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ProShares AGQ (double long silver) announced a stock split 2:1
Sorry if someone already posted this.
AGQ already split. You just didn’t get the extra shares :-))
Yeah, SF. 3-for-1, the hard way.
Oh ur right. I didn’t go that far back.
In the last thread you posted:
You’re suggesting 3 straight 20 days gold daily cycles (This past one and two more). My stat’s show that would be a MAJOR outlier.”
Can you please share what Stats you are referring to? I love Stats and would be interested if you could provide some pointers on your research.
PS: In case you guys have not heard this one before: Stats are like a bikini: They reveal A LOT, but what they hide, is MOST IMP! 😀
I’m not really worried about AGQ so much as trying to figure out why ZSL hasn’t performed better yet. It’s taking some work but I’m gaining a better understanding. 7am London Fix, NAV, etc. 1x ETFs are not this flipp’n complicated and I can see why some would quickly become frustrated.
What is the deal with the . (dots)?
Sorry, the double was an iPhone accident. The goal is to subscribe to the post so all entries get emailed to us. We have to put some text there so a dot is used. It’s not like the premium site where you can subscribe without posting.
What’s your take on hold here? I think you mentioned you have been following closely since 2004 and called correctly that gold was getting tired.
The dots are there in place of ‘BEEP’. Placing a Dot enables us to get subsequent comments in email.
I think Gary was right to say the PM bottom could be in around November.
The only question is exactly how low will PM’s go between now and then. That depends on so many factors it’s very difficult to guess. I think we’ll know the bottom by the way the trading feels, prices that have been hit and the time frame.
Hold or sell just depends on your time frame. I’m not trading here. Just keeping my AGQ and waiting for the bottom, when I will dump my ZSL position and (if I have the balls) buy more AGQ or SLV.
Interesting report last night, Gary.
The way I figure, metals are the bull market and we should be long. The only question is when, but if a trader can take some pain, now is as good a time as any. I agree with all the ’08 comparisons we see lately, but highly doubt it will play out the same as then. Fear of another ’08 is exactly what the bull needs to make sure most are on the sidelines scratching their heads, unable to participate when the bull resumes. Too many know exactly what to do if deflation brings metals to their knees, so we’ll not have that opportunity to load up. Gonna have to get in front of it.
This guy is saying the bear market is over:
It’s actually pretty convincing.
It will not surprise me if metals test the recent lows again this week or next, even make slight new lows, but that is a dip to buy and not confirmation of a deflationary collapse.
To me, the correct answer is to be long some, not pick a spot and be all in or out. Have position sizes that allow one to ride out what could be several tests before resuming the upside, keeping some powder dry if wrong. Either way, the bull will correct timing mistakes, as Gary often says.
I am confused …If Dollar goes down, does it mean that we should buy stocks with both hands? Aren’t we in the middle of the window dressing of quarter end? That would mean that everything reverses next week…
With all due respect Gary, seems like you might be allowing the Technical indicators to trump your cycle work? IMO they should be secondary and complimentary, not primary.
SB, your point on always holding a core in a major bull market is spot on.
NJ, my stats come from a proprietary system being developed. It has a database of every daily cycle for this bull market. It shows that 3 back to back daily cycles of just 20 days would be a first.
how common would it be for a gold intermediate cycle to consist of just 2 daily cycles
The COT and sentiment aren’t technicals. One of them by itself doesn’t trump cycles. Two of them together potentially does trump the cycle, especially when we consider that gold is in the timing band for a daily cycle low.
Those two signs suggest that this may be a greater degree bottom.
Does a straight beat a flush? A full house beats two pair?
I am starting to think There is heavy-handed market manipulation associated with the FED twist. The markets are just too weird asof late.
These are the times in the past, 2008, where I’ve lost a lot being on the wrong side of the track.
Thursdays are usually down days in the markets….if I were trading (especially equities) I’d be selling today. Those with big kahunas and are long could wait to see if we take out yesterdays highs within the first two hours. Call me Maverick after Gooses death but to me “it doesn’t look good.”
Silver is still tracking 2008 nearly candle for candle. Nothing has changed yet. A PM bounce here has got to be eyed with great suspicion IMO.
The more 2008 talk I hear, the more I love my positions. 🙂
I was thinking of going 25% in gdxj for an old turkey type of approach. This way I have skin in the game if it goes up. As far as I see it It’s on sale today. Tomorrow might be a cheaper price and I can pick up more. Is there really that much more downside?
Nice to see you got a descriptive answer.
I’ve put my expectations in the nightly report. If you think I’m wrong then fade my trades
assuming nothing fundamental has changed with the gold/dollar relationship, this *could* be the bottom of the entire D-wave.
but if the dollar can keep going then of course this should correct quite a bit further.
pure speculation now but i think europe will elect to default/tell greece to sit and spin which should drive eur/usd upwards, and so am leaning on the gold correction being more or less done with give or take $100.
still holding 1/4 position in QQQ longs until some fog clears.
The EuroZone will not allow Greece to crash. It’s easier to kick the can down the road with hopes that the economy will grow. In other words when the private sector generates enough jobs which in turn increases the tax base required to keep governments afloat. That has been the plan all along here and abroad. Remember, if Greece goes the EuroZone will go with it.
I do say I have to applaud your conviction during this mess.
That being said I agree with the statement that one needs a core, for all these surprises.
you only have 100% downside with unlimited upside!! 😉
zsl ready to go up again??
Thanks, and I was thinking of you and Natanarchist this morning at breakfast as the two fellas here that rode the bull better than the rest out of ’08 (maybe sooner). I have to say it feels kinda lonely on the bull by myself. Not sure what that means. 🙂
I did put some more digital fiat confetti to work into this decline. Turned up my total risk .5% of portfolio, not much but keeps me focused on what I should be doing (buying).
And I’m still expecting some more weakness or sideways chop in the near future. In fact, I prefer the metals/miners sell off a bit into the weekend to shape the charts to my liking.
Shalom, you’re not entirely alone. I have a core of physical that is about 15% of my NW that I bought between Jan 09 and August 10. I don’t even consider selling that.
Nothing to see here; just keep moving along now:
This may end badly for all of us…
By the way, that conviction has lost me the miner profits I made since June when I first bought. Only thing I sold at profit was 70% of my PHYS awhile back.
The first half of the year was great, but I’ve been getting tested since then.
I’m done for the day unless things turn sharply lower, in which case I’ll likely nibble some more. Good luck.
I’m with you there. I don’t even count my physical, and have been very comfortable adding to that recently. I really never have a thought to sell any of that.
Sorry you feel so alone, perhaps you can do the scrooge mcduck things and swim in your pot of gold…I know that makes me feel happier. lol
Yeah, that makes me feel better too!
Oh,and I did actually sell some physical. It was the one coin I talked about the other day that Joesph Lemma said was a fake. Since it’s not silver, but numismatic which I’m not really interested in, I decided to sell it on Ebay. Paid $16, sold for $242.
I got that going for me. lol
Sorry for your lost returns…The gold bull is a hard one…never know what is up or down…I am sure though, despite your short-term set-backs that your investment into non-confetti will produce results. Still think you should do the scrooge mcduck thing, guarantee you will feel even better about the non-confetti position. 🙂
Alright I am out too…best of luck to those braving anything!
SB, been following your posts all along.. holding and adding to NEM, AUY, MDW, AAG, CFM, IPT and REN when you add…. you are not alone…and thanks for your great work…
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Germany remembers 1923 like the US remembers 1932. The US will do everything it can to avoid another depression and Germany will do everything it can to avoid hyperinflation again.
Here is a chart showing the value of one german gold mark in paper marks from 1909 to 1923
Gold mark price
Here is a graph of inflation in Weimar Germany in 1923. The mind boggling part is it’s a log scale chart.
Google weimar hyperinflation and you’ll find plenty of images of people burning paper money and sweeping it off the streets. Germany would rather see the PIGS default and will have to be drug, kicking and screaming, down the money printing path.
DeMark musings from Kevin Depew on 9/28/11:
Dow Industrials recorded a TD Sequential 13 DAILY BUY and confirmed it yesterday with a bullish price flip. A high today above yesterday’s bolsters confidence in the BUY signal. Signal good for 12 days
He didn’t say anything about this, but I believe the Russell recorded one on Thursday and had a bullish price flip yesterday as well.
SP still through bar 12 of 13 of BUY, but may be difficult to record with so many individual stocks recording 13 BUY signals already.
Nikkei – recorded both DAILY Sequential 13 and Combo 13 BUY signals. Bullish price flip as early as tomorrow’s session.
TLT – Confirmed a DAILY TD Sequential 13 on Friday with a bearish price flip yesterday. WEEKLY recorded a 9 SELL setup last week, so 1-4 WEEK reaction implying October may not be a good month for bonds!
That NG just cannot stop falling…
I did jump in very close to the bottom in ’08 Isold everything when gold hit 1652 (1650 was my target ) so I have been on the sidelines for the last few months in Gold. Never sold Amy physical. Also have not bought any physical gold or silver for quite a while, at least 1 year or more. Hopefully we won,t have to stay up all Sunday night to wait for the best prices. Maybe we I wil give WW my account info and he can buy for me. He seems to around for these spike lows and calls them quite accurately.
Lots of cash in my trading account now. Still have all our CEF , and some gdxj in the kids account. That account is 60% cash.
Gary, any thoughts about a confirmation, up or down happening next Friday on jobs report? You have mentioned in the past that those reports can turn the tide.
I think it’s what happens between now and the employment report that is probably going to be important. If the dollar continues to selloff then the employment report would most likely signal a cycle bottom, not a top.
If a cycle bottom happens to come below the previous pivot, then the dollar has problems.
You described the coin as a seated dollar. All seated dollars, by definition, are silver.
If it wasn’t fake, you probably had something else completely different.
not sure wise or not—boy spy puts on the open. we just go back and forth—–horrible gamble–
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Gold support at 1616…120sma. We may see gold crawl the 120 for a bit if it holds.
75sma resistance yesterday and today.
Gold loses the 120sma today the next support is the 150sma around previous IC high 1577-80, a break of the 150sma and I dont think the 200 will hold this time around, look for support at the C-wave lower trendline around 1490
WW, I like your numbers. I say that Asian market trading tail from the other night will need to be validated during market hours, in the least. This is not positive action and the SOS number yesterday was very indicative. Only problem is, where is the bounce!
Just want to post some virgin observations here for potential discussion. Disclaimer I’m in cash. Poly and WW thanks for the contributions (among others, too).
1. The COT report last week showed the small specs piling on the longs, in gold. Despite the OI level, this is bearish to me, hence the Sunday raid.
2. The chart Gary puts up in sentiment….notice the bollinger bands. Narrow for a ling time (like a coil) and this move down they are starting to widen. To me this looks like sentiment can continue down and keep pushing the BB down..
Gary is still the best out there and this blog is top notch. I am finding that I really only should keep up with things here and ignore all else. It mostly bogus and I get diminishing returns on time spent…
The lower this goes, the more money well make buying at the bottom so I have no problem with this decline extending into several weeks.
TZA and TNA, what do they reflect, SPX, DOW, NAS?
you bought PUTS at resistance, after a revesal candle and now we have a swing high. Sounds like a perfect low risk entry to me……
If gold does happen to lose the c-wave lower trendline, support at 1455. I would think that would be the lowest we will see for a long time.
TZA, TNA = Russell 2000 small caps
IWM is the underlying ETF
My falling fruit pattern in gold looks to be in full force.
My chart shows gold didn’t actually tag the 200MA the other day so could get a bounce / retest there…..
Anybody buying PMs here?
think $ runs further into oct. internals were good.
$top = gold bottom.
Silver getting slaughtered…
I will do my best to point out the next bottom (if we make new lows), as I did in Asian trade at 1535, if im awake this time like I was then. I will also confirm it as a short term bottom, which at this point will most likely turn out to be a long term bottom.
Your right it didnt actually tag the 200sma, everyone was expecting that and poured in at 1535, basically right there. We may get a bounce off the 200, but if falling rapidly, panic will drop right through it.
With all this flip flopping, I wouldn’t be surprised if we were buying back UUP within a few days.
I can’t argue with your logic William 🙂
Im still long the dollar, short the market. Waiting for gold to finish crapping.
out of QQQ longs
less money in /gc than its lows
SPY sell signal target 115.2 stop 118.1 (not taking this one so 100% chance of it happening)
Any expectations on how long you’ll be holding onto the dollar trade? I’m still in as well along with EUO. Please post if you sell or see something.
Congrats. Seems you’ve really been playing these markets really well the past few months. Unfortunately I sold my large UUP position this morning with everyone else and am left with a small short position on the markets. Let’s see how we close today.
Is there another one of those dynamite triangles in the chart somewhere……
slumdog managed to pick the 1922 second top and the 1530 low with them so far, they seem to be pretty common when panic sets in.
I’m waiting for John Paulson to unload all of his gold before buying GLD. Still long dollar as well. I thought that the US$ bounce out of 3 year cycle low was a time to buy and hold.
Your insights are such an enormous help….you have no idea! You are right there with play by play, in the moment information. We couldn’t do without you. Many, many thanks!
I am also still long UUP, and also have puts on USO as per Doc’s recommendation, and Harry’s. All in all, not a bad day for my account.
I sold half my UUP. Out of my shorts here; I’ve got no visibility for what tomorrow’s Greece/Germany duet might mean for the market. Stepping aside except for small short positions in SKF and my long UUP, 1/2 position.
Im glad to have helped in anyway, thank you in all humility. 🙂
That is to say, small short via SKF. I’m long SKF.
Who is Harry?
The dollar is all about what the market decides to do. I have been expecting the market to put in a new low and then spawn a bear market rally, but at this point the market has already retraced to the 50% fib level within weeks off its low, I wasn’t expecting to see that until after a new low was in within 40 days of the prior low and a bear market rally topping around the 50% level. So at this point I expect the market will simply break down and continue lower without any significant bear market rally, or the market will break out of this consolidation and make new all time highs….but its hard to fathom that happening being the world is in the toilet right now. Who knows, anything can happen, everyone is nuts right now.
Looking like silver might have another margin hike waiting in the wings. I’m gonna have to ride this out, but not adding more today. Will sit with what I have and be patient.
WW… you can say that again!
Gold caught a bounce at 1600, but I hate these price levels as support…they never seems to hold
you are not alone, I kept my DX as well… very silly of me, but I didn’t feel like selling this morning as I was itching to sell the damned Nasdaq!!
I can’t agree with you more so I didn’t do anything this morning. But the market has been so volatile, anything can change on a dime.
I never thought I would do this in my life: I just picked a few hundred shares of the gold miner I hate the most: Kinross.
maybe I missed it earlier, but can you explain your falling fruit pattern? If it`s your own thing and you don`t want to give it up, that`s cool too. Long gold &dollar, short spx, let`s embrace the disaster 🙂
Let’s look at the BIG picture:
1. Forex: very high odds we have a 3yr cycle low
2. Bonds: the 10yr is just under heavy resistance at 2.0%. Not likely we break above given…
3. The Fed’s Twist pulling money from other assets in an attempt to make coin by front-running the Fed
4. The Fed said: no more.
The result: The LITTLE fish (stock market and PMs) are going swimming! In the downward direction…
One of my neighbors has 4 mines in the Klondike area, still producing well, has 1000 ounces stockpiled so far. Said that Russian and Chinese are interested in buying mines up here and one of the higher up “dudes” at GG that he knows said they are expecting gold prices in the 2300$ range in the spring.
Its a recognizable pattern, you have to know it to see it…its not something I can really explain because its made up of numerous candles…but I have been doing my best to try and explain the moves and price levels that come out of it.
There is more to it than this but to keep it simple…if you take a look at gold on a daily you can see that the topping pattern looks like a weighted branch with fruit hanging on the end, the break down is the fruit detaching and falling from the branch and accelerating to the ground, where it will then bounce and land lower and then roll…the rolling process (consolidation) is still to be seen. The rolling process doesn’t always play out and we may see a “V” recovery instead.
BTW, the pattern plays out on a 5 min chart repeatedly…thats originally how I noticed it…then realized it obviously applies on a daily also…and seen it playing out as gold was topping.
I think you are correct unless Europe has a major default that signals world panic.
Tommy, would that not strengthen my scenario? Or do you think it would be so bad as to detonate the fiat world and cause gold to gap up to $5k/oz?
I have a hard time believing in gold being a safe haven in panics because the market is too small. You can’t fit trillions from Forex and the Bond world into the gold supply… not do-able in my opinion.
Of course that’s just for panics, not the end game Gary sees…
Thanks. Any reason this should not show up on GLD?
LT, What happened with the bank holiday in 1929? I think the gov demanded people turn in their gold by 1932 so to control it’s price??
Hui incredibly weak relative to gold
GLD has gaps, futures 5 minute charts are ideal brother.
Your still using tos for futures? I`ve been thinking about that more and more. This after hours action where I can`t get to my `Goods` is almost freaking me out. If I needd to tap your brain box, are you available? Thanks for the help!
Looks like we hit the Weekly EMA 34 on $GOLD…
bot xxx s and p puts on open at 2.02 closed 3.26—my salvation. but pretty much in cash other than that. but never enough.
sold euo on open despite decent internals in retrospect not too bright. always easy in rear view mirror. have some juniors that working out of. those were small but down, other than a few, tired of that game.
when casey reccomends a junior and gets clipped u know better not be in that space.
Yeah still use TOS…ofcourse im available for you bro.
Well at least we now know stocks are going down when gold does. No one knew yesterday what they would do.
The EuroTrash decided that raising taxes on banks would solve the problem, hence the selloff. If raising taxes solved any problems then the US would be a Bazillion dollars in the black…
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It not going be how low gold goes to make people think the bull is dead, it’s going to be how long it stays down. Like an animal faking it’s death.
Silver is stretched a bit far below the 150sma, we may see silver bounce before gold.
Out of curiosity extacly how many moving averages do you have on your charts? I hear you speak of numerous different ones. Do you think they provide actual support and resistance or are you curve fittig?
I use about 10 MA’s that I know with absolute certainty act as support and resistance. If you double check everytime I mentioned one you can see for yourself.
BTW, did the VSA indicator spot the gold top?
I have been wanting to apply it, just haven’t got around to it yet 🙂
If anyone here is using Google Chrome v14, would they be kind enough to go to http://www.zerohedge.com/ and tell me if it displays for them? Thank you
I use chrome and zerohedge works for me.
gold silver troll, thank you
Eamonn, mine is working…
Eamonn, I sent you the report you were probably looking to read.
at ease, thank you :o)
Has anyone invested, experience or knowledge of: PHYS
SPROTT PHYSICAL GOLD TRUST ETV
You know something we don’t about increase of margin in the wings?
Gold just bounced off the 150sma on a daily…bounces off the 150sma ($1580) and 200sma ($1530) are so expected that buyers start pouring in $5 ahead of time. But I think they may regret it.
Cool article with Doug Casey regarding physical;
It gave some major warning signs, but didn’t call a climax high like it did in Silver. Gold never really had a blow off move. Like everything else it doesn’t work well in isolation.
Well this is odd. I leave here at the end of last week saying the dollar rally will fizzle, holding a small long gold position from $1640 and a small market short position. I come here doubting my position, and now I see Gary is more or less agreeing with it.
If you want to see a study that will blow your mind at it’s ability to call intraday market turns, check out the Tape Momentum study at ThinkScripter. It only works on Tick charts, buy it’s basically a tape reading crutch. It shows spikes in the speed of the tape, which usually means either stops were just run or large buyers are stepping in. Requires some interpretation, but it’s another excellent tool. The best part is that it’s real-time information, not ancient information like stochastics and things of that nature.
Last week we didn’t have the missing piece of the puzzle. I prefer to have all the pieces in place before jumping into the deep end.
But that doesn’t mean that I think the dollar has or will top soon, I just think it needs to fall in order for risk assets to rise and since everything is now in the timing band for a major low that should happen soon.
I’ve come to some very interesting conclusions that I will go over in the weekend report BTW.
Being able to do a complete 180 based on new information is what makes Gary the great trader that he is.
Understanding ZSL (double short silver) and AGQ (double long silver)
In order to have a large run up several factors have to fall into place. I’ll use ZSL as an example:
1) ZSL’s premarket trading price is determined by the % change between the 7am EST London silver fix and the previous day’s 7am EST London silver fix. The 7am EST London fix must be lower than the previous London silver. This equates to roughly 7am or 7:15am Kitco spot silver price.
7am London Silver Fix
Kitco Spot Silver
2) 9:30 am EST (NY market open) Kitco spot silver should ideally be at, or near, 7am London fix price.
3) 4:30 pm EST (NY market close) Kitco spot silver must be lower than 7am London fix.
4) Above steps must repeat for compounding % (as opposed to a big one day drop).
If the above happens ZSL should soar. If the above does not happen ZSL will under perform its goal to be 2x the inverse of silver.
The same is true for AGQ (double long silver) albeit in reverse.
You have to ask yourself (as I am) if AGQ and ZSL are so complicated is it even worth it to play them? For most people, I’d say no. I’m stuck with what I have for now and will try to make the best of it.
The dollar slashed through its 200MA like it was made of butter. That’s after developing a 4 month base to use as a launching pad.
My guess is that Gary’s original guess will be correct. The dollar is going a lot higher. Course a back test of the 200MA is almost certain.
But I don’t know much. It’s just that if an idiot like me can see it, then it must be pretty apparent! lol
Too funny… good timing.
The best way to gain leverage on the metals is to trade either the big comex futures contracts or the mini-versions, then you have no issues with the daily reset or the compounding problem. As a side benefit you get preferential tax treatment, which can make a huge impact to your end of the year bottom line. Plus no hatchet to head monster gaps to worry about.
Thanks Strat. I’m not sure futures are for me, but I can see why so many people love them.
Well…google flagged me as a spammer again. I guess those long posts calling for a possible gold bottom did it.
Anyway…I’ve upped my core physical position as of this evening and I have a 3x gold futures trade waiting to buy if we go a little lower. 1585 is still somewhat high for me seeing as how we are in the middle of the night with low volume and probably some whipsawing before morning.
I may have already missed the low however. I have to admit that 1585 isnt’ bad which is why I went ahead with the core upping.
I think we are retesting the monday low now/this evening and we won’t get much lower down (although sideways chop might ensue).
To be honest I think 1585 is probably the low of the restest and that I should chase and buy in here, but I’m not. Sticking to my plan and will deal with not getting in if that’s the result later.
Are you concerned about being so far out from the cycle timing band for a intermediate low, which is due in 5 weeks or so?
TZ, why do you think 1585 will be the low?
But you’re not buying, that means you not very sure or you dont want to take the chance?
I dont understand why you dont just buy off a tag of a major moving average if you plan on entering, gold tagged the 150sma tonight, tested it again and popped.
If I recall, Gary also suggested the other day that maybe you should just wait until a tag of the 200 to enter, monday night you and I were watching it in realtime and commenting on the blog, gold popped at 1535 right before tagging the 200 (obviously everyone was expecting a bounce off the 200 and poured in). You should have considered putting on your long near the 200, a bit less risk I would say.
I’m not a cycles guy. That’s gary. I do follow his advice, but he doesn’t catch tops or bottoms as much as mid-moves. I have my own strategy, augmented with gary, that trades different and tries to make high leverage entries with small stops.
I suggested a bottom earlier in the week and many said ‘no way’, but now they are coming around including gary so I might be right on that call. From a simple observation point of view I think it will be hard to go below 1535.
So INT low or not who knows. The market doesn’t HAVE to trade in any particular way. We are all just using rough guides.
Based on the monday low and now the decline action late night I simply think there is a reasonable chance we don’t go much lower. (You will notice the retracement low after spiking up on monday was 1586 which is the same zone. That’s part of the reason.)
I’m not long cause when I say I try to trade leveraged with small stops I mean LEVERAGED with SMALL stops.
I’m shooting for an entry with less than a $10 stop right now going 3x leveraged on gold (3x my ENTIRE net worth). I don’t want to lose more than 1-2% if stopped out. Such a trade can be done and I’ve done them many times before, but you have to pick a low that holds and have a tight stop.
Yes, I think the low at 1585 might be it for the retest, but we were already well above that point before that observation became seemingly clear. So no go.
A buy in here requires a $35 stop or $3500 per futures contract. I can’t even get close to 1x invested using that.
So, I simply wait to see if we go lower to my original buy. Or if not I just find a buy later on. A bull market goes up and up and up, so there are multiple points I can make leveraged buys.
Take a look at my post below from early today…it was obvious that if gold lost the 120sma today, which it did right after I posted, that the 150sma would be next strong support. After it lost the 120sma it bounced of 1600, then I said this before it breached 1600″Gold caught a bounce at 1600, but I hate these price levels as support…they never seem to hold” because I believed that buyers would step in at a big round number like 1600, but not enough buyers to hault this correction.
“Gold loses the 120sma today the next support is the 150sma around previous IC high 1577-80, a break of the 150sma and I dont think the 200 will hold this time around, look for support at the C-wave lower trendline around 1490”
September 28, 2011 10:17 AM
Why on earth does blogger keep marking my posts and account as spam?
This is the most horrible blog entity in the world. So many problems and so much crap.
Would you PLEASE consider moving this thing to a better company/site?
Wordsmith or whatever else your tech guy suggests?
We can’t block people. We get marked as spam all the time. You can’t refresh the posting page without it resetting to view at the top. Etc…the list goes on and on.
Please consider an alternative.
not a chance.
As I have mentioned many times before, Gold bounced off the 150sma tonight ($1585) on a daily and grinded right up to the 200sma and tagged it at $1622 on a 5 min, which it is now crawling….if thats not obedience to the MA’s I dont know what is 🙂
TZ(3285), what does the 3285 refer to? Is it your serial number?
That TZ’s gold target 🙂
WW, thought maybe it was something else…
I give a buck to know what the buck is going to do.
The American peso? I say it goes higher.
If you are right then we know what the PM market is going to do.
Every time I go to sleep and the dollar is lower (-.39 right now), I wake up and it’s positive.
Unscientific, yes. Does it work? You bet your a$$ it does. Swing low on the American peso tomorrow. Bank on it. 😉
IBB’s chart monthly chart is still looking good. Someday i think i will put a good percentage of my money into that one.
I am just fascinated by the PM market though. I wonder what it will take to get the miners rocking like no body’s business. I also wonder if they will wait until the very end of the bull when you can’t even get physical gold or silver? Then everybody will go to the source where the metals come from.
I’m going to hold you to it. I still have my UUP and EUO. Not going to be pretty if it’s still like this in the morning.
Check out this guys opinion. So far, according to the charts, the miners are okay.
“Asian stocks fall as Europe anxieties flare again”
It ain’t over yet.
Thats an earlier headline. The Nikkei 225 has rallied back since. Today’s range is 8,501.42 – 8,706.14. Currently at 8701. Straits range 2,669.96 – 2,707.90. Currently at 2700. Taiwan up, Jakarta up, Seoul up 2.7. BUT its about how they close that matters.
^I guess I was just talking about the perception of what might happen with the EU.
WW … may I ask what moving averages you consider to be important … I have seen mention of 75, 120, 150 and 200.
Also do you use the same MA’s on the 5 minute that you do on the daily?
Thanks for your input to this blog …
Is this what you’re trying to explain with your patented “Falling Fruit” pattern
Ripe for picking
edit to above:
I can see your favourite MA passing through where the lower dotted line runs through the chart
i feel like whether or not this gap fills in stocks will be very telling of what to expect for the next week or two.
no positions but bullish so long as we’re above /es 1141. nice double bottom in copper too.
SPX—-1160 line in sand. If stays above bulls may have a day in control.
If the banks turn negative it’s probably all over.
could end up in red spx
SPY SoS building up again…
I get so many things wrong it makes my head swell… but I was actually counting down the days,
“Warning. Possible sharp silver sell off in 10 days.”
“Warning. Possible sharp silver sell off in 5 days.
Then -> BAAM!!!
I’m really getting tested now. I’m basically at the lowest point in equity, after miners briefly bounced me into positive ground earlier this week, I’m back to marginal new lows.
I’d be more positive if I thought they’d turn in short order, but I have a sense there is another shoe to drop. As much as I’d like to buy more at these prices, I hope to wait to add the last quarter TR to my portfolio until Gary gives the green light, which will bring me to 10% TR to portfolios. (currently 7.5% with no clear skies ahead).
The only good thing I can look to is that I get more shares for the same amount TR added, as prices go lower.
No fun on my end, but sticking to the plan regardless of the pain.
i’ve decided to give up on actually flowing the dollar since i’m not trading it. /dx and uup both too jumpy/illiquid to do the type of volume analysis i like.
i’ll let the big boys do that research since i’m not that convinced what the dollar does even matters. i’ll just follow /es and /gc since those are what i trade.
some buying coming into /es here.. we’ll see. if there’s a PPT i’d imagine they’re on red alert right now.
*following, not flowing. heh
also netflix in big trouble.
thine eyes on banks today—if they hold mkt likely stay plus today
The volatility in silver is just ridiculous.
Any toughts about dollar ?
another inside day setting up on the index’s if we stay within yesterdays bar.
The last one of these settups was on the 23rd and gave us the pop into the rally we just had.
JL … it’s not just silver … everything is up today, down tomorrow.
Copper down 7% yesterday … up 4% today … it’s everywhere.
If you could pick the direction daily you would triple your money in a week.
If it’s any consolation I drove everyone crazy with my hedge talk, and what just happened is exactly something that should have made me a barrel full of money on my hedge, but my stupid ZSL hedge (which was SIZEABLE by the way) has *vastly* underperformed my expectations. Now I realize that I did not do my homework on ZSL so it is I who am stupid.
My total trade is down -39%.
The only reason I can laugh it off is because at least I don’t have options expiration breathing down my neck like the old days.
PMs will eventually surpass their all time highs by a wide margin. I would be stunned if the HUI did not join the party at some stage. It just showed what it was willing to do… and we had not seen the GDX crowd do THAT in a loooong time.
You’ll be alright man. It’s just time now. Worst case scenario I see 24 months before new all time highs. But the longer it takes, the more energy will be stored up for the next series of moves.
Actually the only thing that has some semblance of sanity is the dollar … it also changes direction daily but at least the general trend is up.
so your core position is silver, not gold?
The weakness in miners today is confounding and frustrating.
The best thing to do volume analysis and support & resistance as it applies to the Dollar is to use the Euro Currency futures contracts (/6E).
yes alot of inside days are showing thus far
october is worst month in the year for miners
october cruel month for gold
C Citi group—gap up now lows of day.
strat81, good advice. i’m going to look into that, the euro contract does seem to be worlds more popular.
took 1/4 long position here in SPY at 116.0 with a stop in the mid 114’s. no buy signal just yet, but i’m seeing a lot of anamalous orders come in. i think if that gap was going to fill it would have done so by now..
SB – I couldn’t resist…just bought some more AG (First Majestic) as it was dropping (below $16). 😉
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” 77 said…
yes alot of inside days are showing thus far
what can i learn from those charts??
Demark insights from Kevin Depew @ minyanville for 9/29/11:
EURO: WEEKLY on Bar 5 down of 13 – DOWN Qualified Break with a target of 1.2859. DAILY only on bar 6 down of 13 and also qualified a Daily Down Break implying the full 13 count is probable
Gold – had an up open (based on 8:30 am time) so it did not qualify the 1616.60 level – YET. Need an UP Close, followed by a Down Close below that level, then a Down open to achieve a break. Gold was supposed to get more of a reaction to its 1-4 DAY setup, but it’s been ho-hum so far.
CRB Index – qualified a DOWN level similar to Gold on Sep 21, then 7% down.
Crude oil – qualified a WEEKLY break this week with a target below $60/barrel!! Good news for the average Joe!
Dr. Copper? Lots of insights today about copper indicating more S&P downside. Jason Goepfert also has an interesting article today showing that a market selloff isn’t inevitable. Demarkwise – Copper recorded a TD Sequential BUY yesterday, good for 12 days. Also, WEEKLY BUY Setup recording this week, so next 1-4 weeks should be good for copper.
SP still through Bar 12 DOWN on the DAILY. But MONTHLY, we have the last gasp of a very potent MONTHLY SELL setup that is coming to a close tomorrow – thank goodness!
Also, if we do not get above 1200 tomorrow, we will have another down monthly close in the S&P. To see what we had happen in 2008 – a MONTHLY qualified break, we need an UP close, followed by a DOWN close below the break level (currently at 940ish S&P), then a DOWN open at the start of the month. So, the earliest this could happen (unless we have a violent rally tomorrow) would be December 1st.
Thanks for reading!
QQQs are seriously ugly and SPY SoS is holding firm… But most importantly, the 10yr yield looks ready to roll over – RSI wants a rest and the 2% line looks firm…
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the $ is important as other markets attached 4 now. Still long xxx S&P puts. hairy 4 awhile– support 1142 1150
if $ goes to 81—stocks and gold could get crushed.
i got back in ung earlier on crash.
also bot covered call on BRC—connectd to ng.
SPY is just following FTSE 100 & DAX
brc is rrc–sorry
exited that SPY trade just now on the pop at 115.25, loss of .75. dumb, undisciplined trade there. 10 demerits.
that little rip down put in a new sell signal: target 113.3 stop 116.6
The Nasdaq is about to lose the daily cycle lower trendline, I would suspect tech to start spitting up blood.
before you buy any DOWN day..
now you short any UP day..
the trend is your friend until it changes
Relative to the market and Dollar, Gold is showing lot of strength.
Good luck and buckle up for some turbulence! 🙂
One bloodbath, dead ahead…
Anybody know of this site? I was looking for stats on insider trades at Canadian companies since many miners are based there, and stumbled across this one. I like that it’s much more timely than reporting here in the USSA.
just picked up some pfe, sny and oln for the long term
no more inside day’s, they’ve all printed lower bars.
They show up better on the ETF’s
Don’t know if anyone saw this, but we can be certain that any deflation will be short lived.
bac barely up wfc down
ssri–death warmed over.
That move on the QQQ’s is impressive.
The range on todays bar is up there with the biggest crash days…..
There they go again with just abut 15 minutes to the end of trading the good old PPT comes to the rescue again–we can’t have the DOW fall below 11000 can we—This happens almost every time –the FED comes to the rescue again–don’t you just love these free markets .The PPT support operations, which have now defended 11,000 an astounding six times in the last seven weeks
I’m extremely happy as I believe I got my mojo back. Did 12 trades today and 11 were profitable. Yupeeeee
SB – Yes, I do occasionally look at that Canadian Insider Trading list. Wish it was longer than last 10 trades (without paying).
Can anyone tell me why I frequently see insiders buying their company options and then selling them right away? Does this have something to do with taxes? Thanks in advance!
Is anyone here familiar with ssri ?
Just picked up a few hundred shares.
This is extremely weird.
I woke up this morning with a sudden desire to go on a buying spree in the mining sector with my recently transferred cash.
Those types of options are usually granted by the company to their executives. They allow the grantee to purchase shares from the company at a price that is usually well below market value and then they will just turn around and sell them on the open market at the market price for a risk-free massive profit.
Beanie is now posting as “beandog” on the SeekingAlpha author I referred him to. They beat him up on EVs worse than Gary beats him up on stocks.
Farm girl – thanks for the link. I wonder why Beanie thinks electric vehicle really will generate significant income for ALL Americans, I remember reading some of his posts…
Even if electric vehicles become a reality (which I seriously doubt), it will be the Japanese and Germans that will make money off of building them, not the Big Three (or is it Two now?). Americans have shown no ability to profitably produce cars… just ask GM. Beanie is a lunatic. Steer clear of lunatics.
I understand that it is risk free, but I would think that the officer/director would hold them if they thought the company was doing well. So would this be the same sign as an insider selling because they think the stock might go down? Or do they do this to avoid the appearance of insider trading?
Most companies grant shares to everyone in the company. They are called ESOP’s and ISO’s. Often times the company will purchase stock in order to grant shares only to see the price plunge afterwards. Then the employee is left with a bunch of useless options.
I belong to my company’s ESOP program.
They give me 25% of whatever I buy and I’m allowed to cash it in twice a year. I absolutely participate (free 25%) and I absolutely sell twice a year … 🙂
I do the same. My company has 15%. I sell right after the share is sallable to bank that 15%. I have been making money. When it was started, I hold the stock, and I end of lose.
Anyone know where I can examine reliably the M2 money supply?
RJ, thank you. Much appreciated :o)
click’refresh click’ refresh click’refresh
its the only way i have to figure anything out. Although refreshing isn’t giveing me anything. sigh
The current equity market is the true definition of “Chop”.
My gold futures system buy point is quickly moving down and is about 60 bucks away from buying. I’m still rooting for a loss on the next buy signal to help reset it and move the wins a little closer to it’s long term %.
Veronica, thank you :o)
U R welcome, Eammon:)
I wonder how many people were fooled by the dollar’s head fake on 2008-09-22.
Most of the time the transaction is scheduled far in advance. It’s hard to say if it really indicates that the insider thinks the share price is going to go down or if they just want thier money now. Since it usually equates to the largest portion of an execs compensation, I tend to view it as more of them cashing their bonus check, then speculating on the share price.
Also heard Singapore developers are giving away 100K luxury cars as part of deals.
Watch out Vancouver CANADA.
Stage is set for a massive correction and then…QE3
I’m from Vancouver. I welcome a massive correction in the real estate market but I will believe it when I see it.
And, yes, I rent.
For what its worth…update
In Gold, $BPGDM, Miners, etc, things look like a low (so far) so I have been trading and do currently own Miners.
I bought GPL today and I feel like I’m at some kind of a “fire sale” (until it crashes, right? LOL
the reasons why are $BPGDM is now rediculously low. 26.67!!
I saw this with GPL – RISK VS REWARD…Its on THE Bottom here again…I could cut losses at .20cents below?? But upside could be very good if Miners run.
and this looks good if it closes here or higher …
and this goes with it (definition)
I bought the gap fill on RIC too yesterday.
Its easy to have stops in some of these with minimal downside risk.
Eamonn, I’d also recommend checking out the statistics page at mises.org. A lot of good stuff all in one place.
I also brought some EXK – 2 days ago and it promptly dropped! But am not worried…I may take a loss tomorrow.
BTW, do you know how the “$BPGDM” is computed- what is the underlying data for it coming from?
German CDS Widening increasing fear
“I’m virtually 99% sure that gold has entered what I call a D Wave Decline, and that is a severe profit taking event that is triggered when gold gets stretched too far above the 200 day moving average. Smart money starts to sell, and then the selling starts to feed on itself and the decline becomes extreme. I’m about 99% sure that has begun.” Gary – September 22, 2011
Since 09/22/11 gold has fallen around -14% (or -20% from its earlier ATH to its recent low of 1535).
Does -14% or -20% qualify as severe profit taking? I’m honestly not sure. That’s why I’m asking.
I guess it might help to look at a few past gold pullbacks.
The most recent pull back of this magnitude was Dec 2009 to Feb 2010. A drop of roughly -15%.
Then, of course, there was the convoluted fall in 2008.
From the high in March 2008 gold fell roughly -18% (initially).
After a very convincing rally, gold fell -25%
Followed by an amazing vertical rally, and a final drop of -27%
The total drop from ATH in March 2008 to low in Oct 2008 low was roughly -34%
So… is our current -14% or -20% all she wrote?
Me thinks not.
But then, me hasn’t received any awards for thinking lately.
^An earlier example (noted in Gary’s chart) was May-June 2006. A drop of roughly -23%.
Sentiment is as negative right now as at the bottom in 2008.
A true contrarian would be going long spy right now.
Let’s face it. If all it took was common sense, we would all be billionaires.
I guess the question would be, is this a normal D Wave decline in which case the worst may be over already. Or is this about to get serious?
Danno, the retail lemmings are absolutely terrified that this might be a repeat of 2008. That’s reason enough to go long. Just don’t listen to the news and don’t return to the Zero Hedge site. Tyler is nothing but a cunning linguist. lol
Wisdom is the unquantifiable asset everyone needs but that is difficult, if not impossible to actually earn. Learning through experience or study (the experiences of others) will increase knowledge but it does not necessaryily increase wisdom.
When King Solomon was offered anything in the world, the only thing he asked for was wisdom. Of course, wisdom then enabled him to attain all the other things he could have asked for.
Wisdom seems to be granted to certain individuals. Wisdom is not something that can always be obtained through effort.
My point being, if anyone is trying very, very hard but still struggling… you might want to get down on your knees and pray for help. Seriously.
you completely lost me there. Who’s struggling? You? Me?
If you are struggling to make any headway, my advice would be to go cold turkey on gold without leverage and take a few months to look at charts, etc…
The comment was not directed at you personally. Sorry for the confusion.
read the zerohedge comments if you want to know what the retail lemming who lost a bundle in 2008 is doing.
And I thought you said silver is your long run core position. Don’t worry about that. I’ve been buying silver coins left and right from “hoarders” who are too scared about any further losses. That should tell you something about whether the bottom is close.
One reason why silver just behaved as it behaved in 2008 had a lot to do with similarities between the 2008 and 2011 silver chart patterns IMO.
I saw the candles lining up and obviously all the silver traders saw too… and they pulled the trigger.
Were conditions the same as 2008? No. Was the silver chart the same? Yes. Eerily so.
Now, what next for silver? Have conditions changed? No. Is the silver chart still the same as 2008? Yes. Very close. So will silver traders pull the trigger and dump yet again?
That’s the 64 million dollar question.
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Silver is not my only position nor my core position. I just thought that I would go public with one trade.
This correction in the market would be too easy to buy right now. I think things need to get a lot bloodier before I’m convinced a bottom is in. All I see on the charts is a giant bear flag that hasn’t broke yet. A drop to 900 or even 800 on the SPX would cause average Joe to sell. Then we can talk bottom.
Your question about a D-Wave at 1:31 a.m.
If this is a real D-wave, its really probably only at a half way point. It could get into the 1400’s I.M.h.o. more like this…in the end
So now you may ask why I just posted I bought? I’m ‘trading’ for now, scalping money when I see a decent set up…And $BPGDM is favorable (so far).
My buy point on those Miners like GPL…they are at their absolute lows -so a bounce on light volume = take profit. Drop much below here…cut positions.
GPL if you missed it (already posted here)
I drew that chart before this all unfolded. A true A-B-C-D- would now go A-B from (roughly) $1920 to $1520=$400 pts…
-bounce to (roughly) $1650 = B-C
then drop $400 again C-D $1250
Thanks. I wish there was an icon to indicate what a person’s trading time frame was on their posts.
Yeah, that would be helpful if someone was following another persons trade set up.
For me, it involves buying at a point that shouldnt drop too much below ( In a strong uptrend, like we get in Gold Miners when they are all running well…I allow 5-8% drop, then I’m stopped Out),
But most of the time I watch my positions and when I think it may not be acting correctly…I also sell.
So for me, its not always a ‘time-frame’..but tends to be
1) taking profits when things change
2) taking a small loss when its not doing what I thought it should.
And I live by William O’Neil s saying… ” Its only safe to fly the plane , if you know how to land it when it’s time” 🙂
Oh, and in TRICKY markets like right now…I do NOT allow 5% loss, and I’m a lot more careful about where I “get in”-
I need to feel that its at least a temporary low-
Chasing a stock in these volatile mkts is dangerous, because they turn and drop FAST!
I don’t know for you guys, but I have just bought back the Nasdaq I sold with great conviction yesterday ( 62 points in my favor).
Maybe it goes lower, but what is puzzling for me is that at those levels of S&P 1150ish, the European markets were 10% cheaper last week. So, the big guys have exhausted their selling power.
So my reasoning is the following: if there are no more sellers of European stocks, there are no more sellers of Euro, so the dollar weaken… and the stocks rally a bit…
Cash is king
Thanks for the charts, Alex.
Looks like metals are forming your coil formation.
I have to get through the next couple weeks, but hanging tight for now.
Not really a coil IMO. We should get a climax selling event over the next 6 days and then that will be it. But I wouldn’t be surprised if the S&P loses 150-160 points in that period.
If the selling pressure can drive gold down to the $1400-$1450 level then we will have our D-wave.
D-wave completed at $1400, or just getting started? lol!
Either way I should be able to hold another 6 days or so and will add some risk when Gary decides to buy.
If gold loses the 200sma, and I believe it just might if it is tested again, im looking for a long term bottom around 1480 or 1460.
Should get a decent bounce off 1500 beforehand.
thanks for your posts, they are really valuable to me.
I have just sold back my DX position, I don’t know why but I am antsy and worried about it.
I am pretty sure that now that I sold it, it is going to cruise to 81!
But I wanted to let you know
Have a great w/e!
A person can always sell naked puts if he believes the bottom is near but is not sure where the bottom is.
Worse case you have to buy the shares, which is what you want anyway.
a breach of the 1400 level will send gold into a 8 year low type of D-wave.
Thank you very much. If you were in the green when you took off the DX position thats all that matters…be happy.
Gold resisting decline at the moment
I own Sprott (PHYS).
You got a question?
Gold 2008 vs 2011
Amazing on 3 year chart that MACD is now lower today than the lows of 2008.
If gold behaves as it did during other D-waves, its not going straight down. It will drop then consolidate, drop then consolidate, before bottoming.
From what I’ve seen in Sept, I’d guess Gary’s D-wave is upon us though we’re through a good chunk of it.
$1400 seems about right, which we were kidding about at the beginning of the month as it seemed quite unlikely. 🙂
Anyone else having trouble with Think or Swim this morning?
yes, my think or swim is acting up too
Do you typically go Old Turkey and hold through B-wave decline, or try to sidestep it?
Long 16% DIG+, 84% GDXJ, SSO 29%
TOS not working for me as well.
just talked to customer support and they are having issues but should be corrected soon. (TOS)
GLD SLV another inside day beginning, so it’s double inside
notice how CCI on every chart is in sell signal territory, or shows very weak markets
Thanks for the responses on TOS…its like driving with a blindfold!
Think or Swim drowning. This is crazy.
Thanks for the update.
TOS for me everything working except chat… charts and quotes ok says ‘connected realtime’
i see my post was chopped above
re double inside GLD SLV
CCI’s have been very negative across the board
Quick question. I’m getting pretty dissatisfied with Ameritrade. Every time the market has a volatile move their system crashes.
Suggestions for other platforms that don’t experience this problem.
Gary – try Interactive Brokers. They have low margin costs (I know you said not to use leverage) and actually have VXX available to short (I used to be with Schwab).
The user interface takes a few days to get used to. I think a lot of their features are gear towards professional money managers, so I only use the basic features.
In addition, it has never crashed for me. You can either do the “web trader” or you can download it as a desktop application. I like their charting features too.
I have had a good experience with Scottrade for the past 12 months. I have not had system failures. I’m not sure how they compare with other brokerages.
Gary, I’ve been very satisfied with the Fidelity Active Trader Pro platform.
Bit of a curve ball this morning…dollar up as plannned, pm’s misbehaving. Are we decoupling or is this just a little stubborness?
FYI: TOS Paper Trading charts are working for me…
If you’d like to read in depth what people have to say about their brokers, check out reviews at elitetrader (.com?)
I don’t like the site and haven’t visited in several years, but I recall they had the pros and cons of each broker and you can choose what’s most important to you.
I cant even log into TOS.
TOS working again now.
Gary, I’ve also been using Fidelity Active Trader Pro for years and haven’t had problems with it.
I have not had a problem with TD Ameritrade online but the Iphone app is not working. I think that’s tied to Thinkorswim.
I am mostly with them for legacy reasons and it is a bit complicated to move, especially how I have my 3 accounts set up. I should change to IAB. I have been thinking of doing that since 2008.
BTW, does anyone know a way to show the gold price on the TD Ameritrade online platform streamer application? I use the one called Command Center. I don’t think it’s possible normally.
Also their new product TradeArchitect sucks. It is buggy and was not showing real time data. I was comparing to the master page and Command Center.
Also the Iphone app is crap too. It crashes all the time.
If it were not such a pain to move…..
I have been following your posts with great interest. Thanks for keeping up with the blog. I see you have gone long drillers… is this for a bounce or are you going to hold this position for a while…thanks for your input…best wishes
Moved back into a double short etf yesterday morning, TWM, the russel2K, fwiw….I think we go down in seasaw fashion with commodities….thinking that gold and the miners stabilize here for a few days perhaps, and the general markets begin the second leg down….Looking for Down 9000 give or take in a couple months….gonna get out of this twm due to slippage at the first opportunity, and just use a little margin (!) with a 1x Russel short fund. Enjoy the comments and yes it is hard to be short…
I gather a 1x short etf has no slippage, right? tia
Alex in Montana,
Yes, looking for some funds to buy and hold once we hit bottom of this cycle in gold. I was looking at TLGDX and wondering how PHYS performs overall for buy/hold.
ZC is limit down -40 on bad grain report
ZS -45 and ZW -43 which is what happens when one of them is limit down, the boyz sell the others
sunday nite or monday perhaps a good buying op in grains
…you’re going to see lots of articles about hedge fund redemptions, commodity fund redemptions, and there are rumors that paulson is selling GLD for his redemptions, so don’t be surprised if this commodity drawdown lasts another month
crude oil the best tell for commodities these days, as the oil complex is the biggest weight in commodity indexes
been seeing lotsa charts showing crude oil and stock market flowing together, as well
In command center I have a one minute GLD chart streaming with the chart tool and on another monitor I have a one minute spot chart streaming. Interestingly, the GLD chart seems to be a couple minutes ahead of what I thought was a live spot chart quote. Not sure if GLD acts a little like a “futures” price. Would be interesting to compare a real time chart of futures prices but I don’t have real time quotes in my futures acct.
If it were not such a pain to move…..
Check this out just in case you are not aware. Check into “ACATS”.
PHYS worked fine for me, and I still have a 30% position. As far as TLGDX, I believe they take a decent chunk out of profits in addition to management fees. Something like 2.5% of the upside, if memory serves. I prefer to make my own fund, and you can do it by looking at their major holdings as well as Sprott’s and picking several names from the list.
I’m tempted to turn my computer off and come back in 6 weeks.
I gather a 1x short etf has no slippage, right?
That’s tricky. Consider all the instances ETFs don’t “track” well (some are good & some are nororious) and fees charged by the managers.
I count that as slippage.
I know you know this but novices fail to understand that holding the 2x and 3x ETFs overnite mean slippage will occur.
I might be incorrect on the TLGDX on second thought. The 2.5% skim might only be on the amount they outperform a mining index.
I think the market is smelling some QE.
The dollar certainly isn’t. It looks like it’s getting ready to break through resistance next week.
You around today?
Demark comments from Kevin Depew at minyanville for 9/30/11:
OK, we finally got our SP futures DAILY BUY signal, good for 12 trading days (the next 2 1/2 weeks). It occurred without a new low. BUY will be confirmed with the first close greater than the close 4 price bars earlier (bullish price flip). But until then a new low cannot be ruled out.
INDU recorded a TD Sequential 13 DAILY BUY on Sep 23 which was confirmed this week. You may have noticed that the Dow has been outperforming the last few days.
NDX is on bar 12 of a potential DAILY TD Sequential 13 signal.
Moving out to the MONTHLY time frame, we will next week begin a new month, thus exiting the 4 bar window for the May TD 9 SELL setup that has produced extreme pressure on most markets (except the dollar).
Of course, that does not mean we will immediately begin to rally but it does add one more strike against the bears.
Depew’s bottom line: SELLING exhaustion is now showing up in the indices and individual stocks. Bullish percent indices are at very low levels and the high-low indices are also washed out and will soon record a secondary, higher low. There is much disbelief that anything positive can occur in the equities space – we are almost there!!!
SLW is getting mighty tempting…
It’s possible QE3 may not come until 2012 unless things get ugly.
A close above 78.80 on the buck would be nice. 79 would be even better.
The 10 DMA on the HUI is dropping so steeply that any recovery to that point will likely require a retest of the lows before it can turn the moving average back up.
There’s probably no need to catch the exact bottom here. Get in during the retest. One would have greater odds of not having to weather a draw down or whipsawing.
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Bernankes not just going to announce QE out of the blue, the economy has to go into recession and/or the markets have to crash. If we just drift around like this or go up there’s no reason for QE and it would be politically feasible.
Hmm, are the miners putting in a bottom or is there going to be another push down? Past bottoms suggest another quick washout is in store, but the rock bottom $BPGDM suggests this may be it. That said GDXJ continues to struggle to outperform GDX even despite being dropping harder on the way down. Thoughts?
The 487 low on the HUI?
If gold does what I think it will do, I would say the miners will be testing the lows.
Thanks for your input. I was wondering whether you thought gold is in the “rolling on the ground” phase of the dropping fruit move on the daily chart. Guess not 🙂
USD needs to bounce here or all bets are off.
No…bounce. I mentioned in a previous post that the “rolling on the ground” is not guaranteed, we may see a V bottom instead. I have seen both patterns playout repeatedly.
slw looks good here for a trade
Im sure that was the mindset on 9/22/08. Man would you have been wrong 🙂
BTW, the “rolling on the ground” occurs at a new low.
Would you consider adding fcx to your portfolio at this point? It looks ready to bounce.
Shh… you’re not allowed to mention 08′ around here.
I’m adding miners to my account at a fast pace.
Shalom and all others who have been dabbling in the sector, do you have any names I can add?
I’m currently long ag, slw and ssri.
The miners love the 490 level, thier dying to test it again, this will be the 4th time since late 2010.
FCX sure has gotten whacked, and the dividend got me looking at it the other day, but they don’t derive enough income from gold and precious metals. I believe it’s only 7%, and I’m not nearly as interested in getting long copper, though it could work.
AUY has been pretty solid, lower risk, with 1.3% dividend.
Here are some names to consider:
AG AXU EXK MFN NGD AUY NSU UXG and maybe a little MVG, but it has too low volume for me.
Nothing scientific, just trying to include some larger names, juniors, some silver and some primarily gold. Most are owned by funds like Sprott, etc.
One warning, I trade baskets more than being stock specific. Others are far better at picking individual companies, so I just group 8 or so names together (weighted by volatility).
I noticed that HUI 490+/- level the other day, too, and agree with your take on it.
Miners should get a serious bounce off of the level they bounced today, but if gold breaks down further they will be almost certainly testing the lows.
The hammer in uxg looked tasty so I took a small bite, but I don’t really like to go long these stocks without doing proper dd first.
you could be right on miners. Also, I’d like to see some more air come out of the $CRB, maybe down to 290 or so before we get moving higher again.
Yep, and UXG is exploration stage. I wanted some exposure there, and believe Rob McEwen can make that one work. Very volatile, so adjust size appropriately. It moves 15%/day often enough.
Also have some GPL, though I’m not inclined to add to that one. Plenty of names to pick from, now that the group got clobbered.
Reading “Affluenza” and “The Grapes Of Wrath” concurrently.
I’m sure you all wanted to know..
just watch the movie and be done with it.
Sometimes, you have to read the book.
Technically miners were due to bounce hard today…I am not entering miners yet so didn’t think to mention it…I apologize.
I’m not buying today, either. I’ve seen big gains turn into a loss. It’s manageable, but since I didn’t get the last sharp move correct, won’t pick up more until either profitable and then pull back, or total washout alongside Gary.
I have enough for now.
Gold has been fighting off the rising dollar since last night, it’s still flat, but has been going up at times with the dollar. Just an observation.
The Oil Factor (Protect Yourself and Profit from the Coming Energy Crisis)
Twilight in the Desert (The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy)
Epicenter (Why the Current Rumblings in the Middle East Will Change Your Future)
Casinos in the red today. Banks in the red too.
You seem to be covering an entire region there.
The only time I planned on actually going old turkey in miners was at a test of the 490-500lows, no sooner…thats why I bailed out of miners as soon as I felt the breakout was looking more like miners were mountain climbers (the second day after they topped I was out) My thinking was that gold was extremely stretched and would almost certainly retrace to a certain MA, and this would cause miners to drop to atleast the lows. If gold decides not to drop to the level I expect 1460-80, then I think we may have just witnessed the bottom for miners. If gold pulls back to around the 200 I think we will see miners reverse and test todays level again before rallying with gold.
It’s all about Babylon (Iraq), Roman Empire (EU) and tiny Israel.
Always has been.
Myagi: tell me when you finish Grapes of Wrath that it doesn’t have the strangest ending to any book you’ve read…movie is pretty neat just because of the cinamatography from the time.
ROFLOL with AkLaunch, Thanks for sharing!
Some ETF’s having very confusing stats.
Example … the high for the day on one that I sold today is lower than the price I sold it at …
There goes Silver back below 30 again.
Will gold make it back up and hold the 1620 line?
Boys just got back from lunch…
What gold does today isn’t the question. It’s what it does during the selling climax that is coming due. Do they throw out the baby with the bath water or not?
Hard to say on gold, but I think they do with the miners.
Of course that will setup one hell of a buying opportunity in the next week or two.
The fed just announced more POMO and the market isn’t reacting to the upside. The invisible hand of the market probably knows things are really bad…
one L ofa battle defending 1140
Earlier I asked if you’re inclined to hold Old Turkey style through a B wave decline, should you ride an A wave sufficiently?
I’ll let you know what I think of the ending when I’m done. I have seen the film, quite good. I bet if they remade it today there would be non stop music and guns and sex.
Check out the chart on XG, down from over $15 in mid-July, now $5.86!
Here’s a nice bubble chart by facesincabs, a twitter member.
Check out the chart on EK…
Sorry I don’t read the blog posts much anymore. Too many for me to keep up.
I would try to avoid it with all but a small core position. As I’ve said before most subscribers can’t hold through an intermediate degree decline so I do my best to avoid them even if it means I exit a little early.
Thanks. I’m gonna do my best to ride through that one too depending on how heavy I get into the D-wave. I might have to trim some into the A-wave, but will try to minimize that.
I actually thought EK was already out of business!
It’s hard to believe anybody would sell their silver down here, even if it goes lower. I intend to buy more physical through Oct.
Maybe by the time Nov rolls around I’ll be entirely out of digital fiat.
ek–old school finished.
I feel like I am watching a tennis match on some of these charts.
My heart goes out to all people (I bet there are many grandmothers out there who have owned the stock for years) who have held ek all the way.
Who would have thought 20 years ago that Kodak’s technology would become useless and worthless? It would have taken a really visionary guy to figure that out.
My guess is t, vz, etc will one day go the way of kodak after Google, Microsoft and Lightsquared corner them into a tight stop. All those juicy dividends? The invisible hand knows something.
corn getting pummled—maybe this thing brings down small farmers.
best business is a dentist—escape all health care crap but freely raise prices.
If it were made today they’d show the proper book ending as well..probably give Rose Of Sharon a different name too 🙂
when the market gets to the lows of the day it looks like a lot of buyers are coming in?
Comment about ek from a silver conspiracy nut I read just now:
“The banker raid on silver probably blew up their hedgebook and pushed them over the edge. Good job banker cartel.”
To me, the fact that the S&P look like they’re going out on the lows on the last day of the quarter portends more strong selling next week.
If they couldn’t mark them up today, no need to keep them long next week.
I left Ameritrade 6 years ago for the same reason. Always crashed on volatile days and missed some great opportunities. One day I just had enough of it and moved to Interactive brokers. Smooth sailing from there, not a single system crash in 6 years. Low fees.
Still long the buck.
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Looks like the dow:gold ratio is getting ready for it’s next leg down. Clear backtest and failure to recover 7 on the weekly chart: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU:$GOLD&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p53568263355.
Nasdaq lower trendline punctured, leaking.
Keeping the SQQQ on until next week.
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Come next week if a melt down occurs, will we even want to touch options given what volatility will likely be, or would we be better off to go with something like AGQ for leverage? I mean to go long metals, of course.
I was incorrect earlier about the fund TGLDX and the “performance fee”.
It’s actually charged on the Sprott Gold and Precious Minerals Fund, and it’s TEN % of the amount they beat the S&P/TSX Global Gold Index, on top of a 2.5% annual management fee. That’s a hefty charge!
That is a hefty charge. Thanks
Myagi… back at you 100% cash.
Feels odd doesnt it?
still kicking the $ futures =)
posts 401-407 do not display
I guess they must have been deleted.
Interesting week. Interesting times.
If you open up the SLV chart and use the Fibonacci tool and set zero to the Feb 1st low of 2010 and 100% to the high at the end of April kind of an interesting thing happens. Today kissed and stopped at the 62% retracement line. Also strong support lies at the same place from the big dip in January of this year. If that line does not hold Silver will be stupidly cheap.
I think I’ve figured out what causes your comments to get flagged as spam.
When one posts the same comment numerous times and deletes it because of a spelling mistake or you want to revise the text blogger flags that as spam.
Slow down. Proof your comment before publishing and you probably won’t have trouble with blogger anymore.
here is a better idea TZ…just type you comments first on Notepad or word, etc, edit them and then cut and paste. I suspect it will take less time and certainly much less frustration on your part.
My guess, silver will be stupidly cheap. Rallies so soon are suspect. Time can heal wounds. But has any time passed? No.
Thinkorswim Clients Miss Morning Trading
Some clients at TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. (AMTD) weren’t able to get into their Thinkorswim accounts this morning.
“We encountered some issues just after market open this morning that impacted some of our clients, particularly those on our Thinkorswim downloadable trading platform,” Kim Hillyer, a spokeswoman for Omaha, Nebraska-based TD Ameritrade, said in an e-mail. “We were able to implement a resolution mid-morning, and clients were able to use all of the platform’s functionality thereafter.”
Rick Arroyave, a 48-year-old trader in Dallas, said he couldn’t log in to make a trade after the stock market opened. A message was displayed on the website for users with a phone number to call. He was able to access his account at about 10:50 a.m. New York time.
“It’s an absolute mess,” said Arroyave, who’s been using Thinkorswim for about five years to trade stocks, options and futures. “I’m going to have to look at alternatives because this is not reliable.”
In 2009 TD Ameritrade bought options brokerage Thinkorswim Group Inc. for $749 million to expand beyond equities. The online broker transferred more than 250,000 Thinkorswim accounts to the TD Ameritrade platform in August. Some clients experienced issues with electronic trades in August following the integration.
Thanks. Kinda neat. “Dollar should see 6-11 weeks more upside.” I would not be surprised.
SF Giants Fan,
Interesting he says we are done with the correction.
Done with the correction in what?
Gold, swing takes place, ready to buy. He doesn’t seem to expect any lower price in gold.
If USD rallies for 6-11 weeks, gold will feel pain. 1/2 of what the blogger said can be disregarded. He may be 50% right, but he’s also 50% wrong.
The dollar trade is almost certainly on it’s last leg up. Next week will more than likely be an intermediate top.
Sentiment is over the top bullish on the dollar right now(contrary indicator).
What sentiment indicators do you like? Thanks.
sentimentrader.com is the best there is.
I wonder how skewed sentiment will be if there is a head fake rally next week.
Unlikely. It’s too deep into the daily cycle at this point for any rallies. Next week the stock market should get serious about discounting a bad employment report on Friday.
The dollar has resumed its upward momentum and any break above the 79 resistance zone should quickly send the dollar up another two or three points till it hits the next resistance level at 81.
A stock market already in an accelerating downtrend will never be able fight the headwinds (maybe I should say hurricane) of a strongly rallying dollar.
That makes sense. Thanks.
Capital3x Performance sheet
+3350 Pips in the most volatile month of the year.
Unbelievable clueless news reporter
Gold backed by Nothing
US dollar backed by. Government
That is unbelievable !
I watched that yesterday. Absolutly amazing isn`t it? Man it`s gonna get bad!
Right now I see the dollar showing signs of weakness at the top here…using the UUP and UDN
The whole world seems to be buying the strong dollar trade, rally to the moon, but I see resistance at 79 from NOV & DEC last yr.
UUP looks to be topping, weaker buying on the way back up here.
So everyones buying the long dollar…but I dont see the additional “BUYING” up here.
Thanks for your sharing your dollar chart. Your insights sure help the learning curve. Thank you.
Actually many up trends start with strong volume that almost always fades as the rally progresses. And it’s not unusual to have a strong trend begin on weak volume.
Actually volume isn’t a very good predictor of trend’s strength or duration historically.
Gary, if you change brokers definitely consider Interactive Brokers.You can link all your accounts and trade equities, futures and Forex from one platform.The learning curve is simple and IMO is the Cadillac of brokers and I’ve pretty much used them all.BTW, my GDX bollinger band crash system gave a buy on Friday but quite often will generate multiple buy signals before bottoming for good.
Actually the last BB crash trade occurred last Friday and completed a profitable trade on the next Monday.
Friday’s action did not trigger a BB crash trade unless your BB system uses different rules than the standard BB rules.
Hmm I take that back, the first BB trade signaled on Thursday Sept 22. That trade is still open.
An added bonus with IB is their security. They provide you with a couple of hundred 3 digit codes on a driver’s license size plastic card and prompt you use 2 different ones every time you log in, and the codes are different for each client.
Gary,my buy setting is a little different than yours and the sell on mine is very different.
I wonder if Morgan Stanley is the next black swan…
Any advice on where to purchase physical bullion?
I know about APMEX, but just wanted others opinions.