BIG MOVE COMING

Often when we see small moves in the McClellan oscillator it proceeds a large volatile move in stocks. Kind of like a spring compressing.

Since it is now very late in the daily cycle and sentiment has reached exceptionally bearish levels (especially in the Nasdaq) the assumption is that any day now the market is going to rocket higher out of the three week bull flag.



My guess is we will get some news out of Europe that they have successfully kicked the can down the road for a few more months and the market will take off.

356 thoughts on “BIG MOVE COMING

  1. EricH

    “Futures taking a big dump….I hope the big move isn’t down…”

    What do you think has been happening the past 3 weeks?

  2. jeff

    ok i took the order off. ill wait for the swing. just feels like im asking to get punched in the eye for the hell of it

  3. ALEX

    Gary

    Best wishes on your shoulder…ask the doctor when you really should be o.k. to climb…and DO NOT climb until then just because it feels ok 🙂

    Traderlady

    That was funny 🙂

    Did you know you can click on the picture, and then when it comes up you can click it again to get full size?

  4. Gary

    The doctor said I can start training when ever the pain goes away. There isn’t any soft tissue damage. All he’s doing is grinding down a bone spur so it should heal pretty quick.

  5. Gary

    One of my weightlifting buddies had it done and he was doing pulls the next day.

    I probably won’t be climbing for the next week but I should certainly be ready for the Matterhorn in June.

  6. fubsy_cooter

    Good luck to you Gary for a quick heal.

    Your post looks pretty good to me, and some around here may know I like a good bull or bear flag. Guess I’ll be watching the S&P even more intently. I need something to keep me interested. I’m bored to tears.

    f

  7. traderlady

    Gary, sounds real good for you. I cannot imagine you down for long.

    Alex, the full picture is only slightly bigger, probably my computer:(

    Eammon, I prefer the horses over O’Bama:)

  8. Eamonn

    My brother had his knee replaced a week ago. Now that is pain on a plate. I’d fancy a bone spur over that any day

  9. Eamonn

    Anyone here think there could be fortunes to be made on OTM Puts on silver if it rises up with gold? Or am I going mad

  10. ALEX

    Gary

    I have a friend who had it done too, and today they are so non-invasive that the healing is quick- because theres no added damage–no cutting and soon. Best wishes.

    Traderlady

    Someone taught me a pretty cool trick , because he is a computer i.t. guy, and I am definitely not.

    Pull up a picture, then press and hold the CTRL button and then the + button. Each time you hit the + button with the CTRL button held down..it zooms in.

    I almost feel like everyone knew that but me 🙂

  11. ALEX

    where is everyone watching the futures? http://www.CNBC.com?

    Thanks.

    and my opinion is a gap down open (shakeout weak hands) and rally up.
    By the end of the day it could be a bullish engulfing…and a great buy at the open (if you can watch things real time). I will be watching P.M. stocks intra day and will load up id conditions are right.

    (I am 70%in now)

  12. ALEX

    TRADERLADY

    I use it all the time now…I use it on charts like a true geek 🙂
    Maybe you will too -Its more of a useful trick than the buddy of mine who showed me knows!!

    86D4LIFE

    I used to lift heavy and damaged cartilage in my shoulder doing heavy benching. I was hurting for 6 months off and on and a girl I know was trying to get me to take it all the while.
    Finally I gave in, I used Glucosamine, Condroitan, and MSM (even shark cartilage) all in one dose (pills by SCHIFF)to speed up repair. It worked…however it did , as she said, take 4-6 weeks to ‘kick in’.

  13. ALEX

    Thank you EricH (futures).

    Gary , MSM is a natural supplement that is supposed to lubricate and help cartilage heal, stay flexible, and less prone to damage.

  14. ALEX

    AT EASE

    YAY, I wasnt the ONLY one! I really thought several people would say…DUH, I knew that in 5th grade 🙂

    and like I said, it doesnt just work on pictures, sometimes I click on an article and the print is small, so I zoom it in. oh…and CTRL – does the shrinking.

    However, sometimes you can just go to the top of the web browser and click “VIEW” , then its drop down menu has “ZOOM” in or out. I found that on my own 🙂 I am a self taught semi-geek!

  15. 86d4life

    Alex,
    Good that you tried it but the skinny is you need to take it with vit C. This is not optional or else the MSM will fly right through your system. You need the vit c for your body to be able to absorb the MSM. Once you start taking it this way, the difference is almost immediate. Easily in one day. I have heard that vit E will work also, but I already take both but was using the vit c when I started on the MSM. I`ve been taking it for about 7-8 years now and the difference is just amazing.

  16. ...at ease

    Alex, Or you can use the shift – to make it smaller, same as using shift + to enlarge it. Found that out, once I had a huge screen pic. LOL

  17. 86d4life

    Gary,
    MSM; methylsulphonylmethane. I did that from memory but I think that`s right. As Alex said, a natural sulphur compound that aids healing. My understanding is it removes dead and dying cells including scar tissue and promotes new growth. The list of ailments cured with MSM is beyond belief. Where most people go wrong is they don`t take vit c with it. Those that do take the vit c swear by it. This is a really big, holy &%$## deal!! If anybody has problems with vit c, use an ester c which is low acid. I absolutely guarantee that anybody that takes the MSM properly will be amazed beyond belief in less than a week!!

  18. I've Eaten Silver

    Alex,

    You’re probably the biggest loser I’ve ever encountered on any forum.

    What 40+ and is so bored, dumb (dumb people are bored) that you need to constantly be on here cheering YOURSELF on for stupid things like image zooming and posting all your buys after the fact, sometimes way after the fact.

    Do you think anyone really cares that you used to bench and tore your shoulder? Do you think anyone really cares you went to the “view” tab in your browser and discovered an alternative way to zoom? I’m pretty sure everyone that reads your posts just gets a little dumber.

    Thanks for wasting 3 minutes of my life while I casually scrolled through this information tonight sifting for anything new and possibly pertinent, but instead, per usual, I got your blabber mouth that’s connected to a hollow hole.

  19. 86d4life

    Eamonn,
    The MSM will do wonders for your knees. Anti-inflammatory is the official label but it primarily goes through your body, finding the worst problems first and fixing them.

    If I may way in here too; I really prefer the horses over the new guy! I would vote for the horses………..

  20. Eamonn

    86d4life, thanks for that info, especially the note about the requirement for vit. c for absorption. That and platelet-rich plasma therapy should give my knees some help.

  21. ALEX

    86D4LIFE

    Good to know.

    I actually took it with a protein shake and animal pack multivitamins, but it was 2x a day, so the other dose was with a meal.

    I thought I just had damage that was permanent, it just kept coming back. That really did seem to restore the tissue and promote healing.

    Thanks

  22. ...at ease

    Eamonn, you have a beautiful charming place. I am sure most would agree if you posted it.
    I am envious of anyone who has the place and views of the countryside you have.

  23. ALEX

    86D4LIFE

    when I posted “good to know”, I meant the vit -c tip you gave me,and thx… but thanks for the encouragementtoo. I hadnt caught up that far yet, so I just reached “I EAT ANGER” s post.

    He is a drunk that goes off on here from time to time. Its a shame. We all hoped his re-hab stuck, but what can you do??

    I was just having conversation with some old friends…Markets closed, right? Oh well. Anger is
    sad.

  24. I've Eaten Silver

    Alex,

    I just pointed out the other day you shouldn’t be giving Gary shit for adding a premium service. You were whining that things have changed, and obviously, you must have lost money, possibly not realized, but for whatever reason you decided, seemingly, to direct that anger at Gary.

    It was consuming the blog and wasn’t producing anything valuable, you and a few others continuing to go on and on about Gary’s services as if they were decreed or something.

    It is very simple, you pay for a service if you think it is worthwhile, and don’t if not. This seem complicated for you and I needed to try and have this stop.

    You then attached me, and continue to do so, so I might as well provide a decent analysis on your being.

  25. I've Eaten Silver

    You’re a hypocrite, you were the one angry the other day, did you already forget????

    Whatever, it goes nowhere arguing, but please be sensible and direct in your future posts, for that many more people read here than you’d ever imagine.

  26. 86d4life

    Alex,
    Yeah, I didn`t realize that. Booze can make even good people do bad things.

    I agree, when things slow down here, nights and weekends, it`s nice to have a chat with some of the people we spend so much of the business day with. Actually pretty cool I think. i think this is a pretty neat group of people overall.

  27. Eamonn

    I assume then everyone thought I was mad when I suggested OTM Puts on silver if it rose up with gold. I’m checking myself in next week

  28. ALEX

    EAMONN

    Too Kind , Thanks. I’m pretty happy with this arrangement. I make a living , I’ve met many cool people here to share with, and by adding Gary’s cycles, it improved my timing …when to be real confident and aggressive (bottoms)- and when to be more cautious.

    I used to trade alone. Thanks Gary , for the blog and
    friends ! 🙂

  29. 86d4life

    Alex,
    When things get slow in the summer, do you spend much time day trading/scalping? It seems that would be right up your alley.

  30. Eamonn

    ALEX, I’m not being kind at all – if you set up a site I’d subscribe and wouldn’t think twice about it. Those skills you have take years of experience to get to the way you have them

  31. ...at ease

    Alex, Nothing you said the other day was out of line as it was concerning a question I had and Gary hinted it was in his other service. And you questioned that reply. The discussion then was about the change in model porfolio. Which I believe Gary has successfully now changed it to list the model along with trades/triggers link. Nothing more. So wouldn’t even bite.

  32. ALEX

    EATEN

    HUH??? Really?

    Then let me apologize formally. I do not remember ever attacking Gary, I dont know why I would.

    I do remember you attacked me (like tonight) and said a bunch of stuff that I didnt understand. So I said you must be drunk. There was a guy on here “Robert” that was drunk and really attacked Gary in Dec…someone emailed me as you wrote and told me you were Robert , a nasty drunk.

    If you are not, I apologize for repeating that.

    Good enough? If you met me in person, you wouldnt see anything vicious or offensive. we’d maybe sit down , have a bite to eat , and a few laughs.
    seriously not sure why this has come about…but you say I attacked Gary and you…

    I am sorry if I did that. I dont want you to be offended by me. I did call you a drunk…I apologize for that. Not much else I can say bro.

  33. ALEX

    ATEASE

    I didnt even remember that , but your right! you asked a question and i thought it went mis understood, so I tried to explain your thoughts and then got attacked.

    It was odd.

    oh well , and EAMONN…why pay for my trades when I’m more than happy topost and attach charts here? then depending on where Gary thinks we are in cycle timing…we can accept a trade set up or not.

    Thanks again, but I’m just happy sharing here.

  34. Eamonn

    ALEX, that’s fine for me – a free service! I’m cheap!
    I would say that many many people, maybe 90% of those who have tried, have failed to do successfully what you do

  35. ...at ease

    Alex,
    Sometimes out of the blue an attack occurs here, which always seems unfounded. I think best solution is exactly what you did, sorry if I offended you and leave it there.

  36. ALEX

    SO DID I!! LOL for 2 yrs, then you give up or learn from mistakes get better.

    Blogger 86d4life said…

    Alex,
    When things get slow in the summer, do you spend much time day trading/scalping? It seems that would be right up your alley.

    Yes, but its not so easy…I hate getting in and getting stopped out…it becomes harder to find ‘set ups’ that I specifically look for.
    It really comes in handy during the B-Wave and summer times though. Sideways action with no given market direction is TOUGH to make money. I need to learn a better way..I’m working on that now. we’ll see 🙂

  37. Brian

    Alex, You are not mistaken about Robert and Silver being one in the same. Instead of giving something useful to the group, he comes on here hammering whoever is the target dujour. Gary was the target when Robert trashed his account. Now it is you. He claimed he quit drinking awhile back, but I have my doubts. His diatribes are uncalled for and you had nothing to apologize about.

  38. sophia

    Overnight action on the equity markets doesn’t seem too good for our little plan…. Should we cut? Are we going back to March lows?

  39. ALEX

    BRIAN
    Thanks man, appreciate that. Its kind of whatever now.

    wasnt it You that traded many of the same miners as me? Was it you that had the Rare Earths equities and everytime I looked at a good chart set up..you’d come on and say the stock looked good before I could post it?

    maybe not, its been a while…but

    Thanks again

  40. ALEX

    Yes Brian…

    Definitely I remember that I would draw up a chart of a miner …and you would post a recommendation before me about it-lol

    Some good little rocketships 🙂

    I am going to sleep now..goodnight and good trading tomorrow!

  41. Harry

    I’m too young to have joint pain. MSM is still the mainstream media as far as I’m concerned 😉

    Gary, hope your ‘procedure’ goes well (sounds better than ‘surgery’). What are your thoughts regarding a play in NQ or TF, instead of or in addition to ES? I like the technical setups posted springheel_jack’s blog (linked here yesterday).

  42. hkc

    Alex:

    Like others, I ‘d like to thank you for all your posts. While many of us have questions about style and trade, I think most everybody welcome those when they are said in a civilized manner.

    Silver: there is a “Find” feature that would allow you to find only the post you’d want to read… No need to weed through all posts, though I enjoy them all. Nice to see friendship being formed here…

    Alex: can you post what you have in your 70%? no need for allocation, I’d like to just see the names. Thanks very much.

  43. sophia

    ALEX,

    Thanks for your help and your chart. Let’s hope it reverses, I bought yesterday only but still it is painful…

  44. ckpc

    Alex,
    I didn’t know how to do that nifty zoom trick either, so thanks. Pretty cool!
    I’m fairly new here (Feb.) but must say that I have always found your posts to be very helpful and very cordial, even friendly in nature. I don’t know why SILVER feels the need to attack you in the wee hours when the market is closed. Let it run off your back.
    (by the way, you and your wife make a stunning couple.)

    I use MSM in cream form. I heard about it on a radio show where they were interviewing the Denver Bronco team trainers. They said that is what they use on the Broncos for sore muscles, aches & pains. I have found nothing better for immediate relief of lower back pain when I’ve been standing too long, or doing stoop work in the garden.
    There is no smell whatsoever and it helps right away. I’ll be sure to try the tablet formula (with Vit.C) also.

    Eamonn, you are in Ireland, right? What did you think of the Queen’s visit, and Obama’s?
    I saw that Obama’s armored “Beast” bottomed out when leaving the embassy. Ha ha ha!
    What a putz! I vote for seeing your farm also!

    Okay, night all. Hope we get the big reversal tomorrow.

  45. Wav_ridah

    Alright finally the gap fill in the AM. Will be buying as soon as it hits.

    Alex, you are one of the few that when you post, everyone reads. Keep bringing it.

  46. Slumdog

    On a Money-Risk topic, I have been stating repeatedly the nuke incident at Fukushima is MUCH MUCH WORSE than the MSM reported, that TEPCO would reveal, than any talking head would conjecture or project (save the left wing guys who got it right from nearly day 1).

    Nuke contamination is not about killing 50,000 Japanese. It’s about starting a mutation chain in the ocean which is unstoppable and about which humans know very little.

    It is about microscopic plutonium and its ilk now and about to float around the world. (Inhale deeply).

    It’s about the retrieval of meltdown rods and melt piles of extremely dangerous active fission material.

    And I can’t yet see what’s next, but as I said a few weeks ago, much worse is coming.

    Consider the quote below to be news that deserves front page, but now is backwater and barely noticed.\http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/asiapacific/news/article_1641292.php/High-levels-of-radioactivity-above-crippled-Japanese-reactor

    “The operator on Sunday started to measure the level of radioactive substances above reactors number 1 to 4 and detected 360 becquerels of caesium-134 per cubic metre above reactor 1, where most of the fuel rods are believed to have melted, public broadcaster NHK reported.
    TEPCO also found 7.5 times the 50-bequerel limit of caesium-134 above reactor 4, which has no fuel in its core. The substance was believed to have come from the fuel storage pool and reactor number 3, NHK said.
    The company plans to cover the reactor buildings with polyester sheets to prevent the further dispersal of radioactive substances.”

  47. Poly

    Eamonn,

    You’re getting emotionally married to that Silver put trade. Just wait and see, it’s just one of many possible setups and it’s some way away. Getting married to an idea will force you to over trade it or greatly miss time it due to impatience.

  48. 86d4life

    ckpc,
    Roger that on the MSM cream. I use a lotion that is a proprietary blend made for a friend of mine. An emu oil base(which is a penetrating oil) with MSM and glucosamine. The healing power of this stuff is next to unbelievable. Many winters I spend trapping beaver through the ice(northern minn.) and it`s pretty brutal on hands, cracking,chapping,bleeding. Real painful. This is the only stuff that keeps me in the game. Look for it at http://www.spiritspas.com. Carrol, the owner, is a great lady that loves to help people feel better and it comes from the heart.

  49. traderlady

    Eamonn, Up and see I missed much on the blog. I love horses and the serenity of beautiful open space.
    I am sure you have your paradise:)

    Alex, You are the man 🙂

  50. Michael

    GS Commodities Call: “After the correction, a more bullish trajectory for commodity prices” Wednesday 25 May at 15:00 GMT / 10:00 EST / 22:00 HKT / 23:00 JST

  51. ALEX

    HKC

    Sorry I missed your post last night, I had already gone away.

    my 70% consists of AG, EXK, MFN, RIC, and PIR (that one was random haha)

    (just understand that SILVER may be quite short term , and if one stock acts incorrectly or lags too long, I cut it loose and get into a better set up)so this 70% can change .

    I thought yesterday NG and CDE looked promising too.

    CKPC,and Wav Ridah and as usual our kind traderlady … thx for the kind words — it was , ahhh, interesting? 🙂

  52. ALEX

    Added to current AG position at $19.50. opened with strong volume and gapped over the downtrend line.

    Watch any silver stock purchases as Silver approaches $40 to $42 area., but so far volume on AG and EXK looks strong.

  53. CMT

    ALEX, the EXK looks good. I got some in April after you turned me on to it. Sold most at the beginning of the month, got more on Thursday…

  54. ALEX

    CMT

    Awesome. I know most were avoiding the silvers, but the set ups looked good. I also loaded up on exk and Ag last wk and added since then. Also added RIC which has done well , and bought HMY.

    I musty say…my ‘gold’ stocks go up 2% and silvers still 6-8%.

    My HMY is down today. hhmmm.

  55. ckpc

    Sad day for CNBC. Mark Haines passed away. I always liked his straight shooting…he was a lovable curmudgeon.

  56. Rick 4779

    I couldn’t take watching SLV gaining over 3.00% and GLD gaining 0.37% anymore, so I bought some SLV ATM calls this morning.

  57. Matthew

    Gary= Jim crammers illegitimate child with Lyndsey lohan.. A lot of huffing and puffing and no responsibility taken…Anyone remember Jimmy’s lehman brothers call the day before it sank…

  58. Rick 4779

    Gary’s only responsibility is to give us his opinion. Each of us is responsible for the choices we make. Personally, I am amazed when I take a look at how much I have made from following Gary’s posts.

  59. Matthew

    rick or should I say Gary…ya,, ok,, sure. Rick if you are a real person and not gary the money you made was like going to a casino and making money. If you follow Gary’s advice you will soon loose it..

  60. MrMiyagi

    Gary’s having surgery this morning, it would be kinda hard for him to post and get operated on at the same time, I think the doctors are a little funny when it comes to that.

  61. Matthew

    ..It sure is funny all the google blogger millionaires that made their money off of gary. They all like to chime in on Que too… when you ask about this blog site? Just saying…

  62. Ryan

    I’m going to add GLD here. For the Canadians out there, CGL.TO horrible volume and spread so I’m just going to buy GLD and convert CAD to USD.

  63. Poly

    Matthew, take a hike, nobody wants to hear a baby whine because they blew their account. Matthew or whoever you were previously, before creating yet another alias.

  64. CMT

    Ryan, I added long gold positions about right there as well. It made a small bounce off the 1525 area, so I’m optimistic.

  65. Brian

    I guess Robert and Silver has now changed his name to Matthew…..

    If you have nothing constructive to say, just go away.

  66. Peter

    Ryan, if you want to avoid the exchange, open a USD margin account, keep your CADs and purchase in USDs in your margin account.

    Anyone looking at SLV puts ? They are pretty cheap for july. Opened a position of the July 33$s. Also had to take a position in SPY as it seems a low risk setup

  67. daniele

    Done, i don’t think today form a swing low cause today sp gets lowest level.At the moment tomorrow sp should trade above 1322,20 to have a swing low.

  68. Hot Rod

    Pullbacks of course can be buying opportunities, but is anyone troubled by Gold’s action? Past 2 days it has made big run ups early only to pull back quickly.

  69. Mighty

    Eamonn,

    I, for one, loved your picture of our President. Wish I could have been in Moneygall to share in a perfectly pulled pint of Guinness.
    Heck any reason to be in Ireland is a good one to me.

    Now, back to business. Is anyone holding AGQ?

  70. Ryan

    Peter,
    Thanks I do have a US Margin account, I just don’t want to get hit with exchange if I happen to need it back in CAD. Are you long spy? I’m thinking of adding to that as well.

  71. Peter

    Ryan, thats the thing, you wont get hit with the exchange. Keep your CADs in your CAD account, buy US Stocks on margin in your USD account. The only time you will take a hit on the exchange, is IF you lose money on your USD trades, then you will have to transfer CADs into that account. If your USD stocks go up, then you will have US funds in that account.

    Yes, right now long SPY will wait and seewhat happens tomorrow, and started a position in SLV puts.

    Also long some JRs ..

  72. ALEX

    GANN

    Quick question about your chart .

    Thanks for posting it and it is thought provoking IF the ouitcome affects gold/silver.

    My question…on the left shoulder , you put the neckline from the top of the candles daytime high (tail) , but on the right shoulder, the neckline is drawn to the candle body, ignoring the daytime high (tail).

    I would imagine you need to go body to body or tail tip to tail tip? I am not sure which though…I use day high to day high. It would affect the closing price you mention, right?

    Not nit-picking, but you bring up a good point with the dollar (UUP)and i just was wondering what you think.

    Thanks

  73. Ryan

    Peter,
    Sorry I should of explained it better. I mean in case in an emergency I need to change back the USD to CAD and the rate is not favorable (although I’ve never had to do that). But you’re right, it’s way better having separate accounts. I’m still holding underwater spy positions and seems to be quite low risk now to add more but I’ll just watch and see.

  74. Gann360

    Hi Alex.

    Head n Shoulders and Inverse H&S ARE at times tricky,in regards to the Neckline,Sometimes you could use the Body of the Candle , and at times the High could be Used,My good friend Jeff Copper always tells me.The market is Not a Fine Swiss Watch.And at time one could/should use a Crayon and not a Pencil.

    So the Inverse H&S, I POINTED OUT IS Valid, With A Question mark as per the Neckline …But , should this Level Hold as Support,The odds increase that this Pattern is Valid..

    Something to watch…

    Good luck to All,

  75. Cory

    I had sold my AGQ at 173, then I bought a 10% position back at 172.7 Before the close on Friday because of the coil and strength in gold. Just sold AGQ, missed out on a lot, but still was a good trade. My original thesis had been that silver is in a sideways consolidation and the dollar is extremely bullish. I was looking for the gap at SLV 37 to get filled and hit the declining 20 DMA, which it has and I am opening a position in DITM long dated SLV puts. Even though the dollar and metals can go up together, I think the dollar is going higher after this breather. Gold is a champ and still strong, but could be a long trap. I think silver is broken and it’s moves up have been gaps. Not necessarily a long term hold, looking for a move to 28-33 range on the dollar moving up.

  76. Hot Rod

    Cory,

    Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

    What about the SPY? Nearly impossible for the SPY to continue with strength with bullish and rising USD, correct?

    Thanks.

  77. Poly

    Hotrod, that’s gold’s character IMO. Up early, drop back to test and then spend the day crawling back 50% of it.

    Gold likes to drop sharply but crawl higher. A week or so ago everybody was talking failed cycle, gold touched $1,470’s. Without fanfare, it’s crawled to $1,530.

  78. ALEX

    Thanks GANN360

    I will use a crayon the thickness of both candle tails, and lay it right across the candle body 🙂

    Nice clear charts, thanks for sharing

  79. Hot Rod

    “If” one were optimistic at this point (which is a stretch given what is going on), wouldn’t today’s action be a positive where we have a lower low and a narrower trading range?

    “If” we are to get a swing tomorrow, we would just need a close in the green today and then a positive day tomorrow, correct?

  80. Gann360

    i posted this chart on Silver SLV….May1st..

    http://screencast.com/t/mB2FK4yru0b

    i do alot of Cycle work, Which i share with the Public on Twitter ( i am Gann360 ) and i had a confluence of Cycles hitting Early May..as a Possible Meaningful top of some kind ,in Silver,,but it was hard to say ,,if we were going to get a 3%-5% pullback or more.or maybe Nothing, as there is No Guarantees in Charting.. But there was enough Red Flags .imo to step aside , and wait and see, if a reverse would happen,,,

    I was not short ,on that Friday,, did not want to be Caught in a Gap Up,,,i thought the Odds were good for a Possible Pierce of the High’s and than a Quick reversal, but the Gap never Happened , as the Markets wanted to Trap the Longs , and keep the Shorts waiting for a Bounce that never Happened as well.

    Gary is very good at Ready the Cycles of Gold /Silver..Which i try to bring in to my Analysis ,,,i have the next Confluence of Cycles Hitting July 2011,So if i get this right, i am thinking we may bounce around , side ways to up til early june, followed by a Sharp selloff to mid July…

    Anyways lets take it 1 step at a Time,,,i have learned to respect the Markets , the Hard way,,

    Good luck

  81. Edwin

    gan360, good advice. we can see targets and make forcasts but respect the markets. there are no guarantees this comes to technicals/or cycles.

    i was a little surprised by the upside today, was expecting a little more downside 1311 seem to be when they said that’s enough bleeding.. haha

  82. Gann360

    Yes, Often- But not All the time… 61.8% Fib Level could be ! a Reversal Point, and seeing that Gold Tagged that Level and Might be leaving a Tail on a Daily Candle ,
    Suggests Caution Here.if your long….imo.But lets see how we close…

    i have no Position ,i was Long AGQ AND SOLD yesterday…at this point , i will wait n see if we continue Higher or reverse ,

    i would love to see GOLD/SILVER Rally INTO EARLY June.

  83. Cory

    SLV has seemed to play with the 20DMA both up and down for a quite a while now. The converging 20DMA and 50DMA on UUP is interesting. There are so many ways this could go. I miss the Old Turkey days…

  84. oa92000

    ” NJ said…
    GLD and SPY are number 1 and 2 on the SOS page “

    Lots of flippers these days, but if the market keeps going up from here, the buyers will have to come in..

  85. Peter

    about 2 weeks ago i mentioned a little junior – RIO.V , that was holding up well in the sell off . Wondering if anyone bought a position ? Its had quite a move today, i am guessing based on an analyst target of 5.75$ CDN … Did anyone jump on at that time ?

  86. fubsy_cooter

    As far as technicals go, I see a bull flag on UUP and a bear flag on the Euro. Still in cash.

    I will probably initiate a position in SSO with a swing low. So, a reading in the near future above the high of today would get me in. But only with enough to keep me interested.

    f

  87. sophia

    ALEX,

    I would like to thank you. I was long NSQ last night and had left a stop order overnight. It was missed by 0.5 point!! Then when I woke up an saw your chart, I cancelled it…and now I am back in the green!
    Thanks for giving me the strengh to go thru the day with that position

  88. DG

    Well fubsy…we finally have different positions. I am long a lot of gold and a lot of stock ETF’s (SPY, QQQ, IYT). Too much stuff lined up for me to sit out, though I see where you are coming from.

    For example (from sentimentrader.com):

    “This is 6th time since ’85 that >37% of newsletters were looking for a correction. Next 3 months, S&P was up every time, avg +10.3%.”

  89. DG

    He comps me the service so I don’t really know 🙂
    I’m sure it is easy to find on his website (I bet it’s about $200/year, so modest).

  90. Poly

    ” NJ said…
    GLD and SPY are number 1 and 2 on the SOS page “

    I’ve been watching this closely for well over a year and can say with little doubt that this has had next to no predictive value. Especially when the numbers have been $30m, like today. A big number is $500m

  91. T

    Ok, I’m going to bare my soul here. Please don’t beat it too badly. I got burned on AGQ like most, and when I saw silver freefalling, switched over to ZSL. It literally immediately went the other way and silver began climbing again (about 2 weeks ago). At this point I am so far underwater I can’t even see the top. Do I cut bait yet again and take a HUMONGOUS loss or does anyone out there think if I wait long enough (hopefuly not too much longer) silver will begin to decline again. The only reason I hung on this long was because I kept reading silver was going to take another nasty turn south. And please no lectures on ZSL, I realize it was a huge mistake. Just freaking out a little here and could use some advice.

  92. Peter

    i think you should wait for a bounce,it may take a few more days, and it may happen tomorrow. Either way, you should get out when it bounces.

    Play counter moves with puts … you know what G would say about shorting bulls.

  93. CMT

    fusby, you can get a 2 week free look at sentimenttrader if you want to “test drive it.”

    I did that just today and am looking around. Lots of info there.

  94. Mighty

    T,

    I appreciate the soul baring as I keep wondering why not jump on ZSL when this little rally has peaked. After all, Gary has projected silvers dive to the 20’s.

    Anyone?

  95. Poly

    The cycle just turned RT and it’s in a bullish trend, so you’re swimming up a river. You’re likely stressed and riding decent losses further. Cut your loses and live another day, plenty of opportune setups will come once you’re clear of this monkey,

  96. Peter

    T , the reason I think you should wait a little longer … SLV is at the 50% Fib level of the move from jan low 26.03$ to end april high 48.35$ ( 2nd hit to it too ) .. 50MA right above too .. no guarantees that it doesnt burn through that, but IMO you’ve gone this far , give it a few more days.

  97. sophia

    T,

    I;ve got burned couple of months ago by keeping a losing position for too long..at the end, I cut after major sufferance and at the worst time.
    Cut, come clean, regroup, spend few days reading and then jump back in…

  98. Hot Rod

    T,

    I, too, have some ZSL in my long term hold accounts. Of course I am kicking myself for not getting out even money at the last plateau.

    However, I am banking on Gary being right and that silver will get below the 200 DMA.

    Unfortunately (for me) I am holding on.

    It comes down to what you need the $$$ for. If you would rather put it to work somewhere else, then maybe you should listen to Poly, cut the losses and find batter short term investment.

    If, you think the broken parabola will severely correct again, hold.

  99. T

    Well, if I sell, I will post it on the blog. Please take that as a sign to BUY it immediately, since apparently everything I trade turns to absolute crap. It is utterly amazing to me.

  100. DG

    T: Cut it now. Your are upset (understandably) and absolutely need to clear your head. I guarantee you whatever thoughts you are having are muddled by your situation. There are always individual items that will point to silver going lower, even if it goes all the way back to 50. You have to get out, take a break, and clear your head, then learn and start to rebuild. I have been there. Drop me an email off my profile if you want.

  101. daniele

    mighty, i aspect silver get 42-43.At that level i’ll sell all agq i have (average 262$).Till then i hol on with my agq.

  102. T

    Thanks for all the input.

    Hot Rod, yeah, that’s why I’ve hung on so much longer than I should have. I kept reading Gary’s post saying it will be a violent turn back the other direction and back down into the 20’s.

    Poly, I am tempted to cut. Every day I get more and more stressed out. I just know as soon as I do, it will reverse again!

  103. T.J. Rand

    T-

    I’ll pile on with the rest.

    Sorry for the losses…I would recommend cutting your losses, taking a deep breath (and a week to get your head straight).

    Then approach the market with a clear mind. Don’t think about making back your losses – instead, think about trading smartly given the setups you are presented with – it is unlikely that we will get another big move event (that is predictable using cycles) until the next intermediate low.

    Looking for one and trading accordingly is a dangerous path.

    JMO.

  104. Poly

    You’ve probably been saying that for a week two! The market isn’t personal like that. The reason you feel that way is exactly because of what you’re doing, waiting until the pain becomes unbearable and you puke your shares. Of course your puking corresponded to a general capitulation allowing for the market to reverse course. That’s why you cut early and fast!
    And who cares if it reverses, there are other trades to come!

  105. pimaCanyon

    Silver to 39 looks likely IMHO. Maybe 40 or 41.

    39 is not all that far away from today’s price, but why ride ZSL down any further than it is right now? It may not stop at 39, may go all the way to 41.

    –IF– you want to step back in in the future and try a short, you would want to have signs of a top and we don’t have that today.

    But if and when you want to take another trade, it should be the best trade that’s out there at the time, according to your analysis.

    Don’t get into the thinking that because you lost all that money in silver, you need to get back into silver (short or long) to “make it back”. You want to go into whatever instrument gives you the best odds and best reward to risk ratio at the time. May be silver, may be gold, may be crude or stocks or whatever.

  106. T

    Thanks everyone. Danielle, watch out there’s a turd ferguson blog sight that is very NOT silver trading. Not the one you were talking about. He seems to think silver will just keep on trucking, it sounds like. There doesn’t seem to be any consensus.

  107. fubsy_cooter

    @ DG

    I’m definitely erring on the side of caution. I guess I’m in the mode of learning to wait for the trend. Plus, over the past couple weeks, my trades have lasted appx 24 hours, and I’m not wanting to get into the short term trader mode again. So, I watch from the sidelines. Looking forward to ebing back in the game with a hefty stake.

    f

  108. Mr. T

    T – if I may, DG’s advice is to sell to allow your mind the ability to clearly analyze trades again (he’s right that it’s extremely difficult to trade well if your emotions over-ride your analytical ability – great book BTW DG).

    Your emotion’s goal now is to stop the pain by recouping extensive loses – your goal may be like (I need to quickly regain losses by making 100% on my current portfolio – good luck BTW) and Poly is using cycle analysis, which we subscribe to here. I would like to mention that silver hit its 50 & 200 DMAs today, which could be of significance. You may want to wait it out a day or two more to see if hitting those DMAs is of any significance. IMHO if it continues to move higher the next day or two, bail with extreme prejudice…

    Another humble opinion is silver is riding gold’s wave, the $ is due to decline to finish out the cycle, which will likely keep them truckin’ up another 5% then go into the D-wave decline. So… If you are still a gambling man (or woman), silver IMHO will drop like a stone when the dollar turns and gold retreats, and you may recoup a small portion… In these markets now, there are no long term holds… Things of significance are changing daily… That alone may give you direction to sell ZSL, follow gold’s trend, with the idea of selling when gold hits 1600 (or whatever Gary’s target becomes). I’m sure you will now never short silver/gold in the D-Wave knowing the pain of breaking the golden rule of never ever ever ever ever short a bull market). Since gold is demonstrating an upswing, go to DGP instead of ZSL and watch it VERY closely because this is likely gold’s last run up for a while. Hope this helps, but remember… No one can predict the future, and anyone that says they can, is self-delusional.

  109. fubsy_cooter

    WMP,
    Yesterday didn’t tick to a new cycle low so we would need to tick above the high on Monday, I believe. Since we ticked below the cycle low today, a tick above today’s high now puts the swing low in play. Does that make sense?
    f

  110. whitebear

    T,

    My target on AGQ is like 205ish, maybe up to 219 if they stretch.

    I wouldn’t lose your position in ZSL. I’m looking to buy some tomorrow…low 16’s

  111. Mike

    T – I agree with DG for the reason of where your mindset is emotionally. It has nothing to do with where you think silver is or isn’t going. You can always make a case for bulls or bears at any given time to justify the bad trade.

    In poker this is called playing on tilt – everything is going against you and you start making more and more irrational decisions out of as a result.

    Cut losses now, walk away, take a break (for a while), gather your senses and then come back later when you can think more clearly.

    Sorry for the losses, by the way.

  112. Bob loves Hawaii

    Just got back in from solar bids. SPY looks very constructive on the 15 minute. It held above yesterdays low, and formed a IHS, and at the close retested it. Measured move is the 133.85, which just coincidently ties to the downtrend line. also, I doubt people will short SPY going into a long weekend. I wil close my trade if it hits it by Friday.

    I’ll post a chart when I get back from the gym.

  113. I've Eaten Silver

    Life is easier, much easier, not shorting the PM bull. Simple as that.

    Remember Gary stating ZSL was a terrible idea? His good idea was a put assuming you’d lose it all but with the chance of a 10X gain.

  114. ...at ease

    I’ve Eaten Silver, I believe you are correct on the ZSL, I bought SLV PUTs and am deep in the red.
    I bought them knowing that would be the most I lose, but give me exposure to the drop if it happened. Bought it and forgot about it.

  115. Ryan

    DG,
    I bought more SPY near the EOD as well as GLD in the morning. I know you’re not sure how long you’re going to be holding them for but it would be greatly appreciated if you post if you’re thinking of sell. Thanks in advance!

  116. whitebear

    Risk management people!

    Learn that and you won’t get taken out of the game. ZSL is an excellent trading vehicle, just like AGQ.

    Blah Blah Blah…

    If you’ve literally looked at a million charts, guess what happens?

  117. Edwin

    T – eek that sucks man. Cut it loose and put it into something less volatile. perhaps SPY/QQQ. the game has only begun for those day 1 of it awaking from the dead.

    position size matters, so don’t go to large with your bets if you’re not confident with the setup.

    silver can potentially tag 39, dollar hasn’t dropped yet either

  118. james r

    T,

    I would go straight to cash and wait until the A wave begins.

    Silver may continue to rise until resistance about $39.0 or retrace even higher to $42.0 (61.8% fib I think).

    Fortunately for us we have a lot of time to make up any losses or add tremendous gains to our portfoilio since this bull has a ways to go.

    Myself, I am giving my brain a rest and stopped trading until the A wave. Yes, I may be missing out on some short term gains but the risk/reward ratio is not worth it to me. Also I’m just mentally tired from looking a the markets.

    James

  119. David

    T,

    Cut it loose. There’s no telling how high silver could go before it collapses again.

    The most important thing is what you do after you sell. If you decide you want to continue this, then you have to learn risk management and position sizing, or you will eventually go broke.

    If you read Market Wizards, and you should, you’ll see that most great traders have been through a similar experience that led them to really learn to practice risk control as well as to not trade emotionally.

    The best advice, of course, is to not trade at all. Avoid 2x ETFs and simply make long-term investments in GDXJ, etc, then go old turkey. This is how the great fortunes will be made in this bull market.

  120. Edwin

    daniele – on my calc 39 is the top for silver. if it goes beyond that it’s run away.

    silver is driven by gold sentiment and a big load of new specs . the bounce out for 2 weeks should be the strongest for PMs.

    so lets see how this plays out…

  121. coolkevs

    From Kevin Depew at Minyanville:
    Demark Monthly Sell Setup is still in effect for all the major indices through the end of August. Yearly – we are emerging from a 12-year SELL signal recorded in 1999 – Depew believes we are on the backside of the financial crisis due to the dispersion he is seeing in stocks that wasn’t present in 2006-2010.
    SP futures down level is 1308.60, with SPX equivalent at 1312.62. With an up close today and close below those levels tomorrow, we qualify a break of that level and see more downside.
    CRB index qualified a break but has worked its way up to resistance at 340 – more downside to come??? SLV ETF qualified a break of the down level at 36.07 but it rallied above there today.
    DAILY Buy Signal good for 12 days recorded in AAPL. DAILY Sell signal recorded in CF.
    Take these with a grain of salt – I myself like Gary’s big up move off the swing low…remember, I am still looking for that 72.50 level on the Dollar…

  122. ...at ease

    T,
    I lost twice big on SLW. I won’t ever trade it again, because I know the tendancy will be for me to try and get it back. Instead I cut my losses and just realized that one may work for others (old Turkey), however has not worked for me. Let it go and move on. It will do wonders for your head to clear that off your screen. And that was one of Gary’s favorites.
    You win some you lose some. This may just be your lost one.

  123. Poly

    “Any time you find yourself hoping in this business, the odds are that you are on the wrong path — or that you did something stupid that should be corrected.

    Unfortunately hope is a money-loser in the investment business. This is counter-intuitive but true. Hope will keep you riding a stock that is headed down. Hope will keep you from taking a small loss and instead, allowing that small loss to develop into a large loss.

    In the stock market hope get in the way of reality, hope gets in the way of common sense. One of the first rules in investing is “Don’t take the big loss.” In order to do that, you’ve got to be willing to take a small loss.”

    – Richard Russell

  124. Ryan

    T,
    I learned the hard way trying to hold on to the 2X ETF’s on the wrong side. I’m sorry to hear that and I know exactly how you feel. I would strongly suggest what others have said and just cut your loses and start fresh. I know how emotionally draining it is to be sitting on heavy losses. Also, if Gary is right and gold rallies, it’s hard not to think silver won’t follow. However, with that said, you’ve already held on for so long and if you really want to hold on a bit longer, you have to have a number in your head and sell if silver doesn’t drop. If you can’t do that, then you should just cut the losses right now.

  125. Le Fou

    Here’s an important question for the more experienced members of this board.

    What do you use for a trade journal?

    Do you keep track of all your trades and go back and analyze them? How often do you do that?

    Do you do it electronically, or just write them down? Do you put the reason making each trade as you make the trade?

    What about trades that you decide not to make? Do you keep track of those as well?

    Any resources that you suggest I look at?

    Very interested in what you have to say.

    Best,
    Le Fou

  126. ...at ease

    I got a call today from my metals seller, he is pushing silver at the currentl prices if that means anything to anyone. I told him, I was strictly a gold lover and would be back in a month or so.

  127. Le Fou

    T,

    Very sorry for your losses. I’d be willing to bet that virtually all of us have been there. I know I have. I have lost A LOT of money.

    I blew out my account trading with another blogger. That was my fault not his. I got cocky, and thought that my success was due to my own cleverness. It was a post of Gary’s that described exactly what I was doing wrong that convinced me that perhaps Gary could show me how to become a better trader.

    When the market is going up is not the time to discover how great a trader I am. So, at least for me, the learning comes now. When people here tell you to “take a breather,” I hope what they mean is to step back from trading and analyze what you’re doing.

    Go through all the documents in the subscriber’s section. Try to learn them well enough to apply them yourself. TheDocument has some really good stuff, too. Read some books, take a course, do whatever you need to do to avoid repeating the behaviors and/or attitudes that got you in trouble.

    As for ZSL, I, too, believe that silver will go into the tank. I just don’t know when, and from what level. So, why not just get out for now, and if there’s a clear signal that silver is tanking, then you can decide if it’s wise to get back in. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve correctly called the market direction, but lost money because I’ve mistimed my entry.

    Whatever you decide to do, don’t let it get you down. Often life’s best lessons are learned by the worst mistakes. It’s not possible to avoid them, but it is possible to learn not to repeat them.

    I’m no genius. I am
    Le Fou

  128. ...at ease

    Le Fou,
    This is my first year trading.
    Since I travel and move around alot, I have to be able to locate all in one place my information.
    I use notepad on my computer for all current trades and calculations and current notes, quotes or recommendations at the time of trade in progress.
    I list the trades I want to take per my Risk Reward Ratio and tentative sell prices and stop loss triggers, and note if things change, watch notes, etc.
    These notepads tend to get long, so once I am out of a group of trades, I start a new notepad jouranl and file the other one away by month. I consider it my Tax Trading Journal.

    Profits/Losses are sent to my accountant from the broker statements since I trade 5 accounts. My aim is to concentrate on the trades to come out green and let my accountant tell me how I performed overall. I can only keep track of so much in my head, so chose to trade and let the accountant do the bookkeeping.

    Thanks for bringing this up, after reading this, I realize, I need to send myself on email my trade notes, just in case this computer crashes or gets lost. 🙂

  129. Le Fou

    at ease,

    Thanks for that more in depth account. I have only one account, and no bookkeeper, but I like your approach. I’ve tried various logs, but nothing has been that helpful so far.

    Thanks for your input,
    Le Fou

  130. MrMiyagi

    Silver is rising again like it did at the end of April; 1$+ moves a day, holding overnight and what have you.
    There is also a second wave of euphoria starting to build at this point. Not as it was at 43$+ but I can feel the dollar signs in people’s mind-calculators.

    This is my take; I could be way off base here;
    A lot of people bought in at 45-47$ levels (SLV or physical). They hung on to it all the way down to 32-33$, didn’t sell into the first bounce at 39$, maybe bought some more at 34$ or so and have losses with average break even of around 40-41$.
    I think there is a good chance that if silver goes through 39$ and to 40.50$-41$, a lot of people may decide it’s time to break even and sell off. This may coincide with gold being in the 1570$ region.

    This is my take, I’m no pro, don’t quote me, don’t follow me, don’t blame me. Grain of salt bla bla bla.

  131. 86d4life

    T,
    your not alone man. I went through the exact same last summer; double triple inverse ass whoopin… Not cool. Amazing the relief I felt when I just pulled the trigger, locked in the loss, shut off the box and took a few days off. Clear your head. After looking back(and reading it from many of the greats) controlling loss` is the major key here. My resolution from here on in is to never ever ever never(where have we heard this before lol) trade without stops. Never! If I never allow my principal to get touched, I can`t go broke! Period! And there will always be another biggie on the way. Yesterday, DG gave a great run down on how he goes about the whole stop process and what I came away with is he is feeling his way through the process. Floating along on the current so to speak. But he`s been at it 30 years too. That`s the kind of trader I want to be but that`s not the kind of trader I am. Yet. Until then there are stops to fend off the double triple inverse a.w. Hang in there and good luck.

  132. Bob loves Hawaii

    Mr.Miyagi, I am looking at a years worth of volume at price, and most volume is below our price. In fact, once we clear 38.40 area, the volume is quite light. The balance of the trapped longs are at the current price area. FYI. Bob

  133. Cory

    The thing about the market is that unless it is trending, you can always look at it from a bull or bear case.

    SLV for example right now:

    -50% retracement of C wave
    -Touching 20DMA
    -Filled gap at 37.05
    -Multiple gaps below
    -Lots of investors above waiting to get back to even
    -50DMA just above
    -Rebound off of parabolic move

    And I could be dead wrong and have to sell in 1-2 days…that’s trading

    Old Turkey in a trending market is the way to make money, these are tough times even for the best, Gary talks about it all the time. Recognize you’re wrong and trade another day.

  134. ...at ease

    Thanks Gary, good news around on the report for our portfolio. 🙂 Hope you are feeling better soon and back to climbing rocks. Get some sleep and let your body recoup.

  135. ...at ease

    Cory,
    I was reading your SLV input.
    I have a question for your concerning OLD Turkey buys on GLD.
    Would one sell at current profit highs and buy for OLD Turkey on the drops going forward?
    Any insights appreciated.

  136. Aaron

    Oil acted like a champ today, above 100, always seems to fuel commodities higher. Silver should get a boost out of the oil run and the SnP climb, 41-42 next week should be a lock.
    Bias; Silver calls.

  137. Poly

    Aaron,

    Silver sure is catching a bid last few days. If this RT cycle gets towards the highs, $42 is a lock, IMO. Maybe an intra day $42 or so. I’ve add recently to SLV calls. Nothing crazy of course, but the GLD calls have given the luxury to swing a little here.

    Gary, good to see you warming to a 3 yr in the fall. That 3 yr low just didn’t meet the expectations all round. Either way, a gold IT cycle low between now an that possibility anyway :). Good report BTW, the SPY trade today was profitable enough. Thanks.

  138. Cory

    At Ease,

    Old Turkey going forward, unless the dollar breaks to new lows and we go parabolic again:

    Long GLD 6-8% (1625-1650 Area) Before D Wave

    Long SLV 8-12% (40-41 Area) Before Resumption of D Wave

    I hate shorting, but I think shorting silver will be better than shorting gold because of its thinner market and industrial uses etc. that cause things such as margin hikes.

    Like Gary says, Old Turkey ended when silver fell off the cliff. A trader mentality is necessary right now. Expect to be wrong often if you dip your feet in the pool right now.

  139. ...at ease

    Thanks Cory, I sold for profits at the last top on GLD, so just was wondering if I should stash and go Old Turkey at the A wave for Old Turkey or hang onto recent purchases as I have Gary’s recommended porfolio, and shorting SLV Puts.

  140. DG

    BookGuy: You own TBT puts? You are betting Treasurys rally? I would think Treasurys would decline if the dollar drops and others assets rally…?

  141. Gary

    Can’t say for sure. It will depend on if the dollar still has another leg down in the fall.

    We can’t know that unless the dollar’s intermediate cycle becomes left translated and moves below the May low.

  142. T.J. Rand

    Gary-

    Glad the surgery went well.

    A quick observation on tonight’s report – I’m not sure that the dollar swing high is in quite yet. I show May 23 with the recent high of 76.37 and a low of 75.70…and today the low was 75.75. So it is close and hopefully will break through tomorrow…

  143. Gary

    I believe you are right. The intra day high on Monday was 76.37, Yesterday it was 76.36.

    So yes the dollar has to move below Monday’s low not Tuesday’s.

  144. funmike

    The dollar has broken through tonight. Remember the that silver hit close to 50 after hours.

    P.S. Glad your surgery went well Gary.

  145. T.J. Rand

    Yep- should pop through tomorrow for sure.

    The gyrations of the dollar are really interesting, and not a little bit sad. You can already see the seeds of QE3 being sown in different places.

  146. Poly

    Gold/Silver wants to move, IMO. $1,527-30 offer the last of the resistance before the highs. Not based on anything but a feel for the tape.

    Dollar capable of rolling over, trapped longs well out, sentiment reset, new based built and formed and a RT cycle has retail/spec interest purking. The fold talking Call options gain 🙂

  147. MW

    Gary,
    I thought you boxed yourself in with your prediction that the euro was going to get some good news. You really are good at this stuff.

  148. Gary

    I should be able to do some light pulls in a couple of days. Probably won’t do any overhead lifts until I get back from Switzerland.

  149. Poly

    Yeah Bob, gold/dollar cycle is a real nice setup, although short. It’s a surgical trade, swift, in an out. Otherwise lurks the summer and the IT lows.

    Good night.

  150. TZ(8155)

    Gold futures contract (this is a large month) rolls over starting tomorrow into friday so we are likely to get a hit lower and an entry before resuming to climb (assuming that happens, of course.)

    I’m still looking for a low risk entry.

  151. Gary

    The low risk entry was last Tuesday when gold traded down to $1471. At that point your stop was only $9 away. Your risk was only .6%.

  152. ALEX

    Gary

    That was another really good report.
    Also glad that your procedure went well…your Matterhorn trip is too close to have to sit on the sidelines.

  153. Ryan

    Gary,
    Glad everything went smoothly. What change did you make to the model portfolio? It looks the same to me?

  154. Gary

    Bullion trader asked if now was a good time to buy gold and I responded that I had already made that change in the model portfolio.

  155. DG

    BullionTrader: When I have missed the right entry point I just buy less…but buy. Then if it goes up at least you are there and can add on dips. If it goes down you can buy cheaper as you will not be facing a big drawdown on your first modest purchase. But hold your nose and buy some or you will just watch the whole move.

  156. Jayhawk

    T-

    How big a position are we talking about with ZSL? Is this a trading account, IRA, money you need to live off, etc? Did you, gulp, use leverage??

    Sorry to hear about this and the others might be right for sure, but if this is a 10% position, it might change the position.

    A few weeks back, I cut my new addition miners for a 40K loss, which for me was large and painful. Once I did it, it did do wonders form my mental outlook and I was able to step away for several days to clear my head.

    I’m right there with james…mentally just need to get away from charts for several weeks.

  157. fubsy_cooter

    With swing high in USD today, I’ll add DGP tomorrow. Risking 1% of portfolio if stopped out.

    If SPY forms swing low tomorrow, I’ll do the same with SSO.

    f

  158. hkc

    Would appreciate if the experts on the blog, including Gary, help with my following question: just for clarification, are we now officially off the D-wave, and back to the last daily cycle of the C-wave? which would be the “supposedly” gold parabola? or are we just wiggling on the way down in the D-wave? Thanks much.

  159. daniele

    hkc,
    IMHO, i think that if gold (as we all are aspecting) make new highs is cause there is an ultimate lag up on this C-Wave.Officially D-wave is not becomed yet.Especially now that dollar is due to make daily cycle bottom.
    I’m waiting for that.

  160. Gary

    Ah if only there was some way to know for certain ahead of time. Unfortunately without a crystal ball we can’t know for certain what’s in store in the future.

    My best guess is that gold will have one more daily cycle up and the next intermediate correction will probably only be a normal intermediate correction.

    The parabolic C-wave move will come in the fall as the dollar puts in one more intermediate cycle down into a final 3 year cycle low.

    Then we will get the D-wave decline into the spring and early summer of next year.

    That’s my current guess, which could be completely wrong and the D-wave comes just as soon as the current daily cycle tops. We won’t know until the correction is underway.

    If the intermediate correction becomes really severe this summer and drives gold significantly below the 200 DMA then it will become obvious that the D-wave is happening this year.

  161. hkc

    Gary and Daniele:

    Thanks for the quick responses, especially to Gary, since I thought you’d be resting now after your surgery.

    So the 3 year dollar low actually could stretch for one more year? and is it determined by the magnitude, not so much by the timing then? (I am learning to ask the right questions for myself…)

    Gary, hope you recover soon without any pain! Thanks!

  162. hkc

    Gann360 and Alex:

    So if the dollar breaks down below the shoulder of the IHS, what does that mean? Thanks, that was a very telling chart!

  163. Gary

    Not quite another year just into the fall. The last three yearly cycle lows have all occurred in late fall. It’s possible this one will too instead of bottoming in May.

    A three year cycle duration of 3 years and 6 months is within the normal timing band.

    So far the shoulder just feels like a hard bruise. I haven’t had to take any pain medication. I really hate that stuff. I would rather just deal with the pain as long as it’s bearable.

  164. hkc

    Gary:

    Also, once all the swings are in place, would appreciate if you could update the stop triggers! Thanks much.

  165. Eamonn

    Gary, you said: “My best guess is that gold will have one more daily cycle up and the next intermediate correction will probably only be a normal intermediate correction.”
    What is you best guess for equities? Don’t you think they are heading south after this daily cycle is over?

  166. Gary

    My best guess is that the cyclical bull will top sometime in June or early July. But we won’t have confirmation of that until an intermediate cycle low gets violated.

  167. Eamonn

    I find it hard to understand how gold could have one more daily cycle up as you say without the stock market being included in that strength too. Given the weak signals the stock market has been emitting for some time now one would have thought its next daily cycle as well as gold’s next daily cycle would fail, particularly given the US dollar index appears to have put in an intermediate low and its current daily cycle is right translated.

  168. Gary

    But the stock market is expected to rally soon. If the premarket strength holds into the open we will get the swing we’re looking for.

    Again don’t confuse a rising dollar index as true strength in the dollar. QE2 is still active. Until that ends a rising dollar index just means Europe is temporarily out printing Bernanke. It doesn’t mean that deflation has taken hold again.

  169. Eamonn

    I dunno, maybe I’ve got my wires crossed here. Things just seem a little foggy. My understanding is that we’ll see gold set its current intermediate cycle high close to the time the dollar finds its current daily cycle low. Gold will then be primed for 4-6 weeks of decline.

  170. Gary

    Correct.

    The stock market may top in that period also or it may continue higher. Stock aren’t nearly as deep in their intermediate cycle as gold. They could resist a rising dollar (which isn’t’ really rising) until after QE2 ends at the end of June.

  171. Eamonn

    OK, thanks Gary. I want to say its very good of you answer all the questions you get here, especially from dumb asses like me! If I had your acumen and nous I’d probably say to myself to hell with it and go and make my own money by myself. So, I want to thank you for that.

  172. Eamonn

    daniele, I watched some of your videos! I love the Raven. I have read that they are very intelligent. Where did you get him and how did you tame him?

  173. daniele

    i bought from a breeder of parrots near Milano.He had also a couple of raven.It is very very very smart and intelligent.Like a pet.I’ve red that they have an intelligence like a baby of 3-4 years old.Very curious too.You just to feed and take care of it, as you can o with a dog or cat.The main difference is that they are very very proud and fairs.So you can treat them simple like a pet.They see you as their partner not as master.It’s a big difference, really.

  174. Eamonn

    I don’t know if you have the space Daniele, but goats are very smart too. They will keep you entertained. Very curious

  175. Gary

    Hmm I wonder if the silver coil is already reversing. And if it is will it take gold down with it. This is one tricky market.

  176. Gary

    Like I said holding times are going to be very much shortened now that the silver parabola has broken and it’s not going to catch me twice.

    Besides the real money is going to be made at the next intermediate bottom.

  177. Eamonn

    I am all in cash since the silver parabola collapsed. One thing I continue to be puzzled by and slightly troubled by is the non participation of the miners up until very recently. Why is it that the miners didn’t come out to play until very recently? Could it have been higher oil prices? Seems unlikely. I would like to know just so I could fit it into my future framework of expectations when it will be time to go long again on gold and gold miners again.

  178. Poly

    We’ve had a $50 run in days, $7 down, now that the retailers jumped in, should not shock anybody. I doubt a $0.80 silver move would drag anything down.

  179. Haggerty

    This looks normal to me. The dollar is down hard this morning. Maybe Gold will reverse the early morning weakness. I have a 33.50 stop on my GDXJ positions. Think I’m just going to let it work.

  180. Bob loves Hawaii

    Not surprised at 38.40 as resistance for silver. Above this level is low volume. also, Euro up and with it some safe haven gold and silver selling. The U.S. will buy today.

    I am wrong if gold cannot maintain 148.14.

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