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As I look at a multi-year weekly chart of crude oil, I see a 3-year cycle but it is bottoming right about NOW. I don’t know what you’re calling the “tops” and “troughs” of this 3-year cycle, but I see a solid bottom in late 2008-early 2009, then a bottom a little early in October of 2011, and another 3-years from that bottom brings us to October 2014 and if oil isn’t putting in a major cycle bottom right here, right now, it’s doing an awfully-good impersonation of one. What am I missing here? Seriously. Thanks.
The last 3 year cycle low in the CRB occurred in the summer of 2012. The next one is due in the summer or fall of 2015.