A portfolio change has been added to the model portfolio link and the stops for these positions have been added to the stops and trade trigger link.
Smart Money Tracker
A portfolio change has been added to the model portfolio link and the stops for these positions have been added to the stops and trade trigger link.
I haven’t looked at the portfolio change, yet, but I assume it is what was suggested in last night’s report.
I’ve been lookinga t charts, and to my eye, the dollar’s rally is intact until proven otherwise. The current price action is a controlled drift lower on low volume, possibly a bull flag. So, even with the low risk set up in metals (stops close by), I’m staying with cash for now. This is the kind of transition phase that if i keep trying to find my opening results in quick trades and becomes a headache at tax time. I’m waiting for a swing low on the dollar to jump on EUO (2x short Euro), DUG (2x Short Oil and Gas), and SKF (2x Short Financials).
If the PMs prove themselves, I may take a small position, but for now I see the odds in favor of the trend having shifted.
f
The cleanest setup I see at this time is to buy DUG with a swing high reversal in XLE, then add to it with a break below 72.28 on XLE. The stop would be above the pivot high. Low risk to portfolio.
I haven’t yet looked, but I imagine similar setups will occur on XLF/SKF, and SPY/SDS.
In the meantime, I feel like a bear in hibernation.
f
.
Gary,
didn’t you, a few times and not so long ago say, that you have no interest in investing in the stock market – instead, didn’t you say you were interested only in investing in the last bull standing? What changed since then? If anything, isn’t the stock market more questionable now that you say we might be at the brink of the bear returning to the markets?
.
Basil,
This most certainly isn’t an investment, just a trade because the stops are very close.
Fubsy,
I agree with your strategy. Dollar holding up well, staying in cash until swing low will add to UUP options and EUO.
Fubsy,
I was considering a position in FAZ, but was waiting due to the “probable” daily cycle low on the S&P. Curious why you would put on your SKF at the swing low for the dollar and not just wait for confirmation of a failed daily cycle? Thanks
Unless we see the dollar break the 50dmva moving average it continues to look like a bull flag formation. I honestly think all the moneys been made, trying to trade this thing is just asking to get whipsawed in and out of positions. My only holdings are my oct. puts on slv which I will sell when silver hits it’s 200dmva…whether that happens next week or two months from now.
Gary’s latest port is the anti-Tim Knight port.
Michael,
You have a sound strategy. Waiting for a swing low or a test of the low on the dollar. They are both a “test” of the low in the dollar and the confirmation which we are yet to have.
down for a few years per the venerable stock mkt almanac owner:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/dow-38000-how-to-play-it/article2023318/
Bruce,
i think you’ll find TimK bought GDX & is currently holding
Two days of huge bid-hitting in 30-year and 10-year bonds supports risk-on trade for a bit. Maybe even float into month-end.
I’m sitting tight and looking for a low-risk entry to short both bonds and stocks. Not playing the long side, and if I do, it would only be miners and into a pullback in the next few days.
My focus is on shorting stock indexes and t-bonds while waiting for the A-wave.
The SPY trade long has very little upside potential, IMO.
Michael,
With bonds getting hit hard, stocks and risk assets should be doing much better than they are.
Markets are at a turning point looking for new direction.
SB,
I am curious about your thinking behind your plan.
Short stocks I understand.
But why short bonds? If Commodities and Stocks are going into a deflationary period and interest rates are kept low or lowered as a result, would not bonds rise?
Thx SB, I saw little risk to reward on SPY, IMO Sure would like clarity
for a trend!
Dan,
I agree on the whipsaw.
SB, I agree with you that at some point, both Bonds and Stocks will go lower together…
I bought some calls in NSQ 2 days ago, just sold them at the open, no point holding positions for too long in that environment
The AAII poll is showing bulls approaching levels last seen at the tsunami bottom. That has pretty consistently led to gains. Plus the dollar is starting to get late in it’s daily cycle. If there is going to be a test of the lows it should start soon.
I’m banking on that pushing gold and stocks higher.
Today’s AAII poll shows bulls fallen all the way to about 27% of sample … “which is the lowest level since August 26, 2010, the day before the fall rally began” notes Briefing. Put-calls ratios spiked last few days. May be some juice into the whiz bang of the month end.
Shalom
Same here..Waiting for confirmation from Gary to short the hell out of this market..:-)
Fubsy got som nice ideas also.
The problem with me is that I want to trade all the time..Even when the risk/reward dont favour me.
Waiting for the right moment is not my strong side. But I must learn to wait. Be cool!
Fubsy seems to be very patient..Gary and DG also..The old guys..Then we got me!!! lol
One doesn’t get a much better edge than the first day of a daily cycle.
Confirmation to “short the hell out of the market” is a long way away. It has to take out a daily cycle low and then an intermediate cycle low before we can be really confident to short heavily.
I think bonds short might turn out to be the better of the two, only because some will run to stocks.
This will not be like 2008 though, and I believe stocks will have limited upside. Gary’s stock longs are likely to work, just nothing great was my point.
Try not to assume all the typical relationships will always hold because they often don’t. To me, bonds are already dead, and stocks are telling me they are next. One reason might be if the Fed stops buying all the treasuries for awhile bonds will certainly puke, but QE is also the reason stocks have marched higher the past year, so they could easily follow.
Either the Fed will cease QE altogheter, or it needs to put a scare into markets to justify a new program. Either way, bonds, stocks, or both will get the rug yanked from under them. My guess is only for a few months, but that;s good enough for me.
Hiccup
Banana
“The problem with me is that I want to trade all the time..Even when the risk/reward dont favour me.”-Moneyman
Not me, I got over that a long time ago. I like the easier money, if there is such a thing. 🙂
One last observation for any of us looking at any potential trade. Now more than the last several months when markets were trending strongly, it’s important NOT to chase a trade.
With limited profit potential, one cannot afford a bad fill or to miss the first several % of a move. All trades I take will be into temporary pullbacks or spikes intraday. We cannot count on the trend to correct timing mistakes.
If necessary, I’m happy to sit tight until a sure bet in commods again.
Shalom
I know that you have.
If I dont change this will be a mess.
But its hard to be patient. I dont like the emotions either..Its actually hard do change..
Maybe that is why so few succeed..:-)
Shalom
How did you get over it?
Eamonn, school’s out for the day?
Not to keep yacking here, but I do believe Gary’s long GDX trade has little downside risk and was something I looked at as well. It’s just that I want to focus on something I believe has more potential profit.
Must admit, this chart looks tempting:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CSl4ju6lENA/TdM9tFqPZAI/AAAAAAAAAbU/aXzoaZMYjsI/s1600/snapshot-699.png
Gary,
When was the long SPY trade made and at what price ?
I’ve looked back and I don’t see this trade mentioned. Can we expect trades to appear from thin air from now on ?
moneyman,
I got tired of pissing money away and draining my energy on sub-optimal trades. I reviewed my trades and the reasons for taking them.
Impatience still creeps up on me, but it does far less damage than my earlier years b/c I nip it quick.
If you know you are impatient, you’re already on the way to correcting it. In the end, we do this to make money. The excitement is a distant second. 🙂
I think all of us would love to be making trades here but we must keep in mind the past few months have been abnormally volatile. We are now back to the usual slow trending markets so the quick profits are gone. Gary’s arguments to go long here do make sense and if the dollar does finally breakdown, I will buy some long positions to atleast cover my shorts but IMO there really isn’t a rush.
The big money will be made buying in late summer and holding till the end of the year.
If Gary takes a peek at the daily 30 yr bond on stockcharts, I find it hard to believe he wouldn’t love to short ’em.
Eamonn, I recognized that banana for the beep that it was. TZ is gonna hear about this.
Moneyman,
One area to examine is position sizing. It goes a long way to quelling emotional decisions. It’s the single most important discipline in trading and it will keep you in the game long enough to take money out of it.
..
Gary is kind of a sensationalist stock picker…seems kinda like a hack to me…like I said before the only reason everyone made so much money with him is because he was going long into the silver bull… even at that lots of people at even cause of the break.. 2-3 years before precious metals (silver) resume, give me a break. Try in 3-9 months…
Wes,
I added the position to the model portfolio this morning. I posted to the website a note to check the model portfolio link for new positions and posted a portfolio change to the blog.
Was there something else I should do?
Shalom
thanks!!
This is so true. When I got a lot of money in the market its so hard to be cool. Hard to keep the position when the market is moving around. Then I just make this stupied decisions..After that I just wonder..What have I done?!?!?!
“One area to examine is position sizing. It goes a long way to quelling emotional decisions”
SB,
I’m not comfortable with bond cycles so I’ll probably stay away from bonds.
Jim,
Shows you how little you know. I almost never pick individual stocks. Almost always ETF’s. I guess your goal is to just be abusive.
Nice try though 🙂
Picked up some TWM earlier as a hedge – working good right now…
Gary,
The GDX and GDXJ positions indicate they were added 5/18. When was the SPY position added ?
I wasn’t here yesterday and I’m confused.
Is it just me, or is this getting hard to follow ?
IAG is bulletproof…
Wes, do you read the nightly reports? Look at the bottom of last nights report.
Romeo,
I must be blind. Is there something there about adding SPY ? Where is it ?
The date positions were taken is shown on the charts in the Model Portfolio.
The bottom of the report says the stock market is overbought.
Why would you add SPY into an overbought market ? Something doesn’t make sense.
I’m with Dan here. Both the dollar and Gold haven’t shown that their respective short term trends have reversed. The trade should be to enter long dollar correlated investments on any pullback or sell into this PM bounce.
My mistake I did the GDX and GDXJ charts last night. The date should read 5/19/11. I will correct it.
I decided to take the SPY trade this morning based on this probably being the first day of a new daily cycle.
Wes,
I don’t believe that there was any mention of the SPY position in last night’s report. I think it was added this morning, and Gary posted it on the blog as well on the subscriber website under (1) May 19 (New Positions) post, (2) Model Portfolio and the (3) Stop & Trade Triggers.
This comment has been removed by the author.
Wes, the comments of changes to the model portfolio are listed at the bottom of last nights report. Gary does believe we are in a new daily cycle hence the SPY. It was not mentioned specifically until this AM.
I joined Gary on the GDX trade during the dip a few minutes ago.
Tiny position and a tight stop. I have no expectation to make more than beer money off this.
The dates are now corrected.
I think we all need to understand that we aren’t in the same environment as we were the last 9 months. It’s going to be harder to make money. Trades will be shorter. There probably won’t be any long term Old Turkey type trades for some time. At least until the next intermediate bottom.
Gary,
what kind of bounce can you realistically expect on gold, gdx, spy?
The dollar appears to be doing a crawl on the 50DMA, and GDX really looks like it’s in a bear flag, and the chart of gold looks really sick…
not
Gary,
For the stop trigger, I know you stated for it to CLOSE below the stop trigger so would that mean we wait 5 minutes before market closes and sell if it looks like it’ll close at the number or wait for it to actually close and then sell at the open the next day?
Not,
You are trying to trade based n chart patterns. I’m trying to trade based on cycles.
The stock market has probably put in a daily cycle bottom. That would suggest higher prices and higher stock prices would suggest a corrective move in the dollar. (BTW a crawl along the top of the 50 DMA is negative for the dollar not positive).
The dollar is getting late enough in it’s daily cycle that it should begin the move down into the cycle low anytime.
That should drive a move up in gold and stocks.
Ryan,
You could use either one. It’s a toss up as to which one will get you a better exit.
I am reluctant to trade the SPY at this point. Any bad news could trigger a sell off. I’ll wait for a better entry point…
Gary,
I just got word that the offer I had put on a Florida condo has been accepted. I had planned to pay it off over the next 10 years. Because of YOUR guidance, I am able to pay it off NOW! Thanks again.
Gary,
I think it’s rather risky to play a brief hypothetical upward move here, and actually expected you would think so too, in a market that you are convinced has already changed or might be in the process of changing its trend to the downside. Is trying to play brief moves up in what looks like a beginning downtrend really a sound strategy?
Thanks Gary, didn’t join you on the short but I’ll take the risk and join here.
Hack,
You just got the best entry point you are going to get unless you think you can perfectly time a daily cycle low.
I find it funny that people always look for a better entry even if the rally is only one day old.
The reality is that any pullback is always seen as a big negative and they can’t pull the trigger anyway.
Basil,
I was thinking the same thing last week when silver was falling under 33.
Why would big money buy gold and silver here when the big correction is coming either now or after another small percent increase…?
Well, there has to be a logical reason because they are buying. Or, maybe its just the speculators buying.
Ryan,
What I would do is one of two things:
1) Close position a couple minutes before the close if price is below the stop sufficiently enough that it wouldn’t rebound above that price in two minutes, -OR-
2) Just wait till the close, and then sell in the after hours trading. The spread will widen a bit on GDXJ and maybe GDX, but should remain tight on the SPY. And the wider spread on the GDX and J–you’re talking at most a few cents.
Basil,
We have no solid indication that the trend has changed yet. And I don’t think I’ve ever seen a new daily cycle only rally one day and then roll over.
Most likely it will rally till it’s ready to drop into the half cycle low and then it will violate the half cycle low. That would be the point to go short.
Granted we aren’t going to make a lot of money off the trade, but we aren’t going to make a lot of money off any trades for a while.
So we just have to take what the market gives us and right now this should be a low risk long trade on the S&P.
Off to climb rocks.
Thanks Gary for the porfolio update. In on the day’s lows.
BAMSTER! Congrats on the condo buy!
Happy for you and can just imagine how happy Gary is also. Where in FL is your new Condo?
Gary,
the dollar had six up days on that recent rally from the low. That rally has only become obvious once we had already one or two up days in place. That leaves you with four or so days. Now you expect it to move down; so that trade you are in right now (if you take the dollar as a gauge) has perhaps a time frame of a week at the most, of which one up day in stocks and gold has already occurred. So it’s a 4 to 5 day trade, before then you hopefully time the exit right and then might be swinging back into a mental position of dollar up stocks / commodities down? Correct?
Ok. Got it. Thx
Good for you BAMSTER! FL on sale and
a great investment at this time.
hack, market going to turn up very soon, according to $nymo….IMHO
at ease, traderlady, Thanks.
The condo is located in Sarasota.
“traderlady said…
Good for you BAMSTER! FL on sale and
a great investment at this time.”
And you can see the ocean, that is a plus..miss Hawaii already.
PC,
Thanks for the advice I appreciate it, I would do the AH thing but unfortunately I don’t have access to it. I don’t know if it’s b/c I’m in Canada or I my broker is TD waterhouse. I will use the couple of minutes before close, hopefully I won’t have to sell these trades in the red.
The Philadelphia index was really bad this month..What is happening in USA? Lol
What are you guys doing?
And the market is up? lol
I can really feel that we dont have much time left. Me an my emotions!
Dollar down..Nicey!
Linked-In doubles in its first day of trading
That’s crazier by several orders of magnitude than silver’s run IMO…
DG or Veronica? Are you there? Can you here me? You guys got some buy or sell signal?
Gary told us that the dollar will soon go down in a cycle low..here we go! I hope
PST,
I see a lot of overhead supply on the XLE, XLF, HUI etc….My guess is that attempts to rally will be met by the shaky hand that now hold these positions long. They will sell when rallies give them an oppty to get out. I see your point about waiting for a violation of the DCL for confirmation. My trade would be a little less certain, but with the low risk stop just overhead on the XLE, I could buy DUG with a teaser position, and add if the breakdown ensues.
So, to answer you question, I think a swing high reversal on XLE would have a decent chance of continuing the drop, and its a low risk play. And, I’m bored.
f
Good choice Bamster! My town and love it! Palmer Ranch?? That’s me:)
1340 achieved.. so lets see how far this leg can run.
waiting for 1515 gold..
i’m accumulating TIP at this time
I am here. Not posting much because I have nothing useful to say. I know that doesn’t necessarily stop me… 🙂
Waiting for a rally to short into.
This comment has been removed by the author.
Chart lovers, check out these Rambus charts. 2 days old but still valid.
http://arch11.goldtent.org/?p=59827
Well said Gary!
The market has changed, it is going to be difficult to make money for few months, so we can try to grab small amounts here and there, but you are absolutely right that taking a huge position now for the sake of it is stupid.
Say hi to your favorite rock on my behalf!
Hey Fubsy: I am going to add to my EUO every 50¢ down, so next buy is at about 17.00. You adding on the way down or waiting till you see a more clear dollar bottom?
Wav_ridah said…
charts, these are bearish, correct?
DG, was wondering if you were still playing EUO.
Fubsy, and cycle lows aside, I believe we are getting near the change of momentum. Yes, sentiment is somewhat bearish now but a few weeks of going sideways to slightly up can burn that off. With QE2 ending and many people expecting a drop, perhaps the market surprises by dropping several weeks before it officially ends or the market hangs on my it’s fingernails and then drops in July.
at ease,
Yeah they are. The nice thing is we are expecting this scenario.
I still took the morning trade though. I liked Gary’s reasoning.
There goes the dollar, down to 50 day MA and looking poorly.
I suspected that you were near ..
🙂
I have a small position in gold. that’s all.
Trying to teach me not to buy and sell with emotion. Shalom said that I could start by not taking on large positions.
You wrote earlier about the difference between emotions and feelings..very interesting!
Well while you’re here and I’ll send a link to the board..Nice one! 🙂
http://vimeo.com/22439234
Its from El Teide in Spain. Seems to be a nice place!!
I’m really wanting to short LNKD at these levels.
Wav Ridah,
Was just checking as I have puts in SLV
FWIW, I would not use any double long or short etf for charting purposes because of the decay they are subject to. Maybe very short term, like a few days on hourly charts, you could get away with it.
But for charts with daily bars, I would use the underlying instrument.
For example, don’t use ZSL or AGQ as a proxy for silver because the first one is double short, the second double long. Use SLV instead, or silver futures or spot.
But, of course, I can’t. I wonder when I can start buying puts.
Make sure you’re out far enough and allow them to work. It’s very easy to get spooked out. GL
at ease,
^
At Ease: I make my serious money on these kinds of plays (euo) because I can do size when I have a strong opinion and they can go for distance. I played euo from 18 to 25 last year. Hoping for an almost exact repeat this year.
WavRidah, Have Julys. thanks
Gary,
Coming at your conclusion from a different direction, it looks to me that the rally in GDX topped out in early December from a lack of buyers. It then found buyers again in the 53-54 area in late January before running out of sponsorship again in mid April at the top of the consolidation range that is forming around 63-64. Buying volume came in again in the 53-54 area the last several sessions. So if this is a consolidating trading range for a while, the next gut check area would come in around 63 again. Unless there is a break below 53 or so on ramping volume… I’m not a trader but that’s the way the daily chart since August of last year looks to me.
The dollar has been rescued from breaking the 50DMA twice…once by the FED announcement, and then unemployment report today…they cant keep this up. It shall crack down soon.
There should be some 10-14 days of downward pressure on the USD.
Good, have a small position right now, waiting to add. So this may run the scenario I sent…
Appreciate if you keep me posted of your thoughts. Thanks!
For people for whom the big PM take-down was an eye-opener, I encourage you to do some research and take a look at some of the long-term track records of trend-followers.
If not overlaid with other strategies and exposures, riding these trends often leads to big drawdowns with 30% and 50% down from peak often par for the course. Check out performance stats for groups like the Turtles or assets under management for big-name trend-only CTAs – when drawdowns exceed say, 20%, AuM can go from many hundreds of millions or more down into the tens of millions as investors redeem and the spiral surges.
Diversification in the form of some short-term swing/counter-trend plays – not everyone’s cup of tea and not a big money-maker – is one remedy for the above. Importantly, they also keep you sharp and interacting with the market while talking your main play … the best prices last the least amount of time and if you’re not fit then …
DG and you don’t use Options either, do you?
For people for whom the big PM take-down was an eye-opener, I encourage you to do some research and take a look at some of the long-term track records of trend-followers.
If not overlaid with other strategies and exposures, riding these trends often leads to big drawdowns with 30% and 50% down from peak often par for the course. Check out performance stats for groups like the Turtles or assets under management for big-name trend-only CTAs – when drawdowns exceed say, 20%, AuM can go from many hundreds of millions or more down into the tens of millions as investors redeem and the spiral surges.
Diversification in the form of some short-term swing/counter-trend plays – not everyone’s cup of tea and not a big money-maker – is one remedy for the above. Importantly, they also keep you sharp and interacting with the market while stalking your main plays … the best prices last the least amount of time and if you’re not fit then …
Nope. Options is a whole separate science IMO if used for speculation (DITM is different). To me it’s like saying late in a career, “I’m a biologist. I think I’ll become a physicist now.” I don’t need that much leverage. To me there’s no difference between making 30% on your whole account or 200% on a 15% position, though saying “I made 200% on a trade” gives people a psychological thrill.
Michael,
Trend following diversified CTA’s will experience significant drawdowns periodically like you say. But those have usually coincided with great times to add money for investors in their funds (unless the CTA takes his eye off the ball and buys a baseball team or such).
The dollar on the weekly chart looks like it might get turned down by the downtrend line over the next 1-3 weeks. If so, we’ll have a left translated IC, and new lows will likely be in the offing.
http://tinypic.com/r/rvc605/7
Makes sense to me, especially if you are strong on your play. 🙂
I am going to play less options this time around. I did well last time, but it was risky and less sleep at night. Need more sleep and more life and balance. 🙂
I do always play DITM options. So kept profits up and losses down. But still need more sleep and balance. 🙂
At Ease: This is a long distance race, IMO. You want a good return year after year with the occasional “wow” year when conditions permit. Balance is a good idea if you plan to do this over time.
DG,
Sounds like for the long distance you play the same stocks/etfs over and under repeatedly with patience? Are you still shorting the Qs?
DG, yes planning on doing this for the long haul so looking for the type of strategies that can easily be played repeatedly with patience. Biggest lesson I learned was to let the price come to me, instead of chasing, so figured if I concentrated on making that a strategy, I would focus on accomplishing that goal and get rid of that bad habit (fear of missing the trade).
I do trade an occasional oddball ETF but rarely with serious money. I have become enamored of the euro as i cannot see how it can survive once Italy and Spain start to crack. Gold is obvious. SPY, QQQ, and IJR round out my top four ETF’s. Sometimes the 2X versions and sometimes the inverse ones, but I usually just short ’em.
I have not been short the Q’s for some time. My little plays have tight stops because I want to be sure I am well in the black for the year at the next big setup. I don’t want to blow money on stuff I do not have very high confidence in (bad enough blowing it in my high confidence plays!) I am well ahead for 2011 which gives me some leeway to go heavy at the next real opportunity.
I am comfortable with GLD most. I was so nervous being in SLV CALLS and AGQ, when I saw it hit near Gary’s high, I got out and switched back into GLD (my comfort zone). So survived that big drawdown, but then the next week, thinking the runaway was still in, lost on the GLD Calls bought that week. So didn’t lose as big, but still took a hit. Had I not been so leveraged in options and in the ETF would have been better. So going to play much less options this A wave. I play the puts now, just because they are just low cost/less funds used and not much of loss of funds. So I play the downside that way, rather than inverse funds.
DG, have you read Aftershock? Weidemeier brothers. They call for the death of the Euro. I believe they have a new updated book coming out end of July.
Just small plays now with EUO, SPY, GDX, GDXJ, puts in SLV for July. Saving funds for A wave GLD and add ons of above.
Dollar index down .5% and gold & the miners are having trouble staying positive. Again fellas. Sometime doing nothing is the best course of action.
DG
What confirmations do you look for in entering positions in EUO?
thanks a bunch for your insight!
Great stuff
Free: Hard to say. I am a tape reader. Could be a sever overbought in FXE. Could be a churn in UUP and then a slight new high on low volume. Could be hitting a falling trendline. Could be a high-volume reversal. Hard to say ahead of time, but I hope I see it. I will post (as will Fubsy I suspect) when we take the trade.
Power,
That is true, buying quality on the dip is a winner.
For all those focusing on the trading tips here (without tending to portfolio construction first) and 130% long EVER – know the nature of the beast – riding trends bareback will bring heavy drawdowns …
As rightly stated here today, it’s bet size that is the big driver.
DG,
I’m waiting for the dollar to put in a reversal. I just have the feeling of being whipsawed. Once the trend starts to show confirmations, I’ll be adding at weakness, and breakouts.
I’m really working on this patience thing.
f
Gary,
Respectfully, you are playing with people’s livelihood, retirement, etc. The worst part is that you have told people with the utmost certainty that you expect to be right. Example silver.. do I need to say anything more? No one is perfect but that kind of behavior is unacceptable. Especially when you are so lackadaisical about owning up when you have made flagrant irresponsible mistakes. If you are who you say you are then show your account statements from the past 6-10 years. Lets us be the judge of your performance. I for one will eat my words.
Here’s something to think about for all you Gary Followers that won’t be touching silver for a couple of years.
http://maxkeiser.com/2011/05/19/stacy-blog-show-me-the-silver-bubble/#more-28038
Jim: My turn. Gary is selling a service. I can’t imagine him sharing his account statements. If people do not believe he can do what he says he can, they can cancel. For myself, I have seen his strengths and weaknesses (personal and as a trader). We all have them. No shock that he does too, eh? He could have behaved better, IMO, but then so can you and so can I at times. I will use what I can of his service and not use what seems weak to me. I got called out for pointing out there is a difference between bottom-calling based on cycles (which he is terrific at) and trading tactics (like “silver will hit 50”) People are welcome to call me out, but the distinction and his abilities are now clear. Anyone who disregards this learning experience has only himself to blame. He is doing the best he can and owes us nothing, IMO. I pointed out what I thought was not done right; he resisted; done. People have pointed out your stuff as well and you probably I have not rushed to become different overnight. Neither have I. To me it’s adapt or cancel at this point. I have made a lot of money off his approach, so I have no intention of canceling, but I am (hopefully) wiser than I was.
Question to Gary and all…
If silver is broken, why would a small play in GDXJ be viable? GDXJ has many silver holdings.
Thank you.
Ramp up into the close?
Elaine,
Gary said…
The AAII poll is showing bulls approaching levels last seen at the tsunami bottom. That has pretty consistently led to gains. Plus the dollar is starting to get late in it’s daily cycle. If there is going to be a test of the lows it should start soon.
I’m banking on that pushing gold and stocks higher.
May 19, 2011 6:51 AM
Visitor, I’d call what happened in silver a mini-parabola, and I think that market will be back on it’s feet part way through the next A wave. Not sure if it will be a better place to invest, though, until the next C wave, and that could be 2 years out — I think that’s why it’s probably best to ignore it for quite a while.
Elane, (my take)
I don’t think silver is broken for the long term. I personally expect to see triple digit silver within a few years. But, then again, I am not a trader any more. I am an investor – Old turkey style. In the short term, yeah it could go down. But usn’t silver a better buy at 35 than 50?
Thank you, Michael.
So it’s more of a pure stock market play and less of a PM play?
DG, well said. Another point… Gary has changed a bit in the way he will structure the model portfolio, so as to be less volatile, mindful of people risking all their retirement, etc.
I use the other cycle information on the premium site to help get some grosser idea of timing for my 401k which has no PM option. I’m not convinced it has helped at all yet, but I really only need to do about 1/2% better per year to pay for his service.
Regarding the dollar…four days in the red, and still no swing reversal. The next day or two should tell us whether this is a consolidating bull flag or if it breaks down. A move above 76.00 and we have our right translated cycle.
DG, it looks good to me. Just waiting for this puppy to show something tangible.
f
SLV volume today is lowest since April 7th.
Veronica,
Are you here today?
I was looking at the 9 day MA, displaced 9 days, but it seems I did not save that as a “study” in TOS.
I believe you’re using the simple moving average for that, right? (as opposed to the exponential MA.)
Regarding the dollar: If this is a pullback in an ongoing uptrend, 38 percent retrace is certainly possible, and even 50 percent would not negate possibilities for continued uptrend. So far the dollar has not hit the 38 percent retrace, it’s retraced about 30 percent.
This comment has been removed by the author.
Ben,
I know it is a personal decision re: timing of investment. I just don’t think it is profitable to make broad timing statements like 2 years out it will really take off, so I’ll stay away until then, especially when everyone is trying to figure out what’s going to happen today/tomorrow. I prefer Gary’s old style of a couple years back when Old Turkey meant longer than 6 months.
Since I believe Gold and Silver will be higher a year from now, I don’t need to worry about timing issues. Is there a better opportunity in the mean time? Maybe, Maybe not. Who’s to say it (silver) isn’t bottoming here and will slowly make it’s move up?
Is playing SPY or GDX or . . . for a short play worth the effort? Not for me.
Jim,
I have followed Gary since last July. He had made amazing set of calls over this time frame.
He got everybody into silver at 18 $ (AGQ @ 55 $).
His second major buy call was in january with AGQ at 130 $ odd.
If somebody followed him on either of these 2 buy points, and even sold at 200, they would have still made a lot of money.
Short term, he got his AGQ sell call a little late but what a damage that little late did!
I will, without a doubt, continue following him and adjust my portfolio according to my risk profile. He is one of the best I have seen, IMO.
Jim,
Get real. All Gary is doing is posting his trading ideas. In no way is he managing your capital. If you don’t believe in Gary’s approach, do your own work and quit bitching.
Sincerely your,
WB
Jim,
You’re clearly not cut out for trading if that is your conclusion. Sooner or later you’ll lose it all and consider yourself fleeced by somebody else while taking no responsibility. For example, who made you listen to Gary? Will you listen to another person next time?
It doesn’t matter what suggestions Gary or anybody else makes, my results are my own, both winners and losers. Risk tolerance and position sizing are just two things that vary with every individual, so laying blame on another for your final results is way off base.
Bought some nice conservative positions in gdx, not looking to get rich here, just sticking to my plan of countering my shorts if the dollar closes below the 50dmva. Still think this thing could go either way.
Somebody call the police! Apparently Gary has been holding a gun to Jim’s head and forcing him to buy AGQ against his will!
disclosure: long AGQ, no gun at head.
no need to be complainin’
does one have to sign a disclaimer. c’mon
this is the stock market. nothing is guaranteed.
I sense a whipsaw opportunity in our future.
These big downmoves usually have two legs down, separated by a period of drift and/or a modest rally to reset sentiment before the bear crushes it again.
I think the next down move comes in June. That will mark either an IT bottom or the D-wave bottom.
Jim,
What you said can be applied to anybody from yourself to the guy you overhear in the mall.
Visitor, I expect with the way silver gets slung around that a buying op will present itself. I personally won’t make it my major position. I think if the op is a doozy, then Old Turkey through the A-wave.
Of course, that backfired on the C-wave, d’oh! If I am in silver again, I will look for more clues about when to get out, should a decent run materialize.
And basic human nature being what it is, so many people were burned that it almost ensures greater selling resistance on the way up, much unlike last time, hence the likelihood of below average returns for a while.
Another day, another comment bashing Gary.
I’ve been a losing trader every year since I started in 2006. Since I started following Gary last fall I was able to make back all my losses and actually turned profitable in March.
Stop blaming Gary for losses or lost profits and take responsibility for your own actions.
Jim, your first line says it all, “you are playing with people’s livelihood, retirement, etc” INCORRECT! If that is what you believe, then you are just bouncing around the internet going from Guru to Guru seeking someone to make all your trade decisions for you. A sure way to lose it all!
Take charge my man, own up. Risk control is only something that YOU can do. Each person has a different set of circumstances. And does Gary tell you to “GO ALL IN” on your entire net worth, retirement, etc. He has not. I think you have now seen that many people have benefited from Gary’s calls, and sure, he is not 100% right and will admit to this readily.
I think Jim just gets a kick out of stirring the pot….
If you don’t like Gary’s analysis, do us all a favor and STOP READING. GO AWAY. If you piss Gary off to the point where he says “never mind, it’s not worth the hassle” and he stops blogging, I will hunt you down and gnaw off your left gonad.
These wiggles are very strange in the markets. They sure are not saying that a weaker dollar is on the horizon. I have a hard time believing that the US Dollar is the “liar.”
Is it possible that gold makes a run up, gets marginally over 1525 and then gets hammered from there?
WIth the recent action, I know that the TA indicates we have a clear daily cycle bottom, triangle, yatta, yatta, yatta. But, doesn’t it seem like it would take just an earth moving situation to get gold back up solidly over 1500, let alone to a new high?
How is one to tell if we’re in a rally that just has run out of steam or if we care consolidating?
Volume in SIlver is dwindling just like volume on this board. When msgs here drop to under 100 a day, it will probably be time to look for a bottom.
Trading tactics based on SMT volume. hmmm, not many are doing it. It could work.
f
Its amazing how quickly something can go from media/momo darling to hohum yawner. I, for one, have almost totally lost interest in the preciuos metals complex. I just don;t think its the place to focus energy right now. Wake me up when the peaches are ripe on the trees.
zzzzzzzzzzzzzz
muttonfish,
“I will hunt you down and gnaw off your left gonad”
thank you, I was hoping I wouldn’t have to do it…
my thoughts, with the USD rallying out. this is going to put the hurt on all commmodities temporarily. and reduce some sideline speculators.
anything that really goes up might indicate a real demand need.
so i’m watching all futures to see what unfolds.
with liquidy being drawn out, will all things return to seasonality trading?
what are your thoughts on this guys?
I don’t think you can call it exactly bashing what Jim us doing. also, bashing goes both ways, and Jim shouldn’t be bashed either.
Personally I find that Gary can, at times, help me make a good decision and then stick with it. Particularly I like when he goes old turkey. The short term trades I am not so fond of and reviewing the past 18months I believe that is for a good reason. To say that Gary’s calls are ‘amazing’ across the board I consider an overstatement. Some times amazing, I can certainly agree to.
My thought are as long as no one hunts me down and chews off my gonads I’m a pretty happy camper which ever way the market goes.
I don’t think you can call it exactly bashing what Jim us doing. also, bashing goes both ways, and Jim shouldn’t be bashed either.
Personally I find that Gary can, at times, help me make a good decision and then stick with it. Particularly I like when he goes old turkey. The short term trades I am not so fond of and reviewing the past 18months I believe that is for a good reason. To say that Gary’s calls are ‘amazing’ across the board I consider an overstatement. Some times amazing, I can certainly agree to.
Let me make the obligatory newbie disclaimer and then ask, if there are no buyers out there for silver, why has the price stablized? Wouldn’t it continue to go down if no one was buying? I keep waiting for “the next plunge” but it doesn’t seem to be going anywhere. Thoughts?
T,
The easy money has already been made on the downside during the crash. Now it’s going to get tough, but silver will ultimately continue down, probably considerably below the 200 DMA by the time golds intermediate cycle bottoms.
Wow! Must be nice living in a black-and-white world! I love the “its’ all your fault/it’s all Gary’s fault” dichotomy. You are responsible for your own health (obviously) but if your doctor prescribes the wrong medicine, it’s not like that’s irrelevant. How about your mechanic? Plumber? Accountant? Lawyer? Look, if you leverage yourself like an idiot, of course it’s your fault, but like any skilled talented professional, it’s not like G is irrelevant here. Every professional makes mistakes, but most of them are a little more open to feedback about those mistakes. It’s not like I have not praised Gary to the skies. He’s terrific. The best I have seen at calling bottoms, and i have been around forever. But if pointing out a shortcoming of a professional is “bashing” I am not sure what planet I am on. For God’s sakes, I train professional at high levels of corporations and government as to how to be more effective. One of the first things I tell them is to look at your weaknesses (everyone has them) figure out what they are, and get better in those areas. He did it as a lifter. He did it in martial arts. Why not as an advisor? And how is what I am saying “bashing” anyone? If the person pointing this out is rude and accusatory that’s one thing, but there ought to be room to discuss flaws in approach.
This was interesting
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/5/17_Faros_-_Euro_Headed_Swiftly_Back_to_1.50.html
“We believe that just as the move from 1.4920 to 1.4050 was fast; the move from 1.4150 back to 1.5000 will be just as swift on the back of rising interest rate differentials, greater certainty and market positioning”
From Peter schiff! Very funny
“The crazy thing is that I’m even hearing talk about the US selling its gold to help fund its debts. That would be the worst thing we could do. The last thing we would want to sell is our gold, I mean if we sold that then that would be it, we would have nothing. The dollar would just become complete confetti.”
I don’t think you can call it bashing what Jim wrote. And bashing works both ways, so Jim shouldn’t be bashed either for voicing his opinion. I for one like a certain diversity on a blog.
I can say that Gary has probably helped me at times in my decision making process and then with sticking to that decision. I like when he goes old turkey and proves to hold with a strong hand. I am not crazy about the short term trades, and when reviewing the past 18 months or so that I am following this blog, I think I have good reason.
To say Gary’s calls are ‘amazing’ across the board, sounds like an overstatement to me. Some times amazing, I can agree to.
test
You guys are unbelievable. You’re seriously going to take the time to dissect my choice of words?
I named no one person in my post, but yes, it was directed at Jim. He made an attack at Gary. I call it bashing.
I guess this is what I deserve for feeding a troll.
If I may, I think I can add some insight to Jim’s comments. Like myself, he probably subscribed to Gary’s service because he is not an Econ Ph.D., professional trader, or charting guru. I think the term y’all like to use is newbie. Jim assumed Gary to be much more knowledgeable than him, so followed his advice. Gary can use very definitive language in his posts. Many times he doesn’t leave the less-educated reader believing there is any possible outcome other than what he has predicted. And many financial advisors will tell you that their biggest frustration is when their clients pick and chose which advice to follow. Jim followed Gary’s model because Gary announced that what he was seeing in his charts was correct. Period. No room for error. I myself ignored my greatest lesson, which is to implement sell stops to protect hard fought gains. And let’s be clear here. Unless you bought in to silver at under $30 an ounce or so or ignored Gary’s advice and used stops, there is no way you could have made money on this broken parabola. I believe Gary is very intelligent and knows what he is talking about the large majority of the time. If I could make one suggestion, it would be this: allow for the opportunity of being wrong in the posts. Use language in the posts that suggest there is room for error or other possibilities. I know this is what got me upset. Yes, I know. I have “manned up”. I have accepted responsibility for my own trades. But Jim isn’t angry for Gary being wrong. He is angry because he assumed Gary knew more than him, and Gary never left open even the slightest possibility that his projections could be wrong until it was too late. We are all human. All make mistakes. We just need to allow (publicly perhaps) for that outcome. This is not a bash. I appreciate Gary’s service. I am just trying to interpret what I think Jim was trying to convey.
DG,
“People with histrionic personality disorder are constant attention seekers. They also tend to exaggerate friendships and relationships, believing that everyone loves them. “
Man, is that you, or what? Did you realize nobody was referring to you in that last conversation?
basil,
I don’t recall anybody saying Gary’s “amazing” all the time. You already quit the site before, so cut the dramatics.
Let me get something straight. Everyone seems to think I got it wrong on silver. Let’s review shall we.
Who said to get into silver back in August of 10 and just hold on?
Who kept you holding long after everyone else was calling a top?
Who told you to fore-go stops during that time because your stops would have just kicked you out for very small gains or you would have whipsawed yourself into losses?
Who told you months in advance that if silver made it through $40 it would most likely make it to $50?
Who told you in the weekend report that we would be exiting silver on that Monday morning because I felt it was time to convert to gold?
Who knew the gap down on Monday was going to lead to a $17 sell off in only 5 days? That’s right NO ONE did.
So after getting every single call right on the money for month after month do you really think you can say I got it wrong because I couldn’t see into the future and spot a 30% selloff?
Don’t forget that not one other person in the world that I know of spotted this. So do you really expect me to see something that no one saw. Not Doc, not DG, not Poly, not Jim Rogers, not Marc Faber, not Peter Schiff, no one.
I guess people just see what they want to see, and 100 good calls don’t make up for one missed call even though everyone in the world missed the same call.
I agree, know one saw the big drop coming. Don’t let the few people get to you. You got it 99.9% right and they want it 100%. I will confess though, I did get lucky and sell on 4 25 because is was “close enough” and DG sold at the open.
Gary,
you made a fantastic call in August and you saw silver going to 50. I felt that your confidence in the C wave was an enormous assurance throughout, no doubt.
I like your cycle analysis, and that is why I am reading your report every night. The fact that you did not hit the exact top by the cent, I don’t think anyone can say that’s a wrong call, I certainly don’t.
To say in general, that your ratio of good calls to bad calls is 100:1, that is perhaps going a bit far, don’t you think? Let’s just say that your quota is a very good one.
Do you seriously think that I’m trying to say I’ve made 100 correct calls and only one missed call, or do you think maybe I was just making a point?
probably the latter 😉
you made that point very strongly though… and as far as I understood some of the above, it was less about one specific call?
I sold 12,000 shares of SLW @ $43.65, at the open, the morning Barnes resigned. I bought AGQ the next day @ $256. I sold at the open Monday morning, after the Sunday night jack. Never went back.
I sold a little soon, as AGQ rallied at first, after I sold. By the end of trading Monday I was relieved. By the end of the week, I was elated.
Best of all, I got my friends and family out with me. There were a few happy endings.
Let me point out that not one single one of you would have got lucky and exited early without me.
I’m the one who pointed out weeks in advance the 06 crash. I’m the one who weeks in advance prepared you to look for an exit at $50.
Instead of the constant badgering a simple thank you would be more appropriate don’t you think?
Gary
Please stop trying to defend yourself. Your statement on calls is spot on and know one can take that away from you.
I just hope you don’t throw your arms up one day and say ” too hell with em. I quit” and stop the blog. I would be greatly disappointed as would many others.
Gary,
I agree.
Thank you!
MD
Gary. I think the whiners don’t realise how lucky they are to have you.
Now, I have a question for you. Given that the stock market’s current intermediate cycle is in Week 9, and its normal cycle range is 18-24 weeks, would you think equities will be seeking an intermediate low sometime from the middle of July to the end of August, and that following that low we should see 2-3 left-translated intermediate cycles leading to a stock market bottom in late 2012 or early 2013?
Gary,
I have all my pm holdings in a couple of well managed mutual funds, and I don’t trade them, so I am probably as unbiased as anyone who posts here. Been a subscriber since last June, and your recommendations on silver have been brilliant, even though I didn’t take advantage of them. Thank you!
Gary,
Don’t let the angry people get to you seriously. Thank you for all you do here.
Everyone else,
I’m in the group that didn’t get out in time SO WHAT (and yes it was a very substantial amount). It was my trade and I’m the one that decided to try to hold on. It was a wild ride and what a learning experience. If it wasn’t for Gary, I wouldn’t have even been able to hold through the Japan low in the first place. For the lucky one’s that got out or converted to gold, I have a very strong suspicion that it was Gary’s guidance that helped them so he deserves a HUGE thank you.
Actually, I wasn’t reading you then, but I listened to 2 of your interviews on Bullion Bulls. I was very impressed with your cycle analysis, and did factor your predictions into my investment strategy.
You mention AGQ. I also read about it repeatedly on the SLW message board. Turd Ferguson also said AGQ was a good choice in his 1 hour radio interview.
The most important point is, I factored all the input I was receiving, and made my call. Unless I hand someone authority to trade my account, then was up to me to make the trades.
PS I really believe my experiece with Home Solutions (HSOA), gave me an advance degree on market manipulation. I sold because Sunday night was a drive by shooting, not a correction. Almost nothing traded, and silver went down $6 in 10 minutes. I called the manipulation technique, “The Midnight Jack”, and cried bloody murder when they did it to HSOA. This time I realize what it meant. Get out!
Smart Money Tracker Death Pool:
If you guess the person who finally posts the comment that makes Gary close the site you win a burrito.
Ladies and Gentleman:
Can we please right here, right now just agree we can’t change the past? We can learn from what just happened and take our own lessons away? We are here to learn from each other and make money. Let’s not get caught up in some long drawn out spasm of guilt, anger, blame, etc.
Can we now move on and let the past be the past? Let’s hold any future poster who decided to bring this up as well to stop it dead in it’s tracks. This all feels like a giant waste of time, energy and effort that can put to use pursuing today and tomorrow’s opportunities.
E,
That would be my best guess.
This intermediate cycle could even still end up being left translated hence why I want to exit the SPY trade as soon as I think the market is ready to head down into the half cycle low.
gary
i think you have had many thankyous. you have had many from me. i have a few grips every so often, but i have a few grips with God also.
so again thankyou for your knowlege and shareing with us.
Just for the record, David Morgan called the top, sold, and said the CME would raise margins. He also called the top in ’08, and I ignored him. That time I rode 16,000 shares of SLV down to $9. When I heard his call, and saw Sunday’s action, i figured he was tipped off. Just like Gartman gets tipped off, IMO.
Thank you for that Gary.
I know you mentioned that we could be spinning our wheels for a year or so after the a-wave while we are waiting until the c-wave starts getting going again. BUT, what’s wrong with investing in a 1x inverse etf of the stock market during the time precious metals are in the doldrums? Surely that is a good opportunity? As far as I am aware cycles can be used to track the daily and intermediate cycles as before. I’m not a pro like you so maybe I’m missing something? Thanks for any thoughts
I got in late and lost some when I held on too long. My fault. All of the hand wringers, finger pointers and cry babies should realize the great value they get here and learn to be constructive and civil when they disagree. Take responsibility for your trades.
This is the best blog I know of with much to learn from Gary and the community. The best money making opportunities lie ahead.
Gary,
I say fuck’em. You have nothing to prove. Nobody is going to get it right 100% of the time. N O B O D Y. Its easy to look back and say we should have done this or that after the fact. Imagine for a moment that the sell off would have occured 1 day later, one measley day later…You would be a freakin hero today. Some people on this board would have named there next child after you, whether it was a boy or girl… CNBC would probably have called you to go on there show… You would have been the next judge on American Idol…and sadly, you would probably have had to closed this blog because of your commitments. and then what…These same people would probably be begging you to stay on, throwing there loads of cash at you to stay, the cash YOU helped them make…
So take a bow, keep your chin up, and know that are alot of people on this board that you have helped and go with that. CHEERS.
E,
Bear markets are tough. Much tougher to make money in than bull markets. I will try to make money in the bear but everyone has to have realistic goals. We aren’t going to get rich in a bear market.
BTW Morgan had been trying to call a top in silver for months. If you listened to him you missed most of the move.
OK, thank you, Gary :o)
Gary,
I had a boss that no matter how great a job I did, the most he would say, was don’t take it to heart, cause one ah sh*t will wipe it all out. I thought he was just a strange bird, but I liked him, so took it in stride. Of course I never did have an a sh*t moment…. that he ever knew about. 😉 I never wanted to let him down as he was a good boss, in the pits working along with us.
Your words are out there for thousands to read and pick apart to suit individual needs. Folks interpret things differently, remember I told you I take things literally, which gets me into trouble or keeps me out of it, just depends on the circumstances.
I believe DG was pointing this fact out that because you are out there on the public waves with your service, you are being held to a higher standard by the words you use. I have heard you say that you have a thick skin, but I also see you react to folks who have got hurt or hurting still and haven’t moved on with the task of making money. Gary may come off as a tough guy, but he has been where you are, he learned by experience also. He knows what you are going through.
No one is perfect, no one can do it all, no one can be all to everyone. But I think overall Gary you do a damn good job for the majority of folks you are trying to help who heed your warnings and listen to your advice. There are other resources out there to verify Gary’s work or to disagree, but one must use their own judgement in whatever or whomever they choose to take advice from.
And folks who got hurt or still hurting… we all were affected to some point. You can’t move forward until you leave the past behind. Learn from what happened to you and prevent it from happening again. I would love to go back to 2008, 2009, 2010 and rehash if only I knew, but who has time when the future is where your money making is. Let it go and move foward or you will be stuck afraid to try and make any more.
Can we just all move on and put this lesson behind us?
Let’s get back to making money as a team and let Gary do what he does best and concentrate on deciphering the cycles and signals as he does so well and lead us through the mine fields.
Thank you Gary for your work and dedicated efforts. It is greatly appreciated. I know I couldn’t do what you do, and I do admire your skills, efforts and results.
JMHO
And I reiterate, here, if I reach $1 million before this bull is over, Gary is getting an all expenses paid trip to Mount Everest from me :o)
ohhhh Gary!
… YOU have made such a great impression upon me with your work, that “Folks” has now become ingrained in my vocabulary. 🙂
Your right, he had. He even scared me out one morning, but I jumped back in. He obviously was surpised by the “Wynter Benton”/Max Keiser movement.
This time though, he said he sold. It was different. Besides, Sunday night made it seem more believable. I got out and just waited for it to stop. Pretty much still waiting, exceprt for a few SLW shares I bought today because of impending crosses in the MACD and the 5 and 10 tomorrow. Maybe a move to the 50 DMA, if I’m lucky.
I definatley think the big money comes after QE3’s announcement, whatever they name it next. I’m sure we will tank first, what you call a D wave, which will make QE3 necessary.
I wouldn’t read this blog if i didn’t realize you offer a unique view of the market. Fer example, I never heard of a Blees, I just relied on Ted Butler’s interpretation of the COTs.
I’m just saying everyone needs to factor all data available, make a decsion, and then live with it. I got lucky this time, but my previous experiences with HSOA, Lucent Technologies and 2008 SLV were very helpful.
I don’t agree with you though on the topic of market manipulation. It seems so obvious. The concentrated short position demands it, and makes it possible.
Gary,
My family depends on my trades to live. Before finding this blog and your reports I was under tremendous stress knowing the responsibility that I carry daily to make ends meet. Your reports and access through this blog has made my life and that of my family’s 100% better.
I realize you do not need the membership fees and can survive from your trading alone. Thank you very much for the effort you go through to assist my family and many others like me.
M
Michael, great post, and thank you. All the Best in you trades
don’t rule out the C wave yet Gary … i think we’re going up up up including silver, but we’ll see
I’ve got news for you most of the commercial positions are miners hedging production. There is nothing in the COT reports that says who owns what positions. Hence there is no way to know who the shorts are. The conspiracy theorists like to speculate that it is some evil bank but the truth is there is no way to know.
Now let me ask you this. These big banks have some of the best traders money can buy do you really think these people are so stupid as to short a parabolic move in silver?
Just a little common sense is all that’s needed here. Unfortunately the conspiracy people only see what they want to see and common sense gets tossed out the window if it interferes with their version of reality.
don’t rule out the C wave Gary, I think we’re going up up up and away, including silver
Thanks Eamonn, All the best to you too.
Gary knows he can’t quit. We’d all fly in to the desert, hire the best “Crocodile Dundee” equivalent of a Vegas rock climber to find him, then sit him in front of a computer to analyze charts all day under lock and key.
Casey, good idea. No harm in having a contingency plan
Casey, that post was hilarious.
re: the people who are STILL whining about the silver plunge last month:
Grow up. You’re not saying it in as many words, but you are in essence asking Gary to be unrealistically good.
Gary: you have the patience of a saint. PLEASE do not let these people get to you. The silent majority loves your service and we understand that while you will be (and indeed, you have been) right the vast majority of the time, sometimes you will be wrong. Last month you were “wrong” by a whoppin’ 24 hours and that, to some people, is evidence that your system, the system that has made little old me me gobs of money since last summer, needs a substantial change.
Me, I look at your record since I joined in August and I say to myself: this guy gets them right way more often than he gets them wrong. I’m not going to look that gift horse in the mouth.
Eric Sprott, who is in the silver busines, thinks it’s rigged by the shorts. You’re right, I should have said The Bank Participation Report, and the declared derivative positions indicate the concentrated short position. Bart Chilton, CTFC Commissioner, acknowledged the position, and persistant manipulation. If that’s not enough, and it should be, how do you think these banks trade profitably every single day, for entire quarters. Even you couldn’t do that. In fact, that’s what gave Madoff away!
I really don’t understand what are those whining people thinking!!?? Gary provides a pay service, if anybody is not satisfy with his service, just cancel it!! What are the complaints good for? If you complain a restaurant is bad, do you still go back to eat and spend money????
jackdog said…
You got to love this group, especially the ones who want to make money and willing to share info on the how toos. Gosh am I glad I found Tobby and his Gang!
This comment has been removed by the author.
jackdog said…
Thanks Gary
Great report tonight Gary. Thank you for your hard work.
Do comex options expire tomorrow as well as equity options?
Follow-Up. Assuming both equity and comex options expire tomorrow does anyone know exactly what time each expire?
The VIX is near a 52 week low. That can only last so long. Maybe until the end of QE2, which is the only thing keeping it there anyway.
What better way to make QE3 possible, than to help the market run to highs at the conclusion of QE2, and then crash as soon as it’s over? Soon the necessary QE3, renamed, would be announced, and welcomed by investors.
If the Fed’s calling the shots, and I believe they are, that seems logical. Not a stright line up, but a rally through June.
No matter, I agree with Gary. The sure thing is to wait for the implosion, sometime in the next few months, and then buy the Fed announcement. Peter Schiff also buys this scenario.
Gary,
I’ve never left a comment on this blog. But I had to jump in and say thank you. I’ve been trading for a number of years and never met anyone like you on any other site. You care and you show it. And, you have helped me with my trading immensely. Thank you for all you do.
Dan
Gary-“Instead of the constant badgering a simple thank you would be more appropriate don’t you think?”
Gary,
Spent the day with the kids again…I didn’t follow you exactly(I adjust for my risk tolerance and style), but couldn’t have had such a PM ride without your work, which puts what I can do alone on steroids…So thanks! Love the letter and what you do for us…
I look forward to the frank debates about issues again…but we seem to still have anger issues again. I will say this though, every trader blows their account at one point and it is our fault, and from this experience we really learn about risk, leverage, etc. I mean if you bought silver at 17, even now you doubled.
I frankly would like to look more into this D-wave(or d-wave to come) a little more…a debate about issues, not about people. But any questions I have about this will need to wait, as it will be viewed as a personal attack instead of a constructive mental exercise in comprehension and learning.
Alright back to what I do best…ZZZZZZZZZZ
Bullion,
Options expire Saturday, so you can trade the May’s until 4PM tomorrow.
Bullion,
That’s for equity options.
Yea…..what Dan said.
Thanks Wes. But do Comex expire tomorrow as well? And do you know what time they expire?
It’s interesting but it seems like the options traders would want SLV to be at $35 for max pain but the Comex folks would want the futures to be at $35. If they expire at different times there may be an opportunity.
Hey Gary GDX is sportng a nice W pattern, looks like a breakout in the works.
Oh, and thank you.
There actually seems to be little interest in the Comex options at $35 but huge interest in the SLV options at $35 so it is in the option folks interest to get SLV to $35 if I’m thinking about this correctly. Any thoughts?
Or Bullion trader there is alot of sold calls at that price to keep it under for tomorrow.
Bob,
I assume you are talking about the $35 strike price. Are you talking about SLV or Comex?
Also, do you know when Comex expires? I think it is 2:15EST.
I don’t see alot of volume for Comex May calls or puts.
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver_quotes_settlements_futures.html
Open interest is minimal until July or am I missing something here.
Hey Bob,
Could you post the GDX “w” pattern on your blog?
thanks!
Gary, Just catching up on todays comments.
Thank you
I still sometimes wonder why you have a public blog and take such abuse sometimes. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. But anyone who has actually traded or invested has to be amazed at your track record. Nobody gets every call or trade right. It’s great to listen to other views that you might get on the blog but please don’t let some of the comments frustrate you or change what you do. I am actually down in my account since I began following you but I own made trades and i didn’t pull the trigger on the gap down and convert to gold like the original plan because I like most was over confident and was counting the money before I cashed out. I started to sell futures early that morning against my account near the top and would have avoided the draw down but I didn’t. I was greedy and got burned. You never held a gun to my head on the trade! Like you said nobody saw a drop like what happened in advance. But I do need you to hang in there and help me make it back like I am sure you will. Again “Thank You”
Thanks
RQ
“Central banks purchased 129 tons of gold in the first quarter, more than the combined net purchases during the first three quarters of 2010, according to the World Gold Council.”
Count me in with the ones who are thankful to Gary for what he does. I lost on the C-wave like many did, but in no way do I hold Gary responsible!
Another thing — there was nothing wrong with Gary’s plan, and he did NOT make a mistake…the market just threw us a curve ball, as it does from time to time.
beep
Jim
Just some random thoughts
Gary => has a 200 buck a year newsletter with no obligations. He has a pretty good system (my opinion). He wants everyone to make money. Until the hostility started in here, he backed the recommended portfolio with his own money. (He has skin in the game)
Stockbrokers => don’t care if you make money or lose money on your trades, they just want your commissions, the more the better. They generally don’t have their own money in their recommendations to you. (They have no skin in the game)
Retirement Fund Managers => have an obligation to protect your investment. They managed to wipe out millions of peoples retirement funds during the crash anyway. They probably don’t put their own money in their recommendations (no skin in the game). They legally have their hand in your pocket from the day you sign up to the day you are burried whether you make money or not. I believe the term is “robbers”
Or => you can do your own thing….
Choose your poison 🙂
In Demark land, we hit an exhaustion point on the S&P of a DAILY qualified break around 1320 futures on Tuesday. NDX did not reach its target, tho. We are still in a 1-4 bar MONTHLY window for S&P sell signal going through August. Silver has qualified a downside break of 36ish with a target of 28ish. 36 level should now be resistance.
Still waiting for that final exhaustion level of 72.5 to be hit in the Dollar Index for a MONTHLY buy signal, good for a year after it finally records. We got very close, eh, 72.69, but we have one more trip down corresponding to what Gary has mentioned about the daily cycle in the dollar. After that the 2nd mouse gets the cheese – and I would look for a strong dollar rally to emerge this summer.
Coolkevs,
Good stuff. Do you make anything of the action today where the SPY was not strong compared to a weak dollar. Same trend carrying overnight?
What does it mean if the dollar weakens but SPY/Gold don’t catch a solid bid? Warning sign?
Gary,
I don’t think you should waste your time explaining and talking about when you adviced to exit the Silver trades.I am still thinking that you have a crystal ball:) and how corectly you had predicted the entire move in Silver.
Most of the new and old traders must understand that this is not a game about exiting and entering few pips more or less.This is about turning points and to be in the market or out of the market at the right time.I personaly exit my possition at 46.50 and 49. I was early ,but decide to be safe and that’s because I listen your advices.
Hot Rod,
The dollar topped 4 days ago and the stock market bottomed three days ago. Seems like a pretty tight inverse correlation to me.
Gold has gone from $1471 to $1500 in the last three days. Again a pretty tight inverse correlation.
Miners are up 4% in the last 5 days. Again seems like the relationship is holing rather well.
My gold futures system just went to a buy.
v
is that a buy = buy
or buy = sell?
if it is a buy, where is your stop?
It’s a buy, and the way the algo runs it’s long now without a stop but the stop could institute quickly depending on price action.I’m personally using the lows as a stop at around 1462.
Farm Girl,
Yeah, I believe that absorbed what Soros and some other funds were reportedly selling…
I think Gold is going down from here,maybe maximum test 20 MA at 1510
Those looking for a nice trade for the next 3-4 weeks may want to look at corn and soybeans. Both commodities are against resistance now, but flagging. Major weather problems are causing planting delays, causing acres to be diverted out of corn and into other crops. If you do not have a commodities account, you could trade it using the grain ETF JJG. http://screencast.com/t/cXzuQwVpAb9w
.
Thanks Veronica for the buy signal!
🙂
The currency market is very volatile. Dollar up..Down..up a lot..And then down again..
Just when you think the USD might have a sustained move lower, the EUR reasserts itself as the world’s trainwreck currency. Not to be outdone, however, Fed president’s Dudley and Evans decide to simultaneously release their views that more easy money is still needed to achieve the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and full employment.
We truly are in a race to the bottom!
PST
Lol! 🙂
Quick, somebody better line up Ms. Yellen for some more dovish comments in case the weekend elections in Spain put any additional pressure on the Euro.
Veronica!
What kind of system do you have?
Algo and stuff..:-)
Seems that you got a buy signal in gold. Thats good!
How valid is it?
Yeah Yellen and Bernanke in the same helikopter.
Gold in a ever narrowing consolidation range that will likely break sharply in either direction, dollar inspired.
All those needing to jump ship after the cycle ending bloodbath have done so, now it’s time to gallop.
CCI giving SLW a buy signal.
http://screencast.com/t/pnTAiHxZCzs
Polly
I know that Gary wants gold to trade above 1526..11 maj!
I already got a small position in gold now. I now that you also got positions in gold.
When will you add some more? For sure wants the dollar to trade under 50dma..
I have more than enough if she moves, so I won’t add more. The setup doesn’t warrant a larger outlay.
Someone asked me to post my view on GDX.
http://arum-geld-gold.blogspot.com/2011/05/gdx-is-ready-to-rumble.html
From Crowder Options blog, seemed appropriate for this crowd so I’m sharing:
There are quite a few indicators that have pushed into bearish territory along with a few studies that I have looked at over the past few weeks.
One such study is from Nautilus Capital an institutional research firm that I find to be very savvy in the type of research they present. They recently stated that cyclical bull markets within secular bears have tended to average just 26 months, with an average gain of 85%, while cyclical bears within secular bears have averaged 19 months, with steep average losses of -39%. Market cycles tend to be truncated during secular bears, averaging a full bull-bear cycle duration of just 45 months (3.75 years), for a full-cycle average gain of just over 12% (3.3% annualized). Of course, fundamentals still tend to grow faster than 3.3% over the cycle, resulting in valuations that are lower at each bear market trough, even if prices are higher in absolute terms. I recognize that outcomes like these are unpleasant and inconvenient to contemplate, but denying the possibility doesn’t make anyone a better investor.
We are currently in the 26 month of a cyclical bull in a secular bear and I think the 39% drop is not too much of a push. A 39% loss would bring the S&P back down to close both of the gaps I discussed yesterday and would fall right in line with my prediction over the 9-12 months.
EUR/USD broke down from the 4 day rising wedge. Let’s see if we get that dollar bull flag break out today.
Just my $.2, but I wouldn’t be long PMs here (or short for that matter either).
We are due a D-wave. We are due a regression to the 200 DMAs. And we are due for QE2 to end soon.
Yes, I do believe QE3 is inevitable, but “when” is the question, and based on the announcement of QE2, you won’t gain much advantage by trying to frontrun the Fed.
Turning Japanese,
It used to be my 2 cents, now you gave us 20 cents. See what Fed policy is doing.
Russell,
Yes, the great multiplier effect!
Could be the dollar breaking out of it’s bull flag?
“Could be the dollar breaking out of it’s bull flag?’
Certainly a possibility.
Weeee! Welcome to the summer roller coaster. Strap in and enjoy the ride.
More manipulation today. Under the cover of the already played fake news story, that Greece wants to leave the EU, PMs are attacked on OE day again.
How can anyone not see through this?
The miners are definitely lagging the metal this morning.
Mark,
What does that mean, should we hold on?
Metals are just responding to the strong dollar.
Long SPY – found the entry point I wanted…
Maybe we should start calling it the “less weak” dollar? Given our fiscal situation, there is nothing strong about it!
Looks like dollars breaking out of it’s bull flag after all
If the buck can take out 76.0 it will be on.
I think on Monday, the Greece story will be proven false, like last time, and the dollar will resume it’s decline, but investors pockets will be lighter, thanks to another “OE jack”.
The dollar is strong because of the commodities and shares selloff. When shares and commodities are sold, they must be exchanged into dollars, increasing the demand for $, thus increasing its price.
It’s the lightening that makes the thunder, not the thunder that creates the lightening..
The Silver chart is looking rather predictable this morning.
No. The dollar is strong, because the Euro is being manipulated down. If you look at the DXY, that is the true dollar index.
The silver parabola is broken. It may bounce a bit if gold drifts higher but ultimately by the time the current intermediate cycle bottoms I expect silver to be considerably below the 200 DMA.
Mark
Why manipulera down the euro?
Manipulate
How exactly does one manipulate the $EUR-$USD pair?
When QE ended, gold went up and the market went south.
I am long gold and short oil. I bailed on GORO and GDX, and X though.
Gary,
I’ve been looking at the various cycle counts. Are we counting calendar days or trading days? Sorry for the naive question.
Trading days.
Bob LH, why did you bail on GDX?
I am curious what the Blees ratings are for Gold and Dollar this week.
Gary, when do they publish this weeks report?
Thanks
3:30 pm
interesting, gold is up now much more than it went down, it even jumped out of the falling channel… That means it is not moving contray to the dollar anymore.
But miners are still lagging, probably because spx is still down?
Gary, ETA for intermediate cycle bottoms?
20-25 weeks
POP!!!!
Whats up With the Market? gold up together With the dollar.!?!
Mark, today euro sink was due just because Bundesbank’s mounthly report coming out today concerning stop future growing of germany.
Miners still underperforming the metal.
Again, not a currency expert, but I don’t believe that this is manipulation; it’s just the normal ebb and flow of foreign currencies in response to macro news and conditions.
Poly, central banks do forex interventions (buying the domestic currency) to stabilize their currencies. Personally, I don’t really consider this manipulation as much as it is monetary policy. Often fx interventions are planned and announced (case of Japan), but there are instances where it’s done subversively (such as what we accuse China of doing).
Trond, I think that there is truth to what you are saying since most commodities are priced in dollars. However, I think that the effect is most pronounced when you see the unwinding of large amounts of carry trades. I think that many traders were likely shaken out during the initial move in the dollar back in early May though.
Action here has conviction.
Miners have lagged all 2011, I wouldn’t look at them until the IT cycle low.
what happened? gold & silver jumped
So Gary
We could have another 4-5 months before the start of the A-wave
Alright. If gold can just gain another $150 today, my May GLD calls will be ITM!!
WOOT!
😉
if GDX goes up from here, would you call this a coil?
Dollar Up à LOT! Stock Market down but gold and some commodities are up..the big surprice is oil..can someone explain?!
“And that is it for today’s performance.
Tank you for coming, drive safely.”
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Hot damn,
Purdy reversal…bot me sum dat barrick outta dat base..
yeeey hawww
Hagerty,
No this will be the final leg up. Of that I about 90% certain.
Gary: Final leg up for the C wave correct? We will still get the A wave later this year?
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Poly
EUR-USD.
C’mon, it’s FX! It’s London. It’s major bank alumni spread far and wide thru central banks and ratings agencies etc. It’s untraceable messaging thru a Bloomberg. It’s immediate signaling after major block trades cross OTC etc. It’s the instant FLOWS message that goes out to VIP hedgie clients. Far worse things go on too.
I’m off to the rocks.
Rock on!
Gary
Final leg? Higher High in gold? Or just à small rally higher? Maybe to early to say but gold is rising With the dollar..
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/zimbabwe-trade-diamonds-gold-it-prepares-launch-gold-backed-currency
At ease, was stopped out when it busted down out of the triangle for GDX.
DG:
Just went long EUO. Nice pivot yesterday at 17.30. My stop is below that. With Greece blowing up this really depends on the response of the EU, so I figure its a good low risk entry. Small position. Risking less than 0.5% of the portfolio.
Of course, Italy, Spain, Portugal etc…are all in the wings. If the Fed can really hold off on QE for a while, this may have a move in it.
What do you think here?
f
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Nice move in Gold today too. Interestingly, both gold and the dollar seem to be benefitting from safe haven status in relation to the issues at the EU.
f
gold is stronger than silver?
Get used to that.
Margins have allotta people gun shy on silver… who can blame them… AND it seems allotta people know a d wave approahing.
Fusby, on the hierarchy of risk funnel, the dollar is second best and gold is best.
I am not surprised in the least, this happened last year when Europe got into trouble.
gary W T F**** are people wining , do not let it get to you, let them cancel subscription, they wil not because there is no one more accurate then you are, get rid of this negative energy, mario.
Used the drop to buy a few more SLw @ $34.09, and start a position in GDXJ @ $35.15. Still, I’m only 20% in. During the AGQ days, I was 150% in.
I’m so sure silver is going back to the $40s before the end of QE2, but I’m more sure that there will be a flush when QE is done, and a rally when it’s resumed. You shouldn’t swing and miss, if you wait for the lob down the middle.
Cody, that line reminds me of Donald Sutherland in Kelly’s Heroes.
Does anyone here read Jim Willie. His predictions are uncanny. His insight is spot on. If you want the scoop on the dollar, read Jim.
Does anyone here read Jim Willie. His predictions are uncanny. His insight is spot on. If you want the scoop on the dollar, read Jim.
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I’ve read Jim Willie now and then since he used to post over at Silicon Investor. His macro analysis is good, but he has always seemed to be way early. I’ve never seen a way to make shorter term use of his analysis (half year or so). He gets the big picture though, my opinion of his writings which I’ve come across.
Gold Breakout
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p65931008006&a=234819148
This move today has the highest volume of this Daily Cycle. Getting past the May 10th high of $148 will confirm the move AND make this a RT daily cycle, giving it the authority to challenge the high;s, IMO.
Gold made it back to the 18 DMA.
Gold is also real close to the top of the narrowing BB (10,1.9).
Looking back at prior C wave tops, it would touch the top of the BB and pull back from there (assuming the C wave top is in).
Could this be a possible breakout from a coil, where the next move is a reversal?
Parabolic SAR is at 1521 (yesterday) and falling.
In other words, there is room for optimism but also big hurdles to get there.
Veronica, nice call on that long gold this morning. One would have made a nice trade if they were able to stomach the crush and buy down there under 1500.
For a few reasons, gold is no longer performing as though it is in a D wave (yet).
A D could have been argued up until, say, the last 24-48 hours, but that has now become much harder.
I’m aware both gary and doc are open to gold resuming higher for possibly one more cycle and maybe that’s all I’m picking up here.
Gold is in a daily triangle which will be unlikely to break to the upside on a friday. Nevertheless, the action is causing me to consider/examine the possibility of going long gold possibly in the next few days (with a very tight stop as always) if we do get a break higher.
Lots of big news and conflicting signals. EU starting to rip apart. Germany tipping to recession. Norway wants to stop paying Greece (Who was downgraded again today). ECB is having trouble continuing to support the bailouts. And Japan is tipping recession as well.
(All those stories on Bloomberg and ZereHedge).
I can see the next collapse down ala Hoye “Peak Everything”, but I continue to wonder at what point the world collectively starts realizing where this is all heading and just starts buying gold regardless of anything else.
So. I’m still cash and in the camp of “things have changed and we are now going lower”. HOWEVER, if gold isn’t performing as a D yet (it isn’t), then I will be inclined to not be completely uncovered if it resumes and keeps going up here. (With small stops).
The best resolution from my view would be NO break higher in gold from this daily triangle (or a single day fakeout), a resumption lower, and a clear pullback of everything into another liquidity crunch for the summer before the banks start printing again.
I would prefer to not have to face a climbing gold price that tends to make me question my concept of what is going on here.
The overriding concern, of course, is that in a gold bull (or perhaps a generational collapse situation) surprises happen on the upside.
Clearly many of us are out and waiting. Expecting lower gold.
But as always I like to examine “what if I’m wrong” and the consequences thereof.
I can believe what I want, but if gold continues marching higher I don’t want to be out just to be stubborn. (Using my tools, of course, to take entries with limited risk).
So we’ll let this play out over the next few days and see.
(PS: don’t forget the US is now at the debt ceiling too and borrowing from govt pensions with no indication whatsoever of a congressional fix anywhere soon. Like I said they system is getting crazy again and I’m not comfortable sitting uncovered on paper.)
TZ–
you expressed my sentiments better than I can– Thank you 🙂
Thanks Veronica on your signal, 🙂
Does the dollar look like a bull flag? It doesn’t look very weak to me despite all the bias i have of wanting it to go down
“Clearly many of us are out and waiting. Expecting lower gold.”
Well technically, lower gold as the next move is not supported by any cycle. They only indicate a coming low, just not what happens this month, which is what you seem to be discussing
Let’s talk about silver for a minute. It looks like it has an anvil around its neck or a cancerous growth or something. Yes, like the other day, it can outperform gold and spike higher when it’s way oversold, but it has been basing pretty heavily and is just not “reaching for the sky.”
Let’s say that gold does gain 5% and gets to a double top or so. 5% in silver (if it performs equally) is $175 or about $37 give or take.
This tells me that silver is very unlikely to get back to $40. In fact, wouldn’t it be a winning position to start accumulating loads and loads of shorts/puts here, on the way up?
On a separate note, if you were a miner or industry hedger, wouldn’t you be hedging up the wazoo at these prices? With so much risk for downside, why not lock in these prices at least for the next 6 to 12 months?
Unless of course, you think silver is snapping back on supply issues to $60….
Hot Rod,
Bought ABX.to and WJA.to at the close yesterday with the methods I wrote about a few days ago and sold this morning with a small profit.
Mr. Miyagi,
Good ones. Yeah, you are very good at those.
Keep me posted on the next ones you are eyeing – maybe I’ll give ’em a try.
😉
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Hot Rod,
Looking at COS.to and maybe BNS.to if it goes under 58.50$.
Some days there’s nothing…
TZ,
Peter Schiff has had the same theory since 2008: i.e., sure, gold tanked hard in the 2008 liquidation event like everything else, but Schiff says that was a giant head fake, and it won’t happen again. In other words, the USD will NOT be where everyone runs for shelter the next time. If we get another scary sell off in equities (not necessarily as big as ’08, just a big sell off) gold could race higher.
That said, I’m not committing serious capital to gold until Gary calls the beginning of the A wave : )
Let me put one more spin on my comments as I’m thinking.
In 2008 few people knew what was happening, where it would lead to, and what the collective world/govt/bank response would be.
Now everybody knows:
Print like hell.
Paper over everything.
Keep spending.
Deny everything.
Admit no responsibility of anyone.
So in 2008 gold dropped 30% in the panic and only recovered later when people settled down and digested the news.
But if we have another liquidity/debt crunch now, couldn’t we argue that everybody “gets it” this time?
Should we expect gold to have another similar selloff if the world dumps again?
Usually markets don’t do the same thing twice in a row because after the first time it happens people expect, prepare for, and nullify it happening a second time. If everybody knows what will happen…so they sell gold…and wait…to buy it at that ‘bottom’ of the crunch – like they have been trained to do. Well…then often it won’t happen like that. Generally that situation would result in 1) little to no drop and 2) a relentless climb that begins with people out and watching until the capitulate back in.
Doesn’t everybody now know the answer is gold?
So, anyway, I wonder what gold does THIS TIME if we get another crunch like LAST time.
The Masters showed everyone what they can do in silver when positions get lopsided. Coming into a typically seasonally ugly 3Q with market still very long commodities – and significant divergences in many markets like emerging markets failing to make new highs – there is a high risk that Euroland newsflow will come at longs hard. Tight leash on all long positions warranted. The trend is your friend except the bend at the end.
CATBIRD,
Sorry, deleted my post due to errors after you replied and put it back up under your reply.
I’m throwing out all kinds of ‘what ifs’, but remember to follow the money. I’m still in cash. And I will let the market give me a clue as to what is going on. My comments or feelings may simply be a normal response of watching the market and picking up on signals to do the exact wrong thing at the wrong time.
My comments may only be an indicator of a bear market rally here causing people to want to buy in before we go lower.
New GLD price target
http://arum-geld-gold.blogspot.com/2011/05/gld-new-price-target.html
BLH,
You’re putting up a 153.5 price target?
Best,
Le Fou
TZ,
True that logically gold ought to be the winner in the end.
But when the screen is red across the board in August for the month and the quarter and funds are down 5% for the month and desperate to score a few points, its a matter of 10 guys clicking 20 buttons and turning on a few programs and the 1462 pivot shmivot is history and they’ll have 1435 old breakout zone in their sights.
Read for example Soros interview where he talks of taking control of the Fund off the normal portfolio guys in times of 2008 crisis to revert to old methods i.e. smack it if it’s still standing.
Risk-off is risk-off, not it will be different this time.
Long GDXJ 42%+, 24% QID, 10% DUG, 8% GLDX, 12% EUO
Short SLV 7%
Cash 0%
+Increased position
TZ, with all due respect, gold was never in a D wave per Gary’s cycle analysis. I think one could argue, and still can, no parabolic move, but no signal on the D wave was given.
I think the (non manipulation :-)) take down in silver was to try and force a D wave signal, and it worked on most people, just in time to take it up to the top with gold Opex.
This Guinea pig is happy at the moment.
Le Fou, I see a measured move to 151.60 area. Not sure we get to new highs.
Remember in 2008 all the hedge funds that blew up which helped force the mass liquidation of everything.
http://hf-implode.com/
I think the muted behavior of the C-wave and the reality that has dawned on many more that gold is a way out will keep the next D-wave shorter and less severe. The pre-shakeout has tossed many people off the bull, as Gary himself said. If another big leg up occurs (no certainty by any stretch) it will be ironic if even Gary was chucked off.
whohoo go gold go
close at 1515 please
SPX close enough to 1340
do it, we need another leg up.
Looking at the JUL open interest in puts/calls for SLV, my eyeball says that the share price will be magically drawn to 32.0 or 32.5 over the next few weeks to maximize pain. It’s at 34.30 right now.
Ben,
July has almost 60 days until expiration. Do you mean June?
YOu are indicating the higher Call volume, correct?
Keep in mind that we have one more leg down coming in silver that should take us to the $20s.
That leg down will probably exert some pressure on those holding gold.
David,
That is kind of what I was talking about in my earlier post.
If we all are cumulatively agreeing that silver still has another big downdraft coming and likely will print somewhere in the 2’s (BTW – the 200 DMA is rising rather quickly and will be at $30 in a few weeks), then why not start backing up the truck on this one and ride all the way up?
Is it because we don’t think this is a high probability (>50%) anymore?
Is anyone taking this strategy of accumulating SLV short, SLV puts, ZSL, etc?
Because silver is going to have some Hellacious bounces in the next several months that will cost you money if your timing is even slightly off.
I prefer to wait in cash for the washout.
For the record, I think Gary is offering quality information, which can be useful in timing trades. I disagree with Gary about the prospects for silver for the remainder on the year.
I feel silver will trade at $50 again, after the new stimulus package is announced. I also feel the correction was so steep, because it was engineered. If you don’t believe in the manipulation, and you just assume silver is trading freely, at some point the technicals and cycles will deceive you.
John Hathaway-“Expect Chinese Acquisitions of Mining Companies”
Sounds GDXJ friendly to me.
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/5/20_Hathaway_-_Expect_Chinese_Acquisitions_of_Mining_Companies.html
Can anyone explain to me how both AGQ and ZSL can be down at the same time? Been like that for about thirty minutes now.
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If silver is flat, which it rarely is, they both decay.
Yes, I meant July, but I was thinking June. Looks like about 90-95% call versus put.
July’s probably way too far out at this point to worry about Max pain.
BOB,
>TZ, with all due respect, gold was never in a D wave per Gary’s cycle analysis. I think one could argue, and still can, no parabolic move, but no signal on the D wave was given.
Gold was likely in a D wave due to MY signals. Gary and Doc were less certain, but (follow the money) note that they are both still mostly out.
I’m now saying that according to my same work/signals/vib, the certainty of a D in gold has dropped significantly in the last 24-48 hrs.
MICHAEL,
>But when the screen is red across the board in August for the month and the quarter and funds are down 5% for the month and desperate to score a few points, its a matter of 10 guys clicking 20 buttons and turning on a few programs and the 1462 pivot shmivot is history and they’ll have 1435 old breakout zone in their sights.
“and if you are wrong?….”
NEVER forget that simple question. I would think that after the last few weeks here the respect of looking both ways would have grown.
3 weeks ago silver was climbing and gold sideways(ing).
Now it’s role reversal time.
>I think one could argue, and still can, no parabolic move, but no signal on the D wave was given.
I’ll say it again and stress the value of spending 10min to look it up at stockcharts.
The blowoff in early 2004 ended with:
1) a parabolic in silver
2) gold *barely* even crawling up to a new high. The SLIGHTEST of burps only.
Then it was *game over* into a D.
NO parabolic in gold. And even LESS action in gold than we have already had.
So I will warn people again that continuing to think this can’t end without a blowoff in gold is putting a person in the “stubborn fool who is unwilling to look at a chart” camp. Look at 2004.
You could create a sub-theory based on 2004 and the other blowoff years that there is a ROTATION in the sector which goes nuts into the peak.
Sometimes silver, sometimes gold, sometimes stocks.
This time it would appear to be silver.
It’s only a theory and clearly I just made some posts thinking gold could continue on higher and maybe put in that parabolic blowoff many want. But i’m trying to indicate there are already examples on the book where it doesn’t have to.
And generally since I clearly can’t figure out what is going on I prefer to be mostly cash for now.
David said “Keep in mind that we have one more leg down coming in silver that should take us to the $20s.”
I’m impressed with the absolute certainty of your positions. How can anybody be that sure of anything in these markets? Just wondering…
I sold my agq position at 173 today…the cross currents are incredible today, you can make a bull or bear case on almost anything. Gold could be trying to get above the recent high to suck people in or going to new highs, miners could be starting a move up or bouncing from oversold, silver is weak, spy is weak, options expiration trickery. Bear market perfection.
hi bob,do know the movie but cannot recall this scene funny though.
Not to mention the continuing bull flag on the dollar…
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=w1
i dont see bull flag..
I believe $33 will hold, until stimulus ends. Until then, a rally from here.
Don’t forget. Silver is going to be the investment of the decade for 2 reasons. One, the increasing demand, for numerous reasons. Two, the dwindling physical supply, magnified but the concentrated naked short position, destined to default.
Fubsy,
Are you holding your EUO trade over the weekend?
The COT report for silver was super bullish. Large Commercial covering and going long.
So Gary, what is the silver Blees now? Must be at an extreme, but I’m just guessing.
SMT should have a blog dedicated to premium members.
Good article for my fellow Canadian’s (vis a vis US fiscal realities and real estate):
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/in-private-mark-carney-offers-a-less-rosy-outlook/article2028318/
Hamvestor,
All parabolic tops end in consolidations that take them 60-90% below their highs.
It’s one of the few things you can be confident about.
If you can find a historical instance to the contrary, I’m all ears.
Actually, the article is a good read for American’s as well:
Such a blanket statement by a Canadian central banker about the perceived lack of political will in the U.S. capital – regardless of how obvious it may seem even to casual observers – is uncommon. “There is, I guess, no certainty that it will get done in the next couple of years before the next presidential election and the risk is that it gets delayed until afterwards, and I think the bank sees that risk too.”
Vuvvy or Veronica,
When you have a moment, shoot me an email please. It’s on my profile.
Thanks.
Moneyman, my gold futures system is 65% accurate, with the wins 2X the size of the losses. It has been working incredibly well when coupled with G and Doc’s calls.
Yeah, you’re ok if you don’t rely on just one opinion; G, doc, mechanics, EW, TA, cycle analysis, sentiment.
One of the most interesting days I can remember. The dollar played out exactly like I thought it would (looking at UUP) with a fakeout quick dip below the 50DMA into a swing low (midpoint consolidation/bull flag). But everything was up as well today. I’m more inclined to think the dollar has bottomed and continuing part 2 of a T1 pattern, with gold giving one last head fake above the recent high to get people on board and silver in a midpoint consolidation before a second leg down after the parabola. Very interesting times.
GDX might touch the bottom of the 20/200DMA if gold gets above the recent high before resuming trend. Lots of volume everywhere.
ok, 77 is in the bag for the USD.
Fubsy: Sorry—been out all day. I am still waiting and only have a small position in EUO (bought at 17.57). Still not clear to me. I plan to add on dips, but it has not dipped enough for a second purchase yet. I will reevaluate about adding Monday. Greece has been so much in the news makes me feel that we may get an FXE pop next week, which I would use to add. But…? Just uncertain about the short term.
The more I look at it, and at the dollar’s two most recent legs up as well, it sure looks like it wants to test the 200DMA as part of a T1.
DG,
I won’t add again until the dollar puts in a right translate cycle. Then I add a swing low reversal of a correction.
If we don’t get a right translated cycle on USD, the I’ll likely be stopped out of EUO below 17.30.
f
Veronica
Thanks for the answer.
I know that it works very good coupled with G and Docs calls.
I know that Doc earlier talked about a test of the high in gold, but he is not sure yet.
The news from Germany is not good.
Spain next..?
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-warns-spanish-bonds-eur-poised-technical-breakdown
This is such a mess and I wonder how long the stockmarket can resist this?
Once it starts I believe there are many who want to secure their profits.
Would appreciate if Gary could give any targets when you can step into short positions on stock market in the weekend report.
TZ, just so you are not confused on my position. (you quoted me twice) I am hyper aware of what can happen with gold, and I use option leverage with small dollars spread hedged. Having said that I am not going to sit on the sidelines if a move to nominal new highs are on tap. That is a 50K, two to three week opportunity for me.
My confidence wanes after 151.60 area, but that is plenty, and my hedges sit at 151 and 152.
You must respect two events, a pending gold Op expiry with high short interest embedded in it, with China now able to intervene directly in the gold markets from Hong Kong, and number two, last year as uncertainty arose regarding QE2, stocks went down and gold went up with the dollar.
Gold bears now must push the market down. The onus is on them.
Have a great weekend.
Ira Epstein, director of the Ira Epstein division of The Linn Group, said in the near-term he believes the negative seasonal tendency for metals to slip will take over. Epstein is a veteran of the markets and has followed the historical tendencies for metals.
“The month of June is not often friendly to gold or silver prices according to historical data provided by the Moore Research Center, Inc. Fall months are friendly in bullish environment years, due in part to demand for material stock for jewelry sales that begin pick up for the December holiday season,” Epstein said.
“77 is in the bag for the USD”
you need to deliberate more about that claim, as the USD can’t get over 76 yet
last 3 fridays have had a disaster for the euro, will this monday be the 3rd straight lift right back up for it…
USD has 76.14 resistance from last oct low, then another 2010 low at 76.60 then the feb 2011 low at 76.88, all before the venerable 77 could print
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p85369054481&a=136491558&listNum=61
a nice daily afternoon report ‘gold seeker’ here
http://www.goldseek.com/
also today it has a usual nice cot report representation for GC SI DX, and if you scroll down a few days you can find ira epstein weekly gold report
ZCn1 july corn ended up 77 cents on the week, a nice number…corn bulls had been citing gold strength for part of this week’s moves i.e. ‘inflation’ or ‘commodity bull’
see afternoon grain reports here:
http://www.bqci.com/accept.htm
Bob (or other smarter traders than me)-
Would you elaborate on your position a bit? You’re long gold plus you’re long itm puts and otm calls?
New to hedging. . . thanks for any insight.
remember technicals are based on historical data.
do you really want to make a bet on the future that the market isn’t rigged.
don’t think for a second you know that is it/isn’t. 😉
Felix Zulauf interview, worth watching for an overview of things on the horizon:
http://video.ft.com/v/950633944001/Long-View-Storm-clouds-over-markets
I wish I has d posted here earlier today , because I bought this morning and it just has more conviction than stating it “after the fact”, but it was a CRAZY day
anyways,
Bought MFN @ $12.65
Bought CGR @ $2 (it was a break out, retest on 2 day chart)
Bought AG @ $17.05 , Light volume gap fill
My set up on MFN was
http://www.screencast.com/t/6hYkQQr1
(5 day chart, 15 minutes, gap fill on lighter volume)
I have an idea:
I’m a contractor in Afghanistan and I always travel with 2 oz of gold and 4 oz of silver. I figure that no matter where I am I can sell those and make it home.
My idea is on my next vacation take 1 oz of gold and purposefully become stranded in a strange city. Use that 1oz of gold to get home and make a documentary of it.
Anyone be interested in seeing that?
BookGuy, it seems to be that if you are in a city and you have 1 oz of gold and you need to convert it, you just find a shop, sell the gold, and then go to the airport, book your tickets, and fly home. Maybe I’m missing something?
Sounds like an opportunity to get robbed and left for dead to me.
BookGuy, btw, it wasn’t my intention to be rude or smart with you there or anything, just saying from the drama point of view I don’t know if there would be enough fireworks. Maybe if you got kidnapped by pirates or something you could be onto something
Eamonn,
You are not missing anything. I was thinking of making it harder than that. Spending 48 hours in city. Taking no cash, no credit/debit card.
Basically a lot of people say, “You can’t eat gold and stuff…I want to prove that gold has value as a means of safety.
DAVID
LOL! But, you gotta admit, that would make a great documentary even with that ending, but I want the book guy alive.
BookGuy, Afghanistan must be an interesting place. Whats it like there?
LOL@ David and Eamonn. You guys just ruined TheBookGuys weekend, but you made mine. 😉
My first post at 7:14 p.m. time stamp stated that this was my set-up to buy MFN
http://www.screencast.com/t/6hYkQQr1
Obviously, thats AG, so that was my set up to buy AG
This is my MFN set up, and it is only because i expect the dollar down and metals up.
http://www.screencast.com/t/lE4SJauitV0z
David, you sound like a Dad. LOL
Too funny!
Book Guy, I think it would depend on what city you were in. Some places you just don’t want to be and some places you never want to be after dark. But I am with David, if someone wanted your oz of gold and silver, and didn’t want to pay you for it…. hmmm.
You wouldn’t want to do this alone, that’s for sure.
I wasn’t kidding — $3200 in gold and silver is more money than your average mujahid earns in a lifetime. I think that much money would be an impediment to making it home alive, as your throat could get slit as soon as someone found out you were holding it.
At the same time, there is a tradition of hospitality amongst Afghans, so you might find someone who lead you to an NGO or something for free.
Of course, depending on the kind of “contractor” you are, you may not have to worry…
I’ll just address everyone instead of everyone individually. I’m a gov’t contractor, I stay on base. I love the responses, no one offended me. I go from the base to Dubai, to the U.S. and vice versa when I come and go from U.S. Not a big believer in the war but I do need to make money.
I’m not really the type that would get robbed or killed. I could only convince you of that if you met me, not over the INTERNET. I’m a white kid who grew up in the hood and other various insane places. Yada yada, nope I’m not the real slim shady either. 🙂
I saw on Trip Advisor that you can get from my home town of Colorado Springs to San Diego for $222 round trip and it got me to thinking of how I could market a documentary…I am always coming up with adventure type scenarios and wanting to do crazy crap.
Life is about as boring as can be here. I work on the networks of recovery and recon airplanes. Same food, same routine, same people, same dust, same, same, same day in and day out. BORING!
Someone help me figure out a way to market a documentary that only someone off their rocker would do. I’m game. You help me do it and we’ll sell it together.
David,
Sounds like you have read, “The Places In Between” by Rory Stewart
BookGuy, you’d need to go somewhere really hairy like Waziristan. Maybe tell them you are George Bush’s cousin. Then things could start getting warm
Eammon,
Strange idea, but…not too sure it is something I want to do? 🙂
I own a fitness website, I thought about visiting various trainers all across the nation and videoing them training me or something strange like that. Something like 15 workouts in 30 days over 12 states…
I haven’t read that one — I worked on a project years ago with Army interrogators stationed at Bagram before the bad stuff went down, so I picked up a lot on background about Afghanistan. And many of the rough spots in the world play by the same rules.
To be honest, I don’t think it’s terribly difficult to get home if you have $3200 in gold, or the USD equivalent. It would just be a matter of paying someone to take you to the airport. The real question is whether you could do it without a US passport.
I agree, it wouldn’t be hard. I was thinking one oz of gold, any city u.s.
Sounds like an interesting job.
That is a good book.
Was also thinking of booking round trip and surviving on $20 and documenting it. Bringing a backpack with vid camera, a jacket a book and roughing it 48 hours. Finding a way to eat and basically showing the world how to survive in a city for 48 hours if stranded. No illegal activity, but generosity accepted.
Book Guy, JHNewman is working on a documentary, he is a journalist. Ping him when he is posting.
Thanks Bob. Sorry to hijack, this thread has a lot of fun people though.
We need .36 on the USD next week to make this a right translated daily cycle. If that happens, the big picture starts to lean toward an intermediate low being in on the dollar, and a strong first daily cycle ups the odds of a trend change for at least a while.
Just going to repeat that a low risk oppty to play this will present itself (if we get the rt trans) when the drop into the next daily cycle low reverses upward with a daily swing low.
Good positions to play this will be
SKF (2x Short Financials)
DUG (2x Short Oil and Gas)
EUO (2x Short Euro)
SDS (2x Short SPY)
QID (2x Short QQQ)
etc… I don’t play 3x so I didn’t put em here.
Keep in mind that the name of the game right now is to not lose money, so going ape shit on position size may not be a great idea. Transitions are messy. They make people nervous, and volatility will likely increase. I’ll be playing relatively small, and adding as price action confirms my view.
Gary said something several days back that stuck with me. If this transition manifests, selling overbought conditions will be the name of the game. That makes sense to me. As long as the trend of rt translated daily cycles for the dollar stays intact, I’ll sell overbought conditions in various asset classes.
f
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FC,
Thanks for sharing your thoughts on your planned manuevers. Some good ideas.
Gary:
Since we are in week 16 of the Gold intermediate cycle, and the normal weekly cycle runs about 20-25 weeks, should we be looking for a top in the next 2-5 weeks, assuming of course 1575 was not the top.
Have not seen the BLEES, but if it is a high number this late in the intermediate cycle, how would you interpret it?
Thanks!
at ease
Quiet a story! Thank you for sharing. I love that story…nice work. Extremely impressive.
I think gold will put in an intermediate top during this cycle. But I think it’s probably going to make new highs also.
Thanks Gary: So to make new highs, we will be looking @ one more daily cycle after this present daily cycle, correct?
No, I think it will do it in the next couple of weeks.
Book Guy-
Sorry to be late to the party, bit I would be interested in seeing/hearing about experiences getting your gold and silver through the airports and security in out of the way places. These would need to be those places where your contractor status did not facilitate passage.
As David said, the gold/silver you’d be carrying would, to my mind, almost guarantee theft (or worse) if it was discovered.
Gary-
To follow your thinking about the Dollar/Gold that leads you to believe Gold is likely to make a new high this daily cycle…I’ve been wrestling with the daily cycles, and see that the Gold daily cycle is currently left translated (assuming the high holds), and that the Dollar daily cycle is also left translated. So you’re thinking that yesterday’s Dollar move up from the bull flag is a false move, and that the dollar will perhaps hit resistance and then turn back down, pushing gold up in the process?
Gold has been amazingly resilient, so I can see it. I also understand that we’re in no man’s land and waiting for confirmation before feeling particularly confident about any moves.
Thanks…and also thanks for the service you provide – it’s terrific.
I’ll go over it in the weekend report.
OK…I’ll look forward to it.
Good Morning Everyone,
Was cleaning out the email box and found this one. I don`t know if this is re-beating the already dead horse but thought it has relavance to our group;
http://pragcap.com/short-covering-not-speculative-buying-led-to-silvers-parabolic-rise
Gary,
The gold miners continued to underperform the metals on Friday, suggesting that this is a countertrend move within a larger correction. The miners have been the tell for the last six weeks. How do you square this with a move to new highs?
Fubsy,
Of the EtFs listed in your post, which three do you believe will have the greatest return?
Michael Dunn, no good CFTC Commissioner, is being replaced by a pro-position limits tie breaking 5th Comissioner. There will be 3 Democrats for limits, and 2 Republicans, against limits, Jill Sommers and Scott O’malia. Should be big for silver, when all is said and done.
Actually the miners have been outperforming for the last 4 days except on Friday. Friday the miners just got hit along with the rest of the market into the late day sell off.
I expect they will follow gold higher next week, although I doubt it will be to new highs.
I don’t understand why Gary would play GDX over DGP if he believed Gold was going to go up.
The miners were down early Friday, then rallied back with gold — but weakly.
Gold:XAU stands at 7.59, a hair off its recent highs. When I pull up a gold:XAU chart, I see little to get excited about.
I say this only because miner weakness in the face of rallies has been such a reliable indicator lately.
When I pull up the gold:XAU chart I see a lot to get excited about. The ratio is above the highs of the last two years. That isn’t a continuation sign that’s a sign it’s time for a change and time for the miners to start outperforming.
GDXJ did end the day strong. The majors just got hit by the general stock market weakness. That will end once the final daily cycle low is in place. (it may already be, I just need to see what happens early next week).
I want to play the move in the gold:XAU ratio back down into the recent range not a continuation into levels that have only existed one other time in history.
Fubsy,
Wanted to chime in and also thank you for sharing your trading ideas. They really add value to the blog : )
I agree that miners are wildly undervalued.
I will be buying them aggressively when the turn comes.
Right now, however, they have yet to outperform, suggesting that the turn hasn’t come yet.
By the time you are convinced the turn has come most if not all the move will be over.
Gary,
Unfortunately, I didn’t join in buying GDXJ. A little while ago I bought the dollar index which I think may continue to move higher.
Do you think it’s too late for participating in this trade? (I had thought of waiting for the cycle low in gold due to arrive in June-July which might be a safer entry point, but you have been on the mark with this trade, no question.)
One thing that impresses me is that gold in euros is only 1% away from an all-time high. The euro declining and gold rising is odd, but make sense as a “flight to safety” play by Europeans. Anyway, am just wondering if it’s too late to play the junior miners here.
Thanks, Gary. And just to say I think the criticism by a minority here is completely unwarranted. Keep calling them as you see them!
If you are “late” to a trade you might want to consider taking a smaller position or passing the trade altogether.
I tend to think gold will probably make a new high and that should drag the miners higher even if they don’t make new highs.
“So far we aren’t seeing the kind of divergence that indicates a bull market top is imminent.”
Gary,
I’m glad you have finally seen the light. 🙂
Nice weekend report Gary and welcome back, the shinny metal missed you 🙂
Thanks, Gary. I see it as a short-term trade, not an investment. Might make sense with the stops you mention as my pm allocation right now is zero and I have a heavy cash position.
Hi Gary,
Do you think DGP will be a better buy than GLD, GDX or GDXJ?
Thanks
Torreo,
I’ve repeatedly said we would have to see an intermediate cycle pivot violated before we have confirmation that the cyclical bull has expired. But I think the top is going to occur this summer because of the timing of the next 4 year cycle low.
I said in one of last weeks reports that holding periods for all positions are going to be much shorter. That includes the GDX/GDXJ trade and the GLD trade.
DGP will be more risky. It is the same trade as GLD but the gains will be greater if we are right and magnified if we are wrong.
We learned the hard way about magnified pain when silver crashed.
Gary,
Do you think Silver will make it back to $40-$42 during the next move in Gold?
Hard to say. Silver is caught in the death grip of a collapsing parabola. Gold rallied hard on Friday and all silver could manage was 6 cents.
I certainly wouldn’t bank on it and I won’t be playing silver again for quite some time.
Hi Gary,
Thanks for the great report. Looking forward to gold making a move.
Wishing you all the best in Monrovia.
Maybe the best way to play silver is to buy OTM Puts on it if it did rise?
Gary, nice report. As one of those who didn’t (doesn’t) like not seeing your portfolio (I always liked having the extra info), I will say one great improvement to the site lately has been to include the charts showing when positions were initiated.
Even though I don’t track the model (and didn’t track your before), it does help to have the date to see exactly what the thinking was.
Thanks again.
I’m afraid that I don’t see it no matter how hard I squint at that gold:XAU chart. I see persistent weakness and it’s hard to square that with a rally into a C-wave top.
Maybe Monday’s trading will make things more clear, but I am staying on the sidelines for now.
Good luck in Monrovia, Gary.
David,
I haven’t studied XAU but doesn’t it combine both gold and silver? Could the trouble with silver be affecting it, versus the gold-only vehicles?
Possibly.
Though with the relentless beating they’ve taken, I would expect the miners to rocket out of a bottom.
Typically major lows are signaled when miners are rocking even as the metals are down. We just haven’t seen that yet. The XAU has been puttering along.
It’s hard for me to fathom how the miners could be so anemic if we’re blasting off into a top.
Actually bottoms don’t have a “normal” pattern. Some times they do rocket higher as you say. The March low was a good example.
Quite often they exhibit volatile back and forth behavior before trending upr, more often than not on anemic volume. The Oct., Nov. and Jan. bottoms formed this way.
On the plus side this has been a relentless push higher despite the fact that gold was going nowhere until Friday and volume has been very strong so far.
I don’t expect this to send miners to new all time highs but if gold can break above $1600 I think the HUI will definitely rally back to the 570-580 level. That’s still a 7.5 to 9.5% gain. In my book that’s worth catching, especially if we are now in an environment where we can’t expect sustained moves.
100 blees on Silver and 88 blees on Gold. Commercials have one of the largest long positions in Silver last 4 years. Commercials long gold at levels in Jan. IMHO, Those are not tops, but bottoms. Going to be an interesting next 2-3 few weeks.
Natanarchist,
Going to Banff/Calgary early next month. Will you be there?
Alex
Thanks for the reply on Silver earlier, Gary. I enjoyed that long term Gold chart projecting into this fall that you included in the weekend report.
Hi Alex In Montana
Won’t be there until last week of June. 26 though July 2. looking forward to it.
Barron’s this weekend:
Big article recommending gold stocks. Could give a lift on Monday.
Newmont and Goldcorp mentioned as cheap. Barrick has ticked people off with their big acquisition of a copper company for $7.5 billion, so not as attractive.
JP Morgan targets:
Newmont $89, now $54
Barrick $57, now $45
Goldcorp $68, now $49
it was interesting the media reports about Soro’s selling GLD, but he bought a couple miners, GG and Barrick?…perhaps he thinks the gains will be bigger in the miners over the metal.
Within our framework of expectations, where is gold now? c-wave, d-wave? I’d like to know where we are. Anyone? I thought we were in the d-wave. Now we are not? $1600 is now a possible target. What changed?
Alex in Montana…have you been to Radium Hot Springs? I haven’t been in about 30 years..was thinking of driving there for one day for a good soak.
Confirmation of a D-wave has always been a move below a prior daily cycle low. That hasn’t happened yet.
Might I suggest reading the reports a couple of times so you don’t miss key points.
Ok, we havnt violated the daily cycle low. But what the the signals etc that mean we are now much more bullish
Eamonn,
It’s all in the weekend report.
I’m with Cory and some others in that I am very skeptical of all what is going on and where direction heads and am trying to figure out an action plan if any to take at these crossroads.
Please take the below as a grain of salt and that it’s only intended to keep an open mind and discussion. Trust, me I am likely to jump on the gold bandwagon again here but I’m scared as hell.
Gary’s take on this is clear that today is not 2008 and the cycles are not the same (something I didn’t validate).
—————————-
2011 is of course different than the past, but tell me if you would buy Gold at the below setup:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&st=2007-06-01&en=2008-04-15&id=p40867396271&a=234891094
The TA shows this in 2008 as the day before an up day where it took out the parabolic SAR. It also broke up and out of the narrowing BB. Notice how it was also looking to make a run at a new high.
Here is the same chart as of Friday in 2011:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&st=2010-06-01&en=2011-09-01&id=p72197020771&a=232086089
They look very, very similar.
Here is what happened in 2008, I’ll expand out the chart a couple months:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&st=2007-06-01&en=2008-06-15&id=p23382077837&a=234891094
Note, the C wave had already peaked and this was a fakeout bounce. It did make a run back up almost to 1000.
Now for silver. In the above setup in 2008:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&st=2007-06-01&en=2008-04-15&id=p38579684233
This looks almost identical to what happened in 2011 and where we are at as of Friday (this day is the exact same date as the above Gold chart).
Here is the 2008 silver chart a few months out:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&st=2007-06-01&en=2008-08-15&id=p16968612858
Silver made a run for 20 from 17.5 and then fell off another cliff. It made the run for 20 even though the original parabola was broken.
I guess the only difference between 2008 and 2011 is the alignment of the cycles.
I guess the prediction here is that silver may go up a little bit but will eventually come crashing down more, while gold shoots up for 2-3 weeks to make the C wave top.
Natanarchist,
Not sure about Soros and selling gold but buying some miners. Miners will eventually do well. Trying to figure out the catalysts other than they are cheap. Maybe China (someone) bids for Newmont, Barrick or some other large miner.
Radium Hot Springs – we drive up 22(Cowboy Trail) then cut over at Longview and go up Kananaskis Highway to just east of Canmore and then west to Banff. Sometimes we go back through Radium Hot Springs. Never stayed there but have stayed at Fairmont Hot Springs just south. Always see Bighorn Sheep at Radium so bring your camera.
The dollar chart looks the most bullish to me. Once it reaches it’s T1/daily cycle/Bollinger band top it might be the catalyst for gold to get to a new high. I still would rather wait this move out on the long side and build up long dated DITM puts on GLD/SLV as the dollar goes into it’s daily cycle low. Miners look bullish for a bounce but the SPY doesn’t look like it’s going to help equities much. Silver is stagnant and might be all summer like 2008 to eat up all the people in play on options from the big run. If the next significant leg is coming on the short side, I would rather be in on this bounce up even if I’m early, where time decay won’t matter much (Oct or Jan). I hate getting chopped up on head fakes which this could be, and the real money will be long miners during the next A wave anyways.
Norcini on the 2nd have of the weekly market wrap concurs greatly with the comments I made yesterday about me suspecting we aren’t in a D wave yet and that we might have higher to go (and also how gold could rally despite the dollar due to euro problems)
http://www.kingworldnews{PUTDOTHERE]com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/5/21_KWN_Weekly_Metals_Wrap.html
As well I see that gary is now more confident of higher gold in the weekly report and putting money on it.
I’m going to examine things for a gold entry this week (with tight stop) for some possible additional profit.
Is the general consensus still bearish on silver? If gold is looking like it has one last leg up, won’t silver likely follow?
Gold rallied almost $20 on Friday. Silver gained 6 cents.
Gary,
thank you for the great report; and btw, thank you for your great cycle guidance throughout.
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Gary, why did you make a decision to remove 1318 stop loss protection on SPX?
If it breaks down, next stop is 1300 area
Are you ok with it?
Just read the weekend repor. Welcome back Gary 🙂
@businessinsider
Business Insider
Art Cashin On How Traders Are Preparing For The May 21 Rapture http://read.bi/mtU0ou
A little Sunday morning chuckle,
Le Fou
On the most basic level, regardless of the true “strength” of the dollar, shouldn’t all the bad euro news be enough to propel gold? If you’re a euro-citizen and concerned about your currency, what are you going to turn to?
Gary, so is the inverse of your previous comment that silver will fall further on the D-wave? 😉
Don’t forget all those silver margin hikes. Those will not go away until the volitility decreases.
My tactic for next week is to buy puts on slv and calls on god July options
marinho,
god options? I think it expired yesterday.
Miyagi-san…very funny!
TZ,
Lately I’ve been more of a student of stops.
Take Gary’s gold trade…he has given us what I think is a very wide stop (at least by your standards). Say gold opens Monday basically where it is now. Say you want to buy GLD. What would your stop be assuming you are risking 1% of your portfolio?
Gary – no mention of the miners in the weekend report. What are the prospects for HUI?
Myagi
Sorry gld
Though to write on the phone
I just finished reading this weekend’s report and I’m sensing a lot of indecision and uncertainty on on your thoughts in this market.
Gary, on May 14th’s report you mentioned that stocks ‘might’ have put in a final bull market top. Your reasoning was sound and the market confirmed it by making lower lows in May. Fast forward 5 trading days later and now you expect the market to make new highs after the short term bottom is in.
That’s quite a drastic change in sentiment despite very little positive action. There’s a lot of headwind for this market in the coming weeks (end of QE2, unemployment report, etc.) and I’m surprised that you would advise your subscribers to ignore all stops at this moment.
In a secular bullmarked like the PM, even bad timers (‘pigs’) are saved, thus; “Bulls make money, pigs make money, bears get slaughtered” 🙂
Mr. O’ Bama is coming to see us tomorrow
Erik
Soon the dollar will fall back into a daily cycle low. That will give the stockmarket maybe 2 weeks to make another push higher..
Its very interesting to se Gold and the dollar going up together.
Maybe gold nows that the dollar will soon fall back and this is the last rally for both gold and the stockmarket..
know
T.J. Rand,
I carry 2 oz of gold and 4 oz of silver everywhere and I travel as a citizen, nothing else. I keep them in my carry on and have never ever been asked about them.
Wow Eamonn, What are you up to that both the Queen and O’Bama are visiting you?
…at ease, we’re hoping they might invite us to join the pound sterling or US dollar zone
Bookguy, I just came back into the US, they only asked me if I had more than $3k in cash.
Eamonn, Ahhah, got you.
Gary, Hope you did well on your lifting event. Good report, happy to be getting back into GLD trades. 🙂
*
I saw Gary compete today, he did well. He won his class.
“Soon the dollar will fall back into a daily cycle low. That will give the stockmarket maybe 2 weeks to make another push higher..”
If Gary believe the 3 year low in the dollar is in, then a long trade on this market (SPY) would simply be counter trend. Correct? I’m simply trying to understand the risk and reward of going long SPY here.
There’s nothing counter trend about an SPY trade at this point. The trend is still up and the market is in the process of putting in a daily cycle low if it hasn’t already.
We don’t have any indication yet that the cyclical bull has expired.
Gary,
Does the Blees rating of 100 for Silver mean anything or the rating for Gold only matters.
Thanks
Eric,
Yes, this is not only counter-trend but right in front of a coming bull top. I will sit this one (long SPY)out. I AM drooling though over the chance to short the equities market (TZA, QID, etc) when it rolls over this summer.
Also, still being a big PM bull, I am uneasy about getting back long in gold this late in the game. I would suggest folks re-read Gary’s May 10th post on premium site, where he makes the point that we are making a mistake trying to catch the last little bit of this c-wave.(“Is it really critical that we catch that move? Hell no it isn’t,…”). Lots of talk about getting to the A-wave with your powder dry. Now we’re 50%+ invested in chasing this last 100 pts in gold?
I will probably stick my toe back in the water with GLD (with stops!)because honestly I couln’t stand to miss a big move up :-). But I don’t like the looks of the miners charts. And I’m keeping my ITM Aug puts for GLD.
EricH,
In order to “confirm” the market would have to trade below a prior daily cycle low first and then the real confirmation would come if a prior intermediate cycle low is violated.
Don’t let a bearish bias make you read into something that isn’t there. There was absolutely no confirmation of a bear trend in May.
Folks, there is still a possibility that the dollar’s three year cycle low will come this fall. Let me caution you against making bear assumptions before they’ve been confirmed.
Many a top picker has gone broke trying to short a bull market before proper confirmation.
Chrys,
The model portfolio says it all.
I saw Gary compete too… he was super. If it wasn’t for his bothering shoulder he would set record. I did witness him chowed down the chicken burritos too… 🙂
Driven,
That stop was never official which you should already know. (Read the dialog on the stops and triggers link.)
It will only become official once I’m satisfied 1318 was the daily cycle low. I’m not satisfied it is yet. And if it gets violated in only two days then it certainly isn’t the daily cycle low.
Canadians or anyone,
Does anyone have experience trading CGL.to? It looks to be equivalent to GLD? I was thinking of staying in my Canadian funds with CGL rather than covert to buy GLD. Thoughts?
“There’s nothing counter trend about an SPY trade at this point. “
Isn’t a long SPY trade essentially a short dollar trade? That’s what i meant by counter-trend (short dollar).
Gary,
No official stop on spy but we’re still sticking to the stops in the gold trades?
Ryan,
No experience with the etf that you mentioned, but I have had HBU.to which is a leveraged etf and it comes close to tracking DGP.
“Folks, there is still a possibility that the dollar’s three year cycle low will come this fall..”
Okay, if that’s the case then the best risk and reward should be in the gold market with a stop below 1460?
Isn’t it normal to see the overnight global market a sea of red only to have NY open up and then go off with a bang?
NY is the leading indicator in my mind. THis weakness is carryover from NY from Friday and of course the dollar strength.
THe Bollinger Band top for USD is right at 76, which it’s smashing its head on now. Hopefully even if we do get a break above 76 it is short lived and not too far further.
Greece has less than 2 months of cash left. The noose is tightening… http://www.zerohedge.com/article/greece-has-less-two-month-cash-left-insolvent-ecb-sees-widening-rift-germany
Rob L,
Thanks, I’m still a little gun shy after the blood shed of the 2X with AGQ/HZU so I want to just stick to non-leveraged for now. (Saving the 2X for the A wave). CGL looks like it’s tracking GLD pretty well. I think I’ll go with that unless the volume is really anemic.
EricH,
There is nothing that says the market has to trade inversely to the dollar. I think it ultimately will but they can trade in tandem for some time before reverting.
Look at gold. It should have dropped Friday.
At this point QE2 is still operating. The dollar isn’t rallying because of deflation yet. It’s rallying because sentiment reached extremes and traders are selling the Euro. But there are still plenty of dollars out there. That could continue to support the stock market and gold until the end of June and maybe even beyond.
Ryan,
Yes the gold stop is official. That cycle low is clear.
Thanks Gary.
It seems fairly obvious that once the Greek can is again kicked down the road global markets will find their daily cycle low.
My best guess is if not tomorrow then probably Tuesday.
Gary, if a new daily cycle was confirmed during the week by a rise in the S&P to break the down trend line (drawn from 2 May to 10 May), would you then consider a subsequent breach of S&P 1318 to be indicative of a return of the bear?
I would need to see enough of a rally to convince me the daily cycle low has been made.
A 1-3 day rally isn’t enough. The only time I can recall a daily cycle rallying only 3 days before rolling over is during the crash in the fall of 08. I don’t think we are even close to a crash type scenario.
I think central banks will continue to monetize debt, including Greek debt. The contagion isn’t going to come from that direction twice in my opinion.
I think the trouble this time will come as an unintended consequence of monetizing sovereign debt. In my mind that has to be surging commodity inflation and that is exactly what we have seen for the last two years.
I think it has to get really out of control though which is what has got me wondering if the dollar’s three year cycle low won’t be stretched out to the fall.
Time for me to hit the sack early tonight. Driving 8 hours and lifting in a competition will do that 🙂
Great free trading resource link provided Zero Hedge, with 100s of linked PDFs
http://www.traders-library.com/
Look forward to adding gld soon….but 25th is options expiration….we may get shenanigans or we may not… Just FYI all
Did Beanie somehow manage to hack into every one of Gary’s pages to make him appear more bullish on stocks? (just kidding)
.
Not sure how much Utah, a state with a poplation of ~2.7 million (34th in the USA), will move the needle of gold and silver prices but should this move to a gold standard catch on and become a trend in other states I suppose the effect could be significant given America is the wealthiest nation on the planet.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43128094
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LOL – Utah has a big idea!
“The idea is simple: Store your gold and silver coins in a vault, and Franco issues a debit-like card to make purchases backed by your holdings.”
Give them your gold, and they’ll give you a credit card! Hmmm. Where have I heard that before?
Le Fou
Usher in credit cards backed by gold bullion
FLORIDA, USA (Commodity Online):A new breed of credit cards backed by gold bullion is soon to become a reality in USA. Sweeping changes in credit card industry is set benefit not only consumers, but gold bugs too, who’ll be able for first time to charge purchases against ‘liquid gold.’
In particular, Public Law 111-24, the Credit Card Accountability Responsibility and Disclosure Act of 2009 whose major provisions are effective February 2010, provides new legislation pertaining to credit cards which will make them not only easier to understand, but offer a “golden opportunity” for those who want to have a new credit card backed by gold, rather than dollars.
More here: http://preview.tinyurl.com/ycobpd7
Le Fou
NEW POST
Gold and dollar strength in tandem often happens (at this time last year for instance) although dollar weakness with gold strenght are the most common. However, dollar strength together with strong equities almost never happens. A $ rally almost invariably implies a Sp500 dip. Therefore, when it was clear that the $ broke up from the bullflag on friday, an alternative would have been to exit any Spy longs before the close.
<>
THIS IS WISELY written
Is A Healthy Correction Overdue in Gold And Silver?
Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
May 03, 2011 – 07:21 AM
By: Jeb_Handwerger
When one begins trading it is important to realize that it is like any other business and your goods are your stocks. There is a basic rule that one must learn and never forget when buying and selling merchandise. You must be prepared to accumulate your products when there is a panic and sell them when there is euphoria. One has to sell when the product is in demand and the investment public becomes aggressive and buy when it is out of favor and the public shows little to no interest. In August of 2010 and January of 2011 precious metals both gold and silver presented excellent buying opportunities.
Please note as silver surpasses our late January target and continues its parabolic move since our buy signal, that my goal is to make significant profits and not get greedy for the extra 5-10%. Do not get me wrong. I believe silver and gold’s long term trend could push gold to $3000 and silver to $100 by 2013, but I am welcoming a short term healthy correction of at least 20% in silver before I will consider buying again. I will wait for pullbacks and not chase silver at these elevated levels. The key to selling correctly is buying at the right time when the commodity is oversold and out of favor. Parabolic moves end with significant corrections and I would like to see a healthy pullback. This current blow off move means that a correction could be quite painful for the investor who has overextended themselves accumulating at euphoric levels. A healthy correction will improve the chance of an orderly and healthy uptrend and provide my readers with a secondary buypoint.
My basic objective of this service is to help readers secure profits and realized gains. You must sell and take partial profits as targets are reached. Selling at overhead resistance or while it is still advancing is reminiscent of the great investors such as the Rothschild’s and Bernard Baruch who stated that no one gets the top or bottom. The goal is catching the majority of the move.
Once my technical targets begin getting hit, I begin to reduce my exposure as the price continues to advance past that target. One has to remember that the reason we are in this position of sitting with hefty gains is because we bought right in late January as gold and silver were oversold and reaching long term support. Now in late April three months later silver has reversed reaching overhead resistance and gold is still in the process of reaching the $1600 target. I would use gold’s upper resistance line as a more valid place to look for profit taking opportunities on both metals.
It is important to learn to sell when others are too optimistic and buy when others are scared to death. Silver (SLV) is close to 70% above the 200 day moving average, moving parabolically and surpassing overhead resistance, while gold (GLD) is only 12% above the 200 day moving average. This is extremely divergent from the historical mean. We may see silver stalling while gold plays catch up. We are in a buying hysteria and short squeeze in silver. During these times it has historically been wise to sell into euphoria. When the herd begins exiting it may be painful…the pigs wanting the top may get slaughtered.
Gary,
The only thing I’ve ever disagreed with you on is the timing of QE3, I honestly think that politically they can not afford not to push more liquidity. The gov’t needs to continue Social Security, Medicare, Unemployment, ect.
ok, ok…
Is A Healthy Correction Overdue in Gold And Silver?
Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
May 03, 2011 – 07:21 AM
By: Jeb_Handwerger
When one begins trading it is important to realize that it is like any other business and your goods are your stocks. There is a basic rule that one must learn and never forget when buying and selling merchandise. You must be prepared to accumulate your products when there is a panic and sell them when there is euphoria. One has to sell when the product is in demand and the investment public becomes aggressive and buy when it is out of favor and the public shows little to no interest. In August of 2010 and January of 2011 precious metals both gold and silver presented excellent buying opportunities.
Please note as silver surpasses our late January target and continues its parabolic move since our buy signal, that my goal is to make significant profits and not get greedy for the extra 5-10%. Do not get me wrong. I believe silver and gold’s long term trend could push gold to $3000 and silver to $100 by 2013, but I am welcoming a short term healthy correction of at least 20% in silver before I will consider buying again. I will wait for pullbacks and not chase silver at these elevated levels. The key to selling correctly is buying at the right time when the commodity is oversold and out of favor. Parabolic moves end with significant corrections and I would like to see a healthy pullback. This current blow off move means that a correction could be quite painful for the investor who has overextended themselves accumulating at euphoric levels. A healthy correction will improve the chance of an orderly and healthy uptrend and provide my readers with a secondary buypoint.
My basic objective of this service is to help readers secure profits and realized gains. You must sell and take partial profits as targets are reached. Selling at overhead resistance or while it is still advancing is reminiscent of the great investors such as the Rothschild’s and Bernard Baruch who stated that no one gets the top or bottom. The goal is catching the majority of the move.
Once my technical targets begin getting hit, I begin to reduce my exposure as the price continues to advance past that target. One has to remember that the reason we are in this position of sitting with hefty gains is because we bought right in late January as gold and silver were oversold and reaching long term support. Now in late April three months later silver has reversed reaching overhead resistance and gold is still in the process of reaching the $1600 target. I would use gold’s upper resistance line as a more valid place to look for profit taking opportunities on both metals.
It is important to learn to sell when others are too optimistic and buy when others are scared to death. Silver (SLV) is close to 70% above the 200 day moving average, moving parabolically and surpassing overhead resistance, while gold (GLD) is only 12% above the 200 day moving average. This is extremely divergent from the historical mean. We may see silver stalling while gold plays catch up. We are in a buying hysteria and short squeeze in silver. During these times it has historically been wise to sell into euphoria. When the herd begins exiting it may be painful…the pigs wanting the top may get slaughtered.