215 thoughts on “PORTFOLIO CHANGE

  1. Curtains

    Seems like the 200 is holding for now… but for how long? TZ, are you still long here? WW, I assume you’re going short if we breach the 200?

  2. ckpc


    Looks like your short at 1715 is playing out beautifully. Gold is testing 1680 again here after the FOMC decision. Will it hold or breach? So far, it’s holding.

  3. Unknown

    $1,680 breached ($1,677.60) but it bounced right back above it. Have to see how this plays out over the rest of today and tomorrow.

  4. DP

    Hey folks —

    Going to try futures.

    Novice question — how can I control leverage, if I am buying N contracts and have far exceeding their cost amount of cash on the account?

  5. catbird


    It sounds like you are not taking on any leverage if the liquidation value of your account is greater than the amount of the commodity (say, gold) controlled by your contracts.

    1. DP

      Catbird —


      Than in other words, that’s really different from, say, options, when you can trade very small potion of your account, but still have a leverage.

    2. catbird


      With futures, the multiplier is key. One GC (gold contract) has a multiplier of 100. So although the April ’12 GC is 1674 as I type, buying just ONE would give your account exposure to 100 ounces of gold. So your account will move as if you had bought $167,400 worth of gold.

      The scary thing is you only need $10,125 in your account per contract of GC!! (and $7,500 maintenance margin)

      This is why Gary says excessive leverage ALWAYS results in a blown out account.

    1. MrMiyagi

      All markets except Russell 2K breaking upper BB band (10,1.9). Might, just might have a reversal tomorrow. Frankly I don’t know what to make of this, playing it day by day.

    1. TZ(8155)

      Well…if we break the low of last week it will clearly head down and indicate this was only a sharp bear rally.

      I made a cowboy move and put my stops above that low not wanting to take the slippage if it broke. It remains to be seen whether that was a good move or not yet.

      If the low holds and we resume up (I think the inflation trade is clearly starting to kick in) then I will have thrown away the position (but in order to keep the position breakeven).

  6. William Wallace

    The 220dma is support again as it was on the 3/6 200dma flush. This is an unlikely bottom now that it has been revisited, so dont be suckered if gold bounces off it again.

  7. TommyD

    I hope my Psychiatrist likes my new pink tutu dress. I will surprise her with my improvements with the Arabesque Onlair and my Fouette.

    WW, Much looking forward to the 300DMA you mentioned.

  8. Gary

    Gold has clearly printed another failed daily cycle. Why would anyone buy until we either get into the timing band for an ICL or the pattern of lower lows and lower highs is reversed?

  9. Johnny

    WW- thanks for the heads up on the 10&20 cross, I closed my gold position on the high today and essentially broke even.. You certainly are reading those MA well! Nice call..

  10. William Wallace

    Recently I mentioned that a close below the 50dma would initiate the next leg down, pushing gold below the 200dma again and making a new low, here we are. The 200dma has failed to halt this decline for a second time now.

  11. matrix

    WW, do you think we bottom at the 300 sma……???so above GLD 148…or we go even lower..?? My guess is we are in a Wave 2 down, started C down…..towards 300 sma….

    1. William Wallace


      If this decline reaches and is not halted by the 300dma on a closing basis, then gold is most likely still in a D-wave decline, we can then talk about how low it will go if and when that time comes.

  12. sophia


    Closed my short from Friday, made 15$…as I said before will wait for 1603 to get long, not before….
    My feeling is that it is Opex week, so those long stocks are getting to get trashed by Friday..l.LOL

  13. Keith Shepard

    Fantastic market. Stocks just crushing it this year. XHB up +25% year-to-date. Banks are doing well. Technology is awesome and more great innovation is in the pipeline. A lot of positives for Equities.

  14. Bill

    Hey hey hey. I think $GOLD has bottomed here/now. It is at 150d EMA support (ref: Aden Sisters). Also, action on the daily chart since Sept looks like an inverse H&S pattern, and today we just finished the right shoulder. If price goes up, I will follow.

  15. Bill

    Uh, just to be clear: I am not predicting anything.

    I’m just saying that since we are at long term support (150d EMA), if price goes up I will follow, with a stop.

    And, price may go down, and if so I’ll continue to wait to buy.

  16. riley

    I finally decided this market is what Gary considers runaway, and feel money is drawn to equities. If equities bust in near future I don’t think money will move to gold, as feel probable move to cash. I shorted gold with WW at 1712(not as good price), but still hold. The crazy thing is holding 2dx futures from 79.10. For life of me can not figure why dollar heading up, gold down, and equites up? I now have stop on Dx at 79.8. Anyway plan on dragging stop on gold future down to $1700 and watching until or if gold hits 1600 or my stop first.

    On aside bought 2 soybean futures at 1340 if anyone interested, looking for big move. If not already in money.

    Slumdog if out there what do you see in silver. My crazy soul almost forecasts a buy but my gold look negative so holding off until what is percieved as ICL.

  17. riley

    Veronica do you have buy signals for silver, much interested. Your longterm outlook phenominal compared to many I have seen or followed for yrs. Me, more daily to weekly trader. And of course a gold buy, if any.

  18. Veronica

    WW, sent you an e-mail. Riley, I do have a system for silver but I have to run it with SLV as the aftermarket prices of silver cause it to perform less consistantly. It has a track record of 60% winning trades with the winners 2.1 times the size of losers.

  19. riley

    Veronica never calculated %of trade winners only % of yr gains. 2.1 @ 60% is beyond me, meaning smokes my 10-15% yr. My trading % higher last few yrs but always avg in my long term accounts to keep me grounded. If see a buy in silver let us know. I mentioned to slumdog I can not trade silver but look for long term buys(to me anything from 1mos-yr), wish had fortitude of slumdog as he held since $8 silver. Anyway always asking of my betters when see favorable price. Must admit this market has me questioning? But will watch an adjust, Thanks for posts.

  20. Veronica

    Riley, I probably will not trade silver until it makes a new high but have been buying for long term holds since SLV 26.00 as I sold a chunk of my silver at about 47.00.

  21. riley

    Thanks, my goal is buy$32 then add at $30, now not sure will get my buys. I try not to chase. Main focus gold so not worried but like portion of silver future. If breaks $35 will buy also and forget lower prices. As always depends on movement.

    WW hope you are in bed.LOL

  22. NJ

    WW: Look forward to hearing your thoughts on the likelyhood of D wave. Will be know if it breaches the 300dMA @ 1600? Or do we wait for 1523 to be taken out? Thanks!

  23. William Wallace

    The rate at which gold is approaching the 300dma is either going to shorten this intermediate cycle drastically, or its very possible a D-wave is still in effect and gold breaches the 300dma decisively and most likely takes out the 1523 low.

    1. Turning Japanese


      Do you ever look at weekly SMAs? Gold 2008 tagged through and closed on or above the 150 SMA for a few weeks before starting the new C-wave. What is the possibility we see that for this D-wave? That would be a scary drop to around 1330.

      Thanks, and appreciate all of your comments on the subscriber and free blogs.

  24. Dan

    If we were to breach the 300dma then where do we buy? It will largely be a guessing game as we only have 2008 as an example.

    1. Unknown

      Ditto WW. This is the kind of volatility we saw last fall. Good luck waiting for a specific timing band. I want to buy close to the bottom, which may or may not be in the timing band.

    1. Sooth Sayah

      …said the blind masseuse! Sorry, I’m thinking gold will drop to 1628 and recover to close above 1650 today. The bottom will be carved this week.

  25. Greenspansconscience

    Look at TMV’s weekly chart. Look at the epic divergence. Look at the massive base.
    Is anything 100%? Of course not. But even you pointed out something was going on at the start of the year. I think your hyperinflation call will end up being dead on.

  26. Gary

    But that isn’t due until late 2014 at the earliest. Right now we have a dollar still rallying strongly out of a three year cycle low.

    We can’t get hyperinflation until the dollar gets on the downside of its three year cycle.

  27. www.gregor.us

    Nice call and hat tip to Gary, who stalked the USD strength for some time, and got paid. I expect the FED will make an appearance at least in words, however, if DXY spends too much time above 80.00. The bigger question now, however, is what happens to the capital that exits Treasuries? Sure, it’s going to stocks. But where else? Best, G

    1. Frank


      I happened to have a three month chart of miners and gold open. I added RGLD and it’s the only “miner” that is negative over 3 months. Over longer periods the company does not outperform GLD, so there is no point owning it versus the metal.

    2. Frank

      Because RGLD does not perform better than GLD over time, so you are better off buying the metal. There is execution risk in RGLD’s business model.

  28. Slumdog

    Sophia, follow Gary’s lead on PM’s. This is a flush out of the early buyers, still committed to a trend. 30 in SIL is not the number. The number imo is based on a flush out of the repositioners, the “stackers”, who thought this is a trend continuation. Gary has said it’s the backside of a parabola. The timing on the 5 and 10 yr parabolic formations still has plenty of timing room to allow a lot more folks to lose money on the long side. I watch with great sadness due to my committed position in SIL physical. Just shake off the anxiety that SIL is a cork bouncing on the surface of the water in the tub. Patience. We will see capitulation, and while this feels like it, it’s not. Go look at the post parabolic behavior of PM’s post 1980-81. Wait. Gary won’t miss this PM turn. This may be a good flush of the longs, now. And then there’s a waiting period. Think of something else to do with your time.

  29. Greenspansconscience

    Until Ben states there will be a QE to keep rates low, gold and silver could be under pressure. Of course the primary dealers will know this in advance and so we could see them bottom before the announcement. That bottom will be the buy of our lifetimes, IMO.

    1. TZ(8155)

      CEF is 50/50 gold and silver.

      May I be Socratic and ask that you attempt an answer before I respond?
      The exercise may be enlightening.

      (I have often pondered that Gary should have an outstanding rule on his blog whereby he won’t answer a question from anybody who doesn’t attempt to answer the same question and outline their attempt in the same post. I think that is what I would do if I had a blog.)

      Not being a jerk. I just know from experience that the exchange is better for EVERYBODY when that happens.

    2. TZ(8155)

      So…having said that CEF is 50/50 gold and silver (which may have been a missing fact), can you formulate 2 or 3 reasons, pro or con, for me using that measure vs GLD?

    3. Greenspansconscience

      CEF has a NAV that fluctuates pretty wildly. That’s why it by no means a perfect proxy for “straight metal.”. Gld also has a certain amount ofndecay due to the fact it is an etf, so I would not use it either. $gold is as close to “straight metal” as will can get.

      Thanks for wasting my time instead of just conceding, like a man should, that you were wrong to use CEF to support your hackneyed thesis on the miners.

    4. TZ(8155)

      Actually it doesn’t.

      Look VERY CLOSELY at the page from central fund which calculates the NAV daily.

      VERY closely.
      Do you see it?

  30. Greenspansconscience

    I’m saying if real rates are positive, or merely just less negative, it’s probably not good for gold all else equal. So yes, in theory gold and bonds could sink together. When a bond collapse turns into a currency collapse is the point where the powers that be step in and priint currency to buy their own debt. They wont be doing it out of choice. If they don’t, the US govt wont be able to pay the interest on the debt, which will mean a default, which means an end to their source of power and control. It’s at this point of realization that gold will explode upwards.

    1. Greenspansconscience

      I don’t think so. I think the Fed will have to step in soon to keep a lid on interest rates. I think it will all start unraveling pretty quickly thereafter. As gary has said, at some point in all of this, the cycles will fail. I wonder how well cycles theory held up in Weimar and Zimbabwe near the end.

  31. Gary

    The earliest we could see hyperinfllation would be at the next three year cycle low. That isn’t due until late 2014. Right now the dollar is still on the upside of the current three year cycle.

  32. Slumdog

    OT Rant: Every single time it appears that the USGovt is sunk, trapped in its own unpayable debt, it reaches for QE. And the public around the world genuflects and says, “May I have another?”, with trepidation and hope.

    IMO, this is a psychological area in which humans are trapped. We can’t say no to our parents for fear of immeasurable consequences. It’s like individuation ain’t gonna occur. Humans aren’t alive and active in biz long enough to refine the separation between self and State. Syria… state crushing the individual. Many places just like it. US… state crushing the individual not acting in the way the State wants and needs.

    If we all just go along, and submit to what they want, if we identify the trend before it’s end phase, we will win the game.

    Many here distrust the State and thus are individually “stacking”. And this too is not the sole answer. It’s more complex than one way or the other.

    More and more, modulated growing inflation. Gary’s cycle estimate is 2014 for PM’s. That’s inflation increasing over the next 2 years, and another swoon of dependence and capitulation to the State, or another embracement of the State and participation in the Home Team’s game.

    Where’s mom to give me the answers?

  33. YesLetsDiscuss


    Do you expect it to be a left translated three year cycle? If so, while the three year cycle low is due in 2014, the top should be in at least by fall 2012. Now, if there is concerted effort to keep the stock market at elevated levels until election time (there will be dips along the way), the dollar cannot have a sustained rise even into fall. So perhaps, the next IC will mark the three year cycle top and lead to the start of the blow off stage in precious metals as the dollar declines into the three year cycle low in 2014. Any merit to this thought?

    1. Greenspansconscience

      I don’t “hope” for anything but a return to a level playing field, where the common man has just as much a chance to win as someone who gets first dibs on free money.

      Bring on the deflationary collapse (with full knowldge i would suffer in the short run) i say. But i know with 100% certainty that TPTB wont ever let that happen unfortunately.

    2. Speedy

      Since these comments will be piled into the archive bin in the next 12 to 72 hours, they will be long forgotten by the time any longer-term issures are addressed.

  34. riley

    Can’t believe another QE as already driving gas prices higher. Gas price can kill economy, hence need dollar higher. If can keep gas below $4 then Obama gets elected then who knows—QE inflation. I place my small bets on higher dollar until election—with stops.

  35. AGoldhamster

    Today the first time I bought back part of the coins I sold last August.
    For something in between 2200 and 2400.

    If we go lower – gonna buy more physical.
    But having my doubts about considerable lower lows.

  36. matrix

    some Technicals calling for a bounce soon. Even asfrom tomorrow…..though it may not be THE low, which may be 1st. days of May. Lets see….GDX did not violate 49.22 and it may hold….

  37. Bill

    Man, 10 and 30 yr rates decisively broke out today. This could kill the gold bull. $HUI also closing below 500. The whole PM sector may enter a steep and lasting decline here, unless QE3 or something kicks in.

    1. Gary

      I keep telling everyone to wait till gold gets into the timing band for an intermediate cycle low. This is what happens on the backside of a broken parabola. It whipsaws and grinds lower till no one believes any longer.

      The bull is still a long way from being over yet. But there are trying times ahead for gold bulls.

    1. Gary

      Bull markets aren’t made or broken by technical levels. Gold may still be in a D-wave but that doesn’t mean the bull is done. This bull will end like all bull, with an absolutely incredible parabolic spike that will take gold into the stratosphere.

    2. Bill

      Gary, did you see $TNX and $TYX? They looks like major breakouts. I’m not a cycles follower as you know, but based on the bond rate action, I’d say we’re still in the D wave for $GOLD. I wouldn’t be surprised to see gold go a LOT lower now.

    3. Unknown

      Rates are definitely backing up on the long end. IMO, that is what is now driving equities higher…. money coming out of bonds into equities.

      I don’t believe gold will be seriously affected by higher long rates until real interest rates (nominal rates minus inflation) are at least 4% – 5% for several months. Do you realize what that would do to housing and the economy, to say nothing of interest payments on the national debt? No way in hell is Benny going to let long rates back up very far before he starts buying the long end. Whether the Fed can cap rates on the long end remains to be seen, but I guarantee you he will sure as hell try.

  38. matrix

    Not that I want to contradict Cycle theory, which you master v. well, and I respect yor thought for that, precisely, but had the interpretation that certain level ( mainly for the LT trend) need be support of the trend. In such case the 65 week sma is the one i follow, + -….for the bull case, or the 315 sma daily.It hold in Dec. 29, needs hold now too. Just a technical contribution with no aim to contradict nor oppose the cycle view, which is the basis for entries in this site, and have been succesful. Most prolly, they may coincide. Tks. for allowing posts, ideas and for the analysis provided here in blog.

  39. Tiho

    US Dollar is not as strong as it looks, and that has been my point of difference with majority of investors over the last few weeks. Currently, I think the Dollar rally, which started at the start of the month on the DXY, is over for awhile. I’d expect the Dollar to retreat for awhile now and currencies to rally.

    From the short term perspective Yen is oversold, Franc is oversold, Aussie Dollar is oversold, even Silver is oversold as it corrected almost 17% from the its recent peak. Finally, I still remain short Dollar vs Franc at 95 cents back from middle of January ’12 and long Silver at $26.70 back in late December ’11… both of these trends should continue as Dollar weakness. On top of that, I think Japanese Yen is a great buying opportunity right here, so short the Dollar Yen around these levels. Bernanke won’t hike rates, that is just a dream…

  40. TZ(8155)

    I agreen with GreenspanC that rates have peaked. Gary asked why isn’t this the same as previous peaks. I’ll reply:

    This is the ONLY low (in rates) going back 15-20 years in either the 10yr ($TNX) or 30yr ($TYX) with an extended rounded bottom. The ONLY ONE.

    There are ZERO other instances where rates went down to low and put in a CLEAR exhaustion/DISTRIBUTION pattern of a long slow roll-over. A HUGE amount of debt just got shifted from from one LARGE group to another LARGE group.

    It took SIX MONTHS, but now the deed is done and I believe the USA has just started on its date with destiny.

    ALL other previous lows (in rates)would be spikes down, then back up. Maybe a triangle of congestion along the way, etc. NOTHING like a slow huge distribution. NOTHING. (Find it and show me if you can).

    Remember, at SOME point the market will say ‘no more’ and heave under the weight of fiat distress.

    That point started two days ago, in my opinion. I don’t think those low rates will ever be seen again for many decades.

    Why not play it? Because it involves shorting and I don’t believe shorting is a good way to make money. Better to play the opposite long.

  41. Tiho

    p.s. Traders who bought Silver around $26 in late December, when majority were bearish, should think about adding a bit more to their positions around $32 right now, after a recent 17% correction.

    While nothing is guaranteed, there is a good chance that the rally from 29th of December ’11 @ $26.15 bottom all the way to $37.51 on 29th of February ’12 has now corrected in a form of a 50% retracement and that correction could be finished.

    It will be interesting to see how things play out, because one of the major risks is the way Gold looks quite tired and is in a sideways consolidation at best or a bear market at worst. Not surprising, after 11 annual gains in the row.

    Remember that the S&P 500 never managed to clock 11 annual gains in the row during its 1982 to 2000 secular bull market, so chances are Gold will eventually surprise to the downside one of these years, prior to the parabolic blow off top.

  42. William Wallace

    If we do indeed have a gold DCL here on day 23, I expect we will at minimum see a backtest of the 200dma, before this DC tops. I placed a stop below yesterday’s low (1634) on the current gold futures($1640)long from my yesterday morning post. I would like to see gold hold off the 300dma for atleast another entire DC, which will put us in a more normal B-wave IC timing band. Lets see how things go.

  43. TZ(8155)

    By the way, a month *before* the 10yr and 30yr bond started dropping (in the last two days), the MUB Municipal bond index started falling off a cliff:


    Signs, baby. Signs.

    “It” has to start at some point. Why not now?

  44. TZ(8155)

    There is a contrary view, however, that could explain what we are seeing (but not necessarily argue for rates to go lower). I’m listening to Bob Hoye right now and pondering a few other details. Comments later when I’m more awake.

  45. Matt


    Did you wait to set your stop until EOD yesterday? I went long around the same time you did when the low was 1639. I was stopped out later in the day when it dropped to 1634. Just curious… trying to hone my skills. If this is true, is it routine not to have a stop in this scenario? Seems kinda’ risky. Thanks for the help my friend.

    1. William Wallace


      Yes I waited until EOD to place my stop, like I was explaining to Cap Morgan, more often then not when gold bottoms intraday if it consolidates and doesn’t surge out of the bottom it will consolidate and then flush to a marginal new low before moving higher(as we seen yesterday morning). We also see this happen alot near tops, gold will push to a marginal new intraday high and then quickly reverse and grind lower.

  46. Gary

    I doubt $1300 is in the cards but gold could test the 2010 consolidation zone around $1400 if it breaks through $1523.

  47. Glenn

    Amazing how we always start talking d wave in any down turn. Doesn’t cycle analysis
    work as a predictor? Hindsight is always 20-20.

  48. Gary

    I just don’t think there’s any need to bother with the PM sector until gold gets into the timing band for an intermediate cycle low. That’s still probably a minimum of 7 weeks away. Which also means the dollar probably has 7-8 weeks to rally before this intermediate cycle tops.

  49. Dan

    I think the concern people have with waiting on cycles is missing the bottom like in December. Cycles clearly missed that bottom.

  50. Greenspansconscience

    If the HUI:gold ratio tags the 08 lows before a confirmed IT bottom, i will likely initiate a small position. When Gary and Doc give the all clear, I will go all in. The symmetry on the $hui:$gold chart (daily and weekly) from the ’08 lows is striking. If the miners are ever going to outperform, now is the time. It’s worthy of a substantial bet IMO. All the factors are lining up in incredible fashion.

    1. Gary

      I think gold bugs need to get through the denial stage and accept that gold is going lower and so are miners. Probably a lot lower during the dollars next leg up.

      Just wait till gold is in the timing band for the next intermediate cycle low. That is your buying opportunity. Impatience right now is just going to cause you to give back everything you made during the C-wave.

    2. Greenspansconscience

      Definitely not going to jump all in until you give the go ahead on the IT low. At most I would take couple of percent position in a couple of miners on an extreme panic day in which we tag the 08 ratio bottom. I think these events will probably more or less coincide anyway.

    1. Gary

      Nope. Almost the exact same percentage wise. Plus we managed to exit at tops and re enter at bottoms so far outperformed a simple buy and hold in gold. Not to mention we have avoided this entire decline. That in itself is probably more important than any gains. We haven’t given anything back.

  51. Greenspansconscience

    I am willing to bet the doublewide gold will never see $1300 again. $1300 Ameros maybe, or 1300SDRs, but not dollars. Absolutely NOTHING has been changed. The imbalances have simply been pushed to further extremes.
    I am willing to revise my thesis if the facts present themselves. For example, some new technolgy that hugely changes the world–like fusion power or teleportation– comes into existence, lol.

  52. Greenspansconscience

    Another positive for the miners is the HUGE positive divergence on the MACD on the weekly $hui:$gold chart. Yes, the ratio can go lower, but what it does suggest is that a huge, sustained rally lies somwhere in the not too distant future. Again, another factor lining up…

    1. Gary

      Pretty unlikely. The intermediate cycle just started. Plus Bernanke needs to let the Euro drop or Europe is going to collapse in recession. That’s not going to help anyone.

      Bernanke won’t do anything until the dollar reaches his line in the sand (roughly 88 on the dollar index.

    2. AGoldhamster

      There is going to be economic improvement for the next couple of weeks, a few months – combined with stress putting a bid under oil. This should anyway support equities. That will support rates. That will weaken the JPY. That will support the carry trade and a general mood of risk on and everything is well.
      Threats only by stress via oil or gatherings in the streets.
      In last decade there were also periods with rising rates and weakening yen and still the metals and hard assets climbing north. Matter of liquidity and greed.
      That whole process is going to repeat – just much faster and in a much shorter timeframe. Better get used to considerable higher prices across the board.
      Before everything collapses again.

  53. William Wallace


    Yes I waited until EOD to place my stop, like I was explaining to Cap Morgan, more often then not when gold bottoms intraday if it consolidates and doesn’t surge out of the bottom it will consolidate and then flush to a marginal new low before moving higher(as we seen yesterday morning). We also see this happen alot near tops, gold will push to a marginal new intraday high and then quickly reverse and grind lower.

  54. William Wallace

    A-waves and B-waves always make up a short intermediate cycle…So if gold is indeed in a B-wave and no longer a D-wave, waiting for a ICL to fall within a normal timing band is asking to be left behind again, as was the case with the Dec low.

  55. Unknown

    “A-waves and B-waves always make up a short intermediate cycle…So if gold is indeed in a B-wave and no longer a D-wave, waiting for a ICL to fall within a normal timing band is asking to be left behind again, as was the case with the Dec low.”

    That is why I bought a large hunk of physial gold yesterday at the closing spot price and am hoping for another drop to the 300dma where I will buy even more….. regardless of where we are in the timing cycle.

    I didn’t jump on the 12/29 low and I have no intention of missing this one.

  56. Piazzi

    since the parabola, gold is underperforming S&P. It’s underperforming corporate bond index. It’s underperforming REITS. It’s underperforming utilities

    If someone is a trader with good sense of pulse of gold, then fineif one allocayes a small percentage to gold as an anchor of good money, then fine, but, other than that, why would anyone maintain a full weighting, or overweight in an underperforming asset?

  57. Tiho

    AGoldhamster – In my opinion the Dollar already tope in January against the Euro, Franc, Pound etc etc and now it is topping against the Yen. Bulls apparently think it will rally for another 7 to 8 weeks. I find that very difficult to believe. I think in 7 to 8 weeks, Euro will be close to $1.40 than anything else.

    1. Gary

      Europe is in no shape to withstand an appreciating currency. It would collapse the European economy and that just isn’t in anyone’s best interest.

      Bernanke won’t move until the dollar gets back up to his line in the sand (88)or interests rates spike too high.

    2. Bill

      Gary, what is the difference between Europe and the US, in terms of the impact of a rising currency? I think they are the same. So if what you think is right about Europe, wouldn’t the resulting rising dollar kill the US economy?

    3. Gary

      The US has chosen the path of stimulus. We aren’t even close to falling back into recession yet. Europe on the other hand has gone down the austerity path and is stagnate if not already contracting.

      Right now the most important currency issue for everyone is for the Euro to weaken and soften the damage being done by austerity in Europe.

    4. Tiho


      If you are going to talk eco-politics and currency wars, than you should at least try and get it right. To start of with, I agree with the view that strong Euro is economically bad for the PIIGS. But PIIGS are not the whole of EU. The strong Euro does not affect Germany as much – it affects exports, but it is not the end of the world. germany ran surplus trade balances with Euro above $1.40 and even above $1.50.

      Now, the partI do not agree with is to do with major powers interests. It is in no ones interest to have a strong Dollar as major powers all want strong Euro for the sake of having a competing currency worth diversifying into. First of all, US does not want a strong Dollar as they are aiming to increase exports. That is Obama administrations goal and they plan to weakness the Dollar as much as possible to achieve that goal. Second of all, China does not want a strong Dollar as it impacts its trade balance, as we have seen in the recent days, where they are posting a deficit. Finally, Europe does not want a strong Dollar because northern Europeans prefer sound currency and that means they would rather the Euro trade like a Deutsche Mark than a Greek Drachma. With all three powers wanting a weak Dollar, you are going to get a weak Dollar eventually, despite what your 200 week moving average says about a new secular bull market.

      I’m struggling to see how the Dollar (DXY) is about to get to 88 on the Index, until the recession comes maybe in 2013/14. For now that is just a dream. First of all, I would like to point out that the Dollar has actually made new lows below 2008 last year and after an 11 month rally (May 2011 until now) it is still amazingly weak and nowhere higher than previous lows – click here for chart. Second of all, every man and his dog is short the Euro, Pound, Franc, Yen etc etc etc. Consensus for Dollar is to keep going up and majority are net long Dollars – click here for chart.

      In my opinion, it is not a good time to be bullish on the US Dollar, when majority of Dumb Money are also on the same side of the boat. When the Dollar turns down and cuts the 200 MA soon enough, you going to claim that the Dollar bears got lucky and Bernanke said something sometime somewhere that “changed everything”. But the facts are on the wall and trading with prevailing consensus doesn’t result in strong returns.

    5. Tiho

      The US has chosen the path of stimulus. We aren’t even close to falling back into recession yet.

      You are contradicting yourself here. With no recession in sight, why would you want to be long the US Dollar? Greenback only really does very well during time soy economic slowdown or contraction / recession as banks pull away lending, credit becomes tight and dollar funding boast the price of Dollars on the open market.

      Right now the most important currency issue for everyone is for the Euro to weaken and soften the damage being done by austerity in Europe.

      That is completely wrong. The most important issue for Obama / Bernanke is to weaken the Dollar to increase exports and maintain economic growth. Housing is not yet in recovery, so that is their best bet. At the same time, Chinese most important issue to to maintain their trade balance in surplus and that means weakening the Dollar, by purchasing Euros (diversifying out of Treasuries into Bunds, or even other EU bonds).

    6. Gary

      Yes I know you’ve been beating the everyone’s short the Euro drum for months now. But it just isn’t true. The COT levels have come well off those lows and sentiment has reverted back to neutral.

      The fact remains that the dollar is still on the upside of the rally out of the three year cycle low. The pattern of higher intermediate highs and higher intermediate lows is still firmly in place. Until that changes there’s no indication of a top yet.

      Right now we have a new intermediate cycle that’s only 12 days old and it’s already within striking distance of new highs. We may get a test of the support/resistance zone around 80 tomorrow but the odds are pretty good that this first daily cycle will test the recent highs. The next daily cycle should easily make new highs and the third daily cycle will probably push the dollar up close to Bernanke’s “line in the sand”.

      When the pattern of higher highs and higher lows reverses then I will be more than happy to revert to a dollar bear. But that clearly isn’t the case yet.

    7. Tiho

      Finally, while I am a Dollar bear, I also do note that there is a possibility one could always be wrong on any call. Therefore, if the stock market was to sell off by 10% to 15% in coming months, the Dollar has a chance to spike higher. At that point, I’d still rather not own the Dollars, but rather own the Japanese Yen instead. Therefore, you still remain a Dollar bear by shorting it and long Yen, which should benefit in any risk off environment.

    8. Gary

      “Greenback only really does very well during time soy economic slowdown or contraction / recession”.

      Nope, the dollar rises in times of deflation, but also during times of economic growth. Notice how the dollar rallied violently when the jobs report showed improvement.

      “Chinese most important issue to to maintain their trade balance in surplus and that means weakening the Dollar”

      Wrong again. China is slowing. That means they will re-peg to the the dollar as inflation has been brought back under control. They need to stimulate again so they need a weaker Juan and a stronger dollar.

    9. Tiho

      “Notice how the dollar rallied violently when the jobs report showed improvement.”

      I can see you need some help, so I’ll try and explain it again. Jobs growth is part of Feds mandate, so better jobs = less need for QE3 and less money printing is good for the Dollar relative to its peers from the short term perspective. In other words, investor who shorted the Dollar based on QE3 had to cover. Therefore, Dollar rally has nothing to do with “economic growth” or “improvement in the data”, just perceptions of investors relative to further QE3 prospects. Dollar will weaken again, when investors notice that data is weakening relative to its peers, because it might prompt Bernanke to engage into QE3.

      “Wrong again. China is slowing. That means they will re-peg to the the dollar as inflation has been brought back under control. They need to stimulate again so they need a weaker Juan and a stronger dollar.”

      Actually, you are wrong again and quite often so. Chinese need a weak Dollar and a strong Euro. Why? Largest trading partner is not the US, but European Union. The stronger the Euro, the more the Europeans can buy from Chinese, who still want a trade surpluses through exports. Chinese trade deficit came about because EU has slowed down, and Italians/ Spanish pretty much bought nothing from Chinese last quarter.

      With a strong Dollar (weak Euro), that will continue so the Chinese would love for the Euro to strength (Dollar to weaken) and for their exports to gain traction toward their largest trading partner. To be honest with you, day by day, I’m noticing that you just making it up as you go along…

    10. AGoldhamster

      Astro pattern are close to a longer lasting wave of improving economic condictions.
      That will drive rates higher – ACROSS THE GLOBE – and lead to a revival of the Yen carry trades – with all its aftermath. Just go back and look what happened around a decade (10y cycle) earlier.

      In the end it doesn’t matter much whether the dollar or the Eurpo will be stronger, that might change from year to year ot so – but the point is that we are close to enter an expanding wave and that rarely led to lower gold and stocks.

      And this last selloff in PMs just confirms that that also the boyz are well aware of that wave just around the corner, so they got rid of a bunch of their shorts.

      BTW .. do I see an inverted SHS in silver just being close to finished?
      Maybe a fast dip lower once more – but IMHO we are close to a MAJOR leg north.
      Nuf said.

  58. AGoldhamster

    “ALL” my major inputs regarding metals are pointing towards a low anytime from now on thru until mid next week or so.

    Targets around 40-50% higher.

    Nevertheless – or maybe even because – rates eventually are going to triple.

    I’m not at all interested into where USD or EUR will go. They may whipsaw all day and week and month and years long. I will be in the metal – and eventually in some related paper.

    Next post possibly not before we are close to a top again.

    Gary – you better are on high alert now.
    Just friendly advice.

    1. Gary

      The dollar should have a short term top some time soon and that will drive another sucker rally in gold but I doubt the dollar will top until late April or early May or until Bernanke does something to break the rally.

      You guys have been consistently wrong with your bottom calling. I think I’ll stick with my cycles. They have allowed me to avoids the entire D-wave and even catch the bottom in miners out of the Dec. bottom. They rarely let me down and the next intermediate cycle low isn’t due till, surprisingly about late April or early May.

      So go ahead keep calling bottoms in a down trending market. Eventually you will get it right, although I don’t know if you will have any capital left by then.

    2. Gary

      I will if I think a daily cycle low has the possibility for a tradable bounce. The last DCL rallied for 4 days. Also I’m not confident of the cycle count right here so I’m not really interested in the metals at the moment.


    you’re completely wrong… we’ve called the bottom when gold crash to 1554 from 1920… the rest is just meandering… you’re still waiting for a lower dec low.. which aint gonna happen.

    1. Gary

      On the contrary I’ve been saying in all the nightly reports that I think this is a B-wave and should hold above $1523. Get your facts straight.

  60. JEFFtheFLEA

    Gary help make us money, I dont see any help from Tiho. He told us what he did six months ago, but we have been makeing money on the upside of the dollar without the drawdowns

    1. Gary

      Tiho is one of those traders who needs to be right. He wants to say “I told you so” Unfortunately that’s not how one makes money in this business. You make money by following trends and taking trades with the highest odds of winning. If the trade doesn’t work you try to recognize it as quickly as possible and cut your loss fast.

      That’s what we have been doing and so far it’s worked pretty well in a very tough market. Maybe 30% isn’t good enough for Tiho, it’s good enough for me though, so I’m not going to change something that isn’t broken.

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