Things are going to happen fast this afternoon right after the FOMC statement is released so I’m going to go over a couple of strategies now so everyone can decide how they want to play this and be prepared.
First off stocks:
Here is how I’m going to play it with the stock portfolio. If the market can rally back to 1880 before the statement at 2:00 I will go ahead a sell our stock positions at that point. If not then I will wait till after the release as I think stocks will use the statement as an excuse to test the all time highs if they haven’t done so earlier in the day.
For those willing to gamble a bit you might hold till the end of the day and see if stocks rally and break out to new highs and maybe even try to reach 1900 before this daily cycle tops.
As of this morning gold has broken the daily cycle trend line just like we needed it to do to confirm a DCL in progress. All the buyers at the 1350 support yesterday woke up to their stops being run. This also had to happen.
Now for those of you that are going to try and pick a bottom you have to do so at some point that has a logical reason for others in the market to do so also. Just picking a random number is unlikely that anyone else is going to back you up and you will almost certainly suffer a draw down and in the volatile market that’s going to exist after the FOMC statement that draw down could be big.
The first logical place to make an attempt is at the 38.2% retracement which comes in at roughly $1333 today. At that point you will likely have a bunch of hedge funds buying right along with you and the odds are better that the decline will stop there.
If that level doesn’t bring in enough buyers to stop the selling then the next place to take a shot is at the intermediate trend line (roughly $1318). The nice thing about this level is if the intermediate rally is still intact then the DCL will hit a brick wall at that level and up gold will go. If it does go through there you don’t need to stop out immediately because the market will almost certainly bounce tomorrow and give you a chance to exit, probably at a small profit or at least break even.
For those of you not brave enough to try and pick a bottom in a volatile DCL environment, you should wait till 10-15 minutes before the close and see if gold has exhausted the selling and printed a reversal candle. If it has buy your positions right before the close.
For those even more risk averse wait for gold to form a swing before you buy.
I’m going to wait for a swing in the metals portfolio unless we get a reversal candle that ends the day positive.