18 thoughts on “CHARTS OF THE DAY

  1. Bob UK

    Good advice Gary, but I suspect that the goldbugs will make a little dolls of you and begin sticking pins in them for daring to state such a thing 🙂

  2. Stefan

    I am reading a book from 1948 and from the chapter “Corrective trends” the gold chart is in a picture perfect intermediate bear trend ready to reverse, from the book:

    “However, and this is of considerable practical importance, the very last intermediate downswing in a major bear market, that is, the last primary move that leads to the final, long-term bottom, is usually cleaner, more regular, and less precipitous – in other words, it is a more nearly normal trend of the sort we expect to find in most intermediate advances in a bull market (except that it slants down instead of up). This interesting habit is, as we said, of practical importance. Knowing it, we have an additional and very useful clue to the end of a bear market”

    Just brilliant, and here is another one:

    “When, after a major bear trend has proceeded fore some time and distance, and has experienced at least one panic sell off, it then goes off in another but less active and more orderly decline, and this decline develops and follows a good trendline. Watch it closely. If this intermediate holds to its steady and not too step downward course – if its trendline is contacted several times by minor rallies – if it produces a fairly consistent channel, and prices do not “fall out of bed” down through its parallel return line, then the eventual upside penetration of this trendline may well signal a Major Turn, that is, the inception of a new Bull Market.”

    How about to educate yourself Gary? They knew back in the 40’s that a bear market doesn’t need a breakdown to reverse!!!

    Ok fair enough, if I am wrong and gold breaks down to $1000 later this year I am going to apologize, but for now I am in favor for an up move in gold.

    1. Roy McIntyre

      That theory should be easy to test, Stefan. Have you? I mean, just pick a handful of bear market bottoms (any 25 year chart of the broad market will show you enough) and see if the steep part of the decline was the beginning of the bear or the end. Rounded tops and V-shaped bottoms is the stereotype… slow declines to begin with and then rapid as panic sets in, with huge buying when prices reach some attractive level.

    2. gary Post author

      I’m looking for a panic 8 year cycle low to finish off this bear. The last one occurred in 2008. We need something similar. And FWIW gold doesn’t trade like other asset markets. It’s much more emotional so it isn’t likely to bottom like oil or stocks.

  3. Mr. Edge

    Gold will tank alright. Why you ask? Because when things start falling apart, the gold card is the last card TPTB will be holding and they will use it.

  4. Bill in Tokyo

    Love this post!

    So laughing aside, what do we look for to eventually get in?

    1. gary Post author

      At least a test of $1000… and a sign that all the gold bugs have given up. Obviously that isn’t even close to happening yet as there are still hundreds of calls for the bottom. That needs to end and we probably need to go through a bankruptcy phase in miners to clean out the sector. That also hasn’t happened yet.

  5. Jay

    Wait until Peter Schiff cries real tears and apologizes for being wrong about Gold? 🙂

  6. gary Post author

    The tears have been shed by traders duped into the buy and hold mantra. There will be a time to buy and hold gold but it’s not here yet.

    Besides gold still has a final run to at least $5000. Is it really a big deal if one misses the first month or two?

    No of course not. The whole” train is leaving the station” BS is nothing more than wishful thinking by gold bugs that have been taking loss after loss for 4 years. Gold hasn’t even managed to make a higher intermediate high yet. Until it does gold bugs are just chasing their tails trying to call a bottom.

    Buy and hold right now is almost guaranteed to deliver at least a 20% drawdown later this year when gold moves down into its 8 year cycle low and tests $1000.

    Major bear markets almost always have a bankruptcy phase to clean out the sector. The miners have not gone through that phase yet….

    While we wait we are making good money in the stock market and energy markets.

  7. Tom

    Actually some of the mining charts don’t look too bad here. ETF money flows show inflows to international sectors which are also good for the miners. Could get interesting.

    1. gary Post author

      If the miners can just stay in a consolidation range during the next leg down it would be a good sign that a final bottom is approaching.

  8. JoshuaF

    Those who hope gold will fall to 1000 will be disappointed. The next few months will be sideways with a very slight upward bias. Anyway, why bother with the metal when the stocks have disconnected? Stocks go up on days gold falls. What does that say? You can’t trust any chart pattern in a manipulated market. The banksters can paint a pattern to fool everyone, but they can’t walk all over tonnage from India and China. The West are only buying ounces.

    1. JoshuaF

      Like look at the start of this year and see Newmont (NEM). Gold then trading where it is now. NEM up about 50%. Get it? Put up a HUI:Gold, GG:Gold, GDX:Gold or NEM:Gold chart for example. Stocks that have fallen 85% vs. Gold are a buy IMO. You have to figure out if they will go bankrupt.. NEM I can’t see going bankrupt soon!

        1. JoshuaF

          If a company like NEM can make a profit at 1000 gold, it will not go bankrupt. Some companies have already cut away all the dead wood and are lean and mean. They will do very nicely now even while gold falls and will really accelerate if gold rises. That dead wood cutting is complete now with some companies. Those who wait for gold to go to 1000 will miss out, and definitely so if gold just trades sideways which is most likely. Parabola demanders and collapse expecters will not get what they hope for, and they will be out of the market during the best part of the moves

  9. ChrisBoshen

    Gary, sorry to disappoint you but you are part of the problem with your 5000$/Oz calls!

    When you throw in the towel and abandon your 5K gold calls this is when we probably hit the bottom in this market.

    Will 200$/Oz do?

    gary Post author
    May 4, 2015 at 12:11 am
    At least a test of $1000… and a sign that all the gold bugs have given up. Obviously that isn’t even close to happening yet as there are still hundreds of calls for the bottom. That needs to end and we probably need to go through a bankruptcy phase in miners to clean out the sector. That also hasn’t happened yet.

Comments are closed.