Surprises in bull markets come on the upside… The overnight bear raids have failed and I see a stealth daily cycle low. Now that gold’s second intermediate cycle has started we’ll see short sellers buy stop limits trigger as sideline longs and traders panic buy themselves back onto the g-trains next move higher.
Daily cycle lows never form as a sideways consolidation that doesn’t even close below the 10 DMA. Cycle lows always drop below the cycle trend line. In order for a cycle low to be complete it has to reset sentiment. In order to do that it has to break below the cycle trend line and force technical traders to sell.
This is how a first daily cycle sucks traders in at the top and then hands them either a loss or a sharp drawdown as the market moves back down into the daily cycle bottom. This is the point where traders begin to convince themselves that this time is different. That there will not be a daily cycle low this time. I can tell you from 15 years of experience it’s never different this time.
Sometime in the next 5-10 days GLD will move back down to retest the gap on June 19, or possibly even fill it. That’s the point where one can reenter positions, maybe even with a little bit of leverage.
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