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First post!
Or did we just have a two-year bubble phase that began in late-2012?
Probably not. A typical bubble phase will do at least 100% to 200% and create a clear parabolic structure. It will also inspire the public to flood into the market.
$RUT has been basing for the last year and appears poised to breakout, which will help fuel the start of the bubble phase. Take a look at the monthly chart:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$RUT&p=M&yr=15&mn=4&dy=0&id=p61054397911&a=381271370&r=1419028579839&cmd=print
Far from forming any sort of “base”, the $RUT is clearly making a megaphone top, soon to conclude prior to the usual massive crash out of such tops. As for the notion that “Joe Sixpack” aka “The Public” is going to provide the fuel for this “bubble phase” I would only note that the aforementioned groupe is essentially broke and living paycheque-to-paycheque. The Smart Money has been handing out “The Bag” for the past nine months and now even the spam e-mail stock touts are shilling big-name stocks such as Kohls, Home Depot, Nuance, and Salesforce.com instead of the usual sub-penny junk. It’s Endgame Time, people. The oil price collapse was the first domino that’s going to bring it all down. Mark this post!
I marked posts like that for the last 5 years. Then I turned off SOH and got on board with the bull. Now I make a lot of money at every DCL. They are like clockwork. Easiest trade in the world. You just have to trust and buy the swing in the band. And set a tight stop. And carry a giant sack to the bank every few weeks. Thank you, Gary.
One day your “crash around the corner” crowd will be right, for sure. Enjoy the limelight when it finally happens. Try to keep some of your profits; bears usually suck at that. My stops will protect me, and the bull is filling my account between now and then. Fake money earned in a fake bull spends just as good as real money. Until the gubmint seizes it all, which is coming one day. Maybe soon.
Scuse me, i didn’t understand… Are you saying if this is the beginning of the bubble phase, this will last 8 to 15 months from now???…. But the nasdaq is at 4850, to reach 5100 is less than 6%…. could be there in 10 days…. something is beyond me…
Felix.
If this does turn into a bubble phase then the Nasdaq could go way beyond 5100. This would track with Armstrong’s prediction of 23000 Dow.
Just starting the Bubble Phase??????? ….. what do you call the past 3 or 4 years fueled by a multi-trillion expansion of the FED’s balance sheet with junk assets.
It is the build up to the bubble phase. The market has gone up long enough and far enough that retail traders are now starting to take notice and the idea has been planted that the Fed is omnipotent and the market can never fall. That’s what I think will drive the final vertical parabolic move. Then when the parabola collapses the next recession/depression will begin.
p.s. the US$ is forming a megaphone top of its own, soon to conclude, perhaps with one last top-tick of 90 to get every last DollarDummy on the long side of boat so it will capsize nicely.
Not yet, Count. I agree with your general forecast but it will take time to come to fruition. I’m with Gary’s analysis.
Hmmm, usualy at the end of the secular bull there is parabolic move and now we are not there, we are still in a secular bear i guess?
Oh no you did not just say that Pangro.