An alternate strategy has been posted to the website.
Matthew – What exactly did you mean by “Gary has already crossed that line”
He can write what he wants as long as he doesn’t give peronalized, individual advice.
OMG sell it now….ride the whole drop
Always ready to step up for your subs. Even the whiny ones.
Thanks Gary. Appreciate EVERYTHING you do.
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Yes! I love these alternate strategies by Gary. They come at bottoms when there is panic on the blogs and Gary feels as if he needs to give something to alleviate it. The bottom must be very close.
Gary, are you going to follow the alternate strategy?
I really think we’re so close to a swing low that this will probably not be worth it…of course you never know.
AGQ is at 199
Not too bad…
I was expecting much worse based on Gary’s new post.
For all of those who are looking for Miner strength as some sort of leading indicator for a Metals bottom, I would be cautious. It was clear to me during Silvers run up that the popular trade amongst the large trading desks was to go long the Physical and go Short the Miners as a hedge (It worked beautifully in hindsight). Now that is appears those trades are being unwound you are seeing support for the Miners through short covering.
anyone see the volume on ZSL .. 48M shares so far .. already 7x normal volume.
Gary – was the turn in the dollar within a day plus or minus of the employment numbers due tomorrow the upturn we saw today?
yes sir may I have another
I bought in yesterday at 235
(thinking great bargain)
Never do that again, wait til the swing low or gradually scale in…
The 10 EMA rejected again, amazing.
This is priceless experience. We are experiencing the backside of a parabola in real time with skin in the game. If you’re losing, make it count, take lessons out of this that cover the cost of entry.
By the way, this will definitely bounce, and hard. The question remains, will it make a new high or roll over?
You seem to be enjoying this too much. Can you elaborate? Seems like you were an older sub…Maybe you missed the ride and are now rubbing it in?
Hard to believe, but EXK under $9 and SVM under $11 now.
It feels like more downside in the near future, but I hope these stay around here for another day or two.
I’m one of the youngest and least experienced traders on here, but I (think) I have common sense.
Let me just throw this out there, and then I need to step out.
Don’t lose faith in Gary. He is right FAR more often then he is wrong. I think he WILL make us a lot more money in the months and years to come if we stick with him.
Ah, but what do you need to stick with him? (well, other than the annual membership). You need CAPITAL.
Your capital is your “chips” in this game. If you lose so much that the demands of living life in the Ben Bernank’s banana republic prevents you from trading with Gary, you are OUT OF THE GAME.
You can always make money if you preserve enough chips to trade, and Gary will more often than not make us money.
For me, I trimmed today because of my personal life constraints….I would still be up big, PLUS I could rest easy knowing I had enough cash to pay loans later this year. Simple. Not dictated by panic, but by my PERSONAL situation.
Again, think of your PERSONAL situation. Think of how many “chips” you will need to keep playing along with Gary.
Hope that helps some people as you decide what to do in the coming days.
Now, I need to run an errand.
Gary – I presume your are not selling anything at this time. You just mentioned your options.
I feel bad for the guys like KAL who got in AGQ & GLD options towards the top. Hope they are ok.
Good Afternoon all.
A1I sold my AGQ position.
This is a tough one. I feel we are very close to atleast a major bounce in silver after the carnage of last week!
What is everybody doing. Gettng out or waiting for bounce.
Had to do it, bought SVM under $11
I was one of the new members who bought at the top.. well technically I bought silver when it was 42 dollars and held on till this massive drop. Just sold all my agq positions which accounted for 50% of my portfolio and now waiting for that swing low to confirm that this correction is over. I wish Gary would’ve mentioned this earlier but thanks for the advice anyway.
Was that the SMTers selling after Gary posted?
damnit, out at the low. really bad feeling. just wanna die
Jayhawk – I’m also thinking of Kal (and his beautiful family).
My hope is he wasn’t too extended and is riding this out elsewhere–somewhere fun–or at least not staring at the screen.
UGH, decisions. . .decisions. . .Seems like selling at the lows now to convert to gold.
Its a “good” afternoon only if you like getting kicked when you are down….or…if you sold at 48 and have stayed out since then.
I hope we have a double bottom that holds. I am now reduced to the “hope” trade. Lol
Hey, if Shalom’s buying, we must be close as my experience of him has been that he has nerves of steel in patiently waiting for buying opps.
Puked. Sold all AGQ. I was no more heavily leveraged than Gary but as leverage decreased with rising price, I bought more to keep leverage at 140%. That helped kill the trade. Decent sized loss. Still own SIL and SLW.
The way I read the post was that its purpose was to show what was accomplished by following Gary’s calls.
You, however, just assumed the post was all about bragging. Or maybe your blog lie detector gives you a reading on intent as well?
Very handy tool, that thing is. Although it doesn’t have a whole lot of practical value really, unless you just enjoy taking potshots at other people’s posts here and elsewhere.
This is my lesson.
Silver:buy @ 29buy @ 33sell all @ 47.5 ( what a great trade)buy again @ 48.5sell @ 44.5 ( great drop in pre-market)buy @ 41.5 ( thinking 30SMA will hold)sell @ 35.7 (today)
Looking at your history…seems like you should always wait for a swing-low before you rebuy. I just learned a hard lesson today too after selling half of my positions (AGQ)
I can’t believe we are selling AGQ here.
I followed your lead, picked up a small position in SVM. It’s the only silver miner I now own. Have small positions in GDXJ, AXU, and NG as well, but those are primarily gold miners (except GDXJ does have some silver miners in their mix, I believe).
Selling has dried up under 36…
He could have easily made the point without disclosing that he had made $8 million is the point.
It’s not so considerate either reading here that a lot of people are losing huge amounts of their accounts. It only solidifies in their mind that they failed since they too didn’t make millions.
By the way – why are you the defender of the multi-millionaire? Only one taking potshots here would be you at this point.
This is brutal. /GC intermediate channel is still in play though…1460’s down there. 50 DMA on gold 1455.
Sorry about some of the people here who got caught in that silver plunge with AGQ. Terrible. Ugh. I’m sick.
I know what many think of intrady patterns and it may be a bit of wishful thinking….but DX on an hourly sure looks like a rounded top forming. Look at the declining volume. There, I feel better now 🙂
I must say its a little disconcerting that this is the capitulation event that we have been waiting for and because the pain has gotten so extensive we are now going to take massive losses, dump AGQ and hope to jump back in on a swing low in gold. Hard to ride this wave all the way down (figuring it was a healthy correction) only to sell at the bottom…Sucks
BTW, in my trade, sell @ 47-79 will result buy @ 41 as a follower of Gary. still ride the drop from 41 to 35 as Gary said this only is a correction( I am not blame to Gary, just my personal decision based on SMT, and I will do it). For me, I will hold tight as Gary didn’t make any move and result in selling @35 today.
What should I improve my plan and learn the lesson? Riding this drop is the most bad feeling in my life.
I know that I’ll definitely sell one lot of silver futures if/when we cross 34.90 (which when I put the trade on at 48 seemed very unlikely that we’d ever reach).
As for the rest, it’s also starting to hurt badly since gold too is in free fall now. I’ll most likely sell more of my leveraged positions tomorrow when European markets are open again. I don’t want to leave myself without any capital if this turns out really bad.
This has turned out like getting on a Six Flags ride, prepared for your standard rollercoaster thrills and instead getting a f#€&ing moonshoot.
no sellin here 4 me. to everyone that did I understand.
For the record, Rick Ackerman (hidden pivot trader… very successful over the last few years) has gone crazy bullish bullion along with Peter Grandich. Grandich happened to call the decline within minutes of the top, and he’s all in, noting that what he’s seen over the last few days has triggered a buy indicator that he’s only seen a few times in his entire trading career.
Interview is as follows http://www.contraryinvestorscafe.com/peter-grandich/
I would not be selling AGQ right now and will not.
I think this is all an illusion. I will keep my AGQ.
As I read through the T1 document again (at Cory’s suggestion), and then looked at the silver charts, I was struck by 2 things:
1) the consolidation zone to which we need to correct is 31 ish. 2) the two T1 retrace examples in Gary’s Terminology document occurred during the initial stages of a D-Waves.
You can always buy AGQ back…the current silver selling shows no real sign of abating…although I’m hoping.
Seems that one way to play this to reduce the bleeding is to dump the double long etf’s like AGQ, DGP, and UGL, and give yourself similar (or less) exposure by using in the money call options on GLD. But not too deep in the money, delta of .7 to .8, for example. If GLD goes back to its recent highs, you’ll do almost as well as you would with the double long etf’s, but if it continues to drop, the options will not lose value as quickly as the etf’s. If you do this, be sure to give yourself enough time on the calls. After dumping part of my UGL position, I picked up the equivalent exposure in GLD July 134 calls. I also dumped most of my SLV position, but I am not planning to buy any SLV calls. I think Silver is toast for a while, although it might do a 50 percent retrace of the drop (taking it back to 43 or so) if/when we get a bounce.
‘course if we just keep dropping, buying the calls will just be another way to lose money, just not as fast, that’s all.
Gary’s discussion Friday and the weekend report convinced me to buy 5% allocation to silver puts to hedge my gold position for the eventual parabola collapse of silver. After seeing the gap down on Monday I froze and decided not to. I had no idea it would commence this week.
That would have been an epic trade in hindsight! Oh well, live and learn.
farm girl.. you haven’t been at this game for very long…Gary is giving investing advice…and has crossed the SEC line..Right from the SEC Website
Who Is an Investment Adviser?Subject to certain limited exclusions discussed below, Section 202(a)(11) of the Advisers Act generally defines an “investment adviser” as any person or firm that: (1) for compensation; (2) is engaged in the business of; (3) providing advice, making recommendations, issuing reports, or furnishing analyses on securities, either directly or through publications. A person or firm must satisfy all three elements to be regulated under the Advisers Act.
Thanks for the Grandich interview, TraderRob — nice to listen to something “comforting.”
You have got to be kidding me. I am a fairly new subscriber and I went with Gary instead of my gut. My lesson learned through this is never, ever trade without some kind of tailing stop.
Trading thoughts: What is absolutely paramount is not to lose much of your stake. Please, memorize that thought, and NEVER forget it. There is no recovery from zero capital. I do not generally speak in absolutes, as you all know, but this is one (perhaps thee only one). For myself I never let a position that was well in the black go into the red (remember my break-even stop idea?)
If you get out it clears your head. You can always get back in. 90% of the resistance people have to getting out is to avoid the horrible feeling of having the sold item take off as soon as it is sold. GET OVER THAT FEELING—IT WILL COST YOU MORE THAN YOU CAN IMAGINE OVER THE YEARS. It is pure ego that can’t accept having blown it. Very expensive.
It’s funny, I had just starting selling my AGQ before Gary posted. I am ahead for the year now, my mind is clearer, and I can start fresh. I should make lots of money the rest of this year. Why open myself up to damage here? I lost my entire bankroll years ago and made it all back and more. I ain’t doin’ that again. Let’s learn and go forward. Hang in there guys!
Poly and Fubsy: I have really been enjoying your level-headed posts. It’s great to have you both here. Thanks!
Oil break below 100 !!!!
This is the biggest weekly loss of SLV in five years. also, I have a fib chart that traced out the 08 lows with the Dec 31 high. $30.99 is the number.
SLW filled the last gap today.
Could be a potential reversal end-of-day?
Matthew – there is an exception for newsletter that are perioducals of general circulation. SEC vs. Lowe
The only newsletter editors that are registered are those who are borkers or money managers.
First off I can’t believe people can’t own up to their own trades and feel the need to blame someone. I sold out today in the morning and believe me it was a massive hit but no one forced me to buy in the first place.
Another thing, if you do believe there’s still a c-wave to come, I don’t see a problem with selling here and buying back on a confirmed swing? I’ve learned my lesson from 2X leveraged ETF’s before and you DO NOT want to keep holding if it keeps on dropping. The decay will kill you. I’m not here to scare you or recommending you to sell.
Alternate strategy:If this gaps up big tomorrow or Monday, I’d lose my position, and then where would I be?
Lot of traders just mentally and emotionally defeated…
sounds like a bottom to me james
Interesting…That’s right where the 200 DMA is, as well as the channel low off the summer rally. And where the 78.6% FIB level is for this current intermediate cycle.
So, what happened in other D waves from your research once it hit that point?
I am calling YOU out for presuming to know that another person’s post was either a lie or bragging. How can you possibly know what a person’s intent was in making a post?
And why does it bother you so much if someone took 2 million and turned it into 10 million? I find that inspiring and hopeful. Apparently you do not. But that’s no reason to assume the worst about why they made the post.
Matthew, gold and silver are commodities, and are regulated not by the SEC, but the FTC.
No offense, but you sound like a baby. I’ve been getting the same advice from Gary as you have, so how do you explain my results?
The SEC might just laugh at you. 🙂
James r said:
“Lot of traders just mentally and emotionally defeated…”
Perhaps that should tell us something.
Having said that, DGs comment above about preserving capital is RULE #1.
could someone please regulate Matthew?
Putting my prediction on the line: Dollar rally to 74.5 in response to tomorrow’s “news”, followed by continuation of the waterfall decline. Then, it’s off to the races again. Yeah, I’ve seen my account balance blowtorched this week like many here, but I have a feeling it will be short lived. I didn’t sell into the ’08 decline either, however, and (outside of some option position expiring OTM), came out quite well. I especially liked doubling down on my SLW around $4. Ah, those were the days.
Vonda, your dog will still love you no matter what happens in silver :o)
Excuse me, the CFTC.
Dow:Gold ratio now 8.6:1
No way I’m even considering selling any of my pm holdings until that ratio gets below 2:1
Great post DG
Once we didn’t die yet, OPs are spread around the world. So, do not worth to take that risk in case gold really in D-wave.
GaryYou post this as an alternate strategy, has your overall view changed?
When people are getting mean, it means it’s time to remove the hedges and go long.
I hope so. I ready to puch the trigger if this baby reverses.
I did sell some AGQ to lighten the load margin.
Matthew,Gary hasn’t crossed any SEC line. He is taking compensation for providing a newsletter. He is not acting as a registered advisor or taking compensation for providing investment advice.
Don’t be so enamored with trying to catch this falling knife and calling bottoms. What you are witnessing is a crash in the silver market.
The scary thing is that the market can drop to the low to mid $20’s and still be in a long term up trend. After crashes like this, you might see a quick bounce, but rarely will it go to new highs. It will probably trade in a range after this carnage, giving you ample time to get back on for another ride up if that will happen. After big drops, everyone mentally is so worried about missing out on the retrace that they think will happen just as quickly.
Things fundamentally changed with the massive CME maring hikes. A lot of speculators who helped ramp the market are getting blown out, and may not have the juice to rip it right back from where it came.
piling on: i’m out of PSLV a dollar less than i paid for it yesterday. don’t like how the 1PM candle closed on /SI. pointing to $32-33 according to my jazz.
this thing will probably bounce here but i do think we’ll get lower prices before Thee bottom. all i know is that this morning i was feeling more “hopeful” than satisfied with this trade and that was enough for me to pull the plug.
Pima 1Dead Horse 0
time to move on dude
Good plan about trimming. (I believe you directed a post to Jennifer that suggested she trim.)
I did a little of that today. My only regret is that I didn’t start earlier, as in yesterday or the day before. One thing that prevented me was fear of selling at the bottom. But guess what, you don’t have to sell everything! Sell it piecemeal, stop the arterial bleeding, slow it down to a trickle. You can always put back on the positions you sold and maybe even at a better price.
Just sold everything I had (AGQ,DGP and some DITM SLV Calls). Will wait for the swing low to jump back in but man what a beating. Have to preserve the capital so that you still have chips to ante into another game…
Beanie has now a chance to increase his reputation when this massacre is over.
I am not a savvy trader … no Ta, no cycles no charts … just my gut and Gary.
I scaled in early (all silver) and scaled out on the way up converted HZU to HBU near the top and continued scaling out of silver on the way down.Sitting with 100% cash and my PM trade still up almost 100% … could have been 150% but I can live with that.
Thank you Gary
I have be around long enough to know that parabolic rises never end happily.My timing ALWAYS sucks but that just means I never make as much as I could and I never lose as much as I should and I am very pleased with that.I will wait for a swing and do it again hopefully …Gary I think your timing is amazing and no one could have predicted this drop in silver … Thanks and looking forward to the next run
I don’t know about you guys, but my biggest lesson learned, and one that I think I’ll respect for the rest of my life is nothing but a simple trend following truth: have rules for entry and exit – and then follow them.
This is the second time I go deep in the red, the last was the summer slump of 2010. Both times a daily correction turned into something much more serious than expected.
So even if it means missing a few points here and there I’ll be inclined to get out on every daily swing high and not enter until there is a daily swing low.
Sell now? You have got to be kidding me!
Well, if Old Turkey Savage has capitulated, then we most be near a bottom.
Dollar nearing 2009 lows, should be at least a pause if not a rejection.
PST, your wrong
Shouldn’t miners be down a lot more? If we were really tanking?
Dammit Jayhawk- you’re always asking the right questions! 😉
Let me take a look.
Looking at GLD & SLV level 2 quotes, there are slightly more buyers than sellers. Not so for miners..
I ordered a couple of these, which saves me on replacing keyboards:
Eamonn, I might have to send my dogs out to hunt for all of us!
Just kidding. I’m weathering this one fairly well. But, as others have said, I feel just sick for anyone who’s wrestling with an intolerable threshold.
For me, it’s not the literal losses as much as the loss in confidence. FWIW, I had the same sick kind of feel that Sunday night silver thrusted higher — something I will pay more attention to in the future.
Glad to see you are still here, Eamonn! (Send dog food!!)
Well at least my canker soar finally healed today..
Matthew – from http://www.seclaw.com/docs/RIAOverview.htm
We are often asked if the publisher of an investment newsletter is required to be registered as an investment adviser. As noted above, Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 (15 U.S.C. § 80b-2(a)(11)), which is a key federal law, defines “investment adviser” in part as “any person who, for compensation, engages in the business of advising others, either directly or through publications or writings, as to the value of securities or as to the advisability of investing in, purchasing, or selling securities, or who, for compensation and as part of a regular business, issues or promulgates analyses or reports concerning securities.”
However, expressly excluded from the definition is “the publisher of bona fide newspaper, news magazine or business or financial publication of general and regular circulation.”
Section 401(f) of the Uniform Securities Act, upon which the majority of state securities laws are based, similarly excludes from the definition of investment adviser “a publisher of any bona fide newspaper, news column, newsletter, news magazine, or business or financial publication or service, whether communicated in hard copy form, or by electronic means, or otherwise, that does not consist of the rendering of advice on the basis of the specific investment situation of each client.”
Since a bona fide newsletter publisher is not an investment adviser, registration as such is not required.
The May GLD 160 calls that I paid $.02 for now have “N/A” for the bid.
That’s kind of funny I suppose.
How have your previous cankers correlated with silver bottoms? Can you give us some hope? 🙂
Hey Vonda and others! Hope you are well.
Yep, have about 90% of the retirement in AGQ. My choice for personal reasons, and I gladly own it. It’s great to live in a country where I am free to invest. This has been a good education.
I will be fine… I’m young still and I know that after learning from Gary retirement is possible someday. If I had stayed in mutual funds and self-picked stocks, that never would have happened with the small salary I make.
Gary didn’t force you to invest, you chose to. Own your decisons and your gains and losses as well, and move forward. That’s my goal here.
Be safe everyone!
Farm Girl – you have sufficiently blown up matthew at this point. If he thought he was making a legitimate point (he wasn’t with the SEC stuff), then he should be gone…
if he keeps it up then he’s just here to stir up trouble… i’d ignore from now on
Nice of you to post and great to see you (alive and well)!!!!
One other point: A swing low just means a possible rally has started. AS swing low means yesterday’s high was bested without the low being violated. It assures you of nothing. East to have a swing low and then plunge…just for the record. If it happens during the timing band for a bottom the presumption is that if a rally gets started that’s it, but it is just a presumption. (If I have hits wrong someone please correct me)
Unrelated:Damn Poly! Every post of yours has me nodding my head. “Show some respect and civility, it’s during a “crisis”, ones true colors are revealed. Well said.
On Gary’s behalf: This is a brilliant investor with a load of integrity. I am and have always been impressed. I have always felt, however, that the market is lilke a heat-seeking missle. It finds your weakness and homes in on it, and one day, Bang! Every single trader (and person) has weaknesses. the question is how we compensate for them and build a strategy that takes them into account, IMO
Looks like very strong support at silver trading at 34 dollars
I’m not a particularly good trader yet. But I do have the ability to sell to stop the bleeding – that’s got to be a talent, of sorts. 🙂
When I read the disclaimer on the main blog page I thought it was pretty clear…
I wish I could say ‘yes’, but I hope it’s a good sign.
Bollinger band crash trade on silver can kick in any day now.
Vonda, I bailed out at silver spot = $41. I needed to protect my core capital. I lost all my profits though.I am hopeful that this crash will portent a huge rise again in silver.In any case, I have learned a lot from this. Its been a hard few days
This is a chart from Turd:
I’d say sentiment is just about sufficiently bearish.
O.K. For the first time in 35 years my stomach in a knot has given a bad signal. First time for everything, unfortunately. Vuvvy’s signal not doing much better.
I may add back a few shares I sold if we get some kind of end-of-day reversal.
Going to bed with tears ;(
Guys get ready!!!
This may be it
That’s funny. (But I went ahead and ordered one for me too 🙂
lol, we’ll find strong support at zero. 🙂
I agree. Why sell agq now when we have not even taken out the last daily cycle low?
So glad to hear it! Seems you have internalized the primary wisdom: protect capital. Excellent!
Going out to walk with said dogs. Hope I don’t miss too much excitement, but if the PMs would like to put in an EOD reversal, ok by me.
Good one, SB! For the longs, zero is certainly the place where uncertainty disappears!
garyI am looking at $HUI at July, 2010. The chart looks similar. Does that mean we have to wait for another 2 weeks before $HUI take off?? does that fit your cycles analysis?
Zero is too high. I’m holding out for someone paying me to haul away all their heavy physical.
I subscribed recently and have lurked around the comments section as silver went up and came back down. I’d like to add a few things from my perspective, take it for what it’s worth. 1. AGQ – Leveraged ETFs decay. Silver may drop from $50 to $35 and then go up to $50 again. If/when that happens, AGQ won’t be $380, it’ll be much lower. Read this article if you’re not familiar with this concept. http://seekingalpha.com/article/119316-double-and-triple-etfs-decay-their-value-faster-by-design2. You may take analysis from anywhere but at the end of the day, YOU trade your money. Every trader is different. Some people can take massive drawdowns and patiently wait out a counter move as long as they know they’re right. Others, like myself, can not. Which is why I closed my positions on Monday. When I first started trading years ago, I almost blew out my account under similar circumstances. It was tough at the time but I learned from my mistakes and have been better off because of the experience. It is important to know your trading style and trade according to that.3. Lastly, gold is currently battling with support at $1475. I hope for everyone’s sake that it holds. But in case it doesn’t, the next stop is $1440.For people who are taking a loss, I hope that you can make it back in the coming weeks. “If you have a losing position that is making you uncomfortable, the solution is very simple: Get out,because you can always get back in. There is nothing better than a fresh start.” – Paul Tudor Jones
1474 is the bottom for gold. It’s back up from here.
Timmy Knight nailed this sh!t on the miners. Kudos to him.
I did what someone proposed here and pulled up a lt. chart of silver and went to the back of the room.There is still much space to the downside before I would consider a trend support.It comes in around 32,50$. We sure dont need to go there but I will be waiting a bit longer with adding more.
But as Future traders are the gods de jour, I think we will,(IF), get the bounce over night.And dont forget to look at the euro/dollar pair with the euro beeing more than 40% of the DX basket. Next resistance should come in about 1% lower from here (1.4400)so there is still downside space which can be filled.
And my two cents: Garry has done an outstanding job and everybody is responsible for their own accounts.I guess lots of people here which dont trade for a living still have to learn how to manage risk. That is the most import thing when you play the markets. I have to admit I although got caught big time, blinded by greed for more $$.But I dont use leverage and still have, even after a 30-40% haircut in my PM positions,profits left. And that is Garrys genuine work.
Thanks Garry I hope if silver bounces back I can drive over to swiss in June and invite to a German Thank You beer.
Sb, Do I keep the miners now into the “A” wave???
When I got hit hard in fall of 08 (before I found Gary) I did all of the common things (short bull markets, overleverage with OTM options, use too much leverage in general, rely too much on indicators) and I had traded for 4 years consistently.
What I was trying to say (specifically to T&J) was that going long a bull market, adding at intermediate cycle lows,and holding Old Turkey is the only way I’ve made the kind of money that I think we are all trying to make, and it’s because of the lessons Gary has taught me and time (you won’t make money overnight).
Even in a bull market, in the intermediate term there is only one buying chance guaranteed to make you money, and that is at a low like right now:
At a low: weak hand, invest capital and wait to reach strong hand status, then add margin
In a consolidation: weak hand, invest capital and be willing to live thru wiggles in account balance, and even after a good run up, it might retest consolidation and you might be dead-even, this is where you add margin and becom strong hand
In an uptrend/top: weak hand, get some capital in the game, but if it retests the consolidation or has a daily or intermediate low, you are most likely going to lose before you gain, but at the swing low this is where you go 100% and once you become a strong hand then add margin within reason.
I lost my account balance twice before I did ok, and then got hit with that in Fall 08. Gary is the only way I’ve done as well as I thought I could, and I know this is a tough time for everybody, but look at where we were in the charts where you first invested and where you added margin before you get on Gary, because he has the best approach of anyone I’ve ever seen.
This is yet another lesson for me in the category of take small losses so you don’t let them turn into big losses. (I did this very thing with a VXX position last summer. I am a very slow learner.)
Fortunately I am still well up for the year, but the this week I gave back about 1/3 of this year’s profits.
Thanks for the post.
You wrote: “Even in a bull market, in the intermediate term there is only one buying chance guaranteed to make you money, and that is at a low like right now: …”
So how do you know that right now is a buyable low, that we don’t have much further to drop here? For example, what if we are just at the beginning of the move down into the next IT low?
Miners now getting BLASTED.
At least everything has leveled off – dollar, silver and gold. If it breaks down lower for silver, as it seems to be, I will take my massive loss and be out. Whoever is still in can enjoy the ride up then.
I bought a bunch at almost the exact low yesterday was scared to buy yesterday having never bought a falling knife before. Well, serves me right. My orders are in place.
Anticipating the C-Wave finale only to find that we were in the midst of the D-Wave… The markets continue to baffle, even with all the tool’s at our and Gary’s disposal.
Tough call. If I don’t see some sort of strength before the close, I’m inclined to sell 1/3 to 1/2 my miners. They are still sick if they couldn’t follow through higher (at least a little) today.
They are all bargains long term, but I don’t see any reason to hold when I can buy back.
Let’s see, but I’ll be sure to post when I do something.
I just remembered that Pres Obama only a few days ago proclaimed that he had put together a task force to root out the evil oil speculators.
Apparently crude and Brent are plunging as fast as the metals now, so one has to wonder if there is a connection. Could the unlimited Fed money fueled and algo powered TBTF banks act as a catalyst to bring down the entire commodity complex?
I’ve ceased to be amazed by the level of intervention going on so I wouldn’t rule it out.
AGQ is coughing up blood now,
I’m starting to think there is a surprise rate higher of a token 1/4% or so in the offing.
Somebody is selling, and selling a lot, into weakness.
Thanks SB, I was thinking along those lines. 🙂
Silver makes a fresh low for the day. Unbelievable.
Well, that settles it. While I was typing I was stopped out of almost half my NUGT.
SVM still not close to stop out.
That makes it easier, I suppose.
All right, I did my bit. Just bought more GDXJ and AG. Am 2/3 invested.
Now I’m going walking . . .
This is a nightmare.
Well I just sold the last of my AGQ, only 25 shares. Therefore the bounce can begin.
A few lessons learned by me…………again.
Stops always need to be in place.
The draw down was result of poor trades, chasing in the last two weeks = Greed
Triming and selling into the moves worked very well, but my moves over the last two weeks negated a lot of success.
Again the market is not my worst enemy, I am.
Just my thoughts.
Vonda, wow! Brave lady you are
I meant “rate hike” above, not rate higher.
Looks like we have 2/3 of a head and shoulders top on GDX, GDXJ, and SIL. Haven’t checked the other charts, but if the second shoulder peek develops I’ll sell my GDXJ there and wait for a break to new highs to get back in, unless it rolls over, then I’ll get back in sometime in the future.
Could have doubled your capital in 5 days by putting yourself into ZSL last Friday, crazy…
Wait for the swing low.
Lesson learned : (
HL has a gap at 7.0
Would not be surprised if it nails it.
Well, there are a few PM related ETF’s on the BoW list today, maybe offering a little hope that a bottom might be near (or maybe it’s I’m just smoking hopium).
GDX, SLW, SIVR, and DGP are on the list, but the numbers are nothing to write home about.
I need a cigarette
market 1 james 0
when cnbc has “pros” that tell you that this is a temporary pullback and you should be buying and looking to the long term, I think that would be a pretty good indication that we need to get out.
this would almost seem like the perfect scenario where we would expect a bounce from this huge selling pressure and everyone loads onto the boats anticipating a bounce back while the big money is gladly selling to the eager buyers thinking it will go back up. imo
Now HUI kissing the 200 day MA
Will GLD hold? http://i.imgur.com/duvls.jpg
long term not worried I can hold> short term july slv calls and any doubled derivative security..pretty much done for…short term we hit 35 like I said earlier, probably break down to 31. 85% chance..and worse case scenario is they release bad new about euro and we go back to 26..don’t worry I am not a evil troll I own a lot of PM’s
AGQ down 20 % today alone! Unbelievable.
If the un- employment report is grim tomorrow, which is just might be AND they raise rates? Hah, the entire market is going down!
Trader H? Big Money selling into $35 silver when they could have been selling into the high 40’s all last week? That doesn’t seem particularly intuitive to me.
OK– Capitulated my AGQ–Had no margin— Had large holdingsHad not looked at acct since FridayNot as bad as I had envisioned :))TERRIBLE TERRIBLE FEELING!!Anyway, since I capitulated we can get ready for liftoff :))Live to fight another day! (Will have no problem getting back in when the swing forms–(IF EVER))
This is forced liquidation, like in 2008.
Somebody big — probably several somebodies — are going to float to the surface soon.
Now that I’m now out, I can see a little clearer.
I think I’ve been here before…
This does has the feel of big players trying to flush as many people away as possible so they can grab bargains before a big rise.
I venture to join those who believe that there will be a strong recovery from here – which we can jump onto when it looks safe.
1. When the dollar is falling hard and miners refuse to repond, listen to them.
2. When things go parabolic, sell them.
“If the un- employment report is grim tomorrow, which is just might be AND they raise rates? Hah, the entire market is going down!”
Based on today’s unemployment claims being horrible, you might be right.
What will eventually happen is the pullback will hit stocks, then QE III will begin to be anticipated, and off to the races again.
Have to be careful to not let a silver drop to $22-$25 blow you out though.
Leverage always cuts deeper when it goes against than for.
I’m putting my foot down and ordering the drop to stop.
I wish it was that easy…
A failed “gut” signal means a trend change.
3. Buy at the swing low
I did 1) and 2)
but still got killed today
The time to try a silver long again will be when we get a huge puke day on massive volume.
Then the bottom will be in short term. Don’t play around trying to guess where “support” is.
There is none at this point.
Large puke on huge volume will be your trigger to dip a toe back in.
Fact is though, if SLV drops to 20$, I’m back to where I was.
You don’t call this huge?
Oil down BIG..Is there any doubt this is a D wave down for the metals?
Gold – the big picturehttp://i.imgur.com/DgHLB.jpg
Thinking the cyclical bull in stocks is over, too.
Oh my fook God!
Volume is large – but not that much larger than the spike in volume that occurred near the highs. I would guess SLV will see a 400mm share print into a large puke.
Just my worthless opinion on the future.
Well, with everyone bailing left and right, it really adds insult to injury knowing that JPM is laughing all the way to… er… while being at the bank.
There went my minilong stop loss at 34.90 by the way. A decent chunk of money going poof. 🙁
I’m still in with LON:LSIL but can’t sell until tomorrow – I’m down 40% on that trade after buying in with silver at 46, probably be down 60%+ by the morning.. ugh.
Been long on PMs since 2005, but never used leverage till last week. I feel like such an idiot.
I am going to wait for the nightly report and make my decision tonight for what I will do with my positions. Too emotional right now to make a rational decision.
You know it’s bad when you’re hanging underneath the bull.
1445 on the gold futures is a significant price level. If it’s breached, it would invalidate the obvious wave count that would support a move to new highs. Not saying that new highs would become impossible if that were to happen, it’s just that the obvious wave pattern would no longer be in play.
we should go short silver and try to make up the lost gains
Oh the humanity!
By the way, the SoCal SMT C-wave finale get-together has been cancelled due to inclement weather.
New date TBA.
This looks like major capitulation…Gold down $50+silver down $4+
I say buyers come in NOW! 3:15 p.m. Everyone likes to call a bottom, but that was CAPITULATION!!! 🙂
Hey, here’s a positive “wish’ for tomorrows Report. IF SLV gaps open , and ZSL gaps down…Thats very positive as a trading pattern.
see ‘Island Top’ and ‘Abandoned Baby’ ( if thats the real names…my buddy used to call it a dumpster baby, but THAT was way wrong). Anyone familiar with those?? Gap down, gap up…they usually Rocket out of there.
Anyone buying end-of-day?
I’m putting my neck out here, and I’m admitting that I bought miners too early, I’m down 15% ATM, but this is the buy point with no margin. The only problem is people with no skin in the game don’t go looking for pm blogs/newsletters at times like these, but this is a true Rothschild moment right here.
razvan- I am with you. I think we are lining up with a low in June. Long term still intact you just have to climb a bit higher up the mountain to get a look. Of course don’t listen to me. That’s not advice.
Capitulated! Done and out with massive losses. Have a small amount of gold.
Live to invest another day!
Now lets see everything rise!
HUGE move on the dollar today, biggest green candle in almost a year. And on more than double the average volume on DX futures.
UUP huge volume as well.
i’m about 90% sure the majority of lows are put in in the AM hours and would not buy PM dips EOD.
i think what we need to look for is a very large gap down w/ strong fill on some bad-for-PM news. tomorrow or monday seem good.
yeah cory, but we may get some more tomorrow and Monday. Also what if it just keeps on rolling down hill?
Just as an FYI– Also sold NUGT when I sold AGQ– Kept SIL SLW and a little DGP (and a couple small options SLW and SLV)Gut less knotty— (Food still not staying down well) :))))Good Luck all!!
What made you buy now instead of waiting for the swing low?
I think we should start a thread of “best quotes for signs of capitulation”.
Here’s mine “Ay dios mio!”. (And I don’t speak Spanish)…
I felt lucky to get AGQ for 120 a while back. I didn’t realize I might have another chance, although I wonder if it would just tank after that.
Over this trading day, looking at the gut-wrenching relentless selling, I’ve actually come to believe that we’ll indeed see 31 before this is over. Why? Simply because the post-parabolic chart patters give all the algo-running big guys the alibi to make that happen. Noone will question it since it’s deemed par for the course. And I’m pretty convinced that by 31 they’ll have rooted out 99% of the paper invested small fry like us.
Checking in from Indonesia.
Yes. I picked up some GG near the lows. See if it holds.
We have been had!
I posted this against the previous blog post of Gary’s so I thought I would just move it forward.
Silver support levels based on what I see on monthly chart…if they are of any use:
I’d bet some big guys were put out of business this week.
People need to be mentally ready if and when the reversal comes…
Clear your heads, the reversal maybe violent!
Matthew said “don’t worry I am not a evil troll I own a lot of PM’s”
lol. Just how gullible do you think we are?
I’m all for riding out fear, but I think when gold dropped below 1490 with conviction and stayed there….and then kept dropping to the 1470s it was a sign that we had transcended fear.
As bodies float to the surface, hindsight will bring everything into 20/20, but as Doc likes to say, our “framework of expectations” was shredded to bits. That’s why I sold. (and for personal financial planning reasons unique to my needs)
Nice to live through such historical moments like this !
AGQ almost 100% retracement!!!
Smells like the dollar printed its 3-yr low at a much higher level that anticipated. End of QEII and many foibles in Europe I’m sure contributed to the better than expected performance.
That’s funny! Hang on…
Glad to see everyone is seeing the light finally…good news is we are only a few dollars away from the 200dmva then we have summer doldrums and by the end of the year we should test the highs again. All simple patterns from studying this bull.
There’s always something to be gained from seemingly bad circumstances.
I feel this has made me stronger [again!] … and feel it won’t seem long till I’m back where I was [feeling rich] at a higher level than a few trading days ago.I got myself levered nicely for the last couple of dollars to 50 … so lost painfully!
Usually I had to go through the agony alone … as I didn’t know any other traders. But on this site, with Gary, this feels like a good experience – strengthening.
And good to share it with you all.
The last few days on this blog has been like riding a roller caster down in slow motion. [I did prefer the slow grind up, though…]
I sold because I was stopped out.
I use such wide stops that I am rarely stopped out 2x in a row. Only happens every 2-3 years, and typically an “event” follows which explains the atypical movement. We’ll find out!
When is the next A-wave starting? Don’t show the weekly candle on SI to the children. Another day left, any buyers left though!!
If we start to reversal violently I may not wait for the swing low.
Because that’s a lot of upside
I have deep pockets and a low basis.I ain’t selling Jack at this point.
At 43-45, I’ll sell half, if that range appears soon. If not, screw’em. There will be a massive physical shortage in SI and that means this price range is a lot more solid than those who are fretting over their greedy leverage and now trapped situation compulsion to sell.
This is the selling climax, obviously.
Unfortunately, all the charts have so much damage that a rally might be very sharp BUT short lived for the next few days.
It usually takes awhile for things to resume. Sure was a lot more fun making 5% every day while sleeping in! 🙂
We have gone back to the consolidation area (T1), there is capitulation and volume, and as long as you don’t use margin risk is low long term. This is where the Buffetts of the world buy and hold.
My account is back to where it was the day silver peaked. Thank the lord for put options.
“Sure was a lot more fun making 5% every day while sleeping in! :)”
If you are around, are you still holding your GLD options that you bought last week (June 140 & 160)?
Or did you bail out when the market turned against you?
Again, I’m trying to learn from the master.
Would you buy a DITM GLD call option today? If so, what strike and expiry?
Low of the day was the 61.8% retracement from the last daily cycle low in March; it also coincides with the trendline off the March cycle low.
The next best level of support imo is the $1440 level which was the last breakout level.
This is the second time in my life that silver has reached up to touch $50 only to be viciously butchered right after.
I wonder if it’ll happen again in 2040.
Going for a smoke
Tomorrow is a big day
Free fallin silver…free fallin silver
I worked for an individual who had tremendous success in this game and he had the best advice when in this situation. For starters, turn off the computer and go home…your trading day is over. Then do exactly what you would’ve done if you just had the best trading day of your life – pop champagne, drink some cocktails, have sex with your spouse, whatever. For me, it’s playing with my son. It’ll put you in the right frame of mind and give you some perspective on what’s truly important. Give it a shot…it works.
Tomorrow is a big day, obviously.Is this a sell the rumor, buy the news type of event? Seems like a distinct possibility.
Little story, I’ll keep it short…
I bought AMZN last spring right before the earnings report. It went up the next day, thought I was a genius. Then of course we all know what happened, it retraced all the way to something like 50% of what I paid for it. At the time I was not a sub, but was following Gary. I emailed him and asked him what to do. At that time he could answer emails. He told me to hang on, the market would probably correct.
So, I did, and I wound up selling AMZN for a profit before getting into PMs.
Moral of the story, Gary does know a lot more than I do, so I guess I’ll keep following his advice, ’cause so far it’s been good.
GPL on a 10 day chart…it’s bouncing off this bottom repeatedly , as silver rockets DOWN daily. They CANNOT break that bottom 🙂
today GPL just retested the March 14 low on less than 1/2 the volume. sellers seem to be gone. Stochastic is OVERSOLD buried. Can I borrow some cash anyone? 🙂
just bought some GLD june 138 calls… bollinger crash trade should provide at least a bounce
What puts did you buy?
would you buy more today?
If so, what?
So far anyway HUI is at a higher low. That’s still encouraging for the miners’ near term prospects.
Monday, April 18, 2011SLV to 24
pst- got the same advise this week. good stuff.
SB, I agree with you, a move like that must be hiding something like a surprise rate hike or an info that we will read in the news over the w/e….
buy everything and dont see the computer. If you will make it back soon.
Whats the reasoning for Gary’s change?
Does he believe we’re entering a D wave? Or is he just protecting against margin call?
Buy everything and dont see the computer for next one week. You will make it back by selling at much higher prices.
Assuming this is the D-Wave, Silver at 30.75 would be 50% retracement of the move from the March ’09 low to last week.
Past D-Wave retracements of silver (roughly, since my crummy eyes are eyeballing the fibs):2004:61.8% 2006:61.8%2008:Over 100% (110% ish)
I forgot to add, but sometimes it hurts. 😉
Now I know what a D-wave looks like…
The fly in the ointment is the dollar. It’s hard to look at the dollar chart and not believe that the 3 year low is in place. If that’s true, PM’s will go nowhere but down until the dollar’s rally is complete and that could be months.
No I wouldn’t buy more, too late am really debating selling here cause we may bounce hard tomorrow but on the other hand I think we will hit the 200dmva before my options expiry so I should make more if I hold.. Have slv July 46s, 43s, 39s and October 31s…. Most of it is in July 43s. Funny how they were all worth only 2% or so of my portfolio and now there probably around 15%. All cash otherwise.
this is perfect – love the negative sentiment
When the Hunt bros were hosed by exchange rules which were changed to allow only liquidations, I believe that I read that several of the exchange directors were short silver in their personal accounts.
Thieves, all of them.
This ain’t no D-wave
It’s a freaking F-wave!
So the conclusion is if this is the D wave, then silver has quite a bit more downside before it bottoms.
A pretty constructive bounce back in gold miners here from the 200.
I think people here got too caught up in the silver mania. I think this also illustrates why you should stay from instruments like AGQ unless you have very good selling into strength discipline.
Exited the remainder of NUGT into this bounce, leaving only some SVM for now.
This dollar bounce was stronger than I anticipated. Staying the course.
CNBC just said that the CME is raising margin requirements again tomorrow and Monday on silver! More bloodshed to come.
It seems in hindsight that this precipitous decline can largely be attributed to the persistent margin hikes in silver
GLD just lower by 7.4%That’s 0.2% more the same as the daily cycle correction in november.Less then three weeks later we had a new high.
Just staring at the red numbers doesn’t help you a lot. I just took a warm bath, and was rethinking the fundaments. With the new unemployment claims Ben will have to start printing quicker. The rally up will be quick.
Fasten your seatbelts .I am going all in know, a good cocktail call mix in SLV, GLD, AXU, EXK, GDX, GDXJ, SSRI & SLW. Now just wait & see…
bought 100 shares of AGQ
in the last minute..
A F U to the market!
Sorry been trading my accounts. Honestly, I don’t feel comfortable saying what to buy at this point, we can all agree the action has gone beyond expectations, even for a cycle low.
I had to reduce a lot of my exposure added the last two days, for decent losses. I’ve kept a lot of the OTM in play as these should do well on a bounce back. I’m into damage control mode, preserving capital to live another day.
I hope to capitalize on a short term bounce to re-capture much of the last two days losses and will then assess where we stand then. Sorry if that is not more helpful.
I thought I was getting past my PTSD brought on by the massacre I suffered in SKF. I was holding that one when the SEC decided that bank stocks could no longer be shorted. Never again, just became let’s do it all over again.
My opinion: Be careful about jumping in. As TZ said, that’s what cooked him in 2008. You think it can’t go lower and then…oops! Keep your capital warm and safe until we get a clue as to what the hell is going on here. If you want to take a shot with an intelligent tight stop, maybe o.k. But the gap can kill you the next morning even if you are in the black at the close. Better to save the capital.
Also cleared out SVM, leaves me flat.
It’s been some ride. I’ll look to enter again either when a news event breaks that gets this action behind us, or at a cycle low.
I will say that the damage will take longer to clear than most of us will want to wait.
You’re going all in? (Or were you joking?) Today, or tomorrow, or wait for the swing low?
I am also in damage control mode, probably should have trimmed more. Seems unlikely that after a day like today, the market will just head straight back up. I would expect first a slowing of the rate of descent, then some sideways action, then maybe we head back up.
Or we could just bounce quickly, but I would read that as a dead cat bounce and look for lower lows after it completed.
What are your expectations for tomorrow and Monday?
Does anyone here think silver can go to $26 by Monday??
Why am I asking? Because last weekend, silver at $34 by Thursday was also unthinkable.
Didn’t do anything today. I want to see what Gary says about the dollar changing direction one day before the employment report, and then I want to see the employment report. If gold comes back faster than silver (at first) Ill have time to redeploy some DGP and my cash into AGQ at better relative prices.It’s the dollar that crashed all the commodities today, so the future of the dollar is key. My gut is that Gary is right, and there’s one more big tumble in the $ and a big run in gold, silver and the miners ahead of us. But maybe it starts in June when those employment numbers are reported.
I’m not trying to talk anybody out of getting involved, but I’ll get paid sooner or later if I respect my risk tolerance.
We didn’t get a respite that lasted more than a few hours the entire week.
I’ll still only consider the long side of metals (no shorting these), as the secular bull is intact.
Have a nice weekend, everyone.
For me, this is a good time to dive into the Bible to get some eternal perspective.
When silver goes up after there is a margin hike, that will be the all clear. I think that will be tomorrow or monday. Given how crazy this market is, silver could be over $40 by the end of next week. If Gary wanted everyone off the bus for the big spike, I think his wish has been granted.
Staying the course, following Gary, I don’t know enough to claim I know anything about what is happening. I do hope this is the pull back we have been expecting.
I can tell you this, I was reading the board yesterday thinking, not enough people are crapping their pants, people are elated. This thing will likely go lower. I have a sick sick feeling and hope this drop ends Friday or Monday.
Pull up a weekly candle on silver if you dare. We will not be hitting new highs on silver for awhile now. Assuming we hit a trading bottom today, there should now be significant resistance on silver around $41. I will be exiting any remaining core silver positions in that area on what will now become a dead cat bounce. Seasonality is here. There will be no PM’s in my beach bag. 🙂
I think “enough” people are crapping their pants now. Ugh. Time for a cocktail.
And agreement with SB, as ugly as things look, I don’t want to short anything here.
well while we’re all waiting to buy in again (erm?), i would recommend this PDF by martin armstrong about gold:
he does a lot of looong term macro cycle stuff (PI cycle) and when he wrote that in early march he said that for the bullish case for PMs to continue he wants to see a low put in around early june. he also put a cap on gold around 1530. not bad.
so in the back of my mind i’m preparing myself to see a steady drip lower all month. that would seeming jive with gary’s work if this is indeed the “D wave”.
Oh, and whoever said the recent volume on UUP was not relevant. Now you know why it is.
Bear markets often end with:1. Violent up move recapturing a week’s losses2. Record bearish sentimentSound like the dollar. i am not convinced the 3 yr low is in, but it well may be, in which case it is game over for PM’s. We should know by the middle off next week. I am long some DGP and no silver; nothing I can’t easily handle till next week now.
Imagine what the D wave will look like.
I sold out of everything today. That move in the dollar was too large to be ignored. I will probably go back in 25% agq with a tight stop once a swing low is formed. If the dollar rolls over and makes a new low I will invest the rest of the portfolio and assess the strength of the up move.
This chart is jaw dropping. Just stunning.
Martin Armstrong has a very important cycle low date around June 13 or 14, 2011 in that article. He calls it a “Economic Confidence Model Turning Point’. they are very infrequent.
The dollar rally should be over by tomorrow as there is option expiry tomorrow with loads of strikes around 1.49 They just want the € not to blast through… yet.
EXK just reported 14x profit increase in Q1.
With all this kind extreme sentiment and even people thinking of starting to short right know, the bottom must be in. The funny thing is just playing out as Gary predicted.
@pimaCanoni was in for 50%, today for 100%. (i brought back more GDX, EXK, SLV and GLD, today & yesterday)I sold last week all SLV around 46-47-48. Because i only had calls, i decided not to catch the last upside and to sell 2/3 on monday and the last third on friday. Even then, i made most of the money just by going all in at the intermediate low and waiting. I allready made the mistake last may, sometimes it better to take somepart of the table, just for peace of mind.
st. d- we did go through 1531.19 (his level) and his thinking was that if we did we might hit 1775 and as high as 2k-2500 in June with a pullback in the fall. As he writes, the price isn’t the issue it’s the pattern. We don’t want an exhaustive phase transition which silver obviously experienced.
sorry to hear you guys chalking up the loses..
there’s blood on the streets for sure today.
gold is a definate buy right now.
it’s right on target 1470.
Imminent Crash In Silver?
Just in case silver may get an epic crash I re-entered ZSL at the close, to hedge my silver positions. An awful close like this usually indicates more downside.
ZSL represents 25% of my long silver positions.
Sorry bulls, I’m now hoping for a CRASH.
Nice job. I wish you luck on going all in today. I still have some positions, haven’t given up completely yet, but I think odds are high that the drop is not over.
The dollar is the most troubling. Hard to believe that it could have such a huge rally on such huge volume and still have more downside in store.
Hoping for a crash? WTF did we just witness the past few days?
People shorting silver is even more suicidal than going long silver futures.What is wrong with you people? Dont you know that you should never short a bull market? Tisk tisk tisk
DG, how’s it looking? I am still hanging on…. with gritted teeth.
Could it be that this is indeed the dreaded D-wave?
We just had a crash, genius.
And if ZSL represents only 25% of your “long silver positions”, then you are net long silver.
BTW, the true tell was when Beanie declared himself long silver. Now he’s declaring himself short.
Have the fundamentals in the dollar changed? I can’t think of any… Only thing that I can see as a real threat, something to cause continued commodity crashes, is if China is going to crash (or people think it will). China wags the commodity tail IMHO. We saw wide-spread commodity weakness today, and a 1.15% one-day move in the dollar caused that???? Seems that the commodity performance is not in line with a 1.15% up-tick in dxy. Just the thoughts in my head…
Anyone else having trouble accessing the premium site?
I WILL NEVER FORGET THIS WEEK FOR THE REST OF MY LIFE
Sorry a 1.5% move in $dxy
Anyone remember what day it was that Beanie came here to tell people proudly he was long gold/silver? That was probably the best day to sell. What was that day? Last week I think.
And now he is short via ZSL? Mark my words, this is probably the lowest it will go for while. In fact, I am am much more hopeful for a rally now! LOL!
WOW! Crazy chart..yes, jawdropping!!
I looked at the silver weekly candle TORERO91 mentioned. If this was Friday…that would say ALOT!!!
It still says alot, but $4 down today…if it could go up $4 tomorrow after the report (with some short covering ) –
– that candle would be more acceptable as a bounced off of the 20sma wkly ,reversal candle. At least for a bounce into next wk.
$4 would also regained the 50 sma daily that it crashed through today. For me, tomorrow will tell a story.
montana alex & rapper – yep. i hadn’t read it in a while, just typed the fuzzy details i remembered.
thought people might like a bright side to turn to.
my system is still bullish on both silver and gold but i am going to be a hell of a lot more conservative regards to waiting for a clear swing next time.
taking tomorrow off, crappy week. happy cinco de drinko.
If Gary wanted everyone off the bus for the big spike, I think his wish has been granted.(Gusto)
LOL – that was a good one
Yes, but with 2 caveats:
1)In 2008 there was a several month consolidation and upward move off the 50% retracement (which reclaimed 50-60% of what was lost) before prices headed down into the final D-wave low. I’m no cycle expert…but I’m assuming that the late 2008 plunge is part of the D-wave, even though it goes much longer than Gary’s guidelines.
In 2004 and 2006, Silver pretty much just headed down.
In 2008, Silver tracked Gold. In 2004 Gold led silver, and in 2006, it appears that silver led gold.
2) T pattern retracement offers bounce zones. There seem to be 2 options for this – we blew through 1 today and the other is at 31.50. I’ve put these in a chart at the below link:
Dollar has to reverse tomorrow or it may be lights out.
I just can get over it
a 100% retracement on silver!
Thanks, TJ. Based on your chart, we’re headed lower. Hey, you posted a chart! Cool! (You’d said yesterday I think that posting a chart was way too technical for you. Looks like tinypic is the way to go, I should learn how to use it and stop using Jing.)
I’m taking a break for a while, may get back on later and do some charting myself. If I find anything interesting, I’ll post.
st d- I have a bunch of the sections taped to my wall. good long term stuff to focus on. need the capital to get there! happy drinking.
As painful as this might be, anyone realize that Gold hasn’t even tested the 50 dma yet???
now that the d-wave is almost over, I am recognizing and saying that this is the d-wave
what frustrates me the most is that, not only did I miss making money on the d-wave, but also coughed my my profits from the C-wave
This is completely MY fault..lesson learnt for me..
this has been some week for me..I’m glad I learnt this lesson early in my life
That’s correct, more downside to come.
I mean more puking to come
David, we can still meet…at Taco Bell.
I still think we have one more leg up. If the dollar reverses hard tomorrow there’s your answer.
It would be ashame for most subs who think this is the D-wave and miss the final leg.
But one has to be mentally ready for anything in this arena!
Tinypic.com is definitely a good way to go for charts. Hat tip to St. Deluise for the recommendation.
Silver will, of course, continue to be a great investment. However, to me all time frames and price targets for this summer are off the table. Right now it’s not even worth a guess.
Apart from the possibility of a bounce, perhaps a violent one, in which AGQ might outperform all other PM vehicles again – AGQ is no longer the investment of choice. Not only is that apparent now in a downdraft, but I also wouldn’t choose it to buy any upcoming ‘bottom’. That is, because I just don’t think it is reasonable to expect a bounce here sizable enough to be worth the risk.
Silver might very well tread water for a while, and if so, AGQ is going to underperform in comparison. I am still in physical – I don’t care about the ups and downs, I think it’s the best and most stress free PM investment, long term. Temporarily, whenever we think there is a bottom in, SLV would be an ok investment too. One wouldn’t have to be as accurate with picking the bottom as one would need to be with AGQ. As for the miners, I remember 2008; they couldn’t make up their mind for a long time. They teased you to buy into their up moves only to disappoint immediately. They were all over the place. They then exaggerated the downward spiral in silver and outran silver on the way down manifold, so I’d be watching them with caution. SLW is still the best silver stock, and it has clearly been showing the way – then and now. Up and down. It’s the best windsock we have.AGQ will steam up again only once a new, durable rally is in the cards. I don’t think it’s in the cards now. A bounce might, but if the trend isn’t clear, AGQ will be a killer, and I mean that not in a good way.
To me there is no question that this is what should be labeled a D wave. Whatever it is called, it’s fine with me, but it is a collapsing parabola, that’s what counts. And buying this collapse is catching the proverbial falling knife. To me all these definitions (D wave or not) are all semantics at this point. You can call it all you want, but this is the end of this rally; but of course NOT the end of this bull.
I think it is possible that the PMs have yet to see the high of the year, but I think that’ll only come after seeing the low for the year first.
Also, it is unlikely that anyone will miss the next party if they just let the dust settle first. I, for one, will wait for the dust to settle.
Has the D wave Started without all of us knowing ???
What is PM ? repeatedly mentioned in many places in the comments . Appreciate if any one can brief it.
james r, One day a trend DOES NOT MAKE…. yet today’s action in Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Copper, Cotton, Sugar and other commodities reflects how important it is for all of us to get the currency patterns correctly…..even if you don’t trade them!
The Dollar was very near levels that it is today, back in 2008….Anyone remember what happened to the majority of assets back in 2008 when the Dollar took off?
Down they went–we better all pray for a lousy jobs report tomorrow and have the dollar drop or all hell could break loose
maybe. I was really hoping to miss the D-wave this time since I mostly did not in ’08. I have much more in PM’s than in ’08 so this has bitten much worse.
It’s looking to me like margin rate pressure has been used to initiate the D-wave to create a whole new set of bag holders. Must be great to go short to the hilt when you are holding all the cards like that. Not manipulation, of course, that’s just crazy talk.
PM = Precious Metals
Also, keep the big picture in mind. For the speculative investor this is a shocking moment, but for the PMs this is actually a healthy process, mid-term and long-term. And so is the fact that margin restrictions were implemented. All it means is that some steam has been taken out now so that silver has more steam to run in the future. Taking off the speculative edge only means that silver remains a solid and genuine investment for some time to come.
i got to go eat , i hate pukeing on a empty stomach
At Ease: I posted earlier. I sold all my AGQ at a little over 200. Got out. Cleared my head. Starting fresh. I am ahead for the year and now have the luxury to wait and pick a spot. Kept a chunk of DGP but that will be gone if DXY doesn’t tank by Monday. What a fantastic learning experience. I am going to make a lot more in 2013-14 now (and hopefully between here and there). This is a long distance race. i hope people here can lick wounds, recover balance, and do even better going forward.
What is troll? I see it all over the place.
I think silver will be damaged technically for years to come. This week is going to be remembered for a long long time.
Gold may continue to do well. Keep in mind that gold has risen in the past even in a rising-dollar environment. Gold is probably looking very attractive to our Euro friends right now.
The gold stocks are absurdly cheap. They are at the 200dma and the Gold/Xau ratio is 7.6:1.
So, even assuming this is the D-wave, you can swap all your leveraged ETFs into GDXJ, shut off the computer for the summer, and expect to see higher prices in the future — probably in the fall.
This is what happened to alot of us today, even G man.
Does anyone think this could be the D-wave?
jeff…..now that’s funny!
This is the time to rediscover “Old Turkey”.
I think we wandered a long way from the true path over the past few months. I include myself in that.
This was the D-wave.
if I may, I wouldn’t be too married to any time frames. I like the idea of being able to schedule my investments according to cycles that imply a 2011 to fall 2012 bear, followed by a 2013 – 2015 rally; but it sounds too good to be true. If it is though, I am all for it… 🙂
I am glad to read you remain up for the year!
I agree with David on the damage down to silver.
3 tries a picking the bottom in miners, and 5% capital lighter, I’ll let this sort out before taking another try unless a news item reveals the reason for indiscriminate selling.
I thought we had that yesterday with the 2 additional margin hikes, but today was no different. Bottom line is that somebody(s) with a LOT of metal has been dumping hard and until we get the reason behind us, I’ll preserve capital.
I bit the bullet and went to 50% cash today to preseve capital, as you suggested. Up until now, I’ve stayed 100% invested for the whole ride … just moved from stock to stock as I made adjustments.
What % are you in cash vs. invested right now?
David, Old Turkey is for the C-wave, not the D-wave.
Lets remain hopeful 🙂
Thanks for the charts Alex. They may help me sleep a little better tonight.
basil, too true about room to run. Now we need nearly a 50% advance to crack the old high that was just a whisker away last week.
Basil: I was just throwing that out as a “maybe” spot for the next PM blow-off. I will do that one better! I never marry time frames or scenarios. I’m a trader at heart. For me a reasonable time frame is a whole day. I just sort of married one two weeks ago and…er…it didn’t work out so well.
Well said. I’m with you and I really don’t care how many times Gary, Poly or anyone else insists that Gold is the one that determines whats going to happen in the cycles and waves.
Silver was the leader this time. It led gold. It determined the gold cycles and not the other way around. It went parabolic and crashed. It is in a D-wave by definition.
Gold may do something different, but whatever Gary has told us about D-waves is here for silver. It is unlikely silver highs will be regained for a while.
I’m not a cycles expert, but if this isn’t a D-wave (forced or not), I don’t know what is.
If the Fed can screw up cycles with QE, then why can’t a D-wave take hold without a blowoff top to the C-wave?
I felt that little- haha
Gotta: I am 75% cash. 20% DGP and 5% GDX (approximately). I may well be 100% cash by Monday if the buck doesn’t tank. If it doesn’t I am as sorry to miss the beginning of EUO as anything. Europe is junk and FXE is going down.
Old Turkey is a concept that predates cycle theory.
I thought the D wave is a 50% retrace event to the mean?
It appears as the volume spike on the dollar Gary was expecting has come, also, no?
Lastly, I thought we never sell into a cycle low but now the alternate strategy doesn’t seem to adhere to this? It also doesn’t appear to be alternate strategy since Gary sold his AGQ position?
I don’ think this is the D-wave because the dollar has not broke it’s three year low yet.
you are right; silver has been the leader this time around!
One thing for sure, time to buy more physical. 🙂
One last stat, silver is down over 28% this week.
Nice charts! How neatly it all fits!
Gives some hope, but there’s been way too much damage.
Former large PM trader Bob Chapman says his contacts tell him that DC invoked the liquidation to cover JPM.
You mean the whisky? I was thinking of trying that 😉
Oh…Thats wild turkey , my bad
I don’t think Gary’s sold his AGQ’s. He should’ve posted that in that case.
That motherfucker carlos slim. Folks, when you have alot of money like he does, you can do whatever the hell you want.
we pick ourselves up off the floor, we dust ourselves down, we take a couple days off, a step back, a deep breath(or 2)……..
then we start over with a fresh clean perspective
Jessie has been updating his Silver weekly chart with ongoing channel this entire run (from last year).
It was that initial break in early April that got me out of Silver at $42. Every time it broke that upper channel it promptly dropped back in. Now it finds itself back on the very lower level.
Without sounding like a broken record, you would expect it to find some decent oversold support right here and hold that channel. At least for some time before deciding which direction it will take.
G. did post his sale when asked, see above/back
– not “post” per se – mentioned it here
No surprise there. If you think about it, there were no news items whatsoever to catalyze this carnage (except for the rapid fire cartel controlled margin hikes). And the little dollar spike today is completely irrelevant as an explanation for this.
Basil- great comments. I only hope that silver is not damaged for years. And I suspect that physical shortages may.
DG- Well said – I’m of the same mind set. Clearing the slate offers an amazing perspective.
Ben – Before the economic/social hurricane headed for the US is over, a number of the bankers will, IMO, be hanging from lamposts, certainly at least figuratively.Interestingly, it seems that SLV Put volume was 22x normal last Friday – before the plunge
Meant to say ‘Physical shortages may keep the metal propped up’.
Clarkatroid … please put some clean underpants on first 🙂
No explanation is needed. The silver parabola exhausted itself, as always happens, and when that happens, it collapses, as we are seeing now.
I don’t think the margin hikes had all that much to do with it. That’s more a case of closing the barn door after the horses have already left.
have you ever thought about the implications of an evetually Daily cycle started on 26th April?
The only thing you can say about the dollar is that it stopped falling this week. Its not like it has been shooting up since Sunday night.
It did rise a lot today, but gold and silver just needed an excuse to sell off this week.
Gary and Doc did predict the sell off, but not to the extent it happened. The primary reason is that gold was only a follower here.
I’ll stick my neck out and say this…
Silver will not go lower than $31 (not withstanding perhaps an intraday flush).
This is not even 10% down from here. I don’t expect a quick recovery, but a more time consuming one where we might even revisit the low more than once.
Also, I believe that reinvesting at that price will have minimal risk (unless we have another major global financial crisis in the very near future, worse than what we have already seen – I don’t expect that), but will provide a great position for various time frames in which silver will climb back up to 50 and beyond. Then it’s just about going back to sitting old turkey style.
Thanks for that good news. That’s about all I feel capable of, actually. (Sitting with SLV for two years made me the tender profit I used to make my losses today.)
I think $25 is a distinct possibility.
Most D-waves bottom out below the 200dma.
The 200dma for silver is at $27 and change.
PS: Whether that time frame is 6 months, 12 months, or 18 – who knows…The beauty would then be that we wouldn’t have to know. We can just sit.
Agreed – time for more physical! Although the premiums are over $5.00 for 1 oz at APMEX
setting a price target for the bottom is, of course, guess-work; particularly when we are still in the collapsing process. I think you might be correct, I am just saying that would be my comfort zone for a long term investment (until the next C wave top).
Meanwhile, the XAU has already sliced below its 200dma.
As far as the miners are concerned, the D-wave is nearly over.
sorry avann your right, we take a step back, a deep breath, change our undercrackers and re-group bigtime
The 200 dma is at 28.29 today, still rising, and will continue to do so for a while. Also D-waves typically retrace half the C-wave. 25 is certainly not out of question, but unlikely.
Lets see where this first bounce takes us.
It all started with the Trichet press conference. His tone was dovish (his statement did not use a set of words used before). Prior to the conference I heard a tweet saying that the future of the USD is in Trichet’s hand. I should have paid more attention to it, given that we were in the coil and as doc posted the risk of the 3-year low being done was high.
The Euro broke down. Then Crude oil broke through 105. And then the mass liquidation trade started. It took all commodities down with it including Gold which had been holding up relatively well till it gave up the 1492 pivot.
There was too much speculative interest in Crude and it unwound today. Some trades made their year in crude today. Others lost their account. They removed the $10 limit down for crude today. Changed it to $20.
I should have closed my positions on the break of 1492 but did not. But getting ready to pull the trigger. I was using ratio spreads so the damage is limited.
In retrospect it was happening right in front of us. First /SI double topped last week. Then /GC double topped. The DX was forming a coil. There was news about Soros/Slim selling silver (Slim owns mines). The divergence in the miners. The seasonal weakness. It was happening right in front of us and was so evident in the price action but we missed it; getting to caught up in finding the daily cycle bottom for the parabola in gold.
The irony is that Gary really paid a lot of emphasis on getting out prior to the D wave’s start. /SI topped at 49.82. 18 ticks is the difference between a 300% gain and a loss of capital. The lesson is that when moves become parabolic, pay very close attention to what the market is saying.
I agree with Cory here. The consolidation pattern, if any, is between 36.70 and 33.70 or so. We are right at the middle of it today.
so… everyone thinks the C is dead huh?
there is not even ONE blog out there claiming that the rally is still on
talk about clearing sentiment…sentiment is at like minus 100 now
if ever, now would be the time for gold and silver to start rallying higher
I still am hoping that we rally into June 🙂
I’m with Alex, let’s stay positive- ZSL chart now looks parabolic (time for it to crash)
we start rallying tomorrow…tomorrow is the day to buy
I don’t care whether you call it a C-wave, a D-wave or a Z-wave. We just had a 33% crash in silver.
Larry,I sure hope it’s not. Have stayed put in my positions, taking a severe beating.
Troll,Need to see the bottom of the cycle so I can put the remaining powder to work and get that proverbial homerun!
God, I am mentally exhausted…
Blogger YesLetsDiscuss said…
Nice charts! How neatly it all fits!
Gives some hope, but there’s been way too much damage.
Thats when people need the most hope…if theres been too much damage and they’re still in. 🙂
Maybe we should wait for Gary to weigh in before declaring the C wave kaput. Remember, it’s always darkest just before the dawn. ..
SDJ- pretty incredible test of mental fortitude. It’s like that navy seal exercise when you lay on the beach and let the tide roll in on you.
Me either Diego Jack – stayed put.
It’s been crazy to watch almost everyone everywhere go so negative in the course of a week.
Someone earlier said it… when everyone else is fearful, be greedy, when everyone is greedy be fearful….
I positioned myself at the beginning to not lose more than I could afford. I’m still up… still believe we are due one more cycle up.. the big one.
Going WAY back for some chart action.
Noticed this gold channel from last summer with our trusty 144 DMA right at the bottom at 1399
MONSTER gold channel from 2008. That is a bull market. Notice the 144 catching price all the way up. Notice how it hates when you get too nutty to the upside like we just did?
If that was the cycle top and a D wave is coming. 50% min retrace of the whole move or 1220 gold
Silver will puke harder. I’d say 61.8
i just reached your post WOW what a chart that was…i didnt know where to begin- I do see that support…nothing below really , it SHOULD hold. 🙂
– I agree with your statement and I think Tomorrow will say alot. I really want my wkly chart to close with a reversal, bouncing off the 20sma and close on the 10sma….
-and a gap down and a close up on Miners is a bullish engulfing pattern ( I think?). Its bullish.
Good sign?? Yahoo Finance showing AG up over 7% after hours….just a typo? Have not seen any news so not sure if this true or not…..
If the dollar begins to crash(praying that it does) then margin hike be damned!
Silver and gold will make new highs
Yes I am mentally tired but not defeated.
People going short now are absolutley nuts. Silver RSI is extremely oversold on 5, 10 and 14 days. We are still above the March low.
We are very close to putting in a bottom, IMO. If it already isn’t in.
Good Sign?? Yahoo finance showing AG up 7% after hours, however could not find any news so still scratching my head wondering if it is accurate……
DD_Ing: That AG price was a “last sale price” posted out of order I suspect, because the current after hours offering is at 16.88
What a painful..A body without a soul.
I feel like a chump saying it over and over again, but these types of oversold conditions more than often result in a counter rally for 3-9 days. That would also work in the cycle context, printing a low and getting to Day 6-9 of the cycle on a decent rally back.
BUT, that is where the test and character of this C-Wave will be shown. Will it be Left translated and fail into a D-Wave? Judging from the action today, possibly, but I will leave that to Gary and Doc to determine. I’m preserving capital, but I’m sure as hell not going to capitulate right here. My Silver exposure is very minimal and I’m looking for gold to cycle low here so we can recover some of these losses.
Nice charts…like Alex’s there is some hope.
I looked on a different chart system and it reads AG @ $18.15 ..up $1.32
Thats back above where I bought…PLEASE HOLD!!! Suddenly I dont mind GAPS!
Thanks for posting that…now I can eat Dinner 🙂
Any thoughts on stops?Ridden this down so far…hanging tough…BUTIf this is the D wave brought on by the CME…shouldn’t we cut our losses and bail?Comments welcome.
Food for thought:Gary mentioned a 5% put allocation to SLV for the parabola collapse last weekend.
Assuming 5% of the principal were allocated (of 100%, not 140%) – If that were done Friday using June $34 SLV puts (the last daily cycle low), the SMT portfolio would be up 8% right now instead of down 37.3%.
Had this happened after going to cash at the top and then buying puts Friday (that was his eventual plan), it would be up 47%.
Timing, as always, is the key. The plan was perfect. Had it gone this way everyone would be back to talking about yachts and carrying a mattress under everyone of Gary’s climbs 😉
“I looked on a different chart system and it reads AG @ $18.15 ..up $1.32”
It’s true! BUT, it’s an AH print, there is a $16.88 Ask out 🙁
Great charts guys… it actually does make eating dinner easier…
I’m keeping the faith. Big Ben won’t get away so easy. Debt ceiling will have to be raised next week and QEIII is for sure.. *my opinion so I guess I shouldn’t say sure*… likely.
I’ve got all the time in the world – and I feel like the dollar doesn’t. Bottom line for me. The dollar is on life support. Silver valued at $35 in a dying currency… it’s laughable.
DG,In regards to AG, the 18.15$ price was one transaction of 3000 shares at 17:30EST. It has been followed by two other transactions so far of 150 shares each at 18:32EST at 16.88$ and 16.90$. Look at it on nasdaq.comDon’t read too much into afterhours.
AG afterhours on Nasdaq.
I guess the only thing we can do is watch the dollar.
Silver up 2% from the low it posted today at this time, thin market of course..
Mark Hulbert: Gold timers in denial:
I hear you..and I think a bounce out of here ( wouldnt 3-9 days be great!) would tell alot. If its a light volume 50% retrace of this move down…I’m out and will see if a D-wave is in force, or maybe a slight pullback from there and more upside. Trading is the way to go for me.
You still got your AG? I got (along with DD’ing) a few different reads that its up $1.35 to $18 +…I think you got $17.50?
While on vacation last week I overheard a conversation in a hotel between a husband and wife about gold and silver and whether they should consider getting into that market.
That was last Saturday night … on Monday I sold most of my HZU and HBU.
I wonder if they bought any …
🙁 couldnt let me party a little longer…every penny counts in these situations
Some reaction is expected, let’s see.
I still have my AG and a few other miners in 401k, don’t trade these accounts too much and no margin/options, so I’m in no hurry there 🙂
Who is Toby Connors and why are Gary’s charts on Kitcounder the connors authorship?
Thx for the link…truth hurts-tho
The “Who is Toby Connor” posts always give me chuckle.. especially the posts that say that “Toby is copying Gary’s posts”
BIGMACM,Toby and Gary are the same people
bigmac… they are same guy
Mr. M. You are confusing me with someone else. My system shows the offer at 16.88 for AG, just where it should be
Sorry DG,Meant DD_ing
Shout out to you!
Well played my friend. Big lesson for me today, played way too much on the expectation of a cycle low to catch more of the ride. Combination of over-confidence and greed took hard won cash away.Waiting for the swing would have saved huge.
Ben Davies called it:
Silver’s parabolic rise meant a HARD crash was inevitable. Remember oil at $147 and the crash back to $40??? Thats a 70+% drop!
Think about where a 70+% drop will take silver.
Personally I’m looking at the $27.50 area as the next major support.
This mkt is going down before it goes up. Mark my words.
More voices weighing in on what caused or maybe rather reinforced the plunge:
Both far from tinfoil hat wearing loonies.
Whoops…Wrong link on the gold channel since 08.
If that sucker breaks, look out.
And it looks like the drop has resumed again…
Going to bed now and not at all looking forward to tomorrow’s hard decisions.
Seems like Im the only one still in this game?Feels kinda lonely 🙂
Outside of Gary answering to someone on the blog that he sold all of his AGQ, anybody aware of it from his May 5 write up?
He did say it is an alternate strategy, but he did not give indication that he all sold out….
Any reason why he did not clearly stated that in a subscribers write up?
This also will maybe make some people sleep better:
Dollar starting to fall.
Another exhausting day tomorrow?
im hanging tough aaron
A lot of us (including me) are still playing…I will give it a few more days before I take my loses
I still think that gold will make new highs and silver will double top
All depends on the USD now…the next 3 days will seal our fate
Someone I know is very deep in the gold/silver market…He told me on Monday that Friday (tomorrow) is the day to buy…I didn’t listen and I kept buying since Tuesday and have been bleeding bad..I should have listened to HIM..I will buy my last but tomorrow…
*last BIT tomorrow
I actually increased my leverage today to 5X and added silver options. I have a little dry powder left incase gold drops ( I need to have plenty of cash to avoid margin calls). This is the first time that I have dipped in silver.There are way too many signs (to me) that this will reverse, and we will head higher. God speed.
I’ll be in tomorrow…
If the price start going up rapdily I’m jumping in and I will not wait for the swing low.
Gary or someone, can you answer questions below…I am a new subscriber and maybe missing something…somewhere..
Gary did say it is an alternate strategy, but he did not give indication that he all sold out….
Any reason why Gary did not clearly stated that in a subscribers write up?
To the (hopeful) silver bulls:
Trade what you see, not what you think. (I will stay short silver and take the other side of your trades).
Silver will go up again, but not yet. Remember the mkt can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
let’s be nice to trolls…
Thank you Rich for taking to time to post 🙂
I have NO DOUBTS anymore that we have a bottom and we rally to a 46 in silver
someone actually took the time to sign in and then make a troll post
“Remember the mkt can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”
The JMK troll sign-off… get lost, punk
As I keep repeating, buying before this thing before it hits the 200dmva is just a waste of money unless your short-term speculating. This thing will bounce at some point for a couple days to a few weeks and then it will roll back over.
Wasn’t it albert Einstein that defined insanity as doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results? Well in this decade long bull market weve seen parabolas over and over again and ALL of them have not ended until the 200dmva was reached. Don’t think you will get a different result this time!
I don’t think he had time to write it up — wasn’t today his travel day?
james r – why am i trolling? because you’re long in a heavily falling mkt and losing??? Let me give you some advice: don’t average down.
If silver goes up, then sure, buy.Right now it’s not been going up.
The site talks about cycles, waves (…and recently apparently tsunamis).
…but I wonder for those who ‘watch’ the news could it get any worse?‘-Soros out, Slim out, dollar up, CME margins up and huge whack on head for all us silver holders
News is always worst at the bottom.To confirm it, I’m going to sell my position tomorrow and watch the market go up. Trust me I’ve done it hundreds of times before 😉
@Gold Silver Troll – yeah keep buying silver – it’s been a great trade this last 5 days. Well done.
@traderRob – lol. Have a nice day.
@Dan – at leats someone is talking sense.
Gary sold AGQ position.He mentioned 10:48AM in this post
Wow, nice trading Rich. You’re GREAT! It takes a bona-fide risk taker to appear only after a big move and tell people how he has been taking their money.
Why not state your position when you take it? I know why. 🙂
Come here the next few days and share with the readers when you’re adding yo your shorts, if you don’t mind?
Btw, I’m entirely in cash.
how fabulous… the 442nd comment aat 4:42 pm… tis a sign
Deshy,I don’t pay any attention to what those whales say. Soros, Slim & even Warren Buffett say one thing, and do another.When Soros speaks, you can count on him doing the opposite, just to take advantage of the media, and the dopes that follow it (or him).
The troll meter is still disappointingly low.
Yeah, but Rich is spiking the meter a bit. 🙂
Speak for yourself!
You keep repeating yourself over and over
Throw Dan in the pile of trolls
Come on, Rich. I’ve got scarier trolls in my garden, for Chrissake.
Put a little more conviction into it.
We’re all counting on you here.
@Shalom – I’m not adding to shorts, I wouldn’t advise it here to be honest.
Sorry my opinions bother so many of you, but I don’t think its helpful to hold long positions through this type of fall.
Do I think silver will go lower before it takes out $50 – Yes.
Do I think silver will resume it’s climb after this correction – Yes.
Does my opinion matter – No.
Will I trade what i see, not what i think – Yes.
Does that help? (I’m sure half of you will answer “no” lol).
Signing off now.
Re. the markets: both the spx and the ndx (& a number of other indices) are forming weekly key reversal bars to the downside.
Aaron, I am all in, you are not alone.
Except I posted my trades real time and warned people how stretched the the silver price was over the 200dmva. Although I didnt sell at the exact top and took a hit, my account today passed what it was at the peak price of silver. And im still over 80% cash despite my puts soaring. So add me to whatever list you choose but im just trying to save beginners like you money. Mark my words, this will not bottom until the 200dmva is hit.
Silver making new lows…
Dan – nice trade on your silver puts!
Squeeze baby squeeze!!!
Tonight, the CME announced a doubling of margin requirements for oil even though WTI traded down to below 100.00 dollars today. The CME crooks used their same modus operandi on oil as they did silver.Harry Organ
Dan, maybe it’s just your obvious condescending delivery that gives you away. But then maybe not obvious to you.
I have silver ticking up slightly, and the dollar falling slightly. Nothing to write home about, certainly.
I think Dan is a helpful presence here, BTW. If the tone were a little less patronizing, that might help the message go down. That is, assuming he wants to be helpful, as opposed to just spiking the football.
Keep in mind that a lot of folks here are flat or in gold at this point. Not a lot of people left who are all-in on AGQ. So perhaps the gloating should be a little more muted.
Dan: You may have a secondary motive of trying to help (maybe) but mostly you are trying to puff up your own ego by cutting other people down. If you showed some compassion for the losses experienced here I might believe you, but your tone makes clear you are trying to show you are superior. Wow, you’re my hero. Better now?
No one on this blog ever minds an alternative position. People seem to mind arrogance and ego-strutting. Imagine that. Weird, huh?
What to say about the gold chart..A lot of people are looking at silver but gold doesnt look that bad.
Dont want to say anything about silver. :-/
Oil was ready for a cycle low, also the stockmarket. Then margin hikes in silver. All this was maybe to much and the cycle low in silver went out of control. Gold doesnt look that bad actually..
I’m hearing that margin reqmts on silver are going up again Monday.
I am still in agq. I got home to a 20% loss after all the markets were closed. What now? Wait or get out at a loss tomorrow. It kind of feels like shutting the barn door after the horse got out. I know that in the future I have to have a stop in place. I thought I had learned that lesson last summer but evidently not.
If you look at earlier correction in gold we touched the 50Dma a lot of times..We havent done that this time.
I would see what tomorrow brings. We should have a rally for a few days, even if it’s a dead-cat bounce.
You could sell that rally and move the funds into cash, gold, miners, or whatever combination suits you.
Gary told us that oil could go to 100. Gold to 1480 and silver to 38.
Oki yesterday was really bad but if we start moving around now and the dollar moved down again this will be very interesting. We might not get to 50 in silver but there will be a massive rally and we can at least get some money back.
My view – gold will come down from here.
A feel for you guys. It’s been a tough week for everyone.
Hang in there. This will eventually end. imo, very soon. I still believe with Gary that this C Wave is not done until I see confirmation. But you will need capital to take advantage of that. I’m still up thanks to Gary. I already trimmed off my leverage. But the red on my account is painful.
Alex, thanks for the chart. Feel alot better.
Nice reaction off the intermediate gold bottom channel. (Gold’s pattern is almost identical to what silver was doing…Gold is just a step behind. I would imagine from here a tag of 1/2 to 3/4 of the gold sell off. From there, that’s where silver plunged on it’s chart. Something to watch.
It would make sense that gold would be next after silver, oil.
These are the big three people watch and trade.
Politically, they can’t extend QE2 with soaring commods. They need to keep up the program without the spiking oil, gold and silver flashing “WARNING”.
Jesse had an interesting post on what might be going down on silver.
I’m mainly in gold, it’s limited the downside. I say we print a cycle low and recapture these paper losses. We get a chance to sit back and think the market without the panic and hysteria. Despite the doom and gloom this will rally, IMO. What happens after that we will have to plan for in the near future.
That’s my take. Others are free to post theirs 🙂
meant to say…It would make sense if they starting hiking margin on gold next after silver, oil.
You don’t have to get that money back in silver. You can do it in an asset where the psychology isn’t broken.
Remember, hope is not an investment strategy. You will get the money back, as long as you are patient and exercise good discipline.
Ask yourself: would you buy silver today, after looking at a chart? You’d probably wait to see it settle down first. Simply holding on in the hope of a monster rally that makes you whole is trading based on emotion, not reason.
Once again, for people who are following Gary advice, do you not find it worrysome that Gary did not mention him selling all of the AGQ positions in the morning report?
How would you know he sold it?
I am astonished that noone cares about it..it was the largest position he held …
I agree with SB and Poly. We will get a sharp rally out of this and then see. How’s the volume in it? Are the miners lagging after the first day or two? Is there a pullback that gets bought or panic again right away? Etc. I am not convinced that gary is wrong. IIf this were a D wave i think gold would be down a lot more. Let’s see what the dollar does and how the rally looks.
I apologize if I offended people as it is not my intention. I get emotional about these things as I have been through these parabolic crashes and I have been burned severely before. I try to get my points across to people as it all seems so obvious to me but when I see people going full speed ahead in the other direction I am in utter shock because it appears the only reason they are doing it is cause one guy is telling them to do so. Biggest and most expensive lesson I ever learned is never to rely on one source and always search out counter arguments to what you are doing with your investments. Its the only way to keep yourself and your emotions in check.
I haven’t posted before, but felt compelled to (possibly because it is cathartic to me).
I am hurting like so many on this blog. I am disgusted, with myself, not Gary. I have lost all the gains that were so painstakingly made this year.
I started tracking the SMT portfolio when Gary made is second “all in” call in mid-February. I didn’t go all in because of baggage and fear from past losses. I wish I would have! The SMT portfolio that Gary put in place in February had more than doubled (105%)as of just last week. Even today, with all the carnage of the last four trading days, it is still up 19% since that mid-Feb call. Not alot of investments that can boast those kind of returns in that time frame.
We all are experiencing different levels of pain depending on when we started following Gary and our own investment timing.
Have I learned something. Absolutely. I understand greed, paralysis, and fear much better than I ever have.
But I have also been exposed to the powerful potential that this market sector can deliver.
I can think of many things that I could have done differently (all with the benefit of hindsight).
I sit here tonight with a sense of defeat, but also with a sense of hope that we can do it again.
Gary, help us to put our defeat behind us and regain the confidence that we need to win in the end.
For what it’s worth, I think you saved a lot of people money yesterday and today. There is definitely a groupthink mentality that takes hold, and someone had to say what you said, if only to get people to consider the vast downside that had opened up, and that people were choosing to ignore.
David & Dan – well said
Thanks you said it so well for me. All my paper gains evaporated and then some. But it’s so clear to me that following Gary is my best hope of crawling back.
I’m hearing Germany is trying to push Portugal to sell it’s gold reserves (circa $21bn). Wonder who else is selling…
I and others dont follow Gary’s plan exactly. I use him as a guide for cycle analysis and I make my own decision when to buy and sell.
If Gary’s wrong on his analysis, I don’t blame him either. No one is going to get all the trades right. But what I do know is that I made alot of money since last year. Gary has been more often right than wrong. Even after this bloodbath, I am still up decently.
@Driven, I hear ya. I’m sure many are waiting for tonight’s report to find out more.
No responses to previous questions..strange..if you follow Gary advice and he sold largest position but did not indicated it anywhere in the reports …are you not curious why you do not know about it?
(In more gental manner then it sounds))If none of you care about it, why are you on the Gary’s blog?
P.S. I have full cash position, ready to go in…just not sure why i did not know about Gary selling his largest position..
I thought Ashraf Laidi had some interesting words in his Intraday market thoughts.
“As the dust settles on todays volatility, the focus will shift to central banks, as it always does. Markets are coming to the conclusion that: a) Growth is a bigger problem than inflation b) Central banks of the world will remain dovish ad infinitum.
If we separate the day-to-day noise from the underlying story, the losers are any central bank where any measure of tightening is priced in; the winners are JPY, CHF and gold. This is a story that has the potential to explode in the coming week; especially if tomorrows NFP report is soft. The market is pricing in a number close to 160K (about 20K below the economist consensus) but if we see a reading below 100K, the market will be overwhelmed by talk of QE3. Although the initial reaction for a soft NFP reading will be risk aversion (USD higher except vs. JPY/CHF), this may only be a one-day trade. After the knee jerk reaction, the dollar will resume its decline, especially against gold.”
I’m not aware that he sold his position – he publishes all trades in real time.
His update gave people an alternate strategy today if they couldn’t take the heat in the kitchen.
Am I missing something?
Gary said, in this thread at 10:48 am, that he sold his AGQ. What’s the mystery?
CMT – I did not see that earlier.
Thank you and Driven for pointing that out.
I welcome your posts, and hope you continue to do so. However, do it at all times in real time, not just when you are right and feel validated.
Gary’s post today was not in the morning, it was in the afternoon. He sold his AGQ probably after he wrote the post. He clearly said so in the blog comments here. Absolutely no reason to doubt his statements about his actions.
Well, Gary chose and executed the alternate strategy himself.
Larry, apologies, my response wasn’t meant to be as snippy as it reads (to me now). I just saw several people questioning it and knew it had been answered before by DG.
Nerves still a bit raw after today and giving up a good chunk of my gains this week.
No shortage of fun 🙂
Let’s not forget it’s just a trade, learn from them. Thousands more trades will follow, some you win some you lose.
Good night all.
no worries CMT – been a rough week
YesLetsDiscuss, show me in his morning report, where it clearly states, that Gary will sell his full position today…I bet you can not find it..but he did sell…and his subscribers including me are unaware of it based on the main report that we read..
new premium content posted
CMT and others…we the subscribers depend on his reporting and it is not in a report…what else will we miss?
It is fact that Gary sold his AGQ position. I too, however, would have like it to be posted in billboard fashion.
You have to understand that Gary’s advice is just that… advice. More than most newsletter’s, he give his opinion – sometimes it’s a conviction. Gary tries to let you make your own decisions. He is very confident in his analysis, and I for one, appreciate this fact. Now… if you were a Doc subscriber, you would see the difference. Doc will give you a technical perspective on both sides of a trade without any real targets. Doc is highly skilled at his analysis, but for the most part, leaves his opinions at the door.
I appreciate Gary’s style, because he gives it to you straight… as he see it. There is no wishy-washy answers and you choose to follow him or not. It’s your choice.
Gary post many things on the blog and assumes his readers are following both sites. If you are not; well, you are missing out on the full SMT experience. He called it an alternative for a reason…
@Aaron, I’m still hangin’ as well, but the dollar should tell all tomorrow.
Thats a deal although my trading is no mystery, I simply play the historical patterns with stops and use trend lines for short term trading. I will start to buy in once we hit the 200dmva and either (1) hold old turkey into the winter or (2) play trend lines and buy in and out. By late summer I will apply leverage and by winter we should be at the highs again although I dont think this year will see big new highs…atleast not in silver. The next massive “C-wave” move as Gary calls it probably wont happen till next year.
Gary, if you would be a new subscriber, would you expect Gary to post that he sold his largest position on the main subscriber board and not in response to another blogger on general and free blogger site?
is this dead cat bounce in gold/silver or the real deal
Ok, one more time…its not in his premium post from this afternoon (he did not post this moring). He simply stated it on this blog. Perhaps a misstep on his part that he did not post it there.
However, it is in his latest post. Check it out.
A NEW PREMIUM POST by Gary!
does this tell the real story behind collapse.
The fastest way to collapse a recent run up in prices is to choke off the ability of those with leveraged long paper positions to raise cash. Another way is to rapidly hike margins; those with insufficient ready cash will be forced to liquidate. As they liquidate to meet margin calls, prices fall, and it creates a cycle which feeds on itself. I have no explanation for the recent ramp up in silver prices any more than I have an idea of where spot silver prices eventually hit bottom.
YesLetsDiscuss …this is my last comment on this….I totally disagree the way this situation was handled…now I and many others not sure if we ever see staight up signal from him or should we continuiosly monitor 400 or some comments each day to find Gary’s sells/buys…
Well, I certainly feel lucky that I took the Gary’s call a few weeks ago about the scary correction. I sold at 40.75 and 42.91…then watched as Pm’s went higher, jumped back in with small position at 44, out at 46.50..then thought I was being smart buying at 41.90 the other day. Underwater on that position. I don’t have to sell, so we’ll see how things play out tomorrow and monday.
If this turns out to be a D wave, then we will have a buying opportunity that don’t come around often. If the C wave continues, then folks, the correction coming will be bigger than what you are watching this week.
I feel bad for those suffering losses. I know the feeling. it f*&king sucks. But pick yourself up, regroup, take smaller positions, less leverage if you want to trade PM’s. Remember the biggest and most powerful money on the planet wants you in anything but PM’s. The safest way is to buy physical and you will never be a victim of the Banksters crimes like you are witnessing this week. Every ounce is a punch in the face to the enemies of the people. it will take a lot of punches, but we will get there.
I have to agree with Driven on this – for a paying subscriber it should be posted as soon as possible to the premium site as a new post. That way it sends out the twitter/email updates to everyone.
gary has new post
Long 24% GDXJ, 16% QID, 10% DUG, 8% GLDXShort 7% SLV35% Cash
@dan…with all due respect, there is no way anyone could know when the parabal in silver was going to end. Clearly the commercial Silver shorts were in trouble, so much trouble that they needed the CME to step in and save their worthless asses. Saying you knew this was going back to the 200day MA doesn’t mean much. Shit I knew that months ago. I think we all knew that when the C wave was done the PM’s would crash down. Only this time, it was a manufactured crash. Unless you are a friend of the CME heads or Jamie DIEmond, or Llyod BlankSHIT, you had no idea this was coming.
Thanks, Jayhawk- great charts and great article from Jesse.
I value your thoughts and perspective. A bit rough around the edges sometime, but aren’t we all?
Anyone want to swap war wounds from the last few days to better ease the pain and help healing process?! LOL.
I started with $13K in the account…built it up to $133K since Jan low. Between Tuesday/Wednesday, I’ve lost $87K. Sitting at $40K right now. Not sure if I want to laugh or starting crying. Maybe a little bit of both.
I personally think we miss counted a cycle or the combination of rate hikes, Soros selling is what did us in. Hopefully I am wrong and gold/silver goes parabolic from here so I can short the crap out of them at the top.
Nitro I feel your pain. Lost 40% since Friday. Ouch!! Puking helps a little but not much. LOLI will have to work another year to make up the loss.
Sold most of my leverage/futures into this bounce… With regrets… I don’t mind losing paper profits but I don’t want to go below my starting balance at the start of the year….
Protecting capital was the name of the game now. Waiting to buy after the swing… Took huge risks & leverage with markets money… Market giveth, market taketh away… What a week..
Now I guess we can resume moving up 🙂
Your absolutely correct, I did not know when it was going to top out. I took notice when it went passed 1.66X 200dmva(the previous record) and when the dollar got 0.9X 200dmva and record sentiment readings but other than that, I had no idea. I kept selling bits as we went up but sold a lot of it with a loss on monday afternoon. However, I did buy puts as we kept going up and thats what saved me.
No one has a crystal ball but you can study historical patterns to improve your odds.
Great post by Gary tonight. Hopefully we can all take advantage of the coming bounce.
Another data point on the dollar.
A few weeks ago, in his nightly report Gary included a chart of UUP. He indicated that sharp increases in UUP volume is one ‘tell’ for future dollar strength. Not conclusive, but another data point.
I recreated the chart back then, and stumbled across it tonight. The data shows, as you might guess, sharply higher volume the past few days. It’s at the below link:
Off to bed. The next few days will be interesting.
Larry/Driven et al:
Gary tweeted about his alternate strategy at 1:27PM (Eastern). That post was up on the premium site. This is about the time he also posted on this board that he is following the alternate strategy.
What more do you expect? Do you want him to send orders to your broker?
Ouch! What a ride! Really sorry to hear that.
However, if you forget how high it went, 13k to 40k right now is much better than most people here, forget about rest of the trading world.
That is a good strategy. Something you bet, I will implement if I get a chance to do it again.
I’m curious about your term “dmva”. Most people just use “dma” or “sma” for the day moving average.
It’s been a day now since I got out and I do feel a little better. But what pisses me off is that I didn’t catch the slide down on silver. That would have been another +$100K in 4 days. 🙂 oh well, next time.
The majority of my holdings are AGQ and I’m down alot. I didn’t sell anything and won’t at this point until I hear we are definitely in a D-wave. I potentially have over 25 years before I’ll have to touch this money and I still believe the big picture has not changed one bit regarding our country’s debt problem. When our country gets that under control, then I’ll think about selling my silver and gold. Until then, this week is just a minor bump in the road to early(hopefully) retirement. Time to pop another beer.
I truly believe there is a special ring in hell for the banksters. And man are they gonna sizzle when they hit the hot oil.
Casey: I am in your boat! Totally agree!
Can you clarify what you mean when you say you didn’t catch the slide down?
Were you thinking about just going from long to short or buying puts?
By the way, I went to and 4X down to 2X now. But been something I will always be aware of.
Thanks for sharing your story.
@ Dan..I too sold on the way up and then kept regretting as it continued higher…I am overall up for the year and up huge since starting with gary 3 years ago. I think I will wait to sell my underwater position after we see friday/monday..it could be a bigger loss or maybe we get a bounce and i get out even, or we blast off to finish this C wave. Who knows. All I know for sure is I am putting 30% of all my profits from the last 3 years into physical at the D wave bottom.
Anyway, the key thing to take away is proper position size and risk control.
We are all in the same boat.
Driven,I posted the alternate strategy this morning to stop the pain. I chose to follow it also.
But what I do is kind of pointless. Everyone has to decide for themselves if they wanted to exit by how much pain they were willing to take.
I took as much as I was willing to take and at that point I decided it was better to just wait for a swing before doing anything else.
Let me say this again. What I do isn’t necessarily right for everyone. My circumstances are different than most people. My level of leverage is probably unacceptable for 99% of subscribers. Also I can lose a big chunk of my portfolio and it wouldn’t affect my lifestyle.
Most people can’t say that and if they can’t say that then they have no business copying exactly what I do.
I gave everyone a reasonable option this morning. It’s up to you to decide if you want to change course.
I love the condescending tone aviat…
No don’t need to him to send an order to my broker. But I would like him to say in his alternate strategy… that he posts… that he is doing that… it’s written like it’s for other people and he’s not doing that. Why call it an alternate strategy if that is what he is primarily doing?
Expecting us to roll through 400 posts to find confirmation to a premium post is… I don’t know… silly?
I don’t feel like I’m being unreasonable here…
And honestly, it wouldn’t of changed my decision to hold. I just wanted to agree with Driven that I think he should of clearly stated that in the same post premium post.
You can pick on Driven if you want to, but Gary says over and over that he makes his trades known in real time. Another time he didn’t, and I and a few others chided him, and he said he’d do better in the future. With 500-1000 message to wade through each day, it’s not reasonable to expect somebody to ferret out his comment (which I happened to spot). He’s also been inconsistent of late with his current position data on the nightly updates and people have often asked for that information.
Today I know he was traveling and it might have been a time bind (this week’s been a blur — that was today, right?).
In the time it takes to post here, however, he probably can post a quick update to the board. He’s posted many alternatives before, the vast majority of which he’s had no intention of following. It is a change of premium site quality in my view if something like punting 50%? of one’s holdings during a market plummet is not clearly conveyed to the subscribers. I saw it, but why not be consistent with trades and report them so we know that he actually takes the decline very seriously versus giving weak-kneed people a convenient pressure valve?
Happy to hear you’re still alive nitro… Luckily you got out at the right time…
My plan was to short metals for the D wave. If this turned out to be the D wave, I missed a good chunk already since I sold at the top that Sunday night when it popped to $49.75.
There are risks to both sides of selling too early or holding on too late. I too sold too early and missed a good chunk of the silver move. I was furious at myself because there was no pull back to get back in. Fortunately I was able to sell my leftover tiny core near the top.
Then the pull back came and I was eager to jump back in. Waited for weeks and caught that falling knife on down.
Can anyone tell me how to get emails when Gary posts to the premium site?I looked in subscription, profile, etc….no boxes to check?
This silver crash is now ranking up there with the 1980 Hunt Brother collapse.
I set up twitter to email me when gary tweets. Works great.
Hits to the blog today: 21,000
Got to be close to a bottom. That’s almost double any other day except this week.
I have to jump in here and say that only when a blogger had asked Gary this morning if he had sold his AGQ position, Gary responded that indeed, he had.
It was a post solicited by another blogger, which I was lucky enough to catch in real time. I can understand those SMT Premium members who wanted a post to the premium site.
Gary, I understand your point…however I also guarantee you that 90% of your subscribers did not know you sold your largest position today, as it was not indicated anywhere on alternate post and we, as subscribers, do want to know about it..
I am a newbe and would like to know in regards to AGQ is it possible to hold on to it until sometime in the future with the thought that it will recover up to a level to decrease some of the lossincurred or will it erode to the point of no value.I appreciate the input received from this blog and the premium site.you don’t need to point out that I am clueless as I have already discovered that on my own. lol
C’mon…this service that Gary provides is not an absolute timing service. He is good about what he does. He explains why he does things.
When its an alternate strategy, its up to us more than ever.
Captain-Levered ETFs are short term, directional trading vehicles only 🙂
Something just ocurred to me that I haven`t thought about in a long time. I remember hearing a while back that the goal was not the money but to trade well. If we trade well, the money will take care of itself. I see that in the best traders here. And it`s inspiring to watch those who move easily and flow with conditions and adapt. And they trade well. And thank you for sharing that with the rest of us. Some of the best lessons are easily forgotten.
Sorry to hear about everyone losing some money. I have not been in any of the metals for some time. I bought a couple of AGQ puts here and there and made a little money (surprisingly didn’t lose anything), but not the 1000%+ money made by some in the last week (or ZSL calls or SLV puts). It was just like the SKF trade in March 2009 all over again! Oh well.Indeed, it is all about the dollar right now. I follow DeMark analysis, and the DXY did not hit 72.5 yet to satisfy a MONTHLY sequential 13 BUY signal, good for 1 year after it records. So, probabilities lie for one more leg down in the dollar. Given the parabola that silver was in and how many people got burned, I’m inclined to say we won’t get $50 silver again even if the dollar “collapses” below 72.5. But that’s just my opinion, and just like an anus, everyone has one 🙂
Some comforting comments from Trader Rog. He frequently appears on Kitco comments: http://www.kereport.com/2011/05/05/2279/
You cant hold AGQ through a drought. The ETF is only made to work going up. There is a major decay factor when the price of silver goes down. I have not read this article yet but it explains it.
I held until i figured this out. I am selling all of my AGQ positions tomorrow morning regardless of what PM’s are doing.
YEAH…..Gold up 16 and Silver up 90 cents..were rocking here boys and girls…
just trying to bring back the good ol days…last week…
Oh boy- what a week! lots of war wounds but I will fight another day.
The BIGGEST headache is that family member or brother in law that one may have dragged into this – and he came in late on silver (once they started beleiving…)
Had to triage him out (with some ZSLs etc) to minimize losses.
But the blowback from other family members……will be a tough Thanksgiving.
Larry, Ben et. al:
For the last time. Gary made a new post on the premium site AND tweeted about it. You did not have to come to the message board to know that Gary has another strategy in place. So I am not getting the angst.
Are you upset that he explicitly did not say that he is going to follow the alternate strategy? In that case you are in the wrong place. Gary is not an investment advisor and it would be illegal for him to give explicit investment advice.
He is nice enough to share his perspective, real-time via twitter when the need arises. He did not have to do anything but announce in the nightly letter that he decided to sell AGQ once the 1492 prior swing low was taken out.
The carnage in commodities was there to see. Crude was down $10 and they actually changed the limit down rules real-time and allowed trading to continue! They are raising margins on all commodities.
There are many posters here who have posted alternative investment strategies including scaling out, using options spreads etc. which follows Gary’s logic and analysis, but execute the trade using a tolerance level consistent with their objectives. You guys ought to take responsibility for your own trades; stop nitpicking. Would you be complaining if AGQ had gone to 500 today and Gary sold at that level?
My $USD chart shows that we topped right at the ’09 low. To me that means good resistance to an additional rise from here.
Nice post, Gary. Thanks for keeping a level head and being objective throughout this turmoil. Much appreciated.
BTW anyone watching the price action in GC? They are absorbing a huge chunk at 1490. It is the dividing line between the two high volume areas from today and also the 50% retrace of the last swing down. Also the 23% retracement of the last fall. So far the retracements of this o/n waves have been 23% and we have a P shaped profile indicating shot covering but heavy offers at 1490. We just might see 1505 if the stars are aligned. If we gap up tomorrow by 20 handles a lot of the late to the party shorts will be scrambling to cover into the weeekend.
Gary, I hope you had a nice trip and some good climbs, but sure glad you are back home now. 🙂Thanks for keeping up with updates while away.
Beksachi, You will still have time to make it up to them. At least that is what I am hoping.
callmeat, thanks for that post to the audio show.
I think i am going to read the book on options tonight.I made a ton of profit on AGQ on its way to a little over 40 and got scared. Then i watched it go through the roof and kicked myself the the entire time. I really should have held. I learned that these things don’t drop over night. They drop in 4 days:)
Long story short i got greedy and bet the farm at 47.80 again and they won’t even give me the shed now. Luckily the fianc’ee still wants to get married next year….
I am thinking of taking the money that i can spare in 10-20G increments in options seems safer than going all in on ETFs (at certain times)
Any opinions or experiences on this method when the timing is close to right?
Aviat, Gary has said many times that he posts his trades in real time. Don’t yell at me for thinking he is doing that. If the policy going forward is that his trading timing is a mystery, that’s cool; just say it up front versus what has been said in the past. That you don’t care if he does what he says he does is irrelevant to me.
Exactly WHAT I do with that information is, as always, up to me. It isn’t exactly difficult for him to be consistent, you know.
No, it (leveraged etfs like AGQ) should be a one way investment. Only in the up direction. In a downturn or sideways action the losses are a lot more than double the return of the underlying.
I know you have been derided at times by even the best posters for posting Demark analysis. Forget them, and please continue to do so….and keep adding your interpretations of it. Many here, including me appreciate it.
I don’t think for a second the dollar will just bounce from here.
With QEI and QEII how is that possible?
Yes Ben announced the ending of QEII. So what? It still doesn’t change the fact the impact QEI and QEII had on the dollar.
This reminds me back in 08′ regarding the announcement of TARP. Congress passed TARP but the markets continued its slide months after TARP was passed.
I expect the dollar either to start creeping lower or reverse violently, then ultimately breaking the 08′ low.
A potential strategy for those in silver or AGQ.
I noticed the 90 MA caught the January sell off. Assuming we have a short term low in, one could wait until silver gets back to the 50% Fib or right around the falling 10 & 20 MA’s which had held up both intermediate cycles (Fall and this Spring) until this week.
At that point, you could switch over to gold if things are looking healthy, or just go to cash and wait for break outs or break downs.
We need to get a game play in place for future cycles.
I was thinking something along the lines of-
1. Play miners, silver to start intermediate cycles.
2. As daily cycles mature (even towards halfway points) sell miners, scale into gold…sell silver and convert to gold for daily cycle top zones. This way,”runaway” moves are not worried about as we can catch the gold move at least.
3. As daily cycle bottoms, go back to miners, silver and primary core holdings.
Repeat as necessary.
4. Towards end of intermediate cycle…move to all gold investments. Buy small put protection on silver or miners.
I know there are other complex hedging strategies, and those are other options.
Just wanted everyone’s feedback…Let’s not let this happen again.
The dollar will bounce when it runs out of sellers. Keep an open mind. Let price action speak, not biases. With so many shorts to unwind< it will have a sustained rally eventually. Perhaps its already begun.f
Here’s a good update from Pater T. (Heinz Blasnik) about today’s market action and some perspective and thoughts going forward. He has a very long track record, he’s not a market timer but extremely knowledgeable about the sector for many years:
@ Jay…any emails from your friend?
Agreed- I am very confident we will make lots of $ again with the upcoming D wave…but the family/in laws were using their retirement acct which renders “options” unavailable….rate of return may be limited.
But no worries, I’m planning to use this week’s learning and Gary/this Forum to make so much $ that I’ll cover their losses and more – I will have a spot at the table!
He and I talked…Pretty somber. In the past, the emotion was real and irritable (with some tongue in cheek…he and I are big believers in the macro story so deep down we moan and complain, but have faith that things will work for the investments).
This week is going to crush a lot of silver bugs for good I predict. He’s hanging on to his physical, but only by a thread.
By the way, I just added some gold and silver futures a few minutes ago with tight stops. Very small position. (I know…perhaps I am a sucker for punishments).
I like the risk/reward ratio here. If they go up significantly, I will probably sell before the morning session. If they go lower, I sell as well. The ideal scenario would be an open tomorrow slightly below or above yesterday’s close.
From Jesse’s web site. Quoting WSB
CME Margin Hike won’t matter, The CRIMEX Clowns got stuffed yesterday wrs – Wed, May 4, 2011 – 08:48 PM
I think I know what happened. I kept thinking that if OI increased on the kind of price drop we saw yesterday, then longs didn’t capitulate because if they did, OI would have shrunk.
Here is what I think happened, the Commercials have been decreasing their net short in this latest run up, in other words, they helped it go up by covering short and going long. I believe they were doing that to accentuate the rise and to be able to liquidate their profits and accentuate the drop and cover short when the spec longs gave up. They wanted silver to look parabolic and then fail in order to scare everyone off.
Well it looks like the large specs have held tight, the COT report on Friday should show that the large long specs increased longs and are more net long while the commercials are more net short. Yesterday it was the commercials selling at a discount to the spec longs who just soaked up all the selling the commercials could do.
So today they raised margins again because I bet that the OI didn’t drop much today if they had to raise margins again.
This is setting up for a huge snap back rally if my conjecture is close to correct.
Okay, considering tonight’s post. How and where can a newbie learn about “puts”?
One more from Wall Street Bears
20 million ounces (625 tonnes) left SLV yesterday , 10 Tonnes have left GLD in two dayswrs – Wed, May 4, 2011 – 10:00 PM
The Silver in SLV is being removed as the big players that can, are taking delivery and running for the hills with it.
Same thing appears to be happening in GLD. 10 tonnes is 320,000 ounces.
This might be where some of the silver deliveries are coming from, instead of COMEX silver, they are being paid in SLV shares.
Been out all dayWhat a day to miss
I will bail out in the am, preserve capital and down 6% on the year could be worse
I hope I have learned as a 50% hit in a few days is a big lesson
No whinging here though just got to be smarter next time
good job and congrats to those who played it smart
You are assuming something big here…that silver and/or miners will lead the way in the next bullish cycles. They may, but no one knows that yet. And if you read my posts, you will see that I am going to differ from Gary about gold leading and determining the cycles. My approach is to determine the leading element of the PM complex and use it to gauge the cycle extent.
Your strategy to rotate funds is a good one. However, you can’t know which one’s to rotate from and into until at least the first daily cycle execution.
Been lurking here for a while. Moved from AGQ to UGL and gdx at silver $49.25
Hard for me to believe Gold is going to D-wave back to August 2010 prices with all that has happened since then. That would put gold potentially on track to have one of its worst y-o-y in 2011.
Self fulfilling prophecy on silver anyone? The internet put silver up on the big stage. Then the internet ran and hid under the bed; turning a correction into a rout. What did some of the top PM bloggers do… Mish went negative. Eric Jansen Negative. Jessecafe went neutral. Trader Dan went from cautiously negative to negative to super negative. Goldprice.org went negative to super negative. Ben Davies went super negative. What did people think was going to happen?
Could the silver pop have snowballed into gold and oil, snowballed into commodities, snowballed into an extra bump to the dollar rally?
Personally I’m buying some gld calls tomorrow
Someone posted this link earlier:
and I found this just using google:
I’m all ears! 🙂
I’ve watched the last 3-4 intermediate cycles pretty intently. I do notice miners lead out normally and rocket higher during the mid points of dailies. They also get hammered extra hard towards the end of cycles.
We should all put our heads together. Next time we can do better.
As Gary has stated a bad jobs report should cause the dollar to go down, but just the opposite might happen. logically and rationally the Dollar should go down if the jobs report number is a bad one but what seems to have been happening of late is that whenever we get something that tends to reinforce the idea that the economy is not improving and growth is slowing, the hedge funds, instead of selling the Dollar end up buying it, the yen and the bonds. That is what is called risk aversion trade. It makes no sense but that is what they have been doing. Perhaps that will change at some point and the Dollar will move lower as one might expect. We’ll see in a few hours
i love how all these people i never seen before come here and post about how they went out of silver right at $49 and are buying gold now for a retrace. Holds very little credibility and frankly take up space on an already crowded blog.
Bob loves Hawaii,
Thanks for that post. Its such an interesting dynamic…it does make sense this time. Although sometimes, I think an interpretation is forced from a limited knowledge.
“i love how all these people i never seen before come here and post about how they went out of silver right at $49 and are buying gold now for a retrace. Holds very little credibility and frankly take up space on an already crowded blog. “
Yeah, we need to group-think, but in a different way than what we have been doing. We can’t assume all statements from Gary as the ultimate prophecy. We can make Gary’s cycles work in a better way. Need to determine how each component acts (gold, silver, miners) independently of each other and within the cycle theory.
If the next time is exactly like this time then yes we will all be prepared.
Unfortunately this time has never been before.
Let’s face it we all knew there was a decent chance of a daily cycle correction. What none of us knew or could have known ahead of time was how hard silver would get hit in such a short space of time.
If you think you can prepare for that all you will do is become so flighty that you will never be able to ride a full C-wave again.
And you will miss almost all of the final bubble phase.
I faced the fact a long time ago that every once in a while the market was just going to catch me and there is nothing I can do to avoid it. This was one of those times.
Btw, yes, let’s continue to discuss 🙂
Gary, will you discuss recommendations for those of us that can’t do puts, calls, etc., when the time comes?
Dan, Your observations are cool with me. I guess it is natural if you are right to brag a little. I posted a monthly of silver that showed it peaking, but few liked it until after the fact. My friend Jay even had somebody else copy it!
I think this experience is going to enable traders like yourself, Alex, DG, SB and others to be able to help more here. This fact is really going to become important because Gary will most likely quit posting his portfolio if he continues to get heat about it.
This complaining happens at every low, but I can give nothing but thanks for how Gary has changed my thought process in regards to the markets.
@ Jay…If your friend has physical then he is fine. He owns it. unless he needs cash now, he will be make 5-10 times what he paid a few years from now.
send your friend this article
here’s a part of the article
“Silver is not in a bubble in terms of prices.
The bubble in stocks in 1929 was caused by debt financing.
The bubble in housing in 2007 was caused by debt financing.
You cannot borrow money to buy silver. Thus, silver is NOT in a bubble.
Exceptions: Yes, you can borrow money to speculate in silver, but no silver is ever purchased at the time that you purchase futures, or options on silver. And the futures market is known for having an overall open interest of over 800 million oz. of silver, while less than 40 million oz. of silver are available for delivery!
Yes, also certain private firms, who have horrible reputations in my opinion, will let you borrow money “to buy silver”, but you must keep the silver with them, and it’s doubtful that they ever actually purchase the real silver either.
In silver’s case, the availability of debt, and use of leverage is used to prevent you, distract you, dissuade you, from actually buying silver. This makes silver an “anti-bubble”; the opposite of a bubble………Again, silver is the opposite of a bubble.
People have not yet learned that silver is payment in full. Silver is not a promise to be paid. Owning a promise to be paid in silver is about as bad as owning paper dollars — the value of both of which has (primarily and fundamentally) only one way to go, which is down.
Government is in a bubble. US paper money is in a bubble. The US bond market remains in a bubble. …”
worth reading and taking into your thoughts
Elaine,There isn’t much I would suggest if you don’t know how to use put options. I don’t suggest shorting for the reasons I gave in tonight’s report.
With puts your potential gain can be huge and your risk is clearly defined when you buy the put.
I am not sure I am able to do puts in my IRA. That is the reason for asking.
Thank you for your answer.
People who made good calls start speaking up now, because now is the time the blog needs new input. The group think was broken with the big down day many of the regulars here had. I’m sure many many people actually did sell around $49, on a Friday, before breaching a record high.
Thanks, I’ll read it in the AM.
Sorry, I didn’t know you posted that one too. I had seen it on Doc’s blog posted by Mach. If you did post it, I may have seen it but told myself “this time is different!” I’m sure.
The support on that longer term channel is low 30’s FYI.
You still think I made a bad call selling DGP a few days back? I did load up on miners last week and have gotten crushed. HUI hit it’s 200 MA! today. Unreal. I figure it’s got to bounce soon.
Jim Sinclair and others keep saying that gold and silver, rightly understood, are currencies, not commodities.
And I believe the best way to describe the financial crisis we’re in is that the global currency system that was put in place in 1944 is collapsing, and will collapse over time. As a consequence, all fiat currencies are falling against gold and silver. Rightly understood, it’s not that gold and silver are skyrocketing in their giant bull market, it’s that all fiat currencies are crashing v. gold and silver.
Anyway, this is a long-winded way of saying, if we want to be better gold and silver traders, we should think of our selves as currency traders, and try to understand all the factors that go into currency movements. (Gary keeps stressing this by saying follow the dollar and its cycles.)
So, following one of the best currency experts in the world should help us become better gold and silver (currency) traders, right?
One of the best in the world is Ashraf Laidi. He has a great Web site which I don’t visit enough: http://www.ashraflaidi.com
I’d recommend checking out his “Intraday market thoughts” every day, as well as his articles and all the other great resources he has on his site.
Here’s one of his intraday market thoughts for today. PLEASE NOTICE PARAGRAPH 5 ESPECIALLY, where he says that a soft jobs report will probably cause a brief bounce in the dollar (because of risk aversion), but that the dollar would then probably resume its decline, especially against gold:
Intraday Market Thoughts
Commodities Routed, Central Bank Attitudes Shifting, RBA Stmt Next
May 5, 2011 18:02 ET : Broad worries about economic weakness combined with a rush to the exits in crowded trades like oil, silver and EUR led to a rodeo-like day of trading on Thursday. We explore emerging shifts in market sentiment and what it means for currencies and gold. Later, Japan returns from holiday and the RBA releases its quarterly assessment.
FOUR HEADLINES TRIGGERED bulk of the abrupt change in sentiment in the past two days: 1) very weak ISM services report 2) yesterdays comments from Rosengren/Williams 3) Trichets omission of vigilance. 4) an 8-month high in US initial jobless claims at 474K vs. 410K exp.
Behind the headlines, there are two stories: 1) Paper wars, position squeezing and speculative flows overwhelmed some resource markets. 2) Central bankers and markets are starting to see signs of economic weakness. These stories are obviously not mutually exclusive, but they collided today and created a wicked round of risk aversion. The euro was easily the laggard, losing nearly 300 pips against USD and JPY. Brent crude fell $10.39 in the largest one-day decline since Jan 18, 1991. Silver fell another 11% for a nearly 30% weekly decline. Gold fell $40 to $1475. The 19-commodity CRB index fell the most since Dec. 2008.
As the dust settles on todays volatility, the focus will shift to central banks, as it always does. Markets are coming to the conclusion that: a) Growth is a bigger problem than inflation b) Central banks of the world will remain dovish ad infinitum.
If we separate the day-to-day noise from the underlying story, the losers are any central bank where any measure of tightening is priced in; the winners are JPY, CHF and gold. This is a story that has the potential to explode in the coming week; especially if tomorrows NFP report is soft. The market is pricing in a number close to 160K (about 20K below the economist consensus) but if we see a reading below 100K, the market will be overwhelmed by talk of QE3. Although the initial reaction for a soft NFP reading will be risk aversion (USD higher except vs. JPY/CHF), this may only be a one-day trade. After the knee jerk reaction, the dollar will resume its decline, especially against gold. It will also continue declining against JPY but the risk of fx intervention is acute.
Japan officially returns from holiday on Friday but liquidity will be well-below normal with many traders extending the Golden Week holidays into the weekend. Pay particular attention to talk of intervention in USD/JPY from the Japanese Ministry of Finance with the pair is hovering around 80.00. The risk of actual intervention in a holiday week and ahead of NFP is minimal. The market, however, will be looking for hints of what the breaking point is. Also keep an eye on EUR/JPY as it threatens support at 115.99.
At 0130 GMT, the focus will shift to Australia as the RBA releases the QUARTERLY STATEMENT ON MONETARY POLICY. This should offer some valuable insight into how the central bank sees inflation pressures developing. In Tuesdays decision, the RBA continued to say that policy is mildly restrictive and that in the year ahead inflation will be close to target. They warned, however, that upward pressure on longer term inflation is coming. We will look for clarity on these points and suspect that the report may be more hawkish than the market is expecting. But even if it is, the upside for AUD is minor given the current climate and yesterdays weak retail sales data.
By AB – AshrafLaidi.com Staff
By the way, he has a relatively new book out entitled “Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis”, which looks very good. I haven’t had time to study it yet but chapter 1 is: “Gold and the Dollar” and chapter 2 is: “Oil Fundamentals in the Currency Market”.
Anyway, sorry for the long posts. I will check Ashraf’s reaction to tomorrow’s jobs report and post it here.
All the best,
Elaine, You should call your brokerage and ask. I have options with my Roth through Fidelity. You should be able to buy options with your IRA.
I face a similar situation- one of my accounts is retirement etc.
Experienced folks like DG have mentioned “EUO”- 2x times shorting of the EURO.
I plan to enter when DG gives the call out.
If one of the factors driving the D wave is US dollar going up, the EUO should do well.
I’ll let forum folks correct me.
Wav and Bek,
Thank you for your answers, I will contact my broker to find out.
Just submitted request to do options in savings acct…WOW I did not know that was possible!
Me and Mach are one in the same. Seems to me cash is king at the moment The big question is will there be 3 daily cycles in this run.
I really find it hard to believe the buck will not break the 08 low. Smarter people than me believe it has to happen now. In the back of my mind is another intermediate cycle in both PM’s and the buck. This would give the double top in silver and allow miners and gold to catch up. This would fit history. The reason for this is commodities usually top after stocks at the end of an economic expansion.
I really appreciate your charting, keep up the good work.
Gary,I am not one to say ya or nay…looking forward though, I think that this upset does merit some knowledge. We have so much to look forward to…and you are the man with so much to give! If this is a d-wave, so what!….the real money is made in the final c-wave anyways…can we please learn something from this…Ie know when to go all in and when to scale out….Only my thoughts! But I only trust one more c-wave drive before this thing is over…and I am expecting at the least a 10x from the bottom..3-5 years is not a long time……I really think we should be focused on the next drive, not this one….anyways what the f**ck do I know…I know I don’t give as much good info as the rest of the gang here, but this rally is dead….even if we surge…dead…..I am a patient guy…10x over 5 years sounds good to me…but then again what do I know!
What happens if we get a strong employment report? The birth/death adjustment is strong.
The ADP report is usually more bullish, but trying the think around this a bit.
What I mean here is that I would not at all be surprised to see triangles form on both the dollar and gold. The end result being a move up in gold, down in the buck to complete the cycle. Very hard to trade this though. We have seen the meat of the move IMO.
AHHHH! Cool, good to know Brian.
I asked “Mach” over there to post an updated chart but he blew me off. So I had TJ duplicate it over here so we could get a real time read on where things stood.
My gut was to dump those miners when they could not break out of that high level consolidation over Gary’s triangle. The break down was so severe and swift, I just looked at the charts in stunned silence. Hard to rival that kind of power and unrelenting 4 hour candles pummeling a position. I figure if we can weather this sell off, anything down the line will be a cake walk!
Thanks for your input and charts too.
Have a good night.
Thanks for the info.
The US cannot get out of its garbage. It does not matter what the report says, we already know…So we tank, the USD surges, and the bs about deflation starts again! And then QE3…and we restart.
Look facts are facts…The USA is a shithole dream…dead and gone…if you want to protect your family get used to the ups and downs on this butt blast the FED wants to give us…..
Sorry for the words, but I am pissed off that so may people need to lose so much while it is plain as silver what a f’ing beast the US gov is to its people…….!!!!!
Jay, I would not blow you off bro. That just meant I didn’t see your request. I have a job that keeps me away from the boards a lot. I was surprised how prescient that chart really turned out.
Silver Sell-Off or Harvest? We forget, there can be no sale without a buyer. Interesting article…
I’m still struggling with whether to sell my AGQ or wait for a few more days to see what happens. Bottom line, the pressures that pushed silver prices up are still there. Except the slight rebound of the dollar which will probably be short lived.
Any comments are welcome. Thanks in advance!
My recommendation – and what I am going to do – is to follow Gary.
If he says it looks like a D wave I will wait for his exit strategy.
Otherwise I will hang in there.
After a night sleep i think i have a clerer view of where i am today. My thoughts are..
If i completely forget about silver crash for a moment and just look at gold chart it’s not that bad. What worries me was the selloff past 1490 into the low, but today after a rise back to 1480 it seems like selling exhaustion candle.
Gold bounced off quite important supports at around 1470. If you put up Gold in EUR chart (i’m from europe so i look at it more often), it looks like just another week crawling up higher. Nothing special at all.
As far as emotions go i cleared out greed from yesterday. Greed that pushed me finding solutions how to catch a super quick ride back up to where my account was last week. I think this is irrational.
So now my plan.
IF this is D-wave. There’s plenty of opportunity to earn some money (forget how much i lost!, i take it as new profit making from scratch). IF this is D-wave, we can follow gold all the way back to below 1300. Think of that.
IF this is still C-wave, it means that you might as well wait for gold to go back up to 1550 and enter only after numerous confirmation that infact it was just a shakeout and earn big above 1550 to final blow-off top.
BUT not trying to gain back amazing profits. Alot of people here would need to do 100% profit in next daily cycle and that would be pure gambling. Let it go that you will probably not get back to last weeks account level and picture gets better.
Biggest danger i see now is buying into a fake bounce. Wait until picture clears. There’s no need to be invested all the time.
I think following days are FULL of opportunities because i dont believe we’ll just consolidate sideways after such a move. My plan is to wait and see today where it will turn on major supports from so many angles and put my money in that direction.
Also i will not trade silver from here on. It’s just too unpredictable for me. In fact all last week jumping multiple dollars daily felt more like a penny stock, not something i would like to have my money on.
This week was HUGE learning experience. Even if you’re under water since Jan, i think everyone should be thankful for such experience because you’ll learn from it, and if you actually do have objective perspecive on what caught you and are true to yourself, it probably saved your trading career 3, 5, 10 years from now when you’ll remember this week.
what a week. Also thanks to Gary and the great people of this SMT blog. What i learned here in the past year and past month especially is simply infinitelly valuable. This perhaps saved me from going broke 3, 5 maybe 10 years down the line!!
Trader’s reality check.
Thanks for your thoughts Sasa. If I had more of a strong hand status I would have been able to hold on a bit longer and see how it plays out but I had to preserve my capital. It hurt to see those big gains disappear in a matter of days but you’re right trying to chase it and get back to where my account was would probably destroy it. I’m going to be a lot more patient before I jump back in to see if it’s the c or d wave. I also will probably get into gold if the c wave continues.
The fundamentals for PMs are still intact, nothing has changed.
The silver crash was driven primarily by rate hikes, an unwinding of leverage, margin calls.
On a weekly chart gold appears to be in a pretty typical daily cycle correction.
Thus, if the fundamentals haven’t changed and if gold is completing a normal daily cycle correction, then deep pockets (China and other gold hoarding countries) step up soon and gobble up PMs at discount levels.
As more people realize the silver crash was mostly a policy-driven over-reaction, they pile back in (albeit with less leverage than earlier) and momentum-driven rally yields a retest of 50.
There is no free lunch everbody knows. So if there will come a parabolic move to the upside in silver only a handful of people will be in the boat. The discussion here now clearly supports this view. I only remember Gary´s statements week´s before this move where he decribed exact this situation. I (as a newbie) did not understand what he means when he said everbody will be paralyzed.
By the way I cannot subscribe via paypal. I login via Gary´s link to my account and then immeadiatley the process is always rejected by paypal?
As to next potential game plans, I agree that we might want to do something different. I am thinking a simpler approach: as we get near a daily low, switch out of the double into the single, and ride it down the cycle low. Gary is really good at calling bottom, even though you don’t need to catch it perfectly, but at that time you can go back to the double. And even though I kept telling myself this, I got rope into the emotions of the day: cycle analysis is the core of Gary’s trade, and it (mostly?) will happen!!!
This will not get the most gain, but maybe simple enough to follow, and minimize the loss if we are wrong? I would consider the miners to be in the same league with the double in terms of volatility, so out of the single miners into either the basket or straight metal, which ever one was the least volatile one.
Any comment? Thanks.
Silver Futures Still Falling
After a tough asian session, stocks are heading lower pulling commodities with them…
My bet is the dollar will push higher today.
Selling EUR/USD here
“I only remember Gary´s statements week´s before this move where he decribed exact this situation.”
If we were all only in gold. We would now start to contemplate whether this is D wave after yesterday’s move down. That would scare us to hell. That would be it.
What happened to silver was a crash. I think it crashed hard enough it might be a game changer to how silver reacts in the future.
If i came to the market just today. For the first time. I would approach silver only with ‘lottery play’ attitude and portfolio.
Also my thought on looking at previous C waves and finding clues how current one will act.
I guess right now that favourite is 2006 double silver top, while gold not correcting much 🙂
So far it seems that you’re the closest to prediction if you look at all of them and conclude that none of previous scenarios will re-play this time.
If you take that as starting point, what new possible scenarios do you see?
I think it will be very important in following weeks to do very very good risk management.
In hindsight it might seem stupid and lost profit in the end, but i guess we all learned something about greed.
Tryin to time blow-off tops of C waves with full leverage is not prudent no matter the potentially lost profit if everything went ok.
Blue Horseshoe loves silver
Phew! What a week.
I don’t see any reason to sell today. Gold has hit a strong support level, and will either consolidate here for a move higher or build a bear flag for another move lower. Eiter way, now is not the time to sell.
Silver could well drift lower as Gold consolidates, but I don’t see a lot more downside to this move.
I mean if Old Turkey Gary has sold out, then surely we must be out of sellers now?
Gary predicted everything that has happened, but underestimated the strength of the reversion to the mean on Silver. What should have been a profit-taking event was magnified by the margin hikes which turned it into a de-leveraging event. No-one could have forseen that.
The plan now is to lighten up on any bounce and see how this plays out.
What is interesting to note is how people are already crying off Silver. That is exactly what is supposed to happen. The market crushes your spirit to ensure that you miss out on the next move higher.
So you promise you will never invest in x2 Silver ETF’s again. And you watch from the sidelines, as SIlver rockets higher. And you wait for a pullback to get in. But it never comes, so eventually you jump in at higher prices, just as the smart money is exiting. Wash, rinse, repeat. It is how the banks make money from the 95% of retail traders that lose.
Someone has been buying all this silver on the way down, and it is exactly the same people that were shorting it on the way up.
Smart money has deep pockets and it never sells at a loss. Silver is going back up at some point, you can rely on that.
Whether it takes 2 weeks or 2 years, nobody knows. But smart money has no deadline or retirement plan. It just grinds away making endless profit.
The problem is that it’s not smartness that gives the short bullion banks the upper hand. It’s being in control of things like margin hikes.
They have certainly used them off and on during the previous stages of the bull market, but the effect has been foreseeable. A manageable dip and then the upward trend has resumed a few days later.
But this time, FIVE consecutive hikes in a few days! I’m sure you can mathematically model the effects of cascading forced sales, exacerbated by some helping hands from short selling banks.
In short, we (supposedly smart people, coached by an experienced trader like Gary), where fully prepared for a major correction. Instead we got an account obliterating slaughter.
Gold low is in, silver is a tad more damaged and will require a little more time to get going again, me thinks.
I have an alternative analysis of what just happened. Either one of two things has happened :
1) We had the worst correction possible, but Gary was still right and things will go completely bonkers soon
2) They just averted a dollar collapse. When I say “they”, I do not mean it in a conspiratorial way, I mean that market participants did what was in their best interest, and this happened to be the outcome.
If this was the three-year cycle low, it is now all hanging on one thing – US monetary policy. I do not think for one second that this can go on for another complete dollar-cycle. Basically, I think we are going to have a failed cycle in the dollar coming up, unless someone does something to stop it.
Even if the “inflation trade” was briefly halted, that does not mean that prices are going to stop increasing. There is already way too much money in the system, and I doubt the dollar can withstand more than a couple of more hikes by the ECB and other central banks.
So, if somehow the cycles did something no one expected at this time, and this is the D-wave, I think we have something even bigger coming up. If I were to guess, I would think that after a shortened D-A-B movement in gold, with the dollar climbing, we are then going to see a failed dollar cycle sending gold and silver into the stratosphere.
Obviously, this is just my personal take. But I do know one thing, and that is that the US dollar is toast very soon, unless someone does something to prop it up. Even if the EUR crashes temporarily due to the PIIGS situation – this is not euro-negative in the long run. As long as the ECB keeps tightening, and the euro-core remains – the euro is a stronger currency than the dollar.
So, lick your wounds, and try to stay alive a week or so to see which scenario plays out.
Best way to succeed: have a lover/close relative/etc who is a high ranker in one of these organisations and get the tip off.
It wouldn’t surprise me if these large financial entities collude with each other to get richer at the expense of the ‘ignorant’….. it’s human nature, I’m afraid [in an imperfect world].
I tend to agree with the idea that the intention is also just to get rid of the middle classes – so that in the new world it is easier to govern.
As I said before, I was apprehensive before May 1st [Illuminati start date] as these dates often have significance. It felt surreal to see that massive drop in silver in half an hour during the quiet wee hours [New Zealand trading] on Sunday 1st May!
I think that we’re at a very precarious point right now. Clearly there’s a confluence of hugely powerful financial and political undercurrents that are unfolding:
– Shift away from USD as reserve currency– End of western central bank PM suppression– Risk of enormeous leveraged commodity volatility– Potential resumption of global recession– Break-down of the Euro project– Potential breakdown of EU itself– Uncertainty of political future in the Middle East– Realization that peak oil may be for real
I could go on but you get the picture.
I don’t believe in any Illuminati or other New World Order conspiracies (people aren’t that organized). But we have to realize that all the super wealthy and politically/financially powerful elites will fight with whatever weapons they have to stay on the top.
That’s why we small fry have to be careful about swimming in the financial maelstroms that will only increase in power in the unfolding crises. This isn’t just about gold and silver in isolation. Although arguably the safest assets, they can still be dragged down in a liquidity crisis.
So I for one will never again put my entire net worth at risk by using highly leveraged futures when such powers are at play. It’s like walking on 20 feet stilts during an earthquake – you will fall hard.
I’m just looking at a couple of things here
AGQ 120 SLV 26
AGQ 365 SLV 47
If AGQ gets close to 100 bucks I might just load up and turn the computer off for a long time
Good morning. Glad to be on the sidelines and regain some perspective. I do not have any answers yet so will most likely sit tight through the weekend unless I buy some physical today (likely, but not whole lot), as well as some PHYS which now trades at a slight discount.
The thing I find most disturbing is that “somebody” (those that dictate margin requirements) got rich off this collapse, and it had nothing to do with trading ability. More irritating to me is that the regulators are in bed with Bernanke, Washington, etc. Makes me wonder if they do this to other commodities just as effectively in the future, leaving those seeking protection no place to protect from a rotting dollar?
It also chases people into other paper assets like the dollar and stocks, which is where they need people to keep the ponzi alive.
My inclination is to buy some solid miners for the long haul, but I believe I’ll have plenty of time to do this if it’s what I decide. After all, the shorts will have to cover to realize profits.
Silver will get a bounce, but to rebuild momentum will take time and patience.
Well said. The game is definitely rigged but that can only work for so long, eventually the free market will win. No matter how much it’s suppressed.
Since this morning (in Europe), I’m out of everything on my trading accounts. Still have a batch of CEF in a retirement account and a bunch of physical that I won’t sell.
What is very uncomfortable is that there are quite a few bottom callers out there who project numbers around $27 for silver. In my view (which I know isn’t shared by all – and certainly not Gary) that gives the bullion banks a “mandate” to push the price all the way down there. And believe me, if they want they can. I think both small speculators and hedge tech funds are pretty battle scarred at this time.
The only potential hindrance would be if a glaring divergence between paper and physical price levels would develop.
Well silver is still heading south – my view is that silver will head to the 200MA around the $28 mark. However, I don’t trade predictions – I trade what I see.
Gold has bounced off the 200MA, but is now looking weak again. I’m not comfortable buying here.
Folks this blog is very pro-PM, which is fine, but maybe we’re all talking ourselves into the wrong story. I buy the PM story, but when the mkt proves us wrong (at least temporarily) shouldn;t we exit positions, preserve capital, and then get back in when the price action confirms our view?
Silver is in a down-trend.Gold is in a down-trend.
I can see no reason to be long PM here.
By the way, look at the chart pattern from the last 3 days (the standard Kitco 3 day chart). So far, it looks like it follows the same trajectory as the last two days.
I hope it won’t play out the same way, but my gut feeling is that it will.
Shalom asked my y’day to post posns:
I am short silver @ 42.30. 5/3/11. Still short, with trailing SL.I am short EUR/USD @ 1.4573 (trade put on this morning). Still short circa +70pips, with trailing SL.
Whats my motivation for posting? Well its not because I’m lucky on a couple of posns, I have my share of losses & missed trades too. Its simply this – I believe many on this blog are caught up in a (currently) incorrect self-reinforcing view. Namely hope and fear. With silver etc heading south, many don;t want to believe what the mkt is telling us. I’m playing the role of taking the other view, that the mkt will keep heading down until it heads up.
Please don;t try and catch a falling knife. Don’t average down.Please protect your capital.
At some point you’ll be proved right again – then you’ll have capital to put on the line and make all your money back AND MORE.
I wish you all the best.
Not exactly, Rich. I asked you to post your trade when you take them, not after a 30% move then come in blowing your own horn.
have you no confidence to post at the time of trade?
I was more or less trying to shut you up from gloating to people that need to regain balance, not here “I told you so” from somebody that didn’t even tell them so. 🙂
Based on the latest postings from Rich, my trusty troll detector says that he isn’t one.
No gloating, no mocking, just what’s actually the same type of advice you’d get from any half decent trend following trading book.
I don’t think that we can demand realtime trade information from anyone who happens to have a conflicting view of what’s unfolding.
Folks, we aren’t a religious sect here, right? So as long as the tone is civil and the arguments made in a sincere way, I think we’ll all learn more in the long run by allowing a free discussion.
Shalom – you are correct I never posted my silver trade in real time. I never even posted here at all until recently.
I DID post a short EUR/USD trade this morning in real time. This was based on the USD rising. This trade (& the silver) is now locked in to profit via trailing SL.
If my trades sound gloating, then not my intention. I’ll post losers as well if you like (they’re not so impressive). My motivation is as just described – to try and point out why many people might be short silver, long USD etc right now. Thus hopefully helping others here by giving a balanced picture.
anyone here still holding agq? yesterday was rather brutal, i’m going to ditch the rest of my agq at the open… right now i’m barely making money on agq right now… hopefully i can at least break even 🙁
Nice, open-minded approach to posters Jonas. Surely you can respect my opinion that Rich is a troll, no?
And as far as giving him credit for trend-following, where has he been for the last 9 months while trending up?
Silver went up close to 300% in that time, while it’s now pulled back 30%.
Which trend is the best to have ridden?
I respect everybody’s view Shalom. I may have missed some post since I don’t read them all, so you may base your judgment on something I haven’t seen.
Be that as it may, I don’t think that in order to express your opinion (in a civilized way) on the board you have to have a prior track record of post with documented trades.
@Shalom – lol. You’re perfectly entitled to call me a troll.
Where have I been while gold&silver trended up? The honest answer is insufficiently long (small long posns) – I didn’t catch the whole move. Yes I did berate myself as the mkt went up and up and wished I was long bigger size – but thats just my greed. I’m sure many here did better than I on the rise up.
I’m sure many will make big money again – but they won’t if they stay long and the PMs keeps falling.
Another Dollar data point:
Sentiment Trader posted a chart this morning that looked at all the instances (21) where the dollar had a 1 day rally of at least 1.25% while near a 52 week low.
There were no overwhelming trends that emerged, but the dollar was positive the next day 1/3 of the time, and 1 month later only 43% of the time. On average, however, it took 33 days before the dollar traded at another 52 week low.
If you don’t subscribe to sentiment trader you may want to consider it – every day they mine topical nuggets like this.
I noticed that you also using Mini Longs. What brooker are you using? I’m in Sweden too and using Avanza but are missing the alternative to buy options. How do you do?
for those of you who found out about the silver margin increases before the CME announced it, how did you find out? from friends in the industry?
Rich,It’s way too late in the daily cycle to stay short. Out is perfectly acceptable and I exited AGQ yesterday waiting for a swing before I want anything more to do with it.
If the D-wave has begun then there is big money to be made on the downside over the next two months and even bigger money to be made riding the A-wave.
But we will have a violent rally out of the cycle low. When that happens then one can position for further downside.
@Shalom – the 300% rise is better than the 30% fall no doubt. I never said otherwise.
However I remember oil at $147 and a friend (who worked in the industry) calling for $200-$300. The oil went to $40. ALL his profits on the trade (which were impressive) vanished.
I sincerely hope this doesn’t happen to people here.
I’m not wedded to my silver short – believe me, if silver reverses heavily I will be out – I have stops in the mkt.
@Gary – I think you’re probably right. To be honest your predictive/analytical ability is a LOT better than mine.
However, with respect, the mkt will tell me when to get out by taking out my trailing stops. I can’t break my rules and exit because I think the mkt will reverse.
Hey, another Swede! I was beginning to doubt that there were even another European on the board. 🙂
I trade the minilongs on Avanza as well. For options on US assets I use OptionsXpress, which has a presence in the Netherlands. No broker based in Sweden (to my knowledge offers that service). The big downside of that is of course that they don’t have any “Kapitalförsäkring”, so I had the pleasure of itemizing around 40 options trades with currency conversion and all for the tax statement.
What city are you in? I’m in Stockholm.
If you’re short, then you DO hope these longs sell. Come on, you’re talking your book.
That’s fine, but refrain from acting as if it’s for the love of others here.
Now, since I’m flat, I hope your short does work in case I want to buy again. 🙂
T J RAND
I like to have info like your post on past dollar occurrences , history on gold/silver facts etc…but who has time to look them ALL up??
So thanks for that post, thats one I hadnt thought of
Shalom, you can’t seriously believe that our board readers’ selling based on Rich’s advice will move the market?
It’s not like we have the audience of CNBC here.
Heading out for a very late lunch now – will try to catch up later.
No I don’t thin traders here affect prices much overall. Perhaps Rich does, though.
I’m in Jönköping and been doing my trading using a “kapitalförsäkring”, I think the correct word would be life insurance wrapper or something 🙂 Hugh benifit to do the trading tax free!
Yes I was looking for a way to trade options in the KFS, but maybe that is not possible?
Have you ny ideas of how well a Mini Short would work instead of a put in a D-wave?
@Shalom – I do affect prices. 5 of those lots on the mkt are mine! I am the butterfly flapping my wings and making hurricanes on the other side of the world. Or maybe I’m just a small time guy about to get whipsawed by the jobs report 🙂
Hi Urban and jonas. 🙂
Nice with some ala suedes in here.
Dollar just popped UP as did the PMs .. anyone have comments ?
Is anybody surprised.
Absolutely…and agreed, there is way too much data and too many articles to go through them all.
The bath I took this week has caused me to crank up my data sorting/sifting efforts. I want to figure out both what I missed and what may happen next. As I surface stuff that may be of interest, I’ll continue to post it.
TH .. i think the big tell whas the divergence in Miners with the metals. I saw the same thing last time in oil, and once again, didnt react to it. I was really hoping to have learned from that mistake.
Jobs report better than expected..why should that surprize us?…BUT unemployment still going up..???
As I posted last night, a surprise to the up side with 175,000 in birth death adjustments.
The lies keep on coming.
@Peter – I was betting on the dollar rising, EUR/USD whipsawed (which is common), my view is if dollar continues to rise, PMs will continue to fall.
I had read last night in a marketwatch article that a very strong number would be US dollar negative and may even reverse the recent commodity slide. They were expecting 175,000; the number was 244,000 with unemployment at 9%. That seems pretty strong to me. We’ll find out shortly if they knew what they were talking about.
wow i see that no one is believing in C wave parabolic move up anymore, even Gary
Aus $ up huge…the bounce is coming
For me to believe again I need to see the dollar roll over and make new lows, otherwise we have the three year cycle low in place and that move down into that low was what was driving this in the first place.
yes we do need one big “skål” after this week.
This week makes me feel sick!
Right now the dollar and pm’s are up. We’ll see how long that lasts.
Thanks Gary, by that we can take it that you no longer believe in the C-wave.
S&P futers up 10 after jobs reportDJIA up 100 nasdaq up 50
Maybe the miners can piggyback on an up mkt today
I also have Dollar up .15, Gold up $8+, Silver down .50
I am exhausted,already for Friday night happy hour!!! Next week is a new beginning:)
Sure I believe in the C-wave. But I also believe it might be over.
We will know shortly if the dollar continues to rally.
It seems to me that the manipulation in the silver market caused by the margin hikes has temporarily disabled the cycle analysis.
Today’s BLS of 244K is great… until you exclude the 62K from McDonalds hirings, and 175K from the Birth Death Adjustment, and end up with…. +7K jobs.
And yes, the “McDonalds” is to be included. Per Goldman:
McDonald’s Corporation said that it hired 62,000 people during an April 19 promotional event.
If the C-wave is over and 3 yr dollar lows are in
This is what I am looking for (rough estimate as usual) click chart to enlarge
Aus $ is a leading indicator today it seems, US$ top seems to be in now.
Thanks. I really meant to ask whether you believed that the c-wave was over not whether that there was a c-wave at all.
Fun,You really need to get this out of your head that markets are manipulated. Margin hikes are completely normal.
Cotton had 14 margin hikes.
We always knew the silver run would collapse at some point. I just thought I would see a C-wave top similar to every other C-wave top. I also thought printing trillions of dollars would drive the dollar to new all time lows.
Now maybe it still will. But if it doesn’t it does me no good to blame some mysterious cartel for my error in recognizing the top.
I like this action. Jobs comes in OK (in terms of expectations) dollar rallies and Gold along with it. That tells me the selling pressure has abated. It might also mean that a cycle low is forming.
Let’s see what today brings, I’m feeling a metals rally.
This site seems to have a finger on the pulse on the goings on in the COMEX
I read somewhere that the man who operates it has good experience and credibility.
Just like Makutaku and some others here… I’m holding onto my AGQ for the moment.
Pepper2009 said: “So if there will come a parabolic move to the upside in silver only a handful of people will be in the boat.”
Crazy talk or maybe not so crazy…
Dollar falling fast now; peaked at 74.448 and now 74.11.
dollar starting to drop, maybe C-wave may still be out there
Better post (for Shalom) that I was stopped out (for a profit) of my EUR/USD short as half-expected with the volatility post jobs numbers.
Here she comes………..
Folks there’s no need to get excited until the dollar breaks to new lows. If that happens then we have a dollar cycle that topped in one day and yest we will get our dollar crisis.
But until it makes a new low it is in jeopardy of having put in the three year cycle bottom.
AGQ lifting from its premarket low.
Gary,Don’t you agree that the silver slide was caused by the margin hikes? The margin hikes were designed to drop the silver market. That, in my mind, is manipulation.
You buying anything this morning based on this action?
Picked up AGQ at 175.75 in the pre-market…just couldn’t stop myself 😉
Have you been paying attention to the entire commodities space? They ALL crashed. Silver was up $20 in a few month, almost doubled, it fell further as a result.
If the dollar cycle fails then you will be adding back AGQ I presume?
There’s no way in hell the silver drop was caused by margin hikes. The slide was caused by gold dropping down into it’s cycle low and silver followed. It was severe because obviously silver was in a huge parabolic move and when the profit taking started at $50 longs started to get spooked and everyone started to take profits.
Nothing evil about that.
S&P futures up about 15. My charts say the next 100 points are up, into mid-June.
Now the manipulation may not have any lasting effect but it surely affected the markets on a temporary basis.
NO. I’m already invested to take advantage of any move in gold. Very cautious here.
Just wanted to say how much I enjoy this blog, commentary from Gary is great, some amazing calls and its an active little community.
Anyway I have only posted a couple of times before. I’m posting on this occasion because I read someone suggest that we may be looking at similar trading setup to 2006. I started digging up some 2006 articles and found some events eerily similar to today. I’ve written a blog post that may interest some here:
Ra,I will ride the rest of the move if there is one in gold at this point.
The better play is probably in silver because it got beat up so badly but just like everyone else I’m too shell shocked to take the trade.
Bought AGQ at 175.75 in the premarket. Just couldn’t resist.
Gary’s last post is spot on IMHO.
I agree with the concept of the cycle low but it also seems that multiple margin hikes exaggerated what was to be a moderate slide according to the cycle theory.
“…What city are you in? I’m in Stockholm….”Jonas and Urban, the poster calling himself HPX is also in Stockholm.
I often look at posters’ profiles to see where they’re from.
It’d be nice if more people gave some info, then there’s a feeling that we’re not just virtual people. 🙂
Seems like the jobs created was ineffective in keeping the unemployment rate from ticking up. Maybe that will cause the Fed to seek QE#3
I noticed that the previous highs of the dollar daily cycles all tagged the 35 dma.
If it fails at the 35dma, we may get the final leg of the c-wave after all.
Fun,There’s no way to determine that. When a parabola starts to collapse who’s to say who would or wouldn’t have sold and if a margin hike would have made the difference.
Oh . and Moneyman’s a Swede too, it seems.
I went all into cash last night so I could start today with a clean slate and not be wedded to my positions.
Should I get back in now or stay on the sidelines?
Opinions please …
GARY SAID..”I just thought I would see a C-wave top similar to every other C-wave top. I also thought printing trillions of dollars would drive the dollar to new all time lows.”
I agree–I too thought the top should have been more gap- gap- gap-exhaustion…so as for the charts I posted . They may double top…dollar does crash to new lows.
It has to be a flexible plan at this point. A weak or strong bounce may show us what the markets will do.
We don’t have a swing yet. Getting back in now is purely a guess that the selling is over.
Is’t possible? Do I detect the dollar falling? Has silver actually turned green this morning? I am still 30% HZU/AGQ at this point.. no, wait, after yesterday I am now only 25%..!
In the time it took me to figure that out, silver moved to $35!
This is either the start of the swing back into a new daily cycle or just an oversold rally. I believe it will be impressive either way today, big gains back.
silver up strong for last 45 minutes
Do you believe that nobody with deep pockets shorted ahead of the margin hikes that they knew were coming?
I don’t myself.
At this point all I need to do is focus on the dollar. We clearly have a cycle low in place. If it rolls over to make a lower low then we have another extreme left translated dollar cycle and gold will put in a normal C-wave top like every other as it goes parabolic when the dollar crash climaxes.
If it doesn’t make a new low soon then the odds are high the C-wave has topped.
@GottaHaveIt – I totally agree with Gary. Until the mkt confirms, it could go either way.
I’m short silver, and will undoubtedly have my trailing SL taken out at some point – when I look at the daily chart i think it will be soon, but when I look at the weekly i think the mkt could fall further. That’s why I’ll wait for the mkt to tell me.
YOu know how you hear something and it doesn’t make sense and then at some point it does? I have a friend I was in the business with who is a solid experienced trader. He is always scaling out of positions on a stiff run, certainly on a parabola. I have always been more of an all or nothing guy thinking “Look, it going up or it isn’t. I’m selling it all or none.” Well, his approach makes more sense. You don’t make as much but I feel like an ass losing as much profit as I have. For those concerned going forward, don’t expect Gary to change trading tactics, but some people here will post when their tactics are different . from his. Heed the alternative if you like. He is the best I have ever seen at cycles, but there are a number excellent traders/tacticians here. We’re gonna nail this thing next time! Make sure you have some capital!
There were margin hikes all the way up shorting in front of them was a great way to lose money. So no I don’t believe anyone shorted expecting the margin hikes to collapse the parabola.
markets remain a mystery to me… why does a better than expected jobs report cause the dollar to spike and then pullback. Seems like the dollar would go UP if jobs report looked good because that would imply QE3 won’t happen right away.
However, just looking at the wave pattern on the dollar, yesterday’s strong advance has the look of a classic impulse wave and it topped this morning on a spike up, so a pullback to 38 percent – 62 percent of that advance would be a normal pullback. If the trend on the dollar has indeed changed, once that pullback completes (probably take all of today and part or all of Monday to complete), then dollar would head higher.
Waiting is the hardest part.
What is the value on the dollar that must be breached to confirm a lower low?
It seemed clear that the intent of the margin hikes was to drive down the market so it seems that they did have some effect in that. Never-the-less, I’m not going to beat a dead horse. But one thing to learn from this massive slide is the need for a stop. That has been the thing I have been most uncomfortable with. There needs to be some kind of stop in place to guard against a parabola retrace. That seems logical. But knowing when to get back in becomes the next challenge.
If you like shot me an e-mail on [email protected].
Maybe we can benifit on some offline discussions from our pov.
DG,After this one I think I will change tactics 🙂
Of course scaling out could have begun at $30 and been done by $35.
I’m just going to write it down as a curveball I just wasn’t able to hit.
Is there a price on the dollar that if that price gets exceed, that would convince you that we have seen its 3 year cycle low?
I’m not suggesting anybody jump in, but after a 4 day slaughter and the level of short interest, a $2 dollar silver rally today is well within MY expectation.
BTW when I said “we” are gonna nail this next time I meant the SMT board. I believe the good traders as a group will get the right answer.
Also, dust yourself off. If the dollar does cave we need to be prepared to go back in in size (into gold at least). Gold hit its lower BB and the RSI got into the mid 20’s! A dollar cave-in here will give gold quite a run. Maybe a silver double top a la 2006?
I am confused, Are we now saying that the silver bull market is potentally over or just on hold?
I understand that depending on the dollar next move you say it could go either way BUT if the dollar gains strength are you saying that silver is done. 49 is the all time high and we will never see silver at 75, 100 or higher?
PC,The reason is what I said in last nights report. At some point big money is going to try to re-establish the trend in the dollar and gold.
That was a huge rally in the dollar yesterday. Perhaps they are ready to get back to trend now. If the three year cycle low still lies ahead of us then the dollar will go lower. If the trend has changed then the dollar will ultimately repelled attempts to get back on the trend.
So can some one explain to me (beyond cycles) why an above expectations job report leads to a lower $USD?? Still in leveraged silver etf and about to pull sell trigger this AM (before next down wave). But now kitco showing silver up?? Now I’m really ^%^%&^% up!
Blogger Farm Girl said…
S&P futures up about 15. My charts say the next 100 points are up, into mid-June.
May 6, 2011 6:04 AM
Do you ever post any of your charts?thx
E,This is just one ABCD cycle. We should have at least 2 maybe three more complete cycles before this secular bull is finished.
I have little doubt silver will be above $200 by 2017/18.
Gary, so lets have some plans in place for either $ scenario. If the dollar does roll over, should we re-establish our positions ? Also, at what levels do we feel this isnt a dead-cat and a real rally into a c wave blow off ?
Pima,Here is my thought on the jobs data. How can there be inflation if no one is working? Without jobs there is no spendable money to fuel demand which fuels inflation.
I am shellshocked with silver too – gave back almost 2/3 my profits from Jan.
Would prefer to ride gold. If everyone is thinking this, maybe gold might outperform silver 🙂
Gary: Fair enough. I have always felt that the game is asymmetrical. That is, you can wait for the perfect spot to enter, but once in you have to make a sale/no-sale decision every minute until you are out. Not fair!
But , silver didn’t really start looking parabolic until $44. Getting out “early” there looks pretty good right now! What I fault myself for is that the first break and then recovery is a typical pattern. That is, we had been zooming, then there was a bad break on 4/26. That was a warning that money was starting to run out (this approach only works during a baby parabola or better) That’s why I switched 1/2 on the run near 50; the warning shot had been fired. The break in early April was too early and we had not started a strong enough run for it to matter. My take at least. Run, break, new high is a typical topping pattern. Switching just takes something off the table (and was frankly a great idea of yours).
you are wondering why the USD is falling when the jobs report is good.
sounds counter-intuitive (fed won’t have to print as much, shows strong sovereign economy so currency should be strong)
the bigger point that eclipses the above is that the USD is the largest “risk off” bet.
since jobs market is doing well, “risk on” bitchez!
hence, get out of safe trade, which would be the dollar.
I am still all in, having suffered incredible loss this week. I would appreciate having plans in place for those of us who were unable to get out.
I sold all my miners yesterday but still have 50% of my capital in DGP. I’m thinking of selling this AM, but kept hearing that I should at least wait for a Bear Flag bounce. I’m not an expert in TA but know that means a few up day with light volume. I don’t seem to be able to see volume on Gold itself. So should I look at GLD instead, and if yes, what is consider light volume? <50% of the volume from previous down days? Thanks
If you meant just this C-Wave of the silver bull…its kind of 50/50 right now.
may have topped, & may just bounce
may go higher to new high. Watching the dollar here.
“shows strong sovereign economy so currency should be strong”
Those numbers are not strong, forget the CNBC spin, the market knows such slow growth spells trouble for the buck.
That article you posted was worth reading…I have read a couple of his in the past and he is pretty in tune with things. I TOTALLY agree with his comments on ‘AG’
DG,All that is true and I myself was pretty sure silver would not get above $50 on the first try. But every bit of historical precedence said that the C-wave wasn’t over and it was late enough in the daily cycle that the correction should be brief.
So armed with historical precedent the correct move would be to ride out what should have been just a mild corrective move before further upside.
What none of us could have possibly seen was the extent of the damage that would be inflicted in less than a week.
No if I could only answer my bigger question…since I’m still in do I wait or bail? But then I guess that’s why stop loss orders were invented 🙂
thanks, funmike. Makes sense.
Silver off to the races, took a really big chunk of AGQ @$184 as a DAY TRADE and will ride it as far as it goes today. Close out today and stop @182.
Hope you’re right about Silver moving today (although I am largely out). If we have a relatively stable day, traders may not have big worries about carrying positions through the weekend.
Interesting that as I look at the green candles in silver/gold, I have to suppress the urge to chase. I’ll wait for a swing low.
funmike – there is a plan outlined in Gary’s report of last night. the nightly reports will let you know when to exit,.
Either we will exit all positions on a bear flag or we will load up for another upleg in the Gold C wave.
How do we get a swing low from here? I hope we can get one
Well, the market actually looks a little bit more perky now than in the last few days. But I agree that caution is warranted still until more substantial (dollar driven) proof of a bottom is here.
Meanwhile, as we lick our collective wounds, we can always seek solace in the fact that trading perfection actually is attainable – if you’re a banker:
How nice it must be to be “smart” money.
I am still very uncomfortable running without a stop. Trying to consider what might be prudent now.
I have done both approaches to your discussion. I have traded the Metals for years , and my problem with what you said is this.
You said maybe you’d have scaled out at $44, it started looking parabolic there. I agree, but I MY WEAKNESS is that I start to scale out there..it goes to $46, I scale out more…it goes to $48 and I start to think
“is this a new trend? Anew steeper channel? Am I missing great gains because I am now only down to 30% invested?
So that didnt work for my personality. i am ‘all in’ like you , not big on leverage when things get hot, and I cut losses when a chart changes to…Hey, I wouldnt buy this here…why stay 100%.
Still, this time I rode 50% down..and i thought I was over that!! 🙂
It’s just a trade on a possible snap back rally, it wouldn’t be unexpected. It’s easy to forget how BIG Silver can move to the upside too 🙂
The stop is next to break even, so it’s a stab.
Downward dollar trend line is at 75 now … if it gets breached, we may very well have seen a bottom in the USD.
Folks there’s no sense beating yourself up because you rode this down. The reason we rode it is because it happened so fast. If the move had been more orderly all of us would have recognized it a long time ago and got out with most of our gains intact.
Exiting or entering the PMs based on the price of silver is just silly. Everyone needs to just concentrate on gold and basea silver trade on that, if they want to.If its too volatile, then trading silver is simply not for you, stick with gold.
That wasnt clear..I didnt finish my thought..I meant that as it goes up and I scale out, IF it keeps going up I say..
“is this a new trend? A new steeper channel? Am I missing great gains because I am now only down to 30% invested…THEN I GO ALL IN , closer to the top (and since I wasnt ALL IN on the way, I didnt have as much gains to lose, so that first drop hurts more.”
So I was just saying that I’ve even scaled out, but thought I was seeing a new steeper channel , and jumped in near the top 100% and got burned. SO it takes a lot of discipline (which I have , but not in that situation).
It may work for you though…just sharing my faulty thinking in situation ‘real time’ as I try to do that 🙂
if your position size is too large for you to weather more drawdown, figure out how much you need to cut your position to be comfortable. Then put in a stop on the number of shares you need to sell. If the market goes up during the day today, adjust the stop upwards as the market is moving.
Stops are tough though, because if you play it too tight, you risk getting taken out, followed by a move up and away from your stop. But if you’re using the stop for the purpose of actually taking you out (because you want to reduce position size), then I’d use the trailing stop technique I just described. You’ll probably get taken out, but that’s what you decided to do anyway. At least this way, you have a shot at getting a better price than just selling the position right now.
I generally much prefer mini futures to options, simply because they have no deadline, no volatility component and no time decay. Much simpler instruments to manage as a non-pro.
However, if there’s a certain stock that I want to trade in a leveraged way, then options is the only way.
HPX also a Swede and Stockholmer too, hunh? Any more?
I feel we’ll have time to get involved before any sustainable rally.
I’m not referring to sharp intraday bounces, for which we’re long overdue. But for the move I want to play, these rallies should be capped even if the downside is finished.
Gary, you keep saying there is no manipulation, but that is incredulous that you think that. We had a very concerted effort to drive the price of silver down through capricious margin hikes that show no resemblance to the cotton margin hikes.
Also, these margin hikes occurred right after stand for delivery when there is a mismatch between open interest and supplies in Comex.
Your faith in cycles that require manipulation by the big money monthly, quarterly and yearly does not match your disbelief that they would not manipulate the markets to suit their other purposes, like covering naked short positions that are massively underwater.
I appreciate your words regarding the trade and looking at strategy changes for the future. Humility is much more admirable.
Without scaling out, you could try a strategy where you tell yourself you will sell and stand aside if the correction is larger than any previous correction in the run up from lows.
So with silver, it corrected ~16% in january. Once we had 16% (about $41), then maybe sell and stand aside until a swing low. Even if it forms a swing low at $41 and you get back in $43-$44, no big deal. You just regain confidence. If it continues to panic sell you at least saved some capital.
I saw this in an article in parabolic moves that once a correction is greater than any previous correction on its way up, the odds of a panic sell become great. I did not follow this advice, but will use this any other time I’m in a C wave move like that.
And ideally, I would like to have seen gold have one more down day to the 50 MA
Shut your trap 🙂
At the close last night I was down $150 since becoming a SMT sub in Feb. Of course today, so far, we are back in the black. I just don’t want to cut into my working capitol.
Oil not getting much bounce.
That’s the way I’ve used TL’s in the past. However, Doc and Gary both expect a TL break to confirm a daily cycle. So if the dollar has made a daily cycle low (which it almost surely has), then we would expect a TL break.
What is unknown at this point is whether the daily cycle low that the dollar just made is also the IT low AND the 3 year cycle low. And we won’t know that right away. Obviously, if the dollar rolls over today or in the next two or three days and goes on to make a lower low, then the daily cycle low it just made was not the 3 year low. That doesn’t help us much right now though! Tough to trade based on what may or may not happen in 2 or 3 days. 🙂
i agree with you 100% that these markets are manipulated.Even the reports put out by the government are fudged and manipulated .Take today’ jobs report-BLS of 244K is great… until you exclude the 62K from McDonalds hirings, and 175K from the Birth Death Adjustment, and end up with…. +7K jobs.
And yes, the “McDonalds factor” is to be included. Per Goldman:
McDonald’s Corporation said that it hired 62,000 people during an April 19 promotional event. Despite the striking number, we do not expect a major effect on nonfarm payroll employment. Last year, the industry referred to in the payroll statistics as “limited service restaurants” added 209,000 jobs during the seasonal upswing in employment from March through June in seasonally adjusted terms. Given that McDonald’s has a 17% market share of the US fast food market (as of 2009), around 35,000 of the new hires can be accounted for by seasonal variation. In addition, according to our equity analysts, US growth in the number of McDonald’s restaurants is limited. Therefore, it seems most likely that the hiring resulted from natural turnover and seasonal demand, rather than a broader business expansion. For the hiring event to have a major impact on the April employment report, a large majority of the new employees would have had to begin receiving a paycheck immediately. More likely these hires will be phased in over time.
A history of Birth Death adjustments which ultimately get washed out in the annual massive downward NFP revision which nobody really ever cares about though
yeah, SB. No more “one more down day” talk.
Just tell us, everything is O.K.
I agree with poly, we don’t need another down day.
Alex: Even if it had been a new trend and was going to $60—1. You are scaling out not going flat. 2. The goal is to maximize expectancy, not shoot for the moon (at least that’s my goal). Losing all the profit is an absurd result. 3. More for Gary I suppose—We have had a host of unique events since Bernanke started fiddling. Heck most of 2008 was unique. We probably need to have a contingency plan in place most of the time. Scaling out a) with silver sentiment at an all time high b) a baby parabola and c) and alternative (gold) makes sense to me.
Anyway, for those wondering about both this and when to get back in now, this excellent board will just light up when a move of consequence is happening and you will see your choices. SB is a little longer term than some of the more active traders here, so may not be quite as helpful in that arena, but he obviously knows what he is doing, is worth paying attention to, and I’m sure will post when he starts to go back in.
Actually Poly, I believe you are playing it the correct way, or at least how I would play it, with the shortened holding times.
Referring to the solver you bought for a stab/day trade. The moves will be sharp, but I’m just not expecting too much follow through at least for a few days, maybe longer.
No need to be mean! 🙂
feel exhausted, what a week!!
Btw, where’s Rich with his trailing stop on silver?
Perhaps an almost 4% bounce from the lows would take him out?
Hey James, Last week you were asking about SLW and I pointed out that the weekly chart did not look good – it had closed in the lower half of the trading range on very heavy volume. That is not what one wants to see in a healthy stock. Well, if it can close above 35.81 (I think that is what I came up with the other day) then it will be in the upper half of the trading range for the week on very heavy volume and I think that would bode well for earnings next week.
im not the smartest trader here, but SLW seems like a smart play at these levels. You hopefully get the leverage on the metal, but not the extreme volatility of an AGQ. 36$ also seems to be a support/resistance line. Any opinions ?
Can anyone here tell me anything about sentiment? Please include any interesting links.
Is this a dead cat in Pm’s
Regarding the trade, if I may, I believe a large part of the problem was that your tools (cycles) are gold based and SMT was flying leveraged in it’s Silver sister. What should have been identified before the collapse was Silver’s remarkable out-performance to Gold and applied this out-performance ratio to analysis in preparation for the long overdue cycle low.
Silver was outperforming Gold by at least 3:1, for example, so this should have been the expectation for the decline. If an expected Gold decline was 5% in any given cycle low, then you can easily see how Silver could drop a good 15% and thus AGQ 30%. Now we obviously got more than that, but when the cycle count hit day 33 and the potential for a drawdown of 30% plus was fairly evident, it was too late to be holding.
I recall you clearly stated you were not making a cycle trade, I believe the error was in that you departed from your cycle tools and as you stated, you made this is “physiological trade” to $50. That in itself was also a “top call”.
It’s just food for thought, take it for whatever it may be worth.
Alex: Just saw your post about not quite having the discipline to let the mkt go if you have started to scale out. AA few things.
Yes you need to know yourself. Work on that discipline though! 😉
Scaling out odes not mean winding up at 30%! That seems low to me Maybe down to 60%
Selling some makes it easier to sell a little more if appropriate. I have seen this often in myself. If I have 5,000 shares and sell 1,000, selling an additional 1,000 becomes much easier.
But you are right discipline is key! And we need to know where we each break down and build a strategy that takes that into account. Just some thoughts…
Am I the only person who posts here who didn’t sell ?
I’m feeling lonesome. Maybe there are others.
Well, a left-translated cycle in the dollar, which (per the terminology document) leads to the biggest percentage declines, would line up well with a parabolic blow-off top in metals and miners.
I’m just worried that in the short-term Wall Street will throw a tantrum (by allowing equities to go bidless) to show Bernanke that more QE is needed (or give him the political cover as mom and pop are aghast at getting into the market at the recent top). Such an event would likely not be positive for gold et al.
Sheeesh, of the 244,000 jobs added, 62,000 were from McDonalds. That’s a sad statement.
Wes, I still have my SLW, GPL, EXK, DGP, and GDXJ. I sold my last bit of AGQ and was stopped out of NUGT and SIL.
SJourney: Evefrything you would want is at sentimentrader.com. His service is the best there is. Period. Tracks all commodities, stock sectors, and bonds. I believe the service is not very expensive, but is well worth it. When Gary said silver sentiment was at a bullish high, it was this site that provided him with that data.
I’m with you…but my fingers are getting pretty tired from holding on.
Wes, still sitting on my biggest position SLW … sold GDXJ/SIL prior to the collapse … dipped my toes in AGQ once 2 days ago and took a big hit and sold off.
still in wes
i was away all yesterday and am hovering over sell button on agq
Oh yes, I get it..but I was just saying that for me…if it went to $60…i would DEFINITELY scaled back to 100% 🙂 ( but I use stops anyways for partial positions).
I got back to 100% 2 days ago, so a good bounce would bring me back and I plan on watching for a
1)double top / retest of highs?
2) weak bounce to trade?
3) New highs with a gap-gap-exhaustion SELL 100%
yup, hoping for #3, but any will get some gains back:)
Did you see my posted charts this morning for possible bounce areas?no reply necessary, just letting you know what I am looking for 1st is posted this morning.
good day mate!
I am also half Swedish and speak the language fluently.
I am surprised because Sweden is not very gold friendly. 99.99% of the population believe that real estate and buying stocks being pumped in DI are the road to wealth.
Still in WES, about 40% (80-20 GLD/SLV)
But did you buy in as you planned? Waiting for a swing?
Any thoughts about what is going to happen this weekend? That is the trouble with Fridays; its a long time till Monday and lots can happen between now and then.
Plus 50% in AGQ, day trade.
ha ha, good point. How strong will this economy be if we all worked at McDonalds starting wages 🙂
AHH, no offense to anyone who does, or who’s kids work at mickey D’s Its definitely a big player in the world of $$
I signed my both my kids up to the MCD dividend distribution plan and contribute just $50 per month each. You don’t miss $100 a month, but you would be amazed at how much MCD my 6 yr old son has. I hope he appreciates it later 🙂
If the C wave gets back on track, let’s hope AGQ has $40 up days to make up for the $40 down days.
Wes, I am still holding SIL, SLV, GDXJ, and AGQ but I bought most of it in February.
Welcomec to the Swedish sub-section. 🙂
Very true. I’ve failed completely to convince ANY of my friends to actually invest in PMs. Unfortunately my dad caved in and bought a week before the collapse.
I guess I am asking, “Does anyone know anything about sentiment besides what sentiment.com tell them”? Who knows a lot about sentimenet?
I am looking for alternatives to canned solutions like sentimentrader.com. Do they have anything for free?
sentimentrader.com looks rooted in TA for the most part; although, I do see some money flows.
I’m with you. Haven’t sold, but considering it now with the bounce today.
Obviously the tricky part is the emotions telling me what if this runs? But, to be honest, one of my close firends is on the desk at wall street and tells me hedge funds are selling and continuing to sell with a target of 27 for silver at his firm.
I think 34 is strong support and maybe 1445 for gold. However, I think right now may be a good time to get out flat, preserve capital, and regroup to see another day.
O.K. Alex I’ve had it with you. I happen to work at McDonald’s and am calling you out! I’m going to give you a piece of my mind an a private email to you! (Oh yes, and would you like fries with that?)
Poly, my dad pretty much lives comfortably in retirement from dividends off Dominion that my grandfather bought. The dividends paid all of my grandfathers bills in a nursing home for years.
You are doing a great thing for your family.
DG, at this rate I may need a job flipping burgers 😉
I think have the TL break thing backwards. The TL break confirms the daily cycle low and happens before or on the day of the low. TL break afterwards is not relevant as far as confirming the low.
So you may be right, that if the dollar breaks the downtrend line, it would raise odds considerably that the 3 year low is in.
Wes, I am riding it out, and in fact have not been looking at my account balance as I watched the panic unfold this week around here. I got out of AGQ when silver hit 48 or 49, being a little more conservative than the posted plan, but otherwise am still invested as I originally was in gold, gold miners and SLW. I guess if we really are in a D-Wave (will refrain from posting my thoughts on how we could have got that one so wrong) I am still a long term gold bull.
I wonder if gold and silver are getting the dead cat bounce, instead of the dollar?
your plan for a D-wave would be to buy some Mini Short with high leverage for say 5% of your portfolio?
Heading but will check in later.
sentimentrader is all about measuring sentiment and uses no charts. It measure sentiment using Rydex switch fund levels, surveys, put call ratios, etc. Pure sentiment stuff. I am not sure what you mean by TA there. I don’t believe much is free, but it, Gary, and a Stansberry package are the only things I get. I have gotten sent-traderfor many years.
Thank you, that means a lot to hear that.
Rally today…but who wants to hold until Monday? Will be interesting as we get to the close.
Looks like we’re going to get that $2 snap back rally, maybe more!
If you’ve been fretting and afraid of losing big bucks in further declines, the bus will be making a stop for you today!
>>>I believe the good traders as a group will get the right answer.<<
The “group think” on this board was to sell out after 4 huge down days. It’s hard for me to think that is correct.
I believe individual analysis is far superior to “group think”. The group is way too emotional.
@Shalom – Rich has been stopped out with good profits from both shorts 🙂
Have a good weekend.
Gary and others…what do you think of the action in PM’s today? I am still holding AGQ…should one trim these positions into this bounce or hold over the weekend?
Anyone else here know anything about sentiment besides DG and sentimentrader.com?
Bought in this morning my lover AGQ.
A love-hate relationship
Nice day trade on AGQ so far!
I thought you said you were not going to buy anything today. LOL
By the way, for anyone that doesn’t follow Franklin Sanders he seems to have a very good read on the metals as he’s been doing this for some time longer then most.
He doesn’t do cycles and has been wrong to the upside but usually is on point calling a correction.
Last week I chose to ignore his call for $34 silver…
Not sure tbh, Urban. Last time I checked, RBS didn’t have a single short silver future, which in itself is a bit odd since they have around 10 longs.
Haven’t looked at gold yet.
>>How can there be inflation if no one is working? Without jobs there is no spendable money to fuel demand which fuels inflation. <<
Boy, am I ever glad you said that. Of course, you’re correct.
I think the biggest flaw in this entire adventure is that the board, as a group, has the fundamentals wrong.
But watch the usual flack I get for saying this again.
That was true, until a few minutes after that. 🙂
I will now go with a rolling stop as it’s up $15
I am still in at a little over 50 percent. I did some trimming yesterday. Today I have selected a bit more for trimming, but I am trailing stops on these as the day goes on. If I get taken out on these, fine; if PM’s continue heading up most of the day, then my stops won’t take me out. If everything I’ve put stops on gets hit, I will still be over 40 percent invested. And some of those are GLD calls, so if I figure the equivalent in GLD shares, I’m up there in the 70 percent area.
You have lots of company. 🙂 A lot of us who sold still have a pretty big stake in this game. I hope your holding pays off handsomely for you!
Cant wait for the chasers to get in again!This ride up should be fun.
Wes: I didn’t mean the board as a whole, but the majority of the most experienced traders here (in my opinion) took something off the table, and some got out entirely. Experience teaches one to look down instead of up, and only experience can do that. It was clear to me on the blog that some intelligent traders were getting uncomfortable and not just “never going broke by taking a profit.” (a damaging aphorism if ever there was one.) That’s at least how it looked to me.
I couldn’t stand it…was thinking about your AGQ daytrade, and agree there’s a good chance of a bounce. Joined in at 193 with a stop at 190.
At least there is some volume behind this move, SLV did 70 million first hour.
I don’t think anyone with a straight face can suggest that we don’t have commodity inflation.
It’s pretty easy to see how and why it’s occurring.
The Fed is giving the banks free money. In order to get a return on that capital they are putting it in asset markets producing asset & commodity inflation.
Ok, So what can we learn from this?1) We need to recognize that a parabola is a high risk formation. THus, forget price points, but look for a climax move to exit positions. THe first climax move of the parabola was April 25th. Silver increased its price and volume more than it had to that point and the parabola was clearly visible.
2) If we exit a parabola in one metal and shift to the other, lighten up on position size until the C-Wave climax is clearly underway or unless a low risk stop is in play.
3) As a parabola develops, scale out. Sell 10% chunks as the rise accelerates. If the metal corrects into a daily cycle low or breaks out from that load, the positions that were scaled out can be added back. (These moves need only pertain to parabolic advances).
4) Most importantly, and as Gary has repeatedly stated, we each need to manage our position sizes based on our own risk tolerance and experience. Having a 100% position ina 2x ETF is crazy unless you’re playing with capital you don’t mind losing.
More to come. THese are stream of consciousness, and as such are just drafts. They can certainly be improved upon.
Wes: I agree with you and also have my doubts about inflation. I have been hearing excuses for for years as to why it has not exploded. But clearly gold is in a bull market, and clearly it is in response to the dollar dying. Inflation…we’ll see.
But can’t there be stagflation? Weak economy and high inflation? We have had it before, no?
BTW,I highly suggest reading anything by Jesse Livermore as he was the King of riding a trend to the end. Not that he never got it wrong, he did, but his strategies are phenomenal, and helped me get out on the China news. f
So Wes and funmike,
In general would you expect a good jobs report result in the dollar going lower? That is, if you looked at the jobs report for each month over several years, would you expect that when it’s good, the dollar USUALLY goes down, and vice versa?
You probably didn’t see it, but i posted a shout out to you yesterday. Well done my friend, avoiding the drop AND unlike myself avoiding searching for a cycle bottom. Congrats.
All right TJ! Let’s see AGQ blow thru 200 today.
TJ, were you in all cash before taking this trade?
I was thinking about doing the same thing today to catch a quick bounce on silver. I figured you might have the same idea, so that’s why I asked.
When you said you weren’t buying anything today I chickened out.
Then when you posted your AGQ buy, by the time I checked the price on AGQ it was already too late.
You snooze, you lose. LOL
Before one gets excited about upside potential we need to see the dollar break to new lows.
Until that happens we need to be cognizant of how D-waves act. By that I mean they will rally violently convincing everyone that the move is still intact and then roll over again. It’s how the D-wave keeps everyone holding on all the way down.
For now all eyes should be on the dollar it has to break down quickly if the C-wave is to continue and this not be a fakeout to keep everyone holding.
I’m full in AGQ… not selling anytime soon. AGQ was just up +10.34% today a few minutes ago. I’ve been riding it since March. I still believe AGQ isn’t done.
Please see article links in my recent posts as to why I don’t think AGQ is done.
Pima- Not all cash- still have a small amount (15%) in some miners – SLW and SIL.
Amazing, though, how starting with a clean slate on agq changes your perspective. No longer thinking about ‘getting back’ what I lost. Instead focused on executing this trade well.
Gary, in my opinion the dollar will reverse and make lower lows, but by that time gold could be near its all time highs, it will be hard for many to buy.Its truly the perfect set up for a blow off top, everyone chasing after having sold out.Just my 2 cents.
Can’t help it: Am buying SLV puts with some of today’s proceeds. Purely an insurance play. Am not going through another week like this last one.
Just need to determine risk/benefit ratio. If anyone has any thoughts . . .
Aaron,I doubt that. Gold has a lot of ground to make up and the dollar could lose that entire rally in a day or two.
Besides if it does move to new lows quickly then we should have the entire month of May and maybe a little of June to ride the rest of the C-wave.
No need to get greedy. We already got a spanking because we got to greedy last week 🙂
hmmm, being this put buyer nailed the silver drop “spectacularly right”, it would be interesting to know if he cashed out yet:
I think what a lot of people are missing about inflation/hyperinflation is that the real damage occurs not from the fed printing money, but from fractional reserve banking.
So far the numbers show that the banks store all the new cash as excess reserves with the fed (in fact the charts for QE2 and excess reserves look almost alike)
So until the banks start lending those reserves 10X QE2, inflation is not a big threat.
(I’ll look look up the charts later, I’m mobile)
I can agree with your *notes at this point.Also I was just reading Jesse Livermore on my March Vacation. It puts me into a good focus mind set.
Wes said…The “group think” on this board was to sell out after 4 huge down days. It’s hard for me to think that is correct.
MAYBE Its was still a good board indicator, thats 20 % of why I went to 100% 2 days ago. Everyone knows that herd mentality is to sell at the most pain…the bottom 🙂 Even Gary ALWAYS says most people cant hold on and will sell the bottom.
May I ask how closely you’re trailing AGQ with your stops?
Vonda,Wait for the bounce out of the daily cycle low before you buy puts. If the rally is violent you will just end up selling your puts for a loss and compounding the problem.
In order to sort through my thesis for being here I am asking the question, Have the fundamentals changed? I still believe that Gary is right and that the three year cycle low should go below the 2008 level. Are we any better off now than then? We have had massive input through QE and very low interest rates. Those are inflationary tactics and will have to bear fruit sooner or later. The big question is when and what it will look like to get there.
Aaron – That would be a storybook ending 🙂
Vonda – $10
What I’m hearing is this should be more than a one-day show and I ought not fear the weekend–too much.
I just logged on and saw slv go up 4%? Holy cow I sold yesterday.. whats the plan now? Should I wait for the swing low and dollar to depreciate?
I’m either hungrier or more frightened than (and not as seasoned as) you: I’m right on its arse!
DG, if you have any doubts about inflation, I suggest you go to the ER or look at tuition for the past few years. My kid’s at UW went up 30% in two years, then leveled, and now, two years later, it’s expected to go up perhaps 15% a year for a while. Or food.
Mish has a good piece today on demand destruction in oil, I need more time to read it but worth a look in my view since if oil collapses in cost, then the double dip may not occur, in my view.
Gary, thanks for hanging with us in the comment section today.
If what you say is true, that all the QE2 money is just sitting at the banks as reserves (just as deposits with the Fed or in Treasuries?), then none of the QE2 money has gone into stocks and/or commodities, right?
But even Ben himself has said that QE2 has been successful because it has kept the price of stocks UP. So how could it do that if none of the QE2 funds are making it into the stock market?
you held that beautiful ‘AG’ buy @$17.50…right? 🙂
Gold up $25 Silver up #1.52
Dollar up .18 too
Vonda,Don’t make an emotional trade that you know isn’t warranted by the length of the cycle.
We will clearly see the cycle low and there will be an attempt to re-establish the trend in gold and silver. The Bolllinger Band crash trade signaled at about $42. The bounce should at least take silver back to that level. That’s where you can hedge.
History’s biggest running-the- stops operation disguised as a breakdown? Big money obtained all sorts of commodities cheaply.
Account up roughly 13.6% (including a day trade.)
AG leading the pack at 13.4%!
I’m going to take DG’s advice from yesterday – I’m off to play golf with my 5 year old.
Got it, Gary!Thanks for the steady-at-the-helm!
I like the points that DG, fubsy and Alex are making and making notes of those in my log. Thanks for your healthy discussion, it is helpful for new traders. I understand that no one can catch exact top and exact bottom. However, a question for experienced traders is, does it make sense to scale out while going up (ex. scaling out of AGQ during the month of April as things started showing parabolic signs in silver and then regretting missing the move), or scale out on the way down (ex. last four days of fireworks in AGQ and regretting not taking the profits at highs). Thanks again
When you get back, I’d like to know how you handle the AGQ trade now that you’re going to be away all day. I was thinking you were treating it as a day trade where you’d need to adjust stops during the day. Maybe you’re using a trailing stop or maybe considering it a little longer term, like holding for a couple of days?
A LITTLE spanking every every so often could be very exciting… but this one was the mother-of-all spankings. IMO
1/ day traders pushing up silver?what time do they generally cash in
2/ is the dollar going to roll today / monday
3/ do i stay or do i go now ?
any ideas on holding over the weekend?
poly it looks like you are just playing the bounce today are you just trailing stop or watching?
oh the joy the joy
It’s early in the day, but GLD is at the top of the SOS, and also saw several miners…
back in agq @ 195.29
AGQ has a nice little gap at 234 (where I orginally bought in).
Hopefully should close it
Massive volume in SLV already. Plus, there was massive volume in ZSL yesterday, so you have to assume there will be a fair amount of short covering going on.
Thanks POLY!I haven’t totally avoided the drop, but it was not devastating. Sold out of all silver related positions, but holding a 30% position in GDXJ and DGP. Waiting for the bounce to see how to play it. f
I think the problem is not when people sell to avoid account destruction – should. (And I did that too).
The problem is to not sell earlier. You don’t want to sell because of angst, but rather due to trading discipline and a healthy sense of caution.
I (as some may remember) scaled out at 41.50, got greedy at 45 and jumped all the way back in on the first correction, scaled up when we had the second run up to 48-ish. After that I was blinded by visions of 60s and 70s and simply let greed and hope prevent me from selling again – until I was backed against a wall called capital destruction.
I’ll do my best to avoid it again.