1,092 thoughts on “portfolio change

  1. Elaine

    I think I’m better off not trading for awhile. I missed selling yesterday so I sold 50% this morning for a loss. This really is getting to be day trading, which I personally am not able to devote the time to.

    thank you.

  2. Clarkatroid

    im liking the action in miners here also. resisting a 50 point drop in gold and finishing level for the day feels pretty bullish

    how quickly things turn around, i felt like throwing up this morning starring into the abyss lol

  3. ckpc

    I agree with Elaine.

    The miners were being accumulated throughout the day, and the trend was clearly established before the “12:52” post. 8 minutes notice is hardly helpful.
    All this skittish jumping into and out of positions is not for me.

  4. Mean Guy

    This is making rest of my hair fall out.
    Missed the call yesterday, sold NUGT on the open, only to buy back twice during the day. But I do love it so. Hope it holds a couple days so I can go outside because I am starting to get stinky.

  5. funmike

    I haven’t been able to time the trades well enough. I am often not available at the close and to try and keep up I go after hours and it is working against me. I have no sense of what we are trying to accomplish. The next move I make I think I will sell at any profit and considering it risky to hold for more than a day or two.

  6. David

    I have certainly shared Elaine’s frustration this summer.

    But the reality is that Gary made the right call yesterday and sidestepped this morning’s decline.

    He also made the right call in getting back in based on today’s surprising strength in miners. I was skeptical yesterday but bought back in today.

    The fact is that we are at the top of a C-wave and our trigger fingers are going to have to be very itchy.

    I personally am looking forward to the D-wave so I can go all in and go old turkey for a few years, but we’re not there yet.

  7. Gary

    There are some folks that believe that the only place one is allowed to make money is in precious metals. Personally I could care less whether I make money in stocks precious metals, oil, or shorting. I just want to be profitable.

    Those folks are going to buy every dip and they are going to look like geniuses until they get caught in the D-Wave, and then they are going to lose most or all of their profits because of their perma strategies.

    I simply refuse to make that mistake. I “think” gold is going to consolidate, and the action in the miners today suggests that it is going to consolidate, and if that’s the case we will continue to ride GDX until I think it’s time to exit (which will almost certainly be early).

    But just because I think it’s going to do something doesn’t mean I should ignore the warning signs that popped up yesterday and the extreme sentiment levels we are seeing.

    The fact is all we did was lighten up and miss all of the pain of today’s early sell off and then buy back at almost exactly the same level we sold.

    If you missed the sell signal yesterday then yes your entries and exits are not perfect. But you still made the correct choice because without the benefit of hindsight the miners could have just as easily continued down hard today. If that was the case then you would have been very glad to have sold this morning.

    Unfortunately trading in hindsight is only good for chest beating and I told you so’s. It doesn’t work in the real world.

  8. David

    If you can’t deal with all the trades, it may make sense to just go to a core position (33% or something) and wait for the D-wave bottom to go to a full position.

  9. Elaine

    Gary,

    I am not criticizing you, I know you are making money and those able to follow you exactly are making money.

    I still have GDX in an account that I missed the sell on last Friday or whenever. I bought it at $62. I’m going to hang on to that for the short term.

    I agree that I don’t care how I make money, with PMs, QQQs what ever, it’s just too much for me to manage this level of trading right now.

  10. sophia

    Gary,

    I have to say that your calls have been amazing. Even if I missed some of them and it costed me sleep and anxiety, I really, I mean really aporeciate your calls even 5 minutes before the close.
    Thanks again for being so generous of your time and knowledge !

  11. funmike

    I also don’t care how I make money as long as I AM making money. Gary you have been accurate in your calls but catching them in real time has been a real issue here lately. What I would like to get a sense of is your decision making process so that I could also reciognize a warning sign in real time.

  12. Poly

    One suggestion that might be attractive to many. Just buy and hold a solid core, you know old turkey, it’s a bull market after all! There ain’t no bull market like a Gold Bull Market. Maybe a solid 15% bullion 15% miners core holding that you never worry about. Only time you think about selling it is when the cycles fail signalling a D-Wave.

  13. DP

    Poly —

    “…Only time you think about selling it is when the cycles fail signalling a D-Wave…”

    Please, how do you identify cycles failure and what does it mean?

  14. PressurePointAdmin

    I think some peoples expectations on this site are grossly inflated. Garys subscription cost is absolutely pittance when compaed with the profits ive already made after being here a month. His service is probably worth ten fold, his calls and analysis has been first rate. He is only a handful of guys that i sit up and take note of and he is providing a sterling service at bargain prices. If you miss his posts then maybe you should devote more time to trading and if you cant do that then maybe consider whether this is the right game for you. Gary is typically not a high volume trader but his manouvering has saved/made people a lot of money. So stop the winging.

  15. StupidMovingAverage50/200

    Does GDX actually hold the stocks, or is it a derative, or partial derative? Seems like most any mining mutual fund would make a good choice for a core holding. Remember the discussion about buying miners in leu of storing physical gold burried in your back yard?

    SLW is 4.85% of GDX and the #6 holding.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hl?s=GDX+Holdings

    Now makes a lot of sense for a least a 10% core holding of miners and bullion deravitives. Remember the discussion about using stops to exit positions?

    Stops can be just mental reminders to get out after a 3% loss. GDX opened down about 2.5% this morning, so I knew to wait to see if the gap would fill this morning before selling.

  16. Poly

    DP,

    In very simple terms, obviously $1,706 is now a DCL, so if this daily cycle were to violate that low, it would be a failed daily cycle. With gold’s weekly (IT cycle still a relatively young 10 weeks, it would signal a significant 6-12 week decline ahead before finding a ICL.
    As you can see, even with a parabolic looking run to date, the cycles are in a favorable alignment and should be bought/trusted, until proven otherwise.

    As for core holdings, I love the great mutual fund TGLDX, it’s the number 1 performer over 10 years. $10k invested worth over $130k, buy and hold, D-Wave’s and 8 yr cycles included ๐Ÿ™‚

  17. Farm Girl

    DP – the chickens are real, 44 hens and one very lucky rooster.

    Now 50% in SPY and 16% in NUGT for Obama’s speech. Will take NUGT up if gold breaks over 1840. Too many poor technology reports recently for me to buy the Qs.

  18. Leilani

    Elaine,

    This is the routine I have established and I hope it helps.

    I wake up at least 30 minutes before the market opens and check to see if there is any portfolio changes and what the premarket is doing. The first and the last hour of trading is the most important. Also during the last hour of trading, I will check constantly for any portfolio changes (regardless to what was said in the previous nightly report). After the close of market, I summarize my allocations on a sheet of paper so I will have it available just in case I need to make any quick moves the next day. Lastly, I read the nightly report.

    It is a lot of work. You can’t let someone else management your money because no one cares more about your acct then yourself. I have made a lot of mistakes (missing calls or thinking I know better than Gary) but I am learning to be a better investor/trader all around with Gary. Gary has been great with navigating thru this volatile and tough market. Elaine – I hope this helps.

  19. Veronica

    The 9 day displaced MA on gold held on a closing basis, and the gold stocks had a huge outperformance. So far Gary’s triangle call is right on.Gold also retraced 61.8% of it’s most recent rally which is still normal behavior.

  20. basil

    Gary missed an entire summer rally in gold and also silver (that was 60% in AGQ and in DGP – the suggestion to sell silver was given after the crash, and the suggestion to sell gold was given at the absolute bottom of a short term correction). There were a few other trades over the course of the summer, but these were usually exited quickly again, and therefore profits (if any) were less than marginal. Unless there was some enormous trade between two weeks ago (when I canceled my subscription and now), the trades of the past six months were leading to absolutely nothing. Now, you can all write what you want including your devotion posts to Gary and Gary can write as many ‘know it all’ posts as he wants, but these remain the facts – end of story. Not for one second I believe that Gary is making a cent more in this market than… say Beanie. Fact is also, if you write a public blog, give financial advice, and charge for subscriptions, you might as well be criticized if practically none of what you write pans out.
    Hate me for my posts, I couldn’t care less. Good trading to all.

  21. David

    Basil,

    People can read their own account statements. If they’re making money, they know it. If they’re not making money, they will probably move on to the next guru. Either way, your opinion on the matter probably doesn’t make much difference.

  22. basil

    If the two posts a month I write give you so much pain, you are really in trouble. Just don’t read them would be one way to go about it. Also, I don’t need to read anyone’s account statements, I just read Gary’s posts and compare them to how the charts look like soon thereafter. For that very reason, even if I’d stay away, your pain would unfortunately still be there.

  23. Gary

    Basil,
    The model portfolio hasn’t had a losing trade in a long time. Even missing the top in silver was still a huge winner if you entered back in the fall when most of us did.

    So what if we missed a big chunk of the last rally in gold it was mostly given back in two days where we got back on BTW (miners).

    If this does turn out to be a top your perma view will get you caught in the D-wave while the rest of us will have locked up our profits.

    I’ve been doing this a long time and you aren’t going to side track me with this nonsense.

  24. Veronica

    At Ease,maybe today was the bottom or marginally down tomorrow/Friday? If we see much more weakness my system will go to a sell. The 9 day displaced average is flat to down through the 13th and will start to rise then.

  25. mikezza

    basil
    you really are a petty little man. why even follow this site any more if you no longer are a subscriber and think gary gives lousy advice? i would hope that you have better ways to spend your time than trolling sites trying to start arguments. you must be a sad lonely man and i feel sorry for you.

  26. basil

    Gary,
    to begin with, you once wrote that you’re doing this for ten years, and that is not that long a time by my standards. I really don’t know your long term track record, but your short term track record most certainly fails to convince. I am not a perma gold bull; in fact, it was your perma D-wave talk for the past five months that talked me out of gold; it was your only trade I followed, and it cost me handsomely. As we all know, every one is responsible for their own trades (no need to write another ten posts about that) but please 60% in DGP and AGQ? If that D wave will never happen you just lost your positions in both silver and gold and will have to buy back much higher. Of course, there will be corrections to come, but 21 in silver and 1200 or whatever in gold – that’s Prechter talk.

  27. basil

    Mikezza,
    why getting personal? If you write posts like this, it is obvious that you are writing posts about your own self. You are just projecting on me. That’s psychology 101.

  28. basil

    David,

    I don’t spend much time visiting this site. I’ll be back once in a while and write the comment that I feel like writing. Thank you.

    ok, folks, I leave you to it.

  29. mikezza

    basil
    you’re on to me. guilty as charged. seriously man, if you can’t see that your just carrying a grudge that you can’t let go of, than no post is going to talk any sense into you. let me ask you this though. what is your motivation for continuing to visit this site and making posts putting down gary’s track record? just get over it and move on.

  30. Haggerty

    Yea I got hurt a little today too. I am working all day and no where near the computer so My positions sold at the open because of my stops.

    This is the Game and very difficult times, if you stick with it and have a long term view we are all going to win.

    Going to bed

  31. RJ

    Does this “theory” make sense?

    The SNB devalues their currency, shooting up the value of their gold in Franks. They then dump gold on the open market driving down the price of gold in US dollars. They then use US dollars to buy back that gold much cheaper.

    A different type of currency war with gold center stage.

  32. Elaine

    Leilani,

    Thank you for your help. It is sound advice. I am comfortable staying out of the market for a month or more at a time, which is what I will probably do.

    The trades have been too rapid-fire for me and I have a lot of other things happening.

    You are correct, my money is more important to me than it is to anyone else.

    Best

    Elaine

  33. mikezza

    basil
    and the need to do it every few weeks? seems like you either want to keep reminding gary that his advice lost you money or you are trying to talk other potential subscribers out of joining. existing subscribers can judge gary’s advice for themselves.

  34. Poly

    @at ease,

    Hard to answer the core allocation question as I have numerous accounts (trading/retirement/Long Family) that have different strategies/objectives. In the non trading accounts it’s as high as 30% now. The trading accounts are always in with core positions too except in the timing for expected ICL’s were they would be zero.

    Gold doing well in the A.H…….although its Asian trading ๐Ÿ™‚

    Good night.

  35. marksomething

    Basil,

    I lost 35+% of my account (in the may silver crash) because of my ignorance. Then Me and my roomate found gary. By following the model portfolio I have made all that money back. I used greater position sizes than recommended.

    but I MADE ALL THAT CASH BACK. You must be drowning your sorrows because Gary and his moves work.

    If you have nothing positive to contribute just chill out, relax and stop blaming others for your mis(sed)fortunes.

    or go play the lottery, better here of making money.

  36. William Wallace

    Poly,

    Good move on adding on today’s puke. I also added to my GDX near the low and put back on the NUGT before the close, took it off yesterday near the high. I took your post on your adding to GDX as confirmation of my move. Keep firing off those posts, good to see you so active on the blog at this point in gold, I’m sure many would agree with me that, as you always say, you continue to give us some perspective and it’s appreciated.

  37. chrisb

    Gary… just keep doing what you are doing! This is a very difficult market, and requires quick changes to stay ahead. Your ability to react to the changing markets is first rate.

  38. William Wallace

    Miyagi,

    Been trading more frequently during the day, working on the house also, was doing electric last few days. Trying to stay on top of all your posts, hope to be back on the blog more again soon, need a rest so probably be trading less next week. We have some lottery calls to catch up on!

  39. Brutus maximus

    I have to side with basil on this one… to read Gary`s posts and opinions was fun over the last 12 month on the subscription site but it has more distracted me from my own analysis and opinions which of course is not Gary`s fault. Maybe it is a very good idea like “PressurePointAdmin“ pointed out to increase the subscription price substantially to raise the level of his website and timeliness of Gary`s trading calls. Compared to others I have to say it could use some professional help from web designers to increase functionality but I guess Gary is a simple kind of guy and thats how he likes it. For me unfortunately it was not worth it to continue my subscription but I hope you guys and of course Gary will make a lot money in 2011.

  40. Slumdog

    You were to me disasterously wrong, Gary.

    I called a right shoulder slump and bounce. That’s exactly what happened.

    Because you don’t see reality the way I do, I will read your comments about what I see the same way I would anyone else… of no weight. This time, I lost my trust in myself and abandoned my positions.

    Next time, I’ll call it elsewhere, and that’s just peachy. The bottomline is that I win in most of my calls. This was a high probability call which you challenged. You do your thing, which I subscribe to and which I see as helpful when I can’t see. But when I see, like others, I’ll go with “me” as the winner.

  41. Harry

    Not worth it?! If you’re managing a portfolio of more than a few thousand dollars you’ll have made more than the yearly subscription fee on the GDX trade alone by the morning bell.

  42. DP

    Poly —

    Thanks for clarifying “failed cycles” meaning and sharing your tools and understanding.

    I appreciate the value you are
    bringing to the blog.

  43. DP

    Farm Girl —

    I wish I were in your rooster shoes ๐Ÿ™‚

    Please don’t boil him for the soup.

    It’s an amazing world we are living in — Farm Girl is feeding chickens in between of international trades.

    Which part of the Planet you live in, BTW?

  44. Avann

    Brutus I completely understand your choice in discontinuing … I do not agree but I get it. However, how exactly would increasing the subscription help to make gary’s calls any better?
    Id also like to point out the probably very many subs do not have time or tools to do their own analysis (me) so what Gary offers to us is indispensable, for those of you that believe you can read and analyze the market better then Gary … Good for you and good luck. From the rest of us who cannot … Thank you Gary!

  45. Shalom Bernanke

    If I’m not mistaken, Slumdog said he’s not even a subscriber, and Basil has flip-flopped being a sub then unsubscribing a couple times.

    They’re crybabies if you ask me, and Basil’s flip-flopping on Gary’s subscription is probably something he carries into his trading, never a recipe for success.

    Sounds to me like they don’t have any miners. ๐Ÿ™‚

  46. Clarkatroid

    wow, i guess its beat up gary time again.

    this usually happens after he makes a mistake, not after he picks out 10 winning and one break even trade back to back.

    im 40k up this summer thanks to dipping in and out with the recommendations.

    Do i like the flip flopping, no.

    Do i want to sit old turkey, yes.

    But the bottom line is this blog and subscription does exactly what it supposed to….. make money, and in these conditions thats an incredible achievement imho

  47. Shalom Bernanke

    Do these clowns really believe that Gary would only charge $200/year for doing all their trading for them?

    I still think Gary should dump the “model portfolio %”, as he cannot know an individuals risk tolerance, so it’ll always be too heavy or too light. It should be enough to say he’s buying or selling something.

    Raising the subscription price will NOT raise the bar on this blog, instead it’ll only give whiners more reason to bitch when they can’t exercise enough discipline to make money.

    Enough on that, back to my morning reading.

  48. Shalom Bernanke

    Farm Girl,

    Thanks for the article. I’m not long miners because of it, but I sure hope the government starts confiscating gold. The last time that happened, miners exploded higher for years.

    Thumbs up for chickens! We haven’t eaten a store-bought, hormone and antibiotic infused egg for years. Chickens are my close second favorite animal after dogs, and the chickens are far more useful. Plus, they never leave the property like dogs will try. ๐Ÿ™‚

  49. ...at ease

    Poly,
    I can’t wait to load up for my core position to continue holding. If it weren’t for that pesky D wave looming overhead. Thanks for your insights, and explanations, it really helps.

  50. Michael

    Just getting on after being off for a while…

    Poly, I must say you made an excellent call yesterday.. while everyone else was talking about the direness of the decline, you were buying…now your additions are up some 3% with this mornings opening and you have very close stops… you must be commended for that trade…

    SB, you too are to be commended for the anchor that you are.. you stick to your plan regardless of the daily wiggles…

  51. marksomething

    just like hui has been consolidating, the opinions of those trading big (smart) money is consolidating too. all those people back from vacation this week are discussing amongst themselves where to attack next. people consolidate every bit as much as the markets they try to trade.

    we’ll soon find out what goes where and what pieces will fit together.

  52. St. Deluise

    really seems to be stocks vs. gold here. who will win as the preferred medium to escape currency?

    i’m thinking stocks, for the next few days at least. SPY at yesterday’s vwap now with postive buy volume divergence day over day.

  53. dipshit

    Is there anyway to access TSO for free?

    I signed up to TOS, but they just said I have to fund the account for $3k before I can use it. Wonder if they accept gold in the ground? Still trying to pay the rent with bear money winnings.

  54. St. Deluise

    yes you can use their software to papertrade for free.

    i think quote speeds are marginally delayed however but unless you’re a computer it shouldn’t matter.

  55. Moneyman

    Will be very interesting to see if the stockmarket can go higher here together with gold or if gold falls back when the market goes higher?

    And I think that Bernanke will try to take down the dollar today and force the market higher..

    It will indeed be interesting if gold and the market rally together higher..?!

    Take care all!

  56. rowlin

    Slumdog, that was a good call on gold, I ended up holding on to my futures positions after reading your posts. Gary’s call was right on the miners also, and could turn about to be right about forming a triangle. It’s a tough market and plenty of opinins. I wouldn’t get discouraged over one disagreement.

  57. n1tro

    I dont know what all the moaning is about yesterday and the call to get out and then jump back into nugt!? If anyone read around, a clear explanation for gold’s sudden drop overnight yesterday is seen in this graph…

    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-J1yrBEfNd_Y/TmcDcN2u9MI/AAAAAAAAAnI/8rouIjRglek/s1600/snapshot-880.png

    Gary, you acknowledge their is manipulation in the currency markets but not in metals. Looking at the graph and not at knowing what the currency pair is, I would think any trader would say manipulation. Facts…the big ass 1 min candle, overnight trade when volume is light, all those contracts executed at once within the minute….

    I saw that graph and the facts and took it as a classic shakeout and held onto my nugt positions.

    I know Gary doesn’t like reading other people’s blogs, especially blogs that cry manipulation more often than not because it clouds his judgement but for the subs, it is beneficial to read a few other people’s opinions because Gary ain’t perfect before blaming him for flip flopping.

  58. dipshit

    How do I display VWAP on TOS?

    Signing out for now…
    Researching studies on TOS to figure out how to display RSI and MACD. Already found Slow Stochastics on Lower Studies…
    Oh boy. What fun…

  59. marksomething

    flip flopping is a sign of intelligence. Americans do not like FF because of laziness. Americans want other people to do their thinking for them.

    and that the gov’ts aim. to make Americans lazy, keep them under-educated and ready to go to war whenever someone flips them the bird.

    re-read platos republic and pay attention to his definition of tyranny. very apt.

    then read manufacturing consent by Noam chomsky. will blow yer mind

  60. DG

    Whew! Just finished my third day of 8-hour teaching at the United Nations in Italy. I’m exhausted (was able to teach in English though—thank God.). Just thought to pop in to say I am pleased with and sticking with my three horses: QLD (bought more this morning), EUO, and GDX. Each is up today which is unusual, but I’ll take it. I agree we will hit 1260 or so on SPX, and I will probably sell the QLD and go short at that point. I expect/hope to make a lot of money on the short side over the next 12 months. Get a good entry and go Old Turkey with a core. Cover at break even if you have to. Add and cover as appropriate when mini-panics hit.

  61. St. Deluise

    things are probably going to be pretty boring until one of these happen:

    /es breaks 1199.75 *AND* /gc breaks 1849.2
    or
    /gc breaks 1868.7 *AND* /es breaks 1180.25

  62. Keys

    Well just taggin in to say hello…This market ain’t for me…nothing wrong with trading, just too much for my fancy.

    Seems like nothing has changed…in, out, in, out, out….

    Looked forward to a solid set-up soon…but until then falling asleep!

    The big issue is long-term we are set to fall in almost everything, but of course QE may come back at any point too…

    Fun fun times…

    Still holding my core unhedged, but watching gold bounce around like it needs its meds.

  63. Keys

    The only thing I will say about going old turkey on miners are the following.

    1) You still have individual risk…GDX GDXJ not so much, so fine.

    2) Energy costs affect margins…if oil surges due to QE or whatever miners may not do as well

    3) Gov tend to turn on their citizens during times of despair. IF main street and wall street are doing poorly, and gold is up and miners are really soaring, I would expect the gov to tax the crap out of them.

    4) Possibility of seizing gold again, not likely but indirectly very possible. For example if gold is the only asset class increasing, simply stating that gold no longer applies to capital gain rules, and is taxed as income will do enough.

    Therefore in my opinion, the only core that I will hold old turkey is physical gold. Silver I don’t think I will every hold as a core again…long-term hold, sure, but not as an old turkey play.

    Just thoughts….

  64. Harry

    SB, good suggestion for Gary to remove the model portfolio %’s. That’s a decision people have to make for themselves. Doc doesn’t have them…

  65. Shalom Bernanke

    Keys,

    Seizing gold in 1933 might have been the catalyst for miners to skyrocket. Perhaps it was because miners were the only way to own gold, and people knew gold would be revalued higher.

    Who knows?

  66. LowTax

    Anybody have advice regarding the Perth Mint or other similar vehicles? Seems like a great way to diversify jurisdictions with actual physical holdings… I think this has been asked before so I apologize for the recurring spam ๐Ÿ™‚

  67. Leo

    Keys (and other anti-govm’t paranoiacs),

    Don’t you get tired of your own crap? This congress cannot pass ANYTHING at all. Do you really think that raising taxes on gold (which is a teeny-weeny portion of the market and will bring next to no additional revenues to the treasury) is something that would even make it to the floor of the house?

    Sorry if I sound just a bit peeved but I am so tired of this “confiscate gold” nonsense…

  68. Keys

    SB,

    Good point…only my point a view of course.

    Your point is another reason why I choose to hold physical…I doubt they will confiscate again, but maybe through taxes…at which point, if things are that bad I may simply renounce citizenship and move on.

    And I am not referring to buying miners ever, just that I know I will not consider an old turkey strategy with them. Different layers I suppose. At the bottom of the D I am sure I will pick something up.

  69. Keys

    Leo,

    First off relax….I didn’t say they would confiscate it. I said if the miners were the only profitable business at the point in time due to a severe wall street and main street collapse, they may tax the crap out of it. Governments are known for this…especially miners in emerging markets…

  70. DG

    Razvan: Thanks for the invite. I have 11 more training programs in September in five states. October should open up a bit and I can post more often again.

  71. Salty

    Gary,

    Check on road conditions at your destination in NY before you go. Many areas are flooded and people are being told to stay off the roads. Hope your destination is not affected.

  72. Gary

    Slumdog,
    All we did yesterday was take profits on a partial position and then completely avoid the scary drawdown and then reenter at almost exactly the same place that we exited.

    You’re complaining about avoiding a drawdown?

    Seriously?

  73. St. Deluise

    it seems like the entire reasoning behind buying gold at these prices is that bernanke is going to superceed the president & the senate and print 10 gazillion dollars every single time he opens his mouth to say anything anywhere. and when he doesn’t it’s always “next time”.

    truly don’t understand it. the market is not collapsing. the demand for US bonds is insane. there is no deflation anywhere. the leading GOP candidate is threatening the fed and spouting nonesense about “keynesism” and that SS is a “ponzi”.

    not saying it won’t happen, but the chances of it happening any time soon seem really, really small given with respect to how many people think otherwise.

  74. Frank

    NG: the latest increase in capital costs for Donlin Creek.

    Never liked NG. Plus you have (had?) lots of big hedge funds who may pull out on bad news like this.

    But SVM looks better today, eh?

    Meanwhile RGLD is looking Wheatonish. And NGD is a juggernaut.

    GSS might be a buy today if you don’t have a position yet?

  75. William Wallace

    If the market closes near its lows im adding to the SQQQ I put on before the Ben speech. Obama will ignite the next leg down. Taking off the NUGT if miners dont rally into the close.

  76. LowTax

    elaine, it’s not my intent to detract from Gary’s fantastic work and subscription service or to pimp for somemebody else but I am a long time subscriber of another newsletter that has proven itself, to me anyways, for many years now, even accounting for the last two big crashes.

    It involves A LOT less trading than what Gary does and still manages a very sizable return, especially when taking into account volatility and risk.

    The only drawback I can see to it is that the gentleman who runs it is getting long in the tooth and may not be with us for many more years ๐Ÿ™

    If you think you might be interested, drop me a line at anicolici*at*hotmail*dot*com.

  77. William Wallace

    Miyagi,

    From what im seeing it looks like the market is playing out exactly as it did in 08 when it broke down from the head and shoulders, if it continues we will be seeing a new low around 2300 in the Nasdaq probably next week before a bear market rally begins. I dont think Obama’s speech will rally the market tomorrow. Miners are looking tired.

  78. Gary

    The HUI is up 1.5% what’s “tired” about that?

    The S&P is just trying to get through resistance at 1200 despite a strong dollar. Nothing wrong there that I can see. We don’t have any large selling on strength days.

  79. mikezza

    willy wally
    i have a same thoughts as you and expect the market to retest the lows from early august before the real bear market rally starts. wondering why you think the miners look tired though.

  80. Gary

    Does the multiple SoS numbers in many miners today mean you should sell?

    I seem to recall someone yesterday using the paltry BoW numbers in miners yesterday as a buy signal ๐Ÿ™‚

  81. Hack

    Gold up on no QE3 announcement so it looks as if the Eurotrash are driving the price of gold. This means that gold will only correct when Europe magically solves their problems…

  82. DP

    Gary —

    Some of my posts on the premium site marked as “Your comment is awaiting moderation ”

    Did you turn moderation on?

  83. Poly

    “I seem to recall someone yesterday using the paltry BoW numbers in miners yesterday as a buy signal :)”

    Guilty, I guess you’re referring to me. I thought it was significant they were on that list, let’s hope it’s not now.

    Only it wasn’t a buy signal for me, I’ve been invested for many months, it’s all gravy now.

  84. Gary

    WW,
    Buyers defended the breakout. It’s unlikely we would even see another test of that level. We should have a lot of upside to go considering the size of the consolidation.

  85. Hack

    I just read a report that said gold goes up an average of 10% during Indian wedding season which is end of Sept to November. I do know that Indians and most Asians for that matter buy 24k gold and 18k for a daily wear item. We’ll see if this stat holds up…

  86. Slumdog

    Right shoulder slump and bounce.
    Filling the gap.
    Real probability it will reverse shortly to stomp the gap.
    Every indicator but one says this 1873 range again is the high.
    But what do I know.

  87. William Wallace

    Gary,

    Definitely…I was just thinking maybe a test of the breakout if gold consolidates and if closing near the lows, but looks like may be closing near the highs instead.

  88. sophia

    People are getting scaringly too negative…Newspapers, colleagues, famly, everybodyis becoming too negative..Time to shake those bad waves!

  89. sophia

    DP,

    i added too..

    matt,

    Everybody is spitting on Eur, but the FX level is 20% higher than 1 year ago… Either the dollar is going to rally like a maniac verysoon, or the markets have been overreacting and the rubber band is going to be in full action as soon as earnings come out…

  90. William Wallace

    Le Fou,

    FromRips2Returns…you yelled at me one day not knowing it was me for telling everyone to listen to Gary stop using the comments section as a blog…lol ๐Ÿ™‚

    I think you said “who made you hall monitor” lol

  91. Alex in Montana

    Investors Daily

    Last four weeks institutional buying of gold stocks has been relentless.

    Check their top ten stocks acculumulation chart every day. It’s amazing. Much better than BOW BOS from WSJ.

  92. Silverhound

    My thoughts on SPX is the last couple of weeks we have been in a relief rally / consolidation after the crash before a test of the lows and then we get a bear market rally. If we were in a bear rally now it should have been a V bottom.

  93. Le Fou

    WW,

    Just wanted to see what the posts that got hung up said, and whether they were added at the end or appeared at the time you posted.

    Good trading,
    Le Fou

  94. ALEX

    quick update:

    SB-thx for re posting my GDX chart. Gap filled ,but Its a wide channel , so if we dont power up after the speech tonight- we still have wiggle room to lower channel ($62-$63ish)– I know you dont sell out anyways, maybe you’ll buy though ๐Ÿ™‚

    PAUL

    I look at HL this way:
    (Waiting for a break out)

    http://www.screencast.com/t/nkL3tFtN5

    And today NG made it clear that it must have been a false break out from that channel and return into the downtrend channel. Earlier today…

    http://www.screencast.com/t/HhWuKL08

    SVM soldoff hard on Sept 2 and recovered QUICKLY ,
    as did AUY on AUG 3rd
    and IAG on AUG 11th –like “shake outs”

    will NG?

  95. ALEX

    I just noticed that my NG chart said on it that it was “tursday” , hhmmm

    Thats somewhere between Tuesday and Thursday I guess…but its a wkly chart, so its definitely not FRIDAY yet

    ๐Ÿ™‚

  96. Slumdog

    You’re complaining about avoiding a drawdown?

    Seriously?

    I’m a thin skinned SOB who went long, 1838 to 1806 and couldn’t get confirmation of what I posted, now twice, what I saw happening (as I’ve studied charts in a unique way nobody else did, as I was on a desert island and figured out a view that’s based on backtesting probabilities in the way I saw things). So, I bolted the trade instead of respecting my own view which I stated, right shoulder slump and bounce, further posting at Hammy’s that the bounce would fill the double gap, up and down, which today happened.

    I not only missed doubling my money, I took a loss at the exit.

    So, I’m not going to ever listen to anyone’s advice here that reacts to what I see, as I see more clearly these rare but repeating trade setups. You see in a way that I don’t. And I do in a way you don’t.

    I’m gonna leave it at that. I’m sad as this type of gift comes about only in highly stressed markets and won’t repeat in gold for one long time.

    What I’ve done is to prepare for the moments of extreme panic, with a clear understanding of the panic moments. In those, I don’t panic, save for what I interpreted as a comment that didn’t support my belief from you who I do trust.

    I’ve got a plan. I’ll just work that. I just called a probable top, 1873, expecting now a revisit of the gap below. This is what you term “consolidation” and a triangle. I just call it tromping on the gap.

  97. Gary

    Slum,
    That’s complete crap. You sold because the market didn’t do what you expected it to do. That’s what trading is all about. If the market doesn’t do what you expect you cut your losses quick and move on.

    Blaming a bad trade on somebody else’s opinion is complete horse shit.

    If you had followed the model portfolio you would have not only had profitable trades but you would’ve avoided holding through a draw down.

    I have to say I’m getting pretty damn tired of this Monday morning quarterbacking bullshit.

  98. Silverhound

    Slumdog

    Gary is a LT gold cycle guy and looks to catch the majority of long term trends. You’re trading intra day wiggles. The two styles are never going to gel. You’re probably looking in the wrong place for confirmation of your trades and you seem to have a handle on what you do so shouldn’t need it.

  99. Moneyman

    Cmon Slumdog..Nice calls lately!

    But you cant blame somebody else for a bad trade..

    Who wants to give an analysis if you get criticism for a faulty analysis.

    I sold gold yesterday..To late..And missed some of the rally today..

    But I sold because I didnt know if gold was going to 1700 or to 1873..

  100. Rick 4779

    I have said this before, but we all pay Gary for his opinion, not to make our trades for us…making trades is all on us. Some people here need to grow a set of balls and take responsibility for their own decisions.

  101. Bob loves Hawaii

    Wow Slumdog, you own your trades dude. This is an extremely tricky market right now.

    This morning we easily could have seen gold down another $100 and the miners flushing with it.

    FWIW, I am old turkey on the miners, have a small GLD long position and short oil, emerging markets, and SPY positions.

  102. Gary

    The tournament is at Locals Gym in Lynwood. lifting starts at 4 PM will probably be over by 6 PM and we’ll go have dinner after that. Anyone that wants to meet for dinner be at Locals gym by 5:30 PM.

    I’ve been to NYC many times in the past and I have to admit it’s too big and too crowded for me. I’ll probably stay in New Paltz, but anyone who wants to meet for pizza and drinks this weekend is more than welcome to come.

    Once I get the lay of the land I’ll post in one of the nightly reports where and when to meet next weekend.

  103. Slumdog

    Silverhound, Hammy trades on the minute basis and has done well. He’s just not available as he continues to work at his “job”.

    You’re 100% right. I own the trade.
    Tell that to any of the many shrinks I’ve hired so I can address who I am. In biz, I’m tough and relentless. In the market, I can see sometimes, but I’m influenced by those I trust. It’s been a helluva a life ride.
    It has to do with individuation at the age of precognition archaic. In biz, I’ve developed one tough skin, running the many things it does with SOP’s and then generosity when it seems appropriate.

    In this game, I’m too ornery to follow. So, it’ll cost me until I’m either whipped or ride well.

    In the game of Old Turkey, I’m one of the oldest here in SI, amassing a large pile of physical in 2000, and gold until recently, too.

    But when it comes to trading, I guess I better reach for the xanax. I was right on the call and bought all the way down, after the first steep drop. Then I “felt” when I posted I was feeling exposed, and ducked, instead of doing what Bernard Bernanke does, look and walk away.

    Damn. But biz is fine so no loss here is but for a pain in the butt.

    I’ll be quieter here, and just read the wisdom of some of the masters. I see it my way, and I guess I need my damn mom around… back to the therapist. LOL.

  104. Natanarchist

    I agree with Marksomething’s post at 8:23 AM

    Gary, forget the Monday Morning QB’s the critics, the cynics. Since they are not taking the exact Model Portfolio trades their claims are not applicable. Irrelevant.

    Perhaps you or one of the subs who has followed the model portfolio could answer this question. In the 3 months or so that you have had the Model portfolio, if one started with 10K, what has been the return?

    How do they get lead in Pencils?

    How do they get the Caramilk in the Cadbury bar?

    If Beanies left brain left Chicago on a train traveling 60 miles and hour powered by Solar panels and Beanies right brain left NY traveling at the same time using only Corn ethanol and traveled at 48 miles an hour, How much Gov’t subsidy would be required to have Beanies brains meet? And if we paid for that subsidy in Gold is that anti American?

    Your prompt attention to these matters would be appreciated.

    Good luck with your team this weekend.

  105. 86d4life

    Nat,
    Great post.

    Slumdog,
    I have really apreciated most of your posts. Please keep them coming.

    Gary,
    You Da Man. As usual. Thanks.

    Everybody else that posts,
    You are what makes this site Great.

    Now I`m gonna get misty…….

  106. MrMiyagi

    Ah Alex….
    Another trick question. It’s not lead, it’s graphite.

    Your wife is quite attractive, if that is the two of you in the picture that is.

  107. ALEX

    Thank you Mr. M

    Those are my grand-kids!

    J/K, that’s us. She will appreciate that!

    And thank you for the Caramilk secret!

    And “graphite! that explains everything…those prob just slide right in! Thx again. ๐Ÿ™‚

  108. Clarkatroid

    Too funny nat

    Ref percentage gain – That’s a tricky one and I’ll be interested too see others results here

    In closed out positions, not included the current qqq gdx trade , I’ve banked 7% since we re entered in the spring . That’s 7% of total portfolio which is impressive considering exposure and risk has been pretty limited.

    I use the model portfolio closely with a little tweak here and the ( for qqq trade i use EWY, msci korea as its tech heavy, liquid, and probably hit harder than any other index in the world during the crash)

    I also adjust position size. If the model portfolio is 75% in I’m all in

  109. Silverhound

    Slumdog

    mate, we all go through a bit of self doubt and butt clenching when a trade is going against us but it’s sticking to a plan without someone holding our hand or eating a loss every now and then that makes us traders right? Hope you stick around and post some.

    Natan you are bad! lol

  110. Silverhound

    Alex

    Nice charts as always.

    Here’s one of GDX showing price stalling at the old uptrend channel. May explain the resistance the last few days. We may need a bit of time to break through this. I also like the juicy target (which I’m betting you already have on your charts) if “Mr Market” is kind to us.

    GDX chart

    .

  111. rose

    further to my earlier post

    spot gold is now down to 1826

    opinions/explanations please!

    with sincere thanks in advance and with kind regards,

    rose

  112. Avann

    Eventually we have to run out of sellers at 1900 don’t you think?
    Unless these guys keep buying the dip and selling the pop.
    Nice game if you can trade it …

  113. rose

    Dear Joseph,

    Thank you very much for the numbers. It is not easy to be calm and simply hold on and/or decide whether to add to positions at least a little bit ๐Ÿ™‚ and to not refresh this page constantly! ๐Ÿ™‚

    With very kindest regards,

    Rose

  114. Gary

    Gold is working off a major upleg. That can either happen as a consolidation or a correction. So far it appears to be a consolidation.

    But to think gold can just continue higher after it’s already been stretched almost 30% above the 200 DMA is wishful thinking IMO.

    Gold is doing what it needs to do in order to reach $2000 or more.

  115. muttonfish

    trond56,

    It’s just gold, man. Doesn’t need a reason. Gold is manic-depressive. One minute it’s smiling and laughing and telling jokes, the next it’s smashing holes in the wall and cussing up a storm.

  116. ALEX

    Blogger sophia said…

    Last week, they were trashing the stockmarket….this week, they are going to trash the PMs

    September 9, 2011 5:21 AM

    Sophia, Rose

    I prefer to say , “They are about to go on sale, and we dont even have to leave the house to buy them ๐Ÿ™‚

  117. trond56

    There were no reaction in the dollar chart or the SP500 chart either, as is usually the case. Sorry I don’t buy that argument, there is always an explanation or at least a motivation for happenings and strong actions (Sherlock Holmes).

  118. muttonfish

    Trond,

    Agreed as to the longer time frames, but not always the case for these sudden drops over the course of a few minutes. I’ve been trading gold for 10 years, and I’ve seen it drop like this in very short-term time frames more times than I can count, based on no reason at all. (I would say it’s “raids” or “manipulation” but I don’t want to get slapped upside my head by the big G.)

  119. Shalom Bernanke

    It helps to watch the moves in gold, or anything for that matter, in % change rather than absolute $ change.

    To me, gold isn’t that much more volatile than it has in the past, it’s just that 5% is now close to a $100 move, where it was only $50 a year or two ago.

    This is how prices rise exponentially (in $ terms) in any market, while percentage gains vary but only within a range.

  120. oa92000

    ” TommyD said…
    I venture to say — the QQQ filling the gap. Then we finish the day strong for general market.”

    not sure? just watching Greek cds..

  121. Hack

    Does anyone here really think that Europe will solve their problems within the next year? If their mess spreads over here then gold becomes priceless. Gold cannot correct under these circumstances. However it could continue to range trade like silver…

  122. Poly

    I’ve been a bullion guy all along (past year plus) as hopes were dashed too many times by the miners. But wow, got to say, miners today are showing phenomenal strength andyge charts look like the real deals.
    Up to 50/50 bullion/miners mix now.

  123. Elaine

    Senate cleared the way for an additional $500bln in borrowing yesterday. Right on the heels of the whole budget limit fiasco last month.

    Anyone worried about it being 9/11 this weekend?

    Just curious.

  124. oa92000

    “Elaine said…
    Anyone worried about it being 9/11 this weekend?

    I am sure FBI is watching who is buying large amount of fertilizer these days…

  125. Poly

    Michael,

    Yes, but still only have that one initial position. Waiting for some type of sustained rally to fire a 2nd round. Daily cycle still has plenty of time to recover and make something happen.

  126. Movax2

    10 years 9/11 .. Maybe a good time for another false flag attack. What, the US gov wouldn’t and didn’t do it? It was terrorists? I guess the gov would never think of such a thing.

    The planned, but never executed, 1962 Operation Northwoods plot by the U.S. Department of Defense for a war with Cuba involved scenarios such as fabricating the hijacking or shooting down passenger and military planes, sinking a U.S. ship in the vicinity of Cuba, burning crops, sinking a boat filled with Cuban refugees, attacks by alleged Cuban infiltrators inside the United States, and harassment of U.S. aircraft and shipping and the destruction of aerial drones by aircraft disguised as Cuban MiGs. These actions would be blamed on Cuba, and would be a pretext for an invasion of Cuba and the overthrow of Fidel Castro’s communist government. It was authored by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, but then rejected by President John F. Kennedy.

  127. Razvan

    “but then rejected by President John F. Kennedy.”
    if youre going to make accusations at least give an example where it was carried through.

  128. Movax2

    if youre going to make accusations at least give an example where it was carried through.

    I think I pretty strongly implied one.

    For me, I go with what makes the most sense, and if anyone has spent any time at all looking at the facts, the best you can say for our rulers was at the very least they were complicit and allowed 9/11 to go forward.

  129. Movax2

    Razvan..As well there was the Lusitania and the Gulf of Tonkin “attack”.

    Various others throughout, but those are the most famous.

  130. muttonfish

    WW,

    Yeah, my thoughts too. (I sold my sqqq at 26.20.) We may head to the bottom of the triangle…I’m sitting tight in cash until I get more of a feel.

  131. MrMiyagi

    Weird gap action with SPY, gapped up Wednesday, didn’t fill it yesterday and gapped down this morning leaving that gap-up unfilled now as a gap-down.
    Do two gaps make a fill?

  132. Russell

    Does Starks resignation from ECB make anyone suspicious that ECB is headed to aggressive bond buying of debt, a position not favored by the Germans? If so, how will this affect equities or gold? I’m 100% cash and 110% confused.

  133. LowTax

    Russell, Stark’s departure, like Trichet’s upcomign one, is definately dovish. I think the ECB will blink, and blink hard. Bond buying will be the name of the gamea and Germany will have to deal with it, probably by buying gold!

    The result on gold will be simple: UP.

  134. Russell

    Lowtax,
    That is what I tend to think. I like investing best when cycle theory lines up with external economic facts. Unfortunately, cycles have me confused. It doesn’t seem like anyone especially Gary is convicted about anything in regards to the gold cycle at the present time. Investing was much easier for me when you could have a clear set of expectations in regards to daily and intermediate cycles. I hope that clarity returns sometime soon. I miss those days.

  135. ckpc

    WW,
    You are my hero. I think you were the one who commented that the market always goes down after Obama gives a speech, and that stuck in my head.
    Consequently, I took out a small insurance policy yesterday in the form of 5 Sept. FAZ calls and they are up 85% today.
    I sold my Q’s on the small bounce this morning and added to my GDX, which is now up nicely.
    So, WW, thanks for your insights!
    Keep ’em coming!

  136. MarkF

    Razvan,

    Spend a few hours one day looking into why building 7 collapsed free fall on 9/11, and you might become one of those crazy conspiracy theorists.

  137. Blindweb

    Sold my 20% SSO for GDX this morning. Risk reward seems so much better on GDX. I’m also starting to wonder what will happen to GDX if we don’t get any kind of market bounce. I may end up swapping it for GLD.

  138. Shalom Bernanke

    What’s with the weakness? Sheesh, I shouldn’t have peeked in on things, was hoping to start enjoying another long weekend. ๐Ÿ™‚

    Still unlikely I do any buying today, but will check in again after a nap.

    MarkF,

    I agree 100%. How anybody can watch a video of building 7 collapse (nothing hit it), straight freefall in just a few seconds, and not understand that it was demolition is beyond me.

    Look into Larry Silverstein and you’ll get more creeped out. He admits bldg 7 was “pulled”, in his own words.

    The more I see, the more I believe people really are cattle.

  139. jeff

    I think the administration is covering up that they had leads on the 9/11 attacks but ignored them because of bureaucracy, bad mistakes and the like. Now they are “covering” up that they had this prior information which makes them look like they were implicated in the event somehow. They should have said, we “goofed up”. You know, I was busy golfing the day of the report and when I saw the report on the blackberry, I was too happy from the beer to bother dealing with the urgent report. And my boss, well he was out with some lady of the night and still sleeping it off when the plane hit the first tower. Everyone is covering for each other. Doh I just realized that my explanation is a conspiracy too.

  140. TommyD

    Well I see my gap was filled.
    Now, I hereby announce that the world is on sound footing and there are no more economic skeletons in the closet to hold us down, from reaching new blue-sky highs.

    That should work…

  141. Adam

    Conspiracy theory turds have crept into THIS board now? Stupid political conversations and conspiracy theory douchebags are part of the reason I’ve avoided Slope of Hope comments. Yeah, you’re so learned about it from internet blogs and YouTube links while avoiding common sense. F’ing unreal, man.

  142. Adam

    SB,

    No, you’re right. Our own government did it. Makes perfect sense. ‘Cuz the amount of people it would take to plan it would be able to keep their mouths shut both before & after.

  143. PressurePointAdmin

    To invade Iraq, bomb the shit out of it, give rebuilding contracts back to American companies, oh yeah there may be some black stuff that they have there. You are just another victim of the media which is probably another reason why you invariably make no money trading. Oh ps there was no flight 93. Yes I must be a nut for thinking these things, what a mad man, insane I tell you. How could Americans possibly do this to their own………… The same way they are taking your health service, jobs and industries pal. Need a strong coffee. Wakeup numb nut.

  144. Shalom Bernanke

    Look into Israel. They did 9/11 as a false flag to get us into wars against Muslims.

    It’s genius I tell ya. Eliminate your enemies without risking anything yourself, and at no cost.

    It’s not like Israel hasn’t committed false flag attacks on it’s allies before. Look into the Lavon Affair, for example.

    I’m off for a nap. Take care and good luck.

  145. Joseph Lemma

    Conspiracy theories: just another way to blame our trading mistakes on someone else.

    The evil banking cartel manipulates gold, the comex manipulates silver, the jews manipulate the price of diamonds, Bush is actually some kind of amphibian animal, etc…

  146. jeff

    Market is going to end somewhere above the Aug 9 lower trend line we bounced 3x up from – giving investors the weekend to fantasize about the abyss just below that line.

  147. Blindweb

    To your average person Zerohedge is a conspiracy site. IMO, the mainstream media is further from the truth than most conspiracy sites. It’s all a matter of your knowledge base.

    There’s an infinite amount of knowledge that one does not know. I never discount any possibilities. I weigh probabilities against my assessment of what percent of the relevant facts I have. I have my doubts on 9/11 but do not have enough facts to make the situation actionable. The internet has shown that most Westerners will act the expert on about pretty much anything that they have less than 1% of the facts on.

  148. DP

    SP500 is hinges on USD.

    Obvious anti-correlation.

    Hope that USD is over-bough and hope it might help SP500 to push higher.

  149. Romeo Bravo

    CA Income taxes are 10%. Plus all the fees for living here and the very not friendly treatment of capital gains.

    If you don’t’ mind a soggy winter, any of the small communities around Seattle and out on the Islands are nice (Bainbridge, etc.) The rain is NOT as bad as you would be let to believe.

    Or try interior Wyoming, Montana, etc.

  150. oa92000

    MrMiyagi said…
    What is a good place to live in the USA; no heat/humidity, 30-40000 population, maybe lake/oceanfront, cheap, close to bigger city?”

    boulder,co

  151. MrMiyagi

    Not a fan of California although the coast and forests are beautiful. Funny that Maine and Oregon got mentioned because we love both but Maine gets so hot and muggy in the summer…
    Just for kicks we were looking at home prices around Boise ID and Las Vegas. I can’t belive the houses you can buy for 125-150000$. Mind blowing, to us at least, houses where we are sell for 450-550000$ We can buy 3 homes and be land barons! Not…
    Why such a huge price difference?

  152. Romeo Bravo

    DP, if you live in CA but do not want to be a resident, you have to be out of the state for at least half the year. Many people do this by living up at Lake Tahoe but on the Nevada side. No income tax in Nevada!

    However, I have heard the revenue folks here get wise to people who do spend more than half the year here but claim not to. Best way for them to track this? Your cell phone bills and call records!

  153. David

    I guess if you’re “not visibly non” then it’s just a matter of your politics. Idaho is filled with white supremacists, survivalists — and, I’m sure a lot of nice folks thrown in.

  154. William Wallace

    Mutton,

    I adhered to my SQQQ trade, just didnt hold it as long as I should have, but not my NUGT. I took it off yesterday as planned but got sucked back in this morning when I seen it pushing up.

  155. MrMiyagi

    Our criteria are;
    Not hot/humid Eastern summers.
    No more -40 winters.
    Larger lots, 8-10000sq ft+.
    Low taxes.
    Small population but close (20 miles or so) from larger centre.
    Newer homes.
    Beach or lakefront or close by. Or large wilderness areas.
    No ethnics, no Jews trying to screw us and bomb us.

    Last one was a joke….

  156. DP

    MrMiyagi —

    Tucson, AZ

    Live in Summer Heaven up in the Mount Lemmon.

    International airport, big university, lots of bums in the park in winter time.

  157. Mean Guy

    WOW,

    Going through comment section today shows level of intelligence of some of the people investing the same direction as me. Gives me reason to maybe cash out.

    Do you realize how people it would take to bring down those buildings.

    Hundreds, with months of work prior to 9/11, and no one would tell a soul, sounds reasonable to me.

    4 crews of hijackers is enough conspiracy theory.

  158. Elaine

    MrM,

    Yesh, but it’s a DRY heat. Actually Tucson is cooler than Phoenix because they are at a bit of elevation. There are a lot of other really beautiful cooler places, Flagstaff, Payson, Pinetop.

  159. ckpc

    There are areas around Boulder, CO. that are affordable, but Boulder is not. I bought my house in Boulder in 1983 and sold it in 2004 for 5X profit. Moved out to one of the smaller, bordering towns and love it.
    Easy access to Denver, Boulder, the mountains and Rocky Mountain National Park, as well as the ski resorts. Large international airport, with fast toll roads to get you there.

    The weather here is heavenly. 330 days of sunshine each year, and no humidity. Look into Louisville, Lafayette, Lyons, Longmont, Golden, and areas around Colorado Springs.

    Best of luck.

  160. YesLetsDiscuss

    Market at the trendline, but its not looking very good. Very reluctant to take a loss here since this could be a launch point, but looks like its not going to happen today. It will be quite scary if it gaps down Monday morning.

  161. Shalom Bernanke

    Hey david,

    Would it make you feel any better if I never came around SMT anymore?

    You must not have read Hasbara too well, because I’d probably be inclined to share my thoughts with others, possibly on sites that reach a much wider audience, instead of spending my computer time here at SMT.

    If you were as smart as you think you are, it seems you’d try to keep me here and contain the message from spreading. lol

  162. Shalom Bernanke

    David,

    Why all the talk about where to move, when you really just want to be in Israel?

    Why suck off your host nation for a place you’ll never really go live or be happy in?

    These are questions I’d ask myself if I were in your shoes. Then again, I have a knack for seeing the bigger picture.

  163. ALEX

    Just in case anyone gets nervous…Miners individual charts look pretty good on this pull back.

    On GDX , looks good too. Gap fill, and watch the 10sma, 20sma, and trendline. You want to see the volume lighten up if we are down Monday. You want less that 20 million down today (should be easy).Plus they’re buying it back as I speak..it was just $65.40

    http://www.screencast.com/t/MLhXi2kliz

    HAMVESTOR

    Where you the one from Boston area w/season tix? If so, do you ever sell home games ( or just to family & friends?..I understand if its just family).

  164. Shalom Bernanke

    I think they’re paying people to buy property in Detroit now, as long as they agree to improvements over several years. I just glanced over the article.

    Detroit used to be the 4th richest city in the US, if I ain’t mistaken.

  165. Vonda

    Ha! Nice one (to be clear, regarding LA), David!

    Sorry if y’all have already been discussing this: I’ve only managed a light perusal of today’s comments. (Instead of chickens to feed I’ve got a broken well pump and tank run dry . . . with horses to water.)

    How much of a chance is there that the emotions of the weekend are built into today’s dump? I ask because I’m loaded up in various vehicles and with the water emergency, didn’t set stops or keep and eye and now am pretty under water, not in a good way.

    Any ideas/opinions?

    I vote Pac NW, btw.

  166. MrMiyagi

    Vonda,
    We were originally looking at Vancouver Island so Pacific Northwest is similar. BC is very expensive though and they like to rape you with additional taxes and costs.

  167. David

    Vonda,

    The Greek thing is the biggest non-surprise on Earth. A default is baked in the cake. The CDS and bond market have fully priced it in.

    Presumably this selloff is something else.

  168. ALEX

    Earlier in the week I saw this (with the SPY and DIA)

    Today is a bit different (worse)but not absolutely a done deal.

    On this chart we broke down and I pointed out why I thought it was a fake sell off…3 days after this chart, we ran up and filled that gap and nopw we are back below this channel. A Gap down Monday would at least retest those lows AUG 8th (I.M.H.O.)

    http://www.screencast.com/t/7WhfRxqJ

    Compare this chart with todays DIA

  169. Elaine

    So no one is at all thinking that this is related to 9/11 being this weekend? I don’t believe in conspiracies, but I wonder if people are lightening up so that are out for the weekend.

    If nothing happens I be Monday is a HUGE up day.

  170. Vonda

    Ooh, love Vancouver island!

    Spent some time in Port Townsend recently: It was awesome; definitely an end-point destination, however.

    Bainbridge = yuppy and, IMO, overbuilt, but still beautiful. I hear pretty good things about Vashon: open, beautiful spaces, close to Seattle, and reasonable prices.

    But I have a warped sense of that latter quality, living in Southern Cali.

    I feel for you YesLet’s. I think I’m going to ride this one out. Could be crying in my coffee come Monday morn. Bleh.

  171. Leo

    Ya know, SB, you are one vile SOB!

    I can only speak for myself but I would prefer that you go spread your venom elsewhere.

  172. Vonda

    Kal!! Have been thinking about you!

    Nice shiny K!!

    Thanks, David . . . I was actually thinking more along the lines of 9/11 and, as such, concur with Elaine’s post. No biggie to me but wonder the same thing she said, if the fear/anxiety factor is causing people to sell out.

  173. Leo

    David, you are most certainly right. It is just remarkable though that while the overall tone of conversations around here is civil and respectful, there is one bastard that from time to time has to stink up the joint…

  174. muttonfish

    You know, SB, I seem to recall that around January/February of this year, you were discussing your perspective on Jews, and Gary kindly asked you to knock it off.

    At the very least, it’s seriously distracting.

  175. David

    If the market is worried about anything news-driven, it’s the unforeseen knock-on effects of the default: counterparty risks at Deutsche Bank, short-sellers moving on to Italy and Spain, etc.

    Ultimately, beyond the news, the market’s just pricing in the next leg of the depression.

  176. sophia

    Guys,

    I find this market exhasting…all was pointing for a nice end of the week, and now we are back to where we were last Friday…exhausting….

  177. Shalom Bernanke

    Leo,

    Saying Israel is a pariah is venom?

    I bet you wouldn’t have any problem at all if I criticized Iran or ANY Muslim country though, would you?

    Just move to Israel and be done with it. It’s so simple. You love it, defend it, yet refuse to move there? Show her you love her instead of lip service from over here.

  178. David

    The fault is mine for invoking Shalom’s name and summoning him from his lair.

    I thought he’d have a sense of humor about the Idaho comment (or take it as a compliment) but I guess not.

    Better to just move on.

  179. Shalom Bernanke

    muttonhead,

    No, it was your people making that connection via the labels they use. I don’t care for ANY traitor, jewish or goyim, that is loyal to Israel over my own country.

  180. ALEX

    Mr M

    I do look at candlesticks, but I tend to miss more / see a tad less unless I thin it up a bit. Its the OPEN/CLOSE that I look for most on my charts, and on Candlestick I look for candlestick “patterns”.

    ELAINE

    Thats an interesting observation because it was on the news that there IS a reliable terror threat for Washington and NY this weekend and the F.B.I. is looking into things.

  181. St. Deluise

    in case anyone cares i sold my gold puts this afternoon (at a profit, before anyone neener-neeners). some unusually strong buying this morning.

    still not exactly bullish but not bearish here either until the picture clears up.

    stocks i remain bullish on. wildly so after today.

    have a nice weekend.

  182. Elaine

    Alex,

    Yes, it could seriously be nothing. But, considering our recent foray into Pakistan and the anniversary, it might be something spooking some traders.

  183. muttonfish

    Lest my anger be taken as un-Christian, let me hasten to add that I was born a Southern Baptist; I’m lapsed. Don’t want to reflect poorly on the Southern Baptists:)

  184. Leo

    SB,

    The only reason Israel exists is because swine like you would not let Jews be for centuries. If Jews were treated like any human being deserves why would ANYONE want to move to that miserable corner of the desert?

    And when you live in a bad neighborhood (and ME is a really nasty neighborhood) and you are puny, you better act tough if you want to survive.

  185. sophia

    I hope nothing happen on the US soil this weekemd. A terrible tragedy 10 years ago is enough…
    I am pretty sure thatbthe G20 is going to be triggering a bullish move….

  186. David

    Shalom,

    I didn’t criticize people from Idaho.

    I did make the observation that there are a lot of white supremacists and survivalists there, in case that mattered to Mr. Miyagi.

    I don’t remember making any comments about your feelings about Israel one way or the other.

  187. ALEX

    You’re welcome Vonda

    and BEST WISHES with this-

    “(Instead of chickens to feed I’ve got a broken well pump and tank run dry . . . with horses to water.)”

    My grandparents had a large Farm and it was a lot of work, but they loved it. I think it was a way of making a living and their passion too. Good memories!

  188. Leo

    Mean Guy,

    I just added some EXK and GDX calls, nothing major but I am impressed by the strength of gold. And the USD is short-term seriously overbought.

  189. hamvestor

    Alex, yes, though I live in the north Kitsap area of Washington state, I own a pair of season tickets on the first base line at Fenway Park. Two former clients based in the Boston area divide the tickets. So I don’t know that there would be any tickets available for this year, but I could inquire.

    SB, whatever happened to you earlier in your life to make you so hateful?

  190. Vonda

    Save yourself the trouble and heartache, Leo.

    I’ve seen SB be very helpful and friendly to other traders on this forum, and he’s often quite astute.

    AND there’s a rip-roaring blindspot when it comes to his politics linked to anti-semitism. It’s too bad. It’s always too bad, and often dangerous. But from what I’ve watched during my time on this forum, you’d probably do better to save your oxygen for yourself.

    St. Del, I sure hope you’re right!

    Muttonfish, too funny!

    Good weekend all!
    I’m sure it’ll be safe and uneventful.

  191. ALEX

    I feel like I’m standing in the middle of a pretty good fight , wondering how I havent been hit yet ๐Ÿ™‚ ( though I believe really no one means any real harm, just a passive/aggressive discussion).

    So for now, I’m out.

    Have a great wkend all…keep it safe!!

    Oh, and play nice too ๐Ÿ˜‰

    Pat on the back for Gary too…this is ABSOLUTELY Tough Market volatility!! Its tough to be the “director” and “center of attention” in the middle of a Storm!!

  192. Mean Guy

    Bought some NUGT into close.

    I like Jews because they make movies.
    I like movies.

    I guess this a Jew/Investing site now.
    Have a nervous weekend.

  193. Leo

    SB,

    Just out of curiosity, are you equally bothered by the fact that the US sends 2.5B a year in military assistance to Egypt? I never heard you bitch about all the money spent on military aid to Pakistan either…

  194. ALEX

    Can I be an Old client of yours next year?? Need any trading advice FOR FREE??? ๐Ÿ™‚ did you say,
    “Blogger hamvestor said…

    Alex, yes, though I live in the north Kitsap area of Washington state, I own a pair of season tickets on the first base line at Fenway Park.

    I LOve Fenway and the Sox, and do you know what poor ‘underprivileged slobs’ like me pay for tix to see them ( and we rarely get the seats we want either ) ๐Ÿ™ They sell out EVERY SINGLE GAME for years in a row. Crazy!

    Even if its next yr , if any 2 go up for sale…maybe I can get a shot at buying them? ( and free trading advice if you need a second pair of eyes) My wife and I really enjoy just making a day of it ( we live 50 miles from Boston).

    Gotta run now– Take care all

  195. Leo

    Vonda, you are a sweetheart! No matter how vituperative I get verbally, I am cool and relaxed in my pajamas and slippers, sipping coffee with liqueur looking at the lake from the 37th floor… No S(o)B can perturb my serenity!

    Enjoy your week-end everyone!

  196. Shalom Bernanke

    Leo,

    No, not EQUALLY bothered as it’s not even close to what Israel syphons off the US, but I don’t like Eqypt getting aid, either.

    Just last year we “GAVE” 22 brand new fighter jets to Israel, not to mention all the other cash.

    It’s mostly the wars we fight for Israel that piss me off, while being sold that Israel is our ally. Tell me ONE SINGLE THING Israel gives the US in this relationship.

    That’s right, you can’t because it’s all one-way exploitation.

    Now, I’m done with the conversation. Have a great weekend!

  197. Vonda

    Leo,

    In some ways I’m glad these “conversations” take place here where, as Silverhound has been known to say, we all at least share the desire to make money and generally support one another in that endeavor.

    Your lake sounds dreamy.
    (I’d better go check my water tank.)

    Ciao All!

  198. Hack

    The debt ceiling raised again, in secret:

    The U.S. Senate, in an unusual procedure, cleared the way Thursday for the U.S. to lift its borrowing authority by $500 billion to $15.19 trillion, enough to keep the support federal government borrowing through late January or early February.

  199. hamvestor

    Alex, we might be able to work something out for next year. We can talk sometime by phone or email if we can figure out a way to do that without me having to post that contact info in a public forum, lol.

    Have a good weekend.

  200. dipshit

    Definition of VITUPERATIVE
    : uttering or given to censure : containing or characterized by verbal abuse
    — vi·tu·per·a·tive·ly adverb
    Examples of VITUPERATIVE

    First Known Use of VITUPERATIVE
    1727

  201. Elaine

    Hack,

    Yes, I posted that earlier. It was a part of the original deal in August, basically they agreed to one amount after all the fighting, but allowed more debt up to an additional 1.5trillion, I believe.

  202. KAL

    SB:

    Hummus. Dead Sea Salt-based creams and lotions that people give my wife as gifts. Military drone technology.

    Does it look to anyone like the GDX is working off some short-term overbought conditions in a quite effective way? Thanks and everyone have a great weekend!

  203. YesLetsDiscuss

    Yeah, GDX is clearly working off overbought conditions and closed the big gap. However, the unknown is Gold and if it will drag GDX down. I added slightly to my NUGT this afternoon.

    However, I did sell out my NQ after close today (for a loss)…too much stress to hold over the weekend worrying about a gap down.

    This week has me exhausted with ins and outs and some unnecessary losses.

    Live to trade another day…I will buy NQ again Sun night or Mon if the conditions warrant it.

  204. diana

    Mr. M –

    Bellingham, Washington has been rated as one of the top cities in the past. Western Wash. has a very mild climate and not much snowfall (depending on the elevation, of course). Google Top (small) cities in America and match with your priorities.

  205. ALEX

    Hamvestor

    You still on here ((‘ll check every so often, and I’ll post my email if I see you ‘re still here).

    Thanks!

    Alex

  206. dipshit

    Had to waste the day away on Monday with a minor holiday. Gave me all weekend to savor my qqq gains.

    Got caught on my heels deciding that minors were the place to be.
    Maybe we can sit old turkey next week, and even be happy about it for the most part.

  207. 86d4life

    It is a fact of nature that a lot of things start getting wiggy around the full, including here too. The next one is Monday. Then we can all go back to being friends again.

  208. Beanie

    Guess what happens to the Euro when you raise interest rates on fragile economy? Trichet listened to the gold bugs and… pow!

    Ignore the gold bugs. They know nothing but destruction.

  209. dipshit

    Gold with the dirt still on it is the new gold in the ground. PM miners have no incentive to produce when they can do nothing but wait for the value of their holdings to increase.

  210. Beanie

    Ben Bernanke, he’s the man. He saw things old guy Trichet didn’t see.

    Gold buggers — they are a vile group. They wanted the Fed to raise interest rates in a fragile economy, and luckily Benanke didn’t fall for the trap. We would be like Greece today…about to default.

    So that’s which Trichet did, he raised interest rates at least two times on the Euro this year. And now Greece is now a global systemic risk; certainly Europe is in big trouble now.

    Gold bugs, they want it both ways. They poo poo the Fed and bid up gold when Bernanke kept rates low. Now they bid up gold again because Greece is about to go default (because the ECB raised interest rates). Basically, gold buggers don’t care what happens to the world. They want it destroyed both ways to Sunday. Just so they make some money.

  211. jeff

    Beanie…I think you mean those evil bond bugs. They complain rates are too low for fixed income savers (but bid up bonds when rates fall). And when the stock market drops or euro troubles surface they worsen the death spiral in stocks by seeking safety in bonds and bailing on stocks.

    In fact if you look at it, the bond market is massive compared to both the stock market (x10) and the gold market. The bond trader are the ones that are making BIG money. The gold market is not on many institutions radar…at least yet.

  212. Hack

    Elaine;
    Missed your post, today was busy. But this shows why gold will increase in value and if this bahavior continues gold should be $4000 by Q1 2013…

  213. Tony

    Beanie would you please just leave this site

    Shalom Bernanke:

    I spent a few hours reading about wtc building 7. Thank you for suggesting it. I was reminded of a quote from Thomas Jefferson who was in fact very much against a central banking system. He said “For here we are not afraid to follow the truth wherever it may lead, nor to tolerate any error, so long as reason is left free to combat it”

    Although I know that there are aspects of the government and world banking system that I will never understand, I am not in the least bit troubled by it because I believe price is truth

    I am thankful for Gary and others who are able to interpret price (truth), and help me to adjust my accounts accordingly.

  214. Slumdog

    Michael (Hulk) said…

    Slumdog,

    I liked your recent 1929 Sep/Oct analogies to this current market. Pls post what you see for everyone’s benefit.


    Here’s an early heads up. The DJIA has started what can be an enormous drop in Oct. We must see Sept stay above the August low.
    The drop will be to 8100-8000, if this setup occurs.

    It’a a monthly chart. It’s an “inside” trade (sorry, another of my made up ideas not being explained here.)

    The setup has the potential of going down to 3000, yes, 3000. But I think it will stop at 8000 because the setup is 2500 points, which is HUGE.

    If the DJIA doesn’t fail here, and take out the bottom, I will fully expect Oct 2nd thru 4th week to start the ball rolling downhill to the stunning number of 8000.

    Everyone will have lost most of their leveraged long investments.

    The system is insolvent but for the printing of money. And the governments have nationalized the wealth away; so the market will reflect this by going to hell.

    There’s a small chance this down direction set up could turn around in a runaway inflation (which is what the Smart Guy President has in mind). That will be a horse nobody’s expecting to ride into town.

  215. RJ

    Slumdog,

    Thanks for the insight.

    If we do get the DOW under 9000 within the next 6 weeks, does gold also get thrown out with the bathwater? Miners, too?

    Or, should gold remain as a flight to safety and we get a dow gold ratio of 3 or 4 to 1?

    It appears possible that both the crisis (low rates) and inflationary (money printing) scenarios can be positive for gold but I’m sure my vision is clouded on this perspective.

    Thanks.

  216. Silverhound

    RE: the KWN interview with Sprott. He is always bullish on silver and has a vested interest due to his business. He does appear to be backing his call though as he has admitted in previous interviews elsewhere that he has 70% of his personal wealth in silver. I don’t know about the numbers he and JS throw around with the 10:1 GS ratio but I’m pretty sure he’d be pretty happy if silver went up just 3 times from here, never mind 30 times.

  217. Beanie

    From my perch, this Ron Paul stuff is really about redistributing wealth from the majority to the very few who happen to own precious metals. And those few will include the rich as I’ve alluded to awhile back. The truly rich will have advisors who will signal them to load up, and they have all the money in the world to buy gold. Maybe your hollywood stars, nfl and nba stars will get their wealth distributed..maybe.

    So gold bugs have been complaining all the money (bailouts what have you) goes to the wealthy bankers and Americans are poorer for that…and that’s why we need the gold standard. Huh? Tell you what, whatever Ron Paul is proposing, the majority of Americans will suffer more than they are now supposedly suffering. Their dollars may have been devalued but at least their income have risen 3 times since 20 years ago…so they can live with that, and they do. But this move-back-to gold standard shit will make 95% of all Americans poorer like never before. You know, like Untouchables poorer.

    So I don’t understand the gold bugs’ thesis. Are they trying to save the world, or are they trying to redistribute the wealth all to themselves? Tell me about it.

  218. Beanie

    Are americans really that much poorer, as you say? Many may have overspend due to temptations of modern luxury, but those who are reasonably frugal on average have been doing well, assuming they make a reasonable income. The baby boomers still have lots of money because they saved and invested, unlike the Generation X who like to be hip and follow the Joneses. The baby boomers didn’t have many temptations that we have today. Isn’t America still one of the richest country in the world and that everyone still wants to come here?

    Ok, I give you that you’re right — the standard of living has gone down because our dollar is being devalued like crazy, faster than the personal income to keep pace. We have 350 million americans. How is the gold standard going to make our lives better, for 350 million Americans? Since the govt cannot spend what it doesn’t have, many millions of Americans would have to starve to death. Social Security? Gone. Might as well euthanize them at age 70, n’est pas? Medicare/Medicaid? Gone. Let the sick rot on the streets? Stock market? Probably gone or dramatically marginized because fledging companies won’t be able to borrow money they don’t have.

    Is that the grand plan of the gold buggers? It seems pretty solemn to me. Is that what you folks, the Peter Schiffs of the world, are fighting for?

  219. Beanie

    Note that when I was still in college, engineers were making $30k a year and that was considered good living. Now they make $90k. Inflation basically devalues the dollar. Since their $90k probably buys around the same amount of items they were able to buy 20 years ago, wouldn’t you say their “wealth was preserved” (similar to how gold preserves your wealth)?

    Keeping fiat money still seems the better and the more practical, considering our population.

  220. diana

    Beannie, You said, “Now they make $90k. Inflation basically devalues the dollar. Since their $90k probably buys around the same amount of items they were able to buy 20 years ago, wouldn’t you say their “wealth was preserved” (similar to how gold preserves your wealth)?”

    You’re trying to equate wages with savings/assets. Accumulated savings and assets are wealth. When the rate of inflation is higher than the rate of return on your savings/assets, your wealth is decreasing.

    Buying gold bullion is an insurance policy against rapid inflation destroying the value of accumulated savings.

    Being middle class and buying gold is more “protecting myself from our government’s debasing the currency” than trying to make someone ELSE poor. If I protect myself/family, I will still be able to give to the needy.

    Your argument against gold bugs is fallacious. I really think you’re just trying to goad us into argument. You got me to respond, but I’m not going to let you “get my goat!” ๐Ÿ˜‰

  221. Danno

    Has anyone put a 2011 SLV (silver) chart over a 2008 SLV chart yet?

    The way they match up is scary.

    Laying one chart over another does not always work, as history does not always repeat itself. But if history does repeat itself this time… look out. We could be about one week away from a sell off of considerable size in silver.

    Of course, that would probably require the general stock market to tank, which is what caused the silver sell off in 2008. Who knows if the stock market will tank. It’s anyone’s guess.

    But what creeps me out is the way the talking heads keep saying we could have another 2008 style crash here just about any day now. It’s like they are speaking a sort of code warning their buddies who know the lingo that a crash is actually going to happen. This time it will be blamed on Europe.

    Hmm…

  222. Danno

    ^^ Not saying I think silver will sell off. Just saying if it does, it could be fairly violent.

    However, I am still of the mind that gold and silver may surge significantly higher near term.

    Silver may have formed a multi-month Symmetrical Triangle pattern (although it has a bit too much white space – the pattern should ideally be filled with price bars) while gold may be forming a multi-week Ascending Triangle.

    Both patterns are bullish. Although neither pattern has a very high performance (reliability) ranking according to Bulkowski’s ‘Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns’ he does say that in his hands on experience Symmetrical Triangles are fairly reliable.

    In other words, PMs have some bullish price action here but silver is not out of the woods quite yet (and those woods could be deep and dark). IMO

  223. jeff

    Beanie – this alternative energy Obama stuff is really about redistributing wealth from the majority to the very few who happen to own alternative energy stocks.

    Why are you worried about a gold standard/bugs? They are rather powerless and it is unlikely that we will see a gold standard outcome. What you need to really worry about is alternative energy bugs.

  224. Danno

    ^ Actually, alternative energy is here to stay and will be growing. The potential bull market in oil could end up make gold’s chart look like a flat line.

  225. Gary

    Alternative energy is definitely here to stay and it’s one small part of the solution to our energy problems.

    But the oil bull market is mostly over. The global economy is going to be in an on-again off-again recession for years, maybe decades. I said almost 2 years ago that oil would underperform in this bull market and it has.

    Running back to what treated you well in the last bull market is a common human tendency, so Beanie’s fixation on energy and alternative energy is just par for the course. Astute investors figure out what the new leaders are going to be instead of living in the past.

    If we happen to reach secular bear market bottom conditions in 2012 then it will be time to think about jettisoning the precious metal bull and hopping on the next secular bull market, which I’m pretty sure will be led by biotech.

    I can virtually guarantee the gold bugs will make the exact same mistake during the next bull market that Beanie is making during this one.

  226. High 5

    What crashed the gold bull last time was the raising of interest rates by Volcker which brought confidence back to the USD.

    If you really believe raising interest rates, above true inflation rate, is an option this time then Gary is right. If however interest rates remain negative then Gary, and many others, will be dead wrong and will lose everything to a collapsing paper currency while the USD price of gold plateaus at a high value.

    Unless of course they immediately exchange their toilet paper money for tangible assets and maybe company shares.

    Those who expect a repeat of the seventies gold bull need to spend some time studying money. They need to realize that gold is more than a commodity, it is money.

  227. High 5

    The reason this gold bull is different is that the present situation is far different. Consider the national debt exponentially increasing, national yearly deficits exponentially increasing, looming global depression, FRN not tied to gold as it was before last gold bull, and many other differences too many to list.

    The USD didn’t collapse last time and might this time. At the very least it will no longer be the worlds reserve currency.

  228. Danno

    hamvestor,
    Charts can never tell you what will happen. The best charts can do is offer possible scenarios. We GUESS which scenario we FEEL has the best odds and then we GAMBLE. That’s it. That is all you can do. Of course every professional gambler has a capitol preservation plan for the inevitable… wrong guess.

    If I seem a little wishy washy on which way I think silver will jump next… it’s because I have no clue. Absolutely none whatsoever. I make a guess and then I take a little money and best the other way, just in case.

  229. Gary

    Beanie is just trying to rationalize why losing money is the patriotic thing to do. It’s complete nonsense of course but if it allows him to ride the secular bear market all the way to the bottom and still feel good about it…then so be it. So of course by definition riding the secular gold bull to profits is unpatriotic.

    I’ve tried to warn him for months this was coming so he has no one to blame other than his perma bull view of the world.

  230. jeff

    High 5
    What if we get a sizeable depression with price deflation (i.e. sustained negative inflation). That is, the nominal interest rate, even if zero, minus the (negative) inflation rate is positive. Then real rates rise and are positive even without the fed raising interest rates. And money can shift to bonds from gold.

    The fed will be forced to print (as government deficit spend) to reflate and hopefully avoid a loss in faith in the currency (i.e. hyperinflation). But the credit bubble (bank created household debt) is over 16T and has deflated about 1T to date, offset by this years US deficit (1.5T) so that GDP is flatish in 2010. Anyway as credit continues to deflate, the Fed/government either increases deficits (spends more) to maintain GDP or faces a shrinking economy (deflation).

    But Gary’s cycles seems to work because they line up with these monetary inflationary and deflationary events which effect markets and gold.

    Now the USD can collapse (hyperinflation) and we can get hyperdeflation and in that case maybe only guns are useful.

  231. High 5

    Beanie believes that senior citizens having to eat dog food because their savings have been decimated by debasement of fiat is patriotic.

    The current system is best for borrowers/consumers and rapid growth while a gold standard is great for savers/producers and real sustainable growth.

    Maybe the best system is hybrid by nature of a free market in money, where people have a right to choose their preferred money rather than have the choice made for them by an authoritarian government. Capitalism should as its foundation have free markets in capital.

    Go to fiat for investment and spending or gold for saving and allow gold, silver, fiats, and private paper instruments to float in the free markets.

    The paper bugs and gold bugs will continue to stake out their extremist positions concerning money, until something rattles their cages (cracks).

  232. High 5

    Jeff,

    I believe it has been proven many times that sustained deflation is impossible with a fiat currency if government wants to expand the money supply. Since governments biggest enemy is deflation they won’t allow it.

    A recent example is the SNB devaluation which will immediately end their deflation. Even Japan, on careful examination, has experienced no sustained deflation. The US deflaton of the early thirties was immediately eliminated when FDR took office and made the USD irredeemable and increased its supply.

    I know the argument that price levels are also determined by velocity but who will sit on paper when it is being rapidly devalued? Only fools and even they will drop it like a hot potato eventually.

  233. jeff

    True and Japan has 250% debt/GDP vs US 90%, a strong currency and strong gold and bond appreciation but no hyperinflation.

    The Fed only “prints” when the government chooses deficts (to spend rather austerity and balanced budgets). Japan went back and forth between deficts/austerity. The US may follow that path with short deflation after choosing austerity (i.e a down cycle in stocks and gold). This would produce political will for a subsequent spending cycle (deficits) and inflation (boom cycle in stocks and gold).

    Agreed on SNB…one can easily debase a currency but one cannot easily appreciate a currency.

  234. High 5

    Also, a huge amount of FRN is sitting idle as reserves now. If a large deflationary event occurs I would think the odds are good this idle currency will become rapidly mobile to make ends meet.

    All the required FRN has been created to allow HI. The printing comes later when digital money is risky and people demand cash in hand. Unless there are warehouses full of paper FRN it will take a very long time to print as much money as exists. Good luck buying physical gold once we have a bank holiday for banks to stock up on paper (physical) money.

    Check out exter’s pyramid for a convincing visual of a possible future. Imagine all the worlds wealth attempting to get through a small orifice at the bottom and the stages it must pass through first. Physical paper is the last stage before physical gold. The pyramid is beginning to take a deuce.

    http://the-moneychanger.com/articles_files/mmm_files/economy/exter.phtml

  235. Beanie

    Gary,

    Your understanding of bull market seems to be very limited. Alternative energy is still in its infancy and the 2 years bull market it experienced was just a taste of what is to come. But you gave it two years and think that is the end of it. Hardly.

    You give commodities 15-20 years bull market, yet alternative energy is arguably more important and , in time, much bigger. The commodities bull market that Jim Rogers saw was based on history, based on what happened before in the last bull market. Most bull markets last at least 10 years, at least. Alternative energy is definitely a very new sector. Nobody knows how far and how long it will last. Certainly not you. But two years seems to be very understretched and very arbitrary, for any sector. It will have its kicks and fits but it will undoubtedly get blown up into a massive bubble in due course.

    As for equities, the two years bull market from 2009 low is still intact, at least for now it is. We simply had a 19% correction from the May 2011 high. Calling a bear market is kind of a rush to judgement. It doesn’t even meet the definition of a bear market (greater than 20%, some say 30%).

    I like to goad the gold bugs because their ideals don’t make a whole lot of common sense to me. And the gold standard has too many logistic holes to implement in a population of 350 million Americans. I can understand protecting your family from dollar devaluation with gold (at least for a length of time), just like I understand sometimes you might want to buy a gun to protect your family. But this Bernanke bashing and Ron Paul ideology doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me.

    Now, here’s the catch 22. Gold bugs who want to go back to the gold standard, and hurt most Americans in the process, are jerks (as Charlie Munger has alluded to). If you gold buyers don’t believe we will ever go back to the gold standard again (as some of you have stated we won’t), then your loading up on gold as an “investment” is basically playing musical chairs, so you hype it up and eventually dump it all on the last guy, a la Ponzi, a la Tulipmania. (How ironic that gold guys complain about the Fed creating too much bubbles, yet the gold lovers are already creating one of the biggest bubbles known to man –precious metals). Of course, you need an excuse for everyone to buy gold…and naturally Bernanke becomes a target as he prints money to try to save an economy. Bernanke could easily reduce the money supply by raising interest rates later on, and somehow that gets lost in the gold buggers’ mantras.

  236. Beanie

    When Bernanke raises interest rates, precious metals will fall like a rock. So precious metals bull market is very interest rates based. Forget the gold bugs ideology nonsense.

    ECB’s Trichet raised rates too soon (during a severe recession), and that resulted in Greece defaulting in quick order and the rest of Europe in dire straits. Gotta thank the gold bugs for that. Trichet probably read too much zerohedge? Raising interest rates too soon on the euro was what truly put them in big trouble right here right now. But gold bugs now divert their attention into something else for why Greece is defaulting and the Eurozone is in trouble. Hey, thanks for nothing.

  237. jeff

    Beanie,
    Debasing a currency and high debt levels forces the Fed to chose low interest rates to keep interest payments low. And like Japan example has shown, it will produce inflation only when credit is expanding in the economy. That is, until the US has a healthy economy I think high inflation will not be in cards, though we may get episodes of moderate inflation during QE/government stimulation. Than like after the government stimulus ends, like Japan we can expect to see deflation and consumer de-leveraging to continue.

    Also Fed continues to keeps rates low hoping highly indebted consumers will go even further in debt and buy some garbage from China because the economy is 70% consumption based so that will be positive for GDP.

  238. jeff

    high 5…thx for sharing the articles.

    gold is “money” because you and others believe it. gold is rare but does not special or has magical beyond the faith one has. if people starting valuing sea shells (at one time they did) than sea shells would be money. in fact, if enough come to believe in sea shells and reject lose faith in the USD than we can have hyperinflation. but till then most of the world believe the usd and other fiat is “money”

    anyway i’m incredibly bullish on gold. it will do less well when we have deflation and well when we are stable or growing (low inflation). it will also do well during times of fear like wars or currency crises. but that is only because a number of people believe that this rare shiny yellow metal is worth something during those times, and somehow worth less at others.

  239. David

    Beanie,

    Bernanke raised rates from 2005-2007 and gold roared.

    Gold also did very well in the 1970s, when interest rates peaked at 15%.

    Gold and interest rates fell during the 80s-90s.

    Greece’s default has nothing to do with Trichet raising rates (which was a mistake, but not for that reason). Greece has been collapsing long before Trichet raised rates. Greek debt yields are over 50%. You think 25 basis
    points makes the slightest difference?

    We are currently long both tech and gold. At some point soon we will probably be long neither. The two are not mutually exclusive.

    Again, investing is not a team sport. Anyone who thinks otherwise is destined to lose money.

  240. RJ

    SF,

    Not me, same as you, I check in every now and then.

    I am curious if their premium content is worth it.

    They said after the fact in a free article that they advised silver puts when it got to the high 40’s.

  241. High 5

    Jeff,

    Gold is not ‘rare’. Things that get consumed are rare but gold has the highest stock/flow ratio of anything. All of it that has ever been mined is still in use. That is one reason it is the best money.

    If you think, like Gary does, that gold is not special in the money department then you are simply ignorant, in this area, and need to study money.

    One example is the FACT that central banks and the uber wealthy all use massive amounts of gold as money. Check out bullion banks and the BIS if you think gold is not money. How much gold do you think the Rothschild family has and more importantly, why do they have it?

    The giants know gold as money and convince the sheeple to trust slips of paper. That way when paper collapses they rake in all the sheeples wealth. By simply storing the shiny metal in vaults.

  242. Gary

    Gold is a store of value. By that definition it is money. But I seriously doubt it will ever be used as currency again. It’s too rare and not easily divisible unless converted to fiat. Which is how the whole monetary mess began in the first place.

    All the “gold money” sites are basically just running the same scam that central bankers have been running for years.

    If you think that a gold bug somehow has the market cornered on morality I’m afraid you will be sorely disappointed. I’m pretty sure at some point many, if not all, the gold money companies will succumb to the temptation to sell more gold than they actually have stored in their vaults.

  243. jeff

    Like I said, sea shells were money once but faith moved into a “rarer” gold commodity. Even bronze had its heyday before gold was prized. Gold has lasted for 5000 years and will likely continue to have value under fiat with decades like the 70s/00s and times like the 90s.

    The uber wealthly have a ton of wealth stored in gold/commodities and bonds and real estate and stock etc. Some got burned by real estate and nasdaq bubble. But the smart money will always have some core holding of gold/stock/cash/bonds and trade a sizeable portion of their portfolio in/out the asset class that provides the best return. That is, the “smart money” will know when gold is fully valued and the time has arrived to dump to the retail class with the intention of securing it back later at an out of favor lower price.

    That said I’m uber bullish on gold, I just hope people don’t fall in love with investments like they may have with nasdaq stocks or their home investment.

  244. dipshit

    Exactamundo! The problem with gold in the ground is that it is not confirmed until you dig it up and can see it. That said, I am sure that geology offers a lot of good evidence.

    Now, I get to start worring about if they lie about how much they have in their vaults. Oh well, guess I just keep large miners as any core that I want to count on.

    Still has to be better than burying it in your backyard and raising a machine-gun turrett to protect it. Ever see the moveie War Wagon. The gold mining conpany would have armed guards like a big possee to get the gold to market. Then they just by more guns, so they can make a bigger run.

  245. dipshit

    Gary’s greatest strength IMHO is focusing on a single sector that will outperform in his learned opinion. We could just be keeping 10 differnet asset classes and trimming them between 0 and 20% as they advance and pull back again. That way we would be covered for every situation like a hedge fund. Keeping up with all that trading would be a night mare compared to how Gary trades in and out of one or two sectors at a time; but, you could do it. It would probably take all your time, and you would probably not beat the averages. I mean you are right about the SPX bull market rally probably continuing, but will it outperform in the short-term over the next few days and weeks? I mean, you could probably keep some kind of core and make 5-10% per year on average over the long term; but, we are all little guys trying to buck the system and really make a buck. Sure, would be nice to pick a permanent portfolio and come back in 20 years to untold riches. Anyone still collect MLB cards?

  246. JEFFtheFLEA

    TRADERLADY
    looking to come down oct 12 for a few days and then head to orlando for the whole disney experience with the kids. Will you be around at that time? I think we will be there through saturday night.

  247. High 5

    Gold is at the bottom of exters pyramid because it’s the asset with lowest risk. Derivatives are at the top because, you guessed it, the highest risk.

    Paper money is debt and gold money is debt paid in full. No magic to it that is just the way it is.

  248. Beanie

    I don’t hate gold. I actually have 10% of my money in gold….just in case the crazy tea party succeeds with their agenda.

    Fiat is better and more practical. That’s why our cultures have had over 3000 fiat currencies through the ages vs sticking with gold as a currency.

    I think we are in a severe negativity bubble now is why all the talk about gold. But things will get better and there will be less talk about gold. Gold is a total waste of time and focus. Other than for a certain insurance policy , gold is otherwise ponzi and tulipmanic talk.

  249. MrMiyagi

    MsM and I went the December 2010, cold snap but still a lot of fun.
    A lot of the attractions and rides have gotten ridiculously loud, is everyone deaf that designs these?
    Earplugs are a must I say, if you value your hearing. A lot of kids were crying as their parents tried in vain to cover their ears, specifically at the Hollywood Studios stunt show.
    Churros there are addicting.

  250. wmp

    “Greece’s cash-strapped government said Sunday it would impose a new property tax on top of existing austerity measures, to compensate for a revenue shortfall that is threatening to disrupt its vital international bailout program.”

    Posted an hour ago on Yahoo Business.

  251. St. Deluise

    seriously!

    you’d have to be nuts to be playing around in forex now anyway. the swiss put the final nail in that coffin last week. might as well be trading oak leaves vs. pine needles at this point.

  252. jeff

    The swiss just says the price of our currency is now 1.20 Euro. And if the market doesn’t move the price to that level, than they will “print” franc and buy euro.

  253. JEFFtheFLEA

    mr M

    we are staying at a time share with the wifes parents. i have no idea where.
    in bradenton we will stay with great grandmother for 4 or 5 days.
    none of it will be comfortable, but it should be fun. I’ll just need a vacation when i get back.
    O, and for a little extra stress
    we are driveing down. Dont ask me why cause i dont know.

  254. JEFFtheFLEA

    SNP futures.. dec contract is tradeing about 5 dollars less than the sept contract. usually the farther out contract is tradeing more.. hmmm any thought out there?

  255. Silverhound

    RJ

    RE: the HUI chart you linked to with a target of 1068. The pattern they are refering to is an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern but they have drawn it incorrectly. The neckline should be a horizontal line at 500 with all price points above and below touching, not the sloping trendline they have drawn. I have it as a Cup and Handle pattern (similar to the GDX chart I posted earlier) and the breakout actually occured in September 2010, HUI has been backtesting that level in the huge consolidation over the past year to confirm it as support. The target is closer to ~850. Take the depth of the “Head” or “Cup” and add it to the neckline to give a target.

    Hope this helps explain what they are trying to show.

  256. KAL

    Thanks for the info silverhound. I thought that chart looked weird but I don’t know enough about charts to know why it looked weird. Nice to be here with the chart wizards.

  257. Dan

    RJ,

    As a subscriber I can tell you that Zeal did in fact advise puts in the highs 40s but they also missed the entire run up. I got lucky as I followed Gary in to buy AGQ and later followed Zeal in to buy puts.

    Although the puts were very profitable, I can tell you that I made a hell of a lot more on the AGQ. Thats why I always follow a few successful newsletters and leave the final decisions to myself.

  258. Beksachi

    Cursing that I sold off and took profits in EUO last week!!

    Should have stayed till EUO hits above 20 as DG said. Monday EUO will gap up I’m sure.

  259. Silverhound

    Kal

    There is a way to get the 1068 target from the way they have drawn the chart but it’s an extreme (lower probability) target and it’s not the inverse head and shoulders they mention.

  260. Gary

    I would be very careful shorting into these kind of extreme sentiment conditions. Anything coming out of the G7 that even remotely looks like it could kick the can down the road, even if only for a few months, could spark a huge rally.

  261. Beksachi

    Gary Said “With all the currency intervention going on now one has to have a death wish to be playing in the currency markets.”

    then said

    “I would be very careful shorting into these kind of extreme sentiment conditions. Anything coming out of the G7 that even remotely looks like it could kick the can down the road, even if only for a few months, could spark a huge rally.”

    Gary,

    I also posted a query in the subscriber blog for weekend report- please take a look.

    I guess I assumed by now that cycles tend to proceed regardless of news and hence, with $ having put the intermediate cycle low in May, it’s pretty much all up from here (regardless of news).

  262. Harry

    Gary, how did you get 8/17 for a daily cycle low on the dollar? I assumed it was 8/29 (triangle consolidation rule), which would put us on Day 9. It sure doesn’t look like it wants to roll over anytime soon…

  263. Hack

    Gary;

    Sure, the worlds leaders can appear to be in charge but it is obvious that the voters are in charge now. Germans will not allow Merkel to bailout the Mediterranian countries and Americans will not allow Obama to continue his reckless spending. Look at Bernanke, his hands are tied by ObamaCare. He knows that there wil be no job growth as this law goes into effect. So really, what can he do? Besides, the market is rigged and is turning folks off as a vehicle to invest their money. I see money pouring out of the market worldwide and this will continue for the next two or three years. So shorting becomes an option that could return a nice profit…

  264. Gary

    The low came on Aug 17th unless this is a really, really stretched cycle, which it can’t be now that we have confirmation of an intermediate bottom.

  265. SF Giants Fan

    Either way, we have our stops in place. I’m going to let the trade work until the stops are hit. I didn’t take the qqq trade (because of the $) but I am in the other one.

  266. SF Giants Fan

    Here is an indicator on the economy i use is when I fill up, I stroll around the pumps and see how many have stopped at $5 or less. Today I saw 3.

    Ben its bad out there!!

    Think big Ben pumps his own gas let alone knows were to put it?

  267. Harry

    Beksachi, I hadn’t seen that particular post, but yes, that’s what I’m referring to. Doc has invoked it as well a few times in the past (the most recent time I can recall is deciding where the intermediate low on oil was last summer, but don’t quote me on that until I can find the specific post – Doc, if you see this, please confirm). On second thought, I don’t know if Gary has ever used it, so I probably shouldn’t have brought it up here.

  268. Beksachi

    Harry,

    Got it- I will look into Doc’s older posts for any theory on “tricon” rule.

    FYI- DOC is also aligned with Gary: according to them 8/17 was last $ cycle low.

    Should be interesting week for $

    thanks

  269. ร‰amonn

    MrMiyagi, I am subscribed to McClellan. He is expecting a major stock market bottom in late September/early October, followed by a major rally into the year end. Hope that helps :o)

  270. SF Giants Fan

    Look at that. The dollar is down with everything else. We might be back to cash by the EOD.

    Eamonn

    Us Americans are very spoiled when it comes to gas prices. Our economy would collapse if we paid what u paid. Wait our economy is already collapsing.

  271. SF Giants Fan

    Eamonn

    3x ETF takes balls of steel. Don’t tell Gary but I bought URTY and thank god got out with a profit. That moved as much as 20% in one day!! Stops cant save you on a gap down. Never again. Me back to 1x ETF’s

    Oh explosion at nuke plant??

  272. St. Deluise

    effective volume in /es says it should be trading at 1190 right now.

    seriously!

    something very strange is afoot.

    or the big money who is holding through this will be very, very disappointed. very possible!

  273. St. Deluise

    sorry i know i talk about this a lot without explaining it-

    it’s essentially a running sum of volume during up bars minus volume during down bars.

    so if there’s huge volume going up and no volume going down.. money is still in the market at the higher prices. so that’s where price is likely to return.

    this has been the story in /es. the buying has dwarfed the selling in the last week. right now the same amount of longs are commited in /es as they were when it was trading at 1189 or so. either they are WRONG or they know something..

    one could google “effective volume pascal willain” for more detail. it’s a very interesting idea.

  274. Shalom Bernanke

    Morning, fellers.

    I don’t see anything to be done today, so looks like I got my long weekend after all. ๐Ÿ™‚

    I’ll check back later, but don’t anticipate any cause for action, and it might even take all week (or into next), before I get active adding to miners again.

    Patience should pay nicely. Good luck out there!

  275. St. Deluise

    gold’s weakness here is interesting. how many people were expecting a huge pop up over the weekend with all the new euro drama? i know i was- enough to sell my puts. just bought them back.

    wonder if /gc can break friday’s low at 1825.5

  276. MikeStiller

    Gary-
    Would you say the SPX cycle is very tough to call right now? Either we are still looking for the mid-cycle low at day 23 or we have topped out and are working down into the daily cycle low with about 17 days left to run. What would be your marker to determine where we are? Either a new low under 1080 or a new high above 1200?

    Thanks

  277. Gary

    Yes both possibilities are in play. But a lower low is enough to kick out the QQQ position. I will say if the dollar continues into the close we look like we might have a daily cycle top forming.

  278. St. Deluise

    if /es can regain the HOD around 1150 i think a long with a stop around 1140 would be appropriate. i think it’ll happen if it can turn here.

    might be the catalyst to break the IT gold support as well. or if /dx can break its sunday night high at 78.295 but as gary alluded to shorting gold is destined to be a frustrating experience ..for now.

    anyway that’s it for me today, good luck everyone.

  279. Shalom Bernanke

    WW,

    I suppose I expected or was prepared for more weakness (like I am now), if I didn’t add on the days you mentioned. I can’t recall those days specifically, as this trade has been going on since the beginning of June.

    I’m not predicting weakness in miners, just prepared if it should come. I do see LOTS of bullish talk on them lately, and Sprott’s $1200 silver possibility is usually a sign things are tired, overbought, and primed to pull back.

    We’ll see, but I’m sure I won’t get it exactly right. Just picking my spots. ๐Ÿ™‚

  280. deshy

    MikeStiller:
    Was Gary referring to a $USD daily top vs SPX? Only asking because I think the $USD is sporting an exhaustion candle today.

  281. JJ

    Yes, I’m sure I was clicking on the SoS link… The page is popping up correctly now – could have been some kind of a glitch.

  282. Dan

    Not really following gdxj as it never broke out. This could still just be more backtesting the breakout area just not liking that HUI is not outperforming metal and markets anymore.

  283. William Wallace

    Gold will have to go to 2000 or better for miners to even attempt to go parabolic, gold may push back above 1900 but I would say it’s not going to even be making a new high before rolling over into a pullback to the 150sma atleast. A break above 1925 would change my outlook.

  284. wolf33

    sold a lot last week—not sure why. added zsl—bot qid on weakness this morning.

    did add little gdx in here—see what happens.

    intrnals—sick on broads so my guess take out 1140 just opinon.

  285. wolf33

    debate tonight bothers me–da boyz may use funny money to stop break of 1140 spx. if close say spx 1139 then this thing really weak. jmo but backed by interals.

  286. Dan

    Wow this is ugly…and getting expensive! Holding for now but were below the breakout level and underperforming relative to metals and markets so not sure I wanna hold this overnight.

  287. sophia

    OVERDONE!

    DAX off 33% since April- S&P and NSQ keep selling off…this is not the end of the world as we know it…
    And I am starting to be fed up with the doom and gloom…
    SO, we should bounce back as the Europeans will make it, Greece will get help, people in California as well

  288. sophia

    And by the way, CNBC says that people are selling Gold because of the margin calls on other markets, but Nasdaq and S$P are higher than at the beginning of August, so does it mean that smart money is starting to shift out of expensive assets and into cheap assets?

  289. John V

    Sell stops are getting hit for losses. Not doom and gloom…just fact. ๐Ÿ™‚

    Losing trades happen, especially in a market like this.

  290. sophia

    I really think that we might have a turning point here…Gold/silver hammered, stocks taken in….
    Exactly as Gary said it would happen at one point, expect that we are 2 months later….

  291. Shalom Bernanke

    My stop on the miners is not an HUI level, but based on my overall % of portfolio at risk. I don’t know what that would equate to on the HUI, as I’m trading a basket of stocks (7 names).

    I can say I’m nowhere near stopping out, and the plan is to add more long sometime this week.

    For awhile we’ve known Sept could be tough, and we’re seeing that now.

  292. St. Deluise

    checking in..

    there may be another big bounce in gold but imHo you can put a fork in it. the big move will come overnight probably. already less volume in it than 1793, where you can be sure the vast majority of hot money stops are. should that break overnight it may be swift.

    will reassess if it can reclaim 1860. it has definitely surprised me before.

    whether or not GDX follows it down i do not know. there is certainly a lot more buy volume supporting it. not touching it.

    stocks are more ambiguous but i think risk:reward favors a small long position. now own SPY 130 calls for november.

  293. William Wallace

    SB,

    GDX is sitting on the 20sma and the lower trendline, if you dont buy now I really dont think you will be buying at all. This is the third significant puke since the june low, and as I mentioned earlier you didnt buy the last puke, so what type of puke are you looking for to finally buy, a D-wave?

  294. sophia

    Mr M

    Ancient history…
    The average English man doesnt get fazed out by rioters, IRA bombing or WW2 blitz…so 20 rioters with machetes are not going to change any habit!

  295. Dan

    I made a killing on silver and then added to it with silver puts and since then my account has just been a big mess, up and down up and down and have gone no absolutely nowhere for months. What an incredible waste of time and energy.

  296. Shalom Bernanke

    WW,

    That might end up being the case, that I don’t get a new oppty to add (tomorrow), but I’ll take my chances as I’m already pretty well longed up. I’ve been buying some consistently for awhile and want to be sure and keep strong hand status.

    I’m not trying to see how much I can buy, especially right before what feels like further weakness. I’d prefer to see HUI try and torture us by going below 590, even 580, and it’d be a strong buy (not just the nibbling I do when we’re stronger). One indicator might be oversold levels on relative strength, but I can promise I’ll do some buying if we get there. ๐Ÿ™‚

  297. William Wallace

    This drop in the miners is nothing, if gold enters an intermediate decline then longs will really be feeling the pain.

    Its time to sit tight and let the market put in a new low, load up and ride the bear market rally to the 200.

  298. Farm Girl

    If HUI is over 600 near the close and SPX over 1140, I will probalby take another bite of NUGT. Has to be a lot of printing in Europe to either save or abandon Greese, and a lot of printing here to avoid the double-dip.

  299. Shalom Bernanke

    Today’s retest of the breakout is the exact reason I don’t buy breakouts.

    That doesn’t mean breakouts don’t matter, they do. A breakout tips the market’s hand to future direction, but rarely is it straight up immediately after the breakout.

    This is is typical if you ask me.

  300. William Wallace

    Joseph,

    Gold has already rallied, show me where gold has gone parabolic with a rallying dollar, unless ofcourse gold is not going parabolic and it will either just consolidate or grind marginally higher until the dollar rally is finished.

  301. William Wallace

    This is what I see…gold has already rallied like mad while dollar was basing…dollar is rallying now and gold is consolidating waiting to correct…market is consolidating waiting to put in a new low. Lets see what happens from here.

  302. jeff

    China buying Italian bonds maybe positive for stocks, gold and bearish for USD. China is pegged to rallying USD. Euro is sinking relative to USD so China will have trouble exporting to Euroland cheaply.

    Anyway, China dumps USD and treasuries in exchange for Euro and Euro debt. This will cause euro to rally and USD to fall. And so perhaps stocks and gold rise and USD can enter its daily cycle low. Do your own research…

  303. D

    Hey MrMiyagi nice chart pointing out the volume. Just wondering what previous level are you referring to on the spy?

  304. MrMiyagi

    D,
    The one just prior to the climb, 114.25$-ish level. Just an intraday, heck intra-30 minute move.
    Same with big price down on large volume spike; it takes out all the bids and then goes up to almost where it started from. After that, it goes in either direction but on occasion, if you are quick, you can catch that move, make a quick profit and get out.

  305. William Wallace

    Now what, many are stopped out of miners at a loss right on the 20sma and trendline, while at the same time expecting gold to push higher (which will certainly push miners higher). That doesn’t make sense to me, where am I going wrong here?

  306. ckpc

    Hoping this is just a retest of the HUI. I added a wee bit to my GDX on the puke, and also sold Oct. $6.00 puts on SVM for $.95. If the stock gets put to me in October, I’ll pick it up for $5.05/share which is a good price in my book. If it doesn’t get put to me, then I have a nice chunk of cash coming into my account.

    I’m liking the way gold and the markets are rebounding going into the close.

  307. St. Deluise

    /es 1230 by friday (opex)

    gold started galloping along stocks towards the end there. but if it can’t keep up the trot i believe its next stop will be the alpo factory.

  308. Poly

    At ease,

    Yes still holding, trades need room to breath. DCL is at $1,794, we’re comfortably above that with favorable daily/IT cycle counts.

    Although my main concern is gold’s decoupling (past 2 days) of the recent dollar/treasuries/fear correlations.

    As for miners, HUI at previous breakout (610) suffered an impressive drop today, but it’s technically OK, bounced of 20dma support and part of the volatility ride one should expect when invested in miners.

  309. Farm Girl

    WW – “Gold has already rallied, show me where gold has gone parabolic with a rallying dollar, unless ofcourse gold is not going parabolic and it will either just consolidate or grind marginally higher until the dollar rally is finished.”

    OCt-Nov ’09
    Gold $780 -> $920 +18%
    USD 76 -> 86 +13%

    Reason : fear of US/Europe financial lock-up and contagion causes flight to safe havens: gold and the dollar

    Welcome to Sept. 2011

  310. ...at ease

    Poly,
    That was nerve wracking ride. I have not had much luck with miners trades (Qs either). Perhaps this hold will bring me a better outcome. ๐Ÿ™‚

  311. ALEX

    AAHHH,

    This “hope” could cost me a litlle…I can take a retest of todays lows tomorrow…but lower than that and its not free anymore ๐Ÿ™‚

    Goodnight all

  312. coolkevs

    Demark info from Kevin Depew at Minyanville:
    German DAX – adding insult to injury, it qualified a DOWN WEEKLY level today, implying a full TD Sequential 13 WEEKLY Buy has to occur amid lower prices, which could take 3-4 months or so (12 weeks – not necessarily consecutive). 35% drop just isn’t enough…
    On the DAILY charts, DAX may record a TD Sequential 13 tomorrow, which implies a couple weeks (12 trading days) of relief rally.
    Also, lining up is a WEEKLY BUY Setup, which potentially will record next week, implies 1-4 weeks of countertrend for the DAX before the Sequential WEEKLY takes hold again.
    So, maybe we will see that true Bear Market Rally that lasts longer than a day.
    US Markets, although showing better relative strength, still have more downside – need a few more down days to record a DAILY Sequential BUY signal. However, unlike the DAX, SPX and its brethren have not qualified a WEEKLY DOWN level which is in the 1040’s. MONTHLY down level is in the 900’s, and it requires an up month, followed by a down month below the 900ish level, then a down open on the first day of the month. If September finishes up, the earliest this could be qualified is Nov 1. This qualification of a monthly level occurred in June 2008 and was a true get out of Dodge moment. Not saying it can’t happen, but it seems unlikely as we are emerging from the June-September selling window that was the result of a MONTHLY SELL setup that recorded in May.
    Thanks for reading!

  313. diana

    I know this is a gold/silver blog, but I was just wondering if anyone has been looking to invest in any agriculture stocks/etfs? Even if the American/European economies sink for awhile (which I’m expecting), the developing countries are still predicted to increase their standard of living (i.e. eating more meat, which means more corn/wheat production, which means more fertilizer use and more transportation to markets), etc.

    I’ve been looking at Potash (POT), Agrium (AGU), Viterra (VT.TO), Billiton (BHP), Caterpillar (CAT) for farm equipment, etc. This would be for investing, not trading, and I would wait to see if the markets go lower.

    Any thoughts or suggestions would be valued. Thank you so much!

  314. Poly

    I don’t trade the daily cycle horizon/movements, but it’s getting a little ridiculously bearish, even for a bear like me. If I had to guess, we should see some decent strength, even for just a few days ๐Ÿ™‚

  315. Michele

    Golly, it sure seems like a lot of folks are getting whipsawed here. C’mon guys, when the VIX is hovering around 40, this is what happens.

    I’ve cut way back on my trading and don’t plan on coming back until some sanity returns to the market. And no, I’m not holding my breath.

    The Night Owl
    http://thenightowltrader.blogspot.com

  316. Veronica

    With the 9 day displaced average being support for the 14th day now(on a closing basis) it is do or die time. It bottoms today and starts moving higher for the next 8 days.

  317. jeff

    Maybe we are at the half daily cycle bottom on spy/miners. Though when the market doesn’t do what it should, sometimes the sideline is better place to be for your sanity.

  318. RJ

    Guys,

    I feel the need to finally point it out, but likesmoney.dojispace.com is a knock off of Gary. A bunch of months ago he was posting Gary’s charts right out of the nightly report.

    Not saying he isn’t credible, a student of the game, but everyone is going to have their own opinion on cycles, especially in this case with so much uncertainty.

  319. sophia

    WW,

    Thanks for your answer at 3.49pm…You seem to be right spot on at the moment, I hooe that you are making tons of cash.
    Take care
    Sophia

  320. sophia

    Poly,

    I am in our camp…on top of reading only negative news last weekend, when the markets were on their lows yesterday, they talked about a nuclear disaster in France…that was the top of the bearishness for me and I saw the markets reacting a tiny bit the the downside and come ba back so I bought into it….
    We are running short of sellers of stocks down here….

  321. sophia

    Bottom line,

    Iti is Opex week and the market is oversold…
    So my guess that we rally into Friday, another bad news hit just before the weekend ( Irene comimg back with a revenge, Greece, Italy, terrorist scare- what did they say last weekend to freak everybody ” terrorist attack very possible but source not verified” what kind of BS is this?)
    So we selloff of the gloom to rally back by the end of September and start a nice little rally in October/ november

  322. SF Giants Fan

    RJ

    Yea I know he has posted some of Garys work in the past but lately some of his post are different than Garys. My point in posting his work is point out different possible senerios.

    I’ve learned lately to to my own due diligence and make my own decisions. If that means listening to the other heavy hitters on this blog or checking other sites before I make a trade that’s what I do. I will never blame gary or anyone else but myself for a bad trade.

    I stopped short of selling my GDX today because SB made a comment “you might be selling to me”. AKA heavy hitter.

    We will see … I might sell tomorrow at a higher price.

  323. Dubbelito

    Veronica,
    Gold pierced the displaced moving average but looks like it wants to stay above it at the moment (14,+9). Do you take stock in intraday low printed or is the closing of more importance?

    Thanks.
    /D

  324. Dubbelito

    Veronica,
    agreed, delicate balance indeed.

    I was also inclined to think that closing were of more importance with this tool. BTW, is it 14 as the time period you use? Remeber that I asked you once but have forgotten since then.

  325. St. Deluise

    with every little overnight flash crash in /gc, more money leaves than comes back in on the bounce. eventually it’s going to break.

    probably today, actually

  326. NJ

    SF / VW:

    Isn’t a 10% stake in a 3x ETF rouhgly the same as a 30% stake in say a QQQ? In a trendcing market, your risk / reward would be similar?

    Now a 30% stake in a 3x ETF in this environment…..Wow!

  327. Veronica

    WW, I think you’re right about the dollar resuming it’s rise in earnest soon. I’ve been working on an IT term DX system and every large rally since 2001 has been characterized by very shallow,quick corrections back to the buy point. If we just hang around this point for several weeks it will be destined to fail.I just read that an executive for BNP Paribas say that they are not able to buy USD’s.

  328. St. Deluise

    i think the dollar will continue to rally but its effect on equities/commodities is now irrelevant.

    ALL assets going forth will rise. the game is buying the unloved ones (e.g. stocks) and selling the ones that crazy people think will just go up forever no matter what (ahem.. gold).

  329. wolf33

    internals—while treated me well–like poox now.

    have weakness in broads—-wrong so far—lets see what happens

    pm stks —-strong—-not yet

    these mkts are crap—just playing with lot less money—none in 2 accounts—small other two

  330. Shalom Bernanke

    I was hoping to see the 590 level get breached in the HUI today, but so far don’t see any action to be taken.

    I’ll check back later, but just in case I’m putting in some limits to buy far below current prices (several % in each name).

    Let’s see how it shakes out.

  331. Farm Girl

    Bought the second bite of NUGT. When gold goes over 1840, will take the last bite. I expect a euro resolutin this coming weekend, followed by a Fed program on the 21st.

  332. ALEX

    Just an update from me in case anyone holds miners, etc

    I was looking for this ( I already posted this(just in case you missed it). I felt it went perfectly so far

    http://www.screencast.com/t/MLhXi2kliz

    NOW- I wasnt exactly looking for a FAST rapid burst upward today, so If anyone is wondering what to expect, you could expect this…

    On todays chart, notice the last couple of 2 day scary sell offs(red arrows)the next day it just hung around a bit before resuming the uptrend.
    ON the 2nd sell off..it looks like it just took off again (green arrow) the next day , BUT please notice that it GAPPED DOWN and sold off under the 20sma to start that day.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/t4jw4KyxLu

    The start of that day was probably a strong desire to sell miners and fear…so today it’s still early for me to “feel” whats going on today.
    1) If we CLOSE below the 20sma..I will watch closely- hair up on the back of my neck
    2) If it rises later today …I will fell better

    So far, its doing just what I was looking for.

  333. Moneyman

    Farm Girl

    Same here..We will see some kind of solution in the Euro one. Short term!

    People are tired of the mess in Europe..Same shit everyday..We all know that Greece will default..

    Will also be interesting to see if Fed will do something here to support the market.

    Not expecting anything from the Fed at this point..But who knows..I read about some program to support the housing market. If we get some program the market will rally.

    I think that if we see some kind of solution in Europe we might go higher here..A lot of people are so bearish..On the same side..

    And we all know that Bernanke and the guys around him will do everything to support the market at this point så for me its to late to short the market here..Im long the stockmarket for now..

    Have a nice day!

  334. Hack

    I wouldn’t base a purchase on the EuroTrash solving their problems or the Fed waving a magic wand over the market. This market will go lower…

  335. William Wallace

    Farm Girl

    Gold was in a D-wave when the dollar was rallying out of the 08 three year low.

    Gold and the dollar did not rally together from Oct-Nov of 09 as you say…if im missing something please shown me where I am going wrong.

  336. ALEX

    At EASE

    Did you notice that both GDX and NUGT drifted down to their 20sma today, tagged it, and buying came in? Thats what you want -I.M.H.O.

    But watch where it closes, you dont really want to see a sell off and close below there.

    I will be gone the rest of today…Best wishes all

  337. marksomething

    Mr. M

    I have a criBRIDGE game I could sell you, just that the board has no holes for the pegs and three 9’s are missing from the deck. I replaced them with 6’s from another deck. I figure you can turn them upside down.

  338. Movax2

    …at ease: Thanks. If gold can hold the new trend line, expect some wild and crazy things.. take a look at the nasdaq in ’98.. Gold is somewhere there IMO, but nothing to stop a scary huge correction first. Huge correction seems most likely actually, but I’m in ’til gold tells me to get out.

  339. DP

    Veronica —

    My question is that 9 point displaced 9 DMA looks too much detached from the graph in the past, not speaking about latest week.

    If that’s right, what makes it special with respect, say, 20 DMA?

  340. Harry

    Somebody want to explain to me why oil is back over $90 while the dollar is rallying and the global economy is on the verge of collapse?

  341. Veronica

    When you look at previous gold rallies, this one looks very similar to the beginning of 2008 chart wise and in relation to the displaced 9day. On the futures chart the support it was giving was very obvious and the bounce we’re getting right now seems to confirm that, IMO.A stop at 1793.8 seems like a good risk/reward to me because if we keep following the 2008 pattern the gain can be quite big in a relatively short amount of time.Also, my system remains on a buy, although with 8 straight wins the risk is growing.

  342. Harry

    Silverhound, yes, I expected Gary to be about a foot taller and have a golden halo around his head. I was pretty disappointed, to be honest.

  343. Poly

    Veronica,

    You’re spot on, I’ve been tracking this for a while. It’s also aligning beyond the chart patterns that (likely what you’re seeing with your buy signal) so much is in agreement to support this trade.
    I still have “2 lots” open on GLD, one will stop at $1,790 the 2nd at the DCL.
    The recent action has done much in the way of clearing sentiment and consolidating the massive first leg of this IT cycle run up.

    Prepare yourselves, we might well be on the verge of a rip-snorting rally that you will never forget!

  344. wolf33

    cef 2% nav discount last night.

    bot these stock in preference order. All done when in the red. all based on technicals. cef was green

    iaf—auy—nem—-cef—-ric—gdx

  345. DP

    Veronica —

    Try to plot 4 point BACKWARD displaced 9 DMA, and you’ll be amazed how good is the correspondence of it with the chart.

    What is your 9 point FORWARD displaced 9 DMA is doing, is:

    places under each price candle 13 days old low-pass filtered price history of the instrument.

  346. Veronica

    Gold may be sniffing a Bear Stearns event, with a European touch, much like we had in 2008. If that turns out to be the case the Europeans will now be buying gold and US dollars.If I’m way off base here the 1793 stop will take me out and my system stop lower will take me out of system trades.

  347. Shalom Bernanke

    Just checking in and see I didn’t get any fills (buys) today in the miners.

    Total equity did push into new all time highs today. I’ll continue to hold and look for spots to add, but won’t be surprised if we have to muddle through some sideways action the next 2-4 weeks.

  348. David

    “With all the currency intervention going on now one has to have a death wish to be playing in the currency markets.”

    While correct for most people, these currency markets offer some of the best opportunities for traders with a provable edge, in my opinion

  349. St. Deluise

    mistake of the day: being overweight a short position (gold) and underweight a long (spy)

    shorts should always take the back seat. especially gold which is of course continues to be stubborn about exploding into a fiery mess.

    anyway plan stays the same

    long dollar
    long stocks
    short gold

    see ya tomorrow

  350. Blindweb

    I was also looking at the similarities with the end of 2007 into 2008 and now gold.

    Miners barely beat gold during the second leg up in the beginning of 2008. Hui/Gold is lower now though. Oil price is similar to then. Dollar stayed relatively flat during that period in 08. CCI is higher now.

  351. sophia

    St Deluise,

    Thinking samelines as you regarding stocks, just trying to find a decent entry point, so buyng dips, not selling rallies anymore….surprise will come to the upside in the third quarter

  352. MrMiyagi

    It wasn’t meant as an insult to you! It was meant that I was less than a shining star… oh what’s the point.. the world will end in a year… no one cares…
    Ahhh… sorry got distracted there for a second..

  353. sophia

    Mr M, you crack me up! Did ou sell your place yet?
    Btw, here in London UK, people have difficulties to get the house they want to buy! Where is the recession ?

  354. MrMiyagi

    sophia,
    Not yet, I am 75% finished though. Usually fall is the best selling timeframe up here as summers are short and people are always outside doing whatever they do to make noise.

  355. St. Deluise

    sophia and anyone else, here’s my logic for the long /es short /gc trade.

    http://i54.tinypic.com/2005jrq.png

    the below indicator is “essentially” (but not quite) a running sum of volume on up bars vs volume on downbars normalized to the size of the bar. /es is on the left and /gc is on the right.

    as you can see someone has been buying, holding, and buying more /es since 8/23.

    silimilarly with gold, the vast majority of participants left on the first plunge. the mini crash early this morning was particularly damaging to the technical case imo.

    but we’ll see. it could very well be that the “big money” (or “brave money” in /es’s case) completely eat it.

  356. TZ(8155)

    I thought gold had topped and called time for a selloff two weeks ago.

    It didn’t drop, but I then hedged and said that my system was a bit ambiguous and the selloff could have, instead, been last week.

    But no real selloff last week either (I’m talking crash and burn types selloffs. CLEAR tops. Not just slightly down weeks.)

    So we are out of my “it’s a peak” window and a drop didn’t happen.

    That means to me that we are now in a consolidation and will soon resume higher (probably by a few 100 dollars).

    Consolidations, of course, are usually channels or triangles or wedges. When you can figure out the shape of it you can usually figure out a good entry and stop points for a leveraged trade (as I like to do).

    The current problem is that the shape isn’t clear yet.

    We kinda have a triangle on the daily, but the lower slope is very steep and the top isn’t flat which would be preferrable. It’s all lopsided and screwy looking.

    Instead of that formation you could argue there is a smaller triangle in the last 7-10 days with a flat bottom and a down sloping top. Maybe that one is about to break higher (after spiking down last night as a final kick to the longs). Or…maybe it is a pause before we go lower and start creating a more normal shaped triangle on the daily by returning to 1750 or so.

    Kinda messy.

    So…I’m mostly cash with a core metals position, currently expecting we are in a consolidation soon to head higher and looking for some kind of clue or entry to get a good buy in.

    By it’s nature I know I can’t find or time the perfect trade so in situations like this I give it multiple attempts – best guess – with small stops. I tried a buy yesterday thinking last friday’s low would hold, but that got stopped out. There will probably be one or two more before I can get it right. And of course it is better to wait until you think you have a good attempt. Other than yesterday I haven’t seen more yet.

    If we go lower I have points to buy set up. And if we head higher I will find a way to chase. For now I’m just waiting to see if it can form something I recognize as playable.

  357. TZ(8155)

    If we go lower my next buy point is approx 1775. Some people have posted that they will be worried if gold goes much below 1800, but I only think that 1700 has to hold for this to still be some sort of consolidation on its way higher.

  358. TZ(8155)

    An interesting point:

    stockcharts[PUT.DOT.HERE.TO.FIX]com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER:$GOLD&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p72813117492

    Silver is and has been completely flat-to-down against gold since the peak months ago and during this accelerated phase of gold’s rally.

    There is clearly no reason at this time to have significant silver investments until something changes. You aren’t getting higher returns against gold and the pattern will likely continue going forward until after the next D wave and things reset. Just my thoughts on the matter.

  359. TZ(8155)

    (Of course silver isn’t really doing much WORSE than gold, so it isn’t a loss to own some. It would give you diversification, but if silver can’t outperform here then, as gary says, it will likely suffer more when gold finally peaks and decides to put in a real pullback. And meanwhile all you get for your trouble (other than diversification) is higher volatility and worse spreads and liquidity (compared to gold investments).

  360. Poly

    TZ, in general agreement.

    Now that this daily cycle is moving to the mid point, I expect at some point this daily cycle will need to print a new all time high to make this a right translated cycle. Although maybe a little “to easy”, the FOMC on the 21st could provide the catalyst for new high’s. A dollar moving into it’s DCL will also provide plenty of fuel.