TOURNAMENT

The tournament this weekend was a big success. Two of our lifters made it onto the winners platform. Our lightweight took the bronze medal and our superheavyweight took the gold.


Considering this was their first national championship that was some pretty strong lifting.

376 thoughts on “TOURNAMENT”

  9. Éamonn

    Gary, could you comment on the action here in gold? Where do you see it falling back to when a debt raise is announced? Thank you for your thoughts/opinion

  10. Less is more...

    Does anyone know what is the different between GLD vs PHYS?

    Mr. Shalom Bernanke spoke highly of PHYS. Was he talking about owning actual physical metalS or the etf PHYS (Sprott Physical Gold Trust)? I notice the past two days, it has been lagging vs GLD.

  11. Le Fou

    Miyagisan,

    I don’t find winning and losing irrelevant. Good character includes the ability to lose gracefully, and perhaps more importantly, win gracefully.

    Best,
    Le Fou

  12. MrMiyagi

    Le Fou,
    Good point, well taken.

    I played soccer in my teens for many many years as a netminder, we won every year, I had tons of shutouts but what I remember and care about most is the friendships and fair play on our part.

  13. DG

    Great work Gary. Must be very satisfying. Now you can put your feet up and watch gold rally.

    Though I must say, you don’t seem like the ‘feet up” type 🙂

  14. Le Fou

    Gary,

    Congratulations to all those who put themselves on the line. What were the age ranges of your lifters?

    Best,
    Le Fou

  20. Movax

    DG..
    How accurate are your shorts? (Asking about UNG) It looks to me like natgas can go more, but you’ve got me thinking..
    What’s the time line for you to stay short?

  21. KAL

    Miyagi I played soccer, too. I was a goalie, not a netminder. Haha. One day, perhaps when I catch a fly with a chopstick, I will speak of the day I was beaten 15-1. 53 shots on goal. We weren’t very good and we played private high schools. Unwise.

  23. Ryan

    For those that are in DGP, any concerns about the EU bank stress tests and DGP being a ETN vs a ETF? I asked on the other post regarding the lagging of DGP vs UGL, any comments?

  26. DG

    Movax: Quite accurate (though I haven’t tested them). They work better on some ETF’s than others, and UNG is a good one. It is a short-term signal and has already resulted in a 1% drop the past few hours, which is all that’s “required.” It has no bearing on whether UNG winds up at 13 next month. For myself, I enter the trade and then when i get the head start I enter a break even stop and go for more. I usually cover when I get a tape clue (reversal, big volume decline, etc.)

  27. Gann360

    Gary Hats Off to You

    Man i dont know how you do it.

    I started doing weights at the age of 12/13 .and always had a Good size Going…

    But today .my body can’t handle the same weight ( not even close )i’m full of Aches and Pains in my Shoulders and lower Back, Even my Damn Right Knee Hurts.lol

    I am mostly doing Series of Pull ups ( set of 150/200 )and Push ups(150/200) today .which helps me stay in Shape.. And i’m 44

    To see you Competing with Kids , and Winning is Amazing…God Bless You, Man

  29. William Wallace

    DG,

    How much determines if you have a head start on a trade, Im assuming you dont put a stop break even when your 10 cents ahead, or do you?

    And what if the trade turns south immediately, how far below do you place your stop if there is no chance to place it at break even obviously?

  32. ftw?

    WW, that’s the part you do on your own. GL

    In other words, you have to look at the charts and figure everything out for yourself. In other words do do your due dillagence.

    If it is just something out of the clear blue like short natural gas on July 18, then take it with a grain of salt. Look it over for sure, but do not expect any miracle working.

    If everyone starts talking that we are going to get energy weakness, then DG might come along on Aug. 18 with the same thing. That might align with a short into an intermediate cycle failure. You might want a safe bet to mesh with your sexier trades, that mainly just keeps you away from a lot of U.S. dollar toxicity.

    DG trades are normally haphazard and do not lead toward an intermediate trend, but sometimes they get on the bandwagon.

  35. DG

    William: Good questions. I do not count 10¢ as a head start but have no particular predetermined amount. I do not trade in a rule-like way. My “toy” trades (as opposed to when I have a strong fundamental opinion like EUO or gold right now) seek to get a good entry point. If I believe the intermediate trend is on my side I will let them run. My general attitude is that if I can get a head start on most of my trades, I can figure out the rest. It’s a happy problem! Knowing when to cover (or sell on the buys) is always hard. Gary waited a little too long on silver and that hurt. Next time he will be way early and watch gold rally much higher without him. There is no “best” way to do this. You can choose an entry when you get the setup you want, but closing a position forces you to make a decision every minute you are in the trade. The asymmetry of it all cannot bee beaten. I have been tape-watching for decades and can often tell when something is about to turn—and too often (in my mind at least) turn out to be wrong.. Tough game.

  42. William Wallace

    DG,

    I hear you 100%. I use time and sales side by side with charts to exit trades. I get a feeling of which way things are going using time and sales and try to confirm it with charting.

  45. kmisak

    William Wallace, you asked whether Gary holds or sells through daily cycle corrections. Gary would suggest you hold through the upcoming d.c. correction. Gary tries to get subscribers to avoid intermediate cycle corrections only.

    Personally, I loaded up in the days after Gary’s call (was camping in northern Ontario when the call first came), and will hold Old Turkey now, only adding what little I have left in cash when the next daily cycle correction comes.

    I am trying to learn to trade less often!

  46. Robert Thrane

    I thought they are acts of God, and like a lamp will fall over for DG, and the pieces will spell out stock symbols. No? LOL,

    No, I think he’s had created for himself a program of his algorithms.

    Find a programmer WW, and put your mind into equations.

  48. ftw?

    A rabbi, a priest, and a nun walk into a bar. The bar keep remarks, “Have you seen the parablic sar on the ultra short yen ETF yet”?

    “Yeah, really warped,” moaned the rabbi.

    “What was wrong with the established short on the Euro,” wondered the priest outloud?

    “He likes to deviate,” responded the nun.

  49. Chris

    Gary, silver has been on a tear lately. I know you think it’s a broken parabola, and I agree with you… but the current run is just getting very tempting to start considering a small short position. Perhaps a bit speculative, but I really think silver is going to tank soon. Thoughts?

  51. The Angry Hippie

    I tried to trade the daily cycle during silvers run up after the Japan event. Found Gary in early March and bought at AGQ 180 or so, my first PM trade. Sold at 280 or so trying to get cute/greedy and avoid the ‘scary’ correction I heard people talking about. It never came, watched AGQ run to 380 in what seemed like a blink. Bought it somewhere up there in the stratosphere on a Wednesday, made good money on Thursday,gave it back Friday thought about selling before the weekend but I held on. And we all know what Monday morning looked like. I remember looking up forexpros.com on Sunday night while talking to my wife. She saw me turn white, then green. Rode it down to low 200’s. Gave back everything and then some but learned a helluva lesson, one I had been warned about by Gary and the more experienced traders on this forum.

    Don’t give up the strong hand.

  54. DG

    William: As a member of stockcharts I have programmed a screen with my set of variables. It scans all listed securities. The ones that fit my criteria show up on a page when I hit “Run Scan.” There are often a few, some of which are flaky, some of which trade to little, and some of which don’t generally behave like they should. I dig deeper into the ones that are more orderly (like FXE, UNG, SPY, etc.). It works much better with ETF’s than individual stocks. If I get a ton of ETF’s on my sell screen it’s a good overall market tell. The last three times this happened were 2/28; 4/28; 7/6—all good times to sell or sell short.

  57. Jenny

    A couple of weeks ago during one of our discussions about options I came across a colored spread sheet which showed how the option price changed over time. Since I cannot find it now, I wonder if it rings a bell for anyone who might have a link. Thanks, if you can post it!!!

  59. ftw?

    MM, $SPX break under 20 dma probably means the correction of the V-shaped recovery is destined to fall to the next fib level or whereever. 20/50 crossover seems iminant, but you did not ask that.

    Remember when the karate kid caught the fly with the chopsticks, and says, “Hey, I did it. I did it. I caught it.” Not one of your highlights!!

  60. MrMiyagi

    ftw?
    Thanks for the info.
    I liked it when I suckered Daniel-san into waxing all my cars that I sold at an auction later. That’s a good highlight.

  61. Gann360

    Mr M

    Remember the 7 Count Rule.It’s the 7th day the SPX Has fallin,( buts it not the golden rule )To a 61.8% Fib Hit,if it leaves any kind of Bottoming tail, it could still be part of a Bottoming Process.I would prefer to see it ,Reverse and Regain the 20 sma.i have no Position on the SPX. But a Gap up could still happen and catch Bears sleeping.

    Goodluck

  63. ftw?

    AH, selling at 280 was the right move is the moral to the story. If you prefer your sanity, that is. Any last shread of sanity.

  66. MarkMarin

    Someone asked about rare coins on the last thread. If you are looking to buy $20 gold coins in mint state 65 (MS-65), then buy the $20 Gold Eagle, as it is much rarer and more valuable than the St. Gaudens, although not as beautiful. And, make sure it is graded by PCGS. If you are wondering about pricing, you can always check Heritage Auctions. Good luck!

  68. William Wallace

    DG,

    You know im very grateful for you sharing that with me, maybe one day I will try and tackle that myself on Stockcharts…when I have a few years under my belt like you. As of now I would have no clue what criteria to input.
    Thanks again my friend.

  73. TZ(8155)

    There are 23,210 (23 THOUSAND!) gold futures call options at $1600 (expiring next tues afternoon) with a notational value of $3.7 BILLION!

    I’ve never seen numbers that high.

    I don’t know where gold goes in the next few days, but it is VERY likely we are at or below $1600 early next week.

    If we aren’t and gold runs higher through that block of options (unlikely as always, but never impossible), then it will be one heck of a move to behold.

  74. TZ(8155)

    Personally, I’m long 4x gold futures from about 1550 and holding. I’m looking for an entry to add like everybody else which I expect it in the next week or so (but to/at what level I don’t know).

    My guess is that 1550 will not be reached again and any pullback stops no lower than 1570 or so.

  76. TZ(8155)

    Note that Aug is a large gold contract delivery month as well (one of the reasons the call options are so high) and thus the guys in charge will want to drive gold down next week for both options expiration AND for the start of Aug delivery process.

    Some strong attacks next week or near the end of this week are in the cards. The momentum today, tomorrow, and maybe wed will help to draw in some remaining weak hands to crush.

    Woe to anybody buying the 10th, 11th or 12th straight up day in gold here.

  77. Gann360

    You guys remember this Gann Fan Chart: i did this chart Weeks ago,anyways we are about to Get a Criss Cross Fan Hit on the 20 th (Give or Take )

    at first i thought it was going to be a High, for both PM & SPX,,,Today i’m thinking We will still get a Pivot.But ,Maybe we get a High (short Term in PM) and a Low on the SPX.

    Exciting Times Here.Lets see if this Chart Calls a Pivot

    http://screencast.com/t/sZjAjIa6s

  79. DG

    Russell: DGP is on my sell screen…but it got there first at 49.50! Think of the screen as super-extreme overbought. In hysterical up moves that can go on for a while. It’s why I like some other clue OR a reason to believe there is no reason for the crazy rally. Then I’ll short the item. The fundamentals on gold are so strong, and the likelihood of higher highs is so great, I have not sold a share. I hope we pull back because I would just by more. So…yes, it’s on my sell screen, butt also…so what? I am not going to sell some to avoid a 2% two day dip and then get caught light for possible fireworks.

  80. Jenny

    Éamonn,

    In particular I’m looking at GLD call 151 10-11 1 contract.This calculator does not recognizd an Oct contract.

    But in general I was fascinated by that color spread sheet and would love to have it in my arsonal!

  82. Sleeper

    I am trying to figure out the SOS and BOW numbers and how they are generated. Any help appreciated. What site can that data be found on? I had heard we had some SOS in GLD today.

    Thanks all.

  84. Sleeper

    FTW,
    So, bout damn time we got some SOS in gold. I need a DCL to fill up on! 😉

    What I want to know is technically how those numbers are generated for my own education.

  85. Clarkatroid

    robert, my poker enthusiasm has been smashed to pieces with the recent shut down on full tilt, i lost 65k. well its frozen in cyberspace somewhere and i dont hold much hope for it.

  86. Clarkatroid

    “Anyone else own collectable coins? The pre-1933 Saint Gaudens graded MS-65 are extremely cheap,trading at their lowest premium to melt value ever. Beautiful, too.”

    i have 3 of these, very very nice coins, paid £980 each a couple days ago. gl

  88. Robert

    Remember people that expiration are next week and 90% of the time the metals are temporarily taken down–last month gold fell all the way to 1480’s
    From
    Jesse’s Cafe a very good blog “
    Gold and Silver have risen quickly to a very important resistance level. I do not yet consider this an achieved breakout.

    There are strong cross currents in these markets, the global sovereign debt situation in Europe, and the less remarked situation in the domestic US, highlighted but not captured mostly by the debt ceiling debate which is more of a showpiece than a serious change and prioritization.

    I suspect that if the US comes to a resolution of its troubles, for a few days at least, the markets will rally, and the metals and perhaps Treasuries will be beaten like rented mules.

    However, the looming crisis in Europe, which has the banks salivating for cheap national assets, is going to continue to weigh on markets by posing systemic risk in the manner of Lehman Brothers.

    And as a reminder, the August Comex Options Expiration is next week

  93. Russell

    DG,
    Thanks for your thoughts re DGP and technical sell signal. I’m trying to trade the IT cycle, but I can’t help but try to time the daily and watch the technical signals. Since we’re week 3 of a 20+ week IT cycle, I’m trying to stay old turkey. As my ability to time stinks, and there seems to be literally a whole world that is worried about currency debasement, I will try not to get too cute with buying and selling.

  94. Robert Thrane

    Claratoid,

    Very sorry to hear that. You should join the class action lawsuit if you’re not already part of it. If not, let me know and I can post a link with more information. I know it names a few of the obscure owners as defendants, as well as many of the sponsored players, included Phil Ivey who supposedly owned a 5% state in FT.

    Can this be a tax write off?

    I still think the game has many strong years ahead. There is already talk of new poker bills which will bring on some type of new platform to the US market.

    I really think FT and PS, although they did illegal things, are just getting pushed out of the market for someone else to start raking it all in.

    Wish you well brother.

  95. Robert

    Gary,
    the gap down in silver that Monday morning was a prime example of manipulation by the Fed and their banks==plain and simple

  96. Poly

    7/26 (options expiry) is a very plausible day count for a daily cycle top.

    During the blow off Jan 2008 run, we had a massive candle on 1/22/08, it marked the DCL. It was a frightening $50 drop after what had been a 20 trading day $100 move higher. (Don’t forget we’re talking much bigger % moves being 2008) Something similar today would be an intra-day $80 swing. (Hat tip DG for suggesting the possibility)

    BTW the candle on GDX was $49.50 high, $44.85, a monster $4.65 swing. Trade the bull, prepare for the outcomes.

    We get another such candle it will guarantee a massive puke. Be prepared to run head first into the depths of the decline and buy it up that same day. In the example, 5 days later gold was up $95 from the low of that day. GDX was $52!

    This next 5-7 days should provide clues on what to expect out of the coming DCL.

  98. Gary

    Robert,
    Increasing the margin requirements was a prime example of the exchange trying to protect itself from an asset that was trading on pure emotion, terribly stretched above the 200 day moving average, and at great risk of a volatile correction.

    Just because something doesn’t behave like you want it to isn’t confirmation of manipulation.

    The fact is that silver was in a massive parabolic run. Those are not sustainable. That parabola was going to collapse whether margin requirements were raised or not. There was no way silver was gonna get through $50 on the first try.

    Yes raising the margin requirement probably constricted the correction down to five days instead of five weeks but it was still going to happen either way.

    Silver was in a runaway move and runaway moves usually end in a crash.

    As much as you would like to believe that there is an evil cartel out there trying to prevent you from making money, it simply isn’t true. If it was, the price of silver would’ve been capped at $25 long before it ever had a chance to reach 50.

  99. basil

    Gotta love silver here. I won’t add, but sit comfortably on my AGQ and SLV. In the mid thirties silver offered a low risk entry; above 40 however the risk is, of course, growing in leaps; yet I continue to believe that if silver won’t knock out 50 this year, it’d be a bad omen for the silver bull in general. My biggest position is in DGP, followed by AGQ. I am also holding some nano cap silver miners, but only humble positions. And still holding some DAG, CORN, and AGRO. Still believe that the dollar will continue to be trading sideways for the time being without resolving to upside or downside before late September. Late September will be the game changer then, possibly with a thrust down in the dollar and a blow out top in gold, before a dollar turn around, accompanied by a sharp correction in PMs.

  100. Le Fou

    Robert,

    I agree that Jesse’s Cafe is a good blog, but he publishes misinformation here:

    “And as a reminder, the August Comex Options Expiration is next week”

    You and I won’t be fooled, but some less experienced posters might.

    Best,
    Le Fou

  101. Alex in Montana

    Gary,

    I looked at the Senior National Results and the 77kg and 85 kg Men class winners beat out the top three weight classes: 94, 105 and 105+ kg.

    Is that correct and why? Seems weird.

    Anyway glad your team members did well.

  102. Chris

    >> In the mid thirties silver offered a low risk entry

    Sorry, Oxymoron if I ever heard one. The only reason you believe (in retrospect) that silver was low risk in the mid-$30’s is that it happened to work out for you so far. Silver is the most volatile trading instrument out there second only to penny stocks. Rationalize short term gains all you want, but it’s EXTREMELY risky to try to guess this one.

    I for one am with Gary, broken parabolas do not behave like the current silver bulls want to think they do. We’re headed for an impending massive silver correction. This is just the market’s way of getting the bulls back into the trade before the floor falls out yet again.

  103. Gary

    Alex,
    Chad Vaughn and Kendrick Ferris are both phenomenal lifters. They are by far the two best lifters in the country.

  105. Alex in Montana

    Le Fou,

    Jesse is correct. I checked the COMEX gold option expiration dates:

    The August series expires Tuesday the 26th of July.

    The September series expires August 25th.

    Other expirations

    Oct series is Sept 27
    Nov series is Oct 26
    Dec series is Nov 22

    FYI

  107. Éamonn

    I am wondering, can psychology & the will to lift the weight give you “extra strength”, or is it in reality purely deterministic on your physical make-up?

  109. Alex in Montana

    Eamonn,

    I won the Armed Forces Europe championship back in 1969, qualified for the National Collegiate Championships in 1973 and placed 4th at the National Masters in 1987 at 40 in my age group.

    At 64 I am little past my prime.

    My totals were way less than Gary’s. I still lift though, just no comps any more.

  113. Robert

    Le Fou,

    He does have a great blog but he is correct about expirations –h–expirations are next week on the 26th–the cartel will try its usual attack on the metals,just like they have for almost every one

  119. MrMiyagi

    My concer now is that the debt ceiling might be “resolved” without warning anytime before the deadline sending PMs and associated equities/ETF majorly downwards.

  123. Russell

    Zerohedge noted that comex has not reversed any of it’s increased margin requirements for silver despite it’s plunge from 50 to 32. Why would they need to further hike margins during this move?

  124. jlinks

    I haven’t posted in quite a while but had to jump in after seeing that Gary is repeating the same mistake that’s been floating around here for a while.

    In tonights report Gary states that raising the debt ceiling would mean more money printing.

    Not at all.

    Raising the debt ceiling means that the treasury can sell more bonds. Those bonds are sold to the public who trade their exiting money. Not new money.

    Money printing only happens when the FED is involved. Currently, they are not stimulating the economy through money printing (i.e. bond purchases)

    One might make a case that this opens the door for more stimulus etc… But that’s a subjective opinion.

  126. Keys

    jlinks,
    You got to be kidding…we are not going back into this stupid debt doesn’t matter debate again.

    Gary,

    A little concerned if gold doesn’t correct soon, and I mean soon!…could be an inter-day event, but if some of the steam isn’t taken out of this thing, I am getting nervous that this will be a fake rally for gold, just as the manipulated rally for stocks was. 10-11 straight up downs is crazy, what next 20 straight up days? Does anybody have a precedent for how long gold can rally in a healthy rally without a day off. Hair on the back of my neck is perking again. HAPPY TO BE REALLY WRONG!! Hopefully we correct real soon!

  128. Gary

    Keys,
    There is no question at this point that gold put in an intermediate low. I think gold is just setting up for the parabolic finish that we’ve been looking for for almost two years now.

  129. Harry

    jlinks, when (not if) the debt ceiling is raised and more bonds are issued, the Fed will have no choice but to step in and continue buying them. These asset purchases (using printed money) have been the only thing keeping US gov’t borrowing costs so low. By definition, when the gov’t starts issuing more bonds, there will be more money printing.

  130. jlinks

    Harry

    By definition? Whose definition? A lot of very smart people agree that new stimulus are off for a while and expecting yields to rise.

    Unless it’s your definition, in which case it’s subjective and I stand corrected.

  131. Gary

    Jinks,
    The Fed’s balance sheet has expanded by several trillion dollars and it continues to expand. The Fed is printing money and buying assets whether they announce it as QE or not and have been for over two years.

    If citizens were to buy bonds then yes the Fed could drain liquidity by selling treasuries into the market. However I think there will be limited buyers at these interest rates.

    In order to get anything resembling true demand I think Bond prices are going to have to fall and interest rates rise.

  133. jlinks

    Gary

    “The Fed’s balance sheet has expanded by several trillion dollars and it continues to expand.”
    True

    “The Fed is printing money and buying assets whether they announce it as QE or not and have been for over two years.”
    FOMC is a tool used by the FED for decades. When we are talking stimulating the economy, their plans are announced first, aka TARP, QE1, QE-light, QE2.

    “If citizens were to buy bonds then yes the Fed could drain liquidity by selling treasuries into the market. However I think there will be limited buyers at these interest rates.”
    The debt ceiling raise will allow new bonds to be sold by the treasury, not old bonds held by the FED. These new bonds will be sold on the bond market and bought with existing money, unless the FED announces new stimulus.

    Simply stating that raising the debt ceiling means money printing confuses economic cause-effect.

  134. Harry

    jlinks, you are technically correct that new bond issues will not necessarily constitute new money printing. Fine, I’ll grant you that. But given how low bond rates are at the moment I think Gary is correct that there will not be enough true market demand to sustain prices at current levels. That’s unacceptable as far as the Fed is concerned, and they will have no choice but to step in and buy. So I think it not unreasonable to say that new bond issues will, at least indirectly, beget new money printing.

    Also keep in mind the size of the Fed’s balance sheet; simply rolling over the trillions in treasuries they’re currently holding, which are mostly short-term, will be enough to keep a price floor in the bond market for a while.

  135. E

    Gary, I am confused with the last paragraph in today’s report.

    So are we saying that there will be a correction or there will be a runaway move? Can you please clarify.

    TIA.

  136. Gary

    The universal problem that most inexperienced investors have is that they try to trade around an expected correction.

    I’ve gone back and forth with myself many times as to whether it’s helpful or not to prepare people for a daily cycle correction. I suspect most people trade out of their positions and then when the market doesn’t correct immediately they end up panicking back in at, or close to the short term top.

    When I say I expect a correction that is not a signal to sell your positions, it’s a signal to prepare to add to positions.

    For all we know gold could continue higher for another 10 days and anyone that sells now could miss out on a huge rally. It’s just not worth the risk of missing the upside in a bull market to try and sidestep a minor 1% or 2% pullback.

  137. E

    Thanks Gary, I just wanted some clarity as I am going on vacation and wanted to take some action before then.

  138. Harry

    I’m keeping my promise [to myself] to do this one Old Turkey style, and I absolutely will not touch my contracts right now, but I just want to mention that the daily RSI is now maxed out.

    JUST SAYIN’, GUYS.

  140. Poly

    RSI on any “normal” setting is very far from maxes out IMO!

    Yes we’re way overdue for a red candle, but let’s give this bull the credit it deserves. Something greater than cycles and TA in gold is at hand now.

    Ride with it, run with it or get crushed by it.

  141. Duuuuuude

    Yes Gann. I just thought it was interesting how well it seemed to line up with the SPX cycles. I also find it interesting that the next fib line is on August 4, just two days after the scheduled debt ceiling vote. Not saying I know how to trade it…..just interesting. I would respect it as a bull or a bear.

  143. Rob L.

    Poly,

    I hope you are correct with your beliefs about gold’s current IT cycle, but wouldn’t you agree that the dollar still has to find its 3 year low in order for this move in gold to go parabolic?

  145. Rob L.

    Gary,

    I know! And your comparison with the $USD ’08, in tonight’s letter, was an eye-opener. The current formation of the USD looks almost identical to the last 3 year low.

  147. Gary

    The current intermediate cycle in the dollar is too late for an explosion. If not this daily cycle than likely the next one will begin the move down into the intermediate low.

    The expectation is that the move down into the intermediate low will spur gold into a parabolic top.

  149. Gary

    Gold will certainly be a bubble one day, but it obviously isn’t at the moment.

    In order to be a bubble the public has to panic into an asset similar to what happened with tech stocks and housing. Go ask any of your neighbors and I bet you’ll find that none of them own gold. When gold does become a bubble half of them will own gold.

  150. Harry

    E, I’ll have to concur with the most recent comment on that post:

    “I like how anyone can look at that kitco chart and call it bearish. Unfukin-believable.”

  151. David

    If the dollar is indeed basing ’08-style, that would be very ominous for gold, would it not?

    My memory is that gold made marginal new highs in summer 08. I chased those highs, much as I am now, and got creamed as the dollar rallied into the meltdown.

    If the dollar explodes higher, there’s a strong chance that this is a false breakout.

  152. Gary

    08 was the eight year cycle low for gold the next one is due until 2016.

    You probably don’t have to worry about another 30% correction in gold for at least another five years.

    At this point every intermediate cycle bottom should hold. The last one came in at 1478. So we should not see gold below 1478 for the rest of this bull market.

  153. Elaine

    Gary,

    After approximately 2016, will the gold bubble be exhausted? What will the 8 year cycles look like after that time?

    Thank you.

    Elaine

  154. Jenny

    Éamonn,
    I finally got the Profit Calculator to show it’s colorful spread sheet by using GDX, call, $55, Sept 11 and 1 contract. Thank you!

  156. Mike

    Hi Gary,

    Just wanted to clarify, you are talking about a parabolic top in the next few months, is that correct?

    Also, you said

    “You probably don’t have to worry about another 30% correction in gold for at least another five years.”

    Does this mean it will still be worthwhile dropping our gold position after this parabolic top, as less than 30% doesn’t really seem worth it to me?

    Thanks

  157. JEFFtheFLEA

    gary said

    I’ve gone back and forth with myself many times as to whether it’s helpful or not to prepare people for a daily cycle correction

    clearly you warn not to trade these wiggles and to buy the dip.
    I like it when you prep us for a pullback. Its not scarry when it happens and buying the dip is very satisfying. Plus the ones sittting there need help getting in.
    the call came pretty sudden this time without the preperation beforehand like so offten. but you didnt get caught off gard, you saw it when it happened.
    I guess im trying to point out if someone wants to get cute that is there problem. If they want to buy a dip like they should then they need help.

    I vote for prep for the dip

  158. Ivan G

    Mike,

    My expectation: if this is parabolic C-wave the following D-wave can or will correct as much as 2/3 of the move. So if here goes to 1850, correction to 1574/1600 is within the reach.

  159. Duuuuuude

    Gary, you had mentioned a month or two ago that gold C waves in the future would not end with the sharp parabolic rises that they have in the past because of the large amount of gold held by large funds now…..that the topping process would be less of a spike but more of a rounder top. How far stretched above the 200 sma do you see future C wave tops being?

  160. smt_troll

    “The Fed’s balance sheet has expanded by several trillion dollars and it continues to expand.”

    You have a strange definition of “several.” The Fed’s balance sheet is under three trillion dollars (not that that is great, but it a far smaller number than you imply.

  161. Poly

    Rob,

    No I do not agree that the dollar must find a lower 3 yr low, due to the nature of this rally and environment. Although it would obviously help.

  163. kmisak

    Maybe the breather in gold will come today. As I type, gold has dipped below 1600; however, we all know that these moves before the open are pretty unpredictable…

  164. HolyAFK

    Looks like we are getting a breather today. What levels do you guys recon we are going to get? I got a order to buy at 1581.00 but maybe that’s to low.

  166. Gary

    Mike,
    It 10 or 12% correction is scary in gold. Miners can lose up to 25%. One of these. Yes I think it’s worth avoiding if at all possible.

  168. Gary

    Elaine,
    2016 is when the next eight year cycle low is due. My best guess is that we will get the parabolic bubble top for gold in 2017 or 2018.

  170. Éamonn

    I was wondering about the role of psychology in weightlifting. You know, if the sheer will to lift the weight gives you any extra strength or is it all objectively in reality solely deterministic based on your biological condition….

  171. Gary

    Most definitely psychology plays a huge part in weightlifting. One has to visualize themselves being able to lift the weight.

  172. ND

    gary,

    sorry for asking but cant find in your report..should an order be placed at 10 SMA on gold now or are we gonna wait before placing it?

  174. Gary

    ND,
    The model portfolio is fully invested (75%). So at this point I’m not looking for further entries.

    If you missed last two entries and you need to make a plan where you want to buy and what your backup plan will be if those levels aren’t reached.

  175. ND

    i took my first pos on the last entry.. but looking to add further. think i’ll add some at 10 sma and the the final once the swing low is confirmed during the daily cycle low.

    once we ge our next swing low do you put your stops at that level?

  176. Jenny

    Éamonn,

    I finally got it to work! I used GDX call at 55 9-11 1 contract and got the colored spread chart I was looking for.

    THANKS for your help!

  178. DG

    Michael: Yes Jason said newsletter sentiment has risen sharply on gold, but also that that indicates coming short term weakness (1 week or so) only. Fits with a DCL low coming up.

  182. Gary

    The model portfolio is designed for the maximum number of investors. For most people 75% of their portfolio concentrated in one asset class is more than enough exposure.

    If you want to take on more risk than that then adjust your position sizes accordingly.

  184. Gary

    Dan,
    That’s probably too early. I’m looking for a minor corrective move here followed by one more push higher into a daily cycle top.

  187. MikeStiller

    Gary-
    So you are looking for an intermediate cycle dollar correction after this or next daily cycle followed by another intermediate cycle higher which runs into Oct or Nov?

  188. Gary

    cycles are pretty much worthless for spotting tops.

    We just have to let them happen and then try and catch the bottom of the correction.

    That’s what cycles do they give you a timing band for a bottom, not a top.

  190. William Wallace

    Gary,

    I understand…you have taught me that before. I seen STRAT81 mentioned possibly using Volume Spread Analysis to spot tops, would you consider giving it a try?

  191. Dan

    A daily cycle top on the 26th? You guys don’t think the big boys will try to keep gold under 1600 for futures and options expiry on the 26th?

  198. Dan

    Yesterday gold was up and GLD was near the top for SoS selling on strength, today gold is down and GLD is near the top for BoW buying on weakness.

    Not sure how relevant these stats are with behaviour like this.

  199. William Wallace

    Dan,

    People are so confused right now…I think the fact that the intermediate cycle low caught many unawares because everyone was expecting a bottom on the 150sma, and then this rally where everyone is expecting a pullback that is still to be seen…I know im losing my mind, the BOW & SOS numbers are whats keeping me sane because I see im not the only one!!

  208. Dan

    WW,

    I know the feeling. With the futures/options expiries, pending debt ceiling announcement and the overbought conditions, it would appear that the downside potential far outweighs the upside until mid next week. At best, we should get a consolidation around 1600.

    That’s what logically makes sense although when have markets ever been logicaHorton the short-term?

  209. Gary

    There are two reasons for the wide grip in the snatch. For one you don’t have to pull the bar as high. And the second reason is it’s easier to get the bar back over your center of gravity with a wider grip. Unless you have really flexible shoulders you won’t be able to squat down with the bar overhead with a narrow grip.

  213. William Wallace

    Gary,

    It just seems harder to lift such heavy weight with arms spread so far, but I guess its technique..I never snatched although I have been lifting since im 14

  214. Shalom Bernanke

    Less is more,

    I have both physical metals, and PHYS, along with miners. The physical is intended to ride the entire secular bull, while PHYS I will trade alongside the miners, exiting close to intermediate tops.

    As far as PHYS vs. GLD, I’m not sure it makes a huge difference, except that I like Sprott and as an American I think it’s not a bad idea to have my surrogate physical held in Canada vs the US. That said, I think either will perform as expected for trading purposes.

    I also like that PHYS is likely to trade at a premium if we experience a serious economic event, similar to Sprott’s PSLV which currently trades +20% to the net asset value.

    Good luck!

  215. Éamonn

    I love the intensity of weightlifting. The lifters really push themselves to the limit. You just have to look at their faces when lifting and the delight when they succeed

  221. Sasa

    William,

    Yeah, it will be around 1590 actually if gold went perfectly sideways. Not intended as a precise calculation, but just for the feel, because at the moment it seems far away at 1570.

    If gold drops slightly they can meet without too many scary candlesticks on chart in 2-3 days for a touch before a run to the daily cycle top next week.

  222. William Wallace

    Last night I just sat down on my couch for the night to watch some TV before bed and water started dripping on my head!! I look up and see my ceiling was leaking through the sheetrock seems (unfinished ceiling thank God)I hurry upstairs into the the master bedroom which is above the living room..and I see a huge puddle on the floor and water dripping from the attic!! So I hurry up into the attic, had to fling out a whole closet of clothes first to get to the attic door…I go in to my 150 degree attic and see my central AC unit is pouring water like a faucet!! I was up there until 2 AM trying to fix this thing to no avail… when I came out of the attic my wife didnt even recognize me, I lost about 100 lbs. up there!!

  232. William Wallace

    86,

    The attic is pretty big, its not the size of a sauner (is that how its spelled?)but its as hot as one, its 100 degrees during the day over here right now, so its like a buck fifty up there.

  236. 86d4life

    W2,
    Well, is it so BIG you don`t think you`ll ever find that hundred pounds up there. I mean that must be a really BIG attic! Do you have adequate venting? Is the roof properly vented?

  238. Shalom Bernanke

    traderlady,

    Those are my intentions as well. I don’t see any adjustments to be made today with the metals, so will focus on my shorter term S&P setups.

  240. William Wallace

    86,

    It has vented soffits around the whole house, a big vent on the side and an exhaust fan…but like I said it is 100 degrees outside, so its about 120 up there. When I was up there I was thinking about you bro, I was wondering how you cool your house in the wilderness…but then I thought your hottest day is my winter!

  241. Michael

    Poly, Gary,

    Poly, you raised the point a while back that the bull market in gold will most probably change character has it builds. Does this not mean that the Intermediate Corrections might become less severe as time goes on?

  243. samppa_nyman

    GARY, may I ask how did you end up at Broz? Have you tried his training system? Man I’d love to be able to recover and have free time to squat daily. That exercise gives back what you put in, no more no less…

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/golds-run-is-almost-over-2011-07-19?link=MW_story_popular

    “Consider the average recommended gold market exposure among a subset of short-term gold timers tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest (as measured by the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HGNSI). This average currently stands at 67%, which is within shouting distance of the 73.7% level the HGNSI rose to in late April, which was a several-year high.”

  244. 86d4life

    W2,
    That exhaust fan is a good deal. Keep that air moving through. No doubt, I have a few favorite temps and what`s happening now isn`t on of them, but 20 below is. I swear I can almost see the garden grow though, that`s all this wretched heat and humidity is good for!!!

  245. Éamonn

    William Wallace, believe it or not, I never once smoked that stuff, and never once took any other stuff. Just no interest in it

  246. William Wallace

    My 8 year old son just comes over and starts looking at all the members names on the blog and starts conversating…he says “who’s Poly & Gary?” I said those are my best friends…lolll.
    I said, I learn alot from them…he says “thats what friends are for” 🙂
    Then he asks me “why does Eamonn smoke weeds?” I said, ok take a walk!!!

  248. Blindweb

    Eamonn,

    I’ve studied Taoism (similar to Zen) for a decade. In the right state of mind I can eliminate my pain tolerance levels. It’s an interesting thing when you learn to do that. Most people don’tt realize how useful pain and fear are. They stop you from hurting yourself. One never can never truly know their limits until it’s too late, when they’ve crossed them to disastrous effect.

  251. Blindweb

    WW,

    I like some of King World’s more level headed guests like Rickards, Hathaway, Rule; but Eric King always seems a lot like Alex Jones. He’s not content to just present the facts. He always has to make his info sound dark and mysterious to give it that added something.

  253. Éamonn

    Blindweb, I’m not sure why you directed that comment to me. But from a scientific point of view, what you say sounds interesting. Though I am open to correction, I would disagree that a human being could tolerate certain acute types of physical pain :o)

  258. Éamonn

    you know, the one man whom I think could solve all this mess is Bill Clinton. love him or loathe him, he had such ability that I have never seen before or sense

  259. Blindweb

    Eamonn,

    You were talking about the psychology of weight lifting. Having messed with my pain tolerance levels so much I tend to worry about pushing myself too hard and breaking things, rather than not being able to push enough.

    Yeah I would probably agree no matter the extent of mental training eventually one could be overwhelmed by pain.

  261. Ben

    TommyD, the problem with using pot for medical purposes is that you can grow it yourself. Big Pharma doesn’t take kindly to being possibly cut out of the loop. Nor does the incarceration industry.

  262. Éamonn

    in The Netherlands there are cannabis cafes. Totally 100% legal. Order a coffee and a cannabis infused cake, and you can float all the way back home :o)

  263. Ben

    The previously revised CPI already helps screw those on SS. The new formula would simply accelerate the erosion of their buying power. Nearly all gov’ts in trouble screw the seniors as much as possible. What’s my own 87 year old dad going to do to fight back? How about my wife’s grandmother, who’s 102 1/2? Easy prey for the elite, time and time again.

  267. Harry

    E, yes I’m back in Shanghai for a bit, though it looks like I’ll be heading back to Seattle soon (for a few months this time). I can’t say I’ve noticed any egregious price increases for everyday things, though it’s more noticeable when I compare things to what they were when I was first here in 2008. For example, a vanilla ice cream cone at McDonalds was 2.5Y back then – now it’s 3Y!

  277. HolyAFK

    Ryan. I plan to add around 1580 and then hold trough any more down movement. I doubt 1575 will be broken. It that happens then next strong resistance is around 1555-1560.

  279. Michael

    As one very respectable pro trader put it – equities are full of bots and pros at the moment, while commodities are full of “marks”. GC halted by uptrendline right at 1588, but there’s bigger fish below the breakout levels.

  284. Gary

    It’s only the first day of the correction. You might want to be patient and see if gold can test the breakout or tag the 10 day moving average. If not then buy on a swing low.

  289. HolyAFK

    Anyone notice how tomorrow the 10 DMA will be around 1576 and that is also our breakout point? A tag of the 10 DMA tomorrow will be a huge resistance.

  297. Wav_ridah

    Bill Downey has support at 1578-1586. He said this last night:

    July 18 2011
    The daily chart shows gold at a key area —- and a bust above 1617-1625 could ignite gold even higher. Support is the 1575 area and any pullback there should find support. If this is a cycle inversion —then gold can continue higher into the end of the month and could reach as high as 1700. For now — the 1607-1622 area looks very important for this week and is a candidate for a high for the week. OPTIONS EXPIRATION IS COMING NEXT WEEK — and the 1600 strike price has a lot of CALLS in open interest. The BOYS will do what they can to force some type of pullback —- the question is — do they still have the power to do so ? Tuesday and Wednesday are key to the potential to begin a pullback. If there is one this week — it should begin in the next 24-48 hours.

  300. Keys

    1586 won’t last…purge lower we will go! I am hoping for a real freak-out break lower. The sharper the better. Once we catch a bite, we should explode from it. More than likely we we catch that second gap fill in miners. Or it won’t be a complete fill, getting everyone out on the expectation before rocketing higher…or you guys can all join me in Gary’s basement!

  301. MrMiyagi

    AAPL reports earnings at the close today.
    I think they will post some pretty good numbers and that will push up the markets tomorrow and possibly another down for metals/miners.

    I’m pretty sure but not sure enough to put money on it.

  305. Robert

    Mr. Miyagi,

    last week you said the same thing about the metals going lower when google postred good earnimgs..except gold/silver went up the next day–Its like rolling dice…you just never know

  306. Keys

    no I am 100% in already…not selling or buying, simply surfing. I just like to watch the action…I was a little concerned if we didn’t get a correction soon; it was due and needed in order for this rally to continue. So my projections are not tradable, just psychological preparations.

  309. Keys

    Just a scenario…the other scenario is that I end up with Toby sleeping on the couch in Gary’s basement. Lol…happy to be at the popcorn stage of the trade…much easier!

  311. Keys

    A really great scenerio is if we gap so far down tomorrow in miners that the second gap is filled…that type of event I would most likely add leverage too. But wishful thinking I am afraid.

  316. Michael

    And what if GDX fills its 3rd gap below $54 – that’s a 13% drawdown and likely 15-25% if leveraged in options and/or smaller stocks – are you prepared for that groin kick?

    Stocks and gold have gone heavily inverse intra-day today on good volumes, if holds – that correlation may be a timing aid for adding.

  318. Duuuuuude

    Thanks to Gary’s coaching in cycles, I sense very little fear among the posters here at SMT. I have been anxiously awaiting this pull back to add my last position. It will be fun to ride this Intermediate Cycle with a strong hand.

  320. CMT

    I bought some DGP and NUGT. Still lighter than I want to be (only about 2/3rds in), and will continue to add on pullbacks.

  322. Ivan G

    Wonder if that move down last friday on SPRROT PHYS was a pre – signal for today’s action in gold 🙂 Today GLD and PHYS are looking equally corrected

  323. Shalom Bernanke

    I’m still sitting tight, but welcome the pullback. Let’s see if we can get some follow through to the downside over the next couple days. If not, and we just go sideways for ahwhile, I’ll add anyway. For now, sitting tight.

  325. Poly

    Don’t let me hear anybody saying next week, “is this a good time to add” or ” do you think we will get a pullback soon, this is crazy” or ” i missed that run last week and now i want to get back in”. You get the point. 🙂

  326. Shalom Bernanke

    Ivan G,

    Sprott gold (PHYS) was down on an offering, and has happened several times when the premium gets “fat”. He raised something like $260 million to buy more gold, and it was gobbled up faster than in the past. I believe it’s already priced in, even though I’m not doing any buying today (in metals).

  330. james r

    Added some shares from this pullback.

    I do not think this is the pullback we are waiting for. I say we have two more days for miners to top.

    James

  331. catbird

    Buying on Weakness list as of now (WSJ.com):

    GLD is at #2.

    I have not added anything, because ain’t no way this is the daily cycle low already.

  339. Poly

    We’re not in the timing band for a DCL. This is a excessive sentiment clearing and back to the mean event.

    After a $130 run, I would not under-estimate the power of this bull, we’ve corrected $28 from the top. Surprises on the upside.

  345. Harry

    The SMT contrarian indicator is flashing: everyone’s hoping for more downside so I’m going to assume that was it for the correction ;P

    Gary, since the previous daily cycle was short, perhaps this daily cycle will run long? We’d be in the timing band for a mid-daily cycle correction, si?

  346. Gary

    The previous two daily cycles were extremely long. Gold was due a short cycle to even out those two long cycles.

    I just wasn’t expecting it during an intermediate decline.

  348. HolyAFK

    Harry

    I have to disagree with you on that point. I still dont think we have shaken enough out for the mid correction to be over. My bet is we are getting the low tomorrow.

  351. Gary

    Today better not be a daily cycle high as it would signal a left translated cycle.

    Usually about halfway through a cycle gold will move down into a minor correction which sets the pivot that will mark the daily cycle trend line.

  352. Hack

    Now that Apple is above $400, how does that fit into the doomsday scenario? S&P still on target for1450 by end of year.

  355. Russell

    Gary,
    Please tell me that you don’t think today was the the daily high on day 12. I’m trying to be old turkey, and now someone suggests it Thanksgiving.

  356. Gary

    Rob,
    The stockcharts will update with the correct price later in the day.

    Russell,
    Read the comment by Strat81 right above mine.

  366. catbird

    Gary,

    I’ve got to say, you’ve brought me around to seeing the absurdity of the more hysterical “the PMs are manipulated” conspiracy kooks.

    Perhaps the most histrionic of the bunch got all worked up into a paranoid lather because gold dropped barely more than 1% today…after what, 10 straight up days?

    Ah, but it dropped a little today, about when Barry gave his speech, so we know the “Forces of Evil” were manipulating it.

    I say bring on another 2 weeks (or 2 months) of manipulation like the last 2 weeks.

  367. 86d4life

    Jeff the F,
    You mean the 1320? Isn`t that something? Gold is starting to feel like a F3 headed for an F4 ans where do these guys come up with this stuff. Gary, sometime in the last week I think you posted a chart, about 10 years worth on gold where you had underlined the ascending trendlines. Could you post that again if it`s not too much trouble. I think that should clear up any misconceptions.

  371. catbird

    re: Tim Knight:

    WOW. Just….wow.

    Note to self: load up on GDX calls on further weakness.

    A call like that should be music to the ears of PM longs.

  372. catbird

    I probably don’t need to say this, but I was kidding about buying calls.

    Still, TK is more often than not a wonderful contrarian indicator when he gets bearish on PMs and miners.

  374. Gary

    Smart money isn’t necessarily specific individual traders or funds. It just means that institutions are starting to sell stock into rallies.

    That steady selling pressure shows up on the weekly money flow chart as a divergence.

  375. Gary

    Basil,
    I have to admit I have no idea what the dollar is going to do at this point. If the recent daily cycle low gets penetrated though that would be an indication of a lower low to come. Possibly below the May bottom.

Comments are closed.