29 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY

    1. gary Post author

      I’m saying if it goes up I’m prepared to jump on board even though I dislike the idea.

  1. Stefan

    Yes there is a long term upsloaping trendline from the beginning of the century. That trendline indicates that 2120 is the limit. However there is another trendline showing that we could double the trading range to the upside, a final blow off top?

    Armstrongs singularity chart show us that the stock market is coming to an end 2020, but I think it will turn around much sooner.

  2. Stefan

    Long term cycles tells us we are correct in time but not in price, we need a higher top before the trend changes direction,

  3. Bob UK

    That’s a substantial change of heart Gary. I admire you for having the guts to say it as others would simply carry on regardless in one way of thinking.

    Nevertheless, it is a huge change to now go long.

    1. gary Post author

      I got long last night for a short term trade. 5-7 days as the dollar works down into an ICL.

      1. Ken

        Gold was not strong last night . What prompted you to go long. Given that you expect gold to fail, isn’t going long now a risky move?

  4. Kevin

    So we should continue to expect oil to head up until that dollar ICL in 5-7 days? Still looking for $65-ish top or just a dollar low? Thanks.

    1. gary Post author

      I like nat gas better. It’s still early in a new intermediate cycle while oil is very late in the cycle. If you didn’t get in a month and a half ago you already missed that boat.

  5. Michele B

    I think you are right Gary. Brave of you to make the call. Although like you i have been skeptical of this pervasive trend, we have to admit that the trend is up until we get a few negative monthly candles and that’s not going to happen anytime soon. We need some serious increases in interest rates to get this trend to change. There is a lot of cash around that is seeking a home and there’s nothing better than equities in sight. Plus valuations while being high are not crazy. We might get the usual 3-5% corrections along the way though.

    1. victor

      A week ago I listened interview with a well known builder here in Toronto. He said the company never been so busy as last and this year. He runs several projects and all homes been sold on still empty land. When asked where the money coming from? – he said almost 100% oversees. Cheapest 3 bdr. detach on 40 X 110 feet lot cost 750,000$ and that 30min drive to Toronto…. Diversification in a process….
      It’s just an observation …

  6. Roland Leung

    The market does not seem strong to me at all. QQQ can’t even rise above 109 now.

    1. Roy McIntyre

      You may be right, Ted. And Gary. Tops are round, and I am still thinking this is a round top. And I am still not seeing the buying eagerness that marks a break-out. But then, we haven’t broken out yet, have we? And we haven’t broken down into a clear move to a CL yet either, have we? So I guess we’re in no man’s land until something happens.

      Gary, no fear on your part that a break through 2120 would be “the smart money dumping shares on the little guy right before the big correction”? There has not been a real profit taking event in a while…

      1. gary Post author

        That’s what the stop right below 2120 is for. To protect in case of a fakeout.

  7. Bill in Tokyo

    I have no idea where QQQ goes next…

    … but UUP is making a very divergent lower low today, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a drop in GLD after today’s pop

    TLT is getting ready for a setup as well, looks like

    And I don’t know why OIH isn’t going into the hole like XLE is … but XLE is coming along nicely so am waiting for that

    1. Bill in Tokyo

      If I owned GDX or GDXJ here, I’d be selling. This whole 2-mo long arm on the daily charts is just slowly drifting up, almost like a bear flag – no impulse in it at all – and so I think the next move is off the cliff, perhaps just to retest the March lows.

      1. Bob UK

        I am no expert but I not convinced by this move in gold and silver. Smacks to me of sucking in people before, ahem, a big smackdown.

        As for the conventional markets…. Nah, I am even less convinced by them. There is no energy to go higher at the moment IMPO. Everything is looking exhausted. Feels exhausted.

        1. Bill in Tokyo

          Agree, exhausted.

          Just too much neg divergence on the weekly SPY/QQQ charts. Also, QE is over for the US, so where does the fuel come from? Seems like “sell in May” is more likely. Still, price movement trumps all, so will wait and see. Right now it’s a dead trade.

          1. Bob UK

            I think there will be a buying opportunity soon but I think it will come after we have had the correction that Gary has been forecasting for some time.

            I think the ‘sell in may and go away’ is wrong and will be proved wrong here again. I just don’t see things going much higher before we have a correction – as I said, everything looks too exhausted.

            Gold and silvet, to me, are always driven by the dollar and the dollar moves now on geo-political events more than anything – the Ukraine, Saudis going into Yemen, etc. I think the Saudis will go into Yemen soon – fools – and what affect that will have on oil and the USD I am uncertain. I suspect that the USD will rally and, as a result, metals will drop.

        2. Roy McIntyre

          Me neither. Not convinced by the SNP. But I keep waiting for the breakdown and it hasn’t come yet. Maybe tomorrow. But if tomorrow brings a break up above 2120… what? Buy like Gary says? I dunno. I’ll be tempted to, but also tempted to regard any such move as a false breakout late in an IC. Here’s hoping that’s a decision I don’t have to make. I’d much rather have a clear cycle low to buy. Those are easy decisions.

  8. Stefan

    A low for gold midsummer, then if we manage to stay above the low from Nov it is very bullish for Gold. Cycles tells us no big turn around until May/June next year.

  9. Li

    Nice pickup on gold. The rectangle pattern target could take it as high as 1258, although I expect it to get no further than 1224.

    Miners surged today, and I am shorting them for a (hopefully) easy 5% gain as they consolidate tomorrow.

  10. Jonathan

    Be patient, the (stock) market is holding up very well, it’s waiting for the Bund to bottom.

  11. Frank

    After years of doing this, an announcement like this must come right from the bones – pure conditioned impulse! I still think it’s going down, but it has to go soon. We are really in a small box.

  12. Al

    Enjoy reading the comments from you guys. It’s a public forum so I’m reluctant to say much, but i will say this. Be very careful reading too much into anything you see this week. This is options ex and shenanigans by the big institutions are played all week to whip the small investor all over the place.

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