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Sounds good Gary……. Got out of DUST and licked my wounds and jumped into the best of breed chart-wise via RIC, IAG, HMY and IAG.
Still looking for 24-26 on GDX. Been a good run so far but I think the market is not going to give much pullback. It is the most hated sector for a long time. Gary’s intermediate bottom will be completely ignored by the Gold stocks as the GDX Gold Ratio realigns to reality and shares discount much higher Gold prices.
Sorry meant GFI too.
Russian going t o dump ALL $USD
The last time the Dollar Index was aprox. 92 the Gold price was only $650 – whats up with $1,200? …. is the Dollar loosing intrinsic value to Gold over the last few years or is Gold going back to $650?.
Its just a deflationary event. Gold is great with hyper inflation. Gold is also good in a deflationary depression. There are no reasons not to own gold. With more and more people taking physical possession, especially the Chinese, the price of gold is higher comparatively speaking with regard to your question. Physical possession is the only factor that can change the price of gold unless its gold futures where paper contracts can change them.
When gold was moving higher in 2009-2011 the move from 700 to 1200 was very fast. 1200 area is vital for gold to hold. Otherwise, with regard to your question, we will be back there quickly.
Back to $650???
I’m just using the historic USD Index price relationship …. my guess is if it got to $650 there wouldn’t be enough real metal to go around.
It could go to 650 and bounce back to 1000 after that. I’ll say this: If stocks sustain their upward trend (not much reason to believe they won’t) and the dollar remains strong then gold is very likely going to break down again. I think Gary probably won’t refute this.
Will today’s move in gold make you rethink staying out of the markets until February?
As the $USD rises the $SPX declines and vice versa. I am not sure what is Gary’s horizon for USD consolidation period? March/April??
It just boils down to my nervousness that the bullion banks may cap price at any time and prematurely abort the rally. If gold is allowed to trade freely then it should rally until the dollar reaches the intermediate bottom back at the consolidation zone. That could potentially reach the 200 week EMA (1340). I just don’t trust the banksters to let it trade freely.
So rather than risk more whipsaw I’m going to wait until I see gold make a higher intermediate high. Something it hasn’t done in almost 3 years. Once that happens it would signal a character change and I will buy aggressively at the next intermediate bottom ( best guess maybe around 1250 if this rally can reach 1350).
Look at the chart of GDXJ since Christmas and tell me that is a “whipsaw”. I’m glad I loaded up as tax loss selling ended. Still trailing a fairly generous stop, looks like it has more room to run once we get past the FOMC shenanigans.
Let’s call a spade a spade. Your record with gold/miners is pretty good, but you totally missed this latest move.
On the contrary the chart of GDXJ has been a whipsawing nightmare, and even broke to new lows. This simply boils down to me not trusting the bullion banks to let this trade naturally. I want to see a change in character. By that I mean a higher intermediate high, something that hasn’t happened in almost 3 years. Once that occurs then I will buy the next ICL aggressively.