58 thoughts on “PORTFOLIO CHANGE

  1. Danno

    This is such a tricky one to call IMO.

    Sprinkled on a few silver puts this morning, but mainly to protect a core long position. If we see any sudden downside in gold I feel it may be rather limited and the short opportunity is just not juicy enough to go crazy.

  2. St. Deluise

    i suspect we’re about to see a 2nd swing low on the dollar today/tomorrow at 76.255.

    not sure how long it will hold though. longer than the last one, i think. much much higher buy divergence this time.

  3. Michael

    SB, thanks for posting your trades in real time and being so straight forward about winners and losers… it is a tremendous assistance to the traders that read this blog…

  4. Keys

    Nibbled some more today…going Turkey with a building position…With the parabolic move behind us, and the fundie support gaining almost weekly, I don’t want to be naked with dollars. Downside is that I can suffer a moderate drawdown, but the end game is all the same. Ah well back to losing money.:)

  5. coolkevs

    warning! mclellan oscillator (at least the one on thinkorswim) is showing its highest overbought level for 2011!!!!
    if anyone involved in the major indices – sell or wait for a pullback to enter!

  6. Poly

    If gold had already printed a DCL and ICL, it would be going gangbusters with this extreme dollar weakness. Just my opinion.

  7. Keys

    Well I do have to say I did some interesting reading last week on the projected US budget. They anticipate growing spending up to
    4+ trillion in a couple years from the present 3+ trillion..90% of exp are med/SS/war/int…they assume US borrowing rates will stay at these levels for the next 5 years…and get this they expect the deficit to be cut in half in 5 years. How? They expect individual taxes to double over the next 5 years.

    In best case the debt will be 20 trillion in 5 years…probably closer to 25…

    Interesting tug a war taking place. This gold bull is a real bastard!

  8. St. Deluise

    so if my peabrain whackadoodle plan is correct,

    /es tops here, corrects for a week, then it takes 4-5 weeks to come back to meet the 233 day at around these prices.

  9. MrMiyagi

    I don;t get the same levels for NYMO on stockcharts.com. It’s not overly-overbought and definitely not the top of the year. NYAD/NYADV are creeping up there as well.

  10. aklaunch

    Will be interesting to see the dollars reaction to dipping it toe’s into the 200 dma. at about the same time the SPY bonks it head against the 200 dma.

    The GLD ETF. is head locked in its trend line.


    SLV is showing a text book pennant continuation pattern.


    I am on the team of a dollar rally. Just see a bit more down side first. Which line will hold it is the million dollar question?


  11. LowTax

    Big SPY Sos today as well as tagging of the upper trandlines on big megaphone patterns for all the big indexes. That HAS to mean the markets will at least pause for a mid-cycle low right? 🙂

  12. Shalom Bernanke

    I didn’t get an impulse move lower in SSO (2-3 bars lower on the half-hour chart), but since hit my stop level, covered some anyway. Covered 1/3, kept 2/3.

    Have a good evening all.

  13. Danno

    UUP printed another one of those big, fat red candles I was screaming about the other day. The whole body of the red candle completely engulfs the solid red candle from Friday.

    I took that as a potential sign UUP might fall further so bought a few UUP puts. Just experimenting really. I know UUP is not the same as $USD.

  14. Danno

    I didn’t use much money with UUP puts. Just enough to partly offset any losses I might encounter with the protective SLV puts I bought this morning.

  15. Jayhawk

    Doc’s line is “gold meanders out of intermediate cycle lows”. Oil comprises of 23% of the $CRB index and it’s smashed through the weekly, intermediate trendline, strongly indicating that commodities have bottomed…$DXY fell out of a H&S and closed under a key pivot today. Miners seem to have put in double bottoms or close enough double bottoms with strong action off that new low. I’m leaning towards the miners having their bottoms in.

  16. Bill

    For me, $GOLD is still on a sell signal as it’s still below it’s 50dd EMA.

    On the 60 min chart, the $XEU is showing neg divergence in the RSI(14) and MACD (I use PPO).

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Euro turn down soon, thus the dollar up, thus gold still consolidating a bit longer.

  17. Danno

    I’m guessing the sloppy little $USD H&S should complete its downside journey fairly soon, then back to the races. Enough time for $GOLD to complete a pullback (pullback UP in the case) to test its broken rising wedge trendline. Those pullbacks normally take 10 days. Today was day 5.

    5 year $HUI chart looks sickly IMO, like it’s slumping over to the right and ready to barf beans.

  18. Bill

    I believe it’s important to keep a watchful eye on gold, due to seasonality. I thought that investment demand eclipsed jewelry demand, but Gary set me straight, so as long as we’re now in this wedding/ceremony demand season for gold, I think it could go up at any time.

  19. Blindweb

    Been holding my PM position strong under the assumption Europe will come out with a stop-gap plan right around the time the US budget problems come back next month.

    Also under the assumption that while Bernanke may be a systemic moron, like most of the US, he’s clever. He’s able to think exactly one linear step ahead, from 2008 until now, or from the great depression to now. He’s probably got a whole list of backdoor options not to let those situations happen again. Now any problems outside those, he’s screwed; and we’re screwed.

  20. Fast trader

    Inter-Market from C3X which gava advance signals on Oct 2 about the impending rally in risk as the FX portfolio from C3X clocks over 2000 pips in a difficult month

    Inter-Market analysis

    The performance comes after Sept where the performance was an incredible 3000 pips.

    Their latest analysis is UP

  21. Bill

    What’s causing the $SPX to rise?

    Doesn’t look like short covering to me, though am not sure. No QE3 yet. Any ideas on what’s causing this?

  22. Gary

    That one is easy. The collapsing dollar. If Ben is flooding the world with money it has to land on something. Stocks got up badly this summer and money is flooding back into that sector.

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