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A word of caution. Don’t try to trade against the intermediate trend. The surprises can and often do come in that direction. So don’t short the dollar. Don’t go long the euro, and don’t go long gold. Stick with the larger trends. If we do get corrective moves then use that to get long the dollar, short the euro, and best to just stay on the sidelines in gold.
How about stocks
There is only one viable strategy to trade stocks right now. It’s the money back guarantee trade that I have on in the SMT portfolio.
Gary, do you think NG coming to 2$?
I really have no idea. We took profits on our NAT gas position on May 19th when the dollar turned. At the moment I don’t have any plans to buy it back.
The $USD topped in early March, followed by a double top confirmation in early April. The chart could not be more obvious. It was also followed my several confirmations breaking support levels easily as it fell to 93 on the index. The $USD is in a bear market and the rally of the past couple weeks is nothing more than a bear market rally that will likely end before reaching $98.50 on the index. Overbought conditions have already begun. The $USD will be near .80 in roughly 6 months, which means that your also wrong about gold.
It’s unlikely in my opinion that the dollar is in a bear market. The double top is more likley the start of a triangle consolidation.
It has completed an intermediate cycle low and will be testing 100 soon. It will take a while to breakout above 100 but it’s going to eventually. The Fed is going to have to start QE4 before the dollar bull is over.
Dollar Index will hit 120 if not much higher…will take awhile, many many many months but will get there…initial target 103ish then a good correction then upwards and onwards.