Commodities trade

I’m going to take profits on JO, DBA and DBC for the commodity portfolio in the morning. Sentiment has reached extremes and oil has begun the move down into an intermediate cycle low. This will drag DBC down and it may take DBA with it.

We will need to give oil a few days to finish the move into the cycle low and then we will look to re-enter once oil forms a swing. 

Comments are open.

35 thoughts on “Commodities trade

    1. Dennis

      Can anyone explain to me why UNG has lost 95% of it´s value the last 5 years. That couldn´t be because of the contango.

  1. James Mark II

    The Silver Lag is $1.10 right now. It should be trading at $22.20, just to stay “even” with gold. It usually leads, so the lag is that much greater. An after hours rocket shot will salve these wounds. lmao

  2. tennispro

    Gary , PM rally doesn’t feel too convincing . Gold breaking out but miners and especially silver lag . Do you thing we should hold off on adding the other half of PM position ? And what signals are you looking for to reenter stocks ? Thanx

    1. Gary

      The lag in miners and silver is a bit concerning. The dollar should still have another 5-6 days to fall so I’m guessing they will catch up later today or later this week.

  3. BOBBO

    Move in gold to breakout high is reaction to Ukraine, as gold shares haven’t broken out of their consolidation, and silver is lagging.Both need to confirm move in gold. Gold shares should be reacting violently on heavy volume with breakout of gold. Tech, and cycle analysis probably useless on price of gold as it is reacting to geo – political events.

    1. Gary

      I doubt it since the Ukraine thing is now old news. Gold was going to break out no matter waht because the dollar was going to breakdown.

  4. BOBBO

    Gary, Ukraine may be old news, but isn’t hasn’t been resolved yet. With this move in gold, I’d like to see GDX, and HUI break out of their consolidation today on strong volume.

  5. FiatFlatline

    Gary –
    Do you continue to see the risks you saw in the markets yesterday? Asked another way: What condition(s) will convince you the parabola is still intact?

  6. BOBBO

    I think the move in Gold is in response to the referendum vote on Sunday in Crimea on succeeding from Ukraine, and joining Russia. If this was because of the dollar, I think there would be a bigger move in the other metals, especially silver. I don’t know that I have ever seen gold break out and not have the gold shares confirm on the same day, with heavy volume. See how they end the day.

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