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Do you think it will dip below the half cycle low?
Sorry, ignore my question.
Gary,
Are you still playing oil here? I would love to hear your thoughts on it.
We gave it another shot, but got stopped out at break even. For a tweezer bottom and strong follow through day, which also broke the cycle down trend line (powerful bottoming pattern) to get reversed immediately I think it’s pretty clear at this point that Washington is going to keep oil suppressed ahead of the elections. So I won’t trade oil until after that.
Gary, the market put in a Hindenberg Omen yesterday. These are a combination of technical data points, that tend to mark market peaks. The idea however is that you need a confirming H.O, meaning another one within the next 30 days to validate it. Then if you get a second H.O in the required time frame, you are officially on “crash watch” and that lasts for about 4 months. I am looking for 20% haircut in the next 4 months.
I think it’s more likely that the market forms a megaphone topping pattern over the next 4-6 months.
But like you said we need confirmation, and multiple omens, not just two, are much more reliable.
Gary:
Can you comment on Friday’s huge volume and huge BOW?
Options expiration explains the volume. I didn’t see any BoW numbers during the day so I assume it was another one of those fake numbers that are manufactured after the close. Some one can correct me if I’m wrong as I wasn’t able to monitor the numbers during the last two hours.
Friday was ex-dividend for SPY so that is the reason for huge volume and BoW.
Also that little thing, what was it? Oh.. BABA ipo.