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From the previous post, by “John”
“I know of many people who called the bottom in oil including myself.”
I checked the comments. No record of you calling the bottom in oil anywhere. You did post a sell signal for copper on Apr. 17th oops!
Nice Gary, you catched the 5100 for NASDAQ Comp 🙂 what if we get a lower top 30days after the 5100 top, a Swedish analyst says that is a rule for predicting a change of a trend? So I am following the NASD 100/Comp closely.
Maybe that is a sign that we finaly has come to an end for this bull market in stox, excluding resource stox of course? A trader friend told me that the bond market is about to roll over and after that it’s time for the common stock market to roll over. The same friend also told me that the FED/TPTB is happy with the participation rate for average Joe’s in the market and they are ready to get fleeced. Maybe end of May is the time when FED/TPTB takes away the “candy bowl” (QE) for equities.
Goldbug or not, I am not the one with a precious metals filled background on my website, you are Gary 😛
I have my doubts we will get a sustained move above 5132 until stocks sell off into a 7 year cycle low first. That would force QE4 and that should trigger the final bubble phase in biotech. I may be wrong if the Fed can prevent the 7 YCL, but that’s where I think the natural market would go.
Of course we all know these haven’t been free markets since the SEC banned short selling in financials back in 2008.
Beating up against pretty solid resistance and not breaking through… late in a pretty indecisive DC… late in the IC as well… market is looking kind of rounded, and got a little H&S going on over the last couple weeks if you squint just right (which you always have to when charting anyway)… probably gonna close below the 50 DMA today … several big rallies lately have generated no follow-through and have been sold back within a day or two… got the employment numbers Friday which, while complete BS, sometimes serve as a turning point anyhow…
I am thinking we get our move down into a cycle low pretty quick here. DC or IC? Time will tell… Time to put the finger on the trigger and prepare your mind to pull just as everyone else is running away with their hair on fire.
Today’s oil inventory numbers triggered a “sell the news” event. Looks like XLE (yesterday) led /CL (today).
SPX 2040 is very close.
I’ve never figured out how to use that $BP… stuff for real time trading. Looking at $BPENER, while most tops have been pointed and thus useful, last year one top lasted 3 months, May June July, before it turned over, and during that time OIH and XLE kept rising. So if this current top is a pointed top (i.e. sharp up then sharp down), then it’s somewhat useful I guess. But until then, looking at the daily OIH/XLE charts, I’m hoping for a pullback to make a higher low (after this higher high), and then take a modest trading position.
Any thoughts on natural gas? I didn’t realize energy sector bullish percent levels were that high, yikes.
I’m still long from the beginning of last week with some nice gains. Looks like a bull flag on the daily chart, setting up the next leg up to $3+.
I’ll try my best to protect profits / avoid getting whipsawed through the inventory report tomorrow.
I think Nat gas is just getting started in a new intermediate degree rally.
Thoughts on the exploding govt yields? What’s triggering that? Not improving Econ definitely.
I’m not really a bond guy. But I do think the 30 year bull market is coming to an end.
Gary, You said Crude likely to top + turn back down heading for $35. Are you going to short this move and using what asset is best for this move down
Probably not. I’m not very good at selling short.
The yield jump has been the biggest news for the past week or so but very much under-reported. I don’t want to spend half hour and type, but in summary, it’s not only the US, it’s a global bond selloff, started from Bund, due to both technical (strong uptrend trend taking a break) and fundamental (economy and inflation expectation picking up). For the US, the Fed seems determined to raise rate, which is an additional upward force to the yield. The Euro zone bond selloff pushes the Euro high and the dollar low, giving the fed another reason to hike.