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If this is in fact the C-Wave then the $USD MUST rollover, break the DC trendline from the early May bottom (1YCL?) And form an left translated intermediate cycle. Given how early both gold and the dollar is and how late oil and other commodities are in consolidating their first rip higher it’s prudent to be out of the market, awaiting a clue or two. More than likely the major trends are going to be more powerful and we’ll chop and churn over the rest of the summer testing and retesting the trading ranges until additional information about the economy becomes known. Equities as represented by the S&P 500 are getting ready to put in a parabolic parabola top as excitement leads to euforia and we run out of buyers about the same time oil spikes to $150 killing what’s left of the real economy and this sham of an economic recovery forcing the Federal Reserve to panic and untaper the taper and accepting a STAGFLATION economy rather than a DEFLATIONARY one which wipes out the Top 1% an makes it harder for government to service their debts. Finally, if this turns out to be a C-Wave and not a continuation of the B-Wave as gold fails to make a higher high it’s better to chase the last 80% of gains in the equity markets or during the last 20% of the cyclical bull market in conventional assets. Have a good weekend and see you in October.
I would think this is an A-wave rather than a C-wave.
An A wave down as it relates to DYX/USD or to Gold?
An A-wave is an advancing wave that comes after a final D-wave decline. Usually it’s pretty aggressive and tests the all time highs. But the manufactured bear market last year has probably screwed up the normal rhythm of the gold market.
Any thoughts on JNUG pulling back to 26 next week and then progressing to 63 mid August?
What would gold need to be trading at for JNUG to be at 63? Not sure how to determine this?
Any thoughts appreciated.
Thank you.
Cycles aren’t very good for marking targets. I just buy miners when I think gold has formed a final cycle low. It doesn’t really matter to me where they happen to be at the time.
As an Elliot wave counter, I have this as a truncated wave 5. GDX was trying to consolidate above the $HUI breakout line, failed to hold it, thus truncating the wave 5. It “should” have had another 60-80 cents higher to go. There was also resistance on the daily BBs for both GDX and GDXJ at their highs yesterday. It’s the obvious place for a reversal.
One thing that does concern me here is that the previous two times gold has made a thrust up, it moved in concert with HUI, and they topped at the same time. Based on this historical precedent, gold “should” have been higher, testing the upper trendline at the same time. My gut feeling is that gold’s last thrust was heavily suppressed, and we are headed towards a correction. If HUI can close above the trendline by EOD, I’ll reconsider.
This market has a lot of strength, no worry, hold tight.
Hi Gary, do you think that gold can get a higher price than 1349 usd /ounce before it has a real correction in this month ?
Hard to say at the moment. There are conflicting signals, but I think the odds slightly favor one more push to 1360 ish before a mild correction.
Thanks you Gary