229 thoughts on “Matterhorn”

  13. Russell

    Poly,
    Thanks for your prior comments. My wife and I have been debating about taking profits from our puts vs staying old turkey for the IC decline. We have waited for this predicted turn for weeks and now that our positions are in the green, I hate to exit and miss most of the ride.

  16. Michael

    Gary said:

    “I doubt the market is going to bounce back to 1310. 1300 would be good in my opinion. You aren’t going to get the exact top of counter trend rallies so I wouldn’t even try. Just pick spots that are “good enough”.


    Great Call

  17. Romeo Bravo

    Looks and sounds like you all are having a great time, though a bit chilly!

    Gary, for those that couldn’t make Switz. pool party at your place this fall, when it cools off in Vegas a tiny bit?

  18. Michael

    Eamonn,

    I have the 40 strike.. I like to keep it in the money.. and got them just after the big move up from OPEC meeting failure…so they were reasonably priced…

  26. Wav_ridah

    Michael, it’s a h&s dating back to the beginning of the year. The neckline is at the 32 area so we a way to go, but if it hits look out below (20 and change is longterm support). chart would look almost identical to oils parabolic rally that formed a h&s that fell to longterm support at 35. Internet is down doing this from the iPhone so I calling it a day. I’ll check back tonight.

  33. Haggerty

    Hey DG
    I took the plunge with DUG to this morning, pretty much in at 29.70….I have a stop at 28.50…do you have a stop? If so how far underneath where you bought it? Thanks

    Funny Whitebear

  36. samppa_nyman

    next week go short on stocks again, wait for rally or just chase the trend? Why is this topping process dragging so long, gold consolidating forever.

  37. DG

    Hag (I guess that’s not the best nickname, eh?) I am in at 29.09 on DUG. I probably would get out at cost if it got there, but I do not impose firm trading rules on myself. I am disciplined enough not to get killed in a position. I get out quick but hard to explain exactly how. Break even is a good idea as a rule of thumb once you have a nice profit in something.

  44. Éamonn

    DG, you really think the euro is going to explode, don’t you?
    EU politics being as it is they wont take action until the last minute/crisis. So I reckon we could see this issue rumble on for a few years.

  50. DG

    Eamon: I don’t care when/if the euro explodes. I will sell my euo at 23 when everyone THINKS it’s about to explode. I never marry a position. Watch the headline over the next 45 days…

  54. Gann360

    Wow Silver now filling the 10 min Gap,,if it doesn’t recapture the Intra day double bottom real soon here,,,,,Silver could fall hard,,,

  56. Poly

    If you’re talking currencies, another good option for opposite reason is to look at FXA (short), the Australian Dollar, easily the most over valued currency out there.
    It’s tied to the china and commodities story. We get a bought of deflation and a worldwide slowdown, this baby will be back below $0.90 vs $US before you know it. $A0.75 to the dollar is not out of the question.

  57. Haggerty

    I’m wondering how we are going to open Monday? Maybe another big down day, then Tuesday people will jump on the short side and the market will rally and screw them.

    Anyone adding to positions today?

  58. MrMiyagi

    Everything is oversold on the 5 minute charts, I expect it all to bounce a bit, not talking dollars but quick day-trade cents.

  59. Éamonn

    Haggerty, seems to me that the rising dollar is going to crush everything over the next few weeks. We are only on Day 3 of the new cycle. Stocks & commodities should be hit

  60. CMT

    Haggery, I jumped on DG’s EUO around noon at 17.15.

    Other than that, sitting tight on some SLV puts, FAZ (which I may sell today), SRS (which I may also sell today), and short qqq and spy.

  61. Poly

    Spin the wheel Haggerty, same odds.

    We’re already 42 points below the failed cycle point, our hands are now strong, where rallies become yawns.

  62. DG

    Good thought, Poly. I guess in the back of my mind I feel like by the time this leg is over people are going to think the euro is about to be dissolved, so I am banking on a mini-panic there. They’re unlikely to think that about the aussie ,but I like you’re thinking.

  63. DG

    CMT: good for you so far on EUO, but that’s a little close to where we are now so we may pull back to there (maybe). It’s better not to wait so perhaps you should have bought on the dollar swing low being established. No big deal here, but when the A wave start in late summer and Gary gives the call for GDX don’t wait. You want a quick profit so you can add and whether pullbacks. Waiting is not “conservative.” It actually sets you up for smaller profits and larger losses.

  67. hkc

    Gary:

    Thanks very much for your 25% recommendation on lightening up the model portfolio. It allows me to do a quick assessment as to what I should do for mine, and given that I had started with fairly little, I decided to stay put.

    Given the bear market, will you be trading the daily cycle? or just keep adding at rallies like DG and Poly recommended? I am waiting for the half cycle low (June 20-?)to either pull or add more. Would appreciate any advice from the experts.

    One lesson I learned from the SLV/AGQ parabola was NEVER TO CHASE!!! Especially now when the market is so volatile!

  71. DG

    William: Forgive me, but people are waiting too long! We have dropped six of the last seven days and oil is getting killed and NOW you ask about shorting oil? People need to come up with a plan when the market is not moving and then execute it. Otherwise you will spend your whole life shorting bottoms and buying tops. Gary talked about oil. I have posted I am short oil. Fubsy is short oil. Poly (I believe) is short oil. The markets have been getting killed. The only reason to short now is because someone can’t stand it going down anymore without him. That’s like chasing AGQ at 360. (William, this of course isn’t about you, but about many, here). This is the very most expensive common trading flaw: waiting for price confirmation so that entering the order is emotionally comfortable. Price confirmation came the moment the dollar swing low formed.

  72. Éamonn

    DG, I beg to make a point: we are pretty early yet (Day 3) in the dollar cycle so there should be time yet to short the commodities before the cycle falls to its low :o)

  74. William

    DG,

    I have been in DUG since 28, just wanted to get your input on when to add more being that the dollar just began rallying.

    Forgive me, im a new trader, like baby trader still. We all have to start somewhere.

  76. Billy

    To further DG’s comment about getting in early, I started adding EUO on June 6th, the first day that the dollar started showing some life within the timing band for the swing. I added 25% of my allocation to EUO, then on the the 7th when it dropped I added another 25%, trusting the cycles and feeling confident that we would get a swing soon. On the swing I added my remaining 50% so I was able to get my entire allocation into EUO before the USD crossed the 74 mark. I will sell as close to the top of this daily cycle as I can, and I will continue to use this strategy during this first intermediate cycle for the USD. On the next cycle I will go Old Turkey with a strategy to play the entire intermediate cycle.

  83. DG

    William: Great that you are in at 28. Adding is very different than initiating and a lot of people are now asking about shorting (which actually makes me nervous!) You have a great entry point—nice job. This is a reasonable place to add (around 30) Just don’t add more than 60% of your original stake so your average cost stays low. We may bounce but it’d be brief.

  85. jhnewman

    A Wacky Newman Prediction:

    [Mark this down. I’ll have you know I have a PERFECT record on these things! I’m 0 for 0. ;^) ]

    Today (or Monday) a Big Intermarket Pivot is being put into place.

    1. This will mark the high for the dollar bounce. This new daily cycle in the dollar will be extremely left translated, and will end somewhere in the high 60s about 6 or 7 weeks from now. The new intermediate cycle for the dollar which started in early May will also be extremely left translated and short, probably roughly 13 weeks long. It will look a lot like the intermediate cycle from August – November of last year. This final leg down in the dollar will put in the 3-year-cycle low. What we just had was a “4th wave up” bounce in a 5-wave down pattern that started in June of last year (best seen on a weekly chart).

    2. This final leg down in the dollar will propel gold to the top of its C-Wave. Gold will go over $1700 by the 3rd or 4th week of July, and then start its D-Wave down. Silver will be dragged up into a “rough double top”, somewhere in the $48 – 52 area. Miners will break to a new high.

    3. As a result of the dollar going down another leg, commodities will also go to a new high. Oil will be going up too.

    4. I haven’t been following the general stock market much at all, but I’ll GUESS that today or Monday will be the low of this correction. We’ve had an A-B-C correction starting in early May, that has priced in “unexpected” weakness in the U.S. economy and the end of QE2. This was the 4th wave down in a 5 waves up pattern that started last summer. From here, the stock market will go on to new highs as it puts in its 5th wave up (a summer rally). This will end sometime in the August – September timeframe. The market will then put in a bigger A-B-C correction, which will give the Fed the political cover to start QE3, which will send the market up again.

    If ANY of this comes true, nobody will be more astonished than me. And if any of this comes true, SOMEBODY here owes me a pizza (pepperoni!).

    All of this came to me in a flash last night, after I’d done my “research” in a martini pitcher. ;^) I’m starting my weekend early now — and going fishing.

    I wish everyone here good luck in your trading — and especially in life.

  86. 77

    summer doldrums
    zealc

    on the other hand, the bears on GLD SLV see the high downside volume today as the start of a week long move at least…and an end of the recent doldrums

  87. jhnewman

    P.S. If my martini pitcher has any “prognostication power” — today or Monday will be the daily cycle low for gold.

    And if it doesn’t have any prognostication power, well, you were forewarned. It was a martini pitcher!

    Gone fishin’!

  88. MrMiyagi

    So I’m trying to think like the masses here not the hedge/institutional buyers.
    I’m regular joe, bought silver/gold at 45$, averaged down at 38$, 35$, 33$, now I’m in deep, today it has gone down and I’m getting antsy.
    All weekend it’s going to eat me up so I’m at the verge of deciding that if, come Monday, it opens lower, I’m selling it all and hiding in a closet for a while. Multiply this by a few hundred thousand and you will have sellers unloading SLV/GLD/GDX by the bushel.

    That’s my take anyway, what the hell do I know?

  89. james r

    Any thoughts on what price the SP500 will begin its counter trend rally?

    I’m thinking about 1250; Where the cycle low was put in.

    James

  91. ...at ease

    mrmyagi, I think you are right, I would be wondering what happened with everyone saying Gold and Silver will be going higher? Get on and hang on. If I was a newbie, I would be saying, huh, everyone told me this stuff was going up.

  93. MrMiyagi

    I’ve tried to think like I would have a few years ago as a newbie smartass stock market dude. These days when I get the urge to buy something after seeing it fall or rise for a few days I step back and take a good look at MAs, BB, indicators that I had no idea existed before. I’m not right all the time but 80%-ish is pretty good. Still learning and this board here has some of the smartest and most helpful folks with great analysis and insight.
    I’m not Mr TA or anything but I can look at a candelstick chart with RSI, MACD and a few other indicators and decipher what the short term direction will be. This has taken me a long long time to learn and I’m nowhere near being the One To Turn To.
    Let’s put it this way, I knew jack shit about cycles or Fibbonacci before March of this year and just starting to understand those.

  94. EricH

    Gary,

    Good call on staying short.
    Left about 10-15 ES points on the table the past 2 days. I had an opportunity to get my position back at 1292 but past on it.

  95. William

    Maybe someone can help me out with this without flipping out on me and wanting to jump me (DG….lol)

    What determines when a cycle begins or ends?

    Thanks everyone.

  96. Éamonn

    MrMiyagi, I knew jack shit about cycles or Fibbonacci before March of this year and still don’t understand them. So you are a lot smarter than me :o)

  99. William

    Eric,

    I have been short on e-mini gold contracts for three days, do you have any idea how I felt watching gold rally? I felt like I wanted to cover at a loss just so I could stop grinding my teeth and so I could get some sleep. Lets hope we fall into this IC soon so we can both be happy. Good luck

  100. MrMiyagi

    William,
    If you area a subscriber, read the Terminology section, it gives more information about cycles than I can summarize here.

  101. Russell

    SLV lost 3.35% and closed at it’s low for the day. It will be interesting to see if anyone would look at that as anything but a sign to sell on Monday.As per Mr. Miyagi, I think it will be a difficult weekend for silver bears.

  102. EricH

    William,

    Take a look at GLD, that’s one bearish looking weekly chart. I’ll probably sit tight for 5-8 weeks. Gold have a lot of catching up to do on the downside. Let’s hope it starts next week.

    🙂

  104. William

    MR M,

    I did read the terminology section, I have to study it now. I guess I will get an answer to what determines when a cycle begins or ends there. I know there is a duration to each cycle, but want to know what to look for to know for sure that a cycle has begun or ended. Im assuming it has to do with swings?

  105. William

    Eric,

    I noticed on the weekly chart that gold’s intermediate declines bounce off the 30dma, so hopefully we will see that again so I have a good exit plan. We’ll see what happens.

  107. HumerUS

    Wm, see swing high, swing low, and cycles in terminology document if you are a subcriber. Also, there is a cycle count charts page. Maybe someone can tell you how Gary determines the cycle changes in terms that Gary will agree on. Candlesticks are used for starters. Then there are small and large cycles. The daily cycle is the smallest. Then yearly, intermediate, and big cycle. Gary talks most about daily cycle swings. So many daily cycles make an intermeidate cycle.

  111. William

    Humer,

    Thank you. I am a subscriber, and still have to study everything further. Everything you mentioned I am beginning to grasp, the one thing I dont understand yet is exactly how do we know when a cycle begins or ends.

  113. ddn3f

    William,

    You can only tell if a new cycle ended only after the fact.

    If you are in a timing band for a low and you get a swing low. You possibly could have the start of a new cycle. Then you can add a downward trend line break for confirmation. Gary also uses sentiment at the same time, which is a little more subjective. That helps add confirmation.

  114. HumerUS

    “I felt like I wanted to cover at a loss just so I could stop grinding my teeth and so I could get some sleep,” welcome to SMT Wm.

    Terminology doc says swings or cycle changes are based on exceeding the previous intraday high or low. So you have to understand candlesticks.

    To make it simple, the market goes up for 3-5 days, then goes down 3-5 days.

  116. ckpc

    William,
    It would be a good idea for you to take the time to read through Gary’s archives, especially the weekend reports. Also, read all the different links he has posted which explain the definitions of cycles, options, Bolinger Band crashes, etc.

    Doing this will answer a lot of your questions. People here are very helpful in providing answers to specific questions, but you can’t expect to get your education this way. You must put in some effort to answer your own questions. The information is all there, and you’ve got a weekend ahead of you, so dig in! It’s empowering!

  117. William

    So the beginning of Gold’s intermediate decline will be confirmed by a break of the daily cycle upward trendline and then a swing high below what level?

  118. William

    ckpc,

    Understood, and that goes without words. But when your new to all this sometimes you dont grasp certain things or see them clearly until someone puts it in simple terms or different words. I am a quick learner and no stranger to hard work…I go on two hours of sleep a night, I will hopefully be running right next to all of you amazing traders soon enough (two years…lol) I know it gets frustrating for some experienced traders to help those who are not yet experienced, but all of us had a beginning.

  119. Rick 4779

    William, that’s a great question. My understanding is that by using cycle theory, you can create an expectation of a coming cycle end, but you can not “know” when a cycle ends until after the fact.

    A swing high in a bull market marks the peak of the middle of a cycle and this peak can be either left or right translated (cycles are usually asymmetrical). The final swing low in the cycle will mark the end of one cycle and the beginning of another.

    Personally, I only “know” when a cycle begins or ends when Gary tells me it has.

  121. HumerUS

    Wm, I think you are catching on; but, that would be the DAILY cycle low. If you look at GOLD on the Cycle Count Charts page, you can see the INTERMEDIATE cycles marked by BLUE arrows. So, we are probably getting close to half way through the second daily cycle since the new intermediate cycle began in FEB. Since, it is practically certain to be a down daily cycle, a intermediate decline could be ushering in.

    Soon the cycle will reveal whether it is destine to be longer or shorter than average. This will suggest that the market will be advancing or declining faster or slower than average or faster or slower than the previous daily cycle(s).

    But, pimaCanyon says to determine the INTERMEDIATE cycle changes based on the weekly chart. He is the real cycle analysis expert, methinks.

  122. William

    Rick,

    “Personally, I only “know” when a cycle begins or ends when Gary tells me it has.”

    After having explained it so well, to follow up with the above!!

    LOLLL…now im really confused!

  126. 86d4life

    Just got the e-flyer from Tulving; $275 million silver sale extended through end of June. 99 cent over spot special. Earlier this week it was sealed and unsealed 500 oz mint boxs. Shortages vs. sales. Hhmmmm.

    Welcome back Vonda. I hope you brought your Zany along. 🙂

  127. William

    Humer,

    “So, we are probably getting close to half way through the second daily cycle since the new intermediate cycle began in FEB”

    Did you mean half way through the intermediate cycle, we have already gone through 2 daily cycles according to Gary’s red arrows?

  129. Rick 4779

    William, just some self-deprecating humor. But truthfully, while I do try to formulate my own interpretation of where the cycles are and where they might end, I do rely HEAVILY on the more experienced interpretations of Gary and some of the other wizards on this blog.

    It was very helpful for me to go back in time a couple of years on the charts and try to mark the Intermediate and Daily Cycles, and then compare them to Gary’s points. I am still working on that.

  130. HumerUS

    Wm, you’re right. I wasn’t measureing daily cycles from trough to trough (low to low) so, we are heading down to finsh the daily cycle. You have to look at gld on stockcharts.com to see how the current daily cycle panned out.

  140. jeff

    William
    One of the favorite sayings around hear is ” never short a bull market, the surprises are always on the upside “

    I know you are short minis so be careful

    Go back through the archives one year back and read read read.

    Scan through very far back in the bloggs, all the while searching for garys comments You will discover most of garys principles

  142. ...at ease

    Skeptic Squirrel,
    Best money you can spend, don’t waste your time on others, these two are the best I have found and I spent a lot of time and money looking and stopped looking after finding Gary and Doc.

  143. ...at ease

    Besides what I said above, there are a lot of great “folks” (LOL) on the blogs as well as excellent traders from all over. Can’t beat a winning combination!

  150. William

    “In the current environment of negative real interest rates worldwide and sick US & Euro economies, it’s inconceivable to us that Gold could slip much from the current $1,545/oz level.”

    -Gold stock analyst, John Doody

    When he says that gold will not slip much from the 1545 level, do you think he means like 1450ish, or more like 1500ish? I wonder.

  151. Hack

    Today went according to script. With the Dow below 12000 I will start deploying my cash judiciously into quality mega cap companies. Not rushing it though, this summer will offer many new and exciting opportunities to get back in the market cheap.

  153. Sleeper

    Hack,

    Do you think these current levels represent a bottom in the equities market already??

    Certainly, there will be buying opportunities down the road (Fall?), but I think that we still have a ways down to go before I go long in stocks. We need an IT low for starters.

  154. William

    Gary!

    In your June 7 report on the Gold chart you have an upward trendline drawn that you mentioned you were waiting for a break of as confirmation the cycle topped, and it sits below the second swing high without a penetration of the trendline. On the ThinkorSwim Platform the same trendline shows that it was already penetrated and then broken the next day.

    What chart should we follow, stockcharts or thinkorswim?

  159. Gary

    William,
    Don’t worry one little bit about asking questions. We were all beginners once and if someone hadn’t taken the time to explain things to us we would have stayed beginners.

  160. hkc

    Gary:

    Would appreciate if you could point out a few options in the weekend report for the model portfolio: when the cycle low is expected, buy more or sell for a better entry, as well as some alternative scenarios. Your analysis of the different possibilities is excellent, and much appreciated.

    Thanks very much for checking in so regularly even on vacation.

  161. Gary

    Options will no longer be a part of the model portfolio.

    If you understand options then you don’t need me to direct you. And if you don’t understand options then you have no business buying them.

  162. William

    Aklaunch,

    I thought this was the special education blog!

    Thats why your here am I wrong?

    Thanks Gary for being such a great teacher.

  164. hkc

    Gary:

    I did not mean options as to buy options, but as in the lay meaning of the word option, like different alternatives of the model portfolio, or different potential scenarios of the cycles playing out.

    I don’t know that I’ll ever get aggressive enough to get to the fancy ways of making money…

  165. Gary

    The only thing you will need to do is decide if you wish to invest heavier than the model portfolio but you won’t need to deviate from the basic portfolio to make money.

  167. Harry

    Gary, looking sharp!

    You’re scaring me with this ‘gold cycle rephasing’ talk. Things looked good for my gold puts on Friday but I will be downing a bit more baijiu (Chinese liquor) than usual until the weekend report comes out…

  171. sophia

    Hi DOC,

    I heard a lot of good things from subs here about your work. I was thinking of subscribing but looking into your free articles, it feels like you and Gary are one person… How can I be sure that it is not the case?

  172. autism

    Wm, it is actually a little more accurate to use the $GOLD chart. The only advantage to GLD is that you can see the candlesticks.

  173. hkc

    Sophia:

    I can guarantee you that DOC and Gary are not the same person. All the subs up both can tell you the same thing. Actually, DOC ‘s style is quite different than Gary’s, and actually complements Gary’s in many cases! That’s why many have said it’s worth it to sub to both.

  174. TommyD

    Gary,

    Is there an elevator inside the Matterhorn to take out-a-shape farts to the top? I’d like to plant my flag then go catch a massage from a European woman then eat some Mediterranean octopus…

    I’ve been taking care of personal stuff since late April and have not been that active in the markets nor sharing much here. I am still getting my feet wet with AA and learning to live my life differently.

    This next week I hope to re-establish positions either short or long ETF’s, whatever the general direction you foresee us going.

    After you return, I want to get back learning your cycles and strategies. If I don’t use or follow then my brain loses it.

    Have a great time with the remainder of the trip and with your fellow trackers.

  175. Rob L.

    sophia,

    I am a member of both services and I can assure you that they are in fact different people. 🙂

    BTW, paying an extra $200 a year is peanuts since I have made many multiples of that which is a direct result of being a member of both services.

  176. NJ

    Hi Gary:

    Would SH and QID be the best ETF’s to go long to play the Bear? I don’t intend to short now and am happy waiting for a rally or shorting the next confirmation – so wanted to learn.

    Also, since we are going long these ETF’s, would a stop below their respective cycle lows be a good strategy?

    Thanks and enjoy your vacation!

  177. Ms C.

    Sophia,

    Doc uses options frequently and has his “docfolio” which is not a model portfolio. No % and not real time.

  182. fubsy_cooter

    Regarding the discussion yesterday about when to short oil, dg made some excellent points. i want to add that I’ve been ardo using upper pivots or reversals to add
    to my positions.
    Currently watching the xle for a break-in below its neckline to add to dug. or needs to close below it.
    sorry about random words in this message. this auto fill on the Droid Ud driving me nuts.
    fc

  183. Éamonn

    fubsy_cooter, get an iPhone. I had a Nexus One and was not happy with it. Compared with iOS, Android is beta or even alpha software.
    Now, you said “Currently watching the xle for a break-in below its neckline to add to dug. or needs to close below it.” What do you mean by “or needs to close below it”? Thanks

  184. jeff

    Great report Gary

    Wasn’t scary as I thought and I’m on target

    Still contrary to mf global , but I’m going with you on this

  186. hkc

    Gary:

    Thanks very much for the weekend report, and for keep on working hard while you are on vacation.

    That said, I do have a favor to ask, if it’s not too much. I would appreciate very much if you could also extend the charts in “Cycle count” to match with the ones in the weekend report, and show where you might expect the upcoming cycle movements for each of the chart (in Cycle Count). That would allow us to see side by side the interplay between the daily cycles vs. intermediate cycles vs. yearly cycles of the major groups (stocks, dollar, gold, etc…)

    This is a request for whenever is convenient for you, if you decide to do it.

    Thanks again, very much.

  187. mfenton

    Hi Gary,

    I was hoping to get your thoughts on Silver. Could we be in a 5 wave pattern with Aug 24th being the start of 1st wave, Jan 28th being the start of the 3rd wave and ??? being the start of the 5th and final wave? This long term trend line has not been broken yet. I am currently short silver and have done nicely this year with silver yet conflicted with direction.

  188. hkc

    Poly:

    Whenever you feel like doing it, I would appreciate an interpretation of Gary’s weekend report with the high and low probability scenarios…

    Thanks much,

  189. hkc

    Alex:

    On your chart published on Th (?), would you reinterpret it as a test back to the trend line, and now a continuation down?

    Thanks,

  190. hkc

    Gary:

    For the charts in Cycle Count, if you are extending them and put in potential future cycle arrows, please put them all on the same time frame for comparison.

    Thanks much,

  192. gough

    Gary..(you can answer this when you return from your trip if you wish)
    1. As you point out, sentiment is extremely bearish. How is this market going to continue to drop, and break the March low with such bearish readings?

    2. What are the chances of the dollar correlating with the spx and rising with the S&P.

    Very respected e-wave guys, Caldero and PUG, and many bloggers in general are looking for a bottom around the 200sma, or a slight overshoot to end this correction, and then a rally to new highs. Maybe this is why we will continue down.

    Anyone, what side of the fence is TK on now?

  193. fubsy_cooter

    Ok, On my computer now. The Droid is a great phone, but the keyboard and auto-fill is confounding!! it keeps filling in words in spanish??!!! WTF?

    Anyway, I’m watching xle for a close below 72.79, which will signal an intermediate cycle failure in XLE. I suppose this will coincide a breakdown in the SnP.

    As we get closer, though, I’m becoming cautious of the neckline in the SnP as a possible point for a bounce into a right shoulder in a possible Head and Shoulders top on the general market. So, I’m playing the market as it unfolds and my plans have been shifting as price action dictates.

    fc

  194. daniele

    hkc,
    i think it’s not possible uptdate charts on usd index and gold, cause stockcharts has stopped his service on provide candlesticks charts on commodities ans usd index.

  197. hkc

    Daniele:

    May be just using the same charts in the weekend report, but put them on the same time frame and with the cycle counts for the Cycle count area?

  200. Éamonn

    fubsy_cooter, I would have thought oil and the S&P to be different animals, and that the key for watching the like of XLE would be the CL contract…?

  201. Gary

    The cycle count charts aren’t the place for guesses as to what is going to happen in the future.

    I’ve updated the charts to show current cycle lows and that’s all I will do with the cycle count link.

    This is only to be used to track cycle durations.

  202. Gary

    Jeff,
    1. As you point out, sentiment is extremely bearish. How is this market going to continue to drop, and break the March low with such bearish readings?

    2. What are the chances of the dollar correlating with the spx and rising with the S&P.

    Bear markets go down because the violent counter trend rallies cool sentiment.

    If we are in a bear market why would the market go up or the dollar go down other than as counter trend moves.

  203. wmp

    DG,

    I read your post yesterday about many being late to the party taking a short oil position by waiting for the right “entry”. Like Eamonn, I was a little confused too.

    I took a DUG position Thursday..the day $DXY produced the swing low. I was also following Doc’s comments about watching for /CL to break below the ascending trendline but took the position Thursday anyway as it appeared to be pivoting lower.

    Your comments are helpful..where SHOULD I have entered and what should I have been looking for?

    Thanks

  204. cklear

    It’s the time line that is fuzzy. With so much uncertainty, what is certain? QE type stimulus forever is a given per everyone.

    It’s the time line that is fuzzy. Since noone knows when the Fed will anounce is next round of easing, it’s everone’s best guess.

    Who is the best guesser? that is fuzzy.

  206. Felix

    Gary, thanks for working on your vacation here. I hope you are enjoying your time. Did you see how Swiss MP’s are confronting the Bilderbergers?

    May I please ask if you are re-tuning your thoughts on how dramatically silver will fall now, and also what you think of ZSL and why you yourself wouldn’t short silver, whether by ZSL or other method.

    Thank you!

  207. ALEX

    HKC

    Its crazy , but yes!( And I thought it was sharp of you to notice that , by the way)

    I had thought of that as a possibility even then(they break a channel and retest -its called a kiss goodbye), but I thought we were so oversold, that a bounce would be more than that 1 day-and get us back inside, then a crash.

    I had purchased EDZ and DRV ( these are 3x, so not recommended by me here).

  208. ALEX

    GARY

    Great report…I appreciate it, but also you are still away?? I really hope you are able to get out and enjoy as much as possible before time is up… that Was a good picture! Beautiful land around you.

  211. diana

    The picture of you by the mountain and the video of you lifting the weights don’t even look like the same person. Is that one of the other SMT posters with you? ;D

  216. Haggerty

    Gary
    I was looking back at 4 year cycle chart on the S&P in the terminology area. In there you note that the prior 4 year cycle ran from roughly 10/02–> 3/08. My question is how do you know 3/08 marked the end of that 4 year cycle and not the low made on 8/07. Either way coming out of each of those lows it shows an extreme left translated cycle. Thanks

  219. Moneyman

    Gary!

    Will you keep your shorts or sell some if we get down to 1240-1250?

    Or will you just keep them longer through this intermediate correction..

    Its hard to play the wiggles..

  220. Éamonn

    fubsy_cooter, ok, thank you. I bought some August 39 Puts on USO on Friday. I thought /CL broke its trend-line, but it actually didn’t. I hope I’m not too early

  221. wmp

    Fubsy,

    CL is Light Sweet Crude futures..Doc highlights it in his reports. The symbol on TOS is /CL. He was focusing on a break down through the ascending trend line as an entry

  224. Driver

    Gary,

    Thanks for producing a well-thought-out weekend report while on vacation! Your subscription fee is more than well worth it.

  225. Haggerty

    Gary
    What are the markers you look for?
    If I had to do this on my own there is no way I’d be able to spot it. Being the last one ran over 5 years, we can expect this to run short. Now that doesn’t mean that it has to make a lower low than the prior 4 year cycle right?

  226. elkinmartha

    New futures trader question,

    Besides putting stop losses on your trades and not overextending yourself, how does one protect oneself if say an atomic bomb hits and the dollar long futures contract drops in half and say interactive brokers computers are down, so your stop losses do not work? (if you had a million dollars on margin and you lose half) One of my friends mentioned possibly establishing an LLC and trading thru it. Any other ideas?

  228. Keys

    Okay way past by bedtime, but the wife and I had a good time out and I am settling in…

    Gary, great report….question if you get a chance…if not before your vaction ends, I will ask later.

    We are both on the same boat…so don’t read my remarks wrong…feel free to respond in your report or here, or whatever….you mentioned that a left translated IC here was a death mark to the bull. Why? Look it makes sense to me! Not asking for you to convinve me, already there, I am asking for your logic behind it.

    Either way…safe flight home when you get there! Getting home is always easier, couple red bulls to stay awake and an earlier night to bed, and you are good to go for the next day…

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