286 thoughts on “comment cleaner

  1. Danno

    As of yesterday’s close there is a confirmed Inverse Head & Shoulders in $GOLD (with a complex head). Price closed above the neckline on 02/22 generating a long trade confirmation signal. No doubt gold could stagger around the neckline here for a few days, testing it, like $SPX did before it erupted out of its inverse H&S taking nearly everyone by surprise.

  2. Shalom Bernanke

    Mornin’ fellers! Doesn’t look like there’ll be much to do today as it’s not my time to buy/add, and way too soon to entertain selling. Seems a good day to step away and let the chips fall where they may. Hope everybody can stay on the ride. πŸ™‚

  3. Danno

    SF, It’s just data. I don’t give trade recommendations. Do what you want with the information. You have my permission to print it out and shove it up your ass.

  4. Aaron

    Haha, I must add, that statistically, gold rising more than 3% in a week is a rather rare occurance. Add in options expiration, today, and a pullback should be expected… either way, next week should be a good week

  5. SF Giants Fan

    Danno

    I don’t know where that came from?  Gary’s blogs (only one of which you choose to visit) are made up of some extremely talented people around the world of which I think we all know who they are.  So suggest you return to where comments like that deserve to be posted. Click Here 
    All future postings by you will be ignored.  Thx

  6. sophia

    Miyagi-sensei,

    I agree with your last post…sorry cannot open the SMT webpage, but read it earlier…Tran and Russell are not trading well and now DAX is pucking

  7. Rob L

    Danno,

    Your comments directed at many people, including me, have often been juvenile. The person who needs to keep their mouth shut, or more accurately, their fingers off of the the keyboard, is you.

    It’s time that you grew up, Danno.

  8. Danno

    I have never, ever, ever attacked anyone on this board. Ever. I have only reacted to creeps who pop out of the blue with rude little comments directed at me. All I am doing is learning and sharing information. If you feel that I have attacked you, then you are probably a jerk and too stupid to realize it.

  9. SF Giants Fan

    Mean guy

    The handholding is pretty typical by new subs and others after a portfolio change. As they get more confident the handle holding should lessen. They want to wait until it feels right to buy, but by that time it’s too late (in the cycle).

  10. Rob L

    Danno,

    You have just given a wonderful example of a person with sociopath tendencies. (February 23, 2012 7:03 AM)

    I hope the hospital realizes their mistake and either takes away your computer or your weekend pass.

  11. sophia

    Sold back my little silver contract bought yesterday at 34.05… I kow that it is going higher but I will sleep tonight and reassess…

  12. Dan

    Like I’ve said before, Danno is either (a) a kid (b) an adult with mental issues or (c) a troll who gets a kick out of people’s reactions.

    Either way, I wish Gary would ban him. His constant posts with useless “analysis” and constant attacks drive away the serious traders who share their valuable thoughts.

  13. Dan

    Danno,

    Believe me when I say I’ve been here a whole lot longer than you. Your not even a subscriber for heavensakes. Just here leaching off Gary’s free posts and blog. On top of that attacking everyone and anyone who dares to question your joke of an analysis posts.

  14. Tiho

    With US stocks at resistance, breadth diverging, mutual fund flows back after billions of outflows and sentiment bullish, is anyone here shorting / hedging against the stock market? Or better put, is anyone interested in buying the recent Japanese Yen sell off?

  15. St. Deluise

    guys i don’t want to alarm anyone but.. i think gold might have bottomed.

    for further hot tips and to be put on my super exclusive mailing list mail $200 to whatever cemetary i’m buried in.

  16. Slumdog

    SI is at or has just exceeded the long term declining top line, in the low 35’s.

    Based on history, we are at the crossroads between a longer time in the dungeon slaughtering the SI longs, and a retest of the low 30’s, right now, or we will see an unbelievable rally as I said 2 days ago, straight up, through that line and probably up another 4 bucks.

    At that point, again, an assessment of when profit taking will enter.

    As the target is $100-200 SI if what I and Gary and others are saying, and as I think this is the elbow moment, the long term turn for the climactic high in 1 to 3 years (3 at max) into the 200-300 range, a move in this wave to the low – mid 40’s and even to 50 is to me probable.

    As $50 is a nothing when adjusting $50 of 1980-81 to current let’s say gasoline value, we have a long way to go before SI or even AG are close to parity of the past.

    Sophia, next time you see an entry point, sit down and stay, as in permanently, with your miniSI. Just next time buy it and forget it. Write it off and play with the other trading toys. You will make a year’s income if you’ll leave it alone next time. 35 to 50 will be 15 x 1000. Just leave it alone next time.

    As the move has started, I’ve no comment about when to get in or out; that’s a trading thing… talk to TZ and WW and Gary and Veronica. Just believe as I do, that over the next few years, this is among the 2 best places to be, SI and AG.

  17. MikeS

    Slumdog,

    You are 100% correct where Silver is headed, but not just yet. Low 30’s is more probable over the next 4 weeks starting next week

  18. sophia

    Slumdog,

    Sorry for being such a wimp….ya, well, I had such a tough year last year that if I see 4000 dollars, I take it…
    I agree with you that I will probably miss some big moves unfortunately, but I am building back my confidence and trying to learn from all of you guys.
    Will come back in when I see an entry, still long 4 contracts Gold, and my little favorite miner IPT

  19. Slumdog

    Smartbullion, the chart you posted is what I saw and commented on a few days ago.

    This break has basically 2 outcomes, a trade into the 37-39 range and sideways to mark time, or a continuation into the low mid 40’s.

    All the swings from now on are just to toss off the long riders.

    But it’s not just going to 43-44 where there’s obvious congestion.
    This is the moment I’ve been waiting for… the start of the Long Climb to the Greatest Parabola of our Lifetimes.

    This is the first step of the Long Climb. Those who can take the abuse of the swings, like Bernanke, will be very rich at the end.

  20. sophia

    Slumdog,

    You impressed me that weekend in September when you saw the low at 1535 and rebound for that Monday morning!
    I have to say that I bought yesterday thanks to you….please keep posting your views, they are great and so true!

  21. sophia

    More seriously, it feels like there is going to be a war ….Gold up, stocks down and Oil up big….that is stinky enough for some people in the know….

  22. sophia

    Eammon,

    If you come to London, please come over. My kids are still young, 8,8 and 7, so it is tough for me to move around without them…but I am always happy to have friends around and I can cook you a good meal!

  23. TZ(8155)

    >You are 100% correct where Silver is headed, but not just yet. Low 30’s is more probable over the next 4 weeks starting next week

    There really are reverse H&S patterns on gold and silver despite the danno joking. Both have now headed higher.

    The behavior of metals seems to indicate that the move down into dec low was a manipulated hit. It wasn’t real in the standpoint of reflecting the actual market. So now it is unwinding at fast speed.

    I see VERY strong surges back up near the highs.

    5x gold and about 1x silver and holding.

  24. TZ(8155)

    We will now CLEARLY have weekly buy signals on most trading systems tomorrow (who will add to the buying) and yet we didn’t pause on gold or silver today. (Well..gold is pausing a bit).

    The strength here seems very good and that weekly buying tomorrow should still push us higher.

    A sneaky goldman or somebody else COULD try to run some stops overnight tonight before the final friday buying. There are likely some weak hands who chased, got excited, and could get hit (Harry as example? 8x a bit high no offense).

    On any decline 1760 on gold should hold I think. And the silver break at34.50.

  25. TZ(8155)

    I have 1x silver futures holdings (actually a bit less) right now. About 5x gold. Total leverage about 6x.

    Various levels of stops.

    Backed off gold a bit last night cause I could tell I was getting excited and chasing and, instead, added the silver cause it hadn’t broken higher yet and looked like a better bet. (Even though silver is very volatile and overall I’m not super excited about buying it, but the ability to get in with a solid position before a sharp break higher was irresistable.)

    I got lucky (I said I was feeling the table in my favor) and it worked. My closest stop is near 34.25 which looks pretty strong at this point.

  26. TZ(8155)

    My reason for avoiding silver generally, but deciding to opportunistically jump in on this break is that, just like GDX, my same view holds:

    stockcharts[PUT.DOT.HERE.TO.FIX]com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER:$GOLD&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p93284908898

    This is clearly not a security that appears to be outperforming gold in any way whatsoever (a week or two doesn’t count).

    Lotta damage.

    It is simply easier and LESS risky to buy gold. If I want more return I can just leverage higher instead of messing with silver. Silver whips around. Takes out stops. Has bad slippage. And is less resistant to outside market declines (like a flash crash) than gold.

    So I’m not intending to go crazy on silver unless that chart levels out and turns up nicely like you saw end 2010 which was exactly the time to buy.

    I think it will take a while for silver to ‘reset’ as a proper investment. But the entry last night was cheap and worked. I’ll take it.

  27. ver

    Veronica:

    Did your system establish a stop?

    Congratulations by the way, you’ve consistently nailed it with your signals, at least since I’ve been visiting this forum. I wish I joined you on more of them πŸ™‚

  28. Harry

    Guys, it’s not going to go straight up forever. You’re too leveraged or too wimpy to be trading at all if you’re worrying about an intraday $10 correction after a run like this. This DC still has a week or two left to run, just turn off your computer.

  29. TZ(8155)

    As Jim Puplava says lately, the price of oil/gasoline have become the new fed funds rate.

    Rates are not going up again until this party crashes. But that isn’t what is putting pressure on the world economy anymore. It is the hard cost of paying for energy and fuel.

    With fuel going to $5/gallon and crude sharply marching higher again, we are heading toward another cliff where the economy cracks.

    This on/off plateau is predicted by the peak oil crowd. I think it is real.

    It does this a few times until it becomes obvious to the world that we really do have peak oil and it’s running out. Then oil goes ballistic and the world economy crunches hard into a new paradigm.

    Various peak oil people think that is only a few years away at most.

    (And loss of oil also crashes the debt/fiat/financial system because almost every financial asset and equation is based on compounding growth – which is now over)

  30. William Wallace

    Harry,

    “Guys, it’s not going to go straight up forever. You’re too leveraged or too wimpy to be trading at all if you’re worrying about an intraday $10 correction after a run like this. This DC still has a week or two left to run, just turn off your computer.”

    Well said my friend. Let me say this, if one plans on riding into a parabolic mania they better not only have the stomach to hold through daily draw downs, but hold to the point that they are sick from wondering whether or not its time to sell their gold.

  31. Slumdog

    WW: Let me say this, if one plans on riding into a parabolic mania they better not only have the stomach to hold through daily draw downs, but hold to the point that they are sick from wondering whether or not its time to sell their gold.”

    My 1/4 cent… sell SI at $42.40, and leave that $43-44 last stretch of the reverse HS that you’re seeing to someone else.

    Then wait for the long consolidation which will drive everyone batty.

    Then buy back in the high $30’s and wait for the next run to $48.50, again leaving the rest to “them”.

    Then buy again in the high $40’s and wait for the next Christmas

  32. coolkevs

    I’m lovin’ leverage today – salesforce.com – CRM up big in the after-market – my piddly $100 option investment will probably be worth $1000 tomorrow. You gotta play small and when the rewards hit, they are worth it!

  33. William Wallace

    at ease

    said:

    “WW,
    Are you saying we are all ill or will get ill trading gold futures? ;)”

    If one cant stomach small daily draw downs 5 days into a second daily cycle of an A-wave, how early their “Old Turkey” positions will be taken off when gold goes truly parabolic.

  34. ...at ease

    WW,
    I didn’t see anyone have trouble holding today. All we did was discuss movements in gold/silver in other words (not MAs lingo). See what happens if you are not here. πŸ™‚

  35. riley

    Slumdog took your advice and bought SI and will just roll it, as can’t trade that stuff. Still long 2x gold and holding. The waiting around at M.D. drive you crazy WW. Good luck as always.

  36. ...at ease

    WW,
    I found it fun to see how far down it would go to see where it would bounce off and turn back up. We actually ended up where we started out this morning.

  37. MrSu

    WW,

    I will be pulling for you on the 27th. With hundreds or maybe even thousands of wishes and prayers from here, hopefully, this time will be a success.

    You deserve all the best!

  38. Slumdog

    james r, even though this is a moment for profit taking as the world has rushed into PM’s over the past week and the last fools saw the headlines and bought today, james has no basis for his opinion that I can see other than short term profit taking.

    As an aside, as SI reached for $50, this blog and most others were filled with comments about the huge institutional short in SI. The chant was, “buy the physical and squeeze the shorts”.

    Few here would acknowledge that the banks will not lose, that they have carte blanche with the governments to get money which they borrowed to support greater and greater short positions. They cannot lose.

    So, the next time we see huge institutional shorts, we must be very respectful to them, and agree that they will be correct at some point along the parabolic rise.

    My hope is that Gary will track those shorts because they act as the lid to the move, and when the marginal rate of increase flattens to near zero, as in straight up, like on the night of $49.50, everyone, holding physical, equities or futures must then release our manic panicked grip to wait and watch the inevitable.

    IMO, the short positions of the banks, not the hedge funds, will again lead to a massive profit for them. Heads Up, and please post what you see regarding the growth of those shorts.

  39. james r

    slumdog,

    thanks for the post.

    I noticed $gold has a death cross lurking very close behind.

    Also from the chart $gold is stretching to reach the 1800 mark.

    Could be an exhaustive move tomorrow?

  40. Matt Foley: Motivational Speaker

    Yea, big shooter James bought his 2 shares Iwith his raise from Papa Murphy’s) of ZSL at 10 the other day when he proclaimed the silver run over.

    He’s a 20 year old community college drop out living in his parents basement, but feel free to follow him jamesr.

  41. Shalom Bernanke

    MikeS,

    The $ index obviously didn’t rally against gold, only against other confetti measures. Gold against YOUR dollar has rallied 30% at today’s price, and got as high as +40%vs dollars at the high in Sept.

    Don’t miss out, these opportunities don’t come along often. I’m not buying today or tomorrow, but will keep scooping on dips.

  42. Gary

    Tiho,
    Only because the current daily cycle is still too short to bottom here.

    The dollar is approaching an intermediate bottom which should generate another leg up in the overall rally out of the three year cycle low.

  43. William Wallace

    SF,

    I think so…Im keeping an eye on this C-wave channel upper trendline area for a possible B-wave top, the trendline that was broken when gold went parabolic, I think if gold moves out of this channel again we may see something big.

  44. Rod (RJ)

    Slumdog,

    I’m mostly a lurker these days but want to take the time to thank you for your contributions and for resurfacing.

    I’ll never forget your dynamite triangle post.

    To you and all you other “studs” here (you know who you are) please stay humble and please ignore any BS that goes on in this blog.

    Not worth the energy.

    RJ

  45. William Wallace

    I mentioned yesterday that the 03′ A-wave was the only A-wave that printed a positive divergence over the C-wave top on the True Strength Index, topping around +49(strongest A-wave)… we are already seeing a positive divergence on the Index,currently at +29 I think we will see a push to +50, which should hit right around the C-wave channel upper trendline.

  46. William Wallace

    at ease,

    That would be nice, we may see some sideways chop around $1800.

    I watched the whole parabolic move out of the July bottom to the Sept low in realtime, I missed maybe 2-3 hours a night when gold wasn’t doing much. Im not seeing that type of trade yet, there is no real participation yet out of Asia.

  47. Tiho

    Only because the current daily cycle is still too short to bottom here.

    You didn’t sound like that two weeks ago or two months ago when you were super optimistic on Dollars future right at the top. The evidence I laid out in multi-email posts was so strong that the Dollar topped, yet you had none of it.

    You asked me if I would admit I was wrong, if and when the Dollar makes new highs. I said yes I would. Now that it turned out otherwise, you won’t say it yourself, but just state that it’s “only because of this and that cycle…”

    The dollar is approaching an intermediate bottom which should generate another leg up in the overall rally out of the three year cycle low.

    Anything could happen, and that is also a possibility too. Would I trade or invest into that outlook of another leg up in the Dollar? Personally I wouldn’t. There are over 150,000 net short contracts to be squeezed on the Euro, so I’d rather not buy the Follar at anything everyone else is also bullish on the Dollar too.

    I found through my investment experience you better off not following everyone else, despite what the charts say; and instead being a contrarian than following moving averages, head & shoulders, or some other technical voodoo patterns straight out of amazon jungle.

  48. William Wallace

    Were still seeing profit taking end of day, and at the session open… continuing into the Eurex open and European open, most of the gains are occuring during the US session, usually beginning before the open. When gold starts really moving there will be little profit taking and a steady grind higher right out of the gate, continuing into the Eurex open and European markets open.

  49. Slumdog

    Jimmy Sinclair is talking the talk again… He sees the same thing, the The Greatest Parabola in Our Lives. And it’s coming within just years, not decades, not 5’s, but years.

    He wrote in his blog, “Jim Sinclair told King World News that movements in gold will become so violent that gold will become untradable to individuals. Sinclair also said that gold will be the last great bubble as it goes into a geometric uptrend. Here is what Sinclair had to say about what we can expect to see going forward: “Liquidity, it’s as simple as that. All of this is the event that’s taken place many times in history. Many times in history there has been an inflation caused by volatility in currencies called currency induced cost push inflation.””

  50. William Wallace

    Slumdog – “Jim Sinclair told King World News that movements in gold will become so violent that gold will become untradable to individuals.”

    Absolutely, the violent swings during the topping process of daily and intermediate tops is an almost untradable affair, to hold through the major parabola one will have to convince themselves that they are going to give back every penny and break even, then sell after they are convinced.

  51. Gary

    Tiho,
    I’ve said many times that cycles are mostly worthless for spotting tops. Yes I was expecting one more daily cycle higher before the dollar started moving down into an intermediate low.

    That being said the pattern of higher highs and higher lows is still intact. The dollar would have to drop below 74.70 before we could entertain any thoughts of the three year cycle topping yet.

    So yes I still expect once the dollar cycle bottoms, probably sometime in the next two weeks, that sentiment will have reversed enough to drive another leg up.

    At the moment sentiment is dead neutral in both the Euro and the dollar.

  52. Tiho

    1. Sentiment

    Public Opinion (shorter term more volatile indicator) from SentimenTrader might be neutral on both the Dollar and the Euro, but COT futures positioning (longer term less volatile indicator) is long term Euro bearish – therefore Dollar bullish.

    From a contrarian point of view, shorting Euros, while everyone else is close to record historical short is suicide. I think it is crazy to agree with the majority, majority of the time hehe!

    I rather let the short squeeze run through for several more months, before even entertaining the idea of buying more Dollars against the Euro.

    2. Higher highs / higher lows

    Yes, the Dollar Index is producing higher highs and higher lows. But the Dollar Index is really only the inverse Euro to be honest. Surely we want more confirmation on what the Dollars movement is, rather than just tracking the Euro itself right?

    You do not track S&P 500, just purely based on what Microsoft is doing, do you? Let us ask ourselves – as an exercise of broad Dollar breadth strength – which major global currencies is the Dollar actually making higher higher against, as you claim within the DXY / UUP?

    Well… hardly anything actually!

    – Not against Loonie (just made lower low)
    – Not against Aussie (just made lower low)
    – Not against Kiwi (just made lower low)
    – Not against Sing Dollar (just made equal low)
    – Not against Taiwan Dollar (just made lower low)
    – Not against Korean Won (just made equal low)
    – Not against Thai Baht (just made lower low)
    – Not against Brazilian Real (just made lower low)
    – Not against Russian Ruble (just made lower low)
    – Not against Renminbi (just made lower low)
    – Not against Mexican Peso (just made lower low)
    – Not against S. African Rand (just made lower low)
    – Not against Turkish Lira (just made equal low)
    – Not against Chilean Peso (just made lowerl low)
    – Not against Gold (just made equal Nov high)
    – Not against Silver (just made equal Nov high)
    – Not against Platinum (just made a new high)

    Do you really still think that following the US Dollar Index is the best way to gage Dollars future movement?

    Just because the Euro is weak, does not mean the Dollar is in an uptrend like you state. We have non-confirmation across the whole basket of major global currencies, when compared to the Dollar Index technicals. Same is true when we compare the Dollar vs Precious Metals.

    To summarise:

    If one takes global currency breadth into context for ones own analysis, than one can assume with high probability, that the Dollar has already topped against majority of the global currencies.

    At the same time, Euro’s weakness is making the Dollar Index “look” strong technical, but that is only a mirage or a smoke screen of novice currency investors. Euro has super high weighting within the DXY and that should make us disregard DXY / UUP as a proper barometer of the US Dollar, just as Apple on its own is not the whole technology sector either.

  53. TZ(8155)

    I’m ready to add on a drop tonight (remember I said I think we close on the highs fri), but I’m not sure we get one.

    The strength in this mkt continues to leave people behind and surprise.

  54. James

    Sophia,

    I’m a silver bull at heart but there’s huge resistance in this zone. Should it break through resistance, I will gladly take a loss and go long.

  55. PST

    Tiho,
    Everyone knows that the US has been intentionally devaluing its currency against most world currencies to effect a global rebalancing of demand in an effort to address existing trade imbalances as well as to purposefully export inflation to low cost/wage countries. The fact that the USD has been recently devalued against most other currencies is by design and should not come as a surprise to anyone. In fact, you could argue that that has been one of the great successes of QE as China is now battling persistent inflation and their minimum wage has grown by 20% annually over the last three years. The U.S. needs a weaker dollar to spur growth, but it also needs to maintain confidence in the currency and to attract foreign investment. The strong dollar policy mantra is now just lip service to keep foreign bondholders invested in US Treasuries.

    However, since the US, Japan and the EU still account for 70% of world consumption, the strength of the dollar is still best captured by the dollar index and measured against the relevant currency pairs (EUR, JPY, GBP). It should come as no surprise that these major consumer economies are now the main actors in the global currency devaluations. Against those currencies, the dollar will likely only continue to depreciate against the yen for the foreseeable future or until another BOJ intervention. In terms of the commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD, NOK), these are more closely correlated to the price of their underlying commodity export and tend to fluctuate more as a consequence of global economic demand for their particular export. As long as global demand remains strong for hard commodities, these currencies will continue to appreciate against the large consumer currencies. Any global slowdown, however, will see these exchange rates adjust considerably lower like they did in 2008.

  56. PST

    BTW, before you say it, I am aware that the USD is currently depreciating against 4 of the 6 currencies in the dollar index and that it’s strength is primary the result of the weakening euro. My point is that the dollar index is widely viewed as a good measure of it’s strength vs. the major consumer economies.

  57. Tiho

    PST, I disagree. Trade Weighted Dollar Index is much better, but the best way is to just follow 30 major currencies vs USD yourself. You follow the European basket of currencies, Commodity basket of currencies, Asian basket of currencies, and rest of GEM currencies.

    History shows that unless majority of global currencies confirm the USD Index move, it never lasts for long and usually fizzles out.

    Currently the Dollars bulls say DXY Index is above 200 MA and making higher highs and higher lows. Dollar bears say that really it is only the Euro that is making the Dollar strong, while the Dollar is below 200 MA against half of e major currencies and making lower lows and lower highs against the majority of these global currencies.

    Broad Dollar weakness confirms that the technical picture of the Dollar Index will prove to be wrong as long as weakness remains broad. USD is currently toast and any rallies should fizzle out, no matter what “cycle it is”…

  58. Heads Up

    With the DXY down, gold’s performance seems rather muted. I know GLD moves in spurts, but this morning’s action is plain weak.

    Others’ opinions?

    PS / Good luck to you, WW.

  59. Gary

    Gold got stretched above the 10 DMA. It’s going to have to consolidate for a day or two before the next leg up. The dollar should still have 7-10 more days before bottoming.

  60. Shalom Bernanke

    Buying the late morning dip in miners sure has been a predictable day trade lately. Other than that, today looks like a good day to turn off the ‘puter and enjoy life.

    Good luck!

  61. Slumdog

    James, at what point will you be tapped out of capital?

    What % of your investment/gambling capital did you place in your short?

    At what dollar point will your losses now mounting be large enough that you announce you’ve covered and you’re no longer a player?

    Very few can take the losses you’re taking without major capital erosion, which means player cessation.

    As you’re telling the blog what to do, and IMO, are at very high risk of busting your position and your savings backing it, I’d like to understand your investment posture as it will help me and others “see” what your risk in fact is.

    If you’re worth millions or tens of them, then this is just a waste of your time, a nothing burger, and I’ll see it as such. If you’re attempting wealth accumulation, I’ll see that too.

    TIA

  62. Slumdog

    The RMB/USD number is 6.2930. In the past week, it has bounced around this bottom range.

    What’s happening is that the RMB is locked to the USD I think politically stuck to it. If it slips up in value, there’s a continuing and major risk that once it slips, there will be a dogpile by the other linked currencies, and China will drop into recession as it is priced out of the market.

    The rising cost of energy, which means production cost and transportation cost, will continue to slam at the foundational advantage China has held, cheap labor.

    Hence, I’m all for $10 oil. That will halt China’s advantage and bring work pouring back to US, EU and JP.

    Personally, I don’t care if the 3rd world countries suffer at $3 oil or $10 oil. That’s a different problem. To me, the major problem is China’s having received the manufacturing genie with open arms solely due to labor price arbitrage. That it will be reduced is not a question; it’s a matter of how and when.

    Hence, gold and silver will rise in anticipation of this slip n’ slide event.

    I’m waiting for the earthquake.

    Just like so many of us did in 2006 and pre-crash 2007, it’s easy to identify which companies will be the winners and which the losers when the labor price adjustment earthquake occurs.

  63. Boston-Irish

    WW, I have never posted here before but I wanted to say that I appreciate your posts and come Monday morning I’ll be sending out good thoughts in your direction.

  64. wmp

    WW

    There’s a reason why you have such significant outpouring of well wishers here, you’re a class guy.

    Best of luck next week, heal well and return quickly!

    wmp

  65. Unknown

    Incredibly tight trading range today in gold. I can’t remember the last time I saw gold trade in such a tight range. Classic consolidation day I expect.

  66. SF Giants Fan

    St. Deluise

    Does Tim knight have any money left? Shorts have been crushed, unless they are still holding on for dear life.

    I bet a bunch of people shorted AAPL when it cracked. They must be in the garage with a hammer to their fingers.

  67. MrMiyagi

    NikeB,
    Just basing my view here on gold, silver & oil’s past runs; all time high price, drop back, climb to high price again and then flush.
    Of course, not a guarantee of any sort.

  68. Tiho

    Euro is up big only because everyone hates the currency and is short the Euro when one sees CFTC positioning. Fundamentally, with ECB printing money, one would think

    Euro should decline instead, but obviously with so many net short contracts back in middle of January, persona

    Y I assume the market priced in all of the bad news when Euro bottomed at $1.26, so now we are in an uptrend for a few more months as shorts cover. There is still a long way before Euros sentiment improves from ultra bearish levels.

  69. smartbullion

    Would someone be kind enough to post chart of the $VIX volatility index for the last 10 years? I only have the last 3 years worth of data available. Thanks…

  70. VG

    Why do i see a lot of posts with just “.”? are they deleted/moderated? or should i be a paid subscriber to view those comments?

    Thanks

  71. james r

    James

    You may want to cover your short Monday.

    The metals may surprise you.

    If this was 2006 you would have made the right call, but now it is 2012 the behavior of the market has since changed and you may just get crushed.

    Think about it.

    I was thinking the same line that silver would retrace back to 30 or so and complete the right inverse shoulder. But one can easily look that silver has formed a cup-and-handle and will explode higher.

    Anyway good luck.

    James

  72. Russell

    Gary,
    I know you’re not big on news driven price action, but clearly the tension in the Mid-East, with US Carriers in Gulf and Israel contemplating a strike on Iran, seems to be pushing up oil futures. I would think that since most oil is traded in US dollars, rising oil would push down the US dollar as this is inflation. Consequently, it may be the feared “Oil Crisis” due to threat of conflict that is the cause of the commodity bull run. If so, any reason for a resolution of the crisis may cause an abrupt end to the run. I guess I’m asking if you see oil as the primary driver here rather than the dollar itself.

  73. ILUVPMS

    Tiho,

    Great comments on the dollar. Im not sure why people are just paying attention to the index, instead of major currency pairs… Major currenciesy paired with the USD shows that its in a bearish position and about to go down… Other currencies not only have the fundamentals but technical indicators to go with them…

  74. Unknown

    I have never understood what the problem is with getting to the next page. Just scroll down to the bottom of the page and on the right side of the page where it says “newer/newest” you click on “newest” and it takes you the most recent page of posts. What is so difficult about this?

  75. Tiho

    Thanks ILUVPMS. Hopefully it helps someone out.

    Those looking at the Dollar Index have so far been outsmarted by the market weakness, despite technical indicators like 200 MA and “higher highs & lows” telling them that the Dollar is bullish… like I already stated global Dollar breadth does not confirm what the Dollar Index shows.

    The trade has been long PMs in late December and short Dollar in middle of January. All you had to do is enter and hold those two trades all this time. No overtrading, no counter-trend trading, no jumping around… just remain bearish on the Dollar and bullish on PMs this whole time.

    But for some reason, due to lack of board currency knowledge, so many traders have been outsmarted, flip flopping back and forth between long Dollar, long Gold, long Dollar, long Gold Miners, long Dollar again…

  76. Tiho

    To add away from the Dollar Index myth even further. We now have even more currencies breaking the 200 day MA against the US Dollar. The major global currencies that accomplished that feat this week include:

    – Russian Ruble
    – Norwegian Krone
    – Swedish Krona
    – Singapore Dollar
    – Thai Baht (flood disaster recovery)
    – Chilean Peso (great copper proxy)

    * Brazilian Real & Korean Won are great Chinese economic demand proxy. Both currencies should break Dollars 200 MA over coming sessions. Both are literally just sitting on it as of Friday.

    These types of developments imply longer term weakness for the Dollar. Sure, they will be oversold conditions, where the Dollar stages rallies, but these rallies will fizzle out as the trend still remains bearish.

  77. Steve

    I read a great book this weekend — One Way Pockets. It’s a short book wirtten about markets back in 1917. The writer did a study of brokerage accounts. He highlights how they all lost money eventhough they participated in a strong trending market (selling on real breakouts, buying at intermediate tops, etc.)

    It took me about an hour and a half to read and it was neat to see how the same market psychology has applied for a century. I would definitely recommend it.

    Steve in Winnipeg

  78. Gary

    Tiho,
    The reason I pay attention to the dollar index is because generally corrections in other assets happen in conjunction with a rally in the dollar index.

    The dollar will have the next opportunity for an intermediate rally sometime in the next couple of weeks.

    That would be the time that gold will move down into a B-wave decline and stocks should drop down into an intermediate degree correction and volatile consolidation period.

    I’m not trading currency pairs and I could care less what the dollar cross is between the Brazilian real or any other currency. The timing band for the dollar index bottom helps me to spot tops in other assets.

    That’s all I really care about. The performance of the model portfolio would suggest its a pretty good strategy.

  79. ILUVPMS

    Gary,

    You’re not making much sense… you need to look at currency pairs to get a better understanding of the dollar… The look at the dollar index if you wish… The dollar looks like its about to drop until end of march, then rally till june, form a nice right shoulder and continue downwards… Anyways, we all have our own ways of looking at things.. you’re still looking for a d wave bottom i guess and is probably getting whipsawed around… I’m holding long as I’ve stated and watching things unfold.

    cheers,

  80. Gary

    ILUV,
    Rather than try to guess what I’m doing maybe you should get a subscription.

    I trade in real time. When something doesn’t play out as I expect then I reverse course.

    The dollar had a chance to put in an intermediate cycle low two weeks ago but instead it has now confirmed another left translated daily cycle. That should drive everything higher for another 5-10 days.

    That gives us an A-wave top probably week after next in gold. Most likely that will also correspond with a stock market top.

    If however we were to see another daily cycle roll over then I would trade accordingly. The odds are against it as that would signal two stretched intermediate dollar cycles and that’s pretty rare.

    There is a reason why the SMT has such a high risk adjusted return. It’s because I don’t get married to any one idea.

    For the most part I trust my cycles and sentiment tools. But like any tool they will fail from time to time. When they do it’s my job to recognize that as quickly as possible and adapt.

    There is a reason why I’ve been warning people not to short the stock market. Even though the intermediate and daily cycles and sentiment have been calling for a top for weeks. There was always a good chance that the massive liquidity being injected by CB’s would short circuit my most dependable tools, which is exactly what happened.

    And even when the dollar moves into the timing band for the next cycle low I still will not sell short. I may take another trade in UUP but I’m not going to waste capital trying to short stocks. One is better off just moving to cash if they don’t feel comfortable with UUP.

    But again the timing band for that trade isn’t for another couple of weeks yet.

  81. ILUVPMS

    Gary are you kidding me? Pay for a subscription… Not to be rude but i wouldn’t trade based on your calls… How could anyone trade on your calls when you have been flip flopping considerably. Im not into that type of subscription service. You’ve made numerous bold calls, even published public letters that didn’t pan out. What makes anyone think that your next call will be accurate. Why bother “trading in real time” when the trend is upward imo.

    thanks but no thanks, I prefer to keep my hard earned dollars to myself than to pay for mere opinions. Your method of accessing the economies of scale for a mere 30 dollars can go to another

    Thanks

  82. Gary

    28.5% in 8 months during one of the toughest investing environments in years, with one of the lowest risk profiles in the business.

    If you can do better than that you let me know πŸ™‚

  83. ILUVPMS

    Gary,

    how do you know that you have the best investment profile. maybe you should check out scott silvas portfolio, from the late howard katz, which has been a buy and hold account, that doesn’t “just look at the last 8 months as you do for some unknown reason, and is currently at 400K dollars, 29 percent for the 12 month period… not sure why you use only the last 8 months…

    In anycase… yes, there are other risk adjusted model portfolios that do better than you.. get your head out of your ass if you think you’re the best portfolio in the world.. such arrogance.

  84. JEFFtheFLEA

    we started asking for a performance record. I would say the last 12 months would be 120%. I say 120% because my mom got in very late on the silver trade and got out early.
    Myself i screwed up doing my own thing =)

  85. Gary

    I never said the SMT delivered the highest return. I said on a risk adjusted basis it is probably the best in the world, and I’m confident it is.

    Anyone can take on a lot of leverage and do better than 28%. They can also wreck their account when they miss a couple of calls. And everyone misses from time to time. The best in the business rarely get it right more than 60-65% of the time.

    Buy and hold doesn’t even come close to the kind of risk adjusted returns of the SMT model portfolio.

    There are times when buy and hold is the correct strategy. We were mostly using that strategy in 2010 and early 2011. However when the dollar’s three year cycle bottomed in May and really started to rally in Sept. Buy and hold was no longer a viable strategy and those that stubbornly held to it have lost money.

    When the dollar rally started to accelerate that was the point one had to shorten trade durations.

    That’s exactly what I did. The ability to know when conditions have changed and adapt is the reason the SMT has performed as well as it has when the vast majority have struggled.

    Once conditions call for it then we will return to a buy and hold strategy, but we have to get through the upcoming B-wave first and the dollar needs to get on the downside of it’s three year cycle.

  86. Tiho

    As a matter of fact I would be willing to bet that on a risk adjusted basis there is none better in the world.

    Lol are you serious?

  87. DD_Ing

    I am with you Gary – believe me I have seen many an investor newsletters and paid many $$s over the years – this is hands down the best one out there, risk adjusted, and affordable cost. Others can waste their time doing their own due diligence but I have been down that road – it is long and expensive. Gary – I just hope you don’t plan on retiring anytime soon!!

  88. Gary

    Tiho,
    Absolutely serious. The model portfolio has done 28% in 8 months with almost 0 draw down. Any hedge fund manager in the world would kill for that kind of performance, especially in the environment we’ve been in.

    And on top of that we will never weather any large draw downs simply because our cycles tool signals when to step on the gas and when to apply the brakes. It also delivers accurate stops to tell us quickly when we are on the wrong side of a trade.

  89. Tiho

    The best in the business rarely get it right more than 60-65% of the time.

    Are serious again? Where do you get this assumptions from? Technical analysis books?

  90. Tiho

    We already covered the hedge fund part last time, but you still insist on comparing your performance to a fund manager. You are not managing a public fund nor do you have the pressure of managing one.

    It is a different ball game, where you almost always have the perssure to be fully invested and chase returns to better your competition. It’s comparing apples and oranges man, forget about it.

    Just for the sake of opening your eyes to some new possibilities, I’ve seen guys with my own eyes, get things right for years, hardly making a mistake or two at best, trading in real time as you say and making returns that make 28% look like a tip you leave to your broker. And I wouldn’t even think these boys are best in the business. Probably much better out there…

  91. ...at ease

    Gary,
    Waste of time and breath to convince those who troll around to pull down others to build themselves up.

    Just let them join and find out for themselves. I am in line with Jeff’s Mom and it was my first year trading with Gary’s service. My returns are higher following the aggressive moves.

  92. Tiho

    No one is pulling anyone down. No one is taking away from the ability of the author of tis blog to make returns for his subscribers.

    Gary just made some “bold” calls, which are way overstated in my opinion. That is all.

  93. Unknown

    Tiho-

    If bullshit was green, you’d be an 18 hole golf course.

    You have posted zero facts. How about putting some names and verifiable data to your propaganda.

  94. Gary

    BTW one can use a mechanical system such as the Bollinger band crash trade and win 90+% of the time but that doesn’t mean one has great, or even good risk adjusted returns. Heck when used on individual stocks the BB crash trade doesn’t even have a positive expectancy despite a 90%+ win rate.

    So to say that someone has a very accurate trading record and is therefore extremely successful isn’t true by any stretch of the imagination.

    One could win 95% of the time and still lose money.

  95. PST

    Tiho,
    I think that you missed the point of my post on Friday. I don’t disagree with you about the secular decline of the USD vs. most world currencies. In fact, in my comment, I stated as much by saying that it was occurring as an intentional policy choice as well as unintentionally as a function of our fiscal largess and persistent budget deficits. I also don’t disagree with you that the trade weighted dollar index is a more realistic indicator of overall USD strength vs. all world currencies than is the six currency dollar index.

    However, my point was that the strength of the dollar, from a US centric perspective, is best captured by the dollar index. Let’s not confuse what the dollar index is intended to measure, which is the value of the U.S. dollar relative to our most significant trading partners and not against all world currencies. The currencies within the dollar index still include 7 of our top 11 trade partners (several countries represented by the euro), 2 of our largest commodity providers (Canada and Sweden), and still account for nearly 70% of worldwide consumption. Many of our other large trading partners whose currencies are not in the index are either pegged to the dollar or to the Euro, so their inclusion in the index was previously not necessary. It is for these reasons, that the dollar index has historically been used as proxy for USD strength rather than measuring it against every other currency. It is also why the dollar index could enter a cyclical bull even as the dollar continues to depreciate against most world currencies. Unless trading currency pairs, then policy makers are less concerned about the weakness of the dollar compared to even an important commodity currency like the New Zealand dollar due to the small balance of trade that exists between the two countries.

    Now I know that your next point will be that most of the recent dollar strength as measured by the dollar index has come as a result of Euro weakness and I agree with you. However, you can’t completely discount the dollar’s relative stability against the GBP and SEK. In addition, the USD will appreciate against the CAD during a global economic slowdown like it did in 2008. So really the two currencies in the index that will continue to appreciate unimpeded against the dollar regardless of market conditions will be the JPY and likely the CHF, provided they chose not to maintain a peg to the Euro. Like the USD, both of these will also benefit from their safe haven status during a slowdown.

    Now obviously the dynamics in the global economy are changing with the emergence of China as a major purchaser of commodities as well as with the growth of other emerging economies. However, until they develop a middle class of consumers that is truly decoupled from the consumer economies of the US, Japan and Europe, then their abilities to run budget surpluses and therefore the strength of the currencies will be inextricably linked to the strength of their dominant regional trading partner.

  96. tom

    The story of 2012 will be PAGE-The Pan Asia Gold Exchange.Its set to open in June.Just be aware of this and it could have a big effect on TA-Cycles,ect that many use.PAGE is a game changer.Your Opinions??

  97. William Wallace

    My friends,

    As many of you know tomorrow I will be going for surgery on my leg, a complete restructuring of my amputation…due to the weakened state of my heart, if for some reason I dont make it through this time I want to thank you all for your well wishes and support, you all lift my heart up and give me strength. I am forever grateful to be here everyday with some of the most talented, generous, good hearted and great minded people I ever came across in my life. Know that if you dont hear from me again that I will be smiling down on you all from above, and will be pulling strings with the Big Man moving markets for you guys.

    Gary,

    Thank you for all you have taught me on cycles, and for being relentless on your mission. I thank you for all those on this blog (especially those who give nothing in return) for whom you are so generous with your time and patience. Stay humble my friend…oh yeah, and keep climbing until your buddies have to rig a pully system to assist :).

    Everyone, if im not around…keep an eye on the 200, 275, 300 dma’s for a B-wave bottom, start buying the 200 and if gold makes it back to the 300dma, load the boat, close your eyes, and hit the buy button, then shut off your computer for a week.
    B-waves typically retrace to the MA which the D-wave Bottomed, if not halted by the 200dma beforehand.

    02′ B-wave – Bottomed $1 short of the 200dma/on the lower bollinger band.

    03′ B-wave – Bottomed on the 200dma.

    04′ B-wave – Bottomed on the 300dma on a closing basis/on the lower bollinger band.

    05′ B-wave – Bottomed on the 300dma on a closing basis.

    06′ B-wave – Bottomed on the 275dma on a closing basis/just shy of the 300dma

    Goodnight my friends πŸ™‚

  98. Rob L

    WW,

    I wish you the best of luck, even though I know that we will be reading your posts in a week or so.

    P.S. I think gold will bottom on the 150SMA. πŸ™‚

  99. ...at ease

    WW,
    Talking with the big guy he says you will be back with us before the A wave tops. Prayers are with you and yours through surgery, recovery and your return to longer healthier and happier life ahead of you. God Bless.

  100. royboy1979

    W2,
    Best of luck tomorrow man! Been awhile since we’ve chatted in here but I have watched with great interest at all of your work on the blog. I look forward to your return soon man. My prayers are with you.

  101. ckpc

    WW,
    With so many friends here, holding you in our thoughts, I know you’ll come through with flying colors.
    Wishing you a full and speedy recovery. All the best, Braveheart.

  102. ALEX

    W W

    Re-Read my email from Saturday and stay strong, I did expect to hear from you in 2 weeks, but for some reason I think it’ll be this week ; ]

    Alex

  103. ALEX

    Here’s a new twist for everyone-

    Did you read W W’s post timestamp
    February 26, 2012 7:52 PM ?
    He mentioned B waves from EVERY YEAR 2002, ’03 , ’04, ’05, ’06 ..so we had D’Waves about every year, right?

    I was thinking today while reviewing many charts etc…we have NOT had an “OFFICIAL D-WAVE” since 2008, Just regular sell offs still within cycle timing…
    maybe THIS RECENT SELL OFF wasnt either?? And maybe in the Final Countdown to parabola…we never get an “Official D-Wave” again?

    http://www.screencast.com/t/x2EUEOnIZ

  104. sophia

    William,

    Bonne chance mon ami!
    Will think of you all day today and cross my fingers for you.
    But like Alex, I know that we will hear from you by the end of the week!
    Your statement about this blog and the people participating in it is So true! I am unfortunately part of the people who don’t add much to it because I can’t but would love to.
    Good luck and please don’t bother Bertha too much!

  105. ALEX

    AT EASE… I just couldnt help but notice…D-Wave every year to 2008 , then NONE of the ‘corrections’in the last 3 yrs qualified as one??

    The problem is , because we arent “SURE” , we have to assume this is an ” A-Wave’…

    BUT IF my No more D-Wave is true, then the correction in 2009-2010 ( see the purple cup / Handle) may repeat. We would get this while waiting for a B-Wave and could re-enter.

    Same chart, notice correction of 2009-2010 purple cup

    http://www.screencast.com/t/x2EUEOnIZ

    would look like this

    http://www.screencast.com/t/znsrSsuU

    Only time will tell, I guess.

    SOPHIA…you do add to the blog , you’re always positive .

  106. ...at ease

    Alex,
    That could explain why the D wave never went as low as expected by many. Makes sense as you say will have to wait and see. Thanks for sharing your insights and charts. πŸ™‚

  107. TZ(8155)

    I’m about to add to my gold futures position in this zone. I think we might not pullback much further. (Small stop of course. Not risking much)

  108. Matt Foley: Motivational Speaker

    Um. Nice try James. Here’s what you wrote-

    “James said…
    It’s over for silver bulls.I’m going long zsl at the open

    FEBRUARY 21, 2012 5:03 PM”

    ZSL was 10 that day. You now claim to to up. You are a fraud and need to stop posting.

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