84 thoughts on “PORTFOLIO CHANGE

  1. Felix

    Mr. M.,

    “I am not here for Gary to hold my hand, wipe my … and tell me when and what to buy and sell.”

    A common theme from traders who post here; yet that is what SMTP purports to do in fact, and it also happens live occasionally. It has also been suggested that maintaining an ideal portfolio is a problem, because it gives exactly those signals you yourself are not in need of.

  2. Mr. T

    I recommend people read Market Wizards: Interview with Top Traders and you will stop complaining about Gary. He’s an excellent trader, turns on a dime (which is a key character trait), and doesn’t bet big. Read that book, and you will find Gary is extremely well balanced, and a great trader, and we are all lucky to get his time and thoughts.

    Gary, if possible, I would suggest you block those that seriously detract from the overall value of this blog. You don’t need to do this for the money…

    I pity the fool who knocks Gary… (had to say it)

  3. MrMiyagi

    Felix,
    I understand what you are saying. I am only talking for myself as I don’t control anyone else.
    Admittedly though, Gary’s suggestions have been fruitful to many.

  4. Avann

    Felix … I agree … but I would be very curious to see how many subs actually do in fact create a portfolio exactly like the model.
    I sure as hell do not.
    It’s a good guide but that’s it … and Gary very frequently comments that each individual should trade based on his/her own style and personality … not too mention age and financial status.

  5. Vonda

    You’re right, Poly.

    You think this bounce is as good as it’s going to get? I have some LLY I’d like to hang onto until ex-dividend on the 11th.

  6. High 5

    ckpc

    Thank you so much, I feel like most here consider me to be an irritant. I can’t seem to stop posting that which I believe is interesting and maybe even helpful to some who search for deeper answers in these interesting times.

    I sometimes think many here are afraid of the red pills, not that I can administer them. Just in general. The drive for money is what makes us take the blue pills.

    Ironically, I believe, it’s the drive for money that will end in such miserable squalor for the lucky. Those who seek deeper meaning, rather than riches, will receive riches, through understanding.

    ……………………………….

    Trinity: I know why you’re here, Neo. I know what you’ve been doing… why you hardly sleep, why you live alone, and why night after night, you sit by your computer. You’re looking for him. I know because I was once looking for the same thing. And when he found me, he told me I wasn’t really looking for him. I was looking for an answer. It’s the question that drives us, Neo. It’s the question that brought you here. You know the question, just as I did.
    Neo: What is the Matrix?
    Trinity: The answer is out there, Neo, and it’s looking for you, and it will find you if you want it to.

  7. Felix

    High,

    I love The Matrix. You are five-by-five, looking for the meaning of life is great, don’t know if a traders’ blog is going to do much for you though

  8. Poly

    Vonda, I have no meaningful opinion on equities right now, except to say that I believe in a month from now, they will either be much lower or higher. I’m out until we get some clarity.

  9. thedocument

    I also recommend the Market Wizards book. It may be the most important book an aspiring trader can own. I first picked it up about 10 years ago, and I still re-read it at least once a year.

  10. Adam

    You’re expecting the dollar cycle to roll over and enter its final leg down & take out the May low… and you’re selling your tiny gold position?

  11. Felix

    Abc – then search that site for “bearish reversal candle” for detailed explanation. If the body remains red, the current price (later, the close) is lower than the opening price.

  12. High 5

    Felix

    I don’t consider Garys’ blog to be a traders but a cycles blog. So I’m here because, knowing that cycles are an important force in the universe, I wish to understand their value in bull markets.

    As for looking for the meaning of life? I’m not looking for that here.

  13. Gary

    Adam,
    I will if the reversal holds into the close.

    I unlike you, am not not making any assumptions on the dollar as of yet. If it is breaking down then yes I will be ready to get heavily invested.

    If the dollar is rallying hard then I’m going to respect the possibility that we may have put in the C wave top right here, especially considering the huge divergence in mining stocks.

    There are a lot of people on this blog that will lose big if this turns out to be a C wave top. I’m not going to be one of them.

    Like I keep telling people this boils down to the dollar.

  14. High 5

    Some more tidbits from timesofgold.com. Part of a very informative piece on buying physical gold and silver:

    Bullion is the most gold or silver for the least dollars. The manufacture of a coin has greater costs associated with it than the manufacture of a bullion bar. Coins reflect this increased cost of manufacture and are more expensive per ounce than bullion.

    The great advantage of bullion coins is that you can carry them in a purse mixed up with junk government coins and you can walk straight past a security screening at an airport etc. I have done this on many occasions in many countries. The same is not true of bullion. I was pulled up in Europe last year because of 2 _ 1 oz bullion bars in my wallet. They came up on the scanner.

    I showed them to the security guard and she asked me what they were. I told her it was gold and she lost interest and waved me through. That is not always the case. Some countries allow gold to be freely carried across the borders, some don’t. Be sure that in the future most countries will not allow it.

    If you are planning on carrying your gold, then buy coins. If you are planning on burying your gold/silver in the backyard then buy bullion. I suggest a mixture, but as long as you understand the merits of both then that is a personal decision based on your own predicted circumstances. Gold coins usually, but not always, have a copper content to add to their toughness. A 1 oz Krugerrand will have exactly 1 oz of gold in it, but will weigh slightly more (1.0909 troy ounces) because of the copper content. A Canadian Maple on the other hand is pure gold and therefore weighs 1 troy oz. Both coins are equally valuable and will usually purchase an equal amount of legal tender.

  15. Adam

    Gary,

    I gotcha. I’m thinking that we’re just about done w/ this market correction. We’re in the timing band for a cycle low any day now on the SPX. When we rally out of it, that should beat the dollar down pretty good. If someone would have told me the swan dive stocks were about to take two weeks ago, I would have expected expected the dollar to rally much harder over the past two weeks. It’s barely budged.

  16. Poly

    Gary,

    The Swiss, Yen, (most Asian) Aussie, NZ, CAD, Real (list goes on) currencies all violated their 3yr low set in April.
    Of course the collapsing Euro/Pound have not, which has held the Index from collapsing again.

    Do you place any weight in these? or do you only care about the Euro weighted Index?

  17. Adam

    Gary,

    For the record, I am not trying to explain why you are wrong by any means. I can imagine you’re a little defensive given the comments of some. Just trying to figure out what I want to do for myself and getting your two cents.

  18. DG

    If the Dow closes at a marginal new low (down 10 or less?) I will get a buy. It’s been a while, so to refresh: the buys are 80%+ accurate having been tested by sentimentrader back to 1980. I will go all-in, given the smash we have had and today;[‘s reversal. We will really 1% within 3-4 days (I bet 200 on the Dow tomorrow, actually).

    I will not be able to post at the bell as I will be busy. I will try to post at about 3:50 NY time.

  19. DG

    I posted this in the other string right before Gary’s most recent post. I did want people to seer this though, so am reposting here. It may be helpful to or resonate with some subscribers…?

    Look: Every trader/investor needs to take responsibility for his own decisions. I have been doing this longer than most of you have been alive. I have found “guru” after “guru” who had “the answer.” And you know what? Not one of them did. It started for me with Joe Granville over 30 years ago. Now I understand that each guy has weaknesses and, as a separate point, will be wrong sometimes. So what? You look at everything you think is important and weight them appropriately based on YOUR analysis. If you overweight Gary in an area where he has demonstrated a trading-style bias (yes every human being has biases and blind spots) that’s YOUR decision not his. He is great at certain things. That’s where I use my subscription. I am probably a better day-to-day trader than he is. Why the hell would I follow his advice there? And if you are not a good trader then YOU have work today. Relying on him to do the work for you will not help you in the long run. This is a tough game. He cannot swing the bat for you, but he can show you how to stand, how to swing, etc. Crying about being light for this move will only damage your progress as a trader. What did YOU do wrong? What do you need to learn? What are your weaknesses and how do you plan to overcome/compensate for them?

    Forgive the rant, but Gary bashing for getting out early is absolutely ridiculous from my perspective. He even told you he’d get out early after the AGQ debacle. What’s the surprise here? Alex, Poly and a number of others stayed long and posted they did. YOU chose whom to follow, right? [this is not written to anyone in particular, BTW] O.K.—enough—sorry if this was too long.

  20. Gary

    I want everyone to remember this, and remember it good.

    Because when we do get the final top, assuming this isn’t it, I’m going to be early again. I’m going to avoid getting caught in the D-wave at all costs.

    So the first sign of this belly aching and Monday morning quarter backing and I’m going to turn the blog comments off.

    This kind of crap is just too much distraction for me. It makes it hard for me to concentrate on what is happening.

  21. Bill

    Gary, glad you have crystal balls, because I don’t have a clue as to what’s going on!

    Some of the base mining stocks look to be bottoming – CLF, AA. But w/the S&P breaking down w/that huge H&S pattern, it all looks like thin ice.

    Can’t wait to get some big decisive down days in GLD, SLV and GDX, and that big fat cycle low.

    Glad you’re eye is on the ball; gives me more time to ride. 😉

  22. pimaCanyon

    Gary,

    Key reversal where? in GLD, gold futures, the dollar?

    I don’t see a key reversal in any of those:

    After an up-trend:

    1) The Open must be above yesterday’s Close,
    2) The day must make a new High, and
    3) The Close must be below yesterday’s Low.

  23. JaketheFake

    Gary,
    In your portfolio change statement, you say If Key Reversal Holds into the Close, you will close out the remaining position. What do you mean “Key Reversal”? I looked at the other posts and cannot find anything referring to that.

  24. Gary

    I will post 10 minutes before the close if the portfolio change activated. If gold stays at this current level then it will activate.

  25. Gary

    I will post 10 minutes before the close if the portfolio change activated. If gold stays at this current level then it will activate.

  26. High 5

    ddn3f

    The idea was formalized by Irving Fisher in 1896. It’s a real eye opener for anyone who doesn’t understand the basics of money/gold.

    Yes, I’ve been reading Another, FOA, and FOFOA for years now 😉

  27. MrMiyagi

    Don’t turn off the blog Gary, just ignore what annoys you, give Toby a treat and do what you do.
    Of all people here, we only know 2 identities: Doc and Gary.
    And John Townsend but I don’t know his profile name.
    The rest of us are ALL anonymous. You may know a bit about each other but otherwise you couldn’t find me if I stood behind you in the grocery store.

  28. youks

    Please don’t turn off the comments! 95% of the comments are invaluable to us non-subscribers, especially yours Gary (duh). Please just ignore the complainers and trolls, don’t let them get to you.

  29. sophia

    Thanks Vonda for the messages… I am telling you, this blog is full of great peoole, let’s hooe the grumpy people disappear!

  30. Bill

    I’m sitting on my hands, wondering what gold is doing here – basting before another surge up, or pausing before plunging…

  31. Hack

    I would appreciate a subscriber forum. That way we keep the chatter down to value added comments and we could express our opinions in a more professional manner.

  32. pimaCanyon

    Gary,

    You wrote “I will post 10 minutes before the close if the portfolio change activated. If gold stays at this current level then it will activate.”

    We do not have a Key Reversal in gold futures or GLD. In order to get a Key Reversal, today’s close needs to be BELOW yesterday’s low. Yesterday’s low on GLD was 158.97. GLD is currently trading at 162.08. We are nowhere near yesterday’s low!

  33. ddn3f

    high 5,

    FOFOA believes gold will go high and stay high (aka sustained orbit), but says silver will at some point break away from the true monetary metal and go down while silver goes down. Central banks hold gold, but not silver. What are your thoughts on that endgame?

  34. Clarkatroid

    Gary, why not make the blog for subs only.

    I also think you should do something about banning certain people, or at least moderating negative and unconstructive comments, otherwise at some point it will get to you, your only human( I think ) 🙂

  35. sophia

    Please GARY, please do not turn the blog off!
    It is such a valuable addition to your website!
    Just don’t answer the stupid comments and when you get frustrated by stupid people, go round the block with Toby and clear your head. I am glad to have found your blog, unvvaluable info

  36. jeff

    Hopefully the blog is not turned off….everyone will be punished for the offence caused by a few annoying bickers.

  37. Silverhound

    Sophia and atease both used the word “Whiner”….classic lol 🙂

    For those that might consider themselves whiners……if you’ve had any real trading experience you would realise that nobody catches every move and nobody catches 100% of every move they take. If you find yourself sitting on the sidelines watching a missed move there will always be another trade and more importantly, you haven’t lost any capital. If you learn the art of patience the market will present you with another gift.

    In December gold was at 1430, by January it gave you the gift of 1320. In April gold was at 1580, by May through June it gave you the gift of 1480 three times. There will be plenty more ahead.

    Do yourselves a favour and learn the art of patience, learn to take the gifts when they are offered and learn to keep your frustations to yourselves like everybody else.

  38. High 5

    ddn3f

    “FOFOA believes gold will go high and stay high (aka sustained orbit), but says silver will at some point break away from the true monetary metal and go down while silver goes down. Central banks hold gold, but not silver. What are your thoughts on that endgame?”

    This is probably the most important issue PM investors must have an opinion on. Getting it wrong could potentially do violent damage to your wealth.

    If we experience a repeat of 1980 you will have hopefully exchanged your metals for paper near the top of the bubble. If however this is a paper bubble then the exchange of metal for paper will have been a dire mistake which will result in your near total impoverishment.

    I’m reserving judgement but presently lean heavily toward the latter sentiment. I realize that new fiat schemes would then be introduced and it is possible we are on a fractal cycle which will increase into the next higher dimension, a global fiat currency (gasp !!!).

    But I believe that gold will, if global succeeds…or any other new fiat, buy you multiples more of fiat currency than will the ass wipe called Federal Reserve Notes or any other present fiat currency.

    As for silver I view it as a damn good speculation. Silvers stock to flow ratio is probably fine, huge amounts in China because their monetary system was based on silver, but it doesn’t equal gold in so many ways.

    I could imagine a competition for world reserve status between gold (Anglo American empire) and silver (Chinese Empire).

  39. darkstarsky

    I have never left a comment on this blog but I do follow the this blog (and of course as a subscriber to SMT, the subscription site as well) and try to READ the blog every day. The information is extremely informative to novice investors like myself. Please Gary do not turn off the blog…if anything, make it a requirement that someone is a subscriber in order to post a comment. Thanks.

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