The 75 week moving average has been a very clear dividing line between bull and bear markets for the last couple of decades.
The S&P is on the verge of running in to that roadblock soon.
It’s possible that the S&P could penetrate this level briefly, and possibly even rally back to the 200 day moving average (about 1250) before the bear market resumes. That being said I doubt the market will be able to penetrate this major resistance level on the first try, and it may even end up capping this bear market rally.
We already have three warning signs that popped up today that should make bulls wary. More in tonight’s report…
.
Darn I didn’t beat Eamonn
St. D,
I’d like to see those charts if you don’t mind. I have a few here that are super bullish for miners, gold and silver that I can share. I’m looking for a legit bear view. Thanks
Did the Risk Rally Surprise you? INTERMARKET INSIGHTS
I use the ‘Slow Stochastics’ set to 5,3 on StockCharts to help judge whether a market is overbought or oversold. This is not the default setting but a setting that is very close to what that old, old site Clearstation uses. Course Stochastics alone is not much use. It’s just one of many things to look for. In this situation I see the indicator cresting and rolling over, at the same time that the MACD Histogram has finally made a baby attempt at flipping into positive territory after a severe period below zero. I seriously doubt the very first attempt to stay above the zero line will hold. Once again I refer to late August 2008. Same basic setup. Maybe not the best time to short silver, but maybe not the very best time to go long either. Just IMHO. I am certainly no TA expert so buyer beware.
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These goofy Yahoo Finance videos are often just entertainment, but this one was actually not bad…
“Sell Everything Except the U.S. Dollar: Technical Strategist”
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/sell-everything-except-u-dollar-technical-strategist-174411561.html#more-7286
Poly
You might be right.
Patients
Danno,
are you selling this a.m.? I’m going to short a protion of my position against my long. I’m going to trade them as they rise and fall.
The 75 week MA is close enough to the 20 month ema that I use. I use the 20 and 50 ema on all time frames and it’s amazing how many others do -may as well look at the same thing as the big institutions!!
Bamster,
I am shorting against my long position too. I still have a core long position in silver. I’m tempted to sell it but I probably won’t. That would be going 100% short and I don’t think it’s a good idea to be 100% long or 100% short in uncertain conditions.
grimweasel,
The 20 MA is also the Bollinger Band midline. It can be kind of a big deal sometimes.
Danno
Don’t say I didn’t warn you yesterday about ZSL. Could be a whole different ball game today.
I expected one more significant up day in silver before the turn (if the turn comes). A rise in price today would not surprise me. I got into my ‘short’ position early on purpose. I did not want to miss the 1st (potential) surge down because I know I would not have gone short after that. It would have been too late.
Gold could hit a brick wall around 1690-1695. That’s the trend line (down trend line) and also the 20MA. But who knows. I guess we’ll see.
.
I think all eyes should be on the dollar here, if we trend lower for a few more days it will start to make the dollar left translated. I believe the peak came on Day 11, Today will be day 19.
Please correct me if I’m wrong here
.
Indecision candles were all over the market today. Worldwide! Why does an indecision candle always have to be bearish. $SPX candle looks like the bulls won. Could it be that traders were hesitant to jump into any positions before Slovakia’s vote. I think so. I follow many traders on Twitter and they were slow with “no action just waiting” kind of day. I think the market has made its decision this AM. Dollar has put in a reversal (H&S Top) and we could be on day 10 in an extremely left translated cycle. EUR/USD put in an H&S bottom. Gold and silver are breaking out. HUI hit support the other day and rocketed up. Fed talk could be the make or break. I’ll be watching closely today. GL
Few Bullish charts-HUI
http://www.screencast.com/t/8EhUG6i11ri
SLV Daily
http://www.screencast.com/t/knsz9JckSaO
SLV Weekly
http://www.screencast.com/t/osLaF98pl5
I’m staying long my miners and looking to add to SSO short over the next day or two, including some this morning, perhaps around 10 am.
.
SB,
Using SSO as a short, or shorting SSO?
Forgot the $GOLD chart
http://www.screencast.com/t/HJazJaTQmm
Danno,
Shorting SSO. Started with small position at the close yesterday and will look to add some today and maybe more over the rest of the week.
This trade is not a long term play like the miners, and I expect to hold for only 1-2 weeks, give or take a few days.
SB, just curious if your strategy has changed a bit now with your SSO short. You are starting to hedge your miner longs… The reason I ask, is because I have been long miners and am using SPY puts and UUP calls to hedge during the latest puke…. on that note, do you not think that this rally could run into Nov or even early Dec?
SB
Miners looking good this am. Especially GPL. Might be in the 3’s again.
Gold is about to break back out of the c-wave channel and regain the 75sma and 20sma. Should be a smooth push to the 50sma above at 1755. Long gold futures.
Its do or die time for gold right here.
All investors should be aware of the way that all risk assets are closely correlated. And the barometer of risk sentiment is the EUR/USD cross (proxy for the Dollar index). Up to last week, most large investors were short, in expectation of recession & imminent EURO breakup. Those expectations have receded, so there is a lot of short covering going on.
EUR/USD is looking very comfortable above 1.37. I doubt we will see a turnaround in sentiment until that exchange rate approaches 1.39 or so. (probably a couple of days). Until then, markets generally and commodities will likely continue to rally. Shorts beware!!
Beware of my shorts!
Michael,
I don’t nearly as much conviction on the SSO short so it’s not necessarily to hedge my long miners, but I suppose you could look at it that way.
Two different trades to me, as my expected hold times are very different. It’s even possible I don’t add to my token SSO short, but it is my intention to short into spikes for the near future. Position size and expected volatility will be nothing close to my long term miner trade.
As far as Nov-Dec for miners, I have no idea and remain unconcerned. If they puke out I’ll be a buyer, if they rally I’ll continue to hold. I’m looking way past that time frame.
If I get spikes in the S&P to add to short SSO, my total risk to accounts will not exceed 1%.
SB, thanks for your input.. I am doing the same… adding to shorts into spikes and adding to my basket of miners during sell-offs… enjoy following your posts.. thanks for sharing your wisdom… all the best..
SB,
What are the advantages of shorting SSO over buying SDS or put options of S&P? Are shorts more profitable? Less risky? This is not criticism, I’m just curious about what you think about the pros/cons of differing strategies.
Thanks
wav ridah,
/gc 60 min http://i54.tinypic.com/2nvxlzq.png
the subgraph is effective volume which is essentially the sum of the volume on green bars minus the sum on red, normalized to the high/low/closes. it’s easily googlable.
the *problem* is, as i am finding this morning, that short-term price can do what it wants.
but long term an asset that is not being bought cannot rise. and right now at 1683.1 there is less effective money in gold than there was at the crash low at 1535.
that said ready to eat my crow this morning. if gold can clear 1695 (where my buy stop now is) i would guess we’re headed to 1726. if it keeps going up from there i concede defeat entirely!
SPY looking like a good short soon enough but i’m not sure this next little dip (starting today?) will be it. really want to see it hit that 200 day first!
Great Call Gary and Great profits!
WW,
what is the minimum time frame for gold to hold above the SMA’s for you to consider them regained? So to speak… It kinda looks like it’s bumping its head on them here…
Thanks.
/D
Russell,
I’ve seen the obvious play in these leveraged etfs not work out to many times, even thought the trader picked the right direction. If the long and short leveraged etfs both deflate, when the SDS should go up, I’d just as soon have that wind at my back as well.
Short term speculators are more inclined to sell their long (SSO), while bearish bets might or might not be strong enough to push up SDS. In quiet markets either vehicle should work (SSO short, or SDS long), but when dislocations occur, I’d rather be short the leveraged etfs.
Not to mention they’re only derivatives, and if the underwriting firm goes belly up it could be a huge lotto ticket. 🙂
Not betting on that, but it’s an added benefit.
Haggerty,
I think the dollar topped on day 13, leaving it some room left to find its bottom.
WW,
also, looking at a daily chart, is this what you mean by swooping 10 DMA? I’m trying to picture it, and it sure looks like it’s swooping now, on the way up again.
So, would I be right to interpret WW-swoopism as follows: If gold holds above 10DMA it’s bullish, if it doesn’t hold we’re probably looking at a new low?
Thankful for your input.
Dubbelito
got a SPY system buy this morning target 121.7 stop 119.8
i expect this to fail. thus 119.8 is my short term reversal number, which should trigger on a gap fill.
gold seems to have it backwards today. someone remind it that it should sell off overnight and ramp on the open, not the other way around.
Sold right after open. Booked profits this morning. Thank you Gary!
Gold is having an extremely hard time regaining the 75sma on a daily. Got rejected a few times already over the last few days.
following upro down yesterday worked–out now.
i would be leary of shorting broads. JMO
Adding to SPXU at 75sma on a weekly.
SB,
Thanks, and you get the decay of time and possibly volatility favoring your side as well. I’ve had options that did as you suggested. They lost value despite the underlying move was in my direction. They were not able to move faster than the decay.
Appreciate your response.
Next level looking to add to SPXU 75sma on a daily at SPX 1220
DUBB,
You got it. A break above the 75sma daily for gold is bullish and a break below the 10sma is bearish.
I’m thinking this market is just going higher; probably means it is time for it to turn.
Dubb,
This swoop should push gold back above the 75sma, if gold can’t regain the 75sma the swoop will fail and gold will lose the 10sma and it is almost certain gold will see new lows.
Poly,
Are you still planning to short S&P. If yes, at what level.
when SPY opened i saw a market buy for like 1.3+ million shares. at the time i thought “what sort of knucklehead would do that?!”
seemingly they’re right on thus far.. this rally in stocks has been one for the books. the people want, nay, NEED stocks! at any price, just hand em over, NOW!
still waiting for 119.8.. will get short if that taps before 121.7!
The market tagged the 75 week moving average off a new low within 2 weeks…In 2008 it took 10weeks…we may see a possible end to this bear market rally sooner then later and a topped out left translated daily cycle.
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WW,
So for those of us struggling with learning all the terminology, what does your last post mean? Are we going higher or lower?
Thank you for the education.
Elaine
Elaine,
Gary laid out in last night’s report basically what I just said.
WW, looks like your call that money would be moving from gold to equities was prophetic… good call…yes, very fast rally up to 75sma… makes you wonder if it can hold this?
another thing to consider it that the Russell 2000 is lagging the rally and is still 4.5% below it’s 75sma
If silver is going to stall this is right about where it would happen IMO.
Added a bit to my SSO short a moment ago, although I’m not too excited about the trade.
Michael,
I wouldn’t be suprised to see this market give everything back by days end.
SPY 2 attempts at 121.50$ were turned back. Don’t know what it means but it was rocketing before it hit that roadblock.
WW, you may be right about giving it all back.
Thinking about UUP again…
Miyagi,
Thats the 75 week moving average on SPX resistance.
nearly back to zero in that gold short again. getting pretty tired of the whipsaw though.
rooting against stocks is getting pretty fun in the interim. i gotta assume we’re running low on buyers by now. maybe? sheesh.
also fun fact: 75 weeks = 375 days which is pretty close to the 377 day which is a fib number.
i don’t know, makes more sense to me when i frame it that way. otherwise i’m just like “where on earth did 75 come from?”
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WW,
So the question remains, will it succeed on the third attempt? If not, it may fall a ways.
St D,
Yup, the 75 day moving avergae is actually right there with a Fib level.
Miyagi,
It may not fail the third time because the 75sma on a daily SPX at 1220ish has not been tagged yet.
one has to keep in mind GANN’s comparison with 2008 and his target of 1227 for this rally which would be just above the 200dma… however, it is likely we get a pullback and then a move higher..
Michael,
The 200 day SMA is at 1276..
Michael,
1227 is right above the 75 day moving average.
I expect we will see a pullback to to atleast the 50sma if not the 20before pushing higher.
There’s 2 recent gap ups now, this morning and Monday morning.
thanks, I meant the 75sma
Miyagi,
A pullback to the 20 or even the 50sma in SPX will fill both gaps.
Took a very small lottery play on some puts on the SPY
Europe got plan to fix bank problems….
well there’s SPY 121.7. i don’t know why i bothered coming up with this system if i’m not going to take the trades!
anyway bull is intact for now.. lord knows it should be tanking but not touching the short side. just stupid relentless.
Does the plan involve more digital fiat? 🙂
Once the dollar puts in its cycle low then stocks will turn, but not until. The more stretched they become in the meantime the harder they will snap back once the turn occurs.
There are several gaps lower that need to fill once that correction begins.
what if Greece is saved?
Greece can’t be saved. You can’t cure an unserviceable debt problem with more debt. You can throw more money down a rat hole and temporarily put a Band-Aid on the problem, but that won’t cure anything.
All Germany is doing is weakening itself by continuing to bail out the defaulting PIIGS.
Gary,
You’re still thinking SPX in the sub 1000 range or is it in tonight’s report..
By the next 4 year cycle low certainly below 1000. Probably below 666.
Whoa, S&P 666! Back to early 2009 when the 401K becomes 101K. Except this time I will be in cash.
I am going to predict another 100 bless rating on gold for Fridays COT. Silver should be right up there as well.
OI is falling in gold while the price is rising. Bankers covering their shorts. I believe this is do upcoming position limits in the Dodd – Frank legislation. In silver commercials covered lots of shorts and the small specs are non existent. You guys shorting gold and silver have guts. Not something I would try…oh yeah I am still long both Gold and Silver.
Shorting gold or silver is just asking to have your head handed to you.
Shorting the stock market based on yesterday’s SoS and considering that the stock market is bumping right up against the 75 week moving average is still a game for traders with stainless steel balls.
If you think you’re going to pick an exact top in a bear market rally you’re kidding yourself. Selling into bear market rallies is only successful if you can take a position and then hold through the inevitable draw down until the bear market forces rescue your trade.
Even in bear markets, and probably especially in bear markets, selling short is a very tough way to make money.
Gary – was this bear market even more difficult than the 2008/2009 to make money? i.e. even more whipsawing now than 2008? Or was the 2008/2009 bear market (before QE 1 and 2) behaving more like a “normal” bear market, have bear market rallies and follow the cycles more?
This has been one of the toughest markets I have ever traded.
LOL…stainless steel balls!
Shorting gold right now is going to get them shinny nuts dull.
FOMC minutes in 5 min.
Gary
That really concerns me what you said about the 4 yr cycle low due in stocks. When is that due ballpark? End of 2012ish?
What concerns me is where will the HUI be?
That’s the million dollar question I guess, but the sell off should be nothing like the one we saw in 08 right? that was a combination of the panic and the 8 year cycle low in stocks right?
agree that selling short anything here is basically nuts, but gold has been a heck of a lot weaker on average.
and it’s still above its 200 day.
stocks still below.
playing the odds that that’s where they’re both headed. if SPY tanks this afternoon i think it should be viewed as a buying opportunity. if gold tanks, i would be a very worried long.
I meant 8 yr cycle low for gold
Gold will whipsaw ya nuts of between the 10sma and 75sma.
gold has basically already whipped my nuts clean off
waiting for this to friggin turn so i can buy some robotic ones or something
Gary – thanks. So this bear is even more difficult than the previous one.
Does the weekly chart of TLT give the stock market bears pause?
UUP’s penetration of the 200MA before a (potential) golden cross is not nearly as surprising as UUP’s penetration of the 200MA *after* the golden cross of 09/05/08.
Everyone then must have thought, “This is a failed golden cross.” Oh, how wrong they were.
St. D,
LOL…try the stainless steal ones that Gary recommends!
@Danno
The one thing that is not similar to 2008 is that the US treasuries are already insanely overbought.
Do you think they will become even more insanely overbought from here out?
Gary or anybody – I am still trying to understand if gold miners are more influenced by gold or by the stock market?
Perhaps there is no clean cut answers.
Greenspansconscience,
The 10 YR note seems insanely low at 2.24% but bond rates could drop another 50%. This could become Japan. Who knows. I’ve learned almost anything is possible, especially in shorter time frames. The minute you completely rule out a scenario you are left unprotected. You just never know. You can only guess at the odds. Odds say eventually rates will have to go through the roof, but that doesn’t mean they can’t go even lower first.
No doubt on the daily chart TLT is due for a bounce, which could send stock and PMs much lower in the short run.
It’s just I believe the weekly chart looks constructive for stocks at least in the medium term (month or two?), especially if the weekly MACD crosses negative.
That is a black candle on GLD.
I’m gonna heed Gary’s advice and not add to my SSO short, at least not today unless stocks pullback, which is looking unlikely.
HEK posted few days ago—-said water may be better tha gold. it has been.
Greenspansconscience,
I rarely look at weekly charts.
Maybe that’s why I’m a smashing success? d’oh!
internals too strong on Broad market for me to try shorting.
Never like black candles, as 99% of the time you will get a lower close at some point in the future. But I put less creedance on the etf charts.
Gld also put in a black candle on the weekly chart last week. Definitely not a bullish sign, that’s for sure.
a nice plop into the close for stocks would do wonders to keep the short interest up.
black candles during last year’s big C-wave rally:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&st=2010-07-26&en=2010-10-18&id=p70515527831
I think it depends on how the conditions are when the candle appears.
TA is more like Jazz than sheet music. If it were sheet music everybody would be rich.
Nice analogy, Danno! (jazz v. sheet music . . .)
People are actually chanting outside Paulson’s house.
“He’s one of those billionaire hedge-fund guys who bet on the meltdown of the mortgage [market] and won big,” Vilma Nelson, a 60-year-old Bronx resident, said of Mr. Paulson. “He’s the type of person we’re against.”
Wow.
I still can’t get over how the market moves on the chimera of salvation in Europe.
UUP is actually sitting on its 200MA while PMs are being halted under their 20’s and black candles are popping up all over. This could be a a huge day you guys.
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Danno,
Are you referring to the Occupy Wall Street protesters, outside Paulson’s house?
Paulson has had a tough year. First he lost 50% in his biggest fund, now protesters want to burn his house down!
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Now if the market corrects hard being it has stretched so far so fast, will it cause a bit of panic and send investors running into gold, pushing gold above the 75sma finally, letting it run free until it wacks its head on the 50…or will the strong dollar drill gold below the 10sma and kill it.
Danno,
I bet you’re right. I think we’re all going to see things we never thought we would.
Gold has shown no ability to fight a rising dollar lately, and it hasn’t responded very strongly during this violent correction, so I doubt gold will all of a sudden be viewed as a safe haven trade here.
Gold is now right translated so presumably gold will hold above $1535 at it’s next cycle low which is due in the next 7-12 days.
Here come the sellers. If we stay weak today, I can then add to short SSO into any morning spike or gap higher tomorrow.
Gold will follow the market as folks liquidate…we are in dangerous territory…
Couldn’t help myself added a little more to short. 2% total portfolio risk.
weak 10 year auction
UUP is just sitting on the 200MA like it’s sitting on a wooden saw horse. Not too concerned about anything. Just hanging out.
well i hope the equity bears are enjoying their 15 minutes of fame but to paraphrase chuck bronson, “this ain’t over”
as usual we’ll have to wait until 3 am to see what gold wants to do. holding short steady as she goes.
People are actually chanting outside Paulson’s house…
“He’s one of those billionaire hedge-fund guys who bet on the meltdown of the mortgage [market] and won big,” Vilma Nelson, a 60-year-old Bronx resident, said of Mr. Paulson. “He’s the type of person we’re against.”
Wow.
Yeah. I’m not into their movement. I’ll just bet no one who was disgusted when Paulson kneeled before Pelosi thought they’d see the day.
Danno,
just to be clear:
There’s two of them.
John Paulson the one being protested
&
Hank “Bended Knee” Paulson (former GS)
Feel,
That’s right! Whoops. Oh well. I guess the image of the crooked guy sounded better.
Steady As She Goes – Shellac
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bkyTK9tRgHs&feature=related
Holding Slv steady as she goes. EXK SLW ftw.
I had recently forgotten one of my basic premises: There will be no true deflation ever; well until the collapse after hyperinflation at least. The central bankers learned their lesson after 2008. Deflation will only come when they are forced. We’re a long way from the public forcing discipline. They even have 20% or so to work with in oil prices. That’s not to say the stock market won’t fall even in the face of low inflation.
European banks to liquidate assets, including US stocks.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/market-slumps-after-european-banks-admit-they-cantwont-raise-capital-will-proceed-asset-liquida?
Danno,
John Paulson was a classmate of mine at Harvard. He’s a decent chap. He was right about mortgages and gold and dead wrong on financials and the stock market.
The protesters walked right by George Soros’ place and not a peep.
Something fishy there. Big Time.
WOW—Someone living in Big Sky Country went to Harvard!
Well 4 years in the Army and the GI Bill helped a lot. Tuiton was only $3,300 a year back then.
tuition at MSU was $90 a quarter, i think. I was one year late for GI Bill. Went to service after college.
Hi Sandy,
I already have one short position on since around the 1,230 level, most of those gains have been given back, but still in the black.
I’m assessing the merit of a 2nd position at this point as the SPY cycles are rather ambiguous. I want to avoid trading with my short bias, as much as possible.
I’m also preserving capital for gold, we’re getting close I believe, but still some time left.
Thanks Poly. Your calls & conviction has been amazing.
WOW! Even perma-cheerleader James Turk saying gold/silver *may* go down!!
>>>James Turk<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
I am very encouraged by what gold and silver are doing here. Both metals are building up support after the big hit they took three weeks ago. I don’t think we are out of the woods just yet as we may need more backing and filling. A retest of $1,600 on gold and $30 for silver may well be in the cards.
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/10/12_James_Turk_-_More_Bank_Collapses_to_Cause_Gold_%26_Silver_Spike.html
2 for 1 Split for AGQ at the open if anybody cares.
Never to see >$300 again…
.
SF Giants Fan – Never is a long time….
SF Gaints:
Do you know what happens if you held AGQ on Monday and Sold on Tuesday or Wednesday?
Since the record date is Monday’s close, but you don’t own them on 10/13, how is the split handled?
Thank you!
.
Alex in Montana,
George Soros is funding these protests. He backed Obama and this is to promote the class warfare for Obama. He also paid and promoted the riots in Europe. It’s all part of his master progressive movement plan. One world.
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I used to like the name Bridget…ie..for a girl…not any more..be careful this clip will make you wet your pants. Silly and Scary at the same time.
http://youtu.be/XL8vGbhpbEs
Liquid,
Thanks for that link! Made my day… (Still chuckling here!)
The problems in Europe can be fixed, but not in a couple of months. So the odds are high there will be a few more panics in the markets before all the dust settles. What no talking head can tell you is when those panics might come. A panic could come in December, or a panic could come tomorrow. All the good news in the world today won’t stop a panic tomorrow. The 64 million dollar question is… are we sure more EU related panics will come before its over?
The answer has got to be, yes, more weeks of panic selling are bound to come. At least that is what the odds favor IMO.
Panic is an opportunity for leaders to grab power. They will embrace and even encourage fear if the situation can be managed to their ultimate advantage.
Farm girl
Silver would have to hit > $75ish for AGQ to hit $300 before the 2 for 1 split. So your right. it’s going to be a while.
NJ
Don’t have a clue. Just hope know one finds out the hard way.
It’s getting to the point that everything is rigged. Even the WSJ is cooking the books.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/oct/12/wall-street-journal-andrew-langhoff
How can you tell if a politician or pulbic official is lying?
If their lips move.
In some ways the 2011 chart of SLV is heathier than 2008, but in some ways the 2011 chart is weaker.
For example, in 2008 there were two large gaps down on 09/08 and 09/15. The 2nd gap was filled by 09/28.
Compare that to 2011. SLV just suffered 2 gaps down, but the 2nd gap is nowhere near being filled and SLV is already showing signs of rolling over.
Who knows what will happen. It’s just interesting and makes me wonder how many other traders have noticed. I would guess, a lot.
at ease,
You are 100% correct on that. The hypocrisy bell is ringing loud and clear.
at ease and Alex in Montana,
I have also read that Soros is now helping fund Occupy Wall Street, however he did not seed the discontent that’s coming to the surface so much as he’s trying to co-opt it after the fact. It’s a common tactic, to own both sides of the debate. Just look at our political system, where we all know it does not matter what side you vote for, you’re getting the same either way.
spy system sell on the open, target 118.7 stop 121.2
i’ll swing on it on the gap fill
holding gold short otherwise. ugly and looking uglier.
If we get a late morning spike in the S&P I’ll add to my SSO short.
And I don’t intend on covering the SSO for several days. With regard to miners, I’m just holding what I have and not adding any today. They could easily pull back a couple days after so many up days.
Gold’s daily cycle appears to have topped as expected (timing) with the dollar likely finding its low too.
I expected gold to break the $1,700 on this daily cycle to put in a convincing rally, but instead its rather bearish it has not.
In light of how far it was beaten down, the low sentiment and how quickly the dollar moved down, we could be in for a nice fall now.
I strongly caution silver and AGQ holders here to be very careful. I’m bracing for a $100-$150 gold fall here.
On the positive side, we’re getting closer to our ICL.
Gold failed miserably again to regain the 75sma on a daily after multiple attempts. I would not be suprised to see it lose the 10sma soon.
Poly,
Are you at the same cycle count as Gary with gold?
I expect that if gold loses the 10sma on a daily we will see new lows.
Thanks Poly. Really apreciate your input and almost giddy at the thought of finally getting `all in` at the ICL. It seems like I always threw a wrench in my own gears just before blast off, and have only caught partial moves. This should be really Enjoyable 🙂
$150 drop sounds good to me. personally need to see at least a maginal new low.
/es & /gc 1 hour http://i51.tinypic.com/16kvzbs.png
that link is why i much prefer my shorts to be gold shorts and my longs to be SPY longs (speaking of which if we can’t tag 118.7 before 121.2 that is a raging buy for me).
probably it for me today i’m not seeing much to do here. good luck everyone.
Rob,
No, I have the last ICL as July 1st and on week 15.
86,
Me too, let’s hope it’s still ahead of us. 🙂
I’m not certain, yet, of what to expect of the next IT cycle yet, much depends on what damage is done on the way down here. I would love to see a test of $1,500, that would have me getting very aggressive.
Poly,
The c-wave channel upper trendline has haulted gold three times in the last couple weeks…I think it is very likely the lower trendline of that channel will support its fall…lucky you its at $1500 🙂
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Poly—Thanks.
super,
Yes I’m always a bit concerned when a cycle runs short and it appears the oil cycle is short. That being said since oil is trading in tandem with stocks that would suggest that the stock market daily cycle is ready to roll over already.
That I’m not convinced of yet.
Gary,
Its still possible this daily cycle in stocks will not be left translated…and a tag of the 200 is still in the cards…right?
If this turns out not to be a left translated cycle in stocks the dollar is gonna be ripped.
Filing my nails, waiting for Gary to call the D-wave…
Slovakia just passed the ESFS bill.
Now Southern Europe can be saved.
I guess “risk on” will now be back.
Europe;
Try this.
Russell,
The dollar is now in the timing band for a daily cycle low. Once we get a swing it should be risk off for a while.
do you have any predictions about dollar cycle low ? are we bottoming now or its just a small correction
I’m sorry Gary. Sarcasm does not always translate on a blog. I was just making fun of the ESFS hype.
I’m expecting dollar up, stocks and gold down.
S&P holding on pretty strong here, in limbo between the 50 and 75 sma.
Miyagi,
The 50sma will suck it back down.
Slovakia news was probably baked in. They knew what the vote would be days ago.
I would like to see a bull flag form over the next 2 days and a bounce off the 20sma, prevent this cycle from being left translated and keep this bear market rally alive until it tags the 200sma.
WW,
Strangely, I’d like to see the opposite of that, a drop off to the 1100-1120 area, sort of to reset buying.
Miyagi,
I wouldn’t mind it being im short, but I dont think that will reset buying, we would be in a left translated cycle then and will drop like a pig in the mud.
pig. mud.
Sharp reversal, everyone is back from their liquor lunches.
Hurling empty champagne and caviar bottles at the protestors!!!!
It’s just that the dollar hasn’t made a cycle low yet. I’m going to go over what I would like to see before that bottom forms in tonight’s report.
I often bet both ways because there are no guarantees (well, actually because I have no idea what’s going to happen and I need a handicap).
But if I were to lean little heavier to the short side, today would be the day.
My spidey sense tells me Friday through next week may not be kind to PMs.
Google reports after hours; setting the tone for earnings season.
Alcoa started with a thud let’s see how the techs do, I don’t believe Fall is the best reporting numbers timeframe.
Just checking in on a day that doesn’t require much attention, but seems to me that everybody is on one side of the boat. Nothing scientific, but everybody is eventually waiting to get long metals at lower prices, whether it’s $1400, $1500, or $1600 gold.
I’m not worried about PM demand at all, this is what bull markets are made of. I’m more concerned that were about to see some capital controls that limit our options for riding the bull.
The USD futures,/DX, has been in a tight downtrend channel for the last 7 days.
The USD futures,/DX, has been in a tight downtrend channel for the last 7 days.
Sorry about the duplicate. I hit publish and the message was still in preview mode.
Shalom that would sicken me. Where are you hearing about that?
Haggerty,
You’re over here all by yourself. Do you want any company?
Best,
Le Fou
No place in particular, but it gets briefly mentioned more and more in my reading. A couple days ago we were talking about goldmoney.com here, and it turns out the Dutch are no longer legally able to invest there. This is a recent decision, as in the last month. Don’t believe the Dutch are any different than Americans or Europeans in general, it’s a New World Order to those in control, and they’ll make the rounds in time. Americans already can’t cash out of goldmoney.com into any of 9 other currencies like most other customers there. In addition, Americans also have extra reporting for goldmoney.com accounts
It’s how the game is played. Crooks need to limit options when the ones they want you to choose (the dollar or bonds) lose credibility. Same game, different day.
If Americans sell their gold and goldmoney, they MUST take payment in USD.
Shalom Bernanke, look into tax havens. Renounce your US citizenship!
SB,
It`s not the one I can see that worrys me, it`s the one I can`t see that has my knees knocking.
Eamonn,
If I thought Americans weren’t waking up, renouncing citizenship would be an option. As it stands, I’m sticking around for the fight. 🙂
Even renouncing citizenship is costly, not including the time it takes to make it official. The problem is that not many places won’t be affected. It’s one world to the crooks that think they own it, only we believe in sovereignty and boundaries.
Why was the S&P company investigated by the SEC for his ratings performance during the 2008 meltdown only immediately AFTER they downgraded US debt (in 2011). I don’t understand why the US media have not cried foul on this
There is something to be said for owning physical, as long as one can defend it from theft, confiscation, etc.
It appears to me that the window for trading paper gold (etfs, futures, etc) is rapidly closing. If I had to guess, I’d say within 2 years. Keep in mind I have never been a bug for physical metal, and don’t own nearly enough at this point in time. I still play at the arcade like the rest of us!
From Marc Faber, taken from Zero Hedge just now:
“So we find it quite interesting that as a result of the global financial crisis, more and more Western economists are now moving towards socialism, while the more socialist countries such as China are becoming more capitalistic. Could this be the New World Order underway? .”
Crazy fast moves here, small numbers but up and down very quickly.
Allright, I’m done, made my minimum plus a tiny bit. Got to go paint walls.
Check in later.
I did have a gold money account at one time but now I don’t have any funds there.
You know I did hear Rogers talking about the fact that you can now go downtown NYC to the Bank of China and open up an account and buy their currency. I know it’s just another piece of paper but probably good to have an account there.
If I didn’t have to go to NYC to open the account, I’d probably do that too. 🙂
Shorted a little more SSO on the gap fill from yesterday. Still not too excited about this trade, and limiting total risk to 1% of capital.
The Dollar better start cooperating soon. My guess is we rally a little tomorrow too and wake up to a huge gap down Monday on some bogus headline.
For trading purposes, I’m not paying any attention to the dollar as measured against other confetti. USD becomes less relevant each day, IMO.
USD is now deeply oversold in an uptrend while PMs are deeply overbought in a downtrend. Please give me my rocket scientist degree!
Dollar move not very inspiring today..
A narrow range day with a slightly lower low would ease the parameters to form a swing.
great earnings out of GOOG so of course the dollar.. sells off? haha i can’t wait for this idiotic market to burn to the ground.
not that i’m blaming it on google, but the correlation at this point is getting absurd.
The dollar and stocks have a symbiotic relationship to some extent. Each one exerts influence on the other.
true, just funny to think that some company’s earnings are enough to push the fx market pairs of the world’s reserve currency.
before anyone else looks, dollar already back up and even the /nq decided not to chase.
Danno (aka rocket scientist;-)
What time frame are you looking at? On the daily and 60 min for the last 7 days in the USD and the last 11 days in gold and silver (all futures), I see just the opposite: /DX in downtrend and /GC and /SI in uptrends.
Spot gold closed at 1666.60.
Seriously….
Captain Morgan,
One week or less I’m guessing. But I wouldn’t be shocked by a few more up days. If that happens I would take it to mean the fall might not be as bad, but a fall is still coming IMO.
Of course, who knows. It’s just a guessing game. That’s why I don’t bet the farm. I wonder what the shorter time frame charts looked like right before 09/02/08? I don’t have time to look right now.
It might be of interest to note that ZSL closed all its gaps and bounced off its 50MA.
Is that there a bearish “abandoned baby” on the SLV chart? Obviously gaps for silver are more questionable given that it trades round the clock but this same pattern (on the bullish side) nailed the gold intermediate cycle low back in July.
Morning All
Looks like stocks are going to be up again here today. Still not letting those shorts out of there positions Dollar not doing crap. If dollar keeps this up going in to next week we are going to have a left translated cycle.
I’m going to guess that a lot of shorts are going to give up before the weekend and next week market will open up down big and dollar will be much higher on a (Fill in the blank Headline)
Actually this is also looking like the narrow range trading day on the dollar Gary was talking about.
If I ran a western central bank, I would crank up the presses. Why not? The money is needed and it’s free to make.
75sma on a weekly SPX is breached to the upside, bull market territory.
If the SPX were to power higher and tag the 200sma on a daily it will be well over the 75sma on a weekly and deep in bull market territory.
DX is attempting to pull back to the 50sma daily for a bounce.
WW,
No a declining 200 DMA along with a Dow theory sell signal and a penetration of the previous intermediate cycle low is confirmation of a bear market.
The 75 isn’t a guarantee. It’s not unusual to see a bear market bounce back up to the 200 DMA. Plus you need view the 75 not as a line in the sand but think of it as a big purple crayon mark.
You tend to use moving averages as the holy grail but just like everything else they fail from time to time. If you don’t recognize that failure when it happens you will lose a lot of money unless you are controlling position size.
There is a new post BTW
NEW POST
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