240 thoughts on “POSSIBLE PORTFOLIO CHANGE”

  2. abc

    @Michael (Hulk)

    Thanks for explanation (futures vs. stocks).

    However I still don’t know what SoS and BoW exactly mean;) Could you clarify?

  3. Feel

    From WSJ:

    Buying on Weakness –

    Among stocks that are down today, these have the largest inflow of money. Figures are updated every 15 minutes between 9:50 a.m. and 5:45 p.m., eastern time. Money flows are calculated as the dollar value of composite uptick trades minus the dollar value of downtick trades. The up/down ratio reflects the value of uptick trades relative to the value of downtick trades. Money flow, uptick and downtick volume are in millions of US dollars. Percent change is calculated from the prior day 4 p.m., eastern time, closing price.

    Selling on Strength –

    Among stocks that are up today, these have the largest outflow of money. Figures are updated every 15 minutes between 9:50 a.m. and 5:45 p.m., eastern time Money flows are calculated as the dollar value of composite uptick trades minus the dollar value of downtick trades. The up/down ratio reflects the value of uptick trades relative to the value of downtick trades. Money flow, uptick and downtick volume are in millions of US dollars. Percent change is calculated from the prior day 4 p.m., eastern time, closing price.

  12. St. Deluise

    yeah imma stay long here

    never really watched the AH time&sales tick by on a large index like SPY. some fool (err, bank) just bought 2+ million at 119.59 @16:16:01.

  18. Tim and Jeanene

    Gold has been a terrible long term investment, trailing even treasuries. Treasuries actually performed better during the most recent mini crash.

    This massive run the past few years has only allowed gold to catch up to the return on treasuries…..

    http://www.investorsfriend.com/asset_3.jpg

    http://www.investorsfriend.com/asset_4.jpg

    http://www.investorsfriend.com/asset_8.jpg

    And the gold run has more to do with China – than the US, contrary to what many believe:

    http://pragcap.com/do-gold-prices-correlate-with-u-s-inflation/comment-page-1#comment-71265

    Stocks will be the place to hide soon since gold has had the massive run to catch up longer term to the other asset classes. for anyone who thinks it is “different” this time than has been in the past….. well, best of luck with that.

  20. Alex in Montana

    Tim and Jeanene,

    Gold prices are best correlated with negative real interest rates as have been proven for 40 years.

    Real rates are negative all over th eworld with Brazil being a notable exception.

    The Fed just announced negative real rates until 2013.

    Gold has beaten the market by a landslide for the last 11 years and that pattern is nowhere near being over.

    Check back when Dow/Gold ration is 1:1 as Gary suggests.

  22. William Wallace

    St Del,

    There was a 1,000,000 QQQ buy order AH at 53.90, which was well above the 53.28 that all the orders before and after were trading at…have any idea why?

  24. Robert

    this could be significant on the price of gold if true as has been reported today

    As Chavez Pulls Venezuela’s Gold From JP Morgan, Is The Great Scramble For Physical Starting?from zero hedge –
    In addition to the nationalization of his gold insutry, Chavez earlier also announced that he would recover virtually all gold that Venezuela hold abroad, starting with 99 tons of gold at the Bank of England. As the WSJ reported earlier, “The Bank of England recently received a request from the Venezuelan government about transferring the 99 tons of gold Venezuela holds in the bank back to Venezuela, said a person familiar with the matter. A spokesman from the Bank of England declined to comment whether Venezuela had any gold on deposit at the bank.” That’s great, but not really a gamechanger. After all the BOE should have said gold. What could well be a gamechanger is that according to an update from Bloomberg, Venezuela has gold with, you guessed it, JP Morgan, Barclays, and Bank Of Nova Scotia. As most know, JPM is one of the 5 vault banks. The fun begins if Chavez demands physical delivery of more than 10.6 tons of physical because as today’s CME update of metal depository statistics, JPM only has 338,303 ounces of registered gold in storage. Or roughly 10.6 tons. A modest deposit of this size would cause some serious white hair at JPM as the bank scrambles to find the replacement gold, which has already been pledged about 100 times across the various paper markets. Keep an eye on gold in the illiquid after hour market. The overdue scramble for delivery may be about to begin.

  25. St. Deluise

    WW, no clue but i would guess that it has to do with the amount of “slippage” that occurs when such a large order eats through the book. So it likely began at 53.28 and ate every ask to 53.90.

    I don’t put much faith into these (could be short covering as far as I know), just sort of amazed at the sheer quantity of money changing hands. Some big bets being made one way or another.

    A- definitely was a ev dip today.. Still not sure if it’s best to incorporate globex volume in this sort of analysis. If I turn on ‘extended hours’ in ES the picture becomes bullish. Without, it’s bearish. Inclined to go with including globex volume.

  27. Veronica

    Tim and Jeanine, thanks for your input but those of us here that have held from gold’s bear market lows have heard the same crap over and over. Please do us all a real favor and tell us when you have bought in size, that would be what we want to hear and real “advice” we could trade on.

  29. William Wallace

    This is what I see…
    Gold looks like it is putting in a rollover like it did beginning at the end of may…we’ll see what happens.
    Market looks no different then it did when it broke down from the H&S top in 08. Nasdaq bounced out of the IT low 200+ points within 8 days and then reversed for 36 days putting in a new low before making a 400 point bear market rally. There was no straight bear market rally out of that IT low. If things were to play out similar now, we would test 2600 area and then break down for a few weeks before putting in a new low before staging a bear market rally that would take us marginally higher then the 200 DMA.

  30. William Wallace

    If gold doesn’t break above 1800 tonight or tomorrow if the market is pulling back then I would say we will be seeing a DCL by next week. For the last two nights any attempt at popping above 1800 has failed, lets see if it can do it tonight.

  31. sophia

    W2,

    2600 on Nasdaq is 100 points higher….I know that you talked about it on Monday as well. Are you staying long or flat now?
    I am a small long again at this level, sold Monday, bought today, but not sure if it is a hot potatoe or not

  32. William Wallace

    Sophia,

    Im still long right now at a profit, but if the market is breaking down tomorrow im out. Futures are down big right now, so we will see. The dollar is up now and may push higher putting pressure on stocks and gold I would think, but who the hell knows what is going to happen here, things are real confounding at this point.

  35. gold silver troll

    I just realized that we got consumer price index, jobless claims, existing home sales, leading indicators – all coming out tomorrow

    so regardless of what the market and the USD is doing now, my guess is that the market will find a reason to rally or plunge based on these news

  36. William Wallace

    Sophia,

    That will happen, but may not be anytime soon. We are only looking for a bear market rally at this point, that may not playout for a few weeks if we see something similar to 08 action. I definitely dont want to hold for a lower low with the expectations of a serious bounce.

  38. sophia

    I am the same William.
    Made decent money thanks to Gary’s call, went out on Monday morning with a nice profit.
    Waited for a tiny correction to get back in, but now I am worried, and I don’t like it….so I will see how yhings play out tomorrow and will take appropriate measures to keep most of my profits

  41. gold silver troll

    Sofia,

    I agree…all negative sentiment today

    Its amazing how one day could reverse sentiment completely…just yesterday most were bulls and today most are doubtful and/or bearish

    there certainly seems to be a great wall of worry and we need to see if bulls can climb the wall 🙂

  51. Neo

    Sofia,

    As Gary say, when the markets don´t do what they suppose to do, we better be in the sidelines.

    The yesterday portfolio change seems to be accurate at the moment. QQQs´s are falling.

    Luck for everyone in this blog. As Gary have been said several times,our purpose is to make money.

  53. Neo

    I know everyone thought we all make more money with this trade, but markets may not give us that way.

    We all make less money, but we make money and, more important, preserve our capital for the next trade.

    We shall all of us thanks Gary for this and let him think peacefully about our next trade.

    PS: Sorry about my poor english. Surely not my best language (portuguese and french much better).

    🙂

  57. Neo

    Sophia,

    Je suis né près de Paris, j´y ai vécu jusqu´a mes 16 ans et depuis je vis au Portugal, près de Porto.

    🙂

    Et toi ?

  59. Neo

    Londres?

    Mon frère habite a Londres. Il travaille dans Sony Entertainment.

    En septembre, je vais quelques jours a Paris, en vacances.

    🙂

    Enchanté de te connaître 🙂

  64. Danno

    We can only guess, but I would not be surprised if this rally is short lived. The AAA downgrade was a really, really big deal. That has never happened in the history of the United States.

  66. Neo

    Let´s see how Gold manage after the London Fix Close.

    I sense, with all Stockastics overbought/streatched (1, 5, 10, 30 e 60 minutes and also 5 hours), we may see the start of the DCL.

    Just a thought.

  67. Danno

    It’s never different this time… until it’s different. One day the charts could be thrown out the window and all bets will be off.

  74. wolf33

    said last night on other blog—JMO
    2nd 32 days of long cycle could have a greater run than first which started 7-5 —yesterday was day 32.

  83. Danno

    Yeah, let’s see all the good honest people donate their eyeballs out to Ron Paul’s campaign only to watch him QUIT again before the race is even over, sucking dry the resources of the only people who understand what’s going on.

  86. auger

    Also, Gold futures were building a bull flag, on the daily, and broke out tuesday morning. IMHO, the bullish patterns will have to fail, before the bearish ones will work.

  88. Moneyman

    Good Call Gary!!

    I sold this morning with a nice profit..In this kind of environment its hard to make money..

    A lot of people lose money but not SMT members..

  90. Danno

    wolf33,

    Don’t put too much faith in Ron Paul. I was a delegate for him last time. We all felt betrayed. I think he may be a wolf in sheep’s clothing. And his stance on Israel is a joke.

  91. Michael

    SB,

    Thanks for the chart on Homestead… I notice, it did not really spike until after the DOW bottomed…does that not mean we have to wait for this decline to run it’s course to get the big move in miners?

  92. Keys

    Looks like the vortex began again.
    Bonds up, Dollar up, Gold up….
    If the vortex is any sign of what is to come…gold goes up, until it doesn’t, and the vortex sucks that in as way.
    As much as gold is going up, let’s not forget the reason…fear run…bonds are at par with the gains with gold….
    Silver, miners, all did poorly this month.
    I think what is throwing things off is the constant CB intervention in currency markets. Commodities are down, and I think this is a better measure of the dollar, not the index value.
    Deflation for most I guess, I just call it falling prices from stupid levels. Deflation doesn’t happen unless oil tags below 40 for me.
    The vortex will be dangerous going forward…since it acts like a black hole, and it sucks value out of everything….gold eventually will fall to the Vortex’s power.
    Weird gold went from a risk on trade, to a risk off trade.

    I think I will be taking my hedged puts off today…why? My cash equiv. on my hedged gold was at 1635…my puts got blown up twice now…so I was able to catch 50% of the move up…that being said if gold gaps down 100 overnight, it puts me at par with my 1635 level or so…so only trading surprise money anyways.

  93. Shalom Bernanke

    Michael,

    I’m not too concerned how it plays out when I keep the big picture in mind. Whether stocks make new lows or not, it’s unlikely to play out exactly the same as before.

    If we can get miners to close here or lower this week, I’ll likely begin to add again, and possibly as early as tomorrow.

  96. Michael

    SB,

    Yes, I agree that printing changes everything.. and it must be near… It is all a question of when it becomes politically feasable..perhaps Faber is right and SP 1000 is the number, hard to know for sure..I will be following your posts with great interest.. thanks again for your willingness to post…

  97. Dan

    All indicators are pointing that we’ve reached a top here unless of course were about to enter a currency crisis then this may very well be the beginning of the parabolic mania phase. Question is which one is it?

  99. Keys

    Fear run just got back on…the action in bonds is stating a story…I think we need to listen…Bonds have beaten up gold…I don’t think gold will fall from here, quite yet…we may even get a surge to 2000 shortly…nice round number! Vortex will consume gold, but I don’t think the top is in yet…of course I have been wrong all along. 🙂 Maybe I will just shut up then, and let smarter people speak..Idiot out!

  100. Moneyman

    Keys

    I agree with you about the Vortex!

    Im long the dollar now and then a lot of cash..Just waiting..

    I can see a dollar rally here until QE3 or something like that..Just w8 and see now..I know that not many share this idea but I have a stop at 73,81..

    Will not buy gold at this level..I think the vortex will take it down..:-)

    Shalom!

    Thanks for sharing some thoughts about the market..

    Take care all!

  103. Éamonn

    Shalom Bernanke, I get the feeling you are the one who is going to make the most money here. Your eyes are on the big, long term picture

  106. Shalom Bernanke

    Eamonn,

    I should do alright. Even with the turmoil my total positions are positive, helping me see clearly.

    Still, I will not likely do any buying today. Let’s see if tomorrow presents an opportunity.

  109. Danno

    I think silver is running out of gas. Just a guess of course as we can never really know. But it is acting weak even though it is up.

  114. Felix

    Strat81

    That link isn’t working, can you try again? Maybe go to bottom of chart and hit “Linkable Version” to get a working link at stockcharts.com

  116. auger

    Wolf33, would you mind posting some charts, or something? You mentioned some guy, that you subscribe to, who has an alternate cycle theory, and some sort of Person’s Pivots method, but it’s of little help if you can’t provide some sort of picture. Is this a WolfWave thing?

  119. wolf33

    i have no charts to post

    persons pivot is just another technical study–no hokem pokem

    all i have said is we could be in a 60/7o day move.—look back 32 years if you want.

    so far 65 day cycle has been on track

  122. auger

    Ok, nevermind. I know what person’s pivots are, and I know where Gold is, on a 32 year chart. Just thought you might want to share your method.

  124. wolf33

    i can not —sorry all i have said over several days is it is a possible.

    persons pivots will determin in or out for this 65 day period.

  128. Frank

    Greetings from Istanbul. They have CNBC Turk on the TV here in the lounge with Altin +32 plastered on the screen. They are interviewing gold dealers. Also, their journalists are more attractive than the NYC bunch……

    I knew it was a bullish sign when a few days ago the Swedish #1 daily SvD had a photo of gold bars covering the entire front of the business page with headline “Huge risk for crash!”. Also, the equivalent of Sweden’s Etrade had their principle analyst/spokesperson write an article last weekend that gold investors are equivalent to the English hooligans……

    Re miners, it is clear that the strong ones are up today while weaker ones are down considerably.

  133. Harry

    I think it’s clear we had a daily cycle low in gold on 8/12 (Day 29). Obviously there was no trend line break on the gold chart but there certainly was on silver. I don’t think it’d be heretical to say that cycle analysis can get a bit muddled during highly unusual parabolic moves like this. I’m going to take a small long position here on the expectation that we are now on Day 4 of a new daily cycle and probably a long ways off from the final top.

    Also, take a look at the post by Gary’s compadre John Townsend (thetsitrader.blogspot.com) about D-wave retracements. It seems that every C-wave top finishes with a long consolidation period having taken place between the 61.8% and 50% retracements. If you stretch a fibonacci to $2000 or so it puts that big 5-month consolidation (Oct ’10 – Mar ’11) right in that range.

    Like Jim Sinclair said, things will get crazy around those big round numbers. We had plenty of trouble at $1000, and I suspect that just as we couldn’t get through $50 silver the first time around we won’t get through $2000 gold this time, either. But it certainly looks like a good target for the top of this C-wave.

    I don’t care what Gary says about shorting bull markets, I’m not going to miss out on an opportunity to catch a D-wave. The average D-wave retraces 38.2% in ten days. That would imply a $450+ drop from a $2000 top. I intend to make more money on the short side in the next few weeks than I have in the last year of riding this bull.

  136. Shalom Bernanke

    Michael,

    I like the price, but am not focused primarily on levels until I feel like the general mkt slows it’s rate of decline.

    This might turn out to be the bottom on GPL, who knows, but I am not adding anything today unless the selloff in stocks gets worse. I don’t mind paying higher prices, as long as I think the selling pressure has abated.

  137. Shalom Bernanke

    Also remember that GPL is showing strength today, but was the standout weak name the last several days when other miners rallied. I feel it’s marching to it’s own tune, more than exhibiting strength.

  138. MarkF

    Danno,

    “Don’t put too much faith in Ron Paul. I was a delegate for him last time. We all felt betrayed. I think he may be a wolf in sheep’s clothing. And his stance on Israel is a joke.”

    Statements like that make you sound uninformed at best. I also doubt you were a Paul delegate. I think you are a wolf in sheep’s clothing.

  141. wolf33

    Statements like that make you sound uninformed at best. I also doubt you were a Paul delegate. I think you are a wolf in sheep’s clothing.

    is that wolf33——i agree.

  144. Strat81

    Flaunt,

    Are you referring to a trend-line type channel? The channel I was referring to is more of a mean reversion (price stretch) channel then a pure TA trend-line channel. Trend-lines and Channels are often used to suck it pure TA traders (i.e. DCL’s usually break a trendline and clear out TA long traders and suck in TA shorts), so I don’t give them too much credence.

  145. Hack

    Sold DGP – I have a feeling that I’ll be buying it back if we see a mass exodus out of the market Friday afternoon…

  146. flaunt

    strat,

    Gotcha. I understand what you’re saying about pure TA and how they’ll break trend lines slightly to suck people in. In this case it broke out of the channel, then continued upward, came back to test, and bounced. That seems like confirmation to me.

    Your chart is intriguing though. I wonder what will be the catalyst to cause a decline.

    Someone was saying yesterday that GLD SOS numbers are actually good indicators of increases in price, but does anyone have any specific dates to back that up? It’s back on today’s SOS list.

  147. Strat81

    The catalyst seems to always become obvious in hind-sight, but its seems that generally the most bullish news tends to mark the tops (from which comes the “buy the rumor sell the news” mantra). Large players need the extra liquidity provided by these bullish news events to take profits and exit there positions without marking the price down on their selling. So when you see volume spikes after extended moves it is a warning sign. After all, volume works both ways, someone is selling to all those buyers.

  148. flaunt

    I found TSI Trader’s analysis about C-Wave tops intriguing. We talked a little bit about the possibility this will be similar to 2006 where silver went into a parabolic blow off, then recovered as gold was continuing to go higher, with both making new highs as they peaked simultaneously. He says the last 3 tops peaked in this way which would imply silver has room to run as does as gold.

  150. flaunt

    Sorry, I didn’t mean to say he said the last three peaked in this way, but that the last three peaked with gold and silver making their highs simultaneously. In other words, there wasn’t gold making it’s high without silver also peaking.

  151. flaunt

    Felix, I know, and he has a short position backing that up. But I was referring to the comments where he said he thinks it could turn out like 2006.

  154. Michael

    Thanks SB,

    been watching the miners and noticed the sell off in GPL… will keep an eye on it during the remainder of the week and see how things play out..

  155. auger

    Evening star is a 3 candle pattern. With this gap up, it would be an Abandoned baby candle pattern, but only if tomorrow’s high is below the doji low.

  156. T

    So I realize that I will bastardize myself amongst all the Gary lovers here by saying this, but it needs to be said for any new subscribers. Gary may be a great person, he understands how technical charts work and is educated in the lingo. However as an advisor/prognosticator on trends interpreted from his charts, he is horrible.
    I have been following SMT for over 6 months now and in that time he has completely missed the silver exit point (lost a bundle on that one), incorrectly predicted that silver would then drop into the mid-twenties, pulled out of gold waaay too early (made a very marginal gain there), and most recently said he is 99% sure we are looking at a 6-10 week bear market rally.
    No one can get ’em all right, no doubt, but that is a poor track record for those looking to follow some educated advice. Honeslty, I think he is completely guessing just like everyone else out there. You can tell me left translated this, broken parabola that, and intermediate bottom all day long, but in the end it means nothing. All of those “indicators” have been absolutely wrong.
    As soon as I post this, thirty of Gary’s minions will lambast the post, saying “you must forge your own path” or “you’ll never make money if all you do is follow someone’s advice”. Let’s be perfectly clear. Gary charges money for access to this site. And subscribers don’t pay it to see pictures of his dog, they expect sound (and hopefully correct, even?) advice and most of all, TO MAKE MONEY from said advice.
    If that is what you are looking for here as a new subscriber, beware. If you want to learn the lingo of trading, and technical chart analysis (for what it’s worth), and interact with some experienced traders, you are in the right place.
    I am not posting this to be mean, derrogatory, or anything else. I am posting it because I sure wish someone would have posted it for me 7 months ago.

  158. Hack

    Clearly gold is in a bull run. Folks have been predicting the demise of gold since $1650, based entirely on TA and the “wave theory”. We won’t see $21 silver and we wont see $1300 gold. Just look at the strength in miners (NGD). Time to throw the charts out of the window and look at what is going on in the global market place.

  160. auger

    I won’t be throwing my charts out the window, they work just fine. Throwing your bias, out the window… now that sounds like a plan.

    Éamonn, what are you laughing at? That’s what it’s called. 😀

  161. Visitor

    Looks like 1860-1865 next target for gold. Sorry most of you missed it chasing the Q’s. Now what do you do?

    On another note, I think sugar has a chance to run here. You could play SGG at around 95 if you can get it.

    Whatever you do, stop this all in, all out nonsense.

  163. coolkevs

    Demark analysis according to Kevin Depew at minyanville.com:
    NDX qualified a break of a TDST DAILY down level yesterday, that tells us that the primary DAILY trend is confirmed negative, and we should proceed to a full TD Sequential BUY signal at lower prices from here. Unfortunately, we are only on bar 1 of 13 on the Sequential – so at least a couple more grim weeks to go… WEEKLY Down support is at 1854.43.
    SP WEEKLY TDST down support is 1071.20.
    However, as I’ve highlighted recently, Depew is showing an increasing number of individual stocks to show positive divergences, recording or soon to record WEEKLY TD Sequential 13 BUY signals. These include TGT (on bar 12), MS (on bar 11), F (on bar 11), X (on bar 12), and DHI (recorded 13 this week). Even much-loathed BAC recorded a WEEKLY 13 BUY this week, good for the next 3 months (12 weeks). We’ll see what pans out…

  164. St. Deluise

    fundamentally the case for a prolonged gold bear seems hard to fathom unless it was alongside an epic market rout, and you know everyone everywhere would salivate at that opportunity.

    technically it’s stretched as hell and every nimrod on the internet seems to think it’s a can’t lose bet here.

    i really don’t know. i do think gary’s call a long while ago about never seeing GLD 143.97 again is probably correct.

    i do still like the long market idea though, but timing this thing correctly is just not going to happen. if we see a new low i’d count that as a blessing. that said effective volume in /es today is implying today’s lod will probably fail eventually.

  165. Strat81

    T,

    All you can ask for in a trade is an “edge” and take a risk based on that edge. Even the best of edges (not including arbitrage) might give you a 60% win rate versus a 50/50 coin flip. I believe that Gary provides that edge.

  166. Hack

    Fair enough auger. Let me rephrase that by saying that I am throwing my charts out of the window – so what do your charts say about gold? My charts say that GLD is overbought and DGP is a buy.

  168. Harry

    T, if you are a subscriber, go back and read the post where Gary talks about gurus. Gary is the closest thing to an investment guru you will ever find. Nobody can be perfect. If you’ve followed the model portfolio at all in the time you’ve been following – I started around the same time you did – Gary has made an asston of cash in a time when very few others have. Your complaints are valid but I’d tone down your expectations for $200/year.

  169. Michael

    T,

    YOu stated your point eloquently and sincerely. A blog is supposed to be an open forum to express ideas, therefore you must not fear reprisal for expressing an opinion in a non-threatening manner..

  170. auger

    Hack, sorry that translated poorly. It was a general statement, to try and keep one’s bias in check. No knock on anyone, I make mistakes all the time. 🙂

    However, I posted what I thought looked like a /GC bull flag, last week, and an intraday Cup&Handle in GLD, on Monday. The measured move targets, are still in play.

  171. torero91

    T,
    Great post. No investor/trader should ever blindly follow just one person or service for their investment ideas. These markets are especially dangerous to trade right now. The internet is full of market gurus “selling” their trading ideas. You have better odds flipping a coin than trading with most of them. Caveat emptor guys and gals. Always.

  173. wolf33

    See all stories on this topic »
    Ron Paul, aka the invisible candidate
    Baltimore Sun
    A moment ago, I Googled “Ron Paul ignored by media” and came up with 9222 links. That’s a lot of stories about someone being ignored. Here’s what happened. In last weekend’s Iowa Straw Poll of GOP presidential candidates,

    give a few $ as ron has no big donors. togeter we can do it.

  181. Gary

    T,
    “TO MAKE MONEY from said advice.”

    Almost every trade we’ve made has made money. Even the late exit in silver made money if you entered when I did back in the fall.

    Not once did the model portfolio go short silver. When the market started acting poorly yesterday we exited the QQQ trade for a profit and completely sidestepped today’s decline.

    Unlike 99% of all other analysts, torreo included, I got you out in time to avoid the entire bear market move.

    We are making money in a very tough environment, what more do you want?

  182. Mr. T

    T – I have made a lot following Gary, and not sure why you haven’t. Granted the silver call was bad, but he’s going to have some bad ones. In general though, I’m up… I think a lot of people who had the discipline to follow him closely are up. In short though, these volatile times are very tough to navigate, including professionals. Frankly standing on the sidelines and watching “the car accident in slow motion” is usually the best path. I do though think diversifying advice helps, and when you see guys aligning, it can give confidence.

    One question then I have of the group; who else do you follow besides Gary and Doc (thedocument.com) that have given ones an edge?

  184. ckpc

    Thank you T, that absolutely needed to be said. I wish someone had posted that for my sake months ago.
    Truth-tellers should be welcome here, not disparaged because of blind loyalties.

    VISITOR…glad to have your input.

  185. Mr. T

    I would like to add for the record though that in regards to the silver call, I’m not sure I would have done much different…

  188. Mr. T

    Lastly, I defend Gary because his record is fact-based and indisputable. Not sure why people are arguing with his record and stating it’s very poor and his service is not worthy. Please reference statements with facts. I personally am up 50% on his input this year. That’s fucking amazing! If we went back and tracked the performance of all of his trades, I would bet they are net positive; significantly net positive.

    Does that make me a “blind follower”?! Please, someone, back up your statements with facts since I’m being accused of being an idealogue..

  189. Mr. T

    And Harry, yes, if this was an A-Team episode, there would be some serious music being played right now, and Murdoch would be on his way with some seriously armored flying machine…

    🙂

  190. Felix

    Surely gold will never top and never correct again – there’s never been a more deserving commodity to receive this special power – unless it were silver. Fantastic.

  192. The Angry Hippie

    Pulled all funds out of the general stock market in mid July thanks SMT. Made 12% on the QQQ trade with TQQQ. Exited at the close on thanks to SMT.

    Looking forward to the next call.

    Why are we still talking about the silver trade? Thats old shit. Plenty of money to be made ahead of us.

    Trying to squeeze every penny out of every trade is a dangerous game of chicken.

  193. MrMiyagi

    What would this fall be like without shorts?
    On one hand one might say “they are the cause of it”.
    On the other, if shorts don’t cover then there is a much greater freefall.

  194. Gary

    T,
    You’re upset about the late exit in silver yet you want to play chicken with a gold parabola??

    You can’t be serious!

  197. Shalom Bernanke

    Nothing says they have to be equal prices here and in Canada, as they both trade individually in different parts of the world. If they get to far out of whack I imagine somebody would arbitrage the two until they get back in line as they should be correlated over time.

  198. Pangloss

    I am sick of these stupid charlatans that clutter the comments with their criticism. If you don’t like Gary and his advice, piss off!!!

    Mr. T is 100% dead on, anybody who has followed Gary’s suggestions – and suggestions is all they are, you are responsible for your own shitty trading – from the beginning of the year has handidly outperformed the market. This is not to say that Gary is perfect, but this shit gets old…

  200. Pangloss

    BTW, @ $25 on per month or $200 per year, you are not going to find any better thoughts on the market. On top of that, the man puts up with all this crap and tries to politely address these numnuts. He may not be perfect but he is a saint.

  201. Gary

    Obviously the problem is that many people come “late” to a trade, either because they couldn’t make themselves buy when I gave the buy signal or because they subscribed after the buy signal had already been given.

    The other problem I suspect, is that most people do not follow the model portfolio. If I say gold is due for a correction I know damn well a lot of you short gold even though I’ve said 1000 times never short a bull market.

    I guarantee this happened in silver when I said a busted parabola doesn’t recover. I suspect T shorted silver heavily, again against all my warnings not to short a bull market.

    If you aren’t going to follow the model portfolio, and if you are late to trades, and if you insist on taking low probability trades, like shorting bull markets, then yes you are going to lose money.

  204. MrMiyagi

    Must be frustrating for you Gary, I know it would annoy the shit out of me.
    No one is perfect. I’d like to see the whiners’ calls and track record.
    Let me let you in on a little NOT secret; I’ve blown some calls very very big time in the past.

  205. mikezza

    is it possible that the dollar will rally from here for the next 2 weeks and then reverse down on the septmeber employment report into the three year low in the fall.

  206. Keys

    Agg back to the I told you so garbage! Hey I didn’t hear anyone here talk about the bond move, which was a safer bet and matched gold’s parabolic rise….where was the perfect analysis then? Or how about if we were all 100% gold, the only position that would have made money would have been gld….200/1600=12.5%… so all this crap is over a missed 10%. give me a break….nothing in metals is postive except for gold since the trade out, or may be flat, and we are saying missing 10% is a big deal. Bonds followed gold btw…no mention on that safer play…let’s just argue about the most risky play out there, and be bitter because we missed 10%. You could have shorted the market today and gotten and good chunk of that % today. Let’s argue about why a call wasn’t made yesterday about not shorting today. Oil tanked too…why didn’t we short that….dollar went up, hey why didn’t we load on call options. TLT blow upwards, why didn’t we buy at 108 yesterday and sell at 112 today with 200% invested….aggg I think many need a puke bucket…again I sell them real cheap! Only slightly used. 🙂

  208. Gary

    CKPC,
    We completely avoided the bear market which is better then 95% of all other analysts. We’ve made money on virtually every single trade this year.

    And you still aren’t happy? Dude what’s wrong with you?

  209. SW

    Gary, doesn’t it look like gold is about to make an island reversal? divergence in rsi and GDX, etc. I have stayed short despite your warning but I am not worried as I don’t use leverage (-:

  210. Hack

    When I said that the big players were shorting the market yesterday I was chastised (again)…Seems like there is only one person right on this forum even when they are wrong.

  211. Robert

    Mr.T,

    The one analyst that i really like is Bill Downey from Gold Trends–he combines excellent technical analysis with a common sense approach.About a month or so ago his cycle analysis was showing gold was going to correct etc, but as he says price rules and the trend was still up so he stayed in .
    He trades mostly futures but has an outstanding record
    Trades 16 — Winners 12 – Losers 2— break even 2 — total Dollar gain per ounce $373 since end of March,plus he is only $10 per month

  212. MrMiyagi

    Eamonn,
    It is coming along well, I am very very tired! My wife likes it and is helping me here and there.
    I’m putting up some of the ceiling drywall today, 12×4 pieces, good for a hernia.

  214. Gary

    SW,
    I’m not sure what an island reversal is. All I see is gold breaking out to new highs and holding above $1800. The inverse trade is back on stocks down, gold up.

    I doubt that today is the bottom for the stock market so I suspect gold will continue higher as the market continues down.

    No matter how many times I tell people not to short a bull market, they always do. Once you have lost enough money you will eventually abandon this flawed strategy.

  215. wolf33

    Silver creeping up—on a pp 4 days ago was latest. My big plays on silver HZU.TO and cef(gold and silver. There were times today when u could have bought at discount.

  217. Gary

    Hack,
    I really doubt any institutional money is aggressively shorting this market. The problem isn’t that shorts are taking down the market it’s that the bulls are too scared to buy. We just don’t have any buyers.

  218. SW

    I thought a breakaway gap down tomorrow is highly likely. Yes,I won’t go against your advice from now on. Thanks!

  220. Shalom Bernanke

    Gary,

    I appreciate your work around here and you’re still the only “newsletter” or service I ever felt was worth subscribing to. I think the model portfolio and guiding people on percentages to invest is most likely the thorn in your side.

    Your analysis is top notch. Trading calls are a whole different service you offer and that is where people get off track. They don’t understand their own risk tolerance, and then bitch which throws you off track.

    I know some here won’t like it, but if I were Gary, the only thing I’d put out would be the charts and my analysis of the cycles, leaving all other decisions to the individual. Position sizing is the single most important aspect in determining success and is different for every individual depending on risk tolerance.

    One benefit to gary is his trading will not get thrown for a loop. Gary does too much for everybody, and it leads to unwarranted disappointment.

  223. Shalom Bernanke

    I’m not doing any buying yet, but started to get interested as the general market pukes to new lows.

    I’m trying to be patient and wait until tomorrow to do some buying. 🙂

  224. Hack

    Gary;

    I relayed real time information to you on what the big players were doing yesterday afternoon. This same thing is scheduled to happen Friday afternoon if it isn’t happening already. I don’t expect you to believe a total stranger but it is food for thought…

  225. ver

    Finally seeing SPY BOW 140.41, though only in block trades, net flows are 59.50. Not encouraging enough but perhaps we’re getting close.

  226. Gary

    SB,
    Yes it was obvious in may that many subscribers were way too leveraged for their true risk tolerance. That’s why I put the model portfolio in place.

    If one simply follows the model portfolio they will rarely ever lose money. If you modify the model portfolio especially if you over leverage then yes you are going to lose money no matter how perfect my predictions are.

  228. Gary

    Hack,
    I rarely ever go through the blog posts anymore. There are simply way too many of them for me to follow. So I have no idea what you posted yesterday.

  229. deshy

    SB: I assume your shopping list for tomoro includes miners only and not the general market given your previous comments?

  231. Shalom Bernanke

    Gary,

    Yep. It’s difficult for you to trade your own money properly when people are whining, too. Perhaps you might be better off all the way around keeping your trades mostly to yourself.

    If you think something is bullish and has room to run, for example, subscribers trust that you’ll be long it yourself, which is all they really need to know.

    I’d encourage EVERY trader to study position sizing and examine what types of drawdowns they can weather but still stay in the game.

  232. ver

    SB:

    You’re slowly converting me into a fan of them miners 🙂 They’ve held their own despite the market’s vicious turns over the last two weeks, and they even seem to be itching for a breakout. If gold does make a parabolic move from here it may be the catalyst, though then again one would have hoped the last few $100 in gold would have been enough. In any event, I’m contemplating a small position here but only on a panic sell. Will be keeping an eye out for your next move.

  233. Shalom Bernanke

    deshy,

    That is correct, I’m not interested in the general market right now.

    It’s possible I don’t even do any buying, but if this continues into the morning I will probably get out my buy list.

  240. wolf33

    Gold Lion said…
    Wolf, yeah that GDX trade is the kinda lone wolf trades I make too..buy when no one else wants em.

    tell that by your handle.—off to see the wizard.

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