The trigger is based on a pivot. Take a look at the chart again and you’ll see that it won’t need to be adjusted depending on what gold does on Monday.
I think I didnt quite make my point clear, so I will just rephrase it. I wasnt trying to say that NUGT could have ‘as much’ volume as SLV ( thats dreaming) 🙂
I meant to say the volume on SLV Increases about 5x this wk (from the 20 million avg daily in Jan and Feb, to the last couple of days being near 80 million) as the rush of buyers jumps in at the top.
So I was implying that maybe the volume on NUGT would increase 5x from its avg daily now, when the blow off top would arrive and you’d be looking to exit.
But Hotrod cancels that saying liquidity isnt an issue anyways 🙂
Thanks. Yes, I get that part, but if gold goes up another $20 before pulling back, then in a runaway move the $35 correction won’t make it back to that pivot?
That pivot is a correction based on Friday close (don’t want to put #’s because of premium content).
Silver report very strangely is quiet. Not much movement at all in any area despite the huge rise.
Gold report may be telling the story.
Commercials – Huge $13k more short contracts Large Specs – Immense $14K additional LONG contracts Small SPecs – $4k additional long and $4k additional short
Hmmmmmm. WHo are the “large specs” anyway?
Are the banks going short and also taking the long side of the trade in their “personal” accounts?
If it were not for the Commercial shorting, Gold would be going ballistic.
Gary, kudos on the last couple of posts, I like your latest plan and will happily follow you.
Had just been looking at the silver chart and worrying about its dizzying rise. My only thought about $50 as a trigger is that all kinds of people are probably watching for that level, so I might head for the door around $49.
In terms of the reallocation to gold, I notice that DGP is an ETN, while UGL for instance is an ETF. Though DGP is well established, have read that ETNs can be riskier vehicles. Anyone have any insight on this?
Lastly, Gary if you’re expecting HUI to massively outperform gold on this C-wave finale, will you be considering reallocating any of your money from DGP and/or SIL/SLW to some gold miners? If not, why not? If so, any thoughts on NUGT as seems like one that would be up your alley with the 2x GDX return.
If there is a 3-6 dollar correction on the price of silver will this also have any effect on the miners. They already took a heavy beating and I hope they don’t go further down!
One reoccurring theme I have noticed here, is so many people that insist on coming up with their own strategy that is going to beat a man that is at the top of his game.
Now I know from reading here we have a very wise group of people, but we now have a situation where silver has gone parabolic. Gary is once again trying to lead the horses to water, yet so many are stating their own better strategies.
Maybe these strategies will work out, but from the last run we had, so many people were saying they wished they had listened. A second chance is upon us, and I hope people take advantage.
I am not at all trying to take away from the great minds here. What I am saying is that you are listening to a man that has studied and prepared for this for many years. Take full advantage and give your own research a chance to catch up.
Just thinking with my fingers. Take it for what it is worth.
Niven, Why do you care where the miners go next week? Are you going to sell at the bottom of a correction even though you know that at the C-wave top the miners will be much much higher?
Perfect example. The miners took a big hit in March. If one sold into that pullback they missed the move to new highs that unfolded over the next three weeks.
Kitco had the spot market only up 7 cents today. I doubt we are going to see silver gap up $1.00.
More likely that big money will sell into the Fast Money recommendation. If there was ever a bell ringing at a short term top that was it on Thursday evening.
You know guys, Brian has it right (no offense to the Marine’s Mom & wife), I paid good money, okay, okay, it wasn’t much compared to other doofus guides who lead one astray, but I did, and I intend to follow Gary’s lead, since I have heard from other subs, over and over again, how they have profited from his guidance. Sure you can modify the plan to suit your risk tolerances, but you should stay the course. I am very aggressive with my money, wanting it to work as hard for me, as I worked to get it (boy, if that isn’t an Americanism, I don’t know what is) but I have reduced exposure in options, adjusted positions Gary’s profile and am waiting for a drop or slight correction to POUNCE and make a homerun. And it will all be based at Gary’s direction, calculations and prognistications. (Feel free to quote me, but give me credit)
If you’re saying that smart/big money will sell into the Fast Money recommendation then doesn’t it follow that silver will be up first for them to sell into or just at these levels but with increased volume?
Also, do you agree with Adami that we will have a $7-$8 day one day soon?
If a plan is to sell AGQ when silver hits $50 then I want to enter a GTC order for AGQ when silver hits $50. Where do you think AGQ will be when silver hits $50?
I thought I’d publish some data for the last 2 c-wave tops for gold, silver and miners. Note that their repective c-wave tops might differ by a day. I am showing the data for these 3 corresponding to the date for gold’s c-wave tops.
Gary, I’d love to get your thoughts as to how you’d play your hand if you were in my situation. Despite having never rode the PM bull in the past and against everyone’s repeated warnigs, I thought that I could get cute and actually trade around this thing. I liquidated my entire silver position this week, because I was convinced that we’d rollover and I wanted to sell into strength. Well, now I’m pissed that I gave up my strong hand and am questioning my move already. Someone made the point earlier, but I do think one needs to make their own mistakes to internalize these lessons. Anyways, now I’m very nervous about throwing everything back in at your trade trigger, just in case it turns into something biggger. How would you suggest scaling back in at this point or would just push the entire pile of chips back into the pot?
My 2 cents is to get back in now. I also tried to get cute and I lost a lot of money for a guy like me. The truth is you might not get a pullback, and this thing will keep going and you’ll never get back in.
Here’s the deal if you get in now you should make money in 6 weeks. The fact that your indecisive sounds like your still trying to be cute(Greedy).
I made the same mistake, and I really hope I never let it happen again. If you get a 30 point dip on Monday consider yourself very lucky to jump back in there.
I really doubt silver will gap up $10. Maybe if it was selling at $100 to $150, but not at $47. That is way too large of a gap. Adami would probably like to trigger a retail trader gap so he can sell his position into it but I really doubt it.
PST, As long as you continue to think like a trader you are going to continue to make these mistakes.
Listen to what you said. You are afraid to re-enter because you might not time it perfectly and you might have to hold through a draw down.
I can guarantee you won’t time it perfectly and that you will have to hold through a draw down. But I can tell you that the percentage gain from $46.70 to $50 is still 7%. In AGQ it’s going to be a little over 15%. You are going to make at least that much no matter what kind of draw down you have to hold through unless you think this is the top of the C-wave.
Are you really saying that you refuse to make 15% because you might have to weather a draw down first?
PST, Just watch for the day lows on prices and get back in as much as you can. I was totally out prior to Wed last week, I got back in with Gary’s recommendation on SLW Options along with GLD and AGQ and already back up over 15 to 20% in my accounts. I still have 25% more to get back in on this next drawdown, but if it doesn’t go down 25 – 35 points, I will put the rest in on DGP on day low prices. Just get back in!
Thanks Haggarty and Gary. I think this trade was driven more by fear of giving all my returns back than greed. Again, having never invested in precious metals, I didn’t think that we would see a ramp like last week until the final leg of the C-wave. My thinking was that I would rather forego any remainging profits in this daily cycle, rather than get caught in a drawdown, and then get reinvested for the last parabolic move higher. Seemed conservative at the time. Its just the explosiveness of the move last week caught me by surprise. I need to just resist the urge to try to time it again and get reinvested.
Not sure if you can see this one, it is a long term silver weekly with an upper trend line from a peak in 2002 (not sure if it was a C wave top) through 2004, 2006 and to now.
This channel can only be drawn on a log chart – the arithmetic doesn’t align.
What is interesting is that the C wave top in 2008 did not make it up to the trend line. Could this have been because of Bear Sterns?
If….we make it up to it on the weekly this time, we have some room – looks like around $60????
I was not able to figure out how to raise the Y axis on stock charts, it only maxes out at the price point high.
One thing is for sure, we are in the middle of an unprecedented move. It is obvious that at some point there likely will be some major draw down, but where is it going to come?
With the global buying pressure, it may not happen under normal fundamentals. In my opinion it is going to take a MAJOR, MAJOR global event to do it. I don’t think it will just roll over.
I’m just too young and inexperienced to be able to envision the possibilities here.
Good post Gary. I think $1,650 is too conservative, that less than 10% from this level. A 20% and more final daily has precedence and would not stretch us too far above the moving averages. That would be $1,800.
I know you like moving away fom Silver due to a great of a huge drawdown, but if Gold is going on a runaway, don’t you expect Silver to continue it’s recent correlation? Seem like getting caught in another 15% might just be a small price go pay to ride Silver to the top.
I was thinking the same thing as you, but if silver does have a very nasty correction and then begins to rise, what are the odds that it significantly exceeds that first high? A lot of risk for little reward?
The average leg up in gold is roughly 24%. This intermediate leg began at the Jan. bottom of $1307. A move to $1650 would equate to a 26% move. Right in line with history.
It’s probably wishful thinking to expect more than another 150 points in gold in only 5-6 weeks. It’s taken 9 weeks to go from $1400 to $1500.
I’m not trying to beat Gary at his own game. It’s more about risk profile. For instance, I don’t do options or margin trading. It’s late in the game and I’d rather err on the side of caution.
That is, if you can call getting leveraged into gold at a parabolic top “caution” 😉
150 is just 10% from here and 5 to 6 weeks is a long time. If that is the target, a runaway move is not needed to reach there. A runaway move will go much higher than that if it lasts that long.
Folks don’t forget that at the final top this is going to look like it’s going to go on forever. There will be countless reasons for why the dollar is going to 0 and gold and silver will just keep rising. Selling into those conditions will be the hardest thing we will do all year long. And if you don’t time it right (we won’t) the urge to get back in because you are missing some of the ride will be almost overwhelming. However those that do will get caught by the D-wave and if they are still heavily leveraged they will lose most if not all their gains.
We’re already starting to see signs that euphoria is beginning. At $1650 it’s going to be absolutely nuts.
Gary: Fantastic post on the “trade trigger”. Thanks. Wonderful analysis.
And I’m sure we’ll get that weakness next week, what with: options expiration on gold/silver, first notice day for taking delivery, a Fed meeting, and this over-extended rally.
Since many people seem to like to read their own meanings into my reports, let me be clear. Just because I expect gold to put in the next measured correction next week doesn’t mean one should sell positions. Many many people already got into trouble and missed last weeks big move for that very reason.
The trade trigger post is only for those that need to get back in. It in no way suggests someone that is already in do something foolish like exit.
Once the dollar hits a new 3-year low, it’ll be interesting to see how long it bases and what drives it upwards in a big multi-month bounce.
I doubt that it would base as long as it did back in the spring and summer of ’08. And, as for what will make it bounce this time, my guess is trouble in Spain shaking the Euro:
Is this okay? A 20% move or so would be more of the range to “reach for the sky.”
On this chart, the only way $1650 will look parabolic is if we make the run right now and don’t look back (no weekly close correction) – put in a solid -4 week strong climb.
This will coincide with a May 20th employment report – and another theory I have that USD locks in embedded this week, tanks until the report and then it’s all over…
Please don’t take this a second guessing the “expert.” I’m just trying to figure out all the angles and options.
I likely won’t be selling all my AGQ and SLV options and am trying to determine what % I stay in (lottery play, etc.) and at what strikes.
One can always jigger the charts to get whatever desired result they want. I use purely percentages. At the 06 top gold stretched 24% above the 200 DMA. At the 08 top it stretched roughly 29%. At the 09 peak it moved 25% above.
The difference in these three with today is that now the 200 DMA is already rising steeply. There was a bit of a lag during the other times which explains the extreme stretch.
If the moving average continues to rise at it’s current rate then gold will be stretched about 20-22% above the 200 DMA if it tags $1650 in the next 5-6 weeks.
At that point not only is it too late in the intermediate cycle to hang around any longer but it’s also too stretched above the mean and in jeopardy of the D-wave profit taking event at any point.
Folks resign yourselves now to the fact that you aren’t going to catch the exact top, that you are going to leave some money on the table, but that none of that makes any difference in the long run because we will more than make up for it by catching the A-wave.
So I’m not familiar with conditional trades/triggers. The closest trigger I can find in Fidelity is the CBOE gold index (.GOX). Is there a way to make the trigger based on GLD? If not, how would I calculate the trigger in GOX that would be equivalent to the GLD trigger Gary posted? Thanks for any help.
GARY, Thank you for the “game plan”. You have been just sooo accurate that I know the rest shall play out and we shall all be very happy.
ALEX, I appreciate your charts as I shall add to AG and EXK. The 3 months of miners consolidating from their large gains was a valid point. ( Handsome couple….)
EVERYONE, This site is addictive and I have been trying to keep up with it. Thank you all for such informative postings.
Gary, do you have a contingency plan for if the D wave takes you by surprise? Comes way earlier than anyone expected? I mean, anything is possible right?
I use Fidelity. If you’re in the conditional trade screen you have the option of choosing an Index OR a stock/ETF. There is a radio button for each. You probably have the Index one selected.
I hope everybody is enjoying their long, relaxing weekend.
Fine report, Gary. I mentioned I was looking at gold via DGP last week to buy into a pullback. This weekend I’ve also decided to put PHYS on the list as well, and although it is not leveraged, I should be comfortable putting the profits from the miners into it. I think Gary might be correct about the runaway move, so will take advantage and step into the $30 or so decline when it presents.
And I still like silver. It’s just more difficult to time an entry in a runaway market. I’m not counting on huge pullbacks, or at least, significant % pullbacks unless they only last a single day. I’ll be buying dips if they occur.
SB: Are you not worried that a “pullback” will turn into a mini-meltdown like 2006? It has had quite a ramp up and when the hot money decides to rush for the exit it may be a little like yelling “fire” in a crowded theater. At least, that’s my concern.
Also, in 2006 though silver was the place to be, gold actually outperformed in the final run up. Silver barely recaptured its high after the 17% down day.
Gary posted: “We’re already starting to see signs that euphoria is beginning. At $1650 it’s going to be absolutely nuts.”
Kids, go over to Kitco’s silver forum and see the crazyness unfolding as well to a lesser extent on the gold forum. Maybe browse down eBay alley and see if you can find silver for under 50$/oz.
This board here is where level headedness is prevailing.
Thanks for the article. I like reading the mainstream info for its spin.
All,
Does anyone remember “last time” in 2008, 2006, etc. during the big final rallies – with regards to the predictors of the “crashes?”
Everywhere you go now, everything you read is preparing you for a crash of epic proportions (Gary – you as well are nervous about it and trying – smartly – to skirt around it if it happens).
Well, isn’t the saying that if everyone expects it, it won’t happen (at lease the same way people expect)?
I remember in 2008 with Oil at 120, 130, 140 – Not many people were saying a crash was imminent or going to be of epic proportions, certainly not back below $100.
I’m just thinking out loud here. What should we make of this? Any statement such that “silver won’t crash” or “silver will just have a normal and healthy correction” makes one look naive, inexperienced or way too optimistic – not understanding market fundamentals.
So, is everyone going to be right this time? I have to believe the answer is yes, but the question is when.
Clarkatroid, I think the courage, confidence and strength it takes to climb the rocks speaks of the character necessary for Gary to advise us as he has. May the Lord keep him safe as he lives life to the full!
Nima, That’s what I expected to hear at a three year cycle low. As the dollar really starts to crash into the final low this end of the world talk will intensify. And of course this will only guarantee that the herd will get caught on the wrong side of the boat when that major bottom forms and the dollar rallies against all common sense and fundamentals.
There will be talk of manipulation, especially in the precious metal markets which are going to take a serious hit as the D-wave unfolds.
But of course this will have nothing at all to do with manipulation, it will just be the normal cycles running their course like they have for decades.
Hot Rod, First off one article isn’t “everyone” predicting a crash.
Make no mistake, never in history has a parabolic rally like what silver is experiencing not ended in a crash. This one will end in a crash too.
That is virtually guaranteed by human nature. I’ll say it again. “action and reaction”
The D-wave is spawned by the extreme upside move at the C-wave top. The only way to avoid a severe D-wave is if the C-wave is very mild. That obviously isn’t the case. And as such you can bank on the D-wave being just as powerful on the downside as the C-wave was on the upside.
Turn the chart of silver upside down and you will get a pretty good idea of what the D-wave is going to do to the silver parabola.
If we already have a good chunk of AGQ and SIL and going to eventually move to GLD anyways on your signal, should we just put any extra into gold and gold miners now and avoid extra transaction charges and possible whipsaw in silver?
Intern, IMO we have about as close to a sure thing as one ever gets in this business in the silver market right now.
I just don’t think the buying will quit until silver at least tags $50. It will probably go higher but I think $50 is a given. I want to ride the rest of that move. Once I do then I will convert to gold.
Clark: Oh good – glad you found my post…, I use TDW only – always have.
But this month I sold about 1/2 the stuff that’s not tax protected in ISAs. I’m pretty used to using IG Index [spread bet] and with the right control will continue there = tax free [I hope!]. I don’t trust the inland revenue to stop the capital gains tax hikes in the future.
Rather than using huge leverage on a small pile of money, I’m having a good sized hill of money with careful leverage. That way I maximise my sleepful nights and still make more than with TDWaterhouse brokers.
I buy physical from Chard & Co in your town! Also ebay, thegoldbullion.co.uk [I think] and Baird & Co [London].
Here’s a short listing of some of my favorite gold miners. I do not yet own GORO or EGO. ANV has been the leader, but is stretched 50% above the 200 day ma. XG has been a moon shot ever since it was split out from XRA. NGD and UXG are buys on the expected pullback.
When I compute an OTM SLV option (SLV 50 July Calls) I get = [(45.53*.3584) – 1.95] / 1.95 = 7.4x
When I compute a GLD option (GLD 146 July Calls) I get = [(146.74*.5548) – 4.8] / 4.8 = 16.0x
??????
So, an OTM SLV call, which is 10% OTM is less than half of a GLD option already at the money?
A GLD 140 July Call computes to 12.1x while an SLV 60 July call computes to 9.7.
How is it possible that one can get much more leverage with an DITM GLD call than a super-OTM (lottery play) SLV call?
The way I understand leverage is a multiplier on the underlying security move. If this is mathematically correct then every 1% move in GLD is HUUUUUUUGE.
Gary,All I just don’t see a strong enough risk/reward for people currently in cash (I’m one of those btw) to jump back in for a move to $50
Yes, potentially one can gain 7% or 15% in AGQ but also the chance of a 2006 style stampede is equally high where people can lose double the gain… Or am I missing something?
(disclosure: I am investing/trading with family money so my risk tolerance is low)
Wouldn’t a huge drawdown in silver, similar to that of 2006, take down SLW with the same ferociousness?
If so, is Gary keeping SLW in his portfolio because it barely moved over the past month, and even after a serious correction in silver, SLW will still end up much higher than today?
If you want a good laugh, go check out Turd Ferguson’s latest “Wicked Witch of the Precious Metals” video.
This series stars Blythe Masters, the current head of global commodities at J.P. Morgan Chase, and therefore the chief manipulator of the silver market.
She is the Wicked Witch, and works within the Death Star (J.P. Morgan). She is always in her office plotting with her chief assistant in manipulating silver — Ruprecht (fictional). He is the top Flying Monkey in her stable of Flying Monkeys who trade silver for her.
This one isn’t as funny as some of the older ones. And I wouldn’t pay much attention to Turd’s prediction in here that silver will go down in June only to go up to 67 or something soon after. I know Gary and Doc have the D-wave decline nailed.
Enjoy! And if you like this, go back and look at some of the earlier ones, which I think are funnier.
Hot Rod, To calculate leverage divide your total portfolio by the price of SLV (if you want to figure leverage for silver). Lets say you have a $100,000 account. If you divide $100,000 by the current price ($45.53) you could buy 2196 shares. That would be considered 100% invested.
At the close on Friday the July 40 call options on SLV were priced at $685. So if you wanted to control the same 3000 shares with options then you would buy 30 call options.
At $685 per 1 contract it would cost you $20,550 to control the same amount of shares. So with DITM calls you can be basically 100% invested with 1/5th the capital.
Now if you wanted to be leveraged or extremely leveraged you could in theory buy roughly 150 July 40 call options with your $100,000. You would then be leveraged about 5:1.
If you are really reckless you could buy about 1800 July 48 out of the money call options and raise your leverage to roughly 60:1.
However if you are wrong and the market doesn’t do what you think it will do or it doesn’t do it in the time frame you need it to then those OTM options will quickly go to zero and you will lose all $100,000 and will have destroyed your account.
CORRECTION: I wasn’t paying attention to the details of what Turd was saying in this video. I was laughing at all the dialogue.
He is saying that he thinks silver will go to 67 by late June, so he’s not dissing the D-wave or mentioning it. That seems too high to me, and I think the C will top by June 10-17 at the very latest, but, that’s just my estimate.
Go have a laugh. These really are well done and funny.
I just realized I mistakenly said 3000 shares of SLV when it should have been 2200. The example I gave will be a little off but you still get the basic idea of how to calculate leverage.
We will see more and more of these absurd silver price targets as this continues. Sadly all these people will get caught at the top and then end up riding the crash all the way down.
If and when we get into a runaway move, how much more attention will you give to the “emotional or hysterical” aspect of the moves & for an exiting decision?
Gary: agreed. And, to emphasize a point that you’ve made all along — the drop in the dollar is driving this. And that is going to find a base and then go higher out of the 3-year low.
Looking at a couple of the larger gold miners during the 2008 run-up and pull-back: both PAAS and AUY dropped 80% from their respective highs. Neither have re-gained those highs, although PAAS is close. Gary, or any of the more seasoned PM bloggers know if there’s more to those stories? Lots of talk about the jr’s but not much about the sr’s for the final stages..I’m sure gary’s mentioned it here or on the premium site before but I don’t recall..can anyone share the reason?
Often miners will float secondary offerings that will depress price. Juniors are some of the worst offenders of this practice. It’s one of the reasons I don’t waste time trying to pick individual miners.
Gary: After the silver 17% drop in 2006 silver spent the rest of the move clawing its way back up and slightly exceeded that former high. Gold, in the meantime, rallied quite well as silver fought its way back to its high. This seems reasonable this time as well since silver sentiment is now at an extreme level and gold is (remarkably) neutral. That implies to me that gold needs to rally sharply to get to an extreme so we can end the C-wave. Any thoughts about the performance torch being passed to gold as get to the end game as happened in 2006?
I’m not sure we will see gold outperform but that isn’t why I want to convert. I just don’t want to get caught in a selling climax if silver longs all of a sudden get it into their heads to take profits.
“Seasonal highs almost without exception occur before mid-May, and June, July, August, and September have not for the last eleven years shown any high.”
Considering the gold:silver ratio is at about 32:1 I find this an opportune time to swap silver for gold. This is what I plan to do with my physical…Arbitrage.
Gary, Been a sub for a while. Have followed pretty much every move you have made with my own portfolio and have no complaints. Was invested in DGP in the past. It did not seem to follow spot as well as UGL. You may want to look at this. I don’t have any math to back it up, but remember not being pleased with the product’s performance as gold rallied.
$50 silver is the number everyone is waiting for. I think either profit taking kicks in 1 or 2 dollars below or we are going to shoot right past it and I think that is when the shorts are going to start to panic and cover. that’s what I see.
There will be some profit taking prior to $50 as big money starts to sell into strength. The question is will it be enough to turn silver down prior to reaching $50?
I doubt it.
$50 is too big of a magnet. And I think I can safely say there are no more shorts left solvent in the silver market so we don’t have to worry about a short squeeze at this point.
1) Most miners are Canadian. The gold price rise in Loonies is less dramatic than in dollars. 2) Miners lag when their costs rise quickly especially energy (read oil). Off 2008 bottom oil is up 325% and gold 218%. 3) Hedge funds have a “pairs trade” going. They are buying gold and shorting the major miners. 4) In 1980’s miners were about the only way to invest. Now investors have: gold/silver ETF’s, mutual funds, double short and double long ETF’s, futures, options etc. 5) Gary’s scenario for a “D” wave is falling gold/silver, equities, commodities (I assume) and a rising dollar. 6)When the above plays out, miners should do very well in the upcoming “A” wave.
Intern, The only reason I am in GLD and getting into DGP on the next dip, prior to any switchover is because in some of my accounts, if I sell a stock or ETF I have to wait a few days for the funds to settle before they will allow me to reuse the funds to buy another stock or ETF. In another one of my accounts, I can only do 3 trades a day. So rather than worrying about a delay in funds settlement, I am just bypassing that step on those particular accounts. I have SLV Options, so those will get switched as Gary outlined. Just a matter of forgoing a little less profits on silver on some of the accounts, but securely in the final runup on those accounts that are not as flexible to trade in. Otherwise I would be fully following Gary’s plan on all my accounts if it was possible.
I haven’t seen anyone mention Kinross Gold as a good stock to buy. Both Casey and Ruff have been recommending this. However, I have owned it for 2 years and it has done nothing. Any comments?
It’s a pair trade. They simultaneously buy an equal amount of gold and short an equal amount of GDX. I know of two hedge funds that employ this strategy in Europe.
Since the last C wave top, gold is up 48% and the GDX for example is up 11%.
John Hathaway and Eric Sprott, two managers of billions in gold assets and precious metal miner funds think these hedge fund managers will get burned. So do I.
Nevertheless, hedge funds are making this trade and it will work until it doesn’t.
It’s a senseless trade. Both are in uptrends. No credible hedge fund should be doing this.
You could go long both assets with possibly a smaller position in the under performing asset but it makes no sense what so ever to depress profits by shorting a rising asset class.
I seriously doubt very many hedge funds are making this kind of colossal mistake.
Gary, I only have one broker account that has margin. All others are IRA/401s. Once this Wave is over, will be closing the restricted trading IRA account and moving to Fidelity. Only opened it until I got my trading brokerage account opened and funded to trade on the platmform for free.
Gary: If this C-wave tops in June sometime, the entire C-wave would’ve lasted for about 26 months.
Do you have any sort of estimate as to how long the D-wave would last after a C-wave of that magnitude? Or has anyone done any studies on length of D-wave after C-wave?
I have a good chunk of my porfolio in SLW (long since $31) – In your view, why won’t SLW struggle mightily with silver for the rest of the C-wave since they are so closely tied to one another?
It seems that somehow everyone has now come to the conclusion that silver is going to crash immediately and that it is going to also crash the silver miners.
Folks this is not what I said. The odds are silver will just continue to lead gold higher and silver miners will reap the benefits.
The only reason I’m converting to gold is just on the slight chance we see another event like what happened in 06. I’m just forgoing a little outperformance to avoid that low probability event.
We will still make big gains in gold just not quite as big as silver. But we’ve made so much money already that it really isn’t important that we squeeze every last penny out of the silver trade.
you guys are crazy for selling your silver at $50. If gold is going to $1650 by June then silver will easily be around $60. I can guarantee as soon as $50 is cleared everyone who sold their metal at 50 will be chasing it again.
Gary, No matter what you say, some people will be hanging their butts out over the edge, without the safety rope strategy you have provided. You like the rock metaphor?
Hot Rod, thanks for that silver log chart. The scariest thing about it to me is the MACD rocketing up.
I’d consider that blue trendline you have as the upper line of the range. But what if we drew another trendline also starting in 2002, but more or less connecting 2004 and 2008, then 2006 is a bit of a blip and we’d be pretty much at that line now. So maybe that could be the lower end of the range.
Maybe this isn’t sound technicals analysis I don’t know, but just food for thought. Personally, I’m going with Gary’s plan, as while I love silver and the ride it’s been on, I’ll be more comfortable shifting soon to gold I think.
Yeah, this effort to squeeze every penny out of trading is counterproductive. Dial it back a little, reduce your stress, and enjoy the gains you’ve made.
There are many more opportunities in the future. This isn’t your last chance to make money.
I do see the other calculation example but am having a hard time getting the #’s to match. Let’s forget a second about the precise leverage amount….
Is it really true that an at the money call option in GLD has more leverage than an the money option is SLV? THis is the main question I am trying to validate.
Let’s take the $100,000.
SLV 45 at the money option (21 contracts * $375 = $7875) gives 12.7 times leverage.
GLD Jul 146 has a premium of $4.80. =100,000 / 146.74 = 681 shares. = 7 option contracts * $480 = 3360 =100000 / 3360 = 29 times leverage.
Using the other website’s delta calculation, the GLD call has a leverage of 16 times.
Either way, 16 or 29 times is higher than SLV 45 at 13 times.
Maybe it has to do with the fact that GLD is a higher share price than SLV?
Another thing I noticed is the open interest. I would assume that one would have to be very careful about picking a strike price that has enough interest or else selling them will be a nightmare.
The strikes looking good for GLD are 140 and 145 (sweet spots) and also 142, 146, 148 and 150.
Based on this, to me it seems that switching over from SLV to GLD options not only is significantly reducing the risk but is also significantly increasing the leverage.
The SLV option is more volatile than the GLD option but it has nothing to do with leverage. Leverage is simply the amount of shares one controls above what could be purchased with 100% of their portfolio.
You can achieve 10:1 leverage in GLD options just as easily as you can in SLV options. The added volatility of SLV will make the moves larger in each direction but that isn’t because the leverage is larger it’s just because SLV is more volatile.
Actually you may be able to get larger leverage in GLD because it is less volatile so you will be able to buy more options and control more shares above and beyond 100%.
India on Saturday has silver trading up equiv $2.50 and gold $26. A reaction to China raising interest rates again. Tomorrow night should be interesting.
Just a word of caution when it comes to these charts. For the most part the only reason technical analysis works is because enough people base their trades off of it that it has a self fulfilling tendency.
If your TA gets obscure enough no one will be trading based on it so it will have no predictive value.
Channel lines along the tops of trends tend to fall in this category.
Bull markets go up so they break through upside levels. That’s why uptrends almost always end up breaking up through a channel at some point. Technicians trying to pick tops often get fooled by this and then miss a big chunk of the move.
This is why I don’t put a lot of faith in patterns for the most part. (I do pay attention to triangles, T-1 patterns and crawls but that’s about it.)
Things like wedges, head & shoulders patterns, three peaks and a domed house, Elliot wave, etc are so subjective that there’s too much chance of them morphing or smart money fading them to fleece the retail trader who is gullible enough to believe these things give one an edge to be of any real use.
This gets really absurd when people try to incorporate these pattens into intraday moves. Intraday moves can be driven by just a few traders. Does an intraday head and shoulders pattern really have any meaning when it’s being driven by three or four big players?
Of course not.
If one just sticks to the big picture cycles and sentiment you will do just fine. If you sidetracked into thinking you are going to chart your way to riches in this bull market I’m afraid you will be sadly disappointed.
Aren’t you the one that bought the 2009 bottom with either a load of miners or AGQ? I thought you posted that some time ago. If that is the case, you sure have no worries.
I was referencing the fence sitters, the sellers of everything at any SMT portfolio adjustment, and the constant reading things into Gary’s writings that just do not exist.
From your posts, I don’t believe you are in that group. I also commend your buying at the apocalypse if that was you. I just joined Gary at that time and bought, but like a fool I traded, when I should have never looked again. Had I shut off my computer and walked away, my returns would have been multiples of what they are now.
I need a Hammy Sammich, some pork and Beanies and a double order of fries please! To wash it down, I need a large cup of that special blend of Tim&Jean coffee.
Tanks
Sold all my gold and silver on your advice and have a bid on AAPL and SMH ready to go for Monday morning.
I was long at the bottom, but I bought too early and took a tremendous beating in the process. I kept catching the falling knife all through Fall 08. I never sold a share, so I came out very well (Old Turkey!), but in no way am I pretending that I timed it perfectly. At one point I think I was down 70%. At the absolute bottom I had no dry powder left so I wound up buying silver bullion on my credit card.
Since then I am up thousands of percent in miners like EXK, but I have no desire to relive the experience. When silver collapses I intend to be far out of range.
When the real D wave comes, at the end of blow off top, it will eat every PM long alive.
In late ’81 and early ’82, on the backside of the $50 silver parabola, I was buying and selling silver.
I made lots of money very quickly.
What to expect. The drop in silver will not only kill the over extended, it will bring out large numbers of people who hold silver who didn’t sell it on the ascent.
They will realize something’s “wrong” and will disgorge silver.
Those who think the only way is “up” will at first buy their silver, and then they will discover that the flat price plateau they’re then on is not solid. The price will decline, 5% and 10%, and still there will be buyers. And then there will be freefall, further out, when silver will decline by 20% of where it then is, and more.
The failing backside of this building parabola will be as usual inconceivable, just like this rise now feels during this past two weeks to those who are watching and shaking their heads.
David, I do not believe for a minute that the D wave upon us will match what you experienced in 2008. That being said it is still a D wave.
To be honest with you, the upcoming D wave will be a blip to you at the end of this, so I’m not sure trading it has any value to you unless you plan position or company adjustments.
The only reason for me to trade is AGQ, which is clearly a trading vehicle. The miners take a lot more thought. I have really become accustomed to them swinging 50%, and reality says these juniors will for the most part be conversion plays.
My best for example is XG. I received the shares in the carve out. They are up 500% since then. Should I trade those shares around a D wave? My thinking is not.
Obviously you are sitting strong hand status with a good group of miners. Would I trade that status. No. Would Gary trade that status. Not sure but I think he has those same miners in his dresser drawer.
Rod, interesting. Thx! In just 1 month from 20 March 1987 till 27 April silver doubled 5,5$-11$..
Then intraday, 27 April it crashed about 30% from 11,10 to 7,8! Maybe in connection with the rollover to a new month’s future contract. + Some news too certainly.
Gold went more moderately from 405 to 478 till 27 April and ‘only’ dropped 10% that day
It is actually bullish for the dollar. I’m not gonna tell you why it’s bullish, but it is. A breakdown will be a FAKEdown; don’t fall for it.
That likely means the precious metals rally is near an end. And the stock market should march higher, much higher. It will be a breathtaking equities market rally in 2012.
Don’t get me wrong, precious metals will do fine probably year end and long term. (I own some silver and gold, by the way…since the last few weeks).
The next 3 months won’t be pretty for pm’s. But it will be great for stocks like RVBD and CY. Not sure why everyone wants to eat that last 3-4 points on silver.
Alex “..They simultaneously buy an equal amount of gold and short an equal amount of GDX….”
So, applying this to SLW, even though it broke down from a rising triangle, and is now crawling precariously along its 50 dma, once silver gets to around 50 the hedge funds could reverse – short silver and buy equities – thereby saving our SLW further downside ….
I haven’t heard or read anything about a silver/silver miner pair trade.
We know hedge funds are all over gold: Kyle Bass, my classmate John Paulson, PT Jones, Einhorn, Soros, Kaplan, Hermitage, Passport, etc. These guys don’t pair trade gold to my knowledge.
As far as I know, only European hedge funds like Carmignac (largest hedgie outside the U.S.) and commodity funds are doing anything with silver. They also have a large gold position.
gary if a broker for futures uses a forward contract and not the spot for TA , would that just be totaly insure they are wrong? to track gold do you have to use spot? or if you are tracking a forward contract does it suport itself?
Gary, how would you interpret a more dramatic pullback in gold and silver at this stage if it were to occur? Clearly, you’re in the modest pullback camp, so at what point would you interpret it as something more that we should be concerned about? Hopefully, just a useless hypothetical exercise!
Please read parkers post on ttheory. Very good gold silver comparison of 2006 and 2008. It implies silver something like 47 to 40 to 50 when gold rises steady. That answers some questions here about like where will be silver if gold goes 20 percent more.
The conversion by China of its holdings to commodities is not a surprising development.
What’s surprising is that the MSM is just now deciding this is something to consider.
China has been purchasing major positions since 2003 and 2004. Check when they first bought major positions in the wheat output of Argentina. That was the obvious start.
You know the phrase, “Sell on the news”? Well, that’s why the USD will bottom here.
After I read the whole top of the page and saw sign ups for a seminar, I thought…”hmmm, whatever” , then scrolling down I found the Diamond in the rough!
That double top silver, higher high gold top has some validity to it. History (based on human behavior reflected in the charts) often repeats itself.That could add to my view of things going forward in a good way.
Regarding the Zero Hedge article, it will be curious to see how much the world takes this seriously because the quote from today (not earlier this week) on the amount of the reduction came from the chairman of a private institution. Of course if this is a prominent institution then maybe it means alot. We shall see shortly.
I used to listen to Terry Laundry’s T Theory analysis of the markets every Sunday, but haven’t been a regular listener for a few months now. T Theory seems to be a workable theory for longer term timing. I probably ought to check the site once a month or so and see what his latest forecast is. His longer term forecast for gold (last time I listened) lines up with Gary’s–he says gold is in a bull market till 2020. But he does not have the short term accuracy that Gary has. Still, it’s nice to hear other methods of analysis confirming that this bull has a ways to go yet.
I agree. We could see a drop tomorrow, I doubt it though, or it doesn’t drop at all, and keeps going, way up into the clear blue sky. Then, the carpet gets pulled. But when, and at what price point. I am anxious to see how this plays out too.
Netflix reports monday AM and Amazon after Tuesday AM. Both of these are techhie sentiment favorites and their reports can affect Nasdaq. I think a lot of people have jumped on the Netflix bandwagon based on Cramer and, granted it has gone up considerably, if it has a bad report, it could weigh the sector to a downtrend.
I’m no guru, I just try to go by mass psychology. I own neither.
I was looking at switching some of my HZU into a gold bull plus etf. I want to put it into HBU since it is accurately tracking gold x2 but the volume is incredibly low. Another option is the etf HGU but it doesn’t track spot gold very well.
Have you got any thoughts for a fellow Canadian who doesn’t trade options?
My ABX seasonal model is showing an 80% probability of a higher close on Monday with a 60% chance that the close will be higher than the open. On Tuesday the model flips with an 80% chance of a lower close than the previous day. The model is 73% accurate.
It’s not an RRSP account but my brokerage account is not eligible for option trading…yet. Before the A-wave begins I will fill out the proper documents to trade options.
I think that I may try the low volume etf for the last part of the C-wave and hope that I will get out unscathed. My portfolio isn’t really that big anyhow…LOL
Rob, I’d go with HGU final determination being volume of half a mil to a mil plus. Wanting to sell into a 50 thousand volume stock or ETF can be difficult, I had talked about this about a month ago, I’ve traded the likes of ATD.B with 250K volume and while I did make money, I had to make the price move on occasion buying to close a gap. When you have time, it’s ok, but when you need to sell right now, it’s out of your hands.
Thanks for the link. That’s an interesting site. If I ever retire, I wonder if I’ll be interested in investment seminars like that?
I’m certainly undecided about whether those top patterns will repeat. I have to respect Gary’s analysis, and it seems that there’s not much to lose that way. The thing that the double top in slv gives us is the possibility that gld will not only be safer but more profitable.
Thanks again. I’m not a big shot by any stretch so I think I would be okay too. The other HGU does have a ton more volume but the return is quite a bit lower over the last 3 months. I plan on selling it prior to the panic selloff anyway.
I too am looking for an alternative for DGP. I think our best bet will be HBU.TO but the volume does concern me a bit. However, looking at the historical volume, I think when things get really euphoric the volume should increase and getting out shouldn’t be too much of a problem. I’m still contemplating whether to put anything in the miners for this finale so I might stay out of HGU.TO
Kids, Let’s not go crazy and lose decorum here. What Gary said, and repeated, is that he does not want to be caught in a possible selloff in silver and switching to gold reduces the volatility. He is willing to give up gains to protect from a possible downside.
everybody has been eagerly awaiting for the big C wave move to arrive. Now that it is finally here people want to move out of silver?? The move has just begun, the DXY is just breaking 74 on its way to 70 or lower so it makes no sense to close positions now just because of the magic number 50. Who cares what happened 50 years ago. I am sure who exits now will regret it later.
Raz: a few things— 1. 2006 is not 50 years ago 2. I will not regret banking a huge profit in silver and staying long PM’s via gold, even if silver soars from here. 3. Gary has made many fantastic calls, so whether he is right or not, saying doing what he suggests “makes NO sense” seems extreme to me. 4. Gary did not suggest selling silver until it hits 50. I have no idea why people are wanting to sell it now.
I have effectively switched to Gold already. On tuesday I will sell my silver long in my ISA & close out the equivalent short in my Spreadbetting account.
What I did at the open 45 minutes ago was effectively hedge my ISA position (short silver) & bought gold.
i am going to cut the leverage down until we get past the Fed meeting on the 27th but will continue holding positions until the dxy gets somewhat closer to the 70 level.
I’m 100% on board with Gary. All I’m saying is, I’ll probably exit silver at $49.75, a few pennies under $50, because I think there are decent odds the big 5-Oh triggers a lot of sell orders.
When I sell, I will immediately buy just as much NUGT and DGP.
One argument against it being “1980” is that during that time, it was the final top of the bull market in silver for a generation. The true mania. We are in an incredible market now but as I think we all know, this is not the top of the long term silver bull. So perhaps 2006 and 2008 offer the better analogy.
We are only 5% or so away from 50 tonight. We could see a tag of 50 after hours.
I loaded my /SI trend line off the summer move and then notice a channel it above the TL. Notice how price danced around the summer one and then bumped up for the 3rd time on the top of the tight channel where price was rejected 3 times pretty hard. It then busted through and is making a B-line for 50. So a tag of 50 and a correction back to the 42.50 zone would be around a 15% decline. Or it just rockets to upper 60’s!
Pima, I’ve followed Laundry and his T-theory for over 2 years. He is amazing, extremely good. Yes, and his gold-T now corresponds very well with Gary.
Apropos silver, the existential question of course, is this 2006 or 1980..
Here layover to old chart from 1979-80 of silver (to retain the details at the left part of the chart it was necessary to paste in the finish january part in special way).
Todays chart to the right. Quite striking similarities; Initial breakout above the recent high, the mid consolidation. The setback of the mid consolidation was 10% in 1979, only slighly more January this year. & Some of the wiggles in both (circled).
The present rise have been more gradual (the horisontal scale of today’s should be stretched a bit more than on the pic). Reflecting perhaps that today is still not yet the mania bull finish phase like 1980
Also targets drawn (horisontal lines) if the percent rise after the consolidation will be the same today as then.
Strange coincidence, after mailing the above to a friend couple of days ago, I skimmed thru the recent posts at the SMT blog, and saw that Basil had independently arrived at the same conclusion. He mentioned he had noticed the mid consolidation in 1979, and calculated the target to 74$ if the rise from our last January consolidation matched the rate of 1979-80’s.
Very close to the target already drawn on the map, 71$.
The sharp few days correction in beginning of Jan 1980 started at ’58$’ in our terms, and went down to ’49’.
However, if today is ‘2006’ then one should get out maybe soon. Guess much depends on the dollar, a continued nasty dip could set up for ‘1980’.
In all 3 previous major occations, silver recovered following the first strong corrections; after the primo january dip 1980, the first crash 2006 and the dip post first top of 2008 (2008 double top).
The correction in gold that everyone is awaiting seems very unlikely if the dollar keeps falling apart like it is… Maybe a Fed governor statement tomorrow will do it… or maybe a margin hike in silver (its due)…Something needs to happen. Options expiration is Tuesday, and its very unlikely that this is where we close on Tuesday.
RomeoBravo:”One argument against it being “1980” is that during that time, it was the final top of the bull market in silver for a generation. The true mania. We are in an incredible market now but as I think we all know, this is not the top of the long term silver bull. So perhaps 2006 and 2008 offer the better analogy.”
We need to see a gorgeous parabola before this is over. It’s a visual expression of the group mind.
We are witnessing mass hysteria and delusion. We can measure its intensity by the proportions of the parabola.
This appears on all time frames. We are working on a yearly time frame.
We are about to experience a double top moment.
But the base, this time, is much longer and more gradual than 1980. So, the base is bigger and the rise will be huge.
We are watching the daily to see the parabola in that time frame, and it is sharp, like 1980; so the backside will be vertical, too.
Because I track my DSI pattern, and 1X is 1547, and we’re not there, yet, silver will continue to rise and lead. When 1x or 1.1x, which is 1558, is reached, we may have the correction in silver.
trond, the 1980 chart shows the retracement Gary’s talking about starting somewhere in the 60-75 range.
Imagine all the short reversal pickers who are going to flood in very shortly because there’s no way this can go higher, right?
Not only exit at 50, but heck, short it, right? NOT.
The beauty of this move will be a move to 65-70+, a fast short reversal for a few weeks, and then the rest of the 1980 parabola, taking silver this time to 123-130, the true fair value, inflation adjusted against 30 years ago.
trond, your 80 chart shows a 20% drop and a 50% extension from that low.
That will take silver, from 70 to 55 to 90+.
Even though 100 is a big round number, I think the stretch will be so huge from 55 and the suckers will believe 100 is in the cards, that cutting the move off at 90+ will be sufficient for a huge windfall in that D wave.
We’ll soon find out as this is all on rush-rush expedited time. We’re in a parabola, and there’s so many noobs and stackers to eat.
Trond’s chart shows the way. History will not fully repeat, but we know what parabolas look like and for the newbies here, the backside is clear as a bell.
What trond doesn’t show is that after that 36 backside range, SI in a matter of 45 days, roughly, sank much more, and never stopped sinking, with the first plateau at 30 and then 28 and 26 and 24 and finally 20. At that time, I left the silver flipping biz as nobody holding would part with it.
So, we will see the public stop exiting silver if what I’ve just posted becomes real, at this price, here, and just camp on their holdings, joining methuselah and other “stackers”.
That 10 yr parabola will take years more before it comes into play. Meanwhile, the stackers had better enjoy coin sandwiches.
“If your TA gets obscure enough no one will be trading based on it so it will have no predictive value.”
This is a great point Gary, the kind of reminder that would be worth pasting above one’s computer for anyone trying technicals analysis. Making note to self.
Thanks Hot Rod for that amended chart. My suggestion second trendline is probably not sound TA, but I just figure if one’s looking for a trendline along the tops, it was worth pointing out. All the more reason, I’ll be happy to switch over to gold soon if the plan works out.
With a spurt in globex/early Asian trading today, we’re up to $47.70 at the moment. It sure feels like there’s a magnet drawing silver to $50…
I’ve been thinking about your 1980 silver chart some more, and I’m thinking we may be in the $16-18 area as that is approximately the current inflation adjusted level.
AGQ full load in 401k self managed and in trading accounts 30% May SLV $38’s and 70% cash. Ready to roll, judging by the strength, likely sooner than later.
Seeking advice: My sister has lots of money stuck in her 401K at work. Of course, it has no “precious metals” option to put that money into.
Is there anything she can do apart from taking all that money out and taking the tax hit? Can she self-manage it or any option that would allow her to put it into precious metals?
I asked Gary to forward you my email. Bascally, i was just curious. You mentionned that in tge space of 8 weeks, you turned 9000$ into 193000$, which is truely amazing! Was it via options? If so, did you buy tons of OTM ones? Thanks for your help and insight.
Who is planning to convert from silver to gold or at least partial positions? I am starting to see rampent bullishness everywhere on silver with people calling for 60,70, or even 100 silver. Sounds contrary to me, and i worry we won’t even hit 50 b4 correcting
This bit from the 24 April update backs up very well the logic behind Gary’s plan to shift from silver to gold for the final leg of this C-wave:
“The precious metals rally that began in July-August of 2010 looks very similar to the bull runs in gold and silver in 2005-06, and 2007-08. Let’s examine what happened at the end of those bull markets for clues on how to play the expected top in metals coming in the May-June 2011 time frame.
As you can see, silver made a top in mid-April 2006, suffered a big correction, and struggled to make a token new high in mid-May. Meanwhile, gold was far less volatile and rose steadily despite silver’s problems. Importantly, gold topped on silver’s double-top. Afterwards, silver crashed much harder than gold over the next month.
Once again, silver made a double top while gold topped on silver’s second top. And silver crashed harder than gold over the next two weeks.
Silver acts like a modern day Icarus at tops. It flies a little too high, fails to learn its lesson, and on the second attempt its wings melt completely resulting in a crash landing.
In the coming weeks, I will be watching very closely to see if silver: 1) makes a top, 2) corrects more significantly than gold does, and 3) struggles to make a new top while gold keeps climbing. This pattern should provide an excellent signal take profits in gold.”
Going to attempt to hold, see where it takes us and watch closely. We get an out of control day, a 6% plus day then I will likely sell there and then, at those levels it will likely mark the top.
Am I understanding you correctly, that you now have a full AGQ position in one account and a boat load of SLV calls in another? And this is a position that you put on recently, so in profit now, but not huge profit yet, right?
Do you have a target price for silver? Are you planning to ride out the C wave in silver or will you convert to gold at some point?
I have no real price targets. I do believe Silver is very overdue for a big correction, so I will not be adding anything else until that happens. If it doesn’t happen, I will ride with what have. If it does, I will LOAD UP HARD as it’s cliff diving, hopefully towards the bottom.
I see the arguments for gold outperforming, but Silver seems special this time around, I will be riding the majority with Silver. I’m thinking a goo portion of GLD calls too.
Just my read… -People are banking profits they don’t have yet. -Options play is excessive. -Seeing predicitons of ridiculous prices for silver…not that they can’t happen, but the sky high predictions are what is key here.
Greed and euphoria. My interpretation..We are nearing a top in silver.
Tomorrow, if we open with the strength we’re seeing now, I will clear out all Silver related positions, but will keep my gold miners. I’ll put 40% of my portfolio in DGP. I’ll add 30% more to DGP on a breakout following a correction. Any other action will be based on the action as it unfolds.
Poly, That strike price would be at an expected low if a correction occurs. Why June expiration vs July or August? Are you figuring the timing for the Dollar bottom? Seems like Gary mentioned 4-6 weeks to get to gold $1650. Thanks in advance, as I respect your posts. Russ
Referencing the 1979/80 silver parabolic move, I think that when we hit a $50 POS that this will be a psychological profit taking event, which will resemble the same event at $38 POS in 1979, only to see silver go parabolic once more in a final blow off top
btw Gary it’s Trader Dan who says the hedge funds are shorting the miners alth reading btw the lines he doesn’t seem to have any evidence for this, he says it’s a ratio trade, whichever way the metal price goes they will make money, because in a correction the miners will decline slightly more than the metal
Do I sell into strength tomorrow and take half off the table in my AGQ and SLV call positions and let the rest ride up until we touch 50 or let it all ride up to 50 and then go with Gary’s gold plan…
I would stay with Gary’s plan. Gary has said several times that he believes $50 gives you plenty of cushion to escape any possible surprise correction. I mean, if it’s good enough for Gary, and he’s the boss…
Look at the 79-80 chart that’s being posted here, and the current chart.
What I look for is fibonacci symmetry.
The repudiation of the monthly reversal high in gold, back in Dec/Jan set up for a me a probability of 1547. and I posted it then, in Feb, as one probable directional number. We’re going there. And because this is a repudiation, rather than a reversal down, the 3X is very common to these reversals. And because this is on a monthly, hens teeth, I think it highly probable we will get near 1770.
This silver move is similar. But this is on a fibonacci symmetry.
If you reviewed as many parabolas as I have, you’d see that there are short stubby ones and there are long extended ones and there are perfect ones. This, because of the gold move (crazy as it sounds), is along for the gold ride.
So, I’m guessing given this base that silver won’t turn until gold hits 1547. And that will move silver into the low 60’s, I think.
If this can happen, we will have painted a gorgeous, harmonious, elegant parabola. Then, the sharp jerk back.
This is how I’m approaching the puts I’ll buy against my physical so I avoid the certain sharp pullback.
Blake, the slv calls are out far enough that Gary will get us out before the D wave. For the AGQ shares, I would put a trailing stop. I myself own 50 july slv 40 calls. I am not selling them until Gary declares the D wave is near. But remember this, silver trades round the clock. It could gap down in the overnight market. This is all IMHO of course. In the end, you have to gauge your risk tolerance and make your decision. Remember if you sell, you can always get back in. Good luck.
I remember the 1980 run, when a friend of mine was floored that silver had increased by $5 one day, saying it wasn’t too long ago that silver traded at $5! Knocking on the $49 door folks….tomorrow should be interesting, to say the least, as the silver bullet is leaving the station.
those stops that got ran, if they were shorts going to be sweating tomorrow if dumb money piles in and shots silver past $50. people who had those stops as profit triggers going to wake up with nice realized profits
Adami is one of the guys on Fast Money (CNBC). What we said specifically was that he wouldn’t be surprised to see silver go up $7-$8 over a 24 hours period. Not quite the same thing as gapping up. We would need to be in the 53-54 range by tomorrow night or so if he’s right (at least this time around) but who knows. He’s been dead right one silver and dead wrong on gold.
Here is the video (he did make it sound like he was talking to some BIG silver traders but again, who knows):
Beanie, your posting is OLD NEWS. You are talking MSM news. That’s worthless. It causes selling not buying, unless all the china people are buying and that will mean a guaranteed total rape of all the noobs.
The focus here imo should not be on 50 but how to identify the top and how to short or buy puts for the sharp reversal at around 60+.
Actually I don’t leave for OR until Wednesday morning. I’ve been stuck up on a big wall here in Red Rocks all day and just got home.
And yes I do not like that huge spike up. Gaps like that are a sign of very emotional trading. Usually it’s better to fade an extreme emotional move. Although no one in their right mind should short silver.
Although once the C-wave is finished there will be a fortune to be made in out of the money puts on silver.
THe way to recognize a top is move up of three bucks or so on 5X average volume or greater. Perhaps tomorrow. THat’s why i hope this holds, but big money will be selling into this all night and into the morning. Just hope there are enough suckers buying to keep the price stable until trading opens manana.
Is the China story new? That certainly could create a blowoff top. I just wonder how large short positions are at this stage of the game. Its hard to imagine shorts having lasted this long. Other than top pickers who have probably been loading up and getting stopped out all the way up.
MrMiyagi does not like the look of spikes. Makes people too trigger happy. Slow, steady climbs make people pause and think. Go to kitco’s silver forum and read the craziness. Or don’t….
Fusby, I don’t think UUP is as Dollar reflective as one might think. I am considering FXY, FXE & FXB long instead. Usually, CHF is better, but their currency is based on, I think, 40% gold standard (D Wave).
I think it’s too early to buy puts. The breakout above 50 will crush the shorts who are lining up.
IMO, the game is much bigger than just the floor traders and the small fry. There’s a fortune to harvest on the short side from the entire world by driving silver 10 bucks higher, and the shorts will never have to cover much of anything as the noobs take over from 50 up.
Thanks Gary, as I said, I am starting to see the euphoria and unrealistic 100-150$ price talk. By the way, my wife and I have been to Red Rock on the tow occasions we visited Las Vegas. No climbing like you but scrambling up some outcroppings a hundred or so feet up affords one with great views.
I think there will be a selloff in silver early this week, however it it will be less deep and less long than people expect.
I think it recovers and then resumes going up with gold to complete whatever is left of this cycle according to gary (making further highs in the process).
Although it is also possible the comex pulls out an extremely high margin or a rule change if they really want to jump on this hard.
Does anybody here encouter with the coming statements from Bernanke on Wednesday I guess. If the dollar is in jeopardy the next days/hours couldn´t it be a perfect moment to make some comments pointing to a stabilization which could trigger say at least a consoldition of silver.
You said in one post you are selling all of your silver futures within 12 hours …
But a shor time later you posted this:
“I think there will be a selloff in silver early this week, however it it will be less deep and less long than people expect. I think it recovers and then resumes going up with gold to complete whatever is left of this cycle according to gary (making further highs in the process).”
That sounds like you are planning to ride it out.
So which is it?
Are selling today, or holding on and riding it out?
Clarifying. I intend to exit within about 8 or so hours.
My expectation of what will happen this week is not a scenario I want to bet on by holding. (Although I will attempt to buy any decline that materializes to re-acquire my position (with with a small stop)).
Can you tell us what you are waiting for? What do you expect to happen in 8 hours?
I am inclined to just hold on, but you have more bullish than most here and if even you are getting out that makes me think I should take some off the table today too.
The action of late and my various rules and indicators make me want out of silver.
My work makes me expect higher prices than what we have so far tonight, but I won’t wait too long to get them if it doesn’t happen.
I’m not looking for anyting in ‘8 hours’. It’s just a rough window of my patience. Essentially I simply intend to get out this morning sometime and am trying to do the best I can.
Silver may continue up afterward (explosively?). Or go flat. Or drop. I don’t know. I’m not bailing on the bull or selling my gold futures or anything.
Silver has simply reached a point where my trade (for now) is done for various technical, risk/return reasons. (There is also major news/events this week.)
Should the pullback I expect occur, then I will attempt to rebuy with a tight stop. This is by no means a permanent exit, but I have a history of not grabbing gains when they are good and and I’m not going to make that mistake this time.
I’m not liking the look of this big gap open and spike to $50. It could easily be an exhaustion move, and on a holiday when ETF holders like myself cannot trade.
Wouldn’t surprise me to get trapped in a pullback while sitting on my hands unable to do anything about it.
Thanks to Gary I have a very strong hand, so with that in mind, I’m gonna go out and enjoy the Easter Holiday and come back tomorrow.
I’m watching how the premarket trades. If it pulls back a bit, I’ll hold and watch the open to see what it gives us. A spike at the open and I’ll start lightening up.
THis is just my style though. I like to sell into strength, and I see spikes as being potential topping action as they create big volume and big money needs big volume to sell into.
Mu upside Silver projection based on the Fib 423% level is around $62 but I’m a seller at these levels. I’ve had a good run and I’d rather sell into strength than try and squeeze out the last few pips. Downside is that I’m in a leveraged silver ETF and the UK markets are closed today – I just hope the sell off doesn’t start in the US session today leaving me trapped and unable to get out until tomorrow morning!
I don’t think the gap should be feared, but it might be a good time to roll out of AGQ and if still bullish on silver just go to the unleveraged etf’s (SIVR or SLV).
The Shanghai Gold Exchange just announced it had raised the level of deposit required for its silver forward contract by 3 percent and may roll out further measures to curb excessive speculation and manage price volatility. According to the SGE, margins on its silver [Ag (T+D)] forward contract would be raised to 15 percent from April 25 compared with the previous 12 percent, according to a notice posted on its website. Silver did not even pretend to react on the news. And the upcoming silver hike by the COMEX will have absolutely the same effect.
If Silver holds here and resumes climbing we are back in line with the trend from last week. That spike was fun, but we make more money on 2x silver ETFs with a slow and steady increase than a huge spike, (2x daily) plus it is less stressfull.
Thank you Fubsy for your contribution! Good Morning Everybody! I know a huge move at the open is making everyone nervous. Better than a gap down I say. Needless to say, we all know the dollar will continue working lower. I have a feeling that Wednesday’s Fed press conference will culminate in a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” moment.
I subscribed to Gary not necessarily to get rich, but to keep from making a stupid mistake. He is loaded with an unusual amount of common sense. I am much more average.
I am highly leveraged. My nature is saying to ride this to 55, but because of my leverage, that would probably be stupid. I will sell my leveraged silver positions at 50 like Gary suggested to begin the process of buying a leveraged position in gold. I expect a pullback Wednesday or Thursday to correspond with Bernanke’s conference to be able to do this. I will keep my slv positions, and keep my slw calls.
Good morning everyone, Does anybody see this possible scenario; silver, because of it`s outrageous rise already moves to the sidelines somewhat in neutral like slw as of late while gold continues on to finish the C wave. If so, this would be an excellent time to move over to the gold trade.
ahh i slept like a baby last night!! i made a cartload of cash last night and happy to see the price fading away this morning. The boys were obviously gunning for the 50 last night and i think that was it for at least a few days.
Any info you have now (your thoughts on what is going on, what you are keying off of, strategies, strikes, etc) would be greatly appreciated if you could post them to the premium site. Kind of like what you did last week giving a heads up in the morning on a trade before the close if something happened.
If you’re concerned about an AGQ or SLV position tanking today, you could short silver futures for a hedge (from your post it sounds like you can trade futures today).
I came across a very interesting article from January 2008 where a group who followed, tracked and analyzed silver over the long term was very bullish on it and making the case for much, much higher values. We know what happened a few months later.
I then went to their homepage and found their silver update in 2001 from early March. What a riot. This article is quite different. THey are preaching a “once bitten twice shy” attitude and giving warning that silver is too high and getting too risky. Well, we know what has happened in the past 4 weeks!
It just goes to show that not even the “experts” know what they are doing.
A lot of what Gary says is intertwined in their philosophy, interestingly. For one, they outline you will never catch the top or bottom and just cannot make the calls in real time.
Is anyone else curious what went down last night with the big boys? Especially with it being Easter Sunday.
Most are with families, getting rest for the upcoming week.
With the runaway silver – I wonder what phone calls were being made around the horn of billionaires, traders, central banks and bank execs (not to mention Ben and Blythe).
Were they sound asleep, sleeping like a baby, were they woken up by a spouse, relative or colleague or were they working, leading the charge?…
You got to believe that years (maybe months) from now, there will be books/movies written about all this.
weekly floor pivot R1 on june gold at 1516, on may silver the WR1 is 47.77 …weekly floor pivots get respected over and over in all the futures, like last week on gold the WR1 was at 1501.7 and we waffled around there quite awhile
Does anyone know any good push notification software for twitter on the IPHONE? I would like to know when Gary makes changes to his portfolio so I can change mine right away. Hopefully the notification has a nice alarm tone to it as well. THanks!
Hot Rod>> I tried doing that.. your talking about the one where I have to input my phone number right? Apparently I can’t enter my phone number since I live in none of the selected locations.
The action over night looked scary to me, was worried we wouldn’t make it through. But now we’re well into the trading day and it’s holding up, in spite of what must have been a decent amount of profit taking. I’m encouraged to think if we can hold the strong over night action for another hour or so we could be clear for $50+
Gary>> Yeah I added you on twitter…I’m just trying to set it so that I can get your message as a push notification. There should be an app for this.. I’ll look for it 🙂
Can someone refresh my memory please. When GAry decides to turn his silver etf into a gold etf will he sell his position in SLW or does he ride that until the end?
I might eventually buy miners again, but their performance has been abysmal lately. Soon they might not have a strong stock market OR metals to hold them up, if metals pull back at all.
if anyone cares to know what I did, i switched out most of my AGQ right beefore the nosedive, and bought some DGP right after the nosedive… i also ditched my slw at a loss, i figure if silver corrects, slw will correct even more.. still holding a little bit of AGQ to see what happens…
It is my opinion that the Good Friday closure is the reason for the price spike. I don’t know what kind of volume trades overseas but it would have been light enough that it did not support the gain. On the other hand, if it was a downtrend, it would have continued. Go figure!
I’m not sure Silver is ready to roll over right here, but the way it’s acting and where it’s come from, one thing you can bank on is a massive drop, this week, IMO. The volume on SLV is unreal already. 42m in 40 minutes!
If Silver touches $49.50 by tomorrow or Wed, I’m putting in a “Lottery Play” on the SLV $45 puts, using the new weekly strikes, so expiring this Friday. So it will be a play on a mini collapse. Lottery play of course, so no more than say 0.5%-1.0% trade.
Got out at the open at 363.31 on AGQ and now 100% cash minding the old adage that “pigs get slaughtered”.
I have nothing to back this up with but my intuition based on 20 years of watching the markets, but I expect SI to drop down a few bucks from here, run up to make a nominal high (a tad over $50) and then crumble. That scenario, I suppose, would cause the most amount of pain to the greatest number of people.
The GL chart, on the other hand looks delicious now. Once it descends into its already overdue daily low I would go back into the PMs with DGP. Given the size of this base $1650 gold looks very feasible.
I still think Gary will be right that silver hits $50 before really breaking down. (the “what would cause the most pain to the most sheeple?” approach rarely fails)
That said, there would be some nice coin to be made on the journey from $45 to $50. I will be a buyer at $45 if we make it there.
If not, I’m doing fine. I was going to throw in an “Everything is OK” but I don’t want to steal SB’s line.
Anyone know what SLV would be at $50.00 POS? Seems like a dollar and change differential or so; my best guess is 48.95 SLV. Thoughts? I want to set my conditional sell orders…
As mentioned according to my plan…I am out of silver at this point..either sold, or bought put protection…did it at the open. Last night was close enough for me, and the gap open seemed like a good chance to protect myself. I do all this in violation of my Turkey trading style…parabolic moves are at least my exception to the rule….I, like many on this blog, still have old trading scars that haven’t gone away…so perhaps I am really too early due to my sensitivity to parabolic rises…when I see these things I get real real nervous.
Here the last update to the chart I posted 12th of April. The similarities to 2006, circled, led me to think a parabolic move was straight ahead, as mentioned in the post at that time, even if it was hard to believe something like that could happen straight ahead.
Now it has alrady exceeded 2006.
A transparent layover, the first top before an important consolidation several weeks ago aligned, see how similar tonights breakdown is to 2006.
“…we believe the improving NEM story is largely factored into the shares, given the stock is trading at 1.4x our NAV estimate and 6.0x and 7.0x our 2012/13 EBITDA estimates, respectively. Further, NEM still faces significant underlying cost pressures (cash costs were better than guidance, but were still +9% sequentially and +16% y/y), and substantial capital spending requirements to achieve the 6-year volume growth targets, chewing up a significant amount of FCF by our estimates (NEM is generating basically no FCF in 2012 vs. the average FCF yield of 6.8% for the broader US metals & mining stocks under coverage). Accordingly, we maintain our Neutral rating… Raising Estimates – We are raising our 2011 estimate from $3.56 to $3.72, due to the better than expected Q1 results, and due to our view NEM’s cash costs will likely be at the low end of management’s target range. We are maintaining our 2012 and 2013 estimates of $3.67 and $3.07, respectively. Our estimates are based on 2011 gold and copper price assumptions of $1,375/oz & $4.56/lb, and 2012 gold and copper price assumptions of $1,350/oz and $4.50/lb, respectively.
To summarize:
Zero growth in Free Cash Flow caused by rapidly increased costs and CS projections for decreasing Price of Gold. Earnings to fall from $3.72 (2011), to $3.67 (3.67 (2012), to $3.07 (2013).
Maybe this helps explain why so many gold/silver miners have fallen behind the recent bullion price curve.”
Good Trade WES. I should have done the same seeing it was up 5%. Don’t like the action here, volume already 2nd highest ever after 90 min. SLV on Stock Charts already clearly printing a big reversal, IMO.
Gary, This reversal is happening without the expected weakness in the dollar. Do you think that gold/silver will continue to rally (after the trigger) even in the face of a dollar bounce in the next week or two?
Does anyone know if the free Tweetymail serve that Gary recommends works? Or do you have to sign up for one of their fee services? I don’t recall getting the April 22 trigger notification.
I am still on the sell on gold I got last week. A dip here will fulfill it and then we can start up again. My analysis agrees with Gary’s that a dip to $1480 is coming.
Instead of tweetymail, just go into your twitter account and next to gary’s name there is a check box that will allow you to receive texts when he posts. Its more reliable and you don’t need any extra programs.
Michael, I’m not saying to buy here. Just be prepared to let you trader trigger work. Don’t let your emotions prevent you from jumping on the opportunity that’s coming (hopefully).
With gold/silver options expiring tomorrow, and the Fed meeting tomorrow and Wednesday (with Ben giving his first live press conference after the meeting!!!), this weakness should be a 3 or 4 day affair. We’ll probably see the daily cycle low on Wednesday or Thursday.
“Leave room for a downdraft for gold after Ben Bernanke speaks on Wednesday. If he does anything that will be interpreted as a reason to sell bonds — and therefore raise interest rates — gold will get hurt, as it thrives in low-interest-rate environments.
But remember, gold has outperformed all assets in the last decade — all of them — in both high and low interest rates, so don’t expect too big a downturn. Way too many people want in, and way too many have too little exposure. No wonder it keeps going higher! “
FWIW, I think they make 1500 look strong enough and sucker in more longs before bashing it below 1500… its a pattern Ive seen before at major round numbers.
I’m glad I bought at 46 and 47 this morning. Gary’s comments gave me the courage. I made a mistake and sold too much back on April 12. Its been killing me watch the rise from 42 to 50 with only my physical.
This has to be an exhaustion short term top for at least a few days. AGQ trading 4.5 million and half the day is not even over yet. Man, once this reverses, its going to dive quick because everyone will exit at the same time.
Yes you won’t have any choice. If you think gold is going to $1650 like me you could buy into strength today and still have huge upside potential.
Even buying into silver here still has considerable upside till $50. Heck it’s only at $47.75. And it does appear the market is determined to see $50 before any real profit taking occurs.
For the benefit of my fellow “turkeys” out there … I’m up 6.3% so far today … did not sell a single share. I am in AGQ and SLV Calls bought on Gary’s lead.
Trading volume in an exchange traded fund (ETF) that bets against silver surged to a record on Monday amid volatile action in the metal’s price.
More than 14 million shares of ProShares UltraShort Silver (NYSEArca:ZSL) traded Monday morning as the ETF was poised to break its volume record set last week.
ProShares UltraShort Silver is designed to produce daily returns that correspond to 200% of the inverse performance of silver bullion.
The so-called leveraged inverse ETF was up more than 2% in recent trading Monday as silver saw earlier gains disappear.
Once the miners find their daily cycle bottom, they will slingshot higher to “catch up with” gold/silver during the final parabolic daily cycle in the C-wave.
This volatility is insane, this is either an afternoon relief rally or that was it for the correction. I have a feeling it’s the lateral. This thing probably won’t peak until all the top callers are sick and tired(or bankrupt) of trying to time these corrections with reverse etfs/options.
well I am not selling anything here..just following the plan myself. I am kinda pissed I was out and didn’t pick up some silver at the 45.70 area..oh well probably get another chance this week when the sub humans start their bullish talk on the toilet paper defaced with “in god we trust”.
Shalom…everything is ok right? Or are you preparing for your “managed” q and a session. Since you already know what will be asked I really don’t want to see you fumble your big chance this week. You could be a somebody after this week.
We are definitely in a “wear you out” phase with the miners. Someone pointed out that May is typically a solid month for returns in the miners, with a intermediate top on the way late May/June, they should catch a strong bid.
Gary’s triangle break out is still in play. A close under that top blue line might have me scratching my head, but so far they are hold strong.
Just a brief game to pass the time. Does this look bullish or bearish to you? Would you buy it or bet against it? I will reply back in a few minutes with what it is.
I like that, and thx for reminding me to look at AAU and ANV.
I was going to be away this morning and awoke to silver up $2.50! Wow, so I looked at a few holdings and decided to sell my AXU at the gap open, since it had a gap at $9.50-and 1/2 my EXK, which was one of my larger miners holdings. (still love that chart pattern).
Looking at GOLD charts I already bought GORO and HMY , and Today I bought EGO. I rode EGO and IAG and AUY up in 2009 , and it went stale. Now I really like that set-up.
I’m thinking it’s quite possible that a move above $50 in silver could prompt a lot of short-covering. Plus plenty who have sold will jump right back in on the breakout. You can pretty well count on that.
Not saying it will happen, but a viable enough scenario so I’m standing pat with my futures and SLV option positions.
“They also serve who only stand and wait.” — John Milton
David: I can’t even imagine what “DGP is not available for online purchases” even means. I use E*Trade and buy and short all sorts of stuff and never seen such a thing.
Bob, I saw you are going to Maui. Make sure to check out Saigon Cafe in Wailuku (Rice in a clay pot is a winner) and local favorite Sam Sato’s (best Dry Mien noodles). Also Sansei (Kihei) for some of the freshest sushi made for man and Mama’s Fish House (Paia) for the day’s fresh catch. Shorts and slippers all day. Aloha Oe.
Thanks for the suggestions. I had a birthday party at Sansei before. We love their food. Mama’s overated iMO. I will definitely eat at the Wailuku restaurants.
$5,000.00 Gold seems likely to me in the next three to four years…
Check out this blog another tracker posted a few days ago. Very long but worth the read is it puts such a large number like 5000 in our economic context…
Yes, H. I am averaging up, sometimes down, here with a miner or two. My instinct tells me that no c-wave finale will come without miner participation; the market is just too thin. When you least expect it. May take awhile. Have a drink.
As for Great Panther: Its longtime holders (both big and small fry) have endured broadside broad plank beatings before. Yeah, looks bad for awhile, then pow! Last fall watching the daily uptick took my breath away (note, no mention of this spring’s insane runup). I believe GPL will participate in the finale. At least, I hope?
I feel we will get a wash out event around the Benank’s press conference. Very likely it is going to be in the morning before the conference. In the conference he will just the only thing he knows to do (i.e. rev up the Apache).
There might be some truth to the hedge funds hedging the PM book with miners. The miners are behaving very badly given all the froth in the PMs. Any PM correction will likely force an unwind of the trade.
For those of us “playing at home” it’s very helpful to see exactly what you and the other experienced options traders are buying and selling so we can learn and eventually start making options trades on our own.
I encourage Wes, Poly, MrMiyagi, Wav_riddah and all the other options traders (I apologize for not listing you by name) to please post the specific option contracts you are buying (for example “SLV July 40”).
I don’t need to know how many contracts you are buying (unless you want to share) but I’d really like to know the stock, strike price and expiry date.
I know it averages more volume, but if you look at it’s history that volume seems to come in big chunks on certain days. Then, other days it looks pathetic.
UGL looks a bit more normal & smooth to me. I’m leaning towards using UGL, but everyone here is jumping on the DGL ticker (besides you).
Dive in Silver past 30 minutes needs to be watched closely, lost all the support built up from the morning drop on the 1-5 minute charts. Strong volume.
NFLX reported lower guidance, stock down about 3% (8$) AH. This might swing confidence of the mass market tomorrow, especially if AMZN reports less than expected. Am I wrong on this observation?
PK, I think you’re wasting your time trying to chart breakdown points on the HUI. During the last correction the HUI dipped all the way to 520. At the time everyone was convinced this was a broken chart.
Look what happened three weeks later. New all time highs.
As long as the HUI, or more importantly gold, keeps making higher highs and higher lows that’s the only thing that matters.
The miners are probably just smelling out an approaching daily cycle low and as they are more volatile than gold they a selling off harder. Once the correction is complete I have no doubt miners will make big new highs.
I wanted to buy GDX but wanted to save my USD for DGP if we get that pullback. So I bought XGD.TO, it’s very similar to GDX. Does anyone have anything bad to comment about XGD.TO?
I know miners can go berserk and have done so whenever bullion has, but they really have shown next to little life during this INT cycle. We could work off the assumption they will get going as in the past and have faith they will, but to say they look good here is probably a little wishful, IMO. There is risk (equities correlation) that all though we’re on the right trade (Long Bullion + Miners) we come at with less than desirable returns for picking a blow off C-Wave. The Silver miners showed us little (relative) strength in light of parabolic Silver movements. They should have gone berserk, they did no such thing. (I’m not talking Juniors)
If these Gold miners are to shine, then the one KEY requirement is Gold getting to Gary’s $1,650 target, belief in the C-Wave and gold as the driver. So in that case, why not just play that requirement and not worry about miners? Play GLD with like a June $140 call? Plenty of volume and a good spread and in the money enough to bail without getting destroyed. Pick them up for $6.50 on the next $20 gold dip (Say $1,490 Gold) and dump them for $22.50 at Gold $1,650, C-Wave top. If Gary is right, then that’s 250% to the top.
Thanks MrMiyagi. I’m just dipping back into miners now. When Gary makes his portfolio change, I think I’m going to go DGP and just a bit of GDX/XGD.TO to ride the rest of the c-wave. I still don’t like the volume of HBU.TO and just watching it today vs DGP it barely moves. I think I’m going to have to change more USD to get into DGP.
Folks the only thing that is happening with miners is they’ve been trying to discount a daily cycle correction for the past two weeks. They’ve been early.
Eventually gold will put in the cycle low and then gold and miner will be off to the races.
“I do not own any miners. I am trading exclusively AGQ and will be following your lead to switch from gold to silver but not until you make your move.”
Obviously I meant to say “switch from SILVER to GOLD”
Gary, I intend to put a small percentage of my portfolio into OTM SLV puts when the C-Wave is over. Assuming the D-Wave regresses to the 200 dma I will choose a strike price above that mark when I purchase. I’m looking at July for a strike date. Will you cover a put purchase for your subscribers? I realize that you recommend never shorting a bull but limiting my risk with options and keeping my size small feels like the right way to go about it. Thanks.
Can you walk through the amount per 100K in the portfolio like you did with the SLV DITM calls?
Let’s say it’s 20K per 100K in GLD options. What are you doing with your cash? Are you going to be riding the SLV calls too and thus be 200% or more invested.
Not really rocket science and no set strategy, it’s really just a hybrid version of Gary’s cycles/trades, but with applying a little more leverage and risk. The main difference has been just investing in Silver at a 6x (average) rate (using DIM’s). Buying mainly fairly deep in the money calls, buying dips aggressively and buying some at the money calls (15%) and a small percentage (5%) of OTM calls at INT lows only.
The real key is not getting scared of the leverage, but only buying (for the most part) the bulk at the INT low and adding at daily cycle lows. Ignoring the wiggles is key (accounts can move 10% plus on volatile days) and ride the calls within Gary’s cycles, they are key! It really helped that he nailed BOTH INT cycle bottoms, almost to the day! When he called it, I just went big and held.
I was only ever fully invested twice, towards the top last Dec and right at the last daily cycle top, I then sold most of it when Silver hit that $41-$42 mark. Most other times it’s around 20-50% cash, it varies with Gary’s cycles, closing calls as it gets heated and near timing bands for cycle lows and adding heavy right at the dip.
I know Gary wouldn’t approve, but he is one hell of a market timer, I figure I will bet on that.
For example now I got out thinking we were going to top, I had to much leverage. I missed most of this last two weeks. But if we drop hard and print an overdue cycle low, I will know its relatively clear to invest freely and heavy. Hope that explains it?
For the GLD, I’m thinking about 20% or in your example, $20k. If we get the Silver correction and daily low, it will be a good percentage in SLV, say $60k in your example. I will look for something special with the remainder $20k, seeing that this might be the final cycle for some time. Maybe a good chuck of ATM SLV’s and GLD’s. I will keep 10% free to start adding to a Put hedge and eventual D-Wave play.
So basically you are taking up to 90% of your portfolio and buying 100% options with that cash?
20% GLD, 60% SLV (if we get a daily cycle low, clearly printed) and the other 10-20 cash or other “lottery” picks?
So what you do is way more aggressive that what Gary recommends, obviously.
I have one account I can get nuts with, the other one I would be on the street begging for food if I blew it out. BUT, I would like to add some juice to it and quite frankly I sick and tired of these freaking miners.
Yes with 90% invested that’s WAY above and mainly in preparation for a final blow off, BUT I wont be adding a thing without a nice correction in Silver, just to be sure. I feel more comfortable adding the GLD with a little $20-$30 drop to mark a cycle low.
Well that’s just my plan for now, it might not be what happens, I tend to make decisions on the fly, depending on my feel for the action.
JAYHAWK: I saw your earlier “triangle breakout” chart of the HUI. And your remark that if HUI closed under the top line, you “might be scratching your head.”
As you saw, there were some excellent comments by Gary about HUI in tonight’s letter.
I’m in the camp that firmly believes that we have farther to go in this daily cycle low. I think it’ll be 1480 – 1475 sometime on Wednesday or Thursday (basically, the pivot that Gary has focused on).
If that happens (and I think it has a very high probability), the intraday bottom that HUI hit on April 18 should become the left shoulder of an inverse head and shoulders, which means the low on Wednesday or Thursday would be the (lower) head at about 560 – 555.
But Gary’s plan is an excellent one — setting a trade trigger for just above that pivot. I’m just going to do some watching for a low at the beginning and the end of the trading day on Wednesday, and the beginning of the day on Thursday.
I just wanted to throw in “my 2 cents worth”, so you don’t get too worried if HUI closes under that breakout triangle. I believe it’s a sure thing it will.
Steven: I just don’t know re AGQ. I have dry powder as I sold 1/2 my AGQ at the opening today. Looks like we have blown out for at least a few days and do expect a sharp dip, but “tomorrow?” Often an item will fight its way back into a reversal candle, and that’s the best time to short it (I am NOT suggesting shorting AGQ!) e.g. something closes at 50 and the next day opens at 55, then closes at 45. The day after it rallies to 53 (late-comers thinking they are getting a bargain). You can short it there with a stop at 55+ for a low-risk, high-probability-to-work short. Seems to me that Gary’s daily cycle low and gold at 1480-90 is coming this week.
Rob, I think there could be more downside. Since investors will be nervous before the Fed meeting on wednesday, they will exit before. (What will happen right after is impossible to say, since that depends of the outcome of the meeting of course).
In addition, down to the gold pivot Gary’s mentioned has not been reached yet. & The miners are weaker than the metals, signalling bit further weakness.
After 28 April is seasonally statistically very strong for miners and gold. Check the seasonal charts. So post that date this should recover.
The previous link seems not to have worked, try again:
Transparent layover. Very similar topping actions then and now.
Note how the trendline breaks were afterwards tested in both, with long dojis, and the congestions below the trendline before the breaks (after which the runaways started) in both.
Any thoughts on the incredible more weakness in silver and gold in the aftermarket? How low do you think silver will go before we bottom and how long? Even guesses are appreciated!
Folks remember the trigger is an attempt to pick a bottom. It may work perfectly or it may be early. If you want to have better odds of little to no draw down then wait for a swing low.
Over the past hour Zero Hedge has been inundated with reader comments notifying us that Ampex has, validating the earlier post speculating about a possible silver shortage at the metals distributor, launched a “reverse ïnquiry” in which it will pay “you $3.00 over the current spot price of Silver for your Silver American Eagles. ANY year, ANY quantity!” and “We will pay you $38.00 over the current spot price of Gold for your Gold American Eagles. ANY year, ANY quantity!” So aside from this first public confirmation that one of the biggest wholesale retailers of precious metals is now inventoryless, we can certainly see why Asia has decided to take silver down in the afterhours electronic session.
I didn’t highlight that post as a sign of manipulation. I was just point out that Ampax is offering to purchase all silver eagles at $3.00 over spot. Up until now, most dealers would purchase eagles from you, but at a discount to spot. I was just highlighting the shortage of inventory….not the supposed china manipulation.
I inquired about selling back to Kitco in the past and they were offering a discount at the time. I just checked their website now and they are currently offering about $1.50-$2.00 over spot, so I stand corrected.
BTW, the CME raised silver maintanence margins by 9%, so this could explain some of the weakness afterhours.
Just so you know, Gary’s work is based on gold cycles. Silver will follow gold. instead of trying to pick a number for silver, look at the gold silver ratio. Presently it is 32.5…so take the gold price target and figure out possible ranges for the ratio and that will give you a range where silver will go. So for 1480 gold and ratio staying the same gives a silver price about 45.53..if the ratio goes higher to say 34 at the same gold price then look for 43.52
Now granted that is a two dollar difference, but it gives you an idea where the price might head. Last night I think we got below 31 on the ratio. The point I am getting at is that it is difficult to say if gold is X price then silver will be Y price. it will vary on which direction gold is moving and which direction the G/S ratio is moving. last august I think the ratio was in the 60’s. I think before the C wave is over we will be below 30..28?, 26? 20? one can’t know for sure and what price that will be who knows. But my thinking was 1650 gold at G/S ratio of 30 is 55.00 dollar Silver. I don’t know if this helps you or confuses you even more. just something to think about.
i bought some silver back right here not because i think its the bottom but i dont want to get cought with my pants down having sold all of it last night. I am happy with being able to save about $3.5 of the price with the trade last night. No need to get too greedy!
Interestingly, when I tried to buy DGP I was notified that it was “not authorized for online trading”. The grand conspiracy at work, perhaps?
I can’t remember if it was in my Fidelity or TD acct., but the first time I went to buy DGP I got a similar message. All I had to do was go into my acct settings and change my profile from “growth investor” to “speculator”. It is crazy how the brokerages try to protect us from ourselves.
Happened to me with AGQ also in an acct I manage for a family member. The one that really gets me is when they deny letting me buy calls or puts for that acct. They don’t want me to blow out the acct. How kind of them to protect me like that. 🙂
I have a small Fidelity account, but do most of my trading in a TOS account. I was concerned about a takedown this morning before the open, so I checked on extended hours in both accounts. TOS allows extended hours trading starting at 8am eastern, but Fidelity you can trade beginning at 7 eastern.
I had an SLV position, both shares and calls that I intended to sell. When SLV started dropping before 8 eastern this morning, I logged into my Fidelity account thinking I’d hedge my SLV position with ZSL on the Fidelity. When I tried to place an order, first I had to change to Speculator (for the ZSL), and then I get a message saying that in order for me to do extended trading I need to speak to a representative to get “authorized” for extended hours. So I call the number, tell them what I want to do, they pass me off to a “trade expert” and I hang there on hold, watching the price of SLV tick down. I finally gave up and hung up the phone at about 5 till 8 eastern because once the clock struck 8, I wouldn’t need the hedge anymore.
That’s one thing I do like about TOS. They pretty much let you do whatever you want, they figure you’re an adult, you can make your own trading decisions!
David with the flea, You have me baffled. If you bought and have been holding from the 09 low (my hero), and are worried about a crash eating your profits, why were you buying today?
pima: I don’t think it’ll maintain this rate of descent. It’ll probably get some bounce in Asia.
These declines into the daily cycle low are usually 3-5 day affairs, and I’d guess that this one’ll go through the end of the Fed meeting and maybe into Thursday morning.
Basic Elliott Wave says the decline will be in 3 waves. Counting on GLD 30-minute chart, you’ll probably see one wave down (starting Monday and probably ending Tuesday), a bounce up, and then the final wave down, ending probably Wednesday or Thursday.
I will add to my positions based on what gold does. If we get close to the target area, say within 5 dollars or so I will add silver at that time. That assume it falls closely to the parameters laid out in the Plan. I am not too worried about catching the exact bottom. I don’t freak out over draw downs, plus I have really strong status with my current positions so that helps. my guesstimate and it is only a guess, is that the ratio won’t go higher than 35, so probably 42.50-43 might be lowest we go on Silver, for this daily cycle bottom.
I see we have a nice sell off happening now and I like this price area, but it is overnight. I will wait until at least the AM EST to see what happens in Europe and Crimex in NY. If there is more downside it will happen when these markets are open.
Raz..you made out well selling at the high last night and getting those positions back 4 + dollars lower..good one.
Fifty percent of my portfolio is in AGQ. I was waiting for AGQ to reach $50 before I was to sell my entire AGQ holding. I don’t want to risk a big one day drop similar to April 2006. I am getting worried because you did not mention AGQ in your report tonight and silver is dropping fast afterhours. Is the plan to continue holding AGQ until silver reaches $50? Thanks.
Leilani, Gary did not mention silver because he is confident that in a week silver will be higher than today. $45 should be a support area people will defend tonight.
Well, this is fun. Got out of all silver related positons this morning in premarket at 48.37. Still have my GDXJ and GDX.
In the morning I will initiate 1/4 of my DGP allotment. I’ll initiate another 1/4 on a daily swing low. And another 1/2 on a breakout in gold.
I’ll also likely reload a bit of AGQ (maybe a 5-8% position just because I’m in love). Boy, it feels good to get one right.
Why did I sell today? I study Jesse Livermore. Over and over I read his writings, and the writing of others about him. Today felt like a spike that would be a Jesse Livermore sell day.
Anyway, I now think silver will see 60/oz in the next month or so. But, Gary’s wisdom rings true for me, I don’t want to risk getting caught in its imminent downdraft. I really think today was a beautiful and lesser model of what the C-Wave top will look like, except miners and gold will be participating in a much more significant way.
you guys holding stocks and ETFs are lucky the prices were still high when New York opened. I thought it would open closer to 37 and then drop from there.
Thanks for the HUI pep talk. I know that the HUI can looked like a really screwed up chart and still explode higher. I just don’t want a repeat of being stuck in dragging miners again while the underlying metal rockets to the MOON! I plan on a better balance this time around.
/SI
You guys watching it backtest the channel it broke out of? (Also right on the 10 EMA now)
The FIBs on the daily cycle are also interesting. The 43.60ish level looks good or a 50% support where the 20 EMA is rising towards.
I bought and stayed 100% long from the bottom in fall ’08 until last week, when I lightened up considerably on my AGQ holdings.
I redeployed some of that money today into gold via UGL and gold miners. I still own all my silver miners.
If we have a particularly nasty day tomorrow, I may buy back some of that AGQ in addition to UGL.
Though I have always remained 100% long, I have often ditched stocks that were underperforming, like JAG. The only stocks I have held continuously since 08 are SLW and EXK.
And it is a beetle — a gold bug — though I like the sound of “David with the flea” just as well.
I have mentioned this a couple times, but it plays into Gary’s thesis and needs emphasis.
The stock market will top prior to commodities. As Gary has tried to drill home the stock market has likely topped. Given normal proceedings, we will see the mkt in a topping pattern like the one we see now.
As that unfolds, the PM’s will finish the C wave, and the crumble of all assets will begin in earnest.
To clarify: I was buying gold today as part of a switch out of silver.
Gary has announced that he plans to do the same — I’m just doing it early because the weakness in silver miners seemed to presage a big tumble in silver.
Do any of you consider the TAX consequences of a silver or gold trust (“collection” rate?) or ETF, versus a miner “fund,” when trading? Or is it immaterial? Just wondering…thanks.
“Pick them up for $6.50 on the next $20 gold dip (Say $1,490 Gold) and dump them for $22.50 at Gold $1,650, C-Wave top”
Could you share the math on your projected buy and sell prices? I’ve done the conversion from gold prices to GLD prices for the strike but can’t get a handle on the 6.50 or 22.50 projections.
Newbie sub very happy to see the next stage of the plan is with less volatile gold. My platform here in the UK won’t do ETNs so DGP is unavailable to me. At the same time I am unwilling to forego the leverage with GLD. Is UGL really too illiquid? Thanks.
Slumdog, thx very much for your interesting commentaries to the comparison charts. The most important trait, both in this move and 1980’s, is the strong and very similar midway consolidations in both. That makes the total curve much more dynamic, perhaps acting as a kind of slingshot coil. For instance the 2006 parabola didn’t have such a major correction along the way.
Not hard numbers, back of the envelope math, to show approx returns.
For example $1,490 gold should be around $146 I believe which on a $140 call will sell for about $6.50. Gold at $1,650 is around $162 so the call will sell for little premium above $22.
Jabalong, the site you mentioned about Terry Laundry is the right one. He is a grand old man in TA. Marty Scwartz, who won all the trading competitions back in the 80s and 90s had high respect for him.
The T-theory time symmetri; Markets use the same time going up as it used going down. Thus both sides of the T are about equal. The left (down) side is the cash-buildup phase. He is good at timing the sp500 and he is free.
Gary, can you suggest a strike price for the July GLD options? There is no mention of this in your subscription service and the time frame is nearing when they must be bought. Also, I’d appreciate a strike price for SLV options and expiry date so that I could buy them when the cycle low comes in.
Shai Agassi, the founder of Better Place, the most sophisticated electric-car enterprise in the world, projects the ebullient confidence of a man facing a giant wave of money. “Within less than this decade the No. 1–selling car in the world will be the electric car,” he says. “It’s the biggest financial opportunity the world has ever seen. We’re seeing a $10 trillion shift in an industry in less than a decade. It’s the Internet, and add another zero.” http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20110426/wl_time/08599206697500
Are you ready for the revolution? Dow 36,000 baby!
Personally, I would be less worry about the tax consequences. In stock trading, most important is the superior returns and timing of entry and exit. Once you make consistent favorable returns, you end up better even on an after tax basis.
You mentioned you stayed long since 2008 on gold/silver. Would you share how you timed that bottom and what kept you long over the 18 months without worrying about hitting the tops?
Looking at parabolic charts, isnt it possible that as they climb steeper and steeper (forming an arc toward the top)their ‘higher lows’ become less of a pullback and therefore never even touch the lower trendline?
I ask because you (or Doc, but you agree)feel that for a cycle low, we look for a trendline break. I am wondering if in a parabolic rise…this may be one thing that fails at the end?
On Gold,the trendline from the march15 low to April 1 low,would lead to $1460,unless you change your trendline to include April 12’s higher low & draw right through April 1’s low.
So would a steeper climb effect cycle lows this way?
There are always some relatively new people stopping by here who have no idea what a ‘C Wave Top’ is, nor what to expect after that. Is this THEE top… or the top before a consolidation period lasting… how long? Thanks.
Alex, thx for posting the McEwen interview. Uxg is my largest position, aquired at 1$ and ever since then I’ve been following him closely, and hopeful for his management style. Since your pics and stocks-analysis have a very good track record here it is reassuring to know that one is in your portifolio too..
Beanie, Yes we will see electric cars phased in gradually over time, but it will be a long long process. They are still very expensive, don’t go very far on a charge, and electricity will never replace diesel fueling in the trucking industry.
Plus the whole infrastructure will have to be upgraded to support electric. That is a multi decade process.
It is a process that will have to occur before the next secular bull market can begin.
And no secular bull market can begin on a foundation of spiraling debt. One way or the other either through default and a deflationary depression or destruction of the currency and a hyperinflationary depression we will have to cleanse the system of this debt alligator.
Until that process is complete there can be no secular bull market in stocks. There will only be a secular bull market in gold as long as countries continue to debase currencies in the vain attempt to service debt by money printing.
History is crystal clear on this one. Never in the history of the world has money printing worked. Sometimes it works in the short term. Like the last two years and during the 03-07 period.
But as we saw money printing only makes the problem bigger so when the cancer breaks out it’s much worse than the time before.
We got a front row seat to that during the last leg of the secular bear as we watched the credit markets implode. Now we are getting a front row seat to the end result of Bernanke’s printing strategy. It’s causing commodity inflation. This will eventually collapse an already weakened economy and the next recession will begin.
Electric car won’t be the new thing. We would need something that uses less energy or no energy, or something with an ample supply of renewable energy to solve our energy problems. A shift back to the “horse and buggy” would work too, but that would be the result of energy extremes not by choice.
I heard some good things about algae, but still in infancy. If we get back off of oil and run to electric power we are actually making matters worse, since energy is a diminishing product. In order to produce electricity, we need x units of say coal. If that coal were used to power cars directly it would give more energy. We have limited supply of hydro, wind, and solar, so our next step is nuclear…and nuclear never is safe….never; it just showcases how desperate society is for energy when it needs to extract energy from one of the most dangerous processes on this planet.
I truly don’t believe the world markets will ever make “real” returns again, until the energy problem is solved. Constant up and downs as new bubbles are formed, but nothing in terms of true growth.
Gary, thank you for you comment regarding options :o) Maybe when the low has been identified you might post recommended option expiry dates and strike prices for GLD and SLV on your subscription site. Thank you again :o)
Are you folks kiddin me? Better Place already selling fully electric cars for $25,000. They have the infrastructure technology that can be deployed across the nation rather quickly and it’s just a matter of whether we want to invest in it.
We can save so much money when we don’t use gasoline. And that can easily pay the national debt. We save on no longer needing oil imports and we save on government subsidies (for which the oil industry gets $2 trillion per year). America can pay its debt easily, leaving a huge surplus.
In my opinion, it’s a race against time. Electric car mega boom (Dow 36,000)….or US Dollar collapse (Gold 36,000).
I agree with you that it’s the sellers of options who make the money over the long term. That said, however, you CAN buy deep in the money options for leverage and do well with them in a bull market. And if you have a way to be reasonably confidant that a low is in place (SMT premium!), you can make money buying other options (at or even out of the money) as well. Poly has used this strategy several times and is getting mind boggling returns.
Actually selling options isn’t a fool proof strategy either. For the most part you will make a small amount of consistent money and then out of the blue a big move will cost you all of those profits.
Selling options is kind of like shorting in that your risk is unlimited.
The correct way to use options is to substitute DITM options for shares.
You control risk in the event you are wrong on direction and you will garner a much better return on invested capital if you are correct on direction.
Your posts have helped me in the past too,so thx and you’re welcome.
I followed Ron McEwen (I think) in 2005 because of his mngmnt of GG , and also took over as chairman and CEO of MNEAF when he left Goldcorp. (I was in MNEAF 2006-2007,and trade it now) With him running UXG, I would expect good things too.
That statement is far from the truth. Buying slv July 37’s and 38’s back in mid-feb. was the best investment I ever made. You are never going to get 600 – 1000% returns selling options. Only wish I had bought more, but I am already salivating for the end of the next “B” wave.
Okay, if you guys are only talking about DEEP in the money options I would maybe agree with that. But I’d say that 90% of small investors who buy options do not buy deep in the money options. And 98%+ of people reading this will not buy DITHM options. They will gamble. And they will lose badly over time. I don’t think it’s even wise to mention options. They can ruin a person’s entire life.
No argument there. Most people use options for leverage and those people will eventually destroy their account. There are never any exceptions to that rule.
Good for you but you are gambling. And one day your luck will run out. You need to be honest with yourself that you are gambling. Gambling is like crack. Once you get hooked your are in big trouble.
As long as one enters the position realizing they might lose it all it is easy to control the risk. I never used more than 10% of my portfolio, probably less than 5% until I had strong hand status. That small amount sure juiced my returns though. It is true options can be very difficult to win with, but in a “C” wave they are magic!
the electric cars are the wave of the future but they have a long way to go. It could really help us get off foreign oil.
The problem with them is the battery which cost 8000 or more and it is based on the same technology as the laptop batteries. And we all know how long those last!!!
I saw some promising research of a lithium battery that was developed using nanotechnology which allowed a 10 fold increase in the amount of energy store. It is probably going to take at least 10 years to manufacture something like this on a large scale.
I’m not going to talk about options anymore. It’s probably not healthy (for people evesdropping) to even mention options. You do not need to even use options to make your first million in the market. So why even bother. It makes no common sense. The risk is too high. Not only the risk of bad timing but the constant risk of going overboard and using too much money. If a person can’t trade his way to a million dollars using straight stock, then he probably cannot trade his way to a million dollars by any means (especially not with options). Anway, good luck all.
beep
Leave it to Gary to keep thinking of ways to help his subscribers, even on a Friday night!
Gary: you are a champion.
Now, come on gold, give us a nice tasty sale!
What if Monday is a big up day for gold (1 to 2%)?
Does the trigger need to be modified every day?
Thanks, guys, for pointing out NUGT. Didn’t know about that one.
But wait a sec….
Isn’t it a Direxion ETF? Doesn’t matter the liquidity does it?
It’s not like a micro cap where you need a buyer to sell your shares, right?
Same as AGQ, shouldn’t it be? They use the inflow and outflows to buy or sell the derivatives.
Well, I guess I could say same as HUI.
Yo Basil,
Hey, welcome back. Here’s wishing you big profits in the coming weeks and months.
Hot Rod,
The trigger is based on a pivot. Take a look at the chart again and you’ll see that it won’t need to be adjusted depending on what gold does on Monday.
Is AGQ a 2x or 3x?
DAVID
I think I didnt quite make my point clear, so I will just rephrase it. I wasnt trying to say that NUGT could have ‘as much’ volume as SLV ( thats dreaming) 🙂
I meant to say the volume on SLV Increases about 5x this wk (from the 20 million avg daily in Jan and Feb, to the last couple of days being near 80 million) as the rush of buyers jumps in at the top.
So I was implying that maybe the volume on NUGT would increase 5x from its avg daily now, when the blow off top would arrive and you’d be looking to exit.
But Hotrod cancels that saying liquidity isnt an issue anyways 🙂
Pima,
Thanks. Yes, I get that part, but if gold goes up another $20 before pulling back, then in a runaway move the $35 correction won’t make it back to that pivot?
That pivot is a correction based on Friday close (don’t want to put #’s because of premium content).
Skeptic – it’s 2x
wait a minute…
From 20 million to 80 million, and I called it 5x as much??? NICE basic math skills!! Man, gotta watch those dirty goose martinis!
And I use real money when I trade?? Yikes!!
I wasn’t sure with the holiday today if the COT report would come out. Looks like it did:
Gold:
http://snalaska.net/cot/current/charts/GC.png
Silver:
http://snalaska.net/cot/current/charts/SI.png
Silver report very strangely is quiet. Not much movement at all in any area despite the huge rise.
Gold report may be telling the story.
Commercials – Huge $13k more short contracts
Large Specs – Immense $14K additional LONG contracts
Small SPecs – $4k additional long and $4k additional short
Hmmmmmm. WHo are the “large specs” anyway?
Are the banks going short and also taking the long side of the trade in their “personal” accounts?
If it were not for the Commercial shorting, Gold would be going ballistic.
Thanks Gary for the post, and it is in a beautiful channel, as well.
Gary, kudos on the last couple of posts, I like your latest plan and will happily follow you.
Had just been looking at the silver chart and worrying about its dizzying rise. My only thought about $50 as a trigger is that all kinds of people are probably watching for that level, so I might head for the door around $49.
In terms of the reallocation to gold, I notice that DGP is an ETN, while UGL for instance is an ETF. Though DGP is well established, have read that ETNs can be riskier vehicles. Anyone have any insight on this?
Lastly, Gary if you’re expecting HUI to massively outperform gold on this C-wave finale, will you be considering reallocating any of your money from DGP and/or SIL/SLW to some gold miners? If not, why not? If so, any thoughts on NUGT as seems like one that would be up your alley with the 2x GDX return.
Thanks!
Gary,
If there is a 3-6 dollar correction on the price of silver will this also have any effect on the miners. They already took a heavy beating and I hope they don’t go further down!
Excellent, perfect game plan Gary. Exactly what I was hoping to hear!
Thank you!
One reoccurring theme I have noticed here, is so many people that insist on coming up with their own strategy that is going to beat a man that is at the top of his game.
Now I know from reading here we have a very wise group of people, but we now have a situation where silver has gone parabolic. Gary is once again trying to lead the horses to water, yet so many are stating their own better strategies.
Maybe these strategies will work out, but from the last run we had, so many people were saying they wished they had listened. A second chance is upon us, and I hope people take advantage.
I am not at all trying to take away from the great minds here. What I am saying is that you are listening to a man that has studied and prepared for this for many years. Take full advantage and give your own research a chance to catch up.
Just thinking with my fingers. Take it for what it is worth.
Anyone concerned that silver gapped up $1 today even though the major markets were closed? We this continues, we should hit $50 by Tuesday.
Niven,
Why do you care where the miners go next week? Are you going to sell at the bottom of a correction even though you know that at the C-wave top the miners will be much much higher?
Perfect example. The miners took a big hit in March. If one sold into that pullback they missed the move to new highs that unfolded over the next three weeks.
Nitro, The volume is in New York. Holiday trading does not change the big picture much unless we have some exogenous event.
Kitco had the spot market only up 7 cents today. I doubt we are going to see silver gap up $1.00.
More likely that big money will sell into the Fast Money recommendation. If there was ever a bell ringing at a short term top that was it on Thursday evening.
I know Gary believes that miners will outperform gold in the final leg of the c-wave.
Can anyone confirm that Gary said he would still be in miners after he switches out of silver?
I ask because I have missed some posts on the blog. Apologies in advance.
I’d say you could be right there, Brian
I can confirm that I have no intention of selling any of my mining ETF’s or SLW prior to the C-wave top.
You know guys, Brian has it right (no offense to the Marine’s Mom & wife),
I paid good money, okay, okay, it wasn’t much compared to other doofus guides who lead one astray, but I did, and I intend to follow Gary’s lead, since I have heard from other subs, over and over again, how they have profited from his guidance.
Sure you can modify the plan to suit your risk tolerances, but you should stay the course.
I am very aggressive with my money, wanting it to work as hard for me, as I worked to get it (boy, if that isn’t an Americanism, I don’t know what is) but I have reduced exposure in options, adjusted positions Gary’s profile and am waiting for a drop or slight correction to POUNCE and make a homerun. And it will all be based at Gary’s direction, calculations and prognistications.
(Feel free to quote me, but give me credit)
This comment has been removed by the author.
Thanks Gary.
Will you be increasing your position in miners when you switch out of silver?
When you referenced the hit taken by miners in March, were you talking about 2006?
Ooops! I guess you were talking about March last month.
Sorry Gary – my bad!
Thanks Gary,
I guess I shouldn’t have to worry too much when there is still a lot of potential growth for the miners.
Gary,
If you’re saying that smart/big money will sell into the Fast Money recommendation then doesn’t it follow that silver will be up first for them to sell into or just at these levels but with increased volume?
Also, do you agree with Adami that we will have a $7-$8 day one day soon?
Gary,
If a plan is to sell AGQ when silver hits $50 then I want to enter a GTC order for AGQ when silver hits $50. Where do you think AGQ will be when silver hits $50?
Thanks.
Folks,
I thought I’d publish some data for the last 2 c-wave tops for gold, silver and miners. Note that their repective c-wave tops might differ by a day. I am showing the data for these 3 corresponding to the date for gold’s c-wave tops.
Gold C-Wave Top 17Mar08 12May06
$Gold High 1032.45 730.05
200 dma 780.12 523
% above dma 32.35% 39.59%
$Silver High 21.34 15.03
200 dma 14.5 9.14
% above dma 47.17% 64.44%
$HUI 519.68 390.68
200 dma 396.47 276.27
% above dma 31.10% 41.41%
Would a better name for the CNBC show “Fast Money” be “Lose Money Fast”?
Gary,
I’d love to get your thoughts as to how you’d play your hand if you were in my situation. Despite having never rode the PM bull in the past and against everyone’s repeated warnigs, I thought that I could get cute and actually trade around this thing. I liquidated my entire silver position this week, because I was convinced that we’d rollover and I wanted to sell into strength. Well, now I’m pissed that I gave up my strong hand and am questioning my move already. Someone made the point earlier, but I do think one needs to make their own mistakes to internalize these lessons.
Anyways, now I’m very nervous about throwing everything back in at your trade trigger, just in case it turns into something biggger. How would you suggest scaling back in at this point or would just push the entire pile of chips back into the pot?
PST
My 2 cents is to get back in now. I also tried to get cute and I lost a lot of money for a guy like me. The truth is you might not get a pullback, and this thing will keep going and you’ll never get back in.
Here’s the deal if you get in now you should make money in 6 weeks. The fact that your indecisive sounds like your still trying to be cute(Greedy).
I made the same mistake, and I really hope I never let it happen again. If you get a 30 point dip on Monday consider yourself very lucky to jump back in there.
I really doubt silver will gap up $10. Maybe if it was selling at $100 to $150, but not at $47. That is way too large of a gap. Adami would probably like to trigger a retail trader gap so he can sell his position into it but I really doubt it.
PST,
As long as you continue to think like a trader you are going to continue to make these mistakes.
Listen to what you said. You are afraid to re-enter because you might not time it perfectly and you might have to hold through a draw down.
I can guarantee you won’t time it perfectly and that you will have to hold through a draw down. But I can tell you that the percentage gain from $46.70 to $50 is still 7%. In AGQ it’s going to be a little over 15%. You are going to make at least that much no matter what kind of draw down you have to hold through unless you think this is the top of the C-wave.
Are you really saying that you refuse to make 15% because you might have to weather a draw down first?
Hi, Gary, do you still think AGQ is better choice than miners at this stage of C wave?
Hot Rod,
Good point. You’re right. Not sure what will be the plan if we see gold go up 20 bucks on Monday.
Jin,
I own them both.
Matrix,
See my response to PST.
PST, Just watch for the day lows on prices and get back in as much as you can. I was totally out prior to Wed last week, I got back in with Gary’s recommendation on SLW Options along with GLD and AGQ and already back up over 15 to 20% in my accounts. I still have 25% more to get back in on this next drawdown, but if it doesn’t go down 25 – 35 points, I will put the rest in on DGP on day low prices. Just get back in!
Gary,
Original target on AGQ was 350-400. Are we moving that up or 400 is still accurate?
Thanks Haggarty and Gary. I think this trade was driven more by fear of giving all my returns back than greed. Again, having never invested in precious metals, I didn’t think that we would see a ramp like last week until the final leg of the C-wave. My thinking was that I would rather forego any remainging profits in this daily cycle, rather than get caught in a drawdown, and then get reinvested for the last parabolic move higher. Seemed conservative at the time. Its just the explosiveness of the move last week caught me by surprise. I need to just resist the urge to try to time it again and get reinvested.
Thanks at ease. Good advice.
AGQ is a derivative of silver. It will rise along with silver until silver tops.
Having a little fun today with my new Stock Charts subscription (can’t believe I waited until now to sign up).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=W&st=2000-01-01&en=2011-06-30&id=p39229906016&a=232160778
Not sure if you can see this one, it is a long term silver weekly with an upper trend line from a peak in 2002 (not sure if it was a C wave top) through 2004, 2006 and to now.
This channel can only be drawn on a log chart – the arithmetic doesn’t align.
What is interesting is that the C wave top in 2008 did not make it up to the trend line. Could this have been because of Bear Sterns?
If….we make it up to it on the weekly this time, we have some room – looks like around $60????
I was not able to figure out how to raise the Y axis on stock charts, it only maxes out at the price point high.
One thing is for sure, we are in the middle of an unprecedented move. It is obvious that at some point there likely will be some major draw down, but where is it going to come?
With the global buying pressure, it may not happen under normal fundamentals. In my opinion it is going to take a MAJOR, MAJOR global event to do it. I don’t think it will just roll over.
I’m just too young and inexperienced to be able to envision the possibilities here.
Good post Gary. I think $1,650 is too conservative, that less than 10% from this level. A 20% and more final daily has precedence and would not stretch us too far above the moving averages. That would be $1,800.
I know you like moving away fom Silver due to a great of a huge drawdown, but if Gold is going on a runaway, don’t you expect Silver to continue it’s recent correlation? Seem like getting caught in another 15% might just be a small price go pay to ride Silver to the top.
better looking cot reports in george’s free weekly email:
http://www.futuresemail.com/cot/weekly.htm
if you click on the individual charts here you get the cot:
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx
at ease….,
You going into GLD and DGP now rather than ride more silver and transfer later? Reduce transactions?
Poly,
I was thinking the same thing as you, but if silver does have a very nasty correction and then begins to rise, what are the odds that it significantly exceeds that first high? A lot of risk for little reward?
I’m just thinking out loud here.
The average leg up in gold is roughly 24%. This intermediate leg began at the Jan. bottom of $1307. A move to $1650 would equate to a 26% move. Right in line with history.
It’s probably wishful thinking to expect more than another 150 points in gold in only 5-6 weeks. It’s taken 9 weeks to go from $1400 to $1500.
Brian,
I’m not trying to beat Gary at his own game. It’s more about risk profile. For instance, I don’t do options or margin trading. It’s late in the game and I’d rather err on the side of caution.
That is, if you can call getting leveraged into gold at a parabolic top “caution” 😉
Gary,
150 is just 10% from here and 5 to 6 weeks is a long time. If that is the target, a runaway move is not needed to reach there. A runaway move will go much higher than that if it lasts that long.
Folks don’t forget that at the final top this is going to look like it’s going to go on forever. There will be countless reasons for why the dollar is going to 0 and gold and silver will just keep rising. Selling into those conditions will be the hardest thing we will do all year long. And if you don’t time it right (we won’t) the urge to get back in because you are missing some of the ride will be almost overwhelming. However those that do will get caught by the D-wave and if they are still heavily leveraged they will lose most if not all their gains.
We’re already starting to see signs that euphoria is beginning. At $1650 it’s going to be absolutely nuts.
Gary: Fantastic post on the “trade trigger”. Thanks. Wonderful analysis.
And I’m sure we’ll get that weakness next week, what with: options expiration on gold/silver, first notice day for taking delivery, a Fed meeting, and this over-extended rally.
This may’ve already been posted but: great post by Trader Dan on “top pickers” in silver trying to go short and just adding fuel to this rocket:
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/04/brief-consideration-of-silvers-open.html
Since many people seem to like to read their own meanings into my reports, let me be clear. Just because I expect gold to put in the next measured correction next week doesn’t mean one should sell positions. Many many people already got into trouble and missed last weeks big move for that very reason.
The trade trigger post is only for those that need to get back in. It in no way suggests someone that is already in do something foolish like exit.
Once the dollar hits a new 3-year low, it’ll be interesting to see how long it bases and what drives it upwards in a big multi-month bounce.
I doubt that it would base as long as it did back in the spring and summer of ’08. And, as for what will make it bounce this time, my guess is trouble in Spain shaking the Euro:
http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2010/12/lull-before-storm-whats-coming-in-2011.html
Gary,
I totally agree that as we climb here, hysteria will keep exploding especially over $1600, $1650, etc.
With all due respect, on the log chart of gold, $1650 might not look like a parabolic blow off top.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&st=2000-01-01&en=2011-06-30&id=p83320454345
Is this okay? A 20% move or so would be more of the range to “reach for the sky.”
On this chart, the only way $1650 will look parabolic is if we make the run right now and don’t look back (no weekly close correction) – put in a solid -4 week strong climb.
This will coincide with a May 20th employment report – and another theory I have that USD locks in embedded this week, tanks until the report and then it’s all over…
Please don’t take this a second guessing the “expert.” I’m just trying to figure out all the angles and options.
I likely won’t be selling all my AGQ and SLV options and am trying to determine what % I stay in (lottery play, etc.) and at what strikes.
One can always jigger the charts to get whatever desired result they want. I use purely percentages. At the 06 top gold stretched 24% above the 200 DMA. At the 08 top it stretched roughly 29%. At the 09 peak it moved 25% above.
The difference in these three with today is that now the 200 DMA is already rising steeply. There was a bit of a lag during the other times which explains the extreme stretch.
If the moving average continues to rise at it’s current rate then gold will be stretched about 20-22% above the 200 DMA if it tags $1650 in the next 5-6 weeks.
At that point not only is it too late in the intermediate cycle to hang around any longer but it’s also too stretched above the mean and in jeopardy of the D-wave profit taking event at any point.
Folks resign yourselves now to the fact that you aren’t going to catch the exact top, that you are going to leave some money on the table, but that none of that makes any difference in the long run because we will more than make up for it by catching the A-wave.
So I’m not familiar with conditional trades/triggers. The closest trigger I can find in Fidelity is the CBOE gold index (.GOX). Is there a way to make the trigger based on GLD? If not, how would I calculate the trigger in GOX that would be equivalent to the GLD trigger Gary posted? Thanks for any help.
David
So lets assume we get gold at 1650, and then get correction, how big will this correction be? back to 1300-1350 or even lower?
Dave,
Pretty much all trading platforms now have a trade trigger feature.
Just call your broker and ask him to walk you through setting up a conditional trade trigger order.
E,
The answer to your question is in the April 16th weekend report.
GARY, Thank you for the “game plan”. You have been just sooo accurate that I know the rest shall play out and we shall all be very happy.
ALEX, I appreciate your charts as I shall add to AG and EXK. The 3 months of miners consolidating from
their large gains was a valid point. ( Handsome couple….)
EVERYONE, This site is addictive and I have been trying to keep up with it. Thank you all for such informative postings.
Gary, do you have a contingency plan for if the D wave takes you by surprise? Comes way earlier than anyone expected? I mean, anything is possible right?
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Bob LH
Thanks for sharing your trade idea! I assume you will enter a bit early on this one. What are your initial thoughts on timing? Early June?
Thx again.
Dave,
I use Fidelity. If you’re in the conditional trade screen you have the option of choosing an Index OR a stock/ETF. There is a radio button for each. You probably have the Index one selected.
I hope everybody is enjoying their long, relaxing weekend.
Fine report, Gary. I mentioned I was looking at gold via DGP last week to buy into a pullback. This weekend I’ve also decided to put PHYS on the list as well, and although it is not leveraged, I should be comfortable putting the profits from the miners into it. I think Gary might be correct about the runaway move, so will take advantage and step into the $30 or so decline when it presents.
And I still like silver. It’s just more difficult to time an entry in a runaway market. I’m not counting on huge pullbacks, or at least, significant % pullbacks unless they only last a single day. I’ll be buying dips if they occur.
SB: Are you not worried that a “pullback” will turn into a mini-meltdown like 2006? It has had quite a ramp up and when the hot money decides to rush for the exit it may be a little like yelling “fire” in a crowded theater. At least, that’s my concern.
Also, in 2006 though silver was the place to be, gold actually outperformed in the final run up. Silver barely recaptured its high after the 17% down day.
Thoughts, anyone?
I’m leaning towards a gold focused play with a slash of juniors on the silver side like AG, EXK.
I’m looking at DGP, UGL, NUGT for core and some select gold mining stocks. I will keep a little powder dry for SLV calls for any dips that come up.
Any good gold miners folks like please share your ideas.
“splash of silver juniors”
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Gary posted: “We’re already starting to see signs that euphoria is beginning. At $1650 it’s going to be absolutely nuts.”
Kids, go over to Kitco’s silver forum and see the crazyness unfolding as well to a lesser extent on the gold forum.
Maybe browse down eBay alley and see if you can find silver for under 50$/oz.
This board here is where level headedness is prevailing.
This is the most balanced group out there, all the other blogs I read is total collapse of US $, food riots, new currency?
I am not sure will it happen or not, and how can you even plan for those kind of events, any feedback/comments?
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Interesting Article
http://www.businessinsider.com/rein-in-rampant-speculation-or-face-the-black-silver-swan-2011-4
Jayhawk,
XG is worth a look. It’s basically what GPL was a few weeks ago. That cuts both ways of course.
ANV and GORO are both interesting.
gary your wisdom continues to amaze me.
the only worry i have, is a very selfish one. That being you dont fall off one of these mountains you persist in climbing.
cant you switch hobbys to playing xbox, log rolling, or something/anything less dangerous please 😉
Francisco,
Good read, thanks!
Francisco,
Thanks for the article. I like reading the mainstream info for its spin.
All,
Does anyone remember “last time” in 2008, 2006, etc. during the big final rallies – with regards to the predictors of the “crashes?”
Everywhere you go now, everything you read is preparing you for a crash of epic proportions (Gary – you as well are nervous about it and trying – smartly – to skirt around it if it happens).
Well, isn’t the saying that if everyone expects it, it won’t happen (at lease the same way people expect)?
I remember in 2008 with Oil at 120, 130, 140 – Not many people were saying a crash was imminent or going to be of epic proportions, certainly not back below $100.
I’m just thinking out loud here. What should we make of this? Any statement such that “silver won’t crash” or “silver will just have a normal and healthy correction” makes one look naive, inexperienced or way too optimistic – not understanding market fundamentals.
So, is everyone going to be right this time? I have to believe the answer is yes, but the question is when.
i get it. uncle gary calls taxi for clarkatroid & friends at SMT at $1650 gold while the party still rages in the nightclub.
we all wake up without a hangover though, have a nice sleep in, then shower, change and let the good times roll again
Rod,
I can promise you that all you’ll hear at the top is people talking about JP Morgan’s short position and how it’s going to blow up.
Read the comments on Francicsco‘s posted link.
Just like the folks on Kitco’s forums. Silver/Gold will not go up indefinitely.
Piotr,
yes you are mixing stuff.
I don’t want to exit silver until it tags $50.
Clarkatroid, I think the courage, confidence and strength it takes to climb the rocks speaks of the character necessary for Gary to advise us as he has. May the Lord keep him safe as he lives life to the full!
Nima,
That’s what I expected to hear at a three year cycle low. As the dollar really starts to crash into the final low this end of the world talk will intensify. And of course this will only guarantee that the herd will get caught on the wrong side of the boat when that major bottom forms and the dollar rallies against all common sense and fundamentals.
There will be talk of manipulation, especially in the precious metal markets which are going to take a serious hit as the D-wave unfolds.
But of course this will have nothing at all to do with manipulation, it will just be the normal cycles running their course like they have for decades.
Hot Rod,
First off one article isn’t “everyone” predicting a crash.
Make no mistake, never in history has a parabolic rally like what silver is experiencing not ended in a crash. This one will end in a crash too.
That is virtually guaranteed by human nature. I’ll say it again. “action and reaction”
The D-wave is spawned by the extreme upside move at the C-wave top. The only way to avoid a severe D-wave is if the C-wave is very mild. That obviously isn’t the case. And as such you can bank on the D-wave being just as powerful on the downside as the C-wave was on the upside.
Turn the chart of silver upside down and you will get a pretty good idea of what the D-wave is going to do to the silver parabola.
Gary,
If we already have a good chunk of AGQ and SIL and going to eventually move to GLD anyways on your signal, should we just put any extra into gold and gold miners now and avoid extra transaction charges and possible whipsaw in silver?
Not yet comfortable with options.
Intern,
IMO we have about as close to a sure thing as one ever gets in this business in the silver market right now.
I just don’t think the buying will quit until silver at least tags $50. It will probably go higher but I think $50 is a given. I want to ride the rest of that move. Once I do then I will convert to gold.
Clark:
Oh good – glad you found my post…,
I use TDW only – always have.
But this month I sold about 1/2 the stuff that’s not tax protected in ISAs.
I’m pretty used to using IG Index [spread bet] and with the right control will continue there = tax free [I hope!]. I don’t trust the inland revenue to stop the capital gains tax hikes in the future.
Rather than using huge leverage on a small pile of money, I’m having a good sized hill of money with careful leverage. That way I maximise my sleepful nights and still make more than with TDWaterhouse brokers.
I buy physical from Chard & Co in your town!
Also ebay, thegoldbullion.co.uk [I think] and Baird & Co [London].
John
Here’s a short listing of some of my favorite gold miners. I do not yet own GORO or EGO. ANV has been the leader, but is stretched 50% above the 200 day ma. XG has been a moon shot ever since it was split out from XRA. NGD and UXG are buys on the expected pullback.
ANV
NGD
XG
UXG
IAG
EGO
GORO
AAU
GDXJ
Hi Poly,
Hope you had a good break…need to ask you a question …can I send you an email?
Gold and Silver UP in India on Saturday trading?
https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?p=1320750#post1320750
Question for Options Experienced Traders,
The formula I found and am using to compute “leverage” is:
= [(Underlying Security Price * Delta) – Option Premium] / Option Premium
When I compute an OTM SLV option (SLV 50 July Calls) I get = [(45.53*.3584) – 1.95] / 1.95 = 7.4x
When I compute a GLD option (GLD 146 July Calls) I get = [(146.74*.5548) – 4.8] / 4.8 = 16.0x
??????
So, an OTM SLV call, which is 10% OTM is less than half of a GLD option already at the money?
A GLD 140 July Call computes to 12.1x while an SLV 60 July call computes to 9.7.
How is it possible that one can get much more leverage with an DITM GLD call than a super-OTM (lottery play) SLV call?
The way I understand leverage is a multiplier on the underlying security move. If this is mathematically correct then every 1% move in GLD is HUUUUUUUGE.
Gary,
Was this a factor in your strategy shift?
Gary,All I just don’t see a strong enough risk/reward for people currently in cash (I’m one of those btw) to jump back in for a move to $50
Yes, potentially one can gain 7% or 15% in AGQ but also the chance of a 2006 style stampede is equally high where people can lose double the gain…
Or am I missing something?
(disclosure: I am investing/trading with family money so my risk tolerance is low)
Thanks
Hello Group,
Wouldn’t a huge drawdown in silver, similar to that of 2006, take down SLW with the same ferociousness?
If so, is Gary keeping SLW in his portfolio because it barely moved over the past month, and even after a serious correction in silver, SLW will still end up much higher than today?
If you want a good laugh, go check out Turd Ferguson’s latest “Wicked Witch of the Precious Metals” video.
This series stars Blythe Masters, the current head of global commodities at J.P. Morgan Chase, and therefore the chief manipulator of the silver market.
She is the Wicked Witch, and works within the Death Star (J.P. Morgan). She is always in her office plotting with her chief assistant in manipulating silver — Ruprecht (fictional). He is the top Flying Monkey in her stable of Flying Monkeys who trade silver for her.
This one isn’t as funny as some of the older ones. And I wouldn’t pay much attention to Turd’s prediction in here that silver will go down in June only to go up to 67 or something soon after. I know Gary and Doc have the D-wave decline nailed.
Enjoy! And if you like this, go back and look at some of the earlier ones, which I think are funnier.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WhcFI-vzNXk
Silverman,
That was Friday (yesterday).
For some reason, they don’t go for Easter there.
Hot Rod,
To calculate leverage divide your total portfolio by the price of SLV (if you want to figure leverage for silver). Lets say you have a $100,000 account. If you divide $100,000 by the current price ($45.53) you could buy 2196 shares. That would be considered 100% invested.
At the close on Friday the July 40 call options on SLV were priced at $685. So if you wanted to control the same 3000 shares with options then you would buy 30 call options.
At $685 per 1 contract it would cost you $20,550 to control the same amount of shares. So with DITM calls you can be basically 100% invested with 1/5th the capital.
Now if you wanted to be leveraged or extremely leveraged you could in theory buy roughly 150 July 40 call options with your $100,000. You would then be leveraged about 5:1.
If you are really reckless you could buy about 1800 July 48 out of the money call options and raise your leverage to roughly 60:1.
However if you are wrong and the market doesn’t do what you think it will do or it doesn’t do it in the time frame you need it to then those OTM options will quickly go to zero and you will lose all $100,000 and will have destroyed your account.
Gary,
Can you estimate the price of AGQ when silver hits $50. I would like to put a GTC order at or close to that price.
Thanks!
Couldn’t have explained it better myself Gary, you should add this example on your premium site.
Steven,
Just calculate a 15% return from Friday’s close on AGQ and you should be pretty close.
CORRECTION: I wasn’t paying attention to the details of what Turd was saying in this video. I was laughing at all the dialogue.
He is saying that he thinks silver will go to 67 by late June, so he’s not dissing the D-wave or mentioning it. That seems too high to me, and I think the C will top by June 10-17 at the very latest, but, that’s just my estimate.
Go have a laugh. These really are well done and funny.
I just realized I mistakenly said 3000 shares of SLV when it should have been 2200. The example I gave will be a little off but you still get the basic idea of how to calculate leverage.
We will see more and more of these absurd silver price targets as this continues. Sadly all these people will get caught at the top and then end up riding the crash all the way down.
P.S. Turd is saying silver will go down some in MAY and then up to 67 in late June.
Just trying to correct my original post to fairly represent what he is saying.
Gary,
Great explanation on Options.
If and when we get into a runaway move, how much more attention will you give to the “emotional or hysterical” aspect of the moves & for an exiting decision?
Exits are based on cycles and technicals more than sentiment, because sentiment will reach extremes and stay extreme for several weeks prior to a top.
Gary: agreed. And, to emphasize a point that you’ve made all along — the drop in the dollar is driving this. And that is going to find a base and then go higher out of the 3-year low.
Looking at a couple of the larger gold miners during the 2008 run-up and pull-back: both PAAS and AUY dropped 80% from their respective highs. Neither have re-gained those highs, although PAAS is close. Gary, or any of the more seasoned PM bloggers know if there’s more to those stories? Lots of talk about the jr’s but not much about the sr’s for the final stages..I’m sure gary’s mentioned it here or on the premium site before but I don’t recall..can anyone share the reason?
Often miners will float secondary offerings that will depress price. Juniors are some of the worst offenders of this practice. It’s one of the reasons I don’t waste time trying to pick individual miners.
Gary: After the silver 17% drop in 2006 silver spent the rest of the move clawing its way back up and slightly exceeded that former high. Gold, in the meantime, rallied quite well as silver fought its way back to its high. This seems reasonable this time as well since silver sentiment is now at an extreme level and gold is (remarkably) neutral. That implies to me that gold needs to rally sharply to get to an extreme so we can end the C-wave. Any thoughts about the performance torch being passed to gold as get to the end game as happened in 2006?
I’m not sure we will see gold outperform but that isn’t why I want to convert. I just don’t want to get caught in a selling climax if silver longs all of a sudden get it into their heads to take profits.
Gary,
What are your thoughts on this statement;
“Seasonal highs almost without exception occur before mid-May, and June, July, August, and September have not for the last eleven years shown any high.”
This seems congruent to your timeline, yes?
It all depends on where we are in the intermediate cycle. Last year gold made all time highs in June. That almost never happens but it did.
Also,
Considering the gold:silver ratio is at about 32:1 I find this an opportune time to swap silver for gold. This is what I plan to do with my physical…Arbitrage.
Gary,
Been a sub for a while. Have followed pretty much every move you have made with my own portfolio and have no complaints. Was invested in DGP in the past. It did not seem to follow spot as well as UGL. You may want to look at this. I don’t have any math to back it up, but remember not being pleased with the product’s performance as gold rallied.
From the Jan. bottom Gold has rallied 15%. During that same time DGP rallied 31.7%.
Seems to be doing exactly what it’s supposed to do to me.
Gary,
$50 silver is the number everyone is waiting for. I think either profit taking kicks in 1 or 2 dollars below or we are going to shoot right past it and I think that is when the shorts are going to start to panic and cover. that’s what I see.
There will be some profit taking prior to $50 as big money starts to sell into strength. The question is will it be enough to turn silver down prior to reaching $50?
I doubt it.
$50 is too big of a magnet. And I think I can safely say there are no more shorts left solvent in the silver market so we don’t have to worry about a short squeeze at this point.
wmp,
Big miners are lagging.
Some ideas:
1) Most miners are Canadian. The gold price rise in Loonies is less dramatic than in dollars.
2) Miners lag when their costs rise quickly especially energy (read oil). Off 2008 bottom oil is up 325% and gold 218%.
3) Hedge funds have a “pairs trade” going. They are buying gold and shorting the major miners.
4) In 1980’s miners were about the only way to invest. Now investors have: gold/silver ETF’s, mutual funds, double short and double long ETF’s, futures, options etc.
5) Gary’s scenario for a “D” wave is falling gold/silver, equities, commodities (I assume) and a rising dollar.
6)When the above plays out, miners should do very well in the upcoming “A” wave.
I have to wonder who came up with this idea that hedge funds are shorting the miners. Only an idiot would short undervalued miners.
I think it’s safe to say there aren’t too many idiots running hedge funds, so I doubt very many hedge funds are shorting miners.
Sounds like a rumor started so as to get dumb money to throw away their mining shares on the cheap.
Intern, The only reason I am in GLD and getting into DGP on the next dip, prior to any switchover is because in some of my accounts, if I sell a stock or ETF I have to wait a few days for the funds to settle before they will allow me to reuse the funds to buy another stock or ETF. In another one of my accounts, I can only do 3 trades a day. So rather than worrying about a delay in funds settlement, I am just bypassing that step on those particular accounts. I have SLV Options, so those will get switched as Gary outlined. Just a matter of forgoing a little less profits on silver on some of the accounts, but securely in the final runup on those accounts that are not as flexible to trade in. Otherwise I would be fully following Gary’s plan on all my accounts if it was possible.
At ease,
You can cure that problem by enabling your account for margin.
Hi Sophia. Sure, but don’t want to post email on public board, I can send you an email?
bamster,
Are you saying that someone who thinks silver is going to $50 is already short ?
I haven’t seen anyone mention Kinross Gold as a good stock to buy. Both Casey and Ruff have been recommending this. However, I have owned it for 2 years and it has done nothing. Any comments?
Thanks.
Did you guys see this, one way to get sheeple to sell.
Morningstar Lowers 3-Year Gold Price Forecast By 26%
http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2011/04/22/morningstar-lowers-3-year-gold-price-forecast-by-28/
Diana,
Stick with the ETF’s and you won’t have to deal with stuff like that.
Gary,
It’s a pair trade. They simultaneously buy an equal amount of gold and short an equal amount of GDX. I know of two hedge funds that employ this strategy in Europe.
Since the last C wave top, gold is up 48% and the GDX for example is up 11%.
John Hathaway and Eric Sprott, two managers of billions in gold assets and precious metal miner funds think these hedge fund managers will get burned. So do I.
Nevertheless, hedge funds are making this trade and it will work until it doesn’t.
It’s a senseless trade. Both are in uptrends. No credible hedge fund should be doing this.
You could go long both assets with possibly a smaller position in the under performing asset but it makes no sense what so ever to depress profits by shorting a rising asset class.
I seriously doubt very many hedge funds are making this kind of colossal mistake.
Gary, I only have one broker account that has margin. All others are IRA/401s. Once this Wave is over, will be closing the restricted trading IRA account and moving to Fidelity. Only opened it until I got my trading brokerage account opened and funded to trade on the platmform for free.
Gary: If this C-wave tops in June sometime, the entire C-wave would’ve lasted for about 26 months.
Do you have any sort of estimate as to how long the D-wave would last after a C-wave of that magnitude? Or has anyone done any studies on length of D-wave after C-wave?
Thanks much.
J,
April 16th report.
OK. Got it. Thanks.
Gary,
I have a good chunk of my porfolio in SLW (long since $31) – In your view, why won’t SLW struggle mightily with silver for the rest of the C-wave since they are so closely tied to one another?
Rob,
I’m not sure what you are asking me.
Gary,
Going forward, do you have the same concerns with SLW as you have with silver?
It seems that somehow everyone has now come to the conclusion that silver is going to crash immediately and that it is going to also crash the silver miners.
Folks this is not what I said. The odds are silver will just continue to lead gold higher and silver miners will reap the benefits.
The only reason I’m converting to gold is just on the slight chance we see another event like what happened in 06. I’m just forgoing a little outperformance to avoid that low probability event.
We will still make big gains in gold just not quite as big as silver. But we’ve made so much money already that it really isn’t important that we squeeze every last penny out of the silver trade.
you guys are crazy for selling your silver at $50. If gold is going to $1650 by June then silver will easily be around $60. I can guarantee as soon as $50 is cleared everyone who sold their metal at 50 will be chasing it again.
I can guarantee I won’t be chasing it. I will just be making money in gold instead.
Wes,
No, I’m saying everyone is expecting $50, so when everyone is expecting the same thing, the market usually throws you a curve ball.
Razvan, I agree.
Gary,
No matter what you say, some people will be hanging their butts out over the edge, without the safety rope strategy you have provided.
You like the rock metaphor?
Gary-
I think I’ve got the plan down.
Short silver
Short miners
Short gold
Long Apple?
Got it!
Hot Rod, thanks for that silver log chart. The scariest thing about it to me is the MACD rocketing up.
I’d consider that blue trendline you have as the upper line of the range. But what if we drew another trendline also starting in 2002, but more or less connecting 2004 and 2008, then 2006 is a bit of a blip and we’d be pretty much at that line now. So maybe that could be the lower end of the range.
Maybe this isn’t sound technicals analysis I don’t know, but just food for thought. Personally, I’m going with Gary’s plan, as while I love silver and the ride it’s been on, I’ll be more comfortable shifting soon to gold I think.
Yeah, this effort to squeeze every penny out of trading is counterproductive. Dial it back a little, reduce your stress, and enjoy the gains you’ve made.
There are many more opportunities in the future. This isn’t your last chance to make money.
looking at sell/buy volume oscillators there’s definitely a slow down in gold, so chances are good for a correction.
silver though is almost still full bore insane, there’s a small dropoff on the fast oscillator, that’s all
this is 60 day charts
Gary/Board RE: Options Leverage,
This is the link I was using to calculate Options leverage:
http://www.optiontradingpedia.com/options_leverage_calculation.htm
I do see the other calculation example but am having a hard time getting the #’s to match. Let’s forget a second about the precise leverage amount….
Is it really true that an at the money call option in GLD has more leverage than an the money option is SLV? THis is the main question I am trying to validate.
Let’s take the $100,000.
SLV 45 at the money option (21 contracts * $375 = $7875) gives 12.7 times leverage.
GLD Jul 146 has a premium of $4.80.
=100,000 / 146.74 = 681 shares.
= 7 option contracts * $480 = 3360
=100000 / 3360 = 29 times leverage.
Using the other website’s delta calculation, the GLD call has a leverage of 16 times.
Either way, 16 or 29 times is higher than SLV 45 at 13 times.
Maybe it has to do with the fact that GLD is a higher share price than SLV?
Another thing I noticed is the open interest. I would assume that one would have to be very careful about picking a strike price that has enough interest or else selling them will be a nightmare.
The strikes looking good for GLD are 140 and 145 (sweet spots) and also 142, 146, 148 and 150.
Based on this, to me it seems that switching over from SLV to GLD options not only is significantly reducing the risk but is also significantly increasing the leverage.
Too good to be true?
The SLV option is more volatile than the GLD option but it has nothing to do with leverage. Leverage is simply the amount of shares one controls above what could be purchased with 100% of their portfolio.
You can achieve 10:1 leverage in GLD options just as easily as you can in SLV options. The added volatility of SLV will make the moves larger in each direction but that isn’t because the leverage is larger it’s just because SLV is more volatile.
Actually you may be able to get larger leverage in GLD because it is less volatile so you will be able to buy more options and control more shares above and beyond 100%.
Jabalong,
No problem. Here is the chart as you indicated with the line linking 2004 and 2008 and cutting through 2006.
We’ve already broken up above it in 2011.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=W&st=2000-01-01&en=2011-06-30&id=p39229906016&a=232160778
This is why I keep going back to thinking the situation this time is vastly different than prior ones.
India on Saturday has silver trading up equiv $2.50 and gold $26. A reaction to China raising interest rates again. Tomorrow night should be interesting.
Just a word of caution when it comes to these charts. For the most part the only reason technical analysis works is because enough people base their trades off of it that it has a self fulfilling tendency.
If your TA gets obscure enough no one will be trading based on it so it will have no predictive value.
Channel lines along the tops of trends tend to fall in this category.
Bull markets go up so they break through upside levels. That’s why uptrends almost always end up breaking up through a channel at some point. Technicians trying to pick tops often get fooled by this and then miss a big chunk of the move.
This is why I don’t put a lot of faith in patterns for the most part. (I do pay attention to triangles, T-1 patterns and crawls but that’s about it.)
Things like wedges, head & shoulders patterns, three peaks and a domed house, Elliot wave, etc are so subjective that there’s too much chance of them morphing or smart money fading them to fleece the retail trader who is gullible enough to believe these things give one an edge to be of any real use.
This gets really absurd when people try to incorporate these pattens into intraday moves. Intraday moves can be driven by just a few traders. Does an intraday head and shoulders pattern really have any meaning when it’s being driven by three or four big players?
Of course not.
If one just sticks to the big picture cycles and sentiment you will do just fine. If you sidetracked into thinking you are going to chart your way to riches in this bull market I’m afraid you will be sadly disappointed.
Here’s another interesting historical silver chart.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=W&st=1987-01-01&en=1987-06-30&id=p28634145708&a=232160778
What the hell happened in the spring of 1987?
In 6 weeks silver went from $5.60 to $11 (96% increase).
This was March 23rd to the end of May.
Correlation….Notice how the week of April 20th is the last huge green positive candle. The week after that had a gap up, run up then a crash lower.
Bob,
Would you post a link? Thx!
f
David with the flea,
Aren’t you the one that bought the 2009 bottom with either a load of miners or AGQ? I thought you posted that some time ago. If that is the case, you sure have no worries.
I was referencing the fence sitters, the sellers of everything at any SMT portfolio adjustment, and the constant reading things into Gary’s writings that just do not exist.
From your posts, I don’t believe you are in that group. I also commend your buying at the apocalypse if that was you. I just joined Gary at that time and bought, but like a fool I traded, when I should have never looked again. Had I shut off my computer and walked away, my returns would have been multiples of what they are now.
Gary,
When the time comes to get out of silver are you going to let a trade trigger on SLV execute it or do it by the seat of your pants?
Puppy Dog Follower,
I need a Hammy Sammich, some pork and Beanies and a double order of fries please! To wash it down, I need a large cup of that special blend of Tim&Jean coffee.
Tanks
Sold all my gold and silver on your advice and have a bid on AAPL and SMH ready to go for Monday morning.
Brian,
Don’t forget to buy some SLV puts and go long green energy micro caps! : D
/sarcasm off
Brian,
I was long at the bottom, but I bought too early and took a tremendous beating in the process. I kept catching the falling knife all through Fall 08. I never sold a share, so I came out very well (Old Turkey!), but in no way am I pretending that I timed it perfectly. At one point I think I was down 70%. At the absolute bottom I had no dry powder left so I wound up buying silver bullion on my credit card.
Since then I am up thousands of percent in miners like EXK, but I have no desire to relive the experience. When silver collapses I intend to be far out of range.
Gary,
Speed climbing the Eiger.
Under 3 hours.
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=dd2_1303574321
This guy’s done it before, obviously.
In preparation of your Swiss vacation. Enjoy.
David, your story brings back memories.
When the real D wave comes, at the end of blow off top, it will eat every PM long alive.
In late ’81 and early ’82, on the backside of the $50 silver parabola, I was buying and selling silver.
I made lots of money very quickly.
What to expect. The drop in silver will not only kill the over extended, it will bring out large numbers of people who hold silver who didn’t sell it on the ascent.
They will realize something’s “wrong” and will disgorge silver.
Those who think the only way is “up” will at first buy their silver, and then they will discover that the flat price plateau they’re then on is not solid. The price will decline, 5% and 10%, and still there will be buyers. And then there will be freefall, further out, when silver will decline by 20% of where it then is, and more.
The failing backside of this building parabola will be as usual inconceivable, just like this rise now feels during this past two weeks to those who are watching and shaking their heads.
Beware the D wave, the backside of the parabola.
David, I do not believe for a minute that the D wave upon us will match what you experienced in 2008. That being said it is still a D wave.
To be honest with you, the upcoming D wave will be a blip to you at the end of this, so I’m not sure trading it has any value to you unless you plan position or company adjustments.
The only reason for me to trade is AGQ, which is clearly a trading vehicle. The miners take a lot more thought. I have really become accustomed to them swinging 50%, and reality says these juniors will for the most part be conversion plays.
Congratulations on your intestinal fortitude.
David with the flea,
My best for example is XG. I received the shares in the carve out. They are up 500% since then. Should I trade those shares around a D wave? My thinking is not.
Obviously you are sitting strong hand status with a good group of miners. Would I trade that status. No. Would Gary trade that status. Not sure but I think he has those same miners in his dresser drawer.
Rod, interesting. Thx! In just 1 month from 20 March 1987 till 27 April silver doubled 5,5$-11$..
Then intraday, 27 April it crashed about 30% from 11,10 to 7,8!
Maybe in connection with the rollover to a new month’s future contract. + Some news too certainly.
Gold went more moderately from 405 to 478 till 27 April and ‘only’ dropped 10% that day
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&st=1987-02-20&en=1987-07-31&id=p29167713725
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&st=1987-02-20&en=1987-08-31&id=p59231623039
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/dollar-index.png
It is actually bullish for the dollar. I’m not gonna tell you why it’s bullish, but it is. A breakdown will be a FAKEdown; don’t fall for it.
That likely means the precious metals rally is near an end. And the stock market should march higher, much higher. It will be a breathtaking equities market rally in 2012.
Don’t get me wrong, precious metals will do fine probably year end and long term. (I own some silver and gold, by the way…since the last few weeks).
The next 3 months won’t be pretty for pm’s. But it will be great for stocks like RVBD and CY. Not sure why everyone wants to eat that last 3-4 points on silver.
Beanie, did the silver bull kill your puppy ?
Or did you sell it to buy PM and ride the next wave down because it will be up by year end ?
It’s not making sense to me.
Alex
“..They simultaneously buy an equal amount of gold and short an equal amount of GDX….”
So, applying this to SLW, even though it broke down from a rising triangle, and is now crawling precariously along its 50 dma, once silver gets to around 50 the hedge funds could reverse – short silver and buy equities – thereby saving our SLW further downside ….
Hope so!
John
Two burglars just broke into my house. I spooked them and they ran away
Cat,
You will just have to watch the spot price on Kitco if you want to time it perfectly.
Beanie,
Instead of being wrong time after time why don’t you just buy a $25 subscription so you can learn how these cycles work and make money.
We will be out of the metals long before the dollar rallies and the D-wave begins. Most here have profited up to 200% or more in the last 9 months.
Maybe this has been pointed out already, but doesnt the SLW chart have a 50 day crawl on it?
John,
Silver Pair Trade
I haven’t heard or read anything about a silver/silver miner pair trade.
We know hedge funds are all over gold: Kyle Bass, my classmate John Paulson, PT Jones, Einhorn, Soros, Kaplan, Hermitage, Passport, etc. These guys don’t pair trade gold to my knowledge.
Check http://www.marketfolly.com, http://www.opalesque.com and http://www.citywire.co.uk andother hedge fund websites for info.
As far as I know, only European hedge funds like Carmignac (largest hedgie outside the U.S.) and commodity funds are doing anything with silver. They also have a large gold position.
gary
if a broker for futures uses a forward contract and not the spot for TA , would that just be totaly insure they are wrong?
to track gold do you have to use spot?
or if you are tracking a forward contract does it suport itself?
Eamonn, some would argue that guns and ammo are just as valuable as Silver these days.
Eamonn,
It is in the name.
These charts call for correction, coinciding with a daily low. Or the parabola continues..
GC Weekly Hitting long-term resistance, pull back this week and finally break out the following weeks mimicking SI’s run.
GC 4hour
SI 4hour If ever one could draw a pattern on a parabola, this be it.
Happy Easter everybody.
Gary, how would you interpret a more dramatic pullback in gold and silver at this stage if it were to occur? Clearly, you’re in the modest pullback camp, so at what point would you interpret it as something more that we should be concerned about? Hopefully, just a useless hypothetical exercise!
OT, but Gary might like it, amazing pictures.
Jimmy Chin Climbs Yosemite, And Lives To Tell The Tale (PHOTOS)
http://news.travel.aol.com/2011/04/24/jimmy-chin-yosemite-national-geographic/#4080127
Link: http://arum-geld-gold.blogspot.com/2011/04/nice-channel-for-gld.html
A post on gold. I am between projects and will be posting more frequently.
Please read parkers post on ttheory. Very good gold silver comparison of 2006 and 2008. It implies silver something like 47 to 40 to 50 when gold rises steady. That answers some questions here about like where will be silver if gold goes 20 percent more.
China is going to reduce usd holdings by 2/3.
They are going to export massive inflation back to us by buying up every resource they can (imo)
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/china-proposes-cut-two-thirds-its-3-trillion-usd-holdings
Yash,
“parkers post on ttheory”
That’s not enough information for me to find what you want me to read.
Could you post a link or something I could Google, please?
Best,
Le Fou
Le Fou,
Here’s a link to terry’s T Theory site. Parker often posts there:
http://www.ttheory.com/
BOB FROM HAWAII
Thanks for the chart, did you mean you were going to be posting more on here, or somewhere else?
P.S. I bought ‘your’ GORO on the breakout recently 🙂
I am not thinking it’ll pull back much below a gap fill. If it does,depending on how it looks, I may add more.
Beanie:
“I own some gold and silver since the last few weeks.”
Uh-oh.
The conversion by China of its holdings to commodities is not a surprising development.
What’s surprising is that the MSM is just now deciding this is something to consider.
China has been purchasing major positions since 2003 and 2004. Check when they first bought major positions in the wheat output of Argentina. That was the obvious start.
You know the phrase, “Sell on the news”? Well, that’s why the USD will bottom here.
PIMA
Thank you for that link.
After I read the whole top of the page and saw sign ups for a seminar, I thought…”hmmm, whatever” , then scrolling down I found the Diamond in the rough!
That double top silver, higher high gold top has some validity to it. History (based on human behavior reflected in the charts) often repeats itself.That could add to my view of things going forward in a good way.
Thanks again!
Long but great post.
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/04/deflation-or-hyperinflation.html
2 questions,
1. why is beanie not banned yet
2. and is this the sign of top as beanie bought some gold/silver in last few weeks.
jc,
Regarding the Zero Hedge article, it will be curious to see how much the world takes this seriously because the quote from today (not earlier this week) on the amount of the reduction came from the chairman of a private institution. Of course if this is a prominent institution then maybe it means alot. We shall see shortly.
Thanks, Movax2!
You’re welcome, Alex.
I used to listen to Terry Laundry’s T Theory analysis of the markets every Sunday, but haven’t been a regular listener for a few months now. T Theory seems to be a workable theory for longer term timing. I probably ought to check the site once a month or so and see what his latest forecast is. His longer term forecast for gold (last time I listened) lines up with Gary’s–he says gold is in a bull market till 2020. But he does not have the short term accuracy that Gary has. Still, it’s nice to hear other methods of analysis confirming that this bull has a ways to go yet.
E,
Yes, it is a sign of an impending top. Beanie bought very close to the end of a 3 year C wave!
Alex, I have a blog that I post my charts on. I will post those there and shoot an alert over here.
If this runup is at all comparable with the past example Gary used, I think it would be fitting about now for the expected small pullback/pause.
We’re so close to the $50 mark that I don’t think there’s going to be much hanging around now … Why stop for a drink when you’re near the finish line?
I can easily imagine, after a day or two, a succession of days where each day is steeper than the preceding.
It could all be over pretty fast…
John,
People were looking for a good-sized pullback two weeks ago that never materialized.
I believe it was yesterday that someone mentioned that the 17% drop in 2006 came out of the blue. Now we’re expecting something similar.
Doesn’t the market often do the opposite of what people are anticipating? I am extremely interested to see how this plays out.
I agree.
We could see a drop tomorrow, I doubt it though, or it doesn’t drop at all, and keeps going, way up into the clear blue sky. Then, the carpet gets pulled.
But when, and at what price point.
I am anxious to see how this plays out too.
If Gary says at least 50, that is good enough for me.
He has nailed it so often, it boggles my mind.
I decided to look at what day of the week was that nasty sell off back in 2006.
Thursday.
I am not saying this will happen, but three more days to build euphoria, and break above 50 …
Interesting to think about.
Thank you BobFrom Hawii
I look forward to it…I will not miss them 🙂
Even when I am away for a day, I skim the blog and read what I can.
pvm,
That’s an excellent observation.
Ciao, Happy Easter!
Here is a chart of $USD and $GOLD last 10 years, the dollar is dropping like a rock, How big chance is it bounce a little next a few days.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p17024221432
Gary,
I don’t really see a need for that, at least for myself. Most people, bloggers included, who have purchased my book have done very well.
Netflix reports monday AM and Amazon after Tuesday AM.
Both of these are techhie sentiment favorites and their reports can affect Nasdaq.
I think a lot of people have jumped on the Netflix bandwagon based on Cramer and, granted it has gone up considerably, if it has a bad report, it could weigh the sector to a downtrend.
I’m no guru, I just try to go by mass psychology.
I own neither.
There goes Swifty.
Currencies trading underway.
MrMiyagi,
I was looking at switching some of my HZU into a gold bull plus etf. I want to put it into HBU since it is accurately tracking gold x2 but the volume is incredibly low. Another option is the etf HGU but it doesn’t track spot gold very well.
Have you got any thoughts for a fellow Canadian who doesn’t trade options?
Rob,
Is this for an RRSP account?
Otherwise, why not options?
Poly,
Do you still have the AGQ you bought the other day, or are you all SLV calls, now ?
I’m all calls for just over 100%, 60% cash.
The future is a mystery.
Still ?
My ABX seasonal model is showing an
80% probability of a higher close on Monday with a 60% chance that the close will be higher than the open. On Tuesday the model flips with an 80% chance of a lower close than the previous day.
The model is 73% accurate.
This comment has been removed by the author.
The past is history.
MrMiyagi,
It’s not an RRSP account but my brokerage account is not eligible for option trading…yet. Before the A-wave begins I will fill out the proper documents to trade options.
I think that I may try the low volume etf for the last part of the C-wave and hope that I will get out unscathed. My portfolio isn’t really that big anyhow…LOL
Let’s get ready to rumble.
Bid/Ask is showing $47.26 on the open at options express.
Wow! What an open!
Fireworks… still going strong
Ahain
Can we trust that seasonal model?
Is it on silver or gold?
I’m thinking I might exit silver if/when it gets to $49.75.
Something tells me there are going to be a lot of profit takers executing sell orders at $50.
I would of course immediately transfer the capital into DGP and NUGT.
Rob L,
HBU will do it’s job, bid/ask are managed and will give you fair value, or close enough.
Rob,
I’d go with HGU final determination being volume of half a mil to a mil plus.
Wanting to sell into a 50 thousand volume stock or ETF can be difficult, I had talked about this about a month ago, I’ve traded the likes of ATD.B with 250K volume and while I did make money, I had to make the price move on occasion buying to close a gap. When you have time, it’s ok, but when you need to sell right now, it’s out of your hands.
Movax2,
Thanks.
PIMA,
Thanks for the link. That’s an interesting site. If I ever retire, I wonder if I’ll be interested in investment seminars like that?
I’m certainly undecided about whether those top patterns will repeat. I have to respect Gary’s analysis, and it seems that there’s not much to lose that way. The thing that the double top in slv gives us is the possibility that gld will not only be safer but more profitable.
Best,
Le Fou
MrMiyagi,
Thanks.
Catbird
Maybe..Maybe not..But I will also sell silver..Probably earlier than you and put the money in gold instead.
its getting close to $50. It will soon be time for many of you to close your silver positions for the rest of the C wave
Rob L,
To follow up.. see http://www.hbpetfs.com/pub/en/resources/Faqs.aspx#general9
Unless you are selling an obscene amount of shares, I wouldn’t think it would be much of a problem.
Moneyman
I trust it, but that doesnt mean that you have to.
Its based on ABX (Barrick Gold), im calibrating other symbols. Given ABX correlation with GLD is 0.8 i could say its a fairly good measure for gold.
Razvan
Theres no reason to be invested in silver anymore.
I have made so much money and I dont want to wake up to the collapse of silver.
I will sleep much better at night if I get myself into gold instead which is less volatile.
But silver will probably go to 60 or somethink but I dont care..
Razvan,
What do you mean exactly? Are you departing from Gary on this?
Razvan,
I don’t get it?
Movax2,
Thanks again. I’m not a big shot by any stretch so I think I would be okay too. The other HGU does have a ton more volume but the return is quite a bit lower over the last 3 months. I plan on selling it prior to the panic selloff anyway.
Ahain!
Ok thanks for that info..:-)
Gary can you here me?
Have you consider to keep 25% in silver and move the rest into gold?
But probably your answer will be that theres to much risk to keep silver right?
Just flipped my Silver to Gold. All of it
Canadians,
I too am looking for an alternative for DGP. I think our best bet will be HBU.TO but the volume does concern me a bit. However, looking at the historical volume, I think when things get really euphoric the volume should increase and getting out shouldn’t be too much of a problem. I’m still contemplating whether to put anything in the miners for this finale so I might stay out of HGU.TO
Kids,
Let’s not go crazy and lose decorum here.
What Gary said, and repeated, is that he does not want to be caught in a possible selloff in silver and switching to gold reduces the volatility. He is willing to give up gains to protect from a possible downside.
Vish
Lucky you..The market is closed here in sweden. Open again on tuesday..Will sell my silver then and buy gold instead..:-)
I hope its not to late and we get a nasty correction monday night..:-)
Ryan,
HBU will work, see my link above in my post to Rob L.
It seems to be doing it’s job fine..
http://bit.ly/dX6bWb
Moneyman,
I have to wait until Tuesday morning for a significant portion of my Silver too (it’s in a UK ISA account).
But what I did was sold the equivalent amount in my spreadbetting account & bought Au
I think spreadbetting is available in Sweden?
everybody has been eagerly awaiting for the big C wave move to arrive. Now that it is finally here people want to move out of silver?? The move has just begun, the DXY is just breaking 74 on its way to 70 or lower so it makes no sense to close positions now just because of the magic number 50. Who cares what happened 50 years ago. I am sure who exits now will regret it later.
Vish
Will you sell your silver on tuesday and switch to gold?
TZ,
Where u at? What’s your take on the past few days’ action?
Razvan
Will you keep your silver portfolio intact then?
Dont change anything?
Raz: a few things— 1. 2006 is not 50 years ago 2. I will not regret banking a huge profit in silver and staying long PM’s via gold, even if silver soars from here. 3. Gary has made many fantastic calls, so whether he is right or not, saying doing what he suggests “makes NO sense” seems extreme to me. 4. Gary did not suggest selling silver until it hits 50. I have no idea why people are wanting to sell it now.
Tz has had some good calls recently.
Would be interesting to hear his view..
Moneyman,
I have effectively switched to Gold already. On tuesday I will sell my silver long in my ISA & close out the equivalent short in my Spreadbetting account.
What I did at the open 45 minutes ago was effectively hedge my ISA position (short silver) & bought gold.
i am going to cut the leverage down until we get past the Fed meeting on the 27th but will continue holding positions until the dxy gets somewhat closer to the 70 level.
DG,
I’m 100% on board with Gary. All I’m saying is, I’ll probably exit silver at $49.75, a few pennies under $50, because I think there are decent odds the big 5-Oh triggers a lot of sell orders.
When I sell, I will immediately buy just as much NUGT and DGP.
DG,
I’m selling now because I’m factoring in what Doc is saying too. He is effectively selling all his silver & waiting for an entry for Gold
So I split the difference between Gary/Doc & switched to Gold now
Without giving away his paid material, let’s just say that Gary’s friend Doc is already much more skittish about silver than Gary.
Oops…Vish beat me to it.
Is Gary still going to do a weekend report?
If all hell keeps breaking loose overnight and into the NY open, there is an outside chance we get to $50 tomorrow and cut through it.
I’d like to know more detail about Gary’s strategy, especially if we need to act fast intraday.
Hot Rod,
Ehh…don’t put too much stock in the pre-open. Light volume.
Let’s wait and see what the Big Boyz do when NY opens.
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Trond,
Link doesn’t work for me. Page not found.
One argument against it being “1980” is that during that time, it was the final top of the bull market in silver for a generation. The true mania. We are in an incredible market now but as I think we all know, this is not the top of the long term silver bull. So perhaps 2006 and 2008 offer the better analogy.
Romeo,
Right. Plus, Gary has said he thinks the grand finale C-wave top will come around 2017.
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This comment has been removed by the author.
We are only 5% or so away from 50 tonight. We could see a tag of 50 after hours.
I loaded my /SI trend line off the summer move and then notice a channel it above the TL. Notice how price danced around the summer one and then bumped up for the 3rd time on the top of the tight channel where price was rejected 3 times pretty hard. It then busted through and is making a B-line for 50. So a tag of 50 and a correction back to the 42.50 zone would be around a 15% decline. Or it just rockets to upper 60’s!
http://www.screencast.com/users/Jayhawk1991/folders/Jing/media/f9ded0d5-6ce2-4388-b494-19e16787563d
Pima, I’ve followed Laundry and his T-theory for over 2 years. He is amazing, extremely good. Yes, and his gold-T now corresponds very well with Gary.
Apropos silver, the existential question of course, is this 2006 or 1980..
Here layover to old chart from 1979-80 of silver (to retain the details at the left part of the chart it was necessary to paste in the finish january part in special way).
Todays chart to the right. Quite striking similarities; Initial breakout above the recent high, the mid consolidation. The setback of the mid consolidation was 10% in 1979, only slighly more January this year. & Some of the wiggles in both (circled).
The present rise have been more gradual (the horisontal scale of today’s should be stretched a bit more than on the pic). Reflecting perhaps that today is still not yet the mania bull finish phase like 1980
Also targets drawn (horisontal lines) if the percent rise after the consolidation will be the same today as then.
1979 80
Strange coincidence, after mailing the above to a friend couple of days ago, I skimmed thru the recent posts at the SMT blog, and saw that Basil had independently arrived at the same conclusion. He mentioned he had noticed the mid consolidation in 1979, and calculated the target to 74$ if the rise from our last January consolidation matched the rate of 1979-80’s.
Very close to the target already drawn on the map, 71$.
The sharp few days correction in beginning of Jan 1980 started at ’58$’ in our terms, and went down to ’49’.
However, if today is ‘2006’ then one should get out maybe soon. Guess much depends on the dollar, a continued nasty dip could set up for ‘1980’.
In all 3 previous major occations, silver recovered following the first strong corrections; after the primo january dip 1980, the first crash 2006 and the dip post first top of 2008 (2008 double top).
Dollar just broke below 74
The correction in gold that everyone is awaiting seems very unlikely if the dollar keeps falling apart like it is… Maybe a Fed governor statement tomorrow will do it… or maybe a margin hike in silver (its due)…Something needs to happen. Options expiration is Tuesday, and its very unlikely that this is where we close on Tuesday.
Wish miners would notice silvers move
RomeoBravo:”One argument against it being “1980” is that during that time, it was the final top of the bull market in silver for a generation. The true mania. We are in an incredible market now but as I think we all know, this is not the top of the long term silver bull. So perhaps 2006 and 2008 offer the better analogy.”
We need to see a gorgeous parabola before this is over. It’s a visual expression of the group mind.
We are witnessing mass hysteria and delusion. We can measure its intensity by the proportions of the parabola.
This appears on all time frames. We are working on a yearly time frame.
We are about to experience a double top moment.
But the base, this time, is much longer and more gradual than 1980. So, the base is bigger and the rise will be huge.
We are watching the daily to see the parabola in that time frame, and it is sharp, like 1980; so the backside will be vertical, too.
Because I track my DSI pattern, and 1X is 1547, and we’re not there, yet, silver will continue to rise and lead. When 1x or 1.1x, which is 1558, is reached, we may have the correction in silver.
silver mini futures gapped up 99 cents
trond, the 1980 chart shows the retracement Gary’s talking about starting somewhere in the 60-75 range.
Imagine all the short reversal pickers who are going to flood in very shortly because there’s no way this can go higher, right?
Not only exit at 50, but heck, short it, right? NOT.
The beauty of this move will be a move to 65-70+, a fast short reversal for a few weeks, and then the rest of the 1980 parabola, taking silver this time to 123-130, the true fair value, inflation adjusted against 30 years ago.
Then it will be time for the reversal.
Slumdog, I doubt it. But hey, I’m glad there are those who think it can go much, much higher right now! That’s what makes a market!
trond, your 80 chart shows a 20% drop and a 50% extension from that low.
That will take silver, from 70 to 55 to 90+.
Even though 100 is a big round number, I think the stretch will be so huge from 55 and the suckers will believe 100 is in the cards, that cutting the move off at 90+ will be sufficient for a huge windfall in that D wave.
Thx for the posting.
I’m planning to convert to Gold this week. Any ideas for entering a call position for GLD or IAU?
I think that someone mentioned this.
the 1980 top was the FINAL TOP of that bull market.
we’re not even close to a final top here. So comparing this to that and going of it might be risky
RB, my top call target number in June is 92.
We’ll soon find out as this is all on rush-rush expedited time. We’re in a parabola, and there’s so many noobs and stackers to eat.
Trond’s chart shows the way. History will not fully repeat, but we know what parabolas look like and for the newbies here, the backside is clear as a bell.
What trond doesn’t show is that after that 36 backside range, SI in a matter of 45 days, roughly, sank much more, and never stopped sinking, with the first plateau at 30 and then 28 and 26 and 24 and finally 20. At that time, I left the silver flipping biz as nobody holding would part with it.
So, we will see the public stop exiting silver if what I’ve just posted becomes real, at this price, here, and just camp on their holdings, joining methuselah and other “stackers”.
That 10 yr parabola will take years more before it comes into play. Meanwhile, the stackers had better enjoy coin sandwiches.
Slumdog
92 silver in june?
Its just 5 weeks away?
Whats your target on gold?
“If your TA gets obscure enough no one will be trading based on it so it will have no predictive value.”
This is a great point Gary, the kind of reminder that would be worth pasting above one’s computer for anyone trying technicals analysis. Making note to self.
Thanks Hot Rod for that amended chart. My suggestion second trendline is probably not sound TA, but I just figure if one’s looking for a trendline along the tops, it was worth pointing out. All the more reason, I’ll be happy to switch over to gold soon if the plan works out.
With a spurt in globex/early Asian trading today, we’re up to $47.70 at the moment. It sure feels like there’s a magnet drawing silver to $50…
trond,
I’ve been thinking about your 1980 silver chart some more, and I’m thinking we may be in the $16-18 area as that is approximately the current inflation adjusted level.
Hi Wes,
AGQ full load in 401k self managed and in trading accounts 30% May SLV $38’s and 70% cash. Ready to roll, judging by the strength, likely sooner than later.
You’re positioned very nicely, rode it nicely.
If anyone wants a free dollar chart to check in on intraday (or tonight) (like checking Kitco for silver or gold), here’s one you can use:
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&t=l&a=2&w=5&v=w
Seeking advice: My sister has lots of money stuck in her 401K at work. Of course, it has no “precious metals” option to put that money into.
Is there anything she can do apart from taking all that money out and taking the tax hit? Can she self-manage it or any option that would allow her to put it into precious metals?
THANKS FOR ANY ADVICE.
Poly,
Are you planning to partially trade the correction or just ride it out ?
Hi Poly,
I asked Gary to forward you my email. Bascally, i was just curious. You mentionned that in tge space of 8 weeks, you turned 9000$ into 193000$, which is truely amazing! Was it via options? If so, did you buy tons of OTM ones? Thanks for your help and insight.
John Henry,
That dollar quote has a 30 minute delay. Here’s one that’s live:
http://www.goldseek.com/quotes/charts/usdollar/usdollarindex24hour.php
No advice on the 401K. Sorry
Best,
Le Fou
Who is planning to convert from silver to gold or at least partial positions? I am starting to see rampent bullishness everywhere on silver with people calling for 60,70, or even 100 silver. Sounds contrary to me, and i worry we won’t even hit 50 b4 correcting
Ah, Le Fou, I never even realized that (would just pop in to check it from time to time).
THANKS VERY MUCH!
P.S. And I’m surprised you know that “jh” stands for John Henry. You must be pretty well-read. ;^)
Hi Sophia,
I never made such claim, sorry. Only statement I made was a 600% return since last Aug 2010 INT cycle start.
That’s seems more online with what can be done ! Amazing return though, well done! Hope you had a good break and enjoy your return!
Sophia,
If my memory serves me right, the 9K to 193K was “Clarkatoid” back in the 2000 dotcom boom
Trond, Googling Laundry anf T-theory gave me a few sites, including this one:
http://ttheory.typepad.com/
Is this the right one that you read?
This bit from the 24 April update backs up very well the logic behind Gary’s plan to shift from silver to gold for the final leg of this C-wave:
“The precious metals rally that began in July-August of 2010 looks very similar to the bull runs in gold and silver in 2005-06, and 2007-08. Let’s examine what happened at the end of those bull markets for clues on how to play the expected top in metals coming in the May-June 2011 time frame.
Here’s the end of the 2006 bull run:
http://ttheory.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83455c65c69e201538e14932e970b-pi
As you can see, silver made a top in mid-April 2006, suffered a big correction, and struggled to make a token new high in mid-May. Meanwhile, gold was far less volatile and rose steadily despite silver’s problems. Importantly, gold topped on silver’s double-top. Afterwards, silver crashed much harder than gold over the next month.
Now let’s look at what happened in 2008:
http://ttheory.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83455c65c69e2015431e7b6a6970c-pi
Once again, silver made a double top while gold topped on silver’s second top. And silver crashed harder than gold over the next two weeks.
Silver acts like a modern day Icarus at tops. It flies a little too high, fails to learn its lesson, and on the second attempt its wings melt completely resulting in a crash landing.
In the coming weeks, I will be watching very closely to see if silver: 1) makes a top, 2) corrects more significantly than gold does, and 3) struggles to make a new top while gold keeps climbing. This pattern should provide an excellent signal take profits in gold.”
WES,
I wish I knew 🙂
Going to attempt to hold, see where it takes us and watch closely. We get an out of control day, a 6% plus day then I will likely sell there and then, at those levels it will likely mark the top.
You rising them?
Hi Poly,
Am I understanding you correctly, that you now have a full AGQ position in one account and a boat load of SLV calls in another? And this is a position that you put on recently, so in profit now, but not huge profit yet, right?
Do you have a target price for silver? Are you planning to ride out the C wave in silver or will you convert to gold at some point?
Welcome back, by the way.
Grammer of Assent and Apology Pro
Sua Vita for the 150th Anniversary of the Oxford Movement.
Excellent!
“Idea of a University” got me hooked when I was 18. Had a big impact on me as I was getting ready to go to college.
Hi Pima,
AGQ is fairly new at @$313.
SLV calls are brand new, they are slighty ahead.
I have no real price targets. I do believe Silver is very overdue for a big correction, so I will not be adding anything else until that happens. If it doesn’t happen, I will ride with what have. If it does, I will LOAD UP HARD as it’s cliff diving, hopefully towards the bottom.
I see the arguments for gold outperforming, but Silver seems special this time around, I will be riding the majority with Silver. I’m thinking a goo portion of GLD calls too.
Thanks for the welcome. You been making out well?
Sorry for the typo’s, typin on iPhone.
Poly,
Yes, I’ve been doing well, but nowhere near the returns you’re getting.
Getting a little nervous here, though, with silver so close to 50 and the dollar now rallying a bit.
I’ve contemplated making the shift from silver to gold, I will probably do that, but might retain a small silver position.
Gold Silvwr Troll, thanks, I must have read that blog too fast! Well done to Clarkoid anyway!!!
Just my read…
-People are banking profits they don’t have yet.
-Options play is excessive.
-Seeing predicitons of ridiculous prices for silver…not that they can’t happen, but the sky high predictions are what is key here.
Greed and euphoria. My interpretation..We are nearing a top in silver.
f
What action will I take?
Tomorrow, if we open with the strength we’re seeing now, I will clear out all Silver related positions, but will keep my gold miners. I’ll put 40% of my portfolio in DGP. I’ll add 30% more to DGP on a breakout following a correction. Any other action will be based on the action as it unfolds.
f
Poly,
What GLD calls do you like?
I like the June $140’s bought right at the bottom of a one day $30 dollar drop. Thinking out loud.
I’m planning on riding it unless we get levels where I’m reasonably confident of a trade.
But. I’m set up well for a ride, and the deeper the better.
Poly,
That strike price would be at an expected low if a correction occurs. Why June expiration vs July or August? Are you figuring the timing for the Dollar bottom? Seems like Gary mentioned 4-6 weeks to get to gold $1650.
Thanks in advance, as I respect your posts.
Russ
POS knocking on 48’s door.
I’d watch it tomorrow though, if price opens below today’s open then the computer algorithms are going to see an evening star pattern and hammer it
Shoutout to gold bugs. Gold eventually headed to $36,000; same with Dow Jones.
Referencing the 1979/80 silver parabolic move, I think that when we hit a $50 POS that this will be a psychological profit taking event, which will resemble the same event at $38 POS in 1979, only to see silver go parabolic once more in a final blow off top
Chart:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/58720171@N08/5647456423/sizes/l/in/photostream/
btw Gary it’s Trader Dan who says the hedge funds are shorting the miners alth reading btw the lines he doesn’t seem to have any evidence for this, he says it’s a ratio trade, whichever way the metal price goes they will make money, because in a correction the miners will decline slightly more than the metal
IMO, the base that’s formed, and the slow long angle of incline is not to be ignored. This is not like the short sharp rise of 1980, imo.
On a ratio basis, 60-75 is well within harmonious balance, and then a sharp pullback.
Gold still has a 3X, up to 1770, which it will normally go after repudiating the reversal of Dec.
$48 silver just broke. guess i’m staying up late tonight
this silver bull is incredible, $48.13 now.
Do I sell into strength tomorrow and take half off the table in my AGQ and SLV call positions and let the rest ride up until we touch 50 or let it all ride up to 50 and then
go with Gary’s gold plan…
Thoughts? These levels are making me nervous!
I would stay with Gary’s plan. Gary has said several times that he believes $50 gives you plenty of cushion to escape any possible surprise correction. I mean, if it’s good enough for Gary, and he’s the boss…
Monday will be the 3rd NY Pit gap day in a row if we close higher than the Thurs close.
That’s nearly unheard of. That’s getting ready for a limit up day.
What’s limit up in silver? Is there one?
Blake ,
How many calls do u have of each and which month?
@Kal,
Thanks, looking a POS of silver, it may go to 50 tomorrow! I may be selling in any event in that case haha. This bull amazes me!
Bamster
I have 12 July 40 SLV calls and own shares in AGQ
Tomorrow ? What about $50 in the next hour ?
Slumdog,
I just read this, but I don’t know how accurate it is. it is from 2003.
http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1072818610.php
Also, are you saying silver will run straight to at least 60 from thursdays close?
Yeah, Blake. Just saw silver hit about $48.50. It’s kinda crazy. Wonder what AGQ will open at tomorrow? Glad to be holding it!
Less than 3% away from 50, it will hit it tonight
silver gapping huge tonight. may hit $50 and drop before people with AGQ can even get out.
n1tro,
I am inclined to think the same… Or it will just blow right by 50 haha…
Ah, this is frying my nerves!
My jaw is on the ground right now.
I’m in NY and having a hard time getting to sleep with the fireworks.
Can’t believe this is happening.
hope it stays this high tomorrow morning, have tons of slv calls.
questio is, do we sell some or just wait it out till wed.
Amazing… looks like we are in store for that magic number here! Wow
$49 fcuking dollars!!
$48.98?
$49.05 buy $48.95 sell
bamster.
Look at the 79-80 chart that’s being posted here, and the current chart.
What I look for is fibonacci symmetry.
The repudiation of the monthly reversal high in gold, back in Dec/Jan set up for a me a probability of 1547. and I posted it then, in Feb, as one probable directional number. We’re going there. And because this is a repudiation, rather than a reversal down, the 3X is very common to these reversals. And because this is on a monthly, hens teeth, I think it highly probable we will get near 1770.
This silver move is similar. But this is on a fibonacci symmetry.
If you reviewed as many parabolas as I have, you’d see that there are short stubby ones and there are long extended ones and there are perfect ones. This, because of the gold move (crazy as it sounds), is along for the gold ride.
So, I’m guessing given this base that silver won’t turn until gold hits 1547. And that will move silver into the low 60’s, I think.
If this can happen, we will have painted a gorgeous, harmonious, elegant parabola. Then, the sharp jerk back.
This is how I’m approaching the puts I’ll buy against my physical so I avoid the certain sharp pullback.
Blake, the slv calls are out far enough that Gary will get us out before the D wave. For the AGQ shares, I would put a trailing stop. I myself own 50 july slv 40 calls. I am not selling them until Gary declares the D wave is near. But remember this, silver trades round the clock. It could gap down in the overnight market. This is all IMHO of course. In the end, you have to gauge your risk tolerance and make your decision. Remember if you sell, you can always get back in. Good luck.
we just cracked 49
I remember the 1980 run, when a friend of mine was floored that silver had increased by $5 one day, saying it wasn’t too long ago that silver traded at $5! Knocking on the $49 door folks….tomorrow should be interesting, to say the least, as the silver bullet is leaving the station.
its going to blast through $50. not long now to go
Mindblowing….
oh my fcuking god!!!!! silver is parabolic…going to hit $50!!!!!
holy shmoly….
Paging Mr. Gary.
We need our voice of reason…
The volatility on this candle is crazy… five cent moves in seconds.
sold a chunk right there
This is way better than the reality tv my wife insists on watching at midnite when we feed the baby and there’s nothing on…
its going right back up again…
I was just guessing when I said $50 in the next hour …
Bummer ! It hit $49.75 and I can’t sell !
Slumdog,
appreciate your reply. Thanks.
Please keep posting your analysis.
Was there just 4 swings of over a dollar or is kitco f’ed up?
This is a game of what billionaire has the biggest you know what.
At least Gold is confirming the Silver move. And the dollar is not even dropping yet!
this thing top right there…lol at the people who cant sell
We could witness an epic drop tonight.
I hope this holds till trading opens in the AM.
Wav_ridah,
I was thinking the same thing.
not just yet. reports suggest those where stops that got ran through just now. $49.75 has huge sell order preventing continuance
Thank god we’re stabilizing, even if right under $49.
Hope it’s a short consolidation and pause, mini raid like earlier in the night and we make another run fir $50.
Maybe this barrier is going to be very dicey.
those stops that got ran, if they were shorts going to be sweating tomorrow if dumb money piles in and shots silver past $50. people who had those stops as profit triggers going to wake up with nice realized profits
China is the game changer. They’re proposing to unload 2/3 of their US dollar holding (currently $3 trillion), per Zerohedge.
This Adami guy is scary, $7 gap up he said. Inside info?
who is adami?
Anyone have access to Gary? He’s sleeping under the stars at Smith Rocks I think. Hope he has his trade triggers set.
I would imagine shorts will be covering into the morning, but overnight spikes like this make me anxious.
f
Adami is one of the guys on Fast Money (CNBC). What we said specifically was that he wouldn’t be surprised to see silver go up $7-$8 over a 24 hours period. Not quite the same thing as gapping up. We would need to be in the 53-54 range by tomorrow night or so if he’s right (at least this time around) but who knows. He’s been dead right one silver and dead wrong on gold.
Here is the video (he did make it sound like he was talking to some BIG silver traders but again, who knows):
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000017953
Beanie, your posting is OLD NEWS.
You are talking MSM news. That’s worthless. It causes selling not buying, unless all the china people are buying and that will mean a guaranteed total rape of all the noobs.
The focus here imo should not be on 50 but how to identify the top and how to short or buy puts for the sharp reversal at around 60+.
🙂
TZ, that’s a helluv an Easter present. Thx.
Actually I don’t leave for OR until Wednesday morning. I’ve been stuck up on a big wall here in Red Rocks all day and just got home.
And yes I do not like that huge spike up. Gaps like that are a sign of very emotional trading. Usually it’s better to fade an extreme emotional move. Although no one in their right mind should short silver.
Although once the C-wave is finished there will be a fortune to be made in out of the money puts on silver.
THe way to recognize a top is move up of three bucks or so on 5X average volume or greater. Perhaps tomorrow. THat’s why i hope this holds, but big money will be selling into this all night and into the morning. Just hope there are enough suckers buying to keep the price stable until trading opens manana.
Good luck folks!
f
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Gary,
Given this huge spike up would you still recommend sticking to the plan of $50?
>And yes I do not like that huge spike up. Gaps like that are a sign of very emotional trading.
I actually think somebody’s account just cracked and they got liqudated.
But the question now is whether that was the top for this move or not. Everybody else is watching it just like we are.
If we resume climbing and re-approach 50 I think all heck breaks loose and we open 51 or higher at NYSE time.
That could also have been good enough for many people that are now going to sell into it.
I’m currently betting we resume higher before tomorrow’s open of stocks.
thanks steven…i am watching the video now but the thing is 40 minutes long
Do you guys seriously think this is the “top”?
Sounds like you’re panicking to me.
TZ,
Congratulations….great calls! I hope you stuck through and made a ton there.
Whats your plan from here?
Is the China story new? That certainly could create a blowoff top. I just wonder how large short positions are at this stage of the game. Its hard to imagine shorts having lasted this long. Other than top pickers who have probably been loading up and getting stopped out all the way up.
Razvan – Go about 8 minutes into the video and watch it from there.
Gary says;
“Although once the C-wave is finished there will be a fortune to be made in out of the money puts on silver.”
That’s what I’m talkin bout BABY!
Ride it up, ride it down…
Gitty up little doggie!
LOL @ San Diego Jack
MrMiyagi does not like the look of spikes. Makes people too trigger happy.
Slow, steady climbs make people pause and think.
Go to kitco’s silver forum and read the craziness. Or don’t….
Once the C-Wave is over I’ll prob go majority UUP with some SLV and AGQ puts to juice returns. Also short a little JNK, SPY, etc…
TZ,
Thanks for your analysis. Keep us posted with your thoughts.
Gary, do you have any great Calls on GLD like you did for SLV coming up with the 50?
Is anyone setting up conditional orders not to be executed outside of normal trading hours?
SLV 50.50?
Fusby,
I don’t think UUP is as Dollar reflective as one might think. I am considering FXY, FXE & FXB long instead. Usually, CHF is better, but their currency is based on, I think, 40% gold standard (D Wave).
TZ,
I’m right there with you.
I intend to be out of my (still full) silver futures position within the next 12hrs or so. I haven’t seen what I’m looking for to exit yet.
My trigger is not 50 although that is perfectly fine. I actually think we could see some numbers higher than that.
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Gary:
Does the $$$ “have to” make a new low? Or can the 3 year low be put in say @ 71/72 or even @ 73?
Thanks!
Gary said, “once the C-wave is finished there will be a fortune to be made in out of the money puts on silver.”
Exactly. This is the fortune, fast and smart.
This gapping is bad but the parabola is still in formation, imo.
What are the out of the money puts?
On what? That’s the fortune if the timing is right.
I must cover myself shortly. I need to know the name of the out of the money puts. 1550 is coming. I will soon say adios to part.
Anything can happen. The main reason I think the dollar will make new lows is the left translated nature of the current three year cycle.
Hi de hi campers
My best guess is this action further strengthens garys resolve to execute his 50 buck plan?
Gary?
Gary,
Is public euphoria always present in the last stages of a cycle or C-wave?
Just curious because I’m starting to see that in the PM market.
Anyone have anything negative to say about ZSL?
I think it’s too early to buy puts. The breakout above 50 will crush the shorts who are lining up.
IMO, the game is much bigger than just the floor traders and the small fry. There’s a fortune to harvest on the short side from the entire world by driving silver 10 bucks higher, and the shorts will never have to cover much of anything as the noobs take over from 50 up.
But what do I know. I believe gold at 1547.
Slumdog,
Better off SLV puts.
i’m in singapore and silver(xagusd) reach 49.80 just about 1 hour ago, do we exit tonight when SLV market open?
I would prefer to see all these gains evaporate by the open. Then silver would be set up for a more steady rise to 50.
Mr. M,
Every C-wave finale so far has ended as a parabolic move. Those always create euphoria.
from someone on zerohedge…this hit cnbc site at 12:30am and might have created the spikes in buying
http://www.cnbc{DOT}com/id/42743681
And what if it starts to run, seriously from here, up?
A lot of panicked entries by noobs and those who missed the boat.
And then??? Slaughter on 5th Ave.
I think everyone is so dumbfounded that the plans are in the circular file. The game’s changed and many can’t figure out what to do.
Hence, panic. Straight up, and in a day or two, straight down for a week or two.
But hey, this and a buck will get you a cup’a Joe.
Thanks Gary, as I said, I am starting to see the euphoria and unrealistic 100-150$ price talk.
By the way, my wife and I have been to Red Rock on the tow occasions we visited Las Vegas. No climbing like you but scrambling up some outcroppings a hundred or so feet up affords one with great views.
That CNBC story has a reuters byline, so it went out pretty broadly worldwide.
SLUMDOG,
I think there will be a selloff in silver early this week, however it it will be less deep and less long than people expect.
I think it recovers and then resumes going up with gold to complete whatever is left of this cycle according to gary (making further highs in the process).
Although it is also possible the comex pulls out an extremely high margin or a rule change if they really want to jump on this hard.
Does anybody here encouter with the coming statements from Bernanke on Wednesday I guess. If the dollar is in jeopardy the next days/hours couldn´t it be a perfect moment to make some comments pointing to a stabilization which could trigger say at least a consoldition of silver.
TZ,
Please clarify …
You said in one post you are selling all of your silver futures within 12 hours …
But a shor time later you posted this:
“I think there will be a selloff in silver early this week, however it it will be less deep and less long than people expect. I think it recovers and then resumes going up with gold to complete whatever is left of this cycle according to gary (making further highs in the process).”
That sounds like you are planning to ride it out.
So which is it?
Are selling today, or holding on and riding it out?
BTW, I agree with your last comments.
Clarifying. I intend to exit within about 8 or so hours.
My expectation of what will happen this week is not a scenario I want to bet on by holding. (Although I will attempt to buy any decline that materializes to re-acquire my position (with with a small stop)).
TZ,
Thanks for the clarification.
Can you tell us what you are waiting for? What do you expect to happen in 8 hours?
I am inclined to just hold on, but you have more bullish than most here and if even you are getting out that makes me think I should take some off the table today too.
GottaHave,
The action of late and my various rules and indicators make me want out of silver.
My work makes me expect higher prices than what we have so far tonight, but I won’t wait too long to get them if it doesn’t happen.
I’m not looking for anyting in ‘8 hours’. It’s just a rough window of my patience. Essentially I simply intend to get out this morning sometime and am trying to do the best I can.
Silver may continue up afterward (explosively?). Or go flat. Or drop. I don’t know.
I’m not bailing on the bull or selling my gold futures or anything.
Silver has simply reached a point where my trade (for now) is done for various technical, risk/return reasons. (There is also major news/events this week.)
Should the pullback I expect occur, then I will attempt to rebuy with a tight stop. This is by no means a permanent exit, but I have a history of not grabbing gains when they are good and and I’m not going to make that mistake this time.
I’m not liking the look of this big gap open and spike to $50. It could easily be an exhaustion move, and on a holiday when ETF holders like myself cannot trade.
Wouldn’t surprise me to get trapped in a pullback while sitting on my hands unable to do anything about it.
Thanks to Gary I have a very strong hand, so with that in mind, I’m gonna go out and enjoy the Easter Holiday and come back tomorrow.
To those of you planning to sell your silver stocks/options today …
Do you plan to sell at the open (or pre-market) or will you wait to see how the market plays out this morning before placing your sell orders?
Gary, are you planning to sell your SLV July 40 options today, or will you hold those until later in the C-wave?
I’m watching how the premarket trades. If it pulls back a bit, I’ll hold and watch the open to see what it gives us. A spike at the open and I’ll start lightening up.
THis is just my style though. I like to sell into strength, and I see spikes as being potential topping action as they create big volume and big money needs big volume to sell into.
Mu upside Silver projection based on the Fib 423% level is around $62 but I’m a seller at these levels. I’ve had a good run and I’d rather sell into strength than try and squeeze out the last few pips. Downside is that I’m in a leveraged silver ETF and the UK markets are closed today – I just hope the sell off doesn’t start in the US session today leaving me trapped and unable to get out until tomorrow morning!
Anyone have an idea what AGQ will be when silver spot hits $49.80? Thanks
BTW,
My selling is usually a sign that its going higher : )
Good luck all!
Gary,
Whats up with the huge gap up in silver this morning? This is a little scary IMO. Might it be an exhaustion type move?
I don’t particularly like this kind of gap either.
I don’t think the gap should be feared, but it might be a good time to roll out of AGQ and if still bullish on silver just go to the unleveraged etf’s (SIVR or SLV).
Strellsy,
Why can’t you sell ETF’s today?
Per Zerohedge:
Silver Margin Hikes Begin… And Nobody Notices
The Shanghai Gold Exchange just announced it had raised the level of deposit required for its silver forward contract by 3 percent and may roll out further measures to curb excessive speculation and manage price volatility. According to the SGE, margins on its silver [Ag (T+D)] forward contract would be raised to 15 percent from April 25 compared with the previous 12 percent, according to a notice posted on its website. Silver did not even pretend to react on the news. And the upcoming silver hike by the COMEX will have absolutely the same effect.
Hmm
Looks likke someone noticed. TZ, is that you selling?
Best,
Le Fou
If Silver holds here and resumes climbing we are back in line with the trend from last week. That spike was fun, but we make more money on 2x silver ETFs with a slow and steady increase than a huge spike, (2x daily) plus it is less stressfull.
I was holding out for a higher price closer to NYSE open, but didn’t like the look of this drop here and decided to exit.
OUT of my silver futures around 48.20.
Now we see what happens.
Thank you Fubsy for your contribution! Good Morning Everybody! I know a huge move at the open is making everyone nervous. Better than a gap down I say. Needless to say, we all know the dollar will continue working lower. I have a feeling that Wednesday’s Fed press conference will culminate in a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” moment.
I subscribed to Gary not necessarily to get rich, but to keep from making a stupid mistake. He is loaded with an unusual amount of common sense. I am much more average.
I am highly leveraged. My nature is saying to ride this to 55, but because of my leverage, that would probably be stupid. I will sell my leveraged silver positions at 50 like Gary suggested to begin the process of buying a leveraged position in gold. I expect a pullback Wednesday or Thursday to correspond with Bernanke’s conference to be able to do this. I will keep my slv positions, and keep my slw calls.
Silver futures just went back up over VWAP. I am holding my Silver. I see some strength coming back in.
Gary,
Silver futures hit 49.82 overnight. Is that “close enough”?
Do you trade extended hours or only during regular trading hours?
Good morning everyone,
Does anybody see this possible scenario; silver, because of it`s outrageous rise already moves to the sidelines somewhat in neutral like slw as of late while gold continues on to finish the C wave. If so, this would be an excellent time to move over to the gold trade.
PC,
I’m going to want to see it during normal market hours.
ahh i slept like a baby last night!!
i made a cartload of cash last night and happy to see the price fading away this morning. The boys were obviously gunning for the 50 last night and i think that was it for at least a few days.
Gary,
So does that mean you are not making any moves today unless we hit $50 silver during regular NYSE trading hours?
Any move I make will be posted to the website.
pima – the UK stock market is closed for the Easter Holiday. So I can’t trade my ETF positions.
I have some small futures positions which I lightened up early this morning at $49.25.
So now it is wait and see and hope that there hasn’t been too much damage when the market opens tomorrow.
Gary,
Any info you have now (your thoughts on what is going on, what you are keying off of, strategies, strikes, etc) would be greatly appreciated if you could post them to the premium site. Kind of like what you did last week giving a heads up in the morning on a trade before the close if something happened.
Helpful for us to prepare ahead of time.
Even if it’s a pep talk. 🙂
Strellsy,
I see.
If you’re concerned about an AGQ or SLV position tanking today, you could short silver futures for a hedge (from your post it sounds like you can trade futures today).
I came across a very interesting article from January 2008 where a group who followed, tracked and analyzed silver over the long term was very bullish on it and making the case for much, much higher values. We know what happened a few months later.
http://www.zealllc.com/2008/cpisilver2.htm
I then went to their homepage and found their silver update in 2001 from early March. What a riot. This article is quite different. THey are preaching a “once bitten twice shy” attitude and giving warning that silver is too high and getting too risky. Well, we know what has happened in the past 4 weeks!
http://www.zealllc.com/2011/silvtop2.htm
It just goes to show that not even the “experts” know what they are doing.
A lot of what Gary says is intertwined in their philosophy, interestingly. For one, they outline you will never catch the top or bottom and just cannot make the calls in real time.
Is anyone else curious what went down last night with the big boys? Especially with it being Easter Sunday.
Most are with families, getting rest for the upcoming week.
With the runaway silver – I wonder what phone calls were being made around the horn of billionaires, traders, central banks and bank execs (not to mention Ben and Blythe).
Were they sound asleep, sleeping like a baby, were they woken up by a spouse, relative or colleague or were they working, leading the charge?…
You got to believe that years (maybe months) from now, there will be books/movies written about all this.
Hot Rod,
Turn off your computer and do something else today. We have a perfectly good game plan. Just have the discipline to follow it.
If anything needs to be done I will post it to the website. But you already know what the triggers are.
weekly floor pivot R1 on june gold at 1516, on may silver the WR1 is 47.77 …weekly floor pivots get respected over and over in all the futures, like last week on gold the WR1 was at 1501.7 and we waffled around there quite awhile
http://www.mypivots.com/dailynotes
Some normalcy would do fine this morning, not this crazy juvenile buying (yet).
I have started to sell and will be switching to DGP. Just sold some AGQ at the opening.
DG,
Why do you invest in DGP instead of UGL ? Any reason ? DGP is a ETN, UGL a ETf….
Thks.
Does anyone know any good push notification software for twitter on the IPHONE? I would like to know when Gary makes changes to his portfolio so I can change mine right away. Hopefully the notification has a nice alarm tone to it as well. THanks!
people and machines are just trading now on technicals.
no one knows this is going to end up..
i hope it just goes mad crazy in May and the miners have the time to go up as well. I’m looking for HUI 620 to take things off the table.
Dollar is terribly weak as we all know, if it slams to 71.8 level woah there going to be some serious fireworks, another 15%?
go go go
Good morning DG,
Are you buying DGP as you are selling AGQ, or will you wait to buy in the hopes that we will actually get a move down into a daily cycle low?
Niven,
You can set up text messages on your twitter account for “garysavage1.”
Hot Rod>>
I tried doing that.. your talking about the one where I have to input my phone number right? Apparently I can’t enter my phone number since I live in none of the selected locations.
My twitter tag is garysavage1.
Whenever anything gets posted to the website it also automatically sends out a tweet.
If you sign up for tweety mail it will send you an email that I have tweeted. You will then know to go to the website and check out the new post.
PC bought some DGP as this thing could just take off again at any time and the drawdown ought to be small even if we do dip.
Neo: No reason. I expect to be in this trade for just a few weeks or so. ETN has more company specific risk, but nothing is going to happen that soon.
Wow,
The emotional frenzy on the blog since last night is crazy!!
I guess this is a good thing?
The action over night looked scary to me, was worried we wouldn’t make it through. But now we’re well into the trading day and it’s holding up, in spite of what must have been a decent amount of profit taking. I’m encouraged to think if we can hold the strong over night action for another hour or so we could be clear for $50+
Watching like a hawk here.
Neo,
Yes DGP is an ETN and is accompanied by a default risk of the issuer.
But the plan is not to hold it longer than 6 wks or so.
And it is more liquid and I think tracks gold better.
Just MHO.
Gary>>
Yeah I added you on twitter…I’m just trying to set it so that I can get your message as a push notification. There should be an app for this.. I’ll look for it 🙂
I took partial profits into the open.
hello all,
Can someone refresh my memory please. When GAry decides to turn his silver etf into a gold etf will he sell his position in SLW or does he ride that until the end?
should i ditch the miners i invested in about a month ago…slw, ng, exk and switch over to a gold or silver leveraged etf?
from mid march when i bought the above miners, agq is up 35 percent, but my account is actually in the red.
are the miners ever going to catch or take off?
Only Silver. I’m not touching miners.
Mitchell,
They will take off right after you sell them.
UBS upgraded slw to BUY.
should i use the rest of my powder on the next pullback to get in on a leveraged gold etf? or wait for the D wave bottom?
Over 34 million shares of SLV have traded today.
I might eventually buy miners again, but their performance has been abysmal lately. Soon they might not have a strong stock market OR metals to hold them up, if metals pull back at all.
silver now off $3 from this mornings high. Buying some here.
Can anyone tell me what SLV will be at $50 silver?
Ah yes… finally, some normal prices.
I bet this has shaken up some people already, their dreams of instant wealth vaporized.
What a stunning reversal from last night and the wee hours of this morning. A complete evaporation of those gains.
That tells me the Big Boyz got to their desks and decided to do some shearing of some sheeple.
if anyone cares to know what I did, i switched out most of my AGQ right beefore the nosedive, and bought some DGP right after the nosedive… i also ditched my slw at a loss, i figure if silver corrects, slw will correct even more.. still holding a little bit of AGQ to see what happens…
Catbird,
I witnessed the AH price in silver up 3.09. I actually laughed out loud when I saw it.
It is my opinion that the Good Friday closure is the reason for the price spike. I don’t know what kind of volume trades overseas but it would have been light enough that it did not support the gain.
On the other hand, if it was a downtrend, it would have continued. Go figure!
I’ve taken a small position in DGP. Will add on further weakness in gold.
I’m going to have to see more weakness in silver before buying more.
I’m not buying anything yet, but still have plenty of faith in the bull.
I’m not sure Silver is ready to roll over right here, but the way it’s acting and where it’s come from, one thing you can bank on is a massive drop, this week, IMO. The volume on SLV is unreal already. 42m in 40 minutes!
If Silver touches $49.50 by tomorrow or Wed, I’m putting in a “Lottery Play” on the SLV $45 puts, using the new weekly strikes, so expiring this Friday. So it will be a play on a mini collapse. Lottery play of course, so no more than say 0.5%-1.0% trade.
I think that, over the course of the day, the price will crawl back up to the highs of the morning / premarket.
Are we not waiting for a $25-35 drop in gold to confirm a runaway move? I will buy back in then.
If you take away the Friday to Monday morning move, it will look like a normal progression.
Got out at the open at 363.31 on AGQ and now 100% cash minding the old adage that “pigs get slaughtered”.
I have nothing to back this up with but my intuition based on 20 years of watching the markets, but I expect SI to drop down a few bucks from here, run up to make a nominal high (a tad over $50) and then crumble. That scenario, I suppose, would cause the most amount of pain to the greatest number of people.
The GL chart, on the other hand looks delicious now. Once it descends into its already overdue daily low I would go back into the PMs with DGP. Given the size of this base $1650 gold looks very feasible.
I am sticking with Gary’s plan. No selling here!
Salty,
Why buy now? Its up 25% in past 7 days or so.
By the way, this fills the Thursday-Monday gap nicely.
Sticking with the plan and with a strong hand
Miners getting more grief than anything though
Lol all
GDX down mainly on ABX buying out some miner.
Fells like window wipers!
SLV popping stops left and right with 57 million shares now. Amazing.
Oh well, so much for that. I didn’t hang around, out.
Let’s see where it goes.
Look at big, “safe” gold miner ABX today. Getting creamed.
Sold the SLW I bought last week at break even (I rarely allow profits to turn into losses). Am out of 1/2 my AGQ, and bought less DGP (so far).
Could this be the correction we are looking for? Or is this too insignificant?
arun,
just dipping in my toe. Lots of dry powder. Just added more at $46.
If it goes to 45, I’ll add some more…
I think it runs back up to near 50, setting up a double top.
I still think Gary will be right that silver hits $50 before really breaking down. (the “what would cause the most pain to the most sheeple?” approach rarely fails)
That said, there would be some nice coin to be made on the journey from $45 to $50. I will be a buyer at $45 if we make it there.
If not, I’m doing fine. I was going to throw in an “Everything is OK” but I don’t want to steal SB’s line.
Gold is now down 1 dollar. The moves in silver dont mean anything.
For those of you expecting massive selling when silver hit $50 this may be it.
Meanwhile, I’m just sitting back watching the show “old turkey” style.
I agree with catbird and Gary.
The bull is not finished, and even $50 might prove too conservative.
Of course there will be temporary pain along the way, but that’s all it is.
Gee, who opened the clogged drain. LOL
Anyone know what SLV would be at $50.00 POS? Seems like a dollar and change differential or so; my best guess is 48.95 SLV. Thoughts? I want to set my conditional sell orders…
Sold my remaining 60% this morning. Back to cash. Huge reversal on big volume….should be very interesting the next few days.
Another must-read report from FMXConnect:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/Market%20Manipulation%20Part%203.pdf
As mentioned according to my plan…I am out of silver at this point..either sold, or bought put protection…did it at the open. Last night was close enough for me, and the gap open seemed like a good chance to protect myself.
I do all this in violation of my Turkey trading style…parabolic moves are at least my exception to the rule….I, like many on this blog, still have old trading scars that haven’t gone away…so perhaps I am really too early due to my sensitivity to parabolic rises…when I see these things I get real real nervous.
Good Hunting to all!
Here the last update to the chart I posted 12th of April. The similarities to 2006, circled, led me to think a parabolic move was straight ahead, as mentioned in the post at that time, even if it was hard to believe something like that could happen straight ahead.
Now it has alrady exceeded 2006.
A transparent layover, the first top before an important consolidation several weeks ago aligned, see how similar tonights breakdown is to 2006.
2006 2011
Miners are facing huge cost pressures.
via Bill Cara blog…
“…we believe the improving NEM story is largely factored into the shares, given the stock is trading at 1.4x our NAV estimate and 6.0x and 7.0x our 2012/13 EBITDA estimates, respectively. Further, NEM still faces significant underlying cost pressures (cash costs were better than guidance, but were still +9% sequentially and +16% y/y), and substantial capital spending requirements to achieve the 6-year volume growth targets, chewing up a significant amount of FCF by our estimates (NEM is generating basically no FCF in 2012 vs. the average FCF yield of 6.8% for the broader US metals & mining stocks under coverage). Accordingly, we maintain our Neutral rating… Raising Estimates – We are raising our 2011 estimate from $3.56 to $3.72, due to the better than expected Q1 results, and due to our view NEM’s cash costs will likely be at the low end of management’s target range. We are maintaining our 2012 and 2013 estimates of $3.67 and $3.07, respectively. Our estimates are based on 2011 gold and copper price assumptions of $1,375/oz & $4.56/lb, and 2012 gold and copper price assumptions of $1,350/oz and $4.50/lb, respectively.
To summarize:
Zero growth in Free Cash Flow caused by rapidly increased costs and CS projections for decreasing Price of Gold. Earnings to fall from $3.72 (2011), to $3.67 (3.67 (2012), to $3.07 (2013).
Maybe this helps explain why so many gold/silver miners have fallen behind the recent bullion price curve.”
trond56,
Do you think we have a lot more downside to come in silver?
If this key reversal holds then under-invested traders need to prepare their trade triggers. This will be your opportunity to get in.
Good Trade WES. I should have done the same seeing it was up 5%. Don’t like the action here, volume already 2nd highest ever after 90 min. SLV on Stock Charts already clearly printing a big reversal, IMO.
i think the parabola move is broken if silver trades below $41
if not. it’s game on.
Gary, you might be right, but I don’t recall seeing a big reversal like this holding and launching to new highs. Interesting to say the least.
Gary,
This reversal is happening without the expected weakness in the dollar. Do you think that gold/silver will continue to rally (after the trigger) even in the face of a dollar bounce in the next week or two?
Folks this isn’t over yet. But a key reversal on huge volume is going to make you think it is.
The fact is that key reversals rarely signal final tops. Usually they are recovered and new highs are made within 7-10 days.
I expect it will be quicker than 10 this time. This will just be the normal corrective move that happens in runaway markets.
Does anyone know if the free Tweetymail serve that Gary recommends works? Or do you have to sign up for one of their fee services? I don’t recall getting the April 22 trigger notification.
Gary,
A trade trigger won’t activate for a while. We haven’t reached the target yet. What are you talking about?
sell me your metals
i’m ready to pick up at 1490 gold, and 41 silver.
I am still on the sell on gold I got last week. A dip here will fulfill it and then we can start up again. My analysis agrees with Gary’s that a dip to $1480 is coming.
Instead of tweetymail, just go into your twitter account and next to gary’s name there is a check box that will allow you to receive texts when he posts. Its more reliable and you don’t need any extra programs.
Chrys, the tweetymail notification has never worked for me. I’m not sure why, but maybe someone else will have some helpful tips.
Michael,
I’m not saying to buy here. Just be prepared to let you trader trigger work. Don’t let your emotions prevent you from jumping on the opportunity that’s coming (hopefully).
Had a very similar day back in December which was not a key reversal.
http://screencast.com/t/IcuTNZqiroM
Key reversals rarely mark final tops. In tonight’s report.
They sure know how to shake those trees. Now the plan is to add more once we start crying.
With gold/silver options expiring tomorrow, and the Fed meeting tomorrow and Wednesday (with Ben giving his first live press conference after the meeting!!!), this weakness should be a 3 or 4 day affair. We’ll probably see the daily cycle low on Wednesday or Thursday.
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Thanks, Poly
I’m still almost 50% invested in silver calls, with a huge cash position.
I can go either way, here, but thought carrying 100% exposure at a stretched $48 was a little rich.
Don’t we only get a “key reversal” if we “close below yesterday’s low” which would be $45.06?
There is no reversal without trading below Thursday’s low.
Cramer says:
“Leave room for a downdraft for gold after Ben Bernanke speaks on Wednesday. If he does anything that will be interpreted as a reason to sell bonds — and therefore raise interest rates — gold will get hurt, as it thrives in low-interest-rate environments.
But remember, gold has outperformed all assets in the last decade — all of them — in both high and low interest rates, so don’t expect too big a downturn. Way too many people want in, and way too many have too little exposure. No wonder it keeps going higher! “
Major money going back into Silver now…is this just a bull trap?
Yeah, they “manage” the dollar up and gold down for Bernanke and the Fed meetings and when he goes before Congress. It’s all stage managed.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&b=9&g=0&id=p62132920389&a=232304735
A pullback in gold to the 10ema would be healthy.
Maybe this was the “Big Dip”
Today we dropped from a high of almost $50 to a low of about $45.60 … that’s an 8.8% drop in one day.
Now silver prices are headed back up.
Maybe this was the scary big drop we’ve all been trying to avoid.
If I told you last week that silver prices would drop almost 9% in one day, many would have agreed that would qualify as a BIG correction.
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http://gyazo.com/da5fd909fcc1b4cc3464d719b96ff170.png
GLD chart posted earlier
http://gyazo.com/a26bd191e54c32d17a1261d86ba4dac8
Trying that GLD chart again :>)
Chrys, Jennifer, James …
The tweety thing never worked for me either … I clicked that box but I’ve never gotten anything either… I gave up.
Hi Gary,
Gold made a high of 1519 and low of 1501. Does this qualify as a correction in runaway move.
V
V,
It’s a little lite but it’s possible.
Just sold all my AGQ on this bounce up and bought DGP.
The only silver I am still holding is my physical.
While I am thinking that silver has more upside, it’s becoming too much of a roller coaster for my taste, and I prefer a bit more peace of mind.
Guess what’s at the TOP of the SoS list today.
AGQ
But get this: -29 million total money flow but ZERO in block trades. Smart money is not selling.
SLV is also on the list near the top. -14 million total money flow, but +2 million in block trades. Again, I read that as smart money is not selling.
Yet.
FWIW, I think they make 1500 look strong enough and sucker in more longs before bashing it below 1500… its a pattern Ive seen before at major round numbers.
Of course one could just follow the plan 🙂
I’m glad I bought at 46 and 47 this morning. Gary’s comments gave me the courage. I made a mistake and sold too much back on April 12. Its been killing me watch the rise from 42 to 50 with only my physical.
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gary,
for those of us still looking to invest some capital what do we do if the trigger of 144.25 GLD doesn’t hit?
buy into the strength?
This has to be an exhaustion short term top for at least a few days. AGQ trading 4.5 million and half the day is not even over yet. Man, once this reverses, its going to dive quick because everyone will exit at the same time.
Turning out to be a ho-hum day save for the early morning shenanigans.
NEW YORK,, you are giving out info for just subs.
Yes you won’t have any choice. If you think gold is going to $1650 like me you could buy into strength today and still have huge upside potential.
Even buying into silver here still has considerable upside till $50. Heck it’s only at $47.75. And it does appear the market is determined to see $50 before any real profit taking occurs.
Yeah, please don’t post anything from the subscription only posts that Gary provides us. It isn’t fair to us or Gary.
For the benefit of my fellow “turkeys” out there … I’m up 6.3% so far today … did not sell a single share. I am in AGQ and SLV Calls bought on Gary’s lead.
Sticking to the plan!
Gusto,
That huge volume came from the early morning sell off. An exhaustion move would gap up then soar higher only to fade into the end of day.
That volume is buying pressure not exhaustion.
The rules for a parabolic move are different than any other market condition.
Gary,
Good place to pick up some GDX here?
Traderlady, I don’t think that single piece of info out of context will do anyone much good without the plan, eh?
Gary, gotcha.
So pick myself up by my bootstraps and saddle up? Weather a little downside if need be?
580 does appear to be support for the HUI (GDX).
Thanks.
miners just can’t seem to get it going…
soo frustrating to watch these miners
@Gottahaveit,
Got to love old turkey! Just follow the plan, eh Gary 🙂
NY, Got it, up or down. 🙂
They look like they are building a nice base above 580 to me.
Glad you hung in there last night Blake. Feels good (for now anyway)…
is this base the runaway move spot for the miners?
Remember that Friday a bunch of weeks ago where silver crashed and made a huge run – it was a $2.60 move from bottom to peak.
Today, we are about 50 cents away from breaking that.
Just breathtaking.
I’m getting way too spoiled in that I expect every correction will have a V shaped bounce.
From http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Trading-Volume-Explodes-ETFTrends-1775797685.html?x=0&.v=1
Trading volume in an exchange traded fund (ETF) that bets against silver surged to a record on Monday amid volatile action in the metal’s price.
More than 14 million shares of ProShares UltraShort Silver (NYSEArca:ZSL) traded Monday morning as the ETF was poised to break its volume record set last week.
ProShares UltraShort Silver is designed to produce daily returns that correspond to 200% of the inverse performance of silver bullion.
The so-called leveraged inverse ETF was up more than 2% in recent trading Monday as silver saw earlier gains disappear.
The people who bought ultrashort silver chasing the drop down are getting smoked right now.
I like to see buying in the inverse silver, they will have to cover at some point and drive us higher for the big move:)
The market always overreacts.
Thanks, KAL! Ya, I was a little anxious late last night and this morning to say the least!
Those who short silver deserve the basting they get. 🙂
Once the miners find their daily cycle bottom, they will slingshot higher to “catch up with” gold/silver during the final parabolic daily cycle in the C-wave.
This volatility is insane, this is either an afternoon relief rally or that was it for the correction. I have a feeling it’s the lateral. This thing probably won’t peak until all the top callers are sick and tired(or bankrupt) of trying to time these corrections with reverse etfs/options.
well I am not selling anything here..just following the plan myself. I am kinda pissed I was out and didn’t pick up some silver at the 45.70 area..oh well probably get another chance this week when the sub humans start their bullish talk on the toilet paper defaced with “in god we trust”.
Shalom…everything is ok right? Or are you preparing for your “managed” q and a session. Since you already know what will be asked I really don’t want to see you fumble your big chance this week. You could be a somebody after this week.
SB, You always continue to comfort!!!
Natanarchist,
Don’t worry, I’m on it. Everything is OK and getting better all the time.
That’s the jist of it. 🙂
Hey shalom..when your signing..’its getting better all the time”..your buddy Geithner is signing harmony..”it couldn’t get much worse”
you guys must have been listening to The Beatles.
Shalom: LOL! I’m glad you’ve memorized your script. Maybe you should reverse your initials?
Geithner and Bernanke are two heads of the same snake. It’s an act that they disagree, and only serves to confuse those that haven’t figured it out.
Posturing while attempting to justify their existence, nothing more.
ooops, did I just say that?
We are definitely in a “wear you out”
phase with the miners. Someone pointed out that May is typically a solid month for returns in the miners, with a intermediate top on the way late May/June, they should catch a strong bid.
Gary’s triangle break out is still in play. A close under that top blue line might have me scratching my head, but so far they are hold strong.
HUI
SB: Very well put. I like that: “…two heads of the same snake.”
Gary,
Was there a weekend report?
Need suggestions,
I’m wanting to add miners to my investments. Do you prefer SIL or NUGT at this point?
Thanks,
Russ
http://gyazo.com/9488940871593204d49ff95279c67b8f.png
We will need a breakdown of this hourly uptrend line before we can hope to reach the next trendline support.
http://gyazo.com/a26bd191e54c32d17a1261d86ba4dac8
Bought UGL, GDXJ, ANV, GORO, AAU, in that order.
Interestingly, when I tried to buy DGP I was notified that it was “not authorized for online trading”. The grand conspiracy at work, perhaps?
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/apmex-out-silver-eagles-until-may-13
Just a brief game to pass the time. Does this look bullish or bearish to you? Would you buy it or bet against it? I will reply back in a few minutes with what it is.
http://screencast.com/t/LDGSThJEN
We have now clearly entered an intermediate gambling stage.
Duuuude looks like bearish engulfing candle. I say bear
It was the silver miner ETF SIL. Looks poised for a breakout to me.
SIL. The pattern still looks bullish to me.
I see that Done.
SB,
Is that basting the short silver turkey? `Til the skin is a silverish brown? LOL!
Thursday was the weekend report.
I am just about ready to give up on miners. I’ve had enough.
thinking about to selling it all.
maybe I should be the ‘sacrificial lamb’.
Yeah sure, why not.
also, it looks like most high volume days in the past have been reversal days
any thoughts about the impact of the Fed conference this week and whether we ought to be prepared for something out of left field on Wednesday?
Gary!
You wrote this earlier today. It seems that you expected a pullback in silver after the run in the morning?
“I would prefer to see all these gains evaporate by the open. Then silver would be set up for a more steady rise to 50”
The gains did evaporate..
I expect something out of left field every day. Just all in a day’s work for the interventionist government.
Yes, indeed
DAVID
I like that, and thx for reminding me to look at AAU and ANV.
I was going to be away this morning and awoke to silver up $2.50! Wow, so I looked at a few holdings and decided to sell my AXU at the gap open, since it had a gap at $9.50-and 1/2 my EXK, which was one of my larger miners holdings. (still love that chart pattern).
Looking at GOLD charts I already bought GORO and HMY , and Today I bought EGO. I rode EGO and IAG and AUY up in 2009 , and it went stale. Now I really like that set-up.
http://www.screencast.com/t/JAVSZxd1d8
http://www.screencast.com/t/3JNpnHloxq
http://www.screencast.com/t/QPKPPPRLV
F.W.I.W.
GORO could form a handle and pullback further (see wkly chart),
if its on light volume…I will prob buy more.
http://www.screencast.com/t/QPKPPPRLV
I got out of AGQ as per my last post, on the bounce , but haven’t yet gotten into DGP. Will hold cash for now.
David,
Interesting – I’ve got no barrier to buying DGP
(through Schwab.)
Thanks for publishing your list. Ugly at the top!
I’m thinking it’s quite possible that a move above $50 in silver could prompt a lot of short-covering. Plus plenty who have sold will jump right back in on the breakout. You can pretty well count on that.
Not saying it will happen, but a viable enough scenario so I’m standing pat with my futures and SLV option positions.
“They also serve who only stand and wait.” — John Milton
Russell
By them both, that’s what I did.
SLW headed for $40 or last chance at $41?
I started a small purchase of DGP
on TDAmer. with no problem. 🙂
David: I can’t even imagine what “DGP is not available for online purchases” even means. I use E*Trade and buy and short all sorts of stuff and never seen such a thing.
Alex, I have EGO and GOLD
Hui/xau are incredibly weak today, down over 2% with gold/silver up and the general markets only down a few points.
What can be the reason that miners are down? Anybody adding here?
Haggerty, GDX fill the gap from Thursday. I may buy some more June calls before close.
Added GDX 55 Calls this AM. They can’t be kept down much longer. IMO
Topped off GDX calls earlier today as well.
Bob,
I saw you are going to Maui. Make sure to check out Saigon Cafe in Wailuku (Rice in a clay pot is a winner) and local favorite Sam Sato’s (best Dry Mien noodles). Also Sansei (Kihei) for some of the freshest sushi made for man and Mama’s Fish House (Paia) for the day’s fresh catch. Shorts and slippers all day. Aloha Oe.
Thanks for the suggestions. I had a birthday party at Sansei before. We love their food. Mama’s overated iMO. I will definitely eat at the Wailuku restaurants.
GDX looks like a monster inverse H&S to me with an upside target around $74. http://screencast.com/t/1KkgQhzO
If interested-
3.30 interview on CNBC with ROB
Mc Ewen, c.e.o. of UXG former GG c.e.o.
He is predicting $5000 gold in nxt 5 yrs.
The 5000-8000$ gold and 500-1000$ silver predictions are just nuts.
$5000 gold seems pretty reasonable to me.
$500 silver seems a bit optimistic.
GPL has been taken to the woodshed.
I still believe there is more pain for the miners.
James
Duude, I just bought 100 June 70 GDX calls. I will sell weeklies to bring down my basis.
$5,000.00 Gold seems likely to me in the next three to four years…
Check out this blog another tracker posted a few days ago. Very long but worth the read is it puts such a large number like 5000 in our economic context…
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/04/deflation-or-hyperinflation.html
Bob, I committed my mining funds to $38 SLW calls a month ago. They are still just over $5.00 which is what I paid for them.
Yes, H. I am averaging up, sometimes down, here with a miner or two. My instinct tells me that no c-wave finale will come without miner participation; the market is just too thin. When you least expect it. May take awhile. Have a drink.
GPL (Great Panther Silver) has announced a new corporate name and stock symbol. LKS (Little Kitty Silver).
Eric Sprott has added this to his portfolio which includes other powerhouse silver plays such as SLW (Silver Weaken)
Hey now, hang in there I feel the big move in these miners is in front of us.
The action in the silver miners is very ominous.
As for Great Panther: Its longtime holders (both big and small fry) have endured broadside broad plank beatings before. Yeah, looks bad for awhile, then pow! Last fall watching the daily uptick took my breath away (note, no mention of this spring’s insane runup). I believe GPL will participate in the finale. At least, I hope?
I feel we will get a wash out event around the Benank’s press conference. Very likely it is going to be in the morning before the conference. In the conference he will just the only thing he knows to do (i.e. rev up the Apache).
There might be some truth to the hedge funds hedging the PM book with miners. The miners are behaving very badly given all the froth in the PMs. Any PM correction will likely force an unwind of the trade.
47.36$ at the NYSE close.
This is more the move I was expecting, not that stupid 3 dollar jump that I’m sure lost a lot of people money today.
Bob Loves Hawaii,
Thanks for posting your specific options trade.
For those of us “playing at home” it’s very helpful to see exactly what you and the other experienced options traders are buying and selling so we can learn and eventually start making options trades on our own.
I encourage Wes, Poly, MrMiyagi, Wav_riddah and all the other options traders (I apologize for not listing you by name) to please
post the specific option contracts you are buying (for example “SLV July 40”).
I don’t need to know how many contracts you are buying (unless you want to share) but I’d really like to know the stock, strike price and expiry date.
Thank you!
David-
I see you went with UGL over DGL.
I was watching DGL and it struck me as a very thinly traded vehicle, with these penny stock ticks for price action.
http://www.screencast.com/users/Jayhawk1991/folders/Jing/media/005e5497-403c-46e9-9f29-c3fe014b69fd
I know it averages more volume, but if you look at it’s history that volume seems to come in big chunks on certain days. Then, other days it looks pathetic.
UGL looks a bit more normal & smooth to me. I’m leaning towards using UGL, but everyone here is jumping on the DGL ticker (besides you).
SLV Oct 39
SLV Jul 40
SLV May 40, bought by mistake, I thought I entered Jul 40.
Jay,
The ticker for the ultra gold fund is DGP not DGL
Thanks Mr. M!
Dive in Silver past 30 minutes needs to be watched closely, lost all the support built up from the morning drop on the 1-5 minute charts. Strong volume.
Jayhawk,
Having just bought a bunch I can say that UGL is very thinly traded.
My orders had to be broken up into small lots and took a while to fill. I still managed to get filled at decent prices, though.
It’s not like AGQ where you can sell big blocks and have them wolfed down in one gulp.
Gold Miners are still looking OK.
If $HUI were to close below 570….., well that would be a problem.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$HUI&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p51711345174&a=229779543&listNum=1
http://gyazo.com/f6a17f4e75be6c6d30c26f810caac840.png
Ah, that makes sense Gary.
There is a DGL by Powershares that is listed as w double gold fund.
DGP looks MUCH better.
I think it’s just general weakness in stocks. SLW was upgraded from Neutral to Buy.
NFLX reported lower guidance, stock down about 3% (8$) AH.
This might swing confidence of the mass market tomorrow, especially if AMZN reports less than expected.
Am I wrong on this observation?
PK,
I think you’re wasting your time trying to chart breakdown points on the HUI. During the last correction the HUI dipped all the way to 520. At the time everyone was convinced this was a broken chart.
Look what happened three weeks later. New all time highs.
As long as the HUI, or more importantly gold, keeps making higher highs and higher lows that’s the only thing that matters.
The miners are probably just smelling out an approaching daily cycle low and as they are more volatile than gold they a selling off harder. Once the correction is complete I have no doubt miners will make big new highs.
SIL has a gap at 26.
I would not be surprised that gap gets fill.
Almost 189M traded on SLV today. WOW.
I wanted to buy GDX but wanted to save my USD for DGP if we get that pullback. So I bought XGD.TO, it’s very similar to GDX. Does anyone have anything bad to comment about XGD.TO?
I know miners can go berserk and have done so whenever bullion has, but they really have shown next to little life during this INT cycle. We could work off the assumption they will get going as in the past and have faith they will, but to say they look good here is probably a little wishful, IMO. There is risk (equities correlation) that all though we’re on the right trade (Long Bullion + Miners) we come at with less than desirable returns for picking a blow off C-Wave.
The Silver miners showed us little (relative) strength in light of parabolic Silver movements. They should have gone berserk, they did no such thing. (I’m not talking Juniors)
If these Gold miners are to shine, then the one KEY requirement is Gold getting to Gary’s $1,650 target, belief in the C-Wave and gold as the driver. So in that case, why not just play that requirement and not worry about miners? Play GLD with like a June $140 call? Plenty of volume and a good spread and in the money enough to bail without getting destroyed.
Pick them up for $6.50 on the next $20 gold dip (Say $1,490 Gold) and dump them for $22.50 at Gold $1,650, C-Wave top. If Gary is right, then that’s 250% to the top.
XGD.TO matches GDX almost to a tee.
Volume is around 300k.
http://gyazo.com/2429c04cbb5fe0761ff76581c0774199.png
Thanks for your comment Gary.
I understand your point. It is just that I think that 570 will be safe and I do not expect a close below that point.
A long term, multi-year chart shows that 520 was actually good support.
I do not own any miners. I am trading exclusively AGQ and will be following your lead to switch from gold to silver but not until you make your move.
I have been in since early February and my returns have been spectacular!
I started by reading your Blog and two weeks later became a subscriber. That was the best investment of a life-time!
“””””””””””””
Too all the lurkers on this Blog…., you are really missing out if you are not yet a subscriber.
“””””””””””””
Thanks MrMiyagi. I’m just dipping back into miners now. When Gary makes his portfolio change, I think I’m going to go DGP and just a bit of GDX/XGD.TO to ride the rest of the c-wave. I still don’t like the volume of HBU.TO and just watching it today vs DGP it barely moves. I think I’m going to have to change more USD to get into DGP.
Folks the only thing that is happening with miners is they’ve been trying to discount a daily cycle correction for the past two weeks. They’ve been early.
Eventually gold will put in the cycle low and then gold and miner will be off to the races.
“I do not own any miners. I am trading exclusively AGQ and will be following your lead to switch from gold to silver but not until you make your move.”
Obviously I meant to say “switch from SILVER to GOLD”
Gary, I intend to put a small percentage of my portfolio into OTM SLV puts when the C-Wave is over. Assuming the D-Wave regresses to the 200 dma I will choose a strike price above that mark when I purchase. I’m looking at July for a strike date. Will you cover a put purchase for your subscribers? I realize that you recommend never shorting a bull but limiting my risk with options and keeping my size small feels like the right way to go about it. Thanks.
I am wondering if action like today’s:
A) Scares new buyers from entering, or
B) Entices new buyers because they see 46.90$ as a bargain.
I bet a lot of newbies are crappin’ themselves after buying in this morning.
Other people’s euphoria is good for level headed people.
Gary
Since you feel that Gold will put in a strong move into 3 year dollar low, will you move your mining shares focus to GDXJ and NUGT from SIL.
Mission,
I will discuss that when the time is right. We are still a long way from that at this point though.
Mission, and July will be way too soon for your expiry month. Think October.
the $silver chart looks like an exhaustion candlestick to me. Plus the high volume makes it look a BIG TOP
Gary,
any thoughts?
Poly-
I’m interested in the GLD calls strategy.
Can you walk through the amount per 100K in the portfolio like you did with the SLV DITM calls?
Let’s say it’s 20K per 100K in GLD options. What are you doing with your cash? Are you going to be riding the SLV calls too and thus be 200% or more invested.
Nike
Gary already commented on why he doesn’t think its an exhaustion candle
Vish,
It may be a short term exhaustion candle but I don’t think it’s the end of the C-wave.
GDX/HUI touching the 20dma today.
Poly,
I am intrigued by your idea of buying GLD calls as a certain way of getting nice leverage without buying mining ETFs.
Hi Jayhawk,
Not really rocket science and no set strategy, it’s really just a hybrid version of Gary’s cycles/trades, but with applying a little more leverage and risk. The main difference has been just investing in Silver at a 6x (average) rate (using DIM’s). Buying mainly fairly deep in the money calls, buying dips aggressively and buying some at the money calls (15%) and a small percentage (5%) of OTM calls at INT lows only.
The real key is not getting scared of the leverage, but only buying (for the most part) the bulk at the INT low and adding at daily cycle lows. Ignoring the wiggles is key (accounts can move 10% plus on volatile days) and ride the calls within Gary’s cycles, they are key!
It really helped that he nailed BOTH INT cycle bottoms, almost to the day! When he called it, I just went big and held.
I was only ever fully invested twice, towards the top last Dec and right at the last daily cycle top, I then sold most of it when Silver hit that $41-$42 mark. Most other times it’s around 20-50% cash, it varies with Gary’s cycles, closing calls as it gets heated and near timing bands for cycle lows and adding heavy right at the dip.
I know Gary wouldn’t approve, but he is one hell of a market timer, I figure I will bet on that.
For example now I got out thinking we were going to top, I had to much leverage. I missed most of this last two weeks. But if we drop hard and print an overdue cycle low, I will know its relatively clear to invest freely and heavy.
Hope that explains it?
Jay,
For the GLD, I’m thinking about 20% or in your example, $20k. If we get the Silver correction and daily low, it will be a good percentage in SLV, say $60k in your example. I will look for something special with the remainder $20k, seeing that this might be the final cycle for some time. Maybe a good chuck of ATM SLV’s and GLD’s. I will keep 10% free to start adding to a Put hedge and eventual D-Wave play.
DG,
Do you think tomorrow will be a big down day in AGQ as you mentioned a couple of weeks ago? As in don’t be a day late but acouple of hours is ok?
Got it Poly.
So basically you are taking up to 90% of your portfolio and buying 100% options with that cash?
20% GLD, 60% SLV (if we get a daily cycle low, clearly printed) and the other 10-20 cash or other “lottery” picks?
So what you do is way more aggressive that what Gary recommends, obviously.
I have one account I can get nuts with, the other one I would be on the street begging for food if I blew it out. BUT, I would like to add some juice to it and quite frankly I sick and tired of these freaking miners.
Yes with 90% invested that’s WAY above and mainly in preparation for a final blow off, BUT I wont be adding a thing without a nice correction in Silver, just to be sure. I feel more comfortable adding the GLD with a little $20-$30 drop to mark a cycle low.
Well that’s just my plan for now, it might not be what happens, I tend to make decisions on the fly, depending on my feel for the action.
This comment has been removed by the author.
Poly,
Hmm….that’s more leverage than I’m going to use.
Besides, Gary would kick my butt.
Still, I think I will buy GLD calls if/when Gary’s trade trigger is hit.
JAYHAWK: I saw your earlier “triangle breakout” chart of the HUI. And your remark that if HUI closed under the top line, you “might be scratching your head.”
As you saw, there were some excellent comments by Gary about HUI in tonight’s letter.
I’m in the camp that firmly believes that we have farther to go in this daily cycle low. I think it’ll be 1480 – 1475 sometime on Wednesday or Thursday (basically, the pivot that Gary has focused on).
If that happens (and I think it has a very high probability), the intraday bottom that HUI hit on April 18 should become the left shoulder of an inverse head and shoulders, which means the low on Wednesday or Thursday would be the (lower) head at about 560 – 555.
But Gary’s plan is an excellent one — setting a trade trigger for just above that pivot. I’m just going to do some watching for a low at the beginning and the end of the trading day on Wednesday, and the beginning of the day on Thursday.
I just wanted to throw in “my 2 cents worth”, so you don’t get too worried if HUI closes under that breakout triangle. I believe it’s a sure thing it will.
All the best.
Steven: I just don’t know re AGQ. I have dry powder as I sold 1/2 my AGQ at the opening today. Looks like we have blown out for at least a few days and do expect a sharp dip, but “tomorrow?” Often an item will fight its way back into a reversal candle, and that’s the best time to short it (I am NOT suggesting shorting AGQ!) e.g. something closes at 50 and the next day opens at 55, then closes at 45. The day after it rallies to 53 (late-comers thinking they are getting a bargain). You can short it there with a stop at 55+ for a low-risk, high-probability-to-work short. Seems to me that Gary’s daily cycle low and gold at 1480-90 is coming this week.
Rob, I think there could be more downside. Since investors will be nervous before the Fed meeting on wednesday, they will exit before. (What will happen right after is impossible to say, since that depends of the outcome of the meeting of course).
In addition, down to the gold pivot Gary’s mentioned has not been reached yet. & The miners are weaker than the metals, signalling bit further weakness.
After 28 April is seasonally statistically very strong for miners and gold. Check the seasonal charts. So post that date this should recover.
The previous link seems not to have worked, try again:
2006 2011
Transparent layover. Very similar topping actions then and now.
Note how the trendline breaks were afterwards tested in both, with long dojis, and the congestions below the trendline before the breaks (after which the runaways started) in both.
It won’t go all in right at a bottom, scaled in an some on a confirmed swing too. Action has to feel right.
Pointing you can easily control the leverage and preserve more capital, to play miners or other choice.
are you guys paying attention? looks like we have more downside to go. I want to see silver go to $42 level before it bottoms
looks like gold will hit 1480 by the time I wake up tomorrow morning. Need to have my buy order ready to go
i just can’t fig. out the miners and silver though
have a nice night all
This comment has been removed by the author.
Oooo….I’m liking this weakness in the after hours.
But, as last night/this morning showed, the overnight action can be a head fake.
Here’s hoping we get a big honking red candle tomorrow and $1480 gold.
anyone see the volume on ZSL today?
unreal
Thanks, Trond56. Appreciate your input.
Gary,
Any thoughts on the incredible more weakness in silver and gold in the aftermarket? How low do you think silver will go before we bottom and how long? Even guesses are appreciated!
yesterday same time everyone were talking about how high it can go, now its how low it can go.. funny…!!
You know my thoughts and where the trade trigger is from the daily reports. What more do you need?
Yes but where do you think SILVER will be at those trade triggers? Am I making sense?
How would I know?
Just let the trigger work.
Folks remember the trigger is an attempt to pick a bottom. It may work perfectly or it may be early. If you want to have better odds of little to no draw down then wait for a swing low.
Over the past hour Zero Hedge has been inundated with reader comments notifying us that Ampex has, validating the earlier post speculating about a possible silver shortage at the metals distributor, launched a “reverse ïnquiry” in which it will pay “you $3.00 over the current spot price of Silver for your Silver American Eagles. ANY year, ANY quantity!” and “We will pay you $38.00 over the current spot price of Gold for your Gold American Eagles. ANY year, ANY quantity!” So aside from this first public confirmation that one of the biggest wholesale retailers of precious metals is now inventoryless, we can certainly see why Asia has decided to take silver down in the afterhours electronic session.
Folks this has nothing to do with default risk and “needing” to bring the markets down. If that was the case “they” would have done it weeks ago.
This is just the normal market cycles doing what they do. About every 20-30 days we get a profit taking event.
That’s all this is.
I didn’t highlight that post as a sign of manipulation. I was just point out that Ampax is offering to purchase all silver eagles at $3.00 over spot. Up until now, most dealers would purchase eagles from you, but at a discount to spot. I was just highlighting the shortage of inventory….not the supposed china manipulation.
Actually American Eagles almost always care a premium over spot. The normal spread is about a dollar over spot to buy back.
$3 over spot does sound like someone is desperate to get some stock though.
Strange, as I don’t see any shortages at any of the dealers I track.
I inquired about selling back to Kitco in the past and they were offering a discount at the time. I just checked their website now and they are currently offering about $1.50-$2.00 over spot, so I stand corrected.
BTW, the CME raised silver maintanence margins by 9%, so this could explain some of the weakness afterhours.
Gary,
Are these aftermarket prices valid for our trade trigger purposes?
It looks like gold is down about 22 bucks or so. Close enough to load back up or do we wait for regular market hours?
Steven re; where will silver go:
Just so you know, Gary’s work is based on gold cycles. Silver will follow gold. instead of trying to pick a number for silver, look at the gold silver ratio. Presently it is 32.5…so take the gold price target and figure out possible ranges for the ratio and that will give you a range where silver will go. So for 1480 gold and ratio staying the same gives a silver price about 45.53..if the ratio goes higher to say 34 at the same gold price then look for 43.52
Now granted that is a two dollar difference, but it gives you an idea where the price might head. Last night I think we got below 31 on the ratio. The point I am getting at is that it is difficult to say if gold is X price then silver will be Y price. it will vary on which direction gold is moving and which direction the G/S ratio is moving. last august I think the ratio was in the 60’s. I think before the C wave is over we will be below 30..28?, 26? 20? one can’t know for sure and what price that will be who knows. But my thinking was 1650 gold at G/S ratio of 30 is 55.00 dollar Silver. I don’t know if this helps you or confuses you even more. just something to think about.
Steven, Kitco shows gold down $9.70
I’m showing gold down $9.50 at $1497.
We still have a ways to go to get to our trigger.
Apmex is selling silver eagles from 5-6.5 over spot so they are still making out
Sorry, meant off of the 1518 high…
But I take it your intention is for us to wait for 1480 then.
Thank you Natanarchist. That was very helpful. Where do you plan to buy back into silver (if at all)?
Thank you Natanarchist. That was very helpful. Where do you plan to buy back into silver (if at all)?
Last I checked with my dealer, buy premium was $4.50 over spot, and they would buy back at $3.00 over spot for ASE’s. This was a month ago.
i bought some silver back right here not because i think its the bottom but i dont want to get cought with my pants down having sold all of it last night. I am happy with being able to save about $3.5 of the price with the trade last night. No need to get too greedy!
David said…
Interestingly, when I tried to buy DGP I was notified that it was “not authorized for online trading”. The grand conspiracy at work, perhaps?
I can’t remember if it was in my Fidelity or TD acct., but the first time I went to buy DGP I got a similar message. All I had to do was go into my acct settings and change my profile from “growth investor” to “speculator”. It is crazy how the brokerages try to protect us from ourselves.
So AGQ isn’t for speculators…?
😉
FWIW. Richard Russell on gold.
Happened to me with AGQ also in an acct I manage for a family member. The one that really gets me is when they deny letting me buy calls or puts for that acct. They don’t want me to blow out the acct. How kind of them to protect me like that. 🙂
Crikey! Silver down more than 12 percent in 24 hours! Below 45 and falling fast. Gold below 1500.
We should get a gap down in AGQ and SLV in the morning.
Maybe that will generate some selling.
Ah yes….silver really diving now.
At times like this I wish I traded futures.
I wonder if retail will wake up, panic, and push it down more?
I have a small Fidelity account, but do most of my trading in a TOS account. I was concerned about a takedown this morning before the open, so I checked on extended hours in both accounts. TOS allows extended hours trading starting at 8am eastern, but Fidelity you can trade beginning at 7 eastern.
I had an SLV position, both shares and calls that I intended to sell. When SLV started dropping before 8 eastern this morning, I logged into my Fidelity account thinking I’d hedge my SLV position with ZSL on the Fidelity. When I tried to place an order, first I had to change to Speculator (for the ZSL), and then I get a message saying that in order for me to do extended trading I need to speak to a representative to get “authorized” for extended hours. So I call the number, tell them what I want to do, they pass me off to a “trade expert” and I hang there on hold, watching the price of SLV tick down. I finally gave up and hung up the phone at about 5 till 8 eastern because once the clock struck 8, I wouldn’t need the hedge anymore.
That’s one thing I do like about TOS. They pretty much let you do whatever you want, they figure you’re an adult, you can make your own trading decisions!
Bloggers have dropped off right on cue. Wonder how far the hits have dropped off.
boom! – sell me your silver and gold.
1490 gold and 41 silver please on a platinum platter. thanks lol
continue this shake down. i’ll be set for the next run.
David with the flea, You have me baffled. If you bought and have been holding from the 09 low (my hero), and are worried about a crash eating your profits, why were you buying today?
Sign me Perplexed
Any guesses where silver might be before this night is over?
I’m guessing $42. Maybe as low as $41.
From $50 to <$45 within 24 hours. This 10% drops reminds me of the 17% crash described in last week’s report.
Understand why Gary wants to switch to Gold after Silver hits $50. Hope the top hasn’t arrived.
Brian,
I’m pretty sure that isn’t a flea. It looks like a beetle.
Anybody’s guess, pima. The lower the better. I really doubt today marked the peak of the C wave.
Of more immediate concern to me is gold, as that’s what my trade trigger hinges on. : )
i am glad we are seeing a large correction. Things were getting out of control with silver going straight up from 40 to 50.
pima: I don’t think it’ll maintain this rate of descent. It’ll probably get some bounce in Asia.
These declines into the daily cycle low are usually 3-5 day affairs, and I’d guess that this one’ll go through the end of the Fed meeting and maybe into Thursday morning.
The fact that gold is holding amazingly steady is further support for the fact that we haven’t seen the C-wave’s peak.
I stopped guessing the turning points because I will always be wrong.
Even worst, having an early target makes me wants to stick with it and distract my focus on listening to the market movements.
Watching the swings seem to be a better way to identify a high probabiliy turning point.
We will not know the turning point until we passed it.
Basic Elliott Wave says the decline will be in 3 waves. Counting on GLD 30-minute chart, you’ll probably see one wave down (starting Monday and probably ending Tuesday), a bounce up, and then the final wave down, ending probably Wednesday or Thursday.
I can count 3 waves in the last 24 hours.
Elliott Wave is an extremely subjective technical tool. I followed it for 2 years and gave up.
To each his own, I guess. On the GLD 30 minute chart, I count the start of wave 1 down.
steven;
I will add to my positions based on what gold does. If we get close to the target area, say within 5 dollars or so I will add silver at that time. That assume it falls closely to the parameters laid out in the Plan. I am not too worried about catching the exact bottom. I don’t freak out over draw downs, plus I have really strong status with my current positions so that helps. my guesstimate and it is only a guess, is that the ratio won’t go higher than 35, so probably 42.50-43 might be lowest we go on Silver, for this daily cycle bottom.
I see we have a nice sell off happening now and I like this price area, but it is overnight. I will wait until at least the AM EST to see what happens in Europe and Crimex in NY. If there is more downside it will happen when these markets are open.
Raz..you made out well selling at the high last night and getting those positions back 4 + dollars lower..good one.
damn…looking like horror show tomorrow in silver – silver could be down 5-10%
Gary,
Fifty percent of my portfolio is in AGQ. I was waiting for AGQ to reach $50 before I was to sell my entire AGQ holding. I don’t want to risk a big one day drop similar to April 2006. I am getting worried because you did not mention AGQ in your report tonight and silver is dropping fast afterhours. Is the plan to continue holding AGQ until silver reaches $50? Thanks.
D wave warm up.
Leilani, Gary did not mention silver because he is confident that in a week silver will be higher than today. $45 should be a support area people will defend tonight.
Jennifer, When I looked at it again tonight, I thought it might be a bee instead of a flea! It is a bug for sure though!
Well, this is fun.
Got out of all silver related positons this morning in premarket at 48.37. Still have my GDXJ and GDX.
In the morning I will initiate 1/4 of my DGP allotment. I’ll initiate another 1/4 on a daily swing low. And another 1/2 on a breakout in gold.
I’ll also likely reload a bit of AGQ (maybe a 5-8% position just because I’m in love). Boy, it feels good to get one right.
Why did I sell today? I study Jesse Livermore. Over and over I read his writings, and the writing of others about him. Today felt like a spike that would be a Jesse Livermore sell day.
Anyway, I now think silver will see 60/oz in the next month or so. But, Gary’s wisdom rings true for me, I don’t want to risk getting caught in its imminent downdraft. I really think today was a beautiful and lesser model of what the C-Wave top will look like, except miners and gold will be participating in a much more significant way.
f
Yes yes I know- some folks think that KWG is biased and too much cheerleadering but their interviewees and sources have a good record IMO.
Very bullish for silver
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/4/25_London_Source_-_Asian_Buyers_Will_Take_Silver_Over_$100.html
Fusby, I believe Jesse would be telling you it is a bull market after all. There will be corrections.
Hence Gary not selling just yet.
you guys holding stocks and ETFs are lucky the prices were still high when New York opened. I thought it would open closer to 37 and then drop from there.
JH-
Thanks for the HUI pep talk. I know that the HUI can looked like a really screwed up chart and still explode higher. I just don’t want a repeat of being stuck in dragging miners again while the underlying metal rockets to the MOON! I plan on a better balance this time around.
/SI
You guys watching it backtest the channel it broke out of? (Also right on the 10 EMA now)
The FIBs on the daily cycle are also interesting. The 43.60ish level looks good or a 50% support where the 20 EMA is rising towards.
http://www.screencast.com/users/Jayhawk1991/folders/Jing/media/198b6e5f-c3a4-4afa-9e40-dcc93cec51fa
Bob Loves Hawaii,
Thanks for commenting on my post. Anyway, the dollar has not reach the three year cycle low yet so silver should continue to go higher.
Jayhawk: I hear ya there.
Leilani: silver will DEFINITELY be going higher than its high from last night. Don’t worry about that. Last night was not the C-wave top for silver.
Brian,
I bought and stayed 100% long from the bottom in fall ’08 until last week, when I lightened up considerably on my AGQ holdings.
I redeployed some of that money today into gold via UGL and gold miners. I still own all my silver miners.
If we have a particularly nasty day tomorrow, I may buy back some of that AGQ in addition to UGL.
Though I have always remained 100% long, I have often ditched stocks that were underperforming, like JAG. The only stocks I have held continuously since 08 are SLW and EXK.
And it is a beetle — a gold bug — though I like the sound of “David with the flea” just as well.
I have mentioned this a couple times, but it plays into Gary’s thesis and needs emphasis.
The stock market will top prior to commodities. As Gary has tried to drill home the stock market has likely topped. Given normal proceedings, we will see the mkt in a topping pattern like the one we see now.
As that unfolds, the PM’s will finish the C wave, and the crumble of all assets will begin in earnest.
Then you can begin to contemplate QE whatever.
To clarify: I was buying gold today as part of a switch out of silver.
Gary has announced that he plans to do the same — I’m just doing it early because the weakness in silver miners seemed to presage a big tumble in silver.
David, You like flea, we stay with flea! The heck with those gold bugs!
Bob Loves Hawaii,
You were right on the money about defending $45 …
Silver hit about $44.75 and bounced back up.
Could this just be a 2-3 day correction before silver goes back up again?
Do any of you consider the TAX consequences of a silver or gold trust (“collection” rate?) or ETF, versus a miner “fund,” when trading? Or is it immaterial? Just wondering…thanks.
Good morning everyone..
Poly,
“Pick them up for $6.50 on the next $20 gold dip (Say $1,490 Gold) and dump them for $22.50 at Gold $1,650, C-Wave top”
Could you share the math on your projected buy and sell prices? I’ve done the conversion from gold prices to GLD prices for the strike but can’t get a handle on the 6.50 or 22.50 projections.
Thanks and have a great day!
Newbie sub very happy to see the next stage of the plan is with less volatile gold. My platform here in the UK won’t do ETNs so DGP is unavailable to me. At the same time I am unwilling to forego the leverage with GLD. Is UGL really too illiquid? Thanks.
Supermalc
Bought into 1/4 position of DGP this morning at 47.17. Next qurter on daily swing low. THen another 1/2 on breakout.
f
Slumdog, thx very much for your interesting commentaries to the comparison charts.
The most important trait, both in this move and 1980’s, is the strong and very similar midway consolidations in both. That makes the total curve much more dynamic, perhaps acting as a kind of slingshot coil. For instance the 2006 parabola didn’t have such a major correction along the way.
Wmp,
Not hard numbers, back of the envelope math, to show approx returns.
For example $1,490 gold should be around $146 I believe which on a $140 call will sell for about $6.50. Gold at $1,650 is around $162 so the call will sell for little premium above $22.
Anyone,
If I choose to buy GLD options at the swing, will June be an adequate expiration to cover the move?
Russ
Russ,
You will need at least July.
Jabalong, the site you mentioned about Terry Laundry is the right one. He is a grand old man in TA. Marty Scwartz, who won all the trading competitions back in the 80s and 90s had high respect for him.
The T-theory time symmetri; Markets use the same time going up as it used going down. Thus both sides of the T are about equal. The left (down) side is the cash-buildup phase. He is good at timing the sp500 and he is free.
Gary, can you suggest a strike price for the July GLD options? There is no mention of this in your subscription service and the time frame is nearing when they must be bought. Also, I’d appreciate a strike price for SLV options and expiry date so that I could buy them when the cycle low comes in.
Shai Agassi, the founder of Better Place, the most sophisticated electric-car enterprise in the world, projects the ebullient confidence of a man facing a giant wave of money. “Within less than this decade the No. 1–selling car in the world will be the electric car,” he says. “It’s the biggest financial opportunity the world has ever seen. We’re seeing a $10 trillion shift in an industry in less than a decade. It’s the Internet, and add another zero.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20110426/wl_time/08599206697500
Are you ready for the revolution? Dow 36,000 baby!
Personally, I would be less worry about the tax consequences. In stock trading, most important is the superior returns and timing of entry and exit. Once you make consistent favorable returns, you end up better even on an after tax basis.
How can I suggest a strike price when we don’t even have any idea where the bottom of the cycle is going to be?
Heck if the dollar continues to weaken gold and silver will probably take off again and we’ll have to wait another week or more before the cycle low.
David with a Gold Bug,
You mentioned you stayed long since 2008 on gold/silver. Would you share how you timed that bottom and what kept you long over the 18 months without worrying about hitting the tops?
There maybe something we can learn from you.
Thanks!
Goodmorning Gary
Looking at parabolic charts, isnt it possible that as they climb steeper and steeper (forming an arc toward the top)their ‘higher lows’ become less of a pullback and therefore never even touch the lower trendline?
I ask because you (or Doc, but you agree)feel that for a cycle low, we look for a trendline break. I am wondering if in a parabolic rise…this may be one thing that fails at the end?
On Gold,the trendline from the march15 low to April 1 low,would lead to $1460,unless you change your trendline to include April 12’s higher low & draw right through April 1’s low.
So would a steeper climb effect cycle lows this way?
There are always some relatively new people stopping by here who have no idea what a ‘C Wave Top’ is, nor what to expect after that. Is this THEE top… or the top before a consolidation period lasting… how long? Thanks.
jhnewman,
A wave 1 is similar to a complicated A, triangle B, and then a regular C.
Can you really tell whether it is an uptrend or a downtrend given a standard 5-wave can also be altered to fit a 3-wave pattern, vice versa?
Alex, thx for posting the McEwen interview.
Uxg is my largest position, aquired at 1$ and ever since then I’ve been following him closely, and hopeful for his management style. Since your pics and stocks-analysis have a very good track record here it is reassuring to know that one is in your portifolio too..
Beanie,
Yes we will see electric cars phased in gradually over time, but it will be a long long process. They are still very expensive, don’t go very far on a charge, and electricity will never replace diesel fueling in the trucking industry.
Plus the whole infrastructure will have to be upgraded to support electric. That is a multi decade process.
It is a process that will have to occur before the next secular bull market can begin.
And no secular bull market can begin on a foundation of spiraling debt. One way or the other either through default and a deflationary depression or destruction of the currency and a hyperinflationary depression we will have to cleanse the system of this debt alligator.
Until that process is complete there can be no secular bull market in stocks. There will only be a secular bull market in gold as long as countries continue to debase currencies in the vain attempt to service debt by money printing.
History is crystal clear on this one. Never in the history of the world has money printing worked. Sometimes it works in the short term. Like the last two years and during the 03-07 period.
But as we saw money printing only makes the problem bigger so when the cancer breaks out it’s much worse than the time before.
We got a front row seat to that during the last leg of the secular bear as we watched the credit markets implode. Now we are getting a front row seat to the end result of Bernanke’s printing strategy. It’s causing commodity inflation. This will eventually collapse an already weakened economy and the next recession will begin.
Electric car won’t be the new thing. We would need something that uses less energy or no energy, or something with an ample supply of renewable energy to solve our energy problems. A shift back to the “horse and buggy” would work too, but that would be the result of energy extremes not by choice.
I heard some good things about algae, but still in infancy. If we get back off of oil and run to electric power we are actually making matters worse, since energy is a diminishing product. In order to produce electricity, we need x units of say coal. If that coal were used to power cars directly it would give more energy. We have limited supply of hydro, wind, and solar, so our next step is nuclear…and nuclear never is safe….never; it just showcases how desperate society is for energy when it needs to extract energy from one of the most dangerous processes on this planet.
I truly don’t believe the world markets will ever make “real” returns again, until the energy problem is solved. Constant up and downs as new bubbles are formed, but nothing in terms of true growth.
Gary, thank you for you comment regarding options :o)
Maybe when the low has been identified you might post recommended option expiry dates and strike prices for GLD and SLV on your subscription site. Thank you again :o)
Eamonn,
You should NEVER buy options. You should only SELL options. And never sell naked options. Only sell options on stock you own.
These are the wisest words concerning options (aside from stay away from them) you will ever hear on any web site.
Are you folks kiddin me? Better Place already selling fully electric cars for $25,000. They have the infrastructure technology that can be deployed across the nation rather quickly and it’s just a matter of whether we want to invest in it.
We can save so much money when we don’t use gasoline. And that can easily pay the national debt. We save on no longer needing oil imports and we save on government subsidies (for which the oil industry gets $2 trillion per year). America can pay its debt easily, leaving a huge surplus.
In my opinion, it’s a race against time. Electric car mega boom (Dow 36,000)….or US Dollar collapse (Gold 36,000).
Danno,
Never say never.
I agree with you that it’s the sellers of options who make the money over the long term. That said, however, you CAN buy deep in the money options for leverage and do well with them in a bull market. And if you have a way to be reasonably confidant that a low is in place (SMT premium!), you can make money buying other options (at or even out of the money) as well. Poly has used this strategy several times and is getting mind boggling returns.
Actually selling options isn’t a fool proof strategy either. For the most part you will make a small amount of consistent money and then out of the blue a big move will cost you all of those profits.
Selling options is kind of like shorting in that your risk is unlimited.
The correct way to use options is to substitute DITM options for shares.
You control risk in the event you are wrong on direction and you will garner a much better return on invested capital if you are correct on direction.
Trond56
Your posts have helped me in the past too,so thx and you’re welcome.
I followed Ron McEwen (I think) in 2005 because of his mngmnt of GG , and also took over as chairman and CEO of MNEAF when he left Goldcorp. (I was in MNEAF 2006-2007,and trade it now) With him running UXG, I would expect good things too.
Danno,
That statement is far from the truth. Buying slv July 37’s and 38’s back in mid-feb. was the best investment I ever made. You are never going to get 600 – 1000% returns selling options. Only wish I had bought more, but I am already salivating for the end of the next “B” wave.
Okay, if you guys are only talking about DEEP in the money options I would maybe agree with that. But I’d say that 90% of small investors who buy options do not buy deep in the money options. And 98%+ of people reading this will not buy DITHM options. They will gamble. And they will lose badly over time. I don’t think it’s even wise to mention options. They can ruin a person’s entire life.
No argument there. Most people use options for leverage and those people will eventually destroy their account. There are never any exceptions to that rule.
Jesse,
Good for you but you are gambling. And one day your luck will run out. You need to be honest with yourself that you are gambling. Gambling is like crack. Once you get hooked your are in big trouble.
F.W.I.W.
I was looking at SLW last night,it is showing signs of trouble…its a sick looking chart.
I would not buy it until it shows real improvement.
Danno,
As long as one enters the position realizing they might lose it all it is easy to control the risk. I never used more than 10% of my portfolio, probably less than 5% until I had strong hand status. That small amount sure juiced my returns though. It is true options can be very difficult to win with, but in a “C” wave they are magic!
Yeee hawwww ride em cowboy
the electric cars are the wave of the future but they have a long way to go. It could really help us get off foreign oil.
The problem with them is the battery which cost 8000 or more and it is based on the same technology as the laptop batteries. And we all know how long those last!!!
I saw some promising research of a lithium battery that was developed using nanotechnology which allowed a 10 fold increase in the amount of energy store. It is probably going to take at least 10 years to manufacture something like this on a large scale.
Nice decline. Sitting tight, but getting itchy to buy! 🙂
Is this a gap down? Stockcharts is not showing it as a gap down because it was above yesterday’s low.
Shalom,
Eh…I was hoping for more carnage this a.m. given the steep drop at bedtime last night.
Please do post when you make a move…we are privileged to have a man of your “connections” on the blog. ; )
SB, I know you are smiling! Here comes HUI 565 that you wanted.
SLW= sucks!
A second push down (test) in the HUI to 565-567 might offer up a nice opportunity.
ouch.. quite a freaking plunge from 49.80…is the floor falling out or is this just a pullback…
I’m not going to talk about options anymore. It’s probably not healthy (for people evesdropping) to even mention options. You do not need to even use options to make your first million in the market. So why even bother. It makes no common sense. The risk is too high. Not only the risk of bad timing but the constant risk of going overboard and using too much money. If a person can’t trade his way to a million dollars using straight stock, then he probably cannot trade his way to a million dollars by any means (especially not with options). Anway, good luck all.
Patience is a virtue, nice to see Silver down $4 from high’s. All cash and itching to get wet.
Looking forward to reloading sometime this week and forgetting about the previous week’s mistake.
traderlady,
Yes, I’d like to see that level tested again 565-567 on the HUI, and I might even give miners another shot. 🙂