163 thoughts on “New post

  1. jhnewman

    I wanted to thank everyone who responded to my long Monday post about gold going down to 1511-1420 by mid-January. I appreciate the comments and suggestions very much.

    Unfortunately, I’m up to my eyeballs in work, and won’t be able to respond to any of those posts.

    I just popped in here to thank everyone, and to wish you all the best of luck in your trading.

    Gotta run.

  2. Visitor

    Thanks again JH – That’s going to be one heck of a fall to happen in such a short time!

    I await your next mystical visit and quick disappearance. Have a magical holiday season and don’t let the shiny metal cloud your vision. All the best!!!

  3. Danno

    The only conspiracy I’m aware of is the conspiracy to keep me from ruling the world. I don’t see why. All I ever wanted to do was to crush my enemies, see them driven before me, and hear the lamination of the women!

  4. Le Fou

    James,

    Not very likely that a C-wave started yesterday. We’ve not finished an A-wave or a B-wave yet.

    Check out the Terminology Document.

    Good trading,
    Le Fou

  5. St. Deluise

    LOL elaine!

    still short the SPY (best potential imo). jury’s out on gold but i am not bullish.

    it’s been a while since i’ve posted one of these since no one cares (especially me, but i have a minute so..)

    1 hour /es, /gc, and /zn with effective volume on the subgraph.

    http://i43.tinypic.com/o7ufb7.png

    purple = 89, blue = 233, yellow=610 hourly SMA

    my interpretation is that the money is flying out of /es, into /zn, and churning around in /gc (with a negative bias)

  6. TrendTraderBH

    Buying the 50 period moving average on a 15 min chart once again got you in at the days lows. In an uptrend this tends to be a consistently good entry point. Of course, trading in hind-sight is easy….

  7. TZ(8155)

    Something useful to consider about what the ECB appears headed for.

    According to the news today (see bloomberg) the ECB (meeting tomorrow) is likely to:
    a) lower rates
    b) increase the types of securities or collateral they will except in exchange for cash.

    The second part is key.

    http://www.zerohedge[PUT.DOT.HERE.TO.FIX]com/news/ecb-confirms-shadow-banking-system-europe-tatters#comment-1954499

    What is going on is a similar progression to what the fed did in 2008 (recall also that Geithner is flying all over EU this week discussing and coordinating with people).

    As you will see in that ZH post, the progress in 2008 was, roughly:

    -expand the TYPES of securities accepted for ‘collateral’ against loans or cash. This was another way of saying “we will expand what we take to include CRAP”.

    -accept that junk at high/full value and give cash. pretend it is a “loan” and the other party will have to take it back.

    -a bit farther in the future announce a plan or program which results in the ECB keeping all that junk and *surprise* the other party doesn’t have to return it.

    -end result = we printed money for junk.

    So…it looks like the ECB is starting down this path, in steps (necessary probably due to reluctance of germany to take the leap at once)

  8. TZ(8155)

    I think metals are still in rally mode and starting to smell the plan from the EU/ECB.

    I see nothing today making me want to sell gold (4x).

    I’ve been whipsawed on silver (what else is new) trying to get and hold a position (losing about 1%), but I’m still long about 0.5x hoping my stop holds. I want to see silver and gold rally up in the next 30 min (into the day trading session close at 1:30pm eastern.)

  9. TZ(8155)

    Despite ‘hopefully’ holding trading (and losing) on silver, I’m consiously aware that it also falls negative against my “cef is beating gdx” parameters.

    stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER:$GOLD&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p16682380042

    In other words, silver has been and continues to be a dog against gold for 6months now with no signs of changing.

    Even if gold continues up I’m not sure silver will and I’m not sure I should continue ramming my head against a wall with it if and until it starts clearly outperforming again. It is too volatile, the margins are too high, and it’s almost impossible to pick good stops.

  10. TZ(8155)

    With the world collapsing and people wanting safety I think it is clear that gold is protection and wealth. Silver is a momo play that depends more (like stocks) on enthusiasm and good times than on solid old-wealth protection.

    Case and point notice that we have only had ONE significant super bubble in silver (early in year) and that was only during and commitment to all the QE1 and QE2 stuff. Towards the end of it before things went in the toilet again (EU).

    I just think maybe I have a ‘fighting the last war’ bias towards trying to make money in silver since I did well on it early 2011. The facts don’t support messing with silver much at this time as I reflect more and more on it.

  11. TZ(8155)

    Something else I just noticed.

    Since silver has been crap against gold since it peaked that means that my “gdx vs metal” using CEF is actually a WORSE chart when you just look at gld:

    stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX:GLD&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p67198043402

    You have NOTHING to show for 3 yrs and the trend since we started collapsing/deflating back down in 2011 actually means you are in a clear underperformance trend with no signs of a change yet.

    Gold is the play in my opinion (if anything). Maybe the answer is cash if things don’t pick up shortly.

  12. Danno

    Silver is trying to break above its downtrend line and 20ma (Bollinger Band mid line)… simultaneously. That’s quite a feat to ask. If it manages to do it, I wouldn’t want to be short silver. Notice the 50ma is starting to arc upward. That’s a warning to shorts IMO.

  13. Razvan

    “make money in silver since I did well on it early 2011”
    thats a little bit of an understatement. The big money was made in silver earlier this year. The gold moves are chump change and gives little to be excited about

  14. TZ(8155)

    Silver will move..eventually..in short sharp spikes like it always does. And then whipsaw you to death in the other times.

    And if you are long and wrong it is almost impossible to get out fast enough.

    I’m just gonna focus on trying to get to 6x+ on gold futures with the expectation that we are about to break above the main daily downtrend line (the highs last week). There should be an adding opportunity around that point with small stop.

    My 4x position is already locked in pretty good with less than a 1% stop loss if all this fails and crashes lower.

    Silver just isn’t worth it until it really starts acting stronger on a ongoing basis. And that INCLUDES not collapsing back periodically when things get shakey and giving up weeks of gains on a whim.

    Early in the year showed the type of silver activity that was worth playing (and we did). This isn’t it.

  15. TZ(8155)

    Remember my earlier comments that even if silver outperforms gold by 2x, I can, instead go *3x* on gold, beat silver, using dramatically less margin, less volatility, cleaner stops, and be able to sleep at night instead of thinking things will turn and drop 10% in a few hours.

  16. TZ(8155)

    RAZ,

    >”make money in silver since I did well on it early 2011″
    thats a little bit of an understatement. The big money was made in silver earlier this year. The gold moves are chump change and gives little to be excited about .

    Yes, it is an understatement, but it is also a sore spot for many here so I just leave it at that.

    As for ‘chump change’ I assure you gold’s lower volatility allows more leverage in exchange. I could easily have a 10% entire net worth gain for this single week the way things are going.

    Yes, if you play gold at 1x it moves slower. But that isn’t a requirement and I would argue that 2x-3x is easily doable even with gary’s approach.

    Going higher requires more of a tight stop system like I use to limit that risk. It also means more losses and more adrenaline.

  17. ver

    Seems unlikely this indecision is going to resolve today. And to varying degrees the cycles and sentiment levels for the varying “plays” are in ambiguous enough territory to support a move in either direction. Without any clearer signal from the markets today, holding a position into tomorrow feels too much like gambling…

  18. james r

    TZ,

    You are not alone with silver. SLV and AGQ have been acting erratic and can be very difficult to make clean exits.

    I am out on both since both are not doing what I expected today.

    I may go ahead and look at GLD and DGP.

    James

  19. Bill

    James R, it’s just coiling, isn’t it? Up yesterday, down today – sideways.

    I have no idea where this will go, but when it goes, it will go hard. I’m looking for signs in volume in PHYS but see nothing. Just have to wait and see I guess.

  20. Bill

    Sophia, well, Gary always says, surprises come to the upside in bull markets. Also he says that any mistake will be fixed if one holds.

    I’m still in cash. I’m thinking though to put in a BUY STOP LIMIT order at gold’s breakout point. I may buy PHYS this time instead of GLD, too. The problem of money printing is now truly global, and CB’s are working in unison. This could be the final takeoff I fear.

  21. TZ(8155)

    I’m reading the premium blog and many of you guys are getting faked out or selling under pressure in my opinion.

    I think you will regret that.

    Part of the problem is in having GDX over gold as per my earlier posts.

    Gold has performed perfectly well today and continues to grind higher. There is a real chance that we break the daily downtrend line on whatever the EU and ECB do tomorrow and have a very strong week.

    Maybe not, but my stops are in otherwise.

  22. TZ(8155)

    Regarding my GDX comment, yes…if gold breaks this downtrend higher I would fully expect both GDX and silver to move well higher as well.

    I just think it has been easier to hold gold meanwhile and maintain a cool composure.

    GDX or siler may beat gold 1 for 1 if we head higher, but if the action whips you out or causes you to sell then how good is that extra return?

  23. TZ(8155)

    Note that my market comments are just *different* from gary’s. I’m not saying better.

    Gary is darn good and I benefit with his advice. I just tackle this problem from a bit of a different angle based on my own opinions.

    I lost 40% of everything in 2008 with my approach and I’m sure gary beat me there. So fair warning if anybody thinks I have all the answers.

  24. Bill

    TZ, Yes! On GLD. A very very small position, in one day, out the next. Broke the ice for me. GLD is lower now, so I am smiling to know that buying low and selling high works. I also learned here that cost averaging UP is the way to go (as opposed to Cramer’s cost average down). I learn a lot here. Although cycles still eludes me.

  25. Bill

    Interesting how GLD went up today but GDX is coiling sideways. I still have it in my head that GDX outperforms GLD 2:1, so days like this teach me to just trade GLD, as GDX is too unpredictable and erratic for my skill level. GLD looks easier.

  26. Danno

    Each EU announcement so far has been a disappointment. No reason to believe this one will be any different… except that everyone is expecting another disappointment. If there is any surprise to the upside I’d watch out(short term) if I were a short.

  27. ver

    Bill:

    You can’t read into the relative action between GDX and GLD intraday or even over a couple of days. Compare the performance for this week and you’ll see that GDX is outperforming GLD. Compare the performance since the daily cycle low a couple of weeks ago and you’ll see there’s a near 2:1 performance.

    More recently in this intermediate cycle the 2:1 relationship has held up, though as TZ points out over a much longer-term chart this has not held up. And we’ve yet to see miners decouple from the stock market in a meaningful way, which is another fly in the ointment.

  28. Bill

    Didn’t WW say that GLD has a slanted H&S? I’m seeing it now, on a 3 mo 60 min chart. GLD needs to get above 170.80 for me to believe we’re going up. Looks to be curling over a bit now … can’t be sure though. I never trust gold.

  29. coolkevs

    DeMark update:
    ES, NQ, YM, and TF Futures are a day ahead of the index count for a DAILY TD SELL setup – currently on Bar 8 of 9.
    SPX, NDX, and DJI are on Bar 7 of 9, needing a new high either tomorrow or Friday to perfect the SELL setup. Good for a 1-4 DAY reaction (Monday – Thursday of next week). Russell 2000 and Nasdaq Composite are on Bar 6 of 9, so a little divergence there.
    We have a deferred DAILY Sequential 13 signal, needing a high above SPX (futures) 1275.92 to perfect. Also, NDX (futures) 2355.78. When those record, expect a 12 DAY (2 1/2 week) reaction. So, it’s looking like markets may initially rally on the Europe news, then sell off into the end of the year. Stay tuned…

  30. ALEX

    That chart that I posted GDX was a couple minutes to close. The final ticks brought GDX back into red for the close.

    HHHMMMM?

  31. traderlady

    ALEX, Thank you for the chart. I added to GDX this morning and EXK.
    Sold the SLV at the close.

    Hope all is fine with you and Lana
    and do hope you come back to paradise:)

  32. John

    so what is it folksies?

    C wave or D wave, or it A wave before C wave?

    … just checking on you guys now think … hope D wave is not back again

  33. Bill

    Wav_ridah, just saw your charts from the prev blogpost (earlier today). Very very good. The one that stuck out the most to me was your monthly $USD, showing the backtest. This combined w/COT suggests to me that gold will go up soon, and perhaps far. Thanks for sharing.

  34. Greenspansconscience

    HUI closed slightly positive. GDX slightly negative. Blah. Either way quite a few black candles formed today in the miners that did manage to close green, which means we will be closing lower than today’s close at some point in the future. Someone please show me an instance of black candle that wasn’t followed up by a lower close. It’s much like a “gap” in that respect.

  35. Bill

    Green, see ABX on Nov 28th – black candle – followed by an up day. May 9th also. Among black candles, I see these about 25% of the time. I now never look at black candles, nor hollow red. Same as I don’t look at volume anymore either. That’s just me.

  36. John

    so how do you know it’s true?

    some common answers these days:
    – i heard it on TV
    – the wall street journal said so
    – it’s known … everyone says so

  37. John

    ask anyone (except conspiracy theorists of course):

    what’s you opinion about such and such?

    almost all will repeat the answers already said on TV as their opinion, with a little twist

  38. Greenspansconscience

    Bill, the black
    Candle doesnt necessarily need to get negated the very next day. It’s just whennypu seenone, you known that at somenpoint in the future it will get negated.

    For example, on sept 13 2010 hecla formed a black candle and closed a bit under $6. The candle was never negated and hecla proceeded to run to $11.

    I didnt think that black candle under $6 would ever get negated, but it did, eventually. I hate black candles, and if a stock runs higher immediately after forming one and without closing below that candle, you can guarantee that at some point the stock is coming back down to close below the black candle.

  39. Bill

    Green, oh I see. I should have read your post more carefully. I was thinking if a black candle was a reversal candle, tipping it’s hand for the next day. Sorry about that.

    But you know, the idea that prices will eventually come back to a black candle made me wonder, isn’t that true of any candle? I mean, if one says “eventually”, that could be a long time, as in HL.

    I don’t read anything into candles anymore. Too much variation for me. Anyways, more power to you. Any edge/observation is very valuable in this whipsaw environment.

  40. Greenspansconscience

    Bill, the black
    Candle doesnt necessarily need to get negated the very next day. It’s just whennypu seenone, you known that at somenpoint in the future it will get negated.

    For example, on sept 13 2010 hecla formed a black candle and closed a bit under $6. The candle was never negated and hecla proceeded to run to $11.

    I didnt think that black candle under $6 would ever get negated, but it did, eventually. I hate black candles, and if a stock runs higher immediately after forming one and without closing below that candle, you can guarantee that at some point the stock is coming back down to close below the black candle.

  41. Bill

    Giant, a wild chart. I then read about this guy. Did you notice his comment about that chart? He revoked it. A fruitless lead from a worthless author in my view.

    He wrote:

    “The gold index is about to run out of time for the “Plunge” phase of the “Three-Peaks and a Domed House” pattern. Tracking the gold index with this pattern is terminated and this is the last update.”

  42. Bill

    Imagine flying at 36,000 feet, and suddenly the pilot yells out, “May Day!, May Day!” “We’re all gonna crash and burn!” And then, “Oops, sorry, false alarm.”

    That’s what that “author” showed in his chart, by showing it and then revoking it. Irresponsible. People are caned for less in Singapore. Pisses me off.

    Done venting.

  43. SF Giants Fan

    Bill

    I saw that comment also but understood it differently. I saw the “run out of time” an figured it better happen soon. Then when it happens there is nothing left to say.

  44. blammo

    Everybody makes calls and has a ‘system’. And everyone gets some calls wrong. The best thing I’ve learned from Gary, is that if you manage your risk and minize your losses, the gains should take care of themselves.

    Also, most people only confuse themselves by reading too many Market guru blogs.

  45. Bill

    Was just looking at $GOLD’s weekly chart … noticed how the correction now looks like the 1st 1/2 of the correction in 2008. After that correction, we had 3 yrs of steady upward movement. It wouldn’t surprise me if we were in a long, slow D wave down still. The weekly MACD is pretty wide open still.

  46. Bill

    Do any SMT folks over in Europe think that some countries may resort to selling some of their gold to cover debts? Or is that not on the table? Just curious. Thanks.

  47. Farm Girl

    GDX – will go ex-dividend on December 23, paying about a 10 cent income distribution and 60 cent long term capital gain. Taxable even if you only hold the ETF that day. GDXJ will be much worse – 68 cent long term gain, but I saw on SeekingAlpha that the income dividend could be $2.

  48. James

    I’m sure the weaker countries will sell ALL their gold to the banksters.

    Greece and Portugal should stuff the creditors but sadly, that’s not going to happen.

  49. TZ(8155)

    ECB press conference is at 8:30am eastern when it is believed they will discuss the lowering of collateral requirements for loans (ie…we will now take crap for cash).

    Recall this is a similar progression the Fed did in 2008 before finally permanently keeping bad paper and, essentially, printing.

  50. TZ(8155)

    Increased gold to 5x. This has a ‘slow grind’ feel that makes me think it will just continue up and out of this triangle. Small stop if wrong on the addition.

  51. TZ(8155)

    Still no recognition or buying surge on high volume. Not many people believe this move which, to me, means we continue up until there is a serious spike before retracing.

  52. Gary

    It seems very apparent to me that Bernanke wants a lower dollar. Every day that the dollar tries to rally, some time in the middle of the day a flood of selling hits it and knocks it back down.

  53. TZ(8155)

    Wild move. Yes WW this low here needs to hold or the triangle is now going to look like a resolution to go lower instead of higher.

    ECB doing nothing and making it look like EU is still in collapse mode.

  54. Danno

    U.S. stock futures, European equities and the euro fell, erasing earlier gains, after European Central Bank president Mario Draghi said he didn’t signal plans to purchase more bonds.

  55. Jarek

    great example of a wishful thinking of gold bugs

    dollar topped dollar is going down dollar this dollar that

    and here are results

  56. TZ(8155)

    The big point here and today is that this large triangle in gold could be heading down instead of up.

    Both sides are violently fighting over that direction.

    I’ve moved my stop up.

  57. ver

    Certainly looks like a bearish sell the news reversal for stocks/PMs. We could reverse back up but unless your scalping intraday moves I don’t know why one would hold positions without more clarity. Feels like gambling to me…

  58. Dubbelito

    Yeah super trading there WW,
    though I don’t have the time nor the stones for the daytrading I do enjoy your real-time announcements, and to read your reasoning behind them. Once again 10 DMA swoop failed and gold hit its head on the downward trendline.

    Now it looks to have found some floor in the lower trendline from our DCL, let’s see if that holds (using 6/12 as HCL).

    /D

  59. ver

    Ironically intraday scalping is the only sane reason to play in this sandbox so long as you have an edge. Nicely done WW, props are in order.

  60. Gary

    The news was bearish. The EU stated they would not buy bonds. It wasn’t a sell the news event. It was a bad news event.

  61. Dan

    Like I posted in the subscribers forum, by holding PM positions into tomorrow all one is doing is betting or gambling on the outcome of the euro summit. 50/50 odds.

    Is that really what we want to be doing?

  62. sophia

    One thing I can predict: if the Europeans manage to get their act together tomorrow as I believe, there will be blood on the street…The bears now think that they have a license to kill, but the Bulls might end up winning buckets!

  63. Shalom Bernanke

    I remain long miners and a smaller position in PHYS, holding comfortably and looking to possibly dial up my risk a little more if we get a washout. Today doesn’t qualify as the panic isn’t severe enough, IMO.

    Good luck and be careful out there! 🙂

  64. TZ(8155)

    What a morning. Jeez look at what silver did. Flying razor blade.

    That might have been a low in gold just now (we are putting in a seeming small triangle just under the daily downtrend line), but we may also have altered the direction and the entire mess might be heading higher to 1630 or so.

    This is gonna take a bit of time to sort out.

    Good job again WW. You nailed this one today. I gave back all profits over last 2 days.

  65. St. Deluise

    i doubt this is about whatever the draghi news is as much as it is about getting out of the “buy into the ECB meeting” trade because people have been quietly sneaking out of risk and into bonds all week.

    gold looks a heck of a lot more bullish than stocks here but i’m not touching it either way.

    10 year will be making new highs soon. i don’t follow the dollar anymore but it’ll probably do well as this is happening.

  66. Gary

    Yes this could be a game changer. This could reverse the markets back to the “2012 worst economic year in history” scenario.

    The markets were hoping that the EU would resort to buying bonds like the Fed. They killed that idea this morning.

    They will eventually change their mind once social unrest gets extreme but for now it looks like what the market was hoping for is off the table.

  67. Gary

    Bernanke wants a weak dollar. Buying the dollar has just as much risk as stocks. and is just as volatile. This morning the dollar was down big only to reverse on the statement out of the EU.

    The problem is that everyone wants an environment with a strong trend so they can take a position and hold on.

    Unfortunately we just aren’t in that kind of environment anymore. The markets are being ripped back-and-forth by fundamental events that are taking place daily. In that kind of environment one has to have a very short term investing horizon and be willing to turn on a dime every day.

    I said months ago when the dollar bottomed that we were now going to be in a very volatile trading environment. The days of taking a position in silver and holding for months are gone, at least for the next year.

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