Mar. 17 portfolio change

We knew the Fed was going to attempt to rescue the stock market ahead of the FOMC meeting. As of this morning it looks like a trend day is likely to develop and the Fed is going to succeed. I’m going to go back to half positions in the model portfolio that I will increase to full at the end of the day if the rally continues into the close.

25% position in QQQ entered at $89.66
15% position in SPY entered at $186.39
5% position in IWM entered at $118.81

22 thoughts on “Mar. 17 portfolio change

    1. Gary

      The dollar is still in trouble. The supply side of the gold market is still damaged. this is still a new bull market in gold. I don’t think this intermediate cycle will top until gold at least reaches $1460 (a 38% Fib retracement)

  1. Aaron

    SPY already showing on top of SOS list…looks like a manufactured rally to get suckers in. I would be careful.
    Do not confuse an oversold bounce that stopped right before the 10dma with a trend reversal.

    1. Gary

      Correct, and the reason I only took half positions. This rally needs to finish the day at the highs for me to add to it and I would prefer to see the SoS number disappear also.

    1. Gary

      I think to some extent it’s a knee jerk reaction to the stock market. If the Fed succeeds in pumping stocks back up today then it could continue throughout the week. As long as gold doesn’t drop back below $1355 I’m not going to get too worried. It would be just a normal retest of the breakout.

  2. Nixim

    PM portfolio back to start now. maybe better to sell at each rally. It seems you can buy back at the same price or cheaper some days later

  3. jaynews

    I have a feeling that this move north in equities is just a head-fake, and going long today will merely result in getting chopped up and disappointed.

    1. Gary

      I think you are assuming these are freely traded markets. I’m under no such delusion. The Fed wants the market up as they go into the FOMC statement. The only question is whether or not the downward pressure is enough to overwhelm the Fed manipulation. I don’t think anyone can say for certain if we’ve reached that stage yet.

  4. Nixim

    Gary, can you explain how a big BoW number can result in prices going down? One should expect it was driving prices up?

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