I am going to be contrarian on this forum today: everybody here is convinced the dollar is just having a temporary pause, based on cycles theory. But there are always other theories around as you know. One of them is the reversal pattern. And, within the reversal patterns, one is called “railtrack reversal”, which are documented as very reliable if coming at the end of a straightforward trend. Even more if it is on a monthly scale, and again more if it is confirmed by a lower low. Then the objective of the reversal is the area where the previous trend started. That would be around…80. Somewhere in the summer/fall if market symmetry works:
Every chart makes some pattern in retrospect. Too bad retrospect is useless in trading.
True, but the key going forward. Is the US
the catalyst for dollar to move is Chinese yuan in June
My 2 cents on the dollar.
Since the ECB QE is on going, one would think the dollar should still have a lot to rise. I doubt it, I doubt the Fed would let this happen. I think the dollar probably doesn’t have much further to rise. Technically, the spec position is still pretty big, I suspect it need to be cleared up before the dollar can try rise again.
dollar had same spike in 2008 and in 2010 and in both cases it fall down hard
return to rise would be first such a case since last bull so im also not completly sure that dollar has still one big leg up to go. especially that almost EVERYONE is expecting that euro will fall to 1:1 with dollar (because of euroQE etc)
Interestingly, the S&P500 OI has been steadily declining in this 6-yr bull.
Enjoy most, the SP500 index prog chart.
According to Martin Armstrong the dollar is going to SKYROCKET
I’m of the same opinion. Just waiting for the counter trend move to complete and the secular trend to resume.
there’s a rebound on dollar but +0.4% its not impressive, looks rather like small rebound after last week’s drop than “rally” after bottoming, what do you think Gary ?
The dollar is in the timing band for a cycle low. It may be forming here.
what do you guys think about this: http://postimg.org/image/6i88mnell/
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