We knew the Fed was going to attempt to rescue the stock market ahead of the FOMC meeting. As of this morning it looks like a trend day is likely to develop and the Fed is going to succeed. I’m going to go back to half positions in the model portfolio that I will increase to full at the end of the day if the rally continues into the close.
25% position in QQQ entered at $89.66
15% position in SPY entered at $186.39
5% position in IWM entered at $118.81
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Gary any concerns about the miners?
The dollar is still in trouble. The supply side of the gold market is still damaged. this is still a new bull market in gold. I don’t think this intermediate cycle will top until gold at least reaches $1460 (a 38% Fib retracement)
So you think 1460 gold is posible in the next two to three weeks??
Gary so yo think we are back on track for Nasdaq 5000?
There’s no way to tell yet. I do think the Fed is going to abort this correction though.
Man are the miners a totally diffeent beast in 2014 than the past few years!
Does the model portfolio still have any precious metal positions?
I haven’t touched the metal positions. The metal portfolio is still at full strength.
SPY already showing on top of SOS list…looks like a manufactured rally to get suckers in. I would be careful.
Do not confuse an oversold bounce that stopped right before the 10dma with a trend reversal.
Correct, and the reason I only took half positions. This rally needs to finish the day at the highs for me to add to it and I would prefer to see the SoS number disappear also.
GDX on the other hand has a BoW number that continues to grow as the day progresses.
Can i get a link to SOS and BOW charts?
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mfgppl-moneyflow.html?mod=topnav_2_3000
thank you Gary
Do you think that the sharp plinge in POG was manipulation?
2B2 can certainly provide us with new evidence it is
I think to some extent it’s a knee jerk reaction to the stock market. If the Fed succeeds in pumping stocks back up today then it could continue throughout the week. As long as gold doesn’t drop back below $1355 I’m not going to get too worried. It would be just a normal retest of the breakout.
PM portfolio back to start now. maybe better to sell at each rally. It seems you can buy back at the same price or cheaper some days later
I have a feeling that this move north in equities is just a head-fake, and going long today will merely result in getting chopped up and disappointed.
I think you are assuming these are freely traded markets. I’m under no such delusion. The Fed wants the market up as they go into the FOMC statement. The only question is whether or not the downward pressure is enough to overwhelm the Fed manipulation. I don’t think anyone can say for certain if we’ve reached that stage yet.
Gary, can you explain how a big BoW number can result in prices going down? One should expect it was driving prices up?
A portfolio change has been posted.