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Gary, why do you disagree with this guy on trying to game a final bottom for gold/silver?
Sorry, forgot to post link.
http://peterlbrandt.com/even-if-gold-and-silver-are-driving-to-the-final-low-so-what-it-still-is-no-reason-to-be-long/
The link was blocked???
Keep in mind I don’t really think this will be the final low, just an intermediate degree bottom and nice bounce before one more leg down into the final low later this year or early next year.
At this point, everyone long better hope Goldman is right about the 1050 low in Gold this year. It feels and looks like everyone is about to give up and send Gold well under 1000 and maybe even 900 or 800.
This always happens during the final days of an intermediate bloodbath phase. Traders emotions take control and they start to imagine all kinds of unrealistic scenarios.
Gold is not going significantly below 1033. Not during this intermediate cycle. It may during the next though.
The well respected Trader Dans thoughts.
This put things into perspective.
http://traderdan.com/?p=6018
He does point out that the gold price / HUI ratio is such that either the mining stocks have to now soar or that the price of gold has to fall lower.
His comments sounds a little too rational to me for the gold market 🙂 but thanks for posting BUD will keep an eye on his analysis Thing that I’m always reticent of is the louder the calls become that something is going to definitely happen the more likely it doesn’t. Every man and his dog now is expecting gold to be at $1040 ish and then go lower…….. hmmm.
Until we see the low negated from Wednesday on close it isn’t a given for me. The Commercials from Tuesday (which means they could have been removing right until Friday further) again saw a huge reduction in short contracts that I can remember for a long time and they are always early, the only guys that matter there, and rarely wrong. I read hedge funds are also now short for the first time!
Just my humble two penneth worth guys.
I do wonder whether the big boys are trying to force a final bottom in the metals now this summer. Knock doown the price to drive the diehard gold bugs out and then, once they have the market cornered, onwards and upwards.
Randgold appears to be looking up rather than down at the moment.
New low in GDX.
Massive volume bottom failed again.
A valid warning for those of us expecting big bounce? ? http://cdn.meme.am/instances2/500x/892797.jpg
Gary,
This has been painful in the miners. Please reassure me this is the most positive trade you have had this year with greatest conviction.
also, why are the times of the postings messed up?
GF
I agree that we are near lows for a short term rally.
I also agree that you usually get High Volume at lows, but…
You can have a very high volume down day, and then undercut it on light volume, and still get the high volume low. The high volume low shows up on a weekly chart.
This is what we have now, looks a lot like Nov 2014 lows.
http://www.screencast.com/t/jbpTfZhFo
What an absolutely nutty day. I survived the miner carnage with some hedges and only a 1% drawdown thankfully. Released the kraken – let em fly. Hopefully the bottom is in.
I’m pretty sure that gold will fall below $1050 this time around. Keep in mind that the 50% fib retracement is only a rough target of a support.
The US Dollar, since 3/21. Has made 3 descending price highs.
Most recent 7/20 98.15. While the Gold market has been getting
hit hard with a raising dollar, the Dollar pattern, at least
for the short term has started to turn lower – maybe to a 94.24
Low, next week.
In the short term, that is having some putting in a minor low
in Gold. I am not out of Gold, short term until I see
a resolution, to what looks like a wedge pattern has formed,
and ot a break below 94….IMHO…