WEEKEND REPORT

I think this weekend’s report is probably one of the most important reports I’ve written for gold traders and investors as to what I think is in store the next couple of months.

I’m going to make the report available over the weekend for $1. Actually you will have access to the entire site for the next two days for the price of one George Washington. You can either keep your subscription and it will convert to a monthly on Tuesday morning or cancel it Monday night and you won’t be charged another dime. Either way you will get access to a report that I think is important for every gold investor to read.

If you decide to cancel do so by following the directions on the home page of the website.
Click on the link above to go to the premium website and then click the subscribe link on the upper right side to link to the subscription page. 

THE OFFER HAS NOW EXPIRED

438 thoughts on “WEEKEND REPORT

  1. Neo

    I have maybe two silly question, i would like to ask:

    1-) Is CEF a good alternative for someone who want to protect his money in gold without having direct physical ? Has CEF the same problems as GLD (in terms os insuficient physical in the vaults as many sites states about GLD/JPM) ?
    2-) When someone trade XAG/USD, what does we really trade ? What is objectivily XAG/USD ?

    Thks everyone who can answer me these silly doubts.

  2. Tiho

    So all you have done is figured out that Gold is actually NOT going to go back up towards $1,900 and the correction is going to be stronger as the triangle breaks to the downside?

    A dollar is not a lot of money, but honestly I wrote here a few weeks ago that common sense states Gold needs a major correction to shake out all the bulls. Basically all you need to know is that when some asset, whatever it is, is up 11 years in the row – you do not want to chase it.

    Gold could go as low as $1,200 from here just like in the mid 70s when it correct almost 50% shaking out all the bulls who hang onto their bullish 200 day moving average outlook non sense. Than, when majority get scared, Gold will go and touch the Dow Jones nominally just like in 1980!

  3. Gary

    Congratulations you have quoted Jim Rogers perfectly. Maybe try thinking for yourself next time.

    Everyone has expectations for what may or may not happen. But we all have to trade in real time.

    B-wave’s don’t move below D-wave bottoms. In real time this looks like gold is probably in a B-wave decline, which means it should hold above $1535.

    However if Bernanke succeeds in breaking the dollar rally then we could see gold reverse and the A-wave continue.

    If the dollar were to collapse we could even see the C-wave re-ignite.

    This is what is called real time analysis, instead of using someone else’s ideas and claiming them as your own.

  4. Gary

    BTW if you bothered to look at the model portfolio you would notice that it is 100% cash right now. We aren’t chasing anything. You might also notice that the model portfolio is up 23% in 5 months.

    This was accomplished during a very tough trading environment with no leverage and never investing more than 75% of capital.

    If you want to troll I suggest you do it somewhere else, because the SMT has been one of, if not the best, performing newsletter in the world for the last couple of years and you just look silly trying to knock it.

  5. Tiho

    I do not know anything about D waves and B waves and G waves or your newsletter. I do follow the blog however and I like it.

    I congratulate you on your returns. On the other hand I will not brag about my returns or losses over the last 5 months or 5 years, because it is of the topic and not really important to anyone but me and the investors I look after.

    Having said all that, I am just discussing Gold, its rally for 11 straight years, 14 straight quarters and the price trend of 750 days above the 200 day MA. My point is, no one should need any “help” figuring out that they are chasing an asset class with that type of basic statistics.

  6. Gary

    Rogers said the same thing last year. If you had listened to him you would have missed the run in silver and gold.

    Whether this is year 9, 10, or 11 has nothing to do with timing. The driver of the gold bull is currency debasement. If the Fed can break the dollar rally then all bets are off. Gold could begin the bubble phase of the bull market.

    This is why I track a lot more variables than just what year it is. It’s why I didn’t miss the rally in silver and gold last year. Although admittedly I mistimed the exit in silver by a couple of hours and then got stuck on the downside. However we got in at $21 so we still ended up with huge gains even though we gave some back.

  7. Danno

    Any triangle breakout could end up being kind of a dud, regardless of whether it breaks up or down. It’s not the greatest triangle in the world. Price does not fill the triangle. There is a lot of white space.

    Overall performance rank for triangles is only 16 out of 23 (1 is best) for upside breakouts, and 15 of 23 for downside breakouts. So even a great triangle can result in not-so-great returns for bulls or bears. They are also prone to throwbacks and bullbacks (failed breakouts).

    Triangles break upward 54% of the time, but still… that’s nearly 50/50 odds.

    I give Gary credit. This has been a really tough market to trade for months and his model portfolio has done extremely well. It’s a market were a person is forced to reevaluate nearly every week.

    http://thepatternsite.com/st.html

  8. Gary

    At timing the market? Certainly I’m better than Rogers. He even admits he’s one of the worst market timers.

    Rogers is a long term fundamental investor. When he sees a fundamental shift he takes a position and then holds it until the fundamentals reverse. He saw a fundamental shift in China and took a position. That meant he also got caught in the collapse of the china bubble.

    But he has no plans to sell those positions for years or decades so it is irrelevant to him.

    I’m trying to keep emotional retail traders and investors on board the precious metal bull. In order to do that I have to try and avoid intermediate and D-Wave declines because the average investor cannot hold through those. He will sell at the bottom.

  9. Danno

    Tiho,
    Jim Rogers said on-air last week that his only big long positions are PMs and Agriculture and that he would buy even more gold if it tagged 1,600. He never said anything about expecting some kind of implosion.

  10. basil

    Gary,

    not only do I believe all your statements about your performance to be false, but your claim to have the best performing newsletter in the world would require that all newsletters in the world run set portfolios that you can compare, which they don’t. And your claim would, of course, require you to read all these newsletters, which I assume you don’t. Equally your claim that your performance is better than the performance of all hedge funds in the world is mostly funny, but also baseless as hedge funds play by entirely different rules. Start a hedge fund and then we talk. As long as I have followed your market calls, these calls and your performance was mediocre. Not bad overall, but not particularly good either. In comparison to other gold newsletters – and that’s what you have here, a gold newsletter – you are nowhere near the top. You’ve been clinging to the precious metal bull market for performance. If that bull market would not exist your performance might not even be in the plus column. Would one have just held gold since summer 2010, non-leveraged, your non-leveraged trading would have underperformed; and if one would have held gold since summer 2010, leveraged, your leveraged trading would have underperformed; and that is despite the breakdown in gold. Despite the break down in the price of gold, gold is still up 20% more than when you recommended to sell in early summer, just at the exact low.
    You’re ill-advised to make these statements about your performance. That includes your claim that you are a better market timer than self-made billionaire Jim Rogers. Rogers likes to say he doesn’t know this or that and that he’s the worst market timer. That’s just being coquettish. You don’t take him seriously when he says that, do you? He knows, and he’s an awesome market timer. That’s why he’s a freaking billionaire.
    As far as I know, based on what you told me, you have been investing at the stock market for merely 10 years, and during that time you made some money being in gold like pretty much every other gold investor.
    Time to humble up, bro.

  11. Gary

    Jim Rogers is not a billionaire and I said the SMT is one of the best if not the best newsletter in the world. That is a correct statement.

    The reason it is is because I’m smart enough to concentrate on the only bull market left. I don’t make stupid mistakes like trying to short bull markets and I control position sizing.

    I add to that cycles analysis and sentiment. The combination of all three allows me to make my subscribers consistent money and for the most part to avoid significant draw downs which the average investor can’t weather and ends up selling at the bottom.

    If it was easy to make money in a bull market everyone would be rich.

    I don’t know why you are such a negative person but please take it somewhere else. This is a site for making money not griping about every nonsense idea you can think of.

  12. thedocument

    Hi Gary,

    I haven’t chimed in here in a while, but I just read your weekend report and want to put in my two cents. Penny #1: it is very dangerous to ignore the absence of a swing low and declare a DCL for the dollar on 30-Nov simply based on instinct. Unless you have a secondary technical indicator for making that judgment, you risk undermining the value of your methodology.

    Penny #2: Gold is simply too early in its intermediate cycle… and sentiment under both gold and silver too low… to anticipate a significant decline here. In fact, I suspect gold may leave behind a Day 13 daily cycle low from Friday. Daily cycles are often abbreviated when forming within triangles, and this tendency is stronger for the last daily cycle within the triangle. So if gold breaks higher Mon/Tue, I will be counting a new daily cycle.

    Also, in response to all those expecting gold to go down just because it keeps going up… commodities are very close to setting a 2.5-year cycle low if that low was not already seen in October. There is really no room… cycle-wise or sentiment-wise… for significantly lower commodity prices in the near future. In fact, the next 2 years are likely to see the inflationary policies of the world’s central banks really hit home. The next big gold decline is probably several years off.

    Happy Holidays

  13. ALEX

    I just wrote to a few friends of mine that “THE WAY I EXAMINE THINGS” …

    I saw a bunch of MINERS set up Friday in many ways that I look for –to go LONG… so I looked at MANY factors in MANY charts and also the SPX and DJIA…look really ready to go HIGHER.

    This while MANY of my friends are going short Last week or preparing to.

    Markets COULD possibly drop Mon,Tuesday until the FED mtg, or just take off from here, but here’s what I wrote a few of my friends Friday(some thinking the dollar is going to rocket and Gold crash …

    “The markets are (what I would consider) perfectly set up to rally soon …And by that I think MINERS and the SPX etc started today and are set up for a nice move higher.

    The MINERS are nicely set up and any who sold on the ‘shake out’ yesterday would be left chasing. I know this doesnt co-inside with cycles timing for your GOLD count …you may think it’s late in the cycle to even hope for Miners to make $$ here… But I see set ups across the board.

    ………and AG, RIC, CDE, SWC, GORO, NG and many more are ready

    General Markets are set up nicely too

    http://www.screencast.com/t/aSJwrqb0

    LOOK at all the TRENDLINES and 5o & 200 SMA and this is NOT ALONE why I see what I’m seeing. It just fits what I’m seeing.

    THIS would form an Inverse H&S.

    When I say I see “set ups” to the upside, it doesnt mean from the “OPEN” of the markets Monday necessarily , but it means I am LONG…and I think a ‘shake out’ was Thursday. We could get one quick drop to the 50dma Monday & Tuesday for a final flush, but I think we are set up to go higher.

  14. ALEX

    ADD to Thursdays Gold Plummet this thought…

    Examining 1 or 2 month Daily charts of AUY, RIC, GORO, EXK,NG, etc etc etc

    You could NOT tell by looking at THEIR Thursday action that on that day…GOLD shot up early and dropped from high to low $60 …The miners charts were NOT damaged by an intraday $60 drop in Gold.

    So I believe for this and MANY other reasons that Miners are poised to go higher now or soon. (GDX didnt look quite ready, but as I said, Many individual “set ups” are ideal I.M.H.O.

  15. Danno

    Alex,
    It’s possible that your triangle already reached, and exceeded, a successful downward resolution. This may not be a fake out. Triangles are not great performers, so that triangle already did very well. Anyone shorting now [based on that particular triangle] would be taking on too much risk. That specific trade is over IMO.

    Whether or not a newer, larger trade exists for the larger triangle people are talking about I defer to Gary on.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p47661648271&a=250784386

    http://thepatternsite.com/st.html

  16. Danno

    Alex,
    I was not disagreeing with you, but just saying that was a successful downward resolution of that triangle and that triangle can now be ignored. Price is now free to move higher (or lower based on some other criteria).

  17. sophia

    Doc, Alex,

    I agree with you as well…too many people short, too much pessimism…Europe is not yet falling apart, and the worst has been priced in already… 1265 will break on the S&P by this week ( Opex) and next picnic area is 1330….

  18. ILUVPMS

    There are so many analysts out there who like to cheer their performance… Howard katz had a model conservative portfolio that made up to 300K before he passed away… now its up to 400K..How did he make such money…. by buying and holding… waiting for the major move… not going to cash on a regular basis and waiting for cycle bottoms… pure bullshit IMO.

    Cycle theory tells you that a turn is happening but the direction tends to be distorted sometimes..and sometimes doesnt pan out..

    Also, I wouldnt spend a dollar on a letter that would tell me that we aint breaking 1900…. I like gary’s tactic… just collect a “few hundred or so of those dollars for his own opinions… ” If they dont pan out well, you cant blame the guy cuz the markets are tricky .. right gary… but you do get to keep the money..

  19. ALEX

    DANNO

    I appreciate your observation.

    Yes, the drop from the tri angle was significant, but when I wrote that it was a ‘false break down’…it is because I usually consider a tri angle pattern as a “continuation pattern”…so since the price was heading up..it should have looked like a ‘continuation up’ or ‘Bullish Flag’ .

    so when it broke down there was a lot of talk of the “tri angle failed…strong Dollar rally taking over , and we were going down a LOT further. I think it helped to shake some out.But Many are still viewing THIS AREA NOW as a place to go short.

    I dont see it yet.

    SOPHIA

    Interesting that you said 1330, my two targets are right around that area too. Even 1350 IF there is strength in the move.

    (As usual -I wish to say that I trade the markets using chart patterns , sentiment, cycles and and several different indicators. The SAFEST way for most readers here is to follow GARY and preserve capitol in hazy times of the mkts).

  20. Liquid Motion

    Lets just remember a few critical points about AU.
    – Its price reflects a) Loss of purchasing power of paper currency(debasement) b) The strong belief in government hubris and malfeasance c) That it is factor of interest rates.
    – It has a direct inverse correlation to rising confidence in the deteterioration of economic management
    – Debt and fiscal deficit growth coincide with price appreciation of gold.
    – It is real money.
    – True Wealth protector …when all other asset classes are negative or near zero, gold shows who is King. It also has of late proven that it can also possibly be the only remaining investment that is not totally corrupted or manipulated.
    – Only when CB’s stop printing money will Gold then cease its bull market.
    It is fairly clear from my observation that the near to mid term give the impression that i)debt problems are not resolved ii) Some banks and sovereigns will not avoid bankruptcy iii) USD and other major currencies will continue their race to the bottom iv) Gold will continue its bull run. v) CB’s will attempt to ensure that deflationary pressures will be avoided.
    Thats been the story for the last decade. The theme is true and consistent. If you missed the first and second phase…believe me you need to be there for the third phase….its gonna be a blast…!!!!

  21. ALEX

    ILUVPMS

    You arent wrong, in a Bull Market such as the GOLD BULL, you can buy and hold until the blow off top and do very well.

    I think (speaking for myself at least) try to lock in some profits if I can see a topping area forming and add to the next low to compound earnings.

    Both methods can be quite profitable, but both arent right for everyone ,I guess.

    LIQUID MOTION

    That last sentence FOR SURE, and I wont be trading ‘in and out’ of THAT time period, there’ll be no getting back in except much higher! : ]

  22. ILUVPMS

    Alex,

    my apologies… i believe in buying and holding and that is what i meant in my ramble above..

    That howard katzs portfolio was up that much by just buying and holding.

    I think timing bottoms with cycles and all that is merely bullshit… This is a major gold bull market you dont need to be trading in and out of it and going to 100 percent cash… Gary… Im up 50 percent since June… I bought edr, and FVI after the brutal bloodbath and held on….
    If anyone bougt miners in the summer and held on they should be doing well. period.

  23. High 5

    Kyle Bass, “There is no savior large enough with a magical pool of capital to stave off this unfortunately conclusion to the global debt super cycle. We think hard defaults are imminent.”

  24. Phil

    Why do you people come here to ‘Gary bash’? Not that I’m trying to defend him by any means but just curious what you gain by posting about some obscure person who is supposedly up 700 percent? If you have something of value to add, by all means post away…but I think I’m getting more out of zerohedge tonight than reading this..ummm stuff.

  25. aljiowa

    Tom, I read Corey’s site a bit…I’m sure he would be embarrassed by your lack of professionalism. I’m good with no leverage and not ‘busting out’. Anyone can come on a site and be big and bad about profits…unfortunately you probably aren’t so vocal about your losses.

  26. Phil

    That is really wonderful that KB made a ‘fortune’ from other people’s misfortune and shall we say less than intelligent decisions but to think it will happen again in basically the same way is just plain not very smart. The script has been written….and this time the ending will not be the same….

  27. Gary

    Tom,
    Not unleveraged and never investing more than 75% of capital you aren’t.

    There is such a thing as risk adjusted returns. In order to make 48% in a month you have to be heavily leveraged or all in on a speculative penny stock.

    Either way your risk is massive and eventually it’s going to catch up to you and you are going to lose everything. In the mean time the model portfolio will just keep chugging along and by the time you go to 0 it will probably be up 50-100%.

    No one ever dodges the leverage bullet. It catches up to everyone eventually.There are never any exceptions to this rule.

  28. Phil

    Nope….and no one else (except the Really Really rich people) has a clue either. The big difference between you and Gary is that he readily admits that he sometimes has no clue….you and your friend Kyle know everything though so why are you even bothering with some random blog?

  29. ILUVPMS

    gary…

    you can be invested 100% and be making money if you are in the right stocks… Howard katzs model portfolio did well and he held long… you dont need to be timing the bottoms cashing out and jumping back in… thats pure bullshit myfriend…

    25% is not alot…. and the stress of timeing bottoms and jumping back in for a few percentage is not worth it.. …People should always have a 70 percent core position and 30% trading… trade in and out with the small position and hold the rest long ..

  30. Gary

    ILUVPMS,
    Neither one of those two stocks are up 50%. In order to post the kind of gains you are claiming you would have to takeg massive risk and heavily leverage in order to make 50% since June.

    Your risk adjusted returns aren’t even in the same ball park as the model portfolio, and just like Tom and this Greer fella you are going to eventually hit a bad period and that leverage is going to decimate your account.

    I’ve been doing this a long time and I know BS when I see it.

    There is a reason why managers that make huge gains one year are never seen two or three years later. The reason is that they are leveraging heavily and it’s impossible to be right 100% of the time. If you miss and are heavily leveraged then you can and will destroy years of gains in the blink of an eye.

    Folks this illusion of giant gains is just that, an illusion, and those gains are going to disappear because the way they were achieved just isn’t safe and eventually the odds catch up to everyone.

  31. Gary

    Doc,
    The dollar is late enough in the daily cycle that I’m confident in calling a DCL even without the swing. The intraday range is so large it’s going to be tough to form the swing. Whether the cycle has topped or not I have no clue.

    Gold could put in an early cycle low. It’s always a possibility, I just never play it that way because most of the time the cycle low occurs in the normal timing band for a bottom. If it does then at some point I will recognize it and re-enter. The big move isn’t going to come until we break out of the consolidation anyway. And that’s not likely to happen quickly after the kind of move we saw from $1500 to $1900.

    I’ve been saying for months and months that we would probably see the CRB bottom in the fall. I think the odds are good that Oct was the 3 year cycle low. If so that would suggest that the dollar is going to break down soon.

  32. Gary

    I’ve already told you why I try to avoid intermediate degree corrections. Because most retail traders can not hold on through them. They end up freaking out and selling at the bottom. I’m am doing what is required to keep as many of my subscribers riding the bull market as possible.

    If you don’t mind holding through corrections then be my guest but that strategy will not work with the majority of traders.

  33. Gary

    Doc,
    If gold does go lower into a B-wave bottom it’s almost certainly going to be a whipsawing mess because sentiment is so depressed.

  34. ILUVPMS

    Gary stop assuming people buy on leverage… go and look at endeavour silver… i bought in when the whole world was suppose to crumble.. in june till now.. it has registered a 47% return.. nice try… my comments on kitco about buying this stock as well as FVI back up my statments.

    FVI is UP 51% in the past 6 months… nice try again.. go to goodle finance and check it out…

    no need for leverage.

  35. Aaron

    Your bias towards the dollar breaking down is very strong Gary. Ive rarely seen you be this biased on anything in the short term.

  36. ILUVPMS

    Also gary… the buy and hold method without LEVERAGE WORKS… ive been trading for a while, and realize that in a bull market like gold… you pick good stocks and hold on to them for the long run… the ones with relative strong performance rule….. So, folks its not bullshit that these gains cant be made… they can…. if anyone bought stocks with strong relative performance in june… they should be up alot…. also, silver stocks got hammered so its a gift to buy at those prices!!!!

  37. Gary

    If you entered at the exact bottom on Oct 4 then you are up 51% as of Friday’s close. You also had to weather a 20% correction during that period.

    Do you honestly expect us to believe you caught the exact bottom and didn’t sell during the correction has you watched a big part of your profits evaporate?

    Like I said I’ve been doing this a long time and I’m pretty good at spotting BS.

  38. Gary

    Aaron,
    On the contrary I have no idea which way the dollar is going to swing. The stock market 4 year cycle low would suggest it’s going higher over the next year.

    The CRB three year cycle low due this year would suggest it’s going down.

    Maybe our friends Tom, Basil or ILUVPMS have a crystal ball and can tell us ahead of time which way it’s going to break, but I really have no clue.

  39. ILUVPMS

    gary.. i see you cant do math properly… I bought in at JUNE>>>> BOTH STOCKS IN AT JUNE>>>>>> and have held on till now…..i do well at buying and holding… i dont buy the notion of the market crashing… i leave that fear mongering to analysts so that they can get subscribers to believe that they need them … once again.. Go to google finance and see that if you bought both stocks in june when we had a blood bath as well… you would be doing well now.

  40. ILUVPMS

    gary, you also need to stop assuming that people cant weather corrections.. give me a break… im a silver investor and have been through the thick of it… a 20% correction is just a sale… remember that

  41. ILUVPMS

    Gary,

    I dont know which way the dollar is going to break… I just hold my gold and silver, and buy miners when they are dirt cheap.. you offer a subscription to people and charge them money…

    that’s my peeve with analysts, they offer mere opinions for hard earned money, that people could make on investments with a buy and hold strategy too…

    The dollar, who knows, ill tell you where gold is going a few years from now.. higher and thats all that matters…. short term gyrations is mere noise and bullshit for “the traders to enjoy”

  42. Gary

    If you bought EXK in June then you still had to buy the exact bottom and you had to weather a complete retracement of your investment in Oct.

    Do you really think anyone is going to believe you held on while you watched an almost 100% gain evaporate over a two week period?

    Like I said pretty good at spotting BS.

  43. High 5

    Phil,

    I accept, thanks. If you read the letter though you will see that Bass has done a great deal of number crunching to arrive at what he thinks will happen. He doesn’t come across as all knowing.

    As for me I really have no clue.

  44. ILUVPMS

    Gary, let me be kind enough to show you my transaction from td.. will that suffice and help you out…

    You are not good at spotting BS my friend..

    I bought silver just prior to 2008 and still own it… didnt sell a thing.. the only BS i see is that you dont have a thick skin and are totally biased

    I bought in at 7.90… dirt cheap for a stock that got pummelled…

    Its funny that you think that people cant time bottoms… but you and your cycles are the only thing that can.. sure thing.

  45. Gary

    On the contrary I have delivered real results. I teach people how to invest. I stress risk control and realistic returns.

    My system of cycles, sentiment and a bull market work consistently and produce above average returns while avoiding most major corrections. I don’t bat 1000% anymore than anyone else but I can significant;y shorten the learning curve for most traders and I think I am accomplishing my goal of keeping as many people as possible in the game during this bull market.

    Anyone who has followed the model portfolio has made back their original subscription price 10’s if not hundreds of time over.

    I purposely keep my subscription price low so anyone can afford it.

    If I don’t do my job and don’t produce results then subscribers can simply cancel their subscription.

  46. Gary

    I never said one couldn’t time bottoms. I said you had to pick the “exact” bottom in order to achieve a 51% return. And you had to watch as an almost 100% gain evaporated or a two week time span. I don’t believe for one second you were able to do that, especially if your entire account is in two stock.

    Your risk adjusted return is terrible as apparently your entire portfolio is in two stocks. You are exposed to massive risk if either one of those companies has a company specific problem, like a mine flood or strike.

    I don’t want that kind of risk so I don’t buy individual companies. I am satisfied owning ETF’s with the full knowledge that I will underperform some companies and outperform others. But I will never wake up to a 50% haircut one morning because the CEO of one of my stocks committed fraud.

  47. aljiowa

    Right on Gary, I’ve learned a TON over the last 6 months, knowledge is power. I also appreciate productive posts from others on the blog, but the negativity from some people is unfortunate.

  48. Gary

    Better than Rogers? Certainly at timing the market.

    Rogers made most of his money when the Quantum fund took a massive bet against the pound. He’s rich enough now that he can just sit tight throughout a bull market.

    It would be easy to tell subscribers to just buy and sit still. Like I said, if that’s what you want to do then more power to you.

    The problem is that most people are just not emotionally capable of weathering the inevitable drawdowns that occur in every bull market.

    Most traders freak out at intermediate cycle bottoms and sell. Instead I try to get investors to sell at tops when the market is stretched far above the mean, and buy at intermediate bottoms thus reducing drawdowns and keeping more people riding the bull market.

  49. Unknown

    uh sentiment right now is too bearish and negative? what planet are you people living on?

    all I ever see from the MSM are the CNBC pumpers and cheerleaders on a daily basis, and analysts advising the sheep to BTFD every time, proclaiming that the US economy is getting stronger, and that the debt crisis in Europe is all but behind us. not to mention that WE ARE MOST DEFINITELY GOING TO HAVE the Santa Claus rally that is guaranteed to happen every single year end? how many times have I heard exactly how we are projected to hit 1300-1350 S&P from these horses mouth?

    yea ok, general sentiment is definitely too bearish and negative. I wonder what is considered normal to you folks… S&P to 1500 by years end, gold to 2500? LOL.

  50. William Wallace

    Looks like gold may have began to break down from the slanted head and shoulders that I have been talking about for the last couple of days. Gold just bounced off the 130dma (which was the last DCL, also back tested it 4 days into this DC and it held). Once the 130dma is broken I will be looking for a tag of the 150dma to take of the futures short. If gold finds strong support on the 150dma I may play it long for the bounce.

  51. Gary

    I can understand putting a 10 or 20% position in SLW. But there’s no way I’m going to put 66% of my portfolio into two very volatile junior miners. You are just asking for catastrophe.

    I just can’t justify that kind of risk.

  52. Gary

    unknown,
    Sentiment in the stock market is mostly neutral. Sentiment in gold and silver is bordering on extreme bearishness, which is why I say that any further decline is likely to be very volatile and will destroy both bulls and bears alike.

  53. Unknown

    ILUVPMs consider yourself very lucky, 50% lucky gains from holding just 3 positions, 2 of which you managed to time perfect entries at bottoms, and the big anti-PM hedge funds don’t have their short claws latched on to, wow yea OK nice to see your crystal ball is working 100% well for you, let’s see what happens when eventually the MM cancers start shorting the fk out of them.

  54. Venicerain

    ILUVPMS,

    Are you sure those three stocks are all you have? Don’t you have some other penny stocks that are down big? I noticed some of your posts on kitco’s penny threads unless that’s not you, say ATV XAG?. You can’t just pick some of your winning stocks and compair them to Gary’s performance. You have some losers in your portofolio too, right? Well, maybe that 3 stocks are 99% of your total portofolio. I am not a subscriber and I actually agree with you on the buy and hold strategy. But I think Gary made it very clear why he sticks with his trading strategy and I think his subscribers undertand that too.

  55. Gary

    If you also bought SLW in June then you suffered a drawdown and that third of your portfolio is only up 10%. So your portfolio can’t be up 51% like you claim because one third of it has underperformed the two juniors.

    I think we all know ILUVPMS is cherry picking two winners and is conveniently overlooking his underperformers or outright losers.

    No experienced, sane investor in the world would put all of their capital into three silver mining stocks with two of them being extremely volatile juniors.

    Like I said, pretty good at spotting BS.

  56. intelliblue2000

    Gary – LOL! Nothing on TV! I had the same question as hamvestor… I remember you used to respond to another poster (mint or something) who wrote long posts and was rather combative.

  57. ILUVPMS

    my penny portfolio is a small sum of money.. only an idiot puts his full amount in pennies…

    Also, howard katz and scott silva only hold three stocks..

    my pennies consist of XAG, CMA, ATV, those pennies comprise a small portion… unlike others i dont think pennies are the move yet.. only when the big guys and mid tiers make their moves will the pennies move.

    also gary, i dont hold equal weight in each miner.. the majority of my money is in edr, second fvi, and third SLW.

    you make to many assumptions.

  58. ILUVPMS

    gary,

    FVI is fortuna mining, (btw, that stock was a buy from doug casey at a buck) Ive been in and out of that one alot

    EDR: is endeavour silver.

  59. Gary

    So what is it, do you own three stocks, six stocks, or 20 stocks? The story keeps changing with every post.

    Your first comment was that your portfolio was up 51% which you claim handily outperformed the model portfolio. You then went on to say that you owned three stocks. Two of those stocks are up roughly 51% if you managed to buy at the exact bottom in June. SLW on the other hand has significantly underperformed those two juniors and the HUI index. So it is mathematically impossible for your portfolio to actually be up 51%.

    When I pointed out how risky it is to own two volatile juniors as a major portion of your portfolio then your story changed and now you own a basket of Junior mining stocks.

    If you just want to brag about one or two stock picks that you made that have performed well then be my guest. But don’t come on here with some cockamamie story that’s full of holes and expect anyone to believe you.

  60. William Wallace

    Felipe,

    This will be the third crack at the 130dma (first shot put the last DCL in), and we are late into this DC. I dont think we just put in a DCL again on the 130dma, and a short cycle (possibly a bottom for this session if gold trades in this range for a day)…have to see how it goes here.

  61. ILUVPMS

    GARY: i hardly consider Fortuna and endeavour to be risky juniors… if anything they are producers with high cash flow and great earnings.. SLW is a royalty company get your facts straight.. not risky at all.

    XAG, CMA: silver JUNIOR companies,
    ATV: gold company

  62. sophia

    Gary,

    please do not waste your time with people who come out of the blue and winge or say demeaning things! You are good, you know that you are good, you know that people are following your calls, enjoy it and don’t ruin your day with people who don’t deserve an answer!!
    take care mon ami, carpe diem

  63. William Wallace

    Just want to give anyone who took the gold futures short with me a heads up, now would be a good time to take profits, or cover into a $1680 break down… gold is near the 150dma ($1665 handle) and the bounce off it may be violent.

  64. Jim Rogers

    I’ve been sooo busy.

    Went to the shops this morning. Then checked gary’s blog for tips.Then I went and got a haircut. Hurried back in time to catch another tip off Gary’s blog. After that I had to have some lunch and catch up with a few friends. But that didn’t last long because I made sure I hurried back to read Gary’s blog for tips again.

    Its been a good day.

  65. Gary

    We’ll see how well ILUVPMS rides his positions down into a yearly cycle low over the next couple of months.

    ILUVPMS berates us for not holding positions and Tiho is adamant about not chasing 11 years into a bull market.

    Maybe they should duke it out with each other!

  66. Gary

    I’m going to take a wild guess and say that the 150 day moving average is not going to stop gold this time.

    It’s almost at that point now and we should still have another couple months before the yearly cycle low is due. It seems unlikely that gold would be able to chop around in this area for the next two months without moving below 1667, especially since it’s still early in this particular daily cycle and there should be at least one more daily cycle down for the yearly cycle low.

  67. sophia

    my 2 centimes of Euros: CAC40 is higher than where it should be considering the Nasdaq and the DAX…Healing process for the French market and the other european markets? Or nobody to short it anymore??

  68. ckpc

    WW,

    Good morning! Thanks for showing up and turning the focus back to what is happening with the gold market.
    I look forward to watching you in action this week. πŸ™‚

  69. Haggerty

    Damn, Gold on the way down….I guess we are seeing the continuation of the Dwave?

    Any chance this initial move out of the triangle consolidation is a head fake and it will go up? Like can happen with coils?

  70. Shalom Bernanke

    Rehypothecation.

    Closing some of my margin accounts today in order to avoid the lending of my stocks to criminals. All this before I take the next step and get them registered in certificate form and leave the US. πŸ™‚

  71. Shalom Bernanke

    Seems the trolls have descended on the G-man once again..lol

    Gary, regardless of the specific trading decisions we all make, you’re far above the need to answer the sour grapes. The other side of me actually likes to hear them bitch and moan like they’ve got it all figured out. Basil is just once case, where his flip-flopping on his subscription must translate into excellent trading results!

  72. Poly

    Careful trying to use sentiment and other secondary indicators to time the gold or any other cycle. They are purely confirming markers. When I hear people say gold sentiment is too low to support lower prices is asking for trouble.
    Sentiment can and does stay stretched and extreme for long periods of time.

    What you need to look at is the behavior of a given cycle in relationship to its preceding cycles. All cycles are related and effected by other cycles, whether its own preceding cycles or the long dated cycles. To take one cycle on it’s own and look at it as being in a vacuum is not understanding cycles interdependency.
    It’s been clearly shown that these gold blow-offs need time to correct. We could be in for another short IC here, so I believe there is plenty of downside room to move(regardless of sentiment) although it will be quick, we could be done in 3-4 weeks. This next move down is going to take many by surprise, but it will present us with another major opportunity.

  73. Gary

    I said with sentiment at extremely depressed levels it should make for a volatile ride down with plenty of counter trend moves because we are at risk of running out of sellers.

    However we now have an official failed daily cycle. The odds are now in favor of the intermediate decline having begun. It should last one more daily cycle after this one.

    If I had to guess I would say the current daily cycle will likely bottom around the 200 DMA and $1600. That could trigger another $100 bounce before the final cycle down and it’s even possible there could be two more daily cycles down since the last intermediate cycle was short.

  74. Poly

    I was referring to Doc’s statement on sentiment not supporting further downside.
    I agree on your assessment from what to expect from here, although I also given decent odds that we could also see a IC fail too.

  75. Gary

    Definitely a possibility and if it happens it would confirm this as a very extended D-wave and not a B-wave.

    That would be good for us as we should be able to make some decent money off the A-wave that would be generated out of the yearly cycle low.

  76. ILUVPMS

    Hey Gary… no worries about riding my positions down… its all part of the game… If it goes down below my dollar cost average I will buy some more…

  77. William Wallace

    Poly,

    Every other correction after a blow off over the last 10 years has basically bottomed on the 300dma except for the 8 year cycle low…if the 300dma (currently at $1537) holds this time around also this IC wont fail.

  78. Gary

    ILUVPMS,
    Yes but in the meantime the rest of us are sitting in cash and will buy as close to the bottom as we can. (Cycles analysis usually gets me in pretty close to the bottom.)

    We won’t have to endure any of the pain of watching profits melt away, and if this does turn out to be a D-wave then all of your profits are going to melt away, and you are going to suffer a massive draw down.

    It will be at least a year and maybe two before your positions move back into the green again.

    We on the other hand should easily gain another 25 to 50% on our portfolio by catching the bottom and riding the A-wave.

    Maybe you can hand a huge drawdown and 1-2 years of of stagnation but I suspect 99% of my subscribers can’t. They would sell at the bottom and then be too freaked out to re-enter. They would have been kicked off the bull.

    My goal is to prevent people from getting knocked off the bull. I think this will be the greatest bull market in history. I want to keep as many people on board as possible. To do that I have to avoid intermediate degree corrections and I absolutely have to avoid a D-wave.

  79. Shalom Bernanke

    I’m not knocking how you’re playing it, in fact I agree with your prognostications. If this is an extended D-wave as you seem to think, how far through it are we already?

  80. Shalom Bernanke

    Also, I didn’t say this was easy. It’s the most difficult trade of my career. As hard as it is, however, I find it preferable to sit in miners rather than fiat paper.

  81. Gary

    The 75 week moving average has also acted as support except during the eight year cycle low.

    If that were to get breached then I would expect gold to bottom at the consolidation zone around $1400. that would also be a 50% retracement of the entire C-wave.

    For now though I’m still assuming this is a B-Wave decline that will hold above $1535.

  82. Shalom Bernanke

    Phew, I can live with those possibilities. Hey, just because I happen to be on the same side of the fence as ILUVPMS doesn’t mean I like having a stooge alongside me.

    I bet I’ll have to watch the bull shake him and his buddies out before we resume the upside. πŸ™‚

  83. Dubbelito

    WW,
    where would you declare the 150 dMA not to hold? Is it distance below it or time spent below it (atm I’m looking at 1660-ish, 6 bucks below)?

    Curious you see.

    Thanks in advance.
    /D

  84. William Wallace

    Dub,

    It’s more of a feeling it out for me…depends on the strength of the bounce and some other factors. Let me be clear though, im only refering to a short term bounce if anything. Gold is obviously under heavy pressure here and the 150dma offered no strong support, next support is around 1643.

  85. Haggerty

    WW
    I am already short as well, nice small but significant position, if you can just post to the blog when your getting out of your short on the general market it would be appreciated !!

  86. GottaHaveIt

    WW,

    I just want to say thanks for posting all your trades and moving average signals.

    While most of us are not day traders, I find it helpful to see what you are doing.

  87. William Wallace

    Haggerty,

    Will do. I have been saying for weeks that I was expecting a 3-7 day bounce in the market and a run back up to the 150dma (Europe gave me a bit more of a push than I expected to the 200dma), before the market would roll over and break down to a new low…so until my stop is hit above the 200dma I will continue to look for a new low before taking off my short.

  88. Keys

    I have locked a core as well…Similar to SB, I am extremely uncomfortable holding an all cash position in this environment. This despite, Gary’s most accurate views! Back to losing money again! πŸ™‚

    But I am more focused on the end game, and as SB mentioned when you play this type of game it isn’t easy.

    Alright back to more important things…nothing to do…won’t add, won’t sell…

  89. Sooth Sayah

    I find walking away from the screen and going to the gym on days like this allows me to blow off some steam. Seems I’m there almost everyday lately. Still have some dry powder but I have left my longs from over the years in place. I’ve had this crappy feeling before and came out ok many times before. Pull up a long term chart and hit the treadmill before the holiday food is in front of you. Good luck all.

  90. Gary

    James,
    We don’t have confirmation of a D-wave yet.

    Unlike some people I can’t trade in hindsight I just have to make my decisions in real time.

    Until $1535 is broken I’m assuming this is a B-wave. If $1535 is broken then I will jettison the B-wave theory and declare this a D-wave.

  91. Gary

    ILUVPMS,
    This is the kind of correction that most subscribers can’t weather and this should still have another couple of months before it’s over.

    This is why I try to avoid these things because 99% of the people caught in one of these will get permanently knocked off the bull.

    As long as they are in cash there’s a decent chance they can pull the trigger at the bottom. If they have a 30-50% drawdown it’s impossible to pull the trigger at the bottom. They will be freaking out and just looking to exit even.

  92. Russell

    I’m ready for gold to return to a fear trade. Currencies, especially the Euro, should deserve a huge vote of no confidence. I guess all those in Euro land are buying US dollars rather than PMs for wealth protection.

  93. Shalom Bernanke

    Thanks SF, I caught that this weekend. It’s getting treacherous out there! Nobody can be trusted in this “industry”, or at least not many.

    For the rest of my life, I’m probably finished trading futures. It’s already been almost 2 years since I touched any besides the ES. I have concerns with brokers as well, and I suspect the rats at the Fed will have to step in with more confetti to make investors whole at some point, although that paper will be worth even less than it already is, and it’s not much solace.

    This business has been great to me. It’s difficult to accept that it’s vanishing before my eyes, but that is what I have to do. More than any other, this biz is founded in trust on the other side of the trade, and I see these relationships breaking daily.

    Looks like an early retirement for me, so I have that to look forward to! LOL!!

  94. Shalom Bernanke

    And many will not come out the other side intact. This goes for pensions as well.

    I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but I call ’em like I see ’em. Passive acceptance of the conditions will not be rewarded, IMO. I’m trying to protect what I’ve made first and foremost, and if things stay cobbled together for another couple years, it can grow some too.

    In ’08 we saw many dislocations, and I wondered then how long it would take for the average, disinterested citizen to realize the ramifications. It appears this time is now directly ahead. The ONLY way out, if one can call it a solution, is to print like no tomorrow and debase the dollar to dust. We should be ok in that scenario, but anything else and everybody is gonna get hurt badly, including me. Most will not buy miners, or metals, and they get smashed even if the rats turn on the presses.

  95. Gary

    Technically you can’t get a H&S top at a bottom. That being said we should still have a couple more months before this correction is finished so there is a good chance silver will retrace to it’s breakout at $21 just like I said it would and Basil so vehemently disagreed with.

    He also assured me that he would massively outperform the model portfolio by just buying and holding. I think we might be going to put that theory to test over the next two months.

    As of right now buying and holding gold since the first of the year has underperformed the model portfolio by 5%. Silver…well that one isn’t even worth comparing.

    The aggressive portfolio has massively outperformed the buy and hold strategy.

  96. Gary

    And this only includes the returns since July because that’s when I began the model portfolio format.

    If we include the rest of the year then we still have sizeable gains from the silver run even though we didn’t time the exit perfectly.

  97. Gary

    It differs by individual position size and risk management skills, but as long as one didn’t get stupid with leverage they should have easily doubled the model portfolio.

  98. Michael

    SB,

    “We should be ok in that scenario, but anything else and everybody is gonna get hurt badly, including me. Most will not buy miners, or metals, and they get smashed even if the rats turn on the presses.”

    Would you mind explaining a bit more what scenario would cause PMs and miners to drop although the feds print.

    Your posts are greatly appreciated..

  99. Russell

    1663, the 150 dma seems to be holding for now. Jim Sinclair notes that a big holder is liquidating for cash. He also notes that limits being discussed on foreign exchange may be a plus for gold. I know he is a permabull, but just like a broken clock, they can be right ocassionally.

  100. Gary

    I think we all know that Brutus is Basil… but just to humor you, what truth would that be that you speak of?

    You did claim that a buy and hold strategy would outperform my model portfolio. So far it has not. If you follow your strategy then you are holding on through this correction so your buy and hold strategy gets further and further behind every day.

  101. Wav_ridah

    Danno,
    Careful with that UUP short. Gann360 just posted a UUP chart on twitter showing price breaking out by gapping up out of a bull flag through long term resistance.

  102. Shalom Bernanke

    Michael,

    I wasn’t referring to those that buy PM or miners, or that they would go down in a printing scenario. My implication is that printing is the only way out, and even then it will only help those in metals b/c everybody else with savings, pensions or anything else that can be eroded along with the dollar will not keep up. If they choose not to print and instead got he route of default, wars, etc, perhaps even the PM holders will have it tough for some time.

    Jayhawk,

    I think Tocqueville is as good a choice as any. I’m just trying to minimize the amount of middlemen b/t me and my money while keeping it parked the in the best place (metals, miners, and possibly a few other commod stocks) for the next several years. One benefit of your fund is that you won’t be easily tempted to sidestep every little shakeout. It’s necessary to be already invested if these dislocations do occur, and those that think they’ll recognize the exact moment to go all-in are going to find that approach very difficult. Imagine how hard it’ll be to decide you must move everything into gold after it’s jumped $500 in 3 days, from whatever price a move like this occurs. It’s all ahead of us.

    Good luck, play tight!

  103. Haggerty

    Gary

    when people talk smack about how their portfolio is up way more than yours year over year…..Do they actually believe themselves or do they know they are full of $hit?

  104. ILUVPMS

    Gary,

    Im a bit shocked at how you think the buy and hold strategy doesnt work…

    if you held from 2009 till now youre still up…

    I dont get it, why do people get all flustered when we get corrections in a bull run… its bound to happen, you use excess cash to buy stocks when they are 15-20 percent on sale (1st tranche) then you buy lower…

  105. Gary

    ILUVPMS,
    Because very few people bought at the exact bottom and then held on through all the volatile corrections.

    The vast majority bought much later, and or close to the top. So they are losing some or most of their profits.

    This is why it’s much harder to make money in a bull market than you would like to have everyone believe.

    Human emotions come into play. Most people buy when their emotion of greed is in control. They sell when fear takes over.

    The vast majority of investors buy at tops and sell at bottoms. That’s why most people lose money in a bull market.

    My strategy, and the tools I use to implement it, allow me to buy low and sell fairly close to tops so that we can short circuit the pattern of buying high and selling low.

    Like I said my strategy is to keep as many people as possible riding the bull market. That means I have to deal realistically with the emotional impulses of 99% of investors. And I have to use strategies that allow me to work with, instead of against, our basic human emotions.

  106. Gary

    I would also point out that there is at least a 50-50 chance that this is going to be much more than just a normal correction.

    This could be a D-Wave decline. No one, and I mean no one (that includes you) will want to ride out a D-Wave.

    If this does turn into a D-Wave you are going to give back a very substantial percentage of your gains since the bottom in 09, and then you’re going to spend one maybe two years waiting for those losses to be recovered.

    And whatever you may claim right now, the reality is that unless you are a robot you are not going to be able to hold on through that kind of correction. At some point you’re going to freak out and sell, probably pretty close to the bottom.

  107. Ken

    Gartman: “Gold to drop to $1450 to $1500” which means we should be buying sooner rather than later because Gartman is always wrong! πŸ˜‰

  108. ckpc

    So, WW,

    Is it a good sign if gold holds the 150 DMA and closes above the 1666 mark today?
    Or is it insignificant? (ie. it could just as easily drop another $50 tomorrow?)

    Looks like the DOW is trying to close above 12,000.

  109. ...at ease

    WW,
    I would send you a pic of my screen 5 min chart, however my AOL won’t attach any screen shots.
    Under the 10 SMA while the candles were under it and now following it on top of 10 sma, I see periodic parts of candles at the 1660 to 1664 price range. approx 10:10 am, 10:20, 10:50 am, 11:55 am, 12:05 pm etc timeframes. Last one looks like at 3:10 pm.
    Just looks like candles that were pooped from the tree “rather than low hanging fruit”. Said I was looking for low hanging fruit and found birdie poops instead. Just wondering as I never saw those consistently show up through out a days trading screen. ( tried to draw it out, but it doesn’t work on this blog posts here). πŸ™‚

  110. Gary

    Seriously do you people even read what I write? Let me try this again. Read carefully.

    Gold has to break $1535 to confirm a D-wave. Until it does I’m assuming it’s a B-wave.

  111. Ken

    I’m really looking forward to that the next intermediate (D-Wave or B-Wave) bottom Gary. The DXY’s move today is pushing all the way up against the upper BB but it looks like it’ll close inside. Maybe that’s why the BOW is so high today? Maybe we’ll see the market open lower and the USD open higher in the morning, and BOTH will reverse as Ben Bernanke runs his mouth after the FOMC Statement is released and Steve Liesman asks him about QE3 in the Q&A session? I’m watching the DXY/EURO, CRB Index and WTIC for clues.

  112. ...at ease

    LOL @ Gary

    You probably need to post that at the top of every new post.

    AUUOOOGA, AUUOOOGA… “D” WAVE ALERT:
    D WAVE CONFIRMATION IF 1535 BREACHED.

  113. Jayhawk

    No I didn’t short oil. I’ve not done well attempted to short anything the past few years so I’m letting that whole idea go. πŸ™‚

    I like buying intermediate bottoms and riding those puppies.

  114. James

    Come on, do you guys realise that any meaningful downside in gold would make the chart look lile a broken parabola? It would take months to recover from that…

  115. Gary

    Jayhawk,
    Exactly!! Selling short is tough to make money. I suspect that for most people if they would honestly look at their long term results they will find that trying to sell short has cost them more money than they have made.

    For one there is no tool that I know of that consistently spots tops. Tops form differently than bottoms. They almost always generate multiple whipsaws. And the majority of the decline occurs very late in a cycle so you are always at risk of a bottom and violent counter trend rally catching your position.

    It’s so much easier just using our cycles tool to spot bottoms.

  116. coolkevs

    DeMark update:
    Well, the NEM call isn’t working out so well today, is it? There are still 7 days left of the DAILY BUY signal, though.
    AAPL did record and perfect it’s DAILY SELL Setup 9 today, so look for a 1-4 day downside reaction (Tuesday – Friday). Perhaps back down to it’s 200-day MA?? Not good for the general market.
    Volatility – huh, well looking at the VIX on a MONTHLY Chart (thinkorswim Sequential), I’m seeing Bar 11 of 13 of a SELL signal coming to pass. But Bar 13 will need to have a high greater than Bar 8 (June 2010) of 37.38, but that’s not today’s business.

  117. Haggerty

    Jayhawk

    Oh well, so far that would have been a nice call. Like Gary say’s I too find it hard to be short in this market. I remember you buying AGQ at around 130 at I think the 150ma, back in the day, that was a great call. Come around more often, you bring value to this blog.

  118. William Wallace

    Some tops can be indentified and shorted (as I identified the 1760 top recently when I took off my long at 1755), though it is very hard to identify the ones that drop out of the sky.

  119. Jayhawk

    Hey now thanks…Not very original, I was just following Gary and Doc for the most part. Without the cycle guys, I’d be buying tops and selling lows. πŸ˜‰

  120. Danno

    ^ What I meant to say is that 1,614 is the most one could reasonably expect from that H&S pattern. Price may, or may not, actually sink that low.

  121. coolkevs

    Here’s a few important ones from the Demark perspective:
    ZN – 10 year Treasury Futures are showing a MONTHLY perfected SELL setup (using thinkorswim Sequential study). This means January through April might not be the time for this “safety” instrument.
    TLT MONTHLY is on Bar 8 of 9 of a SELL setup, but has some work ahead if it is to record. Bar 9 (January) will need to close above 120.08. Also, to perfect the signal (full exhaustion), either this month or next month will need to have a high above the October high of 125.03. But then (finally) should result in a good short side bet to the treasury downside.
    The vehicle of choice to short seems to be the TBT, which is showing Bar 9 of the MONTHLY BUY Setup. It’s not perfected, though, needing a lower low below October’s 17.99 to give you a good buying opportunity.
    With all of these SELL/BUY setups, they should show a 1-4 bar reaction (months, in this case). So, near-term we may see some more treasury upside, but after that shorting them should be a good bet into early spring!

  122. ILUVPMS

    i dunno gary… i just rode a 30 pecent correction in silver… and didnt mind it… i dont mind riding another correction in gold to 1200.. if that happens my miners will be underwater and profits erased.. ill sell more gold and buy more miners… Oh yes, the cash i have on hand will be used ot by those cheap miners as well…..

    Like i said, a massive correction, if it does happen will be very much welcomed…. when it does ill be chatting to you day by day on my emotional stability lol :

  123. basil

    ‘Gary said: I think we all know that Brutus is Basil’

    Can’t you tell that I don’t need alternative avatars to quantify what I want to say. I mean my comments are blunt and elaborate enough, right?

    Unlike some one else who uses two pseudonyms, -Gary Savage / Toby Connor – I don’t see the use of creating a second name for myself. I would get confused.

    I remember that I read one of your posts a few weeks ago where you suggested I was posting as some one else, can’t remember the name, but it wasn’t the name Brutus. So I guess I’m at least three people here, yes? Perhaps I am all the people who are critical of you? Perhaps I am even Beanie. There’s food for thought… πŸ™‚

    Since you’re the one who suspects others of using several avatars and since you’re the one who writes under two pseudonyms (who in finance does that?) wouldn’t you think it’s much more likely that you’d be the first to use more than one avatar on this blog?

    Wouldn’t surprise me one bit.

  124. basil

    Jim Rogers is frequently introduced as ‘billionaire investor Jim Rogers’ and I never saw him object, so I suppose he possibly is a billionaire then, wouldn’t you say?

  125. basil

    Gary,

    you’re here six days ’til Sunday to tell people how great you are, so I really cannot keep up with that. I’ve already stated my thoughts in yesterday’s comments and have nothing to add, with the exception that you misinterpret what my investment strategy is.

    I also want to answer Wav_ridah’s question from 10:29: Wav_ridah: ‘Gary, what kind of returns have you generated with the aggressive portfolio, if you don’t mind me asking?’

    Wav_ridah,
    I cannot answer for Gary because I am not a subscriber to his aggressive portfolio, but I am assuming that the returns of the aggressive portfolio are probably ‘the best in the world’?

  126. Gary

    Jeez give it a rest. No matter what I do you’re never going to be satisfied. If I lose money you would be on here night and day. If I make money, it’s never enough.

    Please just go away.

  127. MrMiyagi

    Jim Rogers net worth, not that I give a rat’s ass.

    Basil, you have said some interesting things in the past and I have always stayed open minded to everyone’s input. You clearly don’t seem to be deriving any information to help your investment strategy here so perhaps it would be best if you spent your energy elsewhere for your sake. This is not a kindergarten playground, no one needs to best the other and you and Gary are just wasting eachother’s time it seems.

  128. Poly

    Gold’s pattern looks set to waterfall, seen that pattern enough times. But we could be talking just 1-3 days down to the low $1,600’s for a DCL.
    An explosive move back to the bottom of the triangle could draw in enough for the final death blow in Jan. Just an observation.

  129. basil

    Gary,

    try by not responding to trolls like me with comments that need to be corrected; that would almost get you what you’re asking for. And if you feel that confident about your performance you shouldn’t answer to trolls anyway, you’re folks are telling you that every time, right?

    The other thing is that I get this uncontrollable urge to put things straight if people are telling the world how incredible great they are, particularly when they are underlining that with not so true statements. I just cannot help it. It’s just a compulsive thing I have, and believe me, it bothers me too.
    However, I am rarely here making comments, it’s just that yesterday you were gushing so much about your performance, that I just couldn’t stop myself. But I promise, I’ll keep trying πŸ™‚

    Have a good day!

  130. basil

    Mr. M,

    some times I get sentiment ideas here, and some times I visit the blog for contra-indicators. Whenever I do that I am trying to abstain from commenting, but some times it’s just too hard (see my above explanation). I know it bothers you, but I thank you for at least giving a very civil response, leading by example. I will keep trying, I promise.

  131. Poly

    I don’t know why non-subscribers (trolls) would want to waste there time. Why? For the good of others, please!

    Maybe if they were not so obviously committed in being disruptive and instead offered real constructive commentary, including the praise, they would be taken seriously and have their point expressed.

    But remember markets are always rapidly changing and so traders must be responsive and adaptive, meaning they could be wildly bullish one day and extremely bearish the next. As an author, this is difficult to express without losing some of the audience, but it is always the author’s prerogative and is essential.

    What matters above all in the end is the result, can you argue there? I didn’t think so.

  132. basil

    google

    ‘billionaire jim rogers’

    and see what’s coming up if you care to.
    As he is a private investor, I don’t think he’s handing out his bank account statements to anyone.

    Whether he’s a billionaire or has 300mio, no one knows and it doesn’t matter. It matters that he’s richer than anyone writing on this blog and that he became that rich because he knows more and times the market better than anyone writing on this blog.

  133. Danno

    Wav_ridah,
    Yes, I had (and have) a UUP ‘short’ made of Dec and Jan 22 puts. The position is trashed. The Dec’s are DOA. Jan’s aren’t worth enough to bother logging in and selling them. Fortunately, that was just a small trade representing about 7% of my brokerage account balance. I was gambling. And I know better. Live and learn. (Or not!) I agree that UUP could explode higher from here. A MACD crossover of the signal line so high above the zero mark can cause an explosive move higher. The real test will be if UUP can surpass the two peaks that threatened to form a double top.

  134. Veronica

    My gold system remains on a buy and has not established a stop yet, which is very unusual behavior as it is usually established with or soon after a buy.The US dollar index went to a buy today.

  135. Phil

    I have this strange feeling that Bennie is going to let something slip tomorrow that will throw a wrench into the works. Whether it’s an early announcement of MBS purchases or extending ZIRP to 2014 or something else unexpected. Otherwise it seems like all of this is way too ‘neat and clean’ based on cycles and technical analysis.

    With this type of volatility, everyone constantly on edge, fund managers fighting for their jobs, etc…I just don’t see the extended $ rally needed to fuel extended and severe ‘corrections’ in the PMs and stocks over the next several weeks….

  136. MrMiyagi

    basil;
    No worries, what you post does not bother me, I am all for free exchange of ideas. What Jim Rogers or Mr Rogers are worth is of no consequence to me as I am not related to either one so the odds of being in their wills are about as good as my winning an Oscar.
    I understand what you say and from reading everyone’s post on any given day I weed out what is irrelevant to me. Everyone needs to make up their mind even if I were to tell all of you that I am Bill Gates and I will sell Microsoft tomorrow for 10 cents a share (I am not).
    The contrarian opinions you post are to me just as important as any other so let`s stop the bickering and continue the exchange of ideas.

  137. Danno

    “You can’t get a H&S top at a bottom.” Gary is right. It is possible, however, for a H&S pattern (not a H&S top but a H&S pattern) to form at the bottom of a long down trend… and that H&S pattern can resolve downward. It is after this resolution down that you want to go long, because a H&S pattern that forms (and resolves down) at the end of a long down trend has a high probability of marking the beginning of a major uptrend. Calling the potential H&S pattern in the dollar a ‘H&S top’ was a slip of the tongue by me and probably common mistake.

    Wav_rida’s H&S in gold is an ugly H&S where the right shoulder is far too high above the left shoulder to produce an ideal downward resolution. That’s why I wasn’t thrilled when Wav first posted it. But it has resolved down, no doubt. However, it’s downward gains may be limited (FYI for shorts). I would not hold out hope for a substantial sell off based on that H&S pattern alone. It will be fortunate to achieve the average price target, which would be about 1614.

    FWIW

  138. Danno

    Although downward gains might be limited based solely on Wav_ridah’s H&S… it is possible that the much larger triangle pattern could push gold lower. I haven’t formed an opinion on the triangle’s potential yet. Not that anyone cares. My account just lost -7% so what do I know. d’oh

  139. Robert

    From Ted Butler-on the price moves of gold/silver
    “I use the word incomprehensible to describe the daily price changes because I know the price volatility cannot be explained in terms related to normal supply/demand factors. Gold does not normally fluctuate $40 to $50, nor silver by a dollar or more, in a very short time frame with little direct news. This being the case, I also know this volatility is unnerving to most investors and observers. Therefore, it is important to try to understand the cause behind the great volatility. Clearly, the volatility can be traced to the relatively new trading mechanism of computerized High Frequency Trading (HFT), chiefly encouraged by the CME Group to enhance their trading fee revenue. Simply put, the unnerving price volatility would not exist were it not for HFT activities.”
    “In a very real sense, many markets, including gold and silver, have been overtaken by the rise of day trading computer robots and algorithms. On a typical day, more than 90% of all trading volume on the COMEX is conducted by HFT programs. This has been acknowledged by the markets’ prime regulator, the CFTC. It is easy to demonstrate that this HFT activity is day trading by changes in daily open interest. Therefore, this trading is of no real benefit to legitimate hedging or price discovery. In essence, all this HFT activity is only to the benefit of the few traders involved in it and all other market participants, including legitimate hedgers and the vast bulk of outside investors, are held captive by it. Barring regulatory intervention, all the long term investor can do is to steel himself against the irrational daily price volatility and use it, where possible, to his advantage (such as buying on extreme price declines). Day-trading induced pr ice volatility, as much as it unnerves us, will not influence long term price trends.”

  140. Gary

    B-waves & D-Wave’s have nothing to do with fundamental supply and demand. They are profit-taking event’s and are driven by regression to the mean forces and human emotions.

    These people don’t understand how basic human instincts and emotions work and that’s why they seek to explain corrective moves as a conspiracy.

  141. Shalom Bernanke

    Although I believe markets are manipulated, I agree that there are other, legitimate forces of supply and demand that influence prices the majority of the time. Butler’s arguments are too convoluted to be rational even if he might be correct at times.

  142. Shalom Bernanke

    Not me, sooner or later those who short gold will be put out of business. It’s the same with all bull markets, and I recall many traders put out of business during the internet boom trying to short names like CMGI, INKT, etc.

  143. Gary

    I’m tired of the trolls for now. I’ve switched the blog to comment moderation. If you wish to discuss the markets please do so on the website comment board.

  144. Greggy_M

    Gary,

    Any thoughts to what might be causing the huge price discrepancy’s between
    nugt & dust. GDX is up .90%
    nugt made a lower low and is still down 1.22% while dust is down 8.83%. Makes me wonder if these are safe vehicles…

  145. coolkevs

    More DeMark:
    CL – Light sweet crude oil futures: Today, is showing a DAILY Perfected Sequential SELL – good for 2 1/2 weeks, but need a bearish price flip (close below the close 4 days earlier) – so, if today’s close is below 100.55. On the WEEKLY chart, it shows a WEEKLY 13 Sequential SELL last week. Good for 12 weeks, so into early March. Need a bearish price flip to confirm (close below the close 4 weeks earlier) – so if Friday is below 97.79. There is also an overlapping perfected WEEKLY SELL setup as well recording this week, so a 1-4 week reaction – could be a rough one for crude oil into the beginning of the year!
    As I keep mentioning, I am getting this stuff from the thinkorswim study Sequential and have found it doesn’t necessarily match with what I’ve read from Kevin Depew and others. Setups (the 9’s) match much better than the Sequentials (13’s) from what I can tell.

  146. sophia

    Can someone explain to me what happened? I just got back and the DX is at 80 and market unchanged? What happened? Middle East disaster?

  147. My Life My Trade

    I am amazed at how many people are throwing crap at Gary.

    From time to time … in fact more often than not, my views were contrary to Gary’s… but inspite of that I have utmost respect for Gary’s analysis..

    I like his read on the stock market much better than the PMs – but then thats just me πŸ™‚ and I know I can be wierd…

    I dont need to know the performance of hundreds of other hedge funds.. 23% in 5 months is an awesome performance… regardless of the kind of the market.. In fact even if S&P went up 23% in 5 months… I dont know of many people who would be able to hold their long positions for that long… Here 23% was made WITHOUT leverage and in absolutely insane market conditions… Hats off to Gary.

  148. John

    if silver does not reverse right now, then I’m wrong about head fake, this is the line in the sand .. still think it will reverse

  149. Greenspansconscience

    No debt monetization=high risk of a waterfall decline across all markets.

    Bernanke is definitely playing with fire.

    My thesis assumed he would be forced to keep printing or face a wholesale destruction of the markets. We are due for a bounce, but i could easily see gold settling below $1400 based on a black candle on the weekly chart that was never negated around the $1300 level.

  150. Shalom Bernanke

    How’s that for a test? And I think I’ll likely get basted some more before it gets better.

    Nice call, G-man. I can withstand a lot more pain than this, but it now looks like I might have to. About the only positive on my end right now is that I haven’t been buying the last few days. I’m keeping the rest of my powder dry until you give the green light. In the meantime I’ll just stick to my overall plan and portfolio stops, should they get hit.

    Good luck, fellers! πŸ™‚

  151. sophia

    well done W2!
    what saved my day was my long DX! wow, what a sudden move on the Euro/$…will take profit on this one by Thursday…LOL

  152. sophia

    Poly,

    just saw your twitter…do you think that the dollar is done rallying now? would love to close my little long DX with a profit and was hoping for a bit higher level than 80.30…what do you think? are we getting close to the turn? I know that Opex weeks are always tricky to trade…Thanks for your help

  153. TrendTraderBH

    Bought a very small position of GDX yesterday at the close, sold it (luckily) near today’s high for a small profit, then promptly gave it back today by going long TNA and stopped out for also a very small loss. Tough market to day trade….

  154. Le Fou

    TZ(GARY weigh in if you have any advice),

    I finally found out why it’s not a good idea to use “Last” for a trade trigger. I was holding some profitable puts, and I wanted to protect my profits, so I set a trigger in the underlying “greater than or equal to Last”. The price was 30.42. The stock was coming back at the end of the day, but it never got close to 30.42. It closed at 29.82. Still, my trigger fired 2 1/2 min before the close on a transaction called “Intermarket sweep”. Apparently, the MM can close out a large trade with orders he has on the books at the price he has on the books which might be any price. There is no bid/ask on these trades, so if my trigger had been on bid/ask it would not have fired.

    Of course if the spreads are wide then there’s a good chance of an early trigger. I guess the best plan is to use “Ask” on short trades and “Bid” on long trades. Have you any better suggestions?

    Good trading,
    Le Fou

  155. TZ(8155)

    LE FOU,

    Yes, using “last” makes your stop trigger for any single trade, no matter how crazy, that crosses the tape – even if that trade is later retracted or due to some weird rule (and there seem to be a lot of them).

    Bid and ask are actual MONEY offers to buy and sell a security at REAL prices and are therefore much less likely to be fake or erroneous.

  156. Le Fou

    TZ,

    What about the last sentence:

    I guess the best plan is to use “Ask” on short trades and “Bid” on long trades. Have you any better suggestions?

    Any comment there?

    TIA,
    Le Fou

  157. Γ‰amonn

    If we get to $1535, are we lickly to rocket up again to new all time highs in the next IT cycle, or will it be a slow grind up? What do you think WW? Thanks for any opinions

  158. TZ(8155)

    FOU,

    I mostly trade futures so I don’t have to worry much about the games in stocks with errant ‘last’ trades and flash crash widenings of bids and asks.

    Call it as you see it. You know enough to evaluate the pros and cons.

    For each choice just ask yourself ‘what can go wrong’ or ‘how can somebody take my money’

  159. James

    William,

    Imho, the gap down in gold yesterday during cash hours makes the gold chart look like silver and therefore very ugly. I don’t think the bull will recover anytime soon.

  160. Gary

    Barring the announcement of a new trillion dollar QE program gold will almost certainly have to consolidate for six months to a year before breaking out to new highs.

  161. TZ(8155)

    >Barring the announcement of a new trillion dollar QE program gold will almost certainly have to consolidate for six months to a year before breaking out to new highs.

    Yes, but if you look at the history of all those previous consolidations you will see that the significant lows (generally every month or so…perhaps coincinding with your cycles) usually hold during each subsequent low.

    Thus, if you can get in on one low and buy, then do it again at the next low and so on (as they increase; during the consolidation), then each buy will hold ASSUMING you put your stop at that low (cause the next low is almost always a bit higher).

    In this case, I would say the low that is going to hold is 1535. Although it might also be 1585 or 1604.7 (the lows after the 1535 low).

    We are in the process of finding the next low that will hold in this consolidation zone.

    I am trading off of two assumptions:

    1) the mid october low of 1604.7 will hold.

    if that fails.

    2) 1535 will hold.

    I’m going to spend approx 2% net worth on each of those assumptions and buying the zone right here is based on the first. If that fails I buy closer to 1535. If that fails I’m down 4% and we have some sort of crazy D wave.

    The ability to get into a low position that holds with a safe stop is worth 2% or 4% to me and is conducive to how I buy on moves down.

    We will see.

  162. William Wallace

    Eamonn,

    Like Gary said it will take 6 months to a year, all past corrections over the last 10+ years take atleast that long to make new highs. Gold makes big moves fast now, so it is possible that it rockets off the 300dma and makes new highs quicker this time around, but it depends on what the dollar is doing.

  163. TZ(8155)

    Like I said, if we are in a bullish consolidation the main point is that usually significant (separated by a month or two) lows hold.

    Either the low mid oct or the main low in sept for gold should hold (Unless we have a calamity move down, but that is what stops and risk control are for).

    That first low mid oct is only 2% below where we are now. I’m gonna make a bet that it holds.

  164. TZ(8155)

    And since this is a bull and surprises come to the upside (bull’s shake people off), the more time I can be long (with small stops) the higher my odds of catching an unexpected move up that leaves everybody else behind.

  165. William Wallace

    TZ,

    If the 300dma doesn’t hold, currently at 1536, then gold will bottom on the 75 week MA (currently 1487), as it has every other time over the last 10+ years, except for the 08 correction.

  166. Gary

    TZ,
    I’m just not that impatient to trade. Gold is in a confirmed downtrend and the next intermediate cycle low isn’t due until next year. I don’t feel the need to take riskier than normal trades because I know I’m going to get the mother of all opportunities this spring.

    If everything lines up for a counter trend trade then I will take it. If not then I’m happy to twiddle my thumbs and wait for the yearly cycle low.

    More than anything I intend to get to that major cycle bottom with all my cash (and profits) intact.

  167. TZ(8155)

    GARY,

    I’m just giving my angle. It is different from yours. So is WW’s, etc.

    Not trying to convince anybody to join. Just giving some rational as to what I’m seeing.

  168. TZ(8155)

    Gary, I’m not being impatient by the way. This is one of my *systems*.

    You have cycles (which I follow and add on to), but buying these crashes down is a method I follow.

  169. Gary

    There’s nothing wrong with taking a Bollinger band trade here. The odds of this being a more significant intermediate bottom are pretty slim though.

  170. Danno

    TZ(8155),
    It would help clarify your ideas if you stated your time frame. Just looking for a quick 1-3 day scalp on a bounce or..? I’ve seen people jump on here and make a statement that freaked others out, only to learn later the trade was just a quickie.

  171. William Wallace

    I took off the $1633 gold long at the $1640 handle tonight. I would like to see a push above $1645 to put the long back on. I believe if gold is going to reverse tonight its going to be at this level.

  172. William Wallace

    I would like to think we have a bottom here, but its possible we see a move down to the 200dma, and I would rather take the 7 points off here and wait for confirmation.

  173. thedocument

    Gary,

    I would be very careful about assuming the next intermediate low won’t arrive until spring. The current decline is acting very much like an intermediate cycle decline, not just a daily one. There is a sense of panic in the PM market. Gold and silver both sport sentiment readings well within the zone that usually greets ICLs. Bullish percent for gold miners is about as low as it gets without an outright market crash. Furthermore, dollar sentiment has reached an extreme high… even higher than October’s reading… meaning the dollar is likely feeling out an intermediate cycle peak here.

    I know it seems strange to be looking for an ICL in gold on Week 11, but consider that the last cycle ran only 13 weeks. A short cycle will usually be followed by a long cycle so they balance out, so to speak, to an average time frame. However, gold cycles just don’t usually run as short as 13 weeks. With that level of truncation, seeing an 11 or 12-week cycle could very very “balance” things out since the two cycles sum up to a regular-length cycle.

    Finally, the CRB is in the process of either setting a final 2.5-year cycle low or forming a new one off the October low. With commodities ready to rally, I seriously doubt gold will be in decline for 7-13 more weeks.

  174. Gary

    I noticed the dollar sentiment this evening also. That could be a game changer although I still think gold will be coming out of a B-wave and I expect it will still need to consolidate longer before any sustained break above $1900 is possible.

  175. thedocument

    Yes, well gold tends to meander out of ICLs anyway, so even if we miss the low, there should be opportunities to cherry pick the daily cycles. I have been saying since spring, however, that the Fed will most like start QE3 at their January meeting. They can’t wait too long to juice the election, and I would hate to underestimate what a new round of printing could do for PMs.

  176. Gary

    It’s politically impossible for the Fed to announce another round of quantitative easing. That being said M2 has been rising since August so they are already printing. Whether or not they can stomp on the gas and get away with it at this point remains to be seen.

    This is why I have been hesitant to enter any trade on UUP. I just don’t trust Bernanke with our currency.

  177. Arive

    Regarding QE3 and timing, I agree with Mish’s points below – namely that oil and food prices are pretty high right now.

    1930s, Fed policy was to inflate the $ against the gold; this century it will be to inflate it against oil and if oil is so high right now, to juice it up further with QE3 before election year doesn’t sound effective.

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

  178. Blindweb

    Maybe I’m missing something, but if one is correct about gold being in a bull market, and that silver will follow it at a multiple, one should be able to use a small amount of leverage almost without fail if the risk is spread out over a long enough period. You only need a small amount of trading skills and risk management skills.

    For silver to hit say $250 and gold $5000 by the end of 2017 you’d need yearly gains of 53% and 25% respectively. That would be a silver 24% half-yearly average gain. I can buy a July 2012 29 slv call for 4.55. Probability, under my parameters, says it’ll be worth 8.00 at expiration. A 76% gain. Obviously theres a little more to it (particularly picking a good entry point), but if you spread your risk out over time and manage to avoid a couple big drops you should do well.

    Seems to me the goal to beat is the average of gold 25% and silver 53% at 39% per year. (And yes I know that’s putting all ones assets in one area, but I don’t see the risk any greater than being all in cash at a broker, or all in stocks and/or bonds)

    I’ve been trading for 2 years and this is what I’ve done. 1) 45% physical silver, 2) 45% physical gold, 3) 10% trading
    2010:
    1) +75% 2) +28% 3)+120% = Total +58%
    2011:
    1) -1% 2)+15% 3)+180% = Total +24%
    Now maybe 2012 I’ll be flat or negative, but if that happens then soon after there will be a year when silver is up 100%-200% and gold up 50%.

    This is with very minimal effort. And in my mind very little risk. Yes, risk is very subjective.

    Possible problems: Deflationary collapse – gains won’t be as good but purchasing power will go up, worth the risk; caught in a collapse at the end of the gold bull – should be easy to spot and be out way ahead; taxation or outlawing ownership of gold and silver (particularly with silver being a possible strategic military metal) – should be able to diversify before that comes as well.

    IMO in 1-3 months we’re going to have a string of announcements like: FED buying mortagages, US debt/GDP crossing 100%, ECB’s real plan, IMF bailout, etc. I’m probably going to go back long PMs in a month. Gary’s obviously an excellent trader but his style doesn’t jive with mine. I prefer to use macro analysis, basic charting, personal sentiment analysis, and buy 3-6 month out ATM or OTM options to sit on.

  179. TZ(8155)

    I think we still may go a bit lower but not all the way to 1600. I’ve got a stop to limit my loss if I’m wrong.

    I’ve said I’m buying cause I suspect the mid oct low to hold as per fairly normal congestion patterns in gold over the years. If that doesn’t hold then I think the 1535 low will hold and that will be my next trade.

  180. TZ(8155)

    This is clearly picking bottoms as opposed to waiting for a swing as gary does. It has different risk/reward characteristics. I can get much more leverage doing this (with higher profit if right), but it comes at the cost of more losses which I have to manage with small stops.

    Gary will make pretty consistent wins or come out flat in comparison. I will have small dribbling losses perhaps 2 or 3 in a row, but when a buy hits the gains likewise soar. Just how I like to do things (until the don’t work for me. So far ok.)

  181. TZ(8155)

    Note that rallying *UP* to 160 on GLD would appear to be the sweet spot for options expiration by fri and that would give the bounce (or bottom) I’m expecting.

  182. Poly

    Doc, Gary,

    This isn’t a normal ICL so we should not expect to correlate the action with normal ICL behavior. What we have here is a post blow off Intermiadiate cycle and these all behave very differently, they stretch to the absolute downside extremes.
    As for cycle count, you find that post blow off Cycles are actually very short (just like the blow off cycle) so when combined, the blow off and post cycles appear as one long cycle, with two extreme price movements.

  183. William Wallace

    As I expected and mentioned last night gold reversed at the $1645 handle, we should see gold pull back to the 200dma, which will most likely give us a DCL. If the 200 is breached I believe panic will set it and gold will continue to waterfall hard to my 300dma target, which will most likely give us an ICL.

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  185. Gary

    Poly,
    IMO we are seeing a B-wave decline. Those always hold above the D-wave bottom. Sometimes far above the bottom and sometimes they test the bottom.

    Yes gold could continue down into the 1500’s but it will have to do so against extreme bearish sentiment.

    A swing will get me to enter.

  186. EricH

    “I would not look at gold til silver hit the low 20’s. I do believe silver is leading the charge.”

    Agree. Looks like another bear flag break down. Target is low 20s.

  187. Poly

    Gary,

    Agree $1,533 has a solid chance of holding and presenting us with a great opportunity.

    But don’t forget, if this is a B wave, then that was some really lame preceding A wave!

  188. Gary

    Yes it was but I’m taking into account about 7-12 trillion of liquidity that has been dumped onto the world in the last couple of years, and that’s just in US dollars.

  189. Frank

    So who is taking the Bollinger band trade here?

    The 200 may not hold for gold. (Yes, I know that to be precise it is through it as I write this.)

  190. EricH

    “Gold breaks $1600 keep an eye on that 300dma people…this is what we been waiting for.”

    That’s still a LONG way down.
    1531 currently.

  191. ver

    A run on the stops at 1594/1600 would generate the kind of panic selling that may mark a bottom well above the 300-day SMA. Hard to know though if the pull to retest 1535 will be strong enough to overcome. Hmm…

  192. TZ(8155)

    >But don’t forget, if this is a B wave, then that was some really lame preceding A wave!

    The A wave rallied $265.
    Why are all you guys downplaying that rally and calling it crap?
    It rallied the NORMAL AVERAGE of A waves historically. What on earth were you expecting? Rising back up to 1900 is NOT born out by history. Repeat NOT.

  193. Poly

    WW,

    Didn’t see a hallmark plunge and spike on the 1 minute, I say we test $1,600.

    Did you get a moving average confirmation you track?

  194. Tiho

    Look at all these bulls getting killed buying Gold at $1,660, than $1,630, than $1615 and we are still going lower and lower! It is so funny to watch…

    Yes, yes, yes, we all know Gold will go and back the Monetary Base in years to come and even touch Dow Jones nominal value like in 1980; but when something trades for 750 days above 200 day MA and than starts correcting… don’t start buying the first two days it starts dropping hard.

    Common sense says it takes take to work off the gains of 750 days above 200 MA, even if this is THE low, you will still get another chance.

Comments are closed.