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Wow! That escalated quickly.
From Martin Armstrong’s blog a few hrs ago:
“Gold has opened the week in Asia with a bang – down nearly $30. This has come right on target for our Panic Cycle this week. Gold is headed sharply lower and it will break the $1,000 level and everyone will then start to look for $600-700 area.”
See http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong_economics_blog
Do not worry, this is not the first time when he is wrong.
was wondering about that! figures … that’s why I just follow the charts
The right answer – do not trust anyone just follow the charts:)
I think gold will move below 1000 but not now, first a rally 20%-30%
Armstrong has lost a lot of credibility trying to maintain gold isn’t manipulated, when it clearly is.
I remember the euro bottomed right when he was calling for parity.
I don’t think he says gold isn’t manipulated. He says that short term manipulation has no impact on longer term cycles.
Bounced back a bit at 7.54 BST.
Although I think gold is headed for $1000 and below I’m not sure if this is that move. Silver has barely fallen, if it had fallen say 6% it would be more indicative of a panic sell. Too early to tell…
And the dollar is going down, the top was at 98.18
A nice sub-bear rally in gold&silver … HUI is oversold big time
No, way. This is what has been necessary to reload the bull. Pls mind that gold has just struck a new low while CRB index is still away from its YCL.
Gold will start going up anew from here. This view is in line with contrarian approach (very effective at price extremes) and with the fundamental set-up of inflationary expectations which are on the rise compared as to what they were 1y ago.
Both gold and CRB index will form swing lows next week (thus ICLs this week) for their respective intermediary cycles, thus signaling the new intermediary cycle and, at a higher scale, the RISE IN INFLATIONARY EXPECTATIONS.
CRB index has to go to some 250 at least to provoke the crash in T-bonds requisite to allow for the stock market crash commented by Gary before.
More time will be required to allow for this stream of events to occur, so that while I concur with Gary’s view, I think crude oil and CRB index will go much higher and that the top of the stock market may come later into the winter (December).
People are speculating online that it was a hedge fund that dumped all the gold this morning.
I suppose a question now is how much more they might have to get rid of, or whether this kind of thing might lead other funds to also dispose of their gold/silver holdings?
If a hedge fund was shorting gold, doing so in huge size in over-night trading makes sense. Pound gold lower. If however, the hedge fund was long gold, it makes no sense at all.
Silver recovered, but miners are still crushed in premarket. I bought more physical silver last night, but I’d wait for gold to surge through 1130 before attempting any bounce play with GDX/GDXJ. That is strong resistance until proven otherwise.
Gary – You’ve done some great analysis especially lately, But I have to say again TIMING MATTERS and catching falling knives is not good. You helped us get 40-plus move down in gold when gold bugs missed it.
But you got in a hundred points early on GLD/GDX equivalent – NOT a trade-off you should want.
Timing matters. The dead cat bounce in GDX is enticing – I get it. But you saw a washout last week that clearly was not there and still isn’t.
Just asking you to remember the primary bankruptcy phase down after the dead cat bounce in gold is over. It will be epically lower between now and thanksgiving than it is now – much less after dead cat bounce.
Help us time THAT drop. You are SO good at it!
Just worry if you drink too much gold bug Kool-Aid you may/we may miss some of the ride!!
The GDX crash after DCB will be much bigger than the dead cat bounce that will form maybe next week. That is for sure!
WE STILL HAVE MORE THAN HALF OUR POWDER DRY WAITING FOR THE FINAL BOTTOM. WE ARE IN GREAT SHAPE. THE BOUNCE OUT OF THIS BOTTOM IS GOING TO BE HUGE.
How many days of the bloodbath phase are there typically? I’m looking for a down open tomorrow to buy.
Wait for the swing. Don’t try to pick a bottom.
Gary is right folks, you NEED to wait for the swing. Otherwise you could potentially suffer huge drawdowns.
At $1100 we bounced of a very strong support, the trendline goes back into the gold high in the seventies. We could brake the trendline but then there woulde be a sharp reversal to the upside.
So from here it’s UP 🙂
Sorry what strong support can you see? There has been a rebound but I wouldn’t call it strong.
The trendline is very strong support it would take a lot of effort to brake it. No the strong reversal bounce is not here yet, give it a couple of weeks.
One thing I’ve been noticing lately is how much debt many (most?) of the miners have. Makes me think that more will go bankrupt as Gary said a few mos back.
ABX rev 10B cash 2B debt 12B
GG rev 3.5B cash 0.5B debt 4B
NEM 7.5B cash 2.6B debt 6.5B
SLW rev 585M cash 88M debt 800M
FNV rev 500M cash 600M debt 0 <—
Some of the juniors financials are better than those big boys.
They ALL seem to be up to their eyeballs in debt. Worrying.
They are deeply in debt …. most CEO’s of the Gold Mining Co’s don’t understand their own product – they are debt junkies rolling around in excessively risky ventures.
decimation
shoulda bought GoPro
*no position
The big blue missed rev, beat profit, down 4% after the report. Used to be a bellwether stock, now only (!) the 25th holding of SPY.
Just wanted to add a speck of hope …check out GSS.
Maybe a few more will look like that at the end of the week : )
Record high volume in GDX. 157 million shares traded. Has everyone finally already jumped out of the building yet? 😉
Actually 169 million shares traded.
Let me guess…there is a bollinger band crash trade on the table.