161 thoughts on “PORTFOLIO CHANGE

  1. ร‰amonn

    Gold higher than $1696.8 will confirm a new cycle. Though if Gary is convinced that a low is in, I’m happy with that too. We all know how good he has been at calling the lows. Thank you Gary :o)

  2. ALEX

    From the last post

    Actually SB and KEYS

    My opinion is OCT 4th = THE LOWS , and OCT 20 , recent latest lows.
    and Volume buying is coming into these Miners right now.

    The way I look at things (take EXK,NG, and XG for example) on a 3 month daily chart.
    The lows were on OCT 4th..everyone was BEARISH and throwing them AWAY–

    BUT Buyers came in and pushed them up big off those lows…then a sideways move has kept them strong(Over their 10sma, but wore off Overbought conditions)EXK actually dropped below the MA’s , but has recovered…

    They now are ready for a break out over recent OCT highs with volume.

    I.M.H.O. Prices will not be lower than OCT 4th , and now not below OCT 20’s recent lows either. Buyers will now buy the dips ( like today)

    EXAMPLE: EXK looks to have large volume buying by days end / and is NOT overbought, so has room to run , and recovered it 10 & 20 sma

    http://www.screencast.com/t/qoEvqQkMQB

    October 25, 2011 8:09 AM

  3. rose

    Dear All,

    What a day to HAVE to have been away – just came back and saw the big metals moves and the portfolio changes. Any kind suggestions for remedial action to take?

    With sincerest thanks in advance and with very kindest regards,

    Rose , ๐Ÿ™‚ smiling anyway

  4. Hal Jalikakik

    Does everyone here have a margin agreement? For some reason I can’t touch my money when we do these portfolio changes. Something about the proceeds being tied up until “settlement” and that takes 3 days. Has it always been this way? WTF???

  5. Hal Jalikakik

    I mean, this seriously drives me nuts! I sell one thing and then cannot reinvest that money for three days??? How is an investor supposed to be nimble if it takes three days to get access to his money?

  6. Shalom Bernanke

    Just peeking in to get the score, nice surprise.

    Several miners report earnings in the first two weeks of November, so we have a catalyst for some follow through on this move. I see HUI over the 200 MA again, but GDX right at on it.

    Let’s see what happens, but I might have to turn up my risk a little more. I don’t like buying strength in down trending markets, but today is beginning to feel like metals&miners have turned the corner.

  7. ALEX

    HAL

    I believe you CAN buy with unsettled funds…(you just cannot sell it until the settlement date of the original sell that freed up the money).

    A Margin account eliminates that problem all together.

  8. Shalom Bernanke

    I hope those that timed the bottom well stay with their positions and don’t take profits at the first sign of pullback. If miners have turned decisively higher starting a new uptrend, riding through pullbacks will be the most profitable strategy, as it’ll be too hard to buy back once profits are booked.

  9. Haggerty

    Eamon

    Be careful with that brother. We need to play this game for a long time. know yourself and what you can handle as far as a drawdown.

  10. Razvan

    silver was the best way to play today if you were out of position. It broke out much later than gold and is already up more than gold for the day.

  11. MrMiyagi

    Hal,
    I had that problem with a regular account, it’s just the way it is.
    Open a margin account and you can buy and sell as soon as your order is filled, no questions asked.

  12. ALEX

    Blogger oa92000 said…

    GPL not doing well compared to exk & slw

    Actually, its a little deceiving to look at the chart, because it doesnt “LOOK LIKE” it is doing much , but actually it is up over 7% and has great volume. SLW only 3% and EXK 6% (Currently) . So its a better performer today.

    Its pushing against a down trend line and I believe its going to run very well when it breaks through. With this volume building, it should be sooner than later I.M.H.O. ;]

  13. ALEX

    DAVID

    SO GLAD you wrote that…thx! I actually bought STP and LDK recently…better go check on them ๐Ÿ™‚

    Should just swap to GPL or UXG

  14. ALEX

    Oh ao92000

    You meant Longer term, I thought you meant today. my bad.

    They all look like they could at least double going forward ๐Ÿ™‚

  15. sophia

    Rose,

    Like you, I was travelling today, so I am frustrated to have missed the starting of the run, but I am sure that we will be able to get on the train soon.

  16. Sandy

    For guys who want to read Poly’s views on markets, he is on Twitter @TradePoly.

    I love his trading style. He has made amazing calls over last 1-2 years.

  17. St. Deluise

    just bailed on my SDS here at es 1230. breakeven.

    sell signal to 1220 still valid but i don’t like how it’s acting.

    i’ll try a short again at the 233 day SMA. but as far as i’m concerned gold is back. half DGP position for now. looking forward to old turkey again.

    also bought a small slug of the solar etf, TAN. i’m not sure how much more abuse this sector could possibly take. and it’s in the low $3’s for cryin’ out loud.

  18. sophia

    Gary,

    with your investment of 10% of portfolio in a special share ( I don’t want to give too much info), would you consider a position of Copper, Palladium, Platinium futures as being as good ?

    Also, very silly, but I want to change my name of the premium site, how do I do that please?

  19. Shalom Bernanke

    I’m going to dial up my total risk by another half percent by the close. I know it’s not much, but I hate buying up days in a down trending sector.

    Keeping everything else the same, including the 1/3 SSO short I have left and of course all my miners.

  20. sophia

    W2,

    You have ” cojones ” of steal my friend…I cut on Friday morning my shorts and reverted…
    Let’s hope that you are right, it would be nice to buy the damned Dax cheaper!!

  21. Shalom Bernanke

    HUI right at the 200 MA. I dialed up my risk a bit as stated earlier, but would like to see the HUI stay above the 200 so momentum monkeys start to get interested.

    It should happen, but will take some time, IMO.

  22. sophia

    I find pretty amazing that Gary does on vacation and makes tons of money on the first day of his break! I guess that it pays for some burritos and some ropes to climb!! Well done, pretty impressive

  23. sophia

    Miyagi-sensei,

    I was just contemplating Netflix..Apparently, they are coming to the UK… 77$ seems still a bit expensive, but it is going to be very soon a great buy

  24. Ben

    SF, the 3-yr cycle low will be in about three years. If it’s severely left translated, then we are in for some wild ride ahead. Regardless of PMs getting some legs if the dollar cracks, I think we’d all be a lot better off if the dollar could still top the recent 80.

  25. rose

    Dear Poly,

    further to your Twitter account doubling

    Swore I would NEVER sign up for Twitter – well, as the old saying goes: NEVER say NEVER!

    Following you,

    Rose ๐Ÿ™‚

  26. Alex in Montana

    trond56 and Alex,

    Just got back from Silver Summit in Spokane. Spoke to management of MGN (Mines Management)and RVM (Revett).

    It will be 5 years before MGN’s Montanore and RVM’s Rock Creek go into production and that is assuming all permits get approved and no new lawsuits and no delays of any other kind, etc. So, FYI.

    I own both – small positions. The deposits are there but timing?

  27. rose

    Dear Aaron,

    Thank you very much for your quick reply. It really helped me think out a reasonable plan of action – starting with: CALM DOWN ๐Ÿ™‚

    With very kindest regards,

    Rose

  28. Aaron

    Rose, following Gary itself is probably the best plan, but these blogs offer some great side help. LOTS of knowledgable members here.

  29. Shalom Bernanke

    Aaron,

    Right. There will be days when the dollar and metals go the same direction, and others where they diverge. I’ll keep reminding people that watching the dollar index is not giving them an edge, at least with the PM’s. ๐Ÿ™‚

  30. aklaunch

    This is from the money flows section of the WSJ.

    Among stocks that are up today, these have the largest outflow of money. Figures are updated every 15 minutes between 9:50 a.m. and 5:45 p.m., eastern time Money flows are calculated as the dollar value of composite uptick trades minus the dollar value of downtick trades. The up/down ratio reflects the value of uptick trades relative to the value of downtick trades. Money flow, uptick and downtick volume are in millions of US dollars. Percent change is calculated from the prior day 4 p.m., eastern time, closing price.

    Regarding BOW and SOS can anyone here translate this into english for me in a one or two liner please.

    Thank you,

    …..

  31. MrMiyagi

    sophia,
    When you are on the Premium website at any of the daily reports, go to the bottom where you would enter a comment and just above that space it says “You are logged in as “. Click on your name and put the “nickname” as whatever you want it to appear and just below that pick the name you want displayed in the drop down menu.

  32. MrMiyagi

    BOW/SOS money flow.
    I’ll try to explain this and make it simple.

    SMT stock opens at 10$ and 1000 orders buy it at 10$. Then 5000 people buy it at 9$ then 2000 people buy it at 11$.
    Total money flow:
    Uptick 2000*11$ = 22000$
    Neutral 1000*10$ = 10000$
    Downtick 5000*9$ = 45000$

    Stock closes up at 11$ from 10$ opening price and low price was 9$.

    Uptick 22000$ plus Downtick (-45000$) equals -23000 and since the price ended up this is a negative number giving you Selling on Strength.

    This is a simplified version of it but what it is telling you is that although the price went up, more shares traded hands when it was going down, less shares were traded when it was going up.

    If you add the numbers on the BOW?SOS page, Tick Up – Tick Down = Money flow.

  33. Driver

    Fulford (conspiracy theory? – maybe):

    “The highly secretive “trading platforms” used by the self-appointed rulers of the world have been shut down in preparation for the revamping of the global financial system, according to sources in the CIA and in Japanese military intelligence. This shut down took place earlier than the previously announced date of November 11, 2011 (11/11/11) in order to prevent any possible sabotage by the beneficiaries of the old system, the sources say.”

  34. St. Deluise

    i keep telling myself i will stop watching /dx (since i don’t trade it) yet repeatedly allow it to confirmation bias my opinion on what i actually trade.

    gold in particular- when the asians or europeans buy it i doubt they give much of a hoot what the dollar is doing vs. say the yen devaluing or italy hinting they’re about to implode.

    i’m still not 100% on this breakout but convinced enough to buy it. if it fails i’m out ~3% but then at least i know with a very high certainty it’s headed to test its lows.

  35. Danno

    I’m 100% long gold & silver right now but my current bearish price target for gold is the 200 ma minimum, and $1,375 maximum. $GOLD just completed what looks to me like a perfect bearish Rising Wedge and GLD had a perfect bearish Pennant.

    What we may be experiencing now is a sharp ‘Pullback’ or ‘Throwback’ to the broken trend line. This positive price action could be over within as little as 5 more trading days.

    Successful bearish Pennants lead to an average decline of -19%.

    http://thepatternsite.com/pennants.html

    Pennants are the workhorses of the day trader. They perform an invaluable service by marking the midway point in a move.

    This indicates to me the dollar will be going a lot higher (after it finally puts in a low). We can see the problems in Europe are going to take weeks or months to climax. Gary’s initial D Wave price target of (I forget exactly) 1450 ish is still firmly in my mind. I listened to his audio interview 4 times.

    My Notes on GLD
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p30797345213&a=246887053

    Of course, as always, I could be all wrong. Usually am. Change my mind like I change my socks (after it’s way too late!) As always, just chatting. I have no idea what’s gonna happen! whoo-hoo!! All aboard the crazy train!

  36. gideon

    a word of caution. All og gold;s 2nd waves have taken the form of A down B up andf C down. So far I count A down from 1924 to 1535 and B up in progress. B should get to the top of the channel line which is also about at the 50day MA at 1750ish, but then a C wave is to be expected. Thus, there is some room to the upside, but I very much doubt this is the real deal. The rather anemic volume would also support this.

  37. St. Deluise

    i’m seeing 1730 as the next target (1597 hourly sma & 32.8%)

    http://i44.tinypic.com/211jx47.png

    also would be a backtest to the wedge breaking that danno mentioned (but at a higher price?)

    agree that from there either a massive amount of buying would have to come in or a lot of time will need to pass for these MAs to drop sufficiently. the move this morning is still sort of a head scratcher since it, as far as i can tell, truly arrived out of nowhere. surprises, bull market, etc.

  38. Gary

    St. D,
    The market decided that gold had indeed put in a daily cycle low and then got busy doing what it does during the initial move out of a cycle low.

    I warned yesterday that this could happen, and initiated opening positions in case it did.

  39. William Wallace

    St D,

    The move this morning was carried out by big money within minutes, buying begets buying. If gold is to reverse it will be due to the exact opposite, hard drop within minutes, selling begets selling.

  40. William Wallace

    I love when gold trades like it is tonight, back to normal for now, nice slow grind…my head isn’t spinning. Looking to take of the futures long at the 50sma, see if it’s going to give gold a bit of a hard time.

  41. William Wallace

    Gary,

    I disagreed when you said that gold was coiling (along with silver) and said it was flagging, was your “not a coil” my payback? Don’t make me get DG! LoL ๐Ÿ™‚

  42. Driver

    Add to Fulford post above:

    “According to them, over 100 countries have now subscribed to the new system. Mass arrests of people linked to the old system are supposed to begin by November 15, they say.”

  43. Bill

    Gary, for the life of me I still think cycles are messed up, but despite that you somehow use them and make great calls. Well done.

  44. Danno

    The question in my mind is, even if my goofy, pennant/rising wedge ‘pullback’ theory is correct… at what point do you declare a pullback to no longer be a pullback, but a new trend? Hmm…

    I think I will watch the dollar for clues. If I see any signs of the dollar bottoming and that happens on coincide with gold weakness near or above the broken trendline then I will lighten up my PM long positions. May not short this time though. Then again, crazy is as crazy does!

  45. St. Deluise

    haha i know it seems just like some arbitrary number but it’s the next fibonacci prime number beyond 233

    i essentially only use the 89/233/1597.

    it being a fib number isn’t really as significant as it being a prime number imo. best way to get a pure discretized interval, in lieu of something like 100 which could be twice 50, or half 200, or 10x 20..

    anyway i am a crazy person, so

  46. High 5

    “There seems to be a misunderstanding in the gold market that when you buy or sell shares of GLD you are putting pressure on the price of gold. That selling shares of GLD into the exchange is somehow analogous to selling physical into the marketplace. Or that buying shares of GLD is somehow, somewhere down the chain, removing physical gold from the marketplace.”

    “We often look at apparent correlation and assume a certain cause and effect. GLD is designed to track the price of gold. It is not actively managed to track the price of gold. Instead, it does so through opportunities that arise whenever it doesn’t. Imagine GLD as a big lump of gold just sitting there in Town Square. The price of gold is “discovered” elsewhere and shares in this big lump just trade based on that elsewhere-discovered price. If the share price is too high, then an opportunity exists to sell your share and buy “gold” elsewhere. Likewise, if it is too low, there is an opportunity to sell elsewhere and buy into this lump on display.”

    “Occasionally, lately, someone comes along and shaves a chunk off of the lump, reducing its overall size. And financial reporters and analysts everywhere are struggling to correlate the price of gold and the GLD holdings with some semblance of cause and effect:”

    The above is from a great piece on GLD from FOFOA:

    http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/01/who-is-draining-gld.html

  47. Poly

    Global Quantitative Easing 1 is here, currencies will fluctuate amongst themselves while they all go down vs tangible assets. Gold spiking across all fiat. Gold-Dollar decoupling is accelerating.

  48. wingwalker

    Agreed Poly.
    Looks like Europe has decided that inflating away the debt problem will be the answer. Should strengthen $ but probably won’t in short to medium term (that will happen later I guess when balance of payments start to matter again).
    Anyway, looks like Gold knows this and will strengthen vs all currencies. So I’ll ride this IT with gold and some silver. Was going to use GDX but feel the weight of equity mkt could hinder it.
    We’ll see.

  49. Aaron

    Euro summit ended, yet recycling old rumors seems to keep the Euro afloat. I think its time is up. Sooner than later, it will head down.

  50. ver

    Aaron:

    I’ve been watching and waiting with you. I think there’s one more push up for stocks and the euro to tag/breach their 200-day SMAs and draw in everyone who thinks we’ve come past the point of breakdown.

    Cycle timing dictates an imminent move into a half-cycle low while the dollar moves out of it’s cycle low.

    $BPSPX is now nearly at the same level as the SPX top in July (may even exceed it after today’s action).

    230M SoS on SPY today, the second or third in a week.

    I wish I wasn’t so bad at shorting.

  51. St. Deluise

    got a weak buy signal for /es towards the end, target 1252.75 stop 1226.5. short signal did end up hitting this morning at 1220.

    if they run it straight to the 233 day (or 200, etc- around 1265) in the next few days that would be very bearish imo since there we don’t have the buy volume to confirm that move right now. will try another short then.

    BUT, and this is just me thinking aloud, if i were were a federal reserve chairman i would wait for price to get just below it, then on the first decent down day announce some sort of big new operation over the weekend and watch the sparks fly monday morning. getting price above that 200, even via cheating, would be huge.

    otherwise/tangetially gold rally still looks good. definitely more buyers today at least.

  52. KAL

    Hey, all. When is AGQ going 3x? I am holding SLV and GDX in my trading account, thinking of shedding SLV and GDX in my IRA’s for AGQ and NUGT. But, 3x ETF on silver sounds death-wishy. Any thoughts from the wise ones who inhabit this place?

  53. KAL

    I guess I was hoping for a 2x ETF, like they had, back in like, 2010? Haha. I guess soon we’ll have 4x if they can figure out a way to put that through.

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