373 thoughts on “PORTFOLIO CHANGE

  1. St. Deluise

    also last time i swear- but the rug has been pulled out so hard in /gc that the last time there was this amount of money in it it was trading at 1617. and dropping.

    not that it’s headed there in a straight line..

  2. St. Deluise

    and excuse me earlier, i miswrote- SPY pivot at 116.85. getting long there (& kicking myself for selling yesterday afternoon but them’s the breaks)

  3. Gary

    Yes this is what I tried and tried to warn people could happen if they continued to try and catch every last penny of the gold parabola.

    But then again what do I know?

  4. Gary

    I actually decide to go to 25%. Just so everyone knows what to do, since you all crashed the site by trying to all log in at the same time.

  5. Feel

    A few days ago someone posted a link to an interview on king world gold. I listened to it and then got sucked into a bunch more. Fascinating! I had no idea there was so much going on with gold and silver.

    Embarrassed to say I listened to maybe 10 of those things. Anyway, I won’t ask all the questions I have here but I do have one.

    There was a man on from Utah who was involved with passing a law to make gold legal tender in Utah. They made it sound like items purchased with gold are NOT subject to sales tax?

  6. Mr. T

    I can’t access SMT either – listen – don’t short gold. It’s a very “bad odds” trade since the odds are unclear. The trends should be predictable to increase odds – right now it’s like being a bug in a pool after a very large person just did a canon-ball…

  7. Shalom Bernanke


    Hope you din’t mind me saying it’s a bit early to claim victory on your gold call just because it’s pulled back 2 days thus far.

    Even my remaining 30% of PHYS is still up 12%.

    For those interested, my overall P+L on total combined outstanding positions did just poke into negative territory (not including the PHYS trade that was already trimmed last week).

    And I’d wager the action portends even lower prices in metals/miners the next few days, so not in there adding today. Might, but prob not.

  8. Dubbelito

    LOL @ Gary,
    you have created an army of blog readers who JUMP when you say so!

    Or, in this case, tried to jump but landed flat on our posteriours since the trampoline were missing, so to speak.

  9. Dan


    I have a low of 1813 on gold…..not at 1700s yet….although my gold shorts from yesterday doing quite well πŸ™‚

  10. Gary

    The problem is 95% of all my subscribers are not like you. Despite my many warnings they take too large of position sizes and then they get knocked out at bottoms. So I don’t have the luxury of ignoring intermediate degree declines or worse D-Wave declines. If I do a lot of people lose money and then get permanently knocked off the bull market.

    And yes I know it’s easy to say that it’s their fault but that’s still doesn’t help me to keep people riding this bull market.

  11. Shalom Bernanke


    You’re right on the money with that comment. I have always understood you are subjected to much more pressure by the fact you have subs.

    Anyway, I hope don’t take my comments the wrong way. It really does depend on where one buys, their outlook that is.

    Perhaps I’m just talking myself through this trade to get to the other side, as it’s also not easy seeing huge gains given back, even if for the bigger prize. πŸ™‚

  12. Visitor

    I know this is a gold bug blog and all, but while you are over analyzing gold, Sugar is the place to be as I let you know last week. SGG is making new highs today.

    Today Gary finally gets to say “I told you” only a month or so late.

    Gold volatility due mostly to Comex Opt. Ex. and perfect storm of run up. I’m sure you’ll be late to catch up thinking you are in that much talked about D wave. – Whatever ~

  13. Gary

    In case you haven’t figured it out by now I am almost always early. It’s better to be early than late as we were so painfully shown in May.

    And we have a very clear signal that will tell us if this is just a daily cycle decline or the beginning of a D-Wave which you would know if you had read last night’s report.

  14. Billy

    Whats up with the USD? Catching the puke bucket from gold or something more? Hopefully this money will start finding it’s way into the QQQ’s.

  15. Dan

    Zerohedge explanation for this gold drop is humorous. It has nothing to do with gold ring stretched relative to the 200dmva and extreme sentiment all based on markets digesting “news from 2 days ago.”

  16. Gary

    Gurvir is moving the premium site to a dedicated server to cure the problem.

    It should be up and running in the next 15 or 20 min. and we shouldn’t have this problem ever again

  17. St. Deluise

    i have a question though- is the preference for QQQ based solely on the intrinsic mania behind aapl/nflx/amzn? i tend to stick with SPY just because it’s easier to track what the funds are doing.

  18. Gary

    I went over what we need to see to determine whether a D-Wave has begun in last night’s report. Did you read the report?

  19. Mr. T

    Gary – should your dedicated server run out of juice as well, next time ask Gurvir to consider that cost to convert and monthly running cost to hot the site on the Amazon EC2 environment. It may end up being comparable in cost to a dedicated server and can handle huge spikes.


  20. Danno

    I think Gary can claim victory on his gold call. I think it’s great that he was right cause my hedge is exploding in value!! I am cheering for gold and silver to tank here (even though I am very long). This is EXACTLY why people hedge. Of course, Gary could have been off by $200 and that’s why I wanted to stay long. Gold could have rocketed past $2,000 no problem. You never know. It’s all a guessing game. At least Gary makes educated guesses and his charts are cool. Good work!

  21. Steve


    I show SGG at 103.07 – Could you please share why you think it’ll make new highs today (over 107, right?), and how long of a term you would hold it? Any stops?

    Thanks for our info, SP

  22. Danno

    Gold will either bounce off its Bollinger Band mid line around $1733 or it won’t. If it does not then we go lower to the 50 SMA at $1623. Course it may take a few days of bobbing around the BB mid line before we’ll know. IMHO.

  23. Dan


    So gold goes up, you make money. Gold goes down, you make money? Doubt it…..why not just invest the difference of your long position less your short and you’d be in the same boat less those brokerage fees and margin for error/headache of managing umcessary positions.

    Hedging is for the big boys that move markets with their trades.

  24. Danno


    I bought shares (long).
    I hedged with put options.

    The put options in increase in value faster than the long shares lose value. Not on a mild pull back, but on a sharp pull back they will and this appears to be the case. I’m not yet a break even but if this keeps up I will actually make money, plus I will still have all those long shares on the way back up.

    You need to buy a few books. Maybe I shouldn’t talk about this stuff here. Options are dangerous if used improperly. Wickedly dangerous.

  25. Gary

    If gold continued to go up then you threw money away on your hedges. If you miss time the bottom and gold goes back up, then you threw money away on your hedges again.

    Now you have to time the bottom of the correction correctly in order to make money on your hedges.

    Like I said if you wanted to stay market neutral all you had to do was sell. Now you have to manage two positions instead of one.

  26. Feel

    Still short 1000 GLD avg. 178.58. Moved stop to cover to 176.53

    Huge volume came in at my 171.50 level.

    Wanna add the last 500 on weakness at that level. Question is what happens between now and it being revisited, if at all.

    Several gaps got filled.

    This is my plan:

    If I get filled on a move below 171.50 I will watch to exit between 169 (at worst) and 162 (at best).

  27. Felix

    “Euro/US Dollar options sentiment continues to recover from bearish extremes, suggesting the EURUSD has further room to run to the topside amidst broader US Dollar losses. CFTC Commitment of Traders data likewise shows that Non-Commercial traders have once again turned net-long after falling net-short *for the first time since January.*

    And though one week hardly makes a trend, we see risks that a continued correction could force a noteworthy EUR break to the topside.”


  28. marksomething

    second strings, bench warmers and retailers are all in a tizzy and confused as to what to do… up and down up and down…

    I wish my plays could pay off the mortgage but until that day I gotta go to work.

    good fortune tuh y’all.

    MS out!!!

  29. Harry

    Still in wait-and-see before I add any equities position here. Current weakness/failure to hold 10 DMA is keeping me cautious.

  30. Danno


    I hear what you’re saying man. The only thing that matters is that I make money in the end. With my method I can be very wrong and still win. That is what options are for. I am not against EVER selling shares. I just felt there was a chance that gold (but especially silver) could vault significantly higher.

    Anyway, good call on the pivot.

  31. St. Deluise

    yeah weakness in SPY here getting suspicious. yesterday’s VWAP is 114.83. probably shouldn’t get much lower than that if this is the real mccoy.

  32. bamster


    I had the same strategy, very small of course. Sold my GLD puts this morning and made money. now have a stop in place on GLD shares. Even if the stop gets hit, I’ve made money on the trade. If it doesn’t get hit, I’ll buy enough puts at the end of the day to cover any downside overnight. I’ll keep doing this until Gary calls the bottom in Gold.

  33. MrMiyagi

    Wild wild swings on gold price, went from 1790 to 1781 in a few seconds.

    All right, this old man needs to get a crown. Off to the dentist.

  34. Gurvir


    Gary was on a virtual server. Just dual core with 4gb ram. Moving over to a dedicated dual xenon with 8 cores, 8gb ram and raid 10 config. This should handle the load at least until the next C wave when people going to be causing huge spikes again! The user base on the premium site could possibly triple in size in which case we might need to beef up a bit more.

  35. Shalom Bernanke

    Looks like I’m on the pain train with a one-way ticket!

    I haven’t been adding today, and believe more downside is likely short term.

    Gonna take nap. πŸ™‚

  36. Feel

    Move below earlier low will be decisive. Needs to happen now if 169-162 window is to open today.

    If it goes it will get “swooshy”

    buckling up…

  37. Danno


    Glad to hear it. Now I don’t feel so lonely around here. lol. I’m going to the movies. Silver is wounded here. Will take a few weeks to recover. I sold more covered calls (way out of the money). When we feel a bottom coming I’ll sell my puts, use some of that cash to buy more inexpensive puts further down the chain (just in case) and maybe sell a few naked puts. We’ll see. Gotta be very careful with those naked puts but the puts I buy should limit the downside. Such are the plans of mice and men. See ya…

  38. Gann360

    Wow .It’s safe to say .My Confluence of Fib Cycles Hit the Metals.as they are Reacting to Them !!!

    GLD Close to Tagging $169-170 Support

  39. Mr. T

    Gurvir – nice to see you a part of the community – you get to see how your efforts help us all! Sounds like your dedicated server will certainly support a high load (so long as that one server doesn’t have issues). Beauty of EC2 is it doesn’t rely on a single piece of hardware. BTW, thanks for all your work; you do support a stable site. Just wanted to throw the EC2 idea out there. I used to support the 5th largest portal infrastructure for years, and EC2 is a god send for things like spiking sites πŸ™‚

  40. NJ

    Veronica: What does the huge Dec contract mean? Long or short Gold? How are you interpreting it? and where are you getting the data from?


  41. SF Giants Fan

    Mr M

    That picture was classic.

    Unfortunately there some that are saying ” I thought everybody said it was going to 2k?”

    Maybe it’s got one more thrust up, but its got to be hell to hold thru a decline like this.


    Gold -102.90

  42. MarkF


    I mentioned on the premium site that I only had 5% in miners, the rest in cash. I was ready to pull the trigger at what appeared to be a breakout in GDX. I couldn’t stand the pain anymore of watching the miners fly by me. You calmed me down and saved my butt. That 5% was dumb money because I didn’t listen. I’m looking forward to buying at a bottom instead of a top.


  43. Gary

    What’s the point of riding a D-Wave all the way down? You’re just going to give back all of your gains and then some.

    The move is just starting in the stock market. It makes more sense to lock in whatever gains you still got left and then make some money in the stock market. And then put that money to work at the bottom of the D-Wave.

    Broken parabolas never recover in my experience. This is only the second day and D-Wave’s is usually last 5 to 8 weeks.

  44. Gary

    I think the S&P will at a very minimum tag the 200 day moving average and probably manage to poke above there a bit.

  45. Gann360

    Hey Dan…

    I think GLD Should Bounce from $169-170 But i ,sold all my Shorts ,Today(i was short Gold and Silver )and Now,in Cash .i dont wanna fool around and possibly get caught
    in a Bigger Fall.

    Should the Metals retest the High (as in a Lower High ) of some kind ,i will than reload Short.

    But for now, i wanna see what Happens in the next few Days,

    Do the Markets retest to lows?(SPX ) ( maybe not ! )but if it does, i guess the metals will Get a Bid.

    If we do retest the Lows,i will Buy inn Long the SPX/Dow/QQQ

  46. Le Fou

    Lots of talk about a D-wave or touching the 200 dma today.

    As near as I can tell we haven’t yet broken the trend line to indicate a DCL on the way. Am I missing something?

    Le Fou

  47. Feel


    lol, I’m giving it everything I’ve got! Gary’s voice is in my head though reminding me about the bull…

    This 170 zone is tedious. I think it’s b/c of the gap from the 11th that opens up the one on the 8th.

  48. Feel


    I meant the gap on the 10th, not the 11th.

    Anyway, if 169 opens up I will be eyeing an exit. That’s the upper range of my target zone for this leg down.

  49. Veronica

    Thanks to all for your kind words, it’s been a heckuva run for over a year now. I’ve got a feeling my system will flip flop back and forth for a while so I will now be looking for Gary’s low call where I will try my best to hold onto all positions acquired in my trading accounts.Hopefully an old turkey moment coming soon:)

  50. Jason

    So ironic that my friend IMs me just last night telling me he found a silver seller that will sell physical at below spot, and asks if I want to pitch in for a group buy.

    I tell him they are selling because a collapse is coming and they want to take profits. He doesn’t listen because he’s in the perma-bull camp, stocking up on PMs, crash JPM, etc etc.

  51. Shalom Bernanke


    I just got back so will answer your question. To me, the S&P trade (or QQQ) is entirely different than my miners I’m working into over time. I might also play a bounce in the general market and don’t need to do one or the other b/c I still have plenty of dry powder.

    As far as the miners, I understand your observation about a potential D-wave in the midst. It does concern me, but keep in mind I’m in miners not the metal, and bought them AFTER a 45-50% pullback from the ’08 lows, so they’ve already had their D-wave, or at least the majority of it.

    I agree if metals get smashed that the miners aren’t going up, and will drop further, but I don’t fear that as I’m on with a plan. If the miner action if foretelling a D-wave, they could also bottom much sooner than the metals. We can’t know for sure, but I have to buy them sometime.

    I haven’t bought the general market yet, but that is also a possibility. πŸ™‚

  52. auger

    It’s not uncommon to see dealers offering some silver products below spot. Usually, junk silver (40%-90%) or Comex bars are available, at a discount.

  53. DP

    What bothers me the major indexes accomplished “death crosses” at the moment.

    Any statistical significance?

  54. Shalom Bernanke

    I think it’s presumptuous of us to think miners led metals into the D-wave, but that they will follow metals entirely lower.

    The question is do they lead or do they follow, but it’s most likely one or the other. In that case, some have already gone through a big chunk of the feared D-wave!

  55. Jason


    A D-wave that knocks gold down 30% would almost certainly knock silver down as well. ‘Crash’ is a loose term and I would define crash as a decline of >20% similar to what happened in May.

  56. auger

    SB, what do you mean you bought them after a 45-50% pullback, from the ’08 lows? GDX was below $16, SLW was nearly $2.5, AEM below $21, EXK was a penny stock, in ’08.

  57. Shalom Bernanke


    I mean the lows in 08, to the recent highs in May. They’ve pulled back 45-50% of the entire rally made after the collapse.

    Just waking up after a nap, sorry if I wasn’t more clear as I’m foggy. πŸ™‚

  58. Shalom Bernanke


    I’m not sure why you mentioned 4 stocks I don’t own except EXK, which happens to be my best so far and the only one that didn’t pull back that much. I got that one after a 30+% pullback or so.

    $12.50 to $8.50 on EXK is a 32% pullback, although I paid more than $8.50, it was the “recent” low. All the others I’ve listed here a hundred times have pulled back over 40% before I entered.

  59. auger

    I don’t keep track of your trades, SB. I’ve been trading the mining sector for years, and those were examples off the top of my head. You’ve answered my question, and made your point, thanks.

  60. aklaunch

    Nervous Nelly here too. My puts are coming back as i bought them way to early….. Thinking about letting them go for a much smaller loss than i had last week? I will probably hold them though…

  61. St. Deluise

    very nice day. thanks gary.

    for you wavers out there, assuming this is an ABC correction that points to SPY 123.40.

    for you regular folk the 1597 day simple MA is 122.80.

    friday should be interesting..

  62. William Wallace


    If you take a look at the 08 top in the market when we broke down from the head and shoulders the bear market rally did occur but with many down days also, not a straight shot up…possibility again

  63. Shalom Bernanke


    50% retraces of the general range is my point. UXG was 44% off the highs, which is my focus.

    I didn’t calculate the pennies, but will buy anything that is/was in a bull market when they pullback that much.

    If anybody thinks we’re in an ’08 exact replay, they should stay away. I happen to believe miners will lead the next leg of the bull, so bought ’em when they pulled back so much. Not much more to it than that, and in fact, I don’t even know the exact low on UXG in ’08.

  64. aklaunch


    Even if it goes down to 2.50 a share which is highly unlikely it probably will not matter much in a few years when you sell it the desperate people for 20-30$

  65. Shalom Bernanke

    Gary says a typical D-wave retraces 50% of the prior C-wave gains, so these would qualify, IMO.

    The way you’re figuring the numbers, UXG would have to pullback half of 1400%, or 700%. How can something pull back 700%?

  66. Gary

    I’m sure you know how to do math better than that.

    If something goes up 1400% from $1-$14, a 50% correction would be back to seven dollars.

  67. Poly

    Good call Gary.

    Not the best time to be on the beach with the family away from a PC.
    For me Weekly puts erased about 70% of the drop, closed all other positions and back to cash. Wishful thinking to stay long now or try to catch a low. Was a great run in the end, just not much clarity on where it ultimately goes from here in the short term.

  68. auger

    SB, read my post again. I said you purchased UXG roughly 1450% ABOVE the ’08 highs. Please don’t tell me that I’m confused.

  69. Michael (Hulk)

    Neither the oil bubble, the housing bubble, the silver bubble nor the internet bubble had central banks (!) stepping up as buyers of the asset – there are a dozen of these whales that have bought over the last year – Russia alone has $550 bn in reserves and has been buying heavily for years. Whether the details of these stories are truth or fiction, they make for great headlines and dip buying has still not caused people any pain! Comex expiration is coming up and often marks a turning point. I enjoyed Doc’s comment that “when markets are disorderly, price runs can stretch far further than cycles or sentiment suggest” I would keep an open mind at the DCL for a move up to the test the highs – a $150 move is nothing to be sneezed at.

  70. Gary

    In my experience what is most important is the degree of stretch. All markets act on action and reaction.

    Gold got extremely stretched above the 200 day moving average. I seriously doubt that the downside will end before at least moving back to the mean, and will probably overshoot the mean a little bit on the downside.

  71. catbird

    Shalom has the discipline of a bodybuilder training for a show and the patience of a Zen master.

    Basically, as Gary has oft pointed out, he is different than 99% of Gary’s readers.

  72. Gary

    The only problem is that mentality will get one caught at the top of the bubble.

    Granted we are nowhere near the bubble stage yet. But you can see how hard it was for people to exit during this parabola. Imagine how hard it’s going to be when gold has rallied 200 or 300% in the year.

  73. Gary

    There will come a time when stocks are ridiculously cheap and gold is absurdly expensive. Our emotions are going to tell us to continue riding the gold bull, but I’m going to tell you the buy stocks. I will be early, like I always am. But I will be right.

    The question is will you listen to me then, or ignore me again?

  74. Michael (Hulk)

    A possibility to consider partly because few are is that some excess has now been worked off and today’s volumes show signs of puke (record 400K in the futures) and we have tentative support here at 20MA and 38.2 retracement while conventional topping or bottoming would be failure at around the old extreme levels rather than a one-jab knockout like today …

  75. Keys

    Actually I think the time to sell gold is when Ben under so much pressure decides to join SMT. Of couse the inflated price of SMT at that point will be 1 million US pesos.

    Seems like we are due for a nice long painful depression like recession again, before QE3 is announced….I fully expect the Vortex to take over at a certain point…

    Stocks rally makes sense right now, but only so long before the Vortex takes that out too.

    Only question, looking forward will be if Gold tanks even harder when the market turns…hmmm….very likely that gold can do its own thing…but with the disadvantage of people being burnt by gold, may force gold to respond in kind to a market decline.

    For another day….

  76. Moondoggie

    I didn’t ignore you … I took enough pain in May and I didn’t want to do that again ! I also bought QQQ this morning.
    I am confused about something though … since you use the S&P as an indicator why do you buy QQQ?

  77. Michael (Hulk)

    One of the signs that the short side is completely in control and the long side is a no-go are those that presented themselves in, say, recent silver or cotton broken parabolas – inability to trade above prior day’s highs or form a swing.

    My suspicion is piqued because the bid-hitting was so extreme in futures that it was a panic that I often see toward the end of a move. In any case just considering a possibility out loud.

  78. Clarkatroid

    i feel quite euphoric for you today gary

    Too many people have been complaining about your analysis recently. Todays move is yet more proof, not that its needed, that your a really really good investor

  79. MrMiyagi

    There’s one more recent gap on GLD that I would love to see filled; 164-165$. Gold also has a gap at that range.
    That would be sweet but I don’t think it will get there.

  80. Neo

    CME GROUP – Gold Margin Rise Effective After Close Of Business Thursday

    Margins will be raised 27%

    Old Margin $7,425
    New Margin $9450

    Old Maintenance $5,500
    New Maintenance $7,000

  81. William Wallace


    What you need to figure out now is how to get us out a bit closer to tops…I noticed one thing at this gold top while I was trading futures, at the open in the futures market on the day we topped I had a 5 min chart open and seen a $17 dollar spike in the first 5 min, that was the first time I ever seen such a spike at the open. Seen big spikes during the night, but never this big right at the open. I thought to myself and also mentioned to someone on the blog that this probably signals the top.

  82. Gary

    I tried that in May and look what it got us :~)

    Fortunately I learned my lesson. Apparently many people didn’t.

  83. William Wallace


    Sorry I was actually smiling when writing it, your right though sounded different without actually putting the πŸ™‚


    I know you tried, and I see how much you regret it, I understand completely

  84. Gary

    Spotting tops in real time is tough. Markets go up differently then they go down.

    Gold had no less than four potential tops during this final run. All of them occurring within the timing band for a move down into a daily cycle low.

    It will always be much easier to spot a bottom than a top.

  85. Hack

    Watch out on the tech trade. Seasonality is in October. S&P returned 1.31% today. Nazzy .88% The market is now overbought, time to close out some of my longs…

  86. Danno

    Notice how GLD was down -3.39% while SLV was only down -4.49%. Most would have expected the bloodletting in silver to be worse.

  87. Gary

    Silver was down over 7% intraday. Give it time, before this D-wave is done silver will be somewhere back in the 20’s just like I said it would.

    Usually broken parabola’s return to their origin. That would be $21 for silver.

    I would love to buy $21 silver :~)

  88. ...at ease

    Supposed to be a better value next year and later. Will be interesting if you will actully buy it again. When I signed up you were all Silver, then not going to touch it again after May. Now it’s flashing its shiny eyes at you Gary, luring you back. πŸ˜‰

  89. MrMiyagi

    AAPL 355$ with a low of 350$ after hours.

    Curious as to how this plays out in the next few days, it’s still a great company with a realistic PE.

  90. Hack

    Buy QQQ now? Not a good trade in my opinion. I have a 3/4 position in AAPL but I have no need to run out and test a thesis…

  91. fat boy

    At Ease thanks for the shout

    I have been drinking water from a fire hose at work – not literally

    Well what do you think sold out gold at 1720 currently saving money and preserving but couldn’t help this
    2.5 % in OPTION GLD october puts 111022P00160000 AT $1.40 now at $ 3.25
    2.5 % ZSL AT $11.78 now at 12.88
    5.0% QLD at $73.8099 now at $ 73.71 probably add more QQQ soon

    man feel conservative rest in cash
    question is when to dump the puts and ZSL ?

    any input appreciated

  92. Harry

    Gary, your buddy John Townsend recently compiled a list of D-waves. Each one retraced at least 61.8%. Assuming we put in the C-wave top yesterday at $1917.9, and starting from the 6 Apr 2009 low of $865.6, that would give us a target for gold somewhere south of $1267. That’s way, way past the 200 DMA. Over 200 points past it, in fact.

    You’ve previously mentioned the consolidation zone in the mid 1200s as a possible D-wave bottom. Any further thoughts on this?

  93. Hack

    MarkF – AAPL will be worth $500 by this time next year easy…The iPad is replacing the PC faster than most think. Entire school districts, companies and government agencies are all buying into this technology…

  94. Wav_ridah

    Q’s reduced exposure to AAPL months ago. If this news takes the entire sector down then the q’s will take a hit. Jobs retiring was in the bag so it looks like an over reaction.

  95. Le Fou

    So Gary,

    Not that you would ever buy them, but supposin’ someone gave you 100 OCT 37 SLV PUTS, would you hold on to them down to the 200 dma? Or wait for say the mid 20s?

    Le Fou

  96. Hack

    I swear that gold is going up on Jobs retirement, (risk off). Couple that with the hurricane and Bernanke, who knows?

  97. wolf33

    65 day cycle—made me one ell of a lot of $. More than anything else i have done. i posted early yesterday that was doing some selling and then carried it even more by getting out of everything as i was going to be gone at least an hour before the close. Also said that Monday was my best day ever and that always makes me nervous. So bottom line —call it a whim—or thank the Dr i had to go see–or just plain luck—I would love to duplicate that again—and usually all time posted said follow you no the 65 day cycle.

    It will be a long time before I ever duplicate that run.

  98. wolf33

    logged back on to delete last post as that is not my charachter. tks for the removal.

    waaaaaaaaay past my getting ready for bed—a process.

    i have said many times that Gary is the best at risk reward andreaction i have ever seen. 99% of people here should just follow!

    g/l to all

  99. Danno

    Are the rumors of gold’s demise greatly exaggerated? Note the parabola of Sept-Nov 2007. It only corrected to the 50 day moving average, then surged another 23% beyond its all time high. The parabola was not retraced until the crash of 2008, a full year later.

  100. Dubbelito

    Gold penetrating its Trendline (1725-ish), which now confirms a Daily cycle low according to the rules.

    Who wudda thunk three measly days ago eh?

    Said it before I’ll say it again. News do not drive markets, mr. Market dictate what news are aired out.

    Stevie Jobs leaving? So freakin’ what? He has been a front figure for quite some time now. If he remains a couple of more years as chairman (someone mentioned) then Apple will still have some Jobs left.

    It is different this time from last time he left, back then Apple were really down for counting. This time around I believe they have established themselves as a market mover which should not be relying on one man.

    Again, look at iPad. My word what a necessary gadget once you use it for some time! I always thought it was the height of gadget mania, but I was completely wrong.

    You don’t get that kind of innovation from one guy, you get it from a kick-ass Product management and R&D.

    Peace out fellow Trackers.

  101. Danno

    “News do not drive markets, Mr. Market dictates what news are aired out.”

    Yes. 99.9% of the time this is true. News is an excuse for what just happened.

  102. Silverhound


    Looks like you may have unloaded a big chunk of physical into the blow-off top you uncanny bugger. They say you have to make your own luck πŸ˜‰

    I’ve been doing a bit of a search for historical charts on miners since you posted the Homestake chart. Having heard in the past that the gold miners exploded out of the depression I was never sure of the exact correlation. Your chart prompted another search.

    This is what I’ve found so far. Granted it’s a bit busy and it looks like somebody found it beneath some old lino while renovating their house. It does show a 30 mining share index versus the gold price, enough to get a good idea of how it unfolded. Looks like everything drifted down into mid 1932 then exploded up from there.

    Miner Vs Gold 1910 – 1938

    The miners (the bottom line) didn’t appear to fall much below their 1931 low when they bottomed in 1932.

  103. TZ(8155)

    I was up till 5am eastern time on wednesday morning (just before gold took its second big day down) watching and thinking through the market.

    As I had indicated the previous day (tues) I thought there was a 50/50 chance gold had peaked.

    The more I thought about it going into the night the more worried I became as I looked back and examined all the clues including my own behavior, goldman/morgan hiking targets, a vertical chart, etc.

    The key to resolving whether we were going to continue up with a blowoff top (which WAS possible), as I has postulated, was we had to recover that first day’s drop almost immediately (with 24hrs).

    As I watched gold go mostly flat overnight into wed (after a small bounce), I sensed the recovery I was looking for was not happening. My belief in a top (after the first day down) became almost certain.

    I didn’t have any futures or leverage (although over the previous few days I had tried various trades to continue going long to catch one more leg up – which was my ongoing assumption until wed morning.) Almost all of them got stopped out.

    I did still have a rather large core “if the financial world collapses” position, however, that I didn’t want to ride down if I could help it.

    So..in the early morn of wed I cleared out all silver and most of my gold core. I guess you could say I went to a super small core

    I still have some because I view it as insurance and thus won’t sell down to zero, so I’m still taking a few losses as we drop, but that’s the tradeoff.

    The end result of all this and the year is that I made only a few single percent from the launch of gold at 1500. Yes, I bought in around 1550 and rode to 1660 or so, but I got cute and ended up getting taken out by misplaced stops and bad trading. Missed the rest of the rise, and then gave back most of the earlier gains in the last week or so of stop out.

    I’m still up hugely for the year, but it is all due to catching silver.

    So that’s where I am and my status going forward. I’m watching gold for rebound plays and I’m also already projecting where I think the selloff ends and where to get back in (near 1600 I think at this point but it’s coming up darn fast so maybe I’m high.)

  104. n1tro


    The ipad a “necessary gadget”? Are you kidding? What things do you do in your life that requires you to carry around a 10″ tab around? Surf the net, play angry birds? A “smart phone” would be a more a neccessary gadget.

  105. Avann

    Dubbelito … Agree re the iPad. I was of the same opinion (useless glorified iPhone) until I used one. Even with the limitations there is no tablet the comes remotely close and I’ve tried more then a few. This news about Jobs should have very short term effect if any at all.

    Posted from my iPad πŸ™‚

  106. TZ(8155)

    PS: i think we are within $10 either way right now ($1710 or so on gold as I speak) of beginning a large bounce (if it hasn’t already started).

    I want to catch it, but I suspect we have to go a bit lower looking at the chart.

  107. n1tro


    I don’t think it helped matters that the CME raised rates as gold was already going down. Profit is profit in the end. Congrats.

  108. Veronica

    Gold’s 9 day deferred MA penetrated this AM, and I’m getting very excited about gold’s prospects over the next couple of years:)!!!

  109. Dubbelito

    Have you used an iPad?

    I’m guessing no.

    I have a smartphone and I use it as well, and more so when I’m not at home since my iPad is almost always at home with the two other users (wife and two-year old daughter, 5 month-old son too young yet πŸ™‚ ). They use it for whole other purposes yet they love it too.

    It’s the ideal gadget for being close to the web in so many ways. I use it to read all blogs I follow in a supercool layout (Flipboard for all iPadders out there, crazy good). Of course I read my SMTP reports on it (and can therefore enjoy G-man’s reports even more than on my laptop) and Harvard Business Review articles, sports pages etc..

    Surfing the web is much better and everything about it is so good. I have a couple of apps I use to check indices, commodities etc. and they update almost in real-time. I don’t have to start up my laptop if I only want to look up something quickly. This sucker has 10 hours usage time and crazy low standby battery drain, which means it is always only one click away.

    Ramblin’ on as Zeppelin said.

    Sorry for the off-topic… πŸ™‚

  110. Veronica

    N1tro,I don’t think you want to follow my system right now, as it has had 8 straight winning trades. Historically it is 65% winners so it needs to reset with a few losers so I’m looking to go “old turkey” once Gary thinks the bottom is in.The system will rock again as we move into THE parabolic top the next several years. The monthly chart looks very informative as the 13 period MA and the uptrend line are both at about 1450.00.

  111. n1tro


    I’ve used the iphone/ipad and most new electronics when they first come out. My point is other than you not having to not boot up your laptop, you use the ipad for surfing blogs ie. the internet

    Take away your ipad for a week and I’m sure you will survive. Take away your smartphone and you are pretty much dead in the water.

    For me, a must have item has to be able to replace my laptop and the important things I do with it. So far I can’t find a tablet, ipad or android that is capable of running my trading platform while I’m on the run.

  112. n1tro


    I meant confirm with us the buy signal when Gary says the bottom is in.

    With Gary’s bottom calling skills and your unemotional system riding the bull with stops, millions can be made.

  113. Dubbelito

    I would survive perfectly well without my smartphone as well. I can survive without all my nifty gadgets, but that doesn’t make them less useful.

    Thank goodness there is a difference in opinion though!

  114. Dubbelito

    another thing is the interactivity for my kids are simply unbeatable on the iPad. I have a two-year old who now knows how to start it, swipe it to switch page and start her educational apps.
    Super cool.

  115. DP

    Ouch .. 9 points MA forward 9 points — that’s cruel πŸ™‚

    I’ve see things like that performed by Linda Raschke with baby grails.

  116. n1tro


    I’m on the fence if my kids (when I have any) are able to know how use the ipad or any mac products with ease. No offense to any apple lovers but their products are marketed (very well) for the “masses” and we know what the saying is about the “masses”.

    I do agree on how useful the ipad is when used in the educational settings ie. medical students using it to view videos and interactive apps for learning

    There are just too many people toting an ipad around as some kind of status symbol (at my office anyways) and all they do with it is jot notes. These people are considered “tech geeks” LOL

  117. DP

    Danno —

    Do you mean hedged by options spreads?

    I’m asking ’cause general opinion in here is that hedging is the privilege of big guys who are the market themselves.

  118. Danno


    I can only speak for myself but I do know that a lot of people do what I do. For example, everyone and their dog knew gold could suffer a serious bout of profit taking at ANY moment. But if gold could have hung in there another week or two silver looked like it was going to make a run at its ATH. I wanted a piece of that, but I knew it was risky. So I loaded up on silver, then added a 10% hedge via puts. Then I went back to bed.

  119. NJ

    TZ: Good Luck with your trades and thanks for sharing your insights.

    Your comments on analyzing your own behaviour / emotions are priceless!

  120. jeff

    Homestake during great depression went up in price because of their profits. For most businesses, profits were squeezed between falling costs (oil and sticky wages, etc) and the falling end price. Whereas homestake had a constant end price (gold pegged by FDR) and falling costs. If we get inflation, than miners can do well but so can most businesses with rising price and rising costs.

  121. SF Giants Fan


    I never owned an apple product before I bought an iPad. Believe me all those people walking around with iPads are not for status symbol. iPads are great. I Never (rarely) use my pc or laptop anymore. Ipads are Fast, light, easy and no more blue screens of death…

  122. Shalom Bernanke


    Thanks for the chart. One interesting note is that the index of 30 miners (like a GDX or GDXJ), although performing well through the Depression, still under performed even low grade mines. This is one reason I’m picking up individual names and not the etfs.

    We’ll see how it shakes out, but I continue to look for opportunities to add. Might even do some nibbling today (late morning).

    Once people realize the GLD and SLV etfs are not the place to be fo the remainder of the bull, miners should get some attention. After all, nobody can deny they actually have the metal.

    Here’s a news article I found today while looking at GLD:


    I had to chuckle to myself that a government organization now warns people not to buy miners. Where were they in May?

    The clincher in the news release is their suggestion that even the good miners will hurt you!

    I laughed when I first read it, and I’m laughing again as I type. πŸ™‚

  123. DP


    Well, having 10% puts as a protection does not really protects your portfolio in the case of current gold crush, I guess.

    Is it right?

    Your input is highly appreciated.

  124. Gary

    I’m sure you will choose not to believe me but the reason you made little to no money for one is that you take low percentage trades, for instance, trying to catch every last penny of the parabolic move.

    Now you are trying to catch countertrend bounces in a D-Wave collapse. But the biggest problem is that you are too leveraged. That forces your stops to be too close, so they get hit often even though you have the correct trade on.

    The two trends gold up, stocks down have obviously reversed. Countertrend rallies in the stock market are usually very profitable. You could probably even use some leverage as it’s unlikely that the trade is going to meaningfully reverse this early in intermediate cycle.

    So instead of trying to catch a countertrend trade in gold that requires absolutely perfect timing both on entry and exit you could just enter a long position in the market then set still for 4 to 8 weeks.

  125. Shalom Bernanke

    Here’s how I see it. Even if gold drops to $1200, it won’t take more than a month or two for people to realize miners are still making loads of cash at $1200 gold.

    That’s what could drive the next leg up in miners even if we have continued weakness short term. And if the metals turn higher like they eventually should, look out! (especially if they are already leading, cuz everybody wants what’s hot)

    It’ll take some time, but I’m patient.

  126. Shalom Bernanke

    Read my last post and it’s not written well, so this is to clarify.

    If gold drops all the way to $1200 but miners have begun strengthening prior to gold’s bottoming, then when gold starts to rally again (from my hypothetical $1200/oz), the money will flow into miners as they have already begun to lead.

    Just a thought.

  127. Feel

    I will be covering my 1,500 GLD short into the opening dump. My target of 169 has been reached in premarket. I was expecting it yesterday AH.

    I expect a bounce to follow.

  128. Gary

    You are exactly right. Silver was the place to be during most of this C wave. The end came like they always do with a parabolic move in gold.

    The next leg up in precious metals will be the playground of miners.

  129. DP

    Veronica —

    Thanks for your sharing. You are so rear guest in this blog and anyone is awaiting your appearance anxiously, I guess.

    Without going into details of your proprietary system, I guess that it’s a trend-following system, back-tested for win/loss ratio, max draw-down etc. for zillions years back using Easy Language, parameters optimization etc.

    My question is, after doing all this stuff, do you really have an advantage over Gary approach?

    Yes, your system probably has better draw-downs, but you have to trade more often, causing extra overhead in commissions and slippage.

    I am just curious if more sophisticated and obviously busy trader like you has real advantage.

    The reason is I sort of went your path and found that Gary approach is more reasonable.

    Thank you for sharing again.

  130. ALEX


    I too have been invested in ( and Trading) Miners since they bottomed in Mid June.

    I keep pointing out that if we look at EGO and AUY and Randgold — they are at highs while the mkts are bouncing around a smashed down sell off

    I want to show you something interesting that goes along with what you said ( about miners raking in dough at $1200)and Miners performing well even if Gold has topped.(and Gary agreed miners could do well)

    I will post in a minute/gotta go search for my charts

  131. Danno

    As options are leveraged instruments, a sharp fall in my long position (ETF shares) would result in an explosion in my options
    ‘short’ position. It is beginning to happen already, but I would need an even deeper decline to really make out. I currently hold Sept SLV puts but will be ‘rolling them out’ (selling them) and buying Oct SLV puts. Sept is too risky with only a few weeks till expiration.

  132. DP

    Danno —

    You sharing of real-time experience is precious.

    Please keep us posted about how the situation unfolds.

  133. ALEX

    I am Using the OIL topping in 2008 ( $WTIC and $OIX)in May and June and looked at how oil stocks kept running up 30 to 50% higher AFTER oil topped, into JULY.

    I could see the same w/ Gold topping and Miners gaining, because Miners look set up to move higher.

    $WTIC went sideways all of JUNE

    $OIX = PEAKED IN MAY…sold off to the 50sma–and then went sideways ALL OF JUNE…then crash.


    OIL STOCKS Like PQ gained 30% IN JUNE


    CHK went $50 to $70 IN JUNE (CHK had sold off from $57 to $50 to its 50sma in may…then took off( I wrote 20sma on chart )


    SD went $50 to $70 in June


    SO–all of these were moving up off their 20sma and made great gains WHILE OIL ALREADY PEAKED IN MAY and went sideways all of June…so it matches that Gold could peak FIRST, GO SIDEWAYS OR DOUBLE TOP…YET Miners move up (off their 20sma) and make great gains!

    TIME WILL TELL -I’m still w/ Miners too

  134. Shalom Bernanke

    Interesting stuff, much appreciated.

    I’m in there with you, but am still hoping for some lower prices so I can get all my money to work. I keep nibbling, but wait patiently for the day I can add 50% to each position and raise total account risk to 10 or 11% which is very aggressive for me.

    I’ve seen many people selling miners because they anticipated a pullback in gold, which has now started, and because miners also weren’t keeping up with the metal when it was rising. I keep nibbling to keep focused that I should only be thinking buy and how much, it keeps the thought of selling entirely out of mind. πŸ™‚

  135. ALEX

    I currently own EXK, RIC, AUQ

    and am trading other positions along with the regular mkts. Trading PCX, JVA, MOBI, REDF, YOKU etc etc etc

    I was looking for RIC to break out 2 wks ago $ added …it did and seems to be retesting this area now ( I dont like the heavy volume back down , but I own from June and recent buys, so not bad so far)


    And obviously, the volume here indicates Large Buying Ineterst


    Best wishes!! Off to the MKTS B of A got a “buffet blessing” today-wow

  136. Silverhound

    I’m still searching for some charts that show what happened with the miners during the market crash in the 1970’s. There was no gold standard then and the world was in the middle of a commodities bull. Sounds too familiar not to check it out.

    Interesting spotting with the oil stocks. A similar thing happened with gold miners after the 1980 gold bubble burst. The high of the gold price and the level gold pulled back to (~$400) after the peak was enough to increase half year profits and everyone wanted miners. Similar to what SB is expecting at the bottom of the D wave.

  137. Dan

    Although I think golds going lower, covered a third of my position for now. Up 15% over 3 days dont want to get too greedy.

  138. ALEX


    I wasnt familiar with what had happened in the 80’s bubble, thanks.

    I am looking at Miners charts now ( quite a few, not all) and they are NOT acting like Gold just dropped $200 and threatening to fall apart further.

    These charts are showing good buying interest and strength even now. I am impressed with AUY and EGO , etc breaking out to new highs on 6 month charts and holding up well.

  139. ALEX


    I am doing both. I have been of the opinion that Miners bottomed in Mid june and dove in ( and still hold some positions, and I’ve traded other positions in Miners).

    I also have been looking for what looks like good set ups and % -gainers after major sell offs…but I will say that with the Fed speaking ( maybe disappointing tomorrow) I dont know if I want to hold long positions into Fri afternoon.

  140. paul

    What about todays action in the miners (GDX), is it significant (going up again)? miners show strenght while gold keeps coming down…

  141. ALEX


    Are you familiar with GRS from a yr ago? That is the same company. It was called Gammon Gold I believe. I am not remembering exactly what happened…if they got bought out or merged with another miner.

    It shows up on http://www.stockcharts.com for yrs

  142. St. Deluise

    today’s lesson: always sell such an epic gap fill such was what happened today in SPY.

    i mean if you’re there watching it happen you may as well jump back in 15 minutes later at marginally cheaper prices.

    especially considering this apple fiasco.. which is not normalizing as quickly as i expected it might. maybe the QQQ’s will lead AAPL this time (for once!)

  143. fat boy

    well sold my October gld puts at 4.0
    gambling in a bull market not that clever really but it was only a small percentage and worked out
    so mostly cash again a little qqq
    Looking forward to being back in miners trades in a while at the bottom of the D
    good luck all

  144. paul

    Yes GRS was Gammon Gold, I didnt know something happended to them. Anyone else knows?
    Is it possible to see past charts somewhere? Stockcharts doesnt know GRS anymore…

  145. Hack

    Maybe the low has been put into gold – with the hurricane, Jackson Hole and Indian wedding month coming up…looks strong…

  146. St. Deluise

    in other news the volume in the dollar is pointing to it breakout out of 75.41 today. curious to see how stocks are going to manage a dollar rally.

  147. ver

    I was hoping for GDX to tag the 200 day SMA for an entry. I also hope miners don’t break out from here.

    In other news, the dollar looks like it’s powering through the 10 day SMA after bouncing up against it for weeks.

  148. Shalom Bernanke

    I don’t mind sitting with miners while they meander, but I can’t stand the thought of sitting in any more confetti than I have to while I get positioned. πŸ™‚

  149. ver

    SB: Thanks, agreed. That was my plan. Only curveball would be if gold makes a bounce, even without new highs, that pulls along the miners and leaves us buying into higher lows as gold finishes correcting. Lower probability but the miners do seem to be behaving well.

  150. Gary

    We’ve had 2 months. Just curious how long does it take you to get positioned or do you just have an income stream that you are constantly investing?

  151. Danno

    Thanks. I played it safe and sold my insurance Sept SLV puts and ‘rolled them out’ one month (bought Oct SLV puts). Gold is clearly going lower. Now that Gary called the top I think everything else he’s said about gold and silver will be in play. Silver is dancing around its Bollinger Band midline as if that is going to be some kind of support, but I’m not buying it. If gold heads lower it will drag silver down too at least to some degree. With this in mind, as it is clear silver is going no where for a while, I padded my account by selling another far out of the money Sept covered call on AGQ. The premiums are so high on that ETF just one call added +2% to my balance and I’m certain it will expire worthless.

  152. Shalom Bernanke


    No income stream, but I realized the miners could get smacked (partly because you weren’t with the program :))

    I bought my biggest chunk into that second wave down (early June), since then not putting in nearly as much per purchase until I either get a monster puke out lower OR we get through Sept.

    When I say I’m nibbling, I’m typically adding only 2% of my account values to the bigger chunk I already own, while hunting for my next spot to take in a decent stake (say 20% of investable assets)

    I typically don’t calculate my purchases as a % of portfolio (doing it for others here b/c that is how most here do it), but rather the amount of total risk my portfolio has in a possible downturn. If I can work into them properly, it’s entirely possible I’d even get to using margin, but with same overall portfolio risk.

    I would not be surprised if I end up 130% invested, but still with only 10% portfolio risk if things work out and I can add next 2 big chunks AFTER having a cushion. That’s the only way I can get to 130%.

    Hope that didn’t confuse more than it explained. Bottom line, I focus NOT on what is invested, but what % risk I have to portfolio, given expected volatility.

    Right now I’m risking 5% of my assets, but my accounts are roughly 1/3 invested.

  153. Shalom Bernanke

    If we get a significant puke lower, and into Sept especially, I’ll raise my total risk to 10% based on the volatility of the issues I’m trading. (the average ranges or ATR)

    A 10% hit to my assets is the most I’m comfortable with, before I have to look at another idea.

  154. Peter

    Gann, hope you dont mind answering a quick question. So youtook a GLD short at the 20SMA , and covered at arond 168.50? How did you play the short ? PUTs or you just flat our shorted GLD ? i assume you had a stop loss a few points(pennies) above the 20sma ? Thanks for your comments.

  155. Silverhound

    An interesting article here on gold miners. I’m not sure how accurate he is but he raises some good points.

    Quote:-“…gold mining stocks are the only market sector that exhibits a long term inverse correlation with the broader stock market…..during secular contractions, gold and gold mining stocks are a much better investment than the broad stock market. Given that secular contractions historically last between 16 to 25 years, this is likely to remain the case for a good while yet…….”

    Quote :-“Note here that in the latter half of the 1970’s gold bull market, it also took a while before gold stocks finally reflected the higher profit margins provided by the rise in the gold price (holders of gold stocks had to go through a frustrating period of underperformance from mid 1976 to roughly mid 1978, while the gold price rose strongly)”

    Now here is my input and this is pure speculation on my part. The chart below shows the DJIA during the 1970’s and I’ve marked the top’s and bottoms as they occurred since 2000. That would put us on the decline from 1976 into 1978 which would line up with a 2012 low in the DJIA. This also suggests a mild 50% to 61.8% retrace in stocks with Ben putting a floor under the market? If what he suggests in the 2nd paragraph above about miners languishing gold until 1978, we may have to wait until the 2012 low before we see a substantial rally in the miners.

    DJIA 1970’s Vs 2011

  156. Gann360


    i used the Tag OF THE 20sma on the GLD , and Started a Position in ZSL

    Than Once ZSL fell and Backtested Yesterdays close i figured it would hold Support, So i sold for a Quick 22 cents on 15k Shares quick profit around $3100

    Over all the Pattern was still within a Bullflag, so as long as the Big Green Candle Held the Pullback on ZSL 10 Min, i figured the Bull flag could playout to new high”s,,,,,But, i did not Play AGQ for the pop on SLV

    The Bull flag did playout afterall

    i now have no positions

    i know it sounds a little complicated ,and you might ask Why didn’t you just short GLD….i was thinking i would do better with ZSL

  157. Gary

    Something is definitely going on with miners. Perhaps gold will make another stab at $2000 before this is over.

    There was a fakeout before the top of the oil parabola now that I recall.

  158. Gann360

    Oh peter one other note:

    i also took the short cause short tern 10 min chart the Metals were a little over bought ,and backtesting a channel break .

    And on the 10 Min GLD, THE Tag of the 20 sma was on a Doji Candle

    so there was alot of different information which i used ,in a short Period of time,,,.to take what i believed to be a high % Scalp

  159. MrMiyagi

    Sold my gold puts, decent profit.
    I need to stop sleeping in so much, could have gotten a much better price this morning.

    Too busy with the renos to concentrate here daily, too tired to get up early.

  160. William Wallace

    Were seeing that rebound in gold off the 30sma that I mentioned yesterday, look for a backtest of the 10sma, before possibly rolling over again and heading down to the 50sma

  161. Poly

    Gann, your 7.37am post and chart is clearly showing we’re entering and printing a DCL. We just need to wait it out to confirm the daily cycle.

    At this point, this isn’t a broken parabola (I’m not for a second suggesting it will not be) and if we can hold the line here and print a DCL, the technical damage will be manageable.

    That would leave this IT cycle on week 8, some 2 to 3 plus months from a major ICL.

    Obviously many scenarios remain, but we should not focus on only one. As this first daily cycle was so powerful, there is a school of thought that suggests this IT cycle has topped and so with many weeks remaining, this will unfold as a failed IT cycle and a Gary D-Wave. I would say this has a decent to high probability of unfolding, probably better than 50%.

    However if we can escape with minimal technical damage, a base could form which could allow for 2-3 more powerful daily cycles, that on the high side, send gold to $2,220-$2,400 by late fall. This has lower probabilities, but should not be discounted as this would present a major opportunity. Don’t forget, this is now a mature bull market and can easily shock to the high side. We also have worldwide macro and geopolitical headwinds that could fuel gold. Not to mention an unpredictable FED.

    For now, we should soon get some positive price action from a new daily cycle, maybe it tests the all times highs too.

    Back to the beach for me, family vacation. Excuse the iPhone errors.

  162. Silverhound


    I found a chart showing what we were discussing earlier. This shows how the miners held their price for a few months after the gold bubble peaked in 1980 and then went on to make higher prices for a few years.

    Gold vs Miners 1974 to 1984

    Note the gold chart uses a log scale.

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