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Presumably the final move to 5100 would correspond with the CRB making it’s final 3 year cycle low (after a short term bounce) and maybe gold it’s final 8 year cycle low (a little bit ahead of schedule).
Gary,
I enjoy reading your thoughts and charts daily and appreciate you taking the time to share them with those of us who have little knowledge when it comes to things like cycles, or waves, etc.
Personally, I am not convinced by the spike in gold in recent weeks. I just keep expecting to see gold driven down to 1050 or therabouts again. I don’t think that the big boys, who can move markets, have finished with the price of gold yet.
I am becoming more and more convinced that QE4 is coming in the US, along with accompanying QE in the UK and in Europe… and probably in China in some form, and am trying to focus on what assets will spike on any such news.
I have my doubts that gold is completely done with the bear market also. I think both gold and stocks are just going through counter trend moves right now and once they complete then the longer term cyclical forces will return and stocks will reach 5100 and gold 1050. Then maybe we finally get a big secular trend change and everything reverses for several years.
Gary,
So after the nasdaq gets to 5100, I assume we get a big crash? Or does QE4 come in shortly after and we go up even further? I would think if the US and EU did QE at the same time, we would take a second out on our houses and put it in the market?
I am just trying to get a vision of how all the reindeer gaimes will play out.
Thank you very much for all you do!
Not sure about a crash or not but I do think we will get a final top sometime this year.
Interesting blog post from Martin Armstrong on December 1st, 2014.
‘For now, brace yourself. It looks like a lot of fun and games for 2015 on the horizon. Now that the Swiss central bank CAN sell its gold reserves, look out. When you ask a question, you better know what the answer will be or you end up with the consequences. Swiss sales of gold are now quite possible. As governments need money desperately and it is resolved that we are headed into electronic money, gold will become a barbaric relic of the past to financially strapped central banks in Europe.
If the Swiss sell due to massive losses in the Euro, they may set off a competition in official sales. France will join – just watch. Socialists always sell tangible assets. If we see a pop in gold, it will be a manipulation to get the bulls revved up to sell to them one more time – thank you very much.’
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/12/01/gold-one-more-pop-or-collapse/
Well, apparently the Swiss have had massive losses in Euros this week.
Pump and dump?
If the London Metals Exchange is running short of gold, what can prevent China from arbitrarily determining that gold should be $2500 now, you’re welcomed to arbitrage it. Bring in real gold from London and China will happily sell it to you at $2500. BUT BUT BUT, if there is hardly any gold in the west, how can that be arbitraged?
Most have been wrong calling gold $900 and will be caught short covering real soon. Gold is a currency .