A Sunday night post as been added to the website.
Is the plan for tomorrow early still on, or is it on hold?
Nice report Gary… Somebody more experienced than me here once mentioned using Andrew’s pitchforks..
At the last daily cycle low I drew a pitchfork for Gold and Silver and the accuracy of S/R is quite intriguing:
oouppss… looks like my gold chart has some stop orders in it… please disregard them and follow Gary’s stops!
Thanks Gary. Given tonight’s insanity, the report was very much appreciated.
Thank you for posting Gary…much appreciated 🙂
I guess Osama doesn’t affect cycles!As I said a few lines ago, the $ Index hasn’t gone through the roof.
I noticed that on the leg up silver normally 25 dma acts as support. I think it will not go lower than the 25 dma.
As it is the current intraday low is 15% off the recent high.
So I added spot silver at 43.5. Will add more if it gets back down to 43.
Wow…what a report! At a time it was needed the most. Thank you!
In one of Gary’s earlier comment, he said he would never sell into a cycle low, and his new post more or less confirms that this is under way, so I don’t think he will sell tomorrow. Also, he will post in real time any trade he makes, so hopefully we’ll know then.
Gary, please enlighten us explicitly! Thanks!
I agree, but we’re not at a cycle low. We are just staring the dip into the cycle low (maybe).
Also, he is not doing just a straight sell as we all know. It is a switch.
I do see some things in the report that contradict what he posted on the blog earlier, to the effect that I believe he is still carrying it out early am.
Looking at the daily chart of silver, IMO this correction will likely drop to the 39 – 40 range. It may stop at 41, but I’d give 40 and even 39 higher odds.
Gold’s not as obvious to me, but 1490 – 1520 looks likely.
We don’t sell into daily cycle lows, instead, use them as buying opps. Good luck all!
Gary / DG / Others:
When the D wave hits, how about going long ZSL with 2-5% of portfolio instead of OTM SLV puts?
As a side note, is this Black Swan event of Osama being dead the good news on which this cyclic bull tops? News on terror cannot possibly get better than this!
Gary said in his blog post earlier
“I won’t be making any decisions before the market even opens. However now the potential reward has again swung in favor of silver as the move back to $50 is much larger percentage wise than a move from here to $1650 for gold.If you have cash you are now better off putting it in silver.”
He’s not doing anything until he sees how things shape up in the morning.
In this rally in silver since last August, the pattern has been for the daily cycle to put in a low at the 20 MA on the daily chart and then move up slowly, hugging that 20 MA for 2 – 5 days.
The 20 MA for silver right now is roughly 42.86 on the futures contract. Eyeballing spot silver on Kitco, it looks like the low for tonight in spot was roughly 42.30 — so silver has already gone below the 20 Ma by about 50 cents.
I wouldn’t be surprised if tonight’s low marks the daily cycle low for silver, and then it hugs the 20 MA for 2 or 3 days and then starts to move up away from it in the new daily cycle.
I guess we know why gold and silver were going down. Obviously some folks knew that this was going to be announced. 🙂 Martin Armstrong often says that cycles tend to be able to predict major events.
TOS upped the margin requirement on their mini-silver futures contract to $6,007, twice the exchange requirement. I chatted with a CSR and was assured that I would get a surprise liquidation, but I could get a margin call tomorrow with two days to meet it.
My oh my. These are interesting times!
Arrrrg. Blogger needs an editing function. Meant to say I WOULDN’T get liquidated.
I agree JH
Gary took stops off too…not shown on blog…for info
I will never sell into a cycle low. Not to avoid a draw down, and not to convert silver to gold.
If you don’t see a portfolio change then I didn’t do anything. People you know this, why do you continue to ask this same question over and over.
Daily cycle lows almost never last one day so don’t get it into your heads that this will be over in one day.
Also you can throw away your charts your trend lines and your moving averages. They are worthless right now and will just cause you to make a stupid mistake based on something with no predictive value.
Just let the correction play out and buy once a swing low is formed.
She was assassinated shortly have making the statement re. OBL. It was on YouTube. (It was after 9/11.)
Thanks for posting. It def settled my emotions.
Benjamin your pitchfork drawing makes me want to use the rest of my dry powder to buy AGQ.
what makes you so confident that it is the “latter” that we will see?
so if the next daily cycle is left translated, what is the timeframe for which you expect the D wave to begin?
I’m confused. Gold leads the way and silver follows. Gold closed at $1565 on Friday and given tonight’s events only slipped to $1540 and is now trading about $1551. So the move a $25 drop is still within the runaway scenario isn’t it? Why are we talking all about silver and what its going to do?!
I purchased gld options earlier when gold was at 1535. Should I sell them with a profit and buy call options on slv or slw while it still has a lot of potential?
Not,Because there’s no way the greatest C-wave of the entire bull market tops with a whimper. This is going to top with the largest parabolic move of any C-wave to date. Silver has already shown what is possible.
Now it’s gold’s turn to follow the silver parabola.
Niv,I can’t answer that one for you. You know what I’m doing with my portfolio and you will know the minute I make any changes. If you want to do something different then make a plan and take your best shot. Then have the discipline to follow your plan.
Off to bed so I can get a workout in the morning. Hopefully this will continue and give us a recognizable cycle low.
if I understood correctly, yesterday you mentioned in your report that the PMs might top out earlier than what you had expected. In today’s report however you sound convinced that the C wave will likely last for quite a bit longer. You are also raising your targets on gold somewhat, while I think that yesterday you mentioned that gold might end its run prematurely.
Is there a discrepancy between your outlook from Saturday to Sunday, or did I misread anything?
To me today’s spot price action almost seems like confirmation of the caution you expressed in yesterday’s report, where you were concerned that the run could end early; the only surprise now is that PMs seem to be tanking on the news that Osama bin Laden is dead rather than on the unemployment report.
My question is, what has changed that is causing you to alter your view from yesterday’s caution to today’s optimism?
Would be great if you could answer that. Thank you!
Good post, keeping the faith.
Thank you for the post. I really misinterpreted some of your earlier posts. I appreciates tonight’s report!
Last week I went ahead and converted 30% of my Silver position to Gold.
Should I exit Gold and move back to Silver now or let it remain same.
I will try to answer it for you since I read his update this evening. Simply put, the difference is that this decline has offered up a discernablee cycle bottom. Gold is no longer in ‘run away move’ which disregard cycle length. Now that cycle bottom is forming this week, he can make a better forecast as to what the top would look like. And his conclusion is that we have another parabolic up move over the next cycle.
Does it make sense to you? I am not a cycle expert but since Gary probably went to bed, I’d like to help out.
Reminds me of the japan earthq week: I was nervous as hell but you were rightly confident in cycles and your experience.
Great report- I will try to remember that week as we go thru this week
Hi Gary – nice report.
Hopefully you’re feeling better now – and maybe you lost enough weight now to do a 5.12d in Oregon, eh? 😉
Re: the dollar cycle in your report, is it still within the statistical mean of how cycles work for the dollar? I would have thought that’s it’s too late now to have a cycle dollar change.
Also (general q) why (someday) consider DGP, instead of UGL? DGP is DB’s ETN, not PowerShares ETF which is UGL (sister to AGQ). Is it because DGP has more liquidity?
I think the difference is that the dollar still has yet to make a new 3 year cycle low.
I think if Gold would have extended its gains this week and Dollar made a new 3 year low then we would have been looking for the exits, because there would be nothing left driving this C wave advance in PM’s.
Well looks like Gold hit it’s cup n handle target on the chart and had it’s correction, painful as it is to watch, it was expected. This chart doesn’t have the correction day on it yet.
Hope you’re all enjoying the draw down, I’m not 🙂
Sometime I wish I could just draw a chart and press fast forward to get past the ugly bits…..
From Market Watch:May 2, 2011, 3:05 a.m. EDT
“U.S. stock futures rally after bin Laden’s deathDollar jumps; crude-oil, silver futures slump”
Good morning. As much as I hate to see my portfolio go down, I am glad we may have a cycle bottom, for it means a potentially spectacular finale. Since I am all in, I will ride the wave… at least I have no decisions to make!
Geez still the dollar can’t get any kind of bounce. If the dollar continues to collapse the expected (and hoped for) daily cycle correction could come right back off the table.
Bill,I would suggest sticking with DGP. It is much more liquid than UGL.
V,If you already have gold then just leave it as is. It’s probably a tossup at this point. Both gold and silver have come back strongly from the lows and the dollar can’t find a bid at all.
If the dollar continues to collapse this week then I wouldn’t expect this corrective action to last very long. Heck it might not even last into the open.
Congrats to you folks from the USA on getting Osama bin Laden
What do you all make of the fact that commercial traders’ short positions in silver have dropped to their lowest levels in many months…this is the ‘smart money’ after all!
Thanks for the update Gary, it’s all very clear. Let’s see what the week brings.
IMO, a decreased short position will likely mean that there is a belief that silver has a greater chance of rising in the future, and that any short covering will be more muted.
It’s all relative, since I believe, that the short book is still good sized.
Discreet,Someone commented on this earlier. The COT’s are only predictive at bottoms when the Blees rating is above 90. Other than that trying to read something into every little wiggle is a fruitless endeavor.
Sometimes a top will come once open interest hits all time highs. But then it can stay at that level for a month or more so it isn’t an actionable timing tool.
Nice post Gary.
My only concern is the dollar IT. Is there enough time and juice in that to support a parabolic gold cycle? The IT is already stretched.
Gary has said – and correct me if I’m wrong – that the metals will not top until we see a panic low in the dollar. Period. I’m being cautious this week but until the dollar really gets creamed the metals will have upside.
This is just another guy that shall have to cover and add to the next big move up in silver! LOL
Now that we know what the silver miners were discounting the last couple weeks, I might have to buy some back if they can show strength relative to the metal. No rush, but I don’t think we should overlook them when it’s time to buy.
Good Morning SB with your words of wisdom:)
Gary, I am trying to understand the end of this intermediate cycle as you portray it in your new post. You outline two scenarios with charts based on a current daily cycle correction. The first involves one more daily cycle but the second looks to involve two more daily cycles (one RTL and the other LTL). Am I interpreting this correct and if so, how does that affect the future timing bands for the end of this intermediate cycle?
One other point, is the back end of the final daily cycle of this intermediate cycle the dreaded DWave hence the LTL requirement as you stated?
Good morning to you, traderlady. 🙂
SB, is everything still ok?
Everything is OK and the only decision for me is when and how much to buy. I’ll observe th open and plan to get heavily long into a daily cycle low if it presents.
In case it does not materialize and we begin a slow march higher, I intend to put another 2% of portfolio at risk today (bringing me to 4% total risk). Bigger purchases to follow later in the week.
I only have NUGT and physical, but even if I were longed up to my eyeballs, selling into this decline would not be an option. 🙂
Thanks SB. silver making me nervous. Cycles not behaving, losing control of the situation
I hate trading off news events as they’re impossible to quantify, but if I’m not mistaken, this weakness could persist into the close as these margin hikes force sales by the end of the day.
Nahh, you haven’t lost control. Can’t control the market anyway, a trader can only control his reactions to it.
Expect heightened volatility for the rest of the C-wave.
Believe me, I don’t believe any of the government BS about 9/11. I just didn’t know this about bin Laden that he may have been dead already for many years. Thanks for that link.
Paul,I was pointing out that all intermediate cycles end with a left translated daily cycle. That isn’t possible with the current cycle as it extremely right translated. Once this bottoms then we have to see either a cycle that fails to make a new high and rolls over in less than 10 days or we see a spike to marginal new highs that tops quickly and rolls over into a left translated cycle.
I don’t believe for a second that the largest C-wave of this entire bull market will top with only two daily cycles up. I also don’t believe this will top before gold and miners make a big parabolic move. That leaves the second scenario (second chart in the report) as the most likely way this will unfold.
Either way we need a recognizable daily cycle correction so we can take the runaway move off the table. I don’t want to deal with a runaway move because my cycle tool becomes ineffective and it becomes hard to spot the timing band for a top.
SB, can’t understand why silver looked sick last Friday while gold rocketed. That, and the breakdown of the cycle analysis/ theory with no cycle low. When I can’t explain something it bothers me.
Emmonn,When you get nervous and start questioning the big picture you end up making emotional mistakes that cost you money.
We didn’t know the reason for the move of Friday, but we do now.
I can promise with absolute certainty that the best traders/investors (with the deepest pockets) are not doing anything but making buy lists. It doesn’t mean we turn around immediately, but only the inexperienced and emotional traders will sell into this.
It really is not a viable option, even if we go lower first. The bull will let you out.
Miners were the tell over the last few weeks, so let’s keep an eye on them. When they begin to show relative strength vs. silver, it might foreshadow the end of the pullback as well.
Trust me Gary, I am your number 1 fan and I really look up to you for the way you lead this blog and do your work. You are a rare human being. All I’m saying is that I’m nervous, but I will always follow what you are doing. Lost far too much money trying to be cute and the Market making a moron of me.
Wednesday we have GG and HL reporting. That may tell something???
I’d hate to take shares off others here that hand them over. Let me take somebody else’s shares off them, but not fellow SMT’ers!
Alright, I’ll give the posts a break. I’m just getting excited at the prospects. 🙂
Thank you SB. I look up to you too 😉 You strike me as someone who has had years of grizzly experience in the market
Bankers are not tipping their hand this morning. We have made it past the 8am and 9am potential “raid” spots and is looking more like a “back to business as usual” up trend.
GaryYou said you’d never sell into a daily cycle correction; therefore you won’t convert to DGP & GLD call this morning.
The question I have is: Does this mean that the plan you had to convert silver to gold is not off the table for the remainder of this C-Wave finale?
What I’m really asking you is: Was your original plan to convert to Gold based on the fact that it was a runaway move in gold, but now with the daily cycle correction on the way that plan is off the table for good til the C-Wave TOP and you’ll remain in Silver til the TOP?
And by the way, thank you for the great report last night 🙂
AEM and GG just went flat pre market. This is a hopeful early indication.
Never mind early morning chop.
MG,My original plan was to convert to avoid a possible extreme correction in silver close to or at the top of the C-wave.
I think gold has one more complete daily cycle higher before this tops. I will wait and see how silver acts as the metals rally out of the next cycle low. If it pops back very strongly to $50 very quickly, then the odds are probably high that silver will easily cut through $50 and go much higher.
In that scenario I will hold silver for a while before converting to gold as the percentage gain will be much larger.
SLW 100dma @38.68
I took a small portion of my SLV Call money off the table at the close on Friday. My intent was to move it into GLD calls today.
Will you be giving a signal for those of us who are not all-in with some guidance as what to do with our cash (e.g. watching for lower lows)?
I must confess I don’t entirely understand cycle theory but I follow Gary’s recommendations with great interest. What I don’t understand is with so many events occurring how it’s possible to say with confidence that some sort of cycle event is taking place. This correction in silver is most likely being driven by massive margin increases. Are events like these considered “catalysts” of cycle events, or are cycle events supposed to happen on their own, independent of external events, or does it matter?
Previous margin increases have proven to be buying opportunities but this one was relatively harsh so it may take a few days to play out.
From Bloomberg “Bin Laden’s body was buried at sea, the Associated Press reported, citing an unidentified U.S. official.”
Yeah, sure. Okay, I believe they killed him yesterday. And buried him at sea? WTF??!! He was killed in the MOUNTAINS on the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan and then they flew his body hundreds of miles away to the ocean, so he could be buried at sea??
So his burial spot does not become a “holy place” and a rallying point for jihadists, would be the reasoning.
This comment may not hold long, but I believe the low in gold overnight was all we will get and resumption higher is imminent. I’m betting on it with a stop at the low (on a partial addition to my position.)
It isn’t a huge risk. It’s just what I’m seeing and playing for now.
Noticed what looks like a fairly significant jump in the “gold lease rate” charted on the Kitco site over the last few days. Not sure what the gold lease rate is. What might an increase in this rate mean?
What are your thougts on silver?
Yes that one smells a bit
pima: Bin Laden was killed in a medium-sized city about an hour north of Islamabad. He was in a very secure compound there. He wasn’t killed in the mountains (the so-called “tribal areas”).
If you’re curious about the burial at sea of OBL’s body, read this:
I’ll add that doing it so quickly will likely result in more fodder for the conspiracy theorists.
That post details the Islamic burial traditions.
Pics of his hideout, for those that care:
SLW just broke Japan lows.
The weakness we are seeing here (i’m talking gold) is expected. We should be at new highs no later than tomorrow.
Okay, my bad. However, Islamabad is in NORTHERN Pakistan, very close to the mountains, and more than 1000 kilometers from the ocean. Why fly the body 700 miles to dump it there? The story just sounds fishy to me.
It looks like SLW is going to roughly double-bottom with the last daily cycle low (the Japanese Tsunami low).
pima — I agree that it sounds very fishy.
So would this be the right time to buy those “out of the money puts” on silver”
“The way to handle this? – simple – stay long and buy yourself cheap protection in the form of out-of-the-money Put options in silver itself, or Call options in something like the ProShares Ultrashort Silver, code ZSL. The cost of these options is peanuts compared to what you will save yourself if silver should suddenly tank.”
So to protect my long positions in silver, should I buy “cheap protection in the form of out-of-the-money Put options in silver”
Would it make sense to do this today?
Are you stepping in here? Dollar not rallying though?
Not yet, I’m sitting tight and deciding what to buy.
Seems the big miners are holding up better than juniors, but EXK sure looks great under $10. 🙂
off the trigger, let the positions work.
i go in with no leverage. because one may get killed when timing goes wrong. no one knows the future remember that.
did anyone really think no one wasn’t going to collect on the top trend line last week… haha you got to kidding me. this is profit taking.
let the games begin.
key levels are – 1515 gold, 45 silver
PK,It’s way too early to buy puts on SLV now. We need to get the final daily cycle up. The time to buy puts is after we see gold rally in a massive parabolic move and put in a high volume exhaustion day.
That’s probably still a month away at least.
Silver could easily move to $60 or even $70 by that time.
I have been saying I will not buy miners again having sold them weeks ago. This correction has changed that. If we go down 3-5 days as Gary predicts I may even get a buy on one or two (AG probably!). Even aside from the buy, these prices are getting too juicy to resist. I will buy SLW when this is over, at least. I think this drop is going to make us a lot more money than we’d have made had it not occurred. just sit tight for now. I don’t know cycles anywhere near how well he does, but I do know markets, and he’s right: A move like this is not going to end with a whimper.
What we want to see right now is some follow through to the downside over the next couple of days so we can get a recognizable daily cycle low.
That will set up what I expect will be a truly amazing final cycle up.
What I don’t want to see is for gold and silver to recover today. That would keep the runaway move alive and I don’t want to have to deal with a runaway move because it’s almost impossible to spot the top in real time. And when they do top they tend to crash with no warning.
So in order to avoid getting caught in the crash one has to get out early and sit and watch the market just continue to go up with out them.
You can see how the gov’t creates a lack of trust in itself. It’s been going on for a long time if one just opens their eyes with an open mind.
Gary, for people who just joined your crew and have cash on their hands, what are your suggestions?
When do you think will be time to come in and into what?
I like the idea that someone proposed last week about having the London boys chasing come Tuesday. Now, I didn’t think it would happen this way but if that’s what transpires, I’ll take it.
Driven,Just wait for a swing low. I will post in the nightly report when I think the cycle has bottomed.
I think the miners may have bottomed already. Then the next three days or so gold can drift lower with the miners not making new lows. That relative strength ought to occur before the bottom just like the weakness did before the top. Still best to wait for the cycle bottom though, IMO
the 10.5% silver drop overnight sent some shockwaves.. the usd rally didn’t even last for half a day though..
a little bit of profit taking, higher margin requirements, and perpetual fear happening as i read this
stay the course
Personally, I don’t think gary will agree with me. But, I think last night was a take down by the big boys. It was low volume euro session just like the other sunday. Before this wave it seemed like there were take downs in the euro session all the time…
I’d also like to see the early dip buyers feel a little pain over the next day or two. Buy the immediate dip has worked too well lately.
Matthew: Is there any practical use to determining whether it was a “take down by the big boys” or just normal trading? Should it affect our investment decisions somehow?
Days like this I wish we had the troll meter up!
Now the big boys are taking it up 🙂
I wonder if the hundreds of hedge funds who move amongst hot risk asset had anything to do with it. After bidding up Silver 100% in months, their leveraged futures accounts are up %100’s.
i’m not a day trader. used to be. now with this bull market in metals, i work off intermediate moves.
the only buy i got was back in january.
imho just sit this out.
Can you show me what channels you are watching on gold & silver.
On 4 hour chart, I show silver now back above it’s intermediate channel again.
Looked like a final wash out move on SLW to me. Could go green today.
No practical use for me at this point no. Just an observation. However, I do know people that try to trade with institutional investors. All of the trading we are doing is observational at this point. Cyclical trading is just trading off of past observations. If it were off of solid fundamentals the most prudent thing to do would be to buy hold wait for fundamentals to kick in and sell…
planning to get some GLD July 145 calls, what do you guys think?
EXK 50 DMA & trend line
matthew – of course. no one knows the future.
cycles, technicals, sentiment gets you pretty close to a pretty good trading system. if you know how to read them.
many on this blog are talented traders. Gary, DG, TZ, Poly, SB, to name a few.
no one knows the future.
you are playing with sharks here.
SB: You snooze, you lose 🙂
Geez the dollar is just pathetic.
Do you think we might have to wait until May 6th for the dollar to rise again?
So maybe we’ll end up just “hanging out” again with no definitive move all week till the Jobs Report Friday makes some kind of $bounce?
Here are the two main channels I have for silver. Chart is 4 hour bars.
Just been looking at the same thing. The `party` for OBL was short lived.
Damn, TZ, I was just about to pull the trigger after your post earlier thinking we may drift.
Good call again. Train has left the station.
I beginning to wonder if the dollar will ever bounce. Ben sure has done a number on our currency.
Jayhawk: Agree on SLW. A high probability that this morning was the daily cycle low. As you said, final washout move.
For those with cash, should we just contine to wait or is there a technical level we can key off of to buy in?
You mention 5 minute oversold on the RSI, we have not hit that so far today.
No worries here. It won’t matter when I buy (this morning or tomorrow), as long as we’re done going down.
Quotes just now on CNBS:
“Gold looks unstoppable”
“S&P daytraders have switched over to silver daytrading”
“Gold is acting now like it is the world currency”
“Gold will continue to be the safe haven….and pull the other commodity markets with it”
I think the dollar needs to buy a vowel. Unbelieveable. Someday someone needs to write a book about the Invisible Hand vs. debasement of currency. Amazing the ability of the (somewhat) free market system to the see reality behind complex monetary moves.
SIL hit it’s lower channel
Hot Rod,I guess that confirms it; get ready for the dollar to pop!
It’s odd that gold isn’t ripping higher with silver, being it’s been the strong horse lately.
I can tell you without reservation this was not a daily cycle low. Daily cycle lows are visible on the charts from across the room.
This could be a one day correction in a continuing runaway move or it might be the start of a move down into a daily cycle low but it was not a daily cycle low.
Interesting that gold’s pretty much back to where it finished off Friday, while silver has recovered the lion’s share of its smackdown.
I wonder how much we should be reading into today’s “overnight” action as the raid on the PMs came on a day when most of the world was closed for May Day.
Seems to me that it’s along the same lines of the action to start last week when silver when on a big sprint in thin trading amid another holiday in many markets to start the week.
That said, the near tagging of $50 was this time last week was good enough for me to pull out of half my silver and move across to gold. So I don’t maybe today’s action does portend a downweek, or maybe it’s just some monkeying around amid holiday market closures?
Hot Rod,Without an obvious daily cycle low in place I can’t tell you with any certainty when a good time to buy is.
I can tell you with a great deal of certainty that the C-wave isn’t done.So as long as you are emotionally capable of holding thru a draw down anytime is a good time to buy.
What about silver?
My thoughts on silver are that it is a BLENDER here. And I’m not interested in jumping into a blender.
I am 100% completely POSTIVELY MASSIVELY happy I sold all my silver futures within about $1.50 of the top last monday morning.
That is the trade (holding too long after massive profits and a blowoff move) that, in the past, I would hold through and end up destroying much of my profits. Not this time.
Clearly silver could continue up and make new highs but it will NOT be an easy thing to either play or hold through due to the volatility now. And maybe it does NOT make a new high. I don’t envy you guys holding AGQ.
Since silver is now easily moving 50cents+ on the smallest of sneezes, it is very difficult to get a good position and hold it with minimal loss. I’m not saying I might not try if things turn more positive, but I’ve moved my position over to 5x gold futures and I’m happy.
Back above friday’s close on gold. Nice.
Thank you TZ for that thoroug explanation. I really appreciate it.
Starting to feel like you were right about that runaway.
With the dollar up against its IT timing band and stretching, maybe we just run away for another 15 days while the dollar finds its 3 yr low.
You can get very parabolic from these gold/silver levels in 15 days.
Poly,Yes gold is certainly not doing what I wanted it to do. Now we are back to the runaway move scenario.
gold retraced all its losses from last night and then some. runaway move still on the table folks.
The last 20 minutes, silver has run out of steam and gold pressed a lot higher.
Anything to take from this as it is a repeat from Friday.
Gary, even though it would hurt my position I’m pulling for your daily cycle low. I’d feel more confident if you were more confident.
And I wonder–I wah-wah-wah-wah-wonder,Why,Why, why, why, why, why she ran away,Yes, and I wonder,A-where she will stay-ay,My little runaway,Run, run, run, run, runaway.
Hot rod, You really need to turn off your computer. Now you are trying to read meaning into ever 5 minute move.
The most inane thing would be if silvr acually finishd up or the day.
Run out of steam? Wow Rod, you’re a real tough critic!
Remember when it used to take a week for silver to move $.50-$1… Good times. The changing scale on those Kitco charts messes with my head. When silver moves slowly over 3+ days its all zoomed in so that small moves look huge, then when they zoom it way out like this – these $1 moves look like nothing.
Silver is on a roll. I think too many people shorted it expecting it to collapse at the open when the SLV/AQG orders hit. The price action last night was a low volume liquidation and the futures contract was trading above the VWAP for most of the night. At this rate we will see a swing high and a swing low in the same day 😉 J/K. The real challenge will the consolidation high volume areas between 48 and 49. If it can take out 48.80ish area I think 50 will go like a “hot knife through butter”
Also Gary, keep in mind that the time-horizons in which moves happen, at least among the professionals have shortened a lot thanks to 24/7 market, computerized trading, HFT etc. Sentiment swings now should be measured in terms of hours and not days.
And the CME is probably going to have to raise silver margins again today. In 12 MINUTES last night we had a move which was TWICE the margin amount per contract.
Thus, even if a person was trading at HALF max margin level they STILL got their account destroyed last night.
Generally margins should be set so that a reasonably expected move does *not* take out a persons account. The exchange has to set levels so that holders of contracts have enough money in the margin to cover expected moves.
The amount of an ‘expected’ move to consider in setting margins just skyrocketed last night. We’ll see what they do today.
BOUGHT 5000 MDW
I’m not waiting around. Picked up some May GLD $150’s.
Did that selloff last night happen to coincide with the OBL death news (or leak of the news)?
Why would the price of gold have anything at all to do with Osama Bin Laden?
I’m appalled (as a US citizen) and amazed at the weakness of the dollar. Dollar sentiment remains very bearish (bullish for the $)and, as Poly has mentioned, the Intermediate cycle is more than overdue to end. What will it take for the $ to bounce?
I think it’s pretty obvious the dollar intends to make new all time lows before the three year cycle low occurs.
miners wtf…they are acting inversely to gold
It’ll really through the market for a loop if they raise gold margins tonight.
Still holding and waiting.Slept in this morning well sort of because it’s 0825 and I am up..Strange strange 24 hours so far….
Friday after market close. Insider trading.
The seller should be identified and prosecuted.
Agreed, Gary. It’s unfortunate that the only thing we can really do about the dollar’s demise is take advantage of it through PMs.
I’m in the same boat TZ – except I’m never 5X anything ;). I like the blender analogy. I still held a small stake of SLV calls but even let those go Friday after seeing the suspect decoupling of silver from gold.
Although my account is in the green today since I’m gold only, I agree with Gary that a daily cycle correction is long overdue and would have preferred a good shakeout for more sustainable gains later.
I think Big Bob who loves Hawaii said that some silver miners are reporting soon. Do you think that could be the jump start for miners to start acting right?
Miners don’t move on old news they move on expected forward price of silver or gold.
It seems they have been expecting a daily cycle low for about three weeks but the metals haven’t cooperated.
Gary,Are there any books you recommend on cycle analysis? I have seen some work on Walter Bressert on the web but not much as far as books to really break it down. I have learned a good amount of elliot wave, but I like cycle analysis since it seems like a less complicated view.
Awesome job on covering the metals. My subscription has already paid for itself. Thanks again.
Gary, I have no idea why. I just asked if it did. If it was a trigger, it would make sense to me that it would not stick.
Silver miners continuing their one month downtrend….hello people.
It’s ironic, but contrary to popular belief, profiting from parabolic tops are so difficult. We lick our chops in anticipation of a parabolic ending, but in reality, the money is made in the gentle accumulation months leading to a parabolic run.
If you’re going to have any chance of making real money during the final run, it will require nerves of steal to avoid selling the dips and buying the pops, they will occur almost daily.
Now that you are convinced this is not the daily cycle correction and are re-confirming this a runaway move, will you sell your AGQ and SLV this morning and move into gold as originally planned? If not, when do you anticipate making the switch?
Gary did not say he is convinced this will not turn into a daily cycle low. What he said is that we do not have a daily cycle low right now.
The market could head south again and gold could drop to 1515 or so. That would be a low enough low to qualify for a daily cycle low. And it could start that drop right now. If it does, it would likely be over in a day or three.
But if the low that came in last night is all we get, then we do not have a daily cycle low and the runaway move is still in place.
The point is that right now we don’t know whether we’re going to get the daily cycle low or not.
good point. This is my first intermediate cycle and the thing that I have learned is that the closer we get to the top the more I need to lighten my exposure not add to it.
Thanks for the feedback. However, what Gary said at 7:44a.m. was “I can tell you without reservation this was not a daily cycle low.”
That’s a pretty decisive comment and I’d like to hear how it’s affecting his trades.
Yes, THIS was not a daily cycle low. This means “this”, as in what we have so far.
At least that’s the way I read it.
How can he or anyone else possibly say what’s going to happen for the rest of the day today, or tomorrow? Unless you can say for sure that you know what’s going to happen later today and tomorrow and the day after that, how can you be sure we won’t get the daily cycle low?
If I make a trade it will be posted in real time.
Could be a swing high in GLD today, see how it closes.
FWIW, we have a nice looking double top on the 30 min chart and gold futures are dropping hard. Maybe we get the daily cycle low after all.
The TL break we would need to confirm it is down around 1519 on tomorrow’s date. That’s a pretty big drop, but not out of the question. On Wednesday that TL is around 1523.
It’s not possible to get a swing high today. But we might get one tomorrow. That would open up the possibility for a move down into a cycle low the rest of the week. But we need the dollar to bounce.
At one point weeks ago doc said he expected a very sharp, but very brief correction. This seems to qualify.
but I think we wait for corrections to be confirmed always during NYSE market hours, don’t we?
Yes a correction must be visible on stockcharts which means it must occur during market hours.
I’m not buying for one minute this notion that a daily cycle low can occur during a thin after hours market.
Daily cycle corrections are profit taking events that clear sentiment. That can’t happen over a couple of hours in the after market.
We still might get it, looks like she wants to drop again. The chart since 11am top has been all down hill.
Gary,it looks like correction is already started.If you have to enter a new possition,what woyld you prefer to buy at the bottom of the corection Gold or Silver?
Miners are really sucking wind again. I have a decent amount in 401k accounts, but they just blow. SIL especially has been a dog the entire IT cycle.
I’m dumping them all for UGL and some AGQ, if they go for a run in the final weeks, that would be a surprise to me, even if they have always done this during past c-wave endings (All 3 of them)
Anybody have any theories what caused the dollar pop last night?
PolySo far the down action has felt more corrective rather than impulsive. During the down move SI is finding support where it should (Fibs, VWAP) and the bounces are sharper than the declines (so far).
It has auctioned very well. Top of the day was near that 47.26 low of last Thursday; and continues to honor technical price levels very well.
gold setting up for a swing high tomorrow – hopefully we get our swing low on Friday
sprott sold silver last week: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/streetwise/eric-sprott-sells-his-silver-trust-units/article2006755/
According to Turd, he hypothesized that gold would test the levels of 1560-65 which it did today. If gold reaches that point it would begin to consolidate lower at supports of 1540 or even 1525. This week we still have the factory report, the ISM non-manufacturing, Jobless claims, nonfarm payroll and unemployment report out. If any of these signs show a positive improvement in our economy than perhaps the dollar will appreciate for a short time which will hopefully signify the next parabolic move in silver?
I agree. In the past miners at least SIL would have a 5-7 day correction then a sharp reversal.
What I am seeing is an intermediate type of correction that has lasted 14 days and counting.
This is not what I would consider a normat cyle correction.
is this the pain that everyone was looking for before going long?
Silver miners such as AG showing oversold according to stochastics. This is the same level seen at last IT cycle. Therefore I think we should see a bounce later in the week or early next, especially if we enter parabolic phase as Gary mentions. Would be foolish to sell now IMO.
anybody buying today
To me this does look like a correction that can be seen on stockcharts:
Bought a little AG just for the hell of it.
Doesn’t have much to do with PM’s–well, except for mining stocks–but SPY is at top of SoS list again today.
Could it possible that the silver miners and PM will end up performing like this in our current situation:
look at how slw diverged from slv from January to early Feb. At the end of the final wave the miners did not outperform slv…
oops that was jan 2008 to feb 7
I have a lot of dry powder and am itching to buy here. That’s probably why it is still too early.
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Here comes bucky?
Not buying yet. In fact the only thing I’ve done today is take a long nap. 🙂
Sprott sold some silver? That would be interesting.
Thanks for the link, 77.
Here’s more on the topic:
So what’s your routine SB ?
Long nap, then commute to work to push the print button and smell the sweet aroma of fresh paper with your coffee ?
I will blame you if we don’t get our daily cycle bottom !
You didn’t think my job was real, did you? 🙂
It looks like the panic is still ahead of us.
How about throwing us dogs some bones by letting us know your exit target on gold. I’m assuming you still think it’ll be over in few weeks. I’ll start calling you “Master TZ” cause “u da man”. Thanks in advance.
” Shalom Bernanke said…Not buying yet. In fact the only thing I’ve done today is take a long nap. :)”
SB, are you still holding NUGT?
Gary,What books would you recommend on cycle analysis. The only stuff I’ve seen is pdfs by Walter Bressert. I was wondering if there was a good book detailing cycle analysis. I do know elliott wave, but I feel like it is too complicated and the waves get too messy. Seems like there is a simplicity to cycle analysis if used right.
Thanks for all the great work on your blog and subscription.
Gary, are you there? Can you say something soothing?How about you, SB? :o(
Yes, I still have NUGT and am waiting to add to it and put more funds to work in the near future but not today.
It’s my only holding besides physical at the moment.
If we close near here or lower, my best guess is more decline to come tomorrow. And the Sprott news, although basically a non-event to me, is bound to shake up a few more longs tonight.
Maybe we get an exhaustive puke-out in the morning to take advantage?
For Canadian gold and silver option traders,
are you guys trading options in Canada, or are you guys trading with US options?
i don’t think i can find a decent canadian listed option…
I don’t believe I’ll get taken out of NUGT as my stop is in the low $34’s but if it gets there I promise to be long gone.
Until then my days will consist of looking at buys. (and an occasional nap)
Will P,There aren’t many books out there for cycle analysis, this question has been asked a few times and I believe Gary has referred to a couple of Trader Vic books on amazon.com.
You were better off going long UUP that SLW over that past 20 days.
Thanks Mr. Miyagi. I’ll check some of trader vic’s stuff or just keep reading the bressert docs
Will P,He’s also referenced cyclesman.info.
From past experience, this certainly feels like that calculated sell off into a cycle low.
I think Bressert books served as inspiration for Tim Wood who introduced Gary to cycles…
I wish Gold would particiapte and get this over with.
Silver is falling hard but Gold is down like 0.5 %!
Does anyone have suggestions on SLW here (i.e. a good buy in area)? Thanks.
The orderly sell off has the hallmarks of entering panic mode now
I’m not looking at individual names to call this turn. Better to look at a miner etf like SIL or GDX as a guide when to buy an individual name like SLW.
None of the names we’re looking at will turn higher until the group does.
This has been ugly for anyone who has holding a good amount of mining shares. Over 50% of my account is in them. I’m not really sure what to do here…
Poly, what are you seeing that makes you say that a panic selloff is upon us now? Thanks.
anyone still holding the gary calls or did you abandon ship ?
Where’s Beanie when you need him 😉
This is setting up for the big washout before the parabolic move. Gary said that there will be talk that the D-wave has begun. This drop is really going to shake us up.
Even if I were loaded up in miners, I would not sell shares into this decline.
There looks like more pain ahead, but the bull will let you out at much better prices if you can hold through the discomfort.
Alex knows the miners. Perhaps he shall comment tonight.
SB, Thanks I added back miners and this is no fun! You were smart to wait….more patience paid off.
Not time to buy yet…
I wish gold would join the blood bath. I’d feel much better then. Without that, I’m worried
I haven’t done a darn thing today…haven’t even logged into my account.
Thankfully I didn’t nibble this morning like I was tempted to.
Now even the buck is showing signs of life as gold sags. It looks like Gary’s daily low could be comin’ at us this week!
gold does look like it is joining the carnage. This is good news. This sets us up for a swing high tomorrow and hopefully a swing low later this week. Although it hurts this is good news. Just close your eyes and hang on this week if you believe in Gary’s work.
Miners I added was awhile back afterSB dumped!
I believe the chart patterns, volume patterns, etc. in the individual miners will be overwhelmed by the drop in the metals if it goes further. That is, a chart can look great but if the sector gets smashed the “looking great” chart will fail and soon look awful. Better off waiting for the bottom to form and then buying the miners a little late. The goal for me isn’t to catch the lowest price, but to be sure it will go up after I do buy it.
Take a look now 🙂
Don’t look at your accounts! I did and it is bye bye bucks again 🙁
OK, silver miners trading at 2010 levels. Thats almost six months of gains gone.
You guys are layering into long positions right?
Dollar starting to climb…
Let’s see what happens..
Gold taking the plunge
I just want to throw the obligatory comment just in jest, ” Gary, has the D-wave started? What should I do? Should I sell?”
The above is a joke. Please everyone stay calm and not freak out.
AGQ down 18 %! Hope this gets over quickly.
Gary said awhile back that it would feel like the “D” wave is here but it isn’t! 🙂
Panic selling now
Is there a decoupling of Silver price on Kitco/goldseek with SLV? SI on Kitco is still at 43.6 and slv is around 42.6, almost a dollar difference.
watching agq is a test not unlike Cain’s dragon tattoos in Kung fu
Glad I did NOT buy AGQ in the 300’s!!!
GDX 59.50 is the bottom, we are going back up tomorrow.
The margin clerks are coming in now.
It is setting up nicely, I know its hard to believe.
Silver getting close to that April 12th top where i thought this cycle would have topped. Around $42.50 Silver if we could get it tomorrow would be a real sweat entry, IMO.
What floor are we looking for again? Are we there yet?
I would wait to buy until the dollar makes a swing low.
It’s looking more and more like we will see $40 silver before this drop is over. Maybe $39.
Gold is not as obvious to me, but low 1530’s looks likely, and maybe 1520
SLW just made a lower low
Are they front run the SLV/GLD/AGQ selling into the close? We should get our swing high in Gold tomorrow.
The dollar’s swings are relatively tame, +/- 1.5% at best.
we would need 1520 or low IMO to give us the right “look” for a daily cycle low. If it stops here, the drop is still within the range for a drop within a runaway move (so far aoubt $33). Another $10 or so seems like it would be outside of that range. So 1530 would do that. But 1520 would be more obvious and would likely break the TL which would be another confirmation.
Gary, I’ve been studying trader Vic’s book and I’m looking for 2B reversals in real time. I understand that gold is the driver here but would I be correct in saying that AGQ confirmed a 2B reversal today? Just simply for educational purposes? Thanks
SLV finally breaks it’s 8dma!
Only did this once this entire IT cycle, that was the last and only daily cycle of this IT.
Interesting fact. Thank you. I feel like Poly and Wes are going to make a killing on this cycle because they have so much cash.
Where are DG, Alex, and TZ today?
HUI tagging the 50 dma
I will top off for the last time at the bottom if I get the chance.
here is my prediction:
1)nice bounce tomorrow/wednesday (i bet a lot of people will go short based on the chart at close)
2)lower low (gold 1520 and silver 43) on wednesday or thursday
3)swing low on Friday
Still hurts even with just 30% invested here. Took a small hit buying at the high today, but quickly dumped it after it didn’t follow through.
Key for all here is to not sell, that opportunity has passed. Walk away if you have to, but this pain should be for the greater good 🙂
Like Gary said, this is looking like the d-wave..is it here?
The hardest part for me is the waiting.We’re looking to move to another province (or a province I should say..) and planning a trip past the C is getting harder! I so NOT want to be sitting at the computer, in fact, I don’t want to bring a computer at all!
Well, now. That sure was uncomfortable. 🙁
A lot of buying came into the miners at the close! Looking for some positive, LOL
That sucked big time for the jackasses like me who bought into the “MINERS” play.
Wow that sucked. .
What’s it called when you have a failure to bounce back from a big sell off? Whatever it is that’s what we got. Feels extremely bearish in the near term.
I think we have plenty of pain to go too…….only seen one real “is this the d-wave” question so far 😉
I think it’s 15 to mark a cycle bottom.
Lucky you! Imagine the situation if you were into AGQ.
It may have doubled the losses.
I can’t belive that I held through all this with AGQ loaded portfolio. Would have definitely panicked had it not been for Gary’s morning post.
You’re not alone. I too have a bunch of miners as well. But I’m going to hold the faith that Gary’s correct here and we’ll see a nice come back.
As much as I enjoyed riding the C-wave with a buy and hold approach, we’re headed back to my favorite type of market. Buying dips, but SELLING the rips instead of hanging on in overbought territory.
One way markets are fun on the right side, but much harder to trade, IMO.
As I said 2 weeks ago, my holding times for long ideas will be much shorter going forward. I’ll stay that way until Gary informs us another C-wave is on the horizon.
EXK looks relatively strong here.It tagged the 50 dma early on and bounced back above support at 10.50. Earnings report on Thurs, May 5.
The miners should recover before the metals.
A lot of pain has already been priced into them.
Keep in mind that the slingshot effect will come into play when they get moving.
It always feels horrible into cycle lows, it makes you doubt everything! That’s how you know a real cycle low is coming, IMO. That’s how sentiment gets cleared to enable new cycles, especially parabolic runs. You can’t ride them just buying and holding!
My tummy hurts from seeing the decling balances in my accounts…
Anyone have an idea how to pull up the Dollar Currency Index on Yahoo Finance?
“You can’t ride them just buying and holding!”
I wrote this to mean, that it’s not going to make it easy to just buy and hold. Of course the only thing to do now, is to hold. No time for coughing up shares.
Rod,I am with you, holding the line with the miners but would have probably sold today if not for Gary’s advice. Now alot of faith in Gary that this these come back during the C-wave parabolic move ahead……
San Diego Jack,
Here you go:
At least we haven’t seen the pain we saw during the Japanese earthquake. I guess we will see that pain by Wed or Thu as silver drops below $42.
I told my wife I am not going to look at my accounts today. I lied and peeked at them once during a bought of weakness.
Look at previous market tops. If you like Price Action then read ‘Trading Price Charts Bar by Bar’ by Al Brooks. Invaluable. The one rule that has kept the shirt on my back in my trading is ‘never trade counter trend unless there has been a prior significant trend line break’ – this one rule can save people loads as it prevents you picking tops and bottoms.
Another great observation is that the rally back into the old trend line after that trendline break is one of the surest trades a trader can ever make – it will either test the TL and form a lower high or break it and form a higher high to trap most short sellers stops!
I’m looking to get back long gold this week or next post NFP – the fiat currencies are too shot to bother going long. But then again to be a true contrarian is USD the trade of the moment?
The best trades are made swimming against the tide – but I will wait for the significant TL break and rule of 4 (ie There must be a low, high, higher low and higher high for a new long trend; vice versa for a short)
“Thank you sir, may I have another!”
GDX/GLD now at fresh, new, 52-week lows. No much higher than the last low which was in February 2010, when gold was trading at $1,050 – amazing
CME hikes margin requirement on silver for 3rd time in 7 days according to CNBC just now
MG,I’m not sure you have that right..
You should re-check that. GDX is much higher than it was a year ago.
My portfolio still consists of a whole lot of AGQ, some DGP and a bit of GDX. It definitely hurts pretty badly right now. I still have some dry powder so thankfully I didn’t add more AGQ this morning. I really hope I can handle the additional beat down this week. For those that have a lot of cash on hand, will you be going back to AGQ or DGP or?
San Diego JackOn Yahoo finance, get quote on dx-y.nyb
MG is referring to the ratio chart, usually rendered GDX:GLD and showing the negative divergence between gold miners and gold.
A much more stark version of this is SLW:SLV.
anyone here going all in here at the cycle bottom?
Please advice how to play it..will really appreciate it
OK, now it’s clear.
Right now the Xau/gold ratio is 7.16.
This means the miners are insanely cheap relative to gold — indeed the ratio is higher than it’s been in a year.
To a trader this may be a bad sign. To a buy-and-hold investor, it’s a sign of absolute value.
You said: “Took a small hit buying at the high today, but quickly dumped it after it didn’t follow through.”
Just curious, what did you buy and when (what price) did you decide to sell it?
I like to follow your trades so I can learn from the master.
bought SIL $32 lotto calls at the close for 30 cents, let’s see if this thing C waves or not.
holding my same stash of PSLV which just dipped into the red today (thanks sprott!). won’t be adding until we see a sub-$40 print, if at all.
I don’t like the volume on UUP
SIL closed the gap at $26.0
See what happens tomorrow…
SB & Work,Thanks for the link to the Dollar quote. If anyone would know, they would be on this blog.Thanks again.
also: since when do people follow UUP? i doubt the “big boys” even glance at that POS. volume on /DX in the last few weeks is below average, if anything.
Silver to 28
Beanie, what did you do with the gold position you took at higher prices, I believe?
Do you still see it going up?
I was wondering what took Beanie so long to throw salt in the wound.
Silver to $28? Maybe in 15-20 years. 🙂
To me — that alone will help reset sentiment!! Now we can hope for a two-to-three day churn/grind/whatever to get this cycle low behind us!! Man– D wave will be a serious stomach churner for those who ride through it– (Anybody not listening to Gary — of course) :))
Buy semiconductor’s! LOL!!!
so as i posted couple of days ago, beanie did buy at all time high.
beanie is joker and should be banned from here.
I would say that the ratio is an indication of divergence, positive and negative, to both an investor and a trader. IMO, the ratio value itself is less important then the direction. Up is bullish, down is bearish.
@ Gottahaveit – May GLD $150 @ $3.70 sold @ $3.15.
let’s do it again!
Yay Beanie! I know you try to troll us, but when you show up it makes me happy. You are like one of the chickenburrito/moldyhamsandwich puppets come to life. Your doom and gloom posts are always harbingers of good things on the horizon!
SLV disappeared from the BoW page. AGQ numbers dropped way down on the total money flow and went negative on the block trades. Seems that big money is not buying this dip yet.
Don’t let Beanie fool you all, he is a closet goldaphile!
His site is essentially ALL gold and silver related. From the Kitco live charts, links to buy silver, video of Turk, Fleckenstein, Paul and Rodgers.
Will this do it?
Is this the D wave?Is this the D wave?Is this the D wave?Is this the D wave?Is this the D wave?Is this the D wave?Is this the D wave?Is this the D wave?Is this the D wave?Is this the D wave?Is this the D wave?Is this the D wave?Is this the D wave?Is this the D wave?
Poly has Beano pegged. Nothing more than a salesman, and not a very good one at that!
Rest well traders, tomorrow could see the lows of this move. Get your buy lists ready.
Great action today on SLW!!
At this rate, I’ll be able to buy that cardboard box down by the river I’ve been dreaming about.
Silver up $0.25 on your post!
the sky is falling
Well, Poly said we need at least 15 “Is this the D wave”. One had already been asked, so I supplied the other 14, and whaddaya know, silver up a quarter!
SLW Trader,Better not be the one I’ve had my on!
Pima, You are so funny. I may not start the computer tomorrow.
Hope that’s not SLW stock certificates you’re tossing in that avatar pic?
You guys are a riot.
I call dibs on Gary’s pull out couch in his basement. The one by the air hockey table and just under the dog’s playing poker framed picture.
Up $0.35. Who needs Gary’s cycle analysis!
wow AGQ down under 300 anyone buying here?
guess my purchase at 320 drove it lower lol
I thought the daily cycle was so far over due that a correction would be quick but painful and over within possibly a day.
Right now, I feel like my nuts have been kicked so far up my behind that they are coming out of my ears.
Just watched the Fast Money guys talk about silver. They are getting cautious but aren’t convinced it’s “over,” which means we probably need some more downside. However, when they were talking about silver they referenced it as a “bubble,” which means they clearly don’t get it.
“Fast Money” crew, what a bunch of unbelievalbe fakes.
Good night all, signing off. Going to watch a couple of Silver shooting the moon You Tube video’s from Beanie’s site.
So how exactly can be sure that this isnt the D-wave correction already?
The miners are still falling faster than gold so that indicates we have further to fall from here.
Seasonally, we are pretty late as are already in May.
The dollar has fallen for two days in a row and PMs have also been down for two days in a row, anybody care to guess what happens to PMs if the dollar actually has an up day?
Silver went parabolic and had a double top at 49.50 with huge volume.
PM stocks have been lagging for several, typical of a top.
Dollar sentiment is at record lows, lower than in previous peaks.
The only argument for PMs not topping here is the fact that gold and PM stocks were not stretched enough above the 200dmva.
LOL, SLW Trader. Mine only made it to my stomach. 🙂
Well, looks like the C wave has topped! See you all in three years! It was fun, but the (D)EATH wave is upon us. SLW back to 2.50.
I’m selling all my stuff at the open, dumping all my bullion (just head Dave Ramsey saying what FREAKING IDIOTS people who buy gold are). Going long Beanie’s portfolio.
There…is that bearish enough to kick off a move up?
I know you guys don’t buy and hold, but if you had from the Dec 7 GDX high to today :GDX: 64.22 (high adjusted for div)-> 59.85 = -6.7%SLW: 42.31 (high adjusted for div) -> 37.77 = -10.7%SIL: 27.54 (high adjusted for div) -> 26.45 = -3.95%
And what lowly-loved investment has now outperformed all of these since that day with a natural disaster, nuclear disaster, and money-printing disaster in the making??? Yep, Japanese stocks:
EWJ: 10.63 (high adjusted for div) -> 10.56 = -0.6%
It’s a wacky world we live in, indeed…
I have a lot riding on this like us all. Just started to handle my father in laws account and am at 80% in his account.
As far as I’m concerned the miners are holding up well. Look at the HUI. We just need to hold our positions. I will be adding AGQ if we dip to the 42 dollar level on Silver. My guess is that’s as low as we go.
Hows is the “Hilson” indicator? any new emails?
SLW Trader, LOL. glad I have no nuts just fruits..
Got this one from Hilson last night. He was itching to buy AGQ, so that’s a bearish sign for silver.
When he starts emailing about selling his physical, the bottom is in.
Here’s the email-
Banbksters push it down 20% pre marketand in an hour were almost at 45!!!AGQ tomorrow…pray were down 20%!!!!!!
Massive volume on SIL today.
whoa, just took a look at share prices. AGQ dropped below 300!
Jayhawk, did you mean to include the email snippet?? I can’t see it.
We must be approaching the cycle low because….
1) i feel physically sick to the pit of my stomach
2) I want to sell everything
3) I feel convinced this is the d-wave
4) I’m not sure I can hold out this week through more downside
So it’s time to keep our nerves, bite the stick and swig the moonshine 🙂
Don’t worry, we’re on the same team. In fact, I purchased SLV afterhours.
All of those things you mentioned concern me as well. The big ones are the dollar sentiment and the fact that the dollar’s IT cycle is stretched already. Seems to me that if the dollar puts in a low (call it a daily cycle low), there won’t be enough time left in the IT cycle for a whole ‘nother daily cycle. So the low (if the dollar does put in one) will have to be the IT low and that will also make it the 3 year low. If that were to happen in the next couple of days, PM’s will be toast.
So I’m thinking that the only way the dollar tanks further and goes down to at least tag the 2008 low is for it to continue down without much of a bounce along the way, like continue down the rest of the week. The only fly in that ointment is that dollar sentiment is scraping bottom already–lower that at the 2008 bottom–so who’s left to sell and push prices lower?
As I’m typing this I just realized that the dollar is thinly traded, so what we need to be looking at is Euro sentiment and sentiment of the other currencies that make up the dollar index. Anyone have a read on those?
Dan and Clark, thanks. Poly had counted one D wave question and said that for us to reach a bottom, we need 15. Yours bring the count up to 3 and my reply to Dan brings it up to 4. 11 more should do it.
For what it’s worth, I see a hammer on UUP
Osama why’d u die! You’re killing my account =(
jpjp, but lets get this week over with so we can go parabolic
I can see it. The part about the banksters pushing it down, let’s buy AGQ?
Trying to be somewhat open minded that the miners may be ok. Now the silvers are another story. I can’t find may good charts that are screaming “buy me!”
On the HUI-
For one thing, the 200 MA is only a little under 8% from here!
The TRIANGLE pattern is still holding up.
The 50 MA is holding it for now. Look at how the HUI crawled along the 50 MA for 8 painful days back in October before launching higher.
That being said, I’ve had just about enough of these miners. Complete letdown.
It’s got to be 15 unique posters asking/fretting over a D-Wave.
You counted one. Dan and Clark make 3. And I am also fretting, so that makes 4! 11 to go.
Yes the EU dollar sentiment is at near highs also.
I know I am going to get killed for this comment but the honest truth is silver has ALWAYS retracted back to the 200DMVA after parabolic runs, if one was to buy an inverse silver ETF here and not check prices until late summer they are pretty much guaranteed to be up a nice amount. Like it or not thats just the truth.
I just got what’s probably a bogus print on the gold futures chart–1516.20 Anyone else see that?
It occurred at 18:00 eastern time, with a large volume spike as well.
Pima:Yep, one 5min bar with a low of 1516.20 at 4pm MST
Thanks for posting the details of your options trade today!
I’m surprised you cut your losses so fast, have you given up on gold for the short-term? I would have thought you’d let it run for at least a few days to see if gold bounced back up.
I’m still holding a couple of the same GLD options that you bought last Thursday and Friday.
You weren’t kidding when you said there would be days when they would be down double-digits! LOL
Pima:So does that mean we can sleep better tonight or need to drink more tonight?
PC,The last intermediate dollar cycle was very short. This cycle could easily stretch to 30 weeks to even out that short cycle. Actually that is exactly what I expect it to do.
Who supplies your charting package and data? I’m wondering whether it’s a bad tick or for real. I run TOS, so that’s where I’m getting my data.
Because TOS provides both TOS charts and Prophet charts, I just tried getting the June Gold on Prophet but it won’t come up for me.
That’s a correct move to 1516.Watching it now.
Thanks, Gary. That info re the dollar IT cycle puts things in a little better perspective.
I did not sell today!
It does look legit because of the large volume spike, like a bunch of traders puked their contracts all at the same time. Forced liquidation due to margin blowouts, maybe?
My agenda for the week. Computer off, Phone stock quotes off, bury myself in work and family and will turn the computer back on Saturday. Lot’s of road biking for me this week. maybe 200 mile week.
Spike down legit.Stopped out of 1/3 my gold futures positions (near top of the spike).
I still hold those June $140 positions you got in on.
This was a new position at 11am based on the idea the market shrugged off the overnight drop and the run-away was indeed moving ahead. Within 30 minutes or so, it was clear the market turned and the run away, for the time being was not on the cards. So being they were near strike May calls, I had no choice but to dump them before they cost me big bucks.
I’m leaving for France on Sunday, and I won’t be back until Tuesday, May 24. I’m already fully invested in Gold mostly. Given the scenario you outlined in tonight’s report, would it be stupid of me or smart to turn off my computer until I return? (In other words, leave my computer at home and just enjoy myself?)
I know I’m just my own caller, but in my world, 1X, 1547, was reached. The stretch up 18 pts or so, would make it 1.15 approx, which is the 1X.
On a monthly chart, we’re early for the next stretch to 3X, 1770+, if indeed there will be one. If there’s another rally, and do note that I want one as I’ve a small fortune in PMs that I want to see a mid-sized fortune, 1770 range is the 1st target and 2100 is the 2nd and last target.
1X was the highest probability. But repudiation, at 1434.10, was real and has had the first consequence. I never figured out what would drive it on, but most of the time this repudiation reaches 3X range, 1770 area.
That can arrive next month or at any time over the next 3-6 months.
IMO, the time frame in which this move is running is the monthly, not the minutes or days.
The pullback, undesired for longs as it is, will be a fib percentage of either 113 or 226. I haven’t backtested what fib % that has been.
I see it too. 1516
That spike down was so damn fast! I would have added if I could have blinked and reacted! Hopefully that’s a level we can revisit soon.
That was some liquidation at the 6:00PM open. It definitely had the look and feel of a sell at market open kind of broker/margin liquidation. They made out like bandits I presume. In that one minute it traded all the way down to 1516.2and back to 1541. Very much like Silver’s flash crash last night but just faster!
My guess re Poly’s dumping of his calls is it has to do with the May expiration. When you’re playing with options that close to expiration, if they don’t do what you’re expecting in a few days, you can lose a bunch. If the daily cycle low takes a few days to bottom and then another two or three days to get the gold price back to where it was when he sold, the options would be worth a lot less than his buy price because of the time that had passed.
So now golds down $6 and silvers up $0.40?!? This markets unreal.
trade pro had the dump at 1516.20 also
I’m looking at the 1 min chart on TOS and it happened right at 18:00. Is that when the futures days rolls over? I’m thinking it had to do with margin calls. OTOH gold wasn’t down a huge amount, so why would there be a lot of margin calls today? Whatever it was, somebody dumped a bunch of contracts all at once.
It took gold down to the accelerated TL, but did not break it.
If you were more generous and considered the Europeans as co-equals, you would recognize that for them, this entire rally and collapse will not even show on their charts.
They will see a flat line from Thurs close to Tues open.
Gary’s nightly report is already posted.
Everyone, let’s make a daisy chain holding hands and start chanting“I will not sell……. I will not sell…I will not sell……. I will not sell….I will not sell……. I will not sell “
Careful out there. No need to try and catch a falling knife in thin after-hours trade.
Patience will be rewarded again.
Someone got themselves some very cheap contracts!Margin dumps are done at the end of day, this couldn’t be margin call. Besides what idiot dumps at market? With a size that big you always do it in chunks.
MAX pain tomorrow?
I think Gary is spot on here, this has all the feel of a coming cycle low. Just requires some patience to unfold. It often helps to view ones account balance (if they must look frequently) from where it has come, not from the highest peak.
With the Yerps on board, 1535 is the starting point. They will have woken up after a refreshing 5 day holiday, and will see the Americans have paved the way to new highs. Expect the retracement, up, or for them, new found riches, up.
Thanks for the replies!
I’m learning the options market as I go. I wouldn’t buy May calls for the reasons you stated, too close to expiry.
But I am holding some of the GLD June 140’s and 160’s that Poly bought last week.
One of the options trading books I am reading recommends selling options with 30 days left to preserve the time value. Would that be a good strategy for those June calls, or will you hold them until the C Wave tops regardless of how close we are getting to the expiry date?
Unless you are managing OBL’s account haha. jk
Another great report, Gary.
If that is a real bar, I expect that bottom to be tested tonight.
Did anyone see it being painted live? Did it fall incrementally or was it just instant spike down?
If they are very deep in the money, you don’t have to worry about time decay because the option price will have very little time value or premium left.
But if they are not deep in the money, then you have a choice and I would say it would depend on the strength of the PM rally (if indeed we do get one!) at that time. The C wave will likely top before June options expiration, so holding until the top might be fine. (You’re talking options on etf’s and stocks, right? Not options on futures because those have different–earlier–expir dates than the stock/etf options.)
I can look at the tick chart, each bar 133 ticks, and it was incremental, but it all happened within 1 minute.
That report expresses such confidence. I don’t know how Gary does it.
This is getting pretty exciting folks. My trade plan is locked and loaded, and waiting for two trigger points..1) A daily cycle low, and 2) A breakout in Gold in that order.
If these events unfold as Gary expects I will be 100% invested for the C-Wave finale with my funds allocated as follows..DGP: 55%GDXJ: 37%AGQ: 13%
Feels like a juicy mix to me.
Here’s to parabolas.
yep, we are lucky to have Gary!
I’m out for a while.
Have a great evening all!
If we do get that daily cycle low, you guys going with gold or silver. From the report tonight, I’m leaning towards silver, that is if I don’t puke first.
Great post, what would you plan on doing if the dollar keeps dropping for the rest of the week though? I ask as you previously mentioned the dollar should bottom on friday but now it seems your view has reversed.
@Gotta, there is (very little) next to no time value in front month DITM’s.
The strategy you outline works well for long dated options like leaps or options you plan to sell many months out. The rule of thumb is buy 3 months past expected sale, because at around three months the time component of the price decays quickly. As the time value significantly deteriorates in the final 3 months, you buy 3 months ahead and only end up losing a small part of the time premium you initially paid.
man i’m starting to believe the conspiracy theorists may be right about the war against the p. m.’s
Maybe the sharp drop in pricing is due to the liquidation of found money accounts? 😉
“Switzerland said it had found 360 million Swiss francs ($415 million) of potentially illegal assets linked to Gaddafi and his circle. Some 410 million had been traced to former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and 60 million to former Tunisian President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali. “
I’m using TOS as well..I checked Finviz and they show the same dip at the same time (6pm EST)
That bar looks like a panic market order at the first tick of the market open.
But if that ends up being the low tomorrow, that should be plenty to mark the cycle.
Oh, I may be tempted to add another 10% or so in GLD or GDX DITM calls if Gold breaks out as well. Maybe a mix of the two. Say July GLD 145s and GDX 55s or thereabouts.
I would imagine by the DCL, I won;t be as giddy. : )
You think that would qualify as the cycle low? It would break Doc’s trend line.
There might be a retest, but it could now point to the location of the eventual bottom tomorrow.
Seriously? Man, any market that sees large advances has steep sell offs. No conspiracy needed. All you need is greed and fear, which is what markets run on.
Besides, steep sell offs are trademarks of bulls. Keeps fear at hand, which allows more upside. until you see a parabola in Gold and all related assets, the liklihood of a top is slim, at best.
margins upped again now 16 k for silver
Thanks again for helping me and others on this blog learn the options market by sharing your trades and valuable experience.
BTW, I have two books on options trading and they barely touch on DITM options which seems to be the prefered options trading vehicle used by the pros here.
Just goes to show that real life experience is much more valuable than book learnin’
Is this how you have your channel set up for /GC?
4 hour intermediate channel with with move off daily lows channel.
Close up on 1 hour you can see the tick down & price currently sandwiched between the 2 channels.
I see you mentioned it as I was typing.
anyone know of a drug that can knock you clean out for 5 days?
The gold market is very thin right now, but that was a 3K contract order that flushed close to -29 points in a few seconds.
Yeah, bury yourself in snow and freeze like Cartman did!
It was Gold flash crash:
Do you still got your phone close to the bed and check the market in the middle of the night?
What about these margin hikes in silver..How many can they do?
Will they do this 2 times every week or what?
Turns out that Sprott reinvested the proceeds from his silver etf in silver and silver stocks:
I understand the move into miners, my only question is why buy silver if that is exactly what his fund holds? He must have a reason to take the tax hit, then buy essentially the same thing?
maybe he’s trying to temporarily hedge against further shenanigans in the silver derivatives market
then again, maybe he’s a liar
hopefully this gets people excited about the miners again though
yeah i still take the kitco app to bed with me…..refresh refresh refresh
its right next to my puke bucket 🙂
I think Sprott sold because of the premium. Selling silver at a premium and then buying at a discount sounds like a reasonable notion to me.
I suppose we’ll find out some day.
On the issue of miners, I think that everything metal will bounce hard when they turn, but I’ll focus on buying the “undervalued” miners for the end of this C-wave vs. loading up on metal.
My only concern is that the S&P is way overdue for it’s usual 5-10% decline, which could keep a lid on all stocks until completed.
Here’s a different chart of the flash crash.
it looks like he’s moving his profits into undervalued assets…
What I’m getting at is that I don’t know what I’m buying tomorrow, but I hope to know by then. 🙂
There is a history of rules changes in the silver market during big rallies.
That’s part of what did in the Hunt Brothers back in 1980. Here is an excerpt from a story about the Hunts:
Late in 1979 the CBOT changed the rules and stated that no investor could hold over 3 million oz of silver contracts and the margin requirement were raised. All contracts over 3 million oz per trader must be liquidated by February of 1980. Bunker accused the COMEX and CBOT board members of having a financial interest in the silver market themselves. Investigations later found that many had substantial silver short positions. Bunker knew that a shortage now existed or they would not be screaming so loudly. He bought even more. The price on the last day of 1979 was $34.45/oz. At this point Bunker and Herbert held 40 million oz in Switzerland and 90 million oz of bullion they jointly owned through International Metals. In addition to all that, International Metals had contracts on another 90 million oz due for delivery that March from the COMEX. The younger brother, Lamar had even entered the arena and had taken a $300 million dollar silver position by the end of 1979.
Finally on January 7th of 1980 the COMEX changed their rules to only allow 10 million/oz of contracts per trader and that all contracts over that amount must be liquidated before February 18th. . The CFTC promptly backed up the ruling. On January 17th silver hit $50/oz, Bunker had continued to buy. At that point in time the Hunt’s silver position was worth $4.5 billion dollars bringing their profits in silver to $3.5 billion dollars. On January 21st the COMEX announced that it was suspending trading in silver. They would only accept liquidation orders. Silver dropped $10/oz and stayed around $39/oz until the end of January.
You can read the full article here:
King dollar is green! Woohoo!
We all agree if the C wave is alive, metals will blowoff!
We know miners have greatly underperformed to date, relative to metal. We can go on the assumption that they finally give us that blowoff AND greatly out perform the leveraged metals.
So the trade seems to come down to, assuming c-wave is alive, a) buy leveraged metal, it will blow off. Sit back B) Find the best miners and hope they blow off with the metals AND hope they beat a guaranteed leveraged metal blow off.
I’m just saying, its food for thought, as you plan your final attack.
nice chart, thnx
Hi everyone. Been hanging out all day with my friends visiting from Italy. Beats watching my portfolio get creamed, eh? I have a lot of dry powder and have been looking forward to/hoping for this (sort of). I will buy AGQ, DGP, SLW and a few miners, so the whole nine yards, ASSUMING the miners outperform at the bottom and look sold out.
The CME raised margins some 14 times on Cotton in 9 months. Those damn polyester boys at it again.
Looks like I picked a good day to play golf.
Now to come up with a master plan.
Question: How does the silver mini future YI track with the big one, SI? I was considering moving from trading SI due to these ever changing margin requirements. Anyone have any experience with both? Thanks
gold seems sooooooooooooo far from the lower BB
miners are gonna get trashed more
Guys don’t forget miners are releasing earnings starting week of May 9th. Next Monday!
This may be our catalyst to jump start these suckers!
What settings does gary use for the bollinger band?
If we get this damn cycle low, we have to be prepared to be fooled again an this skyrockets higher again tomorrow. That changes everything.
Peter,I think just normal 20,2 settings.If you’re talking about BB crash setting then it is 10,1.9.
CLARKATROID: You’re too funny. I say go into the hospital and ask them to put you into an induced coma. Then ask them to monitor Gary’s site, and to wake you when Gary says we’re very close to the C-wave top!
It’ll be like a great vacation. And when you come out of it, you’ll be a rich man. (So better than a great vacation!)
P.S. Of course, it’s true the hospital stay might cut into your profits a little. So ask them to do it at your home, and get a good nurse.
Open question to the blog:Considering how stretched the gold cycle had been, and fearing a vicious correction, similar to the 17% drop of silver in ’06, last Friday I moved my AGQ and July SLV calls into 66% into DGP with the remaining 33% in dry powder.
Since we assume that silver will significantly outperform gold in this final C wave advance, wouldn’t make sense to sell my DGP at the open and move all my powder in AGQ, and other silver plays, if and once we see a cycle low?
Any suggestions are greatly appreciated!
hey guys not in front of my charting software, can someone just let me know what was the all time low on the dollar index (the low we are looking to get taken out during this coming 3 year cycle low)? thanks in advance!
How’s this for a top call, from Ben Davies:
“We believe that the market has been exhibiting the precursory signatures of power law behaviour, and that the internet power law of participation phenomena has produced a point of criticality whereby we have seen the top in silver for this half of the year. We believe a real shake out is imminent, in the order of $15 dollars over 3 to 5 days.”
Ok. I give up. Since no one is willing to say this. I will do it.
I am going to SHORT the SECULAR bull market.
Now… I just sit and wait until Gary gives me the lecture on why I should NEVER short a secular bull market and then everyone else chimes in and tells me the same thing.
Then in about week, the PM markets starts moving up and everyone tells me “I told you so!!!” = )
I remember you saying that you sold half of your positions? Did you end up buying back in? I’m still pretty much in full positions (mostly AGQ/HZU.TO) with a bit of dry powder left. So needless to say I’m full on PUKE MODE.
yanivicious: I believe it was 70.70.
thank you newman, much appreciated
Anyone having trouble with the 3rd chart not showing in today post?Just getting a blank screen…
I believe Gary has said it’s a toss up at this point as to which PM, gold or silver, will outperform the other. My guess is that gold will because silver is still very stretched above the 200 dma. If you’ve already made the switch, I would stick with the DGP you have, no point in switching back that I can see.
Basically it comes down to no one knows which one will do better.
Or to put it another way, we’re choosing between superlatives. Either way will be a big winner.
Thanks, Pima,I think I’ll deploy the rest of my dry powder in AGQ with a smattering of DITM SLV Calls! That way I can play both 🙂
SD Jack, I couldn’t get the third chart either.
Blake,I think you are setting yourself up to overtrade. Just stay where you are and if you want to add your dry powder into SLV calls or AGQ at the cycle bottom do so but don’t go jumping back and forth trying to catch every little wiggle.
Thanks …at ease,Thought I was married there for awhile, being ignored for so long.
Use Firefox and you won’t have any trouble with charts. Internet Explorer is a POS.
Gary,Was there a problem with the 3rd chart in today’s posting?Chart won’t open either, when clicked.
Thanks, Gary and everyone else for their considered remarks. This blog is such a great and positive platform for both new and experienced traders to exchange questions and ideas. I wish everyone here healthy profits as we all ride this final C wave to the top, together 🙂
Use Firefox as your browser.
Google Chrome browser works great as well no trouble here.
Better yet, try Chrome. Faster than Firefox.
Thanks Guys.1st time a chart didn’t display for me in IE…
Dollar getting a bid?
Uhh, could someone do me a favor and tell me how many charts are in the last post?On IE & Chrome, I show 7, on Firefox 6.Maybe a phantom chart?
Love this site! Been a premium sub since new year. First post here though.
It’s comical when I peak at Kitco site now with one eye open, like a snake is going to jump off the webpage at me! Weird.
However, no pain, no gain. Let’s hope for that cycle low on friday.
Weiss Ratings has started their own sovereign-debt ratings service. The first set of ratings came out last Thursday. The rating for the U.S. puts us 2 notches above junk status — and lower than Mexico.
To add to Silver can I use the Gold tag of the bollinger band and/or the RSI oversold level on gold as a possible cycle low? Or different parameters should be used to add to Silver?Thanks
San Diego: 6 charts. And I vote for Safari (Mac)!
MG: Silver is too thin, so Gary uses gold for timing purposes. Wait for the buy signal on gold and then buy whatever silver you want.
Very funny Newman!Thanks for answering.
I use Safari, and it rarely (but occasionally) has problems. At those times I use Firefox.
I imagine there will be much better liquidity on the /YI now that margins have increased and /SI is less affordable. Good news, I think, as I’ve always traded the mini-futures — my heart can’t handle the excitement of a $25.00 tick.
First comment ever (after many moons of lurking…since January)
Bought back half of the gold futures position I got stopped out of on that spike down. I took a look at it and evaluated based on some history. I think that was attempt to push things as low as they can.
I think it’s up from here. We will see as always. I have about 85% of the position I had before that spike.
Dollar is still struggling…
jhnewman – thanks for posting the article on Weiss Ratings.. useful for global bond portfolio.
Edwin: you’re welcome.
And to all new posters: welcome!
I’m seeing one broken link in Firefox, Chrome and Safari. The chart labeled “4% correction in gold” or something like that. The image link is broken and won’t show up in any of my browsers.
Jennifer,Went thru that already. There are 6 charts in total, and that broken link seems to be a phantom.It was Newman, using Safari that clarified it for me.
To all those options traders:You may have answered already in a previous post, but are you guys rolling your options when they hit a certain delta or ask price or just buying and holding?
Hey Dan, when I buy OTM calls, I usually roll them and take some cash on the table when they get to 70/80 deltas.
Interesting action tonight, let’s see if it holds.
Sprott took a slug of cash and bought silver equities/miners, saying they are grotesquely undervalued.
That spread wants to converge.
Dan, I meant off the table
One more, Jesse posted a great chart on the ever shrinking silver inventory at COMEX.
Patience will be rewarded.
Dan,I will exit when Gary pulls the plug when reaching the top of the C Wave, then, I will probably start to short Silver via ZSL.
as a subscriber i see that gary’s chart’s vary from using the 5 day RSI and 10 day RSI, does anybody know the rhyme or reason behind when he is using one as supposed to the other? (i know what the difference between 5 day and 10 day RSI is, just wondering when he applies one as supposed to the other to a chart)
He seems to use the 5 day RSI to spot daily cycle lows in gold. I’m not sure what he uses the 10 for.
Those are basically my gold channels.
You know I’m kind of conflicted here. Today hurt so bad that I should be happy seeing PM’s catching a bid here but then in the back of my mind I want that daily cycle since that should be healthy. I’m guessing it’s not possible for today to have been it can it? But I know if we do start heading towards the daily low this week I’ll be puking. Man, I suck at controlling my emotions haha.
Ryan: make sure you have a big bucket near your computer. And then drink some nice, cold 7-UP. ;^)
Yeah, and add some whiskey to that 7-Up too. In the old days, they called them High Balls.
Not that I drink or anything…
My favorite winter drink: a 7 & 7. (Gin and tonic in the summer.)
Scotch is my poison. Glenmorangie all the way. I won’t turn down a vodka soda though. I’ll have a big bottle ready for me this week just in case.
Ryan: That’s the spirit. Turn it into a game. Do a shot every time silver drops by a dollar!!
I think that’s a good idea, would of numbed the pain a bit if I did that today!
Don’t worry. After the end of this week it’ll all come flooding back into your account — plus a lot more.
I was thinking about doing a shot for every 1% SLW drops, but I didn’t want to die of alcohol poisoning.
LOL @ SLW Trader
SLW,I’d be in hospital getting flushed out if I took a shot for every percentage drop today.Tequila is my poison…God, How I Love it So…
Got lucky in my sleep…left an order at 1521 and got fileed…gold trading 1549.20 now!! I guess that’s help my Silver position 🙂
Sophia, Thats great! Gold only traded that low for less than 1 minute!
Lucky better than skilled sometimes… 🙂
I would agree, the dollar is still puking.
I have a few thoughts.
I think the runaway move for gold is still on the table about 1600 -1650.
I think silver may continue to struggle. The gold/silver ratio seems to have form a double bottom.
I just wanted to post a quick note about options. Though Gary encourages only deep ITM options (Delta > 0.8), in a parabolic move deep OTM options can also do wonder AS LONG AS YOU keep the exposure the same.
Options have a property called gamma because of which the delta increases as the options starts getting in the money. What this means is that when the position starts moving in your favor, the delta increases but when it moves against you, the delta decreases.
So support you were planning to buy GLD 141 June calls. You can instead buy 2 July 155 calls. If you have TOS you can use the Analyze tab, and the following trades. Short ONE Jun 11 141 call, and long TWO July 155 calls. This COMPARES the two strategies (deep ITM vs OTM). Go to risk profile and select [email protected] and step of 7 and plot P/L open. This will plot four PnL curve for the next 4 weeks.
Notice that for the next week the OTM strategy outperforms the ITM strategy. As time goes by, the extra theta premium of the OTM calls will reduce returns. What is really interesting is the performance if gold does not rally. The deep ITM call bleeds PnL while the OTM call loses much less. This is because of optin gamma which works in your favor when you buy OTM calls. You can also consider ratio spreads (you go short one OTM option and long two OTM with a further strike) which have even better gamma characteristics, with a lower upfront outlay.
Good morning Gary (evening to me) – question about metal vs. miners – is it correct to conclude that the miners are leading the correction in the metal now? – and if so, do you expect the miners will bottom out 1st? – and if so will you call that out in your report please? Like you and others, I’m trying to go long both, and so would appreciate signals for both, esp. if they are at different times or days. THANKS!
ryan, im back in 100% full on puke mode also
jhne, i like the hospital plan mate lol
Damn that double public holiday in the UK sure killed my silver positions.
I woke up this morning to an 18% gap down in my x2 Silver ETF.
Buying opportunity ahead Captain!
Bill,At some point the miners should start to resist further declines in gold. But wait for a swing low on the gold chart before buying.
Not going to hold you to it, what is your guess as to how long this final C wave could last?
One long extended daily cycle?
End of June?
There hasn’t been much discussion of the 3 CME margin increases in the past week. At some point do repeated increases in the margin requirements affect the analysis of what lies ahead for the price of silver?
Let’s get this beatdown out of the way so I can put some funds to work!
In my morning reading I still see mostly bullish opinions in metals. We might need another downdraft to scare people out of positions.
Good Morning SB, This is Hi and Good-bye. Think I will stay away until the daily low comes. I am ready to load up then!
DG, sorry about answering your question so late, but I’ve been extremely busy and have had a hard time keeping up with all the posts on Blogger. My stop is now up to 1525 on gold( I’m discounting the tick down last night in GC because spot does not reflect it)Is this the final top? You really expect me to know that?:)All I can say is that my system will get me out close to the top and if it’s not THE top will get me back in on any new upmove. Looking at the charts last night (and Gary’s commentary)I do think we will have one more upmove to new highs and there is a chance it will be massive so I will try to hang in best as I can and if I do sell I will be mentally prepared to buy back quickly.
I expect quick downdraft to mark this daily cycle low based on stretched cycle. So my conditional orders are in starting @ 149 on GLD. That should get us a trend break and a recognizable daily cycle low.
I’m also long some oil that I may add to based on it’s clear daily cycle low of mid April. Easy downside definition on that one.
Thanks Veronica. No problem. My questions/comment still stand though I think. 1. How accurate has this been the past few years 2. how much further would we need to drop to fulfill the signal 3. I believe you said you would no longer say “got a sell” as this sometimes means “sell” and sometimes mean “buy.” So you previous post should have read, “My system says gold is going down now” right? How much further at a minimum? How accurate has this call been?
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