In my last post I hypothesized that the bear market in stocks had finally sunk its teeth into the precious metals sector. I was looking for a final move down into a true D-wave bottom, coupled with the HUI dropping down to test the 200 week moving average. I could not have been more wrong!

Instead gold formed a double bottom at $1600 and yesterday confirmed a trend change to a pattern of higher highs and higher lows.

As is usually the case the miners played follow the leader and reversed their downtrend also.

It is now clear that gold put in an intermediate degree bottom on September 26. The double bottom is a much stronger basing pattern then a V-shaped rebound and should launch a test of the $2000 level at some point during this intermediate cycle.

792 thoughts on “D-WAVE ABORTED

  1. Liquid Motion

    Admission that you were wrong is a great strength. Kudos.
    Sounds like you picked the break though and saved face for subscribers.
    I think the COT was a big telling factor on where Gold was headed. So too is the soon to be combined efforts of the FED and ECB.
    Have been watching and holding steady.
    All fiats are in trouble.
    Q : Do we see the retracement to 1900-2000 level as the final c-wave move and then a consolidation for most of 2012 (at say 1700-1800), before the exponential move? Or a much deeper d-wave to take it down to 1450 after this cycle/wave is complete. Seems the 1600 level was well supported …it has bounced off that level on several occasions.
    Could very well have been the last opportunity to buy gold cheap.
    To me this is not going to be a short term play…comms and mms will be restricted in their shorts ..worth keep an eye on the lcns for both au and ag.
    I have this feeling that the material nature of the future cash printing of EUR/USA/CHINA will create a mania in PM’s.
    Great reading your perspectives and balancing it up with my own views. Staying the course.

  2. The Green Family

    Question for all: is there a way for me to trade on Gary’s portfolio on the Australian stock exchange? I’m thinking of the ETF’s, gold stocks, etc. Are there enough equivalents on the Aussie market for me to do the trading there, or would I need to, pretty much, for the North American time zone?

  3. Bill

    Gary, I echo others in saying it’s great to change course when facts change.

    I’m still troubled on cycles though – I don’t see how they are reliable. Take this change – did cycles support the old scenario? I assume they did. If so, how does one reconcile price action with cycles if they aren’t complimentary? Price trumps cycles? If so, why use cycles at all, and focus only on price, I wonder?


  4. JaketheFake

    The Green Family,
    I have a brokerage account in Australia and I will tell you one thing. The possibilities on trading are much more limited than on US markets. For example, there is no such thing as a bear market ETF, to my knowledge. If i want to bet that gold or the ASX 200 is going to go down, I can’t do it on the ASX. Would have to use options or sell short. But they do have a fairly healthy number of long ETFs. You can find them on the ASX website. On gold miners, of course, the underlying stocks will be those trading on the ASX rather than in No. America, though (I think).

  5. intelliblue2000

    The Green Family – have you tried using Interactive Brokers? I am in the US, but broker allows us to trade in any stock market. You have to specify the markets you want to trade in during the application process.

  6. gideon

    i am long gold in general, but i favor that this one will be a fakeout. If it gets significantly above the 50 day I might start scaling in.

  7. Gary

    Actually cycles are what allowed me to spot the bottom. The fact that gold was nearing the timing band for a cycle low and formed a swing low at 1600 instead of accelerating to the downside was a big clue that gold was going to form a double bottom instead of continuing down.

    Cycles are an excellent tool for telling one when to step on the gas and when to coast, but they aren’t a perfect timing tool, especially for spotting tops.

    One just has to know the limitations of their tools and use them for what they are good for. In the case of cycles they’re mostly good for spotting bottoms.

  8. mikezza

    any similarities between this action and the double bottom in august and september of 2008. during that one we had a few rocket days up and then it consolidated for month and rolled back over. how did the cycles line up during that one

  9. Gary

    We have all the odds stacked in our favor in the precious metals markets right now. Instead of trying to find reasons to doubt the move, you should be finding reasons to trust it.

  10. mikezza

    i’m in gold, silver, and miners now. i am just amazed though at how closely stocks gold and dollar have tracked 2008 path to this point so i’m just trying to avoid a repeat

  11. Gary

    Stocks appear to be in the initial stages of a bear market but still have a long way to go before the next four year cycle low. Whether or not the dollar rally resumes will probably determine how the future plays out.

    Gold however looks nothing like 2008.

  12. Aaron

    …and for the umpteenth time, the D wave has been aborted. Maybe we should just forget about this so caled D wave aye Gary?

  13. RJ

    Nuclear bombs going off in the currency markets and gold is quiet as a mouse both in price and volume.

    Are any of you leveraged longs here nervous or happy about this action?

    Gold digesting gains for a bit, or something else?

  14. Slumdog

    RJ, gold closed the daily gap today, trading down to the 170x range.

    This pattern is one of 2 things, a bull trap with the price waiving new recovery highs just a moment ago, and letting all come running before the floor falls out, or equally probably the mezzanine of the first move of a series of three, with the next being nearly equal to the last, and the one after being the blow off high.

    So, a number like 1800 is an easy call as level 2, and then one more step up, possibly in an hourly parabola to the 2000 range. At that last leg of the parabola, or in this case, stepped pyramid, gold will blow off.

    I who am cautious in my public predictions just went long, even at this higher high as I sense this market has not exploded up, yet, and the 2nd will beget the 3rd.

  15. SF Giants Fan

    Things are so bad in silicon valley for local governments they are proposing a parcel tax to fix the roads and streets.

    What next, charge for a fire truck to respond to a house fire?

  16. coolkevs

    As we celebrate the “solution” to the Euro debt crisis, stocks will become seriously overbought (again) tomorrow according to the Mclellan oscillator. It worked off some of the condition on Tuesday and this morning only to shoot for the moon again this afternoon. Continue to look for some kind-of reversion to the mean (0) – of course, for those short, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, but it seems we might be reaching a significant top in stocks very soon (longer than a 1 day selloff at least).

  17. ver

    We may get an ideal entry point for a starter short position if stocks gap up on the open, which could play out as a “sell the news” reversal to put a bow around all the other signals we’re seeing (half-cycle timing, bullish sentiment, and selling on strength).

  18. ver

    Of course, as always, the key is controlling position size and risk in case the dollar falls apart and stocks keep running.

  19. aklaunch

    Gold bull: surprises to the upside.

    Market Bear: surprises to the down side.

    I think this is going to be retirement nirvana until DOW 12,400.

  20. Bill

    I’m hoping that spot gold backtests the breakout of (roughly) $1700, so I can buy.

    Though the situation in Europe sounds good today, no way can debt there nor in the US can disappear so easily. When folks are in debt, they stop buying. So I’m staying away from the S&P for now. I think Gary’s bear market scenario will play out.

    So instead of wasting my time on the S&P, there’s better hunting in gold, me thinks.

  21. Bill

    Sophia, when you guy gold, do you use the ETF’s like GLD, IAU, etc? Or do you focus on ETF’s that have physical, like CEF, GTU, or PHYS?

    And if you don’t mind, are you looking at miners via GDX? That fall for AEM really shook me, so for now I’ll stick with pure gold. RGLD looks good … still researching the company though.

    Thank you.

  22. Danno

    Spidey sense tells me true dollar bottom may come within days. If gold shows signs of exhaustion I will dump.

    Gold chart looks good if you squint just right. So does a 5 dollar whore.

  23. Mətušélaḥ


    I have initiated a short position via a leveraged short ETF. I will be adding to that short position as certain criteria are met, namely the DX dollar index is above 77.55

  24. Bill

    I think that as long as spot gold stays above $1700 it’s a buy, as it’d be a pullback. Gary’s charts show it all quite perfectly.

    If price closes below $1700 I’d sell, as I don’t have the kahuna’s to hold down to $1600.

    A reminder that COT looks good for GL too – OE at multi-year lows.

    See http://snalaska.net/cot/current/charts/GC.png

  25. Bill

    Danno, in my short 6 yrs as a trader, I’ve noticed that gold and the $USD aren’t always in sync. So I myself no longer look at the $USD to determine what gold will do. I watch gold to trade gold. For what it’s worth. 😉

  26. Danno

    I know what you mean. The dollar and gold can move out of sync for periods. But eventually, they can regain their inverse relationship. This re-syncing usually happens at the worst possible moment for those who gave up on the whole idea. (Speaking from experience.)

  27. Bill

    Danno, definitely could be. I’m seeing the same as you in the $USD, and I was hoping for a C wave down in $GOLD, complimenting that. But the breakout in $GOLD turned me around. Gary’s cycle magic confirms. Have to wait and see!

  28. Danno

    FWIW… not saying PMs can’t move higher here. I am still 100% long. Just saying, I’m keeping one eye on the dollar, especially if PMs start to feel sluggish.

  29. Slumdog

    Silver’s rise shows alternating shifts in market interest. Danno, this ain’t sluggish. It’s marking time, inviting shorts to propel gold higher. It’s so easy to short now as after all it’s not performing.

    This is a moment of no clarity, but from what the markets are showing especially oil, the game of fiat is showing massive degradation. The bailout won’t work, again. So, what’s left? I deal in polyester as a customer and am at a trade show. I’ll alert vendors to stock up now. Hyperinflation has finally been dealt a full house.

  30. St. Deluise

    exited gold position just now around 1730. hope to buy it lower. i don’t know. i think this rally is real but it’s got a lot of clock to run off before it makes sense.

    stocks, if they’re ever going to go down again, have to start turning down nowish. extreme buy divergence today, e.g. between close yesterday and now there are almost no new buyers.

    same dollar. buy divergence.. but there’s been buy divergence for a freakin’ week straight now.

  31. William Wallace


    Gold looks good, the last few nights it’s been sold those dips are being bought. Everyone knows I was always bearish under the 10sma daily and bullish over the 75sma. The only over head resistance is the 50sma now, unless this move is not for real gold should rip through, may give a bit of a headache like the 75 did, but it shouldn’t reverse gold significantly like the 75 did if this move is real.

  32. Bob G

    I realize that “solving the european debt crisis” is a big headline however its difficult to reconcile with the huge SOS numbers yesterday, Monday and several days last week. Will be interesting to see if, or how long, this opening gap up lasts.

  33. Gary

    If you are constantly distracted by the daily wiggles you will never be able to ride the bull. I suggest you switch to the weekly charts so you can see what’s really going on.

  34. Razvan

    You guys are paying too much attention to gold while silver has been getting its groove back. It is starting to look more like it was early in the year.

  35. Danno

    I admit I screwed up buying AGQ at the top when you warned me not to. Since then I have been working very hard and doing quite well.

    I believe the dollar is going to bottom soon.

    UUP is not $USD of course, but UUP just closed all of its gaps. Just sold UUP puts for a 41% gain (in 2 days).

  36. Clarkatroid

    raz is correct imo, its time to start re balancing some gold into silver, currently at 55/1 its too stretched. history suggests this kind of wide margin wont last, its time for silver to start playing catch up

  37. William Wallace


    I took some of the SPXU off yesterday at the 78.6% fib level (which turned out to be the lows), small loss there…I had a feeling that would be strong support and wanted to lighten up a bit. Holding the rest, see what happens now that we tagged the 200sma. Im up over 80% since the august low, so giving back 10% wont kill me.

  38. William Wallace

    SPX slightly penetrated the 50 week moving average today, past bear market rallies have been stopped here…see what happens.
    Where is Beanie, today is his day to shine?

  39. Gary

    The belief that manipulation is the cause of ones success or failure is nothing more than shifting blame for ones failure.

    That is not a recipe for success, it is an excuse for failure.

  40. sophia

    gosh, people, you are tough…
    you are made at Gary if he goes out too early of a trade, and you are made if he is making money like a maniac in 3 days! What do you WANT?

  41. Haggerty

    I had bought up some GDXJ in some of my family’s accounts, It’s not moving as well as lets say GDX, etc is there a reason for that? Should I sell one position for the other or should I not worry about that?

  42. Shalom Bernanke


    I’d sit tight. On any given day GDXJ can outperform GDX, say after a junior is bought out by a major.

    Rather than get concerned which is the best train, focus on staying on the bull. The next test of your fortitude is right around the corner (always is), and more important than which etf will be to resist the urge to sidestep a pullback. That is where the results will come from, your conviction.

  43. Harry

    sophia, we have a right to be tough. Over the past few years I’ve only made a few thousand times the price of Gary’s yearly subscription by following his advice. I consider that woeful underperformance and I’m not sure I will renew.

  44. John

    not contesting your good calls and success… but that missing that ingredient can make you much much better at calling tops and bottoms even ahead of time … example … the markets were drawing picture perfect charts just like before 2008 crash… for me that believes in market manipulation that was a clear TRAP, while everyone is screaming 2008 all over again, it was clear to me there will be no crash … i don’t blame market, manipulation for my mistakes, i always blame myself for not seeing it right … but the markets ARE manipulated … and I’m up few hundred percent in PMs since 2002/2003

  45. Danno

    Something the bulls will like…

    Many times when the MACD Signal Line crosses the zero mark, there is an explosion in price.

    Go to StockCharts.com and set the Slow Stochastics indicator to: 5,3

    We’re close.

  46. sophia


    wow, just did it, I have a twitter account! that is so cool!
    Does it mean that I could have the messages from Gary as well??

  47. Adam

    The strength from this market is unreal. If we’re getting taken up high just to fall back down again, I’ll tell ya man, a good job is being done on making me feel like I’m missing out on something. It doesn’t feel like the SPX will ever fall and it doesn’t feel like the USD will ever bottom.

  48. Supermalc


    Yes. Those countries that support short SMS means no need for twitter or tweetymail. So, text “garysavage1” and while you’re at it, “TradePoly” to 86444.

  49. Dang

    Hey Everyone!

    I have been lurking for a while now and trying to get a grip on this market (yeah right!).

    I currently just trade my 401k account and am in cash now (money market), but move in and out as I spot danger or opportunity. I use Vanguard SP500 index mostly.

    I wanted to see if I could get some thoughts about jumping back into the market right now. The dollar just moved down below the 200dma and the SnP has broken some key resistance heading up. I understand the danger to the downside, but do not want to miss any major upside if possible.

    My spidey senses tell me to get back in, but that is usually the first red flag for me 🙂

    Any thoughts will be appreciated!

  50. St. Deluise

    damn shouldn’t have sold my gold already, left about $20 on the table.

    will the dollar ever rally? sheesh. hopefully it will put a dent in gold on the attempt at least.

    taking a flier UPRO short here.

    if stocks just keep going i really like the solar etf TAN which i bought earlier this week. up about 10% today.

  51. Wav_ridah

    If you don’t have a position yet I would stop waiting bc this move is for real. Train is leaving. Still early in the cycle to get on board.

  52. intelliblue2000

    It feels good to be making some money, even if it is for a few days. I.e. if there is a profit taking or pull back, I may add more, since I am not at the Model Portfolio’s allocation yet.

  53. Danno

    Remember this?

    Danno said…

    Hmm. If that was the completion of a H&S top in the USD (may have just broken the neckline) we could see USD 73 and GLD tag its 50 ma. Just a thought.

    October 21, 2011 7:54 AM

    Told ya I’ve been trying harder!

    I don’t doubt Gary. I just need think things through for myself. After all he is a crazy rock climber. What if I need to do this without him?!?

  54. ver

    Thanks Aaron. Though I didn’t do jack about trading against it, trying to stay focused on PMs.

    That said, check out SoS. SPY on with over 400M in block trades! Perhaps it’s finally time to nibble…

  55. EricH


    With today’s action in stocks across the globe, do you still think 2012 will be one of the worst year’s in human history?

    Retail (RTH) broke the all time highs earlier in the year and now attempting another push to all time highs again. The data/action hasn’t confirmed any of the doomsday scenario yet. In a matter of fact, this recovery might pick up steam in 2012.

  56. MrMiyagi

    Haven’t seen you around for a bit but if you rad this, I finished The Grapes Of Wrath and I have concluded that it sucks to be poor and Steinbeck was a perv.

  57. Movax2

    >”Retail (RTH) broke the all time highs earlier in the year and now attempting another push to all time highs again. The data/action hasn’t confirmed any of the doomsday scenario yet. In a matter of fact, this recovery might pick up steam in 2012.”

    Do you equate inflation influenced stock prices with ‘recovery’? Do you see things as being better than in 2009 for the average citizen if prices just keep increasing?

  58. EricH


    Big money aren’t made when the danger (Greece & ECB) has cleared the horizon. Big money is usually lost this way.
    With risk come big reward. The trade was to buy into the fear 1-2 month ago and sell today (Big SPY SOS number).

  59. EricH


    Just like the gold bugs, you think there is some conspiracy going on in the retails sector? Have you seen the retail sales figure? What about earnings from all the major retailers?

  60. Danno

    It’s time to throw my Pennant-with-a-pullback theory out the window. Price has moved too high.

    Just heard back from the MAN who wrote the book ‘Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns’ [$74.84 on Amazon 1,032 pages]

    “This looks to me like a new trend. The price has moved above the top of the congestion region and it seems to be heading higher.”

  61. Mean Guy

    No complaints today, think of the days when the trades were against most of us,especially last May. Coached basketball for many years, Gary is an excellent coach and days like these are why we play this game.
    Enjoy this, the plan is coming together.

  62. ver

    Panic selling in the dollar, panic buying in stocks and PMs. Sounds like a recipe for a washout of weak hands over the next few days. Take advantage of the dips.

  63. Ben

    Eric, if in 1999, you thought 2000 would be a terrible year in tech, as I did, then you’d have looked like an idiot for quite a few months, like I did (over 9 months). By March of ’00, I had missed the final 25% of the blowoff top. A year later, I was sitting over 100% higher than my friends.

    The big question to me is the next few months — further rally before reality sets in? If so, I want to be in for a while, but I want to be out early for the 4-yr low to materialize. Just not absurdly early. And if a hyperinflationary scenario develops, I want to be all in, as cash will be worse.

  64. Movax2

    I haven’t looked into sales figures, but sales increasing is the wanted effect of inflationary policies. Unfortunately, this is often driven more from fear of holding cash than desire for goods. BTW I wasn’t being rhetorical, I do wonder what your answers are – do you really see a big improvement in the average American’s life over the past few years? You think a retail stat means good times ahead? Just curious.

  65. Dang

    Thank you EricH (and others).

    I know I missed the jump, but would like to catch a trend for a short time period if possible and not have my head cut off in the guillotine.

    To me, it looks like I could catch a wave up for a short time. But I don’t always see around the corners too well and have been spanked on more than one occasion.

    I am a bit confuse on how to interpret the SoS & BoW (from the WSJ). If a stock is on the top of the SoS list, can we expect a drop in that stock in the next day or so?

    Thank you very much!

  66. MrMiyagi

    I am a bit confuse on how to interpret the SoS & BoW (from the WSJ). If a stock is on the top of the SoS list, can we expect a drop in that stock in the next day or so?

    As Gary has noted before, SOS is mainly applicable to SPY ETF. It doesn’t mean that the price will drop but it may. It just means that there are less people buying at higher prices than lower prices intraday.

  67. St. Deluise

    there was one (1) huge sell in SPY that i think is probably accounting for the entire SoS number. it was around 12:22 this afternoon.

    either it was a hell of a test for demand (PASS!) or some sort of statement since people managing that type of dough usually sneak in and out.

  68. wmp

    Mr. M..

    Re: Steinbeck’s a perv: That made me laugh out loud, literally!

    A whole new meaning to the “Got Milk?” slogan aye? 🙂

  69. MrMiyagi

    Some milk mustache that would be!
    There are some other passages in TGOW and Of Mice and Men and even Cannery Row that lead me to that conclusion, it was after all the 1930’s.

  70. Danno

    What’s conversation like on the premium site? Doesn’t seem like too much effort being expended here. Don’t know about you, but I want to make some stinking money. I will even take $100 bills that rode a thousands miles strapped to a camel’s groin.

  71. EricH

    You can’t a house, but you can certainly eat more with less money used for housing. You think the retail numbers over the past 2 years are fudged?

  72. 86d4life

    you get the feeling this thing is going to take a break, say tomorrow, catch it`s breath for the weekend, and push higher next week? It would make a lot of sense to fill todays gap tomorrow. Ain`t gonna happen though, is it? Mr M, what do you think?

  73. John

    oh certainly fudged.
    I bought a house 15 years ago: My payment is till $1500/month, the value of the house can go up or down, my payment is the same, so once you buy your house, it no longer affect you purchasing power, except for property taxes which are minimal. So as long as you don’t buy during the mania, you’re ok.
    To include housing prices coming down in the inflation numbers is a joke … I’m sure no one bothered factoring housing prices during the mania in the inflation calculation … every reason to rig the numbers and hide the robbery

  74. 86d4life

    pretty impressive actually. Had to go back to about the first of the year to find a losing day like this. Even though it`s good for our accounts now, it almost feels kind of spooky.

  75. EricH

    What percentage of Americans actually own a home? If you purchase a house 15 years ago, my guess is you can sell your home and make a profit.

  76. oa92000

    William Wallace said…
    Took off the SPXU at a break of the head and shoulders neckline. 10% loss on the market short. “

    Do you long anything??

  77. 86d4life

    Brother, I know exactly what your feeling, I see it too. But…….

    Looking at those spy gaps, maybe a dollar bounce, that gld gap at(what is it 166-167). That would fit a lot of scenarios, bleed off a little excess pressure all the way around, and let this thing keep rolling in grand style.

    Plus you are kind of a glutton for punishment……

  78. ...at ease

    I would ask the guy for your money back who wrote the chart book and buy yourself a subscription to Gary’s premium site. I think you will rest a lot easier at night.

  79. james r


    If the dollar does break the three year low does this change your opinion on the four year low of the market?

    Maybe the four year low may not be so severe due to inflation. There are companies that do well in inflation.


  80. james r

    I think with the dollar falling fast and this move in gold “should” be the final parabolic run we have been waiting for before the start of the “D” wave.


  81. William Wallace

    Gold is looking real good in the futures, open was perfect and it’s trading at a nice grind, trading like it did out of the July bottom. Right now there is nothing but thin air above gold.

  82. Captain Morgan

    Hamvester, I agree Lemma’s post even beat out Danno’s posts below.

    Danno said…
    Updated thoughts on GLD. Any advice welcome as I have very little idea what I am doing and can use all the help I can get! lol (Actually, that’s not funny.)

    Then he asks:

    Danno said…
    What’s conversation like on the premium site? Doesn’t seem like too much effort being expended here. Don’t know about you, but I want to make some stinking money. I will even take $100 bills that rode a thousands miles strapped to a camel’s groin.

    October 27, 2011 12:20 PM

    My take, Danno, is this community is more than willing to help beginners like you, but if you expect to make some “stinking money”, how about paying your “stinking dues” and stop wasting our time with your many inane posts. The premium site is rich with content. If you were a sub, perhaps, you wouldn’t feel the urge to post incessantly.

  83. hamvestor

    JLemma, as an employment discrimination lawyer, I can’t tell you how many ignorant (and unlawful) comments are made in the workplace with the justification of “oh, I was just joking.” I know this is an investment blog, not a workplace, but nonetheless maybe you might want to think before you speak. jmho.

  84. High 5

    I began ignoring lemma and danno long ago. Haven’t the time for their and many others diarrhea of the mouth (digits). Now it is carrying over to the premium site but it’s easy enough to scroll through the emptiness of their posts.

  85. intelliblue2000

    Gary or others – if we are not in a D-wave, are we continuing a new daily cycle in the C-wave? Or is it considered an A-wave?

    Perhaps it is still too soon to tell?

  86. Vonda

    Thank you, Hamvestor, for speaking up/out and not letting the gender slander slide.

    Much appreciated,from one who identifies as a woman and whose portfolio was up nearly 8% today, thanks to Gary, aided by the frequently generous and brilliant offerings by persons on this blog whose gender I couldn’t give a hoot!

  87. james r

    So the reason why the D-wave was aborted was because Merkel and Co. persuaded the banks to take a 50% haircut and avoid a credit default event?

    Thoughts anyone????

  88. NJ

    Hi Gary:

    Stunning pic on the premium site! You sure have balls of steel! 🙂

    And of course, many thanks for the calls over the past couple of days!

    Enjoy the rest of your vacation!

  89. Danno

    Captain Morgan,
    I’ve been hanging out here for weeks and I have not seen you post much other than attacks on people. I think they have a word for that… TROLL.

  90. Danno

    james r,
    It isn’t over yet. The EU pulled out their big guns and shot their wad. When people realize that won’t be enough you will see even more panic than before. As to when, that is a bit harder to say. Weeks? Months? We’ll have to wait and see. It is a managed crisis so they can choose when to unleash the Kraken. If I had to guess I would say it will happen around the time the dollar finds its real bottom. That bottom is still coming and there will most likely still be a massive dollar rally.

  91. Danno

    The fact that you would claim I cannot ‘afford’ $20 a month when I never said any such thing illustrates what kind of person you are. Have a good life.

  92. Dan


    The only trolls around here are you and Joseph. No one else posts nonsense all day long and most other posters have been around here a lot longer than the both of you. The fact that the two of you can’t afford a $20/month subscription, even though you spend all your days here, speaks volumes about how successful your investments are and how valuable your posts are.

  93. Wav_ridah

    Looks like the EURUSD is backtesting the rising trendline it lost in Sept. Looks like a good time to short (A close above the trendline would be my stop). Dollar may find it DCL now. We’ll see.

  94. Shalom Bernanke

    Gee hamvestor, sounds like a noble occupation you have.

    When is the last time you helped a poor, disadvantaged black child get school vouchers to attend your nearest Yeshiva?

    Desegregation is great but must be evenly applied, and schools that teach intolerance for all others not like them should be a viable target for you in the future. Especially since we already have a black president, attorney general, etc. so the whole workplace discrimination thing is winding down. If anything, I’d say whites are discriminated against, especially if they’re straight and male.

  95. RA


    Question for you re miners:

    If we get into (hyper)inflationary mode and commodities besides gold such as oil spiral up, will that not affect the profitability of miners?

    What would your take be on how they would perform under such conditions?

  96. Shalom Bernanke


    Sure, oil price rises will put a dent in miner earnings, but I’d expect that to cause the metal to rise even further as less gets pulled out of the ground (temporarily, like maybe a quarter or two at most before metals prices adjust higher).

    Note the yellow arrow on the chart I posted above. The only thing I’m not exactly sure of is where we are in this Depression. Either ’08 was it for the stock market collapse and this fella is right about where we are, or we could still have another big low in 2012 consistent with Gary’s thoughts.

    Either way, I want to keep some and keep looking for selloffs to buy into. Fact is, I have more miners now than before I took the big hit, so when they’ve rallied I’ve done quite nicely. I’m sticking with this plan, just wondering if we get one last sale before there is no looking back?

  97. Shalom Bernanke


    I do not expect miners to collapse as hard even if we get another deflationary spiral. Yes, they’ll get bashed so size accordingly, but the buyers are there and waiting.

    Even as the general market worked lower from 1930-32 (after the 1929 “Crash, miners already had found their footing and started to gently rise. After that, off to the races.

  98. Shalom Bernanke

    Bonds have also competed with metals for safe-haven status, and although it’s too soon to call the absolute top in bonds, foreign CB’s are beginning to liquidate.

    In addition to less places to hide, metals being the only choice, our Fed will have no choice but to print and buy bonds that are being dumped.

    We could be on the verge of the best opportunity of my career, right after the internet bubble which treated me very well.

  99. Shalom Bernanke


    You don’t have to publish your real name on the premium site, if you wish to try it out. I don’t comment over there b/c Gary wanted us to talk here unless asking a pertinent, subscriber-only question.

  100. RA

    Thanks SB for your detailed answer 🙂 Much appreciated.

    In terms of etf’s I suspect the mining etfs could be more reliable than GLD or SLV given that there are questions about the acutual holdings of the metal etfs. That is another plus going for miners I think.

  101. Shalom Bernanke


    That is true. Also consider that metals can go sideways for long periods of time which still benefits miners even if GLD doesn’t move much.

    ABX (the old Homestake Mining) increased it’s dividend 25% yesterday. It was this type of thing that drove Homestake 500% higher in the Great Depression.

  102. hamvestor

    sb, I’m not going to engage you in a debate on the subject of bigotry, as that is a subject on which you are quite the accomplished practitioner.

    Oh — and just as an fyi, I’m a management-side employment lawyer, defending companies AGAINST discrimination claims, but am still as offended as the next person when I see an ignorant display of bias.

  103. Shalom Bernanke

    Copouts always resort to name calling and labels, but you answered my question already.

    I’m for desegregation, yet you label me bigot. And you who claim to get offended see no hypocrisy in keeping Yeshivas for Jewish kids only, but want others to believe you’re not racist.

    Figures, you’re an attorney, and if you’re any good at your profession, probably an accomplished liar as well. lol

    Go ahead and have the last word, then lets get back to trading. Just to show you I harbor no ill feelings, here’s some advice. Buy lots of miners and hold on tight.

  104. intelliblue2000

    SB – I have been reading your posts, it sounds like you buy individual miner instead of the ETF in the model portfolio.

    Do you like miners more than Gold/silver? I ask because I want to go a tad bit above what the model portfolio suggested, and I just want to get your perspective on where to place additional bets.

  105. Shalom Bernanke


    For this stage of the bull, I do prefer miners to metal. However, I also own metal via PHYS and physical. I don’t buy the GLD or SLV, but not because I think there is anything particularly wrong with them, just I think miners will be the place to be.

    Yes, I do buy individual names vs. the etf, but again it’s just preference. I’m not the best stock picker, so don’t have any edge in the names I’ve picked, some here are better at that than me (Alex, for one).

    The reason I’m buying individual names is I can get exactly what I want, including some majors, some juniors, some gold miners, and some silver producers. Most importantly, since I intend to keep most of them for the long haul, I do not want any ownership issues if markets experience extreme dislocations. If one owns the etf, that is what they own, not the individual names within. It might be necessary to sock these away for a few years until the storm blows over, and I want to know exactly what I own.

  106. riley

    S.B do you own AUY or GG? Does Argentina bother you at all? I’ve owned both since 2008 and was planning on adding, just a little wary. Thanks for holding strong and posting, hard to do in this environment.

    WW if read this do you have hard or soft stops on futures positions? I got in at 1721 as was on vacation. Thanks to you also.

  107. deshy

    Can anybody explain to me why $silver is down today while SLV is up 3%? Does this have to do with a premium/discount on the etf? Thx

  108. Shalom Bernanke


    Argentina has already blown over for the most part, as evidenced by GG and AUY today. It is disturbing, and I expect to hear lots more news like this over the years, but that cannot keep us out.

    I try to have companies with mines in many jurisdictions, but it’s not always possible with juniors. In the end, the reason governments attack miners is that is where the money is being made and they know it.

    Of all my positions, I bet I’ll lose a bundle on one or two, make 300% or one or two, and the rest will double. I can live with that, so don’t focus too much on the individual stories. Gov’t still need these companies to pull more metal out of the ground, and even in nationalizations, shareholders are typically rewarded even if not as much as they deserve after the theft.

  109. Dang

    SB said:
    “Figures, you’re an attorney, and if you’re any good at your profession, probably an accomplished liar as well. lol”


  110. riley

    You are so right Gary, Pic was awesome. Do you ever have time to climb mountains or do you stick to vertical, no hand hold rock walls? Impressed!

  111. Shalom Bernanke

    Today is looking like a perfect day to take Gary’s advice and turn of the ‘puter, and it’ll make for a long weekend. I’m not buying more into this runup, and I definitely have no interest in booking profits.

    I hope others are able to resist the urge to sidestep a pullback. It will be too difficult to buy back what was sold, IMO. I’ll check back later. 🙂

  112. Captain Morgan

    oa92000 said…
    jim rogers long dollar…. so he is wrong on this one

    The euro (largest component of US dollar index)has only shown relative strength against the USD because of recent progress with the Greek situation. I think Rogers’ call is right that the USD may be the least weak of the major currencies over in the timeframe of his trade (which we don’t know). So, I wouldn’t bet against him, arguably the best commodity investor of all time. My 2 cents.

  113. intelliblue2000

    Captain Morgan – Yes, I remember watching a clip on Bloomberg of him. He said he is long term bearish on USD, but short term bullish. He bought the USD back in May, he even challenged the interviewer to look up the price he bought it in. You are right, we don’t know the time frame of his trade so we don’t even know if he has already exited.

  114. Captain Morgan


    If Rogers was smart enough to buy the USD near the low in early May, my guess is he was also smart enough to sell near the recent top.

    However, if he is still in the long USD trade, he could still be profitable today and approaching support to go higher.

  115. Captain Morgan

    To help take some of the noise out of chart watching and to stay with the trend useful for swing trading, I mentioned in an earlier post that I like the TOS drawing tool called Regression Channel. What I also like to use is an indicator called TTM_LRC (which I may have already mentioned). I use a 30 min timeframe and the 38 bar default lookback period. Using this indicator today, I see both /GC and /SI in a downtrend, so I’m keeping some powder dry to add more after this downtrend flattens out and starts rising. I find these technical tools helpful in promoting good trade psychology and contolling emotions. FWIW.

  116. intelliblue2000

    Capital Morgan – I am going to write down the indicators you mention and look it up later. Anything that helps with controller our emotions in trading, I am willing to learn.

  117. RJ

    Captain Morgan,

    Did the indicator break out with the gold move to 1744? It was stuck all morning between 1736 and 1741. I couldn’t find similar indicators on stock charts.

  118. intelliblue2000

    capital morgan – I can’t find something like that at Interactive Broker’s charting tool, maybe I am just unfamiliar with it.

    When you see the GC or SI going up again, can you post here? I have dry powder on the side, waiting also.

  119. Captain Morgan


    The TTM_LRC is an adaptive 2 sd regression trend that works like a moving average of the last 38 bars.

    On my 30 min bars and 38 bar lookback period, the downtrend was still in place when /GC hit a high of 1747.5 at 8:00 AM PDT. It did not break out and this was a correct call since /GC dropped back down to 1735.7 by 8:30. If you want to trade small breakouts, you can adjust your timeframe and lookback to shorter timeframes. It’s a proprietary indicator from the TradeTheMarket guys and licensed or given to TOS.

  120. Captain Morgan

    Intelliblue 2000,

    I try to post things our community may find useful, but tend to trade longer term and have a life away from my monitor. So, please don’t count on me to catch and post breakouts.

    Back in 1Q’11 through April, I was able to hold long silver futures positions for 2-4 weeks. Oh for those days again ;-).

    You might try going long (using a stop with which you’re comfortable) each time /GC breaks above the high of some time range. You could use the price range set within the first 6o mins of each day, or a longer time from,e.g. 38 bars, etc.

    Good luck to you.

  121. ver

    Has anyone here tracked the Gold VIX (GVZ) and/or could share any insights on how to think about it’s movement relative to gold?

    I’m contemplating buying DITM GLD options in place of the shares I would have purchased–to control risk, *not* lever up–but want to make sure I don’t get killed by vega dropping.

    On one hand GVZ looks like it’s at highs relative to the past few years, but on the other hand it’s at lows relative to the most recent highs, which we’re heading towards this cycle.

    Any thoughts are much appreciated.

  122. wolf33

    emr canadian—after first post left some time—more traded—i bot 50,00 more. highst price 12 cents. just want everything upfront. as of now full. it can still go to 0. few of these ever work out—just a dream. but i am old so grand kids money lost if go to 0

  123. MarkMarin

    For anyone who missed the gold move this week, there is an opportunity to buy GTU (Central Gold Trust) after it announced it is floating 1M units 5% below yesterday’s close. Yesterday, the premium was over 11%. Should be closer to 6% today. Do your own due-diligence…..

  124. wolf33

    emr will keep up to date—stock moved from my low purchase price of .115 highh priced paid i see was .125—trading .165—not so sure would chase—0 it could go.

  125. St. Deluise

    USTs popular today amidst an otherwise snoozefest. /zn looks like an IT bottom could be in.

    now that CDS positions have been effectively marginalized one might expect to see these traders begin to just straight-out short EU debt. may drive the next leg up in US debt, which i believe might be turn out to be its last.

    holding small upro short and no gold into the weekend.

  126. oa92000

    St. Deluise said…
    holding small upro short and no gold into the weekend.”

    MACD divergence , 30 min chart, time to short SPY again..

  127. Russell

    Ever since the Sunday Night Massacre with silver last Spring, it makes me nervous to hold PMs over a weekend. I keep telling myself that it’s early in the cycle. I guess it nice to hear reassuring posts from Gary and the long term blog veterans.

  128. Captain Morgan

    Both /GC and /SI made marginal new highs today (for the month), but look like they will form dojis on the daily candle through 1 PM PDT. So, it wouldn’t take much of a down move on Monday to form a daily swing high. I’m flat over the weekend.

  129. Shalom Bernanke

    Ahhh, just one more trading day in October, Halloween. It’s been a wild ride over here the last 2 months.

    Have a good weekend everybody, and don’t even think of selling anything. 🙂

  130. wolf33

    emr canadian add 15000 at .19—in my trading plan for a very risky stock that could go to 0. will post avg price when get it. likely 12 cents

  131. wolf33

    emr canadian add 15000 at .19—in my trading plan for a very risky stock that could go to 0. will post avg price when get it. likely 12 cents

  132. ...at ease

    You are not alone on your feelings about weekend holds. Hard to believe we are back to buy and hold. Really. Pinch me. Sure hope its a treat and not a trick. 🙂

  133. Danno

    Account is up +27% in 21 trading days. Wasn’t easy for me but very happy.

    Thanks to all here (especially Gary) for the advice, tips and constructive criticism. I’m not sure I would have done that well had I not been challenged to think harder.

    Have a great weekend.

  134. Leilani

    Yesterday, I couldn’t get the correct portfolio balance in Fidelity.com. A problem with the feeds. Again today! The quotes at close are correct but the page that shows my positions and where it closed today percentage wise is incorrect. Again I can’t get the correct total portfolio balance unless I use my handy calculator.

    On Etrade, they are having problems too. NUGT they are quoting the correct closed price but the percentage change shows -12.53% when it is actually +4.80%.

    This is a bit frustrating! What is going on?

  135. William Wallace


    My stop is a close below the 75sma. If you take a look at a Gold daily chart with the 200, 150, 100, 75, and 10sma’s you can clearly see the resistance and support by the 10 and 75 that created gold’s recent consolidation before dropping to the DCL, and that throughout this entire C-wave gold’s intermediate cycles bottomed on the 150 except for the July bottom which bottomed early, but again on a SMA, the 100. Cycle bottoms obviously have obeyed moving averages, this is what has enabled me to buy near exact bottoms. When gold was recently approaching the 200 I was anticipating that buyers would pour in slightly ahead of the 200 and watched closely the time & sales, a reversal candle and volume spike to spot the 1535 bottom, which I noted on the blog in real time. As I noted just recently I went short at a break of the 10sma to the downside, I took that short off and went long at a bounce off the 150sma, which turned out to be the DCL. I then took that long off at the 75sma temporarily to see if it would reverse gold, until I went long again around 1697. So being that cycle bottoms are spawned off of SMA’s, it enables me to get in before Gary actually calls the bottom. The only time I didn’t get in early was in July because I was looking for a bottom at the 150 like the previous bottoms. I like using the SMA’s that act as major support and resistance and create cycle bottoms as my stops, instead of the price at which the low occurs because as the move advances the moving average rises. So my stop trails basically with enough cushion. But like cycles moving averages are useless for spotting tops.

  136. Dave

    How are people in restricted trading accounts (401k) trading on Gary’s moves? I can get into individual stocks and ETFs, but my problem is the three day restriction based on selling stocks with unsettled cash proceeds. This is killing me. I had 50% in the dollar, then when Gary bailed and went into gdx etc., I had to let that chunk sit there for three days while the funds settled so I didn’t risk a good faith violation. Any way around this? Let me guess – margin account.

  137. Haggerty


    Unfortunately can’t go margin in 401k’s. Just so you know you could have jumped in to GDX with those unsettled funds but you would have not been able to sell the GDX until the funds from the sale settled from your sale of UUP. So you would have been locked into GDX for three days.

  138. riley

    Thanks WW. Noted most of your post just unsure when you would bail if wrong. You’re good guy to take time to explain. Have good weekend.

  139. ...at ease

    Trading in your IRA/401ks, with the 3 day restriction to settle funds is a big problem with trading in and out if you are not using a margin account. So two solutions, keep some funds aside at all times for those type of trades. And the only other workaround I have found is learning to trade with options (very carefully) as you don’t need the 3 day clearing. Sell today funds ready tomorrow to trade again.
    If you are a sub, Gary gives his directions although he doesn’t recommend options unless you are experienced trader. So this is where I learned from an inexpensive book: Option Trading in Your Spare Time: A Guide to Financial Independence for Women [Paperback]
    Wendy Kirkland (Author), Virginia McCullough (Author). $12.50 on Amazon. We only need basic CALLS (long) PUTS (Short) to make money. Nothing fancier than that needed to follow here and this will give you a thorough understanding of eveything you need to know.

  140. ...at ease

    You are correct, however Gary has moved so fast at times in and out of funds that I have had account violations making big moves and that put 90 day restrictions on my accounts.
    So one has to be very careful on the swing trades. It is better to learn to manage your capital and not worry about having every last dollar invested. Reserve capital helps in those situations as it is always working just in a different sense, as available funds until the last trade settles which replenishes your working capital again. Trading with options, you will always have reserve capital as you are not investing everything into your trades just the portion of funds to cover the contracts for the same amount of stock/etf you wanted to purchase.

  141. Slumdog

    2nd advance in gold yesterday with followthrough mezzanine today.

    We will probably see one more large move up, a blow off move with a breakaway gap. That’s coming. Then I’ll exit and wait for the retracement before re entering when there’s clarity of a shortly occurring move.

  142. ...at ease

    Gary, not sure what “dipshit” was referring too, as his posts are deleted now.
    I was just going over my accounts since I started my investment/trading with SMTP. Once I learned to adapt your cycle methods trading in IRA and Roth accounts without margin and following your entries and exits all 3 of my accounts have doubled in value since March of this year. Now don’t even ask me what the heck I was doing before I found your site. LOL It was pitiful.

  143. Gary

    DS is just another foul mouthed troll who has no idea what he’s talking about.

    Obviously he’s not a subscriber or he would realize how ridiculous his statements were.

  144. intelliblue2000

    Gary or others – in a hyperinflation environment, people don’t trust fiat currencies. Is it advisable to own some actual gold bullion or gold coins? Should we start accumulating…

  145. intelliblue2000

    At East – I totally hear you about the retirement account. I have a trading account (with margin) and some IRAs and 401K. I am learning to adjust the position sizes so I will always have funds available in case Gary jumps in and out of trades.

    And I also don’t want to think about what I was doing before I found SMTP in July. I was kind of lost.

  146. catbird

    On why Bernanke may very well be quietly destroying the dollar with stealth QE3:

    To guarantee he keeps his job. That is, he’s betting that an elevated stock market will help Barry win reelection next year. While a Republicrat prez might not reappoint him, he’s got to figure B.O. certainly will.

  147. Elaine

    I trade Gary’s ETF calls in my IRAs at both Schawb and Wells Fargo. I don’t have the three day restrictions you all seem to mention.

  148. catbird

    Re: the possibility of Bernanke currently running stealth QE3–

    Lou Dobbs was on O’Reilly tonight talking about how the recent rise in stocks is a sign of a soon-to-improve economy. What a joke. Fox and PMSNBC both do their darnedest to keep our eyes off the ball.

    Anyway, I really think Bernanke’s will to avoid the embarrassment of losing his job (by keeping stocks levitated and thus Barry in office) overrides whatever worry he may have about destroying the dollar.

  149. Slumdog

    Gary, DG on the premium site thinks there will be an immediate drop in I think S&P and gold.

    You say we have more time.
    I think within 3 to 4 trading days max, we’ll see a meaningful…50 pt…retracement in gold to 1690 or so.

    What repeatest thou?

  150. Danno

    Speaking short term, I’m seeing that any pullback in PMs here could be brief and fairly shallow. There is no low risk shorting opportunity in PMs here IMO. I would judge any softness in gold to be the result of a fake rally attempt by the dollar. Any near term dollar rally is likely to be weak and/or short because the dollar appears to have more work to do on the downside.

    USD Head & Shoulders

    Some indicators people use to say that gold is ‘overbought’ (like the Stochastic) can roll over into oversold within a week while price merely chops sideways or, at worst, slumps a bit.

    $BPGDM Gold Miners Bullish % Index has only reached 51.72

  151. Gary

    S&P maybe, gold I wouldn’t count on it. I think it’s more likely gold will consolidate for a few days before another spurt higher.

  152. William Wallace


    Ignore the dirtbags.

    On another note, I was watching on a show called super human an Indian rock climber, he learned how to climb from living with macaque monkeys. No ropes, he climbed this 200ft rock wall that only these monkeys are able to climb. They did some scientic tests on him and they showed that being his movements are like the monkey he uses little energy, and all his strength is directed to his finger tips. He flipped upside down, a one handed stand while on the side of a rock face to get to where he couldn’t reach standing normal… It was amazing, you have to see it. Just don’t go off to live with monkeys when inflation starts to get hyper!!

  153. intelliblue2000

    At Ease – I checked with the company’s retirement fund company (Mass Mutual), we don’t have other investment choices other than those 15 or so stock, bonds and one REIT funds. It is very annoying, since I don’t plan to quit (so can’t roll it over to an IRA) and the account will likely grow with yearly contribution. Yet we have to choose from all the puky funds they have.

    Right now everything is in cash, I am going to wait till Gary calls the 4-year cycle low in stocks, and just get into those stock index fund. I don’t think those other mutual funds are performing any better than a QQQ or S&P funds.

    Maybe it is because our company is only about 800 people, not a big client, so they just ignore us.

  154. wmp


    I tend to agree that if the stock market is rising before the election that Obama will be re-elected. Too many people equate an improving stockmarket with an improving economy..especially those who have a job.

    The question I have about Ben B cratering the dollar to insure an Obama re-election is timing…we’ve got another year before the election and it seems to me that if this is manipulation, it’s a bit pre-mature. Wouldn’t he have let the market slide well into the new year then pulled it up by devaluing the dollar closer to the election?

    We’ve all speculated about Q3 or any derivitive thereof but why NOW?

  155. Mean Guy

    I read many investing blogs but subscribe to only this one. A common thread on all of them is great disdain for Ben Bernanke. What else can he do?
    He is like a doctor with a cancer patient, he can let them die or try to do everything in his power to extend his life. It is his job. That is what he is doing. He is not going to let this go down this how the system is set up.

    Political leaders are just the voice of the American people. Most Americans want the services the government provides. It amazing how people see the government at every level as independent of the people, when in fact they are us.

  156. Danno

    You’re only option is to ask your accounting department (or 401K directors) if they would grant you an exception and move your 401k to a ‘Self Directed IRA’. What this means is that your entire 401k balance, save maybe some company match type funds, would be moved into an IRA at a broker (hopefully a broker of your choice). Then you can trade any way you please. This can be done and it has been done. The only obstacle is your accounting department’s reluctance to do the necessary paperwork and your 401k director’s reluctance to sign that paperwork. Of course you should expect whatever manages your 401k account (typically a company outside of your company). to argue against such an exception Their reasons are selfish of course. Some of those companies receive remuneration based on the total dollars they manage. You may need to educate your 401k director about that possibility that the management company may balk because of greed. Of course, you have to present your case in a way that makes you appear to be highly capable of managing your own finances because another reason company’s are reluctant to make exceptions is simply to protect their employees from doing something self destructive. Good luck.

  157. Haggerty


    another idea is to simply not contribute to the 401k system. I, when I am working, which is rare these days only put in 1% in to these funds because I am forced to do so through my employer. If you have the discipline to put money away for yourself you don’t need these retirement vehicles IMO. Plus if you are in a Jam, and need money you won’t be penalized for taking your own money.

  158. Haggerty

    I just cracked my first beer. Sam Adams Octoberfest, Having surgery on Monday so I’m going to make it a point to enjoy the weekend. Stay thirsty my friends!

  159. Le Fou

    Cheers Haggerty!

    Here’s one for a successful surgery, and one for your complete recovery, and one for a long and happy life!

    God bless you,
    Le Fou

  160. Gary

    Usually about the time one becomes convinced this time is different one finds out it’s not.

    A D-wave is a severe profit taking event triggered by a parabolic rise and usually accompanied by a strong rally in the dollar.

    If gold rallies hard enough and the dollar bounces strongly enough at the next intermediate bottom we could still experience a true D-wave decline.

    We almost certainly have to experience one before the bubble phase can occur.

  161. basil

    Best joke of the day:

    ‘The model portfolio is outperforming virtually every hedge fund in the world.’

    What are you smoking?…

    Most charming name calling:

    ‘foul mouthed trolls’

    That’s your way of complaining about the language other people use?…

    And finally:

    ‘I see where DS tucked his tail and ran after being confronted with the facts.’

    Try with not deleting his posts…

  162. Danno

    You never know what someone might be dealing with; death of a loved one, job loss, cheating spouse, terminal illness. I would just quietly remove abusive posts. Lots of people in pain out there.

  163. intelliblue2000

    Haggerty – good luck to your surgery! On 401K, I have tried contributing less and I paid up through my nose in taxes. [Rant alert] we W-2 wage earners bear the brunt of the tax burden.

  164. ...at ease

    You are right, we don’t know what people are going through unless they tell us. But to come on a blog and just berate folks. They have issues beyond the help we can offer here. And it takes people many times to hear others tell them they need help before they look at themselves as their own problem instead of blaming others for their unhappiness or misery. Everyone just has a different tactic to put the message across to them to go get some help.

  165. ...at ease

    Don’t get me started on how the govt controls our investments. Do you by chance also make maximum contributions to a Traditional IRA or ROTH also? If you are below a certain income level the Roth is a great tool and traditional can be a tax relief, below a certain income level. If nothing else contribute to those upfront and max out, so you have longer to trade those funds with gold/miners. My money goes in Jan 2nd, so I can get those funds working as fast as possible.

  166. intelliblue2000

    At ease – we can’t contribute to the Roth IRA due to some artificial income limit (barf). So… sigh.. my best choice is to wait for Gary to call the bottom of the 4- year cycle in stocks and put it all in some index fund.

    It is very annoying, for most working mules like us, we contribute mostly to the 401K, and we have so few investment choices. Most companies are trying to skim on 401K, so they don’t have good banks handling our funds. Luckily I have a trading account that I can follow Gary along.

    Blah, I don’t understand why we can’t manage our own damn 401K.

  167. Bill

    Chartists, just noticed that the $1750 level in spot $GOLD is pretty important. That’s where we stopped on Friday. Looking back, that also was a support/resistance level the week of Aug 8, and the week of Aug 22 as well. We may blast though here, who knows, but it’s possible we have a small pullback here, then blast though?

  168. Bill

    Uh, another separate but related comment on gold. Though cycles magic call for higher prices, from just a chart perspective, it’s possible that the whole move from the Sept 26th low till Friday was a big B wave up, of an ABC correction, with the final C leg down due next.

    If this is/was a B wave, we did correct a 50% (plus a bit), using the Gann/Fib tool.

    I’m not saying any of this is likely, as again the cycles are apparently against it, but from a chart perspective, it’s possible.

    Of course anything’s possible, so my babble here isn’t adding much to the heap. 😉

  169. Bill

    But all that aside, in my book this is a breakout, so I’m looking to cost average in, w/a floor at the 50d EMA. For what it’s worth.

    Done now. 😉

  170. Bill

    Sorry for the delay, I was asleep, but am up now.

    I am not currently a subscriber. I was 2 different times, but I just couldn’t see the cycles thing working. I call it magic, but I mean no disrespect; I just don’t get it yet. That said, I’m thinking to subscribe again, not because of cycles, but because Gary’s a great trader. I am slooow to come around. 😉

    Yes, the ABC stuff is different than Gary’s ABCD. ABC comes from EW (Elliott Wave), and has to do with how corrections play out. I understand and respect EW (same as cycles), but I don’t see it happening with enough precision for my trading needs. Again, no disrespect, because I do see that it works for many if not most of you all.

    My posts from last night were just meant to show that we are currently at horiz resistance, and that if one combines that with Gannn’s 50% and EW’s ABC logic, that we could see a corrective C wave down here. Again, I don’t subscribe to EW, I just follow price, but I thought I’d throw it out here on this public blog is all. Didn’t mean any disruption, just providing a different perspective is all.

  171. Bill

    Maybe someone can help me here on cycles. 😉

    On the daily chart, was the last cycle low in gold on Sept 26th? And this was confirmed (my words) last Monday on Oct 24th?

    So therein lies the problem with my brain, is that I see cycles as rear view mirror stuff rather than roadbumps ahead. I’m obviously missing something important here, and I’d appreciate any help. I’ve read all Gary’s cycle stuff and studied the charts. I see waves, but w/irregular periods. Maybe me being a math/physics guy has me taking this too literally or something. Cycles I understand are seasons, tides, ice ages, etc. Pretty regular stuff. Variations of less than 2%.

    Thank you!

  172. Bill

    A bit more here, as I think about myself as a trader and why I’m still not relying on cycles …

    Here’s the latest pic of cycles from an earlier public blog post:


    Right away I was bothered by the fact that the periods are not regular – 13w, 30w, 25w, and so on. Then at 13w again. 1/2 of 30w is 15w, so we have about 100% variation here. 100%! That’s one of my hangups.

    Another hangup I have is that just when I think I understood where things were going, they changed, and because I developed an OPINION about where the markets should go, I had a VERY hard time changing my opinion, and missed out.

    I am currently missing out on gold’s rise because I listen to TOO MANY opinions. If I shut everthing out, and just watched price, I’d be a better trader. Hence my huge worry about relying on Gary – he’s been right so far, but someday he may not be – so I am currently trying to learn from Gary and you all, but also trying to protect my own mind so that when I trade my money, it’s with conviction that I feel, rather than on what someone else says/thinks. Not sure if I’m being clear here. Following others usually leads me off a cliff, experience tells me. If I did believe in cycles even 1/2 as much as Gary does, then yes I’d subscribe as the BULK of what he says/writes is DEAD ON with what I see and think.

  173. Bill

    In short, the variation in cycles makes me think that it’s a “guideline” but not a RULE.

    When trading money, I consider it as in chess: WAR. Take, or be taken. So guidelines don’t work for me; rules mean survival.

    My pea brain is empty now.

  174. hamvestor

    Bill, you said “Hence my huge worry about relying on Gary – he’s been right so far, but someday he may not be…”

    Based on that approach, you’d never be invested, but rather always paralyzed with fear. Gary’s cycle work, while elusive to me at times, seems to be working nicely overall, so why not go with it until it is clearly not working anymore (if indeed such a day ever comes…)?

  175. Bill

    hamvestor, “frozen”, exactly. And yes I’m seriously thinking to resubscribe. But since I missed the breakout, I’m not sure what he’d say about those un/underinvested. Probably will subscribe though, as I’m still a beginner. Thanks for your comments.

  176. JEFFtheFLEA

    he describes a entry for latecomers in the weekend report. other than the silver debacle, he has little risk and his risk is managed even more now with the modle portfoilio.

  177. Bill

    Flea, you crack me up. You leave me no choice, man. It’s not like I have a Plan B here or anything. Thanks for letting me know that he has a plan for latecomers – THAT alone is worth knowing, I agree.

    Gary, do you still have that entry level price for like a few days, or just go monthly?

  178. Frodo2122

    Bill Black @ #occupywallstreet on Arresting Banksters…3 min 54 sec

    Bank of America Death Rattle…6 min 50 sec.

    “Black was a central figure in exposing Congressional corruption during the Savings and Loan Crisis.
    He took the notes during the Keating Five meeting that were later published in the press, and brought
    the event to national attention and a congressional investigation.”

  179. Frank

    Greetings from Japan. JPY is down 4.5% vs. dollar after intervention and gold is down nearly 2%. Interesting to see what happens in 9 hours.

    The Japanese intervention was announced at 10:25 JST.

    I think this should be temporary and a buying opportunity in the PM sector.

  180. Slumdog

    IMO, this time it will not be like in the 80’s where the western nations could bully the gold market.

    I expect that one of the times some gov’t or group like the IMF moves against gold, the public will see through the effort, and the fiats will start collapsing as theywe will know this is just a game, and the public won’t run scared.

    Frankly, who cares what Japan does in terms of supporting the USD. This is a short term fix; it can sting, this time, but if one is rational, this is a fruitless effort on their part. There will be a fiat inflation, a loss of value. It’s just a matter of when the public will believe it.

  181. Frank

    Currency intervention is indeed fruitless historically but if you make a full commitment (and have enough FX reserves; Japan does) and are willing to print endlessly then a central bank can intervene successfully.

    I think the Japanese have observed the successful intervention by the SNB. The comment by Azumi “whatever it takes” is clear and in line with what the SNB did, but the question is whether they will follow through.

  182. Bill

    Frank, do you trade on the NY market, using Gary’s signals? If so, then you’re up like me at 3 or 4 am, done by 5? And this works OK for you? Thanks.

    – Bill in Fuchu-shi

  183. NJ

    Hi everyone:

    Needed all your inputs on an off topic subject.

    MF Global, a brokerage house, went under since Jon Corzine wanted to use the firms capital to bet.

    Now, how likely is it that TD Ameritrade, Interactive Brokers, Options Express etc. go the MF Global route?

    What are the warning signs we need to look out for to know in advance that our brokerage may be going under?

    And what happens to MF Global customers? Is all their cash + stocks investment insured by SIPC / FDIC?

    Thank you very much and Happy Halloween!

    Gold is sure delivering a big scare here premarket – hopefully temporary and not the dreaded D-wave!

  184. Bill

    Also, Frank, if you don’t mind, when you buy gold, do you take physical here in Japan, or do you use something like CEF, PHYS, or GTU? Or are you fine w/GLD, IAU, etc.? Thanks.

  185. Slumdog

    Each intervention brings tied to it the full faith and credit of the intervenor(s).the question is whether the investing public today is so hardwired that the samstrategy to buffalo them will ork yet again. in the moment, yes. over what the plan initiator needs?

  186. Bill

    The Bank of Japan intervened twice earlier this year, w/the net null effects Frank spoke of. But, it did have severe short term impact.

    See mid March, and early Aug on the daily chart.

    1st correction lasted 3 weeks; the 2nd only 1 week.

    Both times spot gold did NOT fall.

    Do I’m not sure the JPY intervention is directly related to gold this time either. Timing would strongly suggest so, but if now, why not earlier. I’m no FX expert, but chart wise, I see a non correlation.

    That means (to me) that gold may be going down for a different reason.

    As long as spot gold stays above $1700 it’s a buy in my book.

    I see this in chess all the time, making 2 moves that seem related but are not. Assumptions can get one killed.

  187. Aaron

    NJ, client money in futures have NEVER been lost despite several firms going down in the 80s, and they will make sure that never happens. Losing faith in futures would destroy the governments ability to manipulate currency and commodities when needed. It is safe…for now.

  188. Haggerty

    Looking at the charts before I head in this morning and 1680 looks like support for Gold, I hope it takes a few days to get there and not happen all in one day. I’d like to start seeing some normalcy here.

    Le Fou, Driver, Thanks for the well wishes

  189. sophia

    Hi Gary,

    I am visting your country, in New Hampshire sice Saturday..boy, that snow is something!
    Visiting the grandparents, very nice indeed…
    Let’s hope that the markets retrace a bit …

  190. Aaron

    Personally, I think the USD will surprise us all… to the upside. That break down in the currency was pure manipulation by the Euro, even Gary admits that manipulations can last for short periods of time. How gold will react though, is a toughy… although an explosion to the upside can probably be ruled out in the immediate future.

  191. Neo

    Poly´s stretched daily cycle low at 08th November, brought a few days ago, maybe a possible action. Any thoughts ?

    If Dx makes a cycle low today and tomorrow, can we have a turn back in metals and retest the lows ?

  192. St. Deluise

    exited my upro short earlier profitably, but think the BoJ gave me a gift there. think i’m done shorting stocks for a while.

    significant buy divergence in gold around the euro open.

  193. ...at ease

    I believe WW is in his thirties with a lovely wife and two sons. Yes, he has a strong zest for life with a deep faith in our Lord. 86 and all, send your prayers his way for him and his family.

  194. 86d4life

    He`s 36 and has recently been trying to convert this `heathen` to a better way. Maybe we`ll agree to be friends nonetheless. But, At Ease, I think I beat you to it 🙂

  195. trond56

    Alex, one of the 2 miners I recommended to you last tuesday, MGN, rose 30% on friday and at the moment today 10% more, altogether +50% on enormous volume. The reason is a recommendation from the Nia, National Inflation assosiation. It will therefor retrace bit down soon so don’t buy now. It is a bit pump and dump, all the pensioneers subscribing to it telephoning their brokers to put out market order (The other one, TLR, rallied 10% friday).

  196. Stoker

    Dear WW,

    I have never directly commented on any of your posts but I really appreciate them. Just wanted to say I admire your courage, and wish you a speedy recovery.

  197. Jayhawk

    Didn’t WW have other major health challenges? I wonder if this heart attack was somewhat related to these other issues. Wow…36 years old, life is very precious, I hope he makes it through OK.

  198. ...at ease

    JayHawk, I believe he has had a heart attack before. As he joked about using up a lot of lives. He lost a leg in a motorcycle accident. He was scheduled for surgery on that leg in December. He’s a fighter, so hopefully will be back with us soon. He’s a good soul.

  199. JEFFtheFLEA

    one of my brokers uses MF global,
    i can still trade and my money is segrigated and cant be lost.
    my other broker that is not useing MF Global said that sounds corret

  200. ckpc

    at ease,
    Thank you for letting us know about WW. He provides such good humor and guidance on this thread. This is distressing news and I join everyone else in sending love and healing prayer his way.

  201. NJ

    Get Well Soon WW!


    Thanks for your reply! So while futures accounts are safe, what about our cash and money in ETF’s? No threat to them as well correct if brokerage houses go the MF Global route? (Hopefully never)


  202. Le Fou

    at ease,

    If you’re in contact with WW, please let him know of our deep concern for him and for his family.

    I will be praying for him to have a complete recovery.

    Le Fou

  203. ALEX

    Hey all

    I too am in NH – had a snowstorm and no power (welcome to NH Sophia (this is NOT normal !!)

    wanted to wish WW a speedy and thorough recovery

    will be gone the rest of the day, still no power here-I am at Starbucks for WiFi….this light volume pullback looks great so far ( I own Miners and some energy like AXAS LDK HERO -ETC)

    TROND-I saw that last week ,I also own SWC and it did well too.

    best wishes all

    p.s. This tablet has auto spellchecker and often changes my ticker symbols to names,and names to something else too… ignore misspelled items

  204. Vonda

    Terrible news about WW. So sorry to hear it (but thanks for letting us know, At Ease.)

    Yes, please pass along all the love to WW and his fam from all us crazies on the board! And please keep us posted . . .

  205. Strat81

    Looks like the dollar just swung a massive monkey wrench into Gary’s outlook. Swing low on the dollar which took out some key resistance levels and a swing high on Gold which has yet to take out any key support areas. So which one is telling the truth or are we going to get another Dollar/Gold positive correlation rally again?

  206. Neo

    To soon for this daly cycle or, as i said earlier, maybe we are in the stretched daily cycle Poly talked before Gold breakout 1697$.

    May we had a headfake ?

  207. Bill

    I think Gary once said that breakouts don’t always work, or sommething to that effect.

    As long as spot gold remains above $1700 the breakout is valid I think.

    WW: a speedy and fully recovery mate!

  208. Frank

    Bill, I don’t follow Gary’s recommendations. I use him as a barometer and do my own thing, which focuses on company specific investments in gold miners.

    I am more of a night owl so try to stay up as late as possible. This will be more difficult with the end of DLS next week. I also spend about 70% in Japan, 25% in Europe, 5% in the US.

    I use US and European brokers.

    Kind regards from Shibuya-ku.

    p.s. The March intervention was short term successful pushing the yen to 84, but the most recent one wilted within days. Let’s see what happens here. Will they defend 78? That’s a historically strong “line in the sand” just like 1.20 for EUR/CHF.

  209. Bill

    Thanks much Frank, and good trading.

    Flea, I went out on a long bike ride yesterday (100 mi – in the mountains). Then had 2 beers and passed out. Wife is pissed. But, the sun is out again, and the fall colors and the mountains call me again, so off I go again! Thanks for the reminder.

    Sure hope WW recovers soon. He is a wild one. Full of life.

    I think Gary’s great, and will probably become a member soon.

  210. diana

    Frank – are you checking your radiation levels there in Japan?

    WW – Take good care of yourself and don’t worry about the markets for now. There’s always another opportunity!

  211. trond56

    WW, best wishes! I’ve learned a lot from your posts, like today gold two times struck the 200 period ma on the 5 minutes and then reversed -one of your themes.

    Yes, wished I owned SWC already. Btw it’s on Doc’s backburner list. In fact many shares suddently popped on Friday and Thursday. Silver-Bear for instace up 45%. (And Gmo etc). When these large pops start to appear and maybe spread, in the past that has often indicated an impending upturn in commodities.

  212. William Wallace

    I am overwhelmed and amazed by all the prayers and well wishes from everyone, I always said this blog was a special place. I’m in tears in my comfy hospital bed, think I’m getting one for my bedroom!

    I won’t die until the gold bull is dead, then I can rest in peace…so on with it gold I don’t have all day!

    Thank you my friends 🙂

  213. trond56

    Good news! -The gold bull can sometimes be a potent medicine and a good healer 🙂

    Doc is bullish on palladium in case inflation picks up, hence the Stillwater.

  214. ...at ease

    Your heart is too big to keep you down. How did I know you would be back as soon as you could get past the technicians and nurses. We shall have to rename you Braveheart rather than William Wallace. Good to hear from you!

  215. Felipe

    I like this blog very much but this is my first time writing and only to send my best wishes to WW, I hope a fast and good recovery for you.

    Force from Chile

  216. James


    I echo what trond said about how much I’ve learned from you and really enjoy reading your comments and incites on here 2nd only to Gary himself. Get well soon! Our thoughts and prayers are with you Braveheart!

  217. ver

    Atta boy WW! Awesome to see they weren’t able to keep the interwebs away from your reach 🙂

    Do take the time to rest up. We (and the gold bull) will be here when you’re back.

  218. Elaine


    Glad to hear you are alright. My husband has had two heart attacks and he’s going strong. We had three kids AFTER his first one!

    Make sure you absolutely take your vytorin, zocor, or what ever they proscribe. It really makes a difference.

    Hang in there.

  219. ckpc

    Braveheart. Yes indeed. That name will stick from now on.

    Do you see the response you inspire with just a word from you!
    (And from a hospital bed, no less)

    That’s why we luv ya.

    Get well real soon. The blog is just not the same without you.

  220. andybuji

    WW – add my well wishes to the pile. Thank you for welcoming me to the blog after my first post, and for living large. But seeing as you’re prone to heart attacks, and moving multiple gold futures, don’t forget the stops and limit orders!

  221. Captain Morgan


    Good to hear from you after your health challenge. Our thoughts and prayers are with you and your family.

    You too Haggerty. Hope your surgery went went today.

    WW, your persistent and analytical approach has encouraged me to increase my focus and work harder at my trading. When you’re up to it, I’d be pleased to share some of my recent system development work with you and get your input.

    Wishing you both a speedy and complete recovery.


    Capt. Morgan

  222. bamster


    Great to hear from you. Just take it easy for a while. Take the meds and you’ll be back to full tilt soon enough. I’ve been there.

    Take care.

  223. MrMiyagi

    Glad to hear from you, you should leave the Sheetrock as is in remembrance. Mmmmaybe not.

    Seriously though, glad you are ok, take it easy for a while and no zipping down the hallways in a wheelchair this time.

  224. Bill

    Heeeeey William Wallace! You are one tough dude! We’re so happy to read your comments. Rest up now, and don’t push it man. You really cheer us up!

  225. Dubbelito

    wish you a speedy recovery! Take care of that blood pump of yours and make sure you get some rest now. The health of yourself and your loved ones are what’s important, everything else is noise in the big picture.

    I hope you didn’t smuggle in some trader contraband and are watching those SMA’s as we speak! 😉

    Best wishes to you and yours,


  226. Bill

    … and a hard bounce back to safety at $1703

    You know, $1698.80 was only a breakout point – if it closes below that it’d just be back in it’s corrective trading range

    A close below $1600 would be a real sell signal in my book.

    But, I don’t have a friggin’ clue folks. Guess I should subscribe, eh Flea?

  227. Haggerty

    A few weeks ago I had went to the Doctor to take a look at this Hernia that I had been neglecting for years For the men it’s just under where we wear ours belts. So as I pulled my pants down the doctor said “oh that’s Big” Unfortunately I knew right away what she wasn’t talking about and told me that I need surgery as soon as possible. So that’s what I had taken care of yesterday.

    This is some little community we have here, I can’t tell how much I appreciated the kind words. I hope we all change our lives together.

    WW persevere my friend, see you on the yellow brick road when your ready!

  228. Veronica

    All the best for you WW.Hang in there:) My gold system still on a buy with a stop established but still below this AM’s prices.I’ve got a dollar system running that has been on fire this year and it went to a buy last night.

  229. Bill

    Sophia, if you don’t mind sharing, so you think gold is going up from here? Perhaps after some more basting? Why?

    I myself think it will go up, due to gold seasonality (Indians are buying now), and a bullish COT chart.

    Would like to learn your reasons please.


  230. sophia


    Gold consolidated from 1920 to 1540 and traded nowhere for few weeks. But now, with the European ordeal, the Swiss defending their currency against further appreciation, the Japanese also, Bernanke continuing of the path of printing money, people are becoming very reluctant to place any money in any currency, so PMs will appreciate over time.
    Long time investors are buying Gold as a diversification and will not be surprised to see it reaching 2000 $ in the next 3 months….

  231. Neo

    @ DG,

    Do you still keep your EUO position ? I´m with my UUP position.

    When do you think will be time to sell When $USD be at 78$ ?

    Or do you think we may be in front in a new daily and intermediate cycles for $USD ?

    Thks for your thoughts

  232. Michael

    Braveheart, terrific name for a guy that gives so much to the blog… good to hear from you and glad that you are on pace for a quick recovery… all the best to you and your family..

  233. Shalom Bernanke

    We were visiting my daughter at school but had to cut the trip short with all the news busting loose. Just got back, and have to say I love the smell of char-broiled markets in the morning!

    Not sure I’ll do any buying this morning, but it’s likely around 10:30-11 I start adding. Let’s see what happens.

    Good luck out there!

  234. Shalom Bernanke

    If events like MF Global keep popping up, I won’t even feel safe holding miners in street name at my brokers.

    Might get ’em registered and sock ’em away for a few years.

  235. ckpc


    What a great sense of humor you have!
    We are all wishing you a swift recovery also. Glad to see you posting….hope that means you are doing well.

  236. Shalom Bernanke


    Just request your broker to register them to you rather than keep in street name. In street name, the firm can lend out your securities, and I suppose steal them more easily as well.

    There is an extra fee depending on the brokerage house, something on the order of $35 per company/certificate, and some firms won’t even do it for you as they want to encourage more trading.

  237. Michael

    Thanks for the explanation SB, once you register the certificate, is it more difficult to trade? ie. does it take longer to make a trade?

  238. Shalom Bernanke


    Sure making a trade would take longer, especially if you choose to take delivery. This method would not be for traders. I mentioned it simply because it’s quite evident rules are breaking down, selectively enforced at best.

  239. Michael

    got it SB, thanks.. make alot of sense.. your posts about not trusting the authorities and now options on taking delivery are very valuable to the blog…

  240. Shalom Bernanke

    Hope it helps, fellas. I know Schwab will do it, while IB will not.

    I expect to register some of mine before long, and will keep a portion of funds where they are for regular trading purposes.

  241. Shalom Bernanke


    I haven’t decided, but it will depend on how much I decide to hold longer term as I’m likely to do some trimming in any massive runups, should they occur. My best guess right now is I’ll register over half, maybe as high as 70% b/c I do want to keep a healthy chunk for the remainder of the bull.

  242. High 5

    “This underlines the main difference between the physical gold
    market and the gold share market. When demand for gold rises,
    the sole way that demand can be satisfied is through existing
    ounces of the metal coming to the market, or new ounces mined
    through sweat and tears. Only a higher gold price can coax these
    ounces out. But when the demand for gold shares rises, this demand
    can be met by either existing shares coming to market, or
    newly-printed shares coming to the market. Thus, unlike gold,
    higher equity prices are not needed to coax shares onto the market
    to meet demand, since eager mine promoters are more than
    willing to meet that demand at existing share prices by creating
    shares out of thin air. That is why we see the phenomenon of a
    rising gold price, lagging gold share prices, and outperforming
    gold market capitalization.
    The massive dilution that gold companies have perpetrated on
    existing shareholders has only compounded gold shares’ underperformance
    relative to the metal. With many miners issuing
    new shares, and the gambling public more than willing to snap
    these issues up, there has been an artificially large amount of new
    funds entering the mining camps, driving up the price of everything
    from washed-up gold mines, machinery, mining wages,
    drilling contractors, and mine engineering costs. The result is
    that any rise in the gold price has been eroded by these higher
    costs. Had gold companies not issued so many shares, and the
    gold investing community been less tolerant of dilution, less
    money would be chasing the limited number of miners, contractors,
    etc., and the operating position of gold companies would be
    less precarious.”

    Excerpt from above link.

  243. Shalom Bernanke

    High 5,

    “The take away from the two analyst above is to look at a miner’s share issuance history before investing, as not all miners are profligate with their paper.”

    Sounds like good advice, and I’d likely agree with the author’s point. Also, no doubt GLD has affected miners, but we might not have GLD as competition much longer. lol

    I’m not predicting GLD blows up, but it’s more likely than most other options if something does go, IMO.

    I won’t get it perfect, but must stick with my plan. I think any management of mining companies diluting their stock right now would be a huge mistake, especially at depressed prices. This is another reason to only buy into pullbacks until the trend is solidly higher. We’ll know soon enough.

  244. High 5

    It is ironic though that, on average, mining companies are guilty of much the same malfeasance as our beloved federal reserve/treasury department. They are guilty of excessive printing and other crimes to rip off their shareholders.

    As this whole excrement pile gets flushed down the drain I doubt that many miners shares will be worth squat. Any value they could have will most likely be stolen by governments and greedy corporate officers.

    Google exters pyramid and consider carefully what the future holds for us all.

  245. Shalom Bernanke

    I think you are correct, High 5, and there are fewer and fewer places to hide to protect one’s assets.

    I will watch people like Rob McEwen, and when a guy like that begins to sell big amounts it means he’s cashing out. I will sell alongside him, even if I don’t catch the top.

    I’m not holding these “to the end” of time, just for the sweet spot of the bull, if I even get that right.

  246. 86d4life

    High 5,
    Just perused your link. If the pyramid at the top doesn`t say it all, I don`t know what does. Big Thanks. Another home run for physical.

  247. Shalom Bernanke


    Could be that it plays out that way, but physical will likely get confiscated long before the end game. We’ve already seen this happen in 1933.

    That would also put a big dent in GLD, leaving miners as the only option.

    Everything has risk, and the pool gets smaller every day. I can live with doing my best, come what may.

  248. Shalom Bernanke

    And if fellas like Jim Rogers and Marc Faber are correct, I might have more problems than where my assets are. Both feel war is inevitable, and my thought is it won’t be like Iraq, but a WWIII, with Americans a primary target.

    In any case, I’ll deal with what comes. It’s unfortunate the world has been turned to this.

  249. High 5

    I guess counter party risk exists with any asset. Even my physical gold is in the care of entities which I cannot fully trust and it would be foolish to keep it too close to home.

    On the war question, maybe I am being too optimistic, it seems realistic to think people will be better informed (less indoctrinated) due to the web and might say “no” to killing people that have done nothing to them.

    I think maybe the wars of the future will be more in the line of civil or revolutionary wars like we are witnessing in Northern Africa. Our, people of the world, biggest enemy tends to be our own over reaching governments.

    I think governments are nothing but organized criminal enterprises that prey on their own countrymen more than anything. Protection rackets.

  250. Shalom Bernanke

    The good news if you’re correct High5, is that it doesn’t take everybody to awaken to facilitate change. Just 4% of the population took part in the American Revolution.

    The internet certainly has been a potential game-changer, that is also why the criminals are working to censor it more every day.

  251. Danno

    Picked up some UUP puts. Don’t believe this USD rally is the real deal yet. It could be. It certainly surprised me. But I doubt it. The Greek news seems pretty silly and my guess is that it will most likely blow over.

  252. High 5

    I find the Greek….German examples of culture very interesting. Although I respect the German work and discipline ethic I must say the Greek example of disregard for government edicts (non payment of taxes) and disrespect of worthless government lackeys is what will save us.

    The Germans would probably be the same robots they proved to be in both world wars. They are submissive people and will, in the end, do what they are told.

    I’m generalizing of course and am of German descent myself. I’m not talking race here, just culture.

  253. Supermalc


    Up and down day in the markets, but an UP day for me on hearing from you on the blog. Even though your avatar is a scourge of the English, this Englishman is delighted to have you around. Place your faith in Him and get well soon buddy.


  254. St. Deluise

    bought equal parts DGP and GDX around the $1700 pivot

    also starting to think the long bonds may top in the next few days to weeks. so far either this rally caught everyone off guard (likely) or participation is waning. doubt these will plunge but they’re about out of room unless inflation turns back.

  255. wmp


    Haven’t heard much from you this week..are you buying the PM dip or already all in?

    I tried to sign up for your tweets last week but it didn’t work. Can you share that with us?


  256. Danno

    Can you please indicate your time frame? Thanks. Personally, I see the following:

    Short term
    Gold up

    Medium term
    Gold down

    Long term
    Gold way up

  257. ver

    What an F’n shakeout.

    Panic selling like today does a good job of teasing out relative strength. Gold continues to hold down the fort. Miners are impressing as well, especially in light of broader market weakness. Silver is sucking wind.

    Seems prudent for this cycle to focus on gold with a “surprise to the upside” bet in miners, and perhaps get heavier in miners once they can demonstrate they won’t get dragged down with a potential bear market cycle in stocks.

  258. Danno

    Thanks. The gold 1 month, 6 month and even 1 year charts look healthy to me. But when I pull back to the longer term charts gold does appear that it can pull back substantially. The longer term HUI chart concerns me as well. It looks sickly and I reserve the right to doubt its health until proven otherwise. Good luck in your trades.

  259. Poly

    Hi WMP,

    Been extremely busy working on some related projects, so been absent lately.

    Yes still very bullish on the gold cycles here and today’s action was very favorable confirmation of that.

    We saw gold rise last week with a falling dollar and the liquidity trade. Now we might be seeing gold hold the line with a strong dollar on the fear trade. Strength on both sides of the fence is bullish, let’s see how it follows through as we might see a fair amount of dollar strength now that it’s found its DCL.

    I try to tweet out of @TradePoly.

  260. Mətušélaḥ


    We’re entering a global recession and equities are starting a new bear market leg down. Being long gold at this point I think is foolish. Gary had it right. A massive D-wave correction in gold is coming.

  261. diana

    Shalom Bernanke and all,

    I have taken delivery of some of my miner stocks (for long term holding). Jim Sinclair suggested this in case of an economic and/or US$ collapse, where brokers might be closed; the assumption being that one would still have mining co. value.

    I have a question about PM mutual fund shares. Do you think the same applies to them? Would shares be redeemable at any of the miners? (My inclination is no.) I have never owned a mutual fund, but have considered it to avoid some of the risk of individual miners.

    Thanks for any ideas one might have about this.

  262. Shalom Bernanke


    I haven’t looked into it, but I doubt mutual fund shares will be redeemable as they are a composite of many miners and ownership could become an issue. The fund owns the shares, and the investor owns the fund directly, but the shares indirectly.

    As far as redeeming shares to a mining company, I assume it could be done via the transfer agent listed on most mining company websites. The only issue might be the price received, as there will not be any liquidity and hence no true price discovery. If this worst case scenario did occur, I’d expect etfs to have the same issues as mutual funds.

    I’m hoping it doesn’t get that ugly!

  263. Shalom Bernanke


    Got it. Seems like if one were so confident in gold’s direction they would have a position, especially since it’s a variant perception.

    Basically, the whole planet likes gold, at least for the last 10 years as evidenced by the gains every year.

  264. wmp

    Thanks for the response Poly..always appreciate your thoughts. Sounds like you expect the $ daily cycle to last throught the week as well? I’ve been adding to PM’s the past couple of days and plan to finish when we get a gold swing.

    I signed up for your tweets right after Ver sent his note..good to go and looking forward to them!

    Thanks again..

  265. Mətušélaḥ

    @Shalom Bernanke

    I don’t see gold behaving any different than equities. It hasn’t in the past. Gold might lag a move in equities by a little, but that’s all the protection you will get in gold.

  266. Bill

    Diana, my 2 yen regarding your comment:

    “… in case of an economic and/or US$ collapse, where brokers might be closed …”

    If I thought this were to happen, I’d sell all shares, close all bank and brokerage accounts (except one at a local bank for food, rent, etc.), and buy gold bars and put them in a vault.

  267. Bill

    Gold’s daily chart still looks bullish; but the 60 min chart still looks like the week of Oct 17th, up/down/repeat, still correcting down.

  268. Bill

    If GLD clears 168 then the trend reverses and gold is going up, me thinks.

    No riding today – legs, arse and feet are all wasted – time to become a member and read up on Gary!

  269. Shalom Bernanke


    That’s the easy choice ideally, but waiting for a $ collapse to occur first before buying gold will not work. What price do you expect to pay, if you could locate some for sale?

    One has to be in front of the move.

  270. Bill

    SB, correct you are.

    I haven’t done it yet – partly because I live in Japan and import taxes on gold bullion are insanely high here, and I don’t trust the US banks to put gold bars in a safety deposit box, and goldmoney.com is overseas plus I don’t trust NO BODY w/my gold.

    So SB, over to you please, what would you suggest?

  271. Shalom Bernanke

    Miners and physical for me. I agree trust is hard to come by these days, mostly of government but firms too.

    In the end, you might want to spread it around knowing full well you’ll get hosed here and there, but likely come out reasonably intact.

    This discussion is really a “what if” scenario, but in the meantime we also have to be invested in the best areas in case things don’t fall apart, and here again I believe metals and miners are sufficient and maybe a few ag companies too.

  272. Shalom Bernanke

    Collapse or not, one thing is sure, people sitting in paper money will get spanked at some point. Maybe not a 50% loss or hyperinflation, but 25-30% is almost assured in my book.

    It happens all the time, just most Americans can’t get their heads around it. What people fail to acknowledge is the haircut happens overnight. This is in addition to the gradual bleeding out we see over many years in all confetti.

  273. Wav_ridah

    At ease,
    The Bull isn’t going to make it easy for anyone. Wonder how many SMTers paniced and sold. I think we just may see a rocket ride soon though (fingers and toes crossed).

  274. ...at ease

    I hope no one sold or got stopped out, as it was just a correction as Gary expected. It was a rough ride down watching all those gains drop off though, most came back as of the end of day. Just looking for that nice run up to bank.

  275. ...at ease

    I would say, save your money, I looked at the site and you will be pulled in so many different directions with those trades, you will end up not making much just lots of trading broker fee. It sounds like he is pitching his product rather than the method to make money. No matter what you still have to be able to pull the trigger to trade. I like Gary’s site and system, he keeps things simple and concentrates on the moves to make us money.

  276. John V

    I have a question for those of you who buy and take of physical gold/silver.

    Are there any opinions about the advantages of buying and holding coins versus bars? I know it is cheaper to buy bars than coins, but a lot of people seem to focus on American Eagles, etc. I wanted to start deviating from the model portfolio by accumulating some physical a little early.

  277. Captain Morgan


    I agree with at ease. I was in Mike Turner’s beta test group for his market forecasting tool and was not impressed with it. He worked with TOS to set up an autotrade group with them. TOS selected a bunch of very low yield, high probability option plays and they got a high win/loss percentage over a short time, but I don’t think the results were due to Mike’s model per se, as much as the TOS guys’ trading skills. My 2 cents.

    There is no Holy Grail in this business, but I think Gary is the closest I’ve seen to being one.

  278. Poly


    It’s twitter.com/TradePoly


    Hard to say with the $USD, undeniable DCL put in place, very powerful move. Could be pure regression back though off such a powerful oversold move down.
    The past Daily cycle is marked as failed under all available scenario’s, so although that does not have to guarantee an IT cycle in decline, it sure must be our higher probability choice. That would imply another LT daily cycle to come here which could roll to threaten the $73.50 area.

    I caution that these are not normal times with all central banks being very active in the market. Their will to avert collapse and prevent contagion should not be underestimated. The dollars moves in 2008 is a prime example. Let’s never forget that in extreme environments, “King Dollar” will trump all cycles.
    Equity markets are to erratic to trade as an investor. The dollar is a yo-yo, so we stick with gold, the only bull market that is kind to “respectful” investors.

  279. Shalom Bernanke

    John V,

    If I were buying physical silver tomorrow, I’d buy either the Canadian silver maples or a stack of 10-100oz bars.

    Canadian silver maples have a $5 face value vs $1 legal tender for the eagles, which is not realistic, but more so if ever needed for that reason (face value trade). Also, they can be bought at less markup than eagles. I have eagles too, but the important thing is to own some of the stuff no matter which option you choose. But today, I’d buy the Canadian maples or if looking for bigger size, the 100 oz bars.

    Good luck.

  280. William Wallace


    I had a stop on the gold long below the 75sma that I lifted being I’m pretty convinced right now (unless this DC fails) that gold is going buff bull. I must admit though I was pretty disappointed to see gold drop below the 10, but with the dollar looking like it just got zapped with the heart paddles I wasn’t surprised. I was even less suprised to see bulls run it right back up after it popped back above the 10. Even with this pullback gold still closed well above the 10 and still looks like it’s ready to go mania.

    Over & out from the psycho ward, I got the nurses on the run…chasing them through the hallways in my wheelchair screaming for the Doc’s to send me the hell home already!

    Think I may stage a breakout tomorrow!

  281. Shalom Bernanke

    As far as the dollar index is concerned, and especially when trading metals, I think investors will do better to avoid what the USD is doing vs EUR, JPY etc like the plague. If trading gold, look to what gold is doing vs. the dollar (rising 10 years straight and counting defined by gold’s price in dollars), instead of looking at a third measure which isn’t even consistent or reliable and can be manipulated.

    Some people will always react to what the index is doing, so the USD index will at times affect gold, but the best traders understand gold vs dollar is all that matters over time.

  282. Shalom Bernanke

    People making decisions about their gold based on what the USD index does got flummoxed again today. Gold should be down big with the dollar index cranking higher, yet gold finished relatively unchanged. The lesson is to keep your eye on the ball.

    Have a good night, and get well WW. 🙂

  283. sophia

    Just got back…Gold looks pretty good tonight…
    Glad I bought this morning as I missed last week call while I was travelling….

  284. catbird


    Good evening.

    Re: maples vs. eagles, I thought I heard that a big disadvantage for Americans buying foreign coins is that they are taxed as collectibles, while Eagles are not. Am I wrong?

  285. KAL


    Glad to hear you’re doing well. My Dad tells the story of when he was a kid and fell out of a tree and broke his arm. They had him in the hospital overnight, and he snuck out and went home. Of course, this was in the late 50’s in a hospital in Chattanooga. So, probably not a good call for you, but it can be done. Maybe Shawshank-style?

    Get better!


  286. Elaine


    My husband’s first heart attack was a quadruple bypass, he was in the hospital 11 days. His second heart attach they put in a stent and he was out in 2.

    Times have changed, but you need to be sure you are taking care of yourself.

  287. Kate

    Poly, thank you for your posts. May I ask what ETF’s you are using (GLD?), and do you use different ETF’s depending on where gold is in the cycle? Thank you, KP

  288. oa92000

    Wav_ridah said…
    GLD, SLV and HUI all back tested today and held support. All look bullish. Today was the day to top off specifically this AM.”

    Need a high beta here? Not sure if UYM is better than SLW & GDX ? or maybe dgp & agq?

  289. Wav_ridah

    Classic shakeout this AM. Back tested the breakout of the rising flag on GLD and SLV. Both held into the close. HUI backtested the NL of the H&S bottom, bounced. All looking good. H&S bottom on 60 min $Gold may backtest the NL soon at about 1718 I’m expecting it to bounce so we can get back to doing what we were doing.

  290. Poly


    Primarily a range of options on GLD, at least early on in the IT cycle.

    Then some NUGT, UGL and AGQ depending on the cycle.

  291. Shalom Bernanke


    Could be that foreign coins are taxed as collectibles. Can’t say for sure as I’m not a tax guy. As I understand it, taxes are currently higher for physical in any case, and I’d expect the rates to rise in the future as well.

    If there is one thing we know, governments will always go where the money is, just like we saw in Argentina last week. In the process, they will garner support of all Americans too stupid enough to buy physical themselves by labeling us “unpatriotic”. 🙂

  292. St. Deluise

    haven’t usually been following GDX lately but since that failed breakout it’s really being accumulated stealithly.

    gdx daily 4.tinypic.com/11bkuav.png

    buyers keep adding into weakness. think this next breakout is the one that just goes and goes. holding a small position for the last few days for now.

    gold looks bullish, but less so. i liken it to a team losing in basketball, but only by 5 points or so. all gold has to do is hold these levels for a few more days and the right MAs will have caught up.

    in other news /es buy signal to 1249.75 stop 1218.5, but the FOMC volatility may make this hard to trade today.

    that’s it for me, good luck and welcome back WW!

  293. 86d4life

    I remember hearing too, part of the appeal of Eagles are since they are `our` currency, they are not taxed as collectibles, but other currency bullion coins are. My understanding at this point.

  294. St. Deluise

    oops, looks like i cut off the link

    GDX day http://i44.tinypic.com/11bkuav.jpg

    on the bottom subgraph is effective volume, or essentially buys-sells normalized to the price movement.

    run up from june was real, but reversal after the breakout “fake” in terms of it actually being due to majority selling.

    in other news i think if /gc can make a new high here past 1750 that may put the kibosh on the gold bear case for good.

  295. Danno

    It’s probably not a good idea to call strangers on the internet fools because they do not agree with your stock market guesses. The market is the great equalizer. Everyone is wrong sooner or later. For your sake I hope that you guess well. For the record, I did not necessarily disagree with you. A serious gold correction is still a real possibility imo. I just think it’s a bit early and not quite a sure thing yet. We need more time and price movement information.

  296. Danno

    Concerning physical,
    American Eagles are considered the easiest bullion to trade because they are so readily accepted worldwide. However, a very close second is the Canadian Maple. The Maple is so close, in fact, that to debate the ‘tradability’ angle is probably overkill. Personally, I think gold Eagles are very ugly and to the average person they do not even look like real gold (because they are mixed with a hardening metal – so they are not pure gold). By contrast, the gold Maple is a stunning coin. Even the least informed person is captivated by the beauty of pure gold. If you are in a pinch and need to trade gold for something, it might not be a bad idea to have some gold that actually looks like… GOLD. Just my two cents. There is also the whole US confiscation angle. Would the USA come for US coins first? Who knows. Maybe. Could buy you some time.

  297. Mətušélaḥ


    No, that’s not what I said. What I said was: I thought it was foolish to go long in this market, and that gold will follow equities down, as it has in the past, albeit with a bit of a lag. And that’s all the protection that gold will afford you.

    I didn’t name call anyone, and if you continue to misrepresent what I said, I will no longer communicate with you. Actually, as of now, you and I are pretty much over. Don’t even bother apologizing.

  298. Danno

    I’m not going to apologize to you. Don’t flatter yourself. You did, in fact, call everyone who disagrees with your guess… a fool.

  299. Mətušélaḥ


    I don’t trade gold, so I have no skin in this. I’ve posted earlier that I see gold at the $1,000 level within less than a year. So far, I see no reason to change this assessment. As to what the majority of people think, the majority of people more often than not in these matters is wrong.

  300. Movax2

    If no QE3 and there aren’t already too many dollars and deflationary spiral takes hold, I would guess gold would sell off, I have no idea where to, before it goes up on fears of instability (See early 2009), and eventually the financial system crumbles, faith is lost in gov and authority and the banking system and the market value becomes unimportant as physical gold would be priceless and become a method of trading goods to a small exent, but big holders will hold until a new system is formed and trusted.

    But that doesn’t matter, there will be a QE3 soon.

  301. Aaron

    As far as physical coins go, nothing is more recognized worldwide, than the krugs, everything else is a distant second and below.

  302. rose

    Does anyone else have the Kitco live tracker on their desktop? Mine has been frozen at Spot Gold bid $1736.20 and Spot Silver bid $34.16 – when I noticed I checked the Kitco website and it is the same. The Bullion Desk shows Spot Gold at $1720.55 and Spot Silver 16 $33.86. I have been wondering why there was such a drop in metals stocks. Would someone please explain simply what we are seeing today and also suggest a sound strategy for toughing out the volatility.

    With sincerest thanks in advance and with kindest regards,

    Rose, in it to win it! 🙂

  303. St. Deluise

    /gc buyers stepped in pretty heavy last hour whereas /es just sort of floundering.

    perhaps gold follows stocks down. or perhaps gold disconnects from them starting very soon.

    or, and this is what i’m starting to think earnestly, maybe they both continue to rise.

    if both commods and stocks fall, where is that money going to go? bonds? they don’t seem nearly as attractive as they were 3 years ago.

    but i don’t know. went long SPY just now for a system trade though. target /es 1249.5 stop 1218.5.

  304. ver

    St. D:

    What does the effective volume look like for the dollar action over the past few days?

    Seems like we may see a return to the long PM / short stocks trend from this summer (alongside a rising/consolidating dollar).

    I’ve fancied taking on a long GDX / short SPY position but haven’t done anything about it (yet).

  305. rose

    MrMiyagi, Thank you!

    WOW – What a lot of other information too! Do you know what the time lag is for non-subs?

    With very kindest regards,


  306. Ryan

    I know it’s hard to do but try not to watch the daily wiggles, the worst thing for you to do would be getting scared out of your positions. I know I still fight it.

  307. St. Deluise

    i do own some UUP calls but most of my positions are decidedly dollar-negative.

    sooner or later (perhaps after a few more interventions) i expect people to stop giving a hoot about the forex market altogether. you’d have to be nuts to be heavily invested in this crapola at this point.

  308. MrMiyagi

    The Netdania quotes are real-time, you can see the time near the right end. You can also right click on any quote and delete it, save whichever ones you want by registering for free this way you don’t have to watch every single currency around.

  309. ver

    How many people are eyeing that epic gap on the HUI (580-611)? Twice now it’s stonewalled attempts to fill. Perhaps the third time will be the charm.

    Gap filling aside, GDX is showing real strength and St. D’s effective volume charts are reinforcing the picture so I’m gradually reallocating between GLD and GDX in the build up to this move.

    Getting in front a big move, with favorable cycle readings on our side to boot, is the best way to build a profit cushion to help us ride through the volatility we’re bound to see as miners attempt to make new highs.

  310. rose


    Further to the Netdania info – thank you again. I will familiarize myself with the quotes set-up asap – and I know that is going to make things a whole lot easier for me.

    With very kindest regards, Rose

  311. rose

    Ryan and At Ease,

    Thank you for your comforting words and advice about not watching the wiggles. I really should do as you say and then I would have a lot of free time every day. I could take up a new hobby – maybe rock climbing. 🙂

    With very kindest regards, Rose

  312. James

    I know a lot of people here mostly buy the mining ETF’s for a trade but is it true GDXJ pays a 10.36% dividend? I thought that seemed high but could very well be true with how beaten down the miners have been lately? Thanks to anyone who knows.

  313. oa92000

    intelliblue2000 said…
    I wonder why the stock futures are down so much, there is no news coming out of Europe yet.”

    Greece Debt Crisis: Vote Could Force Expulsion From Eurozone

  314. Captain Morgan

    Fast Trader,

    I enjoyed your link with the intermarket analysis.

    With a strengthening $USD as money flows into treasuries/risk off trade, I don’t see how this can bode well for PMs in the near term.

    What are your thoughts on this?

  315. St. Deluise

    pretty dramatic reversal in the usd/USTs. how much you want to bet the IMF may be throwing its hat in the ring at this G20 meeting.

    /es target this morning still 1249.5. stop technically triggered last night but quickly reversed..

    also potential /gc channel here with resistance around 1790 or so. i may lighten a bit there.

    /gc 1 hour http://i44.tinypic.com/33waxas.png

  316. Razvan

    What is the status of the short silver position?? have you cut the loses yet?

    still holding 5:1 long silver from the breakout at $32.30 with a stop at $30.

  317. William Wallace

    Congrats to everyone who had the heart to add to gold longs on that pullback to the 10sma, being I’m heavy already all I could do was lift my stop, ask the nurse for another pain killer, and go back to bed 🙂

    Hold down the fort people!

  318. ckpc

    Went to bed sort of bummed, expecting to face another big draw down, and can’t believe what I see this morning! Huge surprise!
    I added yesterday, though it was hard to fight the emotions. So glad I listened to Gary.

  319. St. Deluise

    /es putting in a decent H&S on the hourly.

    while long bonds /zb seem to be megaphoning.

    they both can’t continue higher anymore. i’m going to guess /zb’s the dead man walking here.

  320. Captain Morgan


    I don’t know. It does sound like something Porter would produce. It was forwarded to me by one of my SF bay area option trading colleagues. I thought this group would enjoy it.

  321. Gary

    I’ve never found patterns like H&S to have any edge when viewed on an intraday period. There is too much volatility, and any particular move could all be from one large fund trading.

    I’ve only found patterns to be of slightly better use on a daily basis, and only when they are confirmed by cycles and sentiment.

    I think most retail investors are just kidding themselves if they think they can successfully trade based on chart patterns. If only it was that easy!

    This is probably the toughest business in the world to succeed at. Do you really think you will be able to do that just by looking at charts?

    I’m afraid it’s probably going to take a little more effort than that.

  322. Mətušélaḥ


    Silver, gold, equities, are all a short. I have not changed my position. I took two initial 1/4 positions on a 3x bear ETF, and will add to that as warranted. So, as of now, I’m 1/2 in cash and 1/2 short the market via a 3x bear ETF. I do not trade gold or silver or any individual stocks. I only trade the indexes.

  323. torero91


    I find it interesting that you trade the 3X ETFs, rather than futures. You obviously enjoy leverage and feel very confident with your market calls. Why not avoid all the slippage and have basically 24-hour access to entries, exits, and stops?

  324. Captain Morgan


    I tend to agree with you about intraday patterns, but multiple day H&S patterns based upon hourly bars (pointed out to us on Nov 1 by Wav-ridah below) did play out and hit its projected target of about 1761 today.

    Luck? Perhaps, but I find the hourly intraday time frame to provide very useful information on where the daily bars are going, at least in a less news-driven environment.

    Wav_ridah said…
    Here’s the H&S Bootom on $GOLD 60 min


    November 1, 2011 9:31 PM

  325. Mətušélaḥ


    It’s a leveraged ETF, but my position is not leveraged. I do not borrow on margin to purchase the ETF. Also, I don’t hold for more than a few weeks, so slippage is not that big a deal.

  326. St. Deluise

    chart patterns are not very useful, yes. but they often give you an edge as to what other people are thinking. sell volume picked up at the gap up open which also was a pivot and allllso a very plain as day right shoulder. good for 23 /es points.

    and when something megaphones that’s obviously a sign of extreme volatility.

    mostly, as i’ve posted a gazillion times, i follow buy and sell volume. the only true indicator of demand imo.

  327. Gary

    I think you will find that for every intraday pattern that “works” you’ll have about 9 that don’t work.

    It’s mostly just a waste of time and more importantly money.

    One of the reasons retail traders usually lose money, or at least don’t make money, is that the machine has convinced them they can win by doing nothing more strenuous than looking at chart patterns.

    This business just isn’t that easy. However your broker would love for you to think it is. That’s why he will supply you with free charts and all kinds of technical doodads guaranteed to improve your trading.

    Really all he’s doing is improving his commissions.

  328. Razvan

    silver is very volatile right now but it will follow gold. Next target is $37 most likely by the end of this month. To play this move you need a large stop, the market is not going to make it easy to jump on the silver train but the rewards are worth the ride.

  329. Gary

    Many, or more correctly most rallies progress on declining volume. If one just watches volume they would miss virtually every rally in history.

    There really is no holy grail. What works one time isn’t guaranteed to work the next.

    I’ve found that a combination of a secular bull market, cycles, sentiment, and confirming technicals give me an edge in the market.

    Do they work 100% of the time? No, of course not. But more importantly does the system make money? Yes, very consistently.

  330. Gary

    And above all else if you want to grow your portfolio. Never, never, never, never short a bull market.

    Some people never learn that lesson. I suggest that if you are serious about making money in the speculation business you learn that lesson as quickly as possible.

  331. Shalom Bernanke

    Pleasant morning for the miners, so nothing to be done on my end but enjoy the day. I’m not gonna watch every tick and get juked out of strong hand status.

    I wonder how many will try and avoid the next little pullback by booking gains, and if they do, when and how will they get back in again? I’d say don’t do it!

    Good luck fellers!

  332. St. Deluise

    i look at relative volume, not absolute. edge yes, nothing perfect.

    anyway not sure where the combat here is coming from, i’m not trying to contradict you. is anyone here even short gold anymore? i haven’t in weeks and even the guy who knows how to turn his letters upsidown said he isn’t touching it.

    only thing i’m short is the long bond, and that is meager.

  333. oa92000

    Goldman Sachs forecasts commodity prices will rebound strongly in the next year, as growth in demand from prospering emerging markets far outweigh the impact of the crisis in western economies. Goldman predicts a jump in prices of key manufacturing ingredients such as oil, aluminium, copper, nickel and zinc.

    Anybody knows how to play this??

  334. gold silver troll

    FWIW, the last time silver diverged this much from gold with the USD down was the day before the epic silver crash in late April – obviously in hindsight silver was trying to tell something to us.

    I will certainly lock in 50% of my profits today if gold closes +1% and silver closes in the red. I don’t mind chasing tomorrow morning. I just don’t wanna make the same mistake twice.

    Hopefully we all have stops in place.

  335. William Wallace

    Fears of a D-wave caused many to jump ship early and miss a massive advance higher, gold’s retracement to the 200sma was not far from where most exited their longs. I think that we are in the midst of witnessing the same fear cause many to miss another opportunity of a lifetime.

  336. Captain Morgan


    You’re right. Very perceptive.

    I know it caused me to miss that 300 point run-up in gold. I think just better to dive in there with your system entry, set a reasonable stop and see what happens.

    Good to see your posts. Are you home now?

  337. Razvan

    OA, i am talking about silver. I am not seeing any resistance until about $37 although it is probably wiser to watch gold for a good time to take the foot off the pedal.

  338. sophia

    I am definitely happy with my little buys of Gold at 1701 and 1694 on Monday!
    Had the last order at 1681, and misssed by 0.2..c’est la vie, trading from a hotel in NH with kuds around and jetlag, so cannot be accurate…
    W2, glad to know that you are feeling better, the news sadenned me a lot …don’t forget to do some easy exercise regularly, it will help you recover fast!

  339. 86d4life

    Great trades on Mon. I`m trying to convince Heart attack Boy that he doesn`t have to try to be Superman, that backing off the gas a tad will keep him in the race a lot longer. Not sure if I`m getting through though.

  340. sophia


    I am with you re. Taming W2wonderboy!
    His boy is the same age as my twins daughters, so I know that life is too important now to have health issues…
    Gold, Silver, even freaking German Dax are not worth the time with your family.
    Missed 100 points extra profit in Dax by just having a second slice of delicious american bacon for breakfast this morning!

  341. William Wallace


    Thanks for your concern 🙂
    Glad to hear you bought that pullback, we should have a good 10 days or so of higher numbers. This daily cycle looks beastly so far.

  342. sophia


    I am ready to xash in when Gary and other very good traders on this blog decide that it is too risky to keep…
    Xmas is coming soon…
    Take care

  343. William Wallace


    I listen to you more than my own mother! Dont forget that your going to be getting an email from Burtha (the nurse with the mustache and hairy chest you wanted me to hook you up with) soon 😉

  344. 86d4life

    you really are BAD man…….

    Supposedly the BEST bacon in the good ole USA comes from Thielens Meat Market in Pierz, Mn. I`ve had it and it will make your socks go up and down. They ship too!

  345. ver

    The futures action in between sessions is pretty worthless. Since it’s quiet and thinly traded, traders can and often do bump the price in either direction (presumably to trigger stops, perhaps just for giggles).

  346. Captain Morgan


    I knew you didn’t forget. Not much gets by you. No urgency. I’m still tweaking my rules set and practicing live trading until I get it right. When you get rested up and curious, let me know and I’d be pleased to share what I’m doing and exchange some thoughts with you. What I’m doing is very much in concert with what Gary is helping us do, but I’m also bringing in some other elements.

    Take it easy and do what your doctor says. Best, CM

  347. ...at ease

    I made some money on the choppiness yesterday. Missed the move up today, fell asleep. LOL But back in, hoping for another ride up. Just been bouncing up and down here a few points.

  348. MrSu


    On the Premium site, I made a post and it said, “your comment is awaiting moderation”.

    I tried it twice so, there is a duplicate post.

  349. sophia

    Decided to reduce my exposure Gold at 1760 for the weekend…heading back to Europe, don’t feel like keeping an aggressive position over the w/e…

  350. Haggerty

    I had 4% on the sidelines and entered some SLV calls. With it consolidating for a few days and where we are in gold’s daily cycle hoping for a nice little bounce over next week.

  351. Gary

    I suggest you quit worrying about the dollar and just follow the trade. Gold has clearly shown it can buck a strong dollar.

    Stocks can’t, but then we aren’t trading stocks.

  352. 86d4life

    I`ve been watching the $ on fxpro on a daily. It just bounced off the top of the range again. GLD dropped down onto 50% retracement and bounced nice. And look at W2s swoop under GLD. 10,50 and 75, all bundled up nice and ready for the ride.

  353. 86d4life

    At Ease,
    Hoping I`m understanding your question. I don`t trade on FX, but I follow gold and dollar streaming quotes there as you know, Fido doesn`t carry these in their arsenal of indciators(how ridiculous!). W2 has convinced me that I need to shag on over to TOS, which I agree with, but things have been such a blender, when do we find a few flat days to move assets? Hope this was what you were asking 🙂

  354. 86d4life

    Ok, I guess I`m not using really any of their tools, but following a couple of the advanced charts, which have simple tools attached and I didn`t have to create an account. I went to the site, fished around `til I had the charts I wanted and put those on my favorites taboo.

  355. ...at ease

    Perhaps after this cycle or at the D wave or around the holidays (Christmas week, trading should be slow that week between Christmas and New Year) to move funds. I am looking for a platform to trade and view market moves on IPAD or phone, as I currently use a notepad. My current platforms are not supported on IPADS/PHONES other than trading, not viewing markets. I also would like to combine my funds into a single platform. Right now have Fidelity and Trade Station and Options Xpress. With traveling so much I run into delays or issues to access trades or market views due to limited connectivity. For instance right now I can’t access the Fidelity server for trading as Fidelity says it won’t allow access from an unsecure server (hotel service in MX). So have to be able to trade down here more easily than this while watching the markets. Looking for the optimum set up going forward. I hate to leave Fidelity, however if it is impossible to trade instantly, that’s a problem.

  356. 86d4life

    yeah, not good, not being able to access your goods. Finding the one optimum platform would seem to be the solution, all under one roof so to speak, but then also considering being split up incase of ?? I thought somebody mentioned this week having a couple of accounts, one being MF! The prime reason right there to be split up because who saw that one coming. If somebody had all their funds under one roof such as the MF situation, I could see the grey hair piling in faster that the priest on The Exorcist. Ish!

  357. ...at ease

    Yeah, agree on that. Fidelity should survive over others, so could leave non trading funds in there TGLDX. Just looking for a good platform for trading and market move watching for a chunk of funds.

  358. ...at ease

    Yeah, agree on that. Fidelity should survive over others, so could leave non trading funds in there TGLDX. Just looking for a good platform for trading and market move watching for a chunk of funds.

  359. johnboatcat

    at ease – Schwab has a good mobile app for iphone and soon to have one optimized for the pad. You can keep your Options Express as it is related and use Schwab bank to get better return on your cash, and get FDIC coverage. Just takes seconds to move cash back and forth. They have all the other mobile platforms as well.

  360. 86d4life

    that would be a good way to be split up. I have a few of those long term holds I got from Caseys also, so that`s a good back up plan.

    doesn`t options express handle futures as well? So since they are in the Schwabb camp, can funds be moved back and forth between OE and Schwabb? Thanks.

  361. St. Deluise

    some decent bond buying this morning. may enourage the dollar.

    holding gdx and gold positions, but added a small upro short to partially hedge over the weekend. lord knows what these knucklheads are going to come up with in the next 48 hours.

  362. johnboatcat

    life – It would seem so. Yes. You can open OE right from your Schwab trading platform if you have signed up. I have not. Here is what it says.

    Play Video

    Walt Bettinger, CEO of Schwab,
    on optionsXpress. Watch video

    Schwab is pleased to announce the acquisition of optionsXpress.

    The Charles Schwab Corporation, delivering on its ongoing commitment to enhance our trading capabilities, has acquired optionsXpress, a leader in options and futures trading.

    Enhanced capabilities available from optionsXpress.
    With advanced trading features and exclusive educational resources and commentary, you can enjoy a robust trading experience and deepen your trading knowledge. Here are just some of the trading capabilities you may be interested in:

    * Ability to trade three- and four-legged options online
    * Spread trading in IRA accounts
    * Portfolio margining for greater efficiency
    * Futures trading

    This acquisition doesn’t affect your existing Schwab account or alter our current services. It does give you more choices. We’ll keep you informed of our progress as we work quickly to combine features from both firms for an outstanding trading experience.

    Start benefiting now.
    Schwab clients can start taking advantage of optionsXpress resources immediately.

  363. johnboatcat

    doesn`t options express handle futures as well?

    So since they are in the Schwabb camp, can funds be moved back and forth between OE and Schwabb?

    I called them and the answer is yes, but not as quickly as between Schwab Bank and Schwab Brokerage (single day) yet. They are working on that and it will available soon. Now it is a 3 day process between OExpress and Bank or Brokerage account. No fee transfers.

  364. Driver


    I didn’t see PMs on that list. Am I correct?

    If so, all I can figure is that PMs will be sold to get the extra margin money needed for the CME products not sold at the open.

  365. MrSu

    Looks like the CME is lowering initial margin requirements.

    “However, I think that the sane explanation here is that the CME is not raising margins across the board on all products – but rather lowering the initial margin requirements to AVOID triggering margin calls as they try to clean up the MF Global mess.”


    CME has a tweet referencing the above article.


  366. RJ

    Anyone own and/or recommend great basin gold (GBG) or crocodile gold (CRK.TO)?

    Both of these were not invited to the party as of yet.

    They going bankrupt, artificially depressed, etc?

  367. gideon

    i would like to reiterate what I have been saying for months. Gold is overall in a wave 2 ABC type correction (which is minor 2 of major 3)and has completed the A wvae and is just finishing up on the B wave (having either completed or nearly completed the C leg of the B wave). I expect a downward trend to resume, to target the upper 1300s. The first downleg was 1924 to 1530=394 points. If the second leg is about equal to the first and starts from 1770ish, then it should reach near to 1376. That is unbelievably close to the target based on EW principles, that an extended fifth is followed by a retracement to the bottom of subwave 2, which in our case was 1380.

  368. ALEX


    I understand this part when you said…

    “The first downleg was 1924 to 1530=394 points. If the second leg is about equal to the first and starts from 1770ish, then it should reach near to 1376.”

    But I’m not an EW guy, so I dont quite see the part where you said..

    “Gold is overall in a wave 2 ABC type correction (which is minor 2 of major 3)”

    a chart could clarify-thx

  369. Gary

    Gold has already completed a 1-2-3 reversal with a double bottom at $1600. That is a very powerful basing pattern.

    Add to that the extreme Blees rating, extreme sentiment levels, confirmed intermediate cycle low, and its highly unlikely we will ever see gold back below $1500 for the rest of this secular bull market.

    I would like to see a true D-wave decline also but it looks like this chance is now gone. We are going to have to see another extreme stretch to the upside before the next opportunity for a hard correction can materialize.

    This is one of the reasons I don’t pay too much attention to chart patterns unless they are confirmed by cycles, sentiment and preferably the COT reports also. Most chartist just end up going broke in the long run. I just don’t believe one can truly get an edge in the market by only using charts.

    There is just nothing at the current time that would suggest there is much chance of a significant further decline in the precious metals sector. Well other than some obscure EW pattern. And we all know how well EW is at predicting market movements.

    Like I always say EW is the single best tool ever developed for predicting the past. Other than that it’s completely useless, as far as I can tell.

  370. ALEX

    I have been following a chart of SILVER that was posted here a month ago. The assumption is that Silver has been following a pattern that occurred before , almost step by step.

    The BLACK LINE is where we were then, the RED LINE is where it was thought we could go

    This was the chart (Color arrows are mine)


    Now it actually HAS STILL followed it so far. SO along those lines ( AND I DONT KNOW THAT IT WILL, AND GARY WILL THINK ITS FOOLISH, I KNOW : )

    We could next expect a QUICK SHAKE OUT, and the a strong thrust upward.

    Put these 2 charts up side by side…colored arrows are Mine



    so in summary…

    Yellow-Yellow ARROW happened

    Blue-Blue ARROW happened

    Purple ARROW shake out Next?
    Green ARROW surge follows?

    TIME WILL TELL…Fun to watch anyways, right?

  371. ALEX


    I just read what you wrote and I tend to agree with all that you said
    ( except that I use charts for quite a bit more, but yes… CYCLES!!!…and conditions like Sentiment and Blees and COT are what make the conviction stronger).


  372. Wav_ridah

    On the gold chart, I don’t know if anyone noticed yet but we could be forming a new steeper channel. The last correction over shot the lower new trendline modestly then quickly regained it.

  373. TommyD

    Oh My Goodness, I just found out that an adviser that I was considering to manage my money, just before I found Gary,,, He is with “MF GLOBAL”…
    Oh I feel sick now. He emailed me with a warning that nothing is safe anymore. His clients are wiped out…

    I Count my lucky stars from here on out… This is serious business folks.

    Best to all,

  374. ALEX

    Thanks BobLoves Hawii


    I have been trading energy for the past 3 weeks too- I like the set ups .

    Also Watching AXAS , ROYL , CDXS immediately, and have a list of others that I’ve been trading …

    CDXS= NICE POP — pulling back to 10 & 20 sma lighter volume.

    ROYL= BETTER pop…sweet Bull Flag

  375. JEFFtheFLEA

    tommy d

    i just thank God that i was with 2 brokers. Not for this reason, but because i like my 2 brokers for different stregths.
    Now i will have my money in 2 different brokers and try to do some research on them, although i dont really know how to screen them.
    John Corzine not being there will be important

Comments are closed.