can you post charts, I cant go back that far intraday?

    Thanks either way

  11. Robert

    You can’t always correlate a rising dollar with lower gold/silver prices.Back in late Oct and Nov. 2009 the dollar was marching up and also gold had a great run up also , up over $140 in Nov..There are many examples of this occurring as there are examples of what you showed on your charts.So anything can happen, i think the physical shortage of silver is a big reason for the price spike along with rising inflation .

  12. james r

    86d4life,

    The technical reason maybe based on fibonacci retracements.

    A stock may usually retrace itself
    a certain percentage. The most common percentages are 38.2%, 50% and 61.8%.

    In this case if AGQ would to retrace itself 50% from 280 to 174 (where 174 is the start of the run) we would get 227, which is about 225.

    Not exact, but close enough. In fact we may shoot a few points below 225 if this would to actually happen.

    James

  13. 86d4life

    James R,
    Thanks, preciate it. The fibos never dawned on me. With so many different theories and ideas flying around at a time like this, even the simple stuff can be elusive. Have you ever had the chance to use that in advance? Meaning found a gap, plotted it with fibos and then used it for a long or short target, which ever applies?

  14. Gary

    Robert,
    I don’t see a shortage in silver any more. When I go to any of the dealers everything is in stock.

    That’s what price does. When it rises high enough supply comes back into the market.

  15. Gary

    You missed the point though. Whenever gold gets deep into a daily or intermediate cycle a rising dollar triggers a correction. Early in a cycle gold can resist a rising dollar. late in a cycle it can’t.

  16. Jayhawk

    Doc posted a silver chart from Spring 2006…You will get chills if you see it. Price was motoring higher and high and was then slammed down out of nowhere for a -20% day. (April 20th, 2006). Price eventually formed a double top a month later, so old turkey at least gets you out then.

    I was thinking about AGQ…Since on the downside that puppy over compensates would it be down -50%?

  17. I've Eaten Silver

    So far this is played out exactly how Gary had envisioned it; retesting the $42ish mark with silver and approaching the $1500 again with gold. He also said that he thought the dollar would continue downwards because last week it was too early for a cycle low.

    He laid it out really simply yet detailed, yet there is still tremendous argument about gold/silver declining in the short term- this is also expected at this time.

    I’d quit the arguing and just see how things play out- and if you disagree with Gary the odds are not in your favor for being right this time.

  18. Gary

    Understand I’m not advocating exiting ones entire position. I certainly am not.

    I’m just warning those that are heavily leveraged to be prepared in case we do see a sharp correction. If you can’t weather a $6 correction in silver then you are probably too leveraged and need to ease off the accelerator.

  19. james r

    86d4life,

    I would not use it to short a security, (though I am sure hedge funds do) but use it as an additonal indicator.

    James

  20. I've Eaten Silver

    I understand, and if you are heavily leveraged if you have a proper stop, no harm done. I personally was 200% silver as of Monday when I then reduced down to 135%. I have since reduced down to 90%, and about 60% a mix of spy and qqq. I am 23 and can gamble with a little lev, but stops are important with the spy and qqq as well.

    I just would not sleep tight right now with anything close to 130%+ with silver so far stretched.

  21. I've Eaten Silver

    I just hope though that most people don’t exit everything and then somehow get burned, being too nervous to reenter when the time is right or getting involved in another trade without being able to transition back. There will certainly be some people lost when there is a correction, that is a guarantee.

  22. Francus

    Gary,

    If someone had theoretically exited their positions…unwisely… would you suggest they re-enter to some unleveraged point right away to avoid missing an unforeseen blowoff move?

  23. I've Eaten Silver

    I eat trolls. That’s why I’m here. And I’m always hungry πŸ™‚

    I’m in the works of building a BALCO II for all us athletes that need to pass the testing πŸ™‚

  24. I've Eaten Silver

    I’m hoping silver corrects nicely because I need those big C-wave blowoff top gains to afford my diet of 600 hard broiled eggs a morning. No kidding, it takes me 1 hour 5 minutes a morning for breakfast.

  25. Gary

    I don’t really know what to tell you. All I did was take off a little of my AGQ position to put into some SLV calls.

    Anyone who followed me still has plenty of skin in the game. Those that exited everything are probably going to have to watch gold go to $1500 before correcting. And of course if you get in banking on $1500 then it won’t get there before the correction.

  26. Francus

    Gary – Thanks for your answer. For myself a friend only sent me here a month ago, couldn’t establish a modeled portfolio yet.

    However, it would seem that someone having exited entirely, what they would want to do is to re-establish a portfolio on your model, even as we speak.

    This would mean buying in at reduced leverage.

    I left with profit in the mid-260s so that won’t hurt too much and will hedge both sides of the door.

    Make sense at least? Well, thanks.

  27. I've Eaten Silver

    For you newbies and less experienced what you have to do is ignore all the noise and simply pay attention to the ACTION Gary takes. There will be a lot of comment on various market trades, cycle lows/highs in gold and silver, BUT if Gary doesn’t ACT then he doesn’t see any probability really leaning in his favor. It is extremely wise if you follow his ACTIONS not words. This takes tremendous patience and fortitude, BUT if you can follow the plan you will be rewarded in the end.

  28. Francus

    Yes, that’s me Silver, thank you. I am Mr. Newbie now but hope to accompany this generous fellow with you to the end of the last C-Wave in 2016!

  29. Robert

    Gary,
    you are missing the point when it comes to silver shortage.The comex warehouse has seen almost 800,000 ozs of silver withdrawn in the last 3 days but only 2,135 ozs were received . The comex is in deep trouble that is one of the reasons the price has gone up .It has nothing to do with going to your local coin store.The price of silver is determined at the comex , not local coin dealers . there is no silver left at these prices .sentiment etc is irrelevant if there is no silver

  30. Mission

    Postcards from the edge: All week I’ve been lightening up my positions and twice today I filled out orders for AGQ and twice I canceled them. This is driving me crazy. Pull back already damn you!!

  31. TZ(4404)

    Robert,

    The silver supply at the comex warehouse has barely changed in weeks. You are listening to Organ aren’t you?

    Go directly to the CME site and get your data instead. The warehouse has been around 100mil oz for a while now (40mil registered 60mil eligible).

  32. TZ(4404)

    $6 selloff in silver? Sure it could happen.

    But I also suspect, instead, that we might now be caught in the final blowoff wave of the metals.

    It will become clearer friday afternoon. A strong surge higher on friday (which I suspect) will help confirm it in my mind. And the final move up doesn’t require a sharp pullback – it could just go and go. (However you do often get at least one – in middle of night as well.)

    If the metals *are* in their final blowoff wave (as I define it, not gary) then I would say 2-5 more weeks and then it’s over.

  33. ...at ease

    TZ, you are the only contrarian view on metals not having a final correction that I read. All others say there will be a drawdown/correction and then back up within a week according to the cycles and time of year. Why do you believe there will be no further correction or drawdown with the dollar pop?

  34. diana

    I’m a newbie here, have been reading the blog since Feb. and this is my first post.

    I am invested in PM looong term and have a few miner stocks. Is it too late to get into this C-wave? If I understand correctly, I should wait for the dollar-gold correction, then buy – what? AGQ?

    Thanks, Gary and everybody, for being so helpful on this blog – what a nice group of people!

  35. ...at ease

    Hi Diana, Yes we are waiting for the dollar gold correction. Gary will post for the subscribers once the USD bottoms what he recommends to buy for the parabolic C wave finale. You just need to have your funds ready to buy when he sets the trigger for the subs. Should happen pretty quickly here soon, week or two. Keep reading closely. Cheers!

  36. Moondoggie

    I’ve been wondering … “What ever happened to Chicken Burrito” … then Parsley Sage shows up ???
    …is this the new manifestation ?

  37. Silverhound

    Moondog

    Basil, Parsley, Chicken…….
    so many herbs come and go. Maybe an Angry Hippie smoked em while waiting for the next train to leave the station πŸ™‚

  38. Silverhound

    Morning all or evening, where ever you may be in the world.

    I’ve been catching up on some of the posts. Vonda I do enjoy your wit, a nice balance to the odd negative post on here. Your comment on mentioning position size is common sense and it shouldn’t matter. I actually find it inspiring when I hear in conversation what people are making and how. Unfortunately in the real world it tends to bring out the ego’s. Shame. Hope you enjoy your bourbon ‘n croissant waiting for the next train…..

    It’s been an interesting day.

  39. ALEX

    I am finding myself on the fence of 50/50-ville.

    I see Garys thoughts playing out ,I liked this POST even better than the nightly report, but also I see reason for TZ’s scenario playing out too (no big slaqmdown before lift-off).

    I am NEW to cycles (Aug with Gary, but not new to metals at all)…so I rode the 2006 run up but where were we in ‘cycle timing’ in 2006? I dont know..did we need a trendline break before lift -off then?? I dont remember.

    Yesterdays inflation numbers(p.p.i.) surprised to the upside-Silver up..Today C.P.I. in 2 hrs. inflation surprize?
    I CAN see that # bigger than expected, Gold takes off wkly for 3 wks, the fed does an interest rate hike SURPRIZE in May, and Gold slams down D-wave begins.

    Gary says in a C-wave blow off, indicators and trendlines mean absolutely nothing. If its now, do we need a trendline break here? I dont know.

    I also see a C.P.I. #, suckers rally to $1510, THEN sell-off , blow off C-wave…based on Garys Post last night,including the dollar and p.m. relationship.

    50/50 right now, but tradeable, Saw good signs in AXU, AG EXK MGH recently…GPL looks ALMOST READY?

  40. Gary

    Robert,
    I’ve heard the Comex default nonsense at three C-wave tops now if that tells you anything.

    And I’m sure we will hear it again at the next one.

  41. Gary

    Alex,
    I think the miners are giving a clue.They should not be diverging this badly with gold at all time highs. Even SIL is diverging.

    The one thing that has been consistent has been the cycles in gold. While the stock market has stretched and warped gold has adhered to it’s cycle count unvaryingly.

    Just about the time one thinks there won’t be a cycle correction that’s the time it will begin. Right when the retail crowd panics into the long side.

    They will get knocked out during the correction and then be the fuel to drive the parabolic move as they chase the next move.

  42. Shalom Bernanke

    Regarding the miners, unfortunately I would have to agree with Gary.

    The miners must either break out decisively and soon, or the metals correction is about to begin. Yesterday was news related, but if they can’t get upside momentum by early next week, I’ll begin to trim positions.

    I don’t feel any rush to exit and believe the bull will offer better prices to clip some shares, but miners had better get in gear!

  43. Francisco

    Gary,
    What do you think of the liklihood that a higher than expected CPI number this morning will be the catalyst to the dollar forming a bottom (end expectations of an immediate QE3)?

    Or do you think these numbers are meaningless in your cycle work?

  44. ahain1223

    yes the seasonal guy is back, whats interesting here is that my gold seasonal model (PM Miners) is showing some weakness now with some further strength in equities. Personally id prefer more of a pullback on equities before jumping back on the equities train (financials), definitely some downside volatility is needed to shake out weak longs. But gold is showing more of a prolonged move downwards now into beginning to mid may.

  45. Silverhound

    Alex,

    Whenever I get lost in the wiggles I always go back to the big picture. Some more on the repeating ranges that we discussed in our last post. You may already be familiar with this, if you are please accept my apologies.

    One of my mentors introduced me to the concept of repeating ranges a couple of years ago and I have seen much about it on the net and in TA articles since. It changed the way I look at charts.

    The current range on gold has some way to go before completion. The MACD crossing above the trendline was confirmation of this current range for me. There will be traders watching for this. If it is a blowoff top as is expected then we may need to look at some fib extensions for the final target, I’ve shown the 161%.

    Once the range is complete we have the SMT indicator to zoom in on the final top.

    Gold ranges

    Cheers
    Darren

  46. Matthew

    like at 39.4 when the train was leaving and everyone was told to get on board.. wrong… Then immediately after it was it’s time to get off for now… wrong… now silver just broke 42.70..it doesn’t look like a pullback is coming till higher levels…sorry but prob wrong again..Not trying to be mean to anyone but facts are facts and if you are wrong your wrong…

  47. Dan

    I’m taking TZ’s view, we could just keep going up for a few more weeks and that would be it for this run/season-we enter a correction that lasts into late summer.

  48. Gary

    Matt,
    Who said to get off. I clearly said this was for overleveraged players to just reduce leverage not get off.

    In my own account all I’ve done is reduce my AGQ position 15% in preparation to put that capital into SLV calls at the next cycle low.

    That’s hardly jumping off the train.

  49. ALEX

    Gary

    I DO agree about the recent divergences, and thus your caution on being too heavily leveraged is good and necessary advice due to that too. Thx.

    SB, I agree with that too. I was planning on lightening up on AG as it bounced on light volume, but it wasnt light volume. And even GDX seemed to have slightly above avg volume-but thats just 1 minor indicator I look at.

    With Garys thoughts in mind, I could see something like Ag and EXK double top here,and still look great when the sell off is over.

    Silverhound

    yup, I am familiar with that ( the big picture ,I use fibonacci projections, etc) and I like that chart. Thx

    OK, I’m 70/30 now –

    3o being surprises to the upside factor πŸ™‚

  50. The Angry Hippie

    Volatile times ahead, up and down. I hope the next few weeks work out well for everyone. I will be looking for that reentry point and if i doesn’t come I will see y’all close to the bottom of the D-wave.

    Hopefully I can upgrade my sailing vessel soon. πŸ™‚

  51. W

    Wow Gary,
    Kudos to you for going above-and-beyond with this most recent blog post. It helps newbie, non-subs avoid a disaster! And yet, the premium site contains so much more valuable info. For any non-sub, scrape up the entry fee to support a straight shooter. The only thing you risk is losing some ignorance.
    And, you’ll love the ride.

  52. Gary

    Trust me gold and silver aren’t being driven by CPI numbers. They are being driven by the dollar collapse… and momentum.

  53. Gary

    There were more hits on the blog yesterday than any other day in history. That alone should make overleveraged players nervous.

  54. Francisco

    Gary,
    Your answer to my CPI question was a little ambiguous, can you tell me how your really feel (sarcasm)?

    Are your dollar cycles completely based on sentiment then? How do you factor in other exogenous factors (like greece/portugese bond yields, ecb rate hikes, etc.) or are these factors captured in the sentiment data?

  55. Silverhound

    Gary
    Congrats on the hit’s you are getting. I couldn’t believe it when I logged in and saw nearly 1200 posts on yesterdays thread.

    Hippie
    Keep the little red tug but at least upgrade the “Toot Toot” horn to something bigger so people get out of your way when you are bumping around in a heavy fog lol.

  56. Gary

    Cycles are just a measure of human emotions. When we get a little too bullish then markets have a pullback. Too bearish and a rally begins.

    Individual asset classes have a “normal” timing band for when these turns typically occur.

    So for instance if the dollar was getting late in the timing band for a short term bottom and sentiment had also reached a bearish extreme one wouldn’t want to push short positions. The same holds true for gold or stocks.

    Gold is now deep in the timing band for a correction and short term sentiment, as evidenced by the rampant call buying has reached bullish extremes. The precious metals market is now in jeopardy of running out of buyers (briefly).

    Once the dollar rallies it should trigger a minor profit taking event in the gold and silver market.

    That will reset sentiment and then we will be ready for the final blow-off phase of this C-wave.

  57. DG

    Gary I posted this yesterday and you did not respond, so I am hoping it was the blizzard of posts, and not that it is a lame question. One more shot: Do you have any historical data as to how often the final C-wave blow off is preceded by a stiff correction? I, like Alex, am 50-50 on this question. Are there usually/always such correction before the final run? TZ, do you have this data?

  58. kmisak

    Great observation by Gary re: number of hits + over leveraged players = ripe timing for a correction. It will hopefully make us more money than any other mathematical formula ever has! πŸ˜€

  59. Bob loves Hawaii

    I actually bought some AGQ puts for May yesterday (250’s for $12.80I also intend to sell my SLW calls today and go to a core SLV call position.

    I shorted oil on Monday and Wednesday via UCO puts.

  60. Matthew

    imho DG..

    I think we are going to see a shot at 43 by close.. Now we would have to see a $2.70 pullback just to hit 40 again from last week. Now for this “pullback we would have to see a $4-6 quick pullback for a decent pullback… $4-6 buck quick drop seems unlikely IMHO.. but I am hoping that it will because I know alot of people follow Gary and I would like to see everyone make money..I am hardcore turkey with 20% willing to go on options and leverage so.. by the way I am sorry about the jump earlier it was premature…

  61. Gary

    DG,
    I was out climbing yesterday. When I get back there is anywhere from 200-400 posts. I don’t even attempt to go through those anymore.
    In 06 the final cycle up was preceded by a 6% correction in gold. In 08 the final leg was led by a 5% correction in gold.

    If gold can make it to $1500 and we get a 5% correction we would see a move back down to $1425.

    I would have to think that would easily trigger at least a $6 correction in an extremely overextended silver market.

  62. DG

    Thanks, Gary. I figured you were out doing your thing. So the last two times we were in this situation silver did correct. For me that shifts the burden of proof (that we aren’t go to get one) solidly to the “no-correction” camp since there are a number of other things indicating a pullback first.

  63. pimaCanyon

    Gary,

    Scary post!

    From the chart, looking at the way silver has doubled since the last C wave top AND is now stretched so far above the 200 DMA, seems like there’s a good chance the D wave could start any day now. So the obvious concern is that when the next move down begins, that WILL BE the start of the D wave.

    What gives you confidence that that move don’t will NOT be the beginning of the D wave and instead that PM’s will see one more push to new highs?

  64. Francisco

    For bloggers throwing out percentages and dollar amounts of potential corrections, are these your opinions based on your experience and gut feel, or are there any type of analyses that supports your numbers? If you have something that supports your predictions, it would be helpful to this newbie if you could let us know how you’re forming your conclusion. Thanks

  65. Brian

    The interesting thing is, we have for sure entered the momentum phase. I have friends who were telling me I was full of it for 2 years who have sold sold their stocks and dumped it into PM’s. They will be buying any dips for sure.

  66. Francisco

    Thanks Alex. Those charts are helpful to understand how you’re coming up with your numbers.

    Not shooting the messenger at all. I just want to be able to seperate the ones that have some kind of rationale behind them, versus ones were people just conclude randomly that we’re not correcting.

    For the camp that just follows their gut, it seems like alot just thought that we’d have a correction on Monday and Tuesday, and now we’re heading to the moon after yesterday’s action.

  67. Francisco

    Just to be clear, that wasn’t a knock on people posting their opinions. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, I just like to know how it’s being formed.

  68. pimaCanyon

    Gary,

    What would be the signs of a 3 year low in the dollar? Don’t we already have extreme bearishness on the dollar? Are you also looking for a technical feature to confirm the 3 year low, like breaking below the 2009 low?

  69. Kevin

    Thanks for all the commentary here. Learning some valuable lessons… You all are a great community. Gary has given me some ideas on call options already. DG, Alex, etc. would you mind sharing your purchases when the time comes, and how they turn out? I’d like to see some specific real-world results from your trades. Thanks for helping us rooks!

  70. Brian

    The big thing here is a lot of what Gary says gets immediately misinterpreted. For instance: Gary says he wants to raise a little cash to deploy elsewhere if we get a correction.

    Translation: 1. Gary is coming off leverage. 2. Gary says to get out now! 3. Gary said to go to (insert % here).

    It’s tough being Gary!

  71. Silverhound

    Divergence on the MACD suggests there is a potential correction coming as well although this isn’t a difinitive indication and could go on for some time as we saw in the move through October, November, December.

  72. DG

    PC: NO D wave yet. Gold sentiments is barely above neutral

    Hag (I guess I ought to add the “gerty to your name): I think a correction is likely in part because they have preceded the other C-wave blow-offs according to Gary, so why not this one? Especially with the dollar due to bounce.

    Kevin: I rarely buy calls. I will load up on AGQ when correction comes. I will post my timing there.

  73. torero91

    Yash,
    Most people here and most successful traders don’t follow EW because it simply doesn’t work. The most followed EW’ers of all, Prechter and McHugh, are consistently near the top of the list for worst timers. Case closed.

  74. ALEX

    FRANCISCO-

    I believe when I wrote ”dont shoot the messenger”, it was just self preservation mode, not directed to you, because I hadnt read your post right before mine was posted,yet. I was writing mine while you posted yours.

    no worries man

  75. Yash

    tore – i am not saying ew should be used. I do not use it myself as primary tool. but it helps to calculate numbers if ew count and gary analysis is matching which is case of tony silver /gold count. Tony c us equities count is different story.
    why not pick up good things from everyone.

  76. ALEX

    KEVIN

    Sure, but I have to ask…You new here?

    you said, “DG, Alex, etc. would you mind sharing your purchases when the time comes, and how they turn out? “

    I think together we’ve posted over a 100 real time trades πŸ™‚

  77. Brian

    At ease. The triangle on the monthly dollar chart has a target of 62ish, for what it is worth. Lots of folks don’t like targets and we will get other signs like oversold rsi on the monthly, etc.

  78. Aaron

    Cycle high on day 23 (today)…the correction coming next week (if it comes) should be swift. Blink and you miss it, for those waiting to get back in.

  79. ALEX

    S.B.

    Actually I retired from my fulltime job last year do focus on this, but agreed to sign on as a consultant. They only seem to call me in when I really want to be by my P.C. (like all this week, between DR appointments! No time for the markets πŸ™

    And so I am off for the day again…expect something to happen while I’m gone!! Its like clockwork πŸ™‚

    Good day Market men and woman!

  80. torero91

    Yash,
    I respect your right to present ideas, it’s just that there are tons of blogs that deal with EW. Gary has posted that EW is not useful. This is a great blog that is not polluted by EW. I encourage you to not post EW stuff here. I agree with you: “i am not saying EW should be used.” If folks want to read about EW counts, they can always go elsewhere.

  81. Francisco

    At ease,
    I think that Gary thinks that it is possible to overshoot that low before we see a bounce. We should probably go back and reread the premium posts to confirm.

    BTW, Is anyone besides myself doing the math in their account for how much (more) you would’ve been up if you hadn’t reduced your position sizes this week? Perhaps Basil will come post this morning to tell me how stupid I was, so that I can feel worse than I already now :0)

  82. Gary

    Usually a daily cycle decline will last 5-8 days. This one will probably be no different. It takes not only price but time to ease sentiment.

  83. New York

    miyagi,

    just saw that chart you reposted THANKS! That’s exactly what I was looking for.

    And thanks in case someone esle made that original post I didn’t bother to go back and look…

  84. Aaron

    atease, as Gary mentioned above, its a few day event, yet the majority of the spike down could be a 1 day event, and it could be intraday for all we know. This is afterall the final stage of a C wave, and things can easily get out of hand.

  85. Gary

    Fran,
    I’ll let you in on a secret. You are never going to catch the exact top or bottom or any move.

    You might as well start calculating how much you would have saved if you got out and avoided the correction. The problem is that very few people can sell into strength. It takes getting caught in the down draft before they can exit. By that time they have given back a lot of profits.

    I’m very confident we will see a cycle low and those that stay heavily leveraged are going to be in trouble at some point in the next week or two.

    They will pay the price for trying to catch every last penny.

  86. ALEX

    Torero

    No kidding on McHugh!

    I got his free 1 month subscription and signed up with Gary at the same time last Aug.

    He emailed me for 5 months warning of a terrible Hindenburg omen crash / Market great depression all last Aug,Sept,Oct,Nov-

    I just didnt see it, so I kept trading,but Very Distracting to say the least!

    How DOES that guy make money??

  87. Haggerty

    I think we are do just because of the two huge gap up day’s in Silver, yesterday and Today. I just bought some may zsl (19) calls only with play money.

  88. Aaron

    Gary, perhaps this can be answered in your nightly report, but with this cycle running long, would the next cycle (the last of this C wave)be expected to run short? and would it also be LT since it would have to roll? Meaning that we would only have 10 days or so to go up 150+ dollars…

  89. ...at ease

    Thanks Francisco, just look at it this way, you can now pick what you want to ride up with.

    Thanks Aaron, just trying to figure out how to add back in, scale it in or all one shot (here it is, there it goes).

    Thanks Gary, that makes more sense, more drawn out agony. πŸ™‚
    As I have to be at the computer more than I had planned during this time away.

  90. Gary

    This cycle isn’t long yet. Normal is 20-28 days. gold is on day 23. If it were to top today and then drop for 5 days it would just be a normal cycle.

    But let me say again I think this is being driven by the dollar cycle. If the dollar cycle runs short then we could see a long dollar cycle that would drive a long gold cycle next month.

  91. Francisco

    Thanks Gary. I was just kidding and actually feel pretty comfortable taking profits into strength. I got in much higher than alot on this board, so I really didn’t want to be exposed if we had an ugly correction.

    I stated yesterday that I still do expect some type of correction (gut feel)to provide another entry point. If not, I’m comfortable adding at higher prices, once I believe (with your confirmation) that the next leg up has really begun. I don’t mind forgoing some profits in the meantime. Like you stated, I’ve learned that I can’t top-tick a stock, nor can I call the absolute bottom.

    Thanks again though.

  92. DG

    My long dollar/short euro trade is starting to work. I am content to hold it until the dollar bounce gets out of the way, even if there is one more dollar dip. The dollar rally should coincide with the correction in PM”s so everything is fairly lined up from my perspective. Of course if silver does correct $6—from $45—that’s fine with me!

    Still long SPY—Poly, are you? Bought PHO a couple off day ago, but it’s just a toy as it is too thin to buy much. Mostly just waiting…

  93. torero91

    McHugh=McFade.

    Thanks Yash. If Gary and EW are in sinc, it’s just a random event. You know what they say about a broken clock (EW), right? πŸ™‚

  94. DG

    Gary and all: When the time comes, the experienced traders are going to light up this board with Sell! posts, so anyone who misses it and gets caught is a fool, stubborn, or both! Prepare yourself mentally now to sell “too early.” You really don’t want to get caught the day after a parabolic rise peaks. I have seen many of those and EVERYONE runs for the exit at the same time that next day. Gary is not kidding when he says silver could drop 20% in a day—that’s 40% on AGQ! You probably don’t want to be long that day, eh? Prepare mentally now or you won’t be able to pull the trigger.

  95. Silverhound

    Yash

    I enjoyed your posts on EWT and hope you keep posting as you see fit. I’m sure there are closed minds around that don’t believe in cycles either…..

    Cheers
    Darren

  96. Yash

    thanks darren. ew fibo ratios definately work. all computer trading had to programmed and there has to be some mathematics behind it. it cant be just random. problem is there are just too many ratios and possibilities and so people keep one ratio in mind and something else happens and then they ew is useless. its just taken from pure mathmatics sense and keep options open. e.g. 41.93 could have been top too as that was fibo 1.2 ratio too and thats why we got at least some correction but now it want to go higher so go to next ratio. you can not say becuase 41.93 top did not work ew is useless. as you say same goes with cycles. top can come on 20 days or 28 days. its just time band. anyway I agree that ew is bad mouth a lot so i won’t bring it here again.

  97. Duuuuuude

    Gary, with so many comments to manage now, I would suggest that a great improvement for you and the rest of the people who read comments here would be to take TK up on his offer on his comment system. You can’t beat free!

  98. ...at ease

    Thanks DG, LOL… I have been preparing for that day for months now. This trigger finger is ready… I am not afraid to sell (sold off half for profit and riding half full now, waiting for cycle low to load back up). I just need to be at the computer at that time when you all holler out SELL! So the worry is not about selling, but getting to the computer to push the button fast enough! LOL

    Right now just trying to get through to the load back up holler point. Half the time, I am resetting computer, looking for access connectivity while traveling. No place like home and those comforts when you need them. πŸ˜‰

  99. W

    Haggerty
    ok, knock it off. Appaerntly we were bidding for the same position. I picked up some 18’s instead…so there!

  100. GottaHaveIt

    DG,

    When you and other experienced traders put up your “SELL!” posts how much do you plan to sell?

    Will you sell EVERYTHING … or keep some in the market just in case you and Gary miss the call?

    I am currently 100% invested (no leverage) and I plan to keep 30-35%in the market after the “SELL!” signal just in case it proves to be wrong since nobody can really know for sure what is going to happen.

    What do you think of that plan?

    Thanks for all your great posts!

  101. DG

    At Ease. The drop is unlikely to come during the day. Most likely is a blow-off huge up day that weakens mid-day and closes down. The down won’t be that bad, but the next day could be an eye-popping drop. So you don’t have to worry about being a few hours late, but you do NOT want to be a day late. And Gary said he sells “too early”. I like to see that reversal before I exit but will lighten up some on the way up.

  102. MrMiyagi

    GoattaHaveIt,
    That’s a personal choice. I would say if you are not selling everything, 30-35% is a little high.
    Maybe 10% maximum.
    Put in another way, you’ll sleep better.

  103. YesLetsDiscuss

    Gary,

    I am trying to understand something here…is there a technical reason why Apr 12 wouldn’t be a daily cycle low with an 18 day cycle. Assume that this is say, the first or the second daily cycle coming out of the intermediate cycle. And there aren’t really an expectations of the bog parabolic C wave end in the following daily cycle.

    In other words, whether Apr 12 can be called a daily cycle low in its own merit without future cycle expectation.

  104. DG

    Gotta: I will sell every share. You have not lived through one of these parabolic blow-offs before. Keep one share of AGQ as a keepsake if you like, but you don’t want to see AGQ down 150 points from 375 one day do you?! If I am early and it goes higher, it’s o.k. with me that someone else makes some money. Your expectancy is very negative (small additional gain vs. horrendous loss).

  105. ...at ease

    DG, I like to see a reversal also before selling, however realize this is one time, I will sell early. No problems there. Anything to be made is on the way up. πŸ™‚

  106. trond56

    After studying the intraday carts of silver before the final takeoffs in 2006 and 2008; -There were no scary corrections beforehand. Just patterns very similar to today’s
    2006,4 hours candlestick chart +On the upper left is stages of last days development inserted:

    http://www.flickr.com/photos/[email protected]/5620883312/sizes/l/in/photostream/

    Note the similarities, and same rate of ascent, the correction even started on he same date, 11 April, both years. (An equal percentage-wise rise today would take silver to 46$).

    Intraday chart (4 hour candles) 2008:

    http://www.flickr.com/photos/[email protected]/5620513537/sizes/l/in/photostream/

    In 2006 came another top, i.e. double top, 16 trading days later. In 2008 one can see that there were also double top, then the D-wave started.

  107. ...at ease

    Gotta, I planned on keeping a 1 share of gold and a 1 share of silver, just as a momento of the great C wave. Will keep it in my Roth as a remembrance. πŸ™‚

    No need to stay on board as you will reload at the bottom of the D wave getting ready for next ride up for A wave.

  108. GottaHaveIt

    DG,

    OK … I have seen the light!

    I will follow your (and Gary’s) lead because you are right, I have not “been there, done that” in the PM market before like you guys.

    That’s why I’m here!

    Thanks for saving me from making a bad mistake.

  109. CMT

    Hasn’t someone warned us many time that the correction before the C-Wave finale will scare many into thinking the D-wave has begun? Sure seems like a lot of people are convinced this is the finale, so the next correction must be the D-wave. Interesting.

  110. GottaHaveIt

    DG,

    Just curious …

    I know it’s impossible to know for sure, but what is your guess for a range of how low the silver price might go during the D wave drop?

    The reason I ask is because I’m planning to add to my stack of physical silver and I’m wondering if you think we will get back to the low 30’s or even lower.

    In my case, the lower the silver price drops the more I like it.

  111. ...at ease

    Trond, thanks for sharing those charts of previous C top offs. Scary enough to reinforce… time to SELL as you don’t want to be on that D downslide!

  112. DG

    Gary: If you feel to, a response to, I’d love to hear a response to Trond (nice work BTW, Trond). I assume that you feel we are in a different place in the rally from what he has shown, though the patterns do look well correlated.

  113. DG

    Gotta. No idea where the low will be. I work off sentiment and oversold and it’s hard to know how far we have to drop before people get too bearish. Gary put out an estimate at one point and I’m sure will again once the D-wave has started (I think it was 1/2 the rally–?). I also own no physical because I believe we have another cycle or two before things collapse. I will buy later (as for a shortage later, everything is available at a price and I will have hopefully made so much trading the PM’s that I’ll happily pay up for the physical).

  114. MrMiyagi

    The price is threefold now so those ups and downs are magnified as well.
    Most kell over like frightened goats at a 1$ drop, can you imagine the herds thudding at a 6-8$ drop?

  115. YesLetsDiscuss

    Gary,

    I second Duuuuuuude’s idea. It would be great if you could take up TK on his proposal to give you free access to the Disqus commenting system. Perhaps during the D wave.

  116. Gary

    Dg,
    I don’t really think matching patterns from a prior C-wave to today has much predictive value.

    This C-wave has already turned into a three leg move as opposed to the two legged rallies in 06 and 08.

    Every daily cycle has come like clockwork for 10 years now. Every intermediate cycle has played out on cue.

    The same with the dollar.

    So I don’t see any reason to expect a sudden change other than too many people are getting extremely bullish into extremely stretched conditions.

    I’m just going to continue to follow my plan. If gold can move above $1500 I will decide if i want to reduce AGQ positions a bit more.

  117. Kevin

    Alex,

    Yeah, I’ve totally noticed your posts. Just wanna make sure I see what you do, cause you’re one of several here on the board whose trading thought process I like, and I respect your comments and general attitude.

    I guess you could say “I like your moves… I like your style.” Not crushing, just a quote from the Starsky and Hutch move…

  118. Gary

    I would warn again for those who are over leveraged that the miners are not confirming the move in gold.

    SIL is not confirming the move in silver either.

  119. ...at ease

    Gary if they are not confirming, what does that mean, adjustment to funds. Can you explain… just trying to understand, although I am not overleveraged. thanks in advance.

  120. Jin

    I like the comment system as it is. I do not want to see a few people with big mouth driving others away, and bring down quality of the board.

  121. Duuuuuude

    Jim, I don’t either. The system the way it is now forces you to read through a lot of posts and clutter. I believe TK or Discuss does allow a way to filter some of that “noise” out. It is going to get worse before it gets better.

  122. Gary

    Mr. M,
    The further this continues without a correction the closer we get to one. If gold makes it all the way to $1500 before correcting the odds keep increasing for one and the further it stretches the more likely it will be sharp.

    So I’ll probably take down a little more of my AGQ position if gold makes it past $1500.

    BTW the HUI has now turned negative.

  123. fubsy_cooter

    I lightened up a little more today. I’m the mode of selling strength and buying weakness. I see the risk as a parabolic rise already beginning and missing some profits, but to my thinking, the bull has too many riders to be sprinting from here.

    Everyne who is going to buy has either been on for a while or is buying now. Who’s left to fuel the run?

    I also think a parabolic top is the logical conclusion to this monster C-Wave. Anyway, just stating my agreement with Gary in these regards. My risk tolerance is skewed toward missing profits on the upside rather than losing them on the downside. So, I’m now appx 65% invested and will drop to 50% with Gold exceeding 1500.

    if we get out correction, I will be loading up with gold breaking the trendline of the daily cycle as Gary illustrated. I will replace every share sold on the way up plus an additional 15% or so.

    f

  124. YesLetsDiscuss

    Silver’s been in congestion for the past couple hours while Gold has gone up in an orderly way. I guess Gold was trying to catch up with Silver now after lagging yesterday.

    If there is a ramp up this afternoon, it might be on the cards to take Silver above 43 and Gold above 1500.

    What happens from there is the big question. Gary thinks we go down big, Doc thinks we go down but not so big. And our fellow commentor who has been right several times in the past, TZ, thinks we continue to go up.

  125. Francus

    Mr. M – I will try that, thank you. But you and everyone just reload manually over and over again realtime? Could explain record hits!

  126. Ryan

    FB,

    I did the same I lightened up more today now at 70%. Locked in some gain with AGQ/HZU and unfortunately sold some late entires of SLW near BE. And if Gary does lighten up at 1500, I will do the same.

  127. Razvan

    im taking profits again on silver if we can get close to $44 on sunday.

    in the meantime i cant stop watching my account balance adding digits by the minute. I am starting to feel like Toni Montana

  128. Shalom Bernanke

    If SVM’s behavior doesn’t shape up very soon I’ll have no choice but to cut it loose. It’s been a great trade overall, but this action is unacceptable.

  129. pimaCanyon

    Yash,

    I apprecaited your posts, sorry you deleted them.

    IMO posts that project targets are welcome. Analysis to support the posts, also welcome. If someone doesn’t like the analysis, fine, they can just ignore the post and move on.

    Ratio and Fib analysis works, but of course there are usually several possibilities as you’ve said. Even so, I like seeing the numbers.

    Gary has been very welcoming to ALL posts on this board. If one commenter wants to limit posts to ONLY this topic and NOT that topic, that’s HIS problem. As I said, he can always just ignore the post and move on.

    So keep posting!

  130. ...at ease

    Yash, we don’t mind the posts of information, just for some of us, we don’t know what we are reading, so if you want to give an explanation of what you are posting. that would be great for those of us learning. We have sponges for brains in learning mode. Thanks for sharing. πŸ™‚

  131. Peter

    Gary,

    We may be seeing the PM divergence with the major indices taking place, as you’ve been forecasting. We’re seeing it with the miners at the very least right now.

  132. DG

    I have to say that I have never seen anyone use EW theory well. There are so many possible interpretations and so many shapes and sizes that it doesn’t seem to predict anything. Proponents are great after the fact in saying “See! Here’s a perfect wave pattern” but if you can’t do it in real time it seems of limited value. Is there anyone with an established published track record using primarily EW to trade well?

  133. hkc

    DG and all:

    Would appreciate any early signal on Spy. I went in a little in my 401k at BB low. We have a system at work that requires us to place the trade b4 noon EST.
    Yash, please keep the discussion on ew, I learn so much on this blog, and since many of us r rookies, any charts, explanations are greatly appreciated!

    Thanks to all.

  134. pimaCanyon

    DG,

    I believe Glen Neely uses EW well–that is, he trades profitably using EW.

    However, he has taken EW and added many more rules than the original (and even some new wave patterns), so he calls it Neowave instead of EW. But it’s still EW, just his enhanced version of it.

    It’s very technical, however, and usually takes someone a year or more of spending a lot of time with it to make it work. There are easier ways to become profitable as a trader IMO.

  135. DG

    Eamonn: Still long ZSL? Now you can see why we warned against it. It’s crazy to short a super-strong bull market.

    Less: the most interesting thing about that website comment (Kimble’s) is that he says “don’t short silver until the trendline is taken out.” This is exactly what Gary and Doc are talking about. Breaking the trendline will get the chartists to short it, make the bottom, and then have them chase to cover on the way up. Fascinating. Perfect.

  136. Jay Lin

    I agree with DG.

    EW is a tough way to trade and invest. I subscribe to David Touri, who I think is a great EW practitioner. But even for him result has been uneven.

  137. DG

    PC: Thanks. Interesting. I suspect he uses even more than his enhancements. Good traders develop a sixth sense about what’s happening from years and years of tape reading. If it isn’t strictly rule-like (taking a year or more to learn implies it isn’t) then gut feel is probably also involved.

  138. MrMiyagi

    Starting to see some weakness?
    Maybe it’s me wishing!
    Like last week, we’re is headed into a weekend with momentum. Usually it doesn’t continue come Monday.
    Come on cycle high!!!!

  139. Yash

    sorry guys and gals (if there any!)
    I never intended to start ew discusion and how good or bad it is. IT IS of almost no use in real time.
    It just helps to calculate many numbers out of which one will be right.
    Gary is keep saying gold will pop up 1500 .. why so. I am sure its not just arbitary round number which he likes. Similarliy ew gives few numbers and one of them will come true. Note “one of them”
    Thats why I said 43.76 on silver. I think that equates good with gold 1500 too. AGQ will be 304-305 Again its just one number of the many numbers.

  140. Silverhound

    DG
    I know a trader locally that uses EWT religously. You should see his charts, he goes right down to the minuette i,ii,iii,a,b,c,d,e waves. I take one look at his charts and say “good work Dave” then move on as it hurts your eye’s looking at it. He admits they take a lot of work to do up a chart on a stock.

    I think the basic simple 5 wave structure has merit for mapping crowd emotion.

    Wave 1 = initial awareness
    Wave 2 = first profit taking event
    Wave 3 = awareness of the masses getting on board
    Wave 4 = smart money exiting
    Wave 5 = blow off top then a.b.c down

    Rinse and repeat.

    The price projections for each wave seem to be repeating ranges and fibs

    If it gets more complex than that I fall back on other TA

    Cheers
    Darren

  141. Ryan

    Just curious, since we all are expecting a correction and the miners have already gone down the last few days even though silver was up, when the correction comes, any guess with how the miners will behave? You guys think the miners will hold up a bit better with the pullback of silver or just as bad?

  142. Clarkatroid

    i halfed my risk and cashed out 50% of my portfolio a couple days ago, and yeah it feels very amateurish. it also feels like a mistake as silver booms higher day after day, and gary stays fully invested,but i lived through the tech boom and im still scarred with it.

    i had 9k invested in 3 stocks, i was 26 years old, circa 1992, and my portfolio expanded to 15 stocks in 8 weeks, and a book value of 198k sterling

    i was ready quit my job and become a professional investor. in the following 8 weeks my portfolio went to under 5k. i was totally devastated

    wind on 20 years and the situation feels wierdly similar. im 92% up in less than 12 weeks(thanks to finding this blog) and im sure this is a naieve perspective, but thats enough for me. 300k profits tyvm, cashed out my original investment and jammed the profit margin 100% in AGQ, 100% of house money.

    maybe next year ive have the balls to up the ante and stay the distance “all in” but i dont want to be greedy.

    Now i have a kinda wierd feeling, i feel amazed at this years profits, im in awe of the professional traders here who live like this(i wish i had the stomach to do it) but at the same time a little sick im still not 100% invested

    this is the first major bankable win for me and it feels good. i dont care if silver hits 60 bucks on this c wave, if it does, then brilliant, ill make plenty more money, but……. my bollocks are no longer on the line.

  143. ...at ease

    Ryan, I don’t have good fuzzies with miners (but that is me, I like solid consistant gains). So I sold off when I could get out of the red and took my money and will put it in metals when its down. Just as surprised by SLW AGAIN, that one just loves to Suck my money out of my accounts.

  144. kmisak

    I just sold out a little more than half of my EDR (EXK) shares into strength. If this correction does hit, the miners WILL go down. If Endeavour hits Alex’s $10 target, I’ll happily buy them all back.

    Having followed Gary to the T most of this c-wave, I am now down from 130% to about 70%. I guess I’m hoping to get a little lucky, even though I know that overtrading hasn’t panned out for me in the past. Old habits…

  145. Shalom Bernanke

    Well, I glad I held to get this few extra days of “bounce” if one can call it that, but the miners are leaving me no choice but to clip some more. Cleared out of SVM, and I’m taking half off the table in the other names.

    This will leave me less than 50% invested. It’s been a good run, but unlike the AGQ/silver only traders, my accounts have not regained the highs of last week. I’ll look to deploy the proceeds into the expected cycle low in the next week or two.

    Bottom line is the miners aren’t acting well. If they had bounced hard along with silver and held it would be a different story, but they leave me no choice. I don’t want to be in the weaker vehicle once the strong one (silver) turns lower.

  146. Wes

    If someone came along and offered to show you how to make more money than you thought possible on a trade, but the deal was you couldn’t profit on the first 10% or the last 10%, but you could make the middle 80%, would you take it ?

    Of course you would. I suggest you think about all you’ve made so far when we get near the end of the C wave and just not sweat the final 10%.

  147. Shalom Bernanke

    Jay,

    I’m agree on SIL as well. I’m going ahead and bring it down to 25% invested in all positions. Heck, I might just book everything and prepare for next entry. πŸ™‚

  148. Greggy_M

    Everyone,

    I’m so impressed with Gary’s use of cycles that I want to learn more. Any advise on books or people I can look to for education?

    I’m becoming a HUGE fan of cycles work….
    Thanks,
    Greg

  149. Jayhawk

    Ryan-

    That’s the thing about these miners that frustrate me. They don’t participate in silver’s last rise, but they will be more than happy to join them for the trip down.

    IF we do get a solid correction, I think they will go down hard too, but I would look for them to diverge at the bottom, leading the way up. (Esp our hot ones-AG, EXK, AXU)

    SB-

    I got lucky and cut EXK and AG near the top. Cut SVM Monday, then on Tuesday’s pop unloaded all my SLW & SIL. My original intent was to move that $ into AGQ, but I missed a good part of yesterday and didn’t get in so I’m stuck waiting for some kind of pullback.

    You guys would laugh at what % I have in now.

  150. ...at ease

    SB, I did, I cleaned out the laggards and put my price on the ones I want to keep, if they can buy them off me, fine, if not they stay for the ride up to the top.
    I want fresh good reliable powder for the final wave. So I don’t blame you at all. Got to know when to hold them and know when to fold them.

  151. pimaCanyon

    Jayhawk,

    Okay, come on, tell us, what percent? Promise not to laugh.

    (I dumped my miners last Friday, got lucky and got out of SVM at 16.13. But miners were a small part of my overall position, most is in SLV shares and calls, and GLD calls.)

  152. ...at ease

    Jayhawk, I think we are all surprised by what we have in now, but we also have been listening to Gary’s warning and that last cycle low we rode, was rough enough. I want to sleep again. πŸ™‚

  153. Vonda

    Great story, Clarkatroid. Couldn’t have explained my own “amateurish” position better myself, and you and I are in almost precisely the same psychic space.

    I may not be living at the Ritz (that never really appealed to me anyway) but I’ve got the freedom to work on my writing chops. (Thanks for the early-morning (here) nod, SilverHound. Surprised you’re still up!)

    At today’s AGQ high, I had a missed opportunity cost of about 9% total portfolio, which was mostly AGQ plus a few SLW calls which I was lucky enough to have cashed in before they keeled over.

    If we get that break down, I’ll make it up handily as I have no fear of buying into panicked sell-offs.

    And if not, as I hinted yesterday, Mr. Ellington knows the plan:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQBnmrKrL6Y

  154. pimaCanyon

    Clark,

    If I were up 300K, I would book the profits too. Congrats! AND, you still have skin in the game here, more money will be made if silver goes to 50.

  155. kmisak

    I’m not convinced we should ‘get rid of the laggards.’ Gary said on one of these monster threads that he expects the laggards to play serious catch-up during the finale. So I sold off half my biggest disappointment, Silvermex (the run from .35 to .85 was great, but it has languished in the low .70s for MONTHS). I’m keeping the other half in case Gary is right.

  156. Shalom Bernanke

    at ease and Jay,

    I didn’t mind the miners coming down, even sharply, but after being patient for the bounce and seeing their lack of participation when silver rocketed I can’t justify holding right in front of the expected pullback in metals.

    Even worse, some miners did rally hard, like EXK and especially AG. Overall, I’m not turned off to miners, but they appear to have made most of their move this round. We’ll see.

    I’m trimming further and aim to have a great weekend!

  157. pimaCanyon

    thanks, Yash. And no apologies necessary. As I said, I like seeing price projections.

    Yeah, EW is a bad word for a lot of folks. I see it as just another tool in the toolbox, and more often than not it’s not a very effective tool. But sometimes it does the job. You just have to be aware of its limitations.

    I know Gary has said that it’s worthless, but I still sometimes look at charts from an EW perspective.

    Gary has also said the only thing on the BoW/SoS list that has any predictive value is SPY. But I still pay attention to GLD, SLV, GDX, etc. when they show up on that list.

    Now don’t tell Gary these things!

  158. Silverhound

    Vonda
    I am on “International time” for a while. It’s 3am Saturday morning here now. Most days I miss my own market. My body will love me when this C wave is done and I can sleeeep zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz πŸ™‚

  159. pimaCanyon

    Wow, Jennifer. That’s ominous. Could it happen here? I think yes, but probably not any time soon. Maybe near the top of the NEXT C wave, three years or so down the road. Or the one after that (if there is one after that).

  160. Vonda

    Silverhound,

    Sleep is good! I love that I sleep in most mornings and miss the opening fireworks on this continent.

    Sometimes–like last night–I catch you “middle-of-the-night” folks chatting as I take a peek at the spot price when I let the dogs out. Sick habit. Can’t wait to shake it. Checking the spot, not letting the dogs out.

  161. gold silver troll

    every blog that I read (including ours) is predicting a violent pullback in silver before a takeoff…

    I’ve never seen this before…everyone is in agreement

    maybe this one time everyone will be correct

  162. Shalom Bernanke

    at ease,

    You’re correct, I don’t have a problem riding through drawdowns but there has to be a good reason for me to stay and the bounce left a lot to be desired.

    I’m getting out of here for awhile, but will check in before the close. Good luck traders!

  163. ...at ease

    Jennifer, you have to trust yourself, not depend on the govt or anyone else. It does not hurt to put some aside for down the road safety or egg money in old age. My worry is, it’s not enough to buy a safe that can’t be stolen and not sure where to put it for safety. They say you can’t trust bank deposits and worry where can you hide it. That is why I love the insurance commercial with the little white dog, worrying about his bone’s safety. He just can’t sleep not knowing where he can protect it. πŸ˜‰ However, I would rather have it than not, what will paper be worth? So thinking what rock to put it under…

  164. pimaCanyon

    goldsilvertroll,

    That does not bode well for it actually happens. I’ve said this before, but what would fool the most people is if gold and silver just continue to grind higher with nary a pullback between now and $50 silver and $1600 gold. And then we get the pullback, but instead of a pullback it’s the real thing, the dreaded D wave.

    That would suck.

  165. Gary

    If gold and silver continue higher with no daily cycle correction then I would not buy into a dip. I would instead look for an exhaustion day to exit all positions.

  166. Greggy_M

    I’ve only been at this a short time but if I’ve learned one thing that’s “if everyone is expecting one thing the exact opposite will happen”. So I hope everyone isn’t expecting a deep correction like us. Simply for my own greedy purposes;-)

  167. Ryan

    Jay and at ease,

    I still have about 25% in slw and sil and those entries I’m in the green. But honestly I’m so tempted to just take the profits and run (slw red as I type) and redeploy in AGQ/HZU. I’m in totaly agreement with your Jay, it’s so frustrating seeing silver up slw down, silver flat, slw down! But who knows maybe with the expected pullback and the rally in S&P, the miners will hold up better (HAH yeah right!).

  168. John

    Hi all,
    It seems like everyone is talking silver today. I am back into cash as of now. Miners are diverging to much. I think a major correction is impending. I am not going back in until I get confirmation of a bottom on the daily cycle.

  169. Edwin

    well miners fail to make new highs too much drag.. i hope this turns around end of day or Monday.

    oh well cheers for the gold high. woohoo

    the party will end quite soon though. I’m a buyer at 1460

    choo choo

  170. Silverhound

    Vonda
    One way to kick your habit would be to leave the dogs outside, that way you wouldn’t have to get up to check the spot price πŸ™‚
    That’s where mine stays, on the back porch, flea’s n all.

    Time for one more frothy espresso here then off to bed to dream of my precious miners tumbling next week. Like I need another coffee …..

  171. Gary

    Greg,
    The only reason people here are expecting a correction is because of how deep gold is in it’s daily cycle. It’s strictly based on one of our more successful timing tools.

    I can assure you by now almost the entire market is expecting gold and silver to just continue higher indefinitely.

  172. Clarkatroid

    hey thanks everyone. This is a fantastic forum and i enjoy playing a cameo part in it

    At ease, yeah ill probably pony up 10% or so when gary adds the rest. no more

  173. Jennifer

    At ease, yes – where to keep it….

    Anyone have opinions on Bullionvault? I set up an account with them several years ago, but never bought any physical to put in it. Made me nervous, although I haven’t heard anything bad about them. They gave me a free gram of gold to start.

  174. gold silver troll

    Pima,

    I agree…I remember last year, everyone (including me) went short in the stock market and the the market just kept chugging higher and higher and higher and we had like a 80 day daily cycle

    so yea anything is possible

    I also trust Gary more than anything πŸ™‚

    As long as we all have atleast some money riding, we will do just fine πŸ™‚

    I dont mind chasing…i’m sure that Gary will know when a runaway move is happening

  175. Ryan

    at ease,

    Oh yeah I definitely know what wishful thinking does. I still remember I wanted to offload SLW on monday and then it was down a few points and I was hoping for a pop on tuesday to sell but it got a spanking instead. Maybe I’ll wait near the EOD and see what I should do.

  176. ...at ease

    Jennifer, I did the same thing and haven’t done a think with it. LOL
    I just started buying gold coins and put them away. Funny they clink differently than our coins do. πŸ˜‰ I like it. Once you buy some, you like em. I figure will keep collecting for a couple of years like you do quarters and then cash them in when the market is higher. Might take a real nice world cruise with it. Who knows. Can dream anyway.

  177. gold silver troll

    Pima,

    Also yes when we look at the chart trond posted about 2006, you are absolutely right…we go straight to 50 and then the d-wave might start or maybe double top after that

    We have a great coach on Gary and regardless of what happens, hopefully, we all made money this year

  178. Vonda

    SilverHound,

    I’m the porch dog in this family. I’ve got big, old Border-mix that joins me.

    Other than that, I’ve got a Queensland who won’t leave the equines alone, and a basket of pooches that would make good coyote snacks. So they stay in and get supervised nightly outings.

    Good sleep and rest of the weekend to you!
    See you at Ag’s downslope.

  179. Francisco

    Just a thought…

    If this board is a good indicator of sentiment, I’m now reading many more posts about people playing it safe and locking in profits (including myself), as opposed to buying more options like we saw last week. Feels like the sense of euphoria has subsided somewhat. If this is indicative of the market, is it possible that we might not see as pronounced a correction as we’re now all expecting?

  180. MrMiyagi

    ..at ease..
    I do believe a downturn is coming, I just got confused by his statement of not buying.
    I think Monday markets go higher as Google goes in the back of memory lane, SPY & DIA are up, QQQ down (Google..). Just as Gary had mentioned.

  181. Vonda

    Don’t remember what the official language you all use for that Spyder trade, but it’s doing all right. After a couple of stagnant days, am up 6.6% on May 126 calls.

  182. diana

    At ease, thank you for replying. It seems I am coming late to the party, and wasn’t sure if AGQ would still be a good pick-up. (I’m not going to do calls & puts yet.)

  183. TZ(4404)

    >every blog that I read (including ours) is predicting a violent pullback in silver before a takeoff…
    >I’ve never seen this before…everyone is in agreement

    I’m not in agreement. 6x and holding. Increased yesterday. Expecting a close at the highs today and 2-4 more weeks like this before exit (as all the people who sold and waited can’t take it anymore and buy).

    >If gold and silver continue higher with no daily cycle correction then I would not buy into a dip. I would instead look for an exhaustion day to exit all positions.

    That comment from gary is on my page of thinking.

  184. DG

    TZ: Gold sentiment (COT, Rydex, Public) is pretty neutral. Do you see that getting extreme in the next 2-4 weeks?

  185. TZ(4404)

    this article someone linked earlier:

    blog.kimblechartingsolutions{DOT]com/2011/04/painful-if-attempting-to-short-silver/

    Clearly showed, in my mind, why we had an ‘event’ or cycle bottom or whatever this week. The actions of the people on the blog confirm it in my mind.

    That page shows a BUNCH of people jumping in and shorting silver. Then getting crushed being wrong. They can’t get out fast enough now.

    Tues was a very high volume selloff in gold,silver,GLD, and SLV. Go look intraday at those ETFs and see the brutal volume spike.

    Lotta positions got blown out. Lotta people lightened up. Lotta psychology changes. etc.

    Those lows held (while everybody continued lightening up and looking DOWN.)

    Heck, you guys are STILL LIGHTENING UP TODAY!! as we are at new highs and climbing. I’m seeing selling from posters left and right.

    I MAY BE WRONG, but I think we set the most recent low on tues and are now rising in the final few weeks which will end this C.

    I think people out or without positions are about to get tortured until they just give up and buy. That will be the top.

    (A close of $1500 in gold today would really seal the deal for the next few weeks.)

  186. TZ(4404)

    I’m giving my opinions here. Not trying to drag others along or influence ‘the plan’.

    I have stops at levels if I’m wrong and I have and will be again in the future. Comes with the game.

    That’s a warning to anybody who thinks I’m infallible or going to call this correctly. We will see in hindsight.

    Follow whatever plan or person you think is appropriate and that is suitable for YOUR situation.

  187. TZ(4404)

    DG,

    >Gold sentiment (COT, Rydex, Public) is pretty neutral. Do you see that getting extreme in the next 2-4 weeks?

    I dont’ have a lot of experience with that sentiment stuff. I’ll defer to others and incorporate their views.

    I’m trading and looking at this thing from my own angle and my own techniques that is much more technical (chart) based.

  188. TZ(4404)

    I’m also not saying there won’t be a sharp selloff up ahead.

    I simply believe that FOR NOW we have already seen a recent selloff on TUES that accomplished what was necessary (and that that TUES low should hold going forward).

    But as to what happens forward and at higher levels, who know.

  189. DG

    TZ: Fair answer. I do use a lot of sentiment stuff, and typically, before a real blow off people are already too bullish. I am amazed that the gold sentiment is as neutral as it is. For me, that’s what argues for a modest pullback and then a sharp new rally. Once I see “everyone” bullish I am out of here. The question is how we do that, but I don’t see another few weeks of rally being able to do it/ I suppose if we go straight up we may get to nose-bleed bull levels, but easy to track with only a slight delay so we’ll see. Fascinating.

  190. Michael

    TZ,

    I have the same opinion as you are that’s why I am asking Gary if it would be out of line for this cycle to stratch for at least two more weeks. The other mechanical system that I follow showed resistence last Friday and if we went through it on Monday, then that would have been the top. So the decline on Mon and Tue was a good thing. Now this resistence from Friday is 6-11% above us and it keeps rising. Once we reach it, that would be it, unless we rise though it…

  191. Matrix

    I am a new sub so sorry if my question has been answered. What are the possibilities that we do not get a $3-$6 dip on the daily cycle and we just go down after hitting $46- $50? Maybe the Fed announces end of QE on april 27 , as Casey has written recently, and gold, silver & all commodities are just down for months or a year or two?

  192. Gary

    This C-wave finale is being driven by the dollar collapse. Neither gold nor the dollar have missed a cycle correction or bounce out of that cycle correction as is the case for the dollar.

    It’s late enough in the gold cycle that when the dollar rallies out of it’s cycle bottom it should force the daily cycle correction in gold and commodities (don’t forget oil is also deep in its cycle and due for a move down).

    If gold can somehow ignore the coming rally in the dollar, then I might buy into the no cycle or extended cycle theory.

  193. Francisco

    TZ,
    No need to be apologetic for your position. I think it’s great that you’re taking the other side right now.

    I think that everyone on this board that has an opinion of what will happen, is strongly considering the other side as a possibility as well. If we didn’t, everyone would be either all-in or all-out by now.

    Definately keep the counter-arguements coming….

  194. Dan

    TZ,

    I could not agree with you more and is exactly why I have been adding the past few days as posted.

    We corrected and I, like everyone else here, expected a deeper correction but once silver broken to new highs it was time to reevaluate that stance. I think we have just gone too high too fast and were too late seasonally for a deep correction here and then a continuance of the uptrend. IMO the next large correction will be the D-wave.

  195. Gary

    All in all cycle theory has been one of the best timing tools I have in my tool box. I don’t think I will be abandoning it right now before it’s even done anything wrong.

  196. MrMiyagi

    Gary,
    Since I joined in March, everything you said materialized. The Japanes earthquake threw some timing off and a couple of cycles were slightly off but within the timeline.
    Like you said, if it ain’t broke…

  197. Brian

    We had a swing high and a move lower. We had a swing low in the timing band for the cycle low. We have now moved to new highs, which normally confirms the new cycle.

    Gary is my mentor on this and he feels the move was inadequate. Doc also found it inadequate. Did it meet the normal qualifications? Did it remove positive sentiment? Could it stretch?

    I guess the price action will answer all these questions, but the move left a lot of doubters, that much we know for sure.

  198. coolkevs

    Kevin Depew is on travel this week, so no updates from him the last few days. In Demark land, a DAILY sequential buy signal on the DXY recorded last week – as this is good for 12 bars (days in this case), this will go into next week. There was also an overlapping DAILY BUY setup that recorded on Tuesday. There is supposed to be a reaction of 1-4 bars (days), good through Monday, but so far it has been dead on arrival. Will Monday see a big bounce? If so, Gary’s daily cycle correction in the metals will match up. I am thinking that DXY 72.5 is exerting a major pull down to get that monthly exhaustion point – 3% away!
    SPX – still needs to record a new high either this month or in May to record a MONTHLY SELL setup that will be good from June to September. The DXY will already record a perfected MONTHLY BUY setup next month, so keep that in mind as it looks like the metals have one more rocket blast left.

  199. EricH

    Can’t recall there’s been a day like today, where GOLD and Silver hitting new highs and both up more than 1% with the miners down (red).

  200. Steven

    Gary,

    Are you still expecting a tag of $1500 before a correction begins?

    Also, do you expect it to go a little over so the big boys can get out?

  201. Francus

    coolkevs,

    I am trying to understand what’s happening with the dollar and when it will start cooperating. Can you interpret your technical post? Thank you.

  202. DG

    Gary: I like that idea. I think that will be the tell. That is, if the dollar rallies and gold rallies anyway, then it seems that we’d have to be in a runaway move and that the blow-off phase has started. I am long dollar/short euro right now and am expecting that dollar rally at any moment. Let’s see how gold reacts then. I bet it tanks.

  203. Francus

    DG – Are you saying you’re expecting ‘the’ dollar rally that Gary wrote about above, coming off the three-year low, although it hasn’t gone that low yet?

  204. blammo

    What I am seeing on this board is people selling their miners. The miners *are* weak and could be sniffing out a top in the metal. This is exactly the kind of behaviour we would expect at a C Wave top.

    I currently have a full position of silver (SLV calls and AGQ/HZU) but only a handful of miners.

    I will add to my silver positions if we get our correction but I won’t add to my miners. This is also ‘the playbook’, so we will see.

    $50 silver is the number on every blog so it is hard to see how the market pivots on that number when it is so well documented.

    We are definitely near the crux of this climb (as Gary would say).

  205. DG

    Francus: Yes, though I will not quibble with Gary if he thinks the dollar needs to go a little lower first. For me, we are stretched enough that I am now long. If we dip a little more first, fine. In any event we will get a bounce from here or a little lower, at which point gold should tank. If it doesn’t, that would be indicative of too much buying pressure beneath it and mean no correction.

  206. Keys

    I have to agree with most on this board, a nasty correction is coming. I have zero leverage at this point, and bought some protection for what I hold. If this turns into a D-wave (no correction ironically soon) I want to make sure my bases are covered.

  207. I've Eaten Silver

    Anyone else expecting a gap up on Monday with the miners???

    It most likely is just hedgies shorting the hell out of them for option expiration today. I see them jumping up Mon, maybe Tuesday, then getting hammered again with the swing high in gold.

    Anyone agree/disagree? Not that it will affect my trading, just curious on your stances. I don’t like unloading right now into this weakness with my miners when silver is at an all time high. There has to be some bounce very soon if silver stays loftily above $42.

  208. I've Eaten Silver

    JReality,

    Someone commented yesterday about SPY showing up on expiration week like clockwork in the SoS, they said it was bookies adjusting positions or something.

    Anyways if you look over the past few weeks there is a net BoW of over 300 million- still bullish I’d say.

  209. DG

    I’ve Eaten: The miners have been dogging it for a while noe. That can’t all be because of OpEx. Maybe some of today’s weakness, but look at the charts. I sold my SLW on 4/11 at 46.25. It’s 42.70 with silver zooming! They could gap up Monday and just make back some of their recent losses. They’re way too weak, IMO.

  210. Kevin

    Hey Traderlady, does it seem to you like a realization of the Greek restructuring or something like that should have pulled up the $?

  211. MrMiyagi

    Ladies and gentelmen,
    Lets not lose decorum here and throw discipline out the window.
    The cycles have not failed even when faced with worldscale events.

  212. I've Eaten Silver

    DG,

    I completely agree- I’ve offloaded 75% of my miners the last week, I just trying to time getting rid of the rest here soon. Think I’ll wait until the Monday pop.

    There will come a time when the hedgies no longer see it a worth while trade to go long the metal short the miners, but the question is, how long is that from now? Could be another 2 years (next C-wave)!

    My guess though is they’ll get rid of that algo once the D-wave bottoms.

  213. TZ(4404)

    An interesting bit about today: it is option expiration for GLD and SLV which have a lot of contracts out.

    It is very likely options are causing gold and silver to peg around certain numbers (or have resistance going up).

    However, options expire at 4pm, but gold and silver trade till 5:15pm.

    So we could see some very interesting effects after the options close/expire until trading stops in the metals.

    Once we move past 4pm, for example, if the amount of call options is holding gold and silver lower, we could see the metals continue climbing for over an hour.

  214. Shalom Bernanke

    Brian,

    It depends what time frame we’re talking about whether I sold into weakness or not. Earlier this week was weakness on a shorter (daily) time frame, and I didn’t sell. Longer term (months), miners have been a score for this time period.

    From my perspective, the only weakness sold was intraday as the miners couldn’t hold up. So in that window I’d agree.

    If I was only long silver I would not have sold, but miners cannot get going. The selloff didn’t scare me, but the weak and failed bounce has.

    Hope that clears up the reasoning for my move. πŸ™‚

  215. Shalom Bernanke

    And the leaders, EXK and AG have not held up as I’d expect today.

    The bottom line is it’s getting sloppy in here. I still think metals will go higer, but will wait until the miners and metals are moving together (into a cycle low), or the miners show they’re done going down. Right now I’m not convinced miners will jump if silver does, but have plenty of proof they’ll puke if silver heads lower.

  216. Shalom Bernanke

    One last thought, and this one regarding the S&P. Lots of people are expecting a rally and I had similar thoughts, but my opinion is slowly changing on that front as well.

    Yes we’re oversold, and I’ll wait to see how strong the bounce is, but I’m get more tempted to short stocks in the next couple weeks (perhaps through summer).

    If the rally is strong I’ll stand aside, but if the S&P can’t get it together, I’ll short the S&P or Nasdaq

  217. DG

    Sold my SPY’s. 22nd day in a row of very heavy SoS and late day fade. We may go higher (I’m not short), but I have no opinion right now. sentimentrader’s basket of indicators shows severely overbought. Day after OpEx is usually weak…I’m outta here. Going flat is easy. I don;t have to swing unless the pitcher hangs one over the plate. Decent quick trade.

  218. Shalom Bernanke

    A stock like SVM (and many other sliver miners) should have bounce 8-10%+ out of the Monday-Tuesday decline, not be approaching Monday’s low at $14.

    If miners can get into sync with silver soon, I have no problem owning them again, but when silver has big % gains and into new highs a couple days in a row and miners (except a few names) only bounce a few %?

    If Gary’s right about a cycle low approaching (he usually is), I don’t want to be on the weak horse.

  219. Brian

    SB, Gary will probably be proven correct again, but I am not making portfolio adjustments this late in the C Wave. I’m on for the ride until I hear Gary say we should exit everything. I respect your reasoning though.

  220. traderlady

    Unfortunately, some of us were late to the party with not a lot of wood so to speak as others, who have been accumulating at lower levels.

  221. sophia

    SB,

    I agree with you…bought Nsq this morning, sold back with 13 points profits and quite happy to have done so when looking at the price action….

  222. Yash

    every major top is come intraday since agq low of 116 so i am assuming today is not top and so my 304-305 figure remains open using EW !!!

  223. Jayhawk

    TOTALLY agree SB. If they are freed up next week and start moving (if silver is still going nuts) we can get back on board. My sell points are above current levels, so mentally I’m fine with getting back on board some of these.

    SIL as a proxy for the overall silver miners. Looks to be a bit gassed here.

    I noticed the first trend line out of the intermediate was back tested 2 times with the 2nd getting that large sell off. Now we are sitting right on the new trendline and look to be in a bear flag that would target the weekly cycle trend line (black) at 26

    SIL

    On the positive side, looking at SLW’s action back in late Oct…It got stalled out finding support on the 40EMA but was pinched between the 40 & the 15 EMAs for 4 days before gaping up over the 15 and finding support there. It went on the give a 70% return the rest of the cycle.

    Also, this 42 level has been hold for a while…price just hanging there, looks like it it may break. SLW needs to prove itself here.

    I was hoping to see SIL and SLW close above those bear flags and SLW get a close above the 15…To hard to tell right now, so waiting seems wise.

    SLW

  224. Ryan

    I actually did a lot of selling today. Trimmed a bit more off AGQ/HZU and now completely out of all miners (that means gap up Monday for everyone holding on miners). I was just so sick of seeing how much strength silver had this week and seeing the miners down. Unfortunately that means I’m only 40% in now. I don’t think I’ll be dipping in any miners for the finale, I leaning towards all AGQ/HZU. Waiting on Gary’s call now.

  225. bamster

    SB,

    I don’t know what to think any more. Gary says we are going to correct, TZ says we are going higher. Lots of conflicting views on the blog lately. I hope we do get the correction just so it will reset everything and everyone will be on the same page, even though I still have some money in the game.

  226. Poly

    Hi all,

    Couldn’t resist another look in on the blog before departing for vacation this weekend.

    This run has been unreal and already parabolic in my book, unless it checks itself. Up 27% in one daily cycle, come on, wow! Up to almost $43 Silver is fantastic, beyond expectations just a few weeks back, even my lottery play would have paid out $50k on the $5k investment today, LOL. Oh well πŸ™‚

    But I’ve played before and I’ve won and lost big before, I couldn’t resist taking my chips off the table here, regardless of any further parabolic upside.
    So right at the market close, I closed out all of my SLV July Calls, now 100% Cash. I’m not looking for critics, it’s just my personal play based on my experience, right or wrong is ok.

    You all know I play a calculated leveraged style and now is not the time to be caught naked.
    The run from Aug to now has netted me over 600% gain! that’s total portfolio. I’m smiling ear to ear. But being leveraged and watching Silver climb Everest like peaks, without a healthy pullback here, has me banking my bucks and playing the sideline.

    If we get the drop I suspect, I will be back in with a stack of cash, when everybody is screaming D-Wave. If this just shoots to $50 and beyond, then I will most likely miss that entire move. It will be fine with me.

    In any event, the profits have been phenomenal, can’t ask for more than that. Good luck all either way. Now I’m off, 7 nights Turks & Caicos all expenses paid for 6 people, courtesy of the previous lottery πŸ™‚

    Follow Gary and you will win big.

  227. New York

    Gary, and others…

    You mention 1500 for gold and the closer we approach the more likely a pullback becomes. At this point. we are only about 10 points away from that number with no pull back as of yet.

    Wouldn’t it be prudent to assume we are close enough and trim ahead of the ‘crowd’ at this point?

    I’ve already lightened up on my leverage a bit and considering more. I’m up about 70% at this point so I have a decent hand.

    I’m also considering dropping the miners as I got into SIL late and couldn’t weather a big pullback.

    Maybe drop SIL and trim some AGQ back to core until the pullback comes.

    So far, I have had no problems buying on weakness and already have sold into strength…

    Any thoughts welcomed!

  228. CMT

    Poly, have a great vacation. I just came back from St. Barth, having let silver pay to take me, my wife, and our best friends down for two weeks to celebrate the wife’s birthday. I could get used to metals paying for my hedonistic lifestyle!

    I hope your trip is as much fun as mine was! Don’t get sunburned!

  229. Jayhawk

    Engulfing red candle on SLW’s weekly too on almost 90M volume.

    Regarding TZ’s calls. I like him and think he is a good trader, but the newbies should know that he calls were off almost the entire cycle from August to Dec. Clearly has a better feel for things this go around, but just listen to Gary and Doc if you are a sub there too.

  230. Wes

    I have been in the silver trade for 50 days.

    I figured out that through yesterday, my account has been up 1.55% per day compounded for 49 consecutive days.

    Albert Einstein, when asked to name the strongest force in the universe, said “compound interest”.

  231. MrMiyagi

    Weekends are momentum killers.
    In any case, if Monday it rockets up, I’m positioned to make money. If it digs down, I’ve got some cash left to solidify into the final push.
    As long as it doesn’t go sideways until August, I’m fine.

  232. MrMiyagi

    Also, I can’t take any advantage after market, Canadaian brokerages (at least mine) don’t trade outside hours.
    So, I am cool calm collected, I hope you all are.

    Maybe it’s from my previous life as an air traffic controller….

  233. Natanarchist

    well my plan was to wait for 1500 and 43+ before thinking aout taking off some leverage. close enough. lightened up to 130% right here, right now.

  234. bamster

    Mr. Miyagi,

    I believe you posted you were with RBC. How do you feel about there trading platform? I am waiting for this c wave to end. Once it does, I’m closing my account. I don’t know what your experience is with them but I don’t find it normal that it takes 5 minutes for a trade to execute, whether its options or shares. Also, most of the time I cannot get real time account details which makes it difficult for me to know what my balance is and what I own real time. I’ve had to keep track by writing my trades on a piece of paper and crossing them out when I’ve sold them. This outfit has cost me so much money that once we are done with the c wave, I am going to sue them for all the grief and loses they have caused me.

  235. MrMiyagi

    Natanarchist,
    In Canada, the union fought long and hard to get 2 controllers for midnight shifts. This way one sleeps half the shift while the other (theoretically) stays awake in position.

  236. Jayhawk

    Poly-

    Simply awe inspiring, CONGRATS!

    Can you please outline your strategy? (I know you use options and those here need to do their DD, but walk us through your trades.)

  237. Clarkatroid

    Wow wow wow. Congrats poly

    “Did I read that correctly? You converted 9k to 198k in 8 weeks. Seriously? Wow!”

    Yeah but I lost it all. I was very very naive.I Received a random letter through the post promoting penny shares. Bought 3 lots of 3k worth, all tech stocks, one of them went from 2p to 56p in a week .

    It was a bit like the boiler room film , where the saleman pitched me a line, the one I remember was a tech stock that sold security encryption software to process online payments and his line was ” this is a gold rush my man and this company is selling the shovels “

    As my account grew he was encouraging me to spin it up. In the end I was buying 15k and 20k worth

    Then boooooom . It all turned to dust in a few weeks. I bought one stock at 96p and it collapsed to 4p almost overnight. I held onto everything, sold nothing, and was left with nothing . Lol

    You live and learn though, that’s why I’m portfolio light now with a smile on my face and huge profits to boot.

    After reading polys last post I might jump ship completely as well cone Monday. Damn I can’t decide tbh

    Good weekend all

  238. MrMiyagi

    bamster,
    Yes, I am with RBC. I haven’t tried other brokerages.
    I experience what you do as well, options entered with a limit price take long to execute, no 5 cent increases above a 1$ and no 1 cent increases below. Account totals are updated for stocks but always lag a few days for options (I use my home-made Excel tracking for taxes and totals).
    On the other hand, their prices are competitive and as our accounts are with them transferring money into margin accounts is same-day and painless. I also like the fact that you can transfer margin CDN$ to US$ within your account online with no hassles.
    That being said, my cousin works at TD Waterhouse, I might try out their platform. I’ve already decided against Questrade.
    Out of ten, I’d give it a seven.

  239. YesLetsDiscuss

    For the post 4pm options expirations thought:

    Gold continues to form the ascending triangle pattern that started during the afternoon. Its 1486.80 at the moment.

    Silver has gone up after close and is at 42.95 at the moment.

    No collapse.

  240. Natanarchist

    Mr.M, bamster.

    have you looked into Interactive brokers? I think Canadians can use them.

    rbc is excellent for moving money between canada/usa bank accounts.

  241. YesLetsDiscuss

    Clarktoid,

    Thats quite a story! It must have been such a thrilling and then heartbreaking experience, but now you are all the wiser for it.

    I got caught in a pump and dump just once at the beginning of my investing career. Lost something like 10$ of my portfolio then. Lesson learnt.

    Poly,

    Great job…you’ve certainly earned the vacation! Perhaps, when you come back, we will be exactly where we are at the moment, but with a nice dip in between

  242. blammo

    I would give the RBC platform a 5 out of 10. It is horrible. Laborious. Painful.

    TD is much better, even has some decent technical tools but I use TOS for that. But for me, BMO is the best (of the three).

  243. Gary

    Sure that one is easy. At C-wave tops the miners can stretch 40-60% above the 200 DMA. They currently sit at 12%. That’s a huge gain to go from 12% to 60% and don’t forget the moving average is rising.

    I don’t suffer from “now” disease. Just because something doesn’t do what I want it to do today doesn’t mean that it’s never going to do what I expect.

    At the C-wave top I’m looking for SLW to go to $60 or even $80.

    Why should I give that up just because it’s still consolidating recent gains right now?

  244. MrMiyagi

    Gary,
    I was figuring SLW around 60-62$, that is why I’ve kept all my calls and looking to add. 80$ sounds even better.

    blammo,
    I gave RBC a 7 because I haven’t tried anything else in comaprison. Maybe I’ll try a BMO platform as a test. Otherwise, it’s not a major hassle to stay with RBC, heck, it’s not even a minor hassle.

  245. Alex in Montana

    D Wave Silver Price

    For folks who need a guideline, check the 200 day moving average, now $26.59 and rising 10 to 15 cents a day. In silver bear markets that level was hit every time since 1973.

    Per Gary, don’t overstay your welcome.

  246. Yash

    gary – when you say miners are at 12% above 200dma are you talking of individual miner or in general. gdx is around 10% but sil/slw are at 35% above 200dma

  247. Eric S

    Hi Gary,

    I believe you mentioned in the past that at the top of the C-wave, you’ll see divergence between miners vs. metals, which is obviously happening now. You also mentioned that historically the C wave was broken into 2 legs but this one appears to be in 3 legs. How do we know that this is not the C-wave top that’s ending in the 2nd leg other than the fact that sentiment for gold has not reached extreme levels (but it probably has for silver?). If the reason is because And how do we know that the next cycle low in USD is not a yearly low?

    I’m not questioning your analysis just trying to understand the logic. Thanks in advance!

  248. Yash

    alex in montana – that is also tony c target for major wave 4 this year. $26 or so he says. so i guess everything is in sinc.

  249. Gary

    Yash,
    The HUI is 12% above the 200 DMA.

    Eric,
    Anything is possible but I don’t see gold or miners terribly stretched above the 200 DMA. I certainly don’t see a parabolic advance in gold yet, and I don’t think we have the final three year cycle low in for the dollar yet.

  250. Yash

    romeo – right that is more like gdx. but silver miners sil or slw individually are around 35% above 200dma and slw was above 50% at recent high. I am not questining gary that they will go more higher just making sure he meant hui or gdx when he said 12% .. this is same reason some think gold miners may run faster now at final c wave top.

  251. Wes

    Poly,

    I’m totally in awe of your track record.

    And, it couldn’t have belonged to a nicer guy.

    Congratulations.

  252. Clarkatroid

    Ok many thanks,

    at present obviously that’s not happening. Would it not be more profitable to weight more AGQ until we see signs that the miners start acting more in line with that expectation?

  253. Gary

    Well by the time “they start acting better” a big chunk of the move will already be gone.

    This is why it’s so hard to buy bottoms. Because the sector isn’t acting like it should. But those who can pony up and buy the dip make the big bucks.

  254. Wes

    I thought about the recent developments and the two obvious possible outcomes and how each outcome should effect me.

    The first outcome, and the one I expect to happen, is that Gary’s correct again and we are fast approaching a cycle top. In that case I want my bullish silver exposure to be smaller than it is now.

    The other outcome is that for the first time (to my knowledge) Gary’s cycles desert him and we don’t correct. Then I’m more or less in uncharted territory, and I want my bullish silver exposure to be smaller than it is now.

    Sometimes decisions are real easy.

  255. 86d4life

    Just getting caught up on the blog, been away, when this just ocurred to me. The Friday 52 week high rule. Essentially it says if a stock, equity, etf closes at or near it`s 52 week high, buy and then dump at the open Tuesday morning. A small percentage of the time your buy will not follow through, so dump at open on Monday.

    A few things;
    GLD just closed very near it`s 52 week high.

    AGQ just closed very near it`s 52 week high.

    Both are above their 52 week high in after hours.

    The timing seems to fit with our anticipated draw down.

  256. Gary

    Don’t forget that a $6 correction in silver would be about an 80 point correction in AGQ. Do you really want to load up on AGQ in front of a possible daily cycle correction and risk that kind of draw down? Even a $3 correction in silver would knock AGQ back 40 points.

  257. Clarkatroid

    Haha
    “Pony up buy the dip”

    I remember a few weeks ago just after the tsunami hit and you did just that and loaded more AGQ circa 195. I haven’t found the cahoonas to do it yet but going to try harder on the next opportunity .it’s nice to have the trend correcting amateur timing errors for sure

    Many thanks

  258. Clarkatroid

    Are you saying to expect the miners to correct less % than agq on a $3-6 drop? That’s not been the case recently has it?

    I.e. % wise the miners seem to have been dropping roughly the same as agq on the dips? I’ve not done the numbers but that’ seems to be the case at a glance

  259. Jayhawk

    Doing a little SLW analysis before the weekend. πŸ™‚

    A couple things…If that bear flag/mid point consolidation before a drop plays out, it would mean around a 10% drop in SLW. It would hit around 37-38 which is near a MA that has supported SLW drops.

    125 EMA

    That’s also around the area we stopped in March. A lot of people would be freaking out around that point.

    SLW did 70% the final month and a half of last Fall’s cycle. So 70% on top of 38 equals a final price of mid 60’s.

    SLW vs. SLV…The price is on par for the first time since last summer.

    SLV/SLW

    No idea if that means SLW will shoot like Nov/Dev last year or if they stay on par. We know what TZ thinks.

    AGQ vs. SLW since Jan. SLW up 35% vs. 125% ish for AGQ. Wow.

    No idea if anyone gives a rats behind, but I’m trying to get my game plan in place.

  260. Natanarchist

    Alex in Montanna…when are you going to Banff again? I might be there at the end of this month but will definitely be there last week of June. Where in Montana do you live?

  261. Rob L.

    MrMiyagi,

    I did some research on Interactive Brokers in Canada, and if I am not mistaken, one has to fill out some papers that I did not want to fill out. Do your own DD, but please read the fine print with IB.

  262. CMT

    So I started trimming last Friday and this Monday. Went from 100% invested (and about 1/2 of that in AGQ) down to 55% invested with about 1/4 AGQ.

    I came kind of late to the party (only been a sub for about 5-6 weeks) and wanted to maximize my ability to buy at the bottom if/when it dips – if not, I took some profit – I have little emotional problem doing so (I hope).

    As this week went on, I started second guessing myself a bit. Asking if this Gary guy really knows what he is talking about.

    If you’re a sub, go back and read Gary’s January updates. Remarkable how consistent and correct he has been. Makes me a lot more comfortable.

    Kudos Gary, even if this doesn’t turn out like you have estimated, you’ve clearly been having a good run! And I am a very satisfied customer.

    (had to delete and edit, too many typos)

  263. GottaHaveIt

    Rick 4779,

    Thanks for giving me the date of the last C Wave ending on March 17, 2008.

    I just took a look at the chart and thought I’d post some numbers for the newbies like me who are not up on all this stuff.

    Silver was $14.93 per ounce at the beginning of January 2008. By March 17 (top of the C-Wave) it was $20.92 (using London Fix).

    You then had two days to get out without too much damage … on March 18 silver dropped to $20.38 and on March 19 it was down to $19.88.

    Then look out!

    On March 20 the London fix for silver dropped to $17.53!

    So Gary’s not kidding … you don’t want to stay too late at the party at the top of a C-Wave!

    I’m standing by, waiting to bolt for the door the moment I get the “SELL!” signal.

  264. Jayhawk

    PVM-

    I like the liquidity of SLV options and perhaps some SLW options too.

    AGQ, yes. Will be doing this as well.

    That is one insane, straight to the moon looking chart on AGQ. Amazing.

    Look at since last summer…TZ’s theory is coming true. SLV has outperformed SLW since last summer.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/Jayhawk1991/folders/Jing/media/8d6ee801-a170-44c4-950a-cbb360691691

    AGQ has done 425%. Makes wasting time researching all these miners looks worthless in hindsight.

    The guy who posted here about having a moral issue with ETFs using silver derivatives (as well as counter party risk) had some good points. I too had thought about those issues. Also, I’m thinking I don’t want to be trapped 100% long something like AGQ on a panic sell off.

  265. Yash

    i think it closed 43.05 after hours. Now one gap up and 43.73 number is not far. I have see order at 300!!! then 40 dollar drop is welcomed.

  266. fubsy_cooter

    Congrats Poly!!

    That’s an inspiring return. I suspect I will be alittle more risk tolerant as we near the bottom of the D-Wave having now been intimately invloved in the entire cycle from D-Wave bottom to C-Wave nearing its top.

    I’d love to read other people’s returns for the move since August. For me, its been a little more modest, but quitte pleasing nonetheless. I ahve never had a leveraged position, but rather fluctuated btween 50 and 95% invested in the pms. SLV and SIL have jockeyed for my largest holdings throughout, with Agq playing a peripheral position at appx 8 to 10% of my portfolio.

    My gains since August are at 70%.
    My goal on an annual basis is to return 30%, so I feel pretty good about those numbers for the year.

    Anyway, I’m sharing because I’d like to hear how others fared, as well. Then we can all compare notes after the C-Wave finale and learn from each other’s tactics, mistakes and victories.

    Thanks Gary for a great ride, thus far!!

    f

  267. Ryan

    Jayhawk,

    Thanks for posting the charts. I got out of all my miners today and still trying to decide what I want to buy back. I know how Gary hasn’t changed his views. I’m leaning on just focusing on AGQ/HZU. What are your thoughts?

  268. viking

    The problem with AGQ is ETF slippage. Miners can be held through corrections. AGQ is short term ONLY.

    AGQ may be fine for the rest of the C-wave, but if you get caught in it during the D wave, you will be much worse than holding miners through the downdraft.

    Trust me. I’m an SKF survivor.

  269. Rob L.

    MrMiyagi,

    I can’t think of what they wanted me to sign off the top of my head, and I’m at work. Maybe I overreacted at the time I saw the paperwork, but I was surprised.

  270. DG

    The reason “Now” matters is because statistically Relative Strength is relevant. Every study has shown that something that is acting poorly tends to continue to act poorly. Generally it is weak for a reason and that reason just doesn’t go away. It certainly can be that the reason is temporary (a temporary external condition, just consolidating recent gains, etc.) but dismiss unusual behavior at your peril. I actually use behavior of sectors to call macro trends. For example, if oil stocks are diverging from the commodity for a long enough time it means oil itself is going to tank. Maybe the oil stocks are just “consolidating” and maybe not. Fair enough that telling when it matters and when it doesn’t is a bit of an art, but what is happening “now” definitely has bearing on what will happen “later” IF you read the tea leaves correctly. Price alone doesn’t matter, but peaking under the hood coupled with price sure does.

  271. MrMiyagi

    Rob,
    In the end, I will most likely stay with RBC. Their rates are the same as others, linked with our bank accounts, fast resolution to any issues and familiarity are good enough reasons for me.
    The slowness of option filling is something that I have to live with and as for research, their charts are good enough although I only use them intra-day.
    BMO, mind you, is offering 150 free trades and 150$ off for new customers. I’m just not a big fan of BMO, I don’t know why.

  272. GottaHaveIt

    Viking,

    I agree that AGQ is a risky in a D Wave … I’m heavily into AGQ for the final run of the C-Wave but I will get totally out of it when Gary rings the bell to sell.

    However, if you look at Jay’s chart, keep in mind that includes AGQ’s performance before, during and after the intermediate cycle bottom in January.

    I keep hearing that AGQ should be used for short-term holds only (which is what I am doing) … but if you look at the chart it sure looks like a guy who bought AGQ last summer and did nothing but hold on through all the ups AND downs would have done just fine.

  273. CMT

    Viking, it’s not that a guy holding AGQ wouldn’t have done fine. It’s that because of the decay, each drawdown hits you hard (because of the 2x), but each increase doesn’t get you as high. Pretend you have $100 ;move it down and up by 5% each way, 10 times. See what happens? That’s decay.

    It only look “fine” because the price of silver has been incredible.

  274. DG

    CMT: Actually Gary has said that the rebalancing actually works in your favor when silver is rising sharply. That is, if silver rallies 100 units AGQ rallies 205 units not just 200. The decay only costs extra on the downside. At least this is what he has said. I have not researched it myself.

  275. Brad

    I have been on Turd Ferguson’s web site (www.tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com) and may are they bullish over there. Turd is so pumped up he is tooting his horn and inviting readers to post where they think Ag will close at the end of the week (Thursday since markets are closed Friday). Almost all think Ag will be higher. It is as Gary has stated – no one thinks Ag is going to correct even with it as stretched as it is from the mean. I bailed on my SLW. It closed the week in the lower half of the trading range on heavy volume. That is generally a sign of more weakness to come. Some of the other miners look the same. I decided to roll the dice with some of my profits from SLW and AGQ and bought ZSL this afternoon during the final minutes of trading and didnt get the low for the day but did get close.

  276. Ryan

    The daily rebalancing of the 2x ETF’s work in your favour when it’s on the right side of the trend. If that’s the case then yes it will be more than 2x. It’s when it’s moving along sideways and going up and down that’s when the decay will get you.

  277. Le Fou

    Stick with it, Elaine!

    We’re all doing the best that we can. I wonder how many people in the good ole USA can say that they’re up %100. Some of them would sell their mother for that kind of gain.

    Best,
    Le Fou

  278. Mission

    Gary and others, a few observations that I would like to hear thoughts/comments on:

    1. Transports and industrials broke to marginal new highs before pulling back below the previous high. Important? (They are now testing that line again).
    2. Apple looks to have completed a 1,2,3 reversal and is resting on the most recent lows. If it breaks lower will this drag the market lower?
    3. The A/D line is showing very bullish progression. How important is this reading?
    4. S&P looks to be possibly forming an inverted H&S pattern. Thoughts?

    Thanks in advance to anyone that enlightens, criticizes and adds.

  279. bamster

    Gary,

    Is it possible that we are already in a c wave?
    I know that anything is possible, but I think we are close to crunch time. I think your report this week is critical. I am under invested since the end of last week, and I feel if we don’t get it right, at least I would have missed the train.

  280. New York

    Bam,

    Gary has addressed this in the reports. He is expecting the dollar 3 year cycle low to coincide with the final blow. That hasn’t happened yet.

  281. Bob loves Hawaii

    Regarding AGQ and the D wave; I will specify a dollar amount of AGQ puts to purchase.

    I will select a strike half way between the 200 EMA and the price AGQ hits the day Gary blows the whistle.

    I will manage my risk, as follows;

    5% of portfolio, 50% stop loss; until it is in the money; and July or August strike (TBD for when the whistle blows).

    Then I am going to be in Maui for most of July and it will be my only open position. My only concern will be the concentration of rum to Mai Tai ratio.

  282. Vonda

    Elaine, I was going for 20% gains. Like LeFou said, 100% is AMAZING!!! (Would I sell my mother? Hmmmm…)

    I consider that I got really lucky and was willing to take on some hefty risk at times. I can’t wait until those days are over. Then, or at any point, I would be thrilled with 100% . . . or 70% . . . or 20%.

    Good weekend, Everyone!

    I’ll be tuning in Sunday at 3:00 (PST) for “As the Silver Turns”

  283. Gary

    Bam,
    Gold has been in a C-wave since $860 in April of 09.

    We’ve already made a small fortune does it really make any difference at this point whether we time the end perfectly.

    I have to ask how can you be underinvested? All I did was take down 15% of my AGQ position in preparation for converting to SLV calls.

    If you did something different then you must have had some reason for modifying what I was doing.

  284. W

    Bob loves Hawaii
    Thanks for the heads up. If you don’t mine, I will be trying to join you in that trading methodology. Been getting some practice with zsl lately. The first round trip was good for 62% in less than two weeks. Not too sure about the second attempt…but it’s still early. Appreicate the tips.

  285. Yash

    mision – every bull blog on spx is banking on same I H&S …. but since march 2009 low many such I H&S has worked so may be this one will work too. That measures 1430 on spx. That is also same area where spx topped before breakdown started in 2008 so sure that area seems to be right. I know this blog is not about spx at all and no one cares about it. but if dollar is continue going down so that gold/silver tops C wave then why not spx also goes to 1430. btw gdx ngut are negative on ytd and spx , gld are arond same. some simple equity funds in energy and healthcare sectors are up 15-20% ytd. of course silver beats everything hands down but apart from silver (metal) everyhing elese in PM sector is not that great. i know gary will say wait for final c wave blow off but sometimes I feel we could not got 15% from regular equity funds by now and then can convert into gdx as that is not done anything ytd.

  286. Yash

    i also think if you see early part of PM bull since 2000-2001 there were not many options to invest in actual metal other than buying physical… gld was lunached in 2003-04 .. silver etf much later. So my guess is big money used to be in miners those days to get liverage over metal plus if you can’t buy physical. now with so many etf there may be shift towards metals and so miners are not getting that much attention.

    I haven’t done any reasrech about how much actual dolllars flowing in miner those days vs now etc so this may be totally wrong.

  287. bamster

    Thanks new York. Gary , first thing I want to say is the amount of funds I have available to invest is less than 6 figures. I am trying to preserve the gains I have made. Your remarks the last week have been to be cautious. That is what I am trying to do. I reduced my position and am waiting for the bounce in the dollar so I can go back to being fully invested. I have never used margin since the beginning of the year and I don’t plan to. What I am asking is maybe there won’t be a bounce in the dollar and it heads straight down. If that would be the case, I would get fully invested come Monday.

  288. Gary

    Bam,
    Are you asking me if I think the dollar cycle will all of a sudden quit working?

    It never has before so I don’t know why it would all of a sudden stop now, especially with sentiment almost as bearish as at the 08 three year cycle low.

  289. Slumdog

    IMO, the silver reversal will start when gold reaches 1530-50.

    This is about a week away.

    IMO, it won’t matter what price silver will be at. Gold will have stretched 200-240 points above the January low.

  290. San Diego Jack

    Gary,
    I got out of my silver miner options, because of the divergence. Now have dry powder for the upcoming dip.
    Still holding GLD and gold stocks.
    Think I did good, and hope I wasn’t panicking…

  291. Yash

    just reviewed tony c usd chart .. looks like final low is around 68.24 as per his oew count which is marginal lower than oct 08 low and I believe gary is expecting similar result.
    in immediate term bounce may be from 74.25 which is just few cents but i am not certain on that as i could not resolve his very short term count.

  292. Matthew

    Well, if you go back to my earlier post looks like I was dead on about taking a shot at 43 at the close…I actually really do hope we see a massive pull back, one that makes over leveraged people poop there pants…Anyone know anything interesting about the possible comex default and silver.. besides what butler says ?

  293. bamster

    Fair enough Gary, I guess I’m not as patient as you. This is a good sign. it means we are going to get the bounce very soon. My impatience and quite a few bloggers selling their miners means the dollar bounce is almost here. Good luck.

  294. Natanarchist

    Yash;

    Good points about the miners. I too think if their was no GLD, miners would be higher. Perhaps they will catch a bid after/during earnings releases through the last part of the C wave blow off. I have to believe some of the good miners will have healthy profits when they report selling their Gold at $1400+. But who knows for sure.

  295. Beksachi

    Folks,

    A lot of great comments on what to possibly buy during next cycle low.

    I did not realize HUI is only 12% above 200 DMA- great insight.

    Just to summarize:

    – Hence, are we saying that GDXJ/GDX may be possibly a better play in the cycle low than SIL/SLW?

    – EXK keeps coming up so I will look into that.

    – Definitely convinced me to dump my AGQ during upcoming C-wave top due to decay risks (originally I was planning to hold a tiny amount for long long term)

    – ALSO fyi, I plan to buy some CEF as their premiums are < 1 % right now – this is simply to reduce volatility and meets my return needs. (This from someone who brought PSLV and was not too happy when its value went down on silver up days due to ridiculous premiums weeks ago)

  296. Yash

    at 3 yr dollar low gary has suggested that one can go long on dollar by buying uup. it may be similar to short euro although its not exactly same. there are two double short euro options (i don’t think there is double long dollar)

    euo volume 752k
    drr volume 5518

    uup volume 2,900,371

    anybody got experince with double short euro options above like euo

    seems to be there should be close to 20-25% usd rally at least from 3 yr cycle low. seems right?

    i still have not figured out if silver is going to come from 50 to 26 why zsl double short silver is good but gary keeps insisting about it and i am afraid to go against him! so i am trying above uup and euo options.

  297. flaunt

    Gary,

    Having taken the advice to slow down to 120 mph, I have to say I’m a little surprised that you aren’t just telling people to sit tight. Several of your posts from the last week or so repeatedly said that you’re going to try to keep everyone aboard during the c-wave finale because we’ll want to jump off early due to unbelievable price increases. So while I didn’t “jump off,” I feel like maybe I should have just sat tight.

    Did I miss something?

    Thanks.

  298. Gary

    Too many people are leveraging up. The point of the post was and is to get these people to consider what they will do if silver corrects even 3-6 dollars. For someone that is leveraged 5-10 times or more they will get blown out of the water.

    If you follow my portfolio then you will have only reduced 15% in AGQ in preparation to converting those funds into SLV options.

    People you are reading things into my posts and reports that I’m not saying. Nowhere did I tell anyone to go to cash. I didn’t go to cash in my portfolio. I barely even reduced my exposure.

  299. York

    I have something have to spit out:
    what is going on with FSAGX? HUI closed almost flat, but FSAGX dropped almost 4%????!

    I checked its top ten holdings, mostly flat or even positive. Is FSAGX ripping off customer?

  300. ...at ease

    Gary, I personally moved to cash as I cannot get internet access consistantly over the next 5 weeks. Preserving profits. I have 10% in for GLD and SLV options deep in the money remaining. I am waiting on the USD,STOCKS/GOLD reverse plan to reenter. Best I can do under my circumstances. With the shorter trading week (Friday close) will that affect the sentiment/timing for gold market?

  301. San Diego Jack

    Gary,
    I had too many options in Silver Miners, so I took profit on some, and a loss on another, that way I can more align my portfolio to SMT on a correction.
    I still have exposure to gold & silver…

  302. Wav_ridah

    York,
    I feel your pain. But they did just give a short-term capital gain of 1.7450 per share and long-term capital gain of 0.2840 per share, declared on 04/15/2011.

  303. ...at ease

    York, I held FSAGX last year, and did well on the last Fall A wave (which I was ignorant of at the time). But when I got to know more about the market and saw they are miners I didn’t go for it this time around. I only traded miners this past year and found them inconsistant with the gains of the metals. I think they might run more with stocks. Just what little I know from experience.

  304. Wav_ridah

    I don’t know mutual funds very well, so I’m not sure if that would effect the price. But you’re right down 3.93%. I just don’t see how.

  305. York

    @Wav_ridah

    I checked the transaction history it indeed has an dividend item. It breaks even. Thanks very much for the info!

  306. York

    @at ease
    FSAGX is the only fund in my retirement plan offered by the employer. Have to stick with it. Just unload all of them after 1 month to avoid short-term transaction fee, and wait for the next entry.

    and yes, these miners did not perform well, hopefully they run better next round.

  307. Silverhound

    SB
    The reason I asked about SVM is I’m not familiar with all of your US stocks yet. Here is a chart now I have the price bar for friday in my data. This is purely for discussion of course.

    Price looks to be forming a rising wedge at the moment. I’ve used the candle bodies for this one. It’s testing the lower trendline. These “usually” break down and if it does, look for a back test of the broken trendline then a test of the bottom of the black channel. It does look a little early in the pattern to be breaking down however price is king as we all know. If we happen to hold in the wedge and price breaks to the upside the blue channel comes into play. You would expect the MACD would have to break through resistance for confirmation of a move up.

    I don’t blame you for lightening up.

    SVM

    Just my thoughts. Would anybody else like to share an opinion?

    Cheers
    Darren

  308. ...at ease

    York,
    Can you wait until the top of C wave to unload the fund,you should have some gains by then. Check out the one Canadian fund. They have metals in there also. FICDX. Check the performance on that one.

  309. Wav_ridah

    York,
    Fidelity Global Commodity Stock (FFGCX) is another Fidelity Fund to look at. I allocated about 10% of my 403B to it and rest is in Select Gold.

  310. Slumdog

    SkepticSquirrel said…

    Silver Eagle premiums are outrageous now. $4-$5.5/oz. !

    This is funny. That’s what some of us paid for silver 11 years ago! And then, it was a plentiful as rain in the street gutters during a downpour.

    Truly disconcertingly funny.

  311. Gary

    I think they are ready to run too. I just think gold probably has one more dip when the dollar bounces out of it’s next cycle low before the final leg up begins.

    Cycles analysis has been pretty darn dependable so I think I will stick with it for now.

  312. Shalom Bernanke

    Thanks for the input, Silverhound.

    My sales yesterday have more to do with miners than my thought on metals. I still want to be long and am ready to enter in the next several days, but no way miners should be down 2% (and at the low of the day) like SVM, when silver up many days in a row and making news 30+ yr highs each time.

    I’m flexible and will get long as soon as I see miners and metal act in tandem. I might even buy some miners back instead of the metal, but they’ll have to give me a reason like starting to outperform the metal. Either miners are going higher, or silver is coming down in the near future, and I have a plan for both possibilities.

    One big adjustment I should mention is that I am now forced to shorten the time frame of my trades. Instead of weekly charts, I’ll be using daily only (with daily ATR for stops). This means I will have larger positions with tighter stops for the same amount of total portfolio risk. It also means I will hold winners for a much shorter period, and exit when new holdings are overbought on the daily chart. In short, my trading for the remainder of the C-wave will now be much more active than the buy and hold of the last few months.

    Let’s see what happens.

  313. bamster

    SB,

    Good luck with your trades. I think we really have to be on our toes from now on. I am really not happy with the way I’ve handled my trades the last month or so. I feel I’ve been too cautious which is really not my style. I’ve beaten myself up mentally the last couple of days. I am my harshest critic. I am hoping this will make me more focused going forward.

  314. Shalom Bernanke

    Yes, I cut most of NUGT as well. I’m a fan of the concept, but not yet the performance. πŸ™‚

    Being NUGT would greatly reduce the risk of an event like what happened to CDE and PAAS this week, yet even NUGT is dragging along.

    If I should get a signal to get long again, I will likely pick up NUGT as well (I did make decent money on it), but since my position sizes will be larger with my shorter hold times, it does not have enough volume to let me “load up”.

  315. Gary

    Bam,
    I learned a long time ago not to worry about missed trades especially ones were I left some money on the table. Picking tops is virtually impossible in real time.

    Beating yourself up because you couldn’t see the future is a complete waste of energy.

    I exited my AGQ position into strength. That’s the best one can do. Now I’ll just wait for the cycle low to put that capital back to work.

    Would I like to have caught all the rally before exiting? Sure but in real time that’s impossible.

    I will probably get out too early at the top of the C-wave also.

    Will I care? Hell no. We’ve made a small fortune off this C-wave (some have made big fortunes). Does it really matter if we don’t get the last 5%? Of course not.

  316. bamster

    Thanks for the wise words Gary, appreciate it. I’m doing my taxes(trades for year 2010) as I speak to you. I am noticing the turn around as I go month to month and deeper into the year, slowly turning loses into gains. No matter what happens going forward, for me Gary, I can tell you I am much better off today than I was 9 months ago, and I have you to thank for that.

  317. wmp

    Thanks SB for the NUGT response.

    Gary: I have a question about the three year dollar low. Looking at the 2008 monthly charts the dollar hit it’s low (70.69) in March then consolidated for four months before breaking out above 74.31 in August. What’s interesting is if you corrolate that pattern to the parabola you’ve talked about in the coal stocks (btu,anr,cnx,aci), the coal stocks continued to rise throughout the dollar consolidation period ( at least a double for all during that four months) before the HUGE selloff in July.

    Do you think we’ll just touch the past low or drop well below it and what’s the difference now that would drive a more violent bounce out of the low?

    BTW, for those of you that haven’t looked at those charts, should. They are GREAT examples about the parbolic action Gary’s been talking about (both upside and downside).

    Thanks Gary.

  318. marinho

    wav_ridah,
    great charts and lots of details. This guy Rambus must be good at what he does. The only thing his po 44 slv, 45 silver, may be reached next week and then we may fall back or does he have an extension?
    The site goldtent seems a very good place to start research if you are a novice investor. Lots of links to gold sites. I will spend some time there. It could all play out to slv 44 before we get our correction

  319. Gary

    usually in bear markets the break will be marginal followed by another strong rally. I’m expecting maybe 70 or 69 on the dollar index and then another year long rally.

    The really damaging legs come when the asset tops in an extreme left translated manner and then has a long time to grind lower.

    The repeated deflationary spikes and bouts of currency debasement by other countries during this three year cycle kept the dollar index elevated even though in terms of real money (gold) the dollar has been destroyed.

    I think this next cycle will unfold in a more aggressive left translated manner as the rest of the world is starting to recognize and do something about their inflation problem while the US just continues to deny it exists.

  320. marinho

    wav_ridah,
    i just checked the GLD chart and his po is 154-155 more or less 7-10 % higher like silver to 45. is this chart for the short time frame and then what?
    Does he have longer time frames? he seems to be very very good.

  321. marinho

    wow,
    i visited the goldtent site and there is an entire section dedicated to rambus. this guy is real good with the charts. I was reading the caption in his GLD chart and he says that we have made a breakout and a retest at GLD 141 and that we are now in the fourth day of a new impulse up. Gary, could you mention in your weekend report about this possibility that we have a new cycle up and we are very young in it. i believe you would count day 3 of a new cycle if new cycle.

  322. guy

    Gary,

    if the next 3 year dollar cycle is ELT and really damaging, this would implicate an exponential gold/silver Cwave, even stronger than what we have now?

  323. marinho

    HUI rambus chart at goldtent shows that we have room to get to 650 -700 before the next breathing room and it also just backtested the breakout. I don’t know if there is any room for the downside in the bullish cause here. I am going to try to be very alert on monday, but i know things change very fast. Overall Gary’s advice of being old turkey has paid off for the pst year, so i will stay with it.

  324. marinho

    Gary,
    i see the premium website has crashed. When you put up the new weekend report do you mind to comment on the possibility of a new gold cycle 3 days young and on the chance this dollar cycle will stretch longer to get close to 72?
    thanks

  325. Kevin

    Hey, option people. Are you all gonna be buying SLW calls, or SLV calls? Gary’s made a good case for expecting SLW to pick up the pace I see. I’ve been learning by looking at SLV, but I’d like to know what you plan to do. Thanks.

  326. Kevin

    Gary,

    Sorry about the weekend report! Bummer.

    I wanted to thank you for what you shared with Bamster. I’m new and still have a small nest egg. I got on this train late, with an average buy price of $241 in AGQ. I got spooked when you deleveraged a bit the other day, and I sold my stuff in 2 lots…

    I just haven’t gotten comfortable with loosing any more of my hard-earned money as I have done so often the last few years before the great fortune of my Google search that led me here. I left a good bit more profit on the table at this point. I was beating myself up the same as Bamster. Your answer really helped. I guess it’s good to be learning these hard lessons all at once, maybe?

    I’m excited about your ability to guide us sheep through the narrow gate of profit in the PM world… Lots of analogies to being a shepherd for you, I won’t share any more though for fear of hurting people’s feelings!

  327. New York

    Gary,

    WordPress usually creates an ‘auto draft’ if the post. If it doesn’t appear in your admin perhaps your programmer can check the database.

  328. chrisb

    Kevin… I am sticking with SLV options for the most part, but I will pick up a small percentage of SLW options, just to see what they do. SLW has been unpredictable as of late, and I don’t understand why. If someone else understands what is going on with SLW, I would appreciate hearing it. SLV has been very predictabe, in my opinion.

  329. Steven

    TRond,

    According to your chart comparison to 2006 & 2008 when would the top occur here? It seems like this upcoming Mon or Tues, no?

  330. Redwine

    Francus…?

    Just trying to help. I’m thinking maybe Gary doesn’t realize he can save a draft and not have to toss his computer in the pool if the website eats it.

  331. San Diego Jack

    Gary,
    Just checked SMTP & saw your message on the weekend report. Bummer!
    Although, your last two postings, with the exhaustive chart explanations were excellent. Found them to be thorough, instructive and enlightening.
    (yes, the lightbulb went on)

  332. Steven

    Gary,

    Do you expect that if gold tags $1500 it will actually go a little beyond that number to draw in retail buyers so the big boys can sell or do you think it will just be too much resistance at such a big number (at least ont he first try which would mean it would not break through before we go into the daily cycle low)?

  333. YesLetsDiscuss

    Gary,

    Sorry to hear about the lost report. Perhaps the new one will be better.

    There seems to be a need for some fundamental change to the website and hosting infrastructure.

  334. YesLetsDiscuss

    As so many have commented here, I am completely out of miner stocks (except couple micros). They have very consistently underperformed for the past year. With the magnified drop in the miners last week compared to metals, everyone seems to have realized and dropped them.

    Perhaps, exhaustion has been reached and miners will soon start performing as well as, if not better than the metals. However, I am planning to just stick to and add metal futures if we get this cycle low. If not, I loaded up on Thu and Fri with a tight stop.

    At some point in the future, the miners will significantly outperform the metals as the rotation from metal to miners starts. First to the seniors and then to the juniors. My guess is in the next C wave.

  335. BlueHawaiiFan2025

    Sorry to hear about the report being deleted. I should be fine. You are probably telling us to sit tight and wait for the correction. I can see the miners have been lagging badly. At least the ones that I own are lagging. Poly if you are reading this. Have fun, enjoy life and come back safely. Thank you for the inspiration. = )

  336. Rob L.

    chrisb,

    Read Gary’s comment at April 15, 2011 2:21 PM.

    I too was questioning SLW’s lethargy over the past few weeks – I have a good-sized chunk of it.

    I will hold until the end of this C-wave.

  337. Gary

    The webmaster was able to recover the report.

    I do save the drafts as I go for the express purpose of not losing a report but for some reason today it still deleted the saved draft.

  338. ...at ease

    I hate sitting out of this market right now. I guess just another week, I can manage sitting to see what happens. I asked prior if you thought the market closed on Friday, might speed up sentiment, do you think or not affect it at all?

  339. Otis

    Gary,

    Just finished my taxes and was comparing my returns pre-SMT and post (including early 2011). Like another member posted, it’s quite a contrast! Nice reminder for myself that I’m no market wizard. It really is all thanks to you. So, thank you very much! Your generosity in sharing your strategies and insights is really appreciated.

  340. Michelle

    gary or anyone

    a friend has 1000 dollars to put in the market. so this far along in the game i was thinking if they put the money in SIL would that be a better play since it has not jumped yet. or is that to risky and agq be better at the next cycle

  341. GottaHaveIt

    Gary,

    Awesome report!

    As a fairly new subscriber, I especially liked you re-posting your chart of the 3 legs of the C-Wave because I was wondering about that.

    I know that gold leads the way, but I have trouble translating the gold price numbers into the equivalents on the silver price.

    Could you please post a silver chart or just give us the numbers for the silver prices that would approximately correspond to the numbers on that last gold chart showing the A,B,C,D waves?

    Thanks!

  342. Wav_ridah

    Marinho,
    Rambus is a TA champ. Some of older charts from early in the showed how a lot of this was going to play out. Gold tent removed those charts unfortunately. Bill downey at Goldtrends.com is another good chart guy I follow.

  343. JohnsMotivation

    Gotta, he doesn’t do cycles for silver. Gold is the driver for PMs. Don’t forget to do your homework and read back 5-15 weeks of reports to catch up. What part of GS do you work for?

  344. Brad

    From Zerohedge.com

    A Golden Tipping Point: University of Texas Takes Delivery Of $1 Billion In Physical Gold
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/16/2011 19:59 -0400

    Black Swan Central Banks Kyle Bass Precious Metals Reality

    Tipping points are funny: for years, decades, even centuries, the conditions for an event to occur may be ripe yet nothing happens. Then, in an instant, a shift occurs, whether its is due a change in conventional wisdom, due to an exogenous event or due to something completely inexplicable. That event, colloquially called a black swan in recent years, changes the prevalent perception of reality in a moment. This past week, we were seeing the effect of a tipping point in process, with gold prices rising to new all time highs day after day, and the price of silver literally moving in a parabolic fashion. What was missing was the cause. We now know what it is: per Bloomberg: “The University of Texas Investment Management Co., the second-largest U.S. academic endowment, took delivery of almost $1 billion in gold bullion and is storing the bars in a New York vault, according to the fund’s board.” And so, the game theory of a nearly 100 year old system of monetary exchange has seen its first defector, but most certainly not last. With an entity as large as the University of Texas calling the bluff of the Comex, the Chairman, and fiat in general in roughly that order, virtually every other asset manager is now sure to follow, considering there is not nearly enough physical gold to satisfy all paper gold in existence by a factor of about 100x. The proverbial Nash equilibrium has just been broken.

    From Bloomberg:

    The fund, whose $19.9 billion in assets ranked it behind Harvard University’s endowment as of August, according to the National Association of College and University Business Officers, added about $500 million in gold investments to an existing stake last year, said Bruce Zimmerman, the endowment’s chief executive officer. The holdings are worth about $987 million, based on yesterday’s closing price of $1,486 an ounce for Comex futures.

    Years from now, when historians attempt to define who may have started it all, one name may emerge…

    The decision to turn the fund’s investment into gold bars was influenced by Kyle Bass, a Dallas hedge fund manager and member of the endowment’s board, Zimmerman said at its annual meeting on April 14. Bass made $500 million on the U.S. subprime-mortgage collapse.

    “Central banks are printing more money than they ever have, so what’s the value of money in terms of purchases of goods and services,” Bass said yesterday in a telephone interview. “I look at gold as just another currency that they can’t print any more of.”

    In summary – the fiat tide is now going out. And among those who will first be observed swimming naked are the very same people whose fate has been so very intrinsically linked to the perpetuation of a flawed regime (and who coined this very saying). In the meantime, hold on to your hats: should a scramble for delivery ensue, the recent parabolic move in various precious metals will seem like a dress rehearsal for what is about to transpire.

    The only open question is who was the broker with enough gold to deliver to the UofT. We hope to find out soon enough. We also hope that the UofT is smart enough, and that Kyle Bass advised it, that if they are getting “delivery” in a Comex vault in New York, the gold has likely already been leased out at least several times to various entities demanding paper allocations…

  345. Vonda

    Brad, that is awesome!

    We’ve become so epistemologically accustomed to living in a world of derivatives that it’s difficult to image an entity taking delivery on $1 bil. Too tired tonight, but I’m going to try and do follow-up on this tomorrow. The implications for social/political and economic ways-of-being are delirious . . . and yet, somehow, obvious.

    Very cool. Thanks for posting!

    (anyone else have thoughts?)

  346. Vonda

    And if that pans out, we’re going to need to name a new wave: the Z wave?

    Cannot imagine the speed of that locomotive.
    Really, I cannot imagine.

    Could it be? Stranger things . . .

  347. mr victory

    train horn Most people prefer to fit their trucks with horns for the same reason that trains are fitted with horns: safety purposes. Because trucks are usually heavy than other vehicles, it is not a bad idea to fit your train with one instead of the of the normal horn in order to make sure that other road users are aware of any danger

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