Portfolio change

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405 thoughts on “Portfolio change

  1. YesLetsDiscuss

    Gary,

    I don’t post here much, but I have been your subscriber for years – longer than most people on the board.

    I have to say that ALEX has been posting his trades in near real time for a long time and has been scary good. There is no need for you to be so testy and cancel his subscription.

    You have to admit that several people have made much better calls in the past few months.

    Several people here use cycles to supplement their styles – not everyone trades exactly as the model portfolio.

    And a lot of those people are using what you have been teaching – the cycles methodology to arrive at different conclusions than you.

    This for instance – yesterday, gold had a swing low in the timing band. The last daily cycle was right translated. The most likely outcome here is there will be a second daily cycle and will exceed the previous highs.

    Your scenario may turn out to be right. But this is the most probable one using cycles theory.

    You may say we are in the D wave or B wave. But the fact is you’ve called a D wave and rescinded it at least 4 times since the silver collapse last year. Forget the dollar index for a moment as all currencies are being devalued and its a measure against them.

    You should encourage comments here, not discourage them.

  2. William Wallace

    at ease,

    I meant to say above yesterday’s close.

    “If gold moves above yesterday’s high I will most likely go long. Took off my short this morning, just waiting now.”

  3. William Wallace

    Miyagi,

    I do get excited here and there, but for some reason its only when im short πŸ™‚

    Definitely nothing exciting about being around nurses, they use me as a pin cushion!

  4. MrMiyagi

    You’re doing pretty good WW, I have zip emotions most times (99%) with money and the market.
    Huge contrast to when I started 10 years ago, sweating, heart beating all that jazz..

  5. EricH

    “Never said that. I said I would try another short term trade.”

    So you are doing a short term trade against your intermediate term projections? In the past, you have noted that you think it’s always best to simply ride the bigger picture instead of catching every little wiggle.

  6. sophia

    Got it WW!

    BTW, Miyagi-sensei, I should have listened to you this morning…you say ” careful not to sell too much today”…You have been calling the daily moves pretty right from your hotel room!

  7. MrMiyagi

    Thanks sophia,
    It’s a collective community here, everyone has good information.
    I can’t wait to be out of hotels and in a house, this is getting old…
    Anyone need a house-sitter in an expensive city?

  8. Gary

    Eric,
    The fact the the stock market didn’t break down like we were expecting was one of the determining factors of taking the trade today.

  9. EricH

    Fair enough.

    In last night’s report, you stated the following:

    “If that correction moves below the January 30 intraday low we will have a left translated and failed daily cycle in progress, which is what I have been anticipating.”

    If you expect the IT low to come in March, do you still anticipate it to be left translated?

  10. Gary

    Ver,
    This is what I sent out to the aggressive portfolio members first thing this morning.

    “The miners are right on the trend line this morning for anyone that wanted to take a shot at that trade.”

    I was only expecting a short term pop but it could turn into more if the stock market forces the dollar to break down.

  11. MrMiyagi

    Allright.. wife says get off the laptop, time to go look at houses.
    I think positive markets untill Tuesday seeing this Greek moneybleeding is on Monday but I’ll see later at the close.

  12. William Wallace

    Keep in mind, if Gold does have another DC higher we can see a test of the C-wave highs and the A-wave still be intact…which means we possibly still have a B-wave ahead of us.

  13. ver

    Unknown:

    I’ll push back on one part of your assessment. The last several trades of Gary’s trades have been anything but “buy and sit back with low risk”. Virtually every entry and exit into and out of GDX is highly sensitive to the timing of Gary’s real-time calls. Minutes and some times seconds make for a 1-3% difference.

    Now, Gary has done a good job of picking when to be in and out so there’s zero criticism about the quality of the trades and recommendations, but it’s totally false that you don’t have to be quick and attentive to make money alongside him in the “post C-wave” era.

  14. ver

    Good call Gary, you nailed it too then πŸ™‚ I don’t have any visibility into the aggressive portfolio. But you’re clearly building an excellent read on trading the HUI.

    By the way ,y comment to Alex wasn’t a backhanded insult to you, it was throwing some love Alex’s way since he’s one of the few others besides you who consistently sticks his neck out with turning point calls.

  15. Unknown

    ver-

    I wouldn’t touch GDX with a barge pole. Way more correlated with the stock market than with gold. I only own and trade gold bullion.

  16. ver

    Unknown:

    That’s a funny mental image πŸ™‚ Well I won’t disagree with you on that. Sticking to gold here as well for the foreseeable future, especially with the stock market pushing the upside the way it is. Never ends pretty.

  17. ALEX

    Thank you VER

    And there are some nice “T/A ” patterns shaping up that usually indicate ‘reversal’.

    Bullish engulfing off bottoms in SLW, AUY , FSM,GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, etc

    And UUP has a bearish engulfing .

    This is if they close at current prices or better. good volume buying too. ALSO some bull flags tight on wkly chart (SLW for ex:)

  18. Todd

    Nice calls Alex. I have not paid much attention to many of the comments here, but I will look forward to reading more about your thoughts from now on.

  19. david

    everyone no complaining! these little daily arguments aren’t going to mean anything when gold/silver doubles/tirples/quads up, and we’ve traded it all the way to the top. thanks gary, alex, ww, poly and anyone else who is a professional and shares their opinion to the non-pros. you guys are great and there are 1000s of people here who don’t say anything who really appreciate everything you guys do — especially gary!

  20. William Wallace

    In a previous post I detailed my levels for a gold DCL…

    First – 150dma
    Second – Fibonacci levels
    Third – 50dma
    Forth – 200dma

    I mentioned in that same post that the bottom would almost certainly be marked by a reversal off an MA and close at or above the prior supporting MA that was breached (the 20dma in this case).

    Barring something crazy today should mark the DCL.

  21. ver

    WW:

    Sorry to ask you this again but which close do you mean? Do you put a ton of weight in the precise closing price or treat it as a rough guide. The strength we’re seeing here makes it tempting to pre-empt the close.

  22. William Wallace

    If the SPX is sold off into this breakout of the July high, and drags gold down with it, or gold decides it needs to take out the 150dma, we keep an eye on those levels I mentioned below it.

  23. William Wallace

    See the 20dma was actually pretty tough support yesterday and last night, looking at a daily chart now seems as if gold just blew through it both up and down. This is what I was refering to when I was talking about certain MA’s looking ineffective at different times.

  24. GottaHaveIt

    Since Alex won’t toot his own horn I want to tell everyone that Alex told me and several other traders that we hang out with that today was likely to be a great buying opportunity for gold and miners BEFORE the market opened.

    Here’s a line from a message that Alex sent to us at 6:17 AM Pacific Time (9:17 ET) this morning (13 minutes before the market opened):

    “$1703 was my target for Gold, but the way Miners are lined up…I am thinking that we will see a buy on Miners today (Gap down open) and gold will turn up.”

    Based on that message from Alex, and watching the market action this morning, I bought NUGT at $20.75. Right now it’s at $22.95

    Thanks Alex!

    The other trader I follow is another long-time poster here on the SMT blog that many of you will recognize, he goes by the nickname “BobLovesHawaii”

    Bob has been KILLING it lately and he posts his trades on Twitter @BobLovesHawaii

    Meanwhile, I will continue to subscribe to Gary’s premium service because I like his cycles commentary and market insight.

    As I posted the other day you can never have too many good investing ideas.

    Gary is good, Alex is good, BobLovesHawaii is good … and they all have different trading styles.

    Now, as Rodney King once said, “Can’t we all just get along.”

  25. ver

    WW:

    Thanks. I’m seeing that GC made an intraday high of 1730.5, which is why I ask about if/how you honor where it closes today (vs. just the intraday price action alone). Obviously we have yet to push through *and* hold above the 10 DMA which may be why you are still in waiting and seeing mode.

    Agree the 20 DMA went from a rock to soup between yesterday and today. Why then set it as your stop level vs. a more firm MA like the 150? I know that’s a much looser stop but at the same time the sudden ineffectiveness of the 20 could result in a quick whipsaw.

  26. GottaHaveIt

    Whoops!

    I just went back to the previous post and saw that Alex posted the same message HERE this morning!

    So you all had the same info I did.

    Way to go Alex!

    For those of you who don’t know, Alex is a full-time professional stock trader (like Gary) so he is very generous to share his valuable insights here.

    Thanks again!

  27. Bill

    On the 60 min chart, GDX just filled the gap left on last Thurs the 9th.

    I’m not so sure GLD/GDX are going up here … I think WW’s right about 1730 gold, which is still holding.

  28. sophia

    Bill,

    I was thinking the same…Gold hasn’t moved since last week..It will very soon, most probably up but who knows…If the rally on the USD, we are still at the same price as last Friday

  29. sophia

    Nobody complimented me….I could start a paying website with my comment this morning

    Sophia said

    Riley,

    Thank you but it was William who gave me the guts to short on Monday….and since I saw the rally above 1740 after the fact, I was lucky enough to keep it….But we shall see how far it goes, it seems that everybody is ready to jump on bioard at 1680, so I am not sure we will even get to 1700!

    February 15, 2012 11:52 PM

  30. Bill

    Hi Sophia, yea it’s tricky.

    I’m now eyeing 170 GLD again. A close above that would definitely cause me to go long.

    UUP still looks like it’s going up to me. Yes today’s candle and volume look horrific, but so did Jan 4th, after which price went up. The daily MACD is definitely up on UUP.

    170 GLD is my line in the sand.

  31. Bill

    Sophia, you’re a GREAT trader! You shorted gold, and then went for a walk in the park with your kids. Now that takes major kahuna’s! You’d be a great air traffic controller.

  32. ILUVPMS

    Gary,

    “the stock market forcing the dollar to go down..” I always assumed that it was the dollar that drove the market and not vice versa..

    In anycase, just wanted to let you know that your thoughts on the dollar strengthening will probably not happen… Also, you need to see without bias my friend

  33. sophia

    Something smells fishy here…Monday is Bank Holiday in the US…How will people keep their long trades over a 3 days weekend? I will be ver surprised to see a strong rally into Friday…

  34. Bill

    Today’s high in the $SPX has neg div on the daily RSI, SStoch and CCI. And AAPL didn’t make a higher high, and also has neg div. It’s a top. The dollar will rise, gold fall, and Gary’s right. Me thinks.

  35. GottaHaveIt

    Gary,

    Since you have said the GDX trade is short-term, how long do you NOW expect it will be before the stock market rolls over?

    The market seems to want to keep grinding higher despite (or maybe because of) expectations of a big drop.

    Alex and others have speculated that the stock market could keep grinding higher for a couple months with just mild pullbacks, similar to what it did in 2010.

  36. slw_fiend

    No one called all this better than Doc, IMHO, and after all the s**t he took here, here’s what he had to say when someone on his site congratulated him for winning anohter burrito bet:

    “As I’ve said before, Gary is a smart guy, and I knew he would get on board at the moment of truth. He just pulled off a successful dollar trade and then bought GDX at very favorable prices, so I’m not so sure I won anything.’

    Very classy IMHO.

  37. Bill

    TheDoc is definitely classy.

    This market is tricky, that’s all there is to it.

    Top physicists from MIT and Oxford with IQ’s > 200 don’t agree on a lot of stuff, so I think it’s normal for smart folks to disagree sometimes.

    One thing they all agree on is, when the market starts to trend they all get on board. At least that’s how I see it.

  38. pimaCanyon

    slw_fiend,

    thanks for posting that. It’s a good reminder for those of us who stayed long PM’s during their move into their DCL, while Gary did the prudent thing and closed his PM positions and went long the dollar. Short term trade yes. But he made money on the UUP trade. AND he gets back into the PM trade at a better price. Hard to argue with that kind of success.

  39. Danno

    About 3 weeks ago Todd Harrison of Minnyanville said told Aaron Task at Yahoo that he expected the market to have a ‘gut check’ at 1360.

  40. Todd

    WW,
    I am showing spot gold with a 10dma at 1726.24 with the current price at 1728.56. Does that count or should I pay more attention to April futures?

  41. Bill

    Revision: I’ll go long GLD when spot $GOLD goes above 1739.20, yesterday’s high.

    I think WW said this yesterday, correct WW?

    Also, it still strikes me as major important that AAPL didn’t make a higher high today – AAPL is the market LEADER and MAKER. W/out leadership, this is all suspect. Just saying.

  42. William Wallace

    Sophia,

    10dma is at $1729.50 Gold futures.

    Todd,

    That should be fine, when an MA holds it holds. If gold is headed higher the 20dma should hold tight, as it was last night before gold finally breached it.

  43. sophia

    I know, I feel a bit dumb, but to be long now ahead of the long w/e feels for me like betting the bank. Flat will be better for me….

  44. William Wallace

    Bill,

    Thats correct, but that was before I seen gold drop to the 150dma and put in a strong reversal (although it was SPX driven), so I changed my entry today to a bit below that which was a breakout of yesterday’s close and a move above where the 10dma is today. Yesterday the 10dma was at $1732.60, today $1729.60. I also have a close stop at the 20dma, which if gold is to follow through off this reversal and 150dma bottom, it shouldn’t move back below the 20dma unless the SPX drills it below it.

  45. sophia

    SF,

    Indeed…and even if we don’t have a big gap down, the markets have rallied so much in the last 6 weeks that if people think that a positive outcome is reached it will rally 5-8% they are dreaming!
    Back in May 2010, when the ECB floaded the markets, the European markets were down 15% and rallied for 1/2 day by 10%…Now, we have rallied, so it really doesn’t make sense…

  46. GottaHaveIt

    Sophia,

    If we were close to a TOP in the metals/miners I would be nervous holding over a 3-day weekend, but most of us now assume that we are near a BOTTOM for miners and the PM’s so I will hold FULLY loaded over the long weekend.

    If you look at what happened last month after a 3-day holiday weekend, GLD gapped UP on Tuesday Jan 17.

    I’m just sayin’

  47. SF Giants Fan

    Sophia

    Plus there’s been spy SOS all week. It just feels like one big bull trap.
    Everyone on the blogs are bullish and you know what happens when everyone is thinking the same thing…

  48. sophia

    GHI,

    sure…I am pretty thick, so I will wait…I agree with you that miners are the way to go, but ultimately they will follow the S&P first, so close to a top of the broad market I am suspicious…
    But, of course,I am sure that if I don’t take the trade, it will be a mega winner, ah ah ah…LOL

  49. William Wallace

    Ver,

    Just following up on your earlier question about why the 20dma and not the 150dma for my stop…if I believe that today’s reversal will indeed see some follow through (depends on SPX follow through also), gold should hit resistance first at the $1725 handle, second the 20dma at $1722, and then the $1720 handle, my stop is below second and third resistance at $1719, so if my stop is hit I would think gold is going to breach the 150dma this time around and rather be out before then with a small loss. If I did happen to get whipsawed , gold is not going anywhere without me if it plans on blasting off afterwards.

  50. Bill

    WW, I’ve turned on all the SMA’s you noted, and I see what you’re saying. Very interesting. Up until now I’ve been using EMA’s as triggers; but I do also see now that SMA’s act as support/resistance.

    At the moment, GDX, SLV and SIL are all below the 10d SMA, and GLD is only 0.10 above it, so to me a breakout is not confirmed yet, despite the candles.

  51. William Wallace

    Bill,

    Thats why I said earlier “gold still hasn’t even closed above the 10dma, make sure stops are in place”. The SPX rolls over deep and gold will almost certainly take out the 150dma.

  52. William Wallace

    Bill,

    Gold futures may still close below the 10dma today, but it really all boils down to what the SPX does from here, unless there is a complete decoupling as we seen on Feb 3rd.

  53. funmike

    WW, I’ve been following your posts for awhile without comment and want you to know that I appreciate your input. I have a question though, How are you deciding what sma’s to use?

  54. TenYear

    Getting pretty stretched up here. Should be interesting to see how equities pan out next few months. I still think PMs will pull back further…but its just too tricky to initiate anything at this point.

  55. William Wallace

    Mike,

    I use SMA’s that have proven to be historically effective (in realtime also), ie. the 150dma was extremely effective in halting basically every intermediate cycle decline throughout the last C-wave, but was pretty much meaningless in halting IC declines prior. Several MA’s are effective at different points in history, within cycles, and on shorter time frames also. Many of the pivots you see on a chart, whether it be a monthly, weekly, daily, hourly, 5 minute…are created by MA’s.

  56. YesLetsDiscuss

    WW,

    As its 10dma is declining Gold is likely to open above it by default in the new session. No need to pierce through it.

    By the same token, silver may open below its rising 20dma (presently above it).

    Interesting to see how they play out overnight.

  57. William Wallace

    Yup that is exactly what is going to happen, gold futures closed above the 10dma though. In the past I pointed that out to Miyagi, gold closed above the 10dma, opened below it and it acted as resistance. But thats not to say it will have any effect other than short term.

  58. YesLetsDiscuss

    Looks like the 10dma for Gold has now reversed and it went higher, albeit negligibly. GC closed and opened just high enough that it stayed above the 10dma.

    Silver on the other hand did what was predicted and opened below now below the rising 20dma.

  59. ver

    WW:

    Thanks, makes sense. Though the 20 DMA is trending up and is at 1726 now, so if it is supposed to show strong support then just under 1726 makes for quite a nice tight stop.

  60. don

    GottaHaveIt
    “Alex is a full-time professional stock trader”

    What do you mean by professional? Someone who trade for institution?

  61. GottaHaveIt

    Don,

    Re: Alex

    I meant that Alex trades stocks full-time for his living. He does not have a regular “job” he lives off his stock trading investment returns. He does not manage money for anybody else.

    Same goes for BobLovesHawaii.

    They both make their living trading stocks … so they HAVE to be good, otherwise they don’t eat and can’t pay their mortgage!

  62. William Wallace

    Ver,

    Yup at 1726 at the open now, it’s above 1725 support now, today it was below it, so if it acts as strong support now as it did last night gold should hold above 1725. Although gold may penetrate the 20dma it will look to close above the 20 as it supports the move higher.

  63. ver

    Yeah GC is basically milling around while the 10 SMA on the hourly chart “catches up”. Actually, looks like a bear flag waiting for a match to be lit under it.

  64. Elaine

    Here’s what I have learned over the past 24 months since finding this blog. 2010 was awesome and I made a bunch of money following Gary. Since the silver crash, I have been killed an given most of it back because I can’t sit in front of the computer and trade all day long. I have basically given up and will probably just sit in cash until it seems like all this sideways stuff is done, but by then, I’ll most likely have missed a big part of the move up.

    Oh, well.

  65. David

    Elaine,

    It would be better to hold a core “Old Turkey” style, then turn off your computer and walk away.

    Figure out what percentage of your assets you’re willing to hold for the duration, be it 50% or whatever.

    If you go entirely to cash, you will panic-buy back in at the top of whatever wave we have next, then panic out again on a big decline.

    Owning 0% is as radical as owning 100%, IMO.

  66. Tiho

    I was only expecting a short term pop but it could turn into more if the stock market forces the dollar to break down.

    Stock market doesn’t force the Dollar to do anything. Dollar doesn’t trade against the stock market. The Dollar trades against other currencies and they force the Dollar to move up or down.

    I’ve written many posts here why the Dollar has already topped and that any greenback rally will just fizzle out, creating another great shorting opportunity.

    I’m not sure what the portfolio change is, but I take it you are now out of the Dollar again just to an outside day candle last night in US (I live in Asia)?

  67. ...at ease

    Elaine, I feel for you, it’ hard when you think it all turns against you. We have a big yearly correction coming up end of March/April/May time frame. Gary will know when that time comes. At that time take a big position in TGLDX and just let it ride up, You will be riding the bull and making dividends on those funds. TGLDX pays great dividends. Two others recommended to me were GGN and MCP. You know it will go down when we do go down, however you will be continually going up and also making dividends. So you will do fine doing that if you can’t trade constantly.

  68. Gary

    Elaine,
    If you can’t be available for short term trades then just take a position and leave it. The bull is going much much higher before this is over.

    As long as you can weather drawdowns you will come out just fine. Actually you will probably come out rich.

  69. David

    …at ease,

    TGLDX is a great fund, and it’s great advice to Elaine to invest in it, but if I’m not mistaken, what you’re calling dividends are really just distributions — the fund is distributing taxable capital gains. The fund also carries an expense ratio.

    Again, it’s a great way to go, but you could just as easily buy GDX or GDXJ or both. The important thing is just to be invested and ride the bull.

  70. mikezza

    gary
    out of the last few intermediate bottoms the dollar has either retested or crawled along the 20 day ma before taking off. is that what you think we are seeing here

  71. Gary

    mike,
    This one has me stumped. On the weekly chart it looks like the dollar has put in an intermediate bottom, but if the stock market continues to rally then we could see another cycle down. I expect it would be a little short since the last one was long.

  72. Piazzi

    S&P made a yearly cycle low in October

    That takes precedence over mid-term and daily cycles

    1260-1280 is first area of real support, 1250 after that and I bet a sandwich and a soft drink that next intermediate low will be a higher low

    We have had a yearly cycle late 2011 and it is just forcing the technicals from a larger frame of action

  73. Gary

    Yes the intermediate cycle is extremely right translated. The odds are very high the next correction will hold above the Oct. low.

  74. Piazzi

    But that does not mean that one should sit in an take the punishment of an IC correction πŸ™‚

    One either sells/reduces into strength and set the remainder on trailing stops — 1330-1340 is lowers I would set for stop at this point

  75. Gary

    There will certainly be another intermediate degree correction. I’m assuming the current trade will be another short-term affair unless the dollar cycle fails. If that happens in our trade will probably be 3 to 4 weeks long.

  76. mikezza

    i think everyone was surprised by the strength of todays rebound. the 11:30 selloff in the dollar seemed to coincide with the announcement that the ECB would do a bond swap on their greek debt holdings

  77. Frank

    Elaine’s problem is related to what I mentioned yesterday to TZ.

    Early Feb 2010 was a good entry point and I added to positions at that time.

    GDX is up only 22% since then, GDXJ a horrible 12% (but has had large distributions). GLD is up 53%.

    Then take a look at the likes of NGD, AG, and SLW. That stresses the importance of picking the right miners. Otherwise it’s better to stick to GLD than miner indexes over the long term. Short to medium term I hope miners do better across the board.

    And there is a reason that GDXJ is only up 12%….. there are many juniors that are in the red over that period. I own some of those but they are small speculative positions purchased after they plunged. Overall, dabbling in this category has not been too fruitful yet. Except SBB.TO but that miner is a “winner” long term with a large pull back. JAG is doing well too because of speculation about a buyer.

  78. Piazzi

    I think the trading cycle happened on Dec 30, I have heard Tim Wood thinks it was on Dec 13, but that just does not fit momentum and breadth profile

    If I am right, Early March may have the trading cycle and the intermediate cycle aligned for a low

    I am hoping index can drive higher to drag as many as possible and squeeze the shorts clean. That can usually get some fireworks when everybody’s in

  79. Piazzi

    Gary,

    as for miners, I am absolutely with you, it is a mine field and one has to know so much about mine location and ore body density and stuff like that, it makes my brain fry in its own fat — so the ETF is my choice

    but, royalty players have been my faves for individual stocks

  80. Frank

    Speaking of currencies, I was reading a consensus survey on Forex that a friend at a bank forwarded. It’s mostly not interesting but every currency had a PPP chart.

    We all know that PPP will show the dollar to be undervalued against most currencies but this one had long term charts and you can clearly see that JPY move like they should on average over time with great divergences. And it depends on the inputs for PPP and of course this is manipulated data. This one used PPI (producer price index) without explaining the motivation.

    Actually, JPY has been in pretty close synch to PPP since the financial crisis in 2008 where its under-valuation disappeared because the carry trade disappeared. It then moved to slight over-valuation.

    I note that PPP for JPY is 85 so it’s not that overvalued and it’s a 45 degree angle line going from left to right at 140 in 1992. EUR is actually at 1.25. It was fair value at 1.18 when it started in 1999. Also EUR/CHF is very close to PPP at this time at its rigged level with slight CHF over-valuation. Not that you would think so if you use the Big Mac PPP index!

    Oh, it also shows that the Renminbi is fair value based on PPI PPP. Not something Chuck Schumer would like to hear. Japan imports more from China as % of GDP than the US and they don’t whine about currency manipulation. Also, Japan’s trade with China is roughly in balance.

    I would like to see someone do PPP analysis using TMS money supply instead….

    If you wonder where the USD can appreciate I only see the EUR but once it’s below 1.25 we see PPP over-valuation. I don’t think the yen is going higher. And AUD, NZD and CAD are very over-valued, especially the first two. Also the BRL.

    But, I have also preached in the past that the USD index is not a driver of anything else. That’s why I think Gary and others get far too caught up in dollar analysis. It’s a yardstick of market conditions, but it’s like saying that it’s due to the thermometer that it’s cold outside.

  81. Frank

    Well, it requires a combination of skill and luck to pick the right miners. I have been successful in doing so. My three big buys in Oct/Nov 2008 were NGD, NXG and SLW. NXG was a laggard but patience worked well due to an acquisition last fall. I still have some (as AUQ) in my IRA, which I happened to purchase in Feb 2010 and it is up a modest 30% still outperforming any miner index.

    I mean, if you were investing in tech stocks in recent years then you would not have to be clever to focus on Apple rather than QQQ.

    p.s. RGLD is +63% vs. +53% over 2 years.

  82. Jayhawk

    Finding the perfect miners is darn near impossible, but I keep on trying! Something always seems to come up–this one buys this junior and the market thinks they overpaid (EGO, AUQ, PAAS, etc), this one has it’s mine shut down and the stock gets crushed (HL, AEM), this one is subject to rumors of nationalization (PAAS, AUY, NG), this one has false rumors spread around about it (SVM).

    PS…AGQ outpeformed just about all the red hot miners out of the Dec low. I go with NUGT & AGQ mostly, but hand pick a few too.

  83. Frank

    Jayhawk, I don’t and haven’t owned anything you mention except AUY. I only have a small position left because I sold in 2010 due to under performance. It’s a good company.

    Also some AUQ because of the acquisition but that benefited me. I think AUQ could be a buy for the future based on the NXG acquisition and its undervaluation.

    But AUY was probably the best big cap miner in 2011. It’s up 35% over one year while GDX is -5%.

  84. ...at ease

    WW,
    I am going to take your advice and at the next top, sell off some TGLDX and buy some RGLD or use the profits to buy RGLD.

    Elaine… you see this one…RGLD per WW.

  85. MarkMarin

    A couple of other miner royalty companies to consider buying and forgetting, other than RGLD and SLW, are Franco-Nevada (FNV.TO) and Sandstorm (SSL.V). Sandstorm closed at new, all-time highs today, run by ex-SLW management.

  86. Jayhawk

    The year before AUY didn’t do much and I kept buying it and watching it do nothing (2010) only to see it finally break out with out me.

  87. tom

    Want a miner??Look to Nevada and Rye Patch Gold.RPM.V-Do some DD on them and you will find top notch management that’s finding Gold and last fall they claimed a bunch of claims that CDE forgot to pay fee’s on.Good Luck

  88. TommyD

    Bob Loves Hawaii,
    Coal is back to the bottom and is sooo unloved.
    It may make sense to have a speculative position?

    Thank you for sharing this.

  89. Harry

    I have to say I’m still wary of gold at this point. I expected a stronger bounce out of a DCL with the dollar dropping nearly a full point.

  90. Danno

    The ‘flag’ in gold some have mentioned is not a flag. It’s a nothing. You can’t call it a flag until price closes above the upper trendline. Just FYI.

  91. William Wallace

    Harry,

    I hear you, take a look at a daily with the 10dma and 20dma applied, we want to see the 10dma stay above the 20dma, if it crosses below it, not good at this point.

  92. YesLetsDiscuss

    WW,

    I think we will have a day or two of 10 below 20 just by their rates of change. This will happen either Tuesday or Wednesday. (Monday, the market is closed).

    Note that they are both rising now, so its not like the 10 is going below the 20, but rather the 20 is going above the 10. That is the effect of 20 rising much more rapidly at the moment.

    But obviously, that is the effect of the past 2/4 weeks. Yesterday’s suspected turnaround has little influence at the moment.

    The 10 turned around just today – a few days of gains will increase its rate of ascent.

  93. Neo

    WW,

    You´re truly amazing!!!

    “Listening” to your comments on markets moves is like watching a soccer game!!!! lol. Emotion and action every minute.

    Keep your fantastic work, giving us more and more lessons about trading.

    Thks for your kind.

  94. TZ(8155)

    We never dropped (so far) to my prefered entry below 1700 and I haven’t added anything else like GDX.

    I’m just watching with some uncertainty as to what is going on.

    Gold is still in a 3-4 week congestion here and I think it could go either way although, like most everyone else, I BELIEVE it’s going higher and I feel like I should up my core holdings or go 1x. (But when I do that without a good entry or stop any declines tend to unsettle me so historically I know I’m not as suited to that and tend to avoid).

  95. TZ(8155)

    Equity options expiring today are going to jerk things around so I’m not sure much of the action can be trusted today anyway-up or down.

    The ‘big move soon’ I was mentioning will probably happen after today’s close and the options are gone.

  96. Frank

    Re: RGLD. I looked at the company a number of years ago and did not like what I saw. Can’t remember any details. Its performance is marginally better than GLD over 2 years. Over longer term it has underperformed GLD. So why take the risk? There is risk even with royalty companies. The 5 year chart is +157% for GLD and +121% for RGLD.

    Re: PCX. I purchased it right after it listed in Jan 2008. I sold one third when it hit $100 (more than 3X) by early summer a few months later, sold another third around the peak at $150 a week or so later, and the rest at break even a couple of months later. Its chart rivals the likes of PCLN during and post the dotcom era. I wouldn’t touch it with a 10 foot pole unless they can sort out their business. I remember that balding gypsy on CNBC was screaming about it back in 2008. It was the #1 mo-mo coal stock.

  97. Rob L

    TZ(8155),

    We have a swing low in gold occurring deep in its timing band for a DCL, and now a swing high in the dollar (if yesterday’s high holds). If gold breaks below $1700 we have a failed DCL and an intermediate cycle will be in play and we should all sell our positions anyway and anticipate a large move lower – perhaps well below $1700.

    I know you have a unique trading strategy, but if we one follows cycle analysis we now have a relatively low risk entry point with huge upside.

  98. SF Giants Fan

    Markets top on good news and bottom on bad.
    My 2 cents is Greece gets their buckets of money over the long weekend, world markets rally on Monday & Tuesday while big money dumps to dumb money.

    As for gold, Gary’s the man…

  99. TZ(8155)

    ROB,

    Cycle rules of ‘this and that means this if we break that low’ or whatever are just made up guidelines.

    The market can move however it wants in any direction at any time and reverse however it feels like it.

    The rules help and all, but rules are made to be broken ESPECIALLY by financial markets.

  100. TZ(8155)

    >If your comparing metal with miners, why take the risk with miners at all then.

    That has been my point all along, UNTIL the produce results that warrant that higher risk. (Individual stocks outperforming doesn’t count cause you need to hold at least 3-5 to be safe and then you have created your own index which will likely perform close to GDX)

  101. Frank

    A few miners have out-performed gold by a large margin, especially since end-2008, which is my reference frame. That’s when I changed my investment theme from shorting the financial sector to investing in PMs mostly miners.

    I probably should have converted some of my miner profits into gold last year, but that’s to say with hindsight.

    I also dabble in some turnaround stories in miners, but that’s quite risky and don’t really recommend it. Only small positions. GSS, JAG, KGN and SBB.TO. Well, the latter does not produce anything yet, but was badly beaten up after the September swoon.

  102. sophia

    Hi everybody!

    Was travelling fthe whole day…now in the French Alps! Gorgeous! Gary, when are coming to climb the Mont Blanc?
    I will bake you my famous chocolate cake, very little flour!

  103. Gary

    Sophia,
    Until I get my bad knee replaced I probably won’t be climbing any big mountains for a while. I’m trying to keep it going for another year or so. I figure I need at least a year to have a shot at world records.

    Training for nationals has just been one injury after another. It’s getting really frustrating.

  104. SF Giants Fan

    mikezza said…
    Out of the last few intermediate bottoms the dollar has either retested or crawled along the 20 day ma before taking off. is that what you think we are seeing here
    February 16, 2012 6:47 PM

    The dollar bounced off the 20 sma again today.

    Hmmmm

  105. Feel

    I’m posting to see if this shows up or if I need to post a ” . ” to make posts appear.

    Also, been catching up on the comments over the last few weeks and am now curious about the whereabouts of the Alex clubhouse where all the home run hitting occurs.

  106. William Wallace

    SF,

    “mikezza said…
    Out of the last few intermediate bottoms the dollar has either retested or crawled along the 20 day ma before taking off. is that what you think we are seeing here
    February 16, 2012 6:47 PM

    The dollar bounced off the 20 sma again today.

    Hmmmm”

    Yup, were seeing the exact opposite with gold, we got a 10dma swoop in effect on the dollar which if the trend is turning back up out of an IC bottom, will cross above the 20dma and support the move higher. Its like a cradle effect.

  107. William Wallace

    If one were expecting a trend change here in the $, either because of a recognizable bottom or cycle low, entry would be on the 20dma, This is the 10sma swoop I use on 5 minute gold for scalps.

  108. SF Giants Fan

    Intell2000

    It’s the Miner bullish% over the $HUI. Both tend to move in the same direction just the bullish% lags. It’s going lower today because the $HUI is dropping. We are in no mans land. Could go either way but the direction today it somewhat telling. Usually doesn’t turn up after it starts to roll over. If it does turn up it’s short lived.

  109. intelliblue2000

    SF Giant,

    Thanks for your response. I really don’t understand how to interpret that miners bullish index. A few times miners look bearish but it keeps going lower (the GDX and the HUI index).

    But then, I really am not good at reading charts regardless.

  110. 86d4life

    You guys remember last what? Sept, Oct, Gary had in one of the reports about the large numbers on SOS. Not necassarily huge numbers but a lot of big numbers adding up to a big pile of change. The thought being that the Boyz were packing up their toys and getting ready to leave the party. I`d say their changing oil and checking tires now. The one I really notice is the ratio on the block trades. A very lopsided affair.

  111. sophia

    It is finny the way Gold and Silver are behaving…
    When I left London this morning, Gold June was trading 1738, and S&P 1355.
    While I was travelling, I received a twit from Gann360 mentionning that S&P was touching 1363…imagine my surpirse when I finally reach my PC to realise that Gold was at 1722! very weird action today

  112. 86d4life

    Todd,
    Negative on that. I say bearish. The block traders are taking money off the table and putting almost none on. Letting Joe 6 Pack put it on, they take it off.

  113. 86d4life

    And of course there has to be something cotradictory to that. Look at the whoppers on BOW. I think this is why the saying, `Hell is the impossibility of reason`.

  114. Gary

    If I had to guess I would say the market makes a marginal new high to draw in the last buyers and then rolls over into an ICL.

  115. Gary

    Sophia,
    So far the market is doing what I think it needs to do. It’s holding above the consolidation zone. Miners are a little weaker than I would have liked but the weekly chart looks constructive. Our stop is close so I’m going to let the trade work and see what happens.

  116. Bill

    Gary, sorry to hear about your knee.

    I had part of my right knee’s meniscus removed, so switched from climbing to cycling 15 yrs back. Cycling and swimming are the only 2 exercises that are easy on the knees (I’m afraid), according to Dr Mirkin, who is Lance’s sports doctor. And there’s no fixing it, as cartilage doesn’t grow back. Squats don’t hurt my knee for some reason. But the way you Olympic weightlifters throw weights around, I’m not surprised that the knee is super stressed.

  117. Neo

    Sophia, je penses que vous devrez sérieusement pensear a ouvrir une patisserie uniquement pour vendre vos gateaux au chocolat πŸ™‚

    Moi même, j´ai envie de les gouter lol.

    Bon week-end.

  118. Bill

    Thanks Curtains.

    I’ve seen that site before and heard that it’s not as accurate as another site, which requires a subscription.

    So if none of these max pain numbers were hit, why does ANYONE on this blog care about options expiration? Isn’t it just another day in the park? It seems a totally non-event to me. Please someone educate me otherwise. Thanks.

  119. Neo

    Sophia´s Chocolate Cake has became the new bull interest of the century πŸ™‚

    More and more person are looking for a slice πŸ™‚

  120. Todd

    WW,
    It appears that gold, silver, and SLW are all going to close within 1% four weeks in a row.
    Also, todays sell off was the weakest volume sell off in the last 3 weeks. We are going sideways and the volume is drying up.
    Why do you think we get such a big sell off?

  121. Curtains

    Bill – good point. I think the theory doesn’t work as well when the market is on fire, but that’s just me. Of course if it was that easy everybody would be doing it, too. If you have Thinkorswim you can look at the actual open interest numbers which might be more telling. I checked AAPL yesterday and it looked like 480-490 might be a good target (just from eyeballing it).
    I’m inclined to follow WW and add one more 1650 or 1675 put option. I have played that game in the past, buying put options a week before opex (futures options expire next week) and done really well. The 1675 is currently $120/160. That would pay off huge in a nice spike down. I already have some in anticipation of selloffs that haven’t materialized, so maybe this time it will work.

  122. Neo

    WW,

    Since you expect more downside on Gold, assuming that equities start to fall to their ICL soon, can we still have a continuous D Wave ? Or this option is out of the question, by your experience ?

    Thks

  123. Bill

    You know, standing back on a 5 yr daily log chart of $GOLD, given how much gold ran up last year, this correction is pretty small so far. Also the lower highs and lower lows is very prominent. We are definitely still correcting.

  124. Todd

    ok WW,
    Thanks, I exited out of 90% and will rebuy if we break above 1738 next week. Nice call on your exit earlier, I wish I had responded sooner.

  125. Bill

    I’m comparing the correction now w/2008, which was much larger %-wise, and had 1 more huge down. Maybe WW is sniffing that out.

  126. William Wallace

    Neo,

    Way too early to talk about the D-wave still being in effect. Im not expecting gold to drop hard unless the stock market does, but im prepared for it because of what im seeing. When I recognize my falling fruit pattern it almost always plays out as I expect. If you recall, a couple days ago I mentioned that I was expecting one more day for the branch to form completely before the fruit dropped, we seen it happen. A rallying stock market and the 150dma acted as a floor and gold bounced out of that fall. This pattern is still in effect with today’s down day.

  127. William Wallace

    Todd,

    The markets aren’t going anywhere, its better to be safe than sorry. I didn’t like what I was seeing this morning so I got out quick, if I had more time to recognize it I would have posted earlier, I posted as quick as possible.

  128. William Wallace

    Right now, especially with this weekend in front of us, gold could go either way hard. I would rather miss some upside than be caught hard to the downside and possibly stuck down there, if a B-wave the draw down is not something im about to hold through with futures.

  129. Todd

    WW, You alerted me with pleny of time. I have no problems with when you posted. I got up late thinking I did not need to worry about my position. Of course, I was quite wrong.
    Thanks for your help this week.

  130. William Wallace

    Would just like to mention a pattern im looking at on a daily for the bullish case here in gold…

    The D-wave has formed a slanted “W” pattern, the break out of the D-wave upper trendline on 1/25 was a technical move resulting in high volume (typical of this pattern’s break of the trendline). We are now in the consolidation stage of the break above the trendline, if one measures from the “W” low (Dec low) extended up to the trendline (neck line), taking that measurement and placing it on top of today we get a target of pretty much a test of the all time highs. A move to the upside from here would then form an inverted H&S pattern.

    Danno,

    I’ll let you chart it out for us
    I like your charts, they’re pretty πŸ™‚

  131. Bill

    On the 5 yr weekly chart of $SILVER, comparing the current correction w/that in 2008, as I did for $GOLD earlier, it looks likee there’s one more big down to go.

    I’m starting to think again that the scenario that Gary spelled out, that of the $SPX taking $GOLD down, will in fact happen. Next.

  132. TZ(8155)

    snalaska[PUT.DOT.HERE.TO.FIX]net/cot/current/charts/SI.png

    WOW!. some sort of huge game of chicken or something is going on with the commercial shorts vs spec longs on silver.

    this is pretty weird.

  133. TZ(8155)

    The open interest (green line) is NOT increasing, but the two sides are becomming progressively more opposed. Not sure I’ve ever seen that before.

  134. TZ(8155)

    EVERYBODY,

    You do not have to keep posting “.” comments to get to page 2 of this blog.

    From the main SMT page, click the TITLE of the articles to read them (on a BLUE background).

    Do NOT read the article from the main page and then click the “xxx comments” link on the bottom to get to them. This is a MISTAKE and you will then have a BEIGE background and you won’t be able to move from page to page.

    Only post comments using pages with BEIGE backgrounds (by clicking “Post a comment” on a blue page.)

    READ the blog using pages with BLUE backgrounds by clicking the article TITLE.

  135. TZ(8155)

    It helps to keep TWO tabs open in your browser: one being the blue background page you READ from. The other being the beige ‘post a comment’ page only for posting.

    If you don’t listen to me you will keep having this problem.
    AND everytime you want to read new comments on the beige page (like most of you are doing) you have to hit refesh and then scroll to the bottom. You don’t have to do that on the blue pages.

  136. Armo

    Sophia

    Sounds fantastic, you’ve got me wishing I was back. – it was very cold when I was there – minus 30 one day! But the alpine cheese, Ham and wine helped take the edge off

  137. Supermalc

    WW,

    Catching up on the board here in London, and wishing my mentors in the States (and elsewhere) a happy holiday. Good luck with your surgery, you are remembered in my prayers.

  138. Gary

    And you know gold is supposed to drop to $1640 why?

    A normal DCL should have moved consistently down by now and should be generating fear. This one has been consolidating instead. Friday would’ve been the 34th day of the daily cycle.

    Seems kind of late to all of a sudden drop 100 points, especially with the market showing no signs of topping, especially after completely ignoring the break in Apple.

  139. William Wallace

    Eamonn,

    “Greyerz – Gold to Begin a Major Advance Starting Next Week”

    If the slanted “W” pattern that I spotted continues to play out gold will certainly start a major advance to test the highs. This type of pattern does break down though at times, and when it does it usually breaks hard, falling fruit.

  140. MrSu

    SFG,
    The chart is not mine. It was linked from the jsmineset website.
    Maybe, the pattern will play out for this D-wave. Who knows?

  141. MikeS

    D-wave was done end of Dec….won’t be seeing those $$$ again

    But I guess as the saying goes….We shall see, said the blind men πŸ™‚

  142. Veronica

    Gary, DOC, and my system all seem to point to strength ahead for gold. I’m waiting final confirmation for my system to go to a buy, and will post updated #’s once gold opens on Comex tonight.

  143. Gary

    In the weekend report I said I think gold will likely break higher also. It’s had every chance to break down and it just hasn’t done it. Now it’s getting too late in the daily cycle to expect another hard move down.

  144. Veronica

    Keep in mind that we have futures options expiring next week and need to be ready for shenanigans while keeping our heads straight.Some new studies I’m undertaking are also pointing to strength dead ahead.

  145. Veronica

    Also, the gold bug community I’ve followed for a decade seems to be extremely fearful of continued downside action, and they are usually dead wrong.

  146. Bob loves Hawaii

    FYI, for all who are interersted; SLV, SLW, and GLD are all showing consolidation per my trade signals. I am and have been long all three. The miners are starting to break out here and there.

    I still am placing trades and am biased towards volatility turning up.

    Gary switched TVIX, thanks.

  147. TZ(8155)

    Went long about 4x gold futures with a small stop.

    I think we have a 2-3 week triangle here and it is now breaking out and up at this point.

    Seems like a reasonable bet and i’m risking less than 2% net worth on the trade.

  148. TZ(8155)

    My preferred method of buying is pullbacks, but we never got one after the ‘recognition move’ on the 25th and I agree with gary (and others) that we’ve had time to drop and don’t seem able to.

  149. TZ(8155)

    VERONICA,

    >Keep in mind that we have futures options expiring next week…

    Options expire each month, true. But only SOME months are large ‘delivery’ months (although someone can take delivery in any month).

    There are only some months with large volume and hence large options open interest too. (It is based on the specifications of the contract and when each month is ‘opened’ for trading).

    http://www.cmegroup[PUT.DOT.HERE.TO.FIX]com/trading/metals/precious/gold_quotes_settlements_futures.html

    Mar coming up is NOT one of those months. So anticipated games from options should be low or non existent.

  150. TZ(8155)

    Higher high now on gold (the drop on fri is looking like a options manipulation) and we are also now above the downtrend ‘cycle’ line of gary/doc.

    So far so good.

  151. TZ(8155)

    Although i would never use a system without a stop.

    No reason to.
    No reason to take that risk no matter how good you think what you have is.

    A stop at friday’s lows minimally. Never leave a position open.

  152. TZ(8155)

    Just say “at what point is this trade not doing what it is supposed to do?” “At what point do I don’t want to be long?”

    If we went below 1706 I would say that is a pretty good indication something is wrong. Why risk more than that?

  153. TZ(8155)

    >TZ, I’ve been at this game long enough to always have some sort of stop independent of my system.

    But you are telling other people here (who follow you) that you are long without a stop.

    I’m aware you know what you are doing.

  154. TZ(8155)

    Not at all. Don’t stop posting the entries. Sorry to make it a big deal.

    People seem to follow you and you specifically mentioned you system went long with no stop.

    I just thought that was dangerous and was trying to caution that people should have a stop always.

  155. Matt

    TZ,

    Anyone who trades futures realizes a stop is absolutely necessary. Veronica is merely indicating the results of this system. If anyone trading futures does not know that, they deserve what they get. No need to be so critical. Good call on the 4x trade, I believe this will be above 1740 before we wake up.

  156. riley

    I went long at the open but I don’t like it, will add above 1741, and like even less. Must mean a turn upwards cause my gut is always wrong. Have to be emotionless for this. I have stops.

    Started clicking on the post text TZ so not have to post .

  157. KHC

    I love to see Veronica’s trading signal on Futures. Stops should be the most basic risk management skill in everyone’s investment strategy.

    If someone trades without his/her own stops by playing Futures, then it’s already a miracle that he/she still exists in the investment world without blowing up his/her account.

  158. SF Giants Fan

    Each year the US breaches its debt ceiling at a record pace. Debt is rising faster relative to the growth of gross domestic product (GDP). In the last four years alone, national debt has risen by $6.1 trillion and has been accompanied by a $96 billion rise in real GDP.

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