Let’s see if the gap down will remain for AAPL tomorrow morning. You know they only allow gap-up but not gap-down.
You very well could be right. Consider also the relationship between the NYSE A/D Line and the Dow. The A/D Line made an all-time high on April 24, 2015. It has rounded over and been in a down trend since then; albeit with three distinct “up moves” in this over-all declining trend. Peter Eliades has long argued for the possibility of an important peak in the A/D Line in the spring of 2015 leading to a wijndow extending from March 31, 2015 through October 31, 2015 for a FINAL cyclical bull market top. His argument is fascinating, but I cannot share it with you here as his work is copyrighted. But if the A/D line top of April 24, 2015 holds as well as the May 19 all time high in the Dow, the next thing to watch for is a DOW THEORY SELL SIGNAL, which we are more than likely to get in an October crash. It’s possible that the top you are now calling for is the FINAL cyclical bull market top and that QE 4 will not be able to pull the stock market out of an October tailspin.
Keep in mind, that at major price highs,
the NY A/D line often, crests well before the
actual price high in the index…The A/D
crest late April 2015, the gave the SP500
high, 5/20 a big up nonconfirmation signal.
That was followed by 5 waves down in the
A/D line into the July 7-13 low.
Best guess this is a counter trend bounce
in the A/D, allowing the SP some upside
temp relief. That’s my take…..
Oh, and my apology. If that was what you were
You made a connection I should have made that the A/D Line often peaks prior to peaks in the popular indices. The history of the tech bubble is that the A/D Line peaked, then the DJIA/S&P 500 peaked in January 2000 and then the NASDAQ peaked in March 2000. Again, in the current set-up, we got the A/D Line peaking in April, the DJIA/S&P500 in May and the NAS in July. Interesting, isn’t it? I should have also mentioned that I am aware that when Gary writes of a current stock market top, he is referring to this month’s action as he sees choppy, but lower,trading ahead of an October crash. I’m simply suggesting the possibility that we may NOT get a final bubble phase in stocks, that the final top may already be in the rear-view mirror and that an October crash may trigger the DOW THEORY SELL SIGNAL which not even QE4 may work to pull the market out of a tailspin. Just a theory. I’ll watch the support levels and cyclical patterns.
reply to BCJ…Yes, well that is where the rubber meets
the road, as they say. My old style TA suggest that
we have seen the SP high at 2134, “but” if there to be
a big enough sell off – and the 2044 low mid-July may
qualify for a basis, or an oversold enough low, to suggest
a new price high maybe in the offering. This is where
Mr. Savage timing comes into play. If I review the 1987
period. There was a high on 5/20/87 at 277, which is
the same month and day of the 2015 high….Yikes.
Them we saw the final price high 8/26/87 at 337.89.
So what is my point? There is enough time, between now and
mid-August 2015, to see 1 more new high, and maybe
well above 2134. Should this all fall into place. Time
wise. There then could be the crash, aka 1987 in
Sept, or better still October 2015….
How’s that for a scenario ????
Bud E Fox I
Just remember; If one of the major exchanges gets shut down for the day – it’s just a software glitch, cough, cough.
So much for bottoms on massive volume. New lows on GDX Today.
Today is the bottom. It will play out similar to the bottom in March.
Waiting for another flush to add more miners.
I am no expert but I can’t help thinking that we have a bit further down to go yet.
jnug can always go to zero..like anv,mcp…wlt
Since JNUG is a 3x ETF, if the underlining tracking security falls more than 33% in one day it will go to zero. That risk is defined in all 3x perspectives.
Careful. You not showing the big picture that Rambus1 is painting.
HUI potentially losing 60% to 75% of it’s value FROM THE CURRENT PRICE is what concerns me. Hopefully we see that dead-cat countertrend rally happen first!
I know, I read Plunger’s latest stuff. I’m playing for a sharp bounce into August, like Gary is suggesting as well, and hope to get out before the final takedown.
Mr. Savage, thank you for your
I think the limb may be lost here.
The market is in take off mode.
More like, the market is ready to descend.
Is every little up-tick in GDX is a shorting opportunity until proven otherwise? Unreal!
Problem with GDX is it could get dragged down even further if the overall market tanks.
No bottom yet in GDX … hourly chart is sideways … wouldn’t be surprised to see another day or 2 of down before we bottom … would be nice if it’s a divergent low. Too early to take a swing trade position, for me anyways.
The market is broken. It’s not a market of price discovery and supply and demand based on the earnings of the underlying assets. It’s a manipulated casino now, with the Central banks and Wall Street pushing it and propping it with every trick they can muster. Once you understand that, then the rest gets a bit easier. The market has been pushed to nosebleed levels on the heels of trillions in QE, and such games as mark to model accounting and companies borrowing money to buy back a trillion dollars worth of their own stock.
Now it is evident that the powers that be want to keep the market as buoyant as they can. Why? Because it helps their narrative that the economy is good. They haven’t been able to produce jobs, or new company expansion or retail sales or anything else. But they’ve been great at pushing the market higher for the illusion of growth. With that in mind, they’ve been throwing the kitchen sink at keeping things “up”.
Yet since March of this year, it has “run out of gas” and we’ve been trading sideways since. We roll downhill for a while, find a base and run up and smack our head into the all-time high level. That level holds as resistance and down we go again. Over and over, wash/rinse/repeat.
Until we break out over 2130 and “hold” the breakout, it’s really dangerous to be holding things long in here. We’re at the upper range so to speak. But it’s likewise dangerous to try and go short, unless you can be extremely nimble because the drops have been fast and short lived before the next bounce.
In this situation I would wait for the market crash, as in 2008, and then get in PM’s and mining shares. It seems to me that we are just walking the same trail and the Fed will do exactly the same moves i.e. banks rescue and new hyper QE.
This is an extension of the exchange with Bud. Yes, your ’87 scenario is in play. You mention the 2044 level in the S&P 500. I DO think that that level is key. A bounce off that level could reach a new all time high. But if, over the next 4-6 week, we break below that level and keep going lower, we could be “celebrating” October in August/September. To re-cap, with the A/D Line in sick-shape and with the DOW NON-CONFIRMATION in play since last December, we very well could be on our way to taking out the lows of last October which would deliver a DOW THEORY SELL SIGNAL.
I still see the possibility that QE4 could deliver a bubble phase as Gary has been talking about for a long time. But bull markets don’t always end with bubbles. So, QE4 could deliver a market “dead cat bounce” and then the market rolls over. If that is the case, in the words of an old cartoon character: “That’s all, folks!”
Maybe they shut down the market after QE4 fails…and then confiscate everyone’s gold as well?
There is no way to see a top as early as OCT as long as CRB index is falling and driving t-bonds’ yields lower as it is now happening.
The stream of events is :
– CRB index has to first run its course into its ICL –> the soonest would be this week, i.e. week 17 in the current IC, pretty much too soon, more likely next week to have a 18-week IC; this will lead bond yields lower (and TLT higher. mind that TLT is for the first time in 2 months closing above its 60dma – a bullish signal for bonds and stocks)
– CRB to start its new IC and grow from maybe as low as 200 to some 250 in order to produce havoc on bond markets and prompt FED to raise ST interest rates.
All this will take time, plenty of time for stocks to produce new highs.
The Dow will thus have the time to run higher into the winter and produce a bull trap.
Gold price is acting just fine according to the rules set by mother nature and mother nature says we still have 43months left in this bear. Based on logic and math from nature.
Dollar hit the upper trendline resistance and is heading down a possible bear rally in gold and silver for a couple of weeks.
S&P has a devine resistance at 2130ish and a very smart analyst said that we are approaching a pivot for global stockmarkets beyond 2nd of August. Is it a break to the upside or downside …
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