14 thoughts on “CHARTS OF THE DAY”

  2. Carl Vanhaes

    Great catch so far Gary. DJ30 and SPX just a few points away, and I noticed the relative strength of the Nasdaq still far from its Sept high…let’s see how they go. I am long…

  3. CountOfMeltedCrisco

    They’ll let it close on the low here Friday, let everyone have a nice long weekend of imagining all their Worst Fears coming true, manufacture one Final Flush Monday morning, and then “game on” for the rest of the last full week before Christmas next week. January is going to be a debacle, just as was 1973 and 1981 at the start of those two-year Nightmare Bears.

  4. Roy

    What are you thinking there, Count? A short or left-translated DC, peaking after Christmas, followed by a bad January (presumably a failed DC in Jan)? I dunno. After that monster rally out of the ICL, what makes you think the market is about to go soft?

    I am thinking we’ll make our cycle low early next week… hopefulyl we’ll open weak on Monday to allow me to start scaling in, finishing positions when we finish a swing. Although with my luck, we’ll open way up on Monday. It will be tempting to buy that strength, too, but if that happens then I think the smart (if probably expensive) thing to do is wait till EOD to buy. Just to make sure it is going to stick. One way or the other, I will be surprised if we don’t get a nice buying opportunity next week. And I will be surprised if this IC rolls over quickly.

  5. M.D.Cov

    What’s wrong with this picture……. EVERYONE here is bullish and they want to buy on this measly 2.7% dip??? It ain’t even over……. Cash is king or other “safe haven” trendy investment vehicles of interests.

    FWIW — M.D.Cov

  6. Roy

    S&P is down almost 4% from it’s peak as I do the math. I’d like to see it fall a bit more, which is why I am hoping for weakness on Monday pre-market and a lower open. If we get that, then yes, I think that is a great place at least for starter positions. You don’t? The S&P right now is sitting on the 50 DMA, which is a logical place to bounce, and this environment is crazy bullish. We’re late in the DC. 5 day RSI is where it should be at a DCL. Sentiment may not have fully reset, but like everything else, it is getting pretty close. And “less than full resets” are quite possible in this environment. Yeah, I’m pretty bullish.

    This DC decline may very well not be quite over. I hope we have another 3% washout day to lower my entry. But looking at the big picture, why would you not be bullish? Why would you not be warming up your trigger finger for a good long entry here? And why would a swing next week not be a very good entry?

    Too late to buy gold. Too late to short oil. Just about right to get back on the S&P Bull Train to Freemoneyville. The train will derail at some point. I’m betting “not this DC”.

  7. M.D.Cov

    Roy this is what I love about “Wall Street……. for EVERY winner there’s a loser just like poker.

    What SEEMS obvious MORE times than not usually MOST of the time leads one astray, just like here on this message topic post EVERYONE is SO complacent.

    Did you know the US Dollar TODAY is now BELOW her technical breakout cusp? Bearish.

    Did you know GLD AND SLV is ABOVE her 50 DMA respectively? Too late to buy them? NOT……. it’s called “consolidation”.

    ALL US Indices closed at their intraday LOWS!

    FTR: Been bearish on equities and oil from Dec 1st and vice versa on metals INCLUDING Palladium. NOW bearish on the US Dollar.

    Flash alert: Unusually HIGH “dead cat bounce” for the retail investors “banking on that OBVIOUS 50 DMA” savior bounce just like yesterday AT BEST.

    I’m looking at a CURRENT 5% correction (WAITING for a “confirmation” signal to go long in equities) OR an inevitable 33% bear market……. don’t want to be a “hero”. Got a “swap and derivatives” nightmare brewing across the board.

    But what do I know……. FWIW — M.D.Cov

    1. Roy

      No idea what you know. Probably a lot more than me. All I knew was to buy calls last time we made a swing in the band for an ICL. Worked out pretty good for me. And I know that we are in the band for DCL now and the market is acting like it is giving us one. I’ll buy some more calls, maybe on a nice intraday reversal (here’s hoping we open way below the 50 DMA on Monday and get one of those by mid-morning) or certainly on the next swing. I see no reason that won’t work out well for me, too. I’ll sell those calls after we’ve made 6% – 8% on the way up to the next DC peak and miss the last few % of the rally, just like I did this time. I’ll miss the move to the cycle low, too. And when that next cycle low comes, I’ll rinse and repeat. Been doing it for a while now. It will stop working one day, and when that day comes, I’ll honor my stop which will be set at the intraday low made just before the swing day. Then I’ll sit out the rest of that cycle to see what happens, and whether it is time to jump the S&P and NASDAQ ship and head over to the metals or something.

      I also know one other thing. The metals have burned the hell out of everyone who touched them for the last few years. My burns are all healed now, but the memory of them keeps me far away from gold and silver until they have proven that they are free of manipulation and out of the bear’s grasp. One nice rally does not do that for me. A couple of higher-low DCs and a successful re-test of the 50 from above may do it.

  8. Fred

    Hi, i think the stock markets aren’t acting right anymore. Instead of a steady advance encountering low volume reactions on its path, we are now facing a new picture: after a heavy reaction where strong supply came in, the market reversed quickly and gave a perpendicular surge based upon absolutely nothing (no consolidation phase at the low levels whereas there was a great deal of supply).

    This surge looks artificial and engineered to suck in remaining bulls in the process and scare premature shorts out of the market. The upwave despite its quick pace and great distance personifies weakness and looks like hypodermics injected to revive a dying market. We are on the verge of a clear-cut break if the market reveals itself unable to absorb the supply coming in from the last high area.

    1. gary Post author

      I would say definitely artificial. The Fed has to keep the market inflated or we go down into a depression. The risk IMO isn’t to the downside, it’s that they make the mistake and allow the stock market to turn into a parabolic bubble that when it pops there will be nothing they can do to save it.

  9. Sooze

    Gary,

    If the conventional market decline is because of the price of oil, then if oil continues to go lower won’t stocks follow suit, regardless of where we are in the cycle?

    Thanks.

    1. gary Post author

      Stocks went up just fine for months with oil dropping. This isn’t because of oil. This is just a normal profit taking event to reset sentiment and catch our breadth before the next leg up. As long as we keep getting these normal corrections we don’t really have to worry. It’s when the market starts to go straight up that we need to head towards the exit.

      I’m thinking that may occur over the next 2 months.

  10. Jay

    Equities were a great “buy and hold” vehicle for the past 5 and three quarter years, but there are now just a trading vehicle and nothing else. 🙂 Anyone hiding out in dividend paying stocks (because bond yields are so low) will be in for a rude awakening 🙂

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