I love the smell of ES futures manipulation in the morning.
Fed will raise rates in September. All of the market, from financials to the metals are pricing in that condition. Anyone who doesn’t see that is chart blind.
Hey, some blind people see better than those with sight.
If the Fed raises rates, I read that they won’t be able to pay to interest on our massive debt. If they raise rates, they’ll probably have to do something like QE4 just to make the increased payments.
They are stuck.
Just looked at a daily chart of TBT. This month we made both a lower high, and now a lower low (as of yesterday). The chart shows me that TBT is going down.
GDXJ is down 89% since it’s peak. Here are the average sector returns for a three year hold when a sector is down 80% and 90%:
Could GDXJ go down another 20% -30% before we bottom…. most definitely.
Would I want to short here for the next three years? Not unless I was suicidal.
On GDX, I expected a V up after the V down. Instead we’re getting sideways, for 6 days now. Makes me think that another whoosh down is on the table. I’m still in cash.
Bill, I agree but look at GDXJ last March, exactly the same consolidation before a push higher. Granted, it was only a bear rally, and I think we will have the same here, a new bearish rally as forecasted by Gary before a new low. However I don’t think this will be a much lower low than now; perhaps re-testing current low after a bearish rally. Just speculating…
Yes it does look similar. And (I can’t believe I’m saying this…), cycles seem to be working for gold, and are identifying this as a likely ICL. Plus there’s sentiment. Gary covered all on Al Korelin’s show today.
Link is here: http://www.kereport.com/2015/07/28/detailed-call-intermediate-cycle-bottom-gold/
All’s I’m saying is, after this V crash melt down, I thought we’d melt up, but we didn’t (so far). I’m glad for it, as I hate gaps and melt downs/ups. Hopefully Gary’s right and this is just a really firm bottom being hammered out, so that if/when we rise, it will be a low risk high profit trade.
Just I still remember the feeling of a week ago Sunday (my Monday…) when gold went off a cliff, with some huge number of artificial (i.e. non-physical) contracts. Then I read the GS blub about more to come. It has me pretty nervous. Could happen again. Is GS done yet? Will they ever be done? Gotta expect it will happen again. My trust in natural market forces is pretty much gone. It’s all rigged. The house wins.
The market could move lower again. The trade volume is not enough to convince me the tide has turned
Might be just a dead cat bounce in a downtrend. Do not get excited just yet.
That’s why I’m only 20% in miners with a stop at the Friday lows. We’re used to dovish Fed minutes and 10%+ rocket launches now, but we could see a shocker rate hike and another panic selloff to sub 1000 gold quickly. That is very unlikely but would be a “bet the house” type of trade, if it occurred, in my opinion.
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