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Don’t get me wrong a small amount of capital in the commodity sector is perfectly acceptable. If you do pick a bottom or are very good at trading range bound markets there is money to be made.
I’m just saying that the easy money is in stocks. They have the protection of the Fed, and are likely entering their final bubble phase. These can last from 8 months to a year and a half. This one started at the Oct. bottom so it’s unlikely to top for a while yet. During a bubble phase a lot of money can be made very fast with little risk. Once the bubble phase reaches 6-8 months, or you start hearing the average person bragging about his stock market winnings at the gas station and restaurants then start trailing a stop.
Gary – If I recall correctly, sometime in 2013 you started to make the case that the easy money was to be made in the stock market. And in 2014 you have made the case even stronger with many of your reports highlighting where one’s best opportunities lie. The last two calls on the stock market’s ICL followed up with the DCL have been good entry points as you’ve pointed out. Thanks for all the good work you do and sharing it with us.
As recent as July 2014 (check archives) Gary was calling for top in stocks/bottom in commodities by end of 2014. First decline to SPX 1600s, then more QE but mostly effect seen in commodities.
Dear me, you change your tune pretty quickly. Seem to forget you were one of those self same knife catchers not so long ago. Humility. Please.
I’ve done a very good job of spotting bottoms and tops in the metals over the last 2 years. Not so good in oil. But the trends don’t last long enough to make any real money. The real money is being made in the stock market and it looks to me like we’re entering the period where a lot of money can be made very quickly.
Do you still think the tech etfs are a better option than trying individual stocks Gary?
I usually just trade ETF’s.
Gary I concur with your US Indice’s theory but don’t you think the metals AND oil are a shorter inverse trend of the same nature?
I’m curious why you think this could go on another year or longer. When I look at the chart for SPX it seems that we have been in a parabolic uptrend for quite a awhile. Why pick the October low as the “start” of the bubble phase? Maybe it would help if you gave us an example of what you think a blow-off top is supposed to look like.
Here are a few examples of what bubbles look like.
Friday mid day to close CONFIRMS the CONTINUED uptrend FOR ME since going to cash on my longs on 12/1.
For the record:
Friday: Bought JBSS (bulletproof) as a hedge (25%)
Monday: Looking to buy either/both oil inverse ETF via limit (opportunity knocking with downtrend still INTACT) and BRKB (fantastic long play) to replace my high yield junk bond ETF (bought her premature) at open (25%)
Holding: 25% Gold ETF (trend NOW turning bearish AGAIN) and 24% oil inverse ETF (trend remains THE same)
Monsieur Savage, I believe even you have been guilty of trying to pick the top in a monster trending market, many times over the years – the $USD.
Yes I have. I was expecting a more sustained move down into a three year cycle low this past year and it didn’t come.
People love to point out that Gary’s not perfect. Let’s all say it together and get it out of our systems” “Gary’s not perfect, neener neener neener!”. Ah. Feel better? Me too.
The point of the post is still valid, and (judging from some commenters here) still needs to be said. Resist the gamble on tops and bottoms in hard markets. Make your peace with letting most of your money ride the wave in the easy market,. Even though you hate it. Let profit tell you where to trade. Seem obvious? Then you haven’t been doing this very long. Seem like Gary himself sometimes tries to call the end of a bear os start of a bull? Sure. He never said not to: with a little captical. He only said “don’t be ashamed to put the bulk of your capital where the easy returns are”. It’s good advice. Take it.
Sold 25% SJB and out half into JBSS long hedge…….other half still cash on an inverse oil ETF limit order which never got due to oil drop helping my ETF. Metals tanking helping my inverse gold ETF.