The regular premium website has been reactivated. Tonight’s report will be posted there in a few hours. I will have more details on how I’m going to proceed in tonight’s report.
First off a status report on the website.
I spent about 3 hours on a conference call last night with the developer and transfer agent. The hold up is the subscription files. The original software that runs the subscription plugin is no longer in business so it’s impossible to get a re-install or support for that plugin. We tried to figure out someway to automate the process of transferring all of the active subscription files into a new payment plugin but because of certain restrictions there just doesn’t appear to be any way to do this without losing some critical information along the way. So unfortunately this leaves me with an incredible mess of having to do this entirely by hand. That means I have to sort through 5000 files, figure out which ones are active and which ones are inactive. Figure out who is monthly, who is biannaul and who is annual. Then once I get all of that done we can migrate the active files into the new subscription system.
This going to be a tedious process that will probably take at least 2-3 weeks. In the meantime we are going to reactivate the site as is. Everything should still be running fine the only problem is the malware spam links on the subscription page.
During this process I’m going to have to assign a temporary password to everyone’s account so that I can get in and check the status of the account. At some point over the next 2-4 weeks you will get an email from me with your temporary password. So if one day you try to log in and can’t, check your email to see if you have been assigned your temporary password (don’t forget to check your spam filters).
Sometime this evening the site should go back live and I’m expecting to publish tonight’s report back on the premium site barring some unseen difficulty.
Now on to the morning report:
As of this morning gold is trying to bounce off the intermediate trend line. If the intermediate cycle is still advancing this should mark the bottom of the daily cycle decline.
We’re going to have to see if this trend line holds through the rest of the day and whether or not we get a swing tomorrow.
Now for the dollar:
It’s pretty clear today that the dollar has begun a new intermediate cycle.
That may or may not force an intermediate top in gold. The knee jerk reaction would be to assume that since the dollar is probably going to rally for a month or more that gold will automatically drop during this period. I’m not going to make that assumption just yet because gold can, and has rallied right along with the dollar from time to time, just like stocks have rallied along with the dollar. All a rising dollar means is that the euro or yen is being printed more aggressively at the moment. It has no bearing on inflation or deflation.
For now we need to see if the trend line holds today and then if gold forms a swing tomorrow despite the dollar rally.
I’m not sure what it was the market objected to during Yellen’s press conference but by the end of the day the S&P had bounced off the 1850 support and recovered about half of today’s decline. With options expiration on Friday I have to think this market probably isn’t quite ready to roll over into it’s daily cycle decline just yet.
That being said I have no desire to try and catch a few more points only to have them taken right back away when the DCL begins.
So for now I’m going to stay in cash in the stock portfolio until stocks drop down into their next DCL. Once that move becomes clear then we will try to spot the bottom and re-enter stock positions as close to the bottom of the DCL as we can.
Nothing happening today that we didn’t already expect. Since we didn’t get the reversal candle we now have to wait through Thursday, and probably Friday’s options expiration and see if gold can hang on and hold above the intermediate trend line.
If gold does break through that level then we will sell the rest of our positions into the next bounce and go to the sidelines for the next couple of months as the metals would likely become extremely choppy and volatile. Not the kind of market that either bulls or bears can make money in. I certainly would have no desire to try and trade the metals in that environment. If this comes to pass I would suggest folks migrate most of their capital to one of the other portfolios and give the metals a break until May or June.
On the other hand if gold completes a swing above the trend line, and a strong move back toward the recent highs ensues then I will look to add exposure to the metal portfolio for one more leg up in this intermediate cycle.
For now though there is nothing to do until gold forms a swing.
Finally we come to the dollar. This one is a puzzle. On one hand today’s rally did break the intermediate trend line. It’s late enough in the intermediate cycle that this could end up being a final ICL, and the trend line break would suggest that may be the case.
However that would also require us to count two short daily cycles in a row. The previous cycle bottomed on day 17 and this one on day 16. Two short cycles in a row would be very unusual. Usually a short cycle is followed by a stretched cycle.
So what I’m wondering is will the dollar roll over again quickly and give us one more short cycle with a final bottom around April 4 on the next employment report?
We’ll just have to see what transpires tomorrow and Friday before we can make a call on the dollar.