93 thoughts on “Portfolio Change

  1. TZ(8155)

    Arrr…you new posted me on my last three posts.

    Good job on the new format gary/gurvir. GREAT improvement with the comment box location and no need to scroll after each post!!

  2. TZ(8155)

    I called a top in apple 2 weeks ago at approx 520. My system isn’t perfect and that call was clearly early (it happens a certain % of the time cause the metrics I use are somewhat subjective).

    The updated top was today, in my opinion, however.

    It is rare that a 2nd call is wrong, but to each their own. Just saying for what it is worth.

    (I’m not shorting cause I find it hard to make money shorting. But I’d sell 100% if I was long. Of course I would already be out from my earlier call. And of course Sentiment trader showed how 500billion companys are down 1month after reaching that level too.)

    If apple peaked, then (as the market darling) the overall market might have also. Which would mean vix heading higher and, I guess, dollar. Which would also mean metal weakness as well.

    So I guess things have all lined up pretty well at this point.

  3. GottaHaveIt


    I know you preach against going short and I normally agree with you.

    However, I bought some SDS and QID today. And I have EUO from last week.

    I really hate being on the “dark side” but at least SDS and QID are green today.

  4. TZ(8155)


    The most recent attempt at “NOW mining stocks will outperform, I just *know* it!” has again failed. The ratio rolled over and has dropped heading for new lows.

    This isn’t a jab at anybody in particular. A LOT of people continue to tout them as undervalued and I myself traded them for a number of years until it sunk in. But they simply continue to not be great buys to play the metals sector.

  5. TZ(8155)


    You gonna love me:


    This script/widget allows blocking of a custom list of blogger posters. (Something blogger itself still hasn’t implemented).

    Won’t change the site or the way things work or look it seems.

    Gurvir just has to follow the instructions and then show you how to edit the text page containing the ID’s of people to block.

    Problem solved. You can get on with other things in your life.

  6. Shalom Bernanke


    Since we’ve watched your forays into gold futures the last 6-8 months, you have booked losses of around 10.5%, from your own mouth, that is if your posts are accurate. As far as we know, yo no longer have a position. Is this correct?

  7. TZ(8155)

    I’m down about that much overall since booking silver gains last year. There is much measurement leeway and obviously it isn’t a straight line (like we all saw last week) – the returns go up and down.

    Is there a critique coming?….

  8. TZ(8155)

    I have a core position (as always…since I *do* believe in manipulation and since I *do* understand where this game is headed) and cash.

    I stopped out and sold the silver and gold futures last week at break even (then made a bad trade for almost -3%).

  9. William Wallace


    I responded to your post pertaining to how I dealt with the leap day drop, not sure it posted though as the blog was a mess yesterday. Did you see it yesterday?

  10. William Wallace

    Although I seen the weakness in the morning, took off my last $1781 add around $1783, and was thinking that gold was about to rollover… I definitely had no clue that the drop would be that significant in one day. I just left my $1768 stop on my position thinking it wouldnt be hit, and planned on moving my stop up in the following session.

  11. William Wallace

    Gold’s normal behavior is to run higher into the European open, sell off into the morning, and put in a bottom before the US open. On the 29th if I recall gold traded flat all night into the morning until around 5:45, when it spiked anout 5-6$ in 5 min and immediately reversed and sold off 10-11$ in 15 min and traded flat until it fell off completely. The only time I see gold not sell off gradually from the European open into a bottom in the morning is on narrow range sessions or down days. To see gold spike in the morning and then immediatly get sold off double is almost always a sure sign of a selloff during the NY session.

  12. Gary

    There’s no option to change font size on comments. You’ll just have to pull out your reading glasses, same as me 🙂

  13. William Wallace

    Lol, dont mind pulling out the 3/4″ bifocals, its this editing problem that makes my head spin. I miss the old blog before having to identify ourselves by writing the characters, ever since then its been a mess, unless its just an Apple device pyoblem.

  14. TZ(8155)


    Fonts are changed in the font template:


    Just a bit more tweaking by Gurvir and you will be done. Don’t give up yet!!!

    When you make that change, use a font like ARIAL instead of the serif/Georgia you are using now (see below):

    Look at dan norcini’s blog again. The template on his page source says (in part):

    …Variable name=”body.font” description=”Font” type=”font”
    default=”normal normal 13px Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif”…

    He’s using 13 point Arial (then Tahoma, then xxx….) on his page. You just need, maybe 15 point Arial.

    Right now your blog source (same section) says:

    …Variable name=”bodyfont” description=”Text Font” type=”font” default=”normal normal 100% Georgia, Serif”…

    Notice the font is Georgia and Serif. There is no size other than 100% which will default to normal small for most browsers.

    Just change that section of your template and you should be good to go.

  15. TZ(8155)


    There is a second section on the page templates like this:

    body {
    font:x-small Georgia Serif;
    font-size/* */:/**/small;
    font-size: /**/small;
    text-align: center;

    That may be the one you have to change instead (or both of them together). Note they both say Georgia Serif and this one says x-small and small for size.

    I didn’t spend too much time on this but Gurvir can figure it out with 15min and a few previews. Case closed.

  16. TZ(8155)

    The rule to keep in mind is that MOST of what is on a page is changable, BUT blogger only has a few options on the ‘user friendly’ portions of its website. All the other stuff that isn’t brain dead simple has to be done in the guts of the pages themselves.

  17. TZ(8155)

    ARIAL **BOLD** font for the default instead of arial regular is often much easier to read.

    Just making the letters bigger if they are still mostly 1 pixel wide isn’t as good as making them bigger and 2-3 pixels in line width. Try it.

    1. Le Fou


      We can make our posts bold by using <.> at the beginning and at the end where the dot stands for a “b”. Of course, you already know that, but others might not.

      Le Fou

  18. SF Giants Fan


    Here is my problem. When I stop typing and move my cursor to fix an error. I lose control of the text an cannot edit any,ore. Anymore. I have to goto another window then go back and start over. I’m using an iPad and WW imight have same problem with iPhone. Very fustrating

  19. TZ(8155)


    Don’t know what that could be.

    No computer update or change is perfect. They all have bugs that have to be ironed out. That’s just how things are.

    The site is mostly working and clearly I think the comment box and the comment pages work better now. You can also sign on from multiple sources other than google.

    The fonts will be easy enough to fix shortly.

    And as far as the edit field I don’t know. The thing to do is be a bit patient and then just have Gurvir look at it with his or a friends ipad (if that is what you think the problem is).

    It will all be ok shortly. Just takes a bit of patience.

  20. William Wallace


    Exactly, its annoying the hell out of me, if I had the “posting patience” that TZ has it be a different story. It takes twice as long to write a post like this.

  21. TZ(8155)

    I’m sure it isn’t anything unfixable because obviously there are millions of people in the world using iphones and ipads on blogspot so I’m sure the problem can be solved.

  22. Gary

    Even with my poor vision I can easily read the comments. Like Mr. dad said if you want to enlarge the page just hit ctrl+

  23. TZ(8155)

    As you guys jump into the VIX trade you should read this from the WSJ over the weekend:


  24. TZ(8155)

    That vix trade you guys are in has a lot of people joining in. Not sure that is a good sign or not.

    I’m not trading it. Simply don’t like the security. The ETFs are NOT the same as buying the $VIX index which everybody follows. The ETFs are based on the futures and the futures do NOT follow the index well.

  25. William Wallace


    Im on vacation 🙂 Still on pain meds for another few days, and sleeping all screwed up still, so you definitely dont want me calling out any cockeyed trades at the moment…lol. We may see gold just chop sideways for a while, so be patient my friend.

  26. Gary

    The problem is in your AAPL device. I’ve heard other people say they took it to the AAPL store and got their problems fixed.

  27. Ohio Rob

    Gold is +-10 from the 200dma, WW will you be adding if it’s touched or are you waiting? Are there any other technical levels worth watching on gold or silver?

  28. William Wallace


    The 200dma will only serve for a bounce if that, its early in the cycle, with that one day dive it was reached quickly and will most certainly be breached

  29. William Wallace

    If look at a gold 5 min you can see the immediate high volume flush to the 220 after the 200 was breached. There was no support on any MA in between the 200 and 220. Everything in between was ineffective.

    1. jj

      on 5 min. I see gold is way below MA 220 or 200? it’s only on daily chart that I see 200 breach and 220 support.
      not sure i read it right.

  30. William Wallace


    If the 300dma doesnt hold on a closing basis the way it did in Dec, the D-wave will most likely still be in effect. The only time gold fell significantly below the 300dma was during the 08′ decline.

  31. MikeS

    I’ve got mine(out today), it’s been a good week. Gonna get a bounce here for a week or two before the actual bottom is put in

  32. Gary

    The dollar just began a new intermediate cycle. That’s unlikely to end for at least a month or two (probably 2 minimum). Gold will certainly have bounces from time to time to sucker traders back in (just like it did last Thursday) but it’s unlikely gold will form a lasting bottom until the dollar cycle tops.

    1. Unknown

      “Gold will certainly have bounces from time to time to sucker traders back in (just like it did last Thursday) but it’s unlikely gold will form a lasting bottom until the dollar cycle tops.”

      – Gary

      So if one is going to add physical gold, I assume it’s best to wait.

    1. Gary

      There’s no way to determine that ahead of time. I just track the cycles and sentiment and try to pick a bottom in real time when it occurs.

  33. Slumdog

    Unless there is a major decline in the SnP down below 3%, this is a move in that direction. Dynamite Triangle 6X will appear, with low probability it won’t.
    Anyone trying to catch the bottom even in gold at this time is catching a falling knife. It’s a gambler’s bet, not an investor’s position. Winning or losing is meaningless in that falling knife trade. Compulsive gamblers have their own website.

  34. TZ(8155)

    I’m expecting a bounce back up of some sort. Will then sell a fraction to reduce the risk to break-even and let the remaining contracts ride.

  35. TZ(8155)

    SLUMDOG, I had only two places (well, possibly three) for gold to hold and bounce on the way lower. This zone is one of them.

    I simply play those zones, small stops, and try to get to break even as soon as possible.

    The trade might lose, but I’m following a plan and not just a hunch.

  36. SF Giants Fan

    Isn’t just amazing how all the bad news comes out now, when a week ago is was all roses. Like big money uses the media in their favor to help move/flush the market.

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