A rather interesting development occurred on Friday, and one that I wasn’t really expecting. The dollar sliced right through its intermediate trend line on its first attempt. I thought for sure we would see some kind of pullback from that trend line before a break. In my opinion this signals that there are a lot of people caught on the wrong side of this market.
The ferocity of the first five days out of this yearly cycle low has me wondering if the megaphone pattern isn’t still in play and we’re about to see a test of the upper trend line area over the next 1-2 months.
If we take a look at the euro chart we can see that the daily euro cycle is only on day 12. That implies it still has another 8-13 days before finding its next daily cycle bottom. The dollar should have those same 8-13 days to rally before this daily cycle tops.
Originally I thought we might see a test of the 200 day moving average over the next 4-6 weeks. But the explosive nature of the first five days, and taking into account this daily cycle still has another 8-13 days to go before topping, we could see a test and break of the 200 day moving average over the next 1-2 weeks. I think we would then have at least one more daily cycle higher before the intermediate cycle tops. Two daily cycles of this kind of behavior could definitely send the dollar back up to test the upper megaphone trend line over the next 2 months.
I’m starting to get the feeling that this rally out of the yearly cycle low is going to be a lot more powerful then almost anyone is expecting, including me. In order to turn this back down it may require a fundamental change in the market such as an increase in QE. I don’t believe that is politically feasible at the moment unless the stock market really starts to tank in front of the Christmas holidays.
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