201 thoughts on “The Crew”

  1. Harry

    Gary, I always imagined you as a lot taller. You usually have a mountain or something in the background of your pictures so I guess it throws off the scale of things ;P

    Cheers to everyone who made it out there! Hope you’re enjoying the exchange rate… *muffled laughter*

  2. Wav_ridah

    Looks like a great time. I hope to make the trek one day but with 3 kids 4 and younger it’s a bit difficult. Enjoy guys, you all look great.

  5. Wav_ridah

    Gann,
    Check out the GLD daily. It looks like a break out to the downside of a rising wedge. The breakout appears to have occurred on Friday. I wish I could post a chart but my connections been down since Friday. The iphone is all I got. I would really appreciate your thoughts on it. I’m still new to TA so your input would be greatly appreciated.

  6. sophia

    Thanks to all for your answers about Doc. I will sign up today.
    Great pix Gary! It seems that you are all enjoying it despite the weather

  15. ALEX

    I agree-

    Thats a nice picture , and I feel like I may have even talked with some of you from here, but I have no idea who is who ( except Gary).

    So If anyone wants to say , “Hi, I’m ___ and I am ( ) people to the right of Gary” or something, That’d be cool.

    Rick, your comment cracked-me-up 🙂

  18. ...at ease

    Gary, Great weekend report! Sounds like we are well positioned to make money on this market downturn. Thanks for your work especially while on your vacation.
    Hope you have all have a safe return home.

  26. Gary

    From left to right.
    Lisa, Christian, Susan, Olga, Mike, Ben, Fergie, me, Don, Mickey, Maryann, Irv, Sanjiv, Phillip, & Andre

  31. Peter

    First time post here,

    Just started exploring the site and am a big fan. I have a general question from the gold side – do the members and Gary prefer investing in Physical vs. Paper/ETFs when investing in gold?

    Thanks

  33. Gary

    It depends on how emotional you are. You can get the same percentage returns with much smaller slippage and commissions by just purchasing SLV or GLD. However if you are one of those people who watches every tick in their account and are prone to sell at bottoms and buy tops then physical is the way to go.

    Physical will eliminate the emotions from your investment.

    At some point if it looks like we are going to hyper-inflate then we will all go to physical. But that’s several years down the road and not a consideration at the moment.

  34. Éamonn

    Gary, I hope you will signal well in advance when its time to go physical. I worry a little about that. I hope you are having a nice time in Switzerland. Looks like you have a nice group there :o)

  35. CMT

    Miyagisan, nice picture. I took me at least a minute to figure out which was Gary. LOL! Hope there are no pictures of me floating around from back then.

  36. Peter

    Thanks Gary,

    That confirmed my suspicions regarding the hyper-inflation fears which would (coincidentally?) coincide with your projected next C wave.

    Thanks again.

  40. Moneyman

    Is Gary the guy with the hair?

    If the strenght lies in the hair he must have been really strong..

    But my haircut was even worse than his..

  41. ...at ease

    Hello Lisa, Christian, Susan, Olga, Mike, Ben, Fergie, Don, Mickey, Maryann, Irv, Sanjiv, Phillip, and Andre.

    Nice to have some faces to go with the blog members names, I recognize; Fergie, Ben, Sanjiv.

    So happy for you all to meet and greet and spend time with the man.
    I know a lot of us would like to be there with you all.

    Thanks Gary for sharing your adventures! I hope for many more to come and an opportunity to attend 🙂

  42. Alex in Montana

    Shorting the S&P 500

    Gary’s weekend report: It won’t be an “easy” decline.

    Doc – Pointing out upside possibilty to be on safe side.

    Tim Knight – will cover shorts and go long on Monday morning weakness.

    Could be a concensus forming.

  44. Rosabarba

    Alex,

    I’m not sure a small sample of trading bloggers laying out the case for a possible bounce makes for a good contrarian sell signal. Oversold markets can certainly get more oversold, but I wonder if the risk/reward favors a new short here.

  46. hkc

    I think it was DG who said if I start counting gain, then it’s time to get out, so if I want to sell to keep my gain, then just stay in to be contrarian? Alex Mont, I have been toying about getting out too… Maybe at 1250 SnP?

  47. Silverhound

    Best wishes to all in Switzerland at the moment, that scenery looks amazing. Enjoy.

    Gary

    If you are around…. after the pullback in silver you mentioned you were of the opinion it was done for a couple of years but now we’ve had time to reflect I would pose the following scenario.

    The expected C wave blow-off top in gold didn’t occur because the hot money followed silver instead. As a result the severe regression to the mean D wave will likely be reflected more in silver than in gold as you have suggested several times and seeme reasonable. If the A wave is a reaction to the severe D wave pullback, is there a reason we can’t see this reaction reflected in silver instead of gold.

    IE: small D wave regression in gold / small A wave bounce in gold ; large D wave regression in silver / large A wave bounce in silver.

    I’d be interested in your opinion on this.

    Thanks

  50. PST

    Gary,
    It appears as though your point on Friday to avoid the financials because they were a protected sector was pretty timely. Just as selling in the financials was gaining momentum and the bank stocks were off over 2%, CNBC announced that the Fed was lowering the bank capital surcharge from 3% to 2.0-2.5%.

    Per ZH, “Nothing like the Criminal Reserve announcing at 2pm on Friday, just as the market was about to flush all stops to the bottom that the already laughable 3% capital charge buffer (initially expected to be 9%) required by Basel may be reduced even more…probably down to 2-2.5%. This number is woefully inadequate…but who the hell cares: must kick the can down the road one more day.”

    While the sector still finished lower on the day, I’ll likely close my position in FAZ on Monday since I don’t want exposure through the 3x ETFs. A better strategy will be to just target individual bank stocks that had large reserve releases in 2010 and 2011 (inflating earnings) , and will therefore need to re-reserve for larger loan losses as real estate rolls back over.

  51. PST

    Gary,
    I read the weekend report and follow your logic, but wanted to get your thoughts on another possible scenario. Every article on technical analysis that I read on Friday seems to expect the S&P to correct to the 1250 level and it doesn’t seem like buyers will be willing to step in until that point. Can you envision a scenario where we get a quick flush to that level early this week? If that does happen, what would you then expect to happen around the timing band for the half cycle low? Thanks

  54. Mighty

    Mr. Miyagi,

    Love the 80’s Gary!

    I think Gary has the last laugh here as he still has a great head of hair.
    Minus the perm, of course 🙂

  56. William

    Gary,

    Now thats a crew. I want in!

    Another thing, I have asked this question a couple of days ago but nobody seemed to have an answer, so im asking the boss now.

    I am beginning to grasp everything pertaining to cycles but still confused as to how do you know when a cycle has begun or ended. What candlesticks determine where you place your red and blue arrows on the cycle count charts?

    Gary, thanks alot for all your hard work even though you are on vacation, your amazing my friend.

  60. fubsy_cooter

    DEspite the long term trend likely being down, I will lighten my shorts early this week if we get significant weakness. Will likely unload my 2x inverse ETFs SDS and DUG, and will hang on to my SLV OCT 32 puts, which are only risking 1.5% of portfolio value.

    I suspect there will be a meaningful bounce soon, and will take advantage of that, if it manifests to reload short positions.

    bear markets are volatile events, when I acrue a decent profit, I take it and wait for the next oppty to drop in for another high odds low risk trade.

    f

  61. NJ

    Hi DG –

    Question for you – given our bias for a rising $$$, why are you choosing EUO over UUP?
    Does it matter going long one or the other? Pros and Cons of each?

    Many thanks!

  62. Michael

    Great chart Gann, thanks again. It will be interesting to see what silver does here… currently holding SLV puts…

    Nice call Fubsy…. I too covered my shorts on Friday afternoon (except SLV puts) … waiting for a new setup…

    Good luck trading this week all…

  64. jabalong

    Hi, just looking at the model portfolio and if the dollar has bottomed, wouldn’t it be a good time to at least be in something like UUP or an inverse ETF on another currency like the Euro? Thanks

  65. Aaron

    A nice little bounce (weak) in the snp to clear out oversold and sentiment readings.
    I hope we dont get any capitulation down days for a while. Id rather see a nice controlled sell off.
    Same for the Euro.
    Good stuff.

  66. DG

    NJ: being long EUO and UUP is somewhat similar as EUO is mostly against the dollar. My conviction is stronger that the euro will go down against all currencies, however. Remember too that EUO is also a 2X ETF.

  67. TommyD

    I am long TBT, at $32.88, now and feel good about all this talk about this showdown China vs. USA. Who will blink first – China revaluing her currency or USA defaulting on debt. I am in TBT to find out…

    GL to all and thanks for sharing the pictures, Gary.

    I hope someone shares their album with us…

    Tom

  68. Dan

    S&P futures in the green premarket this morning. Let’s see if this bounce is on light volume today. Still think we won’t bottom until we get a down day with the VIX spiking. We need some real fear to finish this thing off.

  80. Éamonn

    William, thanks. I’m not really a chart monkey to be honest. Guess if I can just know the price of the security I am pretty satisfied

  93. Shalom Bernanke

    Not to mention the 50 MA is getting ready to cross the 200 on the downside.

    Not adding to these trades, and keeping total portfolio risk at 1% so I don’t have to be glued to the screen while getting capped.

  95. Shalom Bernanke

    TommyD,

    I’ve been great and enjoying some free time.

    No, I’m not yet short bonds. When I do it’ll be with futures as they’re very liquid and I hate being long leveraged etfs, especially after we saw people be correct and still lose money on silver with the ZSL.

  99. fubsy_cooter

    @ Dan 6:18

    In total agreement. I sense a good flush coming on high volume for a short term reversal of a week or two to first sucker in new shorts and give smart money a chance to unload shorts and reposition long for a rally, then when shorts are scared and sentiment becomes more positive again, we begin our next leg down.

    As stated above, I’ll be covering my small short exposure into a drop. My best guess is we have a day that starts like today and weakens into the close (maybe today), followed by a gap down open. The gap down is my cue to get covered, and wait for the next oppty to short.

    f

  103. William

    Fubsy,

    At what level do you think we will see a bounce, I assume you will be looking to cover your shorts around there?

    Thanks

  104. Dan

    Golds multi-month uptrend line is currently sitting at around 1520 so if we break that level, it will be the final nail in the coffin that PMs are in big trouble.

  105. Poly

    Ride the primary trend!

    Markets are clearly in serious distress and its happening under the covers at an alarming rate.

    That crowd by the exit is starting to get rowdy…sure the rest are starting to hear it now?

  106. DG

    Oil and EUO are the place to be, IMO, and will be for the entire bear leg. Nice they are taking turns (oil down big today, and the euro Friday). I agree with Fubsy that a gap down will lead to a bounce, but be careful not to loose your strong-hand status by over trading. You don’t want to miss the next 1,000 points down. If you are not an especially disciplined trader just let the rally come and go and add to your shorts.

  110. MrMiyagi

    I was reading through Kitco’s forums last night, a few threads were mentioning how silver auctions on ebay were slow, some not even catching bids until the last minute. Not the frenzied crazyness like there was in late April where a Maple ounce was selling for 60$.

  117. Christian

    Switzerland was great and we met many very interesting people. Sad though, that someone snitched my wifes camera on the trainride back to Zürich. And the worst was that the camera had pics from months back 🙁

    Guess how glad my wife was when I came home?

  119. Ryan

    Been watching EUO for awhile and definitely couldn’t pull the trigger on fri. I’m guessing now would be a good time to jump in?

  122. Christian

    Interesting move in the market now. Will this be the real daily cycle low, or was it the 2/6 adn we now have a failed daily cycle. I better just stay out of PM for a while and keep to short SP500 and dollar long.

    Would be nice with some PM rally now, that I could short with options, but think I hope for too much. But who know, maybee my patience pays off.

  126. Poly

    Gold should find it’s low next few days at around $1,500, but only for 3-7 days as the next cycle fails. Miners look to be WAY ahead of the decline, which to me suggests the next failed daily will be a slippery ride down the $1,400 pole for gold.

  127. William

    Poly,

    What determines whether or not a cycle fails? Being we are 7 days into this cycle, when you say “but only for 3-7 days as the next cycle fails” are you saying this cycle will only be 10-14 days?

    Thanks for your help.

  131. n1tro

    the selloff on metals and s&p seem to be on time right at 1pm again. and 1hr later back up (especially s&p). no conspiracy?!

  132. Poly

    William

    Sorry, I was not clear. I don’t consider the recent trend break, if you call it that, a cycle low for gold.
    I’m working off of May 5th as the last cycle low. We’re still in the timing band where a more orthodox cycle low should be waited for.
    Once a cycle low is clearly printed, it will be violated THAT low that will constitute the cycle failure.

  135. William

    Poly,

    I cant see how 6/2 constitutes a low either, what am I missing?

    It cant be because of a break of the trendline, that trendline was broke already on 5/17 if that were the case.

  137. Dan

    Seeing some relative strength in the PM stocks now. Doesn’t necessarily mean we will bounce ASAP but if it holds up it will indicate we maybe due for a short term bounce.

    Also not sure if anyone noticed but VIX is positive even though markets are up so fear is starting to build.

  142. Poly

    “So were 27 days into this cycle then if we look at it that way (may 5th low), correct?”

    William, that sounds correct.

    Remember though, it’s somewhat irrelevant as the dominant and more important IT cycle low is looming large. Both daily cycle interpretations both end with a nice move down in the very near future.

  145. Ryan

    DG,
    I finally have skin in the game with EUO. I bought a chunk earlier this morning and will add another chunk if it pulls back more. Just wondering if you have a stop in mind for EUO? For the others that also bought EUO, any mental stops?

  147. niven

    Gann,

    I been enjoying your daily charts and appreciate it that you share it w/ everyone. Would you recommend any books for scalp trading? How do you know which tools to use for your trades. Would be interested in learning more. Thanks

  148. MrMiyagi

    Closing here at these levels, I would expect at least a morning pop for both GLD and SLV unless the overnight market is lower.

  149. Gann360

    Niven

    the system i use for Scalping is a mixture of Gann and eastern. western TA,,, i count Candles/ i use Moving Averages/ Trendlines , and many other tools,,,

    i made lots and Lost lots of money , to arrive where i am at today…i am not ! the Cowboy i was years ago… Today i take High Probability Trades ,,

    my friends ask me all the time, if i could teach them, i tell them stay with what you know…this Arena will eat you alive…

    As far as tools, there is no ,,,1 Tool to use,,,it’s a marriage of many.

  154. Haggerty

    If GLD closes below 147.93 it will break a 5 and a half month trend line. I tried to post the chart but too much of a meathead to figure it out. There was a break of that line on 5/17 but GLD rallied to close well above that line.

    Anybody use freestockcharts.com. maybe you ca walk me through how to post it?

  155. Dan

    S&P green on light volume while the PMs down on big volume. Seems this isn’t the bottom based on volume.

  156. MrMiyagi

    As I ranted on Friday, maybe the little guy holdong GLD SLV sees no end to the drop now. Volume is about 30% more on SLV than on Friday, perhaps the exit gates will be open more tomorrow.

  158. niven

    Gann,

    Thanks.. Now I know why your name is Gann lol.. I did a search on youtube and found the gann methodology quite interesting..I hope silver breaks below that trendline soon.

  159. William

    Haggerty,

    If you draw a trendline from the last intermediate cycle low on 1/28you see that gold bounced right off that trendline on 3/15, 5/5, 5/17 and broke below it today.

  160. Poly

    Miyagi,

    Volume comparisons on SLV are pointless now, IMO.
    Firstly, the averages have been badly skewed by the parabola and subsequent collapse. Volume on this baby will continue to decline all the way to the IT low as the remaining hopefuls clinging to the fantasy of an immediate retest off all time high’s start capitulating. Interest is quickly disappearing.

  162. MrMiyagi

    Poly,
    I realize that and I take that into accound however skewed it may be.
    Still, as you said, interest is waning but there are still holders that probably will dump at a point and give up.

  164. Haggerty

    William
    Very similiar to the chart I was looking at. I had it only breaking on 5/17 and today. But today we closed below, so hopefully this continues.

  168. William

    Haggerty,

    If you draw a trendline like I said from the 1/28 bottom, you’ll see that it acted as support today also. Its possible that we get another bounce off it (I hope not),today was the third bounce off it.

  172. Ryan

    DG,
    Thanks for the update, I never did have a position in EUO so I started mine today. So if I want to add, you recommend only adding in strength and not a pullback?

  175. Haggerty

    William
    Believe it or not my trend line was from 1/27 and those are the only breaks I have are one 5/17 and today. 5/17 finished above but today closed below.

  176. DG

    Ryan. It’s a tough choice. I tend to like to add on strength because the market’s behavior is doing what I think it “should”.” This raises your average cost, though. Buying on weakness means better prices but if you buy on the way down you can buy and buy…and then get killed if you are wrong. It is generally better to add on strength, but not more than 50% of your original stake. that is if you buy 500 of something, add 200 on strength. Then if it keeps going up, you can add on a pullback to support, when it gets to oversold, etc. Just don’t get excited and add a lot on a run up. You will need to develop your own way, but whatever you do learn from your errors and analyze what went wrong. For myself I was so confident in the EUO play that I added as it dropped—just nothing excessive. Now I need to see more strength to be convinced this dip is just that—a dip.

  178. fubsy_cooter

    @ Tommy and WIlliam,

    Sorry I didn’t respond sooner. I’ve been writing reports all day.

    i’m looking to cover into a downward swoon. Today was farily neutral in the S&P. So, I remain short. It seems that shorts are pretty nervous as a group, that suggests to me there is more room to fall. Also, we’re just heading into the middle range of the daily cycle, meaning if we do bounce it should roll over before too long and head into the DCL, especially given the left translated nature of this cycle.

    So, I feel ok holdoing shorts here. I surely won’t be adding now though. Any decent downdraft and I’ll be back in cash and wating for a bounce to reverse in order to reenter.

    f

  180. jabalong

    Gary having beeing over in Switzerland or anyone else have a view on what the Swiss Franc is likely to do over the next few months?

    Maybe early days yet, but doesn’t seem to be showing signs of weakness despite gold topping and the dollar bottoming.

  182. NJ

    Hi Gary:

    Based on today’s action in Gold, looks like we may have seen the intermediate peak 5-6 weeks back. Does this now qualify as a LT or RT intermediate cycle?

    Also, if a LT intermediate, what are the implications going forward for the A wave, if any?

    Thanks!

  183. Le Fou

    Welcome Home, Gary!

    I wondered what you were going to do there if you couldn’t climb the Matterhorn. Must have been the hunger for a burrito that clinched the deal, no?

    You did an admirable job keeping up the blog and the reports, but you were missed.

    Le Fou

  187. sophia

    Gary,

    You are truely amazing! You just flew back half round the world and the first thing you do is write the newsletter!!!
    Thanks for being such a great person!

  188. William

    Gary,

    Welcome home. Your dedication is overwhelming, I am grateful to have you as a guide. Its amazing how much I have learned from you already, your an inspiration in many ways.

  192. ...at ease

    Gary,
    Will the shorted stocks cycle back down again? I am just wondering why you recommend selling shorts at a a loss instead when they are profitable status.

  193. Gary

    From where I shorted the trade was very profitable. If you hesitated on the entry then you will have to figure out what you want to do with the trade.

  194. ...at ease

    Gary,
    Following the model porftolio, my profits have dropped significan’ty from yesterdays profits, not much more than to cover broker fees.

    To clarify, do you believe the Model portfolio will possibly cycle back down and gain back the profits we held as of yesterday?

  195. Gary

    We entered shorts at 1311 the market is at 1285. How can you be down?

    You could also wait a bit and see if the bears try to take it down sometime today. Of course you also risk it going higher.

  196. ...at ease

    Gary,
    From the profits I held, I am way down opening today. As I said, I have profits, however not enough to make these trades just to cover broker fees.
    I didn’t want to see into the open and will chance it will cycle down into the day. Thanks

  200. Gary

    The model portfolio doesn’t have any puts. You are on your own on that one.

    But I don’t think the intermediate cycle is anywhere near the bottom yet for gold. Minimum of another month maybe two.

  201. ...at ease

    Thanks, I bought SLV GLD puts prior to the model portfolio was implemented. Still hanging on as they are just bringing funds back in and I have time on my side then. Loss was already taken. 🙂
    Thanks.

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