338 thoughts on “Portfolio Change

  1. David

    Basil,

    Silver isn’t like the stock market. It’s a commodity. Commodities tend to lay low for a long time, then spike violently.

    Check out a 20-year chart of Palladium and you’ll see what I mean. Better yet, check out a chart of silver in the 1970s.

    The silver bull market of the 1970s was in reality just two superspikes — one in 74 and one in 80. Aside from those two years, silver flatlined.

    If you invest in silver expecting it to act like the stock market, you will wind up frustrated and end up selling your position in five years, just before the next superspike begins.

  2. John

    Gary:

    You said that you will take profits on both short positions if today’s close pushes the 5 day RSI below 30, and you sold.

    I show the SPY 5 day RSI close today was around 70. Where am I wrong?

  3. Gary

    John,
    I decided to go ahead and cover both trades for two reasons. The S&P ended pretty close to the top of it’s intraday range making it easy to form a swing tomorrow. A swing could mark the the bottom of the daily cycle.

    And two there was a large BoW number on the SPY this afternoon. That could be signaling tomorrow is an up day and if so it would form the swing.

    So I decided it was close enough and went ahead and locked in profits.

  4. Gary

    Are you checking the RSI on SPY or on an inverse fund like SH? If you are looking at an inverse fund then that would explain it.

  5. Poly

    Gary,

    I’m with you 100% on the coming Bear market, no doubt, but the calls to have equities top around here, are they based purely on the 4 yr equities cycle being shortened and due in early 2012 or is it based more on the 3yr dollar cycle low? or Both?

    I’m just trying to get an understanding of your thinking if you don’t mind, because as I see it these intermiadate cycles can keep grinding higher (well one more cycle) (Gold & Equities) as long as we don’t blow through the 3yr and 4yr cycles right?

    If the 3yr cycle for the dollar can occur anywhere within 3.5 yrs (late fall) and the equities cycle is 4 yrs (through to technically early 2013 low) why couldn’t we have another lower dollar IT cycle, a nice RT equities cycle and a higher gold IT cycle, once the current cycle finds it’s IT cycle low?
    I guess I’m asking, why the rush to call an end to the equities bull, dollar bear and a gold D-wave when none of them have technically failed or confirmed.

    Thanks.

  6. Gary

    Poly,
    yes based mostly on the 4 year cycle in equities and the three year cycle in the dollar. Don’t forget we have qualifiers before we can say for sure one way or the other.

    A move to new highs negates the move obviously. And the market has to move below 1249 and break the last intermediate cycle low before we have confirmation. Right now the market is in no man’s land other than being in the timing band for a top.

  7. Shawk

    Docjohn,

    That chart you posted spans several days but it is a 30 minute chart. Go down to the settings and select Daily.

  8. Gary

    Wav,
    I’m not confident the market will move to new highs. I would have to feel that new highs had high odds before I would want to take the long side. For now I’ll just sit in cash.

  9. Poly

    Thanks Gary,

    So you’re saying what I outlined is still possible right, until confirmation?
    It just seems like everybody is married to the idea of a D-Wave and Bear market right now when the confirmation is not in.
    Looking back in the past these IT cycles always seem to through curve-balls or appear one way only to deceive. We’ve thought the C-Wave top was coming many cycles ago, the bear returning etc etc.
    The miners acting poorly makes sense, as we would still need to endure an IT low soon enough, without the requirement of a D-Wave.

  10. Bill

    FYI – Technically, though I’m a follower and not a predictor of price action, me thinks … that PM’s are about to bust out to make higher highs. The HUI is at the 200d EMA, and isn’t going lower. The dollar is peaking; and the euro is forming a low. I think this will be the final parabolic move you spoke of Gary.

    Fundamentally, this will be due to Bernanke announcing QE3.

    I’m not an EW’er, but a good EW’er I respect is seeing this as a wave 5 up (our of the current corrective wave 4 we’re now in). Interesting.

    We’ll see.

  11. Bill

    It feels like the week of Jan 24th – see the daily HUI chart – deep RSI, deep PPO – everone thinking the gold bull was over.

    Gary, is this worth a Plan B?

  12. Ken

    correction, I meant the low a couple of days ago, not today… but there are similarities of each low that I mentioned…
    anyone?

  13. Alex in Montana

    China buys South African Gold Miner

    China has reduced their holdings of US Treasuries for the 5th month in a row. Presumably, with some of the proceeds they just bought their first gold mining company for a half billion.

    They already have placed a floor under the gold price and now maybe there will be a bidder for gold miners down the road.

    Also, why not buy a miner with 1,500,000 ounces of reserves for $316 an ounce when the metal is at $1,500.

    We will see more of this.

  14. Romeo Bravo

    Looks like lots of people still want to jump back on the bull. I don’t think the market will make it that easy. If this is a D Wave, sentiment has to get totally washed out, we will need to see more disgust and frustration rather than “let me back on.”

  15. David

    You have to look at the markets holistically.

    It doesn’t make sense just to look at gold at this point.

    All risk assets are rolling over. Defensive sectors are outperforming. This is not an environment where anything is going parabolic anytime soon.

    The current environment feels very much like late summer 2008. Commodities falter, the mining and refining stocks collapse, then the general market follows.

  16. Bill

    Romeo, agree.

    I’m not bullish or bearish – I just follow. So I’m just seeing a potential setup in PM’s that FX is confirming. If (and only if) price breaks out above recent pivot highs would I buy the breakout, w/a trailing floor.

  17. Sleeper

    romeo bravo,

    I totally agree. It’s interesting to witness the flow of sentiment on this blog. You can almost tell who is long, who is short, who is clinging to hope, etc. πŸ˜‰

  18. Ken

    I think the sentiment is probably very low. Look at one of my stocks, Alamos Gold, made a high in December and has been making lower lows since, has dropped from $21.50 to $13.50. I guess if this is the start of the D wave it could go on down to $6.. but that seems just too extreme to me given all that I know

  19. Bill

    What’s really driving me to reconsider this is that QE2 is about to expire, and there’s no way Bernanke won’t do something to keep market proped up – based on his own history/philosophy, based on HF greed, and based on presidential cycles. Bernanke is in his element, and he will print.

    Gary has said this over and over. Not sure why though folks think QE will end. Sure, he said he’s done, but I’d be amazed (and glad) if he has the kahuna’s to follow though.

    Again, we’ll see. I’m following whatever happens.

    BTW, great posts Gary.

  20. Ken

    An 2008 crash post credit bubble collapse is a once in a generational thing.. I think it is unlikely to happen again in just 3 years….

  21. Felix

    Bill,

    Is it possible the Fed will need to wait until stocks and public outcry for relief allows them to ride to the rescue?

  22. David

    I don’t think we’re in for a replay of 2008.

    But this is what the transition to a “risk off” environment looks like.

    Commodity stocks fall => Commodities fall => Economically sensitive stocks fall => everything falls.

    We are already over a month into the process.

  23. Gary

    Bill,
    No way would I go long metals here. We’ve got weekly swings in both silver and miners. A broken parabola n silver and a bearish engulfing candle on gold. Plus it’s week 16 of an intermediate cycle and day 8 of a daily cycle. If this was going to make a parabolic move it would have started already.

    And to top it off the dollar has obviously put in an intermediate degree bottom.

    The odds are stacked hugely against gold continuing the run now. You are trying to rationalize something that clearly has very little chance of happening.

  24. Bill

    Felix, yup. Good thought. In fact, I don’t recall exactly, but wasn’t that how QE2 was born? Didn’t it take the SPY to tip over 1st before QE extended? Gary? Or perhaps I’m remember how QE1 was born out of TARP?

    Damn memory cells …

  25. Bill

    Sir Gary, he he!, I’m not a cycles guy, so that bit aside, I wouldn’t go long metals here – yet – but heck yes I will if we break above the last pivot high, and the 50d EMA.

    Why? Because they’d be going up.

    It’s that simple for me. Up is up, down is down, sideways is noting.

    But again I don’t have cycles nagging at me.

    How about you – in the bit we agree on – about fundamentals – will Bernanke print or not? If he will, metals will rise, no? Felix may have nailed how that happens, but if Bernanke prints, metals will rise. What are the odds that Bernanke stops printing?

  26. Gary

    At the moment I think it’s politically impossible to justify QE3. If the market suffers another hard correction then yes.

  27. Felix

    Bill

    No question he will, what choice will he have? I think most of us agree and that’s why we’re looking to play off the decline of the dollar here with the PM bull.

    I suppose part of the question could be put, “Do the cycles follow the news?” or “Is the news window-dressing to cover the cyclic moves?” At what point are deliberations over policy moot?

  28. Bill

    Well, if I stop looking at the charts for a sec, and just close my eyes, and imagine how much f’ing money Bernanke has printed – trillions! – and w/China buying less and less of our debt, with 10% unemployment (1 out of 10), and 20% underempoyment, and 1 out of 5 underwater, and with the stock market tipping over HARD, back to 666, HE WILL HAVE NO CHOICE.

    I think it was Trader Dan that said that he may not call it QE3, but money will be printed in some form.

    Would Bernanke allow a depression? Would Obama allow Bernanke to allow a depression?

    I hope I’m wrong, but I fear not.

  29. David

    Bill,

    QE3 is a given. But it’s not coming soon enough to save the PM complex, or commodities in general.

    In the short term, Ben wants to see commodities lower. It’s only when the stock market rolls over hard that you will start seeing talk of QE3.

  30. Bill

    OK, Gary/David/Felix, I’m with you. I thought that Gary earlier was saying that QE would not contiue, and that that was part of his rational for a D wave.

    Again, I’m not a cycles guy. And I’m not saying Gary’s wrong on cycles. I myself am not convinced, but it may be true.

    5 yrs ago, EW worked. So did volume, divergences, reversal candlesticks. Now all that is broken. Only price works. If price rises, I’m in. That’s all I’m saying.

    And, I’m wondering if Gary has a cycles Plan B to accodate this, if it pans out.

  31. Gary

    If gold can break above the May 11th high then I would reconsider a moderate long position in gold and only gold.

  32. kmisak

    Bill, thanks for that galactic reminder of how small I am – and my problems!

    Took a trade today on Orbite, a Quebec co. with an alumina patent. Who knows? Snapback cont., I hope. Jumped on board based on volume, story. Otherwise twiddling my thumbs; haven’t sold my Model Portfolio (yet); kept one micro silver stock, hoping for news…

    *yawn*

  33. kmisak

    *yawn* was an exaggeration; this sh$t actually fascinates me. Why else have I been reading every single solitary post for months (and belching beep replacements)?

    But, seriously. When it comes, I’ll be all over it…

  34. Bill

    Gary, that’s exactly where I drew my line, too. πŸ˜‰ If and only if gold breaks that would I guy. And like you wrote a while ago, I’d focus on miners. I won’t discount silver yet, so I’d start w/a partial position in each of GDX, GDXJ and SIL, and then after a week or so be adding to the winning horse.

    I do hope though that we’re in a D wave, because that means we can buy at a lower price, plus ride the A and C wave up.

    Enough of my babble – am glad to see your Plan B though. Thanks.

  35. Poly

    “It’s interesting to witness the flow of sentiment on this blog. You can almost tell who is long, who is short, who is clinging to hope, etc”

    Clinging to hope goes both ways! LOL

    For every bear case (i.e. Silver broken) there is a bull case. I’ve been hearing about divergences in rails/transports, financials, PM’s, semiconductors, tech’s for over a year and still the market plows higher.

    I too believe a vicious bear across all risk assets will soon be unleashed. But for now, the cycles have not failed and the trends have not reversed, so the hoping is on the short side, for now!

  36. MarkMarin

    DG,

    Anything percolating for TBT in your system? We seem to have had a capitulation to new lows after TLT rallied 38% to it’s recent highs. There may be a low risk set up here in the next few days.

  37. Felix

    Can gold be in the C-wave sans silver participating?

    Why is the parabola “broken” so it can’t be rebuilt?

    Could the silver parabola have been meant to throw you off before a gold repeat?

    Just obvious questions. Thanks!

  38. aviat72

    There is a simple answer to all the questions about WHY? (i.e. Why not a climax in Gold or a new parabola in Silver).

    Probability as viewed by Gary.

    Gary has his framework and based on what his framework says, he makes his calls.

    Based on his framework it is best to keep the power dry even if you miss out on the last surge.

    One simple look at the charts tells you why. Do the charts in May look anything like the chart for the rest of the C-Wave?

    Of course anything can happen. Do remember that at least from the trading point of view, cash too is a position. So when probability does not favor you stay in cash or trade small.

  39. Felix

    Yes thank you, a72.

    Questions are just a fairly obvious reaction to the unlikely-miracle-Plan-B-Hawaii-Bravo-scenario deal, you know, not from just my own head of course.

  40. Poly

    A72, if it’s just a normal move to an IT low then it’s an expected picture of weakness. Plus the daily hasn’t failed, plenty of short and med term options, being short is not called for by the cycles yet. But I do agree, being aggressive or heavy here is not a great idea, IMO.

  41. Vamsee

    The final parabolic move in Gold’s C wave starts tomorrow. Gold is header to 1685+ and Dollar is headed to 68 or lower.

    I guess pretty much everyone is bearish at this moment. Thats good enough to justify πŸ™‚

  42. Vamsee

    Bob, you won’t believe what you’re gonna see in the next 2 months. S&P close to 1500 & gold over $1685. Am sure silver will kick back in gear too.

    This should be very interesting.

  43. E

    so is the correction over yet? is everyone confused as I am? i have both slv puts and gld calls, guess thats the confusion showing.

  44. DG

    MarkMarin: Nope. TLT is not overdone enough to the upside for me to be able to claim “that’s all she wrote.” To be fair TLT and TBT are my worst trading vehicles judging by my performance. I have no idea why, but they are. I take my own signals on them with a grain of salt. (Maybe the Fed overtly manipulating that market? Whatever. but if something is not working I shy away from it.)

  45. Bob loves Hawaii

    David, we never got a D wave signal, so I stayed long gold. I have been managing with weekly sold calls, but the Comex OI is absurdly strong for a D wave approaching.

    iners breaking out GDX ahead of GLD was comforting.

    Silver may shock people, although I have hardly any long SLV.

  46. Dan

    I think its becoming obvious we are due for a bounce here as the miners have finally started to hold up. I may buy in tomorrow for a short-term bounce but this is not the end of the correction. PMs will not blast off to new highs into the middle of the summer doldrums after silver has broken its parabolic move.

  47. Dan

    I should add that if you go back and review the action of past crashes you will find that PMs will sometimes move up for several weeks in the summer months only to roll back over and make new lows. Theres still too many newbies here and far too much excitement and dreams of getting rich quick. Corrections are not only defined in price but also in time and although I personally dont think we have met either but we are definitely no where near the “time” requirement.

  48. T

    Does anyone think silver may rally? It opened at $33 last Thursday and hasn’t come near that since…

  49. Felix

    Dan – I am new enough but I don’t think anyone has the answer to my question. I don’t ask out of greed, but because I don’t think there’s much behind it but mere hope. It’s also rather contrarian to the G-man so perhaps it could be backed up as more than hunches – that is what I imagined, anyway.

  50. Bob loves Hawaii

    David, no worries. I jumped in, FWIW, I agree with you. I am not expecting a parabolic move, but there seems unfinished business on the long side, and want to ride it.

  51. David

    Felix,

    I think the argument is that gold never had the parabolic move that defines a C-wave top.

    We also did not see the dollar break to new lows, despite the vast amount of QE that should have sent it there.

    Also, the big move in the dollar that we’ve just had could simply be a countertrend rally on the way to those new lows.

    These arguments don’t persuade me personally, but that’s the bull case in a nutshell.

  52. James

    Dan said “Theres still too many newbies here and far too much excitement and dreams of getting rich quick.”

    You could have fooled me. I’ve seen very little evidence of optimism on the blog lately about where pm’s are headed. Quite to the contrary actually.

  53. Gary

    If the dollar is going to make new lows then it would require the dollar’s intermediate cycle to top in only 8 days. It would then head generally lower till Sept or Oct.

    That would suggest gold’s intermediate cycle would last 30-35 weeks long before it even tops. We would then need another 6 to 10 weeks for the D-wave to run it’s course so all in all an intermediate cycle lasting 40+ weeks.

    I don’t think that’s ever happened before.

    Unless gold can manage a parabolic rally along with the dollar rallying there is little precedent for a parabolic move at this point.

    There is precedent for a counter trend rally to get everyone’s hopes up and then suck them down into another leg lower though.

  54. Hack

    Quite a few folks are buying miners now. They look strong and will do good on Wednesday. Watch SLW, ANV, IAG, and RGLD.

  55. Hot Rod

    On the Silver 2 hour chart, we are in the midst of a 7 in a row green candle. If this holds, it will be the longest run since that night back on April 24/25 when silver spiked to 49.80.

    What it means, IDK.

    Bollinger band is also getting quite narrow.

    Popcorn anyone? Enjoy the show.

  56. Hot Rod

    If there is anyone online that is an “aggressive portfolio” subscriber and is willing to help me out with a question – I would greatly appreciate if you could drop me a quick e-mail.

    I’ll leave it up until I get a response.

    Thanks.

    [email protected]

  57. Brian

    Gary, With regard to your post about how gold making a parabola now would stretch the time factor.

    I seem to remember you saying the last intermediate cycle in C Waves were always extremely right translated. Am I remembering this correctly?

  58. NJ

    Gary:
    From your experience at such junctures, how has the BLEES reacted? Has it increased with falling prices if this is an intermediate? Or decreased with falling prices if D wave? Also, am guessing if prices rise, the BLEES will continue to fall? Lastly, we know that so far, gold has not stretched significantly over the mean. But how do you interpret the BLEES still holding strong and not falling under 10 or 20 at major C wave tops?
    Thanks!

  59. Poly

    Why would the dollar need to top in 8 days? Why can’t the IT cycle fail? This way you have many weeks for a top, which could allow for a gold IT low. The next gold IT cycle could be the one.

  60. Gary

    NJ,
    Most of the commercial traders are miners hedging production. So not unexpectedly the Blees rating tends to fall as gold goes higher and rise as gold drops.

    Tops are tough to spot and it doesn’t matter whether you are smart money or retail so a 0 on the Blees rating doesn’t mean much. Gold can and often does continue to climb higher for months after the Blees rating hits a maximum bearish 0.

    Bottoms are much easier to spot and when the Blees rating hits 100 it’s usually time to buy almost immediately.

  61. Poly

    Well not saying now. But why couldn’t it find it’s IT low as this new dollar cycle tops, say within the next 3-5 weeks?

  62. Silverhound

    Poly

    I’m with you when you say we need to see confirmation of a trend reversal. It has nothing to do with hope or denial or the number of newbies. The dollar does appear to have bottomed but that is it so far. Here are the charts I’ve been watching. Just a note, these are drawn with no regard to cycle timing.

    US dollar is facing it’s main test for the uptrend to continue.

    USD chart

    UUP chart shows the buying volume kicked in at the Head n Shoulders target however we haven’t seen positive divergence on the MACD which was the leading indicator for the previous bottoms. Price is also at the common level where fakeout rallies have failed before.

    UUP chart

    All this may just be academic and we may just be waiting for the doctor to arrive and pronounce the corpse clinically dead.

  63. Haggerty

    Myiagi oyyyh
    Are you still holding your shorts on SLV?
    As of today I’m still have my GLD puts but don’t know if I should hold. Just wondering what you are doing?

  64. Gary

    Hagerty,
    If you took puts on GLD they need to be far enough out to let the intermediate cycle bottom. That means at least July.

    You also aren’t going to do yourself any favors by trying to jump in and out of them with every little wiggle. You will just end up whipsawing yourself to death.

    Those are positions that you just take and then close your eyes and let them work until the intermediate cycle bottoms.

  65. Rebecca

    Hi Silverhound,

    Thanks for the great charts. I am with you and poly, leaning toward the possibility that we may still be in C-wave and there may be another IT cycle for $USD to make the 3yr low. Indeed this is not based on hope or wishful thinking, but sound analysis. As Gary has pointed out the current $USD IT cycle has not top yet. This is supported by the fact that your UUP chart doesn’t show a negative divergence yet. As a comparison negative divergence was clearly visible in your UUP chart when $USD topped in Dec’10-Jan’11. My plan is not to play the current whipsaws, but to wait for Gary’s call for a $USD IT btm to jump back in.

    Gary,

    Thanks for the excellent cycle analysis. It gives me a clear road map of what is ahead and confidence to trade.

    Rebecca

  66. Silverhound

    G’day Rebecca

    Yes I’ve noticed you mention the divergence on the dollar chart before so it seems we are both watching out for it. I have to admit, it is something that I look for. Of course it doesn’t have to happen and if the rally continues unabated we will have to settle for “confirmation” of the MACD as you know. I guess it doesn’t hurt to be patient at times like this to see what unfolds. Thanks for posting your thoughts.

  67. Dan

    Hot rod,

    Your right, the dollar is just crawling along the 50dmva and really starting to look like a bull flag to me.

  68. notGreedIsGood

    good thing i got out my SLV puts yesterday… kinda a bonus that I made $60 out of the transaction for something in which I was expecting to pay tuition for my first foray into options…

    anyways I think I’ll wait until SLV reaches 35 or 36 b4 I re-enter July 25 SLV puts, if both DOC and Gary seemed convinced that stocks are bottoming on the daily cycle, I’d say the odds are good that we’d get a good rally on silver, although i’d be hesitant to play this rally.

  69. jeff

    Gary

    I can’t help to think you would be openly talking about your inklings if it wasn’t in a different report. As difficult as things are right now, I don’t like feeling as though I’m just getting the punk report

  70. DG

    Possible buy signal! If Dow closes down modestly there is a good chance of a buy. Means a 1% rally within 2-3 days. May mark the bottom G has been looking for. I will post near the close. If we close up, no signal is possible.

  71. jeff

    I don’t know that I want stratageys, but I don’t want to miss info
    I already have trouble pulling the tigger when you say shoot
    Although I am much better

  72. Armo

    IMO we are in no-man’s land here – time to eat sandwiches and wait for an edge – the hardest thing to do in this business is to do nothing, most people want the excitement of being in the game – it’s times like this that can chip away at your account balance.

  73. oa92000

    “Driver said…
    oa, the swing low doesn’t necessarily mean we’ll be going up from here.”

    thx! that will be Only Amazing…

  74. DG

    Gary: I’m a little confused. When you first created the aggressive report you said you hoped no one would get it (which I didn’t quite understand—why create it, then?) Now you have mentioned it sort of as a teaser several times. Seems like advertising it, which decrease the chances that “no one will subscribe.” As well, my sense is that anyone who needs it to know which options to buy probably shouldn’t be buying options. What am I missing here?

  75. ...at ease

    I believe he does. As long as Gary provides us with his cycle analysis of the Gold/Silver/Miners and the condition of the general markets we are good to go. Not much to do right now, unless you want to risk losing money.

  76. Dan

    It’s seems the price to receive gary’s trade information has simply gone up. If you stick with the regular subscription you don’t get the same product you used to.

    Btw can someone here just disclose the cost. Ive sent an email to Gary requesting it but not sure why it’s being kept a secret of sorts.

  77. ...at ease

    Dan,
    Depends on what you want to pay for. I would think with risk/reward and preserving capital important right now for the A wave as Gary has stressed, you would be best to sit tight and wait for the market to come to you, not chase high risk, low reward trades. If you listen to most traders here, that is what they are doing.

  78. Dan

    Bob,

    You disagree but then you state he “removed” something…. Does that not inherently make it a different/lesser product?

  79. sophia

    The little calls on Brent that I bought yesterday are working nicely.. 15% …took profit and going to buy a new pair of shoes with the poceeds

  80. sophia

    Guys, that is the price that Gary decided to make us pay for giving him such a tough time 2 weeks ago…that is all

  81. Vonda

    Yeah, I’m not feelin’ it with the teasers for the bigKids’ portfolio. Starting to feel elitist, i.e., “I have ideas about your question, but I’ll only discuss it in the aggressive portfolio, which you can’t have because I really don’t want you to buy it, (unless you fit into that 1%)–in fact, I really don’t even want to talk about it, as it’s sort of a secret, but hey, good question and thanks for asking!”

    I liked the old Gary, the one I signed up with last summer.

  82. sophia

    I understand Gary’s frustration but I think that it is unfair for all of us who have been supportive of his work…As usual a few bitter people are making others pay

  83. Aaron

    Gold still holding, the USD printed a swing, all looks well for 1500 to fall and then an attack on 1520.
    Good enough for me.

  84. Vonda

    Ooh! Where do I sign up, Jayhawk?

    Seriously, it’s not the precise trades–I don’t want my face attached to a computer screen all day every day. As someone else said, it’s the information, the dialogue, and the exchange of ideas. Someone asked about a momentum “inkling” and Gary said he had discussed that in the elite report, the same elite report that he doesn’t want to sell to anyone and, in fact, even the price is secret. If this isn’t a backroom boys’ club (where’s the claret?), then what is?

    Additionally, all of the many comments of late (not by Gary, but others) along the lines of “If you don’t know what strike price to buy; then you shouldn’t be trading options” are financially sanctimonious–perhaps true, but still snide. My god, you would think all of these traders were born fluent in optionGreek. Why not just say–as a few people have–“Be very careful. They’re tricky bastards. And here are a couple of places where you might want to learn and practice before taking a swim.”

    Options, obviously, can be an incredibly useful tool. Instead of trying to frighten or discourage people, or worse, make it seem as if it’s some amazing mystery only 1% can ever hope to penetrate, why not continue discussing them responsibly?

    Now I need a claret.

  85. Driver

    My take on Gary’s “new” service is that he’s trying to protect the more novice folks from investing like he does; therefore, he’s giving the “old” service subscribers what he thinks they need to know. If you want the stronger medicine, you will have to make an effort to get it (pay more money.)

  86. Mr. T

    Gary, I would like your opinion on something; it looks like GDX formed a coil (do you agree?) and coils fake-break one direction (in today’s case-up) and are usually then followed by a counter (in GDX’s case, a move down). I know you probably view the reversion to the mean a stronger attractant for price movements, but could GDX be faking a move up and continue down over the next few days?

  87. Michael

    Gary, I and many others would appreciate you reconsidering your decision to not publish your portfolio. It is fine to give aggressive investors a choice and no problem with them paying you for that. However, publishing your portfolio allowed us to gauge our decisions based on discounting or adjusting to the risk you take. Now, we have to adjust according to a hypothetical portfolio that you only really know the risk to. In my mind and from the comments on the blog, this has created more confusion in knowing how to trade.

    Mike

  88. Silverhound

    Vonda

    You have missed your calling for sure, or were born in the wrong era…..you should have been a gangsters doll in the roaring 20’s πŸ™‚

    Didn’t you know that “VWP” is the new SMT. It sounds like we need a massive cash injection in here to prop up all the bad debt…..erm leverage….. QE anyone?

  89. Keys

    I am wondering about a slow demise…interest rates slow to increase, real inflation stays high in food and energy slowly taking away from family homes, slow increase to taxes…and without a proper pop and drop, no real place to make money.

    Throwing it out there as a thought. Ah well back to sleep ZZZZZ

  90. Edwin

    the bull wasn’t dead unless it cross below 1460

    this is a relief rally, it bounced perfectly. gotta love the algos.

    time will tell if it has legs. gold must trade over 1515, spx over 1340.

  91. Vonda

    Silverhound,

    Hate to admit, you might be right about that gansta prediction/memory, especially considering the metaphor that comes to my mind today. As the bulls say “Gold’s holding $1,500!,” the way I (bearishly) see it: what’s the point of being able to hold an erection if it can’t penetrate anything?

    Hope I haven’t offended (too much) with financial eroticism on an otherwise ho-hum day. I’m off to grab a pint in Cork before Her Majesty arrives and shuts down all the pubs.

  92. Silverhound

    Gary

    Do you have a view on Armstrongs 8.6 year cycle? He has a new cycle starting from a low in June this year and peaking in late 2015. I only read his letters off and on but it seems to work in with your thoughts on the timing of the Gold bubble.

  93. ALEX

    the Question was simply…GDX and HDXJ are up, do you have an inkling of how far up they may go??

    the answer was…Blogger Gary said…

    I do have an inkling and I went over it in the aggressive portfolio report last night πŸ™‚

    May 18, 2011 6:59 AM

    That question seemed fair…not asking for an ” RISKY options play”… just asking as a subscriber…Do you think you know GDX price target??

    Am I wrong?? Wasnt the AGGRESSIVE portfolio just a portfolio for aggressive traders?

  94. seethruskin

    This reminds me of airline baggage fees. Now you have to pay extra for something that used to be included with the cost of your purchase.

    It leaves a bitter taste in your mouth.

    Gary please reconsider. Knowing how you actually trade is more educational than a “model” portfolio. If people blow up their accounts due to inexperience or over-exuberance, that is their responsibility, not yours.

  95. Avann

    I think some marketers got a hold of Gary … when he starts withholding information from the newsletter and then starts blogging about how we can see this info in the premium subscription … something doesn’t smell right.
    My worry … he’ll start focusing his energy on the premium letter (where after all is where his money is) an leave the rest of us with some crumbs.

    IMO … both letters should be 100% identical … the only difference should be in the portfolio makeup … that was the intent that I got.

  96. Josh

    I love it. There’s already a black market for Gary’s agressive portfolio. Gotta love the free market.

  97. Hack

    Trying to make up for lost ground by taking risky positions will only make things worse. Keep some cash and buy the miners on dips with a tight leash on them, you’ll make money…

  98. I've Eaten Silver

    Gary’s doing the right thing, leaving the riskier trades more private now. In the end following the conservative portfolio for the remainder of the bull (many years left) will suit you thousands of percent. Most of you don’t honestly know what is good for you. Many probably are trying to do “comeback” trades after irresponsible previous trades. Just chill out and be thankful Gary’s normal service is as cheap as it is anyways.

  99. ...at ease

    Yes, it would be interesting to know if anyone who has upgraded to the seletive email portfolio SMTP service find it worth the investment and lucrative enough to recommend.
    Many of us provided rave reviews on Gary’s service to any who asked us our opinion of Gary to possible new subscribers asking what we thought of his service. Many times Gary suggested they ask us personally our opinions and we fully supported his service and advice.
    Seems like many are wondering if those who have moved up can recommend Gary’s new select portfolio email service worth the higher price to those who are considering the move up.

  100. Vonda

    Watered-down, indeed, Silverhound.

    I like my whisky neat (of course.)

    Gary, if you’re out there, how about just being straight-up with your new, stratified, service?

  101. I've Eaten Silver

    You guys aren’t thinking very hard.

    Gary has 1000s, I think actually, no it is, 10,000s of subscribers.

    You think he should issue risky option trades to that many subscribers? Most are 40, 50+ and just want to, and should go Old Turkey.

    The premium subscription is more for traders. If you think you are a trader, you better get your head on straight- 90% of traders end up losing money.

    I want it now, oh yeah, that’s what you are saying- Be patient. Maybe if you learn patience eventually you’ll be able to become a trader.

  102. Vonda

    I’ve Eaten,

    I think what might have set this off, as Alex pointed out a few comments above, is the question that was asked, was a simply one of magnitude regarding price of miners. No one was requesting any kind of strategy, aggressive or otherwise.

    What s/he received was a tantalizing reply from Gary that he had discussed that very thing in last night’s upscale report. Period. (or actually, some sort of “wink”.)

    It sounds as if you are suggesting that “for their own good” people should be kept in the dark?

  103. Mr. T

    I have subscribed to Gary’s aggressive portfolio service, because I understand options well, and have used his suggestions to mold my decisions. Many have been things I wasn’t looking for, some plays I’ve made in advance of his suggestions, and have done well with some of them.

    That being said, what he recommends is indeed aggressive, risky, and frankly requires management without him. The premium service cost is comparable to any other service providing similar information (and Frankly Gary does a better job than others). I would only recommend it if you are seasoned speculator and trader, and can weather big draw-downs, and manage risk extremely well.

    Lastly, the meat of his value is in the regular service, the premium service is exactly what he describes – risky plays that are probably going to be wrong more than they are right, so if one can manage the risks well with taking 2 wrong positions, for every 1 correct one, and balance the risk/reward ratio to ensure a portfolio that generally moves higher, pony up the money…

  104. I've Eaten Silver

    If you TRADE options, and have a BIG account, minimum 6 figures you’d POSSIBLY want the premium.

    I don’t trade options so I see no reason in getting it. Also I don’t know what you are talking about when you say the subscription/reports are different now? The nightly analysis on the dollar, market, and gold are identical as they were prior to him announcing the premium subscription! The only difference is his listed portfolio. Most people had different portfolios than him anyways.

    If I had to conjecture, his premium is just added leverage, and options. He was short 5% in the normal the other day, and maybe short 10 or 15% in the premium. I highly doubt he was buying any puts or calls at the time.

    Remember the last time Gary said to be in cash, prior to the last intermediate decline? Yeah, it worked.

  105. ALEX

    IVE EATEN SIVER

    Try to read this and understand it-

    the ORIGINAL Question was simply…GDX and GDXJ are up, do you have an inkling of how far up they may go??

    NOT ASKING FOR CRAZY OPTIONS TRADE…just a possible GDX target. The answer was…

    …Blogger Gary said…

    I do have an inkling and I went over it in the aggressive portfolio report last night πŸ™‚

    May 18, 2011 6:59 AM

    That question seemed fair…not asking for an ” RISKY options play”… just asking as a subscriber…Do you think you know GDX price target??

  106. MrMiyagi

    SLV/GLD opened with back gap up that will eventually get filled.

    On a bright note, all the snow is officially gone from my yard.

  107. I've Eaten Silver

    Vonda,

    Gary was talking about the ratio. That ratio probably doesn’t need to be public on the blog because that information was for subscribers. I don’t see anyways how one would have a question when it was very simply laid out in the other night’s report.

    I actually combine Gary’s analysis with the Doc for trades now. That has worked well. That ratio was up past 7 yesterday and so I took a small trade with GDXJ. Again this is what’s considered a counter trend rally which should, for most, be avoided.

  108. Rob L.

    There are too few people on this blog who offer a justified and respectful critique of Gary’s calls (DG is one of those respectful people, IMO). It saddens me to see such barbaric insults and many unwarranted criticisms hurled at Gary to the point where it has now become sport on this blog.

    I would not be surprised if Gary said, “To hell with this” and shut everything down. We all have our limits and Gary’s patience has been incredible.

    Gary, if you ever get to the end of your rope and you decide to shut things down, please think about shutting the comments section first and keep your daily posts running – they have helped me immensely over the last few months.

    Many of the comments on this blog have left me shaking my head. Shameful is all I can say.

  109. I've Eaten Silver

    Alex,

    Do you think Gary should respond to everyone of your questions everyday for $250 a year or something. You know how much time that would consume of his, for pennies on the hour?

    He’s trying to tell you for the amount of time you’re taking up, go get the premium subscription.

    Targets? Haven’t you traded enough to have a good idea yourself? Follow the Doc, he took that same trade yesterday- you’ll know when he covers.

  110. Gary

    Sophia,
    The only thing different is that I cover more aggressive strategies. Some are in the metals sector and some are not related at all. I’m just looking for things that I think have an edge.

  111. ...at ease

    Thank you Mr. T for your response. You have confirmed for me that Gary’s other service is definately for more experienced and not for those not willing to take on heavy risk and who might be more distracted or worried about heavy losses. I think you would have to fully understand the risk/rewards to know how to play Gary’s higher service.

  112. ALEX

    SILVER

    1)Iit wasnt my question

    2) He DID respond, right?? So he took the ‘time’ (which you are saying is why he didnt), he just avoided the questions answer.

    3) what is this blog for, if not for discussing trades??

    then you said ..”He’s trying to tell you for the amount of time you’re taking up, go get the premium subscription.”

    Were you here when he said ” I do NOT want ANYONE to buy this report, so I will jack the price up for that reason.”

    Then you said…”Targets? Haven’t you traded enough to have a good idea yourself? “

    answer … no, I’m new at this. I actually started trading last week, but again, that aside…It wasnt MY question. Please scroll up, and get on page before you add your brilliance πŸ™‚

    Is this ROBERT the drunk, that blew his account out and then Blew his stack at Gary, scolding him ruthlessly last winter?? No answer needed…I already know it is…another blogger emailed me that you are he…dont waste my time πŸ™‚

  113. ...at ease

    As long as Gary continues to cover his analysis of the gold/silver/miners, we should be fine following his philosophy. If you want to know how heavy he invests or types of strategies he uses you can go back to archives as a subscriber to research.
    Gary, I was just hoping you will cover the HUI/miners in your report, since we are seeing some action.

  114. Gary

    Folks your wasting your time. I won’t be changing my mind. The strategies in the aggressive portfolio are not for the average investor. If you don’t have at least a million dollar account and a complete understanding of how options work and more importantly control of your emotions then you will most likely just blow up your account.

    If you aren’t satisfied with the normal cycles, sentiment and technical analysis in the regular SMT then just cancel your subscription.

    Hell for a measly $200 a year I think most of you have made more money in the last year than many of you have made in the last 5. The only difference now is that you are being forced to make a realistic judgment of what your true risk tolerance is.

  115. Dan

    Don’t know if anyone noticed but HUI is really not doing all that great here, up 1% with gold up 0.6%. Nice to see them not lagging but if this was a THE bottom miners would be far outperforming the metals after the massive declines we’ve seen the past few weeks. Add to that if the dollar close at it’s current level it will look like a continuation of the bull flag formation.

  116. Elaine

    “Hell for a measly $200 a year I think most of you have made more money in the last year than many of you have made in the last 5.”

    For me, that’s for darn sure.

  117. Clarkatroid

    it feels like your rubbing our noses in it, constantly mentioning the extra service, then saying it’s not for 99% of us and it’s going to be rediculously expensive.

    Come on, play fair Gary, you have many loyal followers here, I’m one if them, please don’t make us suffer because one or two short sighted idiots needled you

  118. MrMiyagi

    If you didn’t know it was there, would you be asking for it?

    Take the analysis here along with simple protfolio examples, look at some other sites and opinions and make your own decisions. There are some pretty good ideas that get posted on this blog regularly by not just Gary but others as well.

  119. Gary

    I’m not the one constantly mentioning it. Everyone else is. And Clark you are way too inexperienced to be messing with extremely risky strategies.

    If you aren’t satisfied with the SMT then cancel your subscription.

    And if this crap continues for much longer then I’m going to remove the aggressive portfolio option altogether.

  120. Aaron

    Jay, it depends on what you are expecting for the USD. I believe that the top is in, that it came on day 8, and that this will be a long cycle (as opposed to the previous short one), and that should set us up for a good 2-3 week decline.
    So, it fits in with my time frame, since I think that the gold high of this IT cycle is still ahead of us.

  121. Felix

    SMT is great, Mr. Savage, and your analysis is invaluable. Please don’t get frustrated, people are always fickle. (Isn’t that why we have cycles?) You help make the markets understandable and the trends tradeable.

    I’m very glad someone sent me here.

  122. NJ

    Gary:

    Regarding the BLEES. Will you be a buyer if it tags 100 irrespective of where the $$$ and Gold are? Trying to figure out if BLEES is more important than cycle timing bands and price levels.

    Thanks!

  123. NJ

    and yes – Thanks for your great work. Please keep it up for this Gold bull and for many more after it! πŸ™‚

  124. Clarkatroid

    I’m sorry but that’s very condescending. Rather than digest what I actually typed you’ve misinterpreted it and thrown it back in my face

    I know damn well I’m not experienced enough to use options, and I don’t need you to tell me that. I also dont need you to tell me I can cancel my subscription if I like. I think I’m capable of finding that one out also

  125. Wav_ridah

    FOMC minutes being released are form their April 26-27 meeting. Look at where the dollar and commodity prices where at this time. I’d be very surprised if their statements are not somewhat hawkish.

  126. Nike Boy2008

    Hi DG,

    Thank you for posting DG

    looking more and more like no red close today…hence no buy

    i was really looking forward to that buy signal…oh well

  127. Silverhound

    It’s all good having a bit of harmless fun, joking about making money. I can probably chime in about the real risks though. I’ve been through a couple of trades that gapped down 40% overnite. These weren’t a slow bleed over five days, frozen like a deer in the headlights before I finally cut my losses. The price just opened 40% lower the next day. These were only stocks, not leveraged ETF’s or option plays.

    They weren’t the kind of trades you aim for but with the high risk/reward stuff, the only way you can survive when the trade goes against you is to manage risk through position sizing and then trading your way back on the other side. You need to learn proper risk management or you can get wiped out. You really need to look at what you can lose on the trade before you look at how much you can make.

    Hope this helps put things in perspective.

  128. Ben

    daniels, Gary forgot to put his tag line at the bottom. I personally think a watermark across the center of the graph is also warranted, maybe in a thin font and lighter color.

  129. Ben

    Silverhound, I remember buying Mentor Graphics one time at $10 a share right before the close. Then they announced profits which fell far short of expectations and the after hours drop was 25%. So essentially my investment dropped 25% in the first ten minutes of ownership.

    Good times…

  130. Rebecca

    Ok, from what I have gathered.

    Lines in the sand
    $1462.40 & $1526.20 ($Gold)

    No man’s land in between. Playing the whipsaws are for the bravehearts.

    Visited DOC’s blog. Impressed by his May 15 post. Will subscribe.

    Rebecca

  131. oa92000

    Speculative rise in commodities is not inflation.This is lip service only because next month they will talk about the all too evident SOFT PATCH and need to hold rates at 0%

  132. daniele

    gary, this was just i want to say.Sorry for my english not so well comprensible.I know it was not you obviously πŸ™‚

  133. Ben

    Way, I suspect the market will have skepticism regarding the end of QE2, knowing that QE1 was quickly followed by QE2.

    “Fool me once, shame on…. shame on you…….. Fool me, you can’t get fooled again!!” — GWB

  134. Cory

    My working thesis at the moment is that the market has been beginning to price in a rate hike on the dollar, and will either do a midpoint consolidation or at most do a small dip to the most recent pivot or 20DMA on this “public news” before moving up again. Gold and silver will get a small pop here as part of the swing low in this midpoint consolidation like last week, maybe to get to a max pain area for options expiry, before a great shorting opportunity in silver as it does the second leg down of this d wave. Just what could happen. Be nimble. When there’s gaps and large percentage daily moves it’s still a bear mindset. I’m still sitting in AGQ with a 166 basis, ready to sell from today to Friday and will short DITM SLV options on a swing high.

  135. Gold Lion

    I am not so sure miners can’t actually go up if interest rates do rise as long as oil goes down and the metals don’t completely fall out of bed. Energy is the biggest component of their expense costs.

  136. Cory

    I agree with Gary and think miners are the place to be for the next ABC run. Right now they rise and fall with inflation/energy costs, but in the next wave we will get the buyouts/mergers/acquisitions frenzy that inflates the P/E ratios as hedges speculate on who the big boys are buying out next to gain more supply. They will ignore the associated energy costs.

  137. Dan

    Oa,

    Who says the dollar is going to .68? I see a bull flag developing over the past few days right over the 50dmva.

  138. Hot Rod

    Cory,

    Yes, thanks for sharing.

    When you say “short DITM SLV options on swing high” do you mean buy DITM puts or sell calls?

    On a swing high, are you talking about a swing high in Gold or Silver? How much higher are you seeing silver in this bounce? 36? 37?

    Would you mind posting if you do take the trade?

    Thanks.

  139. Aaron

    oa, Im not sure about 68, but if cycle theory is to be used here, a lower low on the USD is possible due to the LT nature of the current cycle, if the highs from 2 days ago remain so.

  140. Cory

    There’s a gap in silver up above, but it’s got some good resistance to get thru to fill it. People were buying calls by the buckets on the way up, and puts recently on the waterfall. The market does a good job of taking the public’s money, so I was just speculating that it would find a middle ground a little higher before resuming the trend. Just like Gary I will buy DITM puts 8-12 above strike with a good delta in either Oct or Jan to take time decay out of it as much as possible. No lottery tickets or excess leverage. Looking for junior miners at the bottom.

  141. Cory

    HR,

    I’m going to say the same things Gary says, nobody has a crystal ball. The biggest adjustment everyone needs to make is for their starting capital, risk tolerance, and where in the waves they bought their first position (weak hand/strong hand status). The market usually makes controlled T1 type moves during bull times where you want to Old Turkey it. During bear times the swings are bigger and harder to time, and it’s hard to make money on either side without experience and the holding periods are much shorter. The best advice I can give is follow gary’s wisdom and buy/sell where there is huge volume just above/below major pivots. That’s where money is made in this game, not after the market has revealed it’s hand.

  142. Cory

    Miyagi,

    The strength in the dollar and the gap below on SLV is why I think this is a quick false move up as part of a midpoint consolidation/options expiry and the money will be on the short side very quickly.

  143. ...at ease

    Rob L.
    I wouldn’t get too upset about folks comments about Gary’s response to my question. We all appreciate Gary’s abilities and analysis work.

    The reaction lots of folks had was in response by Gary in the past not wanting this other service really to be known or requested unless you have lots of experience, so Gary actually opened up the dialog centered back on what he had said previously he didn’t want to discuss in response to my question this morning.

    DG, Alex and Vonda and others points are valid.

    I did not get a response I expected, however I respected Gary’s answer that he didn’t want to tell me anything that he may have discussed in his other service that others pay for. I also think he has a valid point in having separate services and respect that as he wants folks to understand risk/reward investing/trades as he has said many times.

    I can also understand that others are feeling hurt not getting what they received in the past.
    I can’t blame them either. I didn’t like it either. But I trust Gary’s judgment call on his service.

    Change and learning curves are hard to adapt to all the way around. In time we hopefully will be a happy group again once everyone is feeling the coins rattling in the pockets again.

    Hopefully Gary will go over miners actions in tonights report.
    Thanks Gary, I appreciate your work and posts.

  144. Gary

    I am going to go over the miners in tonight’s report and I will answer Alex’s question in tonight’s report.

  145. Hot Rod

    Cory,

    Thanks. Can I ask what you are seeing is the overhead gap and resistance before it?

    How do you make a determination that it’s overbought enough and time to start entering shorts again?

    Thanks.

  146. Cory

    The gap is at about 37 on an SLV daily chart, the midpoint pivot from March is just below 36. The $SILVER chart won’t show it.

  147. Poly

    Good report Gary.

    It does oddly enough seem that sentiment (you can see it here) got crushed around the board, but Gold bullion stayed strong relatively, with a much stronger dollar too.

  148. funmike

    I see that the margin requirements have gone up again on oil. Seems like they want to play the same game with oil that they did with silver. What concerns me is that oil has sometimes led the commodities and so if it takes a hit then gold might as well.

  149. basil

    I am confused so we are not in aD wave yet? The C wave is still on, or we r at a daily cycle low within a d wave decline? Which one is it? Anyone ? Thx

  150. Gary

    We can’t know that until gold either violates 1462 or makes a new high. At the moment we are in no man’s land.

  151. Bob loves Hawaii

    Funmike, the also lowered silver and gold margin. Interesting that yesterday Hog Kong opened their exchange for gold and silver with lower margin.

    People will simply trade there if they play that game again.

  152. ...at ease

    Rebecca and Juan, Doc is out of town this weekend, give him some time to get back to you. Tell him Gary referred you and Gary can get a free subscription for a few months.

  153. Bob loves Hawaii

    Gary, interesting pattern mapping at Turd’s site today. A possibility to consider, also Jesse posts charts with futures Opex dates built in. Always forms a bottom.

    Some basis for a final C move.

  154. james r

    Yes it will be interesting to see if the Hong Kong exchange will have any significant impact on how gold/silver is traded during Europe and U.S. time zones.

    (Maybe no more NY smack downs!)

  155. oa92000

    The 1980 speculative bubble in silver collapsed when COMEX [SICV1 35.30 0.203 (+0.58%) ]changed the future contract margin requirements from 10 percent to as high as 100 percent.

    Speculative rise in commodities is not inflation.

  156. Gary

    Except in real time a drop to $1400 (the bottom of the channel) would scare the pants off everyone here.

  157. Russell

    Gary,
    Cycles are based on emotions or sentiment, right? How do cycles account for the fact that China loves PMs. We always relate the drive for PMs in the US to our fear of inflation. How do cycles account for different inflation risks around the globe, now that PMs are traded around the world. Should we be tracking the Chinese currency in relation to movement of PM? Seems like there are more factors to PMs than just the US viewpoint.

  158. Gary

    Russel,
    If the cycles ever start to seriously deviate from the norm then I will start looking for reasons. So far they’ve been pretty predictable.

  159. TZ(8155)

    N1TRO,

    You were the self proclaimed highest leveraged person heading into the silver blowoff. Did things turn out ok? Haven’t seen you here in a while. Still kickin?

  160. n1tro

    TZ,

    I mentioned awhile back, I got my a$$ handed to me and took a $87K loss on my $133K profit in 2 days. Bitter sweet. I got out 2nd day of the “great raping” while others where still in denial so I guess count myself lucky. πŸ™‚

    Currently 5X leverage in gold long and aud/jpy carry trade.

  161. funmike

    Well I hope not. But there sure seems to be some that get a jump on the US market that might make it a handy option to keep open for some future event.

  162. Hack

    I like IAG, NGD, ANV and RGLD here. Plenty of upside here if played correctly. Watch out for signs of weakness in the market, a downturn would wipe out any gains you may realize.

  163. TZ(8155)

    On the market….

    I’ve been in cash for weeks now.
    I think the easy money has been made and the next slowdown or liquidity crunch or bob hoye ‘peak everything’ is now heading our way.

    Fed can’t print and needs to swing things back over to the other side for a while. They like all these hard assets dropping and want to see it continue. Only later will it start to affect more troublesome markets like general stocks and such. By then the masses and politicians will be screaming for relief again. “FED! FED! Please SAVE US”

    The gold and silver rallies are over for now. You guys trading in here are just dancing around razor blades (and trying to make up losses unfortunately).

    If gold and silver do something magical then I should have plenty of time to adjust and get in. MINIMALLY gold should put in a triangle *IF* it is going higher and I can use that to get in.

    Otherwise I think we have weeks to go before a bottom. I’m doing other things and just being patient until better trading occurs. Why push things?

  164. TZ(8155)

    Oh…something I’ve been meaning to say for a while.

    For SO SO long everybody has been saying “C waves don’t top like THIS”.

    I find that funny…cause one already *did*. In 2004.

    In fact, gold performed WORSE than it did now (and there was a similar silver blowoff).

    Didn’t anybody else see this?

  165. Keys

    Boys and Girls,
    This is relax time. Go cash and enjoy life for a bit. There is so much that can go up or down….I truly have been thinking about all this mess, and besides the very skillful traders(which I am not), nobody will make money…I have a feeling that gold will tempt on the upside and then tempt on the downside…silver will allure as well…the best thing to do is wait..and this will take weeks and then months, not days…
    Enjoy the family for a time, and take advantage…it is so rare that the market says “vacation time”..now is such a time. Of course what do I know….Summer is here…beer is here..pool time…or in front of the computer..your choice…would be one thing if the market was giving you something, but its giving you rust…rest up and come back strong when the time is right is my opinion…anyways good luck to all(as always)

  166. Gary

    In 04 gold stretched 22% above the 200 DMA and the HUI 44%. Keep in mind this was during the first phase of the bull market.

    The swings became larger and more volatile during the second phase which started in 06.

    Seems like a normal C-wave top to me.

  167. ALEX

    Gary-

    Well ,That was quite a complete report! Sentiment update, Targets, The Dollar, Spx, Gold, Silver , HUI,Gdx etc etc etc…what more could anyone ask for ?? πŸ™‚

    Thanks!

  168. Slumdog

    This commentariat has lost Stephen to the premium report. (imo).

    His excellent observations are not to be found here in the recent past, ever since the premium option became available.

    IMO, that’s very sad. Any others who were experienced, active trading posters no longer here?

  169. Gary

    Stephen did not enroll in the aggressive portfolio. Less than 1% of subscribers have opted for the aggressive portfolio.

  170. TheBookGuy

    I can’t believe that babies that hang out here. If you don’t like what someone provides you then don’t take their advice. It is very simple.

    If Gary is not what you want, fire him. If he is then just shut up and play nice. Stop all the whining and belly aching.

  171. Natanarchist

    I know most people reading this are not experienced professional traders so this is directed to those folks.

    The last 5 years but especially the last 3 have shown that the best time to buy is D wave bottom, and then summer and usually February, IT bottoms, then selling in around December, and spring. That’s 2 buys and two sells in a year..always keeping a core from original bottom and adding to it. Do that for a Gold cycle and you will MAKE minimum of 100%. Ask the old turkey folks who did this. Ask them how they sleep at night? That means most of time you are doing NOTHING…except enjoying your life.

    Ask the folks on SMT who tried to trade through the fall of ’10 and missed most of the move.

    haha…ending QE..haha..that’s funny..what would one call raising the debt ceiling? lets see a 14 trillion deficit..so we raise it to what 15, 16, 20 trillion? QE 2 was only 600 billion…ending QE…haha..as funny as thinking that somehow we are going to return a world you once knew a short few years ago…we are in the midst of a major paradigm shift…American hegemony is done, finished, therefore the US dollar as reserve currency is done finished. Wake up to this reality or you will be raped by your supposed leaders right to the end. If you thought a silver parabola crash was bad, that is nothing compared to a society crashing. And it is happening right before your eyes.

    I sure hope all of you are stashing some of your trading gains into physical gold. Acquire ounces of gold..and silver..but mostly gold. Its about ounces not about price.

    Still have long gold and some silver positions.

  172. Natanarchist

    Another opinion….I do not feel any slight by Gary towards the subs with this portfolio stuff. I have never held the any position Gary held. I don’t play stocks or options in my own trading. only futures and physical. BUT..his timing calls are excellent…(***ok don’t tell Gary but he tends to get psyched out over the Christmas holidays and jumps back in too soon. wait until end of Jan first of February…but don’t tell Gary I said that**)

    Basically I want G mans expertise on cycle timing.

    I keep my ears, EYES open for other short term fun trading recommendations from DG, Alex, who still rocks, Sb, poly, Pima, BobiH and others. I know I am missing here.

  173. jabalong

    Anyone have any recommendations on a good online primer on how options work?

    There’s a lot of talk around here about advanced options strategies and the perils of options for the unitiated, but also seems like a lot of people with no experience who’d like to learn.

    It’s tough to really get a handle of all the advice in the posts and just wondering if anyone has any sites they know of with a good ground-up reference on options to start off with.

    There’s no shortage of stuff out there, often it’s information overload, so maybe someone has a particular source they think is a good place to start. Thanks!

  174. Bill

    Nice report, Gary.

    Did you write that, or me? πŸ˜‰ ha ha ha! Let me have my day in the sun!

    OK, serious question here: do cycles support or conflict w/the scenario you laid out in your report? Thanks.

  175. TZ(8155)

    NAT,

    >haha…ending QE..haha..that’s funny..

    The Fed doesn’t not need to STOP printing to accomplish their goal.

    Currently, to be supported, the US (world) system has to progressively *increase* the printing at a faster and faster (compounding) rate.

    All the Fed must do to engender a slowdown like they are shooting for is REDUCE the RATE OF INCREASE of their printing. That alone will create the reversion back down of (first) the hard assets and (eventually) the more “public will start screaming for help” assets.

    None of the comments should be taken as the fed literally “stopping” printing even though that is the word many of us use to describe the situation. They will be lowering the SECOND DERRIVATIVE (accelleration) of the printing – for a *while*.

  176. TZ(8155)

    Lets simplify it:

    If YOU are broke and on a credit card (with interest fees) and *I* am paying your bills, then I have to progressively keep paying you more and more for you to have the SAME lifestyle.

    If things are getting out of hand (inflation, currency going through the floor – for a country), then all I have to do is BACK OFF paying this INCREASING stream of money.

    Instead of increasing it 1.5% a month, maybe I only increase it 1.3% a month.

    My payments (printing) are still going UP, but at a rate not able to meet the growing balance and interest payments.

    YOU will *HURT*. And will start a BK death spiral.

    But in this case (the Fed) get’s a temporary valuable benefit out of the hurt by jamming down the hard assets which were starting to to say “game over”, by ramping the paper currency back up and making it still look SOLID. And by letting some time pass and letting people hurt so they think the Fed is the GOOD guy and needs to HELP them get out of the problems (ironically caused by the same institution).

    Clearly, if I stopped paying your credit card you would crash and burn instantly. But that isn’t the game here. It’s a slight reduction in the INCREASING stream.

  177. Natanarchist

    Gary, other old time SMT’ers, Cory, Doc, Romeo, even Beanie…4 years ago, 3 years ago, shoot, 1 year ago… there was NEVER any discussion on this blog about options…EVER…

    people…leave that to the Pro’s…there is too much easy FIAT money to be made in easier vehicles than risking options when you don’t understand what your doing.

    Let me put in the simplest terms. You are playing IN a game with professionals. Do you think you can dunk over Dirk? Stop Lebron as he drives the basket? Put your head down once coming across the blue line and you will have 6’9 Zedno Chara give you a concussion.

    Alex, DG and Gary… correct me if I am wrong on this statement.

    To become a Professional, meaning a ROOKIE professional, requires 10 years of practice. Like musicians, athletes, professional traders require 10 years of training just to turn professional.

    nothing wrong with being a good amateur. I want the best for everyone.

  178. Natanarchist

    TZ..I am so far beyond the FED BS. The Politicians BS. The blatant propaganda of the so called media. Its all irrelevant to the outcome.

    We are stealing government employee’s pensions contributions as of today to continue the government ponzi scheme..LOL…which is really just the wealth that was stolen from the productive class of citizens. Tomorrow they will steal all AMERICANS pensions.

    Do you not see that our society is full of disease? Everywhere. Our minds have been poisoned/conditioned with lies and our bodies poisoned with chemicals.

    Remember, the people in power are human like you. They posses no more brain power than you. And DG knows about training your mind to resisting negative, which is evil in reality.

    Evil and psychopathic people exist. The most dangerous assume positions of “leadership” and exterminate millions of YOUR fellow humans.

    If this not been human history, please correct.

    Open your mind.

  179. Keys

    Well this retard is drinking beer by the pool. My thinks…too much here for me to think through. Me thinks the most likely event will be a strong C-Wave feeling, that goes into a strong D-Wave feeling…that leaves whoever trades this summer to a big loss, that will not allow them to enter in the gold bull again..but what do I know…This bull is a bitch and a bastard, but most think it a normal trade…Okay…..

    Natanarchist…you are dead on all your points…the only thing I like to do is take time during the eye of the storm…the battle will continue, and the assholes will continue….the government already robs us from so much, I don’t want to rob myself from my family when I can avoid it. Frankly, the battle goes on tomorrow, but our families need us now! So when we can avoid the fight, I tend to spend time with those we fight for. In all kindness.:)

  180. Wav_ridah

    If you want to learn options, find someone who knows how to use them, invite them for burritos, and pick their brain. Then do it again, and again, and again until you think you have a feel for it then take a dip, with money you can afford to lose. Or you can just sign up for the aggressive portfolio.

  181. Natanarchist

    Keys…I have 4 boys, teenagers too..I am with you 100%..that’s my priority, get my family through this disaster…pool and beer sounds good.

    For the Armstrong followers. He forecast that gold will break 1531 by end of March and if so, then hit 1700 plus by end of June. He also said if no 1531 in march then lower to 1200’s by June..So maybe he is off by 4 weeks?

    coolkev..any professor updates?

  182. Le Fou

    TZ

    No offense, but I find it peculiar to say the least, that you were dinging Eamonn about his beeping when you have LONG strings of deleted posts, some of which people have already replied to.

    You’re one of the more interesting posters here, and I want to know what those posts say! It makes my brain itch not to know, especially if someone has already replied.

    New Rule: If someone replies to one of your posts, leave it up!

    Best to you,
    Le Fou

  183. Le Fou

    BTW, I meant to do this earlier. I’m in Paris until Mon. If anyone wants to have coffee, leave a post. I’m staying on Rue Richer.

    Le Fou

  184. Beanie

    Next Microsofts are coming in tech and you guys are only interested in 100-200% gain in silver in 3-5 years?

    Take a look at stocks like APKT

  185. Beanie

    Options trading is for suckers. I’ve never made a dime on options when I add them all up over the years. Nada. Always losses.

    Avoid it.

  186. NJ

    Gary:

    A rookie question on cycles: Since cycles are measured from trough to trough, and it is difficult in real time to spot tops, how do you define “timing band for a top”?

    Is “timing band for top” = Normal Cycle Duration (Days) – Number of days it may take for the next daily cycle low?

    Hence the concept of “timing band for a top” applies only to Extremely RT cycles? While, for LT cycles, the top is clear once the daily cycle low break

    Thanks!

  187. Shalom Bernanke

    “I am so far beyond the FED BS. The Politicians BS. The blatant propaganda of the so called media. Its all irrelevant to the outcome.”
    -Natanarchist

    Same here. I don’t even listen to it anymore, much less try to analyze any of it. It’s probably why we make money.

    I also agree with Keys, enjoy life while patiently awaiting the next setup.

    Good luck guys. πŸ™‚

  188. PST

    Not trying to get the QE discussion going again, but there were some interesting comments out yesterday from Richard Koo (Nomura economist who has studied balance sheet recessions and the impact that QE programs have had during them).

    His conclusion is that it is not necessarily a dramatic increase in liquidity that is driving stocks and commodities higher but rather a substitution effect that is primarily responsible. He argues that the main driver of prices in risk assets has been the fact that investors are being forced out of US treasuries due to the low yields, and are forced into other alternatives to generate returns. With bonds and real estate (in US) underperforming other asset classes, investors have increasingly poured money into stocks, commodities and other risk assets instead.

    I haven’t read his piece or tried to confirm his theory (can look at Trimtabs data to track funds flows), but the argument does have validity. I think the question is how much of the increase in prices can be attributed to an increase in liquidity vs. this substitution effect. Personally, I’m not about to try to quantify this as it’s probably more important to just know that it is happening rather than the exact reasons why. Regardless, QE3 would mean that money would flow back into risk assets, irregardless of the liquidity or substitution arguments.

    I think his study is somewhat limited, however, in that it just looks at the monetary base expansion from QE in the US and does not consider other stimulative programs in the US (fiscal) as well as monetary and fiscal stimulus in Japan, China and the EU.

    Anyways, it’s just an interesting counter to the excess liquidity theory argument.

  189. Gary

    If I say something is in the timing band for a top it means it is a right translated cycle and is actually getting close or is into the timing band for the bottom. The would necessarily mean a top is due soon.

  190. jeff

    Gary

    So is smt going to just do miners and no straight gold?
    I would just have to do my best with the stops and deal with the divergences?

  191. ...at ease

    Can someone tell me if we are long or short on the SPY? Last I heard we were short? Now I see a post for portfolio, so which way?

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